FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 PT J AU Wymbs, C TI Telecommunications, an instrument of radical change for both the 20th and 21st centuries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology; telecommunications; historical analysis; Kondratieff waves ID LONG WAVES; TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATIONS AB This paper compares and contrasts how entrepreneurial disruptions, firm innovations, foreign market expansion and government restraint interact during three distinct periods to create and dramatically expand one service-telecommunications. Because this service has the ability to help business overcome the frictions of time, it has become both an enabling and lead technology in the dramatic economic growth. Telecommunications was instrumental in ushering in the formation of the third Kondratieff long Wave upswing at the beginning of the 20th century and appears to be important in jumpstarting the emerging information economy in the fifth Kondratieff Wave at the end of the 20th century. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 CUNY Bernard M Baruch Coll, Zicklin Sch Business, Dept Mkt, New York, NY 10010 USA. RP Wymbs, C, CUNY Bernard M Baruch Coll, Zicklin Sch Business, Dept Mkt, B12-240,1 Bernard Baruch Way, New York, NY 10010 USA. EM Clifford_Wymbs@baruch.cuny.edu CR 2000, WORLD INVESTMENT REP *DEP COMM, 1960, US BUS INV FOR COUNT *NAT CIV FED, 1907, MUN PRIV OP PUBL U 1, V1, P12 ADLER N, 1997, INT DIMENSIONS ORG B AYRES RU, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P1 AYRES RU, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P111 BARNEY J, 1991, J MANAGE, V17, P99 BOURGEOIS LL, ACAD MANAGE J, V4, P443 BROOKS J, 1976, TELEPHONE 1 100 YEAR BURNS TS, 1974, TALES ITT INSIDERS R CANTWELL J, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA CASON M, 1997, BUSINESS EC HIST, V26, P811 COHEN JE, 1992, POLITICS TELECOMMUNI DAVENI RA, 1999, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V40, P127 DENZIN NK, 1978, RES ACT THEORETICAL DICKEN P, 1998, GLOBAL SHIFT DUNNING JH, 1988, MULTINATIONALS TECHN DUNNING JH, 1993, MULTINATIONAL ENTERP DUNNING JH, 2001, INT J EC BUSINESS, V8, P273 EBBERS B, C SPAN DISCUSSION FO FAULHABER G, 1987, TELECOMMUNICATIONS T FORRESTER JN, 1979, MANAG REV, V39, P16 FREEMAN C, 1974, EC IND INNOVATION FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC FREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P38 GATES W, 1999, BUSINESS SPEED THOUG GERSICK CJG, 1991, ACAD MANAGE REV, V16, P10 GOMESCASSERES B, 1990, J INT BUS STUD, P1 GOMEZIBANEZ JA, 1999, FUTURE PRIVATE INFRA GRAHAM EM, 1975, THESIS HARVARD U JONES G, 1996, EVOLUTION INT BUSINE JONES G, 1996, EVOLUTION PATTERNS C KIRZNER IM, 1979, PERCEPTION OPPORTUNI KLEINKNECHT A, 1987, INNOVATION PATTERNS KOBRIN S, 1988, MANAG INT REV, V28, P72 KOBRIN SJ, 1997, GOVT GLOBALIZATION I, P146 KONDRATIEFF ND, 1935, REV ECON STAT, V17, P105 LEE TW, 1999, J VOCAT BEHAV, V55, P161 LEE TW, 1999, USING QUALITATIVE ME LESSIG L, 1999, CODE OTHER LAWS CYBE LEWIS C, 1938, AM STAKE INT INVESTM LINSTONE HA, 2002, FUTURES, V34, P317 LIPSEY RG, 1997, GOVT GLOBALIZATION I, P73 MCDONALD F, 1962, INSULL MENSCH G, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY MINTZBERG H, 1979, ADM SCI Q, V24, P582 MORAN TH, 1977, J CONTEMP BUS, V6, P121 NELSON R, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PALENZUELA VA, 1999, MULTINATL BUS REV, V7, P62 PEREZ C, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P441 PHILLIPS CF, 1993, REGULATION PUBLIC UT ROSS J, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P274 SCHUMPETER J, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SCHUMPETER J, 1943, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SISAYE S, 1998, LEADERSH ORGAN DEV J, V19, P231 TEECE DJ, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V18, P509 VERNON R, 1971, SOVEREIGNTY BAY MULT WEICK KE, 1989, ACAD MANAGE REV, V14, P516 WEIS DH, 1999, FUTURES, V28, P42 WELLS LT, 1977, NEGOTIATING 3 WORLD, V55, P72 WESSON TJ, 1993, THESIS HARVARD U CAM WILKINS M, 1974, MATURING MULTINATION WYMBS C, 1999, THESIS RUTGERS U NEW WYMBS C, 2000, INFORMATION INNOVATI WYMBS C, 2002, J HIGH TECHNOLOGY MA, V13, P87 NR 65 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 71 IS 7 BP 685 EP 703 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 844MD UT ISI:000223161500003 ER PT J AU Goswami, D Karmeshu TI Study of population heterogeneity in innovation diffusion model: Estimation based on simulated annealing SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation diffusion; population variability; random differential equation; nonlinear least square; simulated annealing; unimodal and multimodal patterns ID OPTIMIZATION; SADDLE AB Parameter variability randomness in diffusion (PVRD) models based on random differential equations have recently been developed to study stochastic evolution of adopters. Analysis of such models is found to generate multimodal life cycle patterns (or intervening slumps) besides the conventional unimodal pattern. Application of these models to real data sets necessitate estimation of parameters of the model. Nonlinear least squares estimation problem is formulated to deal with the minimization of high-dimensional cost function. Using the simulated annealing (SA) framework, effectiveness of the estimation approach and the fitting algorithm is demonstrated in terms of "fit statistics. " An important finding from empirical studies-reveal that even in unimodal life cycle patterns, parameters of innovation diffusion process are found to possess considerable variability. This finding amply demonstrates the presence of heterogeneity on account of population variability. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Comp & Syst Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. Univ Delhi, Dept Stat, Delhi 110007, India. RP Karmeshu, Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Comp & Syst Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. EM dgoswami@sify.com karmeshu@mail.jnu.ac.in CR AARTS EHL, 1989, WILEY INTERSCIENCE D ABELL ML, 1999, STAT MATH BARTHOLOMEW DJ, 1982, WILEY SERIES PROBABI BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BEIFUSS S, 1997, J OPTIMIZ THEORY APP, V92, P225 BELLOMO N, 1992, MATH ITS APPL, V82 BROOKS SP, 1995, STATISTICIAN, V44, P241 COX W, 1969, J BUS, V40, P382 GOLDENBERG J, 2002, J MARKETING, V66, P1 GOSWAMI D, 2003, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V62, P403 INGBER AL, ADAPTIVE SIMULATED A INGBER L, 1989, MATH COMPUT MODEL, V12, P967 INGBER L, 1993, MATH COMPUT MODEL, V18, P29 INGBER L, 1996, CONTROL CYBERN, V25, P33 JAIN DC, 1992, MARKETING MIX EFFECT JEULAND AP, 1987, 45 U CHIC GRAD SCH B JOHNSON ME, 1988, AM J MATH MANAGEMENT, V8 KALISH S, 1985, MANAGE SCI, V31, P1569 KARMESHU D, 1998, INT C SYST DYN IIT K KARMESHU D, 2001, IMA J MANAG MATH, V12, P107 KIRKPATRICK S, 1983, SCIENCE, V220, P671 MAHAJAN V, 1985, QUANTITATIVE APPL SO, V48 MAHAJAN V, 1986, SERIES ECONOMETRICS, V5, P203 MAHAJAN V, 1993, HDB OPERATIONS RES M, V5, P349 MAHAJAN V, 1995, MARK SCI, P111 METROPOLIS N, 1953, J CHEM PHYS, V21, P1087 MITRA D, 1986, ADV APPL PROBAB, V18, P747 MOHAN C, 1999, COMPUT OPTIM APPL, V14, P103 OLSON J, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P385 ROSENBLUETH E, 1975, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V72, P3812 NR 30 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 71 IS 7 BP 705 EP 722 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 844MD UT ISI:000223161500004 ER PT J AU Watanabe, C Kondo, R Ouchi, N Wei, HH Griffy-Brown, C TI Institutional elasticity as a significant driver of IT functionality development SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE information society; IT functionality; epidemic behavior; self-propagation; institutional elasticity ID DIFFUSION-MODELS; TECHNOLOGY; INNOVATION AB Institutions drive innovation and stimulate broad diffusion. Not surprisingly, national systems of innovation are influenced by their institutional flexibility in response to changing market conditions. As nations move from industrial to information-based societies, a key factor governing institutional "elasticity" is how institutions integrate information technology (IT). Since IT functionality is intimately connected with institutional dynamics, unlike simple manufactured products such as refrigerators, IT's specific functionality is formed through dynamic interaction with institutional systems. Consequently, institutional elasticity is a critical factor in the functionality of IT and its subsequent self-propagating behavior. This paper analyzes the mechanism of IT functionality development, with special attention to the interaction of the technology,with institutional systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Ind Engn & Management, Meguro Ku, Tokyo 1528552, Japan. Minist Publ Management Home Affairs Posts & Telec, Broadcasting Technol Div, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008926, Japan. Pepperdine Univ, Graziadio Sch Business, Dept Decis & Informat Syst, Culver City, CA 90292 USA. RP Watanabe, C, Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Ind Engn & Management, Meguro Ku, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Tokyo 1528552, Japan. EM chihiro@me.titech.ac.jp CR *EC PLANN AG, 2000, WHIT PAP JAP EC *MPT, 2000, WHIT PAP 2000 COMM J *OECD, 1997, STI REV *OECD, 2001, NEW EC HYP *TEL COMM, 2000, INF VIS 21 CENT *US DOC, 2000, DIG EC *US DOC, 2000, FALL NET DIG INCL AGGARWAL R, 1996, INT EXECUTIVE, V38, P9 BINSWANGER H, 1978, INDUCED INNOVATION T CAIRNCROSS F, 1997, DEATH DISTANCE COOMBS R, 1987, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 KODAMA F, 2000, P 1 WORLD C PROD OP, P99 MACRAE H, 1995, WORLD 2020 POWER CUL MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1963, REV ECON STAT, V45, P348 MANSFIELD E, 1969, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARCHETTI C, 1976, 2 STAT REP IIASA PRO, P203 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 IIASA MCMILLAN C, 1996, JAPANESE IND SYSTEM METCALFE JS, 1970, MANCHESTER SCH EC SO, V2, P145 MEYER P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P89 MEYER PS, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P209 MOSCHELLA DC, 1997, WAVES POWER NADIRI MA, 1981, STRUCTURE PRODUCTION, P219 NELSON RR, 2001, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V44, P31 NORRIS K, 1973, EC RES TECHNOLOGY OSTER SM, 1994, MODERN COMPETITIVE A ROGERS EM, 1962, DIFFUSION INNOVATION RUTTAN VW, 2001, TECHNOLOGY GROWTH DE SCHELLING TC, 1998, SOCIAL MECH ANAL APP, P32 SHARIF MN, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 WATANABE C, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P127 WATANABE C, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P719 WATANABE C, 2001, TECHNOVATION, V21, P281 WATANABE C, 2002, IN PRESS J SCI POLIC WATANABE C, 2002, IN PRESS TECHNOVATIO NR 37 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 71 IS 7 BP 723 EP 750 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 844MD UT ISI:000223161500005 ER PT J AU Conceicao, P Heitor, MV Sirilli, G Wilson, R TI The "swing of the pendulum" from public to market support for science and technology: Is the US leading the way? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE public support; market support; science and technology; United States ID KNOWLEDGE; ECONOMICS; POLICY AB The structure and financing of science and technology activities are undergoing a slow, but profound, change. This change can be briefly characterized as a shift from relying and supporting public science to a stronger emphasis on "market-based" incentives for science and technology. In this paper we analyze this shift in a historical perspective, discussing both the theoretical explanations and the empirical trends of the ongoing change. While we do not claim to provide a comprehensive and exhaustive identification of the causes of this shift, we argue that it is largely driven by the perception of a shift of the U.S. policy towards market-based, rather than publicly supported, incentives for science and technology. This, in turn-given the strong economic performance of the United States over the 1990s-has influenced policies in most OECD countries, especially in Europe. We conclude by analyzing the evolution of research in U.S. higher education and find two major trends: an increasing diversity in the number of institutions of different types other than universities and a steady and continuous public funding of the leading U.S. universities. This has allowed the construction of an infrastructure now used largely by the private sector, but it also noted that the United States has not compromised public support for core areas or in those fields in which there is a clear perception that market incentives are not sufficient for meeting the strategic targets of the U.S. policy. The implication is that there is a considerable policy diversity in the U.S. practice and that all aspects of this diversity should be considered when using the United States as a reference. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Innovat Technol & Policy Res, Lisbon, Portugal. Inst Socio Econ Studies Innovat & Res Policies, CNR, Rome, Italy. Univ Texas, Sch Publ Affairs, LBJ, Austin, TX USA. RP Heitor, MV, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Innovat Technol & Policy Res, Lisbon, Portugal. EM pedroc@ist.utl.pt mheitor@ist.utl.pt sirilli@isrds.rm.cnr.it rwilson@mial.utexas.edu CR *NSB, 2000, SCI ENG IND 2000 *OECD, 2001, NEW EC HYP *OECD, 2004, SCI INN POL KEY CHAL *RR ORG EC COOP DE, 2003, GOV PUBL RES ARCHIBUGI D, 2003, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V70, P861 ARROW KJ, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN BAILY MN, 2001, NBER WORKING PAPER, V8243 BAUMOL W, 2002, FREE MARKET INNOVATI BUSH V, 1945, ENDLESS FRONTIER CONCEICAO P, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V66, P1 CONCEICAO P, 2003, INNOVATION COMPETENC CONCEICAO P, 2003, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V70, P583 CONCEICAO P, 2003, UNESCO ENCY LIFE SUP COWAN R, 2000, IND CORP CHANGE, V9, P211 DASGUPTA P, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P487 DAVID PA, U SIEN LECT SCI I I DAVID PA, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P1165 DAVID PA, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P497 EDLER J, 2003, CHANGING GOVERNANCE FLAMM K, 2003, INT J TECHNOL POLICY, V3, P127 GALLINI N, 2001, INTELLECTUAL PROPERT GIBSON D, 2003, SYSTEMS POLICIES GLO GREENSPAN A, C INT BUS ALL COMM J HALL BH, 2002, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V18, P35 HELLER MA, 1998, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 JONES CI, 1999, TOO MUCH GOOD THING KAHN ZB, 2001, J ECON PERSPECT, V15, P233 KIM L, 2000, TECHNOLOGY LEARNING KORTUM S, 1998, CARN ROCH CONF SERIE, V48, P247 LANDES DS, 1969, UNBOUND PROMETHEUS T MERTON RK, 1973, SOCIOLOGY SCI THEORE MOWERY DC, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P639 MOWERY DC, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P99 MUCHIE M, 2003, PUTTING AFRICA 1 NELSON RR, 1959, J POLITICAL EC, V67, P323 NELSON RR, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST NELSON RR, 1996, TECHNOLOGY R D EC POLANYI M, 1958, PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE P POLANYI M, 1967, TACIT DIMENSION QUAH DT, 1997, MAGAZINE EC PERFORMA, V2 RODRIGUES MJ, 2002, NEW KNOWLEDGE EC EUR SALOMON JJ, 1994, UNCERTAIN QUEST SCI SILVANI A, 2001, RES INNOVATION POLIC SIRILLI G, 2004, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V71, P509 STEPHAN PE, 1996, J ECON LIT, V34, P1199 STIGLITZ JE, 1999, GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS WAD A, 1994, UNCERTAIN QUEST SCI WRIGHT G, 1999, LEARNING DOING MARKE NR 48 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2004 VL 71 IS 6 BP 553 EP 578 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 826HX UT ISI:000221821300002 ER PT J AU Kameoka, A Yokoo, Y Kuwahara, T TI A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE delphi-scenario writing method; general assessment method; demand articulation; informationalization AB Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 JAIST, Tatsunokuchi, Ishikawa 9231292, Japan. NISTEP, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1000013, Japan. RP Kameoka, A, JAIST, Tatsunokuchi, Ishikawa 9231292, Japan. EM kameoka@jaist.ac.jp yokoo@nistep.go.jp kuwahara@nistep.go.jp CR *NAT I SCI TECHN P, 2001, 71 NISTEP MIN ED CUL, V2, P821 COATS JF, 1971, FUTURIST, V5 JONES MV, 1971, MRT60099 KAMEOKA A, 1975, JAP SEM THEOR METH A, P20 KAMEOKA A, 1976, ADV SUMM SEM E W CTR KAMEOKA A, 1979, 8 TECHN FOR S P, P19 KAMEOKA A, 1988, J SCI POLICY RES MAN, V3, P274 KAMEOKA A, 1999, P ANN C SCI POL RES, P173 KAMEOKA A, 2002, IEEE ENG MANAGEMENT KARUBE I, 2001, P INT C TECHN FOR MA KODAMA F, 1991, ANAL JAPANESE HIGH T, P3 KUWAHARA T, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P5 KUWAHARA T, 2001, P INT C TECHN FOR MA MISTUNING, EFFECTIVE USE FACSIM NR 14 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2004 VL 71 IS 6 BP 579 EP 598 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 826HX UT ISI:000221821300003 ER PT J AU Edler, J TI International research strategies of multinational corporations: A German perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE internationalization; industrial research and development; innovation strategies; multinational corporations; Germany; indicator-based analysis ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; HOME COUNTRY ADVANTAGES; INDUSTRIAL-RESEARCH; TECHNOLOGY; GLOBALIZATION; LOCATION AB This paper explores the international research activities of multinational corporations that are related to Germany. It analyzes what role German companies and Germany as a host of foreign companies play in the growing specialization of global exploitation and generation of knowledge. The paper covers application oriented as well as strategic research for two company samples-German and non-German-on the basis of a complex indicator-based analysis (patents and publications) and microdata, from business reports. The paper shows that internationalization of research and development (R&D) has increased and broadened in scope. It highlights the strong and growing differences existing between technological and scientific areas as well as between different sectors. Apparently, while the market adaptation of products is still the major driver for German companies, international knowledge seeking has become more and more important, especially in technological areas that are linked very closely to basic research. While Germany as a host of international industrial R&D is much more attractive for applied research (mechanical engineering) than for basic research, the country has still established attractiveness in selected knowledge-intensive technological areas and shows a high intensity of international cooperation. There is a high level of reciprocity in knowledge-intensive areas pointing towards a global specialization and division of labor. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc. C1 ISI, Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Edler, J, ISI, Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res, Breslauer Str 48, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. EM j.edler@fraunhofer.isi.de CR *OECD, 1997, NAT INN SYST *OECD, 1998, INT IND R D PATT TRE *OECD, 1999, GLOB IND R D POL ISS *OECD, 2000, MEAS GLOB ROL MULT O *UNCTAD, 1996, WORLD INV REP 1996 *UNESCO, 1998, WORLD SCI REP 1998 ARCHIBUGI D, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P121 ARCHIBUGI D, 1999, INNOVATION POLICY GL, P242 ARCHIBUGI D, 2000, UNPUB GLOBALISATION BEISE M, 1998, VIERTELJAHRESHEFTE W, V67, P67 BELITZ H, 2002, DTSCH FORSCHUNGSSTAN BLIND K, 2003, PATENTE ERFINDUNGEN BOUTELLIER R, 1999, MANAGING GLOBAL INNO CANTWELL J, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P155 CRISCUOLO P, 2001, C FUT INN STUD EINDH DUNNING JH, 1995, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V25, P39 DUNNING JH, 1999, INNOVATION POLICY GL, P185 EDLER J, 2001, ENG MANAG J, V13, P11 EDLER J, 2003, INNOVATIVE STRATEGIE, P105 EDLER J, 2003, INTERNATIONALIZIERUN EDLER J, 2004, TECHNOLOGY POLICY TH FLORIDA R, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P85 GRANSTRAND O, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P275 GRUPP H, 1992, WISSENSBINDUNG TECHN HALL P, 2001, VARIETIES CAPITALISM KOOPMANN G, 2001, INTERECONOMICS NOV, P267 KUEMMERLE W, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P179 KUMAR N, 2001, RES POLICY, V31, P159 LEBAS C, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P589 LEGLER H, 2000, INNOVATIONSSTANDORT MEYERKRAHMER F, 1998, GLOBALES MANAGEMENT, P196 NARULA R, 2001, 2000021 MERIT NASCHOLD F, 1997, OKONOMISCHE LEISTUNG, P19 NIOSI J, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P107 PATEL P, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P145 PATEL P, 2000, PRODUCTIVITY INNOVAT, P217 PEARCE R, 1997, GLOBAL COMPETITION, P51 PEARCE RD, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P157 SCHMOCH U, 2003, INTERAKTION AKAD IND SERAPIO MG, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P303 SOSKICE D, 1997, IND INNOVATION, V4, P75 NR 41 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2004 VL 71 IS 6 BP 599 EP 621 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 826HX UT ISI:000221821300004 ER PT J AU Kodama, F TI Measuring emerging categories of innovation: Modularity and business model SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation; modularity; business model; technology system; technoeconomic paradigm AB The oft-cited dichotomy between incremental and radical innovations is less important when we have to analyze how a new technology and its social institution coevolve. In this context, besides incremental and radical innovations, C. Freeman added two more categories of technical change: one is change in the technology system and the other is change in the technoeconomic paradigm. However, as the information technology (IT) revolution progresses further, we come to need more categories of innovations. In the computer industry, the concept of "module" is becoming a solution to growing complexity. In the new IT environment, we can be proactive in demand creation. It becomes crucial, therefore, whether the creation of new "business models" has followed technical innovations. In this article, we will try to demonstrate how these different categories of innovations, i.e., modularization and new business model creation, can be measured. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Shibaura Inst Technol, Grad Sch Engn Management, MOT Program, Tokyo 1080014, Japan. RP Kodama, F, Shibaura Inst Technol, Grad Sch Engn Management, MOT Program, Shiba 5-37-8, Tokyo 1080014, Japan. EM fkodama@sic.shibaura-it.ac.jp CR ABBATE J, 1999, INVENTING INTERNET AKAIKE H, 1973, INT S INFORMATION TH, V2, P267 BALDWIN CY, 1997, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P84 CHESBROUGH H, 2001, TAKING TECHNICAL RIS, P57 CLARK K, 1991, PRODUCT DEV PERFORMA FREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNOLOGY POLICY EC, P60 GROVE A, 1996, ONLY PARANOID SURVIV KIMURA M, 2002, THESIS U TOKYO KODAMA F, 2000, P 1 WORLD C PROD OP, P99 OGAWA H, 2000, ICMIT 2000, P771 OSAKI M, 2001, PORTL INT C MAN ENG, P788 SHARIF MN, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 SIGURDSON J, 2001, WAP OFF ORIGIN FAILU NR 13 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2004 VL 71 IS 6 BP 623 EP 633 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 826HX UT ISI:000221821300005 ER PT J AU Lehto, ELO Lehtoranta, MO TI Becoming an acquirer and becoming acquired SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE M&A; R&D; negative binomial; logit ID INNOVATION; ACQUISITIONS; MODELS AB This paper considers mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Finland. We explain the likelihood that a firm acquires or is acquired by another firm. We try to find out whether the incidences of M&A are influenced by the firms' R&D activity, measured by the calculated R&D stock. We obtained a very robust result, which says that R&D stock increases the probability that a firm acquires in all industries. In the nonprocessing industries, R&D stock similarly increases the probability that a firm is acquired by another. In the processing industries, the firm's own R&D stock has, however, zero impact on the likelihood that another firm buys a firm concerned. We interpret these results indicating that M&A are used as instruments to transmit knowledge from one firm to another. In the nonprocessing industries, it is evident that knowledge capital cumulated in the target is the main motivation for the purchase. Then a buyer's own R&D-which also increases the probability of the trade-signals that a buyer is efficient in absorbing the purchased new technology. In the processing industries, the motive for acquisition is different. We discovered that in the processing industries, technology is rather transmitted from the buyer's firm than to the purchased firm. It looks like that, in these industries, the firms have decreased their unit costs by means of their R&D activity, and so through M&A, the appeared unit cost differences have been levelled. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Labour Inst Econ Res, SF-00530 Helsinki, Finland. Stat Finland, Helsinki 00580, Finland. RP Lehto, ELO, Labour Inst Econ Res, Pitkansillanranta 3A, SF-00530 Helsinki, Finland. EM eero.lehto@labour.fi olavi.lehtoranta@stat.fi CR AGHION P, 1994, Q J ECON, V109, P1185 BLONIGEN BA, 2000, J IND ECON, V48, P47 CHOI JP, 2001, INT J IND ORGAN, V19, P249 COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 GALLINI NT, 1985, RAND J ECON, V16, P237 GANS J, 2000, NBER WORKING PAPERS, V7851 HALL BH, 1987, CORPORATE TAKEOVERS, P69 HAUSMAN J, 1984, ECONOMETRICA, V52, P909 JENSEN MC, 1988, J ECON PERSPECT, V2, P21 KATZ ML, 1985, RAND J ECON, V16, P504 LEHTO E, 2002, 175 LAB I EC RES LEHTO E, 2002, 177 LAB I EC RES MALERBA F, 1997, IND CORP CHANGE, V6, P83 PISANO GP, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P153 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 TIROLE J, 1989, THEORY IND ORG TREMBLAY VJ, 1988, J IND ECON, V37, P21 WOOLDRIDGE JM, 1997, ECONOMET THEOR, V13, P667 NR 18 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2004 VL 71 IS 6 BP 635 EP 650 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 826HX UT ISI:000221821300006 ER PT J AU Moldovan, S Goldenberg, J TI Cellular automata modeling of resistance to innovations: Effects and solutions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation; word-of-mouth; opinion leaders; resistance; cellular automata ID WORD-OF-MOUTH; OPINION LEADERS; DISSATISFIED CONSUMERS; DIFFUSION; PRODUCT; MARKET; TECHNOLOGIES; INFORMATION; PERSPECTIVE; COMPLEXITY AB It has long been accepted that word-of-mouth (w-o-m) communications play a key role in new product adoption and much interest has been directed to the positive impact of interpersonal communications on new product dissemination and adoption. Limited attention, however, has been given to the adverse effect of negative w-o-m and consumers' resistance to change, primarily since these negative forces are less visible, leaving no traces in sales data. In this paper, we explore how resistance may shrink market size. In light of the covert nature of negative w-o-m, we use cellular automata modeling to simulate and gain insights into possible resistance scenarios and their implications. We found that, once resistance is enrolled, advertising provides no more than a limited compensating effect, and positive opinion leaders have only low impact on market growth. In a second study, we explore an approach that undermines the effect of resistance leaders through the direct activation of positive opinion leaders prior to the initiation of unfocused marketing efforts. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Sch Business Adm, Dept Mkt, IL-91905 Jerusalem, Israel. RP Goldenberg, J, Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Sch Business Adm, Dept Mkt, Mt Scopus, IL-91905 Jerusalem, Israel. EM moldovan@mscc.huji.ac.il msgolden@huji.ac.il CR ABRAHAMSON E, 1997, ORGAN SCI, V8, P289 ADLER B, 1997, AM STUPIDEST BUSINES ANDERSON P, 1999, ORGAN SCI, V10, P216 ARNDT J, 1967, J MARKETING RES, V4, P291 BEARDEN WO, 1985, J CONSUM AFF, V19, P222 BHARGAVA SC, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P87 BLACK JS, 1982, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V46, P169 BRIDGES E, 1991, INT J FORECASTING, V7, P257 BROWN JJ, 1987, J CONSUM RES, V14, P350 CASTI J, 1999, NEW SCI, V162, P42 CHAN KK, 1990, J ADVERTISING, V19, P53 DAY GS, 1970, J MARKETING RES, V7, P474 DEJAGER P, 2001, FUTURIST, V35, P24 DICHTER E, 1966, HARVARD BUS REV, V44, P147 DYE R, 1999, AVERT AGE, V70, S20 ELIASHBERG J, 2000, MARKET SCI, V19, P226 FLYNN LR, 1996, J ACAD MARKET SCI, V24, P137 GOLDENBERG J, 2001, MARKET LETT, V12, P209 GOLDENBERG J, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P293 GOLDENBERG J, 2002, J MARKETING, V66, P1 HANSELL S, 2003, AMAZON TRIES WORD MO HERR PM, 1991, J CONSUM RES, V17, P454 JUDGE TA, 1999, J APPL PSYCHOL, V84, P107 KALISH S, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P194 LAM SSK, 2000, J APPL PSYCHOL, V85, P987 LEONARDBARTON D, 1985, J CONSUM RES, V11, P914 MAHAJAN V, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P1389 MAHAJAN V, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P221 MAHAJAN V, 2000, NEW PRODUCT DIFFUSIO MIDGLEY DF, 1976, J CONSUM RES, V3, P31 MOREAU CP, 2001, J MARKETING RES, V38, P14 MUKHERJEE A, 2001, J CONSUM RES, V28, P462 OREG S, 2003, IN PRESS J APPL PSYC PARKER PM, 1994, INT J FORECASTING, V10, P353 RICHINS ML, 1983, J MARKETING, V47, P68 RICHINS ML, 1987, J ACADEMY MARKETING, V15, P24 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SINGH J, 1990, J ACADEMY MARKETING, V18, P1 SMITH RE, 1995, J CONSUM PSYCHOL, V4, P133 SULTAN F, 1990, J MARKETING RES, V27, P70 VALENTE TW, 1995, NETWORK MODELS DIFFU VALENTE TW, 1999, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V566, P55 VENKATRAMAN MP, 1989, PSYCHOL MARKET, V6, P51 WALDORP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY WARLAND RH, 1975, J CONSUM AFF, V9, P148 WATDINS HS, 1996, J INT CONSUM MARK, V8, P69 WOLFRAM S, 1984, NATURE, V311, P419 YALE LJ, 1995, J BUS RES, V32, P225 NR 48 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 71 IS 5 BP 425 EP 442 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 815SX UT ISI:000221063100001 ER PT J AU Esposito, E TI Strategic alliances and internationalisation in the aircraft manufacturing industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE alliance; intemationalisation; aircraft ID TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION; COMPLEX PRODUCTS; SYSTEMS; ORGANIZATION; CONSTRUCTION; INDICATORS; INTENSITY; EVOLUTION; PROJECTS; DYNAMICS AB Based on an indicator measuring the technological, level of aircraft, this paper shows that in the aircraft industry, firms are obliged to deal not only with high technological barriers, but growing financial and market barriers, too. In order to reduce these, a complex network of relationships has developed over time. This network involves both main firms belonging to the world oligopoly and firms capable of offering specialised technology and/or a potential broadening of the market. The result is a worldwide production organisation. This paper highlights the fact that the aircraft industry is undergoing a global reorganisation featuring an integration process where six groups (two in Europe and four in the United States) have come to the fore. In the future, it will be possible to imagine new forms of co-operation between the emerging European and American groups. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Naples Federico II, Fac Engn, Dept Business & Managerial Engn, Ctr Org & Technol Innovat,DIEG,ODISSEO, I-80124 Naples, Italy. RP Esposito, E, Univ Naples Federico II, Fac Engn, Dept Business & Managerial Engn, Ctr Org & Technol Innovat,DIEG,ODISSEO, Via Diocleziano 328, I-80124 Naples, Italy. EM emilespo@unina.it CR 2001, JANES ALL WORLDS AIR *AEA, 1985, REQ FUT ADV SHORT ME *AECMA EUR ASS AER, 2000, 1999 STAT FIN DAT AE *AIA, 2001, AER FACTS FIG 2000 2 *ATA AIR TRANSP US, 1967, STAND METH EST COMP *BOEING, 1985, BOEING METH GEN AIRP *CEC EUR AER IND, 1997, TRAD POS FIG *FI DMS, 2001, AIRCR FOR CIV MIL *NRC, 1992, AER TECHN 21 CENT *OECD, 1999, POL EV INN TECHN BES *OECD, 2000, SCI TECHN IND OUTL ACHILLADELIS B, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P535 AOKI M, 1988, INFORMING INCENTIVES ARCHIBUGI D, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P253 AYRES RU, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P213 BARANSON J, 1978, TECHNOLOGY MULTINATI BARLOW J, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P973 BASBERG BL, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P131 BOEING, 1985, BOEING METHOD GENERA BONACCORSI A, 2001, INT J IND ORGAN, V19, P1053 CABRAL LMB, 2000, INT J IND ORGAN, V18, P1033 CHILD J, 2001, MANAGEMENT INT ACQUI COLLINS P, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P165 COLOMBO MG, 1998, CHANGING BOUNDARIES CONTRACTOR FJ, 1988, COOPERATIVE STRATEGI COX A, 2000, POWER REFIMES MAPPIN CRETON L, 1986, REV FR GEST, V55, P85 CUSUMANO MA, 1988, JAPANESE AUTOMOBILE DAVIES A, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P931 DEBRESSON C, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P363 DODSON EN, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P129 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 DURAND T, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P361 DUSSAUGE P, 1988, REV FRANCAISE GESTIO, V68, P7 DUSSAUGE P, 1999, COOPERATIVE STRATEGY ESPOSITO E, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P1 ESPOSITO E, 1996, INNOVATIONS PROCUREM, P33 ESPOSITO E, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P235 EUROMAT, 1992, COMMERCIAL CONFIDENC GANN DM, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P955 GARDINER JP, 1984, INNOVATION LONG CYCL, P143 GAYNOR HG, 1996, HDB TECHNOLOGY MANAG HAKANSSON H, 1987, IND TECHNOLOGICAL DE HAYWARD K, 1994, WORLD AEROSPACE IND HICKS D, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P681 HOBDAY M, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P793 HOBDAY M, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P871 HUGHES J, 2000, TRANSFORMING SUPPLY HUGHES K, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P301 JURGENS U, 2000, NEW PRODUCT DEV PROD KASH DE, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P819 KNIGHT KE, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P107 KUMAR SS, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V64, P261 LAMMING R, 1993, PARTNERSHIP STRATEGI LAWRENCE P, 1999, STRATEGIC ISSUES EUR LENGRAND L, 1999, BUSINESS NETWORK KNO LENZ RC, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P249 MAJER H, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P335 MANSFIELD E, 1969, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARTINO JP, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P341 MOCKLER RJ, 1999, CBI SERIES PRACTICAL MOWERY DC, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V67, P143 MULLER P, 1995, AEROSPACE COMPANIES, P158 NARIN F, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P143 NIGHTINGALE P, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P913 OHMAE K, 1990, BORDERLESS WORLD PATILLO DMM, 1998, PUSHING ENVELOPE PETERSON DK, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V42, P251 PINELLI T, 1998, KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION SAHAL D, 1984, OMEGA, V12, P153 SAVIOTTI PP, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P309 SCHMITT B, 2000, CHAILLOT PAP, V40 SOETE L, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P101 SWIHART JW, 1988, AERONAUTICAL DEV 21 TEXIER F, 2000, DIVERSIFICATION INNO THOBURN JT, 1992, IND SUBCONTRACTING U TYSON L, 1992, WHOS BASHIING WHOM T NR 77 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 71 IS 5 BP 443 EP 468 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 815SX UT ISI:000221063100002 ER PT J AU Cowan, R Jonard, N Ozman, M TI Knowledge dynamics in a network industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE network; network industry; clustering; innovation; knowledge ID R-AND-D; INNOVATION; FIRM; TECHNOLOGY; SPILLOVERS; CLUSTERS AB In this paper, we model the impact of networks on knowledge growth in an innovating industry. Specifically, we compare two mediums of knowledge exchange: random interaction, and the case in which interaction occurs on a fixed architecture. In a simulation study, we investigate how the medium of knowledge exchange contributes to knowledge growth under different scenarios related to the industry's innovative potential. We measure innovative potential by considering the extent to which knowledge can be codified, and the available technological opportunities. Our results tend to support the conjecture that spatial clustering generates higher long-run knowledge growth rates in industries characterized by highly tacit knowledge, while the opposite is true when the degree of codification is important. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Maastricht, MERIT, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. Ecole Polytech, CREA, CNRS, F-75005 Paris, France. RP Ozman, M, Univ Maastricht, MERIT, POB 616, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. EM m.ozman@merit.unimaas.nl CR ANTONELLI C, 1999, COMMUNICATION INNOVA AUDRETSCH DB, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P630 AUDRETSCH DB, 1996, REV IND ORGAN, V11, P253 AUDRETSCH DB, 1998, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V14, P18 BALCONI M, 2002, NETWORKS INVENTORS L BAPTISTA R, 1999, J EVOL ECON, V9, P373 BAPTISTA R, 2000, INT J IND ORGAN, V18, P515 COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 COWAN R, 1997, 005 MERIT COWAN R, 2002, LECT NOTES EC MATH S, V521, P155 COWAN R, 2003, IN PRESS J EC BEHAV EATON C, 1997, RAND J ECON, V28, P135 FELDMAN MP, 1999, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V8, P5 GAMBARDELLA A, 1996, 174 U POMP FABR EC D HARGADON A, 1997, ADMIN SCI QUART, V42, P716 HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 JAFFE AB, 1993, Q J ECON, V108, P577 KOGUT B, 1992, ORGAN SCI, V3, P383 KOGUT B, 1993, J INT BUS STUD, V24, P625 ORSENIGO L, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P485 PRAEST M, 1998, THESIS AALBORG U AAL PRICE DJD, 1965, SCIENCE, V149, P510 SUTTON RI, 1996, ADMIN SCI QUART, V41, P685 SWANN P, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P1139 VONHIPPEL E, 1989, IND DYNAMICS, P157 WATTS DJ, 1998, NATURE, V393, P440 NR 26 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 71 IS 5 BP 469 EP 484 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 815SX UT ISI:000221063100003 ER PT J AU Frenken, K Hekkert, M Godfroij, P TI R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion: Variety, competition and policy implications SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological substitution; variety; entropy; lock-in; suboptimality; sustainability; fuel cell; electric vehicle; patent; Californian Low Emission Vehicle program ID LOCK-IN; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; INCREASING RETURNS; ELECTRIC VEHICLE; INNOVATION; BEHAVIOR; ENTROPY AB In this article, we analyze R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion including alternative fuel options. We argue that at the current stage of development, substitution of conventional car technology by a new automotive propulsion technology may lead to premature lock-in of suboptimal technology. To avoid such lock-in, one should value the variety of current R&D activity that enables organizations to learn from multiple options and to create spillovers between options. We further argue that the existence of technological variety is not a sufficient condition to avoid lock-in. Organizational variety is also required to sustain competition and avoid the dominance of few firms that possibly enforce a suboptimal technology within the sector. To assess whether recent developments in R&D have led to both technological variety and organizational competition, we analyze United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents in low-emission vehicles (LEVs) during the period 1980-2001 using entropy statistics. Results show that both technological variety and organizational competition have increased steadily since the early nineties, suggesting that premature lock-in is unlikely to occur. From an environmental policy evaluation perspective, we consider the findings as a positive evaluation of the 1990 Californian Low Emission Vehicle program. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Utrecht, Fac Geog Sci, Urban & Reg Res Ctr, URU,Dept Econ Geog, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. Univ Utrecht, Fac Geog Sci, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev & Innovat, Dept Innovat Studies, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. Netherlands Minist Housing Spatial Planning & Env, NL-2500 EZ The Hague, Netherlands. RP Frenken, K, Univ Utrecht, Fac Geog Sci, Urban & Reg Res Ctr, URU,Dept Econ Geog, POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. EM k.frenken@geog.uu.nl m.hekkert@geog.uu.nl per.godfroij@minvrom.nl CR *US DEP EN, 2001, HYBR EL VEH PROGR ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V50, P41 ARTHUR WB, 1983, WP8390 IIASA ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 AXELROD R, 1995, MANAGE SCI, V41, P1493 BIKHCHANDANI S, 1998, J ECON PERSPECT, V12, P151 BRESCHI S, 2000, ECON J, V110, P388 BRUCKNER E, 1996, J EVOL ECON, V6, P1 COHEN WM, 1996, ECON J, V106, P925 CONSTANT EW, 1980, ORIGINS TUBOJET REVO COWAN R, 1990, J ECON HIST, V50, P541 COWAN R, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P61 DALLE JM, 1997, J EVOL ECON, V7, P395 DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DAVID PA, 1993, PATH DEPENDENCE PRED, P208 FORAY D, 1997, INT J IND ORGAN, V15, P733 FRENKEN K, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P469 GODFROIJ P, 2002, TRANSITION ROUTE LOW GRUBLER A, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P247 GRUPP H, 1990, SCIENTOMETRICS, V18, P219 ISLAS J, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P49 KLEPPER S, 1997, IND CORP CHANGE, V6, P145 KODAMA F, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL ENTROP, P146 LEVINTHAL DA, 1998, IND CORP CHANGE, V7, P217 LEYDESDORFF L, 1995, CHALLENGE SCIENTOMET MCGRATH RN, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P247 MENANTEAU P, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P375 MULDER P, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P151 ROBERT Q, 1999, RILEY ENTERPRISES EL SAVIOTTI PP, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P89 SCHARFSTEIN DS, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P465 THEIL H, 1967, EC INFORMATION THEOR THEIL H, 1972, STAT DECOMPOSITION A UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I NR 35 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 71 IS 5 BP 485 EP 507 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 815SX UT ISI:000221063100004 ER PT J AU Sirilli, G TI Will Italy meet the ambitious European target for R&D expenditure? Natura non facit saltus SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE R&D expenditure; Italy; science and technology AB The paper addresses the issue as to whether the Italian scientific and technological system can achieve the Barcelona targets set by the heads of state and government (3% of GDP devoted to R&D by the year 2010) and by the R&D guidelines set by the Italian Ministry for Education, University, and Research (MIUR) (to achieve the level of 1.75% of the ratio in the year 2006). The projections built in the paper show that such objectives are well beyond Italy's potential, and that according to a "natura non facit saltus" (NNFS) projection, the country will be able to raise the ratio from 1.04% in 2002 to 1.55% in 2010. Such projection rests on rather optimistic assumptions: higher priority attached to R&D in the government budget, an increasing propensity of firms to invest their value added in R&D, and an increase of researchers' salaries. The difficulty to achieve the objectives set at the European and national level is due to the low starting point, to the lack of additional investment from 2001 to 2003, and to structural factors such as insufficient supply of qualified human resources, the small size of high-tech industry, and constraints imposed by the reduction of public spending. The attainment of R&D policy objectives is more and more dependent on education, industrial, and public budget policies; the issue of a thorough review of the governance of the whole S&T system at the national level is therefore raised. The situation is accentuated by the fact that decisions taken at national level are conditioned by the European union (through the Framework Program, the regulations regarding state aid to firms, etc.) by multinational enterprises, which operate on a global scale, and by regions in the framework of their autonomy. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 CNR, ISPRI, I-00185 Rome, Italy. RP Sirilli, G, CNR, ISPRI, Via Taurini,19, I-00185 Rome, Italy. EM sirilli@isrds.rm.cnr.it CR *EUR COMM, 2002, PRES COUNCL BARC EUR *F EUR COMM, 2003, 3 EUR REP SCI TECHN *F PRES CONS MIN, 1986, RAPP SIT PROSP SCI T *ISTAT, 2001, STAT RIC SCI CONS 19 *ISTAT, 2003, RIC SV IT *OECD, 2002, TARG R D EC POL IMPL *PH EUR COMM, 2003, 20713 EUR PH EUR COM *PH OECD EUR, 1994, MEAS SCI TECHN ACT M *PH OECD, 2002, FRASC MAN 2002 *PH OECD, 2002, OECD SCI TECHN IND O AVVEDUTO S, 1998, BRUTTO ANATROCCOLO D BRAGA M, 1998, COEVOLUTION NATL REG DEMARCHI M, 2000, MONITORAGGIO SCI TEC GAGLIARDI F, 2003, RISCHI RICERCA ITALI, P28 LAVILLE F, 2001, INDICATEURS ACTIVITE MALERBA F, 2000, EC INNOVAZIONECAROCC MIUR PH, 2002, LINEE GUIDA POLITICA SCHIBANY A, 2003, AIMING HIGH ASSESSME SIRILLI G, 1998, SCI PUBL POLICY, V25, P305 SIRILLI G, 2002, COMPETITIVITA SISTEM, V1 NR 20 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 71 IS 5 BP 509 EP 523 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 815SX UT ISI:000221063100005 ER PT J AU List, D Metcalfe, M TI Sourcing forecast knowledge through argumentative inquiry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE forecast knowledge; argumentative inquiry; debating society ID PREDICT AB This paper describes a process for nominating and assessing potential actions in group meetings. It is probably useful in many other applications including as input to a forecast. The authors were concerned on how the ancient and well-tried technique of argumentative inquiry might be applied in such meetings. The traditional form of argumentation, the courtroom or debating society, was thought too confrontational, yet other attributes of argumentative inquiry were thought to be attractive. These include the use of dialectic perspectives coupled with competition. The application described illustrates the use of the argumentative process in the design and selection of radio programs for estimating demand for an ex-government-controlled radio network in Indonesia as it emerged into democracy. A series of group meetings applied an inverted form of facilitated argument whereby depersonalized statements were debated on. This paper argues that, correctly applied, the argumentative inquiry approach provides reliability, helps inform those participating in the exercises, and is sensitive to a variety of viewpoints. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ S Australia City W, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia. RP Metcalfe, M, Univ S Australia City W, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 71 IS 5 BP 525 EP 535 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 815SX UT ISI:000221063100006 ER PT J AU Ayres, RU Williams, E TI The digital economy: Where do we stand? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE information technology; computers; Internet; broadband; cellular phones; economic growth; innovation; video-on-demand; telecommuting AB The rapid transition towards a "digital economy" was enabled by a converging set of innovations. Computing saw the development of the semiconductor transistor, integrated circuit, personal computers (PCs), operating systems, and graphical interfaces. The physical layer of telecommunication was enabled via the emergence of optical fiber and new wireless communication technologies, while networking saw the development of the lnternet (essentially packet switching) and the World Wide Web. These advances combined to realize a series of new applications of information and communications technologies (ICTs) such as business software, e-mail, and e-commerce. However, progress seriously stumbled with the collapse of the dot com bubble, which among other things revealed a huge amount of misdirected investment that could have been used more productively. The question of the day is thus how to realize new "killer apps" to stimulate a new round of growth. The use of cell phones for communicating text, pictures, and video is a rapidly expanding area, but it seems unlikely that these applications will have a macroeconomic impact. Entertainment is a key industry whose fortunes are entwined with ICTs. Indeed, the application of ICT to innovating entertainment products is an important driver for the continued growth of the industry. Distribution of music and video via the Web could significantly stimulate demand but also raises the thorny question of how to protect intellectual property rights (IPR) of content providers. Another possible killer apps are interactive video-on-demand and telecalls/teleconferencing. The latter would, among other things, stimulate adoption of telework. The current Internet is capable of handing neither one-way transmissions of high-quality video nor interactive video-on-demand. There are bottlenecks both for the "last mile" connection from Internet service provider (ISP) to the home but also the "first miles" from originating server to ISP. The effective first miles bandwidth has not increased along with improvements in equipment, essentially because demand increases with capacity and thus traffic jams on the net continue. Digital subscriber line (DSL) technologies over telephone wires, and possibly wireless networks, will play important roles in getting over the last mile hurdle. Upgrading the first miles will probably require new networking protocols beyond TCP/IP that support multimedia and also changes in the economic model of information transfer via the Net. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 INSEAD, CMER, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. UN Univ, Tokyo, Japan. RP Ayres, RU, INSEAD, CMER, Blvd Constance, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. EM Robert.AYRES@insead.edu CR 1997, ECONOMIST 0503, P66 2001, ECONOMIST 0324, P18 2001, ECONOMIST 0324, P24 ACAMPORA A, 2002, SCI AM, V287, P33 AYRES RU, 1985, ROBOTICS FLEXIBLE MA AYRES RU, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, CH2 AYRES RU, 1991, INFORMATION COMPUT 3 BARTLETT J, 2002, 5063 NETF BERNERSLEE T, 1996, COMPUTER, V29, P69 HARRIS M, 2002, HOUSEHOLD DIARY STUD HAYES B, 2000, AM SCI, V88, P200 JOHNSTON P, 2001, EWORK 2001 STATUS RE, P206 KIRBY R, 2001, NETW MAG SEP LEWIS M, 1999, NEW THING SILICON VA MOORE GE, 1965, ELECTRONICS, V38 NEGROPONTE N, 1995, BEING DIGITAL PLATT C, 2001, WIRED MAY, P120 ROSE F, 2001, WIRED MAY, P128 SEVCIK P, 2001, 5055 NETF SHANNON CE, 1948, ELL SYST TECH J, V27 STALLINGS W, 2002, HIGH SPEED NETWORKS TUOMI I, 1 MONDAY, V7 NR 22 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2004 VL 71 IS 4 BP 315 EP 339 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 812DW UT ISI:000220821200001 ER PT J AU Tichy, G TI The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE foresight exercises; Delphi methods; self-rating of experts; expert optimism ID SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY; MARKETING DECISION; DELPHI TECHNIQUE; CHEMICAL RISKS; FORECASTS; FUTURE; EVENTS; TOXICOLOGY; JUDGMENTS; BIAS AB It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent. with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Austrian Acad Sci, Inst Technol Assessment, A-1030 Vienna, Austria. RP Tichy, G, Austrian Acad Sci, Inst Technol Assessment, Strohgasse 45, A-1030 Vienna, Austria. EM gtichy@oeaw.ac.at CR *BMFT, 1993, DTSCH DELPH BER ENTW *ITA, 1998, TECHN DELPH, V1 AICHHOLZER G, REG C TECHN FOR CEE AICHHOLZER G, 2001, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V21, P739 ALBACH H, 1970, Z BETRIEBSWIRTSCH, V40, P11 ALBRIGHT RE, 2002, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V69, P443 AMENT RH, 1970, FUTURES, V2, P35 ARMSTRONG JS, 1987, FORECASTING METHODS, P157 AVISON W, 1976, FUTURES, V8, P413 BEST RJ, 1974, J MARKETING RES, V11, P447 BOGNER A, 2001, SOZ WELT, V52, P477 BROCKHOFF K, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P291 BURNS T, 1985, 866 INT I ENV SOC BE CORN JJ, 1986, IMAGING TOMORROW HIS CUHLS K, 1998, DELPHI 98 UMFRAGE ST DALKEY N, 1963, MANAGE SCI, V9, P458 DALKEY NC, 1969, RM5888P DALKEY NC, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P283 DALKEY NC, 1971, R678ARPA GESCHKA H, 1977, LANGFRISTIGE PROGNOS, P27 GRUPP H, 1999, NORMATIVE TECHNIKBEW, P153 GRUPP H, 2000, DELPHI TECHNIK SOZIA, P43 HADER M, 1998, 9806 ZUMA JOLSON MA, 1971, J MARKETING RES, V8, P443 KAHNEMAN D, 1972, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V3, P430 KALINOVSKI MB, 1994, PROJ APPRAISAL, V1, P19 KRUPP H, 1992, ENERGY POLITICS SCHU LARRECHE JC, 1983, J MARKETING RES, V20, P110 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P573 LINSTONE HA, 1978, HDB FUTURES RES, P273 LINSTONE HA, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH LYNN FRM, 1987, OSHAS CARCINOGENS ST, P345 MARTINO J, 1983, TECHNBOLOGICAL FOREC MENRAD K, 1999, FUTURE IMPACTS BIOTE, P160 MILBURN MA, 1978, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V21, P17 PARENTE FJ, 1987, JUDGMENTAL FORECASTI, P129 RAUCH W, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15, P159 RIGGS WE, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P89 ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION ROSENBERG N, 1994, EXPLORING BLACK BOX ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P235 ROWE G, 1999, INT J FORECASTING, V15, P353 SCHNAARS SP, 1989, MUSTERBEISPIELE MARK SHRUM W, 1985, SCIENTOMETRICS, V8, P35 SLOVIC P, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P661 SLOVIC P, 1997, HUM EXP TOXICOL, V16, P289 SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK, R1 TICHY G, 1997, EXPERTENUMFRAGE ERST, V3 TICHY G, 1997, INT TECHNOLOGIETREND, V2 TICHY G, 1997, OSTERREICHISCHES KON, V1 TICHY G, 1997, PROBLEMORIENTIERTE T, V4 TICHY G, 2001, EMPIRICA, V27, P411 TICHY G, 2001, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V21, P765 TYEBJEE TT, 1987, INT J FORECASTING, V3, P393 WEAVER WT, 1971, PHI DELTA KAPPAN, V52, P267 WEINSTEIN ND, 1980, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V39, P806 WELTY G, 1972, ACAD MANAGE J, V15, P121 WISE G, 1976, FUTURES, V8, P411 WRIGHT G, 1987, JUDGEMENT FORECASTIN WRIGHT G, 1989, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P117 WRIGHT G, 1992, ORGAN BEHAV HUM, V51, P344 ZAKAY D, 1983, ACTA PSYCHOL, V53, P271 NR 62 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2004 VL 71 IS 4 BP 341 EP 363 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 812DW UT ISI:000220821200002 ER PT J AU Watanabe, C Kondo, R Ouchi, N Wei, HH TI A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology diffusion; diffusion orbit; Lotka-Volterra equations; competitive innovations; optimal policy option ID DIFFUSION AB Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism. Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit. Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Ind Engn & Management, Tokyo 1528552, Japan. Minist Publ Management Home Affairs,Posts & Telec, Broadcasting Technol Div, Tokyo 1008926, Japan. RP Watanabe, C, Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Ind Engn & Management, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Tokyo 1528552, Japan. EM chihiro@me.titech.ac.jp CR *ADV COMM DIG TERR, 1998, CONSTR NEW TERR BROA *MIN PUBL MAN, 2001, 2001 COMM JAP *MIN PUBL MAN, 2001, REP NEXT GEN BROADC ANTONELLI C, 1999, INFORMATION ORG, P263 BAUER M, 1995, RESISTANCE NEW TECHN BINSWANGER H, 1978, INDUCED INNOVATION T CHRISTENSEN CM, 1997, INNOVATORS DILEMMA GEROSKI PA, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P603 GRUEBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH HARMS AA, 1981, INT S EN EC MOD LOU HART JA, 1999, EC TECHNOLOGY CONTEN, P287 HOFBANDER J, 1988, THEORY EVOLUTION DYN KERNER EH, 1961, B MATH BIOPHYS, V23, P133 METCALFE JS, 1981, FUTURES, V13, P347 MEYER P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P89 MEYER PS, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P209 MOORE JF, 1993, HARVARD BUS REV, V71, P75 NELSON RR, 2001, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V44, P31 NOLL AM, 1999, EC TECHNOLOGY CONTEN, P3 PARKER R, 1999, EC TECHNOLOGY CONTEN, P197 PESHEL M, 1983, CP8360 ILASA COLL PISTORIUS CWI, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V50, P133 RUTTAN VW, 2001, TECHNOLOGY GROWTH DE SCUDO F, 1978, LECT NOTES BIOMATHEM, V22 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SONIS M, 1984, LONDON PAPERS REGION, V14, P29 WATANABE C, 2002, IN PRESS TECHNOVATIO NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2004 VL 71 IS 4 BP 365 EP 390 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 812DW UT ISI:000220821200003 ER PT J AU Frank, LD TI An analysis of the effect of the economic situation on modeling and forecasting the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE economic situation; diffusion of wireless communications; Finland AB In this paper, the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland is studied. The objectives are to find factors which have affected the diffusion process and to forecast the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland. The diffusion process is based on the epidemic diffusion theory. The data consists of annual wireless subscribers of networks based on Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT) and Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) standards in 1981-1998. The data is fitted into the logistic model by means of nonlinear least squares after writing two parameters of the logistic model as functions of certain variables. The results show that the economic situation has affected the relative growth rate, and that the wireless network coverage has affected the number of potential adopters. By extrapolating the logistic model, a forecast with a confidence interval of wireless communications subscriber rates in Finland is made. The forecast shows that the final penetration rate will be some 91.7% in 2009. The model predicts the actual figures of year 1999 very accurately. Finally the time, derivatives of the diffusion process are analyzed; they clarify the effect of economic situation on the diffusion. (C) 2002 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Lappeenranta Univ Technol, Telecom Business Res Ctr, FIN-53851 Lappeenranta, Finland. RP Frank, LD, Lappeenranta Univ Technol, Telecom Business Res Ctr, POB 20, FIN-53851 Lappeenranta, Finland. EM lauri.frank@lut.fi CR *MIN TRANS COMM FI, 1999, TEL STAT 1999 MIN TR *MIN TRANSP COMM F, 1994, TEL STAT 1994 *STAT FINL, 1999, STAT YB FINL 1999 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 GRUBER H, 1998, APPL ECON, V30, P77 GRUBER H, 2001, EUR ECON REV, V45, P577 KOSKI H, 1998, EC ANAL ADOPTION TEC, V3 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1989, RES POLICY, V18, P183 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION TONKS I, 1986, INT J IND ORGAN, V4, P397 NR 13 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2004 VL 71 IS 4 BP 391 EP 403 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 812DW UT ISI:000220821200004 ER PT J AU Glenn, JC Gordon, TJ TI Future issues of science and technology SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE science and technology; millennium project; global issues AB The Millennium Project involved 237 scientists, futurists, and policymakers around the world in a two-round Delphi on the future issues of science and technology (S&T) over the next, 25 years. This is the first of a 3-year study. The study began by asking science attaches to Washington, DC, what questions were worth asking to their leading scientists and issues that were important to explore on an international basis. A series of questions were identified and rated. Actions to address the questions were also suggested and rated. The results are presented in this paper with some regional differences discussed. The next year of the study interviewed S&T policymakers for the management and policy implications of these findings, and the third year developed scenarios based on these implications. (C) 2004 American Council for the United Nations University. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 UN Univ, Amer Council, Washington, DC 20016 USA. RP Glenn, JC, UN Univ, Amer Council, 4421 Garrison St,NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA. EM jglenn@igc.org NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2004 VL 71 IS 4 BP 405 EP 416 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 812DW UT ISI:000220821200005 ER PT J AU Golden, BL Zantek, PF TI Inaccurate forecasts of the logistic growth model for Nobel Prizes SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE forecast evaluation; logistic growth model; Nobel prize ID LEAST-SQUARES AB Modis [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 34 (1988) 95] reports that a logistic growth (LG) model of the number of U.S. Nobel Prize recipients provides an excellent fit for the period 1901-1987. This model forecasts that approximately 235 Americans will receive a Nobel Prize by year-end 2002 and that a total of 283 Americans will eventually receive a Nobel Prize. We use recent data (1901-2002) on prize recipients to provide a revised test of this model. The results of extensive holdout forecasting and nonlinear least-squares fits to the data provide convincing evidence that the LG model systematically underpredicts the number of Nobel Prizes awarded to Americans. For instance, the cumulative number of American recipients as of year-end 2002 is 270, significantly larger than the LG forecast of 235. We argue that other approaches to forecasting the number of future Nobel awards should be considered. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Maryland, RH Smith Sch Business, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. RP Golden, BL, POB 149, Simpsonville, MD 21150 USA. EM bgolden@rhsmith.umd.edu CR HARTLEY HO, 1961, TECHNOMETRICS, V3, P269 LEVENBERG K, 1944, QUART APPL MATH, V2, P164 MARQUARDT DW, 1963, J SOC IND APPL MATH, V11, P431 MODIS T, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P95 NR 4 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2004 VL 71 IS 4 BP 417 EP 422 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 812DW UT ISI:000220821200006 ER PT J AU Schnaars, S Wymbs, C TI On the persistence of lackluster demand - the history of the video telephone SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE videophone; new technological product; innovations AB Some radically new, technological products soar smoothly from introduction to stunning market growth, just as textbooks say they should. However, that is not always the case, nor is it even the most likely outcome. The case of the videophone is an extreme one to be sure but it offers six important lessons that apply to many other radically new technological products: (1) not every new technology leads to stunning market success; (2) just because the press says it will, does not mean it will; (3) growth often takes longer than expected; (4) growth often reaches lower levels than expected; (5) technological convergence is not a certainty; and (6) innovations involving complex systems face more hurdles to market acceptance than "stand-alone" innovations. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 CUNY Bernard M Baruch Coll, Dept Mkt, Zicklin Sch Business, New York, NY 10010 USA. RP Wymbs, C, CUNY Bernard M Baruch Coll, Dept Mkt, Zicklin Sch Business, B12-240,1 Bernard Baruch Way, New York, NY 10010 USA. EM Steven_Schnaars@barach.cuny.edu Clifford_Wymbs@baruch.cuny.edu CR 1924, NY TIEMS 0220, P9 1924, NY TIEMS 0609, P3 1965, BUS WEEK, V30, P30 1972, BELL TEL MAG JAN, V51, P1 1972, WALL STREET J 0907, P1 1976, US NEWS WORLD R 0614, P73 1976, US NEWS WORLD R 0705, P88 1982, WALL STREET J 0709, P6 1984, BUS WEEK 1212, P116 1992, ATPLUST NEWS RE 0106 2002, BUS WEEK 0715, P42 2002, JPN EC NEWSWIRE 1126 ANDERBERG K, 2002, COMMUN WEEK MAR, V39, P4 BASTAIN D, 2002, TELECOMMUN INT, V36, P38 BETZ F, 1994, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V9, P784 BOWER JL, 1988, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P110 BOWER JL, 1995, HARVARD BUS REV, V73, P43 BRUNNER GF, 2001, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V44, P45 BURGELMAN RA, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT CARSON D, 1968, BELL LAB REC, V46, P286 DEZOYSA S, 2001, TELECOMMUNICATIO DEC, P28 DICKSON E, 1973, VIDEO TELEPHONE FISCHELL D, 1982, BELL LAB REC, V60, P279 FRITZ M, 2001, EMEDIA MAG NOV, V14, P44 GILBERT A, 2001, INFORMATIONWEEK 1203, P18 GILFILLAN SC, 1912, INDEPENDENT, V72, P886 GILFILLAN SC, 1935, SOCIOLOGY INVENTION, P94 HAWKINS W, 1988, POP SCI MAR, P107 HAWKINS W, 1988, POP SCI MAR, P61 HEUN C, 2001, INFORMATIONWEEK 1119, P16 JANSON D, 1970, NY TIEMS 0701, P1 JOHNSON JT, 2002, NETW WORLD, V19, P26 KLEINFIELD J, 1992, NY TIMES C 0813, P1 KREBS K, 2002, COMMUN NEWS MAR, V39, P12 MESERVE J, 2002, NETW WORLD, V19, P21 MOON Y, 2002, 9502031 HARV BUS SCH NAKAMOTO M, 2002, FINANCE TIMES 1120, P6 NOLL M, 1992, NY TIMES 0112, P13 PHILLIPS C, 1993, REGULATION PUBLIC UT RABY A, 2001, COMMUN WORLD, V18, P15 RAMIREZ A, 1992, NY TIMES D 0107, P6 RAMIREZ A, 1993, NY TIMES D 0106, P6 REGENOLD S, 2001, PRESENTATIONS, V15, P13 RENSBERGER B, 1971, NY TIMES 0703, P26 SCHAER SC, 1999, NEWSDAY 0205, A19 SCHEWE G, 1994, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V11, P25 SCHLESINGER J, 1991, WALL STREET J 1021, R18 SPAIN T, 1988, DPLUSB REP MAR, P58 SUSUKI O, 2001, STRATEGIC MANGEMENT, P234 WAHL A, 2002, CAN BUS 1125, P87 ZEIL A, 1996, TELEPHONY, V231, P36 NR 51 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 71 IS 3 BP 197 EP 216 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 770CC UT ISI:000188704800001 ER PT J AU Cairns, G Wright, G Bradfield, R van der Heijden, K Burt, G TI Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE e-govemment; scenarios; futures; change; complexity ID TOOL; ART AB In this paper, we examine the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT) on government departments/agencies and the contribution of external agents to change and development programs. We present empirical evidence of externally facilitated change to mindsets and patterns of behavior within local government through use of a scenario planning-based approach. Our aim was to facilitate the organizational actors' conduct of investigation of the 'limits of the possible' for a range of plausible futures and determination of strategic responses to these. Participants used their own current knowledge and understanding as a basis for development, with the introduction of external 'expertise' to challenge their thinking and to expand their understanding. Following this, we facilitated the participants' elucidation of key uncertainties on the future, exploration of the relationships between them and possible outcomes. The participants then constructed scenarios that outlined four possible and plausible futures. These held explicit meaning for the participants, enabled them to identify implications of each possible future in relation to structure and service requirements and informed analysis of current structure, service, etc. We compare and contrast the process and outcomes of our scenario-planning intervention (based on intuitive logics) with both those of other futures methodologies (decision analysis, Delphi and environmental scanning) and with other scenario methodologies (trend-impact analysis and cross-impact analysis). We argue that the external facilitation of internal generation of knowledge, understanding and meaning, and of exploration of the limits of the possible for the future, is a valuable tool for comprehending strategic choices. We conclude that our scenario approach, utilizing intuitive logics, enables organizational actors to make sense of the complexities and ambiguities that they face and so facilitates strategic change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Strathclyde, Ctr Scenario Planning & Future Studies, Grad Sch Business, Glasgow G4 0QY, Lanark, Scotland. RP Cairns, G, Univ Strathclyde, Ctr Scenario Planning & Future Studies, Grad Sch Business, 199 Cathedral St, Glasgow G4 0QY, Lanark, Scotland. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 71 IS 3 BP 217 EP 238 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 770CC UT ISI:000188704800002 ER PT J AU Nutt, PC TI Averting decision debacles SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE decision debacles; shell; quaker ID ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION; RATIONALITY; PERFORMANCE; COMPLEXITY; TACTICS AB Half of the decisions made in organization fail, posing questions about the causes of failure and how to improve matters. My research shows that failure-prone decision-makers are victimized by three blunders: making premature commitments, spending time and money on the wrong things, and using failure-prone practices. The blunders create traps and the traps ensnare decision-makers to bring about failure. To dodge the traps, successful decision-makers were found to uncover hidden concerns, manage the social and political forces that can block them, identify desired results, search widely and encourage innovation, estimate benefits and the risks to realize them, voice ethical questions, and root out perverse incentives so learning can occur. Decision debacles drawn from Shell's disposal of the Brent Spar, Quaker's purchase of Snapple, and tax support for a sports arena are used to illustrate the blunders and traps, how they arise, and how to avoid them. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Ohio State Univ, Dept Management Sci, Fisher Coll Business, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. RP Nutt, PC, Ohio State Univ, Dept Management Sci, Fisher Coll Business, 2100 Neil Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 71 IS 3 BP 239 EP 265 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 770CC UT ISI:000188704800003 ER PT J AU Mechling, G TI Transforming radiology's workplace: Roentgen marries up with the digital world of IT and the Internet SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE Teleradiology; Internet; Roentgen ID TELERADIOLOGY; SERVICES AB Driven by technological developments in both medical imaging and information technology (IT), various institutional, demographic, and economic factors are making the teleradiology model increasingly attractive relative to the traditional radiology model that has been in place for the most part since medical imaging began. The emergence of teleradiology in the medical imaging industry is transforming the way radiologists do their work, and this paper shows why and how this is occurring. It further identifies a variety of issues that have arisen or are arising and their possible resolutions as radiologists engage in integrating their professional work with the new and novel settings (including radiology on-line) that recent developments in combining imaging and information technologies are creating. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Western Carolina Univ, Dept Management, Cullowhee, NC 28723 USA. RP Mechling, G, Western Carolina Univ, Dept Management, Cullowhee, NC 28723 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 71 IS 3 BP 267 EP 285 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 770CC UT ISI:000188704800004 ER PT J AU Porter, AL Ashton, WB Clar, G Coates, JF Cuhls, K Cunningham, SW Ducatel, K van der Duin, P Cunningham, SW Ducatel, K van der Duin, P Georgehiou, L Gordon, T Linstone, H Marchau, V Massari, G Miles, I Mogee, M Salo, A Scapolo, F Smits, R Thissen, W CA Technology Futures Anal Me TI Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology futures analysis; forecasting; research and development ID PARTICIPATORY POLICY-ANALYSIS; FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES; LONG-WAVE; SYSTEMS; MODEL; INNOVATION; MANAGEMENT; ROADMAPS; SCIENCE AB Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used-from industrial to information and molecular-make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Georgia Inst Technol, Ind & Syst Engn & Publ Policy, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Porter, AL, Georgia Inst Technol, Ind & Syst Engn & Publ Policy, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. CR 2004, IN PRESS TECHNOL FOR, V71 *US EPA, 1995, HORIZON ALBRIGHT RE, 2002, APPL DEPLOYMENT ROAD ARMSTRONG JS, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V67, P93 ASHTON WB, 1991, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V6, P91 AYRES RU, 1969, EXTRAPOLATION TRENDS, P94 AYRES RU, 1969, MORPHOLOGICAL ANAL T, P72 BARKER D, 1995, LONG RANGE PLANN, V28, P21 BECKER H, 2003, INT HDB SOCIAL IMPAC BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BOARDMAN AE, 2000, COST BENEFIT ANAL CO BONGERS FJ, 2000, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V19, P269 CAMPBELL DT, 1959, PSYCHOL BULL, V56, P85 CLARKE DW, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V64, P133 CLEMEN RT, 1996, MAKING HARD DECISION CLEMEN RT, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P187 CUHLS K, 2002, 11 JUL 2002 INN POL CUHLS K, 2003, J FORECASTING, V22, P93 DEBRUIJN H, IMPACT ASSESSMENT PR, V20, P1 DEVEZAS TC, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P1 DURAND T, 2003, J FORECASTING, V22, P161 EPSTEIN J, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S ETO H, 2003, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V70, P231 FISCHHOFF B, 1998, RISK MODERN SOC, P133 FISHER F, 1993, ARGUMENTATIVE TURN P FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GAUSEMEIER J, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P111 GEORGHIOU L, 2002, INNOVATION POLICY SU GEORGHIOU L, 2003, P 2 INT C TECHN FOR GEURTS JLA, 2001, EUR J OPER RES, V128, P300 GLICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GOLDENBERG J, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P293 GORDON T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P49 GORDON T, 2001, STATE FUTURE 2002 20 GORDON TJ, 1973, GUIDE PRACTICAL TECH GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 GORDON TJ, 1995, SCENARIO SIMULATION GORDON TJ, 2003, FRACTURES RES METHOD GORDON TJ, 2003, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V70, P397 GRUPP H, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P85 GUINEE JB, 2002, HDB LIFE CYCLE ASSES HAMALAINEN RP, 1996, GROUP DECIS NEGOT, V5, P485 HORTON A, 1999, FORESIGHT, V1 JUNGK R, 1996, FUTURE WORKSH CREATE KANE J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P129 KAUFFMAN S, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE KOSTOFF RN, 2001, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V48, P132 KUHLMANN S, 1999, IMPROVING DISTRIBUTE LEMPERT RJ, 2003, SHAPING NEWT 100 YEA LINSTONE HA, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI LINSTONE HA, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH LINSTONE HA, 2002, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LINSTONE HA, 2002, FUTURES, V34, P317 MANN DL, 2003, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V70, P779 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29 MARTIN BR, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P139 MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEADOWS D, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEYER C, 2003, ITS ALIVE COMING CON MILES I, 2002, HDB KNOWLEDGE SOC FO MITROFF II, 1993, UNBOUNDED MIND BREAK MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS SIMON SC MOLDOVAN S, 2004, IN PRESS TECHNOL FOR, V71 MUSTAJOKI J, 2000, INF SYST OPER RES, V39, P208 NEDEVA M, 1999, PL9611 PHARE SCITECH PORTER AL, UNPUB TIPING SCALES PORTER AL, 1980, GUIDEBOOK TECHNOLOGY PORTER AL, 2004, IN PRESS TECH MINING RANSLEY DL, 1996, COMPET INTELL REV, V7, P11 RHYNE RF, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P133 RINNE H, 2004, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V71, P67 ROTH AE, ECONOMICS, V98, P974 RYCROFT RW, 1999, COMPLEXITY CHALLENGE SAATY TL, 2001, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SAHAL DA, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P81 SALO A, IN PRESS INT J TECHN SALO A, 2003, J FORECASTING, V22, P235 SAVRANSKY SD, 2000, ENG CREATIVITY INTRO SCHWARTZ P, 1992, ART LONG VIEW SMITS R, 2002, STRATEGIC POLICY INT SMITS R, 2002, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V69, P861 STEINMULLER K, 1995, BEITRAGE GRUNDFRAGEN STOVER J, 1975, P 1975 SUM COMP C SA WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 WOLFRAM S, 2002, NEW KIND SCI ZWICKY F, 1962, MONOGRAPHS MORPHOLOG, V1 NR 86 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 71 IS 3 BP 287 EP 303 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 770CC UT ISI:000188704800005 ER PT J AU Phaal, R Farrukh, CJP Probert, DR TI Technology roadmapping - A planning framework for evolution and revolution SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology roadmapping; evolution; revolution ID INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGY; FORESIGHT; BUSINESS; DISCONTINUITIES; TRANSITIONS; MANAGEMENT AB Technology roadmapping is a flexible technique that is widely used within industry to support strategic and long-range planning. The approach provides a structured (and often graphical) means for exploring and communicating the relationships between evolving and developing markets, products and technologies over time. It is proposed that the roadmapping technique can help companies survive in turbulent environments by providing a focus for scanning the environment and a means of tracking the performance of individual, including potentially disruptive, technologies. Technology roadmaps are deceptively simple in terms of format, but their development poses significant challenges. In particular the scope is generally broad, covering a number of complex conceptual and human interactions. This paper provides an overview of the origins of technology roadmapping, by means of a brief review of the technology and knowledge management foundations of the technique in the context of the fields of technology strategy and technology transitions. The rapidly increasing literature on roadmapping itself is presented in terms of a taxonomy for classifying roadmaps, in terms of both organizational purpose and graphical format. This illustrates the flexibility of the approach but highlights a key gap-a robust process for technology roadmapping. A fast-start method for technology roadmapping developed by the authors is introduced and described. Developed in collaboration with industry, this method provides a means for improved understanding of the architecture of roadmaps and for rapidly initiating roadmapping in a variety of organizational contexts. This paper considers the use of the roadmaps from two main perspectives. The first is a company perspective: roadmaps that allow technology developments to be integrated with business planning, and the impact of new technologies and market developments to be assessed. The second perspective is multiorganizational: roadmaps that seek to capture the environmental landscape, threats and opportunities for a particular group of stakeholders in a technology or application area. Two short illustrative cases show the fast-start method in use in the context of disruptive technological trends from these two perspectives. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Cambridge, Dept Engn, Cambridge CB2 1RX, England. RP Phaal, R, Univ Cambridge, Dept Engn, Mill Lane, Cambridge CB2 1RX, England. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 5 EP 26 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900002 ER PT J AU Saritas, O Oner, MA TI Systemic analysis of UK foresight results - Joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE integrated management model; roadmapping; foresight ID INTELLIGENT ORGANIZATIONS; TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AB This paper proposes a new systems approach to foresight studies. The paper will first indicate the complex and conflicting nature of long-term decision-making process. Then, the need for systems approach will be highlighted by the analysis of 1995 UK Delphi survey results and the scenarios of 2000 UK foresight scenarios. The paper proposes two methodologies, namely Integrated Management Model (IMM) and Roadmapping, in order to overcome challenges introduced by the multidimensional characteristics and complex nature of foresight studies. Based on systemic approach, HAM offers a useful way of developing long-term normative policies and strategies and their transformations into actions by considering necessary changes in organizational structures and behaviors. In addition, roadmapping is used to capture, manipulate and manage information to decrease complexity in the foresight by constructing roadmaps. In the paper, IMM and roadmapping are employed first to analyze UK foresight results and then to develop a new methodology to formulate Delphi events and scenarios for the successful implementation of foresight. This paper also promotes the integrated use of foresight techniques such as scenarios and Delphi rather than one for another. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Manchester, PREST, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. Yeditepe Univ, Dept Business Adm, Mfg & Technol Strategies Res Grp, TR-34755 Istanbul, Turkey. RP Saritas, O, Univ Manchester, PREST, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 27 EP 65 PG 39 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900003 ER PT J AU Rinne, M TI Technology roadmaps: Infrastructure for innovation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology roadmaps; technological innovation; virtual innovation ID SCIENCE AB The value of technology roadmaps for technology planning, technology selection, and technological innovation has become widely recognized. In this article, we explore how technology roadmaps can support virtual innovation and innovation factories. We also consider how technology landscapes can provide metrics for technology roadmaps. We explore how knowledge of patterns of technological evolution can be incorporated into technology roadmaps to detect opportunities for innovation and possible market limitations. Finally, we discuss how agent models can provide the basis for simulation and possibly for self-organization. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Portland State Univ, Engn & Technol Management Dept, Portland, OR 97207 USA. RP Rinne, M, Portland State Univ, Engn & Technol Management Dept, POB 751, Portland, OR 97207 USA. EM mrinne@pdx.edu CR ARTHUR WB, 1987, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P590 ASHBY WR, 1957, INTRO CYBERNETICS CHRISTENSEN C, 1997, INNOVATORS DILEMMA N COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 EPSTEIN JM, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S GALVIN R, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P803 HARGADON A, 2000, HARVARD BUS REV, V78, P157 HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 KAPPEL TA, 2001, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V18, P39 KOSTOFF RN, 2001, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V48, P132 LINSTONE HA, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH LINSTONE HA, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P1 LOBO J, 1999, LANDSCAPES NATURAL E MAIDIQUE MA, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P299 PHAAL R, 2001, TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPI RINNE M, 2003, PORTL INT C ENG TECH ROSENBLOOM A, 2003, COMMUN ACM, V46, P28 SCHRAGE M, 2000, SERIOUS PLAY WORLDS SHAPIRO C, 1999, INFORMATION RULES ST NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 67 EP 80 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900004 ER PT J AU Petrick, IJ Echols, AE TI Technology roadmapping in review: A tool for making sustainable new product development decisions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE roadmapping; technology choice; new product development; investment risk; supply chain integration ID RESOURCE-BASED THEORY; COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE; PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM; FIRM; INDUSTRY; SUPPLIER; DISCONTINUITIES; ALLIANCES; KNOWLEDGE; PERSPECTIVES AB Typically, firms decide whether or not to develop a new product based on their resources, capabilities and the return on investment that the product is estimated to generate. We propose that firms adopt a broader heuristic for making new product development choices. Our heuristic approach requires moving beyond traditional finance-based thinking, and suggests that firms concentrate on technological trajectories by combining technology roadmapping, information technology (IT) and supply chain management to make more sustainable new product development decisions. Using the proposed holistic heuristic methods, versus relying on traditional finance-based decision-making tools (e.g., emphasizing net present value or internal rate of return projections), enables firms to plan beyond the short-term and immediate set of technologies at hand. Our proposed heuristic approach enables firms to forecast technologies and markets, and hence, new product priorities in the longer term. Investments in new products should, as a result, generate returns over a longer period than traditionally expected, giving firms more sustainable investments. New products are costly and need to have a durable presence in the market. Transaction costs and resources will be saved, as firms make new product development decisions less frequently. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Penn State Univ, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Management & Org, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Petrick, IJ, Penn State Univ, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 81 EP 100 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900005 ER PT J AU Galvin, R TI Roadmapping - A practitioner's update SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Execut Comm Motorola, Schaumburg, IL USA. RP Galvin, R, Execut Comm Motorola, Schaumburg, IL USA. EM Bob.Galvin@motorola.com NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 101 EP 103 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900006 ER PT J AU Linton, JD TI Determining demand, supply, and pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive process technologies SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE disruptive; shortage; emerging markets; pricing ID FORESIGHT; BOOTSTRAP; POLICY; MODEL; SUBSTITUTION; GROWTH; RELEVANCE; EQUATIONS; INDUSTRY; DYNAMICS AB A model for forecasting the likely market size and demand for an early-stage emerging process technology is considered. This method takes into account markets, supply, demand, supply/demand gap, pricing, implications to government policy, corporate strategy, and value of intellectual property. For the purpose of illustration, forecasting of microsystems is considered. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Lally Sch Management & Technol, Troy, NY 12180 USA. RP Linton, JD, Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Lally Sch Management & Technol, 110 8th St, Troy, NY 12180 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 105 EP 120 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900007 ER PT J AU Vojak, BA Chambers, FA TI Roadmapping disruptive technical threats and opportunities in complex, technology-based subsystems: The SAILS methodology SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology roadmapping; subsystem-level industry; SAILS methodology ID INNOVATION; SCIENCE AB A heuristic methodology, based on observations of past patterns of change across several complex, technology-based, subsystem-level industries, is presented for the identification of potentially disruptive technologies. This methodology can be used to both guide the intuition of the senior technical visionary and aid in the formation of the intuition of more junior technologists as they develop the insight required to predict the future of technology. The five components of this methodology are recurring contributors to disruption at the subsystem level of the value chain: standards, architectures, integration, linkages, and substitutions (SAILS). The SAILS methodology is elucidated by applying it, both retrospectively and prospectively, to three complex, technology-based, subsystem-level examples: frequency generation subsystems in wireless communication super-systems; optical multiplexing subsystems in optical communication supersystems; and high voltage electrical subsystems in automotive supersystems. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Illinois, Dept Gen Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. F Chambers & Associates Inc, Raymond, ME 04071 USA. RP Vojak, BA, Univ Illinois, Dept Gen Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 121 EP 139 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900008 ER PT J AU Kostoff, RN Boylan, R Simons, GR TI Disruptive technology roadmaps SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE text mining; literature-based discovery; innovation; workshops; roadmaps; disruptive technologies; interdisciplinary; multidisciplinary; clustering ID LITERATURE-BASED DISCOVERY; FISH-OIL; DISCONTINUOUS INNOVATION; DATABASE TOMOGRAPHY; INFORMATION; SCIENCE; RAYNAUDS AB Disruptive technologies create growth in the industries they penetrate or create entirely new industries through the introduction of products and services that are dramatically cheaper, better, and more convenient. These disruptive technologies often disrupt workforce participation by allowing technologically unsophisticated individuals to enter and become competitive in the industrial workforce. Disruptive technologies offer a revolutionary change in the conduct of processes or operations. Disruptive technologies can evolve from the confluence of seemingly diverse technologies or can be a result of an entirely new technological investigation. Existing planning processes are notoriously poor in identifying the mix of sometimes highly disparate technologies required to address the multiple performance objectives of a particular niche in the market. For a number of reasons, especially the inability to look beyond short-term profitability, and the risk/return tradeoff of longer term projects, it is suggested that current strategic planning and management processes promote sustaining technologies at the expense of disruptive technologies. We propose a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies that is realistic and operable and takes advantage of the text mining literature. This literature-based discovery process is especially useful in identifying potential disruptive technologies that may require the input from many diverse technological and management areas. We believe that this process holds great potential for identifying projects with a higher probability of downstream success. Further, we suggest a process to take the identified potential disruptive technology from the "idea stage" through to the development of a potentially feasible product for the market. This second stage makes use of workshops and roadmapping to codify the ideas of technological and management experts, who were identified in the literature-based discovery stage. Our goal is to describe and explain the pragmatic steps suggested by our innovative and practical process. The proposed process could identify technologies whose eventual development and application to specific problems would generate innovative products. The goal is to isolate technologies that have the potential to redefine an industry, or alternatively, have the potential to create an entirely new industrial setting. Use the text-mining component of literature-based discovery to identify both the technical disciplines that are likely candidates for disruptive technological products, and experts in these critical technical and managerial disciplines. While we know that this is but one way to investigate nascent disruptive technologies we feel it is imperative that the representatives of these potentially critical technical disciplines are included in the roadmap development process, either as implementers or as consultants. Every firm is looking for "the next great thing". Literature-based discovery offers a starting point for identifying at least a portion of the major contributory technical and managerial disciplines necessary for potential disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations. Combining literature-based discovery with a practical workshop/roadmap process dramatically enhances the likelihood of success. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Off Naval Res, Arlington, VA 22217 USA. Univ N Florida, Coggin Coll Business, Jacksonville, FL 32224 USA. Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Lally Sch Management & Technol, Troy, NY 12180 USA. RP Kostoff, RN, Off Naval Res, 800 N Quincy St, Arlington, VA 22217 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 141 EP 159 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900009 ER PT J AU Walsh, ST TI Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study - The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological roadmapping; disruptive technologies; IIMTDNR ID DISCONTINUOUS INNOVATION; SCIENCE; BUSINESS; COMPETENCE; STRATEGY; FIRM AB If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the Intemational Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (UMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ New Mexico, Robert O Anderson Sch Management, Albuquerque, NM 87122 USA. RP Walsh, ST, Univ New Mexico, Robert O Anderson Sch Management, Albuquerque, NM 87122 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 161 EP 185 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900010 ER PT J AU Linstone, HA TI From my perspective - From information age to molecular age SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID EMERGENCE CR 2003, NY TIMES 0408, C2 *AD LITTL INC, 1959, BAS RES NAV *US DEP DEF, 1957, 3210 US DOD CASTI J, 1990, SEARCHING CERTAINTY, P407 CLARKE DW, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V64, P133 EPSTEIN JM, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S GOLDENBERG J, 2001, MANAGE SCI, V47, P69 GOLDENBERG J, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P293 GOLDENBERG J, 2004, IN PRESS TECHNOL FOR, V71 GORDON TJ, 2003, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V70, P397 KAUFFMAN S, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE KOSTOFF RN, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P223 LEMPERT RJ, 2003, SHAPING NEXT 100 YEA LINSTONE HA, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH LINSTONE HA, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P79 MEYER C, 2003, ITS ALIVE COMING CON PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV RHEA M, 2003, ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SAMUELSON DA, 2003, ORMS TODAY JUN, P20 NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 2004 VL 71 IS 1-2 BP 187 EP 196 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 763DQ UT ISI:000188059900011 ER PT J AU Devezas, T Modelski, G TI Power law behavior and world system evolution: A millennial learning process SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE power law behavior; world system evolution; millennial learning process AB Is social change on the scale of the human species a millennial learning process? The authors answer in the affirmative, demonstrating that world system evolution, viewed as a cascade of multilevel, nested, and self-similar, Darwinian-like processes ranging in "size" from one to over 250 generations, exhibits power law behavior, which is also known as self-organized criticality. World social organization, poised as it is on the boundary between order and chaos, is neither subcritical nor supercritical, and that allows for flexibility, which is a necessary condition of evolution and learning, and these in turn account for the major transitions marking world history and serving as the general framework for long-range forecasting. A literature review confirms the close affinity between evolution and learning, mathematical analysis reveals the crucial role of the learning rate as pacemaker of evolutionary change, and empirical evidence supports the concept of a cascade of evolutionary processes. The general equation describing world system emergence shows it to be a project whose cut-rent period is now 80% complete, suggesting that its major features might now be in place. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Beira Interior, Fac Engn, P-6200001 Covilha, Portugal. Univ Washington, Dept Polit Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Devezas, T, Univ Beira Interior, Fac Engn, P-6200001 Covilha, Portugal. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2003 VL 70 IS 9 BP 819 EP 859 PG 41 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 747YA UT ISI:000186832800001 ER PT J AU Archibugi, D Pietrobelli, C TI The globalisation of technology and its implications for developing countries - Windows of opportunity or further burden? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology transfer; transnational corporations; technological alliance; scientific collaborations ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; CAPABILITIES; INNOVATION; PATTERNS; GROWTH; TRENDS AB On the basis of a categorisation of ways in which the generated knowledge is transmitted, this paper explores the impact of the different forms of the globalisation of technology on developing countries. Through travelling, media, scientific and technical workshops, Internet and many other communication channels, globalisation allows the transmission of knowledge at a much greater pace than in the past. However, this does not automatically imply that developing countries succeed to benefit from technological advances. On the contrary, this will strongly rely on the nature of the technology and of the policies implemented in both advanced and developing countries. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 CNR, I-00185 Rome, Italy. Univ Rome 3, I-00154 Rome, Italy. RP Archibugi, D, CNR, Via Taurini 19, I-00185 Rome, Italy. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2003 VL 70 IS 9 BP 861 EP 883 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 747YA UT ISI:000186832800002 ER PT J AU Sohn, SY Moon, TH TI Structural equation model for predicting technology commercialization success index (TCSI) SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology commercialization success index (TCSI); structural equation model (SEM); partial least square (PLS); information technology AB Expecting high return, many firms try to invest on R&D of new technology. However, critical loss of assets would occur, when a firm fails to commercialize the developed technology. It would be of interest to provide the ideal environment for commercialization from the R&D stage. In this study, we use a structural equation model (SEM) to forecast the technology commercialization success index (TCSI) in relation to technology developer, technology receiver, technology transfer center, and environmental factors. The proposed SEM is fitted based on partial least square (PLS) estimation procedure. Individual TCSI is then found following the approach used for American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) for various combinations of characteristics of the type of technology, technology receiver, and technology developer. We expect that the proposed approach for TCSI can be used as guidance for an ideal match of technology with technology developer and technology receiver. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Yonsei Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Ind Syst Engn, Sudaemoon Ku, Seoul 120749, South Korea. RP Sohn, SY, Yonsei Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Ind Syst Engn, Sudaemoon Ku, 134 Shinchon Dong, Seoul 120749, South Korea. CR *I INF TECHN ASS T, 1998, DISC TECHN MARK STRA *KOR NAT STAT OFF, 2000, MAJ STAT KOR EC BARZAKAY SN, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P143 COOPER RG, 1986, WINNING NEW PRODUCTS DIJKSTRA T, 1983, J ECONOMETRICS, V22, P67 FORNELL C, 1982, J MARKETING RES, V19, P440 FORNELL C, 1992, J MARKETING, V56, P6 FORNELL C, 1996, J MARKETING, V60, P7 LASSERRE P, 1982, LONG RANGE PLANN, V15, P51 LOHMOLLER JB, 1984, MULTIVARIATE BEHAV R, V23, P125 REDDY NM, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P285 RODGERS W, 1999, J ECON PSYCHOL, V20, P14 SOHN SY, 1996, J QUAL TECHNOL, V27, P71 SOHN SY, 2002, J KOREAN I IND ENG, V28, P201 SOUDER WE, 1990, J TECHNOL TRANSFER, V15, P5 NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2003 VL 70 IS 9 BP 885 EP 899 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 747YA UT ISI:000186832800003 ER PT J AU Steffens, PR TI A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE marketing models; diffusion; durable products; ownership ID POTENTIAL ADOPTER POPULATION; INNOVATION DIFFUSION; CONSUMER DURABLES; PRODUCT-GROWTH; PURCHASES AB This paper develops and tests a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition. Multiple-unit adoptions are a major component of sales for many consumer durable product categories. For instance, sales of multiple-unit adoptions for televisions have been higher than both first adoptions and replacement purchases since 1977, while for automobiles, they have represented more than 20% of sales since 1966 in Australia. The structural drivers of multiple-unit adoptions are quite different from either first purchase or replacement purchase. Hence, identifying and modeling the multiple-unit component of sales is important for aggregate sales forecasts. Moreover, consumer requirements for additional units of a product are likely to be considerably different than for the other components of sales (first purchases and replacement purchases). As such, the ratio of the first, multiple, and replacement sales components will strongly influence the product mix requirements of the market. While forecasting and influencing multiple-unit sales are an important managerial issue, very little attention has been given to multiple-unit ownership in the diffusion modeling literature. The only model available was developed for the purpose of modeling relatively short-term behavior of multiple-unit adoptions, rather than the longer-term pattern of sales. We propose a model of multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process. We apply the model to both color television and automobiles. Analysis of the model's long-term fit and forecasts in these applications provide support for the structure of the new model. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Queensland, Technol & Innovat Management Ctr, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. RP Steffens, PR, Univ Queensland, Technol & Innovat Management Ctr, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2003 VL 70 IS 9 BP 901 EP 917 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 747YA UT ISI:000186832800004 ER PT J AU Martino, JP TI A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological forecasting; environmental scanning; Delphi ID MODEL; DIFFUSION; FUTURE; SUBSTITUTION; GENERATIONS; PROGRESS; GROWTH; CURVES; DELPHI AB During the past decade, there have been some significant developments in technological forecasting methodology. This paper describes developments in environmental scanning, models, scenarios, Delphi, extrapolation, probabilistic forecasts, technology measurement and some chaos-like behavior in technological data. Some of these developments are refinements of earlier methodology, such as using computerized data mining (DM) for environmental scanning, which extends the power of earlier methods. Other methodology developments, such as the use of cellular automata and object-oriented simulation, represent new approaches to basic forecasting methods. Probabilistic forecasts were developed only within the past decade, but now appear ready for practical use. Other developments include the wide use of some methods, such as the massive national Delphi studies carried out in Japan, Korea, Germany and India. Other new developments include empirical tests of various trend extrapolation methods, to assist the forecaster in selecting the appropriate trend model for a specific case. Each of these developments is discussed in detail. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. RP Martino, JP, 905 S Main Ave, Sidney, OH 45365 USA. CR AYRES RU, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P213 BHARGAVA SC, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P87 BHARGAVA SC, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P27 CHAKRAVARTI AK, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P155 CHRISTODOULOU K, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P203 DEBECKER A, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V46, P153 DEKIMPE MG, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P25 DRANSFELD H, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P81 FRANSES PH, 1994, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V46, P45 GAUSEMEIER J, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P111 GOLDENBERG J, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P293 ISLAM T, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P49 JENKINS L, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V55, P15 JUN DB, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P45 KAYAL A, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P237 MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 SHIN T, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P125 WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 YOUNG P, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P375 NR 19 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2003 VL 70 IS 8 BP 719 EP 733 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 719QW UT ISI:000185216500002 ER PT J AU Watts, RJ Porter, AL TI R&D cluster quality measures and technology maturity SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE R&D cluster quality measures; technology maturity; innovation indicators AB "Innovation indicators" strive to track the maturation of an emerging technology to help forecast its prospective development. One rich source of information is the changing content of discourse of R&D, as the technology progresses. We analyze the content of research paper abstracts obtained by searching large databases on a given topic. We then map the evolution of that topic's emphasis areas. The present research seeks to validate a process that creates factors (clusters) based on term usage in technical papers. Three composite quality measures-cohesion, entropy, and F measure-are computed. Using these measures, we create standard factor groupings that optimize the composite term sets and facilitate comparisons of the R&D emphasis areas (i.e., clusters) over time. The conceptual foundation for this approach lies in the presumption that domain knowledge expands and becomes more application specific in nature as a technology matures. We hypothesize implications for this knowledge expansion in terms of the three factor measures, then observe these empirically for the case of a particular technology-autonomous navigation. These metrics can provide indicators of technological maturation. Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 USA, Tank Automot & Armaments Command, Adv Vehicle Technol, Warren, MI 48397 USA. Search Technol Inc, Norcross, GA 30071 USA. Georgia Inst Technol, Technol Policy & Assessment Ctr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Watts, RJ, USA, Tank Automot & Armaments Command, Adv Vehicle Technol, Warren, MI 48397 USA. CR BORNER K, IN PRESS ARIST, P37 CARLISLE JP, 1999, P CD MOD TECHN INT S CHEN CM, 2002, J AM SOC INF SCI TEC, V53, P678 DEERWESTER S, 1990, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V41, P391 LOSIEWICZ P, 2000, J INTELL INF SYST, V15, P99 PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME PORTER AL, 1994, SRA J, V21, P21 PORTER AL, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P237 PORTER AL, 2002, SCIENTOMETRICS, V53, P351 SOUDER WM, 1987, MANAGING NEW PRODUCT, P199 STEINBACH M, 2000, 00034 U MINN VANRAAN AFJ, 1993, RES EVALUAT, V3, P151 WATTS RJ, UNPUB J AM SOC INF S WATTS RJ, 1997, 1 EUR S PKDD 97 PRIN, P323 WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 WATTS RJ, 1998, COMPET INTELL REV, V9, P1 WATTS RJ, 1999, INF KNOWL SYST MANAG, V1, P45 ZHU D, 94 TOA ZHU SP, 1999, COMPUTAT ENGN, V1, P1 NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2003 VL 70 IS 8 BP 735 EP 758 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 719QW UT ISI:000185216500003 ER PT J AU Meade, N Islam, T TI Modelling the dependence between the times to international adoption of two related technologies SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE fax; cell phone; Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern ID DURATION DATA; DIFFUSION; DISTRIBUTIONS; REPLACEMENT; BEHAVIOR; IMPACT AB The structure of the dependence between the times to adoption by a country of two related innovations, the fax and the cellular telephone, is modelled in two stages. The first stage is the choice of density function for the time to adoption. The second stage is describing the dependence relation. For the first stage, a Weibull density function is used with its scale factor adapted to account for the economic and technological environments in different countries. Environmental data are collected from several sources. Copulas are used to model the dependence relation, three single parameter copulas are considered, those due to Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM), Frank and Plackett. Their properties are described and a combined estimation of the copula and density function parameters carried out. The limitations of the FGM copula rule it out from further consideration. The other copulas coupled with the Weibull, using eight environmental variables, are shown to provide valuable insights into the effects of environmental variables on adoption times. Given that a country has adopted one technology, the model of the dependence relation is used to provide the conditional density of the time to adoption of the other technology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ London, Imperial Coll Management Sch, London SW7 2PG, England. Univ Guelph, Dept Consumer Studies, Guelph, ON, Canada. RP Meade, N, Univ London, Imperial Coll Management Sch, Exhibit Rd,53 Princes Gate, London SW7 2PG, England. CR *EC INT UN, 1999, COUNTR RISK GLOB PRO CHINTAGUNTA PK, 1998, J MARKETING RES, V35, P43 DEKIMPE MG, 1998, MANAGE SCI 1, V44, P1478 DEKIMPE MG, 2000, J MARKETING RES, V37, P47 DEKIMPE MG, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P25 FRANK MJ, 1979, AEQUATIONES MATH, V19, P194 GANESH J, 1997, J ACAD MARKET SCI, V25, P214 GREENE W, 2000, ECONOMETRIC ANAL HAN A, 1990, J APPL ECONOM, V5, P1 HECKMAN J, 1984, ECONOMETRICA, V52, P271 HECKMAN JJ, 1982, MULTIDIMENSIONAL MAT, P567 HELSEN K, 1993, MARKET SCI, V11, P395 HOFESTEDE G, 1997, CULTURE ORG SOFTWARE ISLAM T, 2000, EUR J OPER RES, V125, P551 JAIN DC, 1991, MARKET SCI, V10, P1 JOE H, 1997, MULTIVARIATE MODELS JOHNSON NL, 1975, COMM STAT, V4, P415 KAMAKURA WA, 1987, J FORECASTING, V6, P1 MEYER BD, 1990, ECONOMETRICA, V58, P757 NELSEN RB, 1999, LECT NOTES STAT PLACKETT RL, 1965, J AM STAT ASSOC, V60, P516 PORTER ME, 2000, GLOBAL COMPETITIVENE, P40 PUTSIS WP, 1997, MARKET SCI, V16, P354 SCHMITTLEIN DC, 1983, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V32, P1 VANHUELE M, 1995, ORGAN BEHAV HUM, V62, P1 WARNER AM, 2000, EC CREATIVITY GLOBAL, P28 NR 26 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2003 VL 70 IS 8 BP 759 EP 778 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 719QW UT ISI:000185216500004 ER PT J AU Mann, DL TI Better technology forecasting using systematic innovation methods SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE TRIZ; design; trends AB An evolved version of the Soviet-originated Theory of Inventive Problem Solving, TRIZ, contains a series of generically predictable technology and business evolution trends uncovered from the systematic analysis of over 2 million patents, academic journals and business texts. The current state of the art-recorded for the first time together in this paper-now bring the total number of generic technical trends to over 30, and the number of business trends to over 20. The paper describes some of the newly discovered trends, and their incorporation into a design method that allows individuals and businesses to first establish the relative maturity of their current systems, and then, more importantly, to identify areas where 'evolutionary potential' exists. The paper introduces this concept of evolutionary potential-defined as the difference between the relative maturity of the current system, and the point where it has reached the limits of each of the evolution trends-through a number of case study examples focused on the design and evolution of complex systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 CREAX, Clevedon BS21 7SU, N Somerset, England. RP Mann, DL, CREAX, POB 93, Clevedon BS21 7SU, N Somerset, England. CR 2000, CREATRIZ MANAGERS BU ALTSHULLER GS, 1984, CREATIVITY EXACT SCI MANN DL, 2000, DESIGN COMPROMISE DE MANN DL, 2002, HANDS SYSTEMATIC INN PINE BJ, 1999, EXPERIENCE EC SALAMATOV Y, 1999, TRIZ RIGHT SOLUTION UTTERBACK J, 1995, MASTERING DYNAMICS E NR 7 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2003 VL 70 IS 8 BP 779 EP 795 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 719QW UT ISI:000185216500005 ER PT J AU Harries, C TI Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE scenario-based decision making; scenario planning; decision making ID JUDGMENT; IMPACT; PREFERENCE; CHOICE; FUTURE; MODEL AB This paper provides a framework for the evaluation of scenario planning and other strategic decision making methods or techniques. If scenario planning is useful, we should be teaching it in schools and we as individuals should be using it to cope with the uncertainty inherent in modem life. A prerequisite to this is the need to identify why, where and how (in what way) scenario planning and other methods or techniques are useful. Here, I review evaluations of scenario planning. Taking a Brunswikian perspective, I highlight the issues that have failed to be addressed in this evaluation. I demonstrate that there are many ways in which scenario planning could be useful other than those that have appeared in previous discussions. These multiple routes are dependent upon the interaction between the individual organisation, the environment in which they are operating and the method being followed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Business, Ctr Decis Res, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. RP Harries, C, Univ Leeds, Sch Business, Ctr Decis Res, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2003 VL 70 IS 8 BP 797 EP 817 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 719QW UT ISI:000185216500006 ER PT J AU Conceicao, P Heitor, MV Veloso, F TI Infrastructures, incentives, and institutions: Fostering distributed knowledge bases for the leaming society SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE infrastructures; incentives; institutions ID TECHNOLOGY POLICY; SCIENCE; ECONOMY; INNOVATION AB While much attention has been devoted to information and communication technologies, a more fundamental change at the start of the new millennium is the increasing importance of innovation for economic prosperity and the emergence of a learning society. The analysis in this paper shows that innovation should be understood as a broad social and economic activity: it should transcend any specific technology, even if revolutionary, and should be tied to attitudes and behaviors oriented towards the exploitation of change by adding value. We build on the idea of inclusive learning, which entails a process of shared prosperity across the globe following local specific conditions, and argue that it is crucial to understand the features of knowledge-induced growth in rich countries, as well as the challenges and opportunities for late-industrialized and less-developed countries. To achieve these objectives, we emphasize the relative importance of infrastructures and incentives, but considering the increasingly important role of institutions towards the development of social capital. This is because learning societies will increasingly rely on "distributed knowledge bases" as a systematically coherent set of knowledge maintained across an economically and/or socially integrated set of agents and institutions. This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present paper, which builds on material presented at the 5th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), which was held in Delft, The Netherlands, in June of 2001. Under the broad designation of "critical infrastructures," the Conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy and management in a context much influenced by the dynamics of the process of knowledge accumulation, which drives learning societies. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended contributions to the Delft conference, and the aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views on the role critical infrastructures play to foster innovation in the learning society. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Innovat Technol & Policy Res IN, Lisbon, Portugal. Univ Catolica Portuguesa, Fac Ciencias Econ & Empresariais, P-1649023 Lisbon, Portugal. RP Conceicao, P, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Innovat Technol & Policy Res IN, Lisbon, Portugal. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 70 IS 7 BP 583 EP 617 PG 35 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 709YC UT ISI:000184653300001 ER PT J AU Kuhlmann, S Edler, J TI Scenarios of technology and innovation policies in Europe: Investigating future governance SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation policy; research and technology policy; European integration; innovation system; political system AB In Europe, public research, technology and innovation policies are no longer exclusively in the hands of national authorities: increasingly, national initiatives are supplemented by, or even competing with, regional innovation policies or transnational programmes, in particular the activities of the European Union. At the same time, industrial innovation increasingly occurs within international networks. Are we witnessing a change of governance in European innovation policy? Based on some theoretical assumptions concerning the relationship between the "political systems" and "innovation systems" in Europe, the paper speculates about the future governance of innovation policies, trying to pave ways for empirical analyses. It sketches three scenarios stretching from (1) the idea of an increasingly centralised and dominating European innovation policy arena to (2) the opposite, i.e., a progressive decentralisation and open competition between partly strengthened, partly weakened national or regional innovation systems and finally to (3) the vision of a centrally "mediated" mixture of competition and cooperation between diverse regional innovation cultures and a related governance structure. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst, Dept Innovat Studies, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. RP Kuhlmann, S, Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI, Breslauer Str 48, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 70 IS 7 BP 619 EP 637 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 709YC UT ISI:000184653300002 ER PT J AU Riggle, JD Stough, RR TI Evaluating state cooperative technology programs: With a Virginia case study, and comparative data from Illinois SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE economic development; technology; Virginia; Illinois AB One of the strategies for economic development to emerge during the 1970s and 1980s to stem decline due to industrial restructuring in the United States was the formation of science and technology initiatives in many states. This strategy was of interest because it suggests the creation of high-wage jobs through the application and development of technology. States in the industrialized part of the United States were losing large numbers of high-wage industrial jobs, as restructuring occurred and the jobs moved offshore or were replaced with technology. These initiatives took several forms including, in some states, departments or secretariats of technology, the formation of authorities that were state agencies but one step removed from the legislature and executive branches and the initiatives that were set up as nonprofit corporations. Today, science and technology programs exist in every state of the United States. In the mid-1990s, the authors were asked to develop a methodology to measure the outputs and outcomes of one of the state centers in science and technology, a program that was increasingly being focused on technology and commercialization rather than primarily on basic or pure research. A methodology was created by the authors in collaboration with the Battelle Institute and was implemented first in 1996. The purpose of this paper is to explain the methodology developed and how it was implemented in an effort to illustrate a number of issues that arise around the issue of evaluating such programs and to explore the policy impact of such studies. The issues include sample selection, survey design, interview protocol, management of client And research team relations, validity and research protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 George Mason Univ, Sch Publ Policy, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. RP Riggle, JD, George Mason Univ, Sch Publ Policy, MS 3C6,Finley Bldg,4400 Univ Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. CR *US BUR CENS, 1997, STAT ABSTR US, P312 *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1995, OTAETI643 COBURN C, 1995, PARTNERSHIPS COMPEND LOWI T, WORLD POLITICS, V16, P677 RIGGLE JD, 1998, SUMMARY REPORT VIRGI WITTER K, 1998, COMMUNICATIONS NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 70 IS 7 BP 639 EP 651 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 709YC UT ISI:000184653300003 ER PT J AU Blind, K Hipp, C TI The role of quality standards in innovative service companies: An empirical analysis for Germany SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE service companies; quality standard; ISO 9000 ID INFORMATION AB Proceeding from theoretical hypotheses, driving forces for the introduction of the ISO 9000ff series in innovative service companies are analysed. Based on the European Community Innovation Survey (CIS), a probit model is estimated with different explanatory variables based on a sample of innovative German service companies. The first analysis of the role of the quality standard ISO 9000ff in German innovative service companies, based on general hypotheses concerning the role of quality standards, produced elucidating results. Besides sector- and size-specific differences, the use of "risky" technologies positively influences the probability of introducing ISO 9000ff. This quality standard has another twofold impact: First, as expected, it is a quality seal for the customers of the service company, especially in markets with homogeneous products and average qualities. Second, the introduction of ISO 9000ff has impacts on the internal processes of the service companies. In contrast to a conventional product standard, it supports the management in being flexible, especially towards the preferences of the customers and in reaching project deadlines. However, the introduction may also increase the pressure on the employees who are therefore evidently more reluctant about its introduction. Consequently, the empirical results underpin most of the theoretical hypotheses on the role of quality standards in service companies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Tech Univ Hamburg, D-2100 Hamburg, Germany. RP Blind, K, Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res, Breslauer Str 48, D-49139 Karlsruhe, Germany. CR *CEN, 1996, SERV STAND *ISO, 1995, ISO B, P7 *OECD, 1997, PROP GUID COLL INT T BARRAS R, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P161 BLIND K, 2002, STANDARDS SERVICE SE DAVIS L, 1997, QUALITY ASSURANCE D DEVRIES H, 1997, TERMINOLOGY, V4, P55 DEVRIES HJ, 1997, P 1 INT WORKSH STAND, P311 DOCKING DS, 1999, J FINANC RES, V22, P147 HALLSTROM KT, 1996, REV EC IND, V75, P61 HARTLIEB B, 1996, DIN MITT, V75, P746 HAUSER H, 1979, KYKLOS, V32, P739 HIPP C, 2000, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V4, P417 LICHT G, 1997, INNOVATIONEN DIENSTL MUEHLBAUER H, 1999, STANDARDIZATION SERV NELSON P, 1970, J POLITICAL EC, V78, P311 PEPELS W, 1999, WISU, V5, P699 RESETARITS P, 1997, P 1 INT WORKSH STAND, P97 SHAPIRO C, 1983, Q J ECON, V98, P659 SIRILLI G, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P881 TETHER BS, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P1115 WITHERS BE, 1997, INT J PROD ECON, V53, P209 NR 22 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 70 IS 7 BP 653 EP 669 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 709YC UT ISI:000184653300004 ER PT J AU Mitsufuji, T TI How an innovation is formed: A case study of Japanese word processors SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation diffusion; self-organizing system; technology and society; Japanese word processors ID TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; DETERMINANTS; DIFFUSION; MODEL AB An innovation is formed in the social system through the diffusion process, and artifacts that embody the innovation alter their aspects considerably. This study proposes an innovation-diffusion model on the assumption that an innovation interacts with a social system, which shows dynamic and self-organizing characteristics. That is, firstly, an innovation appears that overthrows the existing technological paradigm. Secondly, after the appearance of an innovation, engineers or relevant professionals witnessing the innovation conduct various kinds of trial and error to compete with each other. Thirdly, under passing through the turmoil period, the social system in which an innovation has been implemented becomes changing its structure. Fourthly, once an innovation has surpassed the irreversible phase, obtaining the dominant design, it becomes embedded into the social system. In order to verify the model, I refer to the diffusion process of the Japanese word processors into the Japanese society around 1980s. Following the result of this study, this paper points out that the diffusion theory should be reconsidered, especially about the meanings of the critical mass, the dichotomy of the innovator-imitator model, and so on. Besides, strategic planners or policy makers would do well to construct innovation strategies or technology policies to implement the innovation by affecting such factors as the internal and external influence factors and the population of the potential adopters. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Siebold Univ Nagaski, Fac Global Commun, Jaoan 8512195, Japan. RP Mitsufuji, T, Siebold Univ Nagaski, Fac Global Commun, 1-1-1 Manabino, Jaoan 8512195, Japan. CR *CHUO CHOS SHA, 1998, STAT DIFF OA APP ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 ARTHUR B, 1988, EC EVOLVING COMPLEX BAK P, 1991, SCI AM, V264, P26 BAK P, 1996, NATURE WORKS SCI SEL BASALLA G, 1988, EVOLUTION TECHNOLOGY BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BIJKER WE, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 DOSI G, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI GEROSKI PA, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P603 HAKEN H, 1983, ADV SYNERGETICS HUGHES TP, 1983, NETWORKS POWER KAUFFMAN S, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE KLINE SJ, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG KODAMA F, 1991, EMERGING PATTERNS IN KRUGMAN P, 1996, SELF ORG EC KUHN TS, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LATOUR B, 1987, SCI ACTION LEYDESDORFF L, 1993, J SOC EVOL SYST, V16, P331 MAHAHAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATIONS D MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V14, P1 MATURANA H, 1980, AUTOPOIESIS COGNITIO MITSUFUJI T, 2001, DIFFUSING SOFTWARE P MORI K, 1989, BIRTH JAPANESE WORD NICOLOS G, 1989, PRIGOGINE EXPLORING OLIVER P, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V94, P502 RAI A, 1998, COMMUN ACM, V41, P97 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION TUSHMAN ML, 1992, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V14, P311 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I YAMAMOTO N, 1981, PRACTICAL USE JAPANE NR 33 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 70 IS 7 BP 671 EP 685 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 709YC UT ISI:000184653300005 ER PT J AU Santos, FM TI The coevolution of firms and their knowledge environment: Insights from the pharmaceutical industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE coevolution; knowledge environment; pharmaceutical industry; organizational learning; knowledge transfer; interfirm collaborations ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITY; ABSORPTIVE-CAPACITY; EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS; ACADEMIC RESEARCH; INNOVATION; BIOTECHNOLOGY; INTEGRATION; TRANSFORMATION; TECHNOLOGIES AB What are the most effective learning strategies for firms given the characteristics of their knowledge environment? This paper addresses this question by documenting the major changes in the knowledge environment of the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular emphasis on the period since the emergence of biotechnology, and discussing the related changes in the learning strategies of established pharmaceutical firms. Both the historical analysis and a review of the empirical research on organizational learning and knowledge transfer reveal a strong emphasis of firms on external learning through interfirm collaborations and sourcing of external knowledge. This learning strategy seems to be driven by the speed, uncertainty, and dispersion of knowledge developments in the industry. Studying the connections between the knowledge environment and the effectiveness of organizational learning processes is important to understand organizational change and adaptation, and is an area of research that deserves further attention. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Stanford Univ, Terman Engn Ctr, Dept Management Sci & Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Santos, FM, Stanford Univ, Terman Engn Ctr, Dept Management Sci & Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. CR *ERNST YOUNG, 1997, EUR BIOT 96 VOL VAL *NAT SCI BOARD, 1998, SCI ENG IND 1998 *OECD, 1993, GLOB IND ACT SECT CA *OTA, 1984, COMM TECHN INT AN *OTA, 1988, NEW DEV BIOT US BIOT ACHILLADELIS B, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P279 BARABASCHI S, 1992, TECHNOLOGY WLTH NATI, P407 BARLEY SR, 1998, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V15, P237 BASSALLA G, 1988, EVOLUTION TECHNOLOGY BERKLEY JD, 1992, PLANNING UNPLANNABLE BIERLY P, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P123 BRESNAHAN TF, 1995, J ECONOMETRICS, V65, P83 BROWN SL, 1997, ADMIN SCI QUART, V42, P1 CARR G, 1998, ECONOMIST COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 EISENHARDT KM, 2002, HDB STRATEGY MANAGEM, P139 GALAMBOS L, 1998, BUS HIST REV, V72, P250 GAMBARDELLA A, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P391 GAMBARDELLA A, 1995, SCI INNOVATION US PH, P199 GRANT RM, 1996, ORGAN SCI, V7, P375 GRANT RM, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P109 HANSMANN P, 1982, PLANT CELL REP, V1, P111 HELFAT CE, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V18, P339 HENDERSON R, 1994, HARVARD BUS REV JAN, P104 HENDERSON R, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P63 HENDERSON R, 1996, RAND J ECON, V27, P32 HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 HENDERSON RM, 1994, IND CORP CHANGE, V3, P607 JAFFE AB, 1993, Q J ECON, V108, P577 KUEMMERLE W, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P179 LANE PJ, 1998, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V19, P461 LEONARDBARTON D, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V13, P111 LEVITT B, 1988, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V14, P319 LIEBESKIND JP, 1996, ORGAN SCI, V7, P428 LORENZONI G, 1999, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V20, P317 MANSFIELD E, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P1047 MANSFIELD E, 1998, RES POLICY, V26, P773 MARCH JG, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P71 MOWERY DC, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P345 MOWERY DC, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P77 NADLER D, 1995, DISCONTINUOUS CHANGE NARIN F, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P139 NELSON RR, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P193 ODAGIRI H, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P335 OLIVER AL, 1998, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V27, P76 PISANO GP, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P153 PISANO GP, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P237 PISANO GP, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P85 POWELL WW, 1990, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V12, P295 POWELL WW, 1996, ADMIN SCI QUART, V41, P116 ROMANELLI E, 1994, ACAD MANAGE J, V37, P1141 ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC, CH7 ROSENKOPF L, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V22, P287 SCHMOOKLER J, 1962, J ECON HIST, V22, P1 SCHUMPETER J, 1942, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SENKER J, 1996, TECHNOVATION, V16, P219 SENKER J, 1997, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V9, P35 TEECE DJ, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V18, P509 TRIPSAS M, 1997, IND CORP CHANGE, V6, P341 TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 VOLBERDA HW, 1996, ORGAN SCI, V7, P359 ZUCKER LG, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P429 NR 64 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 70 IS 7 BP 687 EP 715 PG 29 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 709YC UT ISI:000184653300006 ER PT J AU Grammig, T TI Sociotechnical relations and development assistance SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE sociotechnical relations; development project management; process monitoring; process research; institutional development; appropriate technology; ethnography AB -Process research is increasingly used to assess and monitor the implementation of development projects. In natural resource management and agriculture, the results have contributed to consensus building amongst village groups, agricultural extension and other governmental agencies, NGOs, and donors. This paper draws on Latour's science studies programme to compare these results with process research in industrial development projects. Process research should reflect sociotechnical relations. Latour's definitions of sociotechnical relations thus allow us to describe the context of development projects and add to the theoretical framework of process research. Ethnographic methods reveal the insider perspective and implementation logic of development interventions also in industry. An interpretation of the ethnographic results according to the layer of sociotechnical relations is proposed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. RP Grammig, T, 185 Rue Ordener, F-75018 Paris, France. CR EKHOLM K, 1995, WORLDS APART MODERNI, P162 FEENBERG A, 1995, ALTERNATIVE MODERNIT GARDNER K, 1996, ANTHR DEV POSTMODERN GAULTUNG J, 1979, DEV ENV TECHNOLOGY T, P6 GOW D, 1989, SOCIAL ANAL 90 CASE GRAMMIG T, 2002, TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE GRAMMIG T, 2002, TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE, P164 HUGHES T, 1983, NETWORKS POWER KLITGAARD R, 1994, ENV SUSTAIN DEV P SE, V1, P75 LATOUR B, 1979, LAB LIFE SOCIAL CONS LATOUR B, 1987, SCI ACTION FOLLOW SC LATOUR B, 1994, COMMON KNOWLEDGE, V3, P29 LATOUR B, 1996, ARAMIS OR LOVE TECHN LATOUR B, 1999, ESSAYS REALITY SCI S LATOUR B, 1999, ESSAYS REALITY SCI S, P201 LATOUR B, 1999, ESSAYS REALITY SCI S, P204 LATOUR B, 1999, SOCIOL GENEAL COMMON, V3, P201 LATOUR B, 1999, SOCIOL GENEAL COMMON, V3, P204 LATOUR B, 1999, SOCIOL GENEAL COMMON, V3, P208 LAW J, 1996, ACCOUNTABILITY POWER, P283 LAW J, 1996, ACCOUNTABILITY POWER, P296 LAW J, 1996, ACCOUNTABILITY POWER, P300 LONG N, 1992, BATTLEFIELDS KNOWLED MONTEFORTE R, 1992, UTIL POLICY, V3, P149 MOOSE D, 1998, DEV PROCESS CONCEPTS, P12 MOOSE D, 1998, DEV PROCESS CONCEPTS, P155 MOSSE D, 1998, DEV PROCESS CONCEPTS MOSSE D, 1998, DEV PROCESS CONCEPTS, P41 MOSSE D, 1998, DEV PROCESS CONCEPTS, P50 MUMFORD L, 1966, MYTH MACHINE TECHNIC SALMEN L, 1987, LISTEN PEOPLE PARTIC SCHON D, 1999, HIGH TECHNOLOGY LOW VENERACION C, 1989, DECADE PROCESS DOCUM NR 33 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2003 VL 70 IS 6 BP 501 EP 523 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 689AC UT ISI:000183468600001 ER PT J AU Corrocher, N TI The diffusion of Internet telephony among consumers and firms - Current issues and future prospects SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE Internet telephony; diffusion of new technologies ID INNOVATION; ECONOMICS; PARADIGM; SYSTEMS; POLICY AB This paper analyses the current demand and market potential for Internet telephony-the transmission of voice over the public Internet or over a private Intranet-a technology that has attracted considerable attention as an appealing alternative to traditional telephony but that is likely to develop as a component within an integrated system of video, data and voice applications. The paper investigates technical, economic and social factors supporting and hindering the adoption of Internet telephony. In doing so, it relies upon the idea that the diffusion of Internet telephony is determined both by the attributes of the technological applications as perceived by the potential adopters, and by the characteristics of different users. According to this view, the research points out that relevant uncertainties reside on the demand side, particularly among residential users, and that in the future, businesses are more likely to adopt these applications than consumers. The assumptions concerning the future diffusion of Internet telephony are supported by the results of a survey carried out among a sample of Internet telephony service providers in Europe and North America. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Bocconi Univ, CESPRI, I-20136 Milan, Italy. RP Corrocher, N, Bocconi Univ, CESPRI, Via Sarfatti 25, I-20136 Milan, Italy. CR 1998, VOCALTEC COMMUNICATI *OECD WORK PART IN, 1998, INT VOIC TEL DEV *OECD, 2001, COMM OUTL ADELSON J, 1998, DIAL TONE OPPORTUNIT BABBAGE R, 1997, BT TECHNOL J, V15, P145 BIJKER W, 1995, BICYCLES BAKELITES B BIJKER WE, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION BOCZKOWSKI PJ, 1999, J COMMUN, V49, P86 CAWLEY RA, 1997, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V21, P513 CLARK D, 1997, TAXONOMY INTERNET TE DAVIES A, 1996, IND CORP CHANGE, V5, P1143 FOO S, 1998, INTERNET RES, V8, P14 FREEMAN C, 1991, REV ECON, V42, P211 HILL CWL, 1997, ACAD MANAGEMENT EXEC, V11, P7 HOPKINS M, 1998, INTERNET TELEPHONY S HOWARD J, 1998, INTERNET TELEPHONY R KARSHENAS M, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE, P263 KIM DJ, 1996, ORGAN SCI, V7, P283 KRUPINSKI D, 1997, INTRO INTERNET TELEP MANSELL R, 1996, COMMUNICATION DESIGN MARVIN C, 1988, OLD TECHNOLOGIES WER MCKNIGHT LW, 1998, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V22, P555 MILES I, 1994, CONSUMING TECHNOLOGI NOAM EM, 1987, J COMMUN, V37, P30 NOAM EM, 1994, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V18, P286 ONO R, 1998, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V22, P817 ORLIKOWSKI W, 1992, ORGAN SCI, V3, P397 RIP A, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P417 ROGERS EM, 1971, COMMUNICATION INNOVA ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SEARS A, 1996, INNOVATIONS INTERNET SHAPIRO C, 1999, INFORMATION RULES ST SILVERSTONE R, 1994, CONSUMING TECHNOLOGI, P15 SILVERSTONE R, 1996, COMMUNICATION DESIGN, P44 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 UTTERBACK J, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I NR 36 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2003 VL 70 IS 6 BP 525 EP 544 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 689AC UT ISI:000183468600002 ER PT J AU Das, GG Alavalapati, JRR TI Trade-mediated biotechnology transfer and its effective absorption: an application to the US forestry sector SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE total factor productivity; dynamic computable general equilibrium; capture parameter; forestry biotechnology ID SPILLOVERS; INNOVATION; TECHNOLOGY AB In this paper, we analyze the consequences of biotechnology innovations in the United States forest sector (logging) by modeling technology transfer embodied in trade flows and its absorption. A sevenregion, seven-traded-commodity version of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to achieve this task. A 0.63% Hicks-neutral biotechnological progress in the source region (U.S.) has differential impacts on the productivity of the log-using sectors in the domestic as well as in the recipient regions. Since recipient regions' ability to utilize biotechnology innovations depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS), we construct the AC and SS indices based on multiplicity of factors such as human capital endowments, skill content and social appropriateness of the new innovations. The model results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. forest sector result in a significant increase in timber production. Following the productivity improvements and its embodied spillover, wood products and pulp and paper sectors in the U.S. register higher productivity growth. The role of AC and SS in capturing technical change is shown to be evident. In the face of growing regulations on timber production from public forests, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet the consumer demand for forest products. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Florida, Inst Food & Agr Sci, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. RP Das, GG, Univ Florida, Inst Food & Agr Sci, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, POB 110 410, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. CR *OECD, 1997, SCI TECHN IND SCOR I *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1998 9 AMACHER GS, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P445 BAIG MB, 1995, GROWING SUSTAINABLE, P102 BAIG MB, 1995, GROWING SUSTAINABLE, P118 COE DT, 1997, ECON J, V107, P134 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 CONNOLLY MP, 1997, 9727 FED RES BANK NE, P1 DAS GG, 2000, P 3 ANN C GLOB EC AN, P1 DAS GG, 2000, THESIS MONASH U MELB DIETZENBACHER E, 2000, J POLICY MODEL, V22, P27 EATON J, 1996, NBER WORKING PAPER, P1 FAGERBERG J, 1994, J ECON LIT, V32, P1147 FONTES M, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V66, P59 GASTON C, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V50, P79 HARRISON WJ, 1996, COMPUTATIONAL EC, V9, P83 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HAYNES R, 2000, PROJECTIONS US TIMBE HERTEL TW, 1997, GLOBAL TRADE ANAL MO IANCHOVICHINA E, 1999, 2 ANN C GLOB EC AN C, P1 IANCHOVICHINA E, 2000, 17 GTAP PURD U CTR G, P1 KELLER W, 1999, NBER WORKING PAPER, V6990, P1 KELLER W, 2001, NBER WORKING PAPER, V8150, P1 LALL S, 1982, LEARNING IND ACQUISI MCDOUGALL RA, 1998, GLOBAL TRADE ASSISTA NELSON RR, 1990, SCI TECHNOLOGY LESSO NELSON RR, 1999, ECON J, V109, P416 PACK H, 1986, J DEV ECON, V22, P87 PARKER MT, 2001, J MED MICROBIOL, V50, P1 PARRY IWH, 1999, PRODUCTIVITY NATURAL ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFUSION INNOVATIONS SEDJO RA, 1999, BIOTECHNOLOGY PLANTE SEDJO RA, 1999, PRODUCTIVITY NATURAL SIMPSON RD, 1999, PRODUCTIVITY NATURAL VANMEIJL H, 1998, WELTWIRTSCH ARCH, V134, P443 WALMSLEY TW, 2000, SHORT COURS DYN GTAP WHITEMAN MR, 1995, GROWING SUSTAINABLE, P108 WHITEMAN MR, 1995, GROWING SUSTAINABLE, P115 NR 38 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2003 VL 70 IS 6 BP 545 EP 562 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 689AC UT ISI:000183468600003 ER PT J AU Hsu, LC TI Applying the Grey prediction model to the global integrated circuit industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE integrated circuit (IC); Grey forecasting model AB This study examines the precision of the Grey forecasting model applied to samples based on demand and sales in the global integrated circuit (IQ industry. In doing so, the main objective is to explore which forecast model is most appropriate for the IC industry by comparing the empirical results from the Grey model (GM), time series and exponential smoothing. Furthermore, three residual modification models are applied to enhance the forecasting results. Empirical results indicate that the GM is better suited to short-term predictions than to mid- and long-term predictions. Meanwhile, the Markov-chain residual modification model achieves reliable and precise results. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Ling Tung Coll, Dept Int Trade, Taichung 408, Taiwan. RP Hsu, LC, Ling Tung Coll, Dept Int Trade, 1 Ling Tung Rd, Taichung 408, Taiwan. CR CHEW JM, 1995, J CHINA I TECHNOL CO, V11, P17 CHIANG JS, 1998, INTRO GREY SYSTEM TH DENG JL, 1982, SYSTEMS CONTROL LETT, V5, P288 DENG JL, 1989, J GREY SYSTEM, V1, P1 HSU CI, 1998, TRANSPORT PLAN TECHN, V22, P87 HSU LC, 2001, J GREY SYST ASS, V4, P97 JENG KS, 1996, KAO YUAN J, V5, P253 LEE C, 1986, J SEISMOL, V4, P27 LU YQ, 1995, J GREY SYST THEORY, V7, P211 MON DL, 1995, J CHUNG CHENG I TECH, V24, P73 MORITA H, 1996, INT J ELEC POWER, V18, P409 SONG S, 1992, J GREY SYSTEM, V4, P359 TIEN TL, 1996, THESIS NATL CHENG KU TSENG FM, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V67, P291 WEN JC, 2000, J CHIN INST ENG, V23, P583 WILSON JH, 1990, BUSINESS FORECASTING WU J, 1998, J GREY SYST, V10, P183 WU Q, 1994, J GREY SYST, V4, P315 YEH MF, 1996, J GREY SYST, V1, P209 NR 19 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2003 VL 70 IS 6 BP 563 EP 574 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 689AC UT ISI:000183468600004 ER PT J AU Gordon, TJ TI A simple agent model of an epidemic SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE epidemic; infection; general-purpose forecasting ID CELLULAR AUTOMATA; SYSTEMS; CHAOS AB This paper presents an agent model that simulates the spread of an infection in a population. The epidemic depicted could be any attribute that is passed from a one person to others in society, for example, a disease, an idea or belief, a fad, a market or a behavioral pattern. The model was constructed to study the sensitivity of factors such as virility of the infectious agent, the "reach" of the vector and the density of the population in which the epidemic takes place. A further goal was to begin the development of a general-purpose forecasting model based on the use of agents. The model and its results are presented in this paper. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. RP Gordon, TJ, 23 Sailfish Rd, Vero Beach, FL USA. CR EPSTEIN J, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S, P7 GLADWELL M, 2000, TIPPING POINT LITTLE GLICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GORDON T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P49 GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 GORDON TJ, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P1 GREEN D, CELLULAR AUTOMATA EN NEWMAN MEJ, 2001, 0101073 SANT FE I NOYMER A, 2001, WPS200104 CTR CULT O TOFFOLI T, 1984, PHYSICA D, V10, P117 VONNEUMANN J, 1966, THEORY SELF REPRODUC WOLFRAM S, 1984, PHYSICA D, V10, P1 WOLFRAM S, 2002, NEW KIND SCI NR 13 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 5 BP 397 EP 417 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 676YY UT ISI:000182781200001 ER PT J AU Ronde, P TI Delphi analysis of national specificities in selected innovative areas in Germany and France SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological clusters; Delphi analysis; foresight process ID CURRENT FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES; TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT; INCREASING RETURNS; ECONOMICS; PARADIGMS AB The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economics combined with more social pressure, global competition, technological change, as well as national budget restrictions, imply new challenges for public policies. Thus, to be able to forecast the development of knowledge and technological change in some well-known trajectories could be one of the major stakes for science technology and industrial policies. It is then not surprising that recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many countries. The purpose of the paper is precisely to propose a new foresight method in order to obtain a taxonomy of the future technologies, and consequently to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics. We present a statistical analysis of a Delphi investigation, based on scientific and technological knowledge complementarities, in order to obtain coherent clusters, which may be looked upon as a theoretical tool for political decisions. Our methodology is then applied to French and the German sectors of life sciences, elementary particles, energy, environment and natural resources. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Strasbourg 1, Bur Econ Theor & Appl, F-67085 Strasbourg, France. Univ Haute Alsace, Lab Intelligence Organisationnelle, F-68093 Mulhouse, France. RP Ronde, P, Univ Strasbourg 1, Bur Econ Theor & Appl, 61 Ave Foret Noire, F-67085 Strasbourg, France. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 5 BP 419 EP 448 PG 30 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 676YY UT ISI:000182781200002 ER PT J AU Sung, TK Gibson, DV Kang, BS TI Characteristics of technology transfer in business ventures: the case of Daejeon, Korea SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology transfer; Daejeon; Korea; linear and nonlinear venture businesses ID INFORMATION PRESENTATION; ENTREPRENEURSHIP; PERFORMANCE; SYSTEMS; SECTOR; COLOR AB This article explores the characteristics of venture business and entrepreneurs in Korea to (1) identify technology transfer activities, (2) analyze the differences between technology transfer in linear and nonlinear venture businesses, and (3) guide more effective venture business policy and strategy. This empirical assessment reveals that entrepreneurs have insightful evaluations about their resources and capacities as well as expectations with regard to functions and features of science parks and incubators. Respondents from "linear model"-based start-ups tend to be older and have higher education, employ more basic research and development (R&D) and have more R&D-oriented careers, and have more varied work experience than "nonlinear"-based start-ups. The functions and features of science parks and incubators were generally not considered a critical influence on start-ups nor on the growth of venture businesses. Accordingly, alternative venture-nurturing strategies are discussed as being key to accelerate venture businesses growth. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Kyonggi Univ, Coll Business, Paldal Gu, Suwon 442760, South Korea. Univ Texas, IC Inst, Austin, TX 78705 USA. Chungnam Natl Univ, Dept Local Govt Adm, Taejon, South Korea. RP Sung, TK, Kyonggi Univ, Coll Business, Paldal Gu, 94-6 Yiui Dong, Suwon 442760, South Korea. CR *IC2 I, 1990, TECHN PHEN *ITEP, 1998, THEOR PRACT TECHN KO *KIET, 1998, VENT CAP EXP PROGR *NCVA, 1996, NAT VENT CAP ASS 199 BEARSE P, 1994, EVALUATION BUSINESS BENBASAT I, 1981, COMMUN ACM, V24, P752 BENBASAT I, 1985, MANAGE SCI, V31, P1348 BENBASAT I, 1986, MIS QUART, V10, P59 BENDER DH, 1986, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V3, P22 BRUCE L, 1989, ENTREPRENEURSHIP CRE BYGRAVE WD, 1992, VENTURE CAPITAL CROS CAMPBELL C, 1992, CHANGE AGENTS NEW EC COOPER AC, 1981, LONG RANGE PLANN, V14, P39 COOPER AC, 1986, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V7, P53 CRON WL, 1983, INFORM MANAGE, V6, P171 EINDOR P, 1981, P 2 INT C INF SYST D, P215 FACHE D, 1992, CULTURE ENTREPRENEUR, P193 FEESER HR, 1987, THESIS PURDUE U GALBRAITH JK, 1985, NED IND STATE GIBSON DV, 1991, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V8, P287 GIBSON DV, 1995, INT BUSINESS REV, V18, P199 GIBSON LJ, 1992, P DEV STRATEGIES SCI, P25 GOMPERS PA, 1996, J FINANC ECON, V42, P133 GRAYSON L, 1993, SCI PARKS EXPT HIGH GREEN M, 1991, VENTURE CAPITAL INT HONG S, 1998, KNOW VENTURE BUSINES JOLLY VK, 1997, COMMERCIALIZATION NE KANG BS, 1991, THESIS MICHIGAN STAT KANG BS, 1997, P INT S TECHN REG EC, P297 KANG BS, 1997, REGIONAL STUDY, V13, P22 KASPER GM, 1985, INFORM MANAGE, V9, P87 KIM IW, 1998, HANKOOK JEBANG JACHI, V10, P295 KIM K, 1997, DEV STRATEGIES VENTU, P111 KOZMETSKY G, 1993, NASA FIELD CTR BASED LARSEN K, 1988, CREATING TECHNOPOLIS, P99 LEE J, 1997, DEV STRATEGIES VENTU, P126 LEE JW, 1997, MAEIL EC NEWSPAPER LINCOLN T, 1986, INFORM MANAGE, V11, P25 MASSEY D, 1992, HIGH TECH FANTASIES MEEDER R, 1993, FORGING INCUBATOR DE MILLER J, 1987, MIS QUART, V11, P107 PARK SO, 1998, NATL PLANNING, V13, P27 RICE MP, 1995, GROWING NEW VENTURES RIVARD S, 1984, MIS QUART, V8, P39 SEDAITIS JB, 1997, COMMERCIALIZING HIGH SMILOR RW, 1988, CREATING TECHNOPOLIS SMILOR RW, 1988, J BUSINESS VENTURING, V4, P49 SMILOR RW, 1989, PRACTICAL COMMERCIAL STEVENSON HH, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P85 SUH K, 1997, STUDY FACILITATING S SUNG TK, 1998, P ANN HICSS, P252 SUNG TK, 2000, P 4 INT C TECHN POL TURNER JA, 1982, P 3 INT C INF SYST A, P109 VASARHELYI MA, 1981, P 2 INT C INF SYST, P267 YANG H, 1997, CURRENT STATUS VENTU YAP CS, 1986, INFORM MANAGE, V10, P267 NR 56 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 5 BP 449 EP 466 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 676YY UT ISI:000182781200003 ER PT J AU Non, M Franses, PH Laheij, C Rokers, T TI Yet another look at temporal aggregation in diffusion models of first-time purchase SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE Bass diffusion model; temporal aggregation AB This paper gives yet another look at the impact of temporal aggregation on the parameter estimates for the familiar Bass diffusion model. It is shown that aggregation leads to larger values of the innovation parameter p and that it is leads to smaller values of the imitation parameter q, at least in theory. The last finding is in contrast with the results in Technological Forecasting and Social Change [51 (1996) 265]. We use simulation experiments to substantiate our results. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Erasmus Univ, Sch Econ, Econometr Inst, Rotterdam, Netherlands. Erasmus Univ, Sch Econ, Dept Marketing & Org, Rotterdam, Netherlands. RP Franses, PH, Erasmus Univ, Sch Econ, Econometr Inst, Rotterdam, Netherlands. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 PUTSIS WP, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P265 SRINIVASAN V, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P169 VANDENBULTE C, 1997, MARKET SCI, V16, P338 NR 4 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 5 BP 467 EP 471 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 676YY UT ISI:000182781200004 ER PT J AU Molitor, GTT TI Five economic activities likely to dominate the new millennium - V. New atomic age SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Publ Policy Forecasting Inc, Potomac, MD 20854 USA. RP Molitor, GTT, Publ Policy Forecasting Inc, 9208 Wooden Bridge Rd, Potomac, MD 20854 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 5 BP 473 EP 487 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 676YY UT ISI:000182781200005 ER PT J AU Silberglitt, R Hove, A Shulman, P TI Analysis of US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE energy; scenarios; pathways; futures; policy AB This manuscript reviews a collection of recent energy scenarios from a policy and planning perspective and compares these scenarios quantitatively with respect to US energy consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon content of the fuel mix in 2020. "Carbon efficiency," a combined measure of the effects of energy efficiency and decarbonization, is defined and is shown to be proportional to the product of energy efficiency and the inverse of the carbon content of the fuel mix. The scenarios are compared on a graph of total energy consumption in 2020 versus carbon efficiency and the results used to define a set of stylized meta-scenarios that span a broad range of possible US. energy futures. Pathways to these meta-scenarios and implications for US energy policy are discussed in comparison to past and present US energy experience. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 RAND Corp, Arlington, VA 22202 USA. RP Silberglitt, R, RAND Corp, 1200 S Hayes St, Arlington, VA 22202 USA. CR 2002, EIA HOLDS ANN C REV *ACEEE, 1991, AL SAV EN NAT RES DE *ACEEE, 1997, ALL SAV EN NAT RES D *INT WORK GROUP EN, 1997, SCEN US CARB RED *INT WORK GROUP EN, 2000, SCEN CLEAN EN FUT *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO *PRES COMM ADV SCI, 1999, POW PARTN SYNTH REP *US EIA, 1998, IMP KYOT PROT US EN *US EIA, 1998, STAND POORS DRI IMP *US EIA, 1999, AN IMP EARL START CO *US EIA, 1999, EN US BRIEF HIST CUR *US EIA, 2001, ANN EN OUTL *WEFA, 1998, GLOB WARM HIGH COST HEAPS C, 1998, CONVENTIONAL WORLDS MARLAND G, 1997, NDP030R7 ORNLCDIAC NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS SANDS R, 1998, PNNL EMAIL COMMUNICA SCHWARTZ P, 1996, ART LONG VIEW PLANNI SMIL V, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P251 SMIL V, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P260 NR 21 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2003 VL 70 IS 4 BP 297 EP 315 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 666VX UT ISI:000182198100001 ER PT J AU van Zolingen, SJ Klaassen, CA TI Selection processes in a Delphi study about key qualifications in Senior Secondary Vocational Education SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE Delphi method; key qualifications; Senior Secondary Vocational Education ID GUIDELINES; ROUNDS AB The focus of this study is the Delphi method. First, a short history of the Delphi method is given. Then, different types of the Delphi method are described, and the validity and reliability of the Delphi method are discussed. Finally, this study reports on the selection processes and assessments faced when a policy Delphi was conducted into qualification issues in Senior Secondary Vocational Education in the Netherlands. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, NL-6500 HK Nijmegen, Netherlands. Univ Nijmegen, Dept Educ, NL-6500 HK Nijmegen, Netherlands. RP van Zolingen, SJ, Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, POB 9108, NL-6500 HK Nijmegen, Netherlands. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2003 VL 70 IS 4 BP 317 EP 340 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 666VX UT ISI:000182198100002 ER PT J AU Williams, E TI Forecasting material and economic flows in the global production chain for silicon SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE production chain; globalization; silicon; material flows; economic forecasts; environment AB Material and economic flows in a global production chain are analyzed in order to identify shifts in economic structure relevant to environmental issues. Results suggest that the economic and environmental weight of high-tech manufacturing and specialized material sectors will increase significantly relative to extractive and primary commodity sectors, perhaps reaching a similar environmental scale within a few decades. Though further study is needed, the forecasts suggest that a reprioritization of analysis and policy to address these new industries is in order. These results are based on a case study of the global production chain for high-purity silicon and its use in semiconductors, solar cells and optical fiber from primary materials. Forecasts for future material/economic flows are carried out based on the identification of time scales that reveal stable long-term trends. Assuming constant growth over 7-10 year averages reproduces thirty years of historical growth of three global sectors to around 1-2% accuracy. This suggests the constant growth model can be used to forecast with a relatively high degree of confidence. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 United Nations Univ, Shibuya Ku, Tokyo 1508925, Japan. RP Williams, E, United Nations Univ, Shibuya Ku, 53-67 Jingumae 5 Chome, Tokyo 1508925, Japan. CR 1998, COMLINE DAILY N 0727 *FAOSTAT, 1999, FAOSTAT DAT UN FAA *UN FAO, 1985, 63 UN FAO *UN FAO, 1987, 41 UN FAO *US DEP COMM BUR C, 1992, MIC92S2 US DEP COMM *US DEP COMM BUR C, 1993, ANN SURV MAN STAT IN *US GEOL SERV, 1990, MIN IND SURV SIL *US GEOL SERV, 1993, MIN IND SURV IND SIL *WSTS, 1999, SEM IND BLUE BOOK WO AYRES R, 1994, IND METABOLISM RESTR AYRES RU, 1995, 9510EPS INSEAD BRYNJOLFSSON E, 2000, UNDERSTANDING DIGITA DELANO D, 1999, ELECTRON BUS, V25, P13 DICKEN P, 1998, GLOBAL SHIFT TRANSFO, P353 FAY P, LIGHTWAVE, V16 FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1998, J IND ECOL, V2, P107 FROSCH RA, 1994, PHYS TODAY, V47, P63 GABISCH G, 1989, BUSINESS CYCLE THEOR GERREFI G, 1994, COMMODITY CHAINS GLO, P95 HARBEN P, 1999, IND MINERALS HDB IND HOPKINS T, 1986, REVIEW, V10, P157 KNUTSEN HM, 2000, REV INT POLIT ECON, V7, P254 MAYCOCK P, 1999, PV NEWS, V17, P1 MEADOWS D, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH OMARA W, 1990, HDB SEMICONDUCTOR SI OMEROD P, 1998, BUTTERFLY EC PHYLIPSEN GJM, 1995, 95057 UTR U ROSKILL, 1997, EC SILICON TSUO Y, 1998, 2 WORLD C PHOT SOL E, V2, P1199 WILLIAMS E, 2000, GLOBAL PRODUCTION CH YAMAUCHI I, 2000, SHINKINZOKU DEETABUK NR 31 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2003 VL 70 IS 4 BP 341 EP 357 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 666VX UT ISI:000182198100003 ER PT J AU Winebrake, JJ Creswick, BP TI The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE futures studies; technology forecasting; hydrogen; decisions science; technology assessment ID CELL VEHICLE; ENERGY; INFRASTRUCTURE; METHANOL; GASOLINE; CRITERIA; OPTIONS; DESIGN; AHP AB This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15-20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 James Madison Univ, Dept Integrated Sci & Technol, Harrisonburg, VA 22807 USA. Project Performance Corp, Mclean, VA USA. RP Winebrake, JJ, James Madison Univ, Dept Integrated Sci & Technol, MSC 4102, Harrisonburg, VA 22807 USA. CR *AMI, 2000, INT COMB ENG PROM ME ALLARD M, 2000, 200000005 SAE BERLOWITZ PJ, 2000, SAE2000010003 BOSE RK, 1996, ENERGY, V21, P305 CASTEN S, 2000, 2000010001 SAE CHEDID R, 1998, IEEE T ENERGY CONVER, V13, P76 COATES JF, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P115 DAMS RAJ, 2000, 2000010010 SAE DAVIS S, 2000, ORNL6959 DIRCKS K, 1999, 1999010534 SAE EKDUNGE P, 1998, INT J HYDROGEN ENERG, V23, P381 HAGAN M, 2000, 2000010007 SAE HART D, 2000, J POWER SOURCES, V86, P542 HERKERT JR, 1996, IEEE TECHNOL SOC MAG, V15, P12 HIRSCHENHOFER JH, 1998, FUEL CELL HDB JOUVENEL HD, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P37 KABLAN M, 1997, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V38, P1515 KAGAZYO T, 1997, ENERGY, V22, P121 KALHAMMER FR, 1998, STATUS PROSPECTS FUE LEWIS RA, 1999, 1999010531 SAE LINSTONE H, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH NG HK, 1999, 1999012942 SAE OGDEN JM, 1998, 982500 SAE OGDEN JM, 1999, J POWER SOURCES, V79, P143 OGDEN JM, 2000, FUEL CELLS B, V16, P5 PADRO CEG, 1999, TP57027079 NAT REN E POH KL, 1999, COMPUT IND ENG, V37, P507 RAMAN V, 1999, 1999010529 SAE RAMANATHAN R, 1995, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V29, P197 SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SAATY TL, 1990, DECISION MAKING LEAD SAATY TL, 1995, J ADV TRANSPORT, V29, P81 SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW STOBART RK, 1999, 1999010321 SAE STODOLSKY F, 1999, 1999010322 SAE THOMAS CE, 1998, 982496 SAE THOMAS CE, 2000, INT J HYDROGEN ENERG, V25, P551 WANG MQ, 1999, ANLESD40 WANG MQ, 1999, GREET 1 5 TRANSPORTA, V1 WINEBRAKE JJ, 2001, 96 ANN M EXH AIR WAS NR 40 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2003 VL 70 IS 4 BP 359 EP 384 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 666VX UT ISI:000182198100004 ER PT J AU Desouza, KC Hensgen, T TI Semiotic emergent framework to address the reality of cyberterrorism SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE cyberterrorism; steganography; semiotics; emergence; complexity AB The following paper examines concepts associated with cyberterrorism. Most of the current attention given terrorism involves both probability and consequences related to the physical world. Focuses in "what-if" scenarios involve threats to the economy and the population from an enemy that has all the discretion in selecting the battlefield. But what if the target of terrorism activity is a virtual world? The economic and communications infrastructure of many countries depend on cyber thoroughfares at least as much as they do those of concrete or steel. Yet little attention is given to the notion of attacks that can occur in cyberspace. This discussion examines what cyberterrorism means, the forms it may take and how it may occur, and safeguards that should be considered in preparation for cyber warfare. To this end, we draw from current theories involving semiotics, emergence, and complexity to ground our work. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Illinois, Coll Business Adm, Ctr Res Informat Management, Dept Informat & Decis Sci, Chicago, IL 60607 USA. Loyola Univ, Dept Curriculum Instruct & Educ Psychol, Chicago, IL 60611 USA. RP Desouza, KC, Univ Illinois, Coll Business Adm, Ctr Res Informat Management, Dept Informat & Decis Sci, 601 S Morgan St,M-C 294, Chicago, IL 60607 USA. CR 2001, CNN NEWS 0521 2002, ABC NEWS 1206 ARQUILLA J, 1999, COUNTERING NEW TERRO CLARKE RJ, 2001, INFORMATION ORG TECH COLLIER R, 1997, SAN FRANCISCO C 0509 COLLIN BC, 2002, 11 ANN INT S CRIM JU CONWAY M, 2002, FIRST MONDAY, V7 DESOUZA KC, 2001, COMPET INTELL REV, V12, P57 DESOUZA KC, 2002, MANAGING KNOWLEDGE A DESOUZA KC, 2003, EMERG J COMPLEX ISSU, V4 DIZIKES P, 2001, ABC NEWS 0220 EEDLE P, 2002, GUARDIAN 0717 FORNO R, 2000, SECUR FOCUS ONL 0927 HENSGEN T, 2003, IN PRESS J CONTINGEN, V11 IQBAL A, 2002, UNITED PRESS IN 0202 KETTMANN S, 1999, WIRED NEWS 1229 LIU K, 2000, SEMIOTICS INFORMATIO LYONS J, 1977, SEMANTICS, V1 MCGIRK T, 1999, TIME INT 1011 POLLITT MA, 2002, CYBERTERRORISM FACT RAMAPRASAD A, 1996, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V24, P179 RAMAPRASAD A, 1999, P WORKSH INF TECHN S RAMAPRASAD A, 2002, P 1 ANN PREICIS WORK ROSS B, 2002, ABC NEWS 1125 STOLL C, 1989, DOUBLEDAY WYNNE J, 2002, WHITE HOUSE ADVISOR NR 26 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2003 VL 70 IS 4 BP 385 EP 396 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 666VX UT ISI:000182198100005 ER PT J AU Kozulj, R TI People, cities, growth and technological change - From the golden age to globalization SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The concept of economic development appeared during the postwar period as the basis and the source of a very strong hope of eradicating extreme poverty from the face of the Earth. All along the three first decades of this period-the second half of the 20th century-this promise did not seem questionable. It was thought that there were clear signs that material progress reaching larger sectors of the population and economic growth were parallel processes, linked to urbanization. A new style was thus c established - that of modem large cities, However, the dynamics of this period appears to be strongly associated with the economic activity related to the basic construction of one's own lifestyle. The effects of structural market saturation and the limits of the redistribution of income began to be noticed in as far back as the end of the 1960s, and even more clearly so towards the end of the 1970s. That was the moment when population growth in the megalopolises and large cities in general began to become stable and even to decline in absolute value. It was also the time when the acceleration of technological innovation began to play a major role in development policies, while low social inclusion and marginalization problems became evident. This paper delves into this hypothesis on the basis of ample empirical evidence. Numerous conclusions are drawn from the analysis, which are useful for a serious restatement of the controversial issue of Sustainable Development. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Fdn Bariloche, RA-8400 San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina. RP Kozulj, R, Fdn Bariloche, Av 12 Octubre 1923 SC, RA-8400 San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 70 IS 3 BP 199 EP 230 PG 32 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 646EB UT ISI:000181020900001 ER PT J AU Eto, H TI The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy - A Japanese view SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology forecasting; technology foresight; extrapolation; Delphi; decision system; strategy ID CURRENT FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES; CUSTOMER SATISFACTION; OTA; SUBSTITUTION; PERSPECTIVE; INNOVATION; INDUSTRIES; MANAGEMENT; KNOWLEDGE; PROGRAM AB This paper evaluates technology forecasting and foresight (TF/F) methods in relation to users' decision systems for science and technology (S&T) strategies. As TF/F is an aid to decisions for attaining S&T goals, we examine the serviceability or suitability and acceptability of the methods and outcomes of TF/F for decision systems and S&T strategies. The focus is on extrapolation and Delphi methods because they are so widely used in technology forecasting (TFC). Based on the complaint analysis of TFC that revealed inaccuracy as the most serious obstacle to its acceptance, this paper especially analyses the meaning of accuracy. Learning from the experiences of TFC, the suitability of technology foresight (TFS) to cognitive structures in users' decisions is discussed. Finally, some lessons from TFC are presented for TFS. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Chiba Keizai Univ, Dept Management, Inage Ku, Chiba 2630021, Japan. RP Eto, H, 3-43-17-305,Nakano Ku, Tokyo 1640001, Japan. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 70 IS 3 BP 231 EP 249 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 646EB UT ISI:000181020900002 ER PT J AU Sohn, SY Ahn, BJ TI Multigeneration diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology forecasting; cybernetic building system; cost benefit analysis; diffusion model; Monte Carlo simulation; Taguchi design ID SUCCESSIVE GENERATIONS; SUBSTITUTION; ENTRY AB In the era of 21st century, development of emerging information technology is the essence of the advancement. This kind of new technology, however, often requires a great deal of amount of initial investment for both procedures of R&D and commercialization. As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Typically, it would be hard to presume the diffusion pattern of demand when the new product or the technology is under development. In this case, a simulation study is necessary. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account newer generation, which can replace the one just invented. In the real market situation, one must consider the competition and substitution phenomena between old and new technologies. In this paper, we show how multigeneration technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Additionally, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a cybernetic building system (CBS). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Yonsei Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Ind Syst Engn, Sudaemoon Ku, Seoul 120749, South Korea. J Walter Tompson, Seoul, South Korea. RP Sohn, SY, Yonsei Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Ind Syst Engn, Sudaemoon Ku, 134 Shichondong Dong, Seoul 120749, South Korea. CR *I REAL EST MAN, 1997, INC EXP AN OFF BUILD BAPTISTA R, 1999, INT J EC BUSINESS, V6, P107 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BHATTACHARYA S, 1997, 6 C INT SOC SCI INF BORDONS M, 1997, 6 C INT SOC SCI INF BROWN MA, 1993, R D SPIN OFFS SEREND BROWN MA, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V13, P229 BROWN MA, 1997, T2 METR SUMM P TECHN CHAPMAN RE, 1999, 6303 NISTIR DEBACKERE K, 1998, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V49, P49 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 INGWERSEN P, 1997, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V48, P205 ISLAM T, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P49 ISLAM T, 2000, EUR J OPER RES, V125, P551 KAYAL A, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P237 KUMAR V, 1998, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V15, P225 LUC Q, 1997, 6 C INT SOC SCI INF MAHAJAN V, 1993, J MARKETING, V57, P39 MAHAJAN V, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P109 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MANSFIELD E, 1977, PRODUCTION APPL NEW NORTON JA, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1069 POWELL JW, 2000, DEV COMMERCIALIZATIO PUTSIS WP, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P265 SPEECE MW, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P281 TAKADA H, 1991, J MARKETING, V55, P48 TAM KY, 1999, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V46, P190 WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 NR 28 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 70 IS 3 BP 251 EP 264 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 646EB UT ISI:000181020900003 ER PT J AU Shampine, A Tolley, G TI The welfare implications of advertising and extension under uncertainty SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE advertising; diffusion; extension; Green Revolution; uncertainty ID ADOPTION; INNOVATIONS AB This paper specifies an adoption model based upon Bayesian learning and exogenous information generation. Formulae for welfare effects are derived and calibrated using Green Revolution agricultural data. The effects of intervention through the dissemination of new information are then estimated numerically. The simulations indicate that gains to intervention can be substantial. Intervening with slowly adopted marginal technologies is as beneficial as intervening with superior technologies. Taken from Shampine [Am, J. Agric. Econ. 2 (1998).], which examined intervention in the presence of learning externalities, the results suggest that if adoption is slow, and information is the primary constraint, the gains to intervention are generally substantial relative to the costs. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Lexecon Inc, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. Univ Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. RCF Consulting Inc, Chicago, IL USA. RP Shampine, A, Lexecon Inc, 332 S Michigan Ave, Chicago, IL 60604 USA. CR *GOV PUNJ, 1967, STAT ABSTR PUNJ *GOVT PUNJ, 1974, EC TRACT CULT EC PRO FEATHER PM, 1994, AGR ECON, V11, P159 FEDER G, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P141 FEDER G, 1985, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V33, P255 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 KLOTZ C, 1995, REV AGR EC, V17, P287 MCFADDEN DL, 1996, J POLIT ECON, V104, P683 MCGUIRK A, 1991, 87 INT FOOD POL RES MILLER T, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P848 PERSONS JC, 1997, REV FINANC STUD, V10, P939 SHAMPINE A, 1996, THESIS U CHICAGO SHAMPINE A, 1998, AM J AGR EC, V2 THIRTLE C, 1987, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G, V21 TOLLEY G, 1992, NOTES CLASS ADOPTION NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 70 IS 3 BP 265 EP 282 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 646EB UT ISI:000181020900004 ER PT J AU du Preez, GT Pistorius, CWI TI Analyzing technological threats and opportunities in wireless data services SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology forecasting; technological threat and opportunity assessment innovation strategies; wireless data services; 2.5G wireless; 3G wireless AB The ability to assess the threat and opportunity that technological innovations pose to an organisation's profitability, growth and survival has become one of the key elements in the development of offensive and defensive innovation strategies. Central to this process of assessing technological threats and opportunities is the need to analyze various aspects of identified technological developments. A range of analysis techniques exists, and a number of these are discussed and simultaneously applied to a specific technological development. While threat and opportunity assessment is relevant to almost any company in any industry, it is especially relevant to industries characterised by high rates of volatility such as the communications industry. The technological development, which has been chosen to apply these analysis techniques to, is the offering of 2.5/3G wireless data services, which is currently of great significance in the communications industry. The point of view that is taken is that of a European mobile network operator (MNO) that needs to assess the threats and opportunities that this development poses to its business. The result shows that the analysis process leads to a better understanding of not only the identified developments, their driving forces and enablers, but also their possible impacts on the organisation. This greatly enables the extent to which developments represent a threat or opportunity for a specific organisation to be assessed. In the framework of the overall technological threat and opportunity assessment methodology, the results of the analysis process will feed into the strategy formulation process where possible organisational responses can be developed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Deloitte Consulting, Commun Ind Practice, Johannesburg, South Africa. Univ Pretoria, ITI, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Pistorius, CWI, Deloitte Consulting, Commun Ind Practice, Johannesburg, South Africa. CR 2000, FORRESTER REPORT EUR 2000, NORTHSTREAM LESSONS 2001, ITWEB TELECOMS NEWS 2001, STANDARD EXPORTING J 2001, VIZZAVI 2001, WIRELESS DEV NETWORK *GOLDM SACHS GLOB, 2000, GOLDM SACHS WIR DAT ABERNATHY W, 1978, PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA AGUILAR FJ, 1967, SCANNING BUSINESS EN ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 ASHTON WB, 1991, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V6, P91 ASHTON WB, 1998, COMMUNICATION 0814 CABELLO C, 1996, IPTS FORESIGHT WATCH CHRISTENSEN CM, 1997, INNOVATORS DILEMMA DEIGHTON N, 2001, SUPRANET EXPLAINED G DUPREEZ GT, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P215 FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS LYNCH M, 2000, TELECOM MEDIA TECHNO PORTER AL, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P237 REINHARDT A, 2001, BUS WEEK 0326, P18 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I WHITE GR, 1978, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P146 NR 22 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 1 BP 1 EP 20 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 632EF UT ISI:000180210200001 ER PT J AU Linton, JD Yeomans, JS TI The role of forecasting in sustainability SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE sustainability; waste recovery; reuse ID TELEVISION; MANAGEMENT; PRODUCTS AB A lack of understanding of the waste flow of durable goods complicates decision-making efforts that will increase sustainability. To address this problem, the modeling of the waste flow of durable goods is considered. Televisions are used to illustrate the requirements for forecasting and the magnitude of the associated uncertainty of the waste flow for a durable good that is impacted by technological change and/or unpredictability in field life. This example is timely due to disposal laws affecting cathode ray tubes (CRTs) and the emergence of alternate technology trajectories for televisions. The findings suggest that the reuse of lead-bearing CRT glass is worthwhile, even though flat panel TV technology will eliminate this controversial waste stream. The findings also indicate the implications of forecasting durable waste flows for decisions regarding policy, business models, required infrastructure and supply chain management. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Lally Sch Management & Technol, Troy, NY 12180 USA. York Univ, Schulich Sch Business, Dept Management Sci, Toronto, ON M3J 2R7, Canada. RP Linton, JD, Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Lally Sch Management & Technol, 110 8th St, Troy, NY 12180 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 1 BP 21 EP 38 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 632EF UT ISI:000180210200002 ER PT J AU Masini, A Frankl, P TI Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe: A learning curve approach SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE photovoltaics; learning curve; diffusion models ID MODEL; ENERGY AB Most analysts disagree upon whether photovoltaic systems (PV) will be able to play an important role in the energy scenarios of the future. A few scholars also question the appropriateness of policies that envisage the use of public subsidies to stimulate the growth of this industry and to accelerate market penetration. This paper contributes to this debate by examining whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies. Building upon a disaggregated characterization of the electricity market, it takes endogenously into account the learning curve phenomenon and simulates the diffusion of PV building-integrated systems in five European countries. The analysis is restricted to crystalline silicon systems and is repeated under four different macroeconomic scenarios corresponding to four different energy policies. The results suggest that already today there are opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale economics to render the technology competitive in larger markets. They also show that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits (net avoided CO2 emissions over the system life cycle) associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 London Business Sch, Dept Operat & Technol Management, London NW1 4SA, England. Univ Rome I La Sapienza, Dipartimento ITACA, I-00196 Rome, Italy. RP Masini, A, London Business Sch, Dept Operat & Technol Management, Regents Pk, London NW1 4SA, England. CR *ENEL, 1996, CT94004 RENA EU *EPIA, 2001, PV SOL EL 2010 PLUS *IEA, 1984, FUEL EFF PASS CARS I *IEA, 1993, WORLD EN OUTL YEAR 2 *IEA, 1997, REN EN POL IEA COUNT, V1 *IEA, 1998, MAPP EN FUT EN MOD C *IEA, 2000, DEAL CLIM CHANG *IEA, 2001, EN PRIC TAX *INSEE, 1999, ANN STAT FRANC *ISTAT, 1999, STAT ATT ED ANN 1999 *OECD, 2001, STAT COMP MAIN EC IN AYRES RU, 1998, ENV4CT960292 EU AYRES RU, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P115 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BOYD R, 1995, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V29, P1 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FLAVIN C, 1983, FUTURIST, V17 FLAVIN C, 1994, POWER SURGE GUIDE CO FRANKL P, 1995, VALUTAZIONE POTENZIA FRANKL P, 1998, ECORESTRUCTURING, P223 FRANL P, 1997, LIFE CYCLE ANAL BUIL GIOVANIS AN, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P235 GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC HOFF TE, 2000, ENERGY J, V21, P113 KAPLAN AW, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P317 KELLY H, 1993, INTRO PHOTOVOLTAIC T LAW AM, 1991, SIMULATION MODELING LENSSEN N, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P769 LEVY FK, 1965, MANAGE SCI, V11, B136 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, J ECON PERSPECT, V7, P11 PREVI I, 1992, ENERGIA FOTOVOLTAICA REVER B, 2001, RENEWABLE ENERGY WOR, V4 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, NATURE, V389 SHISHKIN P, 2000, WALL ST J 0510 VIGOTTI R, 1994, P 2 EUR PV SOL EN C VIGOTTI R, 1994, P ED PUBB PRIV FONT WENE CO, 2000, EXPERIENCE CURVES EN WOOLF T, 1998, ELECT J, P64 YELLE LE, 1979, DECISION SCI, V10, P302 NR 40 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 1 BP 39 EP 65 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 632EF UT ISI:000180210200003 ER PT J AU Hsu, PH Wang, CH Shyu, JZ Yu, HC TI A Litterman BVAR approach for production forecasting of technology industries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE production forecasting; autoregression (AR); vector autoregression (VAR); Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR); industrial clusters ID BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION; ERROR-CORRECTION; TIME-SERIES; MODELS; CONSUMPTION; TAIWAN; ORDER AB Forecasting the production of technology industries is important to entrepreneurs and governments, but usually suffers from market fluctuation and explosion. This paper aims to propose a Litterman Bayesian vector autoregression (LBVAR) model for production prediction based on the interaction of industrial clusters. Related industries within industrial clusters are included into the LBVAR model to provide more accurate predictions. The LBVAR model possesses the superiority of Bayesian statistics in small sample forecasting and holds the dynamic property of the vector autoregression (VAR) model. Two technology industries in Taiwan, the photonics industry and semiconductor industry are used to examine the LBVAR model using a rolling forecasting procedure. As a result, the LBVAR model was found to be capable of providing outstanding predictions for these two technology industries in comparison to the autoregression (AR) model and VAR model. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Management, Inst Management Technol, Hsinchu, Taiwan. Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Sci, Inst Stat, Hsinchu, Taiwan. RP Hsu, PH, Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Management, Inst Management Technol, 1001 Ta Hsueh Rd, Hsinchu, Taiwan. CR *MOEA, 1999, TAIW SEM IND OUTL 19 AMISANO G, 1999, J FORECASTING, V18, P463 CHANG PL, 1998, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V45, P349 CURRY DJ, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P181 DOAN T, 1984, ECONOMETRIC REV, V3, P1 DOAN T, 1992, RATS USERS MANUAL, P8 DUA P, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P167 DUA P, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P217 ENDERS W, 1995, APPL EC TIME SERIES, P301 ENGEL R, 1986, ECON REV, V5, P1 GHATAK A, 1998, J APPL STAT, V25, P579 HAMILTON JD, 1994, TIME SERIES ANAL, P302 HAMILTON JD, 1994, TIME SERIES ANAL, P362 HANNAN EJ, 1979, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V41, P190 HOLDEN K, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P159 HOPWOOD WS, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P57 IOANNIDIS C, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P251 JOUTZ FL, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P287 KADIYALA KR, 1997, J APPL ECONOM, V12, P99 KUMAR V, 1995, INT J FORECASTING, V11, P361 LITTERMAN RB, 1985, Q REV FED RESERVE BA, V9, P2 LITTERMAN RB, 1986, J BUS ECON STAT, V4, P25 LUTKEPOHI H, 1993, INTRO MULTIPLE TIME, P128 LUTKEPOHI H, 1993, INTRO MULTIPLE TIME, P35 MARCETTI DJ, 2000, J FORECASTING, V19, P419 QUINN BG, 1980, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V42, P182 RAVISHANKER N, 1997, J FORECASTING, V16, P177 SALAZAR E, 1999, J FORECASTING, V18, P447 SARANTIS N, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P201 SCHWARZ G, 1978, ANN STAT, V6, P461 SHEN CH, 1996, INT J FORECASTING, V12, P269 SHOESMITH GL, 1995, INT J FORECASTING, V11, P557 SIMS CA, 1980, ECONOMETRICA, V48, P1 SPENCER DE, 1993, INT J FORECASTING, V9, P407 TSENG FM, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P263 NR 35 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 1 BP 67 EP 82 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 632EF UT ISI:000180210200004 ER PT J AU Tapio, P TI Disaggregative policy Delphi Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made using Finnish transport policy as an example. A disaggregative Delphi method as opposed to traditional consensual Delphi was applied. The article summarises eight Delphi pitfalls and gives an example how to avoid them. A two-rounded disaggregative Delphi was conducted, the panelists being representatives of interest groups in the traffic sector. Panelists were shown the past development of three correlating key variables in Finland in 1970-1996: GDP, road traffic volume and the carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic. The panelists were invited to give estimates of their organisation to the probable and the preferable futures of the key variables for 1997-2025. They were also asked to give qualitative and quantitative arguments of why and the policy instruments of how their image of the future would occur. The first round data were collected by a fairly open questionnaire and the second round data by a fairly structured interview. The responses of the quantitative three key variables were grouped in a disaggregative way by cluster analysis. The clusters were complemented with respective qualitative arguments in order to form wider scenarios. This offers a relevance to decision-making not afforded by a nonsystematic approach. Of course, there are some problems of cluster analysis used in this way: The interviews revealed that quantitatively similar future images produced by the panelists occasionally had different kind of qualitative background theory. Also, cluster analysis cannot ultimately decide the number of scenarios, being a choice of the researcher. Cluster analysis makes the choice well argued, however. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Finland Futures Res Ctr, Turku Sch Econ & Business Adm, Unit Environm Res, FIN-20521 Turku, Finland. RP Tapio, P, Finland Futures Res Ctr, Turku Sch Econ & Business Adm, Unit Environm Res, POB 110, FIN-20521 Turku, Finland. CR 1997, STAT FINLAND VOLYYMI *OECD, 1997, ENV SUST TRANS FIN R, V1 *SPSS, 1997, SPSS BAS 7 5 APPL GU ADLER M, 1996, GAZING ORACLE DELPHI BELL W, 1997, FDN FUTURES STUDIES, V1 BENARIE M, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P149 BLIND K, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P15 BROCKHAUS WL, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P127 CUHLS K, 2000, C QUEST FUT METH SEM DEWEY J, 1999, QUEST CERTAINTY STUD DUBES R, 1979, PATTERN RECOGN, V11, P235 EVERITT B, 1983, DATA ANAL SOCIAL SCI, P226 FINN RA, 1997, KOKO MAAN LIIKENNESU FORD DA, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P139 FORESTER J, 1993, CRITICAL THEORY PUBL GLADWIN CH, 1989, QUALITATIVE RES METH, V19 GOLDSCHMIDT PG, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P195 GUPTA UG, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P185 HABERMAS J, 1981, THEORIE KOMMUNIKATIV HENRION G, 1988, BEISBIELE DATENANALY HILL KQ, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P179 HIRSJARVI S, 2000, TUTKIMUSHAASTATTELU KARMASIN F, 1999, 5249 I MOT KASTEIN MR, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P315 KUUSI O, 1999, THESIS ACTA U OECONO LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LINSTONE HA, 1975, TECHNIQUES APPL, P573 MAKELA K, 1997, SUOMEN LIIKENTEEN HI MANNERMAA M, 1999, TULEVAISUUDEN HALLIN MERISTO T, 1991, SKENAARIOTYOSKENTELY MERTON RK, 1946, AM J SOCIOL, V51, P541 MERTON RK, 1987, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V51, P550 MILLIGAN G, 1998, CLUSTER ANAL ENCY ST, V2, P120 MILLIGAN GW, 1996, CLUSTERING CLASSIFIC, P341 MITROFF II, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P17 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE POPPER KR, 1969, LOGIK FORSCHUNG PREBLE JF, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P75 RIGGS WE, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P89 ROTONDI A, 1996, GAZING ORACLE DELPHI, P34 ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P235 SACKMAN H, 1975, DELPHI CRITIQUE EXPE SCHEELE DS, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P37 SCHEELE SD, 1975, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V7, P215 SCHWARZ B, 1982, METHODS FUTURES STUD TAPIO P, 1992, 631992 FINNRA TAPIO P, 2000, 2 EFIEA CLIM POL WOR TAPIO P, 2002, CLIMATE TRAFFIC PROS TUROFF M, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P84 TUROFF M, 1996, GAZING ORACLE DELPHI, P56 VANEEMEREN FH, 1996, FUNDAMENTALS ARGUMEN WATSON RT, 1995, IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE WEBLER T, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P253 WILENIUS M, 1997, FUTURES, V29, P845 WOUNDENBERG F, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V40, P131 ZIGLIO E, 1996, GAZING ORACLE DELPHI, P3 NR 56 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 70 IS 1 BP 83 EP 101 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 632EF UT ISI:000180210200005 ER PT J AU Morris, SA Pratt, D TI Analysis of the Lotka-Volterra competition equations as a technological substitution model SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE Lotka-Volterra; competition model; substitution model; Gompertz; Fisher-Pry; bass; NSRL; nonsymmetrical; responding logistic; Floyd; Sharif-Kabir; S-curve; growth curve ID GROWTH AB This paper provides insight into the dynamics of the Lotka-Volterra competition (LVC) equations, a much used competition model, and compares the dynamics of LVC competitive substitution to that of several well-known substitution models. The behavior of the LVC equations is analyzed for the special case of a dominant competitor at equilibrium being replaced after the introduction of a small population of an invading competitor with a competitive advantage. Expressions are derived that describe the growth of the invading competitor and that growth is shown to be of four classes: left asymmetric, logistic, right asymmetric with 1 - epsilon(2) asymptote and right asymmetric with gamma asymptote. It is shown that the LVC model reverts to logistic substitution in a market of fixed size, a result with important implications. The LVC equations are fitted to the Gompertz, Bass, Non-Symmetrical Responding Logistic (NSRL) and Sharif-Kabir substitution models and compared using a novel graphical technique. The LVC equations can reasonably mimic the full range of curve shapes exhibited by each of these models. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Oklahoma State Univ, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA. RP Morris, SA, Oklahoma State Univ, 202 Engn S, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA. CR BANKS RB, 1991, GROWTH DIFFUSION PHE BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BAZYKIN A, 1998, WORLD SCI SERIES N A, V11 BHARGAVA SC, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P319 COLEMAN T, 1999, OPTIMIZATION TOOLBOX EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 FARRELL CJ, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P161 FISHER JE, 1971, LANCET, V2, P75 FLOYD A, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P95 KUMAR U, 1992, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V39, P158 LOTKA AJ, 1924, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MARCHETTI C, 1991, FORECASTING TECHNOLO, V1, P55 MEYER P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P89 MODIS T, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P107 PISTORIUS CWI, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V50, P133 PISTORIUS CWI, 1996, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG, V5, P61 PISTORIUS CWI, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P67 PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME RICKLEFS RE, 1990, ECOLOGY SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 STROGATZ SH, 1994, NONLINEAR DYNAMICS C YOUNG P, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P375 NR 22 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2003 VL 70 IS 2 BP 103 EP 133 PG 31 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 633QV UT ISI:000180294700001 ER PT J AU Putranto, K Stewart, D Moore, G Diatmoko, R TI Implementing a technology strategy in developing countries - The experience of the Indonesian rolling stock industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology strategy; technology transfer; Indonesia AB Integration of business and technology strategies is an attractive approach for industries in developing countries. However, to be successful, these strategies cannot be implemented according to a company's objectives alone regardless of the involvement of other players. Furthermore, consideration of interrelated technologies should be included if a product resulting from the strategy is expected to perform well and be sustainable. This article attempts to give a broader view of factors to be considered in implementing business technology strategies in developing countries. Supporting evidence is given from the rolling stock industry in Indonesia, which has been implementing a type of business technology strategy. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Melbourne, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Int Technol Ctr, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. RP Putranto, K, Univ Melbourne, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Int Technol Ctr, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. CR *INKA, 1999, TECHN DEV COMM EL RA *TECHN ATL TEAM, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P19 ALGHAILANI HH, 1995, INT J TECHNOL MANGE, V10, P687 CUMMINGS JL, 2000, CALIF MANAGE REV, V42, P83 HAMEL G, 1994, COMPETING FUTURE KUMAR V, 1999, J TECHNOL TRANSFER, V24, P81 LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY LINSTONE HA, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH MADU CN, 1992, STRATEGIC PLANNING T PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PORTER ME, 1998, COMPETITION ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SHARIF MN, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P309 SHARIF N, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P151 SHARIF N, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P219 WEI L, 1995, TECHNOL SOC, V17, P103 NR 16 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2003 VL 70 IS 2 BP 163 EP 176 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 633QV UT ISI:000180294700003 ER PT J AU Lin, CT Yang, SY TI Forecast of the output value of Taiwan's opto-electronics industry using the Grey forecasting model SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE forecasting; grey theory; opto-electronic industry; output value AB This article applies the Grey forecasting model from Grey theory to forecast accurately the output value of Taiwan's opto-electronics industry from 2000 to 2005. The 2005 output value of Taiwan's opto-electronics industry will be NT$2216.954 billion; of opto-electronics components, NT$150.995 billion; of computer peripherals,. NT$1993 billion; of optical devices and equipment, NT$24.664 billion; of opto-electronics applications, NT$17.374 billion; and of optical fiber communications, NT$30.921 billion. The results show that the average residual error of the Grey forecasting model is lower than 10%. They further show that the Grey forecasting model exhibits high prediction accuracy. Clearly, the Grey forecasting model is a viable means of accurately forecasting the value of industrial output. Furthermore, growth of computer peripherals and optical fiber communications will be much greater than that of opto-electronics components, opto-electronic applications, and optic devices and equipment. The findings offer a valuable reference for government in drafting relevant policies for the opto-electronics industry and for firms in drawing up relevant policies for their products. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Yuan Pei Inst Sci & Technol, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan. Ming Chuan Univ, Grad Inst Management Sci, Taipei 111, Taiwan. RP Lin, CT, Yuan Pei Inst Sci & Technol, 306 Yan Pei St, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan. CR BIONDI P, 1998, J AGR ENG RES, V71, P25 DENG JL, 1982, SYSTEMS CONTROL LETT, V5, P288 DENG JL, 1989, J GREY SYSTEM, V1, P1 LIN CT, 1999, J GREY SYST, V11, P119 LIN CT, 1999, J GREY SYST, V11, P359 LIN CT, 2000, INT J INF MANAGE SCI, V11, P13 SMITH LD, 1995, J BANK FINANC, V19, P959 XU QY, 1997, TRANSP PLANN J Q, V26, P525 YI DS, 1987, SYST ENG, V1, P36 NR 9 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2003 VL 70 IS 2 BP 177 EP 186 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 633QV UT ISI:000180294700004 ER PT J AU Coates, JF Coates, VT TI From my perspective - Next stages in technology assessment: Topics and tools SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Coates, JF, 3738 Kanawha St NW, Washington, DC 20015 USA. NR 0 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2003 VL 70 IS 2 BP 187 EP 192 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 633QV UT ISI:000180294700005 ER PT J AU Branson, W Laffont, JJ Solow, R Ulph, D von Weizsacker, C Kyriakou, D CA IPTS Economists Grp TI Economic dimensions of prospective technological studies at the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE prospective; technoeconomic analysis; technology and growth AB The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) as part of the European Union (EU) Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provides technoeconomic analysis support to European decision-makers, by monitoring and analysing science and technology (S/T)-related developments, their cross-sectoral impact, their interrelationship with the socioeconomic context, and their potential future policy implications. The effects of S/T on the economic context are multiple, including the opening up of new markets, the increase or decrease of competition in an industry, the location of production of goods/services, the demand for factors of production such as labour and capital, the implications for skills demand, the consequences for wages and employment, the environmental impact, etc. Given informational asymmetries, policy-makers need ways to extract useful information regarding S/T developments and their potential economic implications, and can benefit from policy-sensitive analysis from knowledgeable impartial sources of information. Since S/T innovations have important economic implications (and are themselves influenced by economic incentives), the better one can anticipate them, the more successfully one can adapt. What is crucial here is the capacity to think through the prospective implications of S/T developments, and foster the kinds of institutions and incentives that will make successful adaptation part of the normal working of the economy, rather than the results of ad hoc re-active policies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Commiss European Communities, World Trade Ctr, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Prospect Technol Studies, Seville 41092, Spain. RP Kyriakou, D, Commiss European Communities, World Trade Ctr, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Prospect Technol Studies, Isla Cartuja, Seville 41092, Spain. CR 1995, INT IPTS MEMO *CEPR, 1995, 5 CEPR, P48 BEATH J, 1989, ECON J, V99, P74 KYRIAKOU D, 1995, SCIENTOMETRICS, V34 KYRIAKOU D, 2001, 55 IPTS KYRIAKOU D, 2001, 58 IPTS, P36 NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 69 IS 9 BP 851 EP 859 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 613MH UT ISI:000179135700002 ER PT J AU Smits, R TI Innovation studies in the 21st century: Questions from a user's perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation studies; innovation management; innovation policy; innovation systems; coevolution; technology assessment AB Science-based innovations have played an important role in our society for centuries. In this paper, after a discussion of the concept of innovation, changes in three major developments in the context of innovation processes are analysed: structural changes in our economy, the broadening of decision-making processes and the emergence of the network society, and changes in the knowledge infrastructure. On the basis of this analysis, questions and challenges confronting the players involved in innovation processes and the management of them are identified and topics for a research agenda for innovation researchers that take into account the needs of these players are formulated. The focus is on the macro and meso level, and the broadening of decision-making on innovation processes acts as an important guiding principle. Three lines of research are distinguished on the research agenda: (1) empirical studies of innovation processes and systems, (2) critical reflection on innovation theory, and (3) analysis and support of decision-making processes. With regard to the first line, case studies of innovation in services, life sciences, the relationship between ICT and sustainability and the identification of (intangible) throughput and output indicators are on the agenda. The reflection on theory (line 2) focuses primarily on innovation in chains and clusters, the role of (knowledge intensive) intermediaries and the interaction between processes and systems. Furthermore, innovation studies should also try to contribute towards endogenisation of innovation in other scientific disciplines. With regard to the analysis and support of decision-making processes (line 3), strategic intelligence providing insight into the potential, application and implementation of new technologies and the development of instruments to support players in innovation processes are addressed. An important basic assumption of this paper is that innovation studies should not only strive to deepen the insight into innovation processes and systems, but also to contribute to the development of insights, concepts, methods, techniques and instruments to support various players involved in innovation processes. The major conclusion of this paper is that shifts in the context of innovation processes, more particularly the emergence of the 'porous society', will lead to a radical transformation of innovation systems in which (knowledge intensive) intermediaries and the quality of the interface between users and producers play an increasingly important role. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Utrecht, Dept Innovat Studies, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. RP Smits, R, Univ Utrecht, Dept Innovat Studies, POB 80125, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. CR *ADV COMM SCI TECH, 1995, REG TECHN *CPB, 2000, CENTR EC PLAN *EUR COMM EUR 2 EU, 1999, KEY FIG *EUR COMM GROWTH C, 1994, 21 CENT WAYS CHALL *NETH MIN EC AFF I, 1999, LETT LOW HOUS 26 628 *OECD, 1992, TECHN EC KEY REL REP *OECD, 1997, POL EV INN TECHN BES *OECD, 1999, BOOST INN CLUST APPR AKRICH M, 1992, MITTEILUNGSHEFT, V9 ARTHUR B, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE BARRE R, 1997, EC INT BIJKER W, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION BONGERS F, 1999, J DECIS SYST, V7 BONGERS F, 2000, THESIS TILBURG U BROUWER HJ, 1999, VOLKSKRANT CALLON M, 1987, MAPPING DYNAMICS SCI CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC COOMANS A, 1999, NEMATOLOGY 1, V1, P85 DENHERTOG P, 1996, USER INVOLVEMENT RTD DENHERTOG P, 1998, 3 SI4S DIJCK J, 2000, COMMUNICATION DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC EDQUIST C, 1997, SYSTEMS INNOVATION T FONK GJ, 1994, THESIS U TWENTE FREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNOLOGY POLICY EC FRISSEN P, 1996, VIRTUELE STAAT POLIT GALLOUJ F, 1997, RES POLICY, V20, P499 GEURTS J, 1993, OMKIJKEN NAAR TOEKOM GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GIBBONS M, 2001, POL NEW ER WORKSH ST GRIN J, 1997, W57 RATH I HAGEDOORN J, 1996, REV IND ORGAN, V11, P601 HUGHES T, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION JACOBS D, 1998, KENNISOFFENSIEF JOHNSON B, 1988, SMALL COUNTRIES FACI KELLY K, 1998, NEW RULES NEW EC LAMBOOY J, 1999, VOLKSKRANT LAW J, 1998, ACTOR NETWORK THEORY LINTSEN H, 1994, GESCHIEDENIS TECHNIE MAK G, 1999, HOE GOD VERDWEEN UIT MARTIN B, 1995, ANAL STRATEGIC MANAG, V7 MAYER I, 1997, THESIS TILBURG U TIL NELSON R, 1977, RES POLICY, V6 PIETERSON M, 1981, TECHNISCH LABYRINT M PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG ROTMANS J, 2000, TRANSITIES TRANSITIE RUTTEN P, 2000, TOEKOMST VERBEELDING SCHOT J, 1998, TECHNIEK NEDERLAND T SCHOT JW, 1992, SCI TECHNOL, V17, P36 SCHUMPETER J, 1980, THEORY EC DEV SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED WE STAND RED SHAPIRO C, 1999, INFORMATION RULES SHAPLEY D, 1985, LOST FRONTIER US SCI SMITS R, POLICY SCI, V28 SMITS R, 1991, THESIS FREE U KERCKE SMITS R, 1994, ELK LAND KRIJGT TECH SMITS R, 1997, STURING WETENSCHAPPE SMITS R, 2001, INTERMEDIAIREN TRANS SNIJDERS H, 1997, EENDIMENSIONALE WETE SOETE L, 1999, INFONOMIE CONTOUREN VANDERSTEEN M, 1999, EVOLUTIONARY SYSTEMS VANDIJK J, 1995, TECHNOLOGIE SAMENLEV VANDIJK L, 1998, MODERNE INFORMATIE C VANLENTE H, 1993, PROMISING TECHNOLOGI VANROSSUM W, 2000, INNOVATIE ONTWIKKELI ZIMAN J, 1987, 1 SPSG NR 66 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 69 IS 9 BP 861 EP 883 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 613MH UT ISI:000179135700003 ER PT J AU Di Pietro, G TI Technological change, labor markets, and 'low-skill, low-technology traps' SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological change; employment; protection; regulation; overeducation ID OVEREDUCATION; COMPUTERS; WAGES AB There is evidence that in several European countries in the last decade the demand for skilled workers did not keep pace with the relative supply thereby leading to the creation of a large pool of overeducated and underutilized workers. This paper analyses whether this mismatch can be attributed to a technology-related explanation. According to this hypothesis, pockets of overeducated and underutilized workers stem from firms' inability to reap the benefits associated with a high rate of technological progress because of strict employment protection regulation. Firing restrictions may prevent firms from immediately taking advantage of upward changes in skilled workforce availability and hence they may discourage firms from adopting new technologies. This, in turn, may diminish firms' growth prospects and thereby may reduce the number of vacancies that can be filled with highly skilled workers. The technology-related explanation is tested using data,resulting from the 1995 wave of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) survey. Empirical findings support the khypothesis of technology-related pockets of overeducated. and underutilized workers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Roma La Sapienza, Fac Econ, Dept Publ Econ, I-00161 Rome, Italy. RP Di Pietro, G, Univ Roma La Sapienza, Fac Econ, Dept Publ Econ, Via Castro Laurenziano 9, I-00161 Rome, Italy. CR *EUR ECHP, 1999, SEL IND 1995 WAV *ISTAT, 1995, INS PROF LAUR IND 19 *OECD, ED GLANC OECD IND *OECD, 1999, EMPL OUTL *OECD, 1999, SCI TECHN IND SCOR B ALBAEK K, 1995, C DEM LAB SOND DENM ALBARAMIREZ A, 1993, J HUM RESOUR, V28, P259 AUTOR DH, 1998, Q J ECON, V113, P1169 BECKER GS, 1967, HUMAN CAPITAL PERSON DEOLIVEIRA MM, 2000, ECON EDUC REV, V19, P199 ENTORF H, 1997, EUR ECON REV, V41, P1489 GOLDIN C, 1996, WORKING PAPER NATL B, V5657 GROOT W, 2000, ECON EDUC REV, V19, P149 HARTOG J, 2000, ECON EDUC REV, V19, P131 HOWELL DR, 1998, E ECON J, V24, P343 KAHN J, 1998, Q J ECON, V113, P1245 KATZ LF, 1992, Q J ECON, V107, P35 KIKER BF, 1991, ECON EDUC REV, V10, P187 KRUEGER AB, 1993, Q J ECON, V108, P33 LYNCH LM, 1994, WORKING DIFFERENT RU, P63 MACHIN S, 1998, Q J ECON, V113, P1215 ULPH D, 1996, ACQUIRING SKILLS MAR, P81 NR 22 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 69 IS 9 BP 885 EP 895 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 613MH UT ISI:000179135700004 ER PT J AU Kyriakou, D TI Technology and sustainable growth - Towards a synthesis SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology; weak-strong sustainability; growth ID RENEWABLE RESOURCES; POLICIES AB The sustainability criteria espoused by sustainable development (SD) models can be broadly classified along a weak-strong axis according to the quantity/entity they would opt to preserve (e.g. total capital stock, natural capital stock, individual forms of natural capital, etc.) and their belief in substitutability across various forms of capital. Underpinning this focus differentiation is a differing degree of belief in the ability of technical progress to allow substitution across different forms of natural and man-made capital. This paper presents a distilled version of the salient topics in thinking on SD and suggests a synthetic/eclectic approach emerging from and drawing on all shades of the weak-strong spectrum. A key for substitutability is technical progress. The latter can be seen as a form of human capital in which society invests. Technical progress not only enhances substitutability across forms of capital but also promotes economic growth, which, in turn, allows high investment in human capital, formation. The picture becomes less rosy when we are near catastrophe thresholds or, perforce, when there is uncertainty about what such thresholds are. A. useful rule-of-thumb seems to be to keep the option set as in-tact as possible for as long as possible while science improves our understanding of what is at stake. (C) 2602 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Prospect Technol Studies, Seville, Spain. RP Kyriakou, D, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Prospect Technol Studies, Seville, Spain. CR AZAR C, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P739 BECKENBACH F, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P859 BENHAIM J, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P597 DALY H, 1989, COMMON GOOD REDIRECT DUBOURG WR, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P991 EKINS P, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P655 ELSERAFY S, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P57 ESTY DC, 2001, J ECON PERSPECT, V15, P113 FROGER G, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P1061 GASTALDO S, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P233 GOODLAND R, 1992, POPULATION TECHNOLOG HARTWICK JM, 1977, AM ECON REV, V67, P972 HEDIGER W, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P317 HOFKES MW, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V20, P1 HOWARTH RB, 1993, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V3, P337 HUETING R, 1994, P INT S MOD SUST DEV, P43 KEMP R, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P141 KYRIAKOU D, 1999, EDITORIAL CROSS JURI LAHAYE N, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P1115 LI CZ, 2000, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V40, P236 MARINI G, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P937 MCKILLOP W, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P351 MOURMOURAS A, 1993, J PUBLIC ECON, V51, P249 PERRINGS C, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P27 PEZZEY J, 1992, 2 WORLD BANK PEZZEY J, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P959 PROOPS JLR, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P819 RILEY JG, 1980, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V7, P291 SOEDERBAUM P, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P1103 SOLOW RM, 1986, SCAND J ECON, V88, P141 SPECK S, 1994, P AFCET U PANTH SORB, P641 STERN DI, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P162 VERCELLI A, 1994, P AFCET UN PANTH SOR, P1079 VICTOR PA, 1994, P INT S MOD SUST DEV, P93 NR 34 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 69 IS 9 BP 897 EP 915 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 613MH UT ISI:000179135700005 ER PT J AU Thumm, N TI Europe's construction of a patent system for biotechnological inventions: An assessment of industry views SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE inventions; biotechnology; European patent system; harmonisation AB Ever since it became obvious that biotechnology will become one of the core technologies in the new millenium, the European biotechnology industry and its legal framework have been compared with the system in the US. In particular, the patent system as an incentive system for research and development is frequently a matter of debate. Adopting a system that was developed a long time ago for inventions of the mechanical era to new kinds of inventions, however, poses many difficulties with respect to the scope of protection and the definition of what is patentable. Even though the debate is already going on for some time, the situation is still quite unclear. Based on the empirical data from an industry survey, this article describes the situation of patent law for biotechnological inventions in Europe, evaluates the harmonisation issue in Europe, compares it with regulations in the US and comes up with suggestions for improvements of the current legal European framework. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Inst Prospect Technol Studies, IPTS, WTC, Seville 41092, Spain. RP Thumm, N, Inst Prospect Technol Studies, IPTS, WTC, C Inca Garcilaso S-N, Seville 41092, Spain. CR COM2000412 2001, ERNST YOUNGS 8 ANN E *EUR COMM, 1997, COM97314 *EUR COMM, 1999, ETAN WORK PAP STRAT, P12 *UN, 1993, INT PROP RIGHTS FOR ARCHIBUGI D, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P3 ATKINS R, 2000, FINANC TIMES 0811 BALLANTINE B, 1997, SPRU, P48 FREEMAN C, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P21 GALAMA J, 2000, EXPERT OPINION CASE GOVAERE I, 1996, USE ABUSE INTELLECTU, P41 GRUPP P, 1999, PATENTS CHEM PHARM B, P65 HELLER MA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P698 HOEKMAN B, 1995, POLITICAL EC WORLD T, P144 LUNDVALL B, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MASKUS K, 2000, INTELLECTUAL PROPERT STRAUS J, 1997, 17014 EUR STRAUS J, 2000, EXPERT OPINION INTRO VANOVERWALLE G, 1999, J LAW TECHNOL, V39, P143 ZIEDONIS R, 2001, RAND J EC 1, V32, P101 NR 20 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 69 IS 9 BP 917 EP 928 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 613MH UT ISI:000179135700006 ER PT J AU van Zuylen, HJ Weber, KM TI Strategies for European innovation policy in the transport field SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE transport; forecasting and assessment; European policy AB Technology offers opportunities to realise policy goals. The FANTASIE project, executed for the European Commission, has done a search for promising technological innovations in transport and has assessed their possible impacts on the goals of the Common Transport Policy. Individual policy measures that could foster these promising technological innovations have been identified. Beyond individual measures, robust and adaptive strategies need to be developed that can be adjusted to changing circumstances in order to cope with the complexity and high level of uncertainty involved. In addition, the balance between national and European policy measures deserves particular attention. This leads us to suggest a number of policy packages that reflect the aforementioned principles of transport innovation policy design, as well as the specific constraints of the European policy context. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Austrian Res Ctrs ARC, A-2444 Seibersdorf, Austria. Delft Univ Technol, Transport Res Ctr AVV, Minist Transport, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands. RP Weber, KM, Austrian Res Ctrs ARC, A-2444 Seibersdorf, Austria. CR *HLG, 1999, WORK PAP INN FIELD T BAUM H, 2000, 15 INT S THEOR PRACT DELLESITE P, 1999, ADAPTED METHODS TIME GEURTS KT, 2000, 773002013 NAT I PUBL GEURTS KT, 2000, INNOVATION, V13, P47 KORVER W, 1999, DEFINITION EUROPEAN MOON D, 2001, DEMONSTRATING CLEANE ROTHWELL R, 1981, IND INNOVATION PUBLI VANZUYLEN H, 2000, OPTIONS SUPPORT INTR VANZUYLEN HJ, 1997, METHODOLOGICAL RECOM VANZUYLEN HJ, 2001, 9 WORLD C TRANSP RES, P22 WEBER KM, 1999, EXPT SUSTAINABLE TRA NR 12 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 69 IS 9 BP 929 EP 951 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 613MH UT ISI:000179135700007 ER PT J AU Borch, K Rasmussen, B TI Commercial use of GM crop technology: Identifying the drivers using life cycle methodology in a technology foresight framework SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological foresight; controversial technology; biotechnology stakeholder panel; strategic planning; regulatory decision-making ID SCENARIO; FUTURE AB The complexity and advanced nature of modem biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-tyegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Riso Natl Lab, Syst Anal Dept, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. RP Borch, K, Riso Natl Lab, Syst Anal Dept, POB 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. CR 1999, FINAL DOCUMENT CONSE *ISO, 1997, 14040 ISO INT ORG ST *PUBL OP AN UN, 1999, EUR 52 1 REP EUR BIO BECK U, 1992, LOGIC WEALTH DISTRIB, P19 BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC, P123 BORCH K, 2000, RISOR1130EN BORCH K, 2000, TRENDS BIOTECHNOL, V18, P485 DRANSFELD H, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P81 GIBBONS M, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C82 GODET M, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P1 LACKEY RT, 1997, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V3, P921 LAFOURCADE B, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P67 MARTIN BR, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P139 MASINI EB, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P49 MCCABE H, 1999, NATURE, V400, P7 MERCER D, 1995, MANAGE DECIS, V33, P32 MERCER D, 1997, MANAGE DECIS, V35, P129 NEDEVA M, 1996, R&D MANAGE, V26, P155 RABBINGE R, 1997, EUR J PLANT PATHOL, V103, P197 STIRLING A, 1999, RETHINKING RISK PILO VANWYK RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V55, P21 VONDOMMELEN A, 1999, SCI CONTROVERSY BIOS, P15 WEBSTER A, 1999, TECHNOVATION, V19, P413 WILSON I, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P23 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 NR 25 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2002 VL 69 IS 8 BP 765 EP 780 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 590MG UT ISI:000177826200001 ER PT J AU Chang, PC Wang, CP Yuan, BJC Chuang, KT TI Forecast of development trends in Taiwan's machinery industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE Taiwan; machinery industry; Delphi method; forecasting; industry development AB Industry transformation oriented toward high technology is being expected in the next 10 years by targeting Taiwan becoming an island of the technology. The machinery industry, which has been playing a vital role in Taiwan's economic development in the past, should be continuously emphasized during the course of the future development. This paper presents a detailed study on the future development of Taiwan's machinery industry along with the valuable proposals to the government policy and the investment strategy to the private sectors. The 10-year forecasting survey based on the strength, weakness, opportunity and threats (SWOT) analysis was made through an integrated professional team using the Delphi method. The derived results of market growth forecasting and the projected high potential products are further elaborated in the paper. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Inst Management Technol, Taipei, Taiwan. Ind Technol Res Inst, Machinery Ind Res Lab, Taipei, Taiwan. RP Chang, PC, China Product Ctr, 2F,79 Hsin Tai Wu Rd Sec 1, Taipei 221, Taiwan. CR 1998, 50 YEAR HIST MACHINE, P55 1998, HIST MACHINERY IND T, P9 1998, USA MODERN MACHINE S, V70, P125 *BOARD FOR TRAD, 1991, INTRO JAPAN MACHINER, P81 *MIN EC AFF BUR IN, 1999, DEV STRAT ACT MACH I, P9 LEVARY RR, 1995, IND MANAGE, V37, P14 MARTIN CL, 1993, PROG VET COMP OPHTH, V3, P15 PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME, P200 SIMJI K, 1997, MACH TOOL, V41, P19 TANIGUCHI N, 1992, SOC PREC ENG, V26, P20 TOSHIAKI N, 1998, IND PROD, V35, A64 WANG CP, 1998, PHENOMENA TREND MACH, P1 WANG CP, 1999, P TAIW MAN IND REV 1, P150 NR 13 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2002 VL 69 IS 8 BP 781 EP 802 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 590MG UT ISI:000177826200002 ER PT J AU Kovoor-Misra, S TI Boxed-in: Top managers' propensities during crisis issue diagnosis SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE crisis; issue diagnosis; top manager ID STRATEGIC ISSUES; INFORMATION; ORGANIZATIONS; IDENTITY; IMAGE; UNCERTAINTY; PERCEPTION; JUDGMENT; THREATS; CONTEXT AB A key task of crisis preparedness is to diagnose those crisis issues that could threaten an organization in the future. Existing models, however, have focused on diagnosing issues that are already apparent versus those that may occur in the future. As a result, we lack understanding of the processes involved in such diagnosis and the barriers that constrain this process. This paper describes envisioning, noticing, and interpretation as critical processes involved in diagnosing potential crises. It also suggests that during such diagnosis, top managers have a propensity to focus on particular types of crises and be blind to others. Implications for practice and future research are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Colorado, Coll Business, Denver, CO 80217 USA. RP Kovoor-Misra, S, Univ Colorado, Coll Business, Campus Box 165,POB 173364, Denver, CO 80217 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2002 VL 69 IS 8 BP 803 EP 817 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 590MG UT ISI:000177826200003 ER PT J AU Spreng, D TI Technology assessment: Impact of high-tech engineering research on energy consumption SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology assessment; power electronics; energy; research AB A technology assessment (TA) program was launched in Switzerland in 1991. One project in the series of pilot projects was meant to assess the impact of so-called LESIT technologies on energy consumption. (LESIT was a priority research program and a German acronym for power electronics, systems and information technology.) In this paper the institutional environment, applied methods and main results of the TA study are summarised. One of the questions that arose was whether it is reasonable to expect a high-tech engineering research program to serve any societal goals other than the more immediate technical and economic goals the research partners in university and industry are accustomed to follow. It was found that without special efforts this expectation was not realistic. Politically desirable goals are best served when enough emphasis, time, and money are given to the process of bringing together research partners from academia and industry who all have a (self-serving) interest in furthering the politically desirable goal and then support their collaboration. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH Zentrum, Ctr Energy Policy & Econ, WEC, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Spreng, D, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH Zentrum, Ctr Energy Policy & Econ, WEC, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. CR *ETH ZUR, 1991, EXP ZUH SCHWEIZ SCHU *OTT VERL DRUCK AG, 1995, RAT EIDG TECHN HOCH AEBISCHER B, 1996, 121996 TADT SCHW WIS AEBISCHER B, 1996, ENERGETISCHE BEDEUTU BALTES H, 1995, LESIT FINAL REPORT 1 EGGIMANN F, 1996, WISSENSCHAFTLICHE EV HOLLING CS, 1978, INT SERIES APPL SYST KUHLMANN S, 171997 TADT SCHW WIS RAMMERT W, 1989, TECHNIK SOZIALER PRO SHAPIN S, 1996, SCI REVOLUTION SPILLER A, 1998, WIRKUNGSANALYSE SCHW NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2002 VL 69 IS 8 BP 819 EP 831 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 590MG UT ISI:000177826200004 ER PT J AU de Freitas, A Paez, MLD Goedert, WJ TI Strategic planning in public R&D organizations for agribusiness: Brazil and the United States of America SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE alternative scenarios; strategic planning; agribusiness; research and development management AB There is increasing evidence that public organizations dedicated exclusively to research and development (R&D) in agribusiness need systematic management tools to incorporate the uncertainties and complexities of technological and nontechnological factors of external environments in its long-term strategic plans. The major issues are: "What will be the agribusiness science and technology (S&T) needs be in the future?" "How to prepare in order to meet these needs?" Both Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa), attached to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have developed a comprehensive strategic and operational planning process in order to answer these key questions in the 1990s. The main objective of this article is to present a comparative and preliminary analysis of concepts, methodologies, and processes utilized, and some results obtained by these public organizations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Brazilian Agr Res Corp, EMBRAPA, BR-70770901 Brasilia, DF, Brazil. Univ Brasilia, Dept Soil Sci, FAV, BR-70910901 Brasilia, DF, Brazil. RP de Freitas, A, Brazilian Agr Res Corp, EMBRAPA, Parque Estacao Biol,Final Av W-3 Norte, BR-70770901 Brasilia, DF, Brazil. CR *EMPR BRAS PESQ AG, 1990, CEN PESQ AGR ASP TEO, P153 *EMPR BRAS PESQ AG, 1991, DOC REF PAR PLAN EST, P120 *EMPR BRAS PESQ AG, 1992, 2 PLAN DIR EMBR 1993, P64 *US GEN ACC OFF CO, 1996, EX GUID EFF IMPL GOV, P56 *US GEN ACC OFF GE, 1997, AG STRAT PLANS GPRA, P35 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1997, MEAS PERF STRENGTHS, P34 *USDA EC RES SERV, 1997, AIS66 USDA, P11 *USDA, 1995, AGR RES SERV REP REG, P41 *USDA, 1996, AGR OUTLOOK NOV, P45 *USDA, 1996, ARS PROF 1996, P27 *USDA, 1997, ARS STRAT PLAN, P47 AVILA AFD, 1994, GESTAO P D PESQUISA, P299 CASTRO AM, 1997, AN SEM NAC PROSP TEC, P117 CASTRO AMG, 1992, 18 S GEST IN TECN 17, P170 CASTRO AMG, 1994, GESTAO CIENCIA TECNO, P165 CASTRO AMG, 1995, PROSPECCAO DEMANDAS, P82 CASTRO AMG, 1996, REV ADM SAO PAULO, V31, P94 CASTRO AMG, 1998, CADEIAS PRODUTIVAS S, P564 FLORES MX, 1994, GESTAO CIENCIA TECNO, P17 FREITAS FA, 1994, GESTAO CIENCIA TECNO, P225 GOEDERT WJ, 1994, GESTAO CIENCIA TECNO, P392 GOEDERT WJ, 1995, REV ADM SAO PAULO, V30, P19 JOHNSON A, 1991, S NAC PESQ ADM CIENC, C1 JOHNSON B, 1991, S NAC PESQ ADM CIENC, C19 JOHNSON B, 1992, S NAC GEST IN TECN S, P602 KORNELIUS E, 1994, GESTAO CIENCIA TECNO, P203 PAEZ MLD, 1994, GESTAO CIENCIA TECNO, P257 POPINIGIS F, 1994, GESATO CIENCIA TECNO, P47 SANTANA OP, 1994, GESTAO CIENCIA TECNO, P281 TWISS BC, 1992, FORECASTING TECHNOLO, P221 NR 30 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2002 VL 69 IS 8 BP 833 EP 847 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 590MG UT ISI:000177826200005 ER PT J AU Mackay, MM Metcalfe, M TI Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE multiple perspectives; multiple methods; forecasting; discontinuous innovation AB This paper argues for the development of more explicit forecasting methodologies that use the pragmatics of combining methods and the philosophical base of multiple perspectives. The increasingly common "wicked" problem of forecasting demand for discontinuous innovations (DI) at the concept testing stage of new product development is used to ground the discussion. We look to the interpretivist group-based inquiry methodologies in the management and information systems literature, and coupled this with discussions with forecasting managers, to provide evidence to support the adoption of this approach. Relativism is briefly critiqued and the accuracy of the combining methods forecasting literature reviewed. It appears that the managers interviewed could benefit from an explicit understanding of the multiple perspective approach, as they already appeared to have appreciated the need for a broader based approach than traditional forecasting techniques. It is therefore hoped that as a result of this paper, more managers involved with the "wicked" problem of innovative product forecasting will recognise the need to adopt a more explicit multiple perspective inquiry methodology in their efforts to combine forecasting methods. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ S Australia, Sch Mkt, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia. Univ S Australia, Informat Syst Doctoral Sch, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia. RP Mackay, MM, Univ S Australia, Sch Mkt, Level 2-25,Elton Mayo Bldg,City W Campus,GPO Box, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia. CR ARMSTRONG J, 1985, LONG RANGE FORECASTI ARMSTRONG JS, 1986, INTERFACES, V16, P89 BARNES B, 1982, RATIONALITY RELATIVI, P21 BATES JM, 1969, OPERATIONAL RES Q, V20, P451 CHECKLAND P, 1998, INFORMAITON SYSTEMS CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS CLEMEN RT, 1989, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P559 DRYAMPLE G, 1987, INT J FORECASTING, V3, P379 FILDES R, 1991, J FORECASTING, V10, P597 FLORES BE, 1988, J ACAD MARK SCI, V16, P95 GOLDEN J, 1994, MANAGE DECIS, V32, P33 HERBIG P, 1994, J BUSINESS IND MARKE, V9, P60 LINSTONE H, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LIPSTONE HA, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH MAKRIDAKIS S, 1983, MANAGE SCI, V29, P987 METCALFE M, 1995, FORECASTING PROFIT, P339 METCALFE M, 2001, CONCERNS BASIS INFOR MORGAN G, 1997, IMAGES ORG ORRISON M, 1996, J GEN MANAGE, V22, P28 SANDERS NR, 1995, IND MANAGE DATA SYST, V95, P12 SMITH HC, 1996, J MARK PRACT APPL MA, V2, P35 SOLOMON M, 1998, CONSUMER BEHAV BUYIN STEWART C, 2001, POOR PICTURES SELF A ULRICH W, 1983, CRITICAL HEURISTICS URBAN GL, 1996, J MARKETING, V60, P47 WINKLER RL, 1989, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P605 NR 26 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 2002 VL 69 IS 3 BP 221 EP 232 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 584LE UT ISI:000177467400001 ER PT J AU Carrillo, M Gonzalez, JM TI A new approach to modelling sigmoidal curves SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE sigmoidal curves; modeling; growth; diffusion phenomena ID TRACTORS; GROWTH; SPAIN AB Growth and diffusion phenomena have become of great interest to investigators in many disciplines, such as Biology, Demography, Economy, Agriculture, etc. These processes are generally analyzed by means of growth curves. As, in nature, it is not possible for any variable to continue growing indefinitely, we can consider any growth process to have an upper limit or saturation level. Thus, should a, model represent a growth phenomenon, it will be described by a sigmoidal or S-shaped curve. There are a wide variety of growth models in general. and specific literature. Of these, the logistic model is without doubt one of the most studied in practice, as well as some modifications of it, including recent investigations directed to the decomposition of a growth curve into various logistic components [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 47 (1994) 89; Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 61 (1999) 247.]. In all the cases above, the adopted approach includes fitting the trend curve to the data by means of a well-known estimation procedure, such as least squares. We suggest a somewhat I different approach, which consists of expressing the model through its differential equation and searching for a functional specification for the variable representing growth rate. Two series have been chosen from the recent literature in order to illustrate,the methodology presented. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ La Laguna, Dept Econ Aplicada, San Cristobal la Laguna 38071, Tenerife, Spain. RP Carrillo, M, Univ La Laguna, Dept Econ Aplicada, San Cristobal la Laguna 38071, Tenerife, Spain. CR BANKS RB, 1994, DIFFUSION GROWTH PHE BERNY J, 1994, J APPL STAT, V21, P161 BEWLEY R, 1988, INT J FORECASTING, V4, P177 BHARGAVA SC, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V41, P177 FRANSES PH, 1994, J OPER RES SOC, V45, P109 GAMERMAN D, 1991, J OPER RES SOC, V42, P119 HARVEY AC, 1984, J OPER RES SOC, V35, P641 JAIN DC, 1990, J BUS ECON STAT, V8, P163 MARMOLINERO C, 1980, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V31, P141 MEADE N, 1985, J OPER RES SOC, V36, P1103 MEYER P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P89 MEYER PS, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P209 OLIVER FR, 1981, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V32, P499 PESCHEL M, 1986, PREDATOR PREY MODEL RALSTON A, 1970, INTRO ANAL NUMERICO RATKOWSKY DA, 1983, NONLINEAR REGRESSION SEBER GAF, 1989, NONLINEAR REGRESSION NR 17 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 2002 VL 69 IS 3 BP 233 EP 241 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 584LE UT ISI:000177467400002 ER PT J AU Victor, NM Ausubel, JH TI DRAMs as model organisms for study of technological evolution SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological substitution; learning curves ID LOGLET-LAB SOFTWARE; SUBSTITUTION AB The short, well-documented market life of generations of dynamic random access memory (DRAM)computer chips makes them an excellent "model organism," like the fruit fly, for study of evolution, in this case technological. Using classic models of logistic growth, substitution, and learning, we examine the global dynamics of eight generations of DRAMs and forecast the market characteristics of the next DRAM generations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, New York, NY 10021 USA. RP Ausubel, JH, Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, Box 234,1230 York Ave, New York, NY 10021 USA. CR 2000, INTEGRATED CIRCUIT E ARGOTE L, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P920 BALDWIN RE, 1988, EMPIRICAL METHODS IN, P171 BANKS RB, 1994, GROWTH DIFFUSION PHE FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GARRETT B, 2000, OEG20000204S0015 GRUEBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH IRWIN DA, 1994, J POLIT ECON, V102, P1200 JOHNSON BT, 1991, US JAPAN SEMICONDUCT JOHNSON BT, 1996, LET US JAPAN SEMICON LAMOREAUX NR, 1999, LEARNING DOING MARKE MACHER J, 1999, STUDIES COMPETITIVE, P245 MEYER PS, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P247 MONTROLL EW, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P4633 MOORE GE, CONTINUING SILICON T NEIJ L, 1997, ENERG POLICY, V23, P1099 PEARL R, 1925, BIOL POPULATION GROW WRIGHT TP, 1936, J AERONAUT SCI, V3, P122 YUNG JW, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P273 NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 2002 VL 69 IS 3 BP 243 EP 262 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 584LE UT ISI:000177467400003 ER PT J AU Versluis, C TI DRAMs, fiber and energy compared with three models of market penetration SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological diffusion; S-curve; competition; Dynamic Random Access Memory chips; synthetic fiber; primary energy ID TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; DIFFUSION; SUBSTITUTION AB When a new technology is introduced in the market, this technology generally follows an S-shaped curve, especially if measured on a relative (market share) basis. Marchetti and Nakicenovic and Norton and Bass have modeled the multivariant case of various technologies introduced at different times. A new, simple and flexible model has been proposed based on potential penetration. Potential penetration is penetration on the assumption that no other new technology will enter the market. In a stable competitive environment, potential penetration curves are typically positively sloped S-curves. The new model gives a good fit in markets with a limited number of competitors, which are capable of totally cannibalizing previous generations of technologies. It also fits well with markets with many competitors in a competitive equilibrium situation. Examples are the Dynamic Random Access Memory chips (DRAMs), fiber and energy market. The new model features fewer variables compared with existing models and can readily be adapted to technological processes with time varying parameters, which is particularly important in volatile competitive markets. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 DSM Res BV, NL-6160 MD Geleen, Netherlands. RP Versluis, C, DSM Res BV, POB 18, NL-6160 MD Geleen, Netherlands. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BAYUS BL, 1994, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V11, P300 BETZ F, 1993, STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGY BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 EPPERSON R, 1999, CORTERRA POLYM LIFTI FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FROEHLING PE, 2000, CHEM FIBERS INT, V50, P448 GAINES BR, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V57, P7 GRUBLER A, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P159 KOSLOWSKI HJ, 1998, DICT MAN MADE FIBERS MARCHETTI C, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P345 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 INT I APPL SY MARCHETTI C, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V14, P191 MARCHETTI C, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P155 MEINDL JD, 1987, SCI AM OCT, P54 MERINO DN, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P275 MOORE GE, 1965, ELECTRONICS, V38, P114 NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, RR7912 INT I APPL SY NAKICENOVIC N, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P309 NAKICENOVIC N, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P175 NORTON JA, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1069 NORTON JA, 1992, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V33, P66 RAY GF, 1989, RES POLICY, V18, P1 ROBINSON AL, 1984, SCIENCE, V223, P267 ROSS PE, 1995, FORBES, V155, P116 RUYS L, 1998, INT DYER, V183, P32 SHETH PJ, 1996, 5576366, US TURTON R, 1995, QUANTUM DOT JOURNEY NR 28 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 2002 VL 69 IS 3 BP 263 EP 286 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 584LE UT ISI:000177467400004 ER PT J AU van der Zwaan, BCC TI Nuclear energy: Tenfold expansion or phase-out? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE nuclear power; carbon emissions; global warming; sustainability ID POWER AB Today, consensus is strengthening that mankind ought to prevent atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from more than doubling, since such a doubling is likely to cause a significant interference with the planet's climate system, to which it might prove difficult to adapt. Nuclear energy possesses large disadvantages, among which waste, proliferation and safety. An expansion of nuclear energy would encounter great social, institutional and economic barriers. Because the 21st century requires a radical transformation of global energy production and consumption towards nonfossil fuels, however, it is one of the noncarbon emitting alternatives that, at present, deserve enhanced research and development efforts. If nuclear energy were expanded 10-fold, it could contribute significantly to mitigating carbon emissions: a 10-fold expansion of nuclear energy could avoid about 15% of cumulative carbon emissions over the period 2000-2075. Nuclear energy, however, can be no panacea for the problem of global warming. Even with a massive expansion, nuclear energy should be complemented by drastic fossil fuel decarbonization measures or the development of renewable energy resources. Preferably, a combination of both should be targeted and complemented by far-reaching efficiency and savings regimes. Since the risks for humanity resulting from climate change are high, it would be unwise to currently abandon any noncarbon energy resource, including fission. A central thrust of continued research and development into nuclear energy ought to be the design of satisfactory nuclear waste depositories and of safe reactors that are less susceptible to proliferation risks. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP van der Zwaan, BCC, Free Univ Amsterdam, IVM, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. CR BECK PW, 1999, ANS WINT M ALB FEIVESON HA, 1999, P ANS GLOB 1999 M FETTER S, 1999, NUCL ENERGY PROMISE, P29 KNAPP KE, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P121 NAKICENOVIC N, 1997, TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJEC, P74 RADETZKI M, 2000, ENERGY J, V21, P135 RHODES R, 2000, FOREIGN AFF, V79, P30 SAILOR WC, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P1177 VANDERZWAAN BCC, 1999, ENERGIE NUCL 21 SIEC VANDERZWAAN BCC, 1999, NUCLEAR ENERGY PROMI, P209 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 11 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 2002 VL 69 IS 3 BP 287 EP 307 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 584LE UT ISI:000177467400005 ER PT J AU Albright, RE TI What can past technology forecasts tell us about the future? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology forecasts; trends; experience curves; learning curves; innovations; Herman Kahn AB Past forecasts of technical innovations include lessons that can be used in making forecasts today. A review of Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener's "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century," published in their 1967 book, The Year 2000, A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, found that fewer than 50% were judged good and timely, having occurred in the twentieth century. However, when the forecasts were grouped into nine broad technological fields, there were wide variations in the judged accuracy of the forecasts. Forecasts in computers and communication stood out as about 80% correct, while forecasts in all other fields were judged to be less than about 50% correct. Sustained trends of increasing capabilities and declining costs of technologies used for computers and communication applications were apparent in 1967 and enabled accurate long-term forecasts. To improve our current forecasts, we should took for sustained and continuing trends in underlying technologies, where increasing capabilities enable more complex applications and declining costs drive a positive innovation loop, lowering the cost of innovation and enabling wider learning and contributions from more people, thus sustaining the technology trends. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Albright Strategy Grp, Morristown, NJ 07960 USA. RP Albright, RE, Albright Strategy Grp, 20 Rolling Hill Dr, Morristown, NJ 07960 USA. CR *GARTN GROUP, DAT RIG DISK DRIV *SEM IND ASS, 1999, INT TECHN ROADM SEM ALFERNESS RC, 2000, BELL LABS TECH J, V5, P188 FOX GC, PERFORMANCE SUPERCON KAHN H, 1967, YEAR 2000 FRAMEWORK, P51 KRUGMAN P, 1998, ECONOMICS KURTZMAN J, 1998, COMMUNICATION LEYDEN P, 1996, EDGE DIGITAL AGE FOR MEUER H, TOP 500 SUPERCOMPUTE MITRA PP, 2001, NATURE, V411, P1027 MOORE GE, 1965, ELECTRONICS, V38, P114 ONEILL H, 1999, FLA TIMES UNION 0307 SCHNAARS SP, 1989, MEGAMISTAKES FORECAS SHAER SC, 2000, OUT FUTURE SILVERMAN R, 2000, FLA TIMES UNION 0307 SILVERMAN R, 2000, WALL ST J 0101 TEICH AH, 2000, TECHNOLOGY FUTURE NR 17 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 5 BP 443 EP 464 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 580YG UT ISI:000177263900002 ER PT J AU Anderson, T Fare, R Grosskopf, S Inman, L Song, XY TI Further examination of Moore's law with data envelopment analysis SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE SOA; state of the art surface; DEA; data envelopment analysis; technological forecasting ID TECHNOLOGY; ATTRIBUTES AB Although it has stood the test of time for over 30 years, Moore's law addresses but a single aspect of microprocessor design. As a proxy for technology, the number of transistors in an integrated circuit represents a limited perspective on the technology as a whole. In past work the authors proposed a set of metrics by which to measure a technology and a means to measure its progress over time utilizing data envelopment analysis (DEA). In this revised model, the assumption of state of the art (SOA) on product release is dropped, technical progress is measured iteratively over time, the effective time elapsed between the SOA and a no longer SOA has been refined to include a weighted average, and a means of utilizing proxy Decision Making Unit (DMUs), was implemented to maintain the dataset over time. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Portland State Univ, Dept Engn & Tech Management, Portland, OR 97207 USA. RP Anderson, T, Portland State Univ, Dept Engn & Tech Management, POB 751,Mail Code ETM, Portland, OR 97207 USA. CR ALEXANDER AJ, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V5, P189 ALLEN R, 1997, ANN OPER RES, V73, P13 ANDERSON TR, 2001, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN CHARNES A, 1978, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V2, P429 COOPER WW, 1999, DATA ENVELOPMENT ANA DODSON EN, 1970, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V1, P391 DOYLE J, 1994, J INFORM TECHNOL, V9, P61 DOYLE JR, 1991, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V19, P631 ESPOSITO E, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P1 FARE R, 1996, INTERTEMPORAL PRODUC GORDON TJ, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P1 HALL DV, 1990, MICROPROCESSORS INTE KANG SM, 1999, CMOS DIGITAL INTEGRA KHOUJA M, 1995, COMPUT IND ENG, V28, P123 KNIGHT KE, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P107 MARTINO JP, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MOORE GE, 1965, ELECTRONICS, V38, P114 MOORE GE, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P55 PETERSON DK, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V42, P251 PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGMEE RAO HR, 1993, COMMUN ACM, V36, P95 SAHAL D, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P371 SAHAL D, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P289 SAHAL D, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P1 STORTO CL, 1997, PORTL INT C MAN ENG THORE S, 1996, COMPUT OPER RES, V23, P341 NR 26 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 5 BP 465 EP 477 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 580YG UT ISI:000177263900003 ER PT J AU Krause, PH TI The PROTEUS project - Scenario-based planning in a unique organization SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB PROTEUS is an advanced concepts futures research effort that seeks to pull out innovation drivers and new technology concepts by looking broadly and deeply across plausible alternative futures and characterizing uncertainty in the future national security problem space. The analytical techniques underlying the research have come from two sources. The scenario-based planning technique utilized was based on commercial best practices designed to manage uncertainty as developed by The Futures Group (now part of Deloitte Consulting, LP). The technology planning technique is based on the former Futures Group's original work for the Federal Government in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Adhering to the principle of future "plausibility" versus "probability," four fundamental precepts have guided the research: avoid uncritical extrapolation from today, avoid reductionism, challenge conventional thinking and do not necessarily drive for an early consensus. Rigor in applying the precepts helps the organization break old thinking patterns and frees it to discover the dynamic forces for change emerging from alternative world situations. With this new understanding, the organization can evaluate alternative advanced research and development (AR&D) strategies and perform tradeoff analyses of decision-making processes. The research has evolved in two parts: (1) an examination of the future national security problem space using scenario-based planning and (2) the development of several approaches to the solution space (what should an organization do about the problems uncovered). Framing a challenging and perhaps nontraditional problem space to explore possible outcomes, then engaging in planning workshops set in those future operating environments has resulted in some cases, startling possibilities for a unique organization to pursue. Possibilities arise from the study of six alternative worlds and they appear to cross multiple venues: physical, virtual, biological and even temporal. Thinking in new ways about the future-operating environment along with the understanding of emerging future technologies helps research planners in a historically advanced systems engineering organization develop a solid basis for AR&D investments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Natl Imagery & Mapping Agcy, Reston, VA 20191 USA. RP Krause, PH, Natl Imagery & Mapping Agcy, 12310 Sunrise Valley Dr,Mail Stop P-53, Reston, VA 20191 USA. CR *NAT REC OFF, 2000, PROBL ID DEF FOR 202 CASTI JL, 1997, WOULD BE WORLDS, P18 FAHEY L, 1998, LEARNING FUTURE FOSTER R, 2001, CREATIVE DESTRUCTION, P19 KRAUSE PH, 2000, PROTEUS INSIGHTS 202 NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 5 BP 479 EP 484 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 580YG UT ISI:000177263900004 ER PT J AU Peterson, JW TI Leveraging technology foresight to create temporal advantage SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The knowledge economy stands at the very edge of global chaos. As the business environment continues its rapid changes, possible organizational outcomes range from unmitigated disaster, to survival, to unparalleled success. Any particular outcome rests on the mostly mystical relationship between the technology ecology, human nature, decision cycles, information technologies, and the speed and veracity of their interactions. Intuition and inhibition, including subcognitive information processing, are the final bases from which the dominant members of the senior management team make most critical decisions, Intuition equates to personal (and sometimes shared) mental models based upon experience, training, conditioning and education. Such mental constructs are extremely powerful because they are held as "truth," and not as personalized models of perceived reality. Unfortunately, it is only the truly exceptional executive that cognitively updates existing mental models. Assuming global parity and access to equal quality in technologies and components, the future success of the enterprise becomes dependent upon its ability to gather and integrate the massive flows of information, to create knowledge, and then act decisively. The cumulative effects of these factors impact the perceived value of all the information used in decision making. The Management of Accelerated Technology and Innovation project (MATI), through its relationship with the Center for Technology and Innovation Management (CTIM) at Northwestern University, is currently beginning exploration of how to create information dominance. At the core of this exploration is the application of knowledge systems and decision processes that enable the dominant management team to exploit asymmetry, asynchronicity (concept of time-based bursts of knowledge collected, interpreted, and acted on) to improve decision making. Improved decision making, will, in turn, create temporal niches of advantage within the overall corporate battle-space. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Strategy Augmentat Grp Inc, Lisle, IL 60532 USA. RP Peterson, JW, Strategy Augmentat Grp Inc, 6374 Twin Oaks Lane, Lisle, IL 60532 USA. CR 2001, MARKET GUIDE MULTEX ANDERSON JL, 1998, 2 INT MAN TECHN C ZH BARKER JA, 1992, FUTURE EDGE DISCOVER DEGEUS AP, 1988, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P70 KLINE SJ, 1990, INN4B STANF U KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU PETERSON J, 2001, FUTURES RES Q, V17, P13 RADNOR M, 1998, INT ASS MAN TECHN OR RICHARDS CW, 1998, RIDING TIGER WHAT YO ROMERO S, 2000, NY TIMES 1122 ROMERO S, 2001, NY TIMES 0124 ROMERO S, 2001, NY TIMES 0210 ROMERO S, 2001, NY TIMES 0222 ROMERO S, 2001, NY TIMES 0507 TAUB S, 2001, SEC IS INVESTIGATING NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 5 BP 485 EP 494 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 580YG UT ISI:000177263900005 ER PT J AU Zhu, DH Porter, AL TI Automated extraction and visualization of information for technological intelligence and forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE competitive technological intelligence; technology forecasting; text mining; innovation indicators; technology maps AB Empirical technology forecasting (TF) is not well utilized in technology management. Three factors could enhance managerial utilization: capability to exploit huge volumes of available information, ways to do so very quickly, and informative representations that help manage emerging technologies. This paper reports on efforts to address these three factors via partially automated processes to generate helpful knowledge from text quickly and graphically. We first illustrate a process to generate a family of technology maps that help convey emphases, players, and patterns in the development of a target technology. Second, we exemplify the generation of particular "innovation indicators" that measure particular facets of R&D activity to relate these to technological maturation, contextual influences, and market potential. Both technology mapping and innovation indicators rely upon searches in huge, easily accessible, abstract databases and text mining software. We augment these through "macros" (programming scripts) that automatically sequence the necessary steps to generate particular desired information products. These analytical findings can be tailored to the needs of particular technology managers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Georgia Inst Technol, Technol Policy & Assessment Ctr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. Hefei Univ Technol, Inst Forecasting & Dev, Hefei 230009, Anhui, Peoples R China. RP Porter, AL, Georgia Inst Technol, Technol Policy & Assessment Ctr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. CR BERRY MW, 1995, COMPUTATIONAL METHOD CARLISLE JP, 1999, HAW INT C SYST SCI H COATES V, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V67, P1 DECKER KM, 1995, TR9502 CSCS SWISS SC DEERWESTER S, 1990, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V41, P391 GLYMOUR C, 1996, DATA MIN KNOWL DISC, V1, P25 KIRBY MR, 2000, 2000 WORLD AV C AM I KOSTOFF RN, VARIOUS REPORTS BIBL LOSIEWICZ P, 2000, J INTELL INF SYST, V15, P99 MANNILA H, 1996, 8 INT C SCI STAT DAT, P1 PORTER AL, IN PRESS FUTURES RES PORTER AL, 1994, SRA J, V21, P21 PORTER AL, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P237 PORTER AL, 1998, MINING BIBLIOGRAPHIC PORTER AL, 2000, WHY DONT TECHNOLOGY PORTER AL, 2001, 22314 SOC COMP INT P PORTER AL, 2001, ENHANCING UTILIZATIO SCHVANEVELDT RW, 1990, PATHFINDER ASS NETWO VANRAAN AFJ, 1993, RES EVALUAT, V3, P151 WATTS RJ, 1997, PRINCIPLES DATA MINI, P323 WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 WATTS RJ, 1998, COMPET INTELL REV, V9, P1 WATTS RJ, 1999, INF KNOWL SYST MANAG, V1, P45 ZHU D, 94 TOA ZHU D, TOA ILLUSTRATED CASE ZHU SP, 1999, COMPUTAT ENGN, V1, P1 NR 26 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 5 BP 495 EP 506 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 580YG UT ISI:000177263900006 ER PT J AU Conceicao, P Heitor, MV TI Knowledge interaction towards inclusive learning: Promoting systems of innovation and competence building SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID WAGE STRUCTURE AB This paper draws on recent conceptual approaches to economic growth, in which the accumulation of knowledge is the fundamental driving force behind growth. This fact is reflected in the trend in developed economies towards an increasing investment in advanced technology, R&D, education, and culture. Concepts such as learning ability, creativity, and sustained flexibility gain greater importance as guiding principles for the conduct of individuals, institutions, nations, and regions. It is thus legitimate to question the traditional way of viewing the role that contemporary institutions play in the process of economic development and to argue for the need to promote systems of innovation and competence building based on learning and knowledge networks. This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present work, which reviews the strongest themes of the 4th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), which was held in Curitiba, Parani, Brazil, in August of 2000. Under the broad designation of "learning and knowledge networks," the conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy, and management in a context much influenced by a dynamics of change and a necessary balance between the creation and diffusion of knowledge. While the idea of inclusive development developed in previous conferences entails a process of shared prosperity across the globe following local specific conditions, it is crucial to understand the dynamics of the process of knowledge accumulation, which drives a learning society. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended contributions to the Curitiba conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of different regional and national contexts. The aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views for the learning society. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Inst Super Tecn, IN, Ctr Innovat Technol & Policy Res, P-1049011 Lisbon, Portugal. RP Conceicao, P, Inst Super Tecn, IN, Ctr Innovat Technol & Policy Res, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049011 Lisbon, Portugal. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 69 IS 7 BP 641 EP 651 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 581YZ UT ISI:000177324000001 ER PT J AU Viotti, EB TI National Learning Systems - A new approach on technological change in late industrializing economies and evidences from the cases of Brazil and South Korea SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNICAL CHANGE; COUNTRIES AB The paper has two intertwined parts. The first one is a proposal for a conceptual and theoretical framework to understand technical change in late industrializing economies. The second part develops a kind of empirical test of the usefulness of that new framework by means of a comparative study of the Brazilian and South Korean cases. In the first part, it is claimed that the unwarranted use of the National Innovation System's (NIS's) approach to late industrializing economies could incur in serious shortcomings. The reason for this resides in the great differences that occur between the processes of technical change in these economies and those of industrialized countries. The central problem is the fact that NIS's studies are largely focused on innovation, and this is, in general, a phenomenon alien to late industrializing economies. The process of technical change typical of these economies is essentially a process of learning, rather than of innovation. The paper, in opposition to the current lax use of the concept, adopts a precise definition of learning. Learning is defined as the process of technical change achieved by the absorption of already existing techniques, i.e., of innovations engendered elsewhere, and the generation of improvements in the vicinity of the acquired innovations. In other words, learning is the process of technical change achieved by diffusion (in the perspective of technology absorption) and incremental innovation. Late industrializing economies should, therefore, be anlayzed as National Learning Systems (NLSs). It is indicated, moreover, that NLSs are prone to follow a technological strategy directed essentially towards the absorption of only technological capabilities of production. That type of technological behavior is characterized as a passive learning strategy, and the economies in which it prevails are characterized as Passive NLSs. A few late industrializing countries, however, have managed to develop (through a deliberate and consistent technological effort) a strategy of learning that also focuses on the mastering and improving of the absorbed technologies of production. That type of technological behavior is characterized as active learning strategy, and the economies in which it prevails, as Active NLSs. The comparative analysis of Brazil and South Korea, developed in the second part of the paper, demonstrates that the system of technical change of each country can be characterized as cases of Passive and Active NLSs, respectively. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Senado Fed, Consultoria Legislat, BR-70165900 Brasilia, DF, Brazil. RP Viotti, EB, Senado Fed, Consultoria Legislat, Anexo 2,Bloco B,2 Andar, BR-70165900 Brasilia, DF, Brazil. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 69 IS 7 BP 653 EP 680 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 581YZ UT ISI:000177324000002 ER PT J AU Landry, R Amara, N Lamari, M TI Does social capital determine innovation? To what extent? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE social capital; networks innovation; manufacturing firms; two-stage decision making process; novelty of innovation ID SYSTEMS AB This paper deals with two questions: Does social capital determine innovation in manufacturing firms? If it is the case, to what extent? To deal with these questions, we review the literature on innovation in order to see how social capital came to be added to the other forms of capital as an explanatory variable of innovation. In doing so, we have been led to follow the dominating view of the literature on social capital and innovation which claims that social capital cannot be captured through a single indicator, but that it actually takes many different forms that must be accounted for. Therefore, to the traditional explanatory variables of innovation, we have added five forms of structural social capital (business network assets, information network assets, research network assets, participation assets, and relational assets) and one form of cognitive social capital (reciprocal trust). Based on the survey data administered from April to June 2000 to 440 manufacturing firms of diverse industries in a region in the southwest of Montreal, we have found that 68.5% of the firms have developed product or process innovations during the 3 years preceding the survey. Assuming that innovation is not a discrete event but a complex process, we have modeled the decision to innovate as a two-stage decision-making process: in the first stage, the firms deal with the decision about whether to innovate or not whereas, at the second stage, the firms that have decided to innovate must make a decision about the degree of radicalness of the innovation to undertake. In a context where empirical investigations regarding the relations between social capital and innovation are still scanty, this paper makes contributions to the advancement of knowledge in providing new evidence regarding the impact and the extent of social capital on innovation at the two decision-making stages considered in this study. Regarding the decision to innovate or not that firms must initially make, we have provided strong evidence that diverse forms of social capital influence this decision and, more importantly, that marginal increases in social capital, especially in social capital taking the forms of participation assets and relational assets, contribute more than any other explanatory variable to increase the likelihood of innovation of firms. As for the decision to be made at the second stage concerning the magnitude of radicalness to bring in the development of new product or process innovations, this paper contributes to the advancement of knowledge by supplying the strongest evidence that diverse forms of social capital determine the radicalness of innovation, and more importantly, that social capital taking the form of research network assets contributes more than any other explanatory variable to explain the radicalness of innovation. The second variable that exerts the strongest impact on the radicalness of innovation is the number of different advanced technologies employed by firms for production. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Laval, Dept Polit Sci, Chair Disseminat & Uptake Res, CHSRF,CIHR, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada. RP Landry, R, Univ Laval, Dept Polit Sci, Chair Disseminat & Uptake Res, CHSRF,CIHR, Pav Charles De Koninck,Bur 4443, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 69 IS 7 BP 681 EP 701 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 581YZ UT ISI:000177324000003 ER PT J AU Fernandez-Arroyabe, JC Arranz, N TI Principles for the design of management control systems in knowledge networks - Experiences involving the European technology networks SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology; networks; control; complexity ID ALLIANCES AB The aim of this paper is to analyse technology-knowledge networks, especially the aspects relating to management control. The management of technology knowledge in a network is characterised by a number of special features that are typical of this form of organization, on the basis of which, we point out the main obstacles and disadvantages that condition the achievement of efficiency of their management. We will analyse management in these networks in light of the experience of various European institutions that actively participate in networks for the development of technological projects. The principal mechanisms used for the control of management will be obtained from the empirical study. Finally, on the basis of the empirical verification, we will consider the development of certain general principles for control in order to achieve greater efficiency in the management of knowledge in these networks. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Escuela Super Gest Comercial & Mkt, ESIC, Madrid 28223, Spain. UNED, Fac Econ, Dept Appl Econ & Hist, Madrid 28040, Spain. RP Fernandez-Arroyabe, JC, Escuela Super Gest Comercial & Mkt, ESIC, Avenida Valdenigrales S-N, Madrid 28223, Spain. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 69 IS 7 BP 703 EP 719 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 581YZ UT ISI:000177324000004 ER PT J AU Oliveira, P Roth, AV Gilland, W TI Achieving competitive capabilities in e-services SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE e-services; service operations strategy; competitive capabilities ID E-BUSINESS; KNOWLEDGE; FIRM; ORGANIZATIONS; TECHNOLOGY; CREATION; BRICKS; CLICKS AB What implications does the Internet have for service operations strategy? How can business performance of e-service companies be improved in today's knowledge-based economy? These research questions are the subject of this paper. We propose a model that links the e-service company's knowledge-based competencies with their competitive capabilities. Drawing from the current literature, our analysis suggests that services that strategically build a portfolio of knowledge-based competencies, namely human capital, structural capital, and absorptive capacity have more operations-based options, than their counterparts who are less apt to invest. We assume that the combinative capabilities of service quality, delivery, flexibility, and cost are determined by the investment in intellectual capital. Arguably, with the advent of the Internet, different operating models (e.g., bricks-and-mortar, clicks-and-mortar, or pure dot-com) have different strategic imperatives in terms of knowledge-based competencies. Thus, the new e-operations paradigm can be viewed as a configuration of knowledge-based competencies and capabilities. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ N Carolina, Kenan Flagler Business Sch, Operat Technol & Innovat Management Area, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. RP Oliveira, P, Univ N Carolina, Kenan Flagler Business Sch, Operat Technol & Innovat Management Area, McColl Bldg,CB 3490, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. CR 2000, ECONOMIST *FORR RES, 2000, UNPUB GLOB E COMM AP AMIT R, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V22, P493 ARTHUR WB, 1997, SERIES SCI COMPLEXIT, P1 BARUA A, 2000, NOT ALL DOT COMS CRE BOYER KK, 2002, J OPER MANAG, V20, P175 CHRISTENSEN C, 2000, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P42 CLARK KB, 1996, PRODUCTION OPERATION, V5, P42 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 DAVENI R, 1994, HYPERCOMPETITION MAN DESANCTIS G, 1999, ORGAN SCI, V10, P693 DESANCTIS G, 2001, INFORMATION TECHNOLO, P1 DRUCKER PF, 1992, HARVARD BUS REV, V70, P95 FITZSIMMONS JA, 1998, SERVICE MANAGEMENT O GOLDMAN SL, 1995, AGILE COMPETITORS VI GRANT RM, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P109 GULATI R, 2000, HARVARD BUS REV, V78, P107 HAMMER M, 1993, REENGINEERING CORPOR HESKETT JL, 1986, MANAGING SERVICE EC HITT LM, 1999, INFORM SYST RES, V10, P134 KASARDA JD, 1998, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V39, P73 KENNEDY K, 2000, UNPUB NEW LAWS MARKE KOGUT B, 1992, ORGAN SCI, V3, P383 LEE HL, 2001, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V42, P54 MENOR LJ, 2001, MANUFACTURING SERVIC, V3, P273 NONAKA I, 1994, ORGAN SCI, V5, P14 OLIVEIRA P, 2001, IMPRECISE DATA ENVEL PENROSE E, 1959, THEORY GROWTH FIRM PETERAF MA, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P179 PORTER ME, 2001, HARVARD BUS REV, V79, P63 QUINN JB, 1992, INTELLIGENT ENTERPRI ROTH AV, 1992, WORLD CLASS BANKING ROTH AV, 1993, ADV SERV MARKET MAN, V2, P1 ROTH AV, 1995, MANAGE SCI, V41, P1720 ROTH AV, 1996, HDB TECHNOLOGY MANAG ROTH AV, 1996, STRATEGY LEADERSHIP, V24, P30 ROTH AV, 2000, POM FACING NEW MILLE, P159 ROTH AV, 2001, HARV DEUSTO BUS JAN, P88 ROTH LM, 1991, MASS SPECTROM REV, V10, P303 SHAPIRO C, 1999, INFORMATION RULES ST STEWART TA, 1997, INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL VOSS C, 1990, BUS STRATEG REV, V11, P21 WATSON RT, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V40, P36 WILLCOCKS LP, 2001, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V42, P50 NR 44 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 69 IS 7 BP 721 EP 739 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 581YZ UT ISI:000177324000005 ER PT J AU Ferreira, P Lehr, W McKnight, L TI Optical networks and the future of broadband services SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The evolution of broadband services will depend on the widespread deployment of optical networks. The deployment of such networks will, in turn, help drive increased demand for additional capacity. In this world, service providers will have a growing need to be able to flexibly adjust capacity to accommodate uncertain and growing demand. In this article, we present a cost model that highlights the advantages of new optical networking technologies such as Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing (DWDM) over traditional architectures for optical networks. This analysis highlights the increased flexibility and scalability of DWDM networks, which lowers the deployment costs of such networks in light of growing and uncertain demand. The DWDM architecture holds the promise of allowing the emergence of wavelength markets, where traffic could be switched between service provider networks at the optical layer (without the need for multiple costly and wasteful electronic/optical conversions). While the DWDM and Optical Cross-Connect (OxC) technologies provide a technical infrastructure for supporting wavelength markets, additional developments are also likely to be required. This paper also considers some of the impediments to the growth of wavelength markets, namely, the need for secondary markets and standardized contracts. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 MIT, ITC, Res Program Internet & Telecoms Convergence, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. Columbia Univ, Grad Sch Business, New York, NY 10027 USA. Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Diplomacy, Murrow Ctr, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Ferreira, P, MIT, ITC, Res Program Internet & Telecoms Convergence, E40-234,1 Amherst St, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. CR 1999, PULSE ONLINE CARRIER 2000, BOARDWATCH MAGAZ SPR *BELL LABS, 2000, DENS WAV DIV MULT TU AGRAWAL G, 1997, FIBER OPTIC COMMUNIC CLARK D, 1999, WORKSH INT SERV QUAL COSSA B, 2000, EC POLICY ANAL MERGE DIXIT A, 1994, INVESTMENT UNCERTAIN FERREIRA P, 2000, DHPP232ESD127STP308 HUBBARD RG, 2000, INTERNET UPHEAVAL KAVASSALIS P, 2000, CONVERGANCE COMMUNIC KRAUSHAAR J, 1999, FEDERAL COMMUNICATIO LEHR W, 1998, COMMUNICATIONS STRAT LEHR W, 2000, 28 ANN TPRC AL VA SE MCKNIGHT L, 2001, INTERNET TELEPHONY RAMASWAMI R, 1998, OPTICAL NETWORKS PRA NR 15 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 69 IS 7 BP 741 EP 758 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 581YZ UT ISI:000177324000006 ER PT J AU Godet, M TI Unconventional wisdom for the future SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, F-75003 Paris, France. RP Godet, M, Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, 2 Rue Conte, F-75003 Paris, France. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2002 VL 69 IS 6 BP 559 EP 563 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 577PL UT ISI:000177070300006 ER PT J AU Shostak, AB TI Computer power and union prospects: CyberUnions or-faux unions? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Innovations in the use of computer power may offer the American labor movement an opportunity to reverse a 50-year decline. Progressive unions and locals have been experimenting with computer technology, and a "CyberGain" model today commands respect in and outside of Labor. While indispensable, the model appears insufficient. A case is made for adopting a radically new approach, a CyberUnion model, whose four components (futuristics, innovations, services and traditions) appear relevant to technological modernization efforts by labor organizations and many other types of bureaucracies. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Drexel Univ, Dept Culture & Commun, Haverford, PA 19041 USA. RP Shostak, AB, Drexel Univ, Dept Culture & Commun, Haverford, PA 19041 USA. CR 2002, J LABOR RES, V23, P2 *US DEP LAB BUR LA, 2001, UN MEMB 2000, P17 BIRNBAUM J, 2001, RECOVERY JOBS AM MAR, P17 CHAISON G, 2001, J LABOR RES, V22, P249 FIORITO J, 2000, LABOR STUDIES J, V24, P3 FREEMAN R, 2001, FINANCIAL TIMES 0511, P1 FREEMEN R, 1984, WHAT DO UNIONS DO GOLDTHORPE JH, 1969, AFFLUENT WORKER CLAS GREENHOUSE S, 1999, NY TIMES 1013, P21 GREER CR, 2002, J LABOR RES, V23, P215 HIRSCH BT, 2001, J LABOR RES, V22, P487 KATZ J, 2000, GEEKS LAZAROVICI L, 2001, AM WORK MAR, P9 LEE E, 1997, LABOUR MOVEMENT INTE LUCORE RE, 2002, J LABOR RES, V33, P202 MANDEL MJ, 2002, BUS WEEK 0401, P53 SHOSTAK AB, 1991, ROBUST UNIONISM INNO SHOSTAK AB, 1999, CYBERUNION EMPOWERIN SHOSTAK AB, 2001, TOMORROWS CYBERUNION, P82 SHOSTAK AB, 2002, CYBERUNION HDB TRANS TOWNSEND AM, 2001, J LABOR RES, V22, P275 NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2002 VL 69 IS 6 BP 567 EP 572 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 577PL UT ISI:000177070300008 ER PT J AU Kash, DE Rycroft, R TI Emerging patterns of complex technological innovation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology; innovation; complexity; policy; networks ID TACIT KNOWLEDGE; COLLABORATION; BUSINESS AB Technological innovation is increasingly concerned with complex products and processes. The trend toward greater complexity is suggested by the fact that in 1970 complex technologies comprised 43% of the 30 most valuable world goods exports, but by 1996 complex technologies represented 84% of those goods. These technologies are innovated by self-organizing networks. Networks are those linked organizations that create, acquire, and integrate the diverse knowledge and skills required to innovate complex technologies. Accessing tacit knowledge (i.e., experienced-based, unwritten know-how) and integrating it with codified knowledge is a particular strength of many networks. Self-organization refers to the capacity networks have for reordering themselves into more complex structures (e.g., replacing individual managers with management teams), and for using more complex processes (e.g., evolving strategies) without centralized, detailed managerial guidance. Case studies of the innovation pathways traced by six complex technologies indicate that innovations can be grouped into three quite distinct patterns. Transformation: the launching of a new trajectory by a new coevolving network and technology. Normal: the coevolution of an established network and technology along an established trajectory. Transition: the coevolutionary movement to a new trajectory by an established network and technology. Policy makers and managers face the greatest challenge during those periods of movement from one innovation trajectory to another. These are periods of turbulence; they are the embodiment of Schumpeter's "gales of creative destruction." This paper investigates how, in six case studies, core capabilities, complementary assets, organizational learning, path dependencies, and the selection environment varied among the innovation patterns. The paper builds on work reported in a recent book by the authors entitled: The Complexity Challenge: Technological Innovation for the 21st Century, Pinter, London, 1999. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 George Mason Univ, Sch Publ Policy, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. George Washington Univ, Elliott Sch Int Affairs, Ctr Int Sci & Technol Policy, Washington, DC USA. RP Kash, DE, George Mason Univ, Sch Publ Policy, 4400 Univ Dr,MS-3C6, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. CR 1998, ECONOMIST, V347, P69 *UN, 1996, YB INT TRAD STAT, V2 ARCHIBUGI D, 1997, FUTURES, V29, P122 ARTHUR WB, 1994, INCREASING RETURNS P, P1 AYRES RU, 1994, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V24, P35 BABA Y, 1993, INT SOC SCI J, V45, P26 BARTEZZAGHI E, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P122 BERCOVITZ JEL, 1997, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA, P238 BRUSONI S, 2001, IND CORP CHANGE, V10, P25 CHRISTENSEN C, 2001, FOREIGN AFF, V80, P87 CIMOLI M, 1995, J EVOLUTIONARY EC, V5, P243 CONSTANT EW, 1980, ORIGINS TURBOJET REV, P99 DEBRESSON C, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P368 DOSI G, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P1127 DOSI G, 1988, MANCHESTER SCH EC SO, V56, P128 DOSI G, 1997, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA, P54 DURAND T, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P378 EHRENBERG E, 1995, TECHNOVATION, V15, P437 FAGERBERG J, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P243 FAULKNER W, 1995, KNOWLEDGE FRONTIERS, P200 FOXALL GR, 1992, TECHNOVATION, V12, P193 FREEMAN C, 1994, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V18, P474 FREY DN, 1994, INTERFACES, V24, P87 GALLON MR, 1995, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V38, P21 GAVIN R, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P803 GRANSTRAND O, CALIF MANAGE REV, V39 GRANT EB, 1997, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V9, P149 GROENVELD P, 1997, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V40, P48 GROVE AS, 1996, ONLY PARANOID SURVIV, P35 HUTCHESON GD, 1996, SCI AM, V274, P54 INKPEN AC, 1996, CALIF MANAGE REV, V39, P123 KAMATH RR, 1994, HARVARD BUS REV, V72, P154 KEYS LK, 1997, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V14, P271 KLEVORICK AK, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P189 KODAMA F, 1991, SCI PUBL POLICY, V18, P390 KOEN PA, 1997, ENG MANAGEMENT J, V9, P7 LAMBE CJ, 1997, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V14, P102 LANE C, 1996, ORGAN STUD, V17, P365 LEI D, 1996, J MANAGE, V22, P551 LEI DT, 1997, INT J TECHNOLOGY MEA, V14, P211 LEONARD D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG, P118 LEONARD D, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V40, P112 LEVINTHAL D, 1997, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA, P172 LUNDGREN A, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA, P77 LYNN GS, 1996, CALIF MANAGE REV, V38, P10 LYNN LH, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P91 MASCARENHAS B, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V40, P123 MAZZOLENI R, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P424 MCKEE D, 1992, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V9, P239 MCMASTER MD, 1996, INTELLIGENCE ADVANTA, P113 MEYERS PW, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P100 MIYAZAKI K, 1995, BUILDING COMPETENCES, P27 MONTGOMERY JC, 1996, TRANSITION AGILE MAN, P1 MOORE GE, 1996, ENGINES INNOVATION U, P168 NARULA R, 1999, TECHNOVATION, V19, P292 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY, P262 NELSON RR, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY CONCEPT, P139 PATEL P, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P141 PRENCIPE A, 1997, RES POLICY, V25, P1265 PROBERT D, 1999, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V17, P646 RICHTER FJ, 1994, HUM SYST MANAGE, V13, P22 ROMME GA, 1994, HUM SYST MANAGE, V13, P49 ROSENBERG N, 1994, EXPLORING BLACK BOX, P16 SCHUMPETER JA, 1942, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM, P90 SENKER J, 1996, TECHNOVATION, V16, P225 SINGH K, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P339 SLOCUM JW, 1994, ORGAN DYN, V23, P33 SMEDS R, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P146 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 TEECE DJ, 1994, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V23, P15 TEECE DJ, 1997, STRAT MANAGE J, V18, P518 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I, P180 VONHIPPEL E, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P1 WHEATLEY MJ, 1996, STRATEGY LEADERSHIP, V24, P18 ZYSMAN J, 1996, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, P651 NR 75 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2002 VL 69 IS 6 BP 581 EP 606 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 577PL UT ISI:000177070300010 ER PT J AU Gottinger, HW TI Modeling stochastic innovation races SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation; race; competition; strategy; industrial economics ID COMPETITION AB We consider a firm moving towards a stochastic final destination to be chosen from a discrete set after a decision period. The decision period itself may be deterministic or stochastic. We assume the firm can move at variable innovation (R&D) speed associated with a monotone nondecreasing variable cost, and it can also stop and move anywhere. There is a fixed cost per time unit "carried" by the firm as well, associated with keeping at the knowledge (technology) frontier. We investigate various types of the firm's optimal trajectory in the R&D race during the decision period. The model is adapted and applied to racing behaviour in the Japanese telecommunication industry. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Kwansei Gakuin Univ, Sch Policy Studies, Sanda Kobe, Japan. RP Gottinger, HW, Kwansei Gakuin Univ, Sch Policy Studies, Sanda Kobe, Japan. CR FISHER F, 1983, SPINDLED MUTILATED E FUDENBERG D, 1983, EUR ECON REV, V22, P3 GOTTINGER HW, 1996, ANN REV EC, V38, P1 GROSSMAN GM, 1987, ECON J, V97, P372 HARRIS C, 1985, REV ECON STUD, V52, P193 HARRIS C, 1987, REV ECON STUD, V54, P305 KAMIEN M, 1982, MARKET STRUCTURE INN KIDDER T, 1981, SOUL NEW MACHINE LERNER J, 1997, RAND J ECON, V28, P228 REINGANUM J, 1989, HDB IND ORG, V1, CH14 ROCKAFELLAR RT, 1970, CONVEX ANAL ZANG I, 1981, MATH OPER RES, V6, P140 NR 12 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2002 VL 69 IS 6 BP 607 EP 624 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 577PL UT ISI:000177070300011 ER PT J AU Kuusi, O Meyer, M TI Technological generalizations and leitbilder - the anticipation of technological opportunities SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE foresight; Delphi; technology foresight; technological paradigm; technological generalization; leitbild; weak signal; millennium project; nanotechnology ID PARADIGMS AB Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on "nodes of discussion." These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are "technological generalization" and "leitbild." The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Inc. C1 VATT, FIN-00531 Helsinki, Finland. SYO, FIN-00701 Helsinki, Finland. Katholieke Univ Leuven, Steunpunt O&O Statistieken, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium. RP Kuusi, O, VATT, POB 269, FIN-00531 Helsinki, Finland. CR *IFTECH, 1988, FUT TECHN JAP, P17 *NISTEP, 1997, 52 NISTEP, P22 BACHMANN G, 1998, INNOVATIONSSCHUB NAN BUDWORTH DW, 1996, OVERVIEW ACTIVITIES, P13 CUHLS K, 1988, DELPHI 98 STUDIE GLO, P9 DEBACKERE K, 1994, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V6, P21 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC DREXLER KE, 1991, UNBOUNDING FUTURE, P294 DREXLER KE, 1992, NANOSYSTEMS MOL MACH, P526 EDELMAN GM, 1987, NEURAL DARWINISM THE FRENKEN JWM, 1998, NANOTECHNOLOGY MOL C, P289 GLENN JC, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56 GLENN JC, 1999, STATE FUTURE CHALLEN GREEN K, 17 CRIC U MANCH GRUPP H, 1993, TECHNOLOGIE BEGINN 2, P65 GRUPP H, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60 KUUSI O, 1999, EXPERTISE FUTURE USE, B59 MARZ L, 1994, INTEDISZIPLINARE TEC PHILIPSE AP, 1998, NANOTECHNOLOGY MOL C, P171 NR 20 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 2002 VL 69 IS 6 BP 625 EP 639 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 577PL UT ISI:000177070300012 ER PT J AU Devezas, TC Corredine, JT TI The nonlinear dynamics of technoeconomic systems - An informational interpretation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE long waves; Kondratieff waves; socioeconomic growth; logistic growth; chaos theory; systems science; information theory; cybernetics ID LONG-WAVE; GROWTH; CHAOS AB in this paper, a cybernetic framework is proposed that may help in understanding the specifics of the timely unfolding of recurrent social phenomena, as well as provide a basis for their application as useful forecasting tools for futures studies. The long-wave behavior in technoeconomic development was chosen to apply this theoretical framework. The time evolution of a technoeconomic system is described discretely as a logistically growing number of "interactors" adopting an emerging set of basic social and technological innovations. By using the logistic function as the probabilistic distribution of individuals exchanging and processing information in a finite niche of available information, it is possible to demonstrate that the rate of information entropy change exhibits a "wavy" aspect evidenced by a four-phased behavior denoting the unfolding of a complete long wave. The entire unfolding process, divided into two cycles, an innovation cycle and a consolidation cycle, is analyzed, and two very important threshold points are identified and discussed. The present theoretical analysis suggests that the technoeconomic system is not a purely chaotic process, but exhibits a limit-cycle behavior, whose basic mechanism is the periodical deployment and filling of information in a "leeway" field of active information. The pace of the process, and hence the duration of the long wave, is determined by two biological control parameters, one cognitive, driving the rate of exchanging and processing information at the microlevel, and the other generational, constraining the rate of transfer of knowledge (information integrated into a context) between successive generations at the macrolevel. Moreover, it is speculated that social systems mimic living systems as efficient negentropic machines, and making use of Prigogine's entropy balance equation for open systems, it is suggested that its cyclical behavior is probably the best way to follow nature's efficiency strategy. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Beira Interior, Fac Engn, P-6200001 Covilha, Portugal. RP Devezas, TC, Univ Beira Interior, Fac Engn, P-6200001 Covilha, Portugal. CR BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BERRY BJL, 1996, CHAOS THEORY SOCIAL, P215 BERRY BJL, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P1 BERRY BJL, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P63 BROWN T, 1996, CHAOS THEORY SOCIAL, P53 CAMBELL AB, 1993, APPL CHAOS THEORY PA CARVALHORODRIGU.F, 1989, J OPER RES SOC, V40, P789 CARVALHORODRIGU.F, 1993, EUR J OPER RES, V71, P45 CARVALHORODRIGUES F, 1996, BIOSYSTEMS, V38, P229 DASSBACH CHA, 1995, REVIEW, V18, P305 DEGREENE KB, 1996, CHAOS THEORY SOCIAL, P273 DEVEZAS TC, 1997, GLOBAL FUTURES B, V41, P5 DEVEZAS TC, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V68, P1 DUARTE C, THESIS FEYNMAN RP, 1966, LECT PHYSICS MECH RA, V1 GOLDSTEIN JS, 1988, LONG CYCLES PROSPERI HAKEN H, 1978, SYNERGETICS INTRO HILBORN RC, 1994, CHAOS NONLINEAR DYNA KAUFFMAN S, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE KONDRATIEFF ND, 1926, ARCH SOZIALWISSENSCH, V56, P573 LAYZER D, 1990, COSMOGENESIS GROWTH LI TY, 1975, AM MATH MONTHLY, V82, P985 LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOS SCI, V20, P130 MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V10, P257 MARCHETTI C, 1986, FUTURES, V17, P376 MAY RM, 1976, NATURE, V261, P459 MENSCH G, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY METZ R, 1983, PRODUCTIVITY EC EURO, P175 MILL JS, 1967, COLLECTED WORKS ESSA, V4 MODELSKI G, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V39, P22 MODELSKI G, 1996, INT STUD QUART, V40, P321 MODELSKI G, 1996, LEADING SECTORS WORL MODELSKI G, 2000, WORLD SYSTEM HIST SO, P24 MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT CHAOS RICHARDS D, 1993, INT STUD QUART, V37, P55 SHANNON CE, 1948, BELL SYST TECH J, V27, P379 SHANNON CE, 1948, BELL SYST TECH J, V27, P623 SINGH J, 1966, INFORMATION THEORY TRIBUS M, 1971, SCI AM, V225, P179 NR 40 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2002 VL 69 IS 4 BP 317 EP 357 PG 41 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 570YQ UT ISI:000176688400001 ER PT J AU Modelski, G Perry, G TI "Democratization in long perspective" revisited SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE democratization; innovation-diffusion; Fisher-Pry model ID DEMOCRACY AB The worldwide spread of democracy experienced in the past century and a half may be understood as a nonlinear (learning) process of innovation-diffusion. A Fisher-Pry test of this proposition was first reported by Modelski and Perry in a 1989 paper (published in this journal in 1991) on the basis of a data set that covered the period 1837-1986. A retest of the innovation-diffusion thesis has now been performed with basically the same methodology but on a refined data set and with data including the year 2000. It reaffirms the earlier result, and confirms that the 50% saturation point (flex-point) has been attained. It also reaffirms the earlier forecast that the 90% saturation level for democracy would not be reached until early in the 22nd century. The time constant (the time elapsing between 10% and 90% saturation) of this learning process is now estimated at 228 years. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Pierce Coll, Tacoma, WA USA. RP Modelski, G, 2510 Virginia Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. CR BURKHART RE, 1998, UNPUB MEASURES DEMOC DAHL R, 1998, DEMOCRACY FUKUYAMA F, 1992, END HIST LAST MAN JAGGERS K, 1995, J PEACE RES, V32, P469 KARATNYCKY A, 1999, J DEMOCR, V10, P112 KARATNYCKY A, 2000, J DEMOCR, V11, P187 MODELSKI G, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI, P19 MODELSKI G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P23 MODELSKI G, 1996, LEADING SECTORS WORL OLOUGHLIN J, 1998, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V88, P545 PIANO A, 2001, J DEMOCR, V12, P87 VANHANEN T, 1997, PROSPECTS DEMOCRACY NR 12 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2002 VL 69 IS 4 BP 359 EP 376 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 570YQ UT ISI:000176688400002 ER PT J AU Modis, T TI Forecasting the growth of complexity and change SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE complexity growth; punctuated equilibrium; evolutionary milestones; cosmic calendar; change slowdown AB In the spirit of punctuated equilibrium, complexity is quantified relatively in terms of the spacing between equally important evolutionary turning points (milestones). Thirteen data sets of such milestones, obtained from a variety of scientific sources, provide data on the most important complexity jumps between the big bang and today. Forecasts for future complexity jumps are obtained via exponential and logistic fits on the data. The quality of the fits and common sense dictate that the forecast by the logistic function should be retained. This forecast stipulates that we have already reached the maximum rate of growth for complexity, and that in the future, complexity's rate of change (and the rate of change in our lives) will be declining. One corollary is that we are roughly halfway through the lifetime of the universe. Another result is that complexity's rate of growth has built up to its present high level via seven evolutionary subprocesses, themselves amenable to logistic description. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Growth Dynam, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Modis, T, Growth Dynam, Rue Beau Site 2, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. CR BARROW JD, 1980, SCI AM, V242, P118 BOYER PD, 2000, COMMUNICATION 1227 BURENHULT G, 1993, FIRST HUMANS HUMAN O COREN R, 1998, EVOLUTIONARY TRAJECT ELDREDGE N, 1972, MODELS PALEOBIOLOGY HEIDMANN J, 1989, COSMIC ODYSSEY OBSER JOHANSON D, 1996, LUCY LANGUAGE KAUFFMAN SA, 1993, ORIGINS ORDER SELF O KELLY K, 1994, OUT CONTROL MODIS T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P63 PRICE DJD, 1986, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI SAGAN C, 1989, DRAGONS EDEN SPECULA SCHOPF JW, 1991, MAJOR EVENTS HIST LI SMITH N, 1979, ANTIPODE, V11, P24 TOBIAS P, 1991, MAJOR EVENTS HIST LI, CH6 NR 15 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2002 VL 69 IS 4 BP 377 EP 404 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 570YQ UT ISI:000176688400003 ER PT J AU Kathuria, V TI Technology transfer for GHG reduction - A framework with application to India SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology transfer; FCCC; capacity building; framework; GHG reducing technologies ID ECONOMICS AB The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) expressly commits the Annex I countries to provide financial resources and technology to developing countries so as to control, reduce, or prevent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The present paper argues that the ultimate goal of any action in the field of transfer of technology (TT) should not be only just to apply particular technological solutions to the GHG problem but to enhance the capabilities of developing countries to assess the need, select, import, assimilate, adapt, and develop the appropriate technologies. The paper also looks into the various dimensions of TT that results in capacity building in developing countries. Using case studies of two GHG-reducing technologies, one from the demand side [compact fluorescent lamp (CFL)] and the other from the supply side [photovoltaic (PV) cell], the paper tries to find out whether TT has been adequate in significant capacity building. The case studies show that the technology absorption is still incomplete. High up-front costs and lack of awareness (information) has resulted in significant underutilization of capacities, thus acting as major barriers in their diffusion. The paper also looks into the various market-and government-related barriers forestalling the diffusion of various GHG-reducing technologies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Gothenburg, Dept Econ, Environm Econ Unit, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. RP Kathuria, V, Univ Gothenburg, Dept Econ, Environm Econ Unit, Box 640, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. CR 1997, INDIAN EXPRESS 1213 *CAG, 1993, 502CA CAG *CAG, 1998, 5 CAG *ECQ, 1997, EL CONS Q *TERI, 1991, TERI DAT FIL *TERI, 1994, SOC EC IMP ASS STUD *UNCSTD, 1991, ENV SOUND TECHN ASS ACHANTA AN, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE ASIA, P51 AGARWAL A, 1993, COMPETITION COLLABOR DAHLMAN CJ, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GENERATIO, P154 DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DESAI AV, 1988, INDIAN EC, P163 ENOS JL, 1987, ADOPTION DIFFUSION I ERICKSON JD, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1129 FRANSMAN M, 1986, MACHINERY EC DEV FRANSMAN M, 1986, MACHINERY EC DEV, P1 GADGIL A, 1991, ADV LIGHTING WINDOW GADGIL A, 1996, 903058 U CAL GADGIL AJ, 1991, ENERG POLICY, V19, P449 GOODSTEIN ES, 1995, EC ENV GRUBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH HILL H, 1988, FOREIGN INVESTMENT I HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC JACKSON I, 1997, CLIMATE CHANGE N S C KAPLINSKY R, 1990, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, P19 KATHURIA V, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P25 KATZ J, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GENERATIO KOPLOW DN, 1993, FEDERAL ENERGY SUBSI MABOYI B, 1995, RENEWABLE ENERGY DEV, V8, P3 NATH NCB, 1987, PUBLICATION SERIES B, V11 PARIKH JK, 1994, PLANNING DEMAND SIDE QUAZI HA, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACI RATH A, 1993, GREEN TECHNOLOGIES D SINGH D, 1996, EVALUATION RENEWABLE TURNER T, 1982, TDBC6AC95 WEREKOBROBBY CY, 1986, P AFR EN PROGR C 25, V2 ZWEIBEL K, 1990, HARNESSING SOLAR POW NR 37 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2002 VL 69 IS 4 BP 405 EP 430 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 570YQ UT ISI:000176688400004 ER PT J AU Bruun, H Hukkinen, J Eklund, E TI Scenarios for coping with contingency: The case of aquaculture in the Finnish Archipelago Sea SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE scenarios; methodology; contingency; aquaculture; Finland; archipelago; future studies ID ECOLOGICAL SUSTENANCE; MANAGEMENT AB Scenario-making is a common method for anticipating technological and other kinds of futures. This article discusses scenario-making from a methodological point of view. How do we cope with contingency, that is, the problem of not knowing what developmental trajectories in the present will turn out to determine future events? Two distinctions are suggested as tools for analyzing scenario-making strategies. The first concerns the analytical lenses, or epistemic approaches in our terminology, with which the future is understood. The second deals with the degree of variance in the future development. We divide the epistemic approaches to the future into conventional and unconventional scenarios, and the degree of variance in the future development into trend- and event-based scenarios. We argue that both unconventional and event-based scenarios have been neglected as tools for coping with contingency. A case study - the technological system of fish fanning in southwestem Finland is used to demonstrate the difference that unconventional and event-based scenarios can make for representations of the future. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Helsinki Univ Technol, Lab Environm Protect, Espoo 02015, Finland. Univ Helsinki, Swedish Sch Social Sci, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland. RP Hukkinen, J, Helsinki Univ Technol, Lab Environm Protect, POB 2300, Espoo 02015, Finland. CR 1997, VALTIONEUVOSTON KANS *COMM DOM FISH, 1990, KOMITEAMIETINTO, V18 *COMM PREV ENV DAM, 1982, BET AVG KOMM FOR MIL *EUR COMM, 1996, PESCA INFO, V2 *FINN ENV I, 1996, MILJ FISK 1996 2005 *FINN GAM FISH RES, 1993, YAMPARISTO, V11 *FINN GAM FISH RES, 1999, FISH CULTURE, P2 *FISH FARM 2020 CO, 1991, TARG PROGR AQ REP AQ, V9 *GOV COMM FISH FAR, 1967, KAL MIET *HELCOM, 1992, BALT SEA JOINT COMPR *MIN DOM AFF, 1987, FISK SKARG *PROF FISH WORK GR, 1996, TYOR MMM *US COUNC ENV QUAL, 1982, GLOB 2000 REP PRES E *WORK GROUP WAT PR, 1992, KAL VES ANDERSSON K, 1998, NARINDSUTVECKLINGEN ANDERSSON K, 1998, NORDENSKIOLD SAMFUND, V57, P37 ANDERSSON K, 1998, SOCIOL RURALIS, V39, P377 ASPLUND J, 1979, TEORIER FRAMTIDEN BOHLER T, 1999, HUMANEKOLOGISK PERSP, P169 BRUUN H, 1998, NATURE LIFE WORLD TH, P167 BRUUN H, 1998, NO SHORES ISLANDS HU, P33 BRUUN H, 1998, NORDENSKIOLD SAMFUND, V57, P25 BRUUN H, 1999, TERRESTRAIL TRANSECT, P117 BRUUN H, 2000, EPISTEMIC ENCOUNTERS CLARK N, 1995, EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMIC COATES JF, 1994, FUTURES RES METHODOL DYKE C, 1988, EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMIC EKLUND E, 1984, FISKODLINGENS BIOL S EKLUND E, 1986, SUOMEN LOHENKASVATTA, V2, P45 EKLUND E, 1987, SKAGARD, V3, P4 EKLUND E, 1987, SKARGARD, V3, P30 EKLUND E, 1987, SKARGARD, V3, P52 EKLUND E, 1988, NORDREFO, V2, P100 EKLUND E, 1989, NORDENSKIOLD SAMFUND, V4, P65 EKLUND E, 1996, AQUACULTURE DEV SOCI, P59 FOLKE C, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P234 FORSSTROM R, 2000, HELSINGIN SANOMAT, A8 FRANDBERG L, 1998, HUMANEKOLOGISKA SKRI, P15 GODET M, 1993, ANTICIPATION ACTION GORDON TJ, 1994, FUTURES RES METHODOL GOULD SJ, 1999, WONDERFUL LIFE BURGE GRASSL H, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P1991 HAAS PM, 1997, KNOWLEDGE POWER INT, P1 HAJER M, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P246 HAJER MA, 1995, POLITICS ENV DISCOUR HAKANEN M, 1987, KALANVILJELYN ELINKE HEAL OW, 1999, ARCTIC ALPINE TERRES HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUKKINEN J, 1994, COHERENCE CHAOS OUR HUKKINEN J, 1995, ECOL ECON, V15, P59 HUKKINEN J, 1995, EUR ENV, V5, P98 HUKKINEN J, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P112 HUKKINEN J, 1999, I ENV MANAGEMENT CON HUKKINEN J, 1999, TRANSFORMATION LEARN, P377 HUKKINEN J, 2000, FUTURE CHALLENGES I, P155 HUSTICH I, 1975, SKARGARDEN IDAG MORG JAATINEN S, 1968, GEOGRAFISK REGIONPLA KARTTUNEN E, 1994, FISKODLING MILJO LEHTONEN H, 1992, ILMASTON MUUTOSTEN V MANNERMAA M, 1991, EVOLUTIONAARIEN TULE MANNERMAA M, 1999, TULEVAISUUDEN HALLIN MATTSSON J, 1995, FISKODLINGENS SAMHAL MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH EARTH MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS GLOBAL COLLAP NIINILUOTO I, 1993, MITEN TUTKIMME TULEV PELTONIEMI K, 1984, MUISTELMIA UUDEN ELI PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PIRHONEN J, 1992, SUOMEN LOHENKASVATTA ROCHLIN GI, 1997, TRAPPED NET ROE E, 1998, TAKING COMPLEXITY SE SALMI J, 1997, LAHIKUVIA AMMATTIKAL SANTALA A, 1989, MAA JA METSATALONDEN, V13 URHO L, 1995, UUSIEN KALALAJIEN JA VAPAAVUORI M, 1993, MITEN TUTKIMME TULEV VARTIA P, 1992, KANSANTALOUS 2017 NA VEIKOLA K, 1996, KALATUTKIMUKSIA, P118 VESALA H, 2000, HELSINGIN SANOMAT, A6 VESALA H, 2000, HELSINGIN SANOMAT, A7 WIDESKOG M, 1992, SUOMEN LOHENKASVATTA WIDTH T, 2000, HELSINGIN SANOMAT, A7 WIDTH T, 2000, HELSINGIN SANOMAT, A8 WIDTH T, 2000, HELSINGIN SANOMAT, C1 WOLLENBERG C, 1985, GOLDEN GATE METROPOL NR 83 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2002 VL 69 IS 2 BP 107 EP 127 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 555TY UT ISI:000175810400001 ER PT J AU Roberts, EB Bellotti, PR TI Managerial determinants of industrial R&D performance - An analysis of the global chemicals/materials industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE R&D performance; chemicals/materials industry; technology strategy AB A general framework has been proposed for analyzing the impact of various managerial strategies on the overall outcomes of a firm's research and development (R&D) efforts. It suggests that three elements are critical: posture and direction, systems, and adjustment processes. The framework led to the development of a series of 20 hypotheses regarding managerial practice. These hypotheses were tested using data gathered from 29 chemicals/materials firms as part of a global assessment of strategic management of technology. Multifaceted measures of R&D impact were evaluated: (i) an index of R&D performance, (ii) time from concept to realization of product and process innovation, and (iii) satisfaction of three different stakeholders of the firm's R&D undertakings. Important differences were indicated among the strategies that most affect each performance measure, although the use of multifunctional teams and the corporate-level development and acceptance of technology strategy mechanisms were significant factors across the board. The results support the framework in that key contributors to R&D outcomes were found in managerial approaches that relate to each of the three elements. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 MIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA. Rabobank Int, Sao Paulo, Brazil. RP Roberts, EB, MIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, E52-535 50 Mem Dr, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA. CR *EUR CHEM IND COUN, 2000, FACTS FIG ADLER PS, 1992, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V33, P19 HOLLANDER S, 1965, SOURCES INCREASED EF KATZ R, 1980, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V2, P81 KATZ R, 1982, ADM SCI Q, V27, P81 ROBERTS EB, 1979, RES MANAGE, P26 STOBAUGH R, 1988, INNOVATION COMPETITI VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION NR 8 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2002 VL 69 IS 2 BP 129 EP 152 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 555TY UT ISI:000175810400002 ER PT J AU Blanning, RW Reinig, BA TI Political event analysis using group support systems SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE risk analysis; political risk; political event; group support systems ID IDEA GENERATION; HONG-KONG; INTERNATIONAL-BUSINESS; ANONYMITY; DELPHI; TECHNOLOGY; FUTURE; TRADE; WORK AB Corporate and public sector managers often look to futurists for help in forecasting changes in their internal and external organizational environments. Futurists use techniques such as the Delphi method and scenario development to identify possible futures, often consisting of events and trends, occurring both globally and within a specific geographical region. As corporations expand into global markets, they become vulnerable to political events occurring in specific regions such as expropriation of assets, the imposition of currency controls, and targeted taxation. In analyzing the risk associated with these events, it is often useful to call on the opinions and judgments of knowledgeable persons closest to the events. Yet some of these persons may be reluctant to discuss their opinions openly. Therefore, it may be helpful to allow them to discuss issues among themselves under conditions of mutual anonymity. Group support systems (GSS) allow groups to conduct such discussions. We present a two-part methodology for analyzing political events using GSS, one to be used for an initial analysis and the other for a follow-up comparison. We then demonstrate our methodology by applying it to Hong Kong (1) before its reunification with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and (2) after the reunification. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 San Diego State Univ, Coll Business Adm, Dept Informat & Decis Syst, San Diego, CA 92182 USA. Vanderbilt Univ, Owen Grad Sch Management, Nashville, TN USA. RP Reinig, BA, San Diego State Univ, Coll Business Adm, Dept Informat & Decis Syst, San Diego, CA 92182 USA. CR 1996, NEWSWEEK, V127, P37 1999, ECON, V351, P55 ALLEN J, 1997, SEEING RED CHINAS UN BATSON B, 1996, CHINA BUS REV, V23, P38 BLANNING RW, 1998, LONG RANGE PLANN, V31, P900 BLANNING RW, 1999, FUTURES, V31, P39 BOSTROM RP, 1992, COMPUTER AUGMENTED T BOTAN C, 1996, COMMUN MONOGR, V63, P293 CARLSON RC, 1980, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V18, P321 CHAKRAVARTI AK, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P155 CONNOLLY T, 1990, MANAGE SCI, V36, P689 COPLIN WD, 1993, PLANN REV, V21, P32 COPLIN WD, 1994, HDB COUNTRY POLITICA CZINKOTA MR, 1997, J INT BUS STUD, V28, P827 DELATORRE J, 1987, HDB FORECASTING MANA, P373 DEMESQUITA B, 1996, RED FLAG HONG KONG DENNIS AR, 1994, IDEF US GROUP C RICH, P99 DENNIS AR, 1997, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V14, P155 DUNN DW, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1557 FRANKEL JA, 1996, 5714 NAT BUR EC RES GALLUPE RB, 1991, J APPL PSYCHOL, V76, P137 GARTEN JE, 1997, BIG 10 BIG EMERGING GRANITSAS A, 1998, FAR E EC REV, V161, P59 HAMMOND GP, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P131 HARTMAN L, 1998, J BUS STRAT, V60, P16 HASHMI MA, 1992, GLOBAL FINANCE J, V3, P137 HAYNE SC, 1997, INT J HUM-COMPUT ST, V47, P429 HERAUD JA, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P55 HO JD, 1995, COLONY SAR, P413 HOWELL LD, 1994, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V29, P70 JESSUP LM, 1990, MIS QUART, V14, P313 KENNEDY CR, 1987, POLITICAL RISK MANAG KNECHT GB, 1998, WALL ST J 0417, A8 KORBIN SJ, 1979, J INT BUS STUD, V10, P67 KUWAHARA T, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P5 LEE R, 1997, S CHINA MORNING 0608, P11 MARBER P, 1994, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V29, P30 MERCER D, 1996, FUTURES, V28, P829 MERCER D, 1996, MANAGE DECIS, V34, P55 MISHRA JM, 1998, SAM ADV MANAGE J, V63, P4 MOBIUS M, 1995, INVESTORS GUIDE EMER MOBIUS MJ, 1996, MOBIUS EMERGING MARK MOLE D, 1996, MANAGING NEW HONG KO NUNAMAKER JF, 1991, COMMUN ACM, V34, P40 NUNAMAKER JF, 1997, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V13, P163 OSHEA L, 1998, ASIA BUS, V34, P12 OVERHOLT WH, 1993, RISE CHINA EC REFORM PENSONNEAULT A, 1997, P 30 ANN HAW INT C S, V2, P134 RING PS, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V11, P141 ROBERTI M, 1994, FALL HONG KONG ROSENBERG RS, 1999, J BUS ETHICS, V22, P3 RUMMEL RJ, 1978, HARVARD BUS REV, V56, P67 SCHEIBE M, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P262 SCIUTTO JE, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V547, P131 SHIN T, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P125 SIMON JD, 1992, COUNTRY RISK ANAL DH, P118 STAPENHURST F, 1995, INT EXEC, V37, P127 THUROW L, 1998, NEW YORK REV BOOKS, V45, P22 TRIANDIS H, 1995, INDIVIDUALISM COLLEC VALACICH JS, 1992, SMALL GR RES, V23, P49 VALACICH JS, 1994, ORGAN BEHAV HUM, V57, P448 WEATHERALL A, 1996, INTRO ELECT MEETING WEINBERGER CW, 1998, FORBES, V162, P41 WILENIUS M, 1997, FUTURES, V29, P845 NR 64 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2002 VL 69 IS 2 BP 153 EP 172 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 555TY UT ISI:000175810400003 ER PT J AU McGrath, RN TI A study of NASA's vision for the future of air travel SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE life cycle cost; SATS; NASA AB This paper presents results of a study that examined the promise that when considering the economic value of an individual's time. National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Small Airplane Transportation System (SATS) concept will be seen as an economical transportation mode of choice for the private, US citizen. Unit costs of acquiring, owning, and operating SATS aircraft configurations were derived from previous research that examined SATS life cycle costs (LCC). Trip-by-trip comparisons were then made to comparable airline alternatives. The economic value of time was estimated in accordance with accepted accounting and human resource practices. NASA's premise was supported. Before considering the value of time, SATS aircraft were generally competitive with the airlines. After considering the value of time, SATS emerged unambiguously as not only the more economical mode of travel, but on virtually every one of 200 trips created, the margin of superiority was large. On the other hand, it was not clear as to which one of four SATS aircraft configurations was the best SATS choice. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Embry Riddle Aeronaut Univ, Dept Business Adm, Daytona Beach, FL 32114 USA. RP McGrath, RN, Embry Riddle Aeronaut Univ, Dept Business Adm, 600 S Clyde Morris, Daytona Beach, FL 32114 USA. CR 1983, RAND MCNALLY ROAD AT *NAT BUS AV ASS, 1999, TRAV BUS TRAV PROD T *SMALL AIRCR TRANS, 2000, FLOR PLANN M FOR NAS AFUAH A, 1998, INNOVATION MANAGEMEN CASTRO R, 1986, CORPORATE AVIATION M CHRISTENSEN CM, 1997, INNOVATORS DILEMMA DODGSON M, 1997, HDB IND INNOVATION HOLMES BJ, SMALL AIRCRAFT TRANS MCGRATH RN, 2000, SATS PRECURSOR STUDY TUSHMAN ML, 1997, MANAGING STRATEGIC I NR 10 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2002 VL 69 IS 2 BP 173 EP 193 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 555TY UT ISI:000175810400004 ER PT J AU Franses, PH TI Testing for residual autocorrelation in growth curve models SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE growth curve models; residual autocorrelation; forecasting ID DIFFUSION; SELECTION AB Growth curve models are frequently used for technological forecasting. Despite the practical importance of these models, the time series properties of the residuals in these models are often overlooked. Neglected serial correlation in the residuals leads to suboptimal statistical inference and inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts. This paper gives a general diagnostic test for residual autocorrelation, which is based on the Lagrange multiplier principle. The test is illustrated for the logistic curve and the Gompertz curve. It is shown that the test can also be helpful for selecting between these two models. Simulation experiments indicate the usefulness of the test in terms of size and power. Next, two applications illustrate the empirical relevance of the test. Finally, it is illustrated that more appropriate error structures can lead to substantially better out-of-sample forecasts indeed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Erasmus Univ, Econometr Inst, Dept Marketing & Org, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. RP Franses, PH, Erasmus Univ, Econometr Inst, Dept Marketing & Org, H11-34 POB 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 DAVIDSON R, 1993, ESTIMATION INFERENCE FRANSES PH, 1998, TIME SERIES MODELS MAHAJAN V, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1589 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MARMOLINERO C, 1980, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V31, P141 MEADE N, 1998, MANAGE SCI, V44, P1115 PUTSIS WP, 2000, NEW PRODUCT DIFFUSIO YOUNG P, 1989, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P501 NR 9 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 2002 VL 69 IS 2 BP 195 EP 204 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 555TY UT ISI:000175810400005 ER PT J AU Mishra, S Deshmukh, SG Vrat, P TI Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technological forecasting; main battle tank; information technology ID JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENT; DELPHI; DECOMPOSITION; MANAGEMENT; INDUSTRY; PRIMER AB Technological forecasting (TF) has been acknowledged as an effective tool in setting technology strategies. A large number of techniques have been evolved for TF. The quality of forecasts would greatly depend on proper selection and application of appropriate techniques. The application demands that the technique used need to be time-, space- and technology-specific. An analysis of the limitations of TF is indicative of the fact that very little effort has been made to select an appropriate technique for a particular technology. Selection of an appropriate technique in a particular situation could affect the accuracy and reliability of the forecast. A methodology is suggested in this paper to match the technique to a technology by mapping both technology and technique characteristics on a common scale. The technique whose profile closely fits the technology profile becomes an obvious choice. This method will help in selection of complementary and appropriate techniques for a technology. Two specific technologies pertaining to Main Battle Tank (MBT) and Information Technology (IT) have been selected to illustrate application of proposed methodology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Indian Inst Technol, Dept Mech Engn, New Delhi 110016, India. RP Deshmukh, SG, Indian Inst Technol, Dept Mech Engn, New Delhi 110016, India. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 1 BP 1 EP 27 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 507HW UT ISI:000173021900001 ER PT J AU Richards, GR TI A simulation model with endogenous technical advance: Information technology and increasing returns from research SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE simulation model; production function; technological advance; R&D; computer quality ID R-AND-D; GROWTH; PRODUCTIVITY; MARKET AB This paper builds a simulation model in which technological advance is stochastic, and largely endogenous. Technology consists of two main components, research and development (R&D) and residual technical advance. R&D comprises a government-funded component, which is treated as exogenous, and a component funded by private industry, which is determined within the model. Industry-funded R&D is modeled as analogous to a stock of capital: investments depend on the rental price, or user cost of research, and the accelerator. The R&D elasticity in the production function is time-varying and increasing: R&D becomes more efficient over time. The increase in the R&D elasticity is determined in the model by computer quality. There is a relationship between residual technical advance during the 1990s and the increased share of computers and software in final demand, although this does not hold for all earlier periods. The production function also includes disaggregated capital stocks: equipment and software, housing, nonresidential structures, and government capital. The econometric model is used to conduct simulation experiments. The basic simulation illustrates how changes in computer quality affect both the R&D elasticity and residual technology. The remaining simulations examine policy issues: the R&D tax credit, and government funding for basic research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Intel Corp, Santa Clara, CA 95051 USA. RP Richards, GR, Intel Corp, 2200 Miss Coll Blvd, Santa Clara, CA 95051 USA. CR *BUR LAB STAT, 1989, B BUR LAB STAT, V2331 ACEMOGLU D, 2000, NATL BUREAU EC RES W, V7544 ASCHAUER DA, 1989, J MONETARY ECON, V23, P177 BARRO RJ, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, S103 BARRO RJ, 1995, EC GROWTH BERNSTEIN J, 1991, NATL BUREAU EC RES W, V3625 BRYNJOLFSSON E, 1996, ADV COMPUT, V43, P179 BRYNJOLFSSON E, 1996, MANAGE SCI, V42, P1627 CABALLERO RJ, 1993, NBER MACROECON ANN, V8, P15 CABALLERO RJ, 1994, REV ECON STAT, V76, P52 CHRISTENSEN LR, 1973, REV ECON STAT, V55, P28 CHRISTIANO LJ, 1992, J BUS ECON STAT, V10, P237 DENBUTTER FAG, 1996, ECON MODEL, V13, P15 ECKSTEIN O, 1983, DRI MODEL US EC GORDON RJ, 2000, PRODUCTIVITY TECHNOL, P19 GRILICHES Z, 1979, BELL J ECON, V10, P92 GRILICHES Z, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P1661 GRILICHES Z, 1991, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V1, P183 GRILICHES Z, 1998, R D PRODUCTIVITY ECO HALL B, 1993, NATL BUREAU EC RES V, V7, P1 HALL BH, 2000, NATL BUREAU EC RES W, V7741 HALL RE, 1967, AM ECON REV, V57, P391 JAFFE AB, 1986, AM ECON REV, V76, P984 JAFFE S, 1972, PRICE INDEX DEFLATIO, P72 JANKOWSKI JE, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P195 JORGENSON DW, 1987, PRODUCTIVITY US EC G JORGENSON DW, 1990, 50 YEARS EC MEASUREM JORGENSON DW, 1995, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V3, P295 JORGENSON DW, 2000, BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC, P125 KALMAN RE, 1960, T ASME D, V82, P35 KOPP G, 2000, J BUS ECON STATIST, V18, P284 KORTUM S, 1998, CARN ROCH CONF SERIE, V48, P247 LICHTENBERG FR, 1991, ECON INQ, V29, P203 LICHTENBERG FR, 1995, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V3, P207 MORRISON CJ, 1997, REV ECON STAT, V79, P647 NADIRI MI, 1993, NATL BUREA EC RES WO, V4591 OLINER SD, 1994, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P273 PAKES A, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI, P73 ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, S71 SADEE N, 1996, UNPUB COMPUTER PRICE SICHEL DE, 1997, COMPUTER REVOLUTION SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 STRUCKMEYER CS, 1986, SO EC J, V53, P127 VERSPAGEN B, 1992, J MACROECON, V14, P631 NR 45 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 1 BP 29 EP 51 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 507HW UT ISI:000173021900002 ER PT J AU Yin, JZ TI Relating learning capability to the success of computer-integrated manufacturing SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE CIM; organizational learning; learning capability ID TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER; ORGANIZATION; PERFORMANCE; INNOVATION; USER AB With rapid advances in both electronic and mechanical technologies, computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) systems increasingly give users greater flexibility, quality, speed and productivity. However, the exploration and exploitation of sophisticated CIM systems necessitate organizational learning. This study empirically relates organizational learning capability to the performance of CIM firms (or plants). The results of a hierarchical regression analysis of 124 firms indicates that while learning capability plays a significant role overall, proper alignment of learning capabilities with CIM techniques will lead to better performance. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Seton Hall Univ, W Paul Stillman Sch Business, S Orange, NJ 07079 USA. RP Yin, JZ, Seton Hall Univ, W Paul Stillman Sch Business, 400 S Orange Ave, S Orange, NJ 07079 USA. EM yinjason@shu.edu CR AGNEW A, 1997, INT J PROD ECON, V52, P317 ARGYRIS C, 1999, ORG LEARNING ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 AYRES RU, 1992, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V7, P17 BALDWIN TT, 1997, ACAD MANAGEMENT EXEC, V11, P47 BOYER KK, 1999, MANAGE SCI, V45, P824 CALLAHAN J, 1992, TECHNOVATION, V12, P433 COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 COOK TD, 1979, QUASIEXPERIMENTATION CROSSAN MM, 1999, ACAD MANAGE REV, V24, P522 DILLMAN D, 1978, MAIL TELEPHONE SURVE DODGSON M, 1991, BRIT J MANAGE, V2, P133 DUIMERING PR, 1993, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V34, P47 DUTTON J, 1985, RES TECHNOLOGICAL IN, V2, P187 FIOL CM, 1985, ACAD MANAGE REV, V10, P803 FUJIMOTO T, 1999, EVOLUTION MANUFACTUR HAYES RH, 1988, DYNAMIC MANUFACTURIN JAMES LR, 1984, J APPL PSYCHOL, V69, P85 LEONARDBARTON D, 1992, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V34, P23 LEONARDBARTON D, 1993, ACAD MANAGE J, V36, P1125 LEVINE H, 1995, AMYLOID, V2, P1 MARCH JG, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P71 PARTHASARTHY R, 1996, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V13, P83 ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC SCHMIDT FL, 1989, J APPL PSYCHOL, V36, P55 SENGE PM, 1992, EUR J OPER RES, V59, P137 SLAUGHTER S, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P81 YIN JZS, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P17 NR 28 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 1 BP 53 EP 70 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 507HW UT ISI:000173021900003 ER PT J AU Tseng, FM Yu, HC Tzeng, GH TI Combining neural network model with seasonal time series ARIMA model SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE ARIMA; back propagation; machinery industry; neural network; SARIMA; SARIMABP; time series ID FORECASTING COMPETITION; ACCURACY AB This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model, which combines the seasonal time series ARIMA (SARIMA) and the neural network back propagation (BP) models, known as SARIMABP. This model was used to forecast two seasonal time series data of total production value for Taiwan machinery industry and the soft drink time series. The forecasting performance was compared among four models, i.e., the SARIMABP and SARIMA models and the two neural network models with differenced and deseasonalized data, respectively. Among these methods, the mean square error (MSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the SARIMABP model were the lowest. The SARIMABP model was also able to forecast certain significant turning points of the test time series. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Hsuan Chuang Univ, Dept Finance, Hsinchu, Taiwan. Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Management, Inst Management Technol, Hsinchu, Taiwan. Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Management, Inst Management Technol, Energy & Environm Res Grp, Hsinchu, Taiwan. Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Management, Inst Traff & Transportat, Hsinchu, Taiwan. RP Tseng, FM, Hsuan Chuang Univ, Dept Finance, Hsinchu, Taiwan. CR ANSUJ AP, 1996, COMPUT IND ENG, V31, P421 AZOFF EM, 1994, NEURAL NETWORK TIME BOX GP, 1976, TIME SERIES ANAL FOR CAIRE D, 1992, INT C NEURAL NETWORK, V2, P540 CHIANG WC, 1996, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V24, P205 CHIN K, 1996, J BUS FORECAST, V14, P17 CUMBY RE, 1987, J FINANC ECON, V19, P169 DORFMAN JH, 1990, AM J AGR ECON, V72, P804 HANSEN JV, 1997, IEEE T NEURAL NETWOR, V8, P863 HILL T, 1996, MANAGE SCI, V42, P1082 HUANG CS, 1996, J INF MANAGE, V3, P63 KOHZADI N, 1996, NEUROCOMPUTING, V10, P169 LIU MC, 1995, QUAL RELIAB ENG INT, V11, P107 MAIER HR, 1996, NEURAL NETW WORLD, V6, P747 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1982, J FORECASTING, V1, P111 MONTGOMERY DC, 1990, FORECAST TIME SER AN, V364 SHARDA R, 1990, INT JOINT C NEURAL N, V2, P491 SU CT, 1997, J CHIN I IND ENG, V14, P419 VOORT VD, 1996, TRANSP RES CIRC EMER, V4, P307 WANG JH, 1996, IEEE INT C NEURAL NE, V4, P2160 WHEELWRIGHT SC, 1985, FORECASTING METHODS YOKUM JT, 1995, INT J FORECASTING, V11, P591 NR 22 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 1 BP 71 EP 87 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 507HW UT ISI:000173021900004 ER PT J AU Pramongkit, P Shawyun, T Sirinaovakul, B TI Productivity growth and learning potentials of Thai industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE productivity growth; learning potentials; Thai industry ID CURVE AB Enhancing technical potentials in enterprises has become an important issue in various dimensions found in the literature. The learning-by-doing alone will not keep technology dependency firms competitive in the global economy. This article presents a new framework of linkages for technology concentration industries classified under the ISIC category (light and heavy industry) and learning potentials of Thai industry under a platform of technology acquisition. A measure of productivity growth is to see the impetus for technology transfer whereas the learning curve estimation technique is a tool to measure the learning potentials of Thai industry. This is a try to measure the competence progression emerged from technical productivity and the collective learning across boundaries of Thai industry. This aims at exploring a relationship between technical productivity and learning potentials of Thai industry. The article also presents clusters of industries with good learning potentials, and learning effect that implies the marginal return to resources allocated for productivity improvement of which it varies across industries. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Assumpt Univ, Sch Comp & Engn Management, Bangkok 10240, Thailand. Assumpt Univ, Grad Sch Business, Bangkok 10240, Thailand. RP Pramongkit, P, Assumpt Univ, Sch Comp & Engn Management, Bangkok 10240, Thailand. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2002 VL 69 IS 1 BP 89 EP 101 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 507HW UT ISI:000173021900005 ER PT J AU Tonn, BE TI Institutional designs for long-term stewardship of nuclear and hazardous waste sites SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE long-term stewardship; nuclear waste sites; innovative institutional designs AB Within the borders of the United States reside numerous nuclear and hazardous waste sites that will pose risks to humans and ecosystems for many centuries, and in some cases several millennia. This article evaluates several designs for an institution to act as the steward for these sites. To offer lessons learned about the characteristics of long-lasting human institutions, several that have existed for hundreds and thousands of years are reviewed, including the Dominican monastic order, the Sangha community of Buddhist monks, and universities such as those located in Oxford and Paris. Six alternative institutional designs are evaluated over a set of four evaluation criteria. It is recommended that the United States establish a new type of secular nonprofit institution, entitled The Stewardship Institution, to act as steward for the sites. This option is judged most able to focus on the mission of stewardship, meet its technical challenges, survive inevitable periods of political and economic instabilities, and meet current generation cost and implementation concerns. Other institutions considered include a consolidated national stewardship organization, a religious organization, and a new state of the union called the Legacy State. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Tennessee, Sch Planning, Hoskins Lib, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. RP Tonn, BE, Univ Tennessee, Sch Planning, Hoskins Lib, 1401 Cumberland Ave,Suite 108, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. CR 1997, ECONOMIST 0510, P59 *SSAB, 1999, SSAB NAT C STEW WHAT, P4 *STEW WORK GROUP, 1999, STAK REP STEW OAK RI, V2 *US DEP EN, 1995, CLOS CIRCL SPLITT AT *US DEP EN, 1999, CLEAN UP STEW BENFORD G, 1999, DEEP TIME HUMANITY C DEGEUS A, 1997, LIVING CO HABITS SUR HORA SC, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P155 KESSLER D, 1996, FALASHAS SHORT HIST LESTER R, 1993, RELIG TRADITIONS WOR, P847 LOMBERG J, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P171 MACLEAN D, 1981, INTRO CONFLICTING VI, P3 PUTMAN R, 1995, J DEMOCR, V6, P65 SCHRADERFRECHET.K, 1991, ENVIRON ETHICS, V13, P327 SENGE P, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE ART PRA TASSEL J, 2000, HARVARD MAG, V102, P42 TONN B, 1987, ENVIRON PLANN A, V20, P1507 TONN B, 1993, REMEDIATION, V3, P157 TONN BE, 1995, FUTURES, V27, P11 NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2001 VL 68 IS 3 BP 255 EP 273 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 498UT UT ISI:000172529400002 ER PT J AU Illegems, V Verbeke, A S'Jegers, R TI The organizational context of teleworking implementation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE teleworking implementation; organizational context; empirical study ID PREFERENCE; CHOICE; MODELS AB The large-scale implementation of teleworking has not yet occurred in the industrialized world. This fact is in contrast to earlier predictions that viewed teleworking as the main organizational form of the electronic age that would largely eliminate work-related commuting.. The slow adoption of the teleworking practice calls for a careful analysis of all elements that may influence the implementation of teleworking. The present article reports the empirical findings of a survey conducted among firms in Brussels, the Belgian and EU capital. The article's main objective is to identify the drivers and constraints relevant to the implementation of teleworking in the Brussels business environment. Furthermore, some insights are provided into the perceived social and economic advantages and disadvantages of teleworking implementation. Finally, the potential effectiveness of various policy tools to promote teleworking is assessed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Free Univ Brussels, Ctr Business Econ & Strat Management, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium. RP Illegems, V, Free Univ Brussels, Ctr Business Econ & Strat Management, Pleinlaan 2, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium. CR *EUR COMM, 1998, STAT REP EUR TEL, P168 *NUTEK, 1997, 4 EUR ASS TEL NEW WA, P223 BAGLEY MN, 1997, TRANSPORTATION, V24, P203 BERGER EG, 1998, TRENDS CELL BIOL, V8, P1 BERNARDINO A, 1993, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1413, P22 BUSH WR, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P235 EGELHOFF W, 1991, J INT BUS STUD, V3, P341 GILLESPIE A, 1995, REV TELEWORK BRITAIN, P186 GRAY M, 1994, TELEWORKING EXPLAINE, P289 HUWS U, 1993, RES SERIES, V18, P61 HUWS U, 1993, TELEWORK ELUSIVE OFF, P276 JACKSON P, 1999, TELEWORKING INT PERS, P1 KUGELMASS J, 1995, TELECOMMUTING MANAGE, P232 LIMBURG L, 1998, P 3 INT WORKSH TEL 1, P93 MAHMASSANI HS, 1993, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1413, P31 MANNERING JS, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P49 MINTZBERG H, 1981, HARVARD BUS REV, P103 MOKHTARIAN P, 1996, ENVIRON PLANN A, V26, P1859 MOKHTARIAN P, 1996, ENVIRON PLANN A, V26, P1877 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V26, P749 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1997, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V31, P35 MOON C, 1998, P 3 INT WORKSH TEL 1, P257 NILLES J, 1998, MANAGING TELEWORK ST, P330 OLSON MH, 1982, MANAGEMENT INFOR DEC, P71 STANEK DM, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V57, P53 TOFFLER A, 1980, 3 WAVE, P543 WATAD MM, 2000, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V41, P85 NR 27 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2001 VL 68 IS 3 BP 275 EP 291 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 498UT UT ISI:000172529400003 ER PT J AU Goldenberg, J Efroni, S TI Using cellular automata modeling of the emergence of innovations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE innovation; market research; pioneer; new products; cellular automata ID STATISTICAL-MECHANICS; COMPLEXITY; TEMPLATES; PRODUCTS AB Introducing innovations and new products to the market is an essential activity for leading firms. Firms wishing to exploit the advantages of pioneer status strive to attain exclusivity in their discovery of a new market need. Our work introduces some insights relating to the clarification and representation of the dynamics of market awareness of an emerging need. The implications of eliciting knowledge from consumers are discussed, and the probability of competitors attaining "pioneer" status in the market is examined. A low probability of achieving the objective of an exclusive and original discovery of an emerging need via marketing research is indicated. We use Stochastic Cellular Automata to model the collective dynamics grounded in the study of local interactions between agents. Using this paradigm, we show that due to extreme volatility of discovery probabilities concentrated in a short time span, there is a high probability that at least one other competitor will discover the same need before, or concurrently with, its discovery by the firm in question, if traditional exploration is applied. Consequently, a firm is unable to ensure that its discovery of a new need is a singular, pioneering event. A model to assess the odds that the emergent need discovery is exclusive (based on parameters that can be collected during the survey itself) is proposed and evaluated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Sch Business Adm, IL-91905 Jerusalem, Israel. Weizmann Inst Sci, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. RP Goldenberg, J, Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Sch Business Adm, Mt Scopus, IL-91905 Jerusalem, Israel. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2001 VL 68 IS 3 BP 293 EP 308 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 498UT UT ISI:000172529400004 ER PT J AU Sager, B TI Scenarios on the future of biotechnology SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE biotechnology; bioethics; genetic engineering; product development; scenario planning ID COMPUTATION; ENZYMES; METALS; CELLS; LIFE; DNA AB The major areas of research and development in biotechnology are maturing at a rapid rate, and may soon converge with one another. These emerging biotechnology areas range from the development of new medicines and drugs, genetically engineered foods, biologically controlled industrial manufacturing processes, and biologically based computing devices to the creation of new industrial materials and devices based upon biological structures and the use of biotechnology in food production. Each of these research areas carries the potential for strong societal reaction. To explore the potential impact of biotechnology on society, two fundamental drivers that influence societal acceptance of biotechnology are described. First, the extent to which technological integration proceeds may strongly impact the way society uses and perceives biotechnology. Second, the degree to which the public eventually accepts biotechnologically derived products and processes as legitimate and reliable alternatives to current products may shape both market demand and public policy. Taken together, these drivers suggest four discrete alternative scenarios for the future of biotechnology. Implications of these scenarios are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Life Sci Strategy Consulting, Stanford, CA 94309 USA. RP Sager, B, Life Sci Strategy Consulting, POB 19744, Stanford, CA 94309 USA. CR *BURR CO, BIOT 99 LIF SCI MILL ADLEMAN LM, 1994, SCIENCE, V266, P1021 BLACKSTOCK WP, 1999, TRENDS BIOTECHNOL, V17, P121 BONASSAR LJ, 1998, J CELL BIOCH S, V30, P297 BORK P, 1998, J MOL BIOL, V283, P707 BRAUN E, 1998, NATURE, V391, P775 BRIGGS SP, 1998, CURR OPIN BIOTECH, V9, P233 BROCKMOLLER J, 1999, INT J CLIN PHARM TH, V37, P317 CHANG S, 1999, BIOL BULL, V196, P308 CHANG S, 1999, BIOL BULL, V196, P309 COX JC, 1999, TRENDS BIOTECHNOL, V17, P151 FUNG DC, 1995, NATURE, V375, P809 HERTZ DM, 1987, TUNING WORD MUSICO L HIMMEL ME, 1999, CURR OPIN BIOTECH, V10, P358 JAMES P, 1997, BIOCHEM BIOPH RES CO, V23, P1 JOLIOT M, 1994, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V91, P11748 MALEY CC, 1998, EVOL COMPUT, V6, P201 MANN S, 1997, CIB FDN S, V205, P269 MANN S, 1997, CIBA F SYMP, V205, P261 MARGOLIS J, 1998, NAT BIOTECHNOL, V16, P311 MARRS B, 1999, CURR OPIN MICROBIOL, V2, P241 MAZUR B, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P372 MORRISON SW, 1999, BRIDGING GAP ERNST Y OLIVER JS, 1997, J MOL EVOL, V45, P161 PARSONS P, 1996, NATURE, V383, P221 RANU HS, 1998, J BIOMATER APPL, V13, P100 RATHJEN PD, 1998, REPROD FERT DEVELOP, V10, P31 SCHMIDTDANNERT C, 1999, TRENDS BIOTECHNOL, V17, P135 SHENFIELD GM, 1998, BRIT J CLIN PHARMACO, V46, P93 SKANDALIS A, 1997, CHEM BIOL, V4, P889 STEMMER WPC, 1994, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V91, P10747 STEPHEN JR, 1999, CURR OPIN BIOTECH, V10, P230 STEVENSON DJ, 1999, NATURE, V400, P32 TROUNSON A, 1998, REPROD FERT DEVELOP, V10, P121 TVARUSKO W, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P7950 WHITE C, 1998, NAT BIOTECHNOL, V16, P572 NR 36 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2001 VL 68 IS 2 BP 109 EP 129 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 485LF UT ISI:000171755300001 ER PT J AU Blind, K Cuhls, K Grupp, H TI Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology: A factor analysis approach SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE Delphi method; factor analysis; science; technology AB In 1996, the second German Delphi study ("Delphi '98") was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in 12 thematic fields in the next 30 years. To arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitudes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological, and political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to a very solid database, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D experts. On some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as the database for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. This paper examines the crucial question of whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert types can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Fraunhofer ISI, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. Karlsruhe Tech Univ, Fac Econ, Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Grupp, H, Fraunhofer ISI, Breslauer Str 48, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. CR *BMBF, 1996, DELPH BER 1995 ENTW *BMFT, 1993, DTSCH DELPH BER ENTW *BUND WISS VERK, 1998, DELPH REP AUSTR, V1 BLIND K, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P15 CATELL RB, 1978, SCI USE FACTOR ANAL CHILD D, 1975, ESSENTIALS FACTOR AN CORBIN SS, 1995, EDUC PSYCHOL MEAS, V55, P258 CUHLS K, 1994, OUTLOOK JAPANESE GER CUHLS K, 1998, STUDIE GLOBALEN ENTW HADER M, 1999, 37 ZUMA NACHR HARMAN HH, 1967, MODERN FACTOR ANAL HAYDUK LA, 1995, POLIT PSYCHOL, V16, P479 KAISER HF, 1974, PSYCHOMETRIKA, V39, P31 KECSKES R, 1993, KOLNER Z SOZIOL SOZ, V45, P270 KLEIN H, 1998, INT J FORECASTING, V14, P301 MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA NORUSIS MJ, 1993, SPSSR WINDOWSTM PROF PICKEL G, 1995, KOLNER Z SOZ SOZPSYC, V47, P517 ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V39, P238 THORNDIKE RM, 1978, CORRELATIONAL PROCED TUCKER LR, 1971, PSYCHOMETRIKA, V36, P427 WIKMAN M, 1992, AM J OBSTET GYNECOL, V166, P121 NR 22 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2001 VL 68 IS 2 BP 131 EP 149 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 485LF UT ISI:000171755300002 ER PT J AU Mulder, P De Groot, HLF Hofkes, MW TI Economic growth and technological change: A comparison of insights from a neo-classical and an evolutionary perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE evolutionary growth theory; neo-classical growth theory; technological change ID LONG-RUN GROWTH; INCREASING RETURNS; TECHNICAL CHANGE; INNOVATION; MODEL; DETERMINANTS AB Over the last two decades, dissatisfaction with the traditional Solow-Swan model of economic growth resulted in two new classes of models of economic growth and technological change: neo-classical endogenous growth models, and evolutionary growth models. The first class of models has been labeled endogenous, because of its key feature of endogenizing technological change. The second class of models endogenizes technological change as well, but according to an evolutionary view on economic growth and technological change. In this paper we discuss the insights from both the neo-classical and the evolutionary perspectives. It is argued that in evolutionary models technological and behavioral diversity, uncertainty, path dependency, and irreversibility are elaborated in a more sophisticated and explicit way than in neo-classical growth models. However, this level of microeconomic diversity comes at a certain price. Due to the complexity ofthe models, which preclude analytical tractability, the mechanisms behind the aggregate dynamics are not always clearly exposed. In addition, it will be argued that the neo-classical and the evolutionary approach are converging in the Schumpeterian framework. The latter framework is developed in both classes of models as a means for theorizing on technological change. A challenging task for further research is to combine the fruitful insights of both the neo-classical and the evolutionary approach to improve our understanding of complex processes of technological change in relation to other micro- and macroeconomic processes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Free Univ Amsterdam, Dept Econ, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Free Univ Amsterdam, Tinbergen Inst, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Mulder, P, Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, IVM, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2001 VL 68 IS 2 BP 151 EP 171 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 485LF UT ISI:000171755300003 ER PT J AU Murphy, JT TI Making the energy transition in rural East Africa: Is leapfrogging an alternative? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE rural energy; technological change; energy policy; Africa; renewable energy technologies (RETs) ID GENDER; ISSUES; MANAGEMENT; TANZANIA; PROPERTY; POLICY; POWER AB There is renewed optimism about the potential for leapfrogging in the rural energy sector of East Africa. By adopting highly efficient and renewable technologies many believe the region can rapidly bypass the conventional path of energy development and skip directly into the use of more efficient and environmentally friendly technologies. This study explores the potential for energy leapfrogging by examining three technological approaches targeted at rural households in East Africa: conventional grid expansion, renewable energy technologies supplying electricity, and improved cookstoves. The study identifies economic, social, political, and cultural factors limiting the ability of rural people to rapidly switch into using and/or supplying these technologies. The potential for leapfrogging may be overstated by planners and experts who focus on the technical and economic viability of the technologies while insufficiently considering the social conditions and economic realities of daily life in the region. Moreover, energy leapfrogging itself is considered a misconception. Energy transitions in rural areas are incremental processes-not leaps-dependent upon household and regional accumulations of technological capabilities. These capabilities have technical, organizational, and institutional components and are manifest in individuals' capacity to adapt to new technologies, their ability to take economic risks, and in their desire to modify their behavior. In designing technology dissemination or energy supply projects, planners must thoroughly account for the capabilities existing in rural areas. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Salem State Coll, Dept Geog, Salem, MA 01970 USA. RP Murphy, JT, Salem State Coll, Dept Geog, 352 Lafayette, Salem, MA 01970 USA. CR *GEF, 1999, PROJ BRIEF SOL DEV C *GTZ, 1994, MICR MACR BEN HOUS E *GTZ, 1999, GTZ PARTN COUNTR KEN *MIN FOR AFF GOV D, 1999, TANZ STRAT DAN TANZ *MIN FOR AFF GOV D, 1999, UG STRAT DAN UG DEV *NORAD, 1999, TANZANIA *NORAD, 1999, UGANDA *OECD, 1998, AID ACT AFR 1997 199 *SIDA, 1999, POW VI PROGR *UNDP, 1999, PROJ WRIT KEN GLOB E *UNDP, 1999, PROJ WRIT TANZ GLOB *UNDP, 1999, PROJ WRIT UG GLOB EN *UNEP, 1991, GREEN EN BIOM FUELS *WHO, 1991, IND AIR POLL BIOM FU *WORLD BANK, 1996, ESMAP *WORLD BANK, 1996, RUR EN DEV IMPR EN S *WORLD BANK, 1999, 1996 LOAN CRED SUMM *WORLD BANK, 1999, 1998 LOAN CRED SUMM *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 K ACKER RH, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P81 AGARWAL B, 1986, COLD HEARTHS BARREN BARROW CJ, 1991, LAND DEGRADATION DEV BRADLEY PN, 1991, WOODFUEL WOMEN WOODL, V1 DAVIDSON PJT, 1993, UROL RES, V21, P1 DAVIS M, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P201 DOSI G, 1984, TECHNICAL CHANGE IND FABAYO JA, 1996, TECHNOVATION, V16, P357 FRANSMAN M, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABI GERSCHENKRON A, 1962, EC BACKWARDNESS HIST GOLDEMBERG J, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P729 HANKINS M, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P1061 HOBDAY M, 1994, J DEV STUD, V30, P831 HOSIER R, 1985, ENERGY ENV DEV AFRIC, V7 HOSIER R, 1992, ENVIRON PLANN A, V24, P1231 HYMA B, 1993, DIFFERENT PLACES DIF KAMMEN D, 1995, ENERGY INSTRUMENT SO KAMMEN D, 1995, SCI AM JUL KAREKEZI S, 1993, SOL WORLD C BUD HUNG KAREKEZI S, 1997, RENEWABLE ENERGY TEC LALL S, 1995, FLEXIBLE EC CAUSES C LEACH G, 1988, WOODFUEL CRISIS PEOP LENSSEN N, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P769 MALECKI EJ, 1997, TECHNOLOGY EC DEV DY MWANDOSYA MJ, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P441 NYOIKE PM, 1996, ENERGY UTILITIES I A OKEEFE P, 1984, ENERGY DEV KENYA, V1 OSEI WY, 1996, GEOFORUM, V27, P63 PARIKH JK, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P745 PLUMMER ML, 1999, NAT HIST, P56 ROCHELEAU D, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1351 SCHROEDER RA, 1997, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V87, P487 SCOTT JC, 1998, SEEING LIKE STATE CE SCOTT WR, 1995, I ORG SKUTSCH MM, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P945 SMITH KR, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P941 TURYAHIKAYO G, 1994, STOCKH ENV I AFREPRE VANDENBROEK R, 1997, ENERG POLICY, V25, P43 VANDERPLAS RJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P295 WARNER MW, 1997, DEV CHANGE, V28, P143 NR 59 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2001 VL 68 IS 2 BP 173 EP 193 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 485LF UT ISI:000171755300004 ER PT J AU Sokolov, M TI Technology's impact on society: The issue of mass-customized education SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE customized education; individual learning; standard study interface; two tier classroom; student focused organization AB The idea of mass-customization in the educational system is introduced. Customized education is an education system in which technologies and organizational skills are combined to provide for the individual's educational needs, when and where they are required. Such a procedure seems to hold the promise of bridging the conflict between the need to react rapidly to changing knowledge based skills on one hand and the relatively conservative social skills that the school has to provide. The paper discusses various aspects of modifications that are needed in the educational system to implement the transition from mass-education to mass-customized-education (MCE) for knowledge acquisition. These aspects include organization, teacher's attitudes and the concept of the two-tier classroom. The infrastructure required for MCE to become operational is described; such infrastructure is based on ideas; which drive mass customization in the production and business worlds. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Tel Aviv Univ, Fac Engn, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel. RP Sokolov, M, Tel Aviv Univ, Fac Engn, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel. CR GOLDMAN SL, 1992, 21 CENTURY MANUFACTU GOLDMAN SL, 1995, AGILE COMPETITORS VI KARTCHER AD, APICS ED SOC RESOURC PREISS K, 1996, COOPERATE COMPETE BU REIGELUTH CM, 1997, PHI DELTA KAPPN, V78, P202 NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2001 VL 68 IS 2 BP 195 EP 206 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 485LF UT ISI:000171755300005 ER PT J AU Gottschalk, P TI Descriptions of responsibility for implementation: A content analysis of strategic information systems technology planning documents SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE strategy implementation; implementation responsibility; responsible persons; content analysis AB The need for improved implementation of IS/IT strategy has been emphasized in both empirical and prescriptive research studies, and responsibility has been identified as an important predictor of implementation. This research collected strategic IS/IT plan documents in Norway. Based on content analysis of the documents, descriptions of responsibility for implementation were found in 50% of the plans. In plans with such descriptions, responsibility was primarily concerned with systems ownership as a result of large projects. Out of 55 descriptions of responsibility, 32 were concerned with users, 13 with managers, and 10 with developers. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Norwegian Sch Management, Dept Technol Management, N-1302 Sandvika, Norway. RP Gottschalk, P, Norwegian Sch Management, Dept Technol Management, Box 580, N-1302 Sandvika, Norway. CR ARGYRIS C, 1994, ACCOUNTING HORIZONS, V8, P83 BOYNTON AC, 1992, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V33, P32 EARL MJ, 1993, MIS QUART, V17, P1 GALLIERS RD, 1994, STRATEGIC INFORMATIO, P129 GOTTSCHALK P, 1999, INFORM MANAGE, V36, P77 GRIFFITH TL, 1996, MIS QUART, V20, P99 HUSSEY DE, 1996, IMPLEMENTATION CHALL, P15 KAPLAN RS, 1996, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P75 KRIPPENDORFF K, 1980, CONTENT ANAL INTRO I LEDERER AL, 1992, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V9, P25 LEDERER AL, 1996, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V5, P445 LEE AS, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P342 MARKUS ML, 1997, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V38, P55 NACCARATO JL, 1998, J ADVERTISING RE MAY, P19 PREMKUMAR G, 1994, INFORM MANAGE, V26, P327 RIFFE D, 1997, JOURNALISM MASS COMM, V74, P873 SHANKS G, 1997, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V6, P69 SWANSON DL, 1995, ACAD MANAGE REV, V20, P43 WEBER RP, 1990, BASIC CONTENT ANAL YIN RK, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG NR 20 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2001 VL 68 IS 2 BP 207 EP 221 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 485LF UT ISI:000171755300006 ER PT J AU Berry, BJL Kim, H Baker, ES TI Low-frequency waves of inflation and economic growth: Digital spectral analysis SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE business cycles; economic cycles; inflation; Kondratiev; long waves; spectral analysis ID UNITED-STATES; LONG WAVES; DRIVEN AB Modem digital spectral analysis confirms that very noisy inflation and economic growth series share similar to9- and similar to 18-year business and building cycle signals, but that inflation alone displays the additional similar to 28- and similar to 56-year rhythms of the long wave. The growth cycle that accounts for the greatest variance is one of similar to6 years, probably associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations. Discussion of these results leads to clarification of major sources of confusion in the longwave literature, and to confirmation of the hypothesis that mode-locked endogenous rhythms may have their timing controlled by an exogenous pacemaker that links inflation and growth. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Univ Texas, Sch Social Sci, Richardson, TX 75083 USA. RP Berry, BJL, Univ Texas, Sch Social Sci, Box 830688,MS GR31, Richardson, TX 75083 USA. CR BECKER GS, 1988, AM ECON REV, V78, P7 BERRY BJL, 1981, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BERRY BJL, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P111 BERRY BJL, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V46, P1 BERRY BJL, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V46, P289 BERRY BJL, 1995, PAP REG SCI, V74, P153 BERRY BJL, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P155 BERRY BJL, 1998, RHYTHMS AM POLITICS BERRY BJL, 1999, POPUL ENV, V2, P149 BERRY BJL, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P1 BERRY BJL, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P18 CAPON J, 1969, P IEEE AUG, V57, P1408 CHANGNON SA, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1819 ISARD W, 1941, Q J ECON, V1, P90 ISARD W, 1942, REV ECON STAT, V20, P149 JUGLAR C, 1862, CRISES COMMERCIALES KAY SM, 1981, P IEEE, V69, P1380 KAY SM, 1988, MODERN SPECTRAL ESTI KUZNETS S, 1930, SECULAR MOVEMENTS PR LI HB, 1998, CIRC SYST SIGNAL PR, V17, P29 MALABRE AL, 1987, OUR MEANS RECKLESS B MITCHELL BR, 1983, INT HIST STAT SAMUELSON PA, 1980, ECONOMICS, P236 SAMUELSON PA, 1980, ECONOMICS, P241 SAMUELSON PA, 1985, ECONOMICS, P192 SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES, P164 SCHUMPTER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES SLUTSKY EE, 1937, ECONOMETRICA, V5, P107 NR 28 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2001 VL 68 IS 1 BP 63 EP 73 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 472ZK UT ISI:000171014700003 ER PT J AU Modelski, G TI What causes K-waves? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE K-waves; generational waves; learning rate; social evolution AB This commentary on the Devezas-Corredine paper raises three questions: how do we think and how do we need to think about K-waves, what causes K-waves in the Devezas-Corredine model, and in what sense do social and biological factors add to a better understanding of large-scale structural changes in the world economy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. RP Modelski, G, 2510 Virginia Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. CR MODELSKI G, 1996, COEVOLUTION GLOBAL E MODELSKI G, 1996, INT STUD QUART, V40, P321 MODELSKI G, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P49 MODELSKI G, 2000, WORLD SYSTEM HIST SO, P24 VANDUIJN JJ, 1983, LONG WAVE EC LIFE NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2001 VL 68 IS 1 BP 75 EP 80 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 472ZK UT ISI:000171014700004 ER PT J AU Watanabe, C Zhu, B Miyazawa, T TI Hierarchical impacts of the length of technology waves: An analysis of technolabor homeostasis SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article DE technology waves; technolabor homeostasis; technometabolism; assimilation capacity ID ENERGY AB This work is based on the postulate that the hierarchical order of technology development can be maintained by a subtle balance between technology waves having different lengths, and that the current collapse of the "virtuous cycle" between technology development and economic grow-th can be attributed to a stall in the balance of technology waves. This paper examines the subtle technolabor relationship of Japan's electrical machinery industry, and supports such phenomena by demonstrating the hierarchical impacts of the length of technology waves. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. C1 Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Ind Engn & Management, Meguro Ku, Tokyo 1528552, Japan. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria. RP Watanabe, C, Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Ind Engn & Management, Meguro Ku, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Tokyo 1528552, Japan. CR *OECD, 1997, TECHN IND PERF *OECD, 1998, TECHN PROD JOB CREAT ABRAHAM KG, 1995, J ECON LIT, V33, P1215 DELBEKE J, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC, P1 FORRESTER JW, 1977, ECONOMIST, V125, P525 FREEMAN C, 1977, STRUCTURAL DETERMINA, P183 FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC FREEMEN C, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC GRIFFYBROWN C, 1999, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V17, P362 KOESTLER A, 1967, GHOST MACHINE MENSCH GO, 1977, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY, P60 MENSCH GO, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY MIYAZAWA T, 1999, J JPN IND MANAGE ASS, V50, P76 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS PRICE DS, 1963, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION ROSTOW WW, 1978, WORLD EC HIST PROSPE TANSLEY AG, 1935, ECOLOGY, V16, P284 TWISS BC, 1992, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC VANDUIJN JJ, 1977, ECON, V125, P544 VANDUIJN JJ, 1983, LONG WAVE EC LIFE VANDUIJN JJ, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC, P19 WATANABE C, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P481 WATANABE C, 1995, 9516 IIASA WP WATANABE C, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P127 WATANABE C, 1997, REV EVAL, V6, P67 WATANABE C, 1998, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIO, P37 WATANABE C, 1999, FRI REV, V3, P79 WATANABE C, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P719 NR 29 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2001 VL 68 IS 1 BP 81 EP 104 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 472ZK UT ISI:000171014700005 ER PT J AU Conceicao, P Gibson, DV Heitor, MV Sirilli, G TI Beyond the digital economy: A perspective on innovation for the learning society SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GROWTH; TECHNOLOGY; POPULATION; KNOWLEDGE AB In view of the current socio-economic context, in which innovation is a key driving force for the sustainable development, which challenges are facing education and research to enhance and nurture innovation and better contribute to help developing and exploiting engineering, science, and technology? This broad question has motivated the work behind the present work, which reviews the strongest themes of the Third International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), which was held in Austin, TX, in August of 1999. Under the broad designation of "creating value for the 21st century in the globalized learning economy," the Conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology policy and the management of innovation in a context much influenced by a dynamic of change and a necessary balance between the creation and diffusion of knowledge. While the idea of inclusive development developed in previous Conferences entails a process of shared prosperity across the globe following local specific conditions, it is crucial to understand both the features of knowledge-induced growth in rich countries, as well as the challenges and opportunities for late-industrialized and less developed countries. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended contributions to the Austin conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of different regional and national contexts. The aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible roles for science and technology policy in the globalized economy. While much attention has been devoted to digital technologies, a more fundamental change at the start of the new millennium is the increasing importance of knowledge for economic prosperity and the emergence of a learning society. The analysis shows that innovation should be understood as a broad social and economic activity within the framework of that society: it should transcend any specific technology, even if revolutionary, and should be tied to attitudes and behaviors oriented towards the exploitation of change by adding value. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Tecn Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal. Univ Texas, IC2 Inst, Austin, TX 78712 USA. CNR, Inst Studies Sci Res & Documentat, Rome, Italy. RP Heitor, MV, Univ Tecn Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 115 EP 142 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800001 ER PT J AU Mowery, DC TI Technological innovation in a multipolar system: Analysis and implications for US policy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GLOBALIZATION AB This paper analyzes recent data on the "globalization" of industrial R&D, emphasizing that the patterns of international R&D investments differ significantly among industries, and seem to differ among different activities within the innovation process. I distinguish among the creation of new technologies (often identified with invention), the development of these inventions into commercially attractive products, and the production and marketing of these new products. None of these activities is well measured within industrial economies, and our measures of their international dimensions are even less reliable, The available evidence on trends in each of these three activities suggests that the most significant increases in "internationalization" have taken place in the exploitation of new technologies, largely as a by-product of increased crossborder direct investment in production activities. But at least some evidence indicates that much of the technology creation activities of large firms remains concentrated in their home economies. Nevertheless, the structure of activity in technology development and exploitation resembles the pattern of trade in industrial manufactured products-increased specialization in specific technologies or innovative activities that relies on a supportive national infrastructure and innovation system, combined with declining costs of communication and crossnational investment. As a result, intrafirm and interfirm networks for the support of innovation are developing rapidly throughout the world. The growth oh these networks is one of many indicators of the development of a "multipolar" science and technology system in the world economy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Mowery, DC, Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. CR *NAT AC ENG, 1996, FOR PART US RES DEV *NAT SCI BOARD, 1996, SCI ENG IND 1996 *NAT SCI BOARD, 1998, SCI ENG IND 1998 *OECD, 1996, TECHN IND PERF *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1994, MULT US TECHN BAS *US PAT TRAD OFF, 1993, ANN REP FISC 1993 ARCHIBUGI D, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P121 CANTWELL J, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA CANTWELL J, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P155 FREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNOLOGY POLICY EC HAM RM, 1995, CALIF MANAGE REV, V37, P89 MOWERY DC, 1993, CALIF MANAGE REV, V35, P9 MOWERY DC, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P67 MOWERY DC, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P77 NELSON RR, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST OSTRY S, 1990, GOVT CORPORATIONS SH PATEL P, 1991, J INT BUS STUD, V22, P1 PATEL P, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P141 VERNON R, 1966, Q J ECON, V80, P190 NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 143 EP 157 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800002 ER PT J AU Miozzo, M Soete, L TI Internationalization of services: A technological perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNICAL CHANGE; INNOVATION; BUSINESS AB Despite the rapid pace of developments in the policy front, a major weakness of the theoretical and policy treatments of the service sector and the "trade in services" debate is their neglect of the impact of technological change on the changing nature of the service sector, the increasing internationalization of services, and the particular and dominant role played by transnational corporations in this process. This paper outlines a taxonomy of services based on their technological linkages with manufacturing and other service sectors. This taxonomy identifies a number of technology-intensive service sectors closely related to the use of information that are essential to growth. The effect of recent technological changes on the transformations in business organisation, industry structure, internationalization. and the role of transnational corporations in these technology-intensive service sectors is explored. The paper concludes with policy implications for less developed countries. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Manchester, Inst Sci & Technol, Manchester Sch Management, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. MERIT, Maastricht, Netherlands. RP Miozzo, M, Univ Manchester, Inst Sci & Technol, Manchester Sch Management, POB 88, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. CR *EC, 1995, 9597 EC *EC, 1997, GLOB LEARN EC IMPL I *EC, 1997, IND COMP BUS SERV RE *NAT AC ENG, 1988, TECHN SERV POL GROWT *OECD, 1996, EMPL GROWTH KNOWL BA *OECD, 1996, SERV STAT INT T *OECD, 1997, SERV STAT VAL ADD EM *UN, 1993, INT TRAD INS SERV IM *UN, 1993, MAN CONS SURV IND IT *UNCTC, 1989, FOR DIR INV TRANSN C AMABLE B, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P655 BANCELCHARENSOL L, 1999, SERV IND J, V19, P147 BARRAS R, 1984, INFORMATION TECHNOLO BARRAS R, 1986, APPL ECON, V18, P941 BARRAS R, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P161 BHAGWATI J, 1987, EMERGING SERVICE EC BHAGWATI JN, 1984, WORLD ECON, V7, P133 BROWN ER, 1978, INT J HLTH SERV, V8, P3 CLAIRMONTE F, 1984, TRADE DEV UNCTAD REV, V5, P215 CLARK C, 1940, CONDITIONS EC PROGR DANIELS P, 1991, CHANGING GEOGRAPHY A ELFRING T, 1988, THESIS RIJLSUNIVERSI EVANGELISTA R, 1988, EMPLOYMENT IMPACT IN FISHER AGB, 1939, ECON REC, V15, P14 FUENTES DD, 1998, INT REV APPL EC, V12, P483 GADREY J, 1998, SERV IND J, V18, P1 GALLOUJ F, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P537 GERSHUNY J, 1978, IND SOC EMERGING SEL GERSHUNY J, 1983, NEW SERVICE EC GIBBS M, 1985, J WORLD TRADE LAW, V19, P199 GIBBS M, 1989, SERVICES DEV ROLE FO LANVIN B, 1991, CHANGING GEOGRAPHY A LAWRENCE RZ, 1983, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V1, P129 MARTINELLI F, 1991, SERVICES ASIA PACIFI MILES I, 1994, HDB IND INNOVATION MILES I, 1995, UNPUB SERVICES INNOV NAYYAR D, 1990, TECHNOLOGY TRADE POL NOYELLE T, 1986, UNPUB EC WORLD MARKE NOYELLE TJ, 1991, CHANGING GEOGRAPHY A PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PETIT P, 1986, SLOW GROWTH SERVICE QUINN J, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES RADA J, 1987, EMERGING SERVICE EC RIDDLE DI, 1985, CRITICAL ISSUES SERV ROBERTS J, 1999, SERV IND J, V19, P68 ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL RUGMAN AM, 1987, WELTWIRTSCHAFTLICHES, V123, P651 SAPIR A, 1987, EMERGING SERVICE EC SAUVANT K, 1989, SERVICES DEV ROLE FO SOETE L, 1987, TECHNICAL CHANGE FUL SOETE L, 1989, 89031 MERIT TOMLINSON M, 1998, SCI TECHN SOC C MARC VAITSOS C, 1988, TRANSNATIONAL RENDER WARF B, 1995, URBAN STUD, V32, P361 NR 54 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 159 EP 185 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800003 ER PT J AU Kim, J TI Economic integration of major industrialized areas: An empirical tracking of the continued trend SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Globalization and economic integration in a regional scale is a global trend. This paper tracked an empirical aspect of this evolutionary trend by using wage data of different industrialized countries with the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data and cluster and discriminant analysis applied to time series data of wage changes. Results acquired clearly showed an evolutionary development of economic blocs, and industry level cluster results also reflected tight integration, while some industries presented their distinct patterns of development. With discriminant analysis at the aggregate level, the major determinant that affected the integration during 1985 and 1995 period was the changes in U.S. money and quasi-money supply. This paper presents that globalization has led to two aspects of consequences. On the one hand, it means that all countries, and most of all industries, are affected by either a single or a few number of macroeconomic indicator(s). At the same time, on the other hand, globalization implies that due to the existence of factor conditions [1], within-group and between-group variances do exist. In other words, each country and each industry in different groups would feature divergent performance. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Korea Inst Publ Adm, Seoul, South Korea. RP Kim, J, Suzi Ep,Juk Jun Ri 941,Byuk San Apt 302-1001, Yong In 449840, Gyung Gi Do, South Korea. CR 1988, LLOYDS SHIPPING EC *OECD, 1997, NAT INN SYST BALNCHFLOWER DG, 1996, Q J ECON, V1, P227 BRUMMER A, 1993, AIRLINE BUS SEP BULMER S, 1983, J COMMON MARKET STUD, V21 COCKS P, 1980, INT ORG WIN EMMERIJ L, 1992, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V28 FERGUSON T, 1997, UNPUB AM WAGE STRUCT FUENTES C, 1993, WORLD PRESS REV, V40 GALBRAITH JK, 1996, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V20, P433 GALBRAITH JK, 1998, J EC DEV, V23 GOEFFREEY G, 1998, FORGING INTEGRATED E GREENWOOD J, 1990, BUSINESS EC, V24 HIRSCHBERG JG, 1991, J ECONOMETRICS, V50, P131 KAHLER M, 1995, WORLD POLICY J, V12 KATZ LF, 1989, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC KEOHANE R, 1977, POWER INTERDEPENDENC KIM J, 1997, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI LEVI L, 1987, FEDERALIST, V2 MCKAY D, 1996, RUSH UNION UNDERSTAN MURPHY AB, 1995, GEOGRAPHICAL REV, V85 OLOUGHLIN J, 1996, EC GEOGRAPHY, V72 PEAK MH, 1993, MANAGEMENT REV, V82 PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG RUHLI E, 1994, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V29 WALTZ K, 1979, THEORY INT POLITICS WARD JH, 1963, J AM STAT ASS, V58 NR 27 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 187 EP 202 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800004 ER PT J AU Quadros, R Furtado, A Bernardes, R Franco, E TI Technological innovation in Brazilian industry: An assessment based on the Sao Paulo innovation survey SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article presents results of the technological innovation section of the PAEP survey, which is a large sample survey of firms in the most industrialized Brazilian federate State. The first PAEP collected data in 1997, referring to 1996, in more than 10,000 industrial firms. Innovation questions followed the OECD guidelines. The article starts with a methodological summary. It shows that the rate of innovation output in Sao Paulo-that is the share of innovative firms-revealed a considerably extensive adoption of technologically new or improved products and/or processes in the period 1994/1996. The innovative performance of Sao Paulo industrial firms is examined for distinct firm groups, taking into account firm size, the origin of capital ownership (national vs, transnational firms) and industrial sector. The article reveals that the distance between Sao Paulo industrial firms and their counterpart in industrialized countries is even more substantial in terms of R&D activities. The findings about the sources of information for innovation and their motivation for innovation reinforce the features of the pattern of innovation presented in the article, that is, there has been quits substantial innovation but little knowledge in the innovation process of the industry of Sao Paulo. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Estadual Campinas, Dept Sci & Technol Policy, DPCT, IG, BR-13081970 Campinas, SP, Brazil. RP Quadros, R, Univ Estadual Campinas, Dept Sci & Technol Policy, DPCT, IG, BR-13081970 Campinas, SP, Brazil. CR *OCDE, 1992, MAN OSL PRINC DIR PR ARCHIBUGI D, 1995, TECHNOVATION, V15, P153 BELL RM, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABI BIELSCHOWSKY R, 1998, UNPUB INVESTIMENTOS COUTINHO L, 1994, ESTUDO COMPETITIVIDA EVANGELISTA R, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P521 FRANCOIS JP, 1998, 4 PAGES STAT IND FURTADO A, 1994, 346 IPEA INZELT A, 1995, 22 STEEP SPRUESRC KATZ J, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GENERATIO LHUILLERY S, 1996, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG LICHT G, 1995, RESULTS GERMAN INNOV PATTINSON B, 1998, UNPUB OECD SEM 26 28 PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 QUADROS R, 1997, REV CEPAL, V63 QUADROS R, 1998, GRANDES GRUPOS EMPRE SANZMENENDEZ L, 1998, INTERFIRM COLLABORAT NR 17 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 203 EP 219 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800005 ER PT J AU Nijssen, EJ Van Reekum, R Hulshoff, HE TI Gathering and using information for the selection of technology partners SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MANAGEMENT; FRAMEWORK; SUCCESS AB This paper examines the nature of the search process firms go through in identifying partners for technological cooperation, and, in particular. the extent to which systematic information collection on potential partners is likely to enhance the choice of satisfactory partners. The results. based on 118 Dutch companies. suggest that only few companies have formal procedures to find technology partners. and that they tend to depend on industry contacts for information. A company's pro-activeness and experience in finding partners were found to have a positive influence on the final selection of an appropriate partner. This was also true for an extensive evaluation, when preceded by intensive search. Direct top management involvement and company size, however, were negatively correlated with successful partner selection. Finally. the results showed that companies were overall less successful in identifying potential partners in related areas of technology, but more successful in finding appropriate partners that cover unrelated technologies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Business Sch, NL-6500 HK Nijmegen, Netherlands. TNO, STB, Inst Strategy Technol & Policy, Delft, Netherlands. EIM, Small Business Res & Consultancy, Zoetermeer, Netherlands. RP Nijssen, EJ, Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Business Sch, POB 9108, NL-6500 HK Nijmegen, Netherlands. CR *COOP LYBR, 1992, STRAT SAM OR IMPL ARGYRIS C, 1978, ORG LEARNING THEORY BARANSON J, 1987, NEWSACTION FAL BELICH TJ, 1995, J BUS RES, V49, P60 BIDAULT F, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P38 BRAAKSMA RM, 1996, 9619 EIM CAPON N, 1987, J MARKETING, V51, P1 CHANDY RK, 1998, J MARKETING RES, V35, P474 CHATTERJI D, 1993, R&D MANAGE, V23, P239 COOPER RG, 1982, IND MARKET MANAG, V11, P215 DAY GS, 1988, J MARKETING, V52, P1 DIAMANTOPOULOS A, 1995, 24 EMAC C P, V1, P1553 GUPTA AK, 1996, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V13, P497 HAGEDOORN J, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P371 HAGEDOORN J, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P291 HAGEDOORN J, 1996, REV IND ORGAN, V11, P601 HART S, 1992, EUR J MARKETING, V27, P54 HART SJ, 1994, INT MARKET REV, V11, P4 JIATAO L, 1995, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V16, P333 LANCE CE, 1988, APPLIED PSYCHOL MEAS, V12, P163 LAVENGOOD T, 1987, NEWSACTION FAL LITTLE B, 1977, RES MANAGE, V20, P20 LORANGE P, 1992, STRATEGIC ALLIANCES MACCOBY M, 1997, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V40, P55 MITCHELL GR, 1992, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V35, P13 MOHR J, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P135 NIJSSEN EJ, 1999, EUR J MARKETING, V33, P142 PIERCY N, 1983, J MARKET RES SOC, V25, P103 PRINCE YM, 1995, 9512 EIM RADNOR M, 1991, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V6, P113 ROUSSEL PA, 1991, 3 GENERATION R D MAN SCHLEGELMILCH BB, 1993, PERSPECTIVES MARKETI, V3 SLOWINSKI G, 1993, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V36, P22 SOUCHON AL, 1996, J INT MARKETING, V4, P49 VANREEKUM AH, 1999, INTELLECTUAL PROPERT VOSSEN RW, 1996, R D DECISIONS FIRM S WALSH V, 1988, J MARKETING MANAGEME, V4, P21 NR 37 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 221 EP 237 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800006 ER PT J AU Veloso, F Fixson, S TI Make-buy decisions in the auto industry: New perspectives on the role of the supplier as an innovator SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID VERTICAL INTEGRATION; COSTS; INVOLVEMENT; DESIGN AB Combining recent theoretical results related to the ownership structure of the firm with the notion of modular design, this paper provides a new framework to analyze the decision of the automakers of whether to develop a new component in-house or to subcontract it to a supplier. Older frameworks associated with transaction costs or principal-agent theories have often been associated with contradictory empirical evidence on make-buy development decisions, Our perspective follows some recent insights proposed by the property rights theory of the firm, whereby a decision to pass the development of the innovation from the assemblers to the suppliers exists when the supplier product shifts from bring complementary to being independent of the assembler product. The hypothesis wt: explore is that modularization of the automobile is a strong enabler of product independence, being the key driver of increasing supplier responsibility. Our analysis is based on detailed case studies of two important innovations that were introduced in the automotive over the past decades: the Antilock Brake System (ABS) and the airbag. The paper evaluates the role of the suppliers and the assemblers in the introduction and development of the innovation, and explains how we can understand this role in light of the proposed framework. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 MIT, Technol Management & Policy Program, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Veloso, F, MIT, Technol Management & Policy Program, Room E40-242A,77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. CR 1988, WARDS AUTOMOTIVE YB *HARV BUS SCH, 1996, 9695002 HARV BUS SCH *I MECH ENG, 1985, ANT BRAK SYST ROAD V AGHION P, 1994, Q J ECON, V109, P1185 BALDWIN CY, 1997, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P84 COASE RH, 1937, ECONOMICA, V4, P386 GILBERT R, 1982, AM ECON REV, V72, P514 GRAHAM JD, 1989, AUTO SAFETY ASSESSIN GROSSMAN SJ, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P691 HALONEN M, 1997, INCOMPLETE CONTRACTS HART O, 1990, J POLIT ECON, V98, P1119 HART O, 1995, FIRMS CONTRACTS FINA HENDERSON R, 1993, RAND J ECON, V24, P248 KLEIN B, 1978, J LAW ECON, V21, P297 LAFFONT JJ, 1988, RAND J ECON, V19, P516 LIKER JK, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P59 MASCOLELL A, 1995, MICROECONOMIC THEORY MONTEVERDE K, 1982, BELL J ECON, V13, P206 REINGANUM J, 1989, HDB IND ORG, V1, CH14 REINGANUM JF, 1983, AM ECON REV, V73, P741 SALANIE B, 1998, EC CONTRACTS SAPPINGTON DEM, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P45 WALKER G, 1984, ADMIN SCI QUART, V29, P373 WALKER G, 1991, ADMIN SCI QUART, V36, P66 WASTI SN, 1997, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V14, P337 WILLIAMSON O, 1975, MARKETS HIERARCHIES WILLIAMSON O, 1985, EC I CAPITALISM NR 27 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 239 EP 257 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800007 ER PT J AU Thumm, N TI Management of intellectual property rights in European biotechnology firms SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The aim of this article is to observe a "real world picture" of how European biotechnology firms manage their inventions, and in particular, how they make use of patent protection. The intention is to compare the behavior and the requirements of the biotechnology industry with the existing legal framework in Europe, to determine industrial needs, anti to identify insufficiencies in the institutional settings. The analysis focuses besides the general competitive performance of Europe in comparison to the United States on the use of patents by firms in different European countries, the decision to keep inventions secret or to patent. the different procedural ways to apply for patent protection, as well as the importance of patenting related costs and strategic uses of patenting. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. CR 1998, DERWENT SCI PATENT I *EUR COMM, 1999, 18914 EUR *OECD, 1997, OECDGD97210 ABRAHAM D, 1998, NAT BIOTECHNOL, V16, P203 BALLANTINE B, 1997, BENCHMARKING COMPETI, P47 GRUPP P, 1999, PATENTS CHEM PHARM B HELLER MA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P698 POYNDER R, 1999, HIDDEN VALUE INTELLE STRAUS J, 1997, 17014 EUR NR 9 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 259 EP 272 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800008 ER PT J AU Moldrup, C Morgall, JM TI Risks of future drugs: A Danish expert Delphi SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MAIL AB This study adopts the prospective perspective in an attempt to explore and define the risks of future drugs. The use of the Delphi method in this study is substantiated by its psychological, financial, and tin the case of the pharmaceutical field) relevant advantages. This study is one of the first Delphi studies to fully utilize Internet (also referred to as the worldwide web [www]) html technology to collect and process data. The two rounds of questionnaires seek both qualitative and quantitative data through Likert-scale questions with mandatory open-ended questions for argumentation. Thirty (round 1) and 22 (round 2) top-level experts drawn from all of the pharmaceutical research and development organizations in Denmark participated. This study concludes that risks of future drugs expand and develop beyond our existing assessment and perception mechanisms. They have the ability to transform side effects from the traditional individual physical level to a societal level with economic, political, and ethical consequences. The study identifies several serious bottlenecks in drug discovery and development in the future: paradigm conflicts and, more important, the assessment of risks associated with future drugs need new and alternative methods and assessment procedures. This is essential in order to capture and cope with the unseen and new side effects that the emergence of the "informational paradigm" within the held of drugs will undoubtedly bring about. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Royal Danish Sch Pharm, Dept Social Pharm, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. RP Moldrup, C, Royal Danish Sch Pharm, Dept Social Pharm, Univ Pk 2, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 273 EP 289 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800009 ER PT J AU Tseng, FM Yu, HC Tzeng, GH TI Applied hybrid grey model to forecast - Seasonal time series SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The grey forecasting model has been successfully applied to finance, physical control, engineering, economics, etc. However, no seasonal time series forecast has been tested. The authors of this paper proved that GM(1,1) grey forecasting model is insufficient for forecasting time series with seasonality. This paper proposes a hybrid method that combines the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model and the ratio-to-moving-average deseasonalization method to forecast time series with seasonality characteristics. Three criteria, i.e., the mean squares error (MSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the performance of the hybrid model against other four models, i.e., the seasonal time series ARIMA model (SARIMA), the neural network back-propagation model combined with grey relation, the GM(1,1) grey model with raw data, the GM(1,N) grey model combined with grey relation. The time series data of the total production value of Taiwan's machinery industry (January 1994 to December 1997) and the sales volume of soft drink reported from Montgomery's book were used as test data sets. Except for the out-of-sample error of the Taiwan machinery production value time series, the MSE, the MAE, and the MAPE of the hybrid model were the lowest. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Management, Inst Management Technol, Energy & Environm Res Grp, Hsinchu, Taiwan. Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Coll Management, Inst Traff & Transportat, Hsinchu, Taiwan. RP Tseng, FM, 12,Lane 10,Ming Yeo 2nd St, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2001 VL 67 IS 2-3 BP 291 EP 302 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 446YB UT ISI:000169540800010 ER PT J AU Coates, V Farooque, M Klavans, R Lapid, K Linstone, HA Pistorius, C Porter, AL TI On the future of technological forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES AB Technological forecasting is now poised to respond to the emerging needs of private and public sector organizations in the highly competitive global environment. The history of the subject and its Variant forms, including impact assessment, national foresight studies, roadmapping, and competitive technological intelligence, shows how it has responded to changing institutional motivations. Renewed focus on innovation, attention to science-based opportunities, and broad social and political factors will bring renewed attention to technological forecasting in industry, government, and academia. Promising new tools are anticipated, borrowing variously from fields such as political science, computer science, scientometrics. innovation management, and complexity science, (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Inst Technol Assessment, Washington, DC USA. George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. CRP, Philadelphia, PA USA. Softblock, Beer Sheva, Israel. Portland State Univ, Portland, OR 97207 USA. Univ Pretoria, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. Georgia Inst Technol, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Coates, V, Inst Technol Assessment, Washington, DC USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2001 VL 67 IS 1 BP 1 EP 17 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 429GM UT ISI:000168507800001 ER PT J AU Rostow, WW TI Population in the twenty-first century: The limited horizon of public policy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The changing trends in global population in the 21st century are examined. The fall of the fertility rate and resulting actual decline of population will be evident in the major Western countries and Japan by 2005-2015, spreading to others thereafter. Difficult economic and noneconomic problems, for example, aging populations, must be confronted. A 2.1 replacement fertility rate is the key. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. CR 1912, EC J, V22, P628 1937, EUGENICS REV, V29, P18 1939, AM EC REV 1, V29, P1 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES, V2, P1011 1995, WALL STREET J 0911, P1 1995, WORLD 2020, P101 1996, NY TIMES 0922, P1 *WORLD BANK, 1945, AV OLD AG CRIS BEAN FD, 1997, MIGRATION MIGRATION BEAN FD, 1997, MIGRATION MIGRATION, P120 BECK B, 1996, ECONOMIST 0127, P3 BECK B, 1996, ECONOMIST 0127, P9 DELSEN L, 1996, GRADUAL RETIREMENT O JEVONS WS, 1866, COAL QUESTION, R7 KOTLIKOFF LJ, 1983, PENSIONS AM EC, P16 MACMANUS SA, 1996, YOUNG OLD ROSTOW WW, 1990, THEORIES EC GROWTH D, P321 ROSTOW WW, 1990, THEORIES EC GROWTH D, P82 ROSTOW WW, 1998, GREAT POPULATION SPI, P117 YUE P, 1999, UNPUB BRIEF DYNAMICS, P5 NR 20 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2001 VL 67 IS 1 BP 19 EP 34 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 429GM UT ISI:000168507800002 ER PT J AU Tonn, BE Peretz, JH TI Method for gauging limits to foresight in environmental decision making SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB article presents a mathematically-based method for gauging the limits to foresight in environmental decision making. The method will be useful to environmental decision makers for structuring environmental problems that are characterized by potentially crippling amount of uncertainty. The method produces as output a measure of determinateness (i.e., the amount of information) for each key decision variable based on inputs of lower and upper cumulative distribution functions for each variable for periods into the future. A visualization of the outputs is presented that effectively communicates the limits to foresight for key variables in the analysis. How this information can be used to guide decision strategy is illustrated through an example: strategic planning for municipal solid waste reading. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. Univ Tennessee, Sch Planning, Knoxville, TN USA. Univ Tennessee, Energy Environm & Resources Ctr, Knoxville, TN USA. RP Tonn, BE, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, POB 2008,Bldg 4500N,MS-6207, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. CR *FRANKL ASS, 1998, EPA530R98007 ALLSTEN T, 1980, ENCODING SUBJECTIVE DALE VH, 1998, TOOLS AID ENV DECISI DEFINETTI B, 1964, STUDIES SUBJECTIVE P, P93 DEMPSTER AP, 1967, ANN MATH STAT, V38, P325 DIXIT A, 1994, INVESTMENT UNCERTAIN FISHBURN P, 1988, NONLINEAR PREFERENCE GUPTA UG, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P185 JAYNES ET, 1957, PHYS REV, V106, P620 JAYNES ET, 1957, PHYS REV, V108, P171 KUHN KM, 1996, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V68, P301 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE RAMSEY R, 1931, FDN MATH, P156 SAVAGE L, 1964, STUDIES SUBJECTIVE P, P173 SCHMEIDLER D, 1986, P AM MATH SOC, V97, P255 SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW SHAFER G, 1976, MATH THEORY EVIDENCE SHANNON CE, 1948, BELL SYST TECH J, V27, P379 SHANNON CE, 1948, BELL SYST TECH J, V27, P623 SLAUGHTER R, 1995, FORESIGHT PRINCIPLE TONN B, 1995, ORNLCON399 TONN B, 1996, J ASS ENERGY SERVICE, V2, P87 TONN B, 1997, INSIDE EPA RISK SUM, P34 TONN B, 1998, FUTURES RES Q, V14, P47 TONN B, 1999, ENV PRACTICE, V1, P25 WAGNER C, 1994, IMPRECISE PROBABILIT WALLEY P, 1991, STAT REASONING IMPRE NR 27 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2001 VL 67 IS 1 BP 35 EP 53 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 429GM UT ISI:000168507800003 ER PT J AU Guerin, TF TI Transferring environmental technologies to China: Recent developments and constraints SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A discussion is presented on the key issues in the transfer of environmental technologies to Chins and mole broadly South East (SE) Asia. It identities constraints to this technology transfer, and in particular, the paper deals with the mechanisms involved including research and technology development and the major (but poorly documented) role of the private sector. The principle constraints to this technology transfer relate to an understanding of the legal context, limited financing, lax enforcement of intellectual property laws by the Chinese government, and a lack of appreciation of inter-cultural issues by the transferring organization. The purpose of the paper is to provide guidance to environmental technology vendors, and other organizations? primarily from Australia, that intend to engage in technology transfer activities with China. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Guerin, TF, 190 Grabben Gullen Rd, Crookwell, NSW 2583, Australia. CR GREENING AUSTR 1997, ENV IND REV 1999, DOING ENV BUSINESS C, P30 *AIB, ASS INT BUS INT DISC *EMIAA CRC POLL CO, 1998, ENV IND REV *ERM, ENV HLTH SAF REV BARTLETT CA, 1998, MANAGING BORDERS, P389 BINGHAM A, 1993, POLLUTION PREVEN SEP, P10 COHEN PS, 1997, TECHNOLOGY LEADERS, P193 CRANE AR, 1991, CHEM ENG AUSTR, V16, P18 GILCHRIST P, 1994, J AUSTR WATER WASTEW, V21, P17 GUERIN LJ, 1994, AUST J EXP AGR ANIM, V34, P549 GUERIN TF, 1998, ASIA PACIFIC EC REV, V6, P20 GUERIN TF, 1998, J EXTENSION SYSTEMS, V14, P68 HOFSTEDE G, 1980, CULTURES CONSEQUENCE IRWIN H, 1996, COMMUNICATING ASIA U, P185 LASSERRE P, 1995, STRATEGIES ASIA PACI MAXWELL R, 1993, POLLUTION PREVEN SEP, P23 MORRISON T, 1996, KISS BOW SHAKE HANDS NAISBITT J, 1997, MEGATRENDS ASIA, P312 REDANN P, 1990, GREENING ASIA BUSINE, P37 RUBEN BD, 1977, GROUP ORGAN STUD, V2, P470 SAM PA, 1999, INT ENV CONSULTING P, P300 SCARBOROUGH J, 1998, BUSINESS HORIZON NOV, P15 SENGE PM, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE, P423 SHAW B, 1997, EMIAA NEWS, V6, P19 SWINTON EA, 1994, J AUSTR WATER WASTEW, V21, P14 TACKABERRY P, 1998, J ASIAN BUSINESS, V14, P1 TREMAYNE B, 1998, CHINA Q, V156, P1016 TROMPENAARS F, 1996, RIDING WAVES CULTURE, P274 TSANG E, 1999, J GEN MANAGE, V24, P15 TSE E, 1998, STRATEGY BUSINESS, P13 NR 32 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2001 VL 67 IS 1 BP 55 EP 75 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 429GM UT ISI:000168507800004 ER PT J AU Kovoor-Misra, S Clair, JA Bettenhausen, KL TI Clarifying the attributes of organizational crises SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SENSEMAKING; MANAGEMENT; DISASTER; DECLINE; RISK AB A clear understanding of the attributes of a crisis is crucial for its prediction, management, and control. However. crises are described by a wide array BE attributes that are often contradictory and/or imprecise. In this article we describe three subsets of crises: technological disasters. crises of decline, and developmental crises. We reduce imprecisions by differentiating between those attributes that describe all crises from those that are specific to a subset. We provide a rationale: as to how computing attributes co-exist. Implications for the study and management of crises are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Colorado, Coll Business & Adm, Denver, CO 80217 USA. Boston Coll, Dept Org Studies, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. RP Kovoor-Misra, S, Univ Colorado, Coll Business & Adm, POB 173364,Campus Box 165, Denver, CO 80217 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2001 VL 67 IS 1 BP 77 EP 91 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 429GM UT ISI:000168507800005 ER PT J AU Armstrong, JS Yokum, JT TI Potential diffusion of expert systems in forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FAMILIARITY AB We drew upon findings from the diffusion literature to assess the prospects for the diffusion of expert systems in forecasting. Forecasters judged potential adoption of expert systems in relation to two techniques that had been widely adopted in the past, Box-Jenkins and scenarios. They also rated each technique on seven innovation characteristics: relative advantage, compatibility, divisibility, communicability, complexity: product risks, and psychological risks. Thr respondents were classified hv four forecaster roles: researcher, educator, practitioner, and decision maker. In general, the expected probabilities of adoption for expert systems were slightly higher than for the two other techniques. Additionally, the respondents rated expert systems nearly equivalent to Box-Jenkins and scenarios on relative advantage and communicability. In relating the probabilities of adoption to the characteristic ratings, the groups perceived significant negative psychological and product risks with expert systems. However the experts, especially practitioners and decision makers. rated expert systems positive on compatibility, divisibility, and communicability, so it map be desirable to ensure that these positive traits are stressed with potential adopters, especially researchers and educators. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Angelo State Univ, Dept Management Sci, ASU Stn, San Angelo, TX 76909 USA. Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Yokum, JT, Angelo State Univ, Dept Management Sci, ASU Stn, POB 10891, San Angelo, TX 76909 USA. CR ARMSTRONG JS, 1985, LONG RUN FORECASTING BELSLEY D, 1980, REGRESSION DIAGNOSTI COLLOPY F, IN PRESS PRINCIPLES COLLOPY F, 1992, MANAGE SCI, V38, P1394 COLLOPY F, 1994, INFORM SYST RES, V5, P170 DALRYMPLE DJ, 1987, INT J FORECASTING, V3, P379 GREGORY W, IN PRESS PRINCIPLES MENTZER JT, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P27 MENTZER JT, 1995, J FORECASTING, V14, P465 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION NR 10 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2001 VL 67 IS 1 BP 93 EP 103 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 429GM UT ISI:000168507800006 ER PT J AU Glenn, JC Gordon, TJ TI The millennium project: Challenges we face at the millennium SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This issue presents the accumulative research of the past 3 years of the Millennium Project and its approximately 550 participants from 50 countries that have contributed their judgments about the future of humanity, providing an independent, interinstitutional, multinational, and interdisciplinary context for global thinking. Fifteen Global Challenges were identified that humanity faces at the millennium along with the actions to address each, and a range of views on each action. In addition, the Global Lookout Panel identified the means for reducing the time between early alerts and timely action, and explored related moral and ethical aspects of the decision process. A normative scenario to the year 2050 encompasses three themes: technological, human development, and political economic policy. A technique for user interactive exploratory scenarios is also included. The special study on environmental security provides a better understanding of this emerging issue. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 2001 VL 66 IS 2-3 BP 129 EP 312 PG 184 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 419EQ UT ISI:000167936700001 ER PT J AU Conceicao, P Gibson, DV Heitor, MV Sirilli, G TI Knowledge for inclusive development: The challenge of globally integrated learning and implications for science and technology policy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; ECONOMY; GROWTH AB As the importance of knowledge creation and diffusion is increasingly recognized as a major driver of economic growth, questions are starting to emerge on how to establish the conditions that foster the process of knowledge sharing across countries at different levels of development. Under the broad designation of "knowledge for inclusive development," these questions defined one of the strongest themes of the second International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), which was held in Lisbon, in August of 1998. While the idea of inclusive development entails a process of shared prosperity across the globe following local specific conditions, it is crucial to understand both the features of knowledge-induced growth in rich countries, as well as the challenges and opportunities for late-industrialized and less-developed countries. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended contributions to the Lisbon conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of both developed and developing countries. The aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible roles for science and technology policy in promoting inclusive development. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Inst Super Tecn, Dept Mech Engn, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal. Univ Texas, Ctr Innovat Technol & Policy Res, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Univ Texas, IC2 Inst, Austin, TX 78712 USA. CNR, Inst Studies Sci Res & Documentat, Rome, Italy. RP Heitor, MV, Inst Super Tecn, Dept Mech Engn, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2001 VL 66 IS 1 BP 1 EP 29 PG 29 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 394GB UT ISI:000166514800001 ER PT J AU Baptista, R TI Geographical clusters and innovation diffusion SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID R-AND-D; DURATION DATA; TECHNOLOGY; ADOPTION; SPILLOVERS; INDUSTRY; MARKET; INFORMATION; GOVERNMENT; DYNAMICS AB There is a considerable body of evidence to demonstrate that the diffusion of new technologies is spatially variable. If firms rely on each other to learn about new technology, the diffusion process is punctuated by cognitive externalities, allowing for an easier spread of usage and improvements. The present paper argues that externalities promoting the adoption of new technology are stronger at the regional level and depend positively on the proximity of early users. The results of the empirical work presented verify the importance of geography and inter-firm networking in the process of knowledge transfer and diffusion, suggesting new approaches to technology transfer and technology policy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Inst Nacl Transporte Ferroviario, Lisbon, Portugal. RP Baptista, R, Inst Super Tecn, Dept Engn Mecan, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal. CR ABRAHAMSON E, 1993, ACAD MANAGE REV, V18, P497 ACS ZJ, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P363 ALDERMAN N, 1988, PATTERNS INNOVATION ALDERMAN N, 1990, REG STUD, V24, P513 ANTONELLI C, 1990, REG STUD, V24, P31 AUDRETSCH DB, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P630 BAPTISTA R, 1996, 165 LOND BUS SCH CTR BAPTISTA R, 1997, 1997 ANN C ROYAL EC BAPTISTA R, 1997, RES POLICY, V27 BLOSSFELD HP, 1995, TECHNIQUES EVENT HIS BROZEN Y, 1951, AM ECON REV, V41, P239 CHRISTENSEN CM, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P233 COX DR, 1972, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V34, P187 DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN DEBRESSON C, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P363 EBADI YM, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P572 EDQUIST C, 1988, FLEXIBLE AUTOMATION FELDMAN MP, 1994, GEOGRAPHY INNOVATION FREEMAN C, 1982, EC IND INNOVATION FUDENBERG D, 1985, REV ECON STUD, V52, P383 GEROSKI PA, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE GLAESER EL, 1992, J POLIT ECON, V100, P1126 GOLD B, 1981, J IND ECON, V24, P247 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 GRILICHES Z, 1991, NATL BUREAU EC RES W, V3768 HAGERSTRAND T, 1967, INNOVATION DIFFUSION HANNAN TH, 1987, ECONOMICA, V54, P155 HECKMAN J, 1984, ECONOMETRICA, V52, P271 HECKMAN JJ, 1984, J ECONOMETRICS, V24, P63 JAFFE AB, 1986, AM ECON REV, V76, P984 JAFFE AB, 1993, Q J ECON, V108, P577 JULIEN PA, 1995, J BUS VENTURING, V10, P459 KARSHENAS M, 1993, RAND J ECON, V24, P503 KARSHENAS M, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE KIEFER NM, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P646 LEVIN SG, 1987, REV ECON STAT, V69, P12 LUNDVALL BA, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MANTEL N, 1963, J AM STAT ASSOC, V58, P690 MIDGLEY DF, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P533 MOWERY DC, 1983, POLICY SCI, V16, P27 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG QUIRMBACH HC, 1986, RAND J ECON, V17, P33 REDDY NM, 1991, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V8, P295 REES J, 1984, REG STUD, V18, P489 REINGANUM JF, 1981, BELL J ECON, V12, P618 ROSE NL, 1990, RAND J ECON, V21, P354 ROSENBERG N, 1976, ECON J, V86, P523 ROTHWELL R, 1994, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V9, P629 SAVAGE IR, 1956, ANNALS MATHEMATICAL, V27, P590 TASSEY G, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P329 TEECE D, 1976, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR THWAITES AT, 1982, REG STUD, V16, P371 TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION WEBB J, 1993, NEW TECHNOLOGIES FIR WEBBER MJ, 1972, IMPACT UNCERTAINTY L NR 58 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2001 VL 66 IS 1 BP 31 EP 46 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 394GB UT ISI:000166514800002 ER PT J AU Nielsen, AO TI Patenting, R&D and market structure: Manufacturing firms in Denmark SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article explores the link from firm size and market concentration to patenting and R&D in a sample of manufacturing firms in Denmark. The Schumpeterian notion of firm size and market concentration suggests that the combined effects by these structural determinants of industrial innovation are inducive to industrial innovation. Previous studies rely mainly on large-firm evidence, and most often evidence is based on truncated samples. In short, evidence on how structural determinants induce industrial innovation remains sparse at best. On the basis of the two-stage correction procedure suggested by Heckman [1, 2] the impact of firm size and market concentration on patenting and R&D activity is investigated on new firm-level data developed in cooperation with the Danish patent Office and the Danish Institute for Studies in Research and Research Policy. The results indicate that the Schumpeterian notion is more subtle than originally conceived. Hence. in a simple model setting both firm size and market concentration are found to induce increased patenting activity as well as increased R&D effort in manufacturing. Yet, because selection bias is likely to take place, we should not dismiss the discussion too hastily in favor of one school of thought for another. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Aarhus Sch Business, Dept Econ, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark. RP Nielsen, AO, Aarhus Sch Business, Dept Econ, Fuglesangs Alle 20, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark. CR ACS Z, 1988, INNOVATION LARGE SMA, P678 BALDWIN WL, 1987, MARKET STRUCTURE TEC BREEN R, 1996, REGRESSION MODELS CE COHEN WM, 1989, HDB IND ORG, CH18 DAVIES S, 1989, EC IND ORG DILLINGHANSEN M, EVOLUTION FIRMS IND, P180 HECKMAN JJ, 1976, ANN ECON SOC MEAS, V5, P475 NIELSEN AO, 1998, 983 AARH SCH BUS DEP SCHERER FM, 1965, AER, V55, P1096 SOETE LL, 1979, FIRM SIZE INVENTIVE, P291 VANLEUVEN JWM, 1996, AEA C EC INN PAT LUX NR 11 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2001 VL 66 IS 1 BP 47 EP 58 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 394GB UT ISI:000166514800003 ER PT J AU Fontes, M TI Biotechnology entrepreneurs and technology transfer in an intermediate economy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; INDUSTRY; COMPANIES; FIRMS AB When a substantial part of the knowledge required for the development of a new field is generated at the university, new entrepreneurial firms can be a privileged vehicle for the transfer of research results to the market. This is particularly true in the case of "intermediate economies," where these firms can bridge the gap between public research and an indifferent industry. Empirical research on the process of biotechnology firm creation in Portugal, confirmed that most biotechnology entrepreneurs are involved in the transfer/transformation of technological knowledge generated in public research organizations, playing a critical technological intermediary role. More specifically, the research identified three major knowledge transfer modes and revealed the role played in this process by a particular type of entrepreneur: highly qualified young people, who were found to be especially effective in achieving a match between scientific and technological knowledge and market needs by capitalizing on their technological competencies and "relational assets." But the research also highlighted the low incidence of firm creation in this field and the context-related difficulties experienced by their founders. This article addresses some of the obstacles and the entrepreneurs' adaptive responses to them, providing useful information for policy makers and would-be entrepreneurs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 INETI, DMS, P-1649038 Lisbon, Portugal. RP Fontes, M, INETI, DMS, Estrada Paco Lumiar 22, P-1649038 Lisbon, Portugal. CR *APCRI, 1995, RES AN 1995 ACHARYA R, 1995, THESIS U PERS MAASTR AUTIO E, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P263 CETINDAMAR D, 1998, 2 INTECH INT C LISB CHIESA V, 1998, NEW TECHNOLOGY BASED, V5, P15 DOUTRIAUX J, 1988, J BUSINESS VENTURING, V2, P285 FONTES M, 1996, INT J ENTREPRENEURIA, V2, P82 FONTES M, 1998, BABS COLL KAUFF FDN FONTES M, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P497 FONTES M, 1998, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, P124 FRANSMAN M, 1994, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIO, P41 GALHARDI R, 1994, SCI PUBL POLICY, V21, P395 JOLLY D, 1996, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V12, P830 JONESEVANS D, 1996, ENTREPRENEURSHIP REG, V9, P65 KENNEY M, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P21 KLEVORICK AK, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P185 LOWE J, 1993, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V5, P27 MALERBA F, 1996, IND CORP CHANGE, V5, P51 MUSTAR P, 1994, REV EC IND, V67, P156 OAKEY RP, 1991, TECHNOVATION, V11, P79 ORSENIGO L, 1989, EMERGENCE BIOTECHNOL PADUA M, 1999, IN PRESS INT J TECHN PASSARO R, 1996, P 41 ICSB WORLD C ST PAVITT K, 1997, SPRU ELECT WORKING P, V5 PEREZ C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P458 PICCALUGA A, 1992, CREATIVITY INNOVATIO, V1, P87 PISANO GP, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P237 RADOSEVICH R, 1995, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V10, P879 ROBERTS EB, 1991, ENTREPRENEURS HIGH T ROBERTS EB, 1996, R&D MANAGE, V26, P17 SAMSOM KJ, 1993, TECHNOVATION, V13, P63 SENKER J, 1996, TECHNOVATION, V16, P219 SHARP M, 1985, EUROPE NEW TECHNOLOG SMILOR RW, 1990, J BUS VENTURING, V5, P63 SOLLEIRO JL, 1994, HIGH TECHN SMALL FIR STANKIEWICZ R, 1994, SCI PUBL POLICY, V21, P99 VANDIERDONCK R, 1988, R&D MANAGE, V18, P341 WALSH V, 1993, SCI PUBL POLICY, V20, P138 WALSH V, 1995, TECHNOVATION, V15, P303 ZUCKER LG, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P290 NR 40 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2001 VL 66 IS 1 BP 59 EP 74 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 394GB UT ISI:000166514800004 ER PT J AU Casanueva, C TI The acquisition of firm technological capabilities in Mexico's open economy, the case of vitro SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This case study explores the evolution of Vitro technological effort as a response to the export orientation of the Mexican economy. It includes a brief analysis of Vitro's competition in the glass market, this company's technology strategy prior to the opening of market, and the evolution of this strategy as a result of opening of the markets. The study also includes the presentation of a conceptual framework, in which Vitro as a case study is analyzed, and an empirical section, aimed at assessing the evolution of Vitro's technological capabilities. This section identifies the main technologies embodied in the processes of glass manufacturing, and a comparison is made between them, before and after the liberalization of the markets. The findings and preliminary conclusions suggest that as the market opens, innovative efforts tend to be more specialized, and there is an attempt to master production engineering faster, and to make adaptations when this is required to increase exports. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Inst Tecnol & Estudios Super Monterrey, Div Adm & Ciencia Sociales, Dept Econ, Tlalpan 14380, CP, Mexico. RP Casanueva, C, Inst Tecnol & Estudios Super Monterrey, Div Adm & Ciencia Sociales, Dept Econ, Col Ejidos Hiupulco,Calle Puente 222,Mexico City, Tlalpan 14380, CP, Mexico. CR *SRI INT, 1990, TECHN COMP POS YEAR *SRI INT, 1994, KEY TERMS ID TECHN C *VITR, 1997, FIN HIGHL ANN REP *VITR, 1998, PLAN PROYECT BALASSA B, 1982, DEV STRATEGIES SEMII DAHLMAN C, 1981, ANN AM ACAD POLITICA DAHLMAN C, 1982, EC NEW TECHNOLOGY DE DAHLMAN R, 1987, WORLD DEV, V15 FORBES N, 1997, INNOVATION NICS MANA GRUNWALD J, 1995, GLOBAL FACTORY FOREI KATZ J, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GENERATIO LALL S, 1987, LEARNING IND ACQUISI LALL S, 1990, BUILDING IND COMPETI PITA A, 1998, UNPUB COMPETENCIAS M NR 14 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2001 VL 66 IS 1 BP 75 EP 85 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 394GB UT ISI:000166514800005 ER PT J AU Veloso, F Soto, JM TI Incentives, infrastructure and institutions: Perspectives on industrialization and technical change in late-developing nations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GROWTH; MODEL AB The current paper explores the role of incentives, infrastructure, and institutions in late-industrializing countries. We argue that all three dimensions are critical to understand differences in technological development and industrial trajectories across countries. because they shape government policies and firm strategies in terms of exports, subcontracting, and technology acquisition, among others. Moreover. we explain how recent insights in the theory of economic growth may be used to understand the incentive and infrastructure dimensions of development, even at a very micro level, but fall short of addressing institutions, a dimension our research has shown to be as critical. The paper analyzes these relationships through an in-depth analysis of the evolution of the auto industry in Taiwan and Mexico, characterizing the three dimensions and associated policies as well as market and technology outcomes. The key implication for research is that advancing growth theory. so that we may have a better understanding of late industrialization. requires a deeper micro research on the development patterns of these countries. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 MIT, Technol Management & Policy Program, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Veloso, F, MIT, Technol Management & Policy Program, 77 Massachusetts Ave,Room E40-242A, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. CR *BROOK GROUP, 1997, MOT VEH IND THAIL *IND DEV BUR, 1996, UNPUB POL DOC AUT IN *IND TECHN RES I, 1995, ANN REP *JICA, 1996, STUD MAST PLAN PROM *OECD, 1998, MAIN SCI TECHN IND *TAIW TRANSP VEH M, 1996, UNPUB *WORLD BANK, 1993, E AS MIR AGHION P, 1992, ECONOMETRICA, V60, P323 AGHION P, 1998, ENDOGENOUS GROWTH TH, CH1 AMSDEN A, 1996, UNPUB RISE REST LATE, CH2 AMSDEN AH, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P627 AMSDEN AH, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P469 AZARIADIS C, 1990, Q J ECON, V105, P501 BAUMOL W, AM EC REV, V76, P1072 BAUMOL W, 1994, CONVERGENCE PRODUCTI CHANDLER A, 1996, BIG BUSINESS WEALTH COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 DURAN R, 1997, JOINT RES PROGRAM SE, V120 FISHLOW A, 1991, EC LIBERALIZATION NO GEREFFI G, 1990, MANUFACTURING MIRACL GEREFFI G, 1996, NEOLIBERALISM REVISI GROSSMAN G, 1991, INNOVATION GROWTH GL, CH6 HELLEINER G, 1992, TRADE POLICY IND DEV HOWITT P, 1996, IMPLICATION KNOWLEDG KRUGMAN PR, 1987, J DEV ECON, V27, P41 LALL S, 1992, GREEK EC REV, V14, P1 LUCAS R, 1998, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MEIER G, 1996, EC DEV THEORY HIST P MORENO JC, 1996, MEXICOS AUTO IND NAF NORTH D, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR NORTH DC, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P359 PACK H, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P55 PIQUINI M, 1995, R325 EC INT UN RODRIK D, 1995, HDB DEV EC B, V3, P2925 ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P71 SALANIE B, 1998, EC CONTRACTS SHAPIRO H, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P861 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 STIGLITZ JE, 1994, IND CORP CHANGE, V3, P65 SU J, 1992, THESIS MIT CAMBRDIGE TASSEY G, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P345 VELOSO F, 1998, UNPUB COMP ASSESSMEN VENTURA J, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P57 WILLIAMSON O, 1985, EC I CAPITALISM ZYSMAN J, 1994, IND CORP CHANGE, V3, P243 NR 47 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2001 VL 66 IS 1 BP 87 EP 109 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 394GB UT ISI:000166514800006 ER PT J AU Kim, J TI Economic development and its impact on occupational grouping structure in Korea 1971-1990 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB By utilizing occupational wage data in Korea, this paper attempted to find major determinants of occupational wage performance of occupational groups with a combination of cluster and discriminant analysis. This research yielded three major determinants (annual investment, credit availability, and uncovered interest parity) which were also major determinants in a previously undertaken industrial wage analysis. With these major factors, interpretations gleaned from this research confirm research findings from previous research in economics. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Korea Inst Publ Adm, GangNam Gu, Seoul 135081, South Korea. RP Kim, J, Korea Inst Publ Adm, GangNam Gu, 701 Yeoksam Dong, Seoul 135081, South Korea. CR ALDENDERFER MS, 1984, SAGE QUANTITATIVE AP, V44 BALNCHFLOWER DG, 1996, Q J ECON, V1, P227 BOUND J, 1989, NBER WORKING PAPER, V2983 FERGUSON JKT, 1997, HARV EC HIST SEM MAR FREEMAN RB, 1978, INCOME DISTRIBUTION FREEMAN RB, 1981, 820 NBER GALBRAITH JK, 1996, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V20, P433 GALBRAITH JK, 1998, J EC DEV, V23 KATZ L, 1992, Q J EC FEB, V107, P35 KATZ LF, 1989, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC KATZ LF, 1989, J JAPANESE INT E DEC KIM J, 1909, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI KIM J, 1997, P 1 INT C TECHN POL KWACK N, 1993, SEOUL J EC, V6, P1 LEE GT, 1996, THEORY PRACTICE IND MURPHY K, 1990, WORKERS THEIR WAGES SONG H, 1990, LABOR INEQUALITY TOPEL R, 1991, NBER C INT LAB MARK TOPEL R, 1996, LABOR MARKETS EC GRO WARD JH, 1963, J AM STAT ASS, V58 NR 20 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2001 VL 66 IS 1 BP 111 EP 120 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 394GB UT ISI:000166514800007 ER PT J AU Smil, V TI Perils of long-range energy forecasting: Reflections on looking far ahead SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Critical examinations of long-range energy forecasts show a remarkable extent of individual and collective failure in predicting actual developments in five distinct areas examined in this article: major energy conversions, primary energy requirements, sectoral needs, exhaustion of energy resources, and energy substitutions. This experiences demonstrates that we should abandon detailed quantitative point forecasts in favor of the decision analysis or contingency planning under a range of alternative (exploratory as well as normative) scenarios. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Manitoba, Dept Geog, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Smil, V, Univ Manitoba, Dept Geog, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2000 VL 65 IS 3 BP 251 EP 264 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 378KB UT ISI:000165582600001 ER PT J AU Berthon, P Pitt, L Watson, RT TI Postmodernism and the Web: Meta themes and discourse SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID WORLD-WIDE-WEB; ELECTRONIC MARKETS; TECHNOLOGY; ORGANIZATIONS; CONTEXT AB How are we to make sense of the Web and our involvement in it? This is no light matter, for how we make sense of what was, and is, delimits what will be. Thus, as more and more individuals, organizations, and communities establish a presence in cyberspace, the question of how to enact the new medium presents challenges to practitioners and academics alike. How might symbolic and economic activity be conducted and conceptualized? Different assumptions about the Web will result in disparate activities-and concomitant creation of different social, economic, and technological futures. The article outlines the discourses of modernism and postmodernism, and explores the phenomenon of the Web using a series of postmodern themes-a rubric of praxes and thoughts that characterizes the information age. We conclude that postmodernism illuminates thinking in the new information medium, just as modernism illuminated thinking in traditional physical mediums. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Bath, Sch Management, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. Univ Wales Coll Cardiff, Dept Mkt, Cardiff Business Sch, Cardiff CF1 1XL, S Glam, Wales. Univ Georgia, Dept Management, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Berthon, P, Univ Bath, Sch Management, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2000 VL 65 IS 3 BP 265 EP 279 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 378KB UT ISI:000165582600002 ER PT J AU Clift, R Wright, L TI Relationships between environmental impacts and added value along the supply chain SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The ecometric approach developed by Unilever for overall business impact assessment (OBIA) is extended to show how environmental impacts and economic value build up along the supply chain of a product. Aggregated data for industrial sectors and specific data for one type of product-mobile telephones-both show the same conclusion: the primary resource industries give rise to environmental impacts disproportionate to the associated added value. This simple result has important implications for the positioning of companies in the supply chain, for the developing economies, and for the re-use and recycling of manufactured goods. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Surrey, Ctr Environm Strategy, Guildford GU2 5XH, Surrey, England. RP Clift, R, Univ Surrey, Ctr Environm Strategy, Guildford GU2 5XH, Surrey, England. CR *ECTEL, 1997, END LIF MAN CELL PHO ALTING L, 1997, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V355, P1373 AZAPAGIC A, 1998, 2 INT C TECHN POL IN AZAPAGIC A, 1999, INT J LCA, V4, P133 AZAPAGIC A, 1999, J CLEAN PROD, V7, P135 BEHMANESH N, 1993, POLLUTION PREVEN SPR, P161 BISWAS G, 1998, INT J LCA, V3, P184 BLUMBERG J, 1998, ENV PERFORMANCE SHAR BRINGEZU S, 1996, P 2 INT C EC TSUK JA, P147 CLIFT R, 1994, CLEAN TEACHNOLOGY EN CLIFT R, 1997, J CHEM TECHNOL BIOT, V68, P347 CLIFT R, 1997, J IND ECOLOGY, V1, P3 CLIFT R, 1998, NATO ADV RES WORKSH CONSOLI F, 1993, GUIDELINES LIFE CYCL GRAEDEL TE, 1995, IND ECOLOGY GUINEE JB, 1996, LCA IMPACT ASSESSMEN HAMMOND A, 1995, ENV INDICATORS SYSTE HEIJUNGS R, 1992, ENV LIFE CYCLE ASSES JACKSON T, 1998, J IND ECOLOGY, V2, P3 KEOLEIAN GA, 1993, EPA600R92226 USEPA KNOPFLACHER H, 1995, GAIA, V4, P100 LEHNI M, 1999, MEASURING ECO EFFICI LINDFORS LG, 1995, NORDIC GUIDELINES LI, P20 MCLAREN J, 1999, IN PRESS J IND ECOLO, V3 OWENS JW, 1998, INT J LCA, V3, P43 PETRIE JG, 1997, INT MIN PROC C AACH STEWART M, 1996, CLEAN TECHNOLOGY MIN TAYLOR AP, 1996, 4 LCA CAS STUD S SET, P181 THOMAS C, 1998, CREATING STANDARD CO TILLMAN AM, 1994, J CLEAN PROD, V2, P21 VAZE P, 1998, UK ENV ACCOUNTS 1998 WRIGHT L, 1999, PRODUCT ENG LIFE MAN WRIGHT M, 1997, J IND ECOLOGY, V1, P117 NR 33 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2000 VL 65 IS 3 BP 281 EP 295 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 378KB UT ISI:000165582600003 ER PT J AU Molitor, GTT TI Five economic activities likely to dominate the new millennium: III - Life sciences era SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 World Future Soc, Bethesda, MD 20814 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 2000 VL 65 IS 3 BP 297 EP 310 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 378KB UT ISI:000165582600004 ER PT J AU Norberg-Bohm, V TI Creating incentives for environmentally enhancing technological change: Lessons from 30 years of US energy technology policy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INDUSTRIAL-INNOVATION AB Due to the externalities associated with energy production and consumption, public policy is necessary to provide a stimulus for the development and diffusion of more environmentally sound energy technologies. Based on an in-depth history of technological development for four electric power technologies, this paper draws lessons for the design of future policies to promote innovation in energy technologies. The technologies examined are: wind turbines, solar photovoltaics, gas turbines, and atmospheric fluidized bed combustion. The analysis considers both supply-push and demand-pull approaches for stimulating technological change. II concludes that government activities to promote environmentally enhancing technological development must include both supply-push and demand-pull policies during the period spanning precommercialization, first commercial use, and lead adoption. Furthermore, this analysis identifies five industry sector characteristics that influence the level of government effort necessary to support commercialization: the size, strength, and risk of the private market niche; industry structure; firm financial capability: firm technological capability; and sources of innovation. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Belfer Ctr Sci & Int Affairs, Energy Technol Innovat Project, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. MIT, Environm Technol Policy Project, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. MIT, Program Environm Educ Res, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Norberg-Bohm, V, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Belfer Ctr Sci & Int Affairs, Energy Technol Innovat Project, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2000 VL 65 IS 2 BP 125 EP 148 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 373KF UT ISI:000165287700001 ER PT J AU Nakicenovic, N TI Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The objective of this article is to summarize a set of 40 emissions scenarios developed by five different modeling teams. The scenarios are based on an extensive assessment of the literature and shared assumptions about the main driving forces of future emissions. They were developed in collaboration with many groups and individuals over the last 3 years. The scenarios are rooted in four narrative "stories" about future worlds that describe alternative developments relevant for emissions and their driving forces. Each scenario is a quantitative interpretation of one of four future worlds developed by one of the five models. Together, the scenarios cover a wide range of the main driving forces of future emissions from demographic to social and economic developments. For example, the scenarios encompass different future developments that might influence greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks, such as alternative structures of energy systems and landuse changes. By design, the scenarios cover most of the GHG emissions range in the published scenario literature. The emissions scenarios encompass all relevant species of GHGs and emissions of sulfur dioxide. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Transit New Technol Project, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. RP Nakicenovic, N, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Transit New Technol Project, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2000 VL 65 IS 2 BP 149 EP 166 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 373KF UT ISI:000165287700002 ER PT J AU Schlesinger, ME Malyshev, S Rozanov, EV Yang, FL Andronova, NG De Vries, B Grubler, A Jiang, KJ Masui, T Morita, T Penner, J Pepper, W Sankovski, A Zhang, Y TI Geographical distributions of temperature change for scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ABATING CLIMATE-CHANGE; MODEL; OSCILLATION; POLICY AB Time-dependent geographical distributions of surface-air temperature change relative to year 2000 are constructed for four scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, and are compared to the IS92a scenario. The four new scenarios have been developed by four different modeling teams. The four scenarios are noninterventionist, in that they do not include abatement of GHG emissions for the purpose of climate-change mitigation. The rime evolution of the changes in global-mean surface-air temperature and sea level are calculated for each scenario by our energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-model. The temperature changes individually and jointly for the radiative forcing by the GHGs and by the sulfate aerosol, which is formed in the atmosphere from the emitted SO2. These GHG- and SO2-induced global-mean temperature changes are used to scale in time the geographical distributions of surface-air temperature simulated by our University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) atmospheric-general-circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model, respectively for a doubling of the CO2 amount and for a 10-fold increase in present-day SO2 emission-the latter from the entire earth as well as individually from Europe, Siberia, North Africa, Asia, North America. CR *EPA, 1990, POL OPT STAB GLOB CL AIM PT, 1997, ASIAN PACIFIC INTEGR ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALFSEN KH, 1999, 1 CICERO ANDRONOVA NG, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P16807 ARAKAWA A, 1966, J COMPUT PHYS, V1, P119 ARAKAWA A, 1977, METHODS COMPUTATIONA, V17, P173 BRETHERTON FP, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P173 CHLESINGER ME, 1985, DOEER0237 CHUANG CC, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V102, P3761 DEVRIES B, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P477 DEVRIES B, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P137 GRITEVSKII A, 1998, SCENARIO GENERATOR T HAMMITT JK, 1992, NATURE, V357, P315 HARVEY LD, 1997, INTRO SIMPLE CLIMATE HOFFERT MI, 1980, J GEOPHYS RES, V85, P6667 HOFFERT MI, 1998, NATURE, V395, P881 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 HULME M, 1995, SCENGEN CLIMATE CHAN JIANG KJ, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P207 JOOS F, 1996, TELLUS B, V48, P397 KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P285 KRAM T, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P335 LANGNER J, 1991, J ATMOS CHEM, V13, P225 LEMPERT RJ, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V26, P351 LEMPERT RJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P235 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P129 MATSUOKA Y, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P357 MESSNER S, 1995, WP9569 INT I APPL SY MORITA T, 1998, QUANTIFICATION IPCC MYHRE G, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2715 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P105 PENNER JE, 1994, GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC B, P223 PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSION SCENARIOS I PEPPER W, 1998, ENV SCI POLICY, V1, P289 RAMANKUTTY N, 1994, THESIS U ILLINOIS UR RIAHI K, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P175 ROZANOV EV, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P11755 SANKOVSKI A, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P263 SANTER BD, 1990, 47 M PLANCK I MET SCHIMEL D, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P65 SCHLESINGER ME, 1988, NATO ASI SER C-MATH, P653 SCHLESINGER ME, 1989, GEOPHYS MONOGR, V52, P177 SCHLESINGER ME, 1991, NATURE, V350, P219 SCHLESINGER ME, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE ENERG, P75 SCHLESINGER ME, 1992, NATURE, V360, P330 SCHLESINGER ME, 1993, RES EXPLOR, V9, P159 SCHLESINGER ME, 1994, NATURE, V367, P723 SCHLESINGER ME, 1994, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA SCHLESINGER ME, 1995, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V100, P13767 SCHLESINGER ME, 1997, GEOGRAPHICAL SCENARI SCHLESINGER ME, 1997, PAST PRESENT VARIABI, P389 TIMMER H, 1998, 983 CPB WANG WQ, 1999, J CLIMATE 2, V12, P1423 WIGLEY TML, 1991, NATURE, V349, P503 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 57 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2000 VL 65 IS 2 BP 167 EP 193 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 373KF UT ISI:000165287700003 ER PT J AU Smith, SJ Wigley, TML Nakicenovic, N Raper, SCB TI Climate implications of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Global-mean temperature and sea-level implications are calculated for four preliminary emissions scenarios presented elsewhere in this issue. Total anthropogenic temperature change in the year 2100 ranges from 1.3-4.0 degreesC using the four scenarios for upper and lower bounds on emissions and high and low values for the climate sensitivity. The lower bound is higher than that given in the IPCC Second Assessment Report, due mainly to lower future sulfur dioxide emissions. These lower emissions also have the effect of reducing uncertainties associated with sulfate aerosol forcing. Significant future climate changes occur in all scenarios, indicating that adaptation policies need to be considered as an important component of climate-change policy. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Pacific NW Natl Lab, Washington, DC 20024 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Univ E Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Smith, SJ, Pacific NW Natl Lab, 901 D St SW,Suite 900, Washington, DC 20024 USA. CR HARVEY D, 1997, 2 IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P285 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P69 MYHRE G, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2715 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P98 OSBORN TJ, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V9, P181 RAPER SCB, 1996, SEA LEVEL RISE COAST, P11 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WIGLEY TML, 1993, TELLUS B, V45, P409 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 WIGLEY TML, 1998, DO WE UNDERSTAND GLO, P185 NR 12 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2000 VL 65 IS 2 BP 195 EP 204 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 373KF UT ISI:000165287700004 ER PT J AU Guerin, TF TI Overcoming the constraints to the adoption of sustainable land management practices in Australia SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATIONS AB There are numerous reasons why landusers do not always adopt innovations. For different landuse enterprises and for different innovations, different constraints will apply and these can be organised into three broad categories. The first is characterised by the landuser and the adoption process. The second emphasises the characteristics of the innovation itself and issues associated with the developers of the innovation. The third area deals with the role of extension agents and the transfer process. It is apparent that technology transfer and adoption in sustainable landuse is largely being led by commercial organisations. Landusers are being recognised as key stakeholders in both the adoption and technology development processes. Furthermore, community groups and a range of government and NGOs are becoming involved as major stakeholders in the transfer and adoption of sustainable landuse practices. The study, however, reveals a shortage of data on the effectiveness of corporations and other commercial organisations on the technology transfer and adoption processes. Future research is needed on the following: understanding the effectiveness of group-based approaches to technology transfer and adoption; determining and predicting rates of adoption of sustainable practices; the ongoing effectiveness of different forms of media; evaluating existing efforts of technology transfer and adoption particularly related to land management practices; and understanding the constraints to adoption associated with an aging landusing population. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Guerin, TF, 190 Grabben Gullen Rd, Crookwell, NSW 2583, Australia. CR AUSTR RURAL RES PROG 1991, P C PRIM TASKS SEPT 1999, GREENING AUSTR *MONS, 1989, MONS CONS ENV *NAT FARM FED, 1999, NFF FARMW PROGR ALTHAM WJ, 1999, ECOMANAGEMENT AUDIT, V6, P61 ANDERSON AM, 1981, UNPUB FARMERS EXPECT ANDERSON AM, 1982, UNPB PROCESSES IMPLI BANGURA AM, 1983, DISSERT ABSTR, P864 BARDSLEY JB, 1982, FARMERS ASSESSMENT I BARR NF, 1992, GREENING BROWN LAND BLAIKIE P, 1997, AGR SYST, V55, P217 BUTTEL FH, 1990, SOCIOLOGY AGR, P212 CAMPBELL D, 1992, NEW STATESMAN SOC, V5, P16 CARY JW, 1989, CARING SOIL CROPPING CARY JW, 1992, PEOPLE PROTECTING TH CHAMALA S, 1987, TILLAGE NEW DIRECTIO, P400 CLUNIESROSS T, 1990, DISS ABSTR B, V5001, P1 COTTON R, 1997, AGRIINDUSTRY GREAT I, P2 DIALLO I, 1983, DISS ABSTR B, V4505, P1329 DOYLE B, 1999, 99 U NEW ENGL, P1 DROST D, 1996, BARRIERS ADOPTING SU FRANK BR, 1997, AGR SYST, V55, P347 GILLARD P, 1992, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER GILLARD P, 1999, EXTPERT SYSTEMS USED GROVE J, 1999, FARMERS INTERNET GUERIN LJ, 1994, AUST J EXP AGR ANIM, V34, P549 GUERIN LJ, 1995, MONITORING VERIFICAT, P175 GUERIN TF, 1991, AGR SCI, V4, P44 GUERIN TF, 1991, AUSTR COTTON GROWER, V12, P12 GUERIN TF, 1999, REMEDIATION, V9, P51 HAWKINS HS, 1992, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER HAYMAN G, 1997, TOOLS INVESTIGATE PL ITHARAT C, 1980, DISS ABSTR A, P507 JEDLICKA AD, 1979, DESARROLLO RURAL AM, V11, P50 KEEN M, 1999, COMMUNICATING RES AN KNOWLES M, 1978, ADULT LEARNER NEGLEC KOLB D, 1984, EXPT LEARNING EXPERI KONDININ, 1999, FARM LINE MARSH SP, 1997, 41 ANN C AUSTR AGR R MARTIN A, 1997, AGR SYST, V55, P195 MARTIN RJ, 1988, AUSTR J EXPT AGR, V28, P499 MCCARTHY M, 1999, FARM MANAGEMENT 500 OJIAMBO JB, 1989, DISS ABSTR A, V5008, P2286 PANNELL DJ, 1999, 43 ANN C AUSTR AGR R PETHERAM RJ, 1998, REV EVALUATION AGR E PICKERING S, 1992, AGR SCI, V5, P41 POL E, 1997, AGRIINDUSTRY GREAT I, P34 REEVE IJ, 1993, AUSTR FARMERS ATTITU, P137 RHOADES RE, 1990, ASIAN TRAINING TRAIN, P10 RHOADES RE, 1990, ASIAN TRAINING TRAIN, P112 ROGERS EM, 1971, COMMUNICATION INNOVA ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION, P453 ROLING NG, 1988, EXTENSION SCI INFORA SCHULZE R, 1997, INT COTTON ADVISORY SINDEN JA, 1990, REV MARKETING AGR EC, V58, P179 SWINDALE LD, 1979, INT S DEV TRANSF TEC, P73 TOFFOLON R, 1998, PREVENTING ENDOSULFA TUCKER M, 1998, ENVIRON MANAGE, V22, P575 VANCLAY F, 1994, EUROPEAN J AGR ED EX, V1, P59 VONFLECKENSTEIN F, 1974, RURAL SOCIOL, V39, P257 WARNER RE, 1981, DISSERT ABSTR, P2978 WEISS V, 1994, AGR SCI, V7, P33 NR 63 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2000 VL 65 IS 2 BP 205 EP 237 PG 33 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 373KF UT ISI:000165287700005 ER PT J AU Molitor, GTT TI Five economic activities likely to dominate the new millennium: II - The Leisure Era SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Publ Policy Forecasting, Potomac, MD USA. RP Molitor, GTT, Publ Policy Forecasting, Potomac, MD USA. NR 0 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 2000 VL 65 IS 2 BP 239 EP 249 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 373KF UT ISI:000165287700006 ER PT J AU Godet, M TI The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The term strategy has been misused and even abused. Worse, the word scenario is often confused with strategy to the point that clarification is needed if we are to understand one another. As a prolongation of the work done by the Rand Corporation in the 1960s, strategic planning, management and prospective approaches have been developed to help organizations master change. Over the past 25 years, we have contributed by creating or further developing various methodologies and procedures such as the Mactor and MICMAC methods for use in scenario building. These tools are doubly powerful in that they stimulate the imagination, reduce collective biases, and promote appropriation. One of the main functions of the strategic futures exercise is to eliminate two errors that we usually describe as the "hammer's risk" and the "nail's dream." In other words, we forget what a hammer's function is when staring at a nail (the nail's dream) or we know how to use a hammer and imagine that every problem is like a nail (the hammer's risk). In our case, we strive to give simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent, common sense, and intuition of the futurist also count! (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, LIPS, F-75141 Paris 03, France. RP Godet, M, Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, LIPS, 2 Rue Conte, F-75141 Paris 03, France. CR ACKOFF R, 1970, CONCEPT CORPORATE PL ANSOFF I, 1965, CORPORATE STRATEGY BERGER G, 1967, ETAPES PROSPECTIVE BOYER L, 1990, HIST MANAGEMENT GIGET M, 1998, DYNAMIQUE STRATEGIQU GODET M, SCENARIOS STRATEGIES GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC GODET M, 1994, ANTICIPATION ACTION GODET M, 1996, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V29 GODET M, 2000, FORESIGHT, V2 HAMEL G, 1994, COMPETING FUTURE JOUVENEL H, 1993, FUTURIBLES, V179 LESOURNE J, 1979, FUTURIBLES, V26 LESOURNE J, 1989, FUTURIBLES, V137 LESOURNE J, 1994, NOTION ENJEAU STRATE MINTZBERG H, 1994, RISE FALL STRATEGIC POIRIER L, 1987, STRATEGIE THEORIQUE, V2 PORTER M, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PORTER M, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG ROUBELAT F, 1996, THESIS SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW SIMON H, 1982, MODELS BOUNDED RATIO, V2 WILSON I, 1995, EUR17298EN IPTS NR 23 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 3 EP 22 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600002 ER PT J AU Wilson, I TI From scenario thinking to strategic action SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Scenarios are not an end in themselves. They are a management tool used to improve the quality of executive decision making. However, experience shows that using scenarios in this way proves more difficult than developing them. This article examines the causes of this implementation problem and suggests ways of overcoming the cultural bias toward single-point forecasting. Starting with a clear-cut decision focus for the scenarios, the author develops a primer or step-by-step methodology for moving from scenarios to strategy, outlining four different approaches. He suggests that only after a great deal of practice will managers be able to move from this elementary approach to a more intuitive and insightful use of scenarios as a guide to strategy. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Wolf Enterprises, San Rafael, CA 94901 USA. GE, Strateg Planning, Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA. RP Wilson, I, Wolf Enterprises, 79 Twin Oakes, San Rafael, CA 94901 USA. NR 0 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 23 EP 29 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600003 ER PT J AU van der Heijden, K TI Scenarios and forecasting: Two perspectives SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper discusses scenarios based on two world views, each giving a perspective on the futurity of organizational actions. The first looks at a problematic situation as something to be clarified through rationalistic reasoning. Scenario building is examined as a way to turn intuitive knowledge of a problematic situation into clear research questions that may be explored by systems analysis and forecasting. However, a distinction must be made between the predictable and the indeterminate in a situation; in other words, a characterization of the future in terms of multiple scenarios. The scenario planner alternates intuitive exploration of the situation with rational analysis and forecasting in an iterative way until a satisfactory description of the future has been derived. An alternative processual perspective suggests that organizations construct their reality socially, in an ongoing conversation. Scenarios help organizations explore unknown territory by allowing the internal strategic conversation to be linked to other relevant conversations taking place elsewhere. In conclusion, scenarios introduce the required variety of ideas and also lead to a gradual alignment in understanding of what the new situation means for the group and what its collective response should be. Therein lies one of the fundamental dilemmas of organizational learning. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Strathclyde, Dept Management Sci, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland. RP van der Heijden, K, Univ Strathclyde, Dept Management Sci, Graham Hills Bldg,40 George St, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland. CR ASHBY WR, 1983, SYSTEMS THINKING EINHORN HJ, 1982, J FORECASTING, P22 JANIS IJ, 1989, CRUCIAL DECISIONS KAHANE A, 1996, DEEPER NEWS, V7 MEADOWS D, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH REPORT VANDERHEIJDEN K, 1996, SCENARIOS ART STRATE WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P131 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P73 NR 8 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 31 EP 36 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600004 ER PT J AU de Jouvenel, H TI A brief methodological guide to scenario building SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This brief guide reviews the philosophical underpinnings of the prospective procedure then strives to explain the concepts and characteristics of this "intellectual undiscipline" which aims not to predict but rather to help shape the future. La prospective contributes to our efforts to gain foresight, an indispensable quality for anyone who wants to be an actor in a future yet to be created. The various stages of the procedure are presented, in particular the scenario method as applied by the author in local, national, and international futures projects for subjects as varied as aging populations, retirement in industrialized countries, and the impact of new technology on production. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Futuribles Int, F-75007 Paris, France. RP de Jouvenel, H, Futuribles Int, 55 Rue Varenne, F-75007 Paris, France. CR 1967, ETAPES PROSPECTIVE 1989, FUTURIBLES AYRES RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA BAREL Y, 1971, PROSPECTIVE ANAL SYS BERGER G, 1958, PROSPECTIVE BERGER G, 1964, PHENOMENOLOGIE TEMPS CAZES B, 1986, FIGURES AVENIR AUGUS CETRON MJ, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA CORNISH E, 1977, STUDY FUTURE CROZIER M, 1986, ACTEUR SYSTEME CONTR CROZIER M, 1986, CONTRAINTES ACTION DATAR, 1975, METHODE SCENARIOS RE DEJOUVENEL B, 1972, ART CONJECTURE DEROSNAY J, 1975, MACRSOCOPE FORRESTER J, 1973, WORLD DYNAMICS GIGET M, 1983, FUTURIBLES, V71 GIGET M, 1989, FUTURIBLES, V137 GODET M, 1991, AVENIR AUTREMENT GODET M, 1992, ANTICIPATION ACTION GODET M, 1994, ANTICIPATION ACTION JANTSCH E, 1967, PREVISION TECHNOLOGI JONES TE, 1980, OPTIONS FUTURE COMP JOUVENEL B, 1972, ART CONJECTURE JOUVENEL, 1994, CATALOGNE HORIZON LESOURNE J, 1979, FUTURIBLES, V26 MARCHETTI C, 1982, FUTURIBLES, V53 MARCHETTI C, 1986, FUTURIBLES MARCHETTI C, 1986, FUTURIBLES, V99 MASINI E, 1993, WHY FUTURES STUDIES MASSE P, 1965, PLAN ANTIHASARD MORIN E, 1977, METHODE NATURE NATUR SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW SERIEYX H, 1989, FUTURIBLES, V137 SLAUGHTER RA, 1996, KNOWLEDGE BASE FUTUR TENIEREBOUCHET PF, 1979, FUTURIBLES, V20 VONBERTALANNFY L, 1973, THEORIE GEN SYSTEMES ZWICKY F, 1962, MORPHOLOGY PROPULSIV NR 37 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 37 EP 48 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600005 ER PT J AU Masini, EB Vasquez, JM TI Scenarios as seen from a human and social perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article examines how scenarios can be more than a futures studies tool, and looks at the necessary epistemological, methodological, and ethical criteria for such scenarios. The aims that guide scenarios and, hence, those that can spring from a human and social perspective are considered. In the authors' view, scenarios tend to broaden mental frontiers because they are multidisciplinary, multidimensional, and drawn from different experiences, "ways of knowing" and personalities. An overview of the various ways of planning and developing scenarios is presented on the basis of the recent literature on the subject. The overview is followed by a presentation of the basic procedures culled from the authors' own international experience. The need for adaptation and the recognition of differences, such as regional variations, are also highlighted. Common characteristics are described with some illustrative cases, for example, the futures-thinking exercise undertaken by a major religious order. Indeed, the cases reveal how the scenario-building procedure may be adapted to different contexts given its flexibility. The essential message is that the effective use of scenarios requires humility, adaptability, and persistence. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Masini, EB, Via A Bertoloni Pelagus 23, I-00197 Rome, Italy. CR *REP PLANN COUNC C, 1998, OCC REG FUT AGUADOMONSONNET M, 1997, EUR17298EN IPTS AHTEM F, 1996, INTRO PROSPECTIVE GODET M, 1994, ANTICIPACION ACCION GODET M, 1997, MANUAL PROSPECTIVE S, V1 HATEM F, 1993, PROSPECTIVE PRATIQUE MASINI E, 1993, WHY FUTURES STUDIES, P33 MASINI E, 1997, PROF M IPTS JRC EC MASINI E, 1998, THESIS PONTIFICIAL G VASQUEZ JM, 1997, PROSPECTIVE CONSTRUC VASQUEZ JM, 1998, OCCIDENTE REGION FUT VASQUEZ M, 1999, VOC TRAIN SEM REG FU NR 12 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 49 EP 66 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600006 ER PT J AU Lafourcade, B Chapuy, P TI Scenarios and actors' strategies: The case of the agri-foodstuff sector SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The importance of the agricultural market in France prompted BASF to seek out a new way of strengthening relations with its partners in the agrifood sector. In 1996, against a backdrop of change (EU legislation) and upheaval (Mad Cow Disease), BASF offered operations managers or officers of distribution companies an opportunity to reflect upon the future in a workshop setting. This innovative three-stage exercise, guided by Professor Michel Godet (CNAM) and the Gerpa consulting team, met with enthusiasm, and was expanded beyond the original group and time frame. In fact, the distribution chain was opened up to include various actors, for example, consumer advocacy groups, so that we speak of the agri-food channel and sector. Original questions focused on farmers' expectations and distribution problems with specific horizon lines. Environmental and genetic issues soon came to the forefront. Besides workshops and meetings, the Delphi-Regnier Abacus technique was applied, as explained in this step-by-step review of the BASF project. Overall, futures thinking has become part of the BASF France way of doing business. Indeed, the BASF "Futures Studies Group," expanded to include mass distribution representatives, intends to continue working on the very timely theme of food safety. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Chapuy, P, 1 Rue Turbigo, F-75001 Paris, France. CR CHAPUY P, 1990, FUTURIBLES MAY CHAPUY P, 1998, CAHIER LIPS, V9 GODET M, 1997, MANUEL PROSPECTIVE S GODET M, 1997, MANUEL PROSPECTIVE S, V2, CH2 NR 4 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 67 EP 80 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600007 ER PT J AU Ayres, RU TI On forecasting discontinuities SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Too much has been written about forecasting trends via "envelope curves." To plot a straight line on log-paper is a no-brainer. The special phenomenology of phase changes, catastrophes, or "crashes," and their key evolutionary role is the subject of this article. There is net unique way of forecasting such events, but one indicator is an apparent inconsistency between two or more extrapolations with each other. Alternatively, a catastrophe may be signalled when a trend extrapolation encounters a natural limit. A number of possible discontinuity scenarios are sketched, although overall, the article laments the lack of theorization in forecasting disconuities. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 INSEAD, Ctr Environm Management Resources, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. RP Ayres, RU, INSEAD, Ctr Environm Management Resources, Blvd Constance, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. CR *IIASA, 1987, POSS DISC BIOSPH DYN *WORLDW, 1998, VIT SIGNS ALVAREZ W, 1997, T REX CRATER DOOM AYRES RU, 1994, INFORMATION ENTROPHY AYRES RU, 1998, ECORESTRUCTURING IMP BERNSTEIN MP, 1999, SCI AM, V281, P26 BROECKER WS, 1995, SCI AM, V273, P44 BROOKS H, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P325 COURTILLOT VE, 1990, SCI AM, V263 DIAMOND J, 1998, GUNS GERMS STEEL ERWIN DH, 1996, SCI AM, V275, P57 FLOHN H, 1986, NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN, V73, P136 FRITZSCH H, 1983, QUARKS STUFF MATTER GARDNER M, 1979, AMBIDEXTROUS UNIVERS HAKEN H, 1983, SYNERGETICS INTRO HAWKING S, 1988, BRIEF HIST TIME BIG HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOYLE F, 1978, LIFE CLOUD KIRSHNER RP, 1994, SCI AM, V271, P37 LARSON RL, 1995, SCI AM, V272, P66 MAYNARDSMITH J, 1995, MAJOR TRANSITIONS EV NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR OFFICER D, 1996, GREAT DINOSAUR EXTIN OPARIN AL, 1938, ORIGIN LIFE PRIGOGINE I, 1980, BEING BECOMING PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT CHAOS MANS SIOLI H, 1984, AMAZON LIMNOLOGY LAN TAWNEY RH, 1948, RELIG RISE CAPITALIS THOM R, 1975, STRUCTURAL STABILITY THOM R, 1983, MATH MODELS MORPHOGE TUCHMAN BW, 1978, DISTANT MIRROR CALAM WEBER M, 1930, ARCH SOZIALWISSENSCH, P1904 WEINBERG AM, 1977, NATURE, V269, P638 ZINSSER H, 1963, RATS LIVE HIST BIOGR NR 34 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 81 EP 97 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600008 ER PT J AU Roubelat, F TI Scenario planning as a networking process SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Scenario planning implies the collective participation of a variety of people-experts, strategists, managers-organized in networks to create alternative representations of the future. As a networking process, scenario planning has a sensemaking function to challenge strategic paradigms of organizations and to rethink their internal and external borders. From a longitudinal case study, this article reviews the rise of future studies or prospective in France to show how scenario planning can use networking structures and actually create networks. Among the practical examples of the scenario-building proc:ess within an organization, the EDF (French electric company) shows that scenario planning groups are semiformal, and can create a networking activity not limited in time and space. From a more general perspective:, scenario planning should evolve by expanding existing networks but also by creating new ones to include small businesses and involve new areas. Information technology could thus support this expansion, but more as a communication tool. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, LIPS, F-75003 Paris, France. RP Roubelat, F, Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, LIPS, 2 Rue Conte, F-75003 Paris, France. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 99 EP 112 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600009 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Scenario planning SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point-they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts, it is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Coates & Jarratt Inc, Washington, DC 20015 USA. RP Coates, JF, Coates & Jarratt Inc, 3738 Kanawha St NW, Washington, DC 20015 USA. NR 0 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 2000 VL 65 IS 1 BP 115 EP 123 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 363QG UT ISI:000089845600011 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Innovation in the future of engineering design SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The future of engineering design is discussed in terms of forces and factors presenting opportunities and limiting factors. After some concept clarification on the meaning of innovation, there is a discussion of creativity, which moves on to the shifting relationship between science and engineering; The central concept of hierarchy of systems is developed, as well as discussion of drivers of invention and adoption. New tools for engineering design are also mentioned. Opportunities include housing for the developing world, macroengineering, and other engineering areas. Engineering education and its shortfalls are discussed, including the need for training in the systems approach. The paper ends with a brief agenda for engineering design. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Coates & Jarratt Inc, Washington, DC 20008 USA. RP Coates, JF, Coates & Jarratt Inc, Suite A500,4455 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20008 USA. CR *JF COAT INC, 1990, ENG 2000 LOOK NEXT 1 AMABILE TM, 1998, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P77 AMABILLE TM, 1987, CREATIVITY R D LAB BURKE J, 1996, SCI AM SEP, P142 COATES JF, 1992, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V35, P6 COATES JF, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V42, P91 HAMMOND KR, 1996, HUMAN JUDGMENT SOCIA HOLLINGWORTH LS, 1926, GIFTED CHILDREN THEI KITZINGER U, 1998, MACROENGINEERING EAR LEHMAN HC, 1953, AGE ACHIEVEMENT MATTHEWS R, 1999, NEW SCI 0227, P50 NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 121 EP 132 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600002 ER PT J AU Clarke, DW TI Strategically evolving the future: Directed evolution and technological systems development SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Directed Evolution (DE)(1) is a proactive method to be used by a company engaged in the development of new products and processes. The method is for the preparation of a comprehensive set of scenarios that allows for the planning and ongoing development of future generations of technological systems. The objective of this paper is to present Directed Evolution as a method, including its historical background, basic assumptions, procedure, and examples of its application. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Ideat Int Inc, Southfield, MI 48075 USA. RP Clarke, DW, Ideat Int Inc, Suite 119,21800 W 10 Mile Rd, Southfield, MI 48075 USA. CR ADIZES I, 1989, CORPORATE LIFECYCLES ALTSHULLER G, 1984, CREATIVITY EXACT SCI BARKER JA, 1989, DISCOVERING FUTURE B BARKER JA, 1993, PARADIGMS BUSINESS D BECKHARD R, 1987, ORG TRANSITIONS MANA BROOKING A, 1996, INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL CLARKE D, 1999, DIRECTED EVOLUTION O CLARKE D, 1999, SEFL SUFFICIENCY IPS CLARKE D, 1999, TRIZ SPECIALIST ED M DRUCKER PF, 1985, INNOVATION ENTREPREN FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS KAPLAN S, 1996, INTRO TRIZ RUSSIAN T LEVITT T, 1983, MARKETING IMAGINATIO MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEYER C, 1993, FAST CYCLE TIME ALIG PATTERSON ML, 1993, ACCELERATING INNOVAT PORTER ME, 1987, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG SNODGRASS TJ, 1986, FUNCTION ANAL STEPPI STEINER GA, 1979, STRATEGIC PLANNING W TERNINKO J, 1998, SYSTEMATIC INNOVATIO ZAINIEV G, 1997, CASE STUDY ENDOSCOPI ZLOTIN B, 1999, INNOVATION WORKBENCH ZUSMAN A, 1999, KNOWLEDGE WIZARD SOF ZUSMAN A, 1999, TRIZ PROGR NR 24 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 133 EP 153 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600003 ER PT J AU Ardayfio, DD TI Principles and practices of design innovation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT AB This paper provides an overview of the concepts of Design Innovation practice in the product creation industry. The paper covers the following aspects of design innovation: use of design innovation for product leadership, survey of several aspects of design innovation in several industrial segments, design innovation research practice, and examples of design innovation. Several recent papers on the subject were surveyed to provide the supporting illustrative examples in industry for the design innovation concepts discussed. The illustrative examples highlighted cover some of the major industries ripe for design innovation including the following industries: automotive, motorcycle, household appliances, earth-moving equipment, telephone, and plastics industries. A comprehensive bibliographic reference covering some of the work done in China, Italy, UK, and USA provides a resource for further reading. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 DaimlerChrysler Corp, Qual & Reliabil Planning Dept, Auburn Hills, MI USA. RP Ardayfio, DD, DaimlerChrysler Corp, Qual & Reliabil Planning Dept, CIMS 484-20-02,800 Chrysler Dr E, Auburn Hills, MI USA. CR 1998, AUTOMOTIVE IND, V178, P35 1999, VEHICLE ENG JOINT UA, V10 ARDAYFIO DD, 1998, SAE INT C EXP DETR M ARDAYFIO DD, 1999, LECT NOTES ADV PROD BOYLE E, 1995, P IEEE 1995 NAT AE 2, V2, P967 CHRINSTENSEN CM, 1997, INNOVATORS DILEMMA G COLE JP, 1996, ASHRAE J, V38, P44 DAI H, 1995, STRUCT DES TALL BUIL, V4, P229 DOLAN WR, 1995, P 39 ANN M HUM FACT, V1 DUCEY M, 1998, CONVERTING MAGAZINE, V18, P62 FOREMAN P, SAE T, V200 FUNIO K, 1997, EMERGING PATTERNS IN HAMBURG L, 1996, PRINTED CIRCUIT DESI, V13, P40 JEWETT D, 1998, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, V5757, P37 KEEBLER J, 1998, MOTOR TREND, V50, P52 KISIEL R, 1997, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS AUG, P20 KISIEL RA, 1997, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS SEP, P3 LANSDALE MW, 1996, INT J HUM-COMPUT ST, V44, P777 LEE RB, 1996, J ELECTROANAL CHEM, V401, P6 MICHELLONE GC, GIORNALE ATTI ASS TE, V47, P41 MOORE D, 1995, REFRIGERATION SERVIC, V63, P30 MORSEFORTIER LJ, 1996, MIT P 1996 C NAT DIS, P293 MORSEFORTIER LS, 1997, P ASCE C 1997 NEW YO, P136 MRAZ SJ, 1998, MACH DES, V70, P106 MUFFATTO M, 1996, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V13, P348 MUMMA SA, 1994, P ASHRAE WINT M NEW, V100, P1607 NAKADA K, 1997, INT J IND ERGONOM, V19, P129 PEARCE AW, 1985, I MECH E C 1985 1989 PETIAU C, 1995, DASSAULT AVIATION CO ROY R, 1997, TECHNOVATION, V17, P537 SCHWEITZER G, 1994, M NEW DES FRONT MOR SIEVING AW, 1984, 35 SAE ANN EARTHM IN SUMMERS A, 1996, IND MANAGE DATA SYST, V96, P27 WARREN P, 1997, AUTOMOT ENG, V100, P12 WHITSTON CW, 1967, SAE AER SPAC ENG MAN WIGOTSKY V, 1996, PLAST ENG, V52, P20 WILLER YJ, 1970, NAT BUS AIRCR M ENG WINTER D, 1998, WARDS AUTO WORLD, V34, P47 WOODCOCK EJ, 1982, TRUCK BUS M EXP IND WRIGHT JC, 1995, LITT COL MISS EH101 ZHAO H, 1995, P 5 GREAT LAK S VLSI, P218 ZHOU JG, 1997, ASME DESIGN DIV, V94, P25 NR 42 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 155 EP 169 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600004 ER PT J AU Allen, RH Sriram, RD TI The role of standards in innovation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB We review and explore the role of standards in innovation, with particular emphasis on design and manufacturing processes. We begin by defining and classifying standards and by exploring their role and infrastructure in society. This is followed by a similar discussion for innovation. By examining the relationships between innovation and standards, we extract the negative impact and the positive impact each has on the other. A study of four case histories in different domains-manufacturing, computer hardware, mechanical component design, and product data exchange-reveals that, as expected, standards are often derived from innovative technology. Surprisingly, however, innovation is often spurred-directly and indirectly-from standards as well. We conclude that, in general, the benefits of standards on innovation in design and manufacturing outweigh the possible limitations on creativity imposed by such standards. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 NIST, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 USA. Univ Maryland, Dept Mech Engn, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. RP Sriram, RD, NIST, 100 Bur Dr,Stop 8260, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 USA. CR 1997, DEV INT IND DATA STA 1997, MECH ENG JUN, P120 1998, ANSI ONLINE *ASTM, 1996, C102896 ASTM *HOUS URB DEV, 1995, MAN HOM CONSTR SAF S *ISO, 1994, 1030311994 ISO BRUNNERMEIER S, 1999, INTEOPERABILITY COST CASSINGHAM RC, 1996, DVORKA KEYBOARD ERGO COLLINS JC, 1997, BUILT LAST SUCCESSFU DEBONO E, 1992, SERIOUS CREATIVITY DUNPHY SM, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P279 JUDSON LV, 1976, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V447 LIFCHUS IL, 1985, ANSI REPORTER NOV, P141 MAHAJAN V, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P109 MALLETT RL, 1998, ISSUES SCI TECHN WIN, P63 MCCARTNEY S, 1999, ENIAC TRIUMPHS TRAGE MCCUSKER J, 1978, MONEY EXCHANGE EUROP MILLAR JR, 1994, SOCIAL LEGACY COMMUN, P1 NOYES J, 1983, INT J MAN MACH STUD, V18, P265 ROTHWELL R, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P91 SABBAGH K, 1995, 21 CENTURY JET BOEIN SHAW WA, 1967, SELECT TRACTS DOCUME TEMPLE R, 1986, GENIUS CHINA 3000 YE USHER AP, 1954, HIST MECH INVENTIONS UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I VONOECH R, 1998, WHACK SIDE HEAD ZUCKERMAN A, 1999, QUALITY PROGR JAN, P39 NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 171 EP 181 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600005 ER PT J AU Gero, JS TI Computational models of innovative and creative design processes SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Computational support for designing began in the early 1960s, and has had a considerable influence. Only recently has there been the possibility of providing computational support for innovative and creative designing. This paper presents a number of computational models of creative designing; including combination, transformation, analogy, emergence, and first principles as a representative set. It describes them within a uniform framework and indicates the potential of having such models on technological change in a society where designers are the change agents of the physical world. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Sydney, Dept Architectural & Design Sci, Key Ctr Design Comp & Cognit, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. RP Gero, JS, Univ Sydney, Dept Architectural & Design Sci, Key Ctr Design Comp & Cognit, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. CR 1999, ECONOMIST, V350, P57 *IMC, 1998, TECH SOFTW AELION V, 1992, RES ENG DESIGN, V4, P101 ALTSHULLER G, 1988, CREATIVITY EXACT SCI ARCISZEWSKI T, 1995, P 3 INT ROUND TABL C, P397 BOBROW DG, 1984, ARTIF INTELL, V24, P1 BODEN M, 1991, CREATIVE IND MYTHS M CARBONELL JG, 1983, MACHINE LEARNING ART, P137 CARBONELL JG, 1986, MACHINE LEARNING ART, V2, P371 CHAN CC, 1999, CAADRIA 99, P42 CRUZNEIRA C, 1993, P SIGGRAPH 93, P135 FINKE R, 1992, CREATIVE COGNITION T GERO JS, 1990, AI MAG, V11, P26 GERO JS, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P509 GERO JS, 1999, COMPUTATIONAL MODELS, V4, P113 GERO JS, 1999, COMPUTATIONAL MODELS, V4, P175 HUA KF, 1993, AI EDAM, V7, P135 KILLANDER A, 1999, COMPUTATIONAL MODELS, V4, P5 MAHER ML, 1995, CASE BASED REASONING MCLAUGHLIN S, 1993, MODELING CREATIVITY, P43 NAVINCHANDRA D, 1991, EXPLORATION INNOVATI QIAN L, 1992, ARTIF INTELL, P795 ROSENMAN MA, 1992, MODELLING CREATIVITY, P119 STINY G, 1993, CAAD FUTURES 93, P37 SUWA M, 1999, COMPUTATIONAL MODELS, V4, P277 WILLIAMS BC, 1991, INT CAD 91 PREPRINTS, P247 ZHAO F, 1992, ARTIF INTELL, P773 NR 27 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 183 EP 196 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600006 ER PT J AU Uduma, K TI Innovations in auto safety design, a key to quality improvement SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB As the public becomes increasingly aware that safety is a health-related issue, more stringent requirements have now been placed on manufacturers' products so as to limit injuries to people from these products. Therefore, a product's quality is now no longer measured solely in terms of aesthetic, comfort, and durability, but increasingly, in terms of its injury mitigating features. In the Auto Industry for example, safety has become the major factor driving the design of new vehicles. Innovative safety concepts are continuously sought after and evolved by safety engineers to forestall crash (crash avoidance design concepts), reduce injury when crash does occur (vehicle crashworthiness), and to protect occupants and pedestrians from flames and other hazards after crash (postcrash protection design concepts). The objective of this paper is to provide a perspective of the evolution of automotive safety in the United States and also take a peek at global future trends. In addition, this paper shows how innovative safety concepts are not only shaping vehicle design but also changing the rigid definition of vehicle quality. Practical examples of evolutions of innovative safety concepts through the processes of Inventive Engineering are presented in the area of vehicle crash engineering. Concepts constraints are briefly reviewed as related to their design contradictions to comfort quality and safety quality. The focus is on Head Injury Criterion (HIC) and Dynamic Side Impact (DSI) regulatory requirements. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 DaimlerChrysler, Vehicle Dev Impact Syst, Auburn Hills, MI 48236 USA. RP Uduma, K, DaimlerChrysler, Vehicle Dev Impact Syst, 800 Chrysler Dr, Auburn Hills, MI 48236 USA. CR 1924, WASH C STREET HIGHW, P38 1997, NHTSA AUG, V62, P45202 *PROJ SUMM NHTSA, RES DEV ARCISZEWSKI T, 1998, INVENTIVE ENG THEORY EASTMAN JW, 1984, SAFETY VS STYLING AM FRUNAS JC, 1935, READERS DIGEST 0821 HOBBS CA, 1995, 950879 SAE UDUMA K, 1998, BATHTUB BRACKET EFFI NR 8 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 197 EP 208 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600007 ER PT J AU Schum, DA TI Teaching about discovery and invention in engineering SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Described in this paper is a course offered at George Mason University on the topics of discovery and invention for graduate engineering students. Many of these students are pursuing research on Various strategies for enhancing discovery and inventive processes in various fields of engineering. Offering courses on the processes of discovery and invention presents a distinct challenge to any instructor, because the literature on these topics is so vast and comes from so many different disciplines. The topics described in this paper involve issues we believe to be the most crucial for students seeking a thorough understanding of the major lines of thought on discovery and invention. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 George Mason Univ, Sch Law, Sch Informat Technol & Engn, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. RP Schum, DA, George Mason Univ, Sch Law, Sch Informat Technol & Engn, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. CR ALTSCHULLER G, 1984, CREATIVITY EXACT SCI BODEN M, 1990, CREATIVE MIND MYTHS BODEN M, 1994, DIMENSIONS CREATIVIT BRIGGS J, 1989, TURBULENT MIRROR ILL CARDWELL D, 1995, NORTON HIST TECHNOLO CORBEN H, 1991, STRUGGLE UNDERSTAND COTTERILL R, 1998, ENCHANTED LOOMS CONS COVENY P, 1995, FRONTIERS COMPLEXITY CRICK F, 1994, ASTONISHING HYPOTHES CRUTCHFIELD JP, 1994, SFI S SCI C, V19, P515 CSIKSZENTMIHALY.M, 1997, CREATIVITY FLOW PSYC DASGUPTA S, 1996, TECHNOLOGY CREATIVIT DEBONO E, 1990, LATERAL THINKING CRE ECCLES J, 1956, NEUROPHYSIOLOGICAL B ECCLES J, 1970, FACING REALITY PHILO ECO U, 1988, SIGN 3 DUPIN HOLMES EDELMAN G, 1992, BRIGHT AIR BRILLIANT EDWARDS D, 1980, MORE CREATIVE FOGLER H, 1995, STRATEGIES CREATIVE GORDON W, 1961, SYNECTICS GRUDIN R, 1990, GRACE GREAT THINGS C HADAMARD J, 1954, PSYCHOL INVENTION MA HEBB D, 1949, ORG BEHAV HEBB D, 1980, ESSAY MIND HINTIKKA J, 1988, SIGN 3 DUPIN HOLMES, P154 HINTIKKA J, 1988, SIGN 3 DUPIN HOLMES, P170 HOLLAND J, 1998, EMERGENCE ORDER CHAO JOSEPHSON J, 1994, ABDUCTIVE INFERENCE KNEALE W, 1952, PROBABILITY INDUCTIO KOESTLER A, 1989, ACT CREATION LAKATOS L, 1983, PROOFS REFUTATIONS L LANGLEY P, 1987, SCI DISCOVERY COMPUT LENAT DB, 1983, ARTIF INTELL, V21, P61 OCHOA G, 1995, TIMELINE BOOK SCI OLDROYD D, 1986, ARCH KNOWLEDGE INTRO OLIVER J, 1991, INCOMPLETE GUIDE ART OSBORN A, 1953, APPL IMAGINATION PENROSE R, 1991, EMPERORS NEW MIND CO PENROSE R, 1994, SHADOWS MIND SEARCH PENROSE R, 1997, LARGE SMALL HUMAN MI PETROSKI H, 1997, INVENTION DESIGN ENG POLYA G, 1973, SOLVE IT NEW ASPECT PONCARE H, 1956, WORLD MATH, V4, P2041 ROOTBERNSTEIN S, 1989, DISCOVERING INVENTIN SCHRODINGER E, 1967, WHAT IS LIFE MIND MA SHERRINGTON C, 1940, MAN HIS NATURE SINGER J, 1995, MIND BRAIN COMPLEX A, V22, P1 STERNBERG R, 1991, NATURE CREATIVITY CO THAGARD P, 1993, COMPUTATIONAL PHILOS WIGNER E, 1969, P AM PHILOS SOC, P113 ZWICKY F, 1962, MONOGRAPHS MORPHOLOG, V1 NR 51 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 209 EP 223 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600008 ER PT J AU Karni, R Kaner, M TI Teaching innovative conceptual design of systems in the service sector SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Faced with competitive pressures to modernize and innovate, the service sector requires tools for systems design and idea generation. This has motivated the development of a triple-faceted conceptual design methodology, which describes a system concept, in a given domain, as an interlinked set of nominal attributes and their qualitative values. These attributes encompass the circumstances in which the system is to operate (goals, designer intent, environment), and the structure of that system (configuration, organization, operations, control). They can further be categorized in terms of a generalized taxonomy, including customers, goals, inputs, outputs, processes, human enablers, physical enablers, environment, and informatics. New attributes are generated by several ideation mechanisms: browsing, relating to a generic set of system categories and attributes, and applying knowledge transmutations. Part of the methodology has been utilized in several engineering design classes, where students were required to develop concepts for service systems of their choice. Over 100 such designs were developed; and some of them have been incorporated into a repository of categories, attributes, and values that can serve as a knowledge or case base for service systems design. The complete methodology will be incorporated into future engineering design courses. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Technion Israel Inst Technol, Fac Ind Engn & Management, IL-32000 Haifa, Israel. RP Karni, R, Technion Israel Inst Technol, Fac Ind Engn & Management, IL-32000 Haifa, Israel. CR ARCISZEWSKI T, 1994, ARTIF INTELL, P295 ARCISZEWSKI T, 1995, INT ROUND TABL WORKS BIRCH P, 1996, IMAGINATION ENG, P32 BLANCHARD BS, 1998, SYSTEMS ENG ANAL, P45 CHECKLAND PB, 1981, SYSTEMS THINKING SYS DIETTERICH TG, 1983, MACHINE LEARNING ART, P3 EVANGELISTA R, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P251 GERO JS, 1990, AI MAG, V11, P26 GUILFORD JP, 1967, NAT HUM INTELL, P213 HWANG CL, 1981, MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE D HYBS I, 1992, DES STUD, V13, P273 KARNI R, 1996, COURSE NOTES ENG DES KARNI R, 1997, RES ENG DES, V9, P146 KAYTON M, 1997, IEEE T AERO ELEC S 2, V33, P579 LEE AM, 1970, SYSTEM ANAL FRAMEWOR, P17 NADLER G, 1970, WORK DESIGN, P37 NADLER G, 1981, PLANNING DESIGN, P83 NADLER G, 1998, BREAKTHROUGH THINKIN, P198 PROCTOR RA, 1993, LEADERSHIP ORG DEV J, V14, P13 SCHMENNER RW, 1995, SERVICE ORG MANAGEME, P1 STUART FI, 1996, INT J SERV IND MANAG, V7, P58 TURNER WC, 1993, INTRO IND SYST ENG VERMA D, 1997, IEEE T AERO ELEC S 2, V33, P587 WILSON IG, 1970, IDEA WORKING MODEL, P80 YOUNG LF, 1989, DECISION SUPPORT IDE, P262 NR 25 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 225 EP 240 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600009 ER PT J AU Strzalecki, A TI Creativity in design - General model and its verification SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The general model of creativity in design is presented. Creativity is seen as a superordinate construct defined by three lower order constructs: (1) flexibility, orginiality, and fluency of cognitive processes, (2) freedom and orginality of personal expression, (3) autonomy of an axiologic system. The model has been empirically verified in two domains where technological and social change is especially manifested: technical sciences and entrepreneurship. The first study has been devoted to the role of psychological factors of the creative problem-solving process in the engineering. sciences, and the second study to the psychological factors of the creative entrepreneurship. The results obtained by especailly constructed techniques are presented and discussed, and the validity of the model is checked. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski, Chair Gen Psychol, PL-01815 Warsaw, Poland. RP Strzalecki, A, Univ Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski, Chair Gen Psychol, Dewajtis 5, PL-01815 Warsaw, Poland. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 241 EP 260 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600010 ER PT J AU Kumar, SS TI Components of science-based innovation measurements and their links to public policies SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT AB This paper dwells on the measurement of effectiveness and impact in respect of innovations in science and attempts to correlate their links to public policies for funding. It is argued that these links are not often straightforward, making it necessary to analyze and assess how science relates to society more quantitatively. Based on a survey and analysis of relevant statistics, this paper seeks to identify significant measures to indicate effectiveness in science and outline their relations and links to policy. This is necessitated in the context of a more cogent argument for public support of science. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 CSIR, Reg Res Lab, Trivandrum 695019, Kerala, India. RP Kumar, SS, CSIR, Reg Res Lab, Trivandrum 695019, Kerala, India. CR *C RES SERV, 1992, LINK FED RES DEV FUN *SCI RES RES DIV N, 1995, AS NEW HIGH TECH COM ABELSON PH, 1996, SCIENCE, V273, P445 ALBERT MD, 1991, RES POLICY, V220, P251 BUSH V, 1990, SCI ENDLESS FRONTIER BYRELY R, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1531 DANIELS GH, 1967, SCIENCE, V156, P699 GRILICHES Z, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P1 HEE CH, 1998, S T SCI PUBLIC POLIC, V25, P47 KIBA T, 1998, SCI PUBLIC POLIC AUG, P227 LEVY DM, 1982, ANN M SO EC ASS ATL LEYDEN DP, 1991, APPL ECON, V23, P1673 MANSFIELD E, 1995, REV ECON STAT, V77, P55 MANSFIELD E, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P1047 NADIRI MI, 1993, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG NAVIN F, 1988, HDB QUANTITATIVE STU PAVITT K, 1985, SCIENTOMETRICS, V7, P77 PREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNOLOGY POLICY EC SCHERER M, 1992, 1 EPO IFO WORKSH MUN SOUNDER WE, 1995, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V54, P231 STEELMAN JR, 1980, SCI PUBLIC POLICY STOKES DE, 1997, PASTEURS QUADRANT BA TERLECKYJ N, 1974, EFFECT R D PRODUCTIV TERLECKYJ N, 1980, NEW DEV PRODUCTIVITY TRAJTENBERG M, 1990, EC ANAL PRODUCT INNO NR 25 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 2000 VL 64 IS 2-3 BP 261 EP 269 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 343YB UT ISI:000088729600011 ER PT J AU Goldberg, DE TI The design of innovation: Lessons from genetic algorithms, lessons for the real world SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article considers some of the connections between genetic algorithms (GAs)-search procedures based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics-and human innovation. Simply stated, innovation has been a source of inspiration for thinking about genetic algorithms, and as the algorithms have improved. GAs have become increasingly interesting computational models of the processes of innovation. The article reviews the basics of genetic algorithm operation and connects the basic mechanics to two processes of innovation: continual improvement and discontinuous change. Thereafter, some of the technical lessons of genetic algorithm processing are reviewed and their implications are briefly explored in the context of organizational change. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Illinois, Dept Gen Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RP Goldberg, DE, Univ Illinois, Dept Gen Engn, 117 Transportat Bldg,40 S Matthews Ave, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. CR GOLDBERG DE, 1989, GENETIC ALGORITHMS S NR 1 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 7 EP 12 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900002 ER PT J AU Terano, T TI Analyzing social interaction in electrotronic communities using an artificial world approach SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article describes a novel computer simulation technique to analyze social interaction among people in electronic mediated communication groups. TRURL: the simulator we developed utilizes agent-based approach, genetics-based computational methods, and real world grounded socio-metric measures. Therefore, it will give a new gear to navigate complex information and learning organizations. This article presents basic principles and mechanisms of TRURL, and discusses the results and contributions to social interaction studies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Tsukuba, Grad Sch Syst Management, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 1120012, Japan. RP Terano, T, Univ Tsukuba, Grad Sch Syst Management, Bunkyo Ku, 3-29-1 Otsuka, Tokyo 1120012, Japan. CR AXELROD R, 1997, COMPLEXITY COOPERATI BRADSHAW JM, 1997, SOFTWARE AGENTS CARLEY KM, 1994, COMPUTATIONAL ORGANI CYERT RM, 1963, BEHAV THEORY FIRM EPSTEIN J, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S GAYLORD RJ, 1998, SIMULATING SOC MATH GOLDBERG DE, 1989, GENETIC ALGORITHMS S KOBAYASHI Y, 1996, THESIS TSUKUBA U TSU NONAKA I, 1995, KNOWLEDGE CREATING C RUSSEL S, 1995, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGE SIMON HA, 1982, SCI ARTIFICIAL TERANO T, 1998, P ART LIF, V6, P326 NR 12 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 13 EP 21 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900003 ER PT J AU Phillips, F Tuladhar, SD TI Measuring organizational flexibility: An exploration and general model SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB An organization is flexible if it is capable of multiple responses to its environment. Because changing over from one response to another involves "set-up costs," flexibility can be regarded as detrimental to efficiency. But in a time of globalization and rapid change in business, companies must attend to agile response (flexibility) as much as to efficiency. Efficiency can be measured by several techniques, including Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). There is, however, no accepted, operational, and useful measure of organizational flexibility. This article characterizes the properties such a measure would have. Following some scene-setting discussion of the roles of efficiency and flexibility in theories of economics, evolution, and general systems, a general model of (relative) flexibility is proposed, building on Ashby's [1] definition of the variety that must be generated by a sustainable system. A special case of this model is applied to 10 years of financial data on 44 computer and computer-related companies. Results show that companies scoring high on a flexibility measure achieve more consistent efficiency over the time span studied. Discussion indicates how a flexibility model can complement DEA studies to round out the characterization of corporate performance. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Oregon Grad Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Management Sci & Technol, Beaverton, OR 97006 USA. Univ Texas, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Phillips, F, Oregon Grad Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Management Sci & Technol, Beaverton, OR 97006 USA. CR *STAND TECHN INC, 1995, PAV AG WAY SMES AG E, V1 AMOS J, 1998, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI ASHBY R, 1964, INTRO CYBERNETICS BROCKETT PL, 1994, EVALUATING MANAGING BYRNES P, 1994, DATA ENVELOPMENT ANA CHARNES A, 1978, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V2, P429 CHARNES A, 1985, ANN OPER RES, V2, P59 CHARNES A, 1994, DATA ENVELOPMENT ANA COLLINS JC, 1994, BUILT LAST SUCCESSFU FERRIER GD, 1994, DATA ENVELOPMENT ANA GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GOLANY B, 1990, ASIAN PACIFIC OPERAT GOLANY B, 1990, COMPUT ENVIRON URBAN, V14, P89 GRAHAM R, 1998, SFI B WIN, P8 KAMO J, 1997, PICMET 97 P PORTL IN KELLY K, 1994, OUT CONTROL NEW BIOL LEONARD G, 1991, MASTERY PHILLIPS F, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P239 THORE S, 1993, DYNAMICS DAYS ARIZON THORE S, 1993, TECHNOLOGY KNOWLEDGE THORE S, 1994, J PROD ANAL, V5, P229 THORE S, 1995, COMPUTERS OPERATIONS, V23, P341 NR 22 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 23 EP 38 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900004 ER PT J AU Miyazaki, K Kijima, K TI Complexity in technology management: Theoretical analysis and case study of automobile sector in Japan SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In this article, a theoretical analysis on the various issues related to technology management under growing complexity is provided. We put forward a model classifying complex situations, including technology management on a two dimensional space, i.e., object-related and human-related complexity. The point on the grid depends on factors related to external and internal complexity as well as conflict of interests by the actors. By analyzing complexity involved in technology management using this framework, we may extract crucial dimensions of technology management. Finally, we provide a case study on the strategies of the Japanese automobile sector, by mainly focusing on the technological perspective. The chosen companies were Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi Motors, and Mazda. The factors related to the growing complexity in technology management were both technological and non-technological in nature. An analysis of the rare and direction of competence building based on parent data confirmed that the companies have been building competences in key areas related to safety, environment, and driving comfort over a decade to meet changing social expectations and environmental pressures. The analysis shows that the automobile sector has been undergoing radical changes due to growing internal and external complexity. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Tokyo Inst Technol, Grad Sch Decis Sci & Technol, Tokyo 152, Japan. RP Miyazaki, K, Tokyo Inst Technol, Grad Sch Decis Sci & Technol, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Tokyo 152, Japan. CR BRESSAND A, 1985, PROCHAIN MONDE CALLON M, 1994, STI REV OECD, V14 CALLON M, 1997, IFTM KYOT JAP NOV CASTI JL, 1986, COMPLEXITY LANGUAGE FLOOD R, 1988, DEALING COMPLEXITY FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EVO GRANSTRAND O, 1991, INT C CHANG TECHN IS HOBDAY M, 1998, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V2, P1 HOBDAY M, 1998, RES POLICY, V26, P689 KIJIMA K, 1997, DECISION MAKING SYST, V1 KLIR G, 1991, FACETS SYSTEMS SCI KODAMA F, 1991, ANAL JAPANESE HIGH T MITROFF I, 1993, UNBOUNDED MIND MIYAZAKI K, 1994, IND CORP CHANGE, V3, P631 MIYAZAKI K, 1994, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V6, P107 MIYAZAKI K, 1995, BUILDING COMPETENCES NELSON R, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL SHIN B, 1997, 30 HAW INT C SYST SC NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 39 EP 54 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900005 ER PT J AU Laxton, R TI The World Wide Web as neural net - Implications for market-driven Web enabling SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This is a position paper on the World Wide Web as a neural network; a network of interconnected concepts that is becoming complex enough to start to resemble a mind. This similarity can be used by organizations to leverage their information technology-enabled strategic advantage. During information technology strategic planning, web-enabling technologies should be used to align information systems with organizational vision and goals, as well as with overall enterprise architecture to optimize organizational agility. Aligning the Internet and Intranet web-enabling platforms and systems within an organization by utilizing neural network principles should enhance this optimization. The primary hypothesis is that it can be shown that the World Wide Web's birth, growth, and knowledge acquisition patterns are remarkably similar to those of the human brain. The secondary hypothesis is that this similarity can be exploited to advantage by organizations in planning their web site strategy to meet their market-driven web enabling strategies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 KPMG Consulting, Chicago, IL USA. RP Laxton, R, Oregon Grad Inst, MST Dept, POB 91000, Portland, OR 97291 USA. CR *C CURR CO, 1996, COMP STRAT REENG YOU BARZUM J, 1970, MODERN RES, P175 BOHM D, 1965, SPECIAL THEORY RELAT CRONIN MJ, 1994, DOING BUSINESS INTER ECO U, 1979, THEORY SEMIOTICS EVANS T, 1996, BUILDING INTRANET HA FERRIS T, 1988, COMING AGE MILKY WAY, P301 FISHER JM, 1996, WEBMASTERS HDB EXPER FRIED L, 1995, MANAGING INFORMATION HOFSTADTER DR, 1985, METAMAGICAL THEMAS Q KOWALYSKO I, 1987, BASIC CONCEPTS STATE MINKSY M, 1988, SOC MIND NEGROPONTE N, 1995, BEING DIGITAL PENROSE R, 1989, EMPERORS NEW MIND CO PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG REMENYI D, 1997, ACHIEVING MAXIMUM VA ROLSTON DW, 1988, PRINCIPLES ARTIFICIA SAYRE K, 1963, MODELING MIND, P157 SHROBE HE, 1988, EXPLORING ARTIFICIAL SOUCEK B, 1988, NEURAL MASSIVELY PAR SUTHERLAND N, 1963, MODELING MIND VERBA SM, 1989, 16 21 JUL WORKSH INT NR 22 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 55 EP 70 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900006 ER PT J AU Kulkarni, RG Stough, RR Haynes, KE TI Towards modeling of Communities of Practice (CoPs) - A Hebbian learning approach to organizational learning SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article addresses the issue of group learning, which is an emerging philosophy in the field of organizational learning. Although not all groups learn, those that do and form spontaneously have been referred to as Communities of Practice (CoPs). These groups appear to be very important among professional and dynamically interactive organizations. Members of such groups come together mainly due to exposure to a set of shared problems, professional and/or social. These members interact directly and use each other as sounding boards for new ideas and help each other learn. Both the business and academic fields have come to recognize CoPs as one of the most important structures in learning institutions or organizations. Identification, cultivation and maintenance of such groups has become a key issue in the field of knowledge management. If CoPs are one of the mechanisms by which organizations learn then it would be useful to acquire greater insight into these groups. In this article, we propose an analytical model of CoPs based on the neural network concept of Hebbian learning. Computer simulations are used to test the analytical model. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 George Mason Univ, Inst Publ Policy, Mason Enterprise Ctr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. RP Kulkarni, RG, George Mason Univ, Inst Publ Policy, Mason Enterprise Ctr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. CR ALLEE V, 1997, KNOWLEDGE EVOLUTION BLACKMORE SJ, 1999, MEME MACHINE BROWN S, 1991, ORG SCI, P40 CAVALERI SA, 1996, MANAGING ORG LEARN CHAWLA S, 1995, LEARNING ORG DEV CUL DAVENPORT T, 1997, INFORMATION ECOLOGY DIABELLA AJ, 1998, ORG LEARN GARVIN D, 1993, BUILDING LEARNING OR GOULD P, 1969, 4 ASS AM GEOGR HAMEL G, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P82 HEBB DO, 1949, ORG BEHAV, P60 HOPFIELD JJ, 1982, P NATIONAL ACADEMY S, V79, P2254 HUBERMAN BA, 1994, COMMUNITIES PRACTICE HUGHES B, 1983, MATH PHYSICS DISORDE, P1 KOHONEN T, 1997, SELF ORGANIZING MAPS KOTTER JK, 1996, LEADING CHANGE KRACKHARDT D, 1993, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P104 LAVE J, 1991, SITUATED LEARNING LE MARQUANDT MJ, 1996, BUILDING LEARNING OR PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI PRALAHAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P79 RYCROFT R, IN PRESS COMPLEXITY SCOTT WR, 1992, ORG RATIONAL NATURAL SENGE PM, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE ART SCI STEWART T, 1996, FORTUNE 0805, P173 VAILLIM PB, 1996, LEARNING WAY BEING S WENGER E, 1998, COMMUNITIES PRACTICE NR 27 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 71 EP 83 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900007 ER PT J AU Koh, AT TI Linking learning, knowledge creation, and business creativity - A preliminary assessment of the East Asian quest for creativity SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article reviews the growing body of recent business literature on the determinants and dynamics of organizational creativity, and its linkages with the nature and scope of organizational learning and knowledge creation within the firm. The review is focused on examining the behavior of visionary, long-lived, frontier firms in the developed world. It uncovers a strong linkage between advanced learning. knowledge creation, and organizational creativity within the context of environmental factors which favor creativity enhancement. Based on this review, a conceptual framework linking learning, knowledge, and organizational creativity is constructed and deployed to help interpret and provide a preliminary assessment of East Asia's quest for creativity in countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Econ, Singapore 119260, Singapore. RP Koh, AT, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Econ, Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 119260, Singapore. CR AMABILE TM, 1987, FRONTIERS CREATIVITY ARGYRIS C, 1978, ORGANIZATIONAL LEARN ARGYRIS C, 1996, ORGANIZATIONAL LEARN, V2 BOTKIN J, 1997, 1 INT C TECHN POL IN COLLINS JC, 1996, BUILT LAST SUCCESSFU FARKAS C, 1995, MAXIMUM LEADERSHIP FRITZ R, 1994, CREATING HAMEL G, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P83 HEDLUND G, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P73 HOBDAY M, 1995, INNOVATION E ASIA CH INKPEN AC, 1997, COOPERATIVE STRATEGI KAO J, 1996, JAMMING ART DISCIPLI KIM L, 1997, IMITATION INNOVATION KODAMA F, 1995, EMERGING PATTERNS IN KOH AT, 1999, 1999 ASAIHL ASS SE A LOH L, 1998, COMPETITIVENESS SING MARQUARDT M, 1996, BUILDING LEARNING OR NONAKA I, 1991, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV NONAKA I, 1995, KNOWLEDGE CREATING C PLSEK PE, 1997, CREATIVITY INNOVATIO PRUSAK L, 1996, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT PUCIK V, 1996, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT REVAN R, 1980, ACTION LEARNING NEW ROBINSON AG, 1997, CORPORATE CREATIVITY TATSUNO SM, 1990, CREATED JAPAN IMITAT WEST MA, 1990, INNOVATION CREATIVIT WONG PK, 1995, IND STRATEGY GLOBAL WONG PK, 1998, COMPETITIVENESS SING ZAND DE, 1972, ADM SCI Q, V17, P229 ZUBOFF S, 1988, AGE SMART MACHINE FU NR 30 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 85 EP 100 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900008 ER PT J AU Vicenzi, R Adkins, G TI A tool for assessing organizational vitality in an era of complexity SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The evolution toward a post-industrial. or knowledge-based, economy brings previously unrecognized predicators of organizational health into focus. The authors integrate concepts from complexity theory, postmodern organizational theory, and "Knowledge Management" as a source for innovation into a diagnostic tool to measure the comparative health of an organization in terms of successfully competing in the emerging 21st century economy. Factors such as the character of leadership and trust evident in the organization, the relative influence of expertise over "position power," the level of connectivity between work groups and people allowing for the meaningful exchange and flow of information, the amount of cultural and cognitive diversity among agents in the work system, and the degree to which anxiety and stress are contained to positively impact performance levels are included in the assessment. The diagnostic tool is outlined and a case study described where the tool is used to identify appropriate interventions in different organizations that are attempting to adapt to their changing market places. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Solut Grp, Long Beach, CA 90802 USA. RP Vicenzi, R, Solut Grp, 110 W Ocean Blvd,Suite F, Long Beach, CA 90802 USA. CR ARTHUR B, 1990, SCI AM FEB, P92 BOJE D, 1996, POST MODERN MANAGEME CAPRA F, 1996, WEB LIFE NEW SCI UND CASTI JL, 1994, COMPLEXIFICATION EXP COHEN MD, 1974, ADMIN SCI QUART, V17, P1 COLLINS JC, 1994, BUILT LAST SUCCESSFU COVEY SR, 1990, PRINCIPLE CENTERED L DRUCKER P, 1988, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN EDVISSON L, 1996, INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL GOFFEE R, 1998, CHARACTER CORPORATIO GOLEMAN D, 1995, EMOTIONAL INTELLIGEN GOLEMAN D, 1998, WORKING EMOTIONAL IN GOODWIN B, 1994, LEOPARD CHANGED HIS HANDY C, 1994, AGE PARADOX KAUFFMAN SA, 1993, ORIGINS ORDER SELF O KAUFFMAN SA, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE SEARCH LEONARDBARTON D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG LEWIN R, 1992, COMPLEXITY LIFE EDGE MARUYAMA M, 1963, AM SCI, V51, P164 MITCHELL WM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING NICOLIS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY PATTERSON K, 1996, BALANCING ACT MASTER PEAT FD, 1991, PHILOS STONE CHAOS S PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P81 PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER CHAOS ROMANELLI E, 1994, ACAD MANAGE J, V37, P1141 SENGE P, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE SIFONIS JG, 1996, CORPORATION TIGHTROP STACEY RD, 1992, MANAGING UNKNOWABLE STACEY RD, 1996, COMPLEXITY CREATIVIT WHEATLEY MJ, 1992, LEADERSHIP NEW SCI L WOODWARD H, 1994, NAVIGATING CHANGE NR 32 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 2000 VL 64 IS 1 BP 101 EP 113 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 333MM UT ISI:000088133900009 ER PT J AU Jung, TY La Rovere, EL Gaj, H Shukla, PR Zhou, DD TI Structural changes in developing countries and their implication for energy-related CO2 emissions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The concept of "structural shifts" has various meanings. In this study, we discuss structural shifts as they relate to the issue of climate change. The concept of "Sustainable Development" is emerging as one of the major challenges for economic development. Although the 20th century has generally been recognized as the era of "competition of ideologies," it is widely believed that the new international economic order of the 21st century will emerge under the paradigm of sustainable development. In this sense, structural shifts may be redefined for both developed and developing countries. To envisage shifts in the next century, several key driving forces must be considered. First is the utilization of the natural endowments of a country, including climate and natural resources. Second is the size of land and population, population growth trends, and population composition. Patterns of urbanization, economic, and industrial structures, technological diffusion, and institutional and legal mechanisms are closely related to the patterns and strategies for economic development in each country as part of the new international economic order. We assess the dynamics of structural shifts through the interaction of all these driving forces. This paper examines historical development patterns and common features of developed countries to analyze both developed and developing countries' future adaptation processes to the new global concerns of climate change. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, COPPE, BR-21941 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. FEWE, Polish Fdn Energy Efficiency, Warsaw, Poland. Indian Inst Management, Amadabad, India. Chinese Acad Sci, State Planning Commiss, Energy Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China. CR *APERC, 1997, FUT EN TRENDS AS PAC *APERC, 1998, APEC EN DEM SUPPL OU *BECON, 1997, AN EN CONS POT CHIN *IEA, 1996, WORLD EN OUTL *UN, 1997, CRIT TRENDS *WORLD BANK, 1996, WORLD DEV REP 1996 P BERRAH NE, 1983, ENERGY DEV TUNNEL EF DARMSTADTER J, 1977, IND SOC USE ENERGY HOURCADE JC, 1999, ESTIMATING COST MITI, V3, P263 HUNTINGTON S, 1996, CLASH CIVILIZATIONS KAYA Y, 1989, IMP CARB DIOX EM GNP KUZNETS SS, 1966, MODERN EC GROWTH RAT KUZNETS SS, 1971, EC GROWTH NATIONS TO LAROVERE EL, 1996, P INT S PROSP INT EN MARTIN JM, 1988, SERIE EC ENERGIE, V4, P9 ZHOU D, 1998, MEDIUM LONG TERM ENE NR 16 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 111 EP 136 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600002 ER PT J AU de Vries, B Bollen, J Bouwman, L den Elzen, M Janssen, M Kreileman, E TI Greenhouse gas emissions in an equity-, environment- and service-oriented world: An IMAGE-based scenario for the 21st century SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; COST; MITIGATION; COUNTRIES; GROWTH; CYCLE AB This article describes a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario for a world that chooses collectively and effectively to pursue service-oriented economic prosperity while taking into account equity and environmental concerns, but without policies directed at mitigating climate change. After peaking around 2050 at 2.2 times the 1990 level of primary energy use, a number of factors lead to a primary energy use rate at the end of the next century that is only 40% higher than the 1990 rate. Among these factors are a stabilizing (and after 2050, declining) population, convergence in economic productivity, dematerialization and technology transfer, and high-tech innovations in energy use and supply. Land use-related emissions show a similar trend. Total CO2 emissions peak at 12.8 CtC/yr around 2040, after which they start falling off. Other GHG emissions show a similar trend. The resulting CO2-equivalent concentration continues to rise to about 600 ppmv in 2100. Present understanding of climate change impacts suggest that even in this world of high-tech innovations in resource use in combination with effective global governance and concern about equity and environment issues, climate policy is needed if mankind is to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Bur Environm Assessment, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Dept Environm Informat Syst, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Soil & Groundwtaer Res Lab, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP de Vries, B, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Bur Environm Assessment, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. CR 1998, SCI AM SPECIAL REPOR *COMM EUR COMM, 1995, EUR EN 2020 SCEN APP *COMM GLOB GOV, 1995, OUR GLOB NEIGHB *CPB, 1992, SCANN FUT *IIASA WEC, 1995, GLOB EN PERSP 2050 B *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *OECD, 1997, NEW GLOB AG CHALL OP *OECD, 1998, EC EFF *TAT EN RES I, 1998, LOOK BACK THINK AH G *UN EC COMM EUR, 1994, PROT 1979 CONV LONG *UNDP, 1998, 1998 UNDP ALCAMO J, 1994, INTEGRATED MODELING ALCAMO J, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994, P338 ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR, P3 ALEXANDER W, 1994, GAIA, V3, P211 ANDERSON D, 1995, CASE SOLAR ENERGY IN ATKINSON G, 1997, MEASURING SUSTAINABL AUDINET P, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P669 BARNEY G, 1993, GLOBAL 2000 REVISITE BARRO RJ, 1991, Q J ECON, V106, P407 BOLLEN JC, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P359 BOSSEL H, 1998, EARTH CROSSROADS PAT DALALCLAYTON M, 1997, SO AFRICA MILLENNIUM DEJONG A, 1991, LONG TERM PROSPECTS DEMOOR A, 1997, SUBSIDIZING UNSUSTAI DEVRIES B, 1995, 461502016 RIVM DEVRIES HJM, 1996, 461502017 RIVM DEVRIES HJM, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL, P83 DEVRIES HJM, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P477 DUCHIN F, 1994, FUTURE ENV FAGAN MN, 1997, ENERGY J, V18, P91 FORESTER T, 1988, MAT REVOLUTION SUPER GALLOPIN G, 1997, 7 STOCKH ENV I GEURTS B, 1993, WORLD SCAND LONG TER GLENN JC, 1997, 1997 STATE FUTURE IM GOLDEMBERG J, 1988, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE W GREGORY K, 1998, LONG TERM GREENHOUSE, V3 GRUBLER A, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P383 GUSTAVSSON L, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P699 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCENARIO HARMAN W, 1993, GLOBAL MIND CHANGE P HIRSCH F, 1977, SOCIAL LIMITS GROWTH HOEKSTRA AJ, 1997, THESIS TU DELFT HUNTINGDON S, 1997, CLASH CIVILIZATION R ISHITANI H, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P587 JESPERSEN J, 1999, IN PRESS EUROPEAN EN, V9 JOHANSSON T, 1989, ELECT EFFICIENT END JOHANSSON T, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY KAPLAN R, 1996, ENDS EARTH KASSLER P, 1994, ENERGY DEV KREILEMAN GJJ, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P231 KROEZE C, 1995, 773001007 RIVM LEACH G, 1979, NEW SCI 0111 LEEMANS R, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P335 LEGGETT JW, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 LOVINS A, 1996 IEV S OS JAP LOVINS A, 1976, FOREIGN AFFAIRS OCT LOVINS A, 1977, SOFT ENERGY PATHS LOVINS AB, 1991, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V16, P433 LUTZ W, 1996, FUTURE POPULATION WO MACKELLAR LW, 1998, POPULATON CLIMATE CH, P89 MADDISON A, 1987, J ECON LIT, V25, P648 MOSIER A, 1998, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V52, P225 MOXNES E, 1989, INTERFUEL SUBSTITUTI NAKICENOVIC N, 1995, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NEUE HU, 1997, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V13, P258 NIESSEN LW, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL, P55 OLIVIER J, 1996, 771060002 NAT I PUBL POSCH M, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P375 RASKIN P, 1998, BENDING CURVE GLOBAL REID WV, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P233 ROBERTS JT, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P191 ROBERTSON J, 1998, TRANSFORMING EC ROGNER HH, 1997, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V22, P217 ROTMANS J, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL SCHMIDHEINY S, 1992, CHANGING COURSE GLOB SINGH T, 1992, FUTURE MANKIND AFFLU SORENSEN B, 1999, LONG TERM SCENARIOS THUROW L, 1996, FUTURE CAPITALISM WILLIAMS RH, 1995, VARIANTS LOW CO2 EMI WORRELL E, 1997, POTENTIAL POLICY IMP ZHANG ZX, 2000, PROMOTING DEV LIMITI NR 84 TC 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 137 EP 174 PG 38 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600003 ER PT J AU Riahi, K Roehrl, RA TI Greenhouse gas emissions in a dynamics-as-usual scenario of economic and energy development SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CARBON AB This article describes two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios covering the period 1990-2100. The first of these, the B2 scenario, is a successful attempt to provide an internally consistent quantification-checked by the computer models Scenario Generator (SG), MESSAGE, MACRO, and MAGICC-of key variables describing a plausible but unremarkable "storyline" that complements the other storylines discussed in this special issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change. In the B2 scenario global carbon emissions from energy use and industrial sources rise from 6.5 gigatons of carbon (GtC) in 1990 to 14.2 GtC in 2100. Primary energy use climbs from 350 exajoules (EJ) to 1360 EJ. The global primary energy structure shifts away from gas and oil (28% in 2100 compared to 55% in 1990) and toward non-fossil energy sources (50% in 2100 compared in 18% in 1990). The share of coal is 22% in 2100, only four percentage points lower than in 1990. Among regions there are significant variations in the primary energy structure. Synthetic liquid fuel production grows to 330 EJ in 2100, driven largely by assumptions about the long-term decline of oil and a continuation in current trends towards increasingly flexible, convenient, and cleaner forms of final energy. On the global level sulfur emissions decline from 63 megatons of sulfur (MtS) in 1990 to 43 MtS in 2100. Radiative forcing grows by approximately 1% per year from 1990 through 2100. The ''best guess" temperature change (assumed climate sensitivity = 2.5 degrees C) associated with this increase in radiative forcing is 2 degrees C in 2100. The B2S550 scenario is a variation of the B2 scenario constrained to stabilize the atmospheric carbon concentration below 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv). Carbon emissions in the B2S550 scenario peak in 2040 at 10.7 GtC, before dropping to 5.5 GtC by 2100. Roughly 40% of the 8.7 GtC difference in 2100 between the B2 scenario and the B2S550 scenario is due to fuel switching, primarily away from coal. 32% is from carbon scrubbing, 14% is due to price-induced energy demand reductions, and 12% is from hydrogen injection into the natural gas system. The B2S550 scenario's radiative forcing in 2100 is 8% lower than that of the B2 scenario, and its best guess temperature change is 0.2 degrees C lower. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. RP Riahi, K, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. CR *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1994 RAD *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UN, 1998, WORLD POP PROJ 2150 AKIMOTO K, 1997, UNPUB SIMPLE CLIMATE DEVRIES B, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P137 EDMONDS J, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P370 GRUBLER A, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P383 GRUBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH JIANG KJ, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P207 LUTZ W, 1996, FUTURE POPULATION WO MADDISON A, MONITORING WORLD EC MARCHETTI C, 1989, INT J HYDROGEN ENERG, V14, P493 MESSNER S, IN PRESS ENERGY MESSNER S, 1991, 9131A INT I APPL SYS MESSNER S, 1995, USERS GUIDE MESSAGE MORITA T, 1997, WORKSH GLOB WARM ISS MORITA T, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P121 NAKICENOVIC N, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P75 NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P95 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY OLIVIER JGJ, 1996, 771060002 RIVM PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSION SCENARIOS I ROGNER HH, 1997, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V22, P217 SANKOVSKI A, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P263 SCHONHART W, 1999, THESIS TU GRAZ AUSTR SCHRATTENHOLZER L, EMF14 INTEGRATED ASS STRUBEGGER M, 1995, 95109 INT I APPL SYS WATSON R, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WIGLEY TML, 1993, TELLUS B, V45, P409 WIGLEY TML, 1997, MODEL ASSESSMENT GRE WIGLEY TR, 1996, NATURE, V359, P240 NR 34 TC 14 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 175 EP 205 PG 31 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600004 ER PT J AU Jiang, KJ Masui, T Morita, T Matsuoka, Y TI Long-term GHG emission scenarios for Asia-Pacific and the world SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Because the Asia-Pacific region has half of the world population and is experiencing very rapid economic growth, it is becoming more important in the global response to the climate change issue. However, the best way to respond to the issue depends largely on the development patterns of this region, and this region has a wide range of development path options. This article analyzes long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios depending on alternative development paths in the developing countries of this region (referred to hereafter as "the Developing Asia-Pacific"), as well as in the world. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model, or AIM, is revised and applied to the quantification of narrative storylines into scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land use change, and industrial production processes are simulated. The results show that GHG emissions from both the Developing Asia-Pacific and the world as a whole would rapidly increase in the first half of the next century, while the emission scenarios would diverge significantly in the latter half. The range of the Developing Asia-Pacific scenarios are wider than those of other regions, and include the possibilities of both keeping emissions low with high economic growth and also causing a rapid increase of emissions with low economic growth. The Developing Asia-Pacific, as well as the rest of the world, have to consider more sophisticated policies to reduce GHGs in the first half of next century, and also must consider a number of robust policies to prepare for the wide range of future development paths. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Natl Inst Environm Studies, Global Warming Response Team, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan. Kyoto Univ, Fac Engn, Sakyo Ku, Kyoto, Japan. CR *AIM PROJ TEAM, 1996, IP9505 AIM *WORLD ENG COUNC, 1993, EN TOM WORLD ALCAMO J, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 BRUCE J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 EDMONDS J, 1983, ENERG ECON, V5, P75 EDMONDS J, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P309 HERTEL T, 1997, GLOBAL TRADE ANAL HIBINO G, 1996, 2 LEVEL MATH PROGRAM HU X, 1996, IP9602 AIM JAING K, 1998, ENV EC POLICY STUDIE, V1, P141 LASHOF DA, 1990, POLICY OPTIONS STABI MATSUMOTO R, 1994, METHANE HYDRATE HUGE MATSUOKA Y, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING CARBO, P117 MORITA T, 1994, GLOBAL CARBON DIOXID MORITA T, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P121 PARIKH JK, 1992, NATURE, V360, P507 QI L, 1995, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V85, P1873 ZHOU F, 1997, P IPCC AS PAC WORKSH NR 18 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 207 EP 229 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600005 ER PT J AU Roehrl, RA Riahi, K TI Technology dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation: A cost assessment SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ENERGY AB This article analyzes long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their mitigation in a family of high economic and energy demand growth scenarios in which technological change unfolds in alternative ''path dependent" directions. Four variants of this family are developed and used as baseline scenarios, for which alternative policy cases leading to stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450, 550, 650, and 750 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by the end of the 21st century are examined. The baseline scenarios share common demographic, economic, and energy demand developments, but explore alternative development pathways of technological change and resource availability. We illustrate the sensitivity of projected future GHG emission levels and resulting global climate change to alternative developments in energy systems technologies. We conclude that uncertainties in technological change are as important for determining future GHG emissions as uncertainties in long-term demographic and economic developments. We also illustrate that differences in costs between alternative baseline scenarios of technological change may be larger than the cost differences of reaching alternative environmental (climate change stabilization) targets. Under our assumptions of high economic and energy demand growth, even in scenarios favoring fossil fuels, the longterm technology portfolio needs to include improvements in zero-carbon technologies and gas-related technologies and infrastructures. We suggest that improvements in these technology options are a robust hedging strategy for an uncertain energy future. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. RP Roehrl, RA, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. CR *FCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *IPCC, 1996, CONTRIBUTION WORKING ALCAMO J, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 ARTHUR B, 1989, ECON J, V99, P106 ARTHUR WB, 1994, INCREASING RETURNS P BARRO RJ, 1995, EC GROWTH BARRO RJ, 1997, DETERMINANTS EC GROW BURNIAUX JM, 1992, 118 OECD DENISON EF, 1985, TRENDS AM EC GROWTH EDMONDS J, 1992, INT J GLOBAL ENERGY, V4, P140 GOUJON A, 1998, POPULATION PROJECTIO GRUBLER A, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P97 GRUBLER A, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P495 GRUBLER A, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P383 GRUBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH GRUBLER A, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P247 KLAASSEN G, 1999, COMMUNICATION LUTZ W, 1997, NATURE, V387, P803 MADDISON A, 1993, MONITORING WORLD EC MADDISON D, 1994, INTEGRATIVE ASSESSME, P225 MARCHETTI C, 1979, 79013 INT I APPL SYS MARCHETTI C, 1989, INT J HYDROGEN ENERG, V14, P493 MESSNER S, 1991, 9131A INT I APPL SYS MESSNER S, 1992, ENERGY CONVERSION MA, V33, P763 MESSNER S, 1995, USERS GUIDE MESSAGE MYHRE G, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2715 NAKICENOVIC N, 1993, ENERGY INT J, V18, P400 NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, OPEC REV, V20, P1 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, INT C RUSS OTH CIS C NORDHAUS WD, 1994, INTEGRATIVE ASSESSME, P35 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PARIKH JK, 1992, NATURE, V360, P507 PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSION SCENARIOS I ROGNER HH, 1997, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V22, P217 STEINBERG M, 1996, CARNOL SYSTEM METHAN STRUBEGGER M, 1995, 95109 INT I APPL SYS WATANABE C, 1995, RENEW ENERG, V6, P237 WATANABE C, 1999, TECHN M IIASA TIT CO WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 WIGLEY TML, 1997, MODEL ASSESSMENT GRE YAMADA K, 1992, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V33, P437 NR 42 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 231 EP 261 PG 31 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600006 ER PT J AU Sankovski, A Barbour, W Pepper, W TI Quantification of the IS99 emission scenario storylines using the atmospheric stabilization framework SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In 1997-1999, an international team of scientists and modelers formulated a set of 40 global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios were designed as quantitative interpretations of four distinct scenario storylines that described alternative views on the global and regional demographic, socioeconomic, technological, and environmental development in the 21st century. The Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) was one of the six models selected to develop the scenarios, which are referred to here as IS99 scenarios. The ASF-based (IS99-ASF) results include four GHG emissions scenarios and corresponding changes in the GHG atmospheric concentrations and the global average temperature. The IS99-ASF scenarios were generated by modifying such model inputs as: regional GNP/capita growth; ultimately recoverable fossil fuel resources; supply-side and end-use energy efficiency; the availability of renewable energy resources; and terrestrial carbon sinks. According to the ASF-based analysis, the largest cumulative GHG emissions and climate effects over the next century result from a combination of fast economic growth, a delayed reduction of the energy and carbon intensity of GNP, and an increase of the coal share in the primary energy supply (ASF-A1 scenario). At the same time, a slightly lower GNP growth rate combined with an increased use of renewable energy sources leads to the lowest cumulative GHG emissions and the stabilization of the CO2 atmospheric concentration by 2100 at about 615 ppmv (ASF-B1 scenario). (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 ICF Consulting, Washington, DC 20006 USA. US EPA, Climate Policy & Programs Div, Fairfax, VA USA. RP Sankovski, A, ICF Consulting, 1850 K St NW,Suite 1000, Washington, DC 20006 USA. CR *EPA, 1990, POL OPT STAB GLOB CL *IPCC, 1990, EM SCEN PREP RESP ST *US DEP EN, 1999, INT EN OUTL 1999 GREGORY K, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P171 HOUGHTON J, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 MADDISON A, 1995, MONITORING WORLD EC NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSION SCENARIOS I PEPPER W, 1998, ENV SCI POLICY, V1, P289 ROGNER HH, 1997, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V22, P217 NR 11 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 263 EP 287 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600007 ER PT J AU Mori, S TI The development of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using an extension of the MARIA model for the assessment of resource and energy technologies SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article describes an extended version of an integrated assessment model called MARIA (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation) and how it was applied to develop global and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The model has been developed to assess the potential contribution of fossil, biomass, nuclear, and other energy technologies and land use change to future GHG emissions. It also incorporates a simple carbon cycle and climate change model. Other extensions of MARIA include a higher degree of geographical disaggregation into eight world regions and a more detailed nuclear fuel cycle. The article describes how the model was used to develop GHG emission scenarios based on narrative storylines and to assess mitigation srategies that would lead to the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. The results indicate that zero-carbon technologies such as fast breeder reactors and carbon sequestration technologies can make a significant contribution toward emissions mitigation, especially when drastic reductions are envisaged. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Sci Univ Tokyo, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Ind Adm, Noda, Chiba 2788510, Japan. RP Mori, S, Sci Univ Tokyo, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Ind Adm, Yamasaki 2641, Noda, Chiba 2788510, Japan. CR *FAO, 1995, PROD YB *FAO, 1997, FAO STAT *IPCC, 1995, EC SOC DIM CLIM CHAN *IPCC, 1995, EC SOC DIM CLIM CHAN, CH9 *IPCC, 1998, REG IMP CLIM CHANG A *JAP AT IND FOR IN, 1997, AT POW POCK BOOK *OECD NEA, 1985, EC NUCL FUEL CYCL ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCEANR CROISSON P, 1992, 184 WORLD BANK DUSSES B, 1992, EXTRAINS HOULLUILE B, P1 EDMONDS J, 1983, ENERGY EC APR, P74 EDMONDS JA, IIASA WORKSH INT ASS, P93 ENTING IG, 1994, 31 CSIRO FANKHAUSER S, 1993, P IIASA WORKSH JUN FISCHER G, 1996, POPULATION MOMENTUM, P96 FUJII Y, 1993, THESIS TOKYO U GREGORY K, 1998, MITI J MANNE AS, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN MANNE AS, 1993, IIASA WORKSH INT ASS MEADOWS HG, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEADOWS HG, 1992, BEYOND LIMITS MORI S, 1995, PROGR NUCL ENERGY, V29, P135 MORI S, 1999, INT J GLOBAL ENERGY, V11, P1 NEGISHI T, 1972, GEN EQUILIBRIUM THEO NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PECK SC, 1992, INT WORKSH COSTS IMP ROGNER HH, 1997, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V22, P217 SHIBATA K, 1981, BIOMASS PRODUCTION T SUGIYAMA H, 1994, Y95005 CRIEPI TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P63 WEYANT JP, 1999, ENERGY J WIGLEY TML, 1994, TELLUS B, V46, P378 NR 33 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 289 EP 311 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600008 ER PT J AU Fenhann, J TI Industrial non-energy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FUTURE AB In this article we project emissions of three groups of greenhouse gases-perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)-through the year 2100. These gases were added to the gases CO2, CH4 and N2O under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The emission projections are based on the projections for population and GDP, as well as the qualitative descriptions of the four storylines (A1, A2, B1, and B2) developed within an international, interdisciplinary effort to formulate new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios reported in this issue. To cover industrial non-energy, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, emission projections of N2O from the production of adipic acid were also calculated. Emission trajectories for CFCs, HCFCs, halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform and methyl bromide were included by directly using the Montreal Protocol scenario (A3) from the 1998 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion. There are three main ways of estimating the future trends for the emissions of the greenhouse gases discussed in this article: the increases could be linear, they could follow an S-curve, or they could be exponential, proportional to GDP development. This article refers to existing studies using these methods and integrates them, The result of the calculations shows that the total emission range for the industrial non-energy, non-CO2 greenhouse gases is within 0.5-1.3 GtC in the period 2010-2100, when total emissions of CFCs and HCFCs are low. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Collaborating Ctr Energy & Environm, UNEP, Riso, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. RP Fenhann, J, Collaborating Ctr Energy & Environm, UNEP, Riso, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. CR *AFEAS, 1998, PROD SAL ATM REL FLU *EUR COMM, 1997, EST EUR UN FLUOR EM *IPCC, 1997, REV GUID NAT GREENH *SCI POL SERV INC, 1997, SAL SULPH HEX SF6 EN *SRES, 1998, OP PROC *UK DEP ENV, 1996, UK US EM SEL HAL CFC *US GEOL SURV, 1998, MIN COMM INF *WHIT HOUS, 1997, CLIM CHANG ACT PLAN *WMO UNEP, 1998, SCI ASS OZ DEPL 1998 *WMO UNEP, 1999, P JOINT IPCC TEAP EX *WORLD BUR MET STA, 1993, WORLD MET STAT YB ASHFORD P, 1999, JOINT IPCC TEAP EXP DAVIS DD, 1991, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V1 HAMMITT JK, 1987, NATURE, V330, P711 HARNISCH J, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P295 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, 2 IPCC KROEZE C, 1992, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V112, P291 KROEZE C, 1995, 773001007 RIVM MAISS M, 1996, ATMOS ENVIRON, V30, P1621 MCCULLOCH A, 1994, ATMOS ENVIRON, V28, P2567 MCCULLOCH A, 1995, ENVIRON INT, V21, P353 MCCULLOCH A, 1998, ATMOS ENVIRON, V32, P1571 MIDGLEY PM, 1999, HDB ENV CHEM E, V4 ORAM DE, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P35 PREISEGGER E, 1999, JOINT IPCC TEAP EXP STEVENS WR, 1993, ABATEMENT N2O EMISSI STOREY M, 1996, 8 UNFCCC VICTOR DG, 1998, MODEL ESTIMATING FUT, P33 WESTON RE, 1996, ATMOS ENVIRON, V30, P2901 NR 29 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 313 EP 334 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600009 ER PT J AU Kram, T Morita, T Riahi, K Roehrl, RA Van Rooijen, S Sankovski, A De Vries, B TI Global and regional greenhouse gas emissions scenarios SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ASIA; NOX; CO2 AB This article presents a set of 30 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios developed by six modeling teams. The scenarios describe trajectories up to 2100 by four world regions. Today the distribution of both income and GHG emissions is very unbalanced between various world regions. Furthermore, the relative importance of individual gases and sources of emission differ from region to region. A feature shared by all scenarios is higher growth rates of population, income and GHG emissions in the current developing countries (DEV) than in industrialized countries (IND). Today the DEV regions account for about 46% of all emissions, but by 2100 no less they contribute 67-76% of the global total. By that same year the total income generated in the DEV regions reaches 58-71% from only 16% in 1990. As a result of these two developments, GHG emissions per unit of income converge over time. Carbon emitted from fossil fuel use remains the primary source of GHG emissions over the next century; by 2100 CO2 makes up 70 to 80% of total GHG emissions. The role of sulfur warrants special attention. Contrary to many earlier studies, all scenarios presented here assume that sulfur emissions are controlled in all regions sooner or later, and to various degrees. As sulfur plays a role in cooling of the atmosphere through formation of sulfate aerosols, a local effect, this abatement constitutes a relative local warming effect. The decrease of sulfur emissions is already observed the IND regions, and is expected also in ASIA after an initial rise. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Netherlands Energy Res Fdn, ECN, NL-1755 ZG Petten, Netherlands. Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. ICF Kaiser Int, Washington, DC USA. RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Kram, T, Netherlands Energy Res Fdn, ECN, POB 1, NL-1755 ZG Petten, Netherlands. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 2000 VL 63 IS 2-3 BP 335 EP 371 PG 37 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 321AK UT ISI:000087432600010 ER PT J AU Dekimpe, MG Parker, PM Sarvary, M TI "Globalization": Modeling technology adoption timing across countries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MULTINATIONAL DIFFUSION PATTERNS; INNOVATION DIFFUSION; DETERMINANTS; POPULATION; DURATION AB We study global adoption processes where the units of observation are countries which sequentially adopt a particular innovation. Our goal is to provide a better understanding of how exogenous and endogenous country characteristics affect this diffusion process. We develop a general model of global adoption processes that allows researchers to test extant theories of cross-country adoption, and illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184 countries. In our application, we find support for the existence of a global "demonstration effect": as the number of countries adopting the technology becomes larger, the likelihood of "similar" countries following their example increases. We also find that isolated economies lag in adopting technologies, and that countries with homogenous and concentrated populations, and with a high level of economic development are, on average, earlier adopters. Finally, our model supports the managerial intuition that, eventually, all countries will adopt cellular technology. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Business, Boston, MA 02163 USA. Catholic Univ Louvain, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium. INSEAD, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. RP Sarvary, M, Harvard Univ, Sch Business, Boston, MA 02163 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2000 VL 63 IS 1 BP 25 EP 42 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 283HR UT ISI:000085270800002 ER PT J AU Kovoor-Misra, S Zammuto, RF Mitroff, II TI Crisis preparation in organizations: Prescription versus reality SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TOP MANAGEMENT; SENSEMAKING; COLLAPSE; DISASTER; TEAM AB This article presents the results of an inductive study of nine organizations' preparations for major crises. The findings indicate that there is a discrepancy between the prescriptive literature on crisis preparation and how organizations actually prepare for crises, and that a number of contextual factors determine which types of crises are prepared for and the form that those preparations take. Propositions about the role of contextual factors in explaining the divergence between the prescriptive literature and these organizations' actions are presented. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Colorado, Coll Business & Adm, Denver, CO 80217 USA. RP Kovoor-Misra, S, Univ Colorado, Coll Business & Adm, Campus Box 165,POB 173364, Denver, CO 80217 USA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2000 VL 63 IS 1 BP 43 EP 62 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 283HR UT ISI:000085270800003 ER PT J AU Menanteau, P TI Learning from variety and competition between technological options for generating photovoltaic electricity SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB PV technology is of major interest for the energy sector because it offers the possibility of generating renewable electricity, using a resource that is widely available throughout the world, and without producing noticeable environmental externalities. The performance of the technology has progressed significantly over the last 20 years, thanks to learning effects, which have enabled PV diffusion to be extended beyond the initial niche markets. If this learning process can be maintained, PV may become an efficient technology for electricity generation and contribute to a sustainable world energy supply. Different technologies are competing in the production of PV cells. This paper analyses the mechanisms whereby one technology (crystalline silicon) has become established in a dominant position by using a knowledge base shared with the electronic components industry. The increasing diffusion of PV applications in new market segments as a result of public policies is then discussed, along with the resulting reinforcing mechanisms in favor of silicon technology. Given the limited progress margins remaining on this technological trajectory, a discussion is finally presented of new, more promising PV technologies and their possibilities for overcoming this lock-in situation and extending the current PV learning process. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Grenoble, Inst Econ & Polit Energie, Natl Sci Res Ctr, CNRS, F-38040 Grenoble 9, France. RP Menanteau, P, Univ Grenoble, Inst Econ & Polit Energie, Natl Sci Res Ctr, CNRS, BP 47, F-38040 Grenoble 9, France. CR *ETSU, 1994, ASS REN EN UK *EUR PV IND ASS, 1996, PHOT 2010 *WORLD BUS INC, 1997, STUD PV MARK RUR EL AHMED K, 1994, 240 WORLD BANK ARTHUR WB, 1989, EC J, V99 AYRES RU, 1992, TECHNOVATION, V12, P465 BLOSS WH, 1993, PHOTOVOLTAICS SOLAR CARLSON DE, 1990, P IEA ENEL C PHOT SY DRACKER R, 1996, ANN REV ENERGY ENV FORAY D, 1994, REV EC IND FRANKL P, 1995, PHOTOVOLTAICS GRUBB M, 1997, RENEWABLE ENERGY STR, V2 HOURCADE JC, 1987, ENERGIE INT 1987 198 KELLY H, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU KEMP R, 1994, FUTURES, V26 MARTIN PE, 1998, SYSTEMES SOLAIRE JAN NEIJ L, 1997, ENERG POLICY, V23, P1099 PALZ W, 1993, SOLAR EUROPE OCT RICAUD A, 1997, PHOTOPILES SOLAIRES RODOT M, 1995, SYSTEMES SOLAIRE SEP UTTERBACK JM, 1975, OMEGA, V3 WILLINGER M, 1993, REV EC IND, P7 NR 22 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2000 VL 63 IS 1 BP 63 EP 80 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 283HR UT ISI:000085270800004 ER PT J AU Dransfeld, H Pemberton, J Jacobs, G TI Quantifying weighted expert opinion: The future of interactive television and retailing SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SCENARIOS; TV AB This core of this paper is a description and discussion of a way of quantifying data gathered using a Delphi survey, in this case concerned with attempting to predict the future of interactive television for retailing in the luxury and performance car industry. The analysis of the data was based, not on the standard cross-impact matrix approach to handling quantifiable information within Delphi surveys, but on a novel alternative method which allows the data to be expressed in terms of probabilities (the basic equations are probability statements using binomial probabilities and Bayes's formula) and takes into account, in a well-founded way, different levels of respondents' expertise. The method owes something to the work of D.V. Lindley. To the knowledge of the authors of this paper, and despite its suitability for the purpose, Lindley's approach to quantifying weighted expert opinions has never before been used in conjunction with a Delphi survey. The analysis for an example question from the questionnaire used in the survey is given in detail, and the results of four other questions are discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Wales, European Business Management Sch, Swansea SA2 8PP, W Glam, Wales. RP Jacobs, G, Univ Wales, European Business Management Sch, Singleton Pk, Swansea SA2 8PP, W Glam, Wales. CR CAWKELL T, 1997, J INFORM SCI, V23, P187 GODET M, 1982, J FORECASTING, V1, P293 GORDON TJ, 1976, TECHNOLOGIES FORECAS, V9, P191 GRUPP H, 1995, DELPHI REPORT, P47 GUPTA UG, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P185 HAGUE P, 1993, QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN, P26 HELMER O, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P116 JACOBS G, 1998, LONG RANGE PLANN, V31, P396 LEE B, 1995, J ADVERTISING RES, V35, P9 LINDLEY D, 1983, OPER RES, V31, P866 LINDLEY DV, 1982, J ROY STAT SOC A GEN, V145, P117 LINDLEY DV, 1987, OPER RES, V35, P716 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD, P229 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1989, FORECASTING METHODS, P328 MARTINO J, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P18 MERCER D, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V55, P155 MILES I, 1997, FUTURES, V29, P769 MURRY JW, 1995, REV HIGH EDUC, V18, P423 RAITT D, 1995, ELECTRON LIBR, V13, P99 RHODES CT, 1998, CLIN RES REGUL AFF, V15, P1 SCHNAARS SP, 1987, LONG RANGE PLANN, V20, P105 WRIGHT G, 1992, ORGAN BEHAV HUM, V51, P344 WRIGHT G, 1996, INT J FORECASTING, V12, P1 NR 23 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2000 VL 63 IS 1 BP 81 EP 90 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 283HR UT ISI:000085270800005 ER PT J AU Storojouk, OA TI A model of product cost modification with reduced development periods SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A modifiable model of a new product cost with a reduced development period is considered in comparison with a traditional one. It allows estimation of the additional spending and labor. The model takes in the performance of those engaged in R&D in the process of their adjustment to a new activity. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Storojouk, OA, 15-3-26 Ivana Babushkina St, Moscow 117292, Russia. CR ALTSHULLER GS, 1979, TVORCHESTVO KAK TOCH, P175 GORDON WJJ, 1961, SYNECTICS DEV CREATI, V11, P179 HOLLANDER GL, 1972, COMPUTER DECISIONS, V11 JANTSCH E, 1967, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARTINO JP, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 2000 VL 63 IS 1 BP 91 EP 100 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 283HR UT ISI:000085270800006 ER PT J AU Podobnik, B TI Toward a sustainable energy regime: A long-wave interpretation of global energy shifts SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY AB This analysis adopts a long-wave perspective in order to shed light on the dynamics that led to a global shift away from primary reliance on coal and towards over-reliance on petroleum. It is argued that the interaction of three systemic dynamics, those of geopolitical rivalry, commercial competition, and social unrest, undermined the nineteenth-century international coal regime and paved the way fur the consolidation of an international petroleum system in the twentieth century. By examining contemporary patterns of state and private investments in a cluster of new energy technologies. as well as the growing influence of environmental regulations, it is argued that similar dynamics are beginning to favor a shift rewards a new, more sustainable energy regime in the coming century. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Lewis & Clark Coll, Dept Sociol, Portland, OR 97219 USA. RP Podobnik, B, Lewis & Clark Coll, Dept Sociol, Portland, OR 97219 USA. CR *GREAT BRIT CENTR, 1996, ANN STAT B *INT EN AG, 1995, STRAT VAL FOSS FUELS *INT EN AG, 1996, WORLD EN OUTL *INT EN AG, 1997, IEA EN TECHN R D STA *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *OECD IEA, 1996, EN POL IEA COUNTR *OECD IEA, 1997, EN CLIM CHANG *OECD IEA, 1997, EN TECHN 21 CENT *OECD IEA, 1997, ENH MARK DEPL EN TEC *OECD, 1997, REF EN TRANSP SUBS E *UN, EN STAT YB *US BUR LAB STAT, AN WORK STOPP *US DEP COMM, STAT ABSTR US *US EN INF ADM, 1992, FED EN SUBS DIR IND *US EN INF ADM, 1997, FIN STAT MAJ US INV *US EN INF ADM, 1997, IMP ENV COMPL COSTS *US EN INF ADM, 1997, REN EN ANN 1996 *US EN INF ADM, 1998, INT EN OUTL 1998 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, IND TECHN ENV COMP C *WORLD BANK, 1995, MON ENV PROGR REP WO *WORLD BANK, 1997, WORLD DEV IND *WORLD EN COUNC, 1994, NEW REN EN RES GUID *WORLD EN COUNC, 1995, SURV EN RES, P48 *WORLD EN COUNC, 1996, WORLD ENERGY COU DEC, P43 AHMED K, 1994, RENEWABLE ENERGY TEC ANDERSON D, 1995, CASE SOLAR ENERGY IN ANDERSON D, 1996, ENERGY CRISIS UNRESO BAHGAT G, 1995, SECUR DIALOGUE, V26, P317 BERNOW S, 1997, ECOLOGICAL TAX REFOR BERNSTEIN E, 1940, AM ECON REV, V30, P524 BISHOP D, 1972, RAILWAYS WAR 1918 BLOOMFIELD A, 1968, PATTERNS FLUCTUATION BOWMAN J, 1989, CAPITALIST COLLECTIV BRADSHER K, 1998, NY TIMES 0105, A1 BROMLEY S, 1991, AM HEGEMONY WORLD OI BURKE M, 1997, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V31, P84 CHANDLER A, 1990, SCALE SCOPE DYNAMICS CHURCH R, 1986, HIST BRIT COAL IND, V3 CRIQUI P, 1994, ENERGY STUDIES REV, V6, P34 CUSHMAN JH, 1997, NY TIMES 0626, A1 DIX K, 1988, WHATS COAL MINER DO ETEMAD B, 1991, WORLD ENERGY PRODUCT FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC FREEMAN C, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P1019 FREY C, 1995, METHOD FEDERAL ENERG GOLDSTEIN J, 1988, LONG CYCLES PROSPERI GORDON D, 1980, PROCESSES WORLD SYST GRIFFITHS D, 1997, STREAM SEA 2 CENTURI GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC GRUBLER A, 1991, REVIEW, V14, P313 HEADRICK D, 1981, TOOLS EMPIRE TECHNOL IKENBERRY J, 1988, REASONS STATE OIL PO KEMP R, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P1023 KEOHANE R, 1984, HEGEMONY COOPERATION KEPPLER J, 1996, ENERGY MARKET REFORM KHADDURI W, 1996, SECUR DIALOGUE, V27, P155 KOBRIN SJ, 1984, INT STUD QUART, V28, P329 KONDRATIEFF N, 1925, REV ECON STAT, V17, P105 KRASNER S, 1978, DEFENDING NATL INTER MACKENZIE J, 1997, CLIMATE PROTECTION N, P27 MADDISON A, 1995, MONITORING WORLD EC MANDEL E, 1980, LONG WAVES CAPITALIS MARTIN JM, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P81 MAYNTZ R, 1988, DEV LARGE TECHNICAL MCNEILL W, 1982, PURSUIT POWER TECHNO MICHAELIS L, 1996, REFORMING COAL ELECT MILNER S, 1991, CENTURY UK STRIKE AC MITCHELL B, 1984, EC DEV BRIT COAL IND MODELSKI G, 1996, LEADING SECTORS WORL MOORE T, 1997, EPRI J, V22, P6 MULLER F, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P13 MUROTA Y, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P89 MYERSON A, 1998, NY TIMES 1022, A1 NOWELL G, 1994, MERCANTILE STATES WO PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P357 POLLARD S, 1979, BRIT SHIPBUILDING IN PORTER ME, 1991, SCI AM APR, P168 PRESTON J, 1997, THINKING ECOLOGICALL RUDIG W, 1990, ANTINUCLEAR MOVEMENT SCHLOSS M, 1993, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V5, P214 SCHMIDHEINY S, 1996, FINANCING CHANGE FIN SCHUMPETER J, 1949, THEORY EC DEV INQUIR SMIL V, 1994, ENERGY WORLD HIST STIVERS W, 1982, SUPREMACY OIL IRAQ T SUZUKI H, 1991, TECHNOLOGY RESPONSES TURNER L, 1983, OIL COMPANIES INT SY VERNON R, 1983, 2 HUNGRY GIANTS US J WALD M, 1997, NY TIMES 1021, A14 WEINBERG C, 1994, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENER NR 89 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 62 IS 3 BP 155 EP 172 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 262ZE UT ISI:000084097500001 ER PT J AU Modis, T TI Technological forecasting at the stock market SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Under the assumption that competition (Darwinian in nature) reigns in the stock market, we analyze the behavior of company stocks as if they were species competing for investors' resources. The approach requires the study of dollar values and share volumes, daily exchanged in the stock market, via logistic growth functions. These two variables, in contrast to prices, obey the law of natural growth in competition, which like every natural law, is endowed with predictability. A number of unexpected insights about the stock marker emerge. The forecasts indicate that whereas there is no looming crash in the near future, no significant growth should be expected either. The DJIA is to hover around 9500 depicting large erratic excursions above and below this level for a few years. The use of Volterra-Lotka equations demonstrates that the 1987 crash altered the stock-bond interaction from a symbiotic to a predator-prey relationship with stocks acting as predators. This research work has lead to the publication of the book An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street by T. Modis, (Growth Dynamics, Geneva, 1999). (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Growth Dynam, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Modis, T, Growth Dynam, Rue Beau Site 2, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. CR 1998, ECONOMIST 1114, P93 BREALEY R, 1981, PRINCIPLES CORPORATE LESLIE PH, 1958, BIOMETRIKA, V45, P16 LOTKA AJ, 1925, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MARCHETTI C, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P373 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS MODIS T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P63 MODIS T, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P107 MODIS T, 1998, CONQUERING UNCERTAIN ODUM E, 1971, FUNDAMENTALS ECOLOGY OHIGGINS M, 1991, BEATING DOW PIELOU EC, 1969, INTRO MATH ECOLOGY PISTORIUS CWI, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V50, P133 SMITALOVA K, 1991, MATH TREATMENT DYNAM VERHULST PF, 1945, NOUVEAUX MEMOIRES AC, V18, P1 VOLTERRA V, 1931, LECONS THEORIE MATH WILLIAMSON M, 1972, ANAL BIOL POPULATION NR 17 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 62 IS 3 BP 173 EP 202 PG 30 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 262ZE UT ISI:000084097500002 ER PT J AU Christodoulou, K Jensen, K Vlahos, K TI Using object-oriented simulation to explore substitution between technologies: An application to the UK mobile telecommunications industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SYSTEM; MODEL AB This paper discusses how an object-oriented simulation model can explore substitution processes in a competitive market. We show how a conceptual model of the UK mobile telecommunications industry, based on entities and their relationships, can be translated into a dynamic simulation model. The model focuses on two conflicting pressures, namely, the need to migrate customers from the analogue to the digital network versus the need to invest in expanding coverage and capacity of the digital network. The model allows an exploration of determinants of customer choice and how these can be affected by the strategies followed. Thus, management decision variables are endogenous to the model and there are feedback mechanisms between decisions and the migration speed. We examine different strategies for migrating customers from analogue to digital mobile networks and discuss the benefit of using such models. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 City Univ London, Sch Business, Dept Management Syst & Informat, London EC1V 0HB, England. BT Labs, Bussiness Modelling Team, Ipswich IP5 7RE, Suffolk, England. London Business Sch, London NW1 4SA, England. RP Christodoulou, K, City Univ London, Sch Business, Dept Management Syst & Informat, Northampton Sq, London EC1V 0HB, England. CR ALLEN PM, 1987, EUR J OPER RES, V30, P147 BARRON A, 1996, 1996 INT SYST DYN C, P55 BOOCH G, 1994, OBJECT ORIENTED ANAL BUI T, 1996, DECIS SUPPORT SYST, V17, P83 CASTI J, 1997, WOULD BE WORLDS SIMU CHRISTODOULOU K, 1997, PHONE WARS UK MOBILE CHU TP, 1997, IEEE T VEH TECHNOL, V46, P41 COX B, 1991, OBJECT ORIENTED PROG FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GINSBERG A, 1997, LONG RANGE PLANN, V30, P125 GRANT RM, 1995, CONT STRATEGY ANAL HARTANTO F, 1996, COMPUT ELECTR ENG, V22, P367 LOTKA A, 1925, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MAIER F, 1996 INT SYST DYN C, P345 MEYER B, 1997, OBJECT ORIENTED SOFT MORECROFT JD, 1994, MODELING LEARNING OR NINIOS P, 1994, THESIS U LONDON NINIOS P, 1995, DECIS SUPPORT SYST, V15, P229 NINIOS P, 1995, EUR J OPER RES, V81, P521 NORTON JA, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1069 PORTER M, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY TAYLOR L, 1994, TELECOMMUNICATIONS D VLAHOS K, 1993, APPL STOCHASTIC MODE, P1032 VLAHOS K, 1998, J OPER RES SOC, V49, P187 VOLTERRA V, 1931, LECONS THEORIE MATH VRETTOS A, 1994, ELECTRON LETT, V30, P1374 ZEIGLER BP, 1984, MULTIFACETTED MODELL NR 27 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 62 IS 3 BP 203 EP 217 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 262ZE UT ISI:000084097500003 ER PT J AU Sharif, N TI Strategic role of technological self-reliance in development management SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES; FUTURE AB Thanks to technological advancements. every society - throughout the world - is now better off than before. Although this is true for all societies considered in an aggregate manner, within each society and between different societies, the relative gaps in prosperity are increasing. Reversing these gaps is the most important challenge for human development in the twenty-first century. A thorough scrutiny of the causes for the observed negative trends would indicate that technological gap is at the root of all. Success stories clearly tell us that technological capacity building is the best foundation for any meaningful economic growth that leads to a higher standard of living and greater prosperity for the citizens of a country. Moreover, technology-based creative problem solving and the ability to manage technological innovation are essential prerequisites for the success of contemporary business executives operating in the competitive globalized market environment. Paying attention to these lessons is the call of the day for any developing country government as well as for the business executives of that country. This article discusses the strategic role of technological self-reliance in development management, in terms of what we have learned so Ear and where we should be going, so as to reverse the widening technological capacity gap between the developed and developing countries. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Asian Inst Technol, Sch Management, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. RP Sharif, N, Asian Inst Technol, Sch Management, POB 4, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. CR *AS DEV BANK, 1995, IMPL DEV AS *PMI, 1996, GUID PROJ MAN BOD KN *UNDP, 1997, UN DEV PROGR HUM DEV *WORLD BANK, 1997, STAT CHANG WORLD *WORLD BANK, 1999, KNOWL DEV BROHMAN J, 1996, POPULAR DEV RETHINKI BURGELMAN RA, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT COVEY SR, 1989, 7 HABITS HIGHLY EFFE GLENN JC, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P203 GLENN JC, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P97 HAMEL G, 1994, HARVARD BUS REV, V72, P122 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY MARQUARDT M, 1996, BUILDING LEARNING OR NAISBITT J, 1990, MEGATRENDS 2000 PETERS T, 1992, LIBERATION MANAGEMEN PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI SHARIF MN, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P1 SHARIF MN, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P201 SHARIF MN, 1989, TECHNOLOGY DEV CAN Y SHARIF MN, 1995, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN, V2, P113 SHARIF MN, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P309 SHARIF N, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P151 SHARIF N, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V54, P37 NR 24 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 62 IS 3 BP 219 EP 238 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 262ZE UT ISI:000084097500004 ER PT J AU Tidd, J Brocklehurst, M TI Routes to technological learning and development: An assessment of Malaysia's innovation policy and performance SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID COMPETITION AB In this article we review the range of policy options pursued by national governments for generating innovation within domestic firms. Against this context we examine Malaysia's formal policies for technology acquisition and their implementation. Our analysis draws on an assessment of formal government policy, interviews at public organisations responsible for the implementation of policy, and private domestic and transnational firms, which are active in the target sectors. In total, thirty private and public organisations were visited. It is clear that the Malaysian government has developed a coherent set of policies, which aim to move the economy from its current focus on manufacturing to higher value-added activities such as research and development (R&D), marketing, and distribution. However, we found little evidence of the implementation of such aspirations. In almost all cases transnational companies have confined Malaysian subsidiaries to manufacturing activities, albeit in "high-technology" sectors, and have located development and marketing functions overseas. In fact, growth of value-added and capital intensity have been lower in those sectors dominated by FDI, than in other sectors. Nevertheless, there are isolated cases of indigenous companies which have been able to exploit joint ventures as an opportunity for learning from overseas companies, and this approach appears to offer greater opportunity for achieving the Malaysian government's objectives, (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ London, Imperial Coll, Sch Management, London SW7 2PG, England. RP Tidd, J, Univ London, Imperial Coll, Sch Management, 53 Princes Gate,Exhibit Rd, London SW7 2PG, England. CR 1991, SCI WATCH, V2, P2 *MIDA, 1996, INV MAL *MIDA, 1997, INV MAL *NPC, 1996, PROD REP 1995 *PRIM MIN DEP EC P, 1996, 7 MAL PLAN 1996 2000 ALBACH H, 1996, EC HIGH TECHNOLOGY C ALBERT M, 1992, CAPITALISM CAPITALIS ARUNDEL A, 1995, INNOVATION STRATEGIE ATAUHENEGIMA K, 1993, R&D MANAGE, V23, P327 BELL M, 1995, AIMING 2020 DEMAND D BROCKLEHURST M, 1997, ENCY MANAGEMENT CANTWELL J, 1992, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN CARLSSON B, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P235 DUNNING J, 1980, J INT BUS STUD, V1, P9 EDMONDSON A, 1996, ORG LEARNING COMPETI, P17 FRANKO LG, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V10, P449 HAMEL G, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P83 HICKS D, 1995, IND CORP CHANGE, V4, P401 HOBDAY M, 1995, INNOVATION E ASIA JEGATHESAN J, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V13, P196 LANDAU R, 1992, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA LANDES D, 1998, WEALTH POVERTY NATIO LAURSEN K, IN PRESS RES POLICY MACKIE JAC, 1992, ASIAN PACIFIC EC LIT, V6, P41 NARIN F, 1992, CHI RES, V1 NATHAN R, 1996, NATURE, V383, P7 NELSON R, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST NEWTON K, 1992, ED TRAINING CANADA NISHIGUCHI T, 1994, STRATEGIC IND SOURCI PATEL P, 1994, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V3, P77 PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI PRAIS S, 1993, 52 NAT I EC SOC RES SUZUKI J, 1997, JAPAN UPDATE, V2, P22 TIDD J, 1993, EUROPEAN BUSINESS J, V3, P87 TIDD J, 1995, CURRENT POLITICS EC, V4, P241 TIDD J, 1996, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V4, P155 TIDD J, 1997, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V1, P1 TIDD J, 1997, MANAGING INNOVATION TIDD J, 1997, R&D MANAGE, V27, P359 TIDD J, 1999, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT VERNON R, 1966, Q J ECON, V80, P190 VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION NR 42 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1999 VL 62 IS 3 BP 239 EP 257 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 262ZE UT ISI:000084097500005 ER PT J AU Linstone, HA TI TFSC: 1969-1999 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Portland State Univ, Syst Sci PhD Program, Portland, OR 97207 USA. RP Linstone, HA, Portland State Univ, Syst Sci PhD Program, POB 751, Portland, OR 97207 USA. CR ALLISON GT, 1971, ESSENCE DECISION EXP AUSUBEL J, 1998, COSMOS 1998, V8, P1 BELL PC, 1998, OR MS TODAY DEC, P24 BERLINSKI D, 1976, SYSTEMS ANAL ESSAY L, P313 CHRISTODOULOU K, IN PRESS USING OBJEC CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGNING INQUIRING DURANT W, 1957, REFORMATION BEGINS, P159 FORRESTER J, 1961, IND DYNAMICS FORRESTER J, 1971, WORLD DYNAMICS FORRSTER J, 1969, URBAN DYNAMICS LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21ST CENTU LINSTONE HA, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH MARTINO J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEADOWS DL, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MENSCH G, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY SPENGLER O, 1991, DECLINE W WHITE L, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P359 NR 17 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 1 EP 8 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700001 ER PT J AU Ayres, RU TI What have we learned? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INSEAD, Dept Econ, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. RP Ayres, RU, INSEAD, Dept Econ, Blvd Constance, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. NR 0 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 9 EP 12 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700002 ER PT J AU Martino, JP TI Thirty years of change and stability SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Martino, JP, 905 S Main Ave, Sidney, OH 45365 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 13 EP 18 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700003 ER PT J AU Porter, AL TI Tech forecasting - An empirical perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY; SYSTEMS; DELPHI; MODELS C1 Georgia Inst Technol, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Porter, AL, Georgia Tech, ISyE, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. CR 1999, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V60, P1 *I PROSP TECHN STU, 1996, EUR17298EN I PROSP T *PRIC WAT GLOB TEC, 1999, TECHN FOR 1999 ALTSHULLER G, 1996, SUDDENLY INVENTOR AP BERRY BJL, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P155 CHAKRAVARTI AK, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P155 GAUSEMEIER J, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P111 ISLAM T, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P49 KELLER P, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P47 KIM SH, 1997, COMPUT IND ENG, V33, P461 KURAWARWALA AA, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V57, P169 LI YL, 1997, KYBERNETES, V26, P596 MARTIN BR, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P37 MEADE N, 1998, MANAGE SCI, V44, P1115 NADLER G, 1999, CREATIVE SOLUTION FI PAUL C, 1998, J MED SCREEN, V5, P53 PHILLIPS F, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P239 PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME PORTER AL, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P237 RIENSTRA SA, 1998, TRANSPORT RES D-TR E, V3, P20 ROUSE WB, 1995, BEST LAID PLANS ROYZEN Z, 1997, PRODUCT INNOVATION U SALOMON I, 1998, TRANSPORT RES C-EMER, V6, P17 SCHUBERT H, 1996, I ENV SCI P ANN TECH, P334 SHIN T, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P125 TERNINKO J, 1998, QFD TRIZ ROBUST DESI TSOURIKOV V, 1997, IEEE SEMI ADV MAN C, P427 WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 WATTS RJ, 1998, COMPETITIVE INTELLIG, V9, P11 NR 29 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 19 EP 28 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700004 ER PT J AU Modis, T TI A second lease on life for technological forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Growth Dynam, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Modis, T, Growth Dynam, Rue Beau Site 2, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. CR BATRA R, 1985, GREAT DEPRESSION 199 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 KONDRATIEFF ND, 1992, GRANDS CYCLES CONJON MARCHETTI C, 1986, FUTURES, V17, P376 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS MODIS T, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P107 MODIS T, 1998, CONQUERING UNCERTAIN MODIS T, 1999, S SHAPED TRAIL WALL NR 8 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 29 EP 32 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700005 ER PT J AU Helmer, O TI The past and future of futures research SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Helmer, O, 26180 Valley View Ave, Carmel, CA 93923 USA. CR HELMER O, 1963, MANAGEMENT SCI HLEMER O, 1972, R27 I FUT, P1 NR 2 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 33 EP 35 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700006 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Boom time in forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Coates & Jarratt Inc, Washington, DC USA. RP Coates, JF, 4455 Connecticut Ave NW,Suite A500, Washington, DC 20008 USA. CR 1999, TFSC, V60 1999, TFSC, V61 LINSTONE H, 1975, DELPHI METHOD NR 3 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 37 EP 40 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700007 ER PT J AU Chacko, GK TI Chief Technology Officers (CTOs) in historic survival decisions of countries and corporations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Putra Malaysia, Joint MIT MGSM Pan Asian Program Management Techn, Malaysian Grad Sch Management, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia. Univ So Calif, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. RP Chacko, GK, Univ Putra Malaysia, Joint MIT MGSM Pan Asian Program Management Techn, Malaysian Grad Sch Management, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia. CR BOORSTIN DJ, 1973, AM DEMOCRATIC EXPERI CHACKO GK, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECO CHACKO GK, 1993, OPERATIONS RES MANAG, V81 CHACKO GK, 1998, TARGETING STRATEGIES CHACKO GK, 1998, TECHNOLOGY MANAGMENT CHACKO GK, 1999, HITECH CTR STRATEGIZ CHURCHILL W, 1949, THEIR FINEST HOUR CHURCHILL WS, 1951, GRAND ALLIANCE CHURCHILL WS, 1969, 2 WORLD WAR CLARK RW, 1971, EINSTEIN LIFE TIMES DESSAUER JH, 1971, MY YEARS XEROX EINSTEINROSEVEL., 1939, COMMUNICATION 0802 GATES B, 1993, PLAYBOY JUL GATES B, 1996, ROAD AHEAD GATES B, 1999, BUSINESS SPEED THOUG KENNEDY JF, 1961, COMMUNICATION 0525 MCGEADY S, 1997, INTERNET SOC, P61 MORTON JA, 1969, R D GAME, P219 MULLER KA, 1987, SCIENCE, V237, P1133 MYHRVOLD, 1993, IEEE T SOFTWARE JUL SIDNEY H, 1964, JF KENNEDY PORTRAIT STROSS RE, 1997, MICROSOFT WAY TAPSCOTT D, 1995, DIGITAL EC DAWN NEW WATSON TJ, 1951, FATHER SON CO WATSON TJ, 1991, FATHER SO CO MY LIFE NR 25 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 41 EP 50 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700008 ER PT J AU Bowonder, B Miyake, T Muralidharan, B TI Predicting the future: Lessons from evolutionary theory SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Adm Staff Coll India, Hyderabad 500082, Andhra Pradesh, India. RP Bowonder, B, Adm Staff Coll India, Bella Vista, Hyderabad 500082, Andhra Pradesh, India. CR AOKI M, 1998, 2 WORLD C I SOC NEW ATTENBOROUGH D, 1986, LIFE EARTH BERGGREN R, 1998, MCKINSEY QLY, V2, P6 BEWONDER B, 1994, WORLD COMPETITION, V16, P19 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 CARR C, 1996, CHOICE CHANGE ORG CH CLARKE A, 1973, PROFILES FUTURE COTTRELL A, 1997, INTERDISCIPL SCI REV, V22, P318 DAWKINS R, 1991, BLIND WATCHMAKER DAWKINS R, 1997, CLIMBING MOUNT IMPRO EDGAR L, 1996, CHAOS ORDER CAPITAL FAHEY L, 1998, INTEGRATING STRATEGY, P22 GOULD SJ, 1990, URCHIN STORM GOULD SJ, 1991, WONDERFUL LIFE HARRINGTON HJ, 1998, CREATIVITY TOOL KIT HEYLIGHEN F, 1996, EVOLUTION COMPLEXITY KLEPPER S, 1997, IND CORP CHANGE, V6, P379 KOTHA S, 1998, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V16, P212 LINSTONE H, 1999, DECISIONMAKING TECHN LINSTONE HA, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P335 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P573 LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY MANDELBROT B, 1997, FRACTALS SCALING FIN MARTIN BR, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI MITROFF II, 1993, UNBOUNDED MIND MOORE JF, 1997, DEATH COMPETITION MORGAN G, 1997, IMAGES ORG NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY POOL R, 1997, ENGINEERING, P59 QUIGLEY F, 1995, VISION SANDERS TI, 1987, STRATEGIC THINKING N SOROS G, 1998, CRISIS GLOBAL CAPITA STEWART L, 1993, CHAOS PREDICTING FUT, P24 TURNER JRG, 1987, PROBABILISTIC REVOLU, V2, P313 NR 34 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 51 EP 62 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700009 ER PT J AU Gordon, HJ TI The prospects for accuracy and completeness in forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CHAOS C1 UN Univ, Amer Council, Millennium Project, Washington, DC USA. RP Gordon, HJ, 23 Sailfish Rd, Vero Beach, FL 32960 USA. CR *UN U DEP FOR RUSS, 1997, PROP STUD METH DET I *US EPA, 1995, HOR US FOR PROJ ENV BELL W, 1997, FDN FUTURE STUDIES, V1 BOYD R, 1985, CULTURE EVOLUTIONARY EPSTEIN JM, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S GAITENBY A, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V52, P135 GORDON T, 1993, MILLENIUM PROJECT FE GORDON T, 1999, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V61 GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 GORDON TJ, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P1 HELMER O, 1959, MANAGEMENT SCI, V6 HELMER O, 1983, LOOKINGFORWARD LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD NR 13 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 63 EP 71 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700010 ER PT J AU Brunner, RD TI Predictions and policy decisions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SCIENCE; MODELS C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Brunner, RD, Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Campus Box 333, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR *COMM EARTH SCI, 1989, OUR CHANG PLAN FY 19 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1991, OTASET490 ANDERSON PW, 1972, SCIENCE, V177, P393 ASCHER W, 1907, FORECASTING APPRAISA ASCHER W, 1981, POLICY SCI, V13, P247 BRUNNER RD, IN PRESS POLICY SCI DYSON FJ, 1988, INFINITE ALL DIRECTI, P135 FRIEDMAN M, 1953, ESSAYS POSITIVE EC, P3 HOLLAND JH, 1992, DAEDALUS, V121, P17 HOLLAND JH, 1992, SCI AM, V267, P66 HOLLING CS, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P3 HORGAN J, 1995, SCI AM, V272, P104 HORGAN J, 1996, END SCI FACING LIMIT KAPLAN A, 1963, AM ETHICS PUBLIC POL KUHN TS, 1996, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LASSWELL HD, 1952, COMP STUDY SYMBOLS I LASSWELL HD, 1971, PREVIEW POLICY SCI LEVISTRAUSS G, 1966, SAVAGE MIND ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 RAYNER S, 1997, NATURE, V390, P332 RIVLIN AM, 1984, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V4, P17 ROBERTS L, 1991, SCIENCE, V251, P1302 SIMON HA, 1957, MODELS MAN SIMON HA, 1969, SCI ARTIFICIAL STERN PC, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1897 NR 25 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 73 EP 78 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700011 ER PT J AU Linstone, HA TI Complexity science: Implications for forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CHAOS; SYSTEMS; GROWTH C1 Portland State Univ, Syst Sci PHD Program, Portland, OR 97207 USA. RP Linstone, HA, Portland State Univ, Syst Sci PHD Program, POB 751, Portland, OR 97207 USA. CR AXELROD R, 1997, COMPLEXITY, V3, P16 BRUNNER RD, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P73 CAMBEL AB, 1993, APPL CHAOS THEORY PA CASTI J, 1990, SEARCHING CERTAINTY, P407 CASTI J, 1997, WOULD BE WORLDS EPSTEINJM, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GAINES BR, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V57, P7 GARDNER JN, 1997, COMPLEXITY, V3, P31 GORDON T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P49 GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 KAUFFMAN S, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE KIEL LD, 1994, MANAGING CHAOS COMPL LANE D, 1995, COMPLEXITY, V1, P9 LINSTONE H, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY LINSTONE H, 1999, DECISION MAKING TECH MARCHETTI C, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P345 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 MODIS T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P63 MODIS T, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P33 PETRICH CH, 1998, COMPLEXITY, V3, P23 RESNICK M, 1998, COMPLEXITY, V3, P29 RYCROFT RW, 1999, COMPLEXITY CHALLENGE SCHELLING TC, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P15 SHERMER M, 1995, HIST THEORY, V34, P59 SIMON H, 1977, NEW SCI MANAGEMENT D, CH4 SIMON HA, 1990, OPER RES, V38, P7 VOGE J, 1985, SCI PRAXIS COMPLEXIT WANG C, 1999, PICMET 99 PORTL INT, P25 NR 30 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 79 EP 90 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700012 ER PT J AU Phillips, F TI Assumption drag and the new millennium SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Oregon Grad Inst Sci & Technol, MST Dept, Portland, OR 97291 USA. RP Phillips, F, Oregon Grad Inst Sci & Technol, MST Dept, POB 91000, Portland, OR 97291 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 91 EP 96 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700013 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Getting at assumptions is troublesome SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Coates & Jarratt Inc, Washington, DC USA. RP Coates, JF, 3738 Kanawha St NW, Washington, DC 20115 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 97 EP 99 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700014 ER PT J AU Nakicenovic, N TI Energy perspectives into the next millennium: From resources scarcity to decarbonization SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Proj, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. RP Nakicenovic, N, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Proj, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. CR ADELMAN MA, 1997, OIL GAS J 0407, P56 GRUBLER A, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P97 GRUBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH HOWELL DG, 1993, US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, V1570 MANNE AS, 1997, INT EN WORKSH SUMM P NAKICENOVIC N, 1993, FUTURE ENERGY GASES, P661 NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P75 NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P95 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPE ROGNER HH, 1997, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V22, P217 VICTOR DG, 1998, IR98094 INT I APPL S NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 101 EP 106 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700015 ER PT J AU Ascher, W TI Assumption drag in economic development SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Duke Univ, Ctr Int Dev Res, Terry Sanford Inst Publ Policy, Durham, NC 27708 USA. RP Ascher, W, Duke Univ, Ctr Int Dev Res, Terry Sanford Inst Publ Policy, Durham, NC 27708 USA. CR NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPE NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 107 EP 110 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700016 ER PT J AU Modis, T TI Approaching the new millennium SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Growth Dynam, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Modis, T, Growth Dynam, Rue Beau Site 2, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. CR CORDELL B, 1996, SPACE POLICY FEB, P45 MARCHETTI C, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P345 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 MODIS T, 1998, CONQUERING UNCERTAIN MODIS T, 1999, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V61 WHITE L, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P359 NR 7 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 111 EP 114 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700017 ER PT J AU Ayres, RU TI Economic assumptions in need of renovation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INSEAD, CMER, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. RP Ayres, RU, INSEAD, CMER, Blvd de Constance, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. CR AYRES RU, 1994, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V4, P435 AYRES RU, 1994, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V24, P35 AYRES RU, 1995, ECOL ECON, V15, P97 AYRES RU, 1996, ECOLOGICAL EC, V19, P17 AYRES RU, 1996, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V14, P562 AYRES RU, 1998, ENV REC EC AYRES RU, 1998, HDB RESOURCE EC AYRES RU, 1998, TURNING POINT END GR NR 8 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 115 EP 117 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700018 ER PT J AU Ausubel, JH TI Dis the threat industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, New York, NY 10021 USA. RP Ausubel, JH, Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, 1230 York Ave, New York, NY 10021 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 119 EP 120 PG 2 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700019 ER PT J AU Grupp, H TI Wrong is beautiful! SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Fraunhofer ISI, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. Tech Univ, Fac Econ & Management, Berlin, Germany. RP Grupp, H, Fraunhofer ISI, Breslauer Str 48, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. CR BLIND K, 1998, INT SOC SYST SCI 42 GRUPP H, 1998, FDN EC INNOVATION TH GRUPP H, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P85 IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI PICKIN KUHLMANN S, 1998, EVALUATION, V4, P130 MAASS M, 1993, ANTIKE DELPHI MARTIN BR, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P37 PARKE HW, 1956, DELPHIC ORACLE SOCRATES, PHAIDROS NR 9 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 121 EP 123 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700020 ER PT J AU Martino, JP TI Certainties old and new SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Martino, JP, 905 S Main St, Sidney, OH 45365 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 125 EP 126 PG 2 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700021 ER PT J AU Kyriakou, D TI Recasting competitiveness: Attractive societies and the surprising disappearance of tradeoffs SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 IPTS, World Trade Ctr, Inst Prospect Studies, European Commiss, Seville 41092, Spain. RP Kyriakou, D, IPTS, World Trade Ctr, Inst Prospect Studies, European Commiss, Seville 41092, Spain. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 127 EP 130 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700022 ER PT J AU Halal, WE TI Three reversals in the twenty-first century SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 George Washington Univ, Dept Management Sci, Washington, DC 20052 USA. RP Halal, WE, George Washington Univ, Dept Management Sci, Washington, DC 20052 USA. CR HALAL W, 1993, INTERNAL MARKETS BRI HALAL W, 1996, NEW MANAGEMENT HALAL W, 1998, INFINITE RESOURCE CR HALAL W, 1998, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V50, P89 HARMAN W, 1988, GLOBAL MIND CHANGE NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 131 EP 133 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700023 ER PT J AU Pelc, KI TI Counter-trends and potential trend conversions in the early twenty-first century SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Michigan Technol Univ, Sch Business & Econ, Houghton, MI 49931 USA. RP Pelc, KI, Michigan Technol Univ, Sch Business & Econ, 1400 Townsend Dr, Houghton, MI 49931 USA. CR *COMP INC, EMM COMM NUMB *REUT LTD, 1997, REUT STUD GLUED SCRE NR 2 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 135 EP 137 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700024 ER PT J AU Kash, DE TI Extrapolation without understanding SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 George Mason Univ, Inst Publ Policy, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. RP Kash, DE, George Mason Univ, Inst Publ Policy, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 139 EP 141 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700025 ER PT J AU Porter, AL TI Depth perception SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FUTURE CHIPS; DNA C1 Georgia Inst Technol, Dept Ind & Syst Engn, Technol Policy & Assessment Ctr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Porter, AL, Georgia Inst Technol, Dept Ind & Syst Engn, Technol Policy & Assessment Ctr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. CR AMATO I, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P402 GRUPP H, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P1 KOSTOFF R, 1999, SCI TECHNOLOGY INNOV SERVICE RF, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P396 SERVICE RF, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P399 WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 NR 6 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 143 EP 145 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700026 ER PT J AU Alic, JA TI The radical uncertainty of the future SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Alic, JA, Apt A-412,1425 4th St SW, Washington, DC USA. CR HERZENBERG SA, 1998, NEW RULES NEW EC EMP NR 1 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 147 EP 150 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700027 ER PT J AU Dror, Y TI Beyond uncertainty: Facing the inconceivable SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Polit Sci, IL-91905 Jerusalem, Israel. RP Dror, Y, Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Polit Sci, IL-91905 Jerusalem, Israel. NR 0 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG-SEP PY 1999 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 151 EP 153 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 250UY UT ISI:000083407700028 ER PT J AU Meyer, PS Ausubel, JH TI Carrying capacity: A model with logistically varying limits SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GROWTH AB We introduce an extension to the widely-used logistic model of growth to a limit that in turn allows for a sigmoidally increasing carrying capacity? that is, the invention and diffusion of technologies which lift the limit. We study the effect of this dynamic carrying capacity on the trajectories of simple growth models, and we use the new model to re-analyze two actual cases of the growth of human populations. English and Japanese examples with two pulses, or one change in limit, appear to verify the model. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, New York, NY 10021 USA. RP Meyer, PS, Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, 1230 York Ave,Box 234, New York, NY 10021 USA. CR ARROW K, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P520 BANKS RB, 1994, GROWTH DIFFUSION PHE COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART COHEN JE, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P341 COLEMAN BD, 1979, MATH BIOSCI, V45, P159 GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARCHETTI C, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V52, P1 MEYER P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P89 MEYER PS, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P247 NAKICENOVIC N, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI PEARL R, 1924, STUDIES HUMAN BIOL PRESS WH, 1993, NUMERICAL RECIPES C SCHELLING TC, 1998, SOCIAL MECH ANAL APP SOCIETY TYM, NIPPON CHARTED SURVE TAEUBER IB, 1958, POPULATION HIST JAPA VANDERBILT D, 1984, J COMPUT PHYS, V56, P259 VASKO T, 1987, LONG WAVE DEBATE WAGGONER PE, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P73 WRIGLEY EA, 1981, POPULATION HIST ENGL NR 20 TC 17 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 61 IS 3 BP 209 EP 214 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 230RR UT ISI:000082264600001 ER PT J AU du Preez, GT Pistorius, CWI TI Technological threat and opportunity assessment SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of anticipating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making, The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach. Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit. Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Pretoria, Inst Technol Innovat, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Pistorius, CWI, Univ Pretoria, Inst Technol Innovat, Lynnwood Rd, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. CR AGUILAR FJ, 1967, SCANNING BUSINESS EN, P19 ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 ASHTON WB, 1997, KEEPING ABREAST SCI ASHTON WB, 1998, COMMUNICATION 0814 BLOOM JL, 1997, KEEPING ABREAST SCI BRIGHT JR, 1970, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P62 BRIGHT JR, 1978, PRACTICAL TECHNOLOGY BURGELMAN RA, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P31 BURGELMAN RA, 1989, RES TECHNOLOGICAL IN, V4, P1 CABELLO C, 1996, IPTS FORESIGHT WATCH CHIESA V, 1996, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V13, P105 GILFILLAN SC, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA GROTH JC, 1993, MANAGEMENT DECISIONS, V31, P34 HOWARD WG, 1992, PROFITING INNOVATION KORF GJ, 1996, THESIS U PRETORIA PR LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MARTINO JP, 1973, GUIDE PRACTICAL TECH, P123 MEINTJES GF, 1996, EFFECTS COMPETITION PISTORIUS CWI, 1995, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI, V50, P215 PORTER AL, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P237 PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PRAHALAD CK, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P64 SHILLITO ML, 1994, ADV QFD LINKING TECH THOMAS CW, 1996, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V11, P651 THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION, P159 TWISS BC, 1992, FORECASTING TECHNOLO TWISS BC, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P150 UTTERBACK JM, 1972, BUSINESS HORIZONS SE UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I VANWYK RJ, 1984, TECHNOVATION, V2, P101 VANWYK RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V55, P21 WHEELWRIGHT SC, 1992, REVOLUTIONIZING PROD, P82 WHITE GR, 1978, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P146 WISEMA JG, 1982, R D MANAGEMENT, V12, P27 WOHLERS TT, 1998, RAPID PROTOTYPING TO, P22 NR 35 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 61 IS 3 BP 215 EP 234 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 230RR UT ISI:000082264600002 ER PT J AU Giovanis, AN Skiadas, CH TI A stochastic logistic innovation diffusion model studying the electricity consumption in Greece and the United States SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTION AB In this article, a stochastic innovation diffusion model is proposed, derived from the original logistic growth model assuming that the future remaining growth of the underlying process is not known with certainty but is modeled using an appropriate stochastic process. Ar any time, the potential adopters of a product are affected by a number of socioeconomic factors that determine their nonuniform behavior, and the way they act is considered to be random. The stochastic model is solved analytically using the theory of reducible stochastic differential equations. The parameter estimators of the model are derived using two procedures for discrete observations of the process. Finally, the model is applied to the data of electricity consumption in Greece and the: United States. The prediction of the consumption process is made possible by defining a subdomain such that all possible trajectories of the process should belong within a predefined probability. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Tech Univ Crete, Dept Prod Engn & Management, Crete 73132, Greece. RP Skiadas, CH, Tech Univ Crete, Dept Prod Engn & Management, Agiou Markou St, Crete 73132, Greece. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 CHESNEY M, 1993, P 6 INT S APPL STOCH, P131 CLARKE AC, 1973, PROFILE FUTURE ENQUI EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 ELIASHBERG J, 1985, DIFFUSION NEW PRODUC ELIASHBERG J, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION, P151 FLOYD A, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA GARDINER GW, 1990, HDB STOCHASTIC METHO GIHMAN II, 1972, STOCHASTIC DIFFERENT GIOVANIS AN, 1995, ADV APPLYING STOCHAS GIOVANIS AN, 1998, THESIS TU CRETE CHAN KARMESHU, 1980, J MATH SOCIOLOGY, V7, P59 KLOEDEN PE, 1992, 249 U AARH DEP THEOR KLOEDEN PE, 1992, NUMERICAL SOLUTION S KUCHLER U, 1989, INT STAT REV, V57, P123 LAL V, 1988, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI, V34, P103 MANFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 NARENDRA SG, 1971, REV MODERN PHYSICS, V43, P231 SEBER GAF, 1989, NONLINEAR REGRESSION SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P89 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 SKIADAS CH, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P313 SKIADAS CH, 1987, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V34, P79 SKIADAS CH, 1993, APPL STOCHASTIC MODE SKIADAS CH, 1994, SELECTED TOPICS STOC SKIADAS CH, 1997, APPL STOCH MODEL D A, V13, P85 NR 26 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 61 IS 3 BP 235 EP 246 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 230RR UT ISI:000082264600003 ER PT J AU Meyer, PS Yung, JW Ausubel, JH TI A primer on logistic growth and substitution - The mathematics of the Loglet Lab software SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MODEL AB This article describes the mathematics underlying the Loglet Lab software package for loglet analysis. "Loglet analysis" refers to the decomposition of growth and diffusion into S-shaped logistic components. roughly analogous to wavelet analysis, popular for signal processing and compression. The term "loglet" joins "logistic" and "wavelet." Loglet analysis comprises two models: the first is the component logistic model, in which autonomous systems exhibit logistic growth. The second is the logistic substitution model, which models the effects of competitions within a market. An appendix describes the current status of the software. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, New York, NY 10021 USA. RP Meyer, PS, Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, 1230 York Ave,Box 234, New York, NY 10021 USA. CR *RIAA, 1997, ANN REP TECHN REP AUSUBEL JH, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P139 AUSUBEL JH, 1998, EUROPEAN REV, V6, P143 BANKS RB, 1994, GROWTH DIFFUSION PHE EFRON B, 1993, INTRO BOOTSTRAP ENGELNMULLGES G, 1996, NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC INCE EL, 1956, ORDINARY DIFFERENTIA KINDLEBERGER CP, 1996, WORLD EC PERSPECTIVE KINGSLAND SE, 1985, MODELING NATURE EPIS LOTKA AJ, 1925, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 IIASA MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARCHETTI C, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V52, P1 MEYER P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P89 MOLER C, 1996, MATLAB 4 0 REFERENCE MONTROLL EW, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P4633 NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, RR7912 IIASA NAKICENOVIC N, 1984, GROWTH LIMITS LONG W NAKICENOVIC N, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI PRESS WH, 1993, NUMERICAL RECIPES C THORNTON HG, 1922, ANN APPL BIOL, V9, P241 WILSON EB, 1925, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V11, P451 YUNG JW, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V61, P273 NR 25 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 61 IS 3 BP 247 EP 271 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 230RR UT ISI:000082264600004 ER PT J AU Yung, JW Meyer, PS Ausubel, JH TI The Loglet Lab software: A tutorial SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB After a brief explanation of the installation of the Loglet Lab software package, this tutorial guides the user through several exercises in logistic analysis. Specifically, we illustrate how to fit single and multi-logistic curves to data, apply transformations on the component logistic model, use the Bootstrap method to compute the statistical error of our estimates, acid apply the logistic substitution model to a system. Although this article touches upon some basic guidelines for logistic analysis, its primary goal is to familiarize users with the operation of the software. At points where a more detailed description of logistic analysis might be helpful, we refer to the accompanying primer titled "Logjstic Growth and Substitution: The Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software." (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, New York, NY 10021 USA. RP Meyer, PS, Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, 1230 York Ave,Box 234, New York, NY 10021 USA. CR 1992, STOCKHOLM INT PEACE 1997, RECORDING IND ASS AM REED HS, 1919, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V5, P135 WETTERAU B, 1980, NEW YORK PUBLIC LIB, P397 NR 4 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1999 VL 61 IS 3 BP 273 EP 295 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 230RR UT ISI:000082264600005 ER PT J AU Glenn, JC Gordon, TJ TI The Millennium Project - Issues and opportunities for the future SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This issue presents the distillation of views of approximately 250 participants from around the world who have contributed their judgments about the state of the future. A total of 180 developments were identified and rated that could evolve over the foreseeable future to significantly improve the human condition. These were clustered into 15 global opportunities with suggested actions that might be useful in achieving the opportunities. The effectiveness of these actions was judged by policy makers and advisors. The relationships and impacts of the 15 global issues from last year's report and the 15 global opportunities in this year's report are included. Lessons and questions from history were also identified and rated for value in futures research. Global exploratory scenarios from the first year of the Project were extended by judgments of Project participants, quantitative global models, and "lessons of history." Results of a global participatory process to produce global normative scenario sketches are also included. (C) 1998 American Council for the United Nations University. C1 UN Univ, Amer Council, Millennium Project, Washington, DC 20016 USA. RP Glenn, JC, UN Univ, Amer Council, Millennium Project, 4421 Garrison St NW, Washington, DC 20016 USA. CR BARNEY G, 1980, GLOBAL 2000 REPORT P GLENN JC, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P203 GLENN JC, 1998, 1998 STATE FUTURE IS GODET M, 1994, ANTICIPATION ACTION GODET M, 1997, SCENARIOS STRATEGIES GORDON T, FUTURES, V6, P100 GORDON T, 1990, TREND IMPACT ANAL KANE J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P129 KLEIN L, 1995, J BUSINESS FORECASTI MEADOWS D, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH NR 10 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1999 VL 61 IS 2 BP 97 EP 208 PG 112 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 214LD UT ISI:000081328700001 ER PT J AU Goldenberg, J Mazursky, D Solomon, S TI Templates of original innovation: Projecting original incremental innovations from intrinsic information SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT; DYNAMICS AB A systematic framework for the enhancement of inventiveness is introduced. According to the proposed approach, the starting point is an existing system rather than external pressures. By a sequence of formal operations (defined as templates) on the initial structure of a system, an innovative structure involving a new system is obtained. The sequence of operations is prescribed by well-defined procedures. The replacement template is illustrated in this work by two field cases and its potential value is tested empirically. Given the abundance of innovations in which the templates are manifested, the replacement template can be considered an exemplar for utilizing intrinsic information about a system in the development of innovations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Sch Business Adm, Jerusalem, Israel. Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Racah Inst Phys, Jerusalem, Israel. RP Goldenberg, J, Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Sch Business Adm, Jerusalem, Israel. CR ALTSCHULER GS, 1986, FIND IDEA INTRO THEO BENARYEH A, 1999, IN PRESS OPTIMAL INC DASGUPTA S, 1994, INVENTION DESIGN COM DAY GS, 1979, J MARKETING, V43, P8 DAY GS, 1994, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V11, P69 DEGREENE KB, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P171 FINKE RA, 1992, CREATIVE COGNITION GOLDENBERG J, IN PRESS J MARKETING GOLDENBERG Y, 1996, INT J MOD PHYS C, V7, P655 GOLDENBERG Y, 1997, INT J MOD PHYS C, V8, P365 GRIFFIN A, 1997, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V14, P429 HAYES JR, 1978, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL TH HOROWITZ R, 1997, P DETC 97 1997 ASME MYERS JH, 1976, BENEFIT STRUCTURE AN, P23 PERKINS DN, 1981, MINDS BEST WORK PYE D, 1978, NATURE AESTHETICS DE ROGERS EM, 1962, DIFFUSION INNOVATION ROUSE WB, 1992, STRATEGIES INNOVATIO SIMON HA, 1979, MODELS THOUGHTS TAUBER EM, 1972, J MARKETING, V36, P58 ULRICH T, 1998, MANAGE SCI, V44, P352 URBAN GL, 1993, DESIGN MARKETING NEW WEISBERG RW, 1992, CREATIVITY MYTH GENI NR 23 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 61 IS 1 BP 1 EP 12 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 197LA UT ISI:000080365200001 ER PT J AU Morgenstern, RD Al-Jurf, S TI Can free information really accelerate technology diffusion? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID POLLUTION-ABATEMENT TECHNOLOGY; ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAMS; INNOVATION; LEVEL; COST AB Significant environmental benefits are often associated with the rapid diffusion of new energy-saving technologies. Over the past decade, electric and gas utilities, as well as the federal government, have provided free technical information and, in some cases, direct cash subsidies, to owners of existing commercial buildings to stimulate investment in specific energy-saving technologies. Yet little is known about the effectiveness of the information component of these programs. Can information itself, without explicit cash subsidies, actually increase investment in new technologies? To examine these issues, a model of retrofit investment in high-efficiency lighting technologies is developed. Estimates are based on a sample of commercial buildings, rather than the more common comparison of program participants to a synthetic pairing with another population. The principal finding is that information programs appear to make a significant contribution to the diffusion of high-efficiency lighting in commercial office buildings. Additionally, there is some evidence that the programs are more effective in encouraging retrofits by those who have already invested in advanced lighting technologies than for first-time purchasers. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Univ Virginia, Sch Law, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. RP Morgenstern, RD, Resources Future Inc, 1616 P St NW, Washington, DC 20036 USA. CR *ACEEE, 1994, P ACEEE SUMM STUD EN *US EPA, 1995, EPA GREEN LIGHTS PRO *USDOE, 1995, COMM BUILD EN CONS E *USGAO, 1997, GLOB WARM INF RES 4 BRAITHWAIT S, 1994, ENERGY J, V15, P95 DAVID PA, 1969, IND 2 SYSTEMS, P3 DAVID PA, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG, P373 DOWNING PB, 1986, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V13, P18 ETO J, 1996, ENERGY J, V17, P31 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 HIRST E, 1992, ENERGY J, V13, P72 HIRST E, 1994, RESOURCE ENERGY EC, V16, P24 JAFFE AB, 1994, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V16, P91 JOSKOW PL, 1992, ENERGY J, V13, P41 JUNG CH, 1996, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V30, P95 MADDALLA GS, 1983, LTD DEPENDENT QUALIT MALM E, 1996, ENERGY J, V17, P41 MALUEG DA, 1989, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V16, P52 MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA OSTER S, 1982, BELL J ECON, V13, P45 OZOG MT, 1994, ENERGY J, V15, P129 RIBAR DC, 1994, REV ECON STAT, V76, P413 STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNICAL CH THIRTLE CG, 1987, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G TRAIN KE, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P55 TRAIN KE, 1998, ENERGY J, V9, P113 WIRL F, 1994, ENERG SOURCE, V16, P1 NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 61 IS 1 BP 13 EP 24 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 197LA UT ISI:000080365200002 ER PT J AU Kathuria, V TI Role of externalities in inducing technical change: A case study of the Indian machine tool industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The role of externalities in generating and diffusing technical change has been highlighted prominently in the past few years. The externalities assume added relevance if the technical change in the industry is itself fast. In this article, a framework is developed to explain the role of externalities in inducing technical change in one such fast changing industry-the machine tool industry. The framework is then applied to an important segment of the Indian machine tool industry, the Computer Numerically Controlled (CNC) lathe segment. The primary survey of firms shows that externalities in the form of feedback from users, suppliers, presence as well as products of competitors, participation in exhibitions/fairs, and workers' suggestions are some of the most important factors in inducing technical change in the segment. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Gujarat Inst Dev Res, Ahmedabad 380060, Gujarat, India. RP Kathuria, V, Gujarat Inst Dev Res, PO High Court, Ahmedabad 380060, Gujarat, India. CR *ACE DES, 1995, ANN REP *CMTI, 1989, MACH TOOL CENS 1986 *DSIR GOVT IND, 1990, TECHN IND CNC LATH M *EXIM, 1996, 52 EXIM *GOVT IND DEP SCI, 1995, R D COMP *IMTMA, 1986, ANN REP *IMTMA, 1995, DIR MEMB *IMTMA, 1995, HDB MACH TOOLS ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 AMSDEN AH, 1986, MACHINERY EC DEV BELL M, 1986, UNPUB TECHNICAL CHAN DESAI A, 1996, MACHINE TOOL IND IND FRANSMAN M, 1985, J DEV STUD, V21, P572 FRANSMAN M, 1986, MACHINERY EC DEV FRANSMAN M, 1986, WORLD DEV, V14, P1375 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC JACOBSSON S, 1986, WORLD IND STUDIES, V5 JACOBSSON S, 1994, LIBERALIZATION IND D KRUEGER AO, 1981, TRADE GROWTH ADV DEV LEE KR, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P491 NARAIN R, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V55, P83 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVE TECHNOLO ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX ROTHWELL R, 1986, J MARKETING MANAGEME, V2, P109 SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHUMPETER JA, 1942, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM STEWART F, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P569 VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION WATANABE S, 1983, 222 ILO WOGART JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGY COMPETITI NR 32 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 61 IS 1 BP 25 EP 44 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 197LA UT ISI:000080365200003 ER PT J AU Jun, DB Park, YS TI A choice-based diffusion model for multiple generations of products SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SUCCESSIVE GENERATIONS; TECHNOLOGY; SUBSTITUTION AB We incorporate diffusion effects and choice effects in an integrated model to capture simultaneously the diffusion and substitution processes for each successive generation of a durable technology. The choice literature generally ignores demand dynamics and previous multigeneration diffusion models rarely include control variables. The proposed model is a combination of the two approaches. The basic premise of the proposed model states that the replacement of an older product by a newer one is based on the choice behavior of consumers, where consumers choose a product to maximize their utility. Then we can derive the implied relationships among choice probabilities, diffusion processes, and marketing mix variables. To verify the proposed model, we also analyze the IBM mainframe market and worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) market. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Management, Dongdaemun Gu, Seoul 130010, South Korea. RP Jun, DB, Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Management, Dongdaemun Gu, 207-43 Cheongryangri Dong, Seoul 130010, South Korea. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BENAKIVA M, 1985, DISCRETE CHOICE ANAL ISLAM T, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P49 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MAHAJAN V, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P109 MALHOTRA NK, 1984, J MARKETING RES, V21, P20 MCFADDEN D, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P275 MEYER R, 1985, MARKET SCI, V4, P41 NORTON JA, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1069 OLIVER RM, 1987, J OPER RES SOC, V38, P49 OLSON J, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P385 SPEECE MW, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P281 NR 12 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 61 IS 1 BP 45 EP 58 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 197LA UT ISI:000080365200004 ER PT J AU Alyan, N TI The role of capital intensity and technology usage in upgrading skills in the US labor market SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID WAGES; WORKERS; DEMAND AB This article examines the relationship between different measures of technological change and the change in the wage (employment) share of skilled workers. The capital/output ratio and the share of computer stock in total capital stock are used to examine the effect of both capital deepening and capital quality on work force structure. The results suggest that both capital deepening and investment in computers are positively correlated to the change in the wage share of skilled workers. Comparing the magnitude of different capital investment variables suggests that computer investment has a stronger effect on the change in the wage share of skilled workers than does noncomputer capital investment. In addition, this article examines the effect of other advanced manufacturing technologies, such as flexible manufacturing systems, robots, networks, and numerically controlled machines, on the share of skilled workers. The results indicate a positive effect of these technologies on the work force skill mix and that the effect is stronger over longer periods. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Husson Coll, Bangor, ME 04401 USA. RP Alyan, N, 11 Constitut Ave, Hampden, ME 04444 USA. CR *BUR EC AN, 1994, FIX REPR TANG WEALTH *US DEP COMM, 1988, CURR IND REP MAN TEC AUTOR D, 1997, 377 PRINC U IND REL BARTEL AP, 1987, REV ECON STAT, V69, P1 BERMAN E, 1994, Q J ECON, V109, P367 BOUND J, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P371 BRENDT E, 1991, PRACTICE ECONOMETRIC DAVIS S, 1991, MICROECONOMICS, P115 DOMS M, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P253 DUNNE T, 1991, UNPUB PATTERNS TECHN DUNNE T, 1995, ECONOMICA, V62, P89 DUNNE T, 1996, NATL BUREAU EC RES W, V5656 KATZ LF, 1992, Q J ECON, V107, P35 MURPHY KM, 1992, Q J ECON, V107, P285 RUGGLES S, 1995, INTEGRATED PUBLIC US SACHS JD, 1994, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V1, P1 VANREENEN J, 1993, 874 CTR EC POL RES NR 17 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 61 IS 1 BP 59 EP 74 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 197LA UT ISI:000080365200005 ER PT J AU Harries, C TI Judgmental inputs to the forecasting process: Research and practice SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1999 VL 61 IS 1 BP 75 EP 75 PG 1 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 197LA UT ISI:000080365200007 ER PT J AU Mitchell, GR TI Global technology policies for economic growth SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB With the end of the Cold War, nations throughout the world are placing ever greater emphasis on economic growth. Over the last 50 years, advances in technology have been the single most important factor in creating growth in many economies, and thus policies to promote technological innovation rank high on the list of priorities for both developed and developing countries. In general, as countries progress up the economic ladder, national R&D intensity, (i.e., R&D/GDP), tends to increase along with per capita income. In addition, nations move through a discernible sequence of technology policies from an initial focus on infrastructure, through a set of actions designed to encourage technology acquisition from more advanced economies, to comprehensive education and research agendas targeted to the creation and development of new technology. In the United States, national technology policy for economic growth focuses on education, building a 21st century infrastructure, and creating a business climate that encourages growth, technological innovation, and risk taking. Throughout the last 50 years there have been significant changes in the competitive position of nations. In recent years, U.S. corporations have regained some of the competitive leadership they lost in the 1980s. This has been accompanied by significantly increased R&D spending by U.S. industry, particularly in the information and health care related sectors. U.S. industry funding of R&D overtook that from the government in the early 1980s and accounts for almost two-thirds of the national total. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Penn, Wharton Program Technol Innovat, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. RP Mitchell, GR, 3909 Highwood Court NW, Washington, DC 20007 USA. CR 1994, EC REPORT PRESIDENT *NAT SCI TECHN COU, 1996, TECHN NAT INT *US DEP COMM, 1996, M CHALL US IND FAC 2 *US DEP COMM, 1997, KOR STRAT LEAD RES D *US DEP COMM, 1997, M CHALL US IND FAC 2 BOSKIN MJ, 1992, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA QUINN JB, 1992, INTELLIGENT ENTERPRI NR 7 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 60 IS 3 BP 205 EP 214 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 184UP UT ISI:000079632400001 ER PT J AU Verspagen, B De Loo, I TI Technology spillovers between sectors and over time SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; INNOVATION; INDUSTRY AB Technology spillovers are an important source of economic growth. This article presents a new method to measure technology spillovers at the macroeconomic or sectoral level by means of a so-called technology flow matrix. The main novelty relative to existing technology flow matrices is that the matrix in this article provides insight into the time dimension of the spillover process. The matrix is used to assess whether or not R&D spillovers lead to a more equal distribution of technology investment over sectors. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Eindhoven Univ Technol, Fac Technol Management, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. Univ Maastricht, MERIT, Maastricht, Netherlands. RP Verspagen, B, Eindhoven Univ Technol, Fac Technol Management, POB 513,TEMA Bldg 003, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. EM bart.verspagen@merit.unimaas.nl CR *OECD, 1991, TECHN CHANG WORLD *OECD, 1995, DSTIEASINDSTP951 OEC *OECD, 1996, TECHN IND PERF TECHN *UN, 1970, EC SURV EUR 1969 1 ARCHIBUGI D, 1998, TECHNOVATION, V7, P259 COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 DAVID PA, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P355 GREEN PE, 1989, MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCA GRILICHES Z, 1979, BELL J ECON, V10, P92 GRILICHES Z, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P1661 GRILICHES Z, 1992, SCANDINAVIAN J EC, V94, P29 GRUPP H, 1996, J EVOL ECON, V6, P175 KORTUM S, 1997, EC SYSTEMS RES, V9, P161 LOS B, 1996, 6 C INT JA SCHUMP SO LOS B, 1997, UNPUB REV INTERINDUS LOS B, 1999, THESIS U TWENTE LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT NELSON RR, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST OSTBLOM G, 1997, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V8, P115 SCHERER FM, 1982, REV ECON STAT, V64, P627 SIMPSON D, 1965, REV ECON STAT, V47, P434 STONEMAN P, 1987, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA VACCARA BN, 1970, APPL INPUT OUTPUT AN, V2, P238 VANHULST N, 1991, WELTWIRTSCH ARCH, V127, P246 VERSPAGEN B, 1992, J MACROECON, V14, P631 VERSPAGEN B, 1994, 94004 MERIT U MAASTR VERSPAGEN B, 1997, EC SYSTEMS RES, V9, P47 VERSPAGEN B, 1997, WELTWIRTSCH ARCH, V133, P226 NR 28 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 60 IS 3 BP 215 EP 235 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 184UP UT ISI:000079632400002 ER PT J AU Kayal, A TI Measuring the pace of technological progress: Implications for technological forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DETERMINANTS AB The pace of technological progress is a construct that has evolved from technological change theories. Although the construct is well described, it lacks a valid objective measure. Measuring the pace of technological progress is believed to be important for both technology management and technology forecasting. A newly-developed objective measure of the pace of technological progress called the Technology Cycle Time indicator (TCT) is evaluated. The TCT indicator was used in two comparison analyses: (1) assessing the pace of progress of superconductor and semiconductor technologies; and (2) assessing the position of various countries patenting in the semiconductor technology field. The TCT assessments were then analytically compared with specialist assessments found in the literature. The findings revealed that the TCT provided a valid assessment in each situation. The TCT has important implications for technology management and technology forecasting research. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Coll Ind Management, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia. RP Kayal, A, King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Coll Ind Management, POB 821, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia. CR *US DEP COMM, 1990, TECHN ADM 1990 EM TE *US DEP COMM, 1994, US IND OUTL 1994 EL ABERNATHY W, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V2, P40 AEH R, 1990, J SYST MANAGE, V41, P21 ANDERSON P, 1988, THESIS COLUMBIA U ANDERSON P, 1991, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V34, P26 AYRES RU, 1988, TECHNOVATION, V7, P87 AYRES RU, 1994, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V24, P35 BIERLY P, 1996, R&D MANAGE, V26, P115 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 FOSTER R, 1986, TECHNOLOGY MODERN CO HAZEN R, 1988, BREAKTHROUGH RACE SU HOBDAY M, 1989, J COMMON MARK STUD, V28, P155 KAYAL A, 1996, THESIS G WASHINGTON LEVIN R, 1982, UNDERSTANDING R D PR TWISS B, 1992, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC VIDALI G, 1993, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY NE WIEGNER K, 1995, UPSIDE, V7, P24 NR 18 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 60 IS 3 BP 237 EP 245 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 184UP UT ISI:000079632400003 ER PT J AU McGrath, RN TI Effects of incumbency and R & D affiliation on the legitimation of electric vehicle technologies SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DISCONTINUITIES AB Non-economic forces distort "rational" competitions among emerging technologies and associated trajectories. For example, incumbent and credibly affiliated firms use their legitimacy to promote their technological preferences and denigrate the efforts of less legitimate firms. This article reports results of a study which examined these dynamics in the competition among emerging electrochemical innovations aimed at the electric vehicle industry. It also presents the first-known use of the technology forecasting technique called morphological analysis in business academia. Similarities and differences between media representations of innovation activities, versus actual industry-wide developments, were found to have theoretical and practitioner implications. It was found that (1) incumbent firms were not participating meaningfully, rendering that variable largely moot; (2) effects of R&D affiliation were marginally significant; that while (3) performance advantages and disadvantages were reported in the media much more frequently than respective cost-price advantages and disadvantages, that (4) the relative performance advantages and disadvantages of competing innovations were reported in a balanced way, but that (5) the pattern of reports concerning cost-price was unbalanced in a way that favored the dominant design plus relatively modest departures from it. The overall interpretation indicated that relatively modest types of innovations were "winning" the early battle in a subtle but important way, despite representing a trajectory that was not certain to be the most rational, from a performance and/or cost-price focus. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Embry Riddle Aeronaut Univ, Dept Business Adm, Daytona Beach, FL 32114 USA. RP McGrath, RN, Embry Riddle Aeronaut Univ, Dept Business Adm, 600 S Clyde Morris Blvd, Daytona Beach, FL 32114 USA. EM macgrathr@cts.db.erau.edu CR ALDRICH HE, 1994, ACAD MANAGE REV, V19, P645 ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 AUDRETSCH DB, 1995, INNOVATION IND EVOLU BAILEY KD, 1982, METHODS SOCIAL SCI BARNEY JB, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P1512 FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS GOODMAN RS, 1994, TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY HAMEL G, 1994, COMPETING FUTURE HERMAN E, 1995, QUESTIONING MEDIA CR MCGRATH RN, 1996, THESIS ANN ARBOR MEYER JW, 1977, AM J SOCIOL, V83, P340 PARSONS T, 1960, STRUCTURE PROCESS MO PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITITVE STRATEG ROTHWELL R, 1994, HDB IND INNOVATION TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I NR 16 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 60 IS 3 BP 247 EP 262 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 184UP UT ISI:000079632400004 ER PT J AU Tseng, FM Tzeng, GH Yu, HC TI Fuzzy seasonal time series for forecasting the production value of the mechanical industry in Taiwan SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ENROLLMENTS; MODELS AB Based on the seasonal time series ARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)(s) model (SARIMA) and fuzzy regression model, we combine the advantages of two methods to propose a procedure of fuzzy seasonal time series and apply this method to forecasting the production value of the mechanical industry in Taiwan. The intention of the article is to provide the enterprises, in this era of diversified management, with a fresh method to conduct short-term prediction for the future in the hope that these enterprises can perform more accurate planning. This method includes interval models with interval parameters and provides the possibility distribution of future value. From the results of practical application to the mechanical industry, it can be shown that this method makes good forecasts. Further, this method makes it possible for decision makers to forecast the possible situations based on fewer observations than the SARIMA model and has the basis of pre-procedure for fuzzy time series. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Tzeng, GH, 1001 Ta Hsieh Rd, Hsinchu, Taiwan. CR *I EC RES, 1996, TAIW YB MECH IND *I MECH IND IND TE, 1997, 1997 PRES POS TREND BOX GP, 1976, TIME SERIES ANAL FOR CHEN SM, 1996, FUZZY SET SYST, V81, P311 DUBOIS D, 1978, INT J SYST SCI, V9, P613 DUBOIS D, 1980, THEORY APPL FUZZY SE ISHIBUCHI H, 1988, J JAPAN SOC IND ENG, V40, P312 SONG Q, 1993, FUZZY SET SYST, V54, P1 SONG Q, 1993, FUZZY SET SYST, V54, P269 SONG Q, 1994, FUZZY SET SYST, V62, P1 TANAKA H, 1982, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V12, P903 TANAKA H, 1987, FUZZY SET SYST, V24, P363 TANAKA H, 1992, FUZZY REGRESSION ANA, P47 WATADA J, 1992, FUZZY REGRESSION ANA, P211 NR 14 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 60 IS 3 BP 263 EP 273 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 184UP UT ISI:000079632400005 ER PT J AU Sun, JW Meristo, T TI Measurement of dematerialization/materialization: A case analysis of energy saving and decarbonization in OECD countries, 1960-95 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INTENSITY; DECOMPOSITION; CONSUMPTION AB This article establishes a conceptual framework for dematerialization and materialization, and develops a complete decomposition model for measuring them. Based on our conceptual framework and method, dematerialization in the energy use of the OECD from 1960 to 1995 has been analyzed. During this period, the increase in energy demand was 3597.95 Mtoe. However, the improvement of energy efficiency decreased energy demand by 827.20 Mtoe, and structural shifts decreased energy demand by 139.04 Mtoe. Thus, real energy demand only increased by 2631.71 Mtoe, and the energy saved was 966.24 Mtoe and the energy saving rate was 17.98% for this period. The energy saving rate was about 0.56% per year. In the same period, the increase of CO2 emissions was 9672.95 Mton. The fuel switching, the improvement of energy efficiency, and structural shifts decreased CO2 emissions by 1899.67, 2150.31, and 379.07 Mton, respectively. Real CO, emissions only increased by 5243.93 Mton, the decarbon was 4429.02 Mton and the decarbonization rate for the period was 29.57%. The decarbon rate was about 0.997% per year. These results show that significant dematerialization has been achieved in the OECD during this period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Turku Sch Econ, Finland Futures Res Ctr, FIN-20521 Turku, Finland. RP Sun, JW, Turku Sch Econ, Finland Futures Res Ctr, POB 110, FIN-20521 Turku, Finland. EM Jsun@abo.fi CR *OECD, 1966, ENERGY POLICY PROBLE BERNARDINI O, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P431 BOYD GA, 1988, ENERG ECON, V10, P309 CARRELLI C, 1996, NETWORKS PEOPLE THEI HERMAN R, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P333 HOLLANDER JM, 1996, ENERGY, V21, P273 HOWARTH RB, 1991, ENERG ECON, V13, P135 HOWARTH RB, 1992, ENERGY J, V12, P15 MALASKA P, 1996, GAIA, V5, P302 MALENBAUM W, 1978, WORLD DEMAND RAW MAT NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P1 PARK SH, 1992, ENERG ECON, V14, P265 PARK SH, 1993, ENERGY, V18, P843 SUN JW, 1996, QUANTITATIVE ANAL A4 SUN JW, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P85 NR 15 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 60 IS 3 BP 275 EP 292 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 184UP UT ISI:000079632400006 ER PT J AU Hoos, IR TI The anatomy of a decision SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Hoos, IR, 805B Longwood Towers,20 Chapel St, Brookline, MA USA. CR CLIFFORD F, 1998, LOS ANGELES TIM 1103 LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY PRESTON MD, 1998, BOSTON GLOBE 1113 WHEELER JA, 1998, GEONS BLACK HOLES QU, P188 NR 4 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1999 VL 60 IS 3 BP 295 EP 297 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 184UP UT ISI:000079632400007 ER PT J AU De Souza, HM Young, T Burton, MP TI Factors influencing the adoption of sustainable agricultural technologies - Evidence from the state of Espirito Santo, Brazil SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DURATION DATA AB A dynamic econometric framework (duration analysis) is used to analyze the determinants of farmers' decisions on whether or not to adopt low-external-input and sustainable agriculture (LEISA) technology. A wide range of potential determinants (both economic and non-economic) are considered. Our results suggest that the probability of a farmer adopting this technology increased if the farmer was more integrated with farmers' organizations, had contacts with nongovernmental organizations, was aware of the negative effect of chemicals on health and the environment, could rely on family labor, and had a farm located in an area with better soil conditions. On the other hand, the probability of adoption was reduced by increases in farm size. In addition, time-varying economic variables outside farmers' control were found to be significant determinants of adoption and the rate of diffusion. Changes in relative prices were particularly influential. Specifically, the diffusion of sustainable technology accelerated when declining output prices squeezed agricultural profit and many farmers faced difficulties in buying external inputs. Similarly, when labor became relatively cheap in periods of economic crisis, low-external-input practices became a more attractive option for family smallholdings. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Manchester, Sch Econ Studies, CAFRE, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. Univ Fed Sao Carlos, Dept Prod Engn, BR-13560 Sao Carlos, SP, Brazil. Univ Western Australia, Fac Agr, Nedlands, WA 6009, Australia. RP Young, T, Univ Manchester, Sch Econ Studies, CAFRE, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. CR BURTON M, 1997, 9724 U MANCH SCH EC CALETTO C, 1996, 791 U CAL BERK DEP A DESOUZA HM, 1996, THESIS U MANCHESTER DSOUZA G, 1993, AGR RESOURCE EC REV, V22, P159 FEDER G, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P215 GREENE WH, 1992, LIMDEP USERS MANUAL HAMERLE A, 1989, APPL STAT-J ROY ST C, V38, P127 HANNAN TH, 1984, RAND J ECON, V15, P328 HANNAN TH, 1987, ECONOMICA, V54, P155 HENNING J, 1994, EC ORGANIC FARMING I KALBFLEICH JD, 1980, STAT ANLA FAILURE TI KIEFER NM, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P646 LANCASTER T, 1979, ECONOMETRICA, V47, P939 LANCASTER T, 1990, ECONOMETRIC ANAL TRA LAVARAJ UA, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P355 LEVIN SG, 1987, REV ECON STAT, V69, P12 MADDEN JP, 1990, SUSTAINABLE AGR SYST MONTEIRO MJC, 1994, REVISAO METODOLOGIA NOWAK PJ, 1987, RURAL SOCIOL, V52, P208 REIJNTJES C, 1992, FARMING FUTURE INTRO NR 20 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 60 IS 2 BP 97 EP 112 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GV UT ISI:000077713100001 ER PT J AU Roux-Dufort, C Metais, E TI Building core competencies in crisis management through organizational learning - The case of the French nuclear power producer SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID HIGH-RELIABILITY ORGANIZATIONS AB Drawing from the resource-based theory of the firm, we develop a conceptual framework to show how organizational learning helps companies build a set of embedded knowledge assets (core competencies). The evolution of the core competencies over time depends on the ability of the firm to maintain a high level of organizational learning. In this article, we take the case of the French nuclear industry to illustrate how the most powerful French electricity producer and supplier, EDF, had succeeded, for 20 years, in building a core competence in nuclear risk and crisis management. Referring to the future deregulation of the European electricity market and the fierce competition of substitute resources of energy, the article shows that nuclear safety is a crucial issue for the survival of EDF and the European nuclear industry. We explore how EDF has learned from Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986 to improve and enrich continuously its core competence in risk and crisis management. We distinguished three phases in the learning process of EDF: the technical phase (1977-1982), the human phase (1982-1989), and the cultural phase (1989-1995). Each phase is analyzed as a step toward a greater awareness of the multidimensional nature of risk and crisis management. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 EDHEC Grad Sch Management, Dept Management & Strategy, F-59046 Lille, France. RP Roux-Dufort, C, EDHEC Grad Sch Management, Dept Management & Strategy, 58 Rue du Port, F-59046 Lille, France. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 60 IS 2 BP 113 EP 127 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GV UT ISI:000077713100002 ER PT J AU Islas, J TI The gas turbine: A new technological paradigm in electricity generation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION AB The use of gas turbines in the electric industry of many countries has beep increasing. Their demand now represents more than 50% of the world market of thermal power plants. In this article we test the paradigm concept to explain the technological change that represents the gas turbine in electricity generation. We also discuss the limits and problems of this concept to understand the technological change in the power industry. Finally, we propose possibilities to extend this concept to make it more operational in a real problem of technological change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Natl Univ Mexico, Energy Res Ctr, Mexico City, DF, Mexico. RP Islas, J, Apdo Postal 34, Temixco, Morelos, Mexico. EM jis@mazatl.cie.unam.mx CR *AER PUBL INC, 1979, GEN EL 7 DEC PROGR H *FIN TIM BUS INF L, 1992, FT INT GAS REP ABERNATHY WJ, 1975, OMEGA, V3, P639 ARROW K, 1962, REV ECON STUD, P155 ARTHUR WB, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P590 BAGDER L, 1989, NEW DEV US TECHNOLOG CHAMBADAL P, 1976, COLLECTION DIRECTION CONSTANT EW, 1980, ORIGINS TURBOJET REV DAVID PA, 1995, TECHNICAL CHOICE INN DEBRESSON C, 1991, J EVOLUTIONARY EC, V1, P241 DOMINGUEZ C, 1986, THESIS PARIS 11 NANT DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 DOSI G, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P1120 FOSTER R, 1986, INNOVATION AVANTAGE FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYEMENT TECHNI FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P38 FREEMAN C, 1991, ENJEUX CHANGEMENT TE GAFFARD JL, 1990, EC IND INNOVATION GILLE B, 1978, ENCY PLEIADE GREENE DL, 1992, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V17, P537 HAUP G, 1990, SIEMENS REV JUN HIRSH RF, 1989, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORM JOSKOW PL, 1987, ENERGY J, V8, P17 KEMP R, 1992, FUTURES, V24, P437 KEMP R, 1994, MERIT PREST NR TECHN, P1 KLINE JS, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG LANDRIEU G, 1989, REV ENERGIE, V414, P907 LEGENDRE R, 1967, DOMAINES DIVERS EMPL MARTIN JM, 1978, PCM-PREM PERS COMPUT, V4, P15 MAUNOURY JL, 1968, GENESE INNOVATIONS MEYER A, 1939, P I MECH ENG, V141, P197 MOSS S, 1944, T ASME JUL, P351 NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 NOACK WG, 1941, REV BROWN BOVERI AUG, P183 ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL ROSENBERG N, 1982, BLACK BOX, P141 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC, P1 SAMPERIO JI, 1995, THESIS IEPE GRENOBLE SAVIOTTI PP, 1986, FUTURES, V18, P773 SIMONDON G, 1958, MODE EXISTENCE OBJET WILLIAMS RH, 1986, IEEE TECHNOLOGY 0329 WILLIAMS RH, 1988, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V13, P429 WILLINGER M, 1993, REV EC IND, V65, P7 ZUSCOVITCH E, 1984, THESIS U L PASTEURS, P443 NR 44 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 60 IS 2 BP 129 EP 148 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GV UT ISI:000077713100003 ER PT J AU Dierckx, MAF Stroeken, JHM TI Information technology and innovation in small and medium-sized enterprises SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article is based on a recent report from the Dutch Council for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), in which the possible application of information technology in small enterprises is studied. We start with a study of the relationship between information technology and innovation in SMEs. Next, an innovation model is developed and applied to a typical branch of industry in this respect (i.e., the car disassembly sector). Two analytic methods are used: the techno-economic scenario analysis and the actor-oriented social construction of technology (SCOT) method. Finally, a number of general conclusions are drawn, of which the need for cooperation and networking is foremost. We close with some policy recommendations. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Eindhoven Univ Technol, Technol & Soc Program, Fac Technol Management, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. RP Stroeken, JHM, Eindhoven Univ Technol, Technol & Soc Program, Fac Technol Management, Tema Bldg 0-05,POB 513, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. CR *RMK, 1996, BET INF MIDD KLEINB *RMK, 1997, FEIT POT GEBR INF MK *RMK, 1997, MUIS HAND INF SAM AM BIJKER W, 1990, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION COLLINS H, 1981, SOC STUD SCI, P3 DELURGIO SA, 1998, FORECASTING PRINCIPL DUTTON W, 1996, INFORMATION COMMUNIC ESTER P, 1997, MAKERS TOEKOMST FRAMBACH R, 1992, TECHNOLOGIE STRATEGI GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG STROEKEN J, 1994, BANK EFFECTENBED JUN STROEKEN J, 1998, PROMETHEUS VANDOORN J, 1978, FORECASTING METHODEN NR 14 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 60 IS 2 BP 149 EP 166 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GV UT ISI:000077713100004 ER PT J AU Duncan, JF TI Chemistry of social interactions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The sigmoid substitution curves widely discussed by Marchetti, Modis, and others are modelled on the basis of interactions between the two entities involved, which might be people, businesses, macro-economic variables, environmental features or chemical compounds. The model uses Eyring rate theory commonly applied to chemical kinetics; and chain reaction theory, due to Semenoff. The definitive equations are derived and applied in this article to a range of interactions from the purely physical to completely social. Sigmoid curves may derive either from an exchange of physical features; or in the social field, ideas. In both cases they are propagated by a chain reaction. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) Both types can be successfully modelled in terms of the theory presented. (2) Both types span a range of completion times which overlap. Consequently there is no reason from this work to regard physical and social interactions as essentially different. (3) Social interactions usually have a low activation energy, E double dagger, often 5.76 kJ/mole compared with 87.8 kJ/mole for the chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen. (4) Differences between the rates of substitution of ideas is usually determined by the rate of encounter of the two entities involved (A). Although these differences may vary by a factor of ten, all social interactions were found to fall within that range, and therefore the rate of exchange of ideas between different people is remarkably similar. (5) The interaction time, tau, is equal to 44/Delta t where Delta t is the time from 10% to 90% completion of the substitution. Although there is no direct evidence it is a reasonable conclusion that what happens on the long term (Delta t) is determined by what ideas are exchanged in the short term (tau). (6) The work opens up the prospect of controlled social tests which will provide insights into the factors governing social change. Other minor conclusions are drawn throughout the paper in the environment, business, economics and social change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Thorpe End Farm, Mahau Sound, New Zealand. Victoria Univ Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand. RP Duncan, JF, Thorpe End Farm, R D 2 Picton, Mahau Sound, New Zealand. CR BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RYTHMS EC DUNCAN JF, 1318 NZ FUT TRUST FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GLASTONE S, 1954, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL CH KONDRATIEFF N, 1984, LONG WAVE CYCLE LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MALLMANN CA, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V59, P1 MARCHETTI C, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P345 MARCHETTI C, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V14, P191 MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MAYUGA MN, 1973, FOCUS ENV GEOLOGY, P347 PHILPOTT BP, 1973, EC MECH PROGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT CHAOS SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES THEO SEMENOFF N, 1935, CHEM KINETICS CHAIN SIVARD RL, 1987, WORLD MILITARY SOCIA STEWART HB, 1991, FUTURE RES Q, V7, P6 STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA NR 18 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1999 VL 60 IS 2 BP 167 EP 198 PG 32 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GV UT ISI:000077713100005 ER PT J AU Kuwahara, T TI Technology forecasting activities in Japan SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success-and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/ agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the "language" to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 NISTEP, Technol Forecast Res Team, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. RP Kuwahara, T, NISTEP, Technol Forecast Res Team, Chiyoda Ku, 1-11-39 Nagata Cho, Tokyo 100, Japan. CR *AG IND SCI TECHN, 1994, IND SCI TECHN DEV GU *EC PLANN AG, 1991, TECHN FOR 2010 *HUM SCI FDN, 1991, SURV FUT TRENDS HUM *JAP FDN AG HLTH, 1995, LONG SCI COMPR INF S *MIN INT TRAD IND, 1992, IND TECHN TRENDS TAS *N AT I ENV STUD, 1990, STUD LONG TERM PRED *NISTEP ISI, 1994, 33 NISTEP *NISTEP, 1992, 25 NISTEP *NISTEP, 1997, 52 NISTEP *SCI TECHN AG, 1997, WHI PAP SCI TECHN 19 CUHLS K, 1998, TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT NR 11 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 60 IS 1 BP 5 EP 14 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GZ UT ISI:000077713500002 ER PT J AU Blind, K Cuhls, K Grupp, H TI Current foresight activities in central Europe SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY AB During the early 1990s, technology foresight has become much more widespread. First pioneered in the United States and later in Japan, it has now spread to continental Europe. One of the first engagements in modern national foresight occurred in the Netherlands. The task is to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest socio-economic benefits. The decentralized foresight approaches are less holistic than elsewhere and are concerned with selected areas. In Germany, parallel approaches have been adopted for looking systematically into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society. In an era characterized by ever fiercer global economic competition, and with the burden of unifying two different science systems and over-stretched public expenditure budgets, the German governments on federal and state levels and indeed the public are coming to expect more direct economic and social benefits from science in return to their investment. :Decentralized types of foresight are also observed in Austria, whereas in Hungary the first attempts to arrive at a foresight program seem to be modelled after British experiences. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Informat Res, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. Tech Univ Berlin, Fac Econ & Management, D-1000 Berlin, Germany. RP Grupp, H, Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Informat Res, Breslauer Str 48, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. CR *BUND BILD WISS FO, 1996, DELPH BER 1995 ENTW *BUND FORSCH TECHN, 1993, DTSCH DELPH BER ENTW *FOR STEER COMM VI, 1996, DUTCH RES VIEW FUT *OECD, 1987, REV NAT SCI TECHN PO *OECD, 1990, MAIN SCI TECHN IND *OECD, 1993, SCI TECHN INN POL HU *OECD, 1995, REV REC DEV SCI TECH BALAZS K, 1996, UNPUB TECHNOLUGIA EL BARDECKI MJ, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P281 BECHER G, 1995, EC SCI TECHNOLOGY IN, V4 BREINER S, 1994, R D MANAGEMENT, V24 CAMERON H, 1996, TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT COATES JF, 1985, FUTURES RES Q, V3, P29 CUHLS K, 1994, OUTLOOK JAPANESE GER CUHLS K, 1996, J SCI POLICY RES MAN, V11, P197 CUHLS K, 1996, SCI TECHNOLOGY GERMA, P63 GRUPP H, 1992, DYNAMICS SCI BASED I GRUPP H, 1992, IDENTIFICATION EMERG GRUPP H, 1993, TECHNOLOGIE BEGINN 2 GRUPP H, 1994, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V6, P379 GRUPP H, 1994, UK GERM HIGH LEV TAL GRUPP H, 1995, DELPHI REPORT GRUPP H, 1996, SCI TECHNOLOGY IND S, V17, P71 GRUPP H, 1997, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P58 GRUPP H, 1998, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V49, P18 IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI PICKIN KUHLMANN S, 1995, EVALUATION TECHNOLOG, V12 MANDELBROT BB, 1982, FRACTAL GEOMETRY NAT MARTIN BR, 1989, RES FORESIGHT PRIORI MARTIN BR, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P139 MARTIN JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEYERKRAHMER F, 1990, LONGMAN GUIDE WORLD REISS T, 1995, RECHT POLITIK GESUND, V1, P49 ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V39, P238 SKUMANICH M, 1996, FORESIGHTING WORLD R TICHY G, 1997, AUSTRIA INNOVATION, V1, P30 NR 36 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 60 IS 1 BP 15 EP 35 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GZ UT ISI:000077713500003 ER PT J AU Martin, BR Johnston, R TI Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system - Experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SCIENCE AB Since 1990, technology foresight has spread rapidly. We begin by analyzing the reasons for this before examining the specific political background to technology foresight in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. The article analyzes and compares the approaches to foresight in these countries, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We then propose a new rationale for technology foresight, which centers on its role in "wiring up" and thereby strengthening the national innovation system, before arriving at a number of conclusions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Sussex, Sci Policy Res Unit, Brighton BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England. Univ Sydney, Australian Ctr Innovat & Int Competitiveness, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. RP Martin, BR, Univ Sussex, Sci Policy Res Unit, Brighton BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England. CR 1997, NEWSLETTER MORST, V8, P1 *ASTEC, 1991, BAS RES NAT OBJ 1981 *ASTEC, 1996, DEV LONG TERM STRAT *CHIEF SCI DEP IND, 1997, PRIOR MATT *CSIRO, 1991, CSIRO PRIOR DET 1990 *ECD SCI TECHN IND, 1997, NAT INN SYST *MORST, 1996, RS T 2010 STRAT OV R *OFF SCI TECHN, 1993, REAL OUJR POT STRAT *OFF SCI TECHN, 1995, PROGR PARTN *OFF SCI TECHN, 1997, FOR BUS WINN ADV *OFF SCI TECHN, 1997, WINN FOR BOURKE P, 1995, RECENT FORESIGHT STU CALLON M, 1994, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V19, P395 DAVID P, 1995, SCI TECHNOLOGY IND R, V16, P13 DENHARTOG P, 1995, ASSESSING DISTRIBUTI FREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNOLOGY EC PERFOR GEORGHIOU L, 1996, FUTURES, V28, P359 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI PICKIN IRVINE J, 1989, RES FORESIGHT CREATI JOHNSTON R, 1996, AUSTR SCI PROFILE JOHNSTON R, 1997, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P74 JOHNSTON R, 1997, P TECHN FOR S CHIANG, P57 KATZ JS, 1995, 3 STEEP U SUSS KODAMA F, 1992, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P70 LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL INNOVATION SYST MARTIN BR, 1989, RES FORESIGHT PRIORI MARTIN BR, 1993, RES FORESIGHT EXPLOI MARTIN BR, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P139 MARTIN BR, 1996, RELATIONSHIP PUBLICL, P27 MARTIN BR, 1996, RES EVALUAT, V6, P158 MARTIN BR, 1996, STI REV, V17, P15 MARTIN BR, 1997, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P31 MATHEWS J, 1996, J IND STUDIES, V3, P1 NELSON R, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST NUMMINEN S, 1996, NATL INNOVATION SYST REEVE N, 1997, TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, P125 SHEEHAN PJ, 1995, AUSTR KNOWLEDGE EC A SMITH K, NORWEGIAN NATL INNOV STEWART W, 1997, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P48 NR 40 TC 23 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 60 IS 1 BP 37 EP 54 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GZ UT ISI:000077713500004 ER PT J AU Heraud, JA Cuhls, K TI Current foresight activities in France, Spain, and Italy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many European countries, including France, Spain, and Italy. The French context is rather specific in the sense that public planning and foresight (prospective) are an old tradition starting in the early post war period, but was progressively abandoned until its international revival during the 1990s. The recent experiences combine a mix of methods including the experimental reproduction of foreign experiences far long-term science and technology foresight (allowing comparisons of the experts' opinions between countries) and the development of a specific study of critical technologies in the shorter term with the direct aim of orienting and improving the microeconomic strategies in the country. Spain and Italy started their own tests of foresight procedures later. The diffusion of foresight approaches and methods is certainly influenced by cultural proximities between countries of Roman civilization, but the different national settings led to relatively diverse experiences. International comparisons reveal the wide variety of methods and implementations that can be contemplated at present in Europe-a living laboratory of public foresight experiences. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. Univ Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France. RP Cuhls, K, Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res, Breslauer Str 48, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. CR *EUR COMM, 1996, TECHN FOR EUR RES PE *MIN HIGH ED RES, 1995, ENQ TECHN FUT METH D *MIN IND, 1996, 100 TECHN CLES IND F *OECD, 1996, STI REV, V17 *OFF SCI TECHN, 1995, NAT CRIT TECHN REP *OFF SCI TECHN, 1998, SCI TECHN IND BERGER G, 1967, ETAPES PROSPECTIVE CABRERA JA, 1997, S T FORESIGHT EXERCI CUHLS K, 1994, OUTLOOK JAPANESE GER FONDAZIONE R, 1996, NATL PRIORITIES IND GORDON TJ, 1964, P2982 RAND CORP GRUPP H, 1991, INT VERGLEICH ZEHN L, V2 GRUPP H, 1993, SCHRIFTENREIHE FRAUN, V3 GRUPP H, 1994, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V6, P379 LANZAVECCHIA G, 1996, UNPUB EXP GROUP M TE MARTINEZ JP, 1995, ESCENARIO FUTURO SER MASSE P, 1965, PLAN ANTIHASARD PEREDA JAM, 1995, ANAL METODOS PROSPEC QUEVREUX A, 1996, STI REV, V17 ROVEDA C, 1996, PRIORITA NAZIONALI R TEZANOS JF, 1997, ESTUDIO DELPHI TENEN NR 21 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 60 IS 1 BP 55 EP 70 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GZ UT ISI:000077713500005 ER PT J AU Shin, T Hong, SK Grupp, H TI Technology foresight activities in Korea and in countries closing the technology gap SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article discusses technology foresight in selected countries which were politically dependent (colonial) before World War II and considered as "under-developed" in the post war period. Most of them show considerable economic dynamism in the 1990s, which is not always based on their own scientific and technological capability. For this group of countries, national exercises in technology foresight are likely to be an important tool in planning the strategic direction for science and technology development in order to catch up economically as well as socially. In Korea, which has recently become an OECD member, comparative advantage based on factors such as low wages and protected industries are no longer effective as the economy is now wide open to the world. Foresight is being used to look at comparative advantages based on Korea's own knowledge-creating activities. In southeast Asian countries, foresight is still in an infant stage, but most of these have medium-term planning cycles and have undertaken longer-term vision studies. In South Africa, a national foresight project is running, as is an adapting foresight process to make the large national research organization fit. In Latin America, an agenda has been set up which indicates the desire, of several countries to engage in foresight activities using different approaches. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Minist Sci & Technol, Kwacheon 427760, South Korea. Sungkyunkwan Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Suwon, South Korea. Tech Univ Berlin, Fac Econ & Management, D-1000 Berlin, Germany. Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Shin, T, Minist Sci & Technol, 1 Joongang Dong, Kwacheon 427760, South Korea. CR *NAT SCI TECHN DEV, 1996, IMP FUT TECHN THAIL BRANSCOMB LM, 1996, KOREA TURNING POINT CHAKRAVARTI AK, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P155 GRUPP H, 1998, FDN EC INNOVATION TH LIM K, 1997, 7 INT FOR TECHN MAN MARTIN BR, 1989, RES FORESIGHT PRIORI MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA SHIN T, 1994, 1 SCI TECHNOLOGY FOR SHIN T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P31 SHIN T, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P125 SUTRASNO T, 1997, TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, P81 VILAITHONG T, 1997, TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, P141 YANGA DM, 1997, TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, P131 YUTHAVONG Y, 1997, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P97 NR 14 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 60 IS 1 BP 71 EP 84 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GZ UT ISI:000077713500006 ER PT J AU Grupp, H Linstone, HA TI National technology foresight activities around the globe - Resurrection and new paradigms SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DELPHI AB This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed "foresight." While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the "wiring up") for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Portland State Univ, Portland, OR 97207 USA. Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany. Tech Univ Berlin, Fac Econ & Management, D-1000 Berlin, Germany. RP Linstone, HA, 70 Wheatherstone Court, Lake Oswego, OR 97035 USA. CR *COUNC ENV QUAL DE, 1980, GLOB 2000 REP PRES *EUR COMM, 1997, 17639 EUR *OECD, 1996, SCI TECHN IND REV, V17 BARDECKI MJ, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P281 BUSH V, 1945, SCI ENDLESS FRONTIER COATES JF, 1985, FUTURES RES Q SUM, P29 CUHLS K, 1998, TECHNIKVORAUSSCHAU J DALKEY NC, 1969, DELPHI METHOD EXPT S GAVIGAN JP, 1997, OVERVIEW RECENT EURO GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GREIDER W, 1997, 1 WORLD READY NOT MA GRUPP H, 1992, DYNAMICS SCI BASED I GRUPP H, 1994, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V6, P379 GRUPP H, 1998, FDN EC INNOVATION TH HADER M, 1995, ZUMA NACHRICHTEN, V37 HELMER O, 1959, MANAGE SCI, V6, P5 HOUNSHELL DA, 1996, NAT SEM SER SCI TECH IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI PICKIN JANTSCH E, 1967, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA KAPLAN A, 1950, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V14, P93 KUWAHARA T, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V60, P5 LINSTONE H, 1997, WORLD FUT SOC M SAN LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHODS TECHN LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY MARTIN BR, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P139 MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P235 WOUDENBERG F, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V40, P131 NR 29 TC 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1999 VL 60 IS 1 BP 85 EP 94 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 151GZ UT ISI:000077713500007 ER PT J AU Ayres, RU TI Technological progress: A proposed measure SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID EXERGY CONVERSION; GROWTH; INNOVATION; SOCIETY AB The article suggests a direct measure of technological progress that can be quantified with reasonable confidence on the basis of historical data. The proposed measure is the efficiency with which resources (mainly energy sources) are converted into final services. It decomposes into two components, namely the thermodynamic efficiency of converting an energy source into mechanical work and the efficiency with which mechanical work is used to produce final services. The first part of this can be estimated, by sector, with fair accuracy. The second part can only be estimated with reasonable accuracy in a few cases (such as transportation and illumination), but the results are sufficient to permit some plausible extrapolation. The proposed measure is hopefully of interest in itself. But perhaps it is more important insofar as it suggests a way to construct an economic production function that explicitly reflects technological change, rather than treating "technical progress" as an unexplained residual. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 INSEAD, Ctr Management Environm Resources, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. RP Ayres, RU, INSEAD, Ctr Management Environm Resources, Blvd Constance, F-77305 Fontainebleau, France. CR ALLEN EL, 1976, PUBLICATION OAK RIDG ALMON C, 1966, AM EC 1975 INTERINDU ARROW KJ, 1961, REV ECON STAT, V43, P225 AYRES RU, 1989, RR8912 INT I APPL SY AYRES RU, 1997, ENERGY INT J BOULDING KE, 1966, ESSAYS 6 RFF FORUM BRIDGES J, 1973, UNDERSTANDING NATL E CARNAHAN W, 1975, 399 AM PHYS SOC CHRISTENSEN LR, 1973, REV ECON STAT, V55, P28 COBB CW, 1928, AM EC REV S MAR DEWHURST JF, 1995, AM NEEDS RESOURCES N DOUGLAS PH, 1948, AM ECON REV, V38, P1 DUCHIN F, 1985, METROECONOMICA, V37, P269 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1971, ENTROPY LAW EC PROCE GROSSMAN GM, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P23 GYFTOPOULOS EP, 1974, SERIES FORD FDN ENER HALL EH, 1975, EVALUATION THEORETIC, P772 HICKS JR, 1932, THEORY WAGES HIRST E, 1973, SCIENCE, V179, P1299 HUDSON EA, 1974, BELL J ECON, V5, P461 JORGENSON DW, 1987, PRODUCTIVITY US EC G LUCAS RE, 1988, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MAHAJAN V, 1977, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V1, P12 MANNE AS, 1977, MODELING ENERGY EC I MANNE AS, 1981, EA1724 EL POW RES I MANNE AS, 1994, ADV SYSTEMS ANAL MOD NORDHAUS WD, 1973, ECON J, V83, P1156 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM ORAVETZ M, 1996, MODELING US LONG TER ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, S71 ROMER PM, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P3 SCHURR SH, 1960, ENERGY AM EC 1850 19 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 SZARGUT J, 1988, EXERGY ANAL THERMAL VERDOORN PJ, 1951, ECONOMETRICA, V19, P209 WALL G, 1977, EXERGY USEFUL CONCEP, P77 WALL G, 1987, RESOUR ENERG, V9, P55 WALL G, 1990, ENERGY, V15, P435 NR 41 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 59 IS 3 BP 213 EP 233 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 129YA UT ISI:000076490600001 ER PT J AU Esposito, E Mastroianni, M TI Technological evolution of personal computers and market implications SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The aim of this article is to highlight how technological innovation in the personal computer industry is modifying both market structure and relationships between manufacturers and customers. To measure technological change a model based on the technical approach has been used. This model considers the product as a set of techno-economic characteristics. About 650 models on the personal computer market between 1988 and 1994 were considered. Two main results emerge from this article: technical innovation has reduced the distance between the conservative user and the innovative user insofar as the former can nowadays purchase, at little extra cost, high performance personal computers; whereas in the past, the personal computer was considered a machine for processing information and working on texts, today it has become an indispensable tool for a variety of multimedia services, and consequently, technological innovation has pushed firms out of the personal computer product-selling phase into a service-offering phase. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Naples Federico II, Fac Engn, Dept Comp Sci & Syst, DIS,ODISSEO, I-80124 Naples, Italy. RP Esposito, E, Univ Naples Federico II, Fac Engn, Dept Comp Sci & Syst, DIS,ODISSEO, Via Diocleziano 328, I-80124 Naples, Italy. CR *OECD, 1991, SCI TECHN IND *TECH ATL TEAM COM, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P19 ALEXANDER AJ, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P161 ANTONELLI C, 1985, INDUSTRIA, V3, P379 ARCHIBUGI D, 1987, INDUSTRIA, V4, P497 ARCHIBUGI D, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P253 ARCHILLADELIS B, 1987, RES POLICY, V2, P175 ARCHILLADELIS B, 1990, RES POLICY, V1, P1 AYRES RU, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P229 BARANSON J, 1978, TECHNOLOGY MULTINATI BARTEE TC, 1981, BASIC COMPUTER PROGR BASBERG BL, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P131 CACACE N, 1970, INNOVAZIONE PRODOTTI COLLINS P, 1988, RES POLICY, V2, P165 DIDDAY R, 1977, HOME COMPUTER 210 QU DODSON EN, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P129 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC DURAND T, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P361 DUSSAUGE P, 1988, REV FRANCAISE GESTIO, V68, P7 DUSSAUGE P, 1990, REVUE FRANCAISE GEST, V80, P5 DWYER T, 1982, BIT BASIC ESPOSITO A, 1988, INOVAZIONE TECNOLOGI ESPOSITO E, 1987, P 9 C NAZ AIDAA PAL, P526 ESPOSITO E, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P1 FAGERGERG J, 1987, RES POLICY, V2, P87 FREEMAN C, 1984, DESIGN INNOVATION LO GARDINER JP, 1984, DESIGN INNOVATION LO GAYNOR HG, 1996, HDB TECHNOLOGY MANAG GRAVES SB, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P13 HALAL WE, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P69 HILL CT, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA HUGHES K, 1988, RES POLICY, V5, P301 KALTHOFF O, 1993, INDUSTRIA, V2, P279 KNIGHT KE, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P107 LANGLOIS R, 1992, RES POLICY, V4, P297 LEINHARD JH, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P265 LENZ RC, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P245 MAJER H, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P335 MANSFIELD E, 1969, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARTIN J, 1985, NASAS FY 1986 AERONA MARTINO JP, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P341 MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P147 MERINO DN, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P275 MODIS T, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P267 MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P391 MODIS T, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P157 MOWERY D, 1991, STATES FIRMS INT COM, P71 MOWERY DC, 1992, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E NAPOLITANO G, 1989, INDUSTRIA, V4, P637 NARIN F, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P143 PATEL P, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P59 PETERSON DK, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P251 PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADV RAZ B, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P251 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SAHAL D, 1984, OMEGA, V2, P153 SAVIOTTI PP, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P309 SCOTT AJ, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P439 SIRILLI G, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P157 SOETE L, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P101 STEFFENS J, 1994, NEWGAMES STRATEGIC C STEKLER HO, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P419 TEECE DJ, 1992, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V11, P1 TRIPLETT JE, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P285 TYSON L, 1992, WHOS BASHING WHOM TR VANWYK R, 1996, HDB TECHNOLOGY MANAG WALCOFF C, 1983, TECHNIQUES MANAGING YOUNG P, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P375 NR 69 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 59 IS 3 BP 235 EP 254 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 129YA UT ISI:000076490600002 ER PT J AU Smit, FC Pistorius, CWI TI Implications of the dominant design in electronic initiation systems in the south African mining industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGICAL DISCONTINUITIES; INNOVATION; MODEL AB This article analyzes an emerging technological innovation, namely, electronic initiation systems for mining explosives in South Africa. The concept of electronic initiation is presenting itself as a challenge to traditional initiation systems, particularly cap-and-fuse and shock tube technologies. From a technology strategy viewpoint, the challenge is to determine the nature of the managerial decisions that have to be addressed. The Utterback-Abernathy innovation model is used to assess the evolution of the emerging technology; it is found that the technology is still in the fluid phase and that a dominant design has not yet emerged. Since the dominant design is a very important milestone in the evolvement of the product with regard to both the technical and the business aspects, the immediate managerial focus should be on the evaluation factors that may influence the emergence of the dominant design. The emergence of a dominant design is, however, a complex process that depends on the interplay between a myriad of issues, including technological,market, social, economic, and related aspects. The paper anticipates the technological future of the innovation by exploring the factors that may influence the dominant design of electronic initiation systems, and casts the findings in a format that is useful for managerial decision support. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Pretoria, Fac Engn, Inst Technol Innovat, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. CSIR, Aerotek Div, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Pistorius, CWI, Univ Pretoria, Fac Engn, Inst Technol Innovat, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. CR 1995, BUSINESS DAY 0313 1995, MINING WEEKLY 0217 1995, MINING WEEKLY 0303 1995, MINING WEEKLY 0310 1995, WORLD MINING EQUIPME, V19, P50 1996, FINANCIAL MAIL 0216 1996, MINING WEEKLY 0216 *CHAMB MIN S AFR, 1996, STAT TABL *CSIR, 1996, TECHNO BRIEF, V6, P6 ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 BOCK IE, 1996, S S AFR I MIN MET EN BRINKMAN JP, 1989, 1689 COMRO CHILDS J, 1996, COAL, V26 COOPER AC, 1976, BUS HORIZONS, V19, P61 FARRELL J, 1987, PRODUCT STANDARDIZAT, P1 FISHER F, 1983, FOLD SPINDLED MUTILA FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS FOSTER RN, 1998, READINGS MANAGEMENT, P215 LEE JR, 1995, R&D MANAGE, V25, P3 MINING, 1995, FINANCIAL MAIL 1013 PINE BJ, 1993, MASS CUSTOMIZATION SCHNAARS SP, 1986, BUSINESS HORIZON MAR, P27 SMITH FC, 1996, FACTORS INFLUENCED D TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 TUSHMAN ML, 1992, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V14, P311 UTTERBACK JM, 1975, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V3, P639 UTTERBACK JM, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P1 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION NR 30 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 59 IS 3 BP 255 EP 274 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 129YA UT ISI:000076490600003 ER PT J AU Shenhar, AJ Hougui, SZ Dvir, D Tishler, A Sharan, Y TI Understanding the defense conversion dilemma SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Two major sectors of the economy-commercial and defense-are facing extensive change and are undergoing considerable downsizing. The defense sector was forced in recent years to adjust to a post-Cold War era and to find commercial uses for many of its military-related technologies, and the commercial industry is challenged by increased competition, higher productivity goals, and higher demand for quality products and shorter development cycles. Under these circumstances, conversion from defense into commercial activity became inevitable, and joint ventures of defense and commercial companies are common. Yet, many conversion attempts are unsuccessful, with failures attributed to differences in culture, practices, and experience of the two sectors. The purpose of this article is to discuss the defense conversion problem faced by defense contractors for a better understanding of the difficulties associated with conversion efforts. We start by discussing briefly the situation, policy, and environment of the American industrial base-government, defense. We then suggest a specific conceptual framework for analyzing the conversion dilemma. Such a framework may help defense companies during the decision-making process while considering transitions into civilian markets and serve as a basis for additional research on the defense conversion dilemma. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Stevens Inst Technol, Wesley J Howe Sch Technol Management, Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA. Holon Ctr Technol Educ, Dept Technol, Holon, Israel. Tel Aviv Univ, Leon Recanati Grad Sch Business Adm, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel. Tel Aviv Univ, Interdisciplinary Ctr Technol Anal & Forecasting, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel. RP Shenhar, AJ, Stevens Inst Technol, Wesley J Howe Sch Technol Management, Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA. CR 1994, PROGRAM INFORMATION *CTR EC CONV, 1992, CONV COLD WAR EC 63 *CTR STRAT INT STU, 1991, INT COMM MIL TECHN N *DEF CONV COMM, 1992, ADJ DRAWD *NAT COMM EC CONV, 1992, SUCC CONV EXP *SAGE MAN PARTN, 1993, BMDO NEW MEX TECHN T *US C, 1988, OTAISC374 US C, P7 *US C, 1991, OTAISC500 US C, P8 *US C, 1993, OTAITE552 US C *WHIT HOUS, 1991, NAT SEC STRAT US, P30 ADELMAN KL, 1992, FOREIGN AFFAIRS SPR, P29 ADLER PS, 1990, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V25, P25 DANKANYIN RJ, 1994, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN, V1, P11 JACQUES G, 1989, AFFORDING DEFENSE KANTER H, 1993, INTEGRATING DEFENSE MEYER MH, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P806 PAGES ER, 1993, NEXT STEPS BUSINESS PAGES ER, 1995, SAIS REV WIN, P135 PAGES ER, 1998, IMPACT DEFENSE DOWNS, P95 ROBERTS EB, 1985, SLOAN MANAGEMENT SPR, P3 SHENHAR AJ, 1997, HDB TECHNOLOGY MANAG WALLETT RM, 1993, REALIZING PEACE DIVI NR 22 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 59 IS 3 BP 275 EP 289 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 129YA UT ISI:000076490600004 ER PT J AU Uri, ND TI Development and use of biopesticides: Implications of government policy and consumers' preferences SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Biopesticides developed and used in the future will emerge against the backdrop of the environmental effects associated with the use of conventional pesticides and government policies designed to control these effects. In the final analysis, farmers' choices on pesticides will be influenced by the prevailing costs and benefits of conventional pesticides and their alternatives including biopesticides. The outlook for pesticide use is complicated, though some directions can be perceived. There are a number of factors that will serve potentially to impact pesticide use which in turn will affect the development of biopesticides. These include pesticide regulation, the FAIR Act, the crops planted, the management of ecologically based systems, and consumer demand for "green" products. Published 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 USDA, NRCS, RID, Washington, DC 20250 USA. RP Uri, ND, USDA, NRCS, RID, Rm 6243, Washington, DC 20250 USA. CR 1996, FARM CHEM HDB *BIOS SEC INC, 1996, OUTL BIOP *CRC PRESS, 1996, PESTICIDE TOXIC CHEM, V24, P19 *EC RES SER, 1997, AGR RES ENV IND *EPA, 1995, EPA ISS COND APPR FU *NAT FOODS MERCH, 1996, NATURAL FOODS MERCHA, V17, P5 *NAT RES COUNC, 1993, PEST DIETS INF CHILD *NAT RES COUNC, 1995, EC BAS PEST MAN NEW *OFF PEST PROGR, 1996, OFF PEST PROGR ANN R *U MAIN, 1996, B U MAIN MAIN AGR FO, V843 *US C, 1986, OTAF285 US C *US C, 1995, OTAENV636 US C *USDA, 1995, AGR CHEM US FRUIT CR *USDA, 1995, AGR CHEM US VEG CROP ABLER DG, 1992, NE J AGR RESOURCE EC, V21, P93 ASPELIN AL, 1984, PESTICIDE IND SALES BENDER J, 1994, FUTURE HARVEST PESTI CARLSON GA, 1972, PEST CONTROL STRATEG COMANOR S, 1994, AO204 USDA EC RES SE CROPPER ML, 1992, J POLIT ECON, V100, P175 CROPPER ML, 1992, NE J AGR RES EC, V21, P77 EDWARDS CR, 1992, FOOD CROP PESTS ENV FERRO DN, 1996, ELECT IPM TXB HOBAN T, 1993, CONSUMER ATTITUDES F HUNTER C, 1994, 9403 PM CAL ENV PROT JAENICKE E, 1997, MYTHS REALITIES PEST KAHN A, 1971, EC REGULATION LANDIS DA, 1996, ELECT IPM TXB LIN BH, 1994, PEST MANAGEMENT PRAC NIEBLING K, 1995, GENETIC ENG NEWS, P5 OLLINGER M, 1995, 719 USDA EC RES SERV PEASE WS, 1996, PESTICIDE USE CALIFO PORITZ N, 1996, BIOL CONTROL WEEDS 1 RICKER HS, 1997, P 3 NAT IPM S WORKSH RIDGEWAY R, 1994, BIOL BASED PEST CONT SCHERER FM, 1980, IND MARKET STRUCTURE VANDEMAN A, 1994, AIB707 USDA RES TECH ZALOM F, 1992, FOOD CROP PESTS ENV NR 38 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1998 VL 59 IS 3 BP 291 EP 304 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 129YA UT ISI:000076490600005 ER PT J AU Gausemeier, J Fink, A Schlake, O TI Scenario management: An approach to develop future potentials SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID STATES INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES; MULTIPLE SCENARIOS AB In order to deal with growing uncertainties and to preserve their competitiveness, enterprises should identify future success potentials very early and develop them on time. Scenario management is a very powerful method to manage this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that are adjusted precisely to their enterprise. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. The five phases of a scenario project are explained with the aid of a concrete example. It is also shown how scenario management is used to develop corporate or business strategies. Furthermore, it is used to develop similar elements of these strategies, such as mission statements or core competencies. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Gesamthsch Paderborn, Heinz Nixdorf Inst, D-33102 Paderborn, Germany. RP Gausemeier, J, Univ Gesamthsch Paderborn, Heinz Nixdorf Inst, Furstenallee 11, D-33102 Paderborn, Germany. EM afink@hni.uni-paderborn.de CR ANSOFF I, 1990, IMPLANTING STRATEGIC DORNER D, 1992, LOGIK MISSLINGENS ST FINK A, 1995, SZENARIO TECHNIK WER FREEMAN RE, 1984, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT GALWEILER A, 1991, STRATEGISCHE UNTERNE GAUSEMEIER J, 1995, MANAGEMENT Z, V64, P32 GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC GOMEZ P, 1995, PRAXIS GANZHEITLICHE GUASEMEIER J, 1995, SZENARIO MANAGEMENT HAMEL G, 1994, COMPETING FUTURE HUSS W, 1987, LONG RANGE PLANN AUG, P21 JONES P, 1995, SAY IT LIVE IT 50 CO KAHN H, 1968, YEAR 2000 FRAMEWORK LINNEMAN RE, 1979, LONG RANGE PLANN, V12, P83 LINNEMAN RE, 1983, LONG RANGE PLANN, V16, P94 MAKRIDAKIS SG, 1990, FORECASTING PLANNING MANDEL T, 1993, 822 SRI INT MEYERSCHONHERR M, 1992, SZENARIO TECHNIK ALS MITROFF I, 1993, UNBOUNDED MIND BREAK PORTER M, 1992, WETTBEWERBSVORTEILE PUMPIN C, 1992, STRATEGISCHE ERFOLGS SCHLAKE O, 1995, SZENARIO TECHNIK WER SCHLANGE L, 1995, FUTURES, V8, P823 SCHNAARS SP, 1987, LONG RANGE PLANN, V20, P105 SCHOEMAKER PJH, 1995, SLOAN MANAGEMENT WIN, P25 SCHOFIELD P, 1992, PERSONNEL MANAGE APR, P41 SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW PLANNI SENGE PM, 1990, SLOAN MANAGEMENT FAL, P7 SONTHEIMER K, 1970, MOGLICHKETEN GRENZEN ULRICH H, 1991, ANLEITUNG GANZHEITLI, V3 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P139 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P72 WILSON I, 1973, LONG RANGE PLANN JUN, P39 NR 33 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 59 IS 2 BP 111 EP 130 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 121DK UT ISI:000075996800001 ER PT J AU Hammond, GP TI Alternative energy strategies for the United Kingdom revisited - Market competition and sustainability SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Energy and electricity demand forecasts for Britain made in the late 1970s by a research team from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), under the leadership of Gerald Leach, are assessed with the benefit of hindsight. These researchers broke the energy market clown into some 400 end-use, fuel, and appliance categories. They then assessed the potential for energy saving in physical terms, using available technical fixes, for each category. The resulting "bottom-up" projecitons of energy consumption departed from the historic correlation with economic growth, or "top-down" approach. It enabled the IIED team to postulate an alternative, low energy strategy for the United Kingdom to 2025. This study subsequently had a great influence on energy planning elsewhere in the industrialized world, although it was not without its detractors. The IIED energy demand projections are reviewed in the context of both the greatly increased market competition in the UK from 1979 onward, and the need to achieve sustainable development. It is shown that, although total primary energy consumption in the mid-1990s was much in line with the forecasts in the Leach report, the reasons for this and the structure of the newly competitive energy market are quite different from that originally postulated. However, the critics of the IIED team did little better. Long-term energy projections (25-50 years) as one-off, static exercises appear to be of little value for energy planning purposes. They can, as in the case of the Leach report, be a great source of data and ideas, as well as stimulating debate about new strategies. It is argued that rolling projections using a rather broad, sectoral approach that is continuously updated at not greater than five-year intervals, in a similar manner to econometric forecasts, are more useful for energy planning purposes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Bath, Fac Engn & Design, Dept Mech Engn, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. RP Hammond, GP, Univ Bath, Fac Engn & Design, Dept Mech Engn, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. CR 1996, BP STAT REV WORLD EN *CENTR STAT OFF, 1996, EC TRENDS ANN SUPPL *COMM EUR COMM, 1990, EN EUR *DEP ENV, 1996, IND SUST DEV UK *DEP ENV, 1997, BRIT GOV PAN SUST DE *DEP TRAD IND, DIG UK EN STAT 1996 *DEP TRAD IND, 1994, 1 DEP TRAD IND *DEP TRAD IND, 1995, 1 DEP TRAD IND *GREENP, 1994, NO CAS SPEC CAS NUCL *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BRUNDTL *WORLD EN COUNC, 1993, EN TOM WORLD ANDREWS MA, 1991, BIRTH EUROPE BEIJDORFF AF, 1979, ENERGY EFFICIENCY BROOKES LG, 1979, ATOM, V269, P73 BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CHAPMAN P, 1975, FUELS PARADISE ENERG CHESSHIRE JH, 1978, 5 U SUSS SCI POL RES COLLIER JG, NUCL POW CLEAN EN 21 DAY GV, 1980, 1 UK AEA EDN RJ, 1976, ASPECTS ENERGY CONVE, P25 FOLEY G, 1992, ENERGY QUESTION HAMMOND GP, 1993, APPL ENERG, V44, P93 HAMMOND GP, 1997, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG, P125 LEACH G, 1979, LOW ENERGY STRATEGY LEACH G, 1979, NEW SIC, V81, P81 LEACH G, 1986, IEEE P, V133, P315 LEWIS C, 1979, ENERG POLICY, V7, P131 LOVINS AB, 1977, SOFT ENERGY PATHS PATTERSON WC, 1991, ENERGY ALTERNATIVE STOBAUGH R, 1983, ENERGY FUTURE NR 30 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 59 IS 2 BP 131 EP 151 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 121DK UT ISI:000075996800002 ER PT J AU Grupp, H Muent, G Toegel, A TI Firms in new technologies: The case of superconductivity SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article deals with three main questions. First, what types of firms are engaged in the development and exploitation of a young and perhaps future key technology? Second, on which subfields of that particular technology do certain types of firms concentrate? Third, are there any differences in industry structure and firm activity with respect to national technology policies? These aspects are discussed in terms of a case study on superconductivity. The article is empirical in character. The main pillar of the analysis rests on European patent applications, which we use for comparisons among the United States, Japan, and Germany at the corporate and national levels. To discover differences in national technology policies and their impact on corporate activity, we screened available information on sources, volumes, and aims of national programs concerning superconductivity. The period covered ranges from 1981 to 1992 and thus includes the "paradigm" shift to high-temperature superconductivity around 1987. We find that large multinational firms account for the largest part of all external patent applications in this area. Another outcome of the analysis clearly points to rising shares of patenting by small firms after the technological breakthrough in 1987. But most of these small firms have confined their activities to the national environment so far. One possible explanation may be found in differences in national technology programs supporting the start-up new firms in niche markets. Most of these small new firms are located in the United States, where public programs have created favorable conditions and an increasing domestic demand for them. Thus, although the development of new technologies is increasingly international in scope, current industry patterns and firms' traditional specialization in related fields of activity still determine the building up of new science- and technology-based industries. At least in the United States, however, the impact of national technology policy may be felt widely in creating new and shaping existing structures in favor of more competition and faster diffusion. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. Univ Karlsruhe, Econ Fac, Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Grupp, H, Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res, Brerslauer Str 48, D-76139 Karlsruhe, Germany. CR *OFF TECHN ASS, 1990, HIGH TEMP SUP PERSP *SUP IND, 1994, START UPS *SUP IND, 1994, TOP COMP *SUP IND, 1994, WHOS WHO SUP 1994 ACES ZJ, 1990, INNOVATION SMALL FIR AUDRETSCH DB, 1995, INNOVATION IND EVOLU CARLSSON B, 1991, J EVOLUTIONARY EC, V1, P93 COASE RH, 1937, ECONOMICA, V4, P386 COHEN W, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE COHEN WM, 1989, HDB IND ORG, V2 CYERT RM, 1963, BEHAV THEORY FIRM DEBRESSON C, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P685 DOSI G, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P1120 GRANSTRAND O, 1992, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN GRILICHES Z, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P1661 GRUPP H, 1992, DYNAMICS SCI BASED I GRUPP H, 1994, EC TECHNOLOGY LOVEMAN G, 1991, SMALL BUSINESS EC, V3, P1 MARSHALL A, 1920, PRINCIPLES EC NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PENROSE ET, 1959, GROWTH FIRM SCHMOCH U, 1988, TECHNIKPROGNOSEN PAT SCHUMPETER JA, 1911, THEORIE WIRTSCHAFTLI SIMON HA, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P35 TIROLE J, 1988, IND ORG WILLIAMSON OE, 1975, MARKETS HIERARCHIES NR 26 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 59 IS 2 BP 153 EP 166 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 121DK UT ISI:000075996800003 ER PT J AU Scully, GW Bass, FM TI Relative income and investment comparisons among OECD nations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CONVERGENCE HYPOTHESIS; TESTS; COINTEGRATION; COUNTRIES; GROWTH AB Cross-section and time series studies of convergence genera;ly have led to opposite conclusions about the convergence hypothesis. The methodologies employed in these studies suffer certain conceptual or statistical weaknesses. In this study, an entirely different approach is taken. The analytics of convergence is modeled using differential equations and the necessary and sufficient condition for absolute (steady state) convergence is derived. While our results reject absolute convergence for the OECD nations in a differential equation-time only model and in a differential equation model with capital accumulation and time as arguments, we find evidence of relative convergence with a weaker differential equation model. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Texas, Sch Management, Richardson, TX 75083 USA. RP Scully, GW, Univ Texas, Sch Management, Box 830688, Richardson, TX 75083 USA. CR BARRO RJ, 1991, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, P107 BARRO RJ, 1991, Q J ECON, V106, P407 BARRO RJ, 1992, J POLIT ECON, V100, P223 BAUMOL WJ, 1986, AM ECON REV, V76, P1072 BERNARD AB, 1992, EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIO BERNARD AB, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P1216 BERNARD AB, 1996, J ECONOMETRICS, V71, P161 DELONG JB, 1988, AM ECON REV, V78, P1138 DOWRICK S, 1989, AM ECON REV, V79, P1010 EVANS P, 1996, REV ECON STAT, V78, P384 FISHER FM, 1970, ECONOMETRICA, V38, P361 FRIEDMAN M, 1992, J ECON LIT, V30, P2129 JOHANSEN S, 1992, J ECONOMETRICS, V53, P211 MANKIW M, 1992, Q J ECON, V107, P407 PESARAN MH, 1996, J ECONOMETRICS, V71, P117 QUAH D, 1992, INT PATTERNS GROWTH, V1 QUAH D, 1993, SCAND J ECON, V95, P427 REIMERS HE, 1992, STATISTICAL PAPERS, V33, P335 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 SUMMERS R, 1991, Q J ECON, V106, P327 TODA HY, 1995, EC THEORY, V11 NR 21 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 59 IS 2 BP 167 EP 182 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 121DK UT ISI:000075996800004 ER PT J AU Heshmati, A Nafar, N TI A production analysis of time manufacturing industries in Iran SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNICAL CHANGE AB This article is concerned with the estimation of production functions, returns to-scale, and measurement of the rate of technical change using panel data. Technical change is represented by single as well as multiple time trends. The underlying production technology is represented in translog functional form. A random effects model with heteroscedastic variances is used. The models are estimated using the generalized least squares method. The disturbances of cross-sectional units are assumed to be correlated over time. Empirically, our focus is on measuring technical change in Iranian manufacturing industries during the period 1971-1993. Empirical results show that single or multiple time trend representations yield different time behavior of technical change. In the multiple time trends model, we observe a sharp decline in the pattern of technical change in 1978 in relation to the political changes. In the single time trend, as expected, the sharp decline cannot be revealed due to the smooth pattern of technical progress during the entire period of study. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Gothenburg, Dept Econ, S-41180 Gothenburg, Sweden. Univ Gothenburg, Ctr Publ Sector Res CEFOS, S-41180 Gothenburg, Sweden. RP Heshmati, A, Univ Gothenburg, Dept Econ, S-41180 Gothenburg, Sweden. CR BALTAGI BH, 1988, INT ECON REV, V29, P745 BALTAGI BH, 1988, J POLIT ECON, V96, P20 BALTAGI BH, 1995, ECONOMETRIC ANAL PAN CHAMBERS RG, 1988, APPL PRODUCTION ANAL, P7 CHRISTENSEN LR, 1973, REV ECON STAT, V55, P28 GREENE WH, 1993, ECONOMETRIC ANAL, P456 HESHMATI A, 1994, AGR ECON, V11, P171 HESHMATI A, 1996, APPL ECON LETT, V3, P495 HESHMATI A, 1997, 237 GOT U DEP EC HSIAO C, 1986, ANAL PANEL DATA KARSHENAS M, 1990, OIL STATE IND IRAN KHAZAI A, 1982, PRODUCTION RESOURCES KHUMBHAKAR SC, 1991, ECONOMETRIC REV, V10, P101 KMENTA J, 1986, ELEMENTS ECONOMETRIC, P297 KUMBHAKAR SC, 1995, SCAND J ECON, V97, P309 KUMBHAKAR SC, 1996, ECONOMETRIC REV, V15, P275 MAZODIER P, 1978, ANN INSEE, V30, P451 NR 17 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1998 VL 59 IS 2 BP 183 EP 196 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 121DK UT ISI:000075996800005 ER PT J AU Modis, T TI Limits to cycles and harmony in revolutions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article discusses difficulties and rewards associated with research and publication on the topic of cycles. Experiences and highlights are mainly drawn from two books by the author: Predictions, Simon and Schuster, 1992, and Conquering Uncertainty, BusinesWeek Books (McGraw-Hill), New York, 1998. Much of the content of these books has appeared over the years in various articles published in this journal. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Growth Dynam, Geneva, Switzerland. RP Modis, T, Rue Beau Site 2, CH-1203 Geneva, Switzerland. CR FORRESTER J, 1991, SYSTEMS BASED APPROA KONDRATIEFF N, 1992, GRANDS CYCLES CONJON LANDSCHEIDT T, 1996, J COASTAL RES, V17, P371 LANG KC, 1993, SCIENCE, V259, P1349 MARCHETTI C, 1985, ACTION CURVES CLOCKW MARCHETTI C, 1986, FUTURES, V17, P376 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS MODIS T, 1998, CONQUERING UNCERTAIN NR 8 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1998 VL 59 IS 1 BP 33 EP 38 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 113AP UT ISI:000075527400003 ER PT J AU Modelski, G TI Generations and global change SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This comment, occasioned by "A Generational Explanation of Long-term Billow-like Dynamics of Societal Processes," by Carlos A. Mallmann and Guillermo A. Lemarchand, will address three specific questions: (1) what are the processes that are being explained; (2) does the concept of generation help to explain these processes, and what exactly is the length of "generational time" that is appropriate to that explanation; and (3) how good is that explanation, and what might be the role of generations in global evolutionary processes? (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Washington, Dept Polit Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Modelski, G, Univ Washington, Dept Polit Sci, Box 353530, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. CR MANHEIM K, 1952, ESSAYS SOCIOLOGY KNO, P276 MARIAS J, 1968, INT ENCYCL SOC SCI, V6, P88 MODELSKI G, 1988, SEAPOWER GLOBAL POLI MODELSKI G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P23 MODELSKI G, 1996, LEADING SECTORS WORL MODELSKI G, 1997, ANN M SOC SCI HIST A RASLER K, 1994, GREAT POWER GLOBAL S STRAUSS W, 1997, 4 TURNING TOYNBEE A, 1954, STUDY HIST, V9 WIERZBICKI A, 1987, OPTIONS LAXENBURG IL, V3, P10 NR 10 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1998 VL 59 IS 1 BP 39 EP 45 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 113AP UT ISI:000075527400004 ER PT J AU Sheffield, J TI World population growth and the role of annual energy use per capita SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES; SUSTAINABILITY; DECLINE AB Is there a sustainable solution for the world and the resources it needs to maintain a decent standard of living for everybody, at a population very much higher than today's? Clearly, there cannot be both a permanent growth in the use of materials and a sustainable future. In this article, the focus is on the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region; and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to stabilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the social conditions which are believed to influence the fertility rate. Historical trends and near-term projections for energy use and population growth rate are used to indicate a possible path in the future for developing regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and modest cultural changes are invoked in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth For each decade, the incremental increase in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding decrease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach leads to population changes following closely the projections of the World Bank for the period up to 2150. The world energy use is projected to rise from about 9000 million tonnes of oil equivalent today to 15,000 to 21,000 Mtoe/a by the time the world's population has risen from 6 billion to around 12 billion people in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to see whether each developing region might be able to cope with its increased energy demand, without massive energy imports. It seems that the availability of easily moveable, cheap fuels, requiring the use of all energy sources, will be important to allowing the developing world to make the transition to a stable population with a decent standard of living. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Energy Technol Program, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. RP Sheffield, J, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Energy Technol Program, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. CR *EIA, 1990, SRNES9002 US DEP EN *INT EN AG, 1995, WORLD EN OUTL 1995 *PARTN NEW GEN MOT, 1994, PROGR PLAN *UN PUBL DIV, 1994, STAT YB 39 ISS, P692 *UN, 1965, STAT YB *UN, 1975, STAT YB *UN, 1977, STAT YB *UN, 1987, STAT YB *UN, 1994, STAT YB *WORLD EN COUNC, 1995, 1995 SURV EN RES BARTLETT AA, 1994, POPUL ENVIRON, V16, P5 BOS E, 1994, WORLD POPULATION PRO COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART DALY H, 1990, DEVELOPMENT, V3, P45 DUCHIN F, 1995, GLOBAL SCENARIOS LIF GOLDEMBERG J, 1994, AMBIO J HUMAN ENV, V14, P190 GOLDEMBERG J, 1995, ENERGY INSTRUMENT SO, P9 GOLDEMBERG J, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1058 GOUSE SW, 1992, WORLD ENERGY COU DEC, P18 GRUBB MJ, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P198 GRUBLER A, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P237 HOLDREN JP, 1990, SCI AM, V263, P157 HORIUCHI S, 1992, SCIENCE, V257, P761 JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P1 LARSON ED, 1995, BIOMASS PLANTATION E, P154 MARCHETTI C, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V52, P1 MEERMAN J, 1984, POPULATION ENV RES 3, P331 MOREIRA JR, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P74 PALMERINI CG, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P549 PIMENTEL D, 1995, ISSUES AGR BIOETHICS, P215 PIMENTEL D, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P1117 ROBEY B, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P60 SEN A, 1993, SCI AM, V268, P40 SORENSEN B, 1995, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V20, P387 SUAREZ CE, 1995, ENERGY INSTRUMENT SO, P18 WORRELL E, 1995, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE D, V2, P27 NR 36 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1998 VL 59 IS 1 BP 55 EP 87 PG 33 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 113AP UT ISI:000075527400006 ER PT J AU Halal, WE Kull, MD Leffmann, A TI The George Washington University forecast of emerging technologies - A continuous assessment of the technology revolution SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A method is presented for the continuous assessment of major technological advances-the George Washington University (GWU) forecast of emerging technologies. Environmental scanning and trend analysis are used to identify emerging technologies (ETs), and a Delphi-type survey then asks a panel of authorities to estimate the year each advance will occur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that wilt lead each ET. Eighty-five prominent ETs have been identified and grouped into 12 fields: energy, environment, farming and food, computer hardware, computer software, communications, information services, manufacturing and robotics, materials, medicine, space, and transportation. Results are presented from four survey rounds covering the past 8 years, and they are compared longitudinally to estimate the range of variance. The data are also divided into three successive decades to provide scenarios portraying the unfolding waves of innovation that comprise the coming technology revolution. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 George Washington Univ, Dept Management Sci, Sch Business & Publ Management, Washington, DC 20052 USA. RP Halal, WE, George Washington Univ, Dept Management Sci, Sch Business & Publ Management, 2115 G St NW,Monroe Hall 403, Washington, DC 20052 USA. CR BURKE J, 1995, CONNECTIONS, R7 HALAL WE, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P69 HAZEN RM, 1989, BREAKTHROUGH RACE SU JOURDAN D, 1996, DATABASE, V19, P33 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE RENNIE J, 1995, SCI AM SEP, P57 ROBINSON T, 1996, INFORMATION WEE 1118, P106 VONTUNZELMANN GN, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P1 WOUDENBERG F, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V40, P131 NR 9 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1998 VL 59 IS 1 BP 89 EP 110 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA 113AP UT ISI:000075527400007 ER PT J AU Conceicao, P Heitor, MV Gibson, DV Shariq, SS TI The emerging importance of knowledge for development: Implications for technology policy and innovation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; ORIGINS AB What new roles for science and technology policy emerge in the knowledge-based economy we live in? This broad question was largely the motivation for the 1st International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), held in Macau in July 1997. Some of the important contributions to this conference are gathered in this special issue. The aim of this introductory article is to describe the background of current research in the area of science and technology policy, to summarize the contributions to this special issue, and to issue calls for new policy research. While the contributions to this special issue are diverse in terms of methodological approaches, units of analysis, and disciplinary fields, we try to integrate some important conclusions of the background analysis, suggesting further avenues for policy research, namely: (1) balancing innovation and diffusion; (2) beyond the excludability of software; (3) deepen the conceptual framework established through the interactive models of innovation; (4) promoting wetware and software interaction; and (5) the need for an inclusive development. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Inst Super Tecn, P-1096 Lisbon, Portugal. Univ Texas, IC2 Inst Innovat Creativ & Capital, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Heitor, MV, Inst Super Tecn, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1096 Lisbon, Portugal. CR *COUNC EC ADV PRES, 1996, SUPP R D PROM EC GRO *OECD, 1996, EMPL GROWTH KNOWL BA *WORLD BANK, 1997, WORLD DEV REP 1998 K ABRAMOVITZ M, 1996, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH KN ARROW K, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V28, P155 ARTHUR WB, 1994, INCREASING RETURNS P CONCEICAO P, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P203 DASGUPTA P, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P487 DAVID P, 1986, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DAVID P, 1993, P WORLD BANK ANN C D DOSI G, 1996, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH KN EDQUIST C, 1997, SYSTEMS INNOVATION T EDVINSON L, 1997, INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL EVANGELISTA R, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V58, P251 FORAY D, 1996, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH KN FREEMAN C, 1997, EC IND INNOVATION 3 GROSSMAN GM, 1991, INNOVATION GROWTH GL KATZ LF, 1992, Q J ECON, V107, P35 KENDRICK JW, 1994, ATLANTIC ECON J, V22, P1 KLINE SJ, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG KYRIAKOU D, 1997, 12 IPTS, P12 LUCAS RE, 1988, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL SYSTEM INNOVATI MANKIW NG, 1995, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC MOWERY DC, 1989, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E MYERS MB, 1996, ENG INNOVATION, P209 NELSON R, 1959, J POLITICAL EC, V67, P297 NELSON R, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON RR, 1996, TECHNOLOGY R D EC NELSON RR, 1996, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA NELSON RR, 1997, CHALLENGE, V40, P29 NORTH D, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR PACK H, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P55 PASINETTI LL, 1993, STRUCTURAL EC DYNAMI PAVITT K, 1987, SCI PUBL POLICY, V14, P182 PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P79 PRITCHETT L, 1995, HAS ALL ED GONE ROMER P, 1993, J MONETARY ECON, V32, P543 ROMER P, 1993, P WORLD BANK ANN C D ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, S71 ROMER PM, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P3 ROMER PM, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P202 ROSENBERG N, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P165 SAKURAI N, 1996, IMPACT R D TECHNOLOG SOETE L, 1996, IPTS REPORT, V7, P7 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 THUROW LC, 1997, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P95 WILSON RH, 1993, STATES EC POLICY MAK NR 51 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 181 EP 202 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500001 ER PT J AU Conceicao, P Heitor, MV Oliveira, PM TI Expectations for the university in the knowledge-based economy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB As there is an increasing perception of the importance of knowledge creation and distribution for economic prosperity, what kind of role should universities play? Which public policies are more effective in promoting this role? These are the fundamental questions this article addresses. The objective is to understand the expectations for the universities in developed countries under a public policy perspective. More specifically, we discuss public policies that can promote, and those that can hinder, a positive and cumulative role of universities in the knowledge-based economies. The article systematizes the economic relevance of knowledge using recent advancements in the so-called new growth theories. Some empirical manifestations of the increasing importance of knowledge are analyzed. We briefly discuss the mission of the university as it is almost universally perceived today. Universities have been viewed as producers of new codified knowledge through research and as providers of human capital through high level education. The evolutionary trend of these functions, in which the university's research importance to promote the learning ability of graduates has been enhanced, is discussed within the context of the knowledge-based societies. The analysis is presented in terms of the impact that public policy, and especially public finding, may have in fostering or hindering the positive contribution of universities for economic prosperity. The fundamental criterion, we argue, is the preservation of the institutional integrity of the university. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Texas, IC2 Inst, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Inst Super Tecn, Studies & Planning Off, Lisbon, Portugal. RP Conceicao, P, Univ Texas, IC2 Inst, 2815 San Gabriel, Austin, TX 78712 USA. CR *OECD, 1987, U SUCR *WORLD BANK, 1995, WORLD DEV REP WORK I ALIC JA, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V55, P1 ARROW K, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V28, P155 ARTHUR WB, 1994, INCREASING RETURNS P BROOKS H, 1993, EMPOWERING TECHNOLOG CARACA J, IN PRESS HIGHER ED P COLE JR, 1994, RES U TIME DISCONTEN CONCEICAO P, 1997, J KNOWLEDGE MANAGEME, V1, P129 DAVIS S, 1994, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P165 EICHER JC, 1993, INT J ED RES, V19, P445 GROSSMAN GM, 1991, INNOVATION GROWTH GL KLINE SJ, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG LUCAS C, 1998, CRISIS ACAD RETHINKI LUCAS RE, 1988, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MANKIW NG, 1995, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC NELSON RR, 1996, TECHNOLOGY R D EC PASINETTI LL, 1981, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC READINGS B, 1996, U RUINS ROMER P, 1993, J MONETARY ECON, V32, P543 ROMER P, 1993, P WORLD BANK ANN C D ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, S71 ROMER PM, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P202 ROSENBERG N, 1996, ENGINES INNOVATIONS ROSOVSKY H, 1990, U OWNERS MANUAL SALOMON JJ, 1995, SCI PUBL POLICY, V22, P9 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 SOLOW RM, 1997, LESSONS EC GROWTH STEPHAN PE, 1996, J ECON LIT, V34, P1199 STEVENS C, 1996, OECD OBSERVER JUN, P6 WEISS C, 1991, KNOWLEDGE, V13, P102 WYCKOFF A, 1996, OECD OBSERVER JUN, P11 NR 34 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 203 EP 214 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500002 ER PT J AU Vedovello, C TI Firms' R & D activity and intensity and the university-enterprise partnerships SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The interaction between universities and industry in areas concerned with science and technology is part of the broader national infrastructure involving other higher education institutions, public and private research organizations, and companies that are engaged in the generation, transfer, and use of knowledge, information, and technology. This interaction has become more formal, frequent, and planned since the 1970s, and has aroused a growing interest in governments and policy makers, from both developed and developing countries, who still regard it as an under-utilized scientific technological resource. However, it is important to point out that universities and firms are different social entities, presenting different nature and objectives, that, inevitably, affect and limit their interaction. This article aims to shed some light on one of these dissimilarities-that related to the firms' R&D activity and intensity, that may influence their linkages with the academic world. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Inst Super Tecn, Dept Engn Mech, P-1096 Lisbon, Portugal. RP Vedovello, C, Inst Super Tecn, Dept Engn Mech, Av Rovisco Pais, P-1096 Lisbon, Portugal. CR *OECD, 1984, IND U NEW FORMS COOP *OECD, 1990, U ENT REL OECD MEMB *OECD, 1993, BAS SCI TECHN STAT ARORA A, 1990, J IND ECON, V38, P361 CORSTEN H, 1987, TECHNOVATION, V6, P295 CORSTEN H, 1987, TECHNOVATION, V6, P57 CURRAN A, 1993, IND HIGHER ED, V7, P205 DEIACO E, 1992, SCI TECHNOLOGY IND S, V11, P35 FAULKNER W, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P673 FAULKNER W, 1995, KNOWLEDGE FRONTIER P FELLER I, 1989, GROWTH POLICY AGE HI FREEMAN C, 1994, HDB IND INNOVATION GERING T, 1993, IND HIGHER ED, V7, P202 MANSFIELD E, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P1 MATTHIAS P, 1986, REPORT WORKING PARTY NELSON RR, 1987, LECT EC THEORY I, P8 PARKER LE, 1992, PHREE9264 WORLD BANK PAVITT K, 1993, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA ROTHWELL R, 1991, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER SENKER J, 1985, TECHNOVATION, V3, P243 VEDOVELLO C, 1995, THESIS U SUSSEX BRIG WEBSTER A, 1991, 4 SPSG NR 22 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 215 EP 226 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500003 ER PT J AU Vos, JP Keizer, JA Halman, JIM TI Diagnosing constraints in knowledge of SMEs SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) have problems with both formulating and acquiring new knowledge and skills. A method is proposed to identify the knowledge and skills an SME requires to exploit its market opportunities. The method provides a quick but effective strategic analysis to diagnose gaps that are essential for a company in its attempt to maintain or improve its competitiveness, Within this method, gaps in knowledge and skills relate to a company's market approach, product designs, production technology, and management methods. For the identified gaps, necessary actions are planned. This enables a company to acquire new knowledge and skills, and to bring its market approach, product designs, production technology, and management methods in line with both the company's own ambitions and market demands. In applying the method, it turned out that the companies involved were made conscious of the emerging strategic pattern regarding their attempts to achieve competitive advantage. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Eindhoven Univ Technol, Grad Sch Ind Engn & Management Sci, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. RP Vos, JP, Eindhoven Univ Technol, Grad Sch Ind Engn & Management Sci, POB 513, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. CR *B A GROUP, 1995, INN SMALL MED SIZ EN *BUR BUNT, 1995, WAY SMALL MED SIZ EN *EUR COMM DIR GEN, 1995, INN PROGR *MIN EC AFF, 1996, DUTCH SME SECT INT C HALMAN JIM, 1994, INT J PROJECT MANAGE, V2, P75 KOTLER P, 1988, MARKETING MANAGEMENT LEONARDBARTON D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG NONAKA I, 1995, KNOWLEDGE CREATING C PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P79 PRAHALAD CK, 1993, RES TECHNOLOGY M NOV SIMON M, 1989, CLASSIFICATION STRAT TIDD J, 1997, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V1, P1 TIDD J, 1997, MANAGING INNOVATION VANGUNSTEREN LA, 1987, LONG RANGE PLANN APR, P51 NR 15 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 227 EP 239 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500004 ER PT J AU Campi, C La Bella, A TI Analysis of the interaction between regional R & D productivity and the investment strategies of multinational enterprises SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INTERNATIONALIZATION; NETWORKS AB The aim of this article is to analyze the interaction between regional R&D productivity and the investment strategies of multinational enterprises. The discussion is based on the hypothesis that R&D investments cause a reduction in the production costs and an increase in firms' market share; furthermore, R&D costs may be affected by national industrial policies. Supposing the existence of asymmetries in local research productivity, necessary and sufficient conditions for a geographical diversification of resources have been found. Suggestions with respect to the optimal allocation of R&D investment are finally derived. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Roma Tor Vergata, Dept Comp Sci Syst & Ind Engn, I-00133 Rome, Italy. RP La Bella, A, Univ Roma Tor Vergata, Dept Comp Sci Syst & Ind Engn, Via Tor Vergata, I-00133 Rome, Italy. CR DOX YL, 1986, COMPETITION GLOBAL I DOZ YL, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN DUNNING JH, 1988, MULTINATIONALS TECHN DUNNING JH, 1992, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN GRANSTRAND O, 1992, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN GRANSTRAND O, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P413 HOWELLS J, 1990, REG STUD, V24, P495 LEVITT T, 1983, HARVARD BUS REV, V61, P92 MANSFIELD E, 1983, RES MANAGEMENT MAR, P11 MENZLERHOKKANEN I, 1995, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V10, P293 MILLER R, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P27 PEARCE RD, 1989, INT RES DEV MULTINAT PEARCE RD, 1992, GLOBALIZING RES DEV PERRINO AC, 1989, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V32, P12 PORTER ME, 1986, COMPETITION GLOBAL I PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI SPENCER BJ, 1983, REV ECON STUD, V50, P707 NR 17 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 241 EP 249 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500005 ER PT J AU Evangelista, R Sirilli, G TI Innovation in the service sector - Results from the Italian statistical survey SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This acticle provides fresh empirical evidence on the relevance and nature of innovation activities in the service sector. The evidence can be summarized as follows: Technological innovation is quite a diffused phenomenon in market services: more than one-third of surveyed firms have introduced technological innovations during the period 1993-95. The amount of financial resources devoted to innovation varies widely across service sectors. Financial, computing and software, engineering, and telecommunication services are the most innovative service sectors. Most service firms can distinguish between innovations in services and in processes. Process innovation emerges as the most diffused typology. Service firms rely on a wide range of innovation sources. The acquisition and development of software and investment in machinery are the most cited. Investment, R&D, and software are the major components of firms' innovation expenditure. Major obstacles for introducing technological innovation are of an economic nature, that is, cost and risk too high. The two most important objectives of firms' innovation strategies consist of improving service quality and reducing cost. Technological information is drawn mainly from in-house production departments as well as from outside suppliers of equipment, materials, and components. Public and private research institutions as well as patents and licenses play a very marginal role. Finally, in the near future the importance of technology for firms' performance is expected to increase in service industries. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 CNR, ISRDS, Inst Studies Sci Res & Documentat, I-00185 Rome, Italy. Univ Rome, LUISS, Rome, Italy. RP Evangelista, R, CNR, ISRDS, Inst Studies Sci Res & Documentat, Via C De Lollis 12, I-00185 Rome, Italy. CR *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1995, 81180 ABS *EUROSTAT, 1995, REP EUR PIL PROJ INV *ISTAT, 1995, IND SULL INN TECN AN *OCED, 1996, EMPL GROWTH KNOWL BA *OECD EUROSTAT, 1997, PROP GUID COLL INT T *OECD, 1989, OECDGD9226 *OECD, 1992, TECHN EC KEY REL *OECD, 1995, STI REV, V16 *OECD, 1996, INN PAT TECHN STRAT *OECD, 1996, SCI TECHN IND OUTL ARCHIBUGI D, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P299 BROUWER E, 1995, STI REV, V16 EVANGELISTA R, 1995, RES EVALUAT, V5, P207 EVANGELISTA R, 1996, EUR DG 13 INT C INN EVANGELISTA R, 1996, INNOVATION PATENTS T EVANGELISTA R, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P521 GAULT FD, 1995, VOORB GROUP M VOORB KLINE SJ, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG LUNDVALL, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MILES I, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P653 MILES I, 1995, SERVICES INNOVATION MILES I, 1996, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH KN SIRILLI G, 1997, EC STRUCTURAL TECHNO NR 23 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 251 EP 269 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500006 ER PT J AU D'Costa, AP TI Coping with technology divergence policies and strategies for India's industrial development SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Recent studies on innovation have demonstrated the relationship between technology and growth. However, as most of them are centered on the experience of the highly industrialized nations, a different approach to technology policy must be taken. As late industrializers, developing countries lag in adopting foreign technologies. Institutional factors and economic policy also influence the diffusion process. With decentralized decision making, the coexistence of diverse technologies in a given industrial branch is inevitable. Consequently, social costs tend to be high because of duplication of efforts, reduced learning opportunities, and adoption of inefficient technologies. This article examines the coexistence of diverse technologies leading to technology fragmentation in India's steel industry. Recent innovative behavior in the Japanese and Korean steel industry indicates that the effects of fragmentation can be contained through a policy of "system integration." This is an institutional process by which industry-specific applications of scientific knowledge are fused with basic research itself. This demands a forward-looking policy that rejuvenates older industries, such as steel, in socially acceptable ways and organically creates new knowledge for national development and social welfare. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Washington, Tacoma, WA 98402 USA. RP D'Costa, AP, Univ Washington, 1900 Commerce St, Tacoma, WA 98402 USA. CR *NIPP STEEL CORP, 1996, BAS FACTS NIPP STEEL *POSCO, 1996, 1996 FACT BOOK *SAIL, 1994, STAT IR STEEL IND IN AMSDEN AH, 1989, ASIAS NEXT GIANT S K BOWONDER B, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P249 CHESNAIS F, 1991, TECHNOLOGY NATL COMP COOPER C, 1993, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIO DASGUPTA P, 1987, EC POLICY TECHNOLOGI DCOSTA AP, IN PRESS GLOBAL REST DCOSTA AP, 1994, J DEV STUD, V31, P44 DCOSTA AP, 1996, REPUBLIC KOREA MONTH, V18, P39 DMELLO B, 1986, THESIS INDIAN I MANA ENOS JL, 1991, CREATION TECHNOLOGIC ERGAS H, 1987, EC POLICY TECHNOLOGI FRANSMAN M, 1985, J DEV STUD, V21, P572 GUERRA F, 1989, METALURGIA ING, V2, P39 IMAI K, 1992, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA LALL S, 1992, WORLD DEV, V20, P165 MOWERY DC, 1991, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E NELSON RR, 1992, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA OBA H, 1995, REITAKU INT J EC STU, V3, P57 OHASHI N, 1992, 10 COL U CTR JAP EC RAMANATHAN K, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P230 ROSENBERG N, 1994, EXPLORING BLACK BOX SENGUPTA R, 1995, SECTOR FOCUS SERIES, V4 SHARIF MN, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P217 VESTAL JE, 1993, PLANNING CHANGE IND NR 27 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 271 EP 283 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500007 ER PT J AU Koh, AT TI Organizational learning in successful east Asian firms: Principles, practices, and prospects SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Guided by Marquardt's system-linked organizational learning model, this article investigates the nature of and limits to latecomer-catchup learning engaged in by East Asian firms within the electronics industry over the past three decades. This is basically an adaptive, re-active, single-loop form of learning that emphasizes speed and enlargement of market share at the expense of technological depth and breadth. Challenges for the 21st century revolve around the need to make a transition from reverse engineering to breakthrough engineering; from an efficiency-centered to a creativity-propelled mode of competitive stance; and from knowledge exploitation to knowledge exploration in new critical areas such as design, software engineering, new product/process development, marketing, R&D, management of strategic alliances with international partners, and the development of a vibrant local components and capital goods network. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Econ, Singapore, Singapore. RP Koh, AT, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Econ, Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore, Singapore. CR *WORLD BANK, 1993, E AS MIR AMSDEN A, 1989, ASIAS NEXT GIANT S K APPELBAUM RP, 1992, STATES DEV ASIA PACI ARGYRIS C, 1978, ORG LEARNING THEORY BADARACCO J, 1996, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT BARKER JA, 1997, ORG FUTURE CHOWDHURY A, 1993, NEWLY I EC E AS DODGSON M, 1993, ORGAN STUD, V14, P375 ERNST D, 1997, AS PAC J MAN C AS MU GALBRAITH JR, 1997, ORG FUTURE HAMMOND V, 1994, HDB TRAINING DEV HESSELBEIN F, 1997, ORG FUTURE HOBDAY M, 1995, INNOVATION E ASIA CH JONES GR, 1997, ORG FUTURE KIM LS, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P437 MAIRA A, 1997, ACCELERATING ORG MARQUARDT M, 1996, BUILDING LEARNING OR MYERS PS, 1996, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT NONAKA I, 1991, HARVARD BUS REV, V69, P96 NONAKA I, 1995, KNOWLEDGE CREATING C OWEN H, 1991, RIDING TIGER BUSINES PRUSAK L, 1996, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT REDDING J, 1994, STRATEGIC READINESS REVAN R, 1980, ACTION LEARNING NEW SENGE P, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE TAMPOE M, 1996, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT WADE R, 1990, GOVERNING MARKET EC ZUBOFF S, 1988, IN AGE SMART MACHINE NR 28 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 285 EP 295 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500008 ER PT J AU Sung, TK Gibson, DV TI Critical success factors for business reengineering and corporate performance: The case of Korean corporations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article briefly reviews the literature on business reengineering (BR), analyzes critical success factors (CSFs) for BR, develops a BR-CSFs model, empirically tests the model on Korean firms, and investigates the impact of BR on corporate performance in Korea. Many Korean firms are attempting to transform from Japanese- to American-style business management. As part of this process, BR has gained substantial critical mass as the first widely accepted American-born management methodology accepted in Korea. While Western-based BR methodologies provide general procedures and techniques the CSFs listed in this research focus on the key factors that Korean firms generally confront. In the present research, 20 CSFs, taken from a literature review were divided into four categories: strategic, organizational, methodological, and technological/educational. A survey was developed to assess the firm-specific importance and development of each of these CSFs. Survey responses from 162 Korean corporations indicate a positive association between the designated CSFs and corporate performance. Korean BR team leaders and CEOs/COOS rate "strategic" and "methodological" CSFs as most important while "organizational" and "technological/educational" CSFs are considered less important, a rank ordering challenged by the authors. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Texas, IC2 Inst, Austin, TX 78746 USA. Kyonggi Univ, Dept MIS, Suwon, South Korea. RP Gibson, DV, Univ Texas, IC2 Inst, Austin, TX 78746 USA. CR 1993, DATAQUEST PROFESSION AGYRIS C, 1978, ORG LEARNING THEORY BELMONTE RW, 1993, BUSINESS WEEK BROWN FG, 1983, PRINCIPLES ED PSYCHO DAVENPORT TH, 1990, SLOAN MANAGEMENT SUM, P7 DAVENPORT TH, 1993, PROCESS INNOVATION R DELONE WH, 1992, INFORMATION SYSTEMS, V3, P60 HALL G, 1993, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P199 HAMMER M, 1990, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P104 HAMMER M, 1993, HARPER BUSINESS KIM HS, 1993, BPR SUCCESS STATEGY KIM SH, 1994, KOREA EC DAILY NEWSP KIM YH, 1994, CUSTOMER SATISFACTIO LEE SC, 1993, BUSINESS REENGINEEER, V1, P2 MARKUS L, 1994, UNPUB PAPER MORRIS D, 1993, REENGINEERING YOUR B NUNALLY J, 1978, PSYCHMETRIC THEORY OMAHE K, 1982, MIND STRATEGIST PARK JH, 1992, THESIS KIST SUNG TK, 1993, P 1993 ANN MIS C SEO, P3 SUNG TK, 1996, REPORTS BR SUCCESS F NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1998 VL 58 IS 3 BP 297 EP 311 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZZ571 UT ISI:000074743500009 ER PT J AU van den Ende, J Mulder, K Knot, M Moors, E Vergragt, P TI Traditional and modern technology assessment: Toward a toolkit SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DYNAMICS; NETWORKS AB Technology assessment (TA) as a discipline includes rather different approaches and methods. Traditionally, the discipline has focused on forecasting, impact assessment, and policy studies. Later more process-oriented approaches, such as constructive technology assessment (CTA), were developed that were aimed explicitly at influencing the shape of new technologies. Although the new approaches have enriched the field of technology assessment, the scope and variety of the field has increased, particularly concerning its methods. These range from trend extrapolation and Delphi's to interventions in innovation networks and consensus conferences. This article aims to classify the approaches and methods of TA into a common framework. Distinctions are made between methods of analysis and intervention methods, and between methods functioning as project layout and mere tools. Some criteria are formulated for the choice of methods. In this way, the article attempts to increase the coherence of the field of TA, and to make it more transparent to nonpractitioners such as scientists and engineers, government employees, and members of civil movements. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Rotterdam Sch Management F2 67, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. RP van den Ende, J, Rotterdam Sch Management F2 67, POB 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. CR *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, POL AN OTA STAFF ASS AGERSNAP T, 1992, P ECTA, V3, P45 AMARA R, 1983, BUSINESS PLANNING UN ANDERSEN I, 1992, P ECTA 3, V2, P446 ANDERSEN I, 1992, P ECTA, V3, P446 BECK PW, 1983, LECT 3 INT S FOR PHI BECK PW, 1983, LECT 6 INT S FOR PHI BOSKMA P, 1986, METHODS EXPERIENCES CALLON M, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P215 CETRON MJ, 1972, METHODOLOGY TECHNOLO CHARAN R, 1991, HARVARD BUS REV, V69, P104 COATES JF, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V49, P321 COATES JJ, 1980, GUIDEBOOK TECHNOLOGY CRUL MRM, 1994, MILIEUGERICHTE PRODU DENHOND F, 1992, MILIEUVRIENDELIJKER DEWHURST H, 1970, RES MANAGEMENT, V13 ENGEL PGH, 1995, THESIS WAGENINGEN FONK G, 1994, CONSTRUCTIEVE ROL CO FRENCH MJ, 1991, US TIRE IND HIST GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC GORDON T, 1968, FUTURES, V1, P100 GRAY L, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P299 HAKANSSON H, 1987, IND TECHNOLOGICAL DE HAKANSSON H, 1989, CORPORATE TECHNOLOGI HELMER O, 1964, REPORT LONG RANGE FO JUNGK R, 1981, ZUKUNFTSWERKSTATTEN KANE J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P129 KUNKLE GC, 1995, TECHNOL SOC, V17, P175 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MACNULTY CAR, 1997, FUTURES, V9, P128 MULDER KF, 1992, CHOOSING CORPORATE F PORTER AL, 1980, GUIDEBOOK TECHNOLOGY PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME RIP A, 1989, INT C INS TECHN TUR RIP A, 1995, APPROACH CONSTRUCTIV ROBINSON J, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P325 SCHNAARS SP, 1989, MEGAMISAKES FORECAST SCHOT J, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P1060 SCHOT JW, 1992, SCI TECHNOL, V17, P36 SCLOVE D, 1994, UNPUB CITIZEN BASED SHRUM W, 1985, ORG TECHNOLOGY NETWO SMITS R, 1991, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN VANDENDALE W, 1994, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN VANDERMEER FB, 1986, IMPACT ASSESSMENT TO VANDOORN J, 1978, FORECASTING METHODEN VERGRAGT PJ, 1993, PROJECT APPRAISAL, V8, P134 VERGRAGT PJ, 1995, GREEN IND C TOR NOV VERGRAGT PJ, 1995, KIVI VERHEUL H, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P315 WACK P, 1995, HARVARD BUS REV, V73, P89 NR 50 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 5 EP 21 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800002 ER PT J AU Berloznik, R Van Langenhove, L TI Integration of technology assessment in R&D management practices SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper addresses the question of how technology assessment (TA) can be best integrated in the managment of R&D both at the laboratory and the policy level. The main objective is to present a conceptual framework to situate and evaluate the actual and possible TA infrastructure in Europe. The paper consists of three distinct sections. In section one, the concept and practice of TA are briefly introduced with an emphasis on their actual institutionalizations in Europe. Section two presents a conceptual framework of R&D managment at four levels: the R&D environment, the R&D institution, the R&D process, and the R&D project. The relationship between TA and R&D management is explored for each of the four levels. Finally, in section three the concept of and motives for TA integrated within the laboratory work of scientists and engineers are presented. The basic argument of this paper is that by promoting the integration of TA in R&D managment practices, a significant contribution can be made to (1) increasing the cost-efficiency of research and (2) increase the social responsiblity of scientists. The authors therefore draw up a conceptual framework for the development of R&D-integrated TA practices called Integrated Technology Assessment (ITA). (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Vlaamse Instelling Technol Onderzoek, Technol Assessment Unit, B-2400 Mol, Belgium. Belgian Sci Policy Off, Brussels, Belgium. RP Berloznik, R, Vlaamse Instelling Technol Onderzoek, Technol Assessment Unit, Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol, Belgium. CR BERLOZNIK R, 1994, EUROPEAN TECHNOL OCT, P25 COATES V, 1975, READINGS TECHNOLOGY CRONBERG T, 1994, P 1 INT C INT ASS TE FERRATA R, 1993, MANAGEMENT R D ACTIV FURSTENWERTH H, 1992, P 3 EUR C TECHN ASS, P20 HUISINGH J, 1991, 2 EUR C TA MIL IT LATOUR B, 1987, SCI ACTION PETRELLA R, 1992, TECHNOLOGIES INFORMA, V4, P425 SCHOT J, 1991, WORKSH CTA POSS CONS SMITS R, 1990, 2 EUR C TA MIL IT SMITS R, 1993, STRONG EFFECTIVE EUR TIMMERHUIS V, 1991, HUMAN RESOURCES MANA VANLANGENHOVE L, 1996, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V11, P703 NR 13 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 23 EP 33 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800003 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Technology assessment as guidance to governmental management of new technologies in developing countries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The concept of technology assessment is applied to the consequences for the environment, health, and safety from the introduction of new technologies into developing countries. The vehicle is a primer and workbook directed at senior officials in and out of government in those countries. Its purpose is not to provide answers to questions but rather to promote a more general, future-oriented awareness of the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies. That introduction may be by government, by multinational corporations, or by local businesses. The workbook is designed to be done in a variety of formats by a single individual working for a relevantly short time, all the way up to a task force working for weeks. Suggestions are made for how to get answers to the uncertainties that are uncovered and for vetting the results of the environmental technology assessment. The primer and workbook produced for the United Nations' Environmental Program is now under evaluation in actual situations. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Coates & Jarratt Inc, Washington, DC USA. RP Coates, JF, 3738 Kanawha St NW, Washington, DC 20015 USA. CR COATES JF, 1995, ANTICIPATING ENV EFF NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 35 EP 46 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800004 ER PT J AU Keller, P Ledergerber, U TI Bimodal system dynamic - A technology assessment and forecasting approach SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Technology assessment and science forecasting are based on the long-term forecasting of important processes within complex systems. The Bimodal System Model was developed for their modeling. The system dynamics and the system itself are based on the combined action of two forces: the evolutive intrinsic dynamics and the decisionistic formation. Evolutively intrinsic dynamic forces emerge from two basic principles: assimilation and comprehension (the basis of any individual endeavor) and exchange and interchange (the heart of any communication and interaction between individual people, groups, associations). These forces are solely induced by individual optimization of benefits related to material goods and ideas. From the point of view of their emergence they are heterogeneous and chaotic and are neither globally nor centrally planned. Their effect in a system occurs a million-fold, however uncoordinated. Intrinsic forces are insensitive to other effects (e.g., decisionistic or formative) due to their million-fold, heterogenous origin. Decisionistic formative forces deploy their effect in a system when a community is conscious of being a subject and as such is capable of expressing and translating its coordinated will (decision). The decisionistically formative forces can produce a consistent effect when they are aligned to the evolutive intrinsic forces and utilize their dynamics in a required manner. Therefore, process-oriented priorities must be construed in the course of consensus formation, determination of aims and headroom evaluation, which would allow a concerted and sustained application of the available forces. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 ETH Honggerberg, IVT, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Keller, P, ETH Honggerberg, IVT, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland. NR 0 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 47 EP 52 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800005 ER PT J AU Pauli, G TI Technology forecasting and assessment: The case of zero emissions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The world is facing pressing problems. The Zero Emissions Research Initiative (ZERI) has succeeded in identifying clusters of technologies which respond to specific needs such as the provision of water and food, the administration of health care, construction of housing, and the creation of jobs. The person responsible for the program is not a scientist, but an executive with broad experience in industrial innovations. A network of over 3000 scientists has contributed to the implementation of the program through a system of "electronic zooming" based on the Internet, which has resulted in less than three years in the translation of scientific ideas into commercial applications. ZERI has developed a theoretical framework, a common methodology, and a set of case studies. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UN Univ, Zero Emiss Res Initiat, Tokyo, Japan. UNDP, ZERI Fdn, Geneva, Switzerland. RP Pauli, G, 2-18-9 Komachi, Kamakura, Kanagawa 248, Japan. NR 0 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 53 EP 62 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800006 ER PT J AU Renn, O Goble, R Kastenholz, H TI How to apply the concept of sustainability to a region SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DECISION-MAKING AB The term "sustainable development" is a prophetic combination of two words which unites both aspects-economic progress and environmental quality-in one vision. The attractiveness of such a term has its price, however. It can become an empty phrase if it is not clearly defined and conceptualized. What is needed is a description of the concept that is exact as possible, and details on how to operationalize it. Such a definition should allow for flexibility, but not arbitrariness, in implementing the concept. The project of the Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wurttemberg with the title "Qualitative Growth as Prerequisite for Sustainable Development in Baden-Wurttemberg" is an attempt to accomplish this. The aim of the project is to develop a concept of sustainable development on a regional scale by developing general guidelines and conversion strategies for the various players involved. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Ctr Technol Assessment, D-70565 Stuttgart, Germany. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland. Univ Stuttgart, D-7000 Stuttgart, Germany. Ctr Technol Assessment, Baden Wurttemberg, Germany. Clark Univ, Ctr Technol Environm & Dev, Worcester, MA USA. RP Renn, O, Ctr Technol Assessment, Industriestr 5, D-70565 Stuttgart, Germany. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 63 EP 81 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800007 ER PT J AU Cadenas, A Cabezudo, S TI Biofuels as sustainable technologies: Perspectives for less developed countries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The future outlook of biofuels is beset by uncertainty. Key factors for the adoption of biofuels as alternative technologies are policy decisions by governments in terms of regulations, such as government procurement schemes and fuel specifications, along with financial and economic instruments, such as subsidies and preferential taxation. In this framework, the present analysis is a prospective as to the future development of a biofuel program in the European Union and the hypothetical role of developing countries as suppliers in this new market. The focus of this article is, exclusively, on liquid fuels. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Autonoma Madrid, Dept Dev & Struct Econ, Fac Econ, Madrid 28049, Spain. IADE, Fac Econ, Madrid, Spain. RP Cadenas, A, Univ Autonoma Madrid, Dept Dev & Struct Econ, Fac Econ, Ctra Colmenar Viejo Km 15, Madrid 28049, Spain. CR 1991, C HELD HAG EUR EN CH 1992, ALCOHOL WEEK, V13, P1 1992, OIL GAS J, P22 *COM COM EUR, 1991, COM91258 EUR COMM CO *COMM EUR COMM, 1987, COST BEN AN PROD US *COMM EUR COMM, 1992, COM902 EUR COMM COMM *COMM EUR COMM, 1992, COM92180 EUR COMM CO *COMM EUR COMMM, 1992, COM92226 EUR COMM CO *EUR COMM, UR ROUND WORLD AG WO *EUR COMM, 1994, EUR REN EN STUD PROS *EUR COMM, 1994, PRACT INF PROGR ENV *EUR COMM, 1994, REGL 3290 94 REL AD *EUR COMMM, 1994, INF PACK AGR FISH IN *EUR COMMM, 1994, INF PACK NONN EN JOU *EUR COMMM, 1995, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG, V3 *FYI, 1994, UR ROUND TRAD ACC *GATT, 1994, 84 GATT *IDAE, 1992, MAN EN REN BIOM *MIN AGR PESC AL, 1995, PAPELES EC ESPANOLA, V60, P5 *OCDE, 1984, BIOM EN EC POL ISS *OCDE, 1995, BIOF *OFF SCI TECHN INF, 1989, BIOM FUELS DEV COUNT ALTISENT MR, 1994, BIOFUELS APPL BIOL D CALDERON E, 1994, BIOFUELS APPL BIOL D CAMPS M, 1994, BIOFUELS APPL BIOL D CARMONY, 1991, EUR EN OBJ 1992 PERS GOWEN M, 1989, ENERGY POLICY OCT, P455 HALL DO, 1991, REGENERABLE ENERGY KANE S, 1989, AGRIBUSINESS, V5, P505 KNOTT D, 1995, OIL GAS J 0220, P25 LEWIS C, 1983, BIOLOGY, P153 OKKEN PA, 1991, ENERGY POLICY MAY, P400 RENDLEMAN CM, 1993, AGRIBUSINESS, V9, P217 ROSILLOCALLE F, 1987, BIOMASS, V12, P97 SOURIE JC, 1986, BIOMASS RECENT EC ST SPELMAN C, 1994, NONFOOD USES AGR RAW URRUTIA JC, 1993, GATT POST RONDA URUG WARREN A, 1994, UNEP IND ENV, V17 WRIGHT D, 1992, BIOMASS NEW FUTURE NR 39 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 83 EP 103 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800008 ER PT J AU Mulder, KF TI Sustainable consumption and production of plastics? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article deals with the environmental effects of the production and consumption of plastics. The original study was carried out at the request of the National Environmental Conference (Landelijk Milien Overleg) of the Netherlands as part of a project on sustainable chemical production. This project was sponsored by The Netherlands Department of the Environment. In the project, various studies were commissioned on the environmental performance of specific branches of chemical production. The purpose of these studies was to provide a basis for a comprehensive vision on the future of the production of chemicals, and for discussions with the chemical industry. The article will first deal with the history of plastics and then analyze current plastic production, plastic industry, and plastic consumption. The environmental burden caused by plastics is analyzed, as are the various measures taken to reduce this burden. Their effects are analyzed. This article also examines the political debates and conflicts of interest that are involved. In its conclusions, the article will discusses the possible form of a sustainable plastics industry. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol & Soc, NL-2628 RZ Delft, Netherlands. RP Mulder, KF, Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol & Soc, De Vries Van Heystplantsoen 2, NL-2628 RZ Delft, Netherlands. CR 1996, CHEM IND MAGAZI 0304 *MIN AGR, 1996, FOOD SURV INF SHEET *MIN SOC ZAK, 1976, RAPP OV EXPL DSM BEE *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, BIOP MAK MAT NAT WAY ARTHUR WB, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P590 BERDOWSKI JJM, 1994, EMISSIES NEDERLAND 1 BERDOWSKI JJM, 1995, EMISSIES NEDERLAND B BIERSMA R, 1994, NRC HANDELSBLAD 1224, P1 BIESHEUVEL S, 1996, INGENIEUR, V107, P14 BOUHAS D, 1994, CHEM WEEKBL, V90, P6 CRAMER J, 1992, GEVOLGEN INTEGRAAL K DENHOND F, 1992, MILIEUVRIENDELIJKER DERIJK M, 1988, INTERMEDIAIR, V24, P51 EILBRACHT P, 1994, INGENIEUR, V105, P14 FISCHER DW, 1981, LESSONS MAJOR ACCIDE FRIEDEL R, 1983, PIONEER PLASTIC MAKI GIELEN DJ, 1993, INVLOED KUNSTSTOFREC GIELEN DJ, 1996, PETROCHEMICAL IND IT GROENEWEGEN RJJ, 1993, 11 MIN VROM HOWARD FA, 1947, BUNA RUBBER BIRTH IN JOLLIET O, 1994, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V49, P253 KAUFMAN M, 1963, 1 CENTURY PLASTICS C KIRSCHBAUM R, 1989, ADV GEL SPINNING TEC, P15 KLARE H, 1985, GESCHICHTE CHEMIEFAS KLINGENBERG A, 1988, BRANDVERTRAGERS KOCH ER, 1978, SEVESO IST UBERALL T LUZIER WD, 1992, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V89, P839 MARSHALL VC, 1987, MAJOR CHEM HAZARDS MEIKLE JL, 1995, AM PLASTIC CULTURAL MIERAS M, 1995, INTERMEDIAIR, V31, P33 MULDER K, 1991, HIGH PERFORMANCE PLA, V9, P1 MULDER KF, 1991, INTERACTION TECHNOLO, V3, P239 MULDER KF, 1994, INGENIEUR, V105, P20 OKKERSE C, 1996, DUURZAAMHEID CHEM PEEREBOOM JWC, 1991, GEVAARLIJKE MILIEUGE, V2, P152 PEEREBOOM JWC, 1991, GEVAARLIJKE MILIEUGE, V2, P98 PERRIN MW, 1953, RESEARCH, P111 PISTOR G, 1958, HJ GRIESHEIM 1856 19 RIP A, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY SANDERSON E, 1994, CHEM WEEKBL, V90, P6 SCHOLTENS B, 1992, VOLKSKRANT 1003, P17 SCHOLTENS B, 1996, VOLKSKRANT 1026, P13 SCHOT JW, 1992, SCI TECHNOL, V17, P36 SCHOUTEN AE, 1991, PLASTICS THAYER AM, 1995, CHEM ENG NEWS, V73, P15 TUTTLE WM, 1981, TECHNOL CULT, V22, P35 VANDENBROEK M, 1995, VOLKSKRANT 0107, P17 VANKASTEREN J, 1995, NRC HANDELSBLAD, P1 VANLENTE H, 1990, SCI YUGOSLAVICA, V15, P127 VELDHOEN L, 1995, TECHNISCHE MISLUKKIN, P90 WINFIELD AG, 1992, PLASTICS ENG MAY, P32 NR 51 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 105 EP 124 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800009 ER PT J AU Shin, T TI Using Delphi for a long-range technology forecasting, and assessing directions of future R&D activities - The Korean exercise SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article summarizes and discusses major findings of the Korean Delphi. The Korean Delphi was first carried out on a large scale. The results of the Korean Delphi include the forecast time of realization and an evaluation of importance for about 1200 technological topics. The forecast time of realization was estimated and compared in both Korea and the world's leading countries. We also provide a comparison of the Delphi results among Korea, Japan, and Germany, with some topics in common in the areas of information, electronics, and communications technology. This study interprets the results of the Delphi and explores the future directions of R&D activities with relevance to the Korean Society. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Shin, T, POB 255, Seoul 130650, South Korea. CR *BMFT, 1993, DEUTSCH DELPH BER EN *NISTEP, 5 SCI TECHN FOR SURV, P19 *NISTEP, 1994, OUTL JAP GERM FUT TE *STEPI, 1995, LONG RANG PLAN SCI T BLACK AW, 1964, GUIDE PRACTICAL TECH BRIGHT J, 1978, PRACTICAL TECHNOLOGY CHAFFIN WW, 1980, TECHNOLOGICLA FORECA, V16 DAJANI JS, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V13 JANTSCH E, 1967, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MARTINO J, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MILLETT SM, 1991, MANAGERS GUIDE TECHN ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V39 SALANCIK JR, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P65 SHIN T, 1994, 1 SURVEY SCI TECHNOL WAISSBLUTH M, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P383 NR 15 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 125 EP 154 PG 30 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800010 ER PT J AU Chakravarti, AK Vasanta, B Krishnan, ASA Dubash, RK TI Modified Delphi methodology for technology forecasting - Case study of electronics and information technology in India SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A nationwide Delphi-based technology forecasting exercise was undertaken in India in electronics and information technology. First, scenario writings covering 10 subtechnological areas were done by a panel of experts based on certain guidelines provided by the Technology, Information, Forecasting & Assessment Council (TIFAC). These formed the basis of framing of more than 280 Delphi questions by a set of experts. Delphi inquiry required responses to be given in numerical as well as text form particularly to cover specific Indian scenario and needs. About 370 experts were asked to respond. The response rate was around 35%, which was considered statistically sufficient to go ahead with the analysis. A computer program analyzed the responses through the combination of interquartile range mean, median, and mode to find out the consensus among the respondents on a particular question. Text-based responses were analyzed to propose a roadmap for India. Technology forecasts, thus done on short, medium, and longterm, were then fine tuned in a one-day seminar of experts, planners, and administrators. These were then debated and short listed to arrive at a recommended plan of action for implementation. The modified Delphi methodology for technology forecasting proposed in this article is thus a combination of scenario writing, Delphi questionnaire, and response analysis using additional written inputs to develop a roadmap for India, fine tuning and short listing through a seminar for implementation. This methodology is considered unique for rapidly changing technology with all pervasive applications like electronics and information technology aiming at sustainable development. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Govt India, Dept Elect, Informat Technol Grp, New Delhi 110003, India. RP Chakravarti, AK, Govt India, Dept Elect, Informat Technol Grp, 6 CGO Complex, New Delhi 110003, India. NR 0 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 155 EP 165 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800011 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Business and privacy in the early 21st century SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The changing forces influencing the privacy concerns of the United States are discussed. Matters of declining privacy interest as well as emerging and newly important ones are presented, all from the point of view of implications for business in the early decades of the 21st century. Two central remedies are proposed that would eliminate the overwhelming number of corporate and business abuses of privacy. They are the monitorization of privacy and the shift in the legal ownership of most personal information. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Coates & Jarratt Inc, Washington, DC 20015 USA. RP Coates, JF, Coates & Jarratt Inc, 3738 Kanawha St, Washington, DC 20015 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1998 VL 58 IS 1-2 BP 167 EP 174 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA ZJ928 UT ISI:000073267800012 ER PT J AU Kurawarwala, AA Matsuo, H TI Product growth models for medium-term forecasting of short life cycle products SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DIFFUSION-MODELS AB Short product life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries. Traditional approaches to medium-term forecasting are not designed for the type of information available (or the lack thereof) in the short life cycle environment. A typical demand curve for these products consists of rapid growth, maturity, and decline phases coupled with seasonal variation. With reference to product demand curves of a personal computer (PC) manufacturer, we suggest the use of information on total life cycle sales and the peak sales timing to obtain initial monthly forecast in the absence of a sales history. Three growth models are presented in which such information can be utilized to estimate the parameters. We also outline procedures that use demand history of prior products to estimate the seasonal variation in demand. Using data on PC products, we empirically validate the models and compare their at and forecast performance with ARIMA models. We show that the accuracy of the forecast made multiple periods ahead using two of the three models investigated is comparable to that made one period ahead using ARIMA models. Empirical observations and issues relating to the implementation of the models at a PC manufacturer are also discussed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Univ Texas, Dept Management, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Univ Minnesota, Curtis L Carlson Sch Management, Operat & Management Sci Dept, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. RP Matsuo, H, Univ Texas, Dept Management, Austin, TX 78712 USA. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BASS FM, 1991, 491091 U TEX EASINGWOOD CJ, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P273 FOURT LA, 1960, J MARKETING, V25, P31 HENDRY I, 1972, LONG RANGE PLANN, V5, P40 KURAWARWALA AA, 1996, OPER RES, V44, P131 LAWRENCE KD, 1981, NEW PRODUCT FORECAST LEVENE H, 1960, CONTRIBUTIONS PROBAB MACAULAY FR, 1931, SMOOTHING TIME SERIE MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P331 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MCCLAIN JO, 1973, OPER RES, V21, P554 SHISKIN J, 1967, 15 US DEP COMM BUR C SRINIVASAN V, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P169 SRIVASTAVA RK, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P325 SULTAN F, 1990, J MARKETING RES, V27, P70 TENG JT, 1983, MANAGE SCI, V29, P1087 THOMAS RJ, 1985, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V2, P45 WHEELWRIGHT SC, 1985, FORCASTING METHODS M WIND Y, 1981, NEW PRODUCT FORECAST WINTERS PR, 1960, MANAGE SCI, V6, P324 NR 23 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 169 EP 196 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200001 ER PT J AU Trune, DR Goslin, LN TI University technology transfer programs: A profit/loss analysis SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB An analysis was made of the financial profitability/loss of technology transfer programs in U.S. universities, hospitals, and research centers for 1995. Data were extracted from the AUTM (Association of University Technology Managers) survey and other published information. Royalty payments were compared to estimates of technology transfer office costs, patent fees, legal expenses, and new research grants. Approximately half of the programs in these institutions appeared to operate at a profit, albeit some had profits of several million dollars. Many smaller university technology transfer programs have been in existence only 5-10 years and presumably have not transferred sufficient technology for a profitable royalty stream. When estimates were made of institution funds that are spent locally, the community benefit of technology transfer programs was $434 million. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 Oregon Hlth Sci Univ, Oregon Hearing Res Ctr, Dept Otolaryngol, Portland, OR 97201 USA. Portland State Univ, Portland, OR 97207 USA. RP Trune, DR, Oregon Hlth Sci Univ, Oregon Hearing Res Ctr, Dept Otolaryngol, NRC04,3181 SW Sam Jackson Pk Rd, Portland, OR 97201 USA. CR *ASS U TECHN MAN I, 1996, AUTM LIC SURV FISC Y *PET GUID INC, 1995, PET 4 YEAR COLL *PET GUID INC, 1995, PET GRAD PROGR BUS E GERRING AL, 1996, RES CTR DIRECTORY LAND M, 1996, TECHNOLOGY ACCE 1009, P13 MAJOR T, 1996, TECHNOLOGY ACCE 0509, P12 ODZA M, 1995, TECHNOLOGY ACCE 0108, P13 PRESSMAN L, 1995, J ASS U TECHNOLOGY M, V7, P49 STEVENS A, 1994, ASS U TECHN MAN ADV TORNATZKY LG, 1995, BENCHMARKING U IND T TRUNE DR, 1996, J ASS U TECHNOLOGY M, V8, P63 NR 11 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 197 EP 204 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200002 ER PT J AU Buchberger, B TI University research vitalization and social contribution SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Johannes Kepler Univ, Symbol Computat Res Inst, A-4040 Linz, Austria. TARA, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan. RP Buchberger, B, Johannes Kepler Univ, Symbol Computat Res Inst, A-4040 Linz, Austria. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 211 EP 215 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200004 ER PT J AU Scott, NR TI Strategy for activating university research SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Scott, NR, Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 217 EP 219 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200005 ER PT J AU Scott, NR TI Utilizing university research for social contribution SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14852 USA. RP Scott, NR, Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14852 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 221 EP 223 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200006 ER PT J AU Lopez, WH TI How universities can organize to support industrially relevant research effectively SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Asian Technol Informat Program, Albuquerque, NM 87106 USA. Univ New Mexico, New Mexico US Japan Ctr, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA. RP Lopez, WH, Asian Technol Informat Program, 1601 Randolph Rd SE-201 S, Albuquerque, NM 87106 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 225 EP 228 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200007 ER PT J AU Gill, D TI The Canadian Networks of Centres of Excellence (NCE) Program SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alberta, Ind Liaison Off, Edmonton, AB, Canada. RP Gill, D, Univ Alberta, Ind Liaison Off, Edmonton, AB, Canada. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 229 EP 231 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200008 ER PT J AU Mejia, LR TI A brief look at a market-driven approach to university technology transfer: One model for a rapidly changing global economy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stanford Univ, Off Technol Licensing, Palo Alto, CA 94304 USA. RP Mejia, LR, Stanford Univ, Off Technol Licensing, Suite 350,900 Welch Rd, Palo Alto, CA 94304 USA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 233 EP 235 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200009 ER PT J AU Saito, H TI Hy-labo = hybrid laboratories: Springboard for the science and technology basic plan SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tsukuba, Ctr Tsukuba Adv Res Alliance, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan. RP Saito, H, Univ Tsukuba, Ctr Tsukuba Adv Res Alliance, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 237 EP 248 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200010 ER PT J AU Saito, H TI Interdisciplinary research organization science technology engineering matching programs (STEMPs) SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tsukuba, Ctr Tsukuba Adv Res Alliance, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan. RP Saito, H, Univ Tsukuba, Ctr Tsukuba Adv Res Alliance, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 249 EP 255 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200011 ER PT J AU Phillips, F TI University-industry partnerships in management research SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Oregon Grad Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Management Sci & Technol, Portland, OR 97291 USA. RP Phillips, F, Oregon Grad Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Management Sci & Technol, POB 91000, Portland, OR 97291 USA. CR GIBSON D, 1991, U SPIN OFF CO LEARNER DB, 1993, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V27, P9 LOPEZ W, 1996, ASIAN FLAT PANEL DIS SMILOR RW, 1986, NEW BUSINESS INCUBAT NR 4 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 257 EP 260 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200012 ER PT J AU Hazlett, JA Carayannis, EG TI Business-university virtual teaming for strategic planning SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Sci Applicat Int Corp, Strateg Assessment Ctr, Mclean, VA 22102 USA. George Washington Univ, Sch Business & Publ Management, Washington, DC USA. RP Hazlett, JA, Sci Applicat Int Corp, Strateg Assessment Ctr, MS-Ti-13-4,1710 Goodridge Dr, Mclean, VA 22102 USA. CR BOYD JR, 1984, UNPUB ORGANIC DESIGN BRANDENBURGER AM, 1990, COOPETITION GRENIER R, 1995, GOING VIRTUAL SENGE PM, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE ART PRA SENGE PM, 1994, 5 DISCIPLINE FIELDBO NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1998 VL 57 IS 3 BP 261 EP 265 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YZ179 UT ISI:000072228200013 ER PT J AU Glenn, JC Gordon, TJ TI The Millennium Project - 1997 state of the future - Implications for actions today SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 AC UNU,MILLENNIUM PROJECT,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Glenn, JC, UN UNIV,AMER COUNCIL,MILLENNIUM PROJECT,4421 GARRISON ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. CR 1997, FRONTIERS FUTURES ST BELCAMP E, 1982, WINNING WAYS MATH PL EPSTEIN J, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S GAITENBY A, 1996, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 HENDERSON H, 1995, TAKING NATURE ACCOUN HENDERSON H, 1995, WORLDPAPER KIDDER R, 1995, GOOD PEOPLE MAKE TOU LEVY S, 1992, ARTIFICIAL LIFE QUES PETERSON I, 1996, SCI NEWS 1123 ROSSNEY R, 1996, WIRED JUN NR 11 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1997 VL 56 IS 3 BP 203 EP 296 PG 94 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YG845 UT ISI:A1997YG84500002 ER PT J AU Modis, T TI Genetic re-engineering of corporations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGIES AB The work presented here constitutes a chapter in a forthcoming book by the same author entitled Conquering Uncertainty (McGraw-Hill). The approach uses the Voltera-Lotka equations to describe the competitive dynamics in a market niche occupied by two competitors. All types of competition are considered. Examples from industry demonstrate the possibility to alter the competitive roles by acting on the parameters of the equations. A methodology is given on how to guide and optimize advertising and image-building strategies. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. CR COOPER RG, 1990, NEW PRODUCTS KEY FAC DRUCKER PF, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P67 FARRELL C, 1993, NEW SCI, V137, P35 FARRELL CJ, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P161 FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKER LESLIE PH, 1957, BIOMETRIKA, V45, P16 LOTKA AJ, 1925, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS PISTORIUS CWI, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V50, P133 SMITALOVA K, 1991, MATH TREATMENT DYNAM NR 10 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 56 IS 2 BP 107 EP 118 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XW969 UT ISI:A1997XW96900001 ER PT J AU Larsen, ER Haxholdt, C TI Mode-locking in a forced business cycle SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ARNOLD TONGUES; DYNAMICS; CHAOS AB Recently, interest in nonlinear dynamics in economics and other sciences has grown rapidly. Mode-locking is a typical phenomenon that can occur in systems where several oscillatory processes interact. For linear systems, the principle of superposition applies. However, as soon as nonlinear interactions become significant, this principle ceases to be valid, and two or more oscillatory modes will tend to adjust to one another to produce a ''locked'' solution in which one mode performs precisely q cycles each time the other mode performs p cycles, with p and q being integers. In this study we discuss mode-locking in the context of the well-known Goodwin business cycle. We demonstrate how a simple model of this cycle when perturbed by a sine wave can produce mode-locking along with the associated phenomena of a devil's staircase and so-called Arnol'd tongues. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 COPENHAGEN SCH ECON & BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MATH SCI & STAT,DK-1925 FREDERIKSBERG C,DENMARK. CR ARNOLD VI, 1965, AM MATH SOC TRANSL 2, V46, P213 BAK P, 1985, PHYSICA SCRIPTA T, V9, P50 BOHR T, 1984, PHYSICAL REV A, V30, P1070 FEIGENBAUM MJ, 1978, J STAT PHYS, V19, P25 FORRESTER JW, 1977, ECONOMIST, V125, P525 GABISH G, 1989, BUSINESS CYCLE THEOR GLASS L, 1986, CHAOS, P237 GLASS L, 1988, CLOCKS CHAOS GLAZIER JA, 1986, PHYS REV A, V34, P1621 GOODWIN RM, 1951, ECONOMETRICA, V19, P1 GUEVARA MR, 1981, SCIENCE, V214, P1350 HAXHOLDT C, 1995, SYST DYNAM REV, V11, P177 JENSEN MH, 1984, PHYS REV A, V30, P1960 KNUDSEN C, 1991, PHYS REV A, V44, P3503 LARSEN ER, 1993, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V17, P759 MANDELBROT BB, 1977, FRACTALS FORM CHANCE MAY RM, 1976, NATURE, V261, P459 MOSEKILDE E, 1992, ANN OPER RES, V32, P185 PARLITZ U, 1987, PHYSICAL REV A, V36, P1429 SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES SEMMLER W, 1994, BUSINESS CYCLES THEO STURIS J, 1991, J CLIN INVEST, V87, P493 THOMPSON JMT, 1986, NONLINEAR DYNAMICS C WOLF A, 1985, PHYSICA D, V16, P285 WOLF A, 1986, CHAOS, P273 NR 25 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 56 IS 2 BP 119 EP 130 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XW969 UT ISI:A1997XW96900002 ER PT J AU Payson, S TI The difficulty of measuring capital, revisited - Does science offer an alternative? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID HEDONIC PRICE FUNCTIONS; INDEXES; MARKET; CHOICE; MODEL; FORM AB This article examines the difficulty that economists have had in measuring capital in physically meaningful units, and what might be gained in our understanding of technological change if such physically meaningful units could be found and utilized. The article acknowledges that no single unit of physical measurement could feasibly be used for all forms of physical capital, but proposes that physical capital be partitioned into categories, within which unique physical units of measure could be applied. The physical units identified are: (1) energy consumption capacity of manufacturing equipment; (2) the speed of calculations in information processing; (3) the floor space and volume of structures; (4) acres of utilized land; and (5) all other raw materials, weighted by economic value. This choice of physically meaningful units is supported by the results of various hedonic price studies on capital equipment, which include studies of residential housing and commercial buildings, computers, and industrial equipment. As the history of such hedonic studies unfolds, one observes consistent patterns in the role played by these natural units, e.g., consistent, rapid increase in the speed of computer calculations. It is argued that technological change in capital equipment is well reflected and understood in terms of these natural units. In contrast current methods of partitioning capital into existing categories, like those used in U.S. national accounts, may serve other purposes very well, but reveal little about the causality of technological change. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 MARYMOUNT UNIV,ARLINGTON,VA. RP Payson, S, NATL SCI FDN,4201 WILSON BLVD,SUITE 965,ARLINGTON,VA 22230. CR *BLS STAFF, 1983, B US DEP LAB, V2178 ARCHIBALD RB, 1979, SO EC J, V46, P528 BERNDT E, 1993, PRICE MEASUREMENTS T, V57, P63 BERNDT ER, 1995, J ECONOMETRICS, V68, P243 BHAGWATI JN, 1984, LECT INT TRADE, P249 CAGAN P, 1965, NATL BANKING REV, V3, P217 CALE EG, 1979, COMMUN ACM, V22, P225 CARTWRIGHT DW, 1985, 4 US DEP COMM BUR EC CHESHIRE P, 1995, ECONOMICA, V62, P247 CHOW CC, 1967, AM ECON REV, V57, P1117 COOPER D, 1993, J AGR ECON, V44, P67 COURT A, 1939, DYNAMICS AUTOMOBILE CROPPER ML, 1988, REV ECON STAT, V70, P668 DESILVA H, 1988, 88154 U CAL BERK I B DHRYMES P, 1970, PRICE INDEXES QUALIT DINAN TM, 1989, J URBAN ECON, V25, P52 DULBERGER ER, 1989, TECHNOLOGY CAPITAL F EICHNER AS, 1983, WHY EC IS NOT YET SC, P214 FEENSTRA RC, 1986, 1978 NAT BUR EC RES FISHER FM, 1972, EC THEORY PRICE INDI FLAMM K, 1987, TARGETING COMPUTER FOSS MF, 1963, SURVEY CURR BUS, V43, P8 GILLEY OW, 1995, REV ECON STAT, V77, P609 GORDON RJ, 1987, 2227 NBER GRILICHES Z, 1961, GEN SERIES NATL BURE, V73 GRILICHES Z, 1990, 50 YEARS EC MEASUREM, P197 GRILICHES Z, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P1 ITO T, 1993, MONETARY EC STUDIES, V11, P1 JORGENSON DW, 1967, REV ECON STUD, V34, P249 KNIGHT KE, 1966, DATAMATION, P40 LADD GW, 1976, AM J AGR ECON, V58, P504 LANCASTER KJ, 1966, J POLITICAL EC, V74, P132 MCMILLAN ML, 1980, LAND ECON, V56, P315 MICHAELS R, 1979, J IND ECON, V27, P263 MOULTON BR, 1995, J ECONOMETRICS, V68, P181 OLINER SD, 1993, PRICE MEASUREMENTS T OTHA M, 1975, J POLITICAL EC, V83, P1 PAYSON S, 1994, QUALITY MEASUREMENT RASMUSSEN DW, 1990, APPL ECON, V22, P431 RATCHFORD BT, 1976, J BUS, V49, P194 ROBINSON J, 1966, ACCUMULATION CAPITAL ROSEN S, 1974, J POLITICAL EC, V82, P34 SHARPE WF, 1969, EC COMPUTER SHIRATSUKA S, 1995, BANK JAPAN MONETARY, V13, P17 SIEGEL D, 1994, ECON INQ, V32, P11 SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 STAVINS J, 1995, REV ECON STAT, V77, P571 STONEMAN P, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUS STONEMAN P, 1978, APPL ECON, V10, P125 TRIPLETT JE, 1969, J POLITICAL EC, V77, P408 TRIPLETT JE, 1989, TECHNOLOGY CAPITAL F WALLACE WE, 1985, IND POLICIES COMPUTE WISNIEWSKI EJ, 1994, COGNITIVE SCI, V18, P221 NR 53 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 56 IS 2 BP 131 EP 154 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XW969 UT ISI:A1997XW96900003 ER PT J AU Hora, SC VonWinterfeldt, D TI Nuclear waste and future societies: A look into the deep future SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PROBABILITIES AB Inadvertent human intrusion is thought to be a significant, if not the most significant, threat to nuclear waste held in repositories. As part of the effort to access the safety of the first United States repository, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad, New Mexico, four interdisciplinary teams of experts were brought together to provide insights into the modes and likelihoods of such intrusions as far as 10,000 years in the future. A formal expert elicitation process was used in obtaining their judgments. The teams provided scenarios that, although formed using different approaches, reflected several central themes. These themes are the uncertainty about the need for resource exploration in the future, the rate at which technology develops or declines in future, the likely failure of government control of radioactive waste sites, and the preservation and potential loss of memory about nuclear waste. Identifying possible futures enhances the ability to construct a repository that will be robust against many different potential threats. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV SO CALIF,LOS ANGELES,CA. RP Hora, SC, UNIV HAWAII,200 W KAWILI ST,HILO,HI 96720. CR 1985, FED REGISTER, V50, P38066 *EL POW RES I, 1986, NP426 EL POW RES I *HUM INT TASK FORC, 1984, ONWI537 HUM INT TASK *NUCL EN AG, 1989, RISK ASS HUM INTR RA *NUCL EN AG, 1992, SYST APPR SCEN DEV *NUCL EN AG, 1993, ASS FUT HUM ACT RAD BONANO EJ, 1989, SAND891821 SAND NAT COOKE RM, 1990, EXPERTS UNCERTAINTY FISCHHOFF B, 1978, J EXPT PSYCHOL HUMAN, V4, P330 GUZOWSKI RV, 1990, SAND897149 SAND NAT HORA SC, 1989, NUCL SCI ENG, V102, P323 HORA SC, 1991, SAND903063 SAND NAT KEENEY RL, 1991, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V38, P191 MORGAN M, 1984, RISK ANAL, V3, P201 NR 14 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 56 IS 2 BP 155 EP 170 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XW969 UT ISI:A1997XW96900004 ER PT J AU Lomberg, J Hora, SC TI Very long term communication intelligence - The case of markers for nuclear waste sites SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Warning markers for long-term nuclear waste storage sites are required to prevent inadvertent human intrusion in the distant future. Two interdisciplinary teams have addressed the issues of physical durability and cognitive intelligibility of such markers for a U.S. government site in New Mexico. Preliminary design criteria have determined which materials are best suited to constitute markers of different sizes and shapes. A variety of linguistic, symbolic, and pictographic approaches to content have been suggested. Additional study and testing of both materials and messages is required. International standardization of marker strategies is extremely desirable. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV HAWAII,HILO,HI 96720. CR 1985, FED REGISTER, V50, P30872 1985, FED REGISTER, V50, P38072 1985, FED REGISTER, V50, P38084 *NUCL EN AG, 1994, ASS FUT HUM ACT RAD *RAD PROT NUCL SAF, 1993, DISP HIGH LEV RAD WA BERRY WE, 1984, ONWI474 BAT MEM I BRODRICK AH, 1948, PREHISTORIC PAINTING CROFF AG, 1992, P INT HIGH LEV WAST DREYFUSS H, 1972, SYMBOL SOURCEBOOK AU ESLINGER PW, 1993, PNL8444 FORD JP, 1989, JPLPUBL8941 CALTECH GALSON DA, 1993, ASSESSMENT FUTURE HU GUZOWSKI RV, 1991, BACKGROUND INFORMATI HEBERT JH, 1994, W HAWAII TODAY 1208 HOGBEN LT, 1949, CAVE PAINTING COMIC JOHNSON FC, 1971, STICK FIGURE DRAWING KAPLAN MF, 1984, ONWI354 BAT MEM I LEHNER E, 1950, SYMBOLS SIGNS SIGNET MACDONALD HC, 1973, MOD GEOL, V4, P145 MATHEWS B, 1986, HERDER SYMBOL DICT MELLGRAN D, 1994, W HAWAII TODAY 1208 SABINS FF, 1978, REMOTE SENSING PRINC SAGAN C, 1978, MURMURS EARTH VOYAGE SILVA M, 1994, EEG55 SWADESH M, 1952, P AM PHILOS SOC, V96, P452 TRAUTH KM, 1993, EXPERT JUDGMENT MARK WINKLER EM, 1975, STONE PROPERTIES DUR NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 56 IS 2 BP 171 EP 188 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XW969 UT ISI:A1997XW96900005 ER PT J AU VonTunzelmann, GN TI Innovation and industrialization: A long-term comparison SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNICAL CHANGE; TECHNOLOGIES; DIFFUSION; ORIGINS; GROWTH AB This article aims to link the micro-level changes in firms, as the source of production behavior, with meso-level changes in industrial structure and macro-level changes in growth and development performance. It focuses on the three great industrial revolutions of the last quarter of the present millennium. These differed among themselves in almost every major way, which inhibits generalization but shows that systems (here the ''national systems of production'') are very different, and that ''convergence'' of a later industrializing country upon its predecessor is improbable. Each industrial revolution possesses considerable internal logic but is less flexible in regard to adopting features of its successor. As a result, mismatches arise over time between the specified constituents of the production systems, as demonstrated by economic phenomena such as unemployment and political phenomena such as ideology. The task of resolving such mismatches has fallen back on the micro level of firms and households, which itself has imposed serious strains on the productive system. Such heterogeneity imposes severe limitations on the ability to link technological forecasting and social change in the long term. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP VonTunzelmann, GN, UNIV SUSSEX,SCI POLICY RES UNIT,MANTELL BLDG,BRIGHTON BN1 9RF,E SUSSEX,ENGLAND. CR *OECD TECHN EC PRO, 1992, TECHN EC KEY REL ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 AMABLE B, 1995, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V6, P167 AOKI M, 1986, AM ECON REV, V76, P971 AOKI M, 1988, INFORMATION INCENTIV ASHTON TS, 1948, IND REVOLUTION 1760 AYRES RU, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P1 BELL RM, 1972, CHANGING TECHNOLOGY BENIGER JR, 1986, CONTROL REVOLUTION T BERG M, 1994, AGE MANUFACTURES IND BEST MH, 1990, NEW COMPETITION I IN BLACKBUM P, 1985, TECHNOLOGY EC GROWTH BOYER R, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, CH4 BRAVERMAN H, 1974, LABOR MONOPOLY CAPIT BUCHANAN RA, 1989, ENG HIST ENG PROFESS CALVERT MA, 1967, MECH ENG AM 1830 191 CATLING H, 1970, SPINNING MULE CHANDLER AD, 1990, SCALE SCOPE DYNAMICS CHANG A, 1992, PATHOL ANNU, V27, P263 DAVID PA, 1975, TECHNICAL CHOICE INN DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 ELBAUM B, 1986, DECLINE BRIT EC FISHLOW A, 1965, AM RAILROADS TRANSFO FONG HD, 1930, TRIUMPH FACTORY SYST FORAY D, 1996, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH KN FORD H, 1924, MY LIFE WORK FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, CH3 GOSPEL HF, 1991, IND TRAINING TECHNOL HANDLER AD, 1977, VISIBLE HAND MANAGER HOBDAY M, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P333 HUTTON W, 1995, GUARDIAN 1228 INGHAM H, 1992, ADOPTION NEW TECHNOL KALDOR N, 1961, THEORY CAPITAL KEYNES JM, 1936, GENERAL THEORY EMPLO KODAMA F, 1991, ANAL JAPANESE HIGH T KUHN TS, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU KUZNETS S, 1973, AM ECON REV, V63, P247 LAKATOS I, 1987, METHODOLOGY SCI RES, V1 LANDES DS, 1986, J ECON HIST, V46, P585 LATSIS SJ, 1976, METHOD APPRAISAL EC LAZONICK W, 1979, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V3, P231 LAZONICK W, 1981, Q J ECON, V96, P89 LEONARDBARTON D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MACLEOD C, 1992, ECON HIST REV, V45, P285 MARGLIN S, 1974, REV RADICAL POLITICA, V6, P33 MARSHALL A, 1919, IND TRADE STUDY IND MARX K, 1973, GRUNDRISSE F CRITIQU MOKYR J, 1993, BRIT IND REVOLUTION MOKYR J, 1994, EC HIST BRITAIN 1700, P12 MOWERY DC, 1989, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E NELSON RR, 1993, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT NORTH DC, 1981, STRUCTURE CHANGE EC PATEL P, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P533 PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P357 ROMER PM, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P3 ROSENBERG N, 1963, J ECON HIST, V23, P414 ROSTOW WW, 1975, IT ALL BEGAN ORIGINS SALAIMARTIN XX, 1996, ECON J, V106, P1019 SCAZZIERI R, 1993, THEORY PRODUCTION TA SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES SCHUMPETER JA, 1943, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SMITH A, 1976, WEALTH NATIONS SOETE L, 1987, TECHNICAL CHANGE FUL, P189 SWANN GMP, 1986, QUALITY INNOVATION E THOMSON R, 1987, J ECON HIST, V47, P433 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I VONTUNZELMANN GN, 1989, IND DYNAMICS, P55 VONTUNZELMANN GN, 1993, IND REVOLUTION BRIT, P254 VONTUNZELMANN GN, 1995, TECHNOLOGY IND PROGR VONTUNZELMANN N, 1995, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V6, P1 VONTUNZELMANN N, 1996, 29 STEEP SPRU U SUSS WILLIAMSON OE, 1985, EC I CAPITALISM WRIGHT G, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P651 NR 75 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 56 IS 1 BP 1 EP 23 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XT870 UT ISI:A1997XT87000001 ER PT J AU Watts, RJ Porter, AL TI Innovation forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY; DIFFUSION AB Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diffusion, and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what matters for successful innovation, but most technological forecasts key on limited empirical measures quite divorced from those innovation process models. We glean a number of concepts from various innovation models, then present an array of bibliometric measures that offer the promise of operationalizing these concepts. Judicious combination of such bibliometrics with other forms of evidence offers an enriched form of technological forecasting we call ''innovation forecasting.'' This provides a good means to combine technological trends, mapping of technological interdependencies, and competitive intelligence to produce a viable forcast. We illustrate by assessing prospects for ceramic engine technologies. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 USA,TACOM,WARREN,MI. GEORGIA TECH,TECHNOL POLICY & ASSESSMENT CTR,ATLANTA,GA. CR ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 BARBIROLI G, 1992, TECHNOVATION, V12, P285 BURGELMAN R, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P159 CETRON MJ, 1973, 21 JOINT ENG C, P11 COHEN HS, 1979, RES MANAGE, V22, P11 CUNNINGHAM SW, 1997, THESIS U SUSSEX BRIG DEERWESTER S, 1990, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V41, P391 DROR I, 1989, R D MANAGE, V19, P243 DUNPHY SM, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V53, P279 FRANKLIN JJ, 1988, HDB QUANTITATIVE STU FUNATANI K, 1995, AUTOMOTIVE ENG JAN, P15 GARFIELD E, 1978, METRIC SCI ADVENT SC HAMEL G, 1995, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P596 KOSTOFF RM, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P207 KOSTOFF RN, 1993, EVALUATING R D IMPAC, P63 KOSTOFF RN, 1994, 4 INT C MAN TECHN MI, P423 KOSTOFF RN, 1994, COMPETITIVE INTELLIG, V5, P48 LARSEN RP, 1988, OUTLOOK CERAMICS HEA, P4 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MAHAJAN V, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P109 MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA METCALFE JS, 1981, FUTURES, V13, P347 METCALFE JS, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P560 MILLSON MR, 1992, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V9, P53 MODIS T, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P157 NARIN F, 1994, EVALUATION REV, V18, P65 PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME PORTER AL, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P237 PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG RAZIM C, 1991, CERAMICS AUTOMOTIVE, P277 RIP A, 1988, HDB QUANTITATIVE STU ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SMALL H, 1974, SCI STUD, V4, P17 SMITH CG, 1992, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V9, P279 SOUDER WE, 1987, MANAGING NEW PRODUCT SOUDER WE, 1990, TECHNOLOGY TRANS WIN, P5 TAKAO H, 1991, P INT S CER MAT COMP, P130 TIJSSEN RJW, 1994, EVALUATION REV, V18, P98 TWISS BC, 1992, FORECASTING TECHNOLO VANSTON JH, 1995, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI WATTS RJ, 1996, THESIS NATL TECHNOLO NR 41 TC 15 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 56 IS 1 BP 25 EP 47 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XT870 UT ISI:A1997XT87000002 ER PT J AU Islam, T Meade, N TI The diffusion of successive generations of a technology: A more general model SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION DIFFUSION; SUBSTITUTION AB In many cases of technological development, successive generations of a technology evolve, each more efficient than its predecessor. It has been assumed when modeling and forecasting the adoption of these technologies that the market reaction to each generation was similar. Using the terminology of the Bass model, this similarity is encapsulated in the assumption that the coefficients of innovation and imitation are constant. New data for two and three generations of mobile telephone technology from eleven countries are modeled. The modeling framework used-simultaneous estimation for successive generations using a full information maximum likelihood procedure-demonstrates that, in most cases, the hypothesis of constant coefficients can be rejected. Use of a model with changing coefficients is shown to considerably improve forecasting performance. These results were reinforced by analysis of data for four generations of IBM mainframes. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV LONDON IMPERIAL COLL SCI TECHNOL & MED,SCH MANAGEMENT,LONDON SW7 2PG,ENGLAND. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GAMERMAN D, 1991, J OPER RES SOC, V42, P119 HALL BH, 1992, TIME SERIES PROCESSO KUMAR U, 1992, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V39, P158 MAHAJAN V, 1979, J MARKETING, V43, P55 MAHAJAN V, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V51, P109 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MEADE N, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P429 MEADE N, 1985, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V30, P1103 MEADE N, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P389 NORTON JA, 1982, SLOAN MANAGEMENT WIN, P66 NORTON JA, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1069 PADGETT JE, 1995, IEEE COMMUN MAG, V33, P28 ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SHARP JA, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P453 SKIADAS CH, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P313 SPEECE MW, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P281 NR 18 TC 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 56 IS 1 BP 49 EP 60 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XT870 UT ISI:A1997XT87000003 ER PT J AU Majumdar, SK TI Modularity and productivity - Assessing the impact of digital technology in the US telecommunications industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PERFORMANCE; INNOVATION; EFFICIENCY; SCALE AB This article investigates the impact of digital technology diffusion on the productivity of firms making up the local operating sector of the U.S. telecommunications industry for the years 1991 to 1993. Diffusion of digital technology is measured as the extent of line digitalization that has taken place, with digitalization expected to enable firms to reap significant operating efficiencies. While the diffusion of this particular technology in the local operating company sector has been relatively low, it is found that, after controlling for the effects of a number of other covariates also likely to affect firm-level performance, the spread of digital technology within the U.S. local telephone network plays a significant and positive role in impacting productive efficiency of the firms making up the network. The investments that have been made in energizing the U.S. information superhighway, via the digitalization of telephone lines, are justified in productive efficiency terms. The article contributes to empirical literature in the technical change area which assesses the firm-level productive efficiency consequences of technology diffusion. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Majumdar, SK, UNIV MICHIGAN,SCH BUSINESS,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. CR *FED COMM COMM, STAT COMM COMM CARR ANTONELLI C, 1991, DIFFUSION ADV TELECO BANKER RD, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P1078 BOLTER WG, 1990, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P CHARNES A, 1978, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V2, P429 CLARK KB, 1987, COMPETITIVE CHALLENG DASGUPTA P, 1986, NEW DEV ANAL MARKET DAVID PA, 1988, INFORMATION EC POLIC, V3, P165 DOMAR ED, 1963, J POLITICAL EC, V71, P586 DORFMAN R, 1958, LINEAR PROGRAMMING E EGAN B, 1991, INFORMATION SUPERHIG FARRELL MJ, 1957, J ROYAL STATISTICA A, V120, P253 FLAMM K, 1989, CHANGING RULES TECHN FRANKEL M, 1955, AM ECON REV, V45, P296 GREEN JH, 1992, BUSINESS ONE IRWIN H HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 HICKS J, 1989, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V13, P9 HSIAO C, 1986, ANAL PANEL DATA KAMIEN M, 1982, MASRKET STRUCTURE IN KARSHENAS M, 1994, RAND J ECON, V24, P503 LINK AN, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE MAJUMDAR SK, 1994, J ECON PSYCHOL, V15, P405 MAJUMDAR SK, 1995, EUR T TELECOMMUN REL, V6, P385 MAJUMDAR SK, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P803 MAJUMDAR SK, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V50, P153 MAJUMDAR SK, 1996, MANAGERIAL DECISION, V17, P301 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY ROSENBERG N, 1988, NEW TECHNOLOGY DEV E SALTER WEG, 1966, PRODUCTIVITY TECHNIC SCHERER FM, 1990, IND MARKET STRUCTURE SCHMOOKLER J, 1952, REV ECON STAT, V34, P214 SCHUMPETER JA, 1976, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SEIFORD LM, 1990, J ECONOMETRICS, V46, P7 SKOOG RE, 1980, DESIGN COST CHARACTE SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 THIRTLE C, 1987, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G TUSHMAN ML, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P1 WAVERMAN L, 1989, CHANGING RULES TECHN WEISMAN DL, 1988, YALE J REGULATION, V5, P149 ZANFEI A, 1992, EC INFORMATION NETWO NR 40 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 56 IS 1 BP 61 EP 75 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XT870 UT ISI:A1997XT87000004 ER PT J AU Chiang, JT TI Defense conversion into a global system of proprietary technologies - The case of Taiwan's aircraft industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB To further industrial development, Taiwan's government has officially targeted the aircraft industry, specifically the Aero Industry Development Center (AIDC)-producer of Taiwan's combat aircraft with a two-and-a-half-decade history. However, despite AIDC's experience in aerodynamics, structure, and engines, redirecting its engineering and production capabilities for commercial jets poses many difficulties. Because military and civilian needs of aircraft design are very different, the commercial benefits of military work on airframes are minimal. In contract manufacturing, one critical factor is efficiency, but AIDC is still relatively weak in scale economies, scope economies, and experience curve. Another critical factor is technology, but most functional and design specifications and standards are imposed by the upper-tier buyers and the integrators. Moreover, neither spin-off nor dual-use strategy can apply effectively, leaving AIDC an enclave isolated from local industry. Overall, the prospect of AIDC's defense conversion is dismal. The military does not have the capability to endorse the transformation; the civilian government is not familiar with the commercial practices; the local firms are not interested in entering this industry; the commercial businesses are largely controlled by the world leading integrators; and, most important, AIDC's core competence is fairly weak. The case typifies a government's futile efforts in a global industry of complex proprietary technological systems. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Chiang, JT, NATL TAIWAN UNIV,COLL MANAGEMENT,50 LANE 144,SECT 4,KEELUNG RD,TAIPEI 10764,TAIWAN. CR *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, DEF CONV RED R D *OFF TECHN ASS, 1994, ASS POT CIV MIL INT ALIC JA, 1992, SPINOFF MILITARY COM CHIANG JT, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P365 CHIANG JT, 1996, DEV TECHNOLOGY MANAG DERTOUZOS ML, 1989, MADE AM REGAINING PR ERNST D, 1989, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CO FREEMAN C, 1982, EC IND INNOVATION FROSTIC FL, 1989, DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY HOU CM, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST MARCH A, 1989, WORKING PAPERS MIT C PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG TOOD D, 1986, WORLD AIRCRAFT IND WULF H, 1983, STRUCTURE DEFENSE IN NR 14 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 56 IS 1 BP 77 EP 85 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XT870 UT ISI:A1997XT87000005 ER PT J AU Jeong, GH Kim, SH TI A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SYSTEM AB This article presents a qualitative analysis method based on fuzzy relations for a cross-impact model designed for a technology impact assessment. The cross-impact knowledge is often uncertain or fuzzy when dealing with future events. Assessing the cross-impact relationships among future technologies creates a more uncertain or fuzzy situation because of the time and the uncertainty involved in evaluating future technologies. In addition, experts prefer to use Linguistic terms or fuzzy values in their predictions. Thus a cross-impact matrix is represented as fuzzy relations on causal concepts. We therefore develop inference algorithms based on fuzzy relations and show a simple technology assessment example to illustrate this approach. This approach is useful in finding the key technology because it considers not only the direct impact but also the indirect impact. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 KOREA ADV INST SCI & TECHNOL,GRAD SCH MANAGEMENT,SEOUL 130012,SOUTH KOREA. DONGDUCK WOMENS UNIV,DEPT INFORMAT & COMP SCI,SEOUL,SOUTH KOREA. CR BRIGHT JR, 1978, PRACTICAL TECHNOLOGY BURGELMAN RA, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT CHENG CH, 1993, FUZZY SET SYST, V56, P29 CHO YY, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V40, P273 COATES JF, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P341 GORDON T, 1968, FUTURE, V1 LEE AM, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P15 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MARUYAMA M, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P409 MERKHOFER MW, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P237 ROCHBERG R, 1970, I FUTURE R 10 APR TERANO T, 1992, FUZZY SYSTEMS THEORY TUROFF M, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P303 WATSON RH, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V11, P165 ZADEH LA, 1965, FUZZY SETS INFORMATI, V8, P338 ZADEH LA, 1975, INFORMATION SCI, V8, P199 NR 16 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 55 IS 3 BP 203 EP 214 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XG755 UT ISI:A1997XG75500001 ER PT J AU Sutherland, JW TI A prospective on macrocybernetic process management systems SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In an editorial in the February 1996 issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change Professor Linstone noted that ''the rapid pace of technology has not been matched by the pace of human change.'' Were we to drop our perspective a bit lower, a similarly troublesome imbalance within technology itself becomes apparent: the rapid rate of increase in the complexity of process-related technologies relative to the much slower rate of increase in the sophistication of process control systems. The conclusion at which most technological forecasts seem to arrive is that there will be a continuation - perhaps even an acceleration - of the trend toward more intricate and sweepingly extensive processes (production-related and otherwise). If so, there is the specter of a steadily increasing shortfall between requirements and capabilities, and hence the likelihood of even grander technological embarrassments. This article considers two ways in which this shortfall might be kept in check. Increases in the intricacy of processes can be met, and to a considerable extent are already being met, by exchanging conventional process control facilities for enhanced alternatives. Less certain is how expansions of project scope might best be accommodated. One possibility is to consider exchanging process control systems for broader-purview process management systems. Hence the focus in this article is on prospects for the development of macrocybernetic constructs. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIV,RICHMOND,VA. CR ALLEN FR, 1992, MANAGEMENT RISK SOC ANTSAKLIS PJ, 1993, INTRO INTELLIGENT AU AYLOR S, 1992, COMPUT IND ENG, V22, P481 BIERNSON G, 1988, PRINCIPLES FEEDBACK, V2 BIONDO SJ, 1993, FUNDAMENTALS EXPERT CARNINO A, 1990, MAN RISKS TECHNOLOGI CHEN M, 1995, P 34 IEEE C DEC CONT, V1 CHERNOUSENKO VM, 1981, CHERNOBYL INSIGHT IN CHESMOND CJ, 1990, BASIC CONTROL SYSTEM DROUIN M, 1991, CONTROL COMPLEX SYST DURRANTWHYTE HF, 1988, INTEGRATION COORDINA FERRY TS, 1984, READINGS ACCIDENT IN FRANKLIN G, 1991, FEEDBACK CONTROL DYN GREFENSTETTE JJ, 1986, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V16, P122 HAGER GD, 1990, TASK DIRECTED SENSOR HARMAN WW, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P1 HARMON P, 1990, CREATING EXPERT SYST HIROTA K, 1993, IND APPL FUZZY TECHN IGNIZIO JP, 1991, INTRO EXPERT SYSTEMS ILCHMANN A, 1993, NONIDENTIFER BASED H IRWIN GW, 1992, TRANSPUTERS REAL TIM JAMSHIDI M, 1992, RECENT ADV COMPUTER KARR CL, 1996, J NETW COMPUT APPL, V19, P21 LEWIS RS, 1988, CHALLENGER FINAL VOY LIN CF, 1994, ADV CONTROL SYSTEMS LIN CT, 1994, NEURAL FUZZY CONTROL MARTIN D, 1980, 3 MILE ISLAND PROLOG MCAVOY TJ, 1989, MODEL BASED PROCESS MCCONNELL M, 1987, CHALLENGER MAJOR MAL MILLER WT, 1990, NEURAL NETWORKS CONT NISHITANI H, 1996, J PROCESS CONTR, V6, P111 NUGENT T, 1973, DEATH BUFFALO CREEK OHBA R, 1992, INTELLIGENT SENSOR T PAGE GF, 1993, APPL NEURAL NETWORKS PATECORNELL EM, 1996, RELIABILITY ENG SYST, V53, P115 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PETERSEN D, 1984, HUMAN ERROR REDUCTIO RAO M, 1992, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS I RASMUSSEN J, 1987, NEW TECHNOLOGY HUMAN RICHARDS K, 1996, CONTROL INSTRUM, V28, P41 ROGERS E, 1993, PARALLEL PROCESSING SHCHERBAK I, 1989, CHERNOBYL DOCUMENTAR SHERIDAN TB, 1992, TELEROBOTICS AUTOMAT STARR P, 1983, 3 MILE ISLAND SOURCE STEPHENS M, 1980, 3 MILES ISLAND SUTHERLAND JW, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P279 SUTHERLAND JW, 1990, THEOR DECIS, P29 TAIVALSAARI A, 1993, J SYST SOFTWARE, V21, P3 TZAFESTAS SG, 1991, INTELLIGENT ROBOTIC TZAFESTAS SG, 1993, APPL CONTROL CURRENT VEMURI SV, 1992, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NE WARWICK K, 1991, ADV METHODS ADAPTIVE WILLCOCKS L, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P205 NR 53 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 55 IS 3 BP 215 EP 248 PG 34 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XG755 UT ISI:A1997XG75500002 ER PT J AU DeCanio, SJ Laitner, JA TI Modeling technological change in energy demand forecasting - A generalized approach SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID EFFICIENCY; DIFFUSION; SUBSTITUTION; DISCOUNT AB Conventional economic modeling of energy demand has characterized technological choice as an investment decision driven primarily by the relationship between capital costs and operating costs. Yet the implementation of this approach has tended to yield unrealistically high estimates of the implicit discount rate governing investment decisions, particularly those involving energy efficient technologies. This result arises from incomplete specification of the process of technological choice and the diffusion of innovations. General models of diffusion include conventional costs as one set of factors among many others that influence the spread of new technologies. These more general models have been widely applied to the adoption of other new or improved products, and their use in energy demand forecasting would lead to more accurate and reliable projections. Modification of the forecasts would have policy implications. In particular, the cost of a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by encouraging more rapid diffusion of energy efficient technologies is likely to be considerably smaller than would be suggested by the conventional economic models. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 ECON RES ASSOCIATES,ALEXANDRIA,VA. RP DeCanio, SJ, UNIV CALIF SANTA BARBARA,DEPT ECON,SANTA BARBARA,CA 93106. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 55 IS 3 BP 249 EP 263 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XG755 UT ISI:A1997XG75500003 ER PT J AU Klein, JJ Lim, YT TI Econometric study on the technology gap between Korea and Japan - The case of the general machinery and electrical and electronic industries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MODEL; SUBSTITUTION AB This article presents an econometric model relating to the technological development problem of a technologically less developed country when there is a technology transfer from the leader (Japan) to the follower (Korea) nation. By developing a sensitivity analysis of the follower's development speed, the article seeks to determine the most effective means of improving the technological level of the follower nation. The alternatives of independent technological development and the importation of advanced technology from the leader nation are considered. The results of the study indicate that it is more effective for the follower to assimilate, modify, and localize the leader's technologies. The general machinery industry and the electrical and electronic industry are examined. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 HANYANG UNIV,DEPT ECON,SEOUL 133791,SOUTH KOREA. GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303. CR BALASUBRAMANYAM VN, 1973, INT TRANSFER TECHNOL BASTER N, 1972, MEASURING DEV BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BLACKMAN AW, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P41 FAGERBERG J, 1994, J ECON LIT, V32, P1147 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FLOYD A, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA GRUBER WH, 1969, FACTORS TRANSFER TEC, CH9 HALL GR, 1970, TECHNOLOGY FACTOR IN LIM YT, 1986, STUDY KOREAS TECHNOL, CH4 LIM YT, 1987, ANAL EFFECTS STRATEG, P1 LIM YT, 1987, STUDY SPEED TECHNOLO, P1 LIM YT, 1989, HANYANG J EC STUDIES, V10, P149 LIM YT, 1991, HANYANG J EC STUDIES, V12, P17 LIM YT, 1995, VISION CHALLENGES KO, CH7 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 NESBATH L, 1974, DIFFUSION NEW IND PR NIELSEN MB, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P365 POSNER MV, 1961, OXFORD ECON PAP, V13, P323 RAZ B, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V24, P31 RAZ B, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P251 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V16, P3 SPENCER DL, 1967, TRANSFER TECHNOLOGY SUMMERS R, 1991, Q J ECON, V106, P327 SWAN PL, 1973, J IND ECON, V22, P61 VERNON R, 1966, Q J ECON, V80, P190 NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 55 IS 3 BP 265 EP 279 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XG755 UT ISI:A1997XG75500004 ER PT J AU Marchetti, C TI Longevity and life expectancy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The increase in life expectancy at all ages during the last two centuries is in need of a quantitative model capable of resuming the whole process under a single concept and simple mathematics. The basic hypothesis was that through improved hygiene, medicine, and life-style, the stumbling blocks to the full expression of longevity were progressively removed. The mathematics of learning processes was then applied to the secular evolution of life expectancy at various ages. The hypothesis proved very fertile. Logistic equations fit long strings of statistical data, covering the evolution of life expectancy at various ages, for both sexes, and in many European nations for almost two centuries. These life expectancy increases seem to move progressively to a common asymptote of about 79 yeats for men and about 84 years for women. It is suggested that these values are taken as a definition of longevity, presumably explicitating a coding in DNA. The evolution of life expectancy during the last couple of centuries appears to follow consistent paths precisely mapped with simple mathematics. This opens the way to more integrated and holistic theories. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Marchetti, C, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FLORA P, 1983, STATE EC SOC W EUROP KINGSLAND S, 1982, Q REV BIOL MAR, P57 LOTKA AJ, 1956, ELEMENTS MATH BIOL MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARKEY JF, 1928, SYMBOLIC PROCESS MONTROLL EW, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P4633 NR 7 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 55 IS 3 BP 281 EP 299 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XG755 UT ISI:A1997XG75500005 ER PT J AU Deschamps, I Lalonde, M Pauchant, TC Waaub, JP TI What crises could teach us about complexity and systemic management - The case of the Nestucca oil spill SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In this article we attempt to uncover some systemic management principles for the better management of complex issues. Taking a pragmatic approach we have expanded the case methodology proposed by John Dewey to the case study of a major crisis. By proposing that crises allow for a better apprenension of complexity, we study the changes which were carried out or not, to this day, after the 1988 Nestucca oil spill that occurred in Canada only three months prior to the Exxon-Valdez disaster. After conducting a linear and systemic analysis of the crisis, we propose that the changes institutionalized thus far spring mostly from what we call ''behavioral'' and ''paradigmatic'' learning which are weak for addressing complex issues. Proposing that 15% of the people we have interviewed where able to derive a ''systemic learning'' from this crisis, we suggest several unlocking strategies that allow these systemic lessons to be institutionalized. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV MONTREAL,SCH BUSINESS,HEC,MONTREAL,PQ H3T 1V6,CANADA. PVM,MONTREAL,PQ,CANADA. UNIV QUEBEC,MONTREAL,PQ H3C 3P8,CANADA. CR 1993, GAZETTE 0517, A11 *CAN COAST GUARD W, 1989, NEST OIL SPILL REP *GOV CAN, 1991, STAT CAN ENV *NAT OIL SANDS TAS, 1996, VISION, V1, P1 *TRANSP CAN, 1993, GOV FIN RESP PUBL RE ACKOFF RL, 1981, CREATING CORPORATE F ACKOFF RL, 1996, SYST RES, V13, P13 ANDERSON D, 1989, REPORT PREMIER OIL T ARGYRIS C, 1990, OVERCOMING ORG DEFEN BAKER JM, 1990, P 13 ARCT MAR OILSP, P173 BARTUNEK JM, 1987, J APPLIED BEHAVIORAL, V23, P483 BATESON G, 1972, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND BATESON G, 1991, SACRED UNITY FURTHER BOHM D, 1991, CHANGING CONSCIOUSNE BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BRANDERSMITH D, 1989, COMITE EXAMEN PUBLIC BROWN LR, 1993, VITAL SIGNS TRENDS S CARTERL J, 1978, SCIENCE 0505, P514 CHECKLAND P, 1981, SYSTEMS THINKING SYS CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS COLLINGRIDGE D, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P169 DAVIS J, 1991, DEPT FISHERIES OCEAN DEGREENE KB, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P171 DEVALROGER G, 1996, DEVOIR 0117, B4 DEWEY J, 1938, LOGIC THEORY INQUIRY DOLLEY PK, 1975, PRAGMATISM HUMANISM DUVAL W, 1989, NESTUCCA OIL SPILL P GIRARD R, 1982, BOUC EMISSAIRE GLASER BG, 1967, DISCOVERY GROUNDED T GOLDSMITH E, 1990, IMPERILED PLANET RES GUMMESSON E, 1991, QUALITATIVE METHODS HAMEL J, 1993, QUALITATIVE RES METH, V32 HARMAN WW, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P1 HARRIGAN KR, 1980, STRATEGIES DECLINING HAWKINS P, 1991, MANAGEMENT ED DEV, V22, P172 HERRSCHER EG, 1996, SYST RES, V13, P159 HILDEBRANDT FD, 1989, BESTS REV, V90, P12 KEATING M, 1993, HDB ENV JOURNALISM LEAN D, 1992, ATLAS ENV LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY MASON RO, 1981, CHALLENGING STRATEGI MCWHINNEY W, 1992, PATHS CHANGE STRATEG MICHAEL D, 1992, GOVERNING INFORMATIO, P121 MITROFF II, 1993, UNBOUNDED MIND BREAK MONTGOPMERY CW, 1992, ENV GEOLOGY MORIN E, 1993, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V7, P5 NULTY P, 1989, FORTUNE MAGAZIN 0508, P47 NYSTROM PC, 1984, ORGAN DYN, V12, P53 OWENS EH, 1992, BRIT COLUMBIA MARINE PAUCHANT TC, IN PRESS ORG ENV PAUCHANT TC, 1990, ADV STRATEG MANAGE, V6, P99 PAUCHANT TC, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P117 PAUCHANT TC, 1992, TRANSFORMING CRISIS PAUCHANT TC, 1994, CRISES COMPLEX SOC, P59 PAUCHANT TC, 1995, SEARCH MEANING MANAG PAUCHANT TC, 1996, COURAGE COMPLEXITY S PEAK MH, 1990, MANAGE REV, V79, P12 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PERROW C, 1990, AIDS DISASTER FAILUR PUACHANT TC, 1992, ACAD MANAGEMENT EXEC, V6, P66 ROUXDUFORT C, 1993, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V7, P231 SAMPSON A, 1975, 7 SISTERS SCOTT WR, 1981, ORG RATIONAL NATURAL SENGE PM, 1994, 5 DISCIPLINE FIELDBO SERRES M, 1994, ATLAS SHRIVASTAVA P, 1987, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SHRIVASTAVA P, 1995, ACAD MANAGE REV, V20, P118 SMITH D, 1990, IND CRISIS Q, V4, P263 STARBUCK WH, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P319 STARBUCK WH, 1995, ACAD MANAGEMENT NEWS, V25, P1 STEWART GR, 1989, NESTUCCA OIL SPILL R SUZUKI D, 1989, INVENTING FUTURE REF TRIST E, SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT SO, V3 WEICK KE, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P305 YERGIN D, 1992, PRIZE EPIC QUEST OIL YIN RK, 1993, APPL SOCIAL RES METH, V34 YIN RK, 1994, APPL SOCIAL RES METH, V5 NR 77 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 55 IS 2 BP 107 EP 129 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XB702 UT ISI:A1997XB70200001 ER PT J AU Givon, M Mahajan, V Muller, E TI Assessing the relationship between the user-based market share and unit sales-based market share for pirated software brands in competitive markets SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article argues that in a competitive software market, in the presence of differential piracy and brand switching among the various brands within a software product category (e.g., spreadsheets), there may be no relationship between market estimates based on unit sales and the user base of a software brand (e.g., Lotus 1-2-3). Hence, marketing strategies developed for the software brand based on unit sales-based market share may be misleading. To support our argument and to quantify the relationship between unit sales-based market share and the user-based market share, we first extend a diffusion modeling approach for pirated software product categories to model the legal and illegal adoption dynamics of a software brand within a software product category. Second, to examine empirically the relationship between the user-based market share and the unit sales-based market share for a brand, we consider the diffusion of the major brands of two types of software product categories, spreadsheets and word processors, in the United Kingdom. Results indicate that in the product category of spreadsheets, for Lotus 1-2-3, the user-based market share was always less than the unit sales-based market share. On the other hand, in the product category of word processing software, the user-based market share for WordPerfect was always greater than the unit sales-based market share. Marketing implications of these results for Lotus spreadsheets, Novell WordPerfect, and the software industry are discussed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV TEXAS,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,DEPT MARKETING ADM,JOHN P HARBIN CHAIR BUSINESS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. TEL AVIV UNIV,RECANATI GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,IL-69978 TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 CONNER KR, 1991, MANAGE SCI, V17, P125 CUSUMANO MA, 1995, MICROSOFT SECRETS GIVON M, 1995, J MARKETING, V59, P29 GREENBERGER RS, 1996, WALL STREET J 0520, A1 PHILLIPS J, 1991, NAG LIB BEGINNERS GU SIWEK SE, 1993, INT TRADE COMPUTER S SZMANSKI DM, 1993, J MARKETING, V57, P1 WIND Y, 1981, ANN REV MARKETING NR 9 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 55 IS 2 BP 131 EP 144 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XB702 UT ISI:A1997XB70200002 ER PT J AU Mercer, D TI A general hypothesis of aggregated expectations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The aggregated expectations hypothesis, described here in full for the first time, offers a new way of examining likely future outcomes based upon the most important contributor-expectations-to the individual decisions which aggregate to create these final macro-outcomes. It also offers more powerful actors, especially governments, a new tool for influencing some of those future outcomes. The core concept is that the future outcome of an issue, economic or political, will be largely determined by the expectations of those in the population affected whose aggregated individual decisions will shape that outcome. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Mercer, D, OPEN UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,CTR STRATEGY & POLICY,WALTON HALL,MILTON KEYNES MK7 6AA,BUCKS,ENGLAND. CR ANDERSON MA, 1994, J ECON PSYCHOL, V15, P379 ANDREWS FM, 1976, SOCIAL INDICATORS WE CAGAN P, 1956, MONETARY DYNAMICS HY DEMING WE, 1993, NEW EC IND GOVT ED DOPFER K, 1991, J EC ISSUES, V25 FRIEDMANN M, 1968, AM ECON REV, V58, P23 GALBRAITH JK, 1958, AFFLUENT SOC GERRARD B, 1994, ECON J, V4, P327 HAHN F, 1973, MITSUI LECT EC HOMANS GC, 1961, SOCIAL BEHAVIOR ITS KEYNES JM, 1936, GENERAL THEORY EMPLO KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LUCAS RE, 1973, AM ECON REV, V63, P326 MAISTER DH, 1988, PSYCHOL WAITING LINE MERCER D, 1995, LONG RANGE PLANN, V28, P81 MERCER D, 1995, MANAGE DECIS, V33, P32 MERCER D, 1996, MARKETING ED GRO AUG MERCER D, 1996, MARKETING MUTH JF, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P315 SARGENT TJ, 1995, BOUNDED RATIONALITY SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW SHAW GK, 1987, B ECON RES, V39, P187 SIMON HA, 1957, MODELS MAN SVENSSON LEO, 1996, SCAND J ECON, V98, P1 TAYLOR MC, 1982, SOCIAL PSYCHOL Q, V45 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P139 NR 26 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 55 IS 2 BP 145 EP 154 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XB702 UT ISI:A1997XB70200003 ER PT J AU Mercer, D TI Determining aggregated expectations of future outcomes SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SCENARIOS AB This article describes a package of new research techniques that have been developed to allow investigation of long-term global trends. It is based on the theory that expectations (of managers) intimately effect the macro-outcomes of aggregated individual actions. A knowledge of these expectations may be used as a guide to their future actions, and hence to future outcomes overall. To allow this knowledge to be obtained, the qualitative techniques-a combination of focus groups with scenario forecasting-were developed as part of a program of research lasting more than half a decade, and tested against 17 groups consisting of managers from 140 organizations. Subsequent quantitative work, using semantic differentials to map the importance of the 162 dimensions discovered at the qualitative stage, has initially been tested by a survey with respondents from more than 150 organizations. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Mercer, D, OPEN UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,CTR STRATEGY & POLICY,WALTON HALL,MILTON KEYNES MK7 6AA,BUCKS,ENGLAND. CR ACEMOGLU D, 1994, ECON J, V104, P1 AGUILAR FJ, 1967, SCANNING BUSINESS EN BELLENGER DN, 1976, QUALITATIVE RES MARK GOLDMAN AE, 1987, GROUP DEPTH INTERVIE HOLSTI OR, 1969, CONTENT ANAL SOCIAL HOLT K, 1988, TECHNOVATION, V7, P249 JOHNSON RM, 1971, J MARKETING RES, V8, P13 KAHANE A, 1992, LONG RANGE PLANN, V25, P38 KANE J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P129 KRUEGER RA, 1988, FOCUS GROUPS PRACTIC MAKRIDAKIS S, 1988, INT J FORECASTING, P467 MERCER D, 1993, P 1993 TEL C TRONDH MERCER D, 1995, LONG RANGE PLANN, V28, P81 MERCER D, 1995, MANAGE DECIS, V33, P32 MERCER D, 1996, MANAGE DECIS, V34, P55 MERCER D, 1996, MARKETING ED GRO AUG MERCER D, 1996, OR38 OP RES SOC C SE OSGOOD CE, 1957, MEASUREMENT MEANING ROCKFELLOW JD, 1994, FUTURIST JAN, P14 SAMPSON P, 1986, CONSUMER MARKET RES SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW SHAW GK, 1987, B ECON RES, V39, P187 STEINMULLER K, 1996, 5 INT SOMM SEKR ZUK TOFFLER A, 1994, CREATING NEW CIVILIZ TWISS B, 1980, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P139 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P73 WELLS WD, 1974, HDB MARKETING RES NR 28 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 55 IS 2 BP 155 EP 164 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XB702 UT ISI:A1997XB70200004 ER PT J AU Jakelski, D LeBrasseur, R TI Implementing continuous improvement in the North American mining industry SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TOTAL QUALITY; SECTOR AB This study identifies key factors required to successfully change a mining organization's culture to that mandated by a continuous improvement (CI) philosophy. Guided by a change-oriented model of CI implementation and the Malcolm Baldridge criteria, a survey was conducted involving mining firms operating in North America with annual revenues over $100 million. Twenty-four firms participated and resulted in 268 usable questionnaires. A principal component factor analysis followed by linear regression revealed that four factors accounted for success in implementing CI; employee involvement was the most important one. This dominant factor proved to be complex and had elements of the context of change (e.g., acceptance of company goals), the content of change (teamwork, new ways of working, and supportive HRM policies), and the process of change (leadership and access to information). Other predictors included, in order of importance, corporate presence, customer-oriented strategy, and adoption of practical goals. The article concludes with a discussion of employee involvement and the trend toward a productivity gap, with firms pursuing CI in the lead. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 LAURENTIAN UNIV,SCH COMMERCE & ADM,SUDBURY,ON P3E 2C6,CANADA. FALCONBRIDGE LTD,BRUSSELS,BELGIUM. CR *EMPL IMM CAN, 1993, HUM RES STUD CAN MIN *MIN ASS CAN, 1987, INT HUM RES TECHN CA *SOUTH MIN GROUP, 1994, 1994 MIN SOURC AMES LM, 1990, CIM BULL, V83, P51 ANDERSON JC, 1994, ACAD MANAGE REV, V19, P472 BARLEY SR, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P78 BOUNDS G, 1994, TOTAL QUALITY MANAGE, P477 CHILD J, 1987, J MANAGE STUD, V24, P565 DEAN JW, 1994, ACAD MANAGE REV, V19, P392 DEMEUSE KP, 1993, ISSUES OBSERVATIONS, V13 GRANOVETTER M, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V91, P481 GREENWOOD R, 1993, ACAD MANAGE J, V36, P1052 KANO N, 1993, CALIF MANAGE REV, V35, P12 LEBRASSEUR R, 1991, RELAT IND-IND RELAT, V46, P751 LIE J, 1991, SOCIOL PERSPECT, V34, P219 PETTIGREW A, 1990, ORGAN SCI, V3, P267 RAELIN JA, 1985, HUM RESOURCE MANAGE, V24, P147 REGER RK, 1994, ACAD MANAGE REV, V19, P565 REICH R, 1994, J QUALITY PARTICIPAT, V17, P6 NR 19 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 55 IS 2 BP 165 EP 177 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XB702 UT ISI:A1997XB70200005 ER PT J AU Hansen, PA Serin, G TI Will low technology products disappear? The hidden innovation processes in low technology industries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Political discussions and analyses have usually been devoted to an understanding of the development of high technology products, although low technology products have dominated the industrial structure of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The important role of low technology products in these countries raises the question of whether we can observe a technological paradox in the industrial structure of the more advanced nations, the dominant role of this sector in spite of its competitive disadvantages because of high wages. Using the Danish packaging industry as an example, a central thesis in the article is that innovation processes are important in low technology industries. They are also often an integrated part of the marketing and production functions of the firm. The innovation processes in the low technology industries are therefore too complex for traditional R&D analyses to handle. The article points out that-especially in small firms-the ''practical man'' and his ''tacit knowledge'' play a very central role in both product and process development, and that low technology, even in the future, will play a central role in the industrial structure of the OECD countries. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 ROSKILDE UNIV CTR,DEPT SOCIAL STUDIES,ROSKILDE,DENMARK. RP Hansen, PA, ROSKILDE UNIV CTR,INST GEOG & DEV STUDIES,HOUSE 21-2,POSTBOX 260,DK-4000 ROSKILDE,DENMARK. CR *DAN CENTR BUR STA, 1992, IND STAT 1950 *OECD, 1982, INN SMALL MED SIZ FI *OECD, 1995, STI REV, V15 BRUCE M, 1994, TECHNOVATION, V9 CALDECOTTE V, 1979, J ROYAL SOC ARTS OCT, P684 DISGUPTA P, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P487 HANSEN PA, 1989, PLAST GALANTERIVARER HANSEN PA, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P181 HANSEN PA, 1994, FORSKNINGSRAPPORT, V102, P1 HANSEN PA, 1995, TECHNOVATION, V15, P387 LORENZ C, 1986, DESIGN DIMENSION NEW NELSON R, 1992, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P357 PINCHOT G, 1985, INTRAPRENEURING POLANYI M, 1966, TACIT DIMENSION ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC ROSENBERG N, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P165 SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES, V1 VANHULST N, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P455 WALSH VR, 1992, WINNING DESIGN TECHN WINTER SG, 1987, COMPETITIVE CHALLENG NR 22 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 55 IS 2 BP 179 EP 191 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA XB702 UT ISI:A1997XB70200006 ER PT J AU Alic, JA TI Technological change, employment, and sustainability SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB It seems safe to say that in the past technological change created more jobs in total than it destroyed. That this was true in the past does not mean it will be true in the future. As advanced industrial economies struggle with jobless growth, tower-income countries will have to create new jobs in very large numbers. With technology, in all its forms, reducing the direct labor content of production in almost all sectors, it is not clear that there will be enough work either the developed or the developing countries. Any transition to sustainable development requires that most people in most places achieve levels of economic security they deem adequate. Thus, creating decent jobs by the hundreds of millions poses a fundamental bottleneck to sustainability. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Alic, JA, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV,SAIS,1619 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. CR 1996, EC REPORT PRESIDENT, P58 *OFF TECH ASS, 1983, INT COMP EL, P223 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1992, US MEX TRAD PULL TOG *OFF TECHN ASS, 1994, PERSP ROL SCI TECHN, P4 *WORLD BANK, 1995, WORLD DEV REP ALIC JA, 1991, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V3, P177 ALIC JA, 1994, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V47, P139 ALIC JA, 1995, TECHNOL SOC, V17, P429 ATTEWELL P, 1994, ORG LINKAGES UNDERST, P13 BAUMOL WJ, 1994, CONVERGENCE PRODUCTI BEBB HB, 1989, NSF ENG DES RES C U BEIER B, 1990, AUTOMOT IND, P53 BLOCK F, 1990, POSTINDUSTRIAL POSSI, P85 DENISON EF, 1985, TRENDS AM EC GROWTH, P30 DONAGHU MT, 1990, REG STUD, V24, P537 FREEMAN RB, 1995, J ECON PERSPECT, V9, P15 GORDON RJ, 1989, TECHNOLOGY CAPITAL F, P77 GRILICHES Z, 1992, OUTPUT MEASUREMENT S KATES RW, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P43 MADDISON A, 1991, DYNAMIC FORCES CAPIT, P248 MARCHETTI C, 1996, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V52, P1 MURPHY KM, 1993, AM ECON REV, V83, P122 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, 1078 YAL U COWL FDN OLINER SD, 1994, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P273 POLANYI K, 1957, GREAT TRANSFORMATION SCHOEPFLE GK, 1992, 2 US DEP LAB BUR INT, P24 SHAIKEN H, 1990, MEXICO GLOBAL EC HIG STRASSMANN PA, 1990, BUSINESS VALUES COMP WOOD A, 1995, J ECON PERSPECT, V9, P57 ZRAKET CA, 1992, SPINOFF MILITARY COM, P291 NR 30 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 55 IS 1 BP 1 EP 13 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WV407 UT ISI:A1997WV40700001 ER PT J AU Jenkins, L TI Selecting a variety of futures for scenario development SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Systematic development of future scenarios involves identifying key factors and their different possible values, then selecting combinations of factor values on which to build scenarios. This article recapitulates basic methods of reducing the number of possible combinations of factor values by removing futures containing incompatible factor value pairs, then uses probability and cross-impact measures to further eliminate improbable futures. Working with the remaining plausible futures, the aim is to select a small number of them for scenario development in such a way that there is a balance between the factor values explored. The motivation is to explore possible futures while avoiding unintentional bias by over-representing some factor values and neglecting others. The tool used is a mathematical formulation that is easily solved as an integer linear program. The process is illustrated with a small example. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Jenkins, L, ROYAL MIL COLL CANADA,DEPT BUSINESS ADM,KINGSTON,ON K7K 5L0,CANADA. CR COYLE RG, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P25 COYLE RG, 1995, FUTURES, V27, P65 DEKLUYVER CA, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P273 GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC, P21 RHYNE R, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P331 SARIN RK, 1978, FUTURES, V10, P53 SARIN RK, 1979, MANAGE SCI, V25, P543 SCHRAGE L, 1991, LINDO USERS MANUAL R TAHA HA, 1975, INEGER PROGRAMMING, P316 WISSEMA JG, 1976, MORPHOLOGICAL ANAL I, V8, P146 NR 10 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 55 IS 1 BP 15 EP 20 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WV407 UT ISI:A1997WV40700002 ER PT J AU vanWyk, RJ TI Strategic technology scanning SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; BUSINESS; THINKING AB This article proposes a procedure for strategic technology scanning, an activity that has received insufficient attention in the literature to date. Strategic technology scanning is needed to strengthen the link between technology and corporate strategy. This link is ever present although not always explicitly managed. For instance, while it is commonly recognized that the corporate mission dictates the technological interests of the organization, it is not always sufficiently emphasized that it is the quality of technology foresight that shapes the corporate mission in the first place. Scanning enhances technology foresight by seeking major distinguishing features in the technological landscape. These features are termed landmark technologies and serve as indicators of evolving technological and economic potential. For the strategic manager landmark technologies can become focal points for understanding the external environment, very much as core competencies have become focal points for understanding the internal capabilities of the organization. The scanning procedure proposed here is tailored to fit conventional procedures for strategic planning. However, it employs new theoretical structures from the field of strategic technology analysis; and calls for involvement of all levels of the corporate hierarchy-from the corporate board to the technology analyst. It seeks to maximize corporate learning. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP vanWyk, RJ, UNIV CAPE TOWN,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,MANAGEMENT TECHNOL PROGRAMME,BREAKWATER CAMPUS,ZA-8002 GREEN POINT,SOUTH AFRICA. CR 1995, SCI AM, V272 1996, IEEE SPECTRUM, V33 1996, IEEE SPECTRUM, V33, P105 *EUR TECHN MAN IN, 1995, 5 IND FOR TEHCN MAN *O R COMP SYST PRE, 1992, CORP PROF ABELL DF, 1980, DEFINING BUSINESS ST ABETTI PA, 1991, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, P40 ADLER PS, 1989, RES TECHNOLOGICAL IN, V4, P25 ADLER PS, 1990, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V30, P25 AGUILAR FJ, 1967, SCANNING BUSINESS EN ASHBY MF, 1992, MAT SELECTION MECH D, P2 ASHTON WB, 1995, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V10, P79 AYRES RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA BAUGHMAN JP, 1974, ENV ANAL MANAGEMENT BERRY MMJ, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P341 BOULTON WR, 1995, BUSINESS CONT WORLD, V7, P104 BOUTLON WR, 1993, RESOURCE GUIDE MANAG BRIGHT JR, 1963, HARVARD BUS REV, V41, P76 BRIGHT JR, 1972, INTRO TECHNOLOGY FOR BYARS LL, 1984, MANAGERIAL PLANNING, V32, P38 CALORI R, 1989, LONG RANGE PLANN, V22, P69 DAVIDSON WH, 1991, ORGAN DYN, V10, P5 DEWET G, 1996, P 5 INT C MAN TECHN, P510 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 EDGE G, 1995, R&D MANAGE, V25, P117 ENGLEDOW JL, 1985, LONG RANGE PLANN, V18, P93 FARRELL CJ, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P161 FORD D, 1988, LONG RANGE PLANN, V21, P85 FOSTER R, 1986, ATTACKERS ADV FROHMAN AH, 1981, LONG RANGE PLANN, V14, P58 GALLON MR, 1995, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V38, P20 GRAUBAR SR, 1980, DAEDALUS, V109, R5 HAMEL G, 1994, COMPETING FUTURE HAUPTMAN O, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P193 HIGGS ES, 1990, TECHNOL SOC, V12, P479 HORNER DS, 1992, J INFORM SCI, V18, P57 JAPP SG, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P175 JOB J, 1995, 5 IND FOR TECHN MAN, P46 KANZ J, 1995, BUSINESS CONT WORLD, V7, P79 KASTENS M, 1976, LONG RANGE PLANNING KENWARD M, 1995, DIRECTOR, V49, P72 LEARNED EP, 1965, BUSINESS POLICY TEXT LINSTONE HA, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P1 MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION, P18 MAISSEU AP, 1995, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V10, P79 MARTIN MJC, 1984, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC MARTINO JP, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MCCARTHY DJ, 1981, 1987 BUSINESS POLICY, P153 MCCARTHY DM, 1981, 1987 BUSINESS POLICY, P190 MINTZBERG H, 1996, STRATEGY PROCESS CON, P54 OHMAE K, 1982, MIND STRATEGIST OLESEN DE, 1995, FUTURIST, V29, P9 PEARCE JA, 1982, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V23, P15 PETERSON P, 1995, 5 IND FOR TECHN MAN, P71 PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V168, P79 QUINN JJ, 1985, LONG RANGE PLANN, V18, P69 ROBERTS EB, 1985, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V26, P3 ROPOHL G, SYSTEMTHEORIE TECHNI, P78 ROUSSEL PA, 1991, 3 GENERATION R D, P64 SAHAL D, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P61 SELTZER RJ, 1991, CHEM ENG NEWS, V69, P19 SHURIG R, 1984, LONG RANGE PLANN, V17, P129 STEYN HD, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V46, P11 TANG HK, 1995, MODELING KNOWLEDGE I THOMPSON AA, 1995, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P78 TROUT J, 1996, NEW POSITIONING TWISS B, 1992, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC VANWYK RJ, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15, P281 VANWYK RJ, 1984, TECHNOVATION, V2, P100 VANWYK RJ, 1988, TECHNOVATION, V7, P341 VANWYK RJ, 1991, 9183 U CAP TOWN SCH VANWYK RJ, 1991, FUTURES RES Q, V7, P73 VANWYK RJ, 1991, R D MANAGE, V21, P301 VANWYR RJ, 1996, HDB TECHNOLOGY MANAG WOLFF MF, 1990, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V33, P10 NR 76 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 55 IS 1 BP 21 EP 38 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WV407 UT ISI:A1997WV40700003 ER PT J AU Werthamer, NR Raymond, SU TI Technology and finance: The electronic markets SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Change is afoot in the land of global finance, driven in large part by rapid technological advances. The convergence of computers, telecommunications that link computers and related devices, and applications software has enabled the birth of a whole new financial products and services. Finance is now a 24-hour-a-day, seven-day-a-week, nearly instantaneous marketplace. The advantages are seen in lower unit costs, broader financial access, and more rapid transaction times. Disadvantages also abound. The investment costs of keeping technologically up to date are huge. As a result, the number of bank mergers is increasing, and the financial industry job market is contracting. Rapid, often virtual markets have created regulatory headaches around the globe. Both commercial financial institutions and government central banks find it harder and harder to manage the pace of technological and market change. The implications for social change are many. For individual firms and for industry in general, the opportunities and tensions attributable to this change are beginning to be well defined. But, there is no clear indication of how Ear or how fast change will affect society overall. The capacity of society to absorb major changes in monetary mechanisms may, in fact, act as a brake on the uptake of technological change. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 NEW YORK ACAD SCI,POLICY PROGRAMS,NEW YORK,NY 10021. CR 1995, ECONOMIST 1007, P1 *STAFF STAT NY OFF, 1995, REC TRENDS NY CIT EC, P22 BOYD JH, 1994, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, P2 EDWARDS FR, 1995, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, P27 HOLLAND K, 1995, BUS WK 0612, P66 KNUDSON SE, 1994, FEDERAL RESERVE B, P269 LENZER R, 1995, FORBES 0410, P72 LUNT P, 1995, ABA BANKING J NOV, P46 MCANDREWS J, 1994, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, P15 MENDONCO L, 1996, MCKINSEY Q, P136 WHALING C, 1996, INNOVATION US RETAIL NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 55 IS 1 BP 39 EP 53 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WV407 UT ISI:A1997WV40700004 ER PT J AU White, KP White, DJ TI Multiple-objective methods in regulatory decision making: A conceptual framework applied to US automobile safety standards SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Public policy making is a complex matter. Policy makers are charged with balancing a broad spectrum of competing objectives, reflecting in varying degrees the interests and aspirations of a diverse range of constituencies and stakeholders. Policy decisions have differential impacts on differing constituencies and the contributions of these impacts to objectives are frequently uncertain, difficult to quantify, and hotly disputed. Formal methods of decision analysis have been advanced as aids for coping with complexity and have been applied to some public policy issues, most notably the management of water resources. While formal methods have the apparent benefit of rationalizing the policy process and improving the efficacy and equity of policy decisions, serious questions remain concerning the acceptability and ultimate usefulness of formal analyses in the public arena. In this article we examine these questions in the context of policy making relating to government regulation of automobile designs for safety. We consider what would be involved in attempting to use a relatively modern, multiple-objective approach in this context. The key questions are how and, more importantly, why multiple-objective methods might be used. The article begins with an illustrative case study, describes the current policy-making process, identifies the parties involved in and affected by this process, elicits key objectives, looks briefly at some scalar-objective approaches, and then outlines a multiple-objective approach. The framework developed arguably is useful in assisting policy making, at least at a qualitative level. Issues which impede a more quantitative resolution of this framework are discussed. This article is intended as a pilot study which may promote research toward the achievement of a useable multiple-objective procedure applicable in the public domain. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP White, KP, UNIV VIRGINIA,DEPT SYST ENGN,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22903. CR BRILL ED, 1979, MANAGE SCI, V25, P413 BUNN W, 1978, FORMAL METHODS POLIC, P1 BYERS P, 1978, FORMAL METHODS POLIC, P100 COCHRANE JL, 1973, MULTIPLE CRITERIA DE DEASON JP, 1984, WATER RESOUR RES, V20, P189 DIGGES KH, 1983, CONSEQUENCES BIOMECH DYER JS, 1972, MANAGE SCI, V19, P357 HAIMES YY, 1987, STUDIES REPORTS HYDR, V44 KEENEY RL, 1976, DECISIONS MULTIPLE O KWANG CL, 1979, MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE D MALLIARIS AC, 1982, 820242 SAE NORTH DW, 1978, FORMAL METHODS POLIC, P198 PILKEY WD, 1983, DOTRSPADMA50839 US D REED D, 1988, AUTOMOT ENG, V96, P20 RHOADS SW, 1978, PUBLIC INTEREST, V19, P74 WHITE DJ, 1980, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V41, P517 WHITE DJ, 1983, ESSAYS SURVEYS MULTI, P406 WHITE DJ, 1983, MULTIOBJECTIVE DECIS, P99 WHITE DJ, 1990, J OPER RES SOC, V41, P669 WHITE KP, 1983, LARGE SCALE SYST, V4, P245 WHITE KP, 1986, 1986 P SAE WHITE KP, 1987, ANN OPER RES, V8, P351 WILLIAMS A, 1978, FORMAL METHODS POLIC, P7 NR 23 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 55 IS 1 BP 55 EP 82 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WV407 UT ISI:A1997WV40700005 ER PT J AU Narain, R Yadav, RC TI Impact of computerized automation on Indian manufacturing industries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article is based on the survey of a group of Indian manufacturing industries using computerized automation (CA). Areas covered include: the reasons for using CA, benefits achieved from it, planning and investment criteria, experience gained by the organizations, etc. The findings of the survey point toward the increasing use of CA among Indian manufacturing firms and that the large scale use of such technologies is imperative to help change the face of Indian firms that have now been thrown open to the winds of international competition. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 BUNDELKPAND INST ENGN & TECHNOL,JHANSI,UTTAR PRADESH,INDIA. RP Narain, R, MOTILAL NEHRU REG ENGN COLL,DEPT MECH ENGN,ALLAHABAD 211004,UTTAR PRADESH,INDIA. CR 1991, TIFACTMS022 DEP SCI, P2 1992, INDIAN MACHINE TOOL, V9, P2 1992, INDIAN MACHINIST FLE, V4, P139 1993, CMTI METAL WORKING B, V17, P1 1993, INDIAN IND SOURCES, V8, P13 ABHYANKAR SL, 1993, ENG ADV, V5, P32 ASHBURN A, 1993, AM MACHINIST, V137, P33 AYRES RU, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V1, P1 EBEL KH, 1992, MANAGEMENT JOBS EMPL, V4, P93 GROOVER MP, 1980, AUTOMATION PRODUCTIO JAIKUMAR R, 1986, HARVARD BUS REV, V64, P69 JONES MS, 1992, J MANUFACTURING REV, V5, P98 LEFLEY F, 1994, INT J PROD RES, V32, P2751 LIMAYE SB, 1993, ENG ADV, V5, P71 MANELY BW, 1993, INDIAN MACHINIST FLE, V5, P18 MCGILBON P, 1992, CUTTING TOOL ENG, V44, P20 MULLA DS, 1992, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, P33 NAIDU MR, 1987, I ENG INDIA B, V36, P12 NAIR NK, 1992, J PRODUCTIVITY, V33, P114 NARAIN R, 1989, P 4 INT C CAD CAM RO, V3, P811 NARAIN R, 1995, P 13 INT C PROD RES POWLEY C, 1992, MACHINERY PRODUCTION, V150, P46 SUNDARAM IS, 1992, FACTS YOU, V14, P17 TANI A, 1992, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V3, P85 NR 24 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 55 IS 1 BP 83 EP 98 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WV407 UT ISI:A1997WV40700006 ER PT J AU Herdman, RC Jensen, JE TI The OTA story: The agency perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) was established by statute in 1972. This action built on a long history in this country of interest in examining the wider societal implications of science and technology. More specifically, it followed a decade of work by (what are now called) the Science Committee of the House of Representatives and the Labor and Human Resources Committee of the Senate with the help of the private academic and industrial sectors, in particular the National Academy of Sciences. During the ensuing 23 years, under the guidance of an equally bipartisan congressional Board, OTA evolved a structure and a process which provided analysis, information, and options to Congress and a reputation for nonpartisan, accurate and complete reporting. Importantly, OTA also provided, through the intense use as advisers of experts and stakeholders from the nongovernmental sector, an open interface between many American communities and Congress. The description of the justification, history, structure, and procedures of OTA affords a perspective on the abrupt abolishment of the agency in the first session of the 104th Congress. A number of explanatory factors rather than a single one were likely responsible for OTA's elimination and are noted. The implications of abolishing OTA are also discussed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Herdman, RC, NATL ACAD SCI,INST MED,2101 CONSTITUT AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20418. CR *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1975, ANN REP C MAR 15 *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1977, OTAX42 *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1978, OTAH75 *US C, 1937, TECHN TRENDS NAT POL *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, POL AN OTA STAFF ASS *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1994, REP DIR OTA TASK FOR BEHNEY CJ, 1995, UNPUB XOTA DIRECTORY CARSON R, 1962, SILENT SPRING COATES VT, 1982, UNPUB OTA HDB CRANE A, 1985, UNPUB LECT NOTES 6 D GRIFFITH ES, 1976, 4 AGENCY COMP STUDY GUDE G, 1982, C RES SERVICE OVERSI MOSHER CA, 1975, US C OFF TECHN ASS A NADER R, 1965, UNSAFE ANY SPEED SCHALLER RE, 956 G MAS U I PUBL P TEAGUE OE, 1975, US C OFFICE TECHNOLO TEAGUE OE, 1976, US C OFFICE TECHNOLO NR 17 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 131 EP 143 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500002 ER PT J AU Wood, FB TI Lessons in technology assessment - Methodology and management at OTA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID OFFICE AB The demise of the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) was precipitated by larger political forces that in the end, despite a close fight, OTA was unable to withstand. In its time, OTA was the institutional leader in the technology assessment (TA) field. OTA defined and refined a widely respected assessment process that produced hundreds of critically acclaimed reports. OTA studies contributed to congressional deliberations and public debate on a wide range of topics. OTA's legacy also includes some important lessons in technology assessment methodology and management, with implications for reinventing technology assessment far legislative bodies such as the U.S. Congress. The lessons learned are likely to be key to the future of a next generation OTA or the equivalent, and to other OTA-like organizations, whether in the public or private sector. Compared to the old OTA, a reinvented TA organization would have a more flexible product line and study process that can more closely match a variety of congressional needs, while at the same time retaining the OTA hallmarks of balance, objectivity, and broad participation. Methodological improvements are needed and can be implemented quickly, drawing on the OTA lessons and other TA activities in the United States and overseas. The imperative for OTA-like functions continues, given the ever more pervasive role of science and technology in society. As embodied in the Technology Assessment Act, the concept of TA is a noble one. The OTA experience in TA methodology and management should help technology assessors at home and abroad keep the dream alive. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. CR *OFF TECHN ASS US, 1977, TECHN ASS BUS GOV *OFF TECHN ASS US, 1977, UNPUB OTA PROC PROGR *OFF TECHN ASS US, 1993, POL AN OTA STAFF ASS *OFF TECHN ASS US, 1994, PUBL STYL PROC *OFF TECHN ASS US, 1994, UNPUB TASK FORC LONG *OFF TECHN ASS US, 1996, ANN REP C FISC YEAR *OFF TECHN ASS, 1979, REP TASK FORC FIND R ARMSTRONG JE, 1977, STRATEGIES CONDUCTIN BRESLOW M, 1972, SURVEY TECHNOLOGY AS CETRON MJ, 1973, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN COATES J, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P139 COATES J, 1979, WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY COATES VT, 1978, HDB TECHNOLOGY ASSES COATES VT, 1982, OTA HDB TECHNOLOGY A GIBBONS JH, 1984, BRIDGE SUM, P2 GIBBONS JH, 1985, UNPUB TECHNOLOGY ASS HETMAN F, 1973, SOC ASSESSMENT TECHN HILL CT, 1996, P 1996 INT S TECHN S, P4 JONES MV, 1971, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN KUNKLE GC, 1995, TECHNOL SOC, V17, P175 MARGOLIS RM, 1996, P 1996 I S TECHN SOC, P36 MAYO LH, 1969, PROGRAM POLICY STUDI MAYO LH, 1971, SOME IMPLICATIONS TE MAYO LH, 1972, SOCIAL IMPACT EVALUA MAYO LH, 1975, PROGRAM POLICY STUDI SCLOVE RE, 1995, DEMOCRACY TECHNOLOGY SCLOVE RE, 1996, TECHNOL REV, V99, P24 SMITS R, 1995, POLICY SCI, V28, P271 WOOD FB, 1982, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V22, P211 NR 29 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 145 EP 162 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500003 ER PT J AU Bereano, PL TI Reflections of a participant-observer the technocratic/democratic contradiction in the practice of technology assessment SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The concept of technology assessment arose in the United States in the early 1970s in conjunction with other social movements of the era that promoted increased democracy and the application of a wider set of values to public decision making. However, citizen participation in the policy process concerning new technologies has been resisted by some government institutions. The actual practice at the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) did not demonstrate very much involvement by citizen organizations; corporate and technocratic interests appeared to be dominant. Indeed, some critics have suggested that technology assessment is purposefully conducted in a fashion that Serves to pacify citizen concerns. A case study shows OTA officials deflecting public interest input (although this may have been an aberrant situation). (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Bereano, PL, UNIV WASHINGTON,DEPT TECH COMMUN,14 LOEW,BOX 352195,SEATTLE,WA 98195. CR *NAT AC ENG, 1969, STUD TECHN ASS REP C, P4 *NAT AC SCI, 1969, TECHN PROC ASS CHOIC, P39 *NIH, 1978, RECOMBINANT DNA RES, V4, P314 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1981, OTAHR132 BEREANO PL, 1973, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN, V1, P179 BEREANO PL, 1976, TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL PO BEREANO PL, 1984, SCI PEOPLE NOV, P20 BEREANO PL, 1984, SCI TECHNOL, V9, P16 CHALK RA, 1974, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P1 COATES, 1996, INTERNET COMMUNI JAN DICKSON D, 1984, NEW POLITICS SCI, P231 FOLK H, 1972, TECHNOLOGY MANS FUTU, P250 FOSS S, 1995, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION KENNARD B, 1978, J INT SOC TECHNOLOGY, V46, P43 MCDERMOTT J, 1976, TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL PO, P89 ROSEWICZ B, 1995, WALL ST J 0929, A16 SCLOVE RE, 1996, TECHNOL REV, V99, P24 TRIBE LH, 1972, PHILOS PUBLIC AFF, V2, P66 VIG N, 1995, COMMUNICATION 0605 WHITE RA, 1995, SEATTLE POST INT OCT, A15 WYNNE B, 1975, RES POLICY, V4, P108 NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 163 EP 175 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500004 ER PT J AU Whiteman, D TI Congress and policy analysis - A context for assessing the use of OTA projects SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INFORMATION; COMMITTEES; KNOWLEDGE; POLITICS AB Recent congressional action to abolish the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) reinforces the reputation of Congress as an institution where policy analysis is not particularly valued. The purpose of this article is to clarify the impact that the OTA had on congressional decision making by examining its contributions relative to other sources of policy analysis. Ninety-two congressional enterprises were studied as they searched for information on one of four specific issues over the course of the 99th Congress. Findings are based on 318 semistructured interviews, results from two written questionnaires, and participant observation. Results indicate a more extensive awareness and use of policy analysis than found in most previous studies. Congressional support agencies are important sources of policy analysis for congressional staff, and, among the support agencies, analysis from the OTA occupied a very significant place within the information networks of the issues it studied. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Whiteman, D, UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT GOVT & INT STUDIES,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. CR BEYER JM, 1982, ADM SCI Q, V27, P591 BIMBER B, 1996, POLITICS EXPERTISE C BLENDON R, 1984, 1 NAT M ASS HLTH SER BOECKMANN M, 1976, POLICY SCI, V7, P53 BROWNE WP, 1993, AM J POLIT SCI, V37, P1054 DREYFUS D, 1977, USING SOCIAL RES PUB, P100 DUNN WN, 1983, KNOWLEDGE, V5, P120 ERLANDSON D, 1993, NATURALISTIC INQUIRY FENNO RF, 1986, AM POLIT SCI REV, V80, P3 FOX H, 1977, C STAFF INVISIBLE FO, P12 HASKINS R, 1991, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V10, P616 HECLO H, 1978, NEW AM POLITICAL SYS, P87 KINGDON JW, 1981, CONGRESSMENS VOTING LARSEN JK, 1981, KNOWLEDGE CYCLE, P149 MAISEL LS, 1981, HOUSE WORK, P247 PATTON MQ, 1977, USING SOCIAL RES PUB, P141 RICH R, 1979, AM BEHAV SCI, V22, P393 RICH RF, 1991, KNOWLEDGE, V12, P319 SABATIER P, 1978, ADM SCI Q, V23, P396 SABATIER P, 1988, POLICY SCI, V21, P123 SALISBURY RH, 1981, LEGISLATIVE STUDIES, V6, P559 SCHICK A, 1976, POLICY ANAL, P215 SCHICK A, 1991, KNOWLEDGE POWER C SUNDQUIST J, 1981, DECLINE RESURGENCE C, P407 THURBER J, 1981, HOUSE WORK, P292 WEISS CH, 1979, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V39, P426 WEISS CH, 1989, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V8, P411 WHITEMAN D, 1985, KNOWLEDGE, V6, P203 WHITEMAN D, 1985, WESTERN POLIT QUART, V38, P294 WHITEMAN D, 1996, COMMUNICATION C MEMB ZWIER R, 1979, LEGISLATIVE STUDIES, V4, P31 NR 31 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 177 EP 189 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500005 ER PT J AU Hill, CT TI The congressional office of technology assessment - A retrospective and prospects for the post-OTA world SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) was established to serve the United States Congress. In return, Congress contributed uniquely to the technology assessment process as it was implemented by OTA. It will be enormously challenging to establish the conditions provided by congressional stewardship that enabled OTA's uneasy but effective marriage of expert advice and democratic participation. These congressional contributions are analyzed and their implications for several alternative approaches to technology assessment institutions are examined. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Hill, CT, GEORGE MASON UNIV,INST PUBL POLICY,DOCTORAL PROGRAM PUBL POLICY,MAIL STOP 3C6,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. NR 0 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 191 EP 198 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500006 ER PT J AU LaPorte, TM TI New opportunities for technology assessment in the post-OTA world SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB With the abolition of the Office of Technology Assessment in 1995 by the 104th Congress, there is a real need for innovation and a recommitment to technology assessment processes in the United States. There are at least a half-dozen possibilities for reconstituting technology assessment that might be pursued, ranging from foundation-supported non-profit organizations to private consultancies, and a variety of government-supported entities. The best among these may be essentially European models-low-profile expert-oriented technology assessments such as are done in the United Kingdom, and consensus conferences such as are used in Denmark. However, re-establishing the practice of technology assessment, whether in a revived OTA or in a new conception of the function, will be difficult. The climate for analysis has changed. Institutional interests in Congress, always on the watch for erosion in their authority, may find it hard to reconstitute the function inside Congress, or to cause the creation of any meaningful outside organization. Private efforts may conont insurmountable obstacles. New methods may not work in the U.S. context. A dialogue among legislares, the public, and the policy analysis community about the utility of technology assessment is essential. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP LaPorte, TM, DELFT UNIV TECHNOL,SCH SYST ENGN & POLICY ANAL,FAC SYST ENGN & POLICY ANAL,POB 5015,NL-2600 GA DELFT,NETHERLANDS. CR 1995, ECONOMIST 0812, P65 *NIH CONS DEV PAN, 1995, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V273, P497 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, POL AN OTA STAFF ASS *STAFF, 1995, SCI GOVT REP, P5 BAUER RA, 1968, STUDY POLICY FORMATI BREWER GD, 1973, POLITICIANS BUREAUCR BREWER GD, 1974, IMPROVING QUALITY UR BREWER GD, 1983, F POLICY ANAL COATES VT, 1982, OTA HDB GUSTON DH, 1995, TRUTH POWER, V1, P2 HILL CT, 1996, P 1996 IEEE INT S IN HORGAN J, 1996, END SCI JACOBY M, 1995, ROLL CALL 0529, P11 KAISER J, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P1864 KUNCKLE GC, 1995, TECHNOL SOC, V17, P175 LINDBLOM CE, 1990, INQUIRY CHANGE TROUB, P271 LIPSKY M, 1977, COMMISSION POLITICS MACK C, 1995, WASHINGTON POST 0827, C8 SCHWARTZ J, 1995, WASHINGTON POST 0527, A9 SCLOVE RE, 1995, DEMOCRACY TECHNOLOGY, P225 SHARKANSKY I, 1970, POLICY ANAL POLITICA WALKER R, 1996, 1996 INT S TECHN SOC WEISS R, 1996, WASHINGTON POST 0630, A6 WOOD FB, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P215 NR 24 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 199 EP 214 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500007 ER PT J AU Norton, M TI The UK parliamentary office of science and technology and its interaction with the OTA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The formation of the US Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) reflected a more widespread need among national legislatures to find new ways of allowing informed debate and decision on the complex issues which society needs to address involving science and technology. The initial case for setting up the UK's Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST) was very much inspired by OTA's experience, and POST's founders drew heavily on the OTA model to develop and then implement their proposals. This article reviews the history of POST and how it was influenced by the OTA, describing and explaining the reasons for taking similar or different approaches to that of OTA. Primary differences are in the definition of the ''customer,'' which in POST's case is not just committees but also the wider general interest of Parliament membership. POST also has a more flexible remit than OTA, and thus can respond swiftly to issues on the parliamentary agenda. It is suggested that this flexibility and attention to developing a broad customer base may have been an important factor in POST's re-authorization during 1995 at the same Lime as OTA was being shut down by its parent Congress. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Norton, M, PARLIAMENTARY OFF SCI & TECHNOL,7 MILLBANK,LONDON SW1 3JA,ENGLAND. CR *NOTA TECHN ASS, 1987, OPP EUR *POST, 1989, UNPUB MIN POST BOARD *POST, 1991, 21 POST *POST, 1993, DEAL DROUGHT ENV TEC *POST, 1993, DRINK WAT QUAL BAL S *POST, 1994, UK TECHN FOR *POST, 1995, INF SUP GIBBONS JH, 1988, TECHNOL SOC, V7, P333 NORTON MG, 1989, UNPUB PAPER POST BOA NORTON MG, 1992, SCI TECHNOLOGY POLIC, V5, P9 SCHOT JW, 1992, SCI TECHNOL, V17, P36 VIG N, 1992, ANN M AM POL SCI ASS WALTERS R, 1992, GOV OPPOS, V27, P89 WOOD FB, 1982, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V22, P211 NR 14 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 215 EP 231 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500008 ER PT J AU Guston, DH Jones, M Branscomb, LM TI Technology assessment in the US state legislatures SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB With the demise of the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and reassertion of slate roles in R&D, the future of legislative technology assessment in the United States may indeed reside in the states. This article reviews the history of science and technology advice to state legislatures and, based on a survey of 50 states and field work including 185 interviews in 11 states, describes the status of the provision of technical information and analysis to state legislatures by Legislative staff, committees, and inter-branch and inter-sectoral organizations. The article argues that these sources perform a thin form of technology assessment for state legislatures. It concludes by recommending ways in which state legislatures might enhance their performance by adopting a more self-conscious attitude toward their technology assessment role, by expanding participation, and looking to European technology assessment organizations as models. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 WOODS HOLE OCEANOG INST,WOODS HOLE,MA 02543. HARVARD UNIV,KENNEDY SCH GOVT,CTR SCI & INT AFFAIRS,SCI TECHNOL & PUBL POLICY PROGRAM,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Guston, DH, RUTGERS STATE UNIV,DEPT PUBL POLICY,BLOUSTEIN SCH PLANNING & PUBL POLICY,33 LIVINGSTON AVE,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08901. CR *CARN COMM SCI TEC, 1992, SCI TECHN STAT AM 3 *CIT C STAT LEG, 1971, SOM GOV CRIT STUD 50 *COUNC STAT GOV, 1993, BOOK STAT *NAT AC SCI TECHN, 1969, PROC ASS CHOIC *STAFF, 1993, STAT LEG SCI TECHN W *US C, 1980, ENDL FRONT HIST COMM BEYLE T, 1993, STATE GOVT BIMBER B, 1996, POLITICS EXPERTISE C BLANPIED WA, 1995, IMPACTS EARLY COLD W BOWMAN A, 1986, RESURGENCE STATES COATES VT, 1982, POLITICS TECHNOLOGY COBURN C, 1995, PARTNERSHIPS COMPEND FELLER I, 1979, AM BEHAV SCI, V22, P417 FELLER I, 1981, SCI TECHNOLOGY ORG S, P3 FELLER I, 1990, RII8506018, P41 GIERYN TF, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S GOLLUB JO, 1979, INCREASING CAPACITY, R5 GUSTON DH, UNPUB POLICY STUDIES GUSTON DH, 1996, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V12, P61 HELMINSKI EL, M CHALL SCI TECHN ST IVY RL, 1981, STATE SCI ENG TECHNO JASANOFF S, 1990, 5 BRANCH SCI ADVISOR, P250 JONES M, 1996, INFORMED LEGISLATURE JONES R, 1980, DESCRIPTIONS STATE S KILLIAN JR, 1982, SPUTNIK SCI EISENHOW KUNDELL JE, 1986, WATER RESOURCES B, V22, P785 LAIRD FN, 1993, SCI TECHNOL, V18, P341 PRICE DK, 1954, GOVT SCI THEIR DYNAN, P67 REENSTRABRYANT R, 1981, THESIS MIT CAMBRIDGE REUSS JW, 1978, STATE LEGISLATURES R ROBINSON JA, 1973, STATE LEGISLATIVE IN, R6 ROSENTHAL A, 1981, LEGISLATIVE LIFE PEO ROSENTHAL A, 1990, GOVERNORS LEGISLATUR, P1 SACARTO DM, 1984, SCI TECHNOLOGY LEGIS SAPOLSKY HM, 1981, SCI TECHNOLOGY NATL SMITH BLR, 1992, ADVISORS SCI POLICY ZELLER B, 1969, AM STAT LEGISLATURES NR 37 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 233 EP 250 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500009 ER PT J AU Schot, J Rip, A TI The past and future of constructive technology assessment SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Constructive technology assessment (CTA) is a member of the family of technology assessment approaches, developed in particular in the Netherlands and Denmark. CTA shifts the focus away from assessing impacts of new technologies to broadening design, development, and implementation processes. Explicit CTA has concentrated on dialogue among and early interaction with new actors. The idea has been taken up by actors other than governments (consumers, producers). CTA implies a modulation of ongoing technological developments, and an understanding of the dynamics of such modulation is used to identify and briefly discuss three generic strategies for CTA: technology forcing, strategic niche management, and loci for alignment. Modulation activities are to be located in the broader issue of how our societies handle new technology at all. The established division of labor between promotion and control should be mitigated by sociotechnical criticism. This underlines the need for reflection on role and value profile of CTA agents. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV TWENTE,CTR STUDIES SCI TECHNOL & SOC,DEPT PHILOSOPHY SCI & TECHNOL,NL-7500 AE ENSCHEDE,NETHERLANDS. CR *CARN COMM, 1992, EN FUT LINK SCI TECH *MIN EC ZAK, 1991, TECHN SAM *MIN EC ZAK, 1995, KENN BEW *MIN OND WET, 1983, INT WET TECHN SAM BE *NATO, 1994, TECHN ASS ADJ CHANN *OECD, 1988, NEW TECHN 1990S SOC *RATH I, 1991, RATH I DEB ANN REP 1 *RATH I, 1996, TECHN ASP TOTO MAATS AKRICH M, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P167 ANDERSEN IE, 1995, FEASIBILITY STUDY NE BIJKER WE, 1992, SHAPING TECHNOLOGY B BRANSCOMB LM, 1993, EMPOWERING TECHNOLOG CRONBERG T, 1991, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN DENHOND F, 1993, ENV STRATEGIES IND I DEUTEN J, 1996, INT C R D MAN U TWEN DIELEMAN H, 1993, ENV STRATEGIES IND I FONK GJ, 1994, CONSTRUCTIEVE ROL CO FONK GJ, 1996, TOEKOMSTBEELDEN CONS GRIN J, 1996, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V21, P72 HERBOLD R, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P185 HETLAND P, 1994, EXPLORING HYBRID COM HOBSBAWM EJ, 1964, LABOURING MEN HOOGMA R, 1996, 4SEASST C BIEL 10 13 JELSMA J, 1995, BIOTECHNOLOGIE BEDRI MINTZBERG H, 1994, RISE FALL STRATEGIC OUWENS D, 1987, CONSTRUCTIEF TECHNOL RANDALL A, 1991, LUDDITES CUSTOM COMM REMMEN A, 1991, DANISH EXPT SOCIAL C REMMEN A, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P199 RIP A, 1986, IMPACT ASSESSMENT TO, P415 RIP A, 1987, CONSTRUCTIEF TECHNOL RIP A, 1992, RISESST, P39 RIP A, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY RIP A, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P417 RIP A, 1996, UNPUB THEORY SOCIOTE, P85 RIP A, 1997, IN PRESS COORDINATIN SALE K, 1996, REBELS FUTURE LUDDIT SCHOT J, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P1060 SCHOT JW, 1991, THESIS U TWENTE ENSC SCHOT JW, 1992, SCI TECHNOL, V17, P36 SCHOT JW, 1996, KENNIS METHODE, V3, P265 SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED WE STAND RED SMITS R, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN SMITS R, 1995, POLICY SCI, V28, P271 SOETE L, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P36 STAUDENMAIER JM, 1989, CONTEXT HIST HIST TE, P150 THOMPSON EP, 1963, MAKING ENGLISH WORKI VANDENBELT H, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION VERGRAGT P, 1995, 4 GREEN IND NETW C WHITE LJ, 1982, POLICY STUD J, V11, P77 WHITE LJ, 1982, REGULATION AIR POLLU WHITEMAN D, 1982, POLITICS TECHNOLOGY, P51 WYNNE B, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P19 NR 53 TC 14 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 251 EP 268 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500010 ER PT J AU vanEijndhoven, JCM TI Technology assessment: Product or process? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Technology assessment was originally conceived of as an analytic activity, aimed at providing decision makers with an objective analysis of effects of a technology. Early in the history of technology assessment, it became clear that assessment projects must involve multiple perspectives. In the United States, this led to stakeholder involvement in the analysis. In a number of European countries, however, forms of technology assessment developed in which the analytic product became of relatively minor importance compared to the interactive process: consensus conferences and constructive technology assessment developed as alternative forms. This article discusses four paradigms of technology assessment: the classical paradigm; the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) paradigm; public technology assessment; and constructive technology assessment. It concludes that the multiple views of technology assessment and its position between academia and politics lead to dilemmas for technology assessment organizations, especially after the demise of OTA. It stresses the importance of experimenting with various ways of conducting technology assessments and of addressing quality control. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV UTRECHT,DEPT SCI TECHNOL & SOC,NL-3508 TC UTRECHT,NETHERLANDS. RP vanEijndhoven, JCM, RATHENAU INST,POB 85525,NL-2508 CE THE HAGUE,NETHERLANDS. CR *COMM EV NED ORG T, 1992, EV NED ORG TECHN ASP *EUR PARL STOA PRO, 1990, 2 EUR C TECHN ASS MA, P4 *TECHN BOARD DAN F, 1990, EUR PARL TECHN ASS E, P24 *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1990, OTACIT407 US C BECHMAN G, 1993, SCI PUBL POLICY, V20, P11 CLARK WC, 1985, SCI TECHNOL, V10, P6 COATES J, 1987, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN, P31 COATES VT, 1975, READINGS TA COENEN R, 1991, 591 TAB COLLINGRIDGE D, 1980, SOCIAL CONTROL TECHN HANSEN L, 1995, TA DATENBANK NACHRIC, V4, P17 HENNEN L, 1995, TA DATENBANK NACHRIC, V3, P75 JAEGER D, 1990, 2 EUR C TECHN ASS MA, P36 KAMER T, INTEGRATIVE WETENSCH PETERMANN T, 1993, TA DATENBANK NACHRIC, V2, P16 PROCTER M, 1987, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN, P111 RIP A, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY, P16 SCHOT J, 1991, 45 NOTA SCHOT J, 1991, SCI TECHNOL, V17, P36 SCHOT J, 1996, KENNIS METHODE, V20, P265 SCHWARTZ M, 1990, DIVIDED WE STAND RED SMITS R, 1990, 2 EUR C TECHN ASS MA SMITS R, 1991, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN, P264 SMITS REH, 1987, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN, P30 VIG NJ, 1992, IMPACT ASSESSMENT B, V10, P3 VIG NJ, 1992, SCI TECHNOLOGY POLIT WESTERMEYER W, 1994, 164968 PE EUR PARL, P1 NR 27 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB-MAR PY 1997 VL 54 IS 2-3 BP 269 EP 286 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WQ285 UT ISI:A1997WQ28500011 ER PT J AU Foray, D Grubler, A TI Technology and the environment: An overview SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The article starts with a brief history of the debate on the interactions between technology and the environment. A short overview of each article of this special issue is then presented. Three cross-cutting ''metathemes'' emerge from the articles. The first deals with the characteristics of uncertainty, ignorance, and dispersed knowledge that have historically characterized the generation and distribution of environmental and technological knowledge. The second addresses the issue of possible tensions that exist between the forces of technological inertia and the forces of environmentally induced technological change. Finally, some policy dilemmas between short- and long-term environmental preservation and technological change objectives are discussed. C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM COMPATIBLE ENERGY STRATEGIES PROJECT,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. UNIV PARIS 09,NATL CTR SCI RES,CNRS,F-75775 PARIS 16,FRANCE. CR *LIB ENV, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125 ARRENHIUS S, 1896, PHILOS MAGAZINE APR, P237 ARTHUR WB, 1983, WP8390 IIASA ARTHUR WB, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC AUSUBEL JH, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC AUSUBEL JH, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV AUSUBEL JH, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV, P221 BEARDSLEY T, 1995, SCI AM JUL, P19 BROOKS H, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS COLE HSD, 1973, MODELS DOOM CRITIQUE, P244 DAVID PA, 1991, CEPR PUBLICATION, V267 EADS G, 1980, AM ECON REV, V70, P51 FORRESTER JW, 1971, WORLD DYN, P142 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC GILLI PV, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGR, P331 GOELLER HE, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSIT GRAY PE, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV MARTIN JM, 1988, ECON SOCIETES, V4, P9 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH, P207 MEADOWS DH, 1993, LIMITS GLOBAL COLLAP, P300 MONTROLL EW, 1974, INTRO QUANTITATIVE A, P349 NAKICENOVIC N, 1984, THESIS IIASA LAXENBU ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL RUTTAN VW, 1971, AM J AGR ECON, V53, P707 SIMON H, 1973, MANAGEMENT SCI B, V19, P1110 SIMON JL, 1984, RESOURCEFUL EARTH RE, P585 SOETE L, 1993, INTEGRATED APPROACH, CH3 STARR C, 1973, SCIENCE, V182, P358 NR 28 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 3 EP 13 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300002 ER PT J AU Schelling, TC TI Research by accident SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The article addresses the issue of uncertainty in technological knowledge. ''Research by accident'' is seen as a central cognitive process to generate (unanticipated) knowledge about the characteristics of a technology. In the example of nuclear weapons, scientific programs have initially led to a sequency of unanticipated discoveries-a process of research by accident that subsequently reveals properties and characteristics of a technology that were not expected initially. The second part of the article deals with cases in which uncertainty originates not in the absence of knowledge per se, but rather with whether knowledge is available in the right form and the right policy context. The example of energy studies of the 1970s illustrates that uncertainty also includes cases where the problem at hand deals with the efficiency of information distribution rather than information generation. There is a difference between (scientific) information that exists somewhere and scientific information that is known in the right context to the right people (the persons with the capacity to take, or to resist, action) at the right time. RP Schelling, TC, UNIV MARYLAND,SCH PUBL AFFAIRS,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. CR *CED, 1982, EN PRIC PUBL POL *NAT AC SCI, 1983, CLIM CHANG REP CARB BROOKS H, 1995, WP9541 INT I APPL SY COWAN R, 1995, WP9539 INT I APPL SY KEENY SM, 1977, NUCL POWER ISSUES CH LANDSBERG HH, 1979, ENERGY NEXT 20 YEARS NICOLSON H, 1933, PUBLIC FACES SCHELLING TC, 1979, THINKING ENERGY PROB NR 8 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 15 EP 20 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300003 ER PT J AU Brooks, H TI The problem of attention management in innovation for sustainability SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The problem of attention management is described as a major challenge in the transition to environmentally sustainable development paths. The design principle that attention is scarce is very different from a principle of ''more information is better'' when discussing problems of sustainability in technological development. The issue of ''attention management'' is discussed in various contexts, including R&D and innovation management, scientific communities, and technology policy. Given that environmental policies often ''grandfather'' existing technologies, more systemic environmental and technological strategies are called for. These require new models for integration of information from much wider ranges of sources and networks of expertise than is the case for present technological innovations in individual industries and companies. RP Brooks, H, HARVARD UNIV,JOHN F KENNEDY SCH GOVT,CTR SCI & INT AFFAIRS,P-16,79 JOHN F KENNEDY ST,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. CR AYRES RU, 1992, IND METABOLISM RESTR DAVIS B, 1991, GENETIC REVOLUTION S GUILE BR, 1989, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN HAFELE W, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS SOETE L, 1993, INTEGRATED APPROACH STIGLIANI WL, 1993, RR936 INT I APPL SYS THOMPSON M, 1990, POLITICAL CULTURE SE UTTERBACK J, 1989, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN WEED LL, 1995, KNOWLEDGE COUPLING N NR 9 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 21 EP 26 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300004 ER PT J AU Freeman, C TI The greening of technology and models of innovation SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID STRUCTURAL-CHANGE; DEMAND AB The study suggests that the question of whether the world economy can move to a new and sustainable pattern of growth remains open. It is both a question of methods of regulation, economic incentives, and other institutional changes and a question of technological innovations. Although more attention has been paid to incentives and institutions, the potential offered by continuous technological change has been rather neglected. This emerges as a central issue in the ''limits to growth'' debate and its resulting world models. The study argues that, to realize large technoeconomic system transitions, society needs to develop a new model of innovation, combining some features of the much criticized linear model with features of the systemic innovation model. RP Freeman, C, UNIV SUSSEX,SCI POLICY RES UNIT,MANTELL BLDG,BRIGHTON BN1 9RF,E SUSSEX,ENGLAND. CR *OECD, 1992, TECHN EC KEY REL BERNAL JD, 1939, SOCIAL FUNCTION SCI BERNAL JD, 1970, SCI IND 19 CENTURY BLACKETT PMS, 1948, MILITARY POLITICAL C BUSH V, 1946, SCI ENDLESS FRONTIER COLE HSD, 1973, THINKING FUTURE CRIT ETZKOWITZ S, 1994, SCI PUBL POLICY, V21, P79 FLECK J, 1983, INFORMATION TECHNOLO FLECK J, 1988, INNOFUSION DIFFUSATI FREEMAN C, IN PRESS LONG WAVES FREEMAN C, 1974, EC IND INNOVATION FREEMAN C, 1978, WORLD FUTURES FREEMAN C, 1994, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V18, P463 GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC HESSEN B, 1971, SOCIAL EC ROOTS NEWT KATZ BG, 1982, EMERGING TECHNOLOGIE KEMP R, 1992, FUTURES, V24, P437 LANGRISH J, 1972, WEALTH KNOWLEDGE MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS GLOBAL COLLAP MITCHELL C, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V28, P1077 MITCHELL C, 1995, RENEWABLE ENERGY UK MOLINA AH, 1989, 7 PICT RES CTR SOC S MOLINA AH, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P309 MOWERY D, 1979, RES POLICY, V8, P102 MYERS S, 1969, SUCCESSFUL IND INNOV PEARCE DW, 1989, BLUEPRINT GREEN EC PEARCE DW, 1989, EC NATURAL RESOURCES PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P357 PEREZ C, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P441 ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL ROTHWELL R, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P221 SCHERER FM, 1982, J IND ECON, V30, P215 SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SOETE L, 1993, INTEGRATED APPROACH SUTZ J, 1996, WORKSH 3 HEL AMST JA VERSPAGEN B, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P387 WALSH V, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P211 NR 38 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 27 EP 39 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300005 ER PT J AU Ruttan, VW TI Induced innovation and path dependence: A reassessment with respect to agricultural development and the environment SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNICAL CHANGE; INCREASING RETURNS; DEMAND-PULL; LOCK-IN; GROWTH; INVENTION AB The study reviews two models of technical change-induced innovation and path-dependent models of technical change. The study argues that the two models are complementary rather than alternative explanations of the forces that influence the direction of technical change. Although path-dependent properties can give rise to surprising consistency and duration in the direction of technological change, historical development of a technology seldom proceeds indefinitely along an initially selected process array. As technical progress slows down, a shift in relative factor prices can induce an intensified search for technologies along a new direction that is more consistent with contemporary factor prices. This explains why technological inertia can be overcome to induce a path of technological development and infrastructure investments consistent with the rising value of environmental resources. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,HUBERT H HUMPHREY INST PUBL AFFAIRS,ST PAUL,MN 55108. RP Ruttan, VW, UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT APPL ECON,HUBERT H HUMPHREY INST PUBL AFFAIRS,231 CLASSROON OFF BLDG,ST PAUL,MN 55108. CR AHMAD S, 1966, ECON J, V76, P344 AHMAD S, 1967, ECON J, V77, P662 AHMAD S, 1967, ECON J, V77, P960 AMES E, 1968, ECON J, V78, P730 ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 ARTHUR WB, 1987, EUR J OPER RES, V30, P294 ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 ARTHUR WB, 1994, INCREASING RETURNS P BACKUS DK, 1992, J ECON THEORY, V58, P337 BAUMOL WJ, 1986, AM ECON REV, V76, P1072 BAUMOL WJ, 1988, AM ECON REV, V78, P1155 BENHABIB J, 1991, AM ECON REV, V81, P82 BENZION U, 1975, REV ECON STAT, V57, P246 BENZION U, 1978, INDUCED INNOVATION T BINSWANGER HP, 1973, THESIS N CAROLINA ST BINSWANGER HP, 1974, AM ECON REV, V64, P964 BINSWANGER HP, 1974, AM J AGR ECON, V56, P377 BINSWANGER HP, 1978, INDUCED INNOVATION T, P13 BLAUG M, 1963, ECONOMICA, V63, P13 BUCHANAN JM, 1994, RETURN INCREASING RE CHENG Y, 1994, 208 U MINN STRAT MAN CHIPMAN JS, 1970, TECHNOLOGY FACTOR IN, P95 DAVID PA, 1966, IND 2 SYSTEMS ESSAYS, P3 DAVID PA, 1973, 297 HARV I EC RES DAVID PA, 1975, TECHNICAL CHOICE INN DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DAVID PA, 1986, EC HIST MODERN EC DAVID PA, 1988, INFORMATION EC POLIC, V3, P165 DAVID PA, 1993, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA DAVIDSON WH, 1979, KYKLOS, V32, P764 DELONG JB, 1988, AM ECON REV, V78, P1128 DOLLAR D, 1993, COMPETITIVENESS CONV DRANDAKIS EM, 1966, ECON J, V76, P823 ELSTER J, 1983, EXPLAINING TECHNICAL FELLNER W, 1956, TRENDS CYCLES EC ACT FELLNER W, 1961, ECON J, V71, P305 FELLNER W, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN FELLNER W, 1967, ECON J, V77, P664 FOGEL RW, 1967, J ECON HIST, V27, P283 GILFILLAN SC, 1935, SOCIOLOGY INVENTION GRANT W, 1988, GOVT CHEM IND COMP S GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 GROSSMAN GM, 1991, INNOVATION GROWTH GL GROSSMAN GM, 1995, Q J ECON, V110, P353 GROVES T, 1987, INFORMATION INCENTIV GRUBLER A, 1988, METHANE AGE, P13 HABAKKUK HJ, 1962, AM BRIT TECHNOLOGY 1 HAMILTON C, 1981, WORLD EC ORDER PAST, P198 HAYAMI Y, 1970, J POLITICAL EC, V78, P1115 HAYAMI Y, 1971, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HICKS JR, 1963, THEORY WAGES HURWICZ L, 1972, DECISION ORG JAMES JA, 1985, J ECON HIST, V45, P513 JORGENSON DW, 1981, MODELING MEASURING N KENNEDY C, 1964, ECON J, V74, P541 KENNEDY C, 1966, REV ECON STAT, V48, P442 KENNEDY C, 1967, ECON J, V77, P958 LEVIN RC, 1977, SO EC J, V44, P208 LIEBOWITZ SJ, 1990, J LAW ECON, V33, P1 LIEBOWITZ SJ, 1992, MARKET PROCESSES SEL LIEBOWITZ SJ, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P133 LIEBOWITZ SJ, 1995, J LAW ECON ORGAN, V11, P205 LUCAS RE, 1967, REV ECON STUD, V34, P175 LUCAS RE, 1988, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MOWERY DC, 1979, RES POLICY, V8, P103 NELSON RR, 1974, ECON J, V84, P886 NELSON RR, 1975, BELL J ECON, V6, P466 NELSON RR, 1976, Q J ECON, V40, P90 NELSON RR, 1977, AM ECON REV, V67, P271 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NORDHAUS WD, 1969, INVENTION GROWTH WEL NORDHAUS WD, 1973, Q J ECON, V87, P208 ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P570 ROSENBERG N, 1974, ECON J, V82, P225 ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC ROTHSCHILD K, 1956, THEORY WAGES RUTTAN VW, 1971, AM J AGR ECON, V53, P707 RUTTAN VW, 1994, AGR ENV HLTH SUSTAIN RUTTAN VW, 1994, INDUCED INNOVATION T RUTTAN VW, 1995, SOURCES TECHNICAL CO SALTER WEG, 1960, PRODUCTIVITY TECHNIC SAMUELSON PA, 1965, REV ECON STAT, V47, P343 SAMUELSON PA, 1966, REV ECON STAT, V48, P444 SCHERER FM, 1982, J IND ECON, V30, P225 SCHMOOKLER J, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES, V1 SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES, V2 SRINIVASAN TN, 1985, GROWTH THEORIES LIGH STOKES RG, OPTING OIL POLITICAL TEMIN P, 1966, J ECON HIST, V26, P277 THIRTLE CG, 1987, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G VANDEVEN A, 1993, RES TECHNOLOGICAL IN, V5 WALSH V, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P211 WAN HY, 1971, EC GROWTH WRIGHT G, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P651 NR 98 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 41 EP 59 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300006 ER PT J AU Cowan, R Hulten, S TI Escaping lock-in: The case of the electric vehicle SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The study addresses the issue of technological ''lock-in'' and the possibilities of escape from it. Earlier literature on technological lock-in has tended to focus on intraindustry sources of positive feedbacks that are at the core of the technological lock-in phenomena. This study draws attention to the importance of interindustry sources in contributing to technological lock-in. Several possible avenues of escape from lock-in are discussed: crisis in existing technology, regulation, technological breakthroughs, changes in taste, emergence of niche markets, and new scientific results. The study includes a brief history of the competition among automobile technologies. The analysis of the current state of the electric vehicle, its technology, and the surrounding supporting industries and infrastructures is relatively pessimistic about a rapid transition away from the internal combustion engine technological lock-in. However, regulation could create enough niche markets so that some self-reinforcing processes would become possible. In this way, the electric vehicle might emerge as a visible part of the automobile market. C1 STOCKHOLM SCH ECON,S-11383 STOCKHOLM,SWEDEN. RP Cowan, R, UNIV WESTERN ONTARIO,DEPT ECON,LONDON,ON N6A 5C2,CANADA. CR 1993, REV GEN ELECT *NICD EL VEH INF C, NICK CADM BATT BASALLA C, 1988, EVOLUTION TECHNOLOGY CALLON M, 1986, MAPPING DYNAMICS SCI CORDI I, 1994, WHAT IS TODAYS STATU COWAN R, IN PRESS EC J COWAN R, 1990, J ECON HIST, V50, P541 DABELS J, 1992, ENV REQUIREMENTS IMP DAHMEN E, 1970, ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTI, V1 DAHMEN E, 1989, IND DYNAMICS DAHMEN E, 1993, HIGH SPEED TRAINS FA DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 FINK JJ, 1970, AM ADOPTS AUTOMOBILE GREGOIRE JA, 1981, 50 ANS AUTOMOBILE, V2 HARD M, 1993, RULER GAME DEFINING HARTMAN L, 1978, 5 C EN WASH DC FEBR HULTEN S, 1994, ELBILAR TEKNISKA MOJ JAMISON A, 1974, STEAM POERERD AUTOMO KIRSCH DA, 1994, P EUNETIC C EV EC TE LAFFITTE P, 1993, RAPPORT INT VHICULE LIEBOWITZ SJ, 1990, J LAW ECON, V33, P1 NICHOLON A, 1984, VEHICULE ELECT MYTHE OSTLUND S, 1994, BUSINESS STRATEGY 2, V3 PAPANEK V, 1984, DESIGN REAL WORLD HU ROBERTS P, 1963, VETERAN VINTAGE CARS ROLT LTC, 1988, G R STEPHENSON RAILW ROSENBERG N, 1978, BRITANNIA BRIDGE GEN SCHALLENBERG RH, 1982, BOTTLED ENERGY ELECT SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV TOOL MR, 1993, P EAEPE 1993 C BARC WOODRUFF D, 1994, BUSINESS WEEK 0530, P36 NR 32 TC 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 61 EP 79 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300007 ER PT J AU Martin, JM TI Energy technologies: Systemic aspects, technological trajectories, and institutional frameworks SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Technology policies to promote a transition ''away from the carbon atom'' must take into account the systemic nature of technological change in the energy sector. Technological interrelatedness, infrastructure requirements, and lumpiness of energy sector investments result in the need to consider technological change as systemic, i.e., beyond the introduction and diffusion of individual technologies. Consequences of technological advances are ambivalent. On the one hand, technological improvements in existing technologies can slow down the development of new alternatives and radical technological shifts. On the other hand, technological change generates variety within the system of energy supply and end-use technologies, leading to technological pluralism. Thus, technology dynamics are characterized by a complex interplay between irreversibility and diversity. It is on this basis that public technology policy oriented toward sustainable energy development has to be formulated. RP Martin, JM, UNIV GRENOBLE,INST ECON & POLIT ENERGIE,BP 47,F-38040 GRENOBLE 09,FRANCE. CR *IIASA WEC, 1995, GLOV EN PERSP 2050, P106 *MERIT PREST NR, 1994, TECHN TRANS ENV STAB, P267 *OECD, 1968, EC TECHN ENTR PAYS M BARBIER JC, 1995, HTI Q SPR, P57 BASALLA G, 1982, ENERGIE CIVILIZATION, V7, P169 BOURGEOIS B, 1994, AMELLIORATION CARBUR, P30 BUPP IC, 1987, LIGHT WATER NUCL DRE, P241 CHEVALIER JM, 1973, NOUVEL ENJEU PETROLI, P305 DAMIAN M, 1994, ENERGY STUDIES REV, V6, P73 DESSUS B, 1994, ATLAS ENERGIES MONDE, P141 FINON D, 1993, UTILITIES POLICY JUL, P209 FINON D, 1995, VARIETE DYNAMIQUE OR, P21 FORAY D, 1992, TECHNOLOGIE RICHESSE, P516 FREEMAN C, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC, P244 FREEMAN C, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P5 GRUBLER A, 1992, WP922 IIASA, P65 HERAUD JA, 1992, ECON APPL, V4, P45 JENNINGS JS, 1995, ENERPRESSE, V6454, P5 LYNCH MC, 1995, J ENERGY DEV, V19, P15 MARTIN JM, 1969, GENESE INNOVATIONS T MARTIN JM, 1978, EC ECHELLE ENGENDREE, P15 MARTIN JM, 1980, REV EC IND, V11, P92 MARTIN JM, 1994, P SEM EUR STRAT EN R, P193 METCALFE JS, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P25 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PAVITT K, 1990, EC TECHNICAL CHANGE, P303 PERRIN F, 1984, THESIS IEPE GRENOBLE, P362 PUISEUX L, 1977, BABEL NUCL, P303 PUTNAM P, 1953, ENERGY FUTURE, P556 ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL, P353 SALOMON JJ, 1992, DESTIN TECHNOLOGIQUE, P331 SAMPERIO I, 1995, THESIS IEPE GRENOBLE, P414 STERLING D, 1988, NEW TRANSPORTATION F, P532 STOBAUGH R, 1983, ENERGIIE FUTUR, P315 WOYTINSKI WS, 1953, WORLD POPULATION PRO, P1268 NR 35 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 81 EP 95 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300008 ER PT J AU Grubler, A Nakicenovic, N TI Decarbonizing the global energy system SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The study analyzes the long-term decarbonization of the global energy system, i.e., the decrease of the carbon emissions per unit of primary energy. Decarbonization appears as a continuous and persistent trend throughout the world, albeit occurring at very slow rates of approximately 0.3% per year. The study also discusses driving forces of the associated structural changes in energy systems such as technological change. Decarbonization also occurs at the level of energy end use and trends for final energy are shown. The quest for higher flexibility, convenience, and cleanliness of energy services demanded by consumers leads to decarbonization trends in final energy that are more pronounced than those of the upstream energy sector. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications for long-term scenarios of energy-environment interactions suggesting that decarbonization and its driving forces may still be insufficiently captured by most models and scenarios of the long-term evolution of the energy system. RP Grubler, A, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM COMPATIBLE ENERGY STRATEGIES PROJECT,SCHLOSSPL 1,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR *BP, 1975, BP STAT REV WORLD EN *FAO, 1965, FAO YB PROD *IEA, 1993, EN STAT BAL OECD NON *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1994 RAD, P339 *UN, 1952, WORLD EN SUPPL SEL Y *UN, 1995, 1991 EN STAT YB, P494 *UNEP OECD IEA IPC, 1995, IPCC GUID NAT GREENH, V1 *UNFCC, 1992, TEXT UN FRAM CONV CL ALCAMO J, 1995, EVALUATION IPCC IS92 ARRHENIUS S, 1986, PHILOS MAGAZINE APR, P237 DARMSTADTER J, 1971, ENERGY WORLD EC STAT, P876 DEBECKER A, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V46, P153 ETEMAND B, 1991, WORLD ENERGY PRODUCT, P272 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC FUJII Y, 1990, WP9055 INT I APPL SY GRUBLER A, 1991, ENTROPIE, V164, P29 GRUBLER A, 1994, IND ECOLOGY GLOBAL C GRUBLER A, 1995, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, CH1 KAYA Y, 1989, TOK C GLOB ENV HUM R KEELING CD, 1973, TELLUS, V25, P174 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 INT I APPL SY MARLAND G, 1989, ORNLCDIAC25 NAKICENOVIC N, 1984, THESIS INT I APPL SY NAKICENOVIC N, 1992, OPTIONS SEP, P4 NAKICENOVIC N, 1993, WP9376 INT I APPL SY NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P75 PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSION SCENARIOS I POSCH M, 1987, METHODS ESTIMATING S PUTNAM PC, 1954, ENERGY FUTURE, P556 SUBAK S, 1990, USABLE KNOWLEDGE MAN YAMAJI K, 1991, P WORKSH EC EN ENV M, P13 NR 32 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 97 EP 110 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300009 ER PT J AU Wernick, IK TI Consuming materials: The American way SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Sustaining the U.S. economy requires large inputs of materials, and their extraction, processing, and consumption affect the environment in many ways. In the United States, as in most industrialized countries, bulk materials consumption no longer runs in tanden with economic activity. Demand for raw materials in the richer countries has fallen well below the forecasts of decades ago, confounding predictions of dire shortage and reducing the projected income of countries that rely on mineral exports. Demographic shifts in the US and individual consumer preferences drive greater and more varied consumption. Saturated markets and technological advances offer promise for reduction. The success of large-scale materials recycling depends on the economics of secondary materials recovery and the suitability of secondary materials for reuse. Powerful social and demographic forces that draw more materials into the system will vie with technological innovations intended to limit inputs in shaping the future path of materials consumption in the United States. RP Wernick, IK, ROCKEFELLER UNIV,PROGRAM HUMAN ENVIRONM,1230 YORK AVE,NEW YORK,NY 10021. CR *FRANKL ASS LTD, 1992, 530R92019 EPA FRANKL *INFORM, 1995, TOX WATCH *UN, 1978, WORLD EN SUPPL 1972 *UN, 1992, LONG RANG WORLD POP *US BUR CENS, 1975, HIST STAT US COL TIM *US BUR CENS, 1993, STAT ABSTR US *US C, 1952, 527 US C US HOUS REP *WARDS COMM, 1970, WARDS AUT YB *WORLD EN C, 1974, WORLD EN C SURV EN R *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES GUID GLOB, P6 AHMED I, 1993, USE WASTE MAT HIGHWA ALLENBY BR, 1995, IND ECOLOGY BARSOTTI AF, 1995, IMPLICATIONS FLUE GA BERNARDINI O, 1993, FUTURES MAY, P431 BRAUN E, 1995, FUTILE PROGR DURNING A, 1992, MUCH IS ENOUGH CONSU GOELLER HE, 1976, SCIENCE, V191, P683 GOTOH S, 1994, INT C IND EC IRV CA GRUEBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC HODGES CA, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P1305 HURDELBRINK R, 1989, P IND U ADV MAT C 2 INCE PJ, 1994, RECYCLING WOOD PAPER KISER K, 1994, SCRAP PROCESSING REC, V51, P40 MALENBAUM W, 1978, WORLD DEMAND RAW MAT MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH NAKICENOVIC N, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125 PHILBIN ML, 1995, MOD CAST, V85, P25 ROGICH DG, 1993, INT REC C REC93 TRAD SANDERS RE, 1993, SAE INT C EXP DETR M SCHIPPER L, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125 STAFF, 1959, MOD PLAST, V36, P71 THOMAS VM, 1994, 285 PUCEES WERNICK IK, 1994, JOM-J MIN MET MAT S, V46, P39 WERNICK IK, 1995, ANNU REV ENERGY ENV, V20, P462 WERNICK IK, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125 WILLIAMS RH, 1987, ANN REV ENERGY ENV, P99 NR 36 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 53 IS 1 BP 111 EP 122 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WH173 UT ISI:A1996WH17300010 ER PT J AU Morgan, NS TI Pen, print, and pentium SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Development of the printing press was motivated by desire to-enhance productivity in a familiar and important task. The outcome was vastly more extensive than the financial rewards anticipated by its promoters, for print was an essential instrument in transforming the social structure of Europe and establishing the conceptual premises of governments throughout the modern world. Those premises are eroding under the impact of the computerized communications revolution. Political consequences may be inferred from some parallels with Renaissance experience. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Morgan, NS, MCGILL UNIV,CTR MED ETH & LAW,3690 PEEL ST,MONTREAL,PQ H3A 1W9,CANADA. CR 1995, CREATING NEW CIVILIZ 1996, DEVOIR 0513 1996, PLANETE CYBER INTERN 1996, TRANSVERSALES JAN BARNET RJ, 1994, GLOBAL DREAMS IMPERI BIRKERTS S, 1995, GUTENBERGS ELEGIES F CHAPPEL W, 1970, SHORT HIST PRINTED W, P69 CHARTIER R, 1989, HIST PRIVATE LIFE PA CHATELET F, 1978, HIST IDEOLOGIES EGLI CHOMSKY N, 1988, MANUFACTURING CONSEN DAMICO JF, 1988, CAMBRIGE HIST RENAIS DAVIDSON JD, 1993, GREAT RECKONING DREYER JLE, 1905, HIST PLANETARY SYSTE, P135 ELLUL J, 1968, PROPAGANDA FORMATION KORTEN DC, 1995, CORPORATIONS RULE WO MORGAN NS, 1996, FUTURIBLES SEP MUMFORD L, 1934, TECHNICS CIVILIZATIO MUNITZ MK, 1957, THEORIES UNIVERSE, P142 ORTEGAYGASSET J, 1930, REVOLT MASSES WALLIS CG, 1952, GREAT BOOKS W WORLD, V16, P481 WEBB WP, 1952, GREAT FRONTIER NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 11 EP 16 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100002 ER PT J AU Kash, DE Rycroft, RW TI Synthetic technology-analytic governance: The 21st century challenge SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB There has been a growing divergence between the reality of U.S. society and the nation's conceptual model of governance and this pattern will likely continue into the 21st century. The divergence is being driven by a rapidly changing reality which has at its core the continuous innovation of complex technologies through a process of synthesis. The nation's analytic model of governance is increasingly unresponsive to the synthetic reality with one result being increased social stress. This article investigates the reasons for the divergence and future governance needs. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 GEORGE MASON UNIV,ELLIOTT SCH INT AFFAIRS,CTR INT SCI & TECHNOL POLICY,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. RP Kash, DE, GEORGE MASON UNIV,INST PUBL POLICY,CHAIR PUBL POLICY,4400 UNIV DR,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. CR 1991, BUSINESS WEEK 1020, P65 ADAMS RC, 1995, THESIS G MASON U FAI, P15 COATES JF, 1996, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI, V1, P99 DIONE EJ, 1994, WASHINGTON POST 1227, A15 FINE S, 1956, LAISSEZ FAIRE GEN WE, R7 FREEMAN C, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J EC FEB, P5 GELLMANN M, 1994, QUARK JAGUAR ADVENTU, P72 GRAHAM OL, 1992, LOSING TIME IND POLI GRINDLEY P, 1994, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V4, P723 GROSSMAN JB, 1988, CONSTITUTIONAL LAW J, P561 HOLLAND JH, 1995, HIDDEN ORDER ADAPTAT HORGAN J, 1995, SCI AM JUN, P107 HOUNSHELL DA, 1984, AM SYSTEM MASS PRODU KASH DE, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P35 KAUFFMAN SA, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE SEARCH KLINE SJ, 1995, CONCEPTUAL FDN MULTI, P49 KODAMA F, 1995, EMERGING PATTERNS IN KUNDA G, 1992, ENG CULTURE CONTROL, P214 LEE ME, 1994, EC CHAOS THEORY NEW, P167 LIPSET SM, 1996, AM EXCEPTIONALISM DO, P17 LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MORAN R, 1996, WASHINGTON POST 0128, P1 MORAN R, 1996, WASHINGTON POST 0128, P6 MORAN, AM LOSING TRUST EACH, P1 NELL EJ, 1993, LEARNING TECHNOLOGIC, P217 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY, P115 NELSON RR, 1989, SCI TECHNOLOGY H SUM, P229 NELSON RR, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST NONAKA I, 1995, KNOWLEDGE CREATING C SPENCER WJ, 1994, ISSUES SCI TECHN WIN, P63 THOMAS R, 1993, NEWSWEEK 0712, P38 TOCQUEVILLE AD, 1948, DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA, V1 TOCQUEVILLE AD, 1964, OLD REGIME FRENCH RE VINCENTI WG, 1990, ENG KNOW THEY KNOW I, P198 WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING WEBER M, 1983, CAPITALISM BUREAUCRA WHEATLEY MJ, 1992, LEADERSHIP NEW SCI L, P75 NR 37 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 17 EP 27 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100003 ER PT J AU Rosell, SA TI Governing in an information society SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article describes the work being undertaken by a roundtable of senior government officials and private sector executives in Canada, who have been working together to examine the implications for governance of the emergence of a global information society and to develop more effective approaches to governing in that new context. It describes how the members of the roundtable have conceptualized the information society and some of the challenges it poses. It summarizes the action-learning process they have followed to explore these issues more deeply and to experiment with better approaches to governing in the information society. And it outlines some of the initial findings to emerge from their continuing work. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. CR BELL D, 1980, MICROELECTRONICS REV CLEVELAND H, 1985, PUBLIC ADM REV JAN, P185 CONKLIN, 1991, CANADAS INFORMATION CORDELL A, 1985, UNEASY 80 TRANSITION GREENWOOD DJ, 1993, HUMAN RELATIONS, V46 MACLURE, 1988, PARTICIPATORY RES ID MICHAEL DN, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P347 NORA S, 1978, INFORMATISATION SOC ROSELL SA, 1992, GOVERNING INFORMATIO ROSELL SA, 1995, CHANGING MAPS GOVERN SCHON DA, 1971, STABLE STATE TAYLOR JR, 1993, VULNERABLE FORTRESS WHYTE WF, 1989, AM BEHAV SCI, V32, P499 NR 13 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 29 EP 35 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100004 ER PT J AU Sharif, N TI Reengineering technology governance for Philippines 2000 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article presents a framework for reengineering the science and technology support services and facilities of the government of the Philippines, developed by the author as lead consultant for the design phase of a United Nations Development Program-funded project, entitled ''Achieving International Competitiveness through Technology Development and Transfer,'' the ultimate goal of which is to influence the national development management process for realizing the ''Philippines 2000'' vision of the country. As the observable worldwide socioeconomic impacts of technological advancements are becoming profound day by day, the government recognizes that technology will be the key factor for achieving desired export gain in the information-intensive twenty-first century. Thus, this is a methodological framework for the governance of technological initiatives in energizing agro-industrial export potentials. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Sharif, N, ASIAN INST TECHNOL,SCH MANAGEMENT,GPO BOX 2754,BANGKOK 10501,THAILAND. 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Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 37 EP 55 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100005 ER PT J AU Moon, MJ Bretschneider, S TI Can state government actions affect innovation and its diffusion?: An extended communication model and empirical test SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER; INFORMATION-SYSTEMS; SCIENCE; LABORATORIES; IMPACT AB This article looks at how a state government's roles as both a sponsor and a diffuser of an innovation affect the adoption-diffusion process. The article first develops a theoretical framework by extending the basic communication model of diffusion to include state government's role in state government-sponsored innovation and its diffusion. This model also incorporates organizational and innovation factors. Next an empirical test of the extended communication model is conducted using data on innovations sponsored by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). The results suggest that the degree of state government involvement in innovation development is positively associated with diffusion. The results also indicate that state government's diffusion-facilitating efforts such as providing information about innovations, financial support during development, and procedural facilitation of development are positively related to industry's adoption decision for new innovation. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 SYRACUSE UNIV,MAXWELL SCH CITIZENSHIP & PUBL AFFAIRS,DEPT PUBL ADM,CTR TECHNOL & INFORMAT POLICY,SYRACUSE,NY 13244. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 57 EP 77 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100006 ER PT J AU Smith, MY Stacey, R TI Governance and cooperative networks: An adaptive systems perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The Governance debate is usually couched in terms of the efficacy of formal structures to ensure a degree of cooperation sufficient to bring about order in human affairs. It is assumed that intended global outcomes for a system can be linked back to the local actions of agents in that system. Sections 2 and 3 argue that studies of complex adaptive systems provide reasons for questioning whether it is possible to link the local actions and intentions of agents to the global behavioral patterns of the systems of which they are a part. The governance debate therefore needs a stronger focus on the dynamics of human systems to produce emergent order. This article is about the implications for governance of the cooperative informal networks that fuction in competition with the formal systems which spawn them. Section 4 presents a case study of an international agency for technical assistance, which illustrates the points made in sections 2 and 3: people in that organization spontaneously self-organized to form a learning system out of which a new strategic direction for their organization and governance emerged. Tensions between the shadow organization and the formal organization generated new forms of behavior. This process of bounded instability-tension and conflict-is essential to break down old patterns of thought and behavior and to allow the new to emerge. This is typically how complex adaptive systems evolve. In the fight against poverty and underdevelopment, those in authority and control need to be aware of the limitations on their capacity to orchestrate local actions so as to realize their own prior global objective within their organizations in breaking down old assumptions and creating new approaches to dealing with difficult issues. Therefore, the international organizations need to support adaptiveness in action, using an informal cooperative networking approach, which implies a new type of governance. If their managers (or new ones replacing them) do not introduce new mechanisms and approaches, with a faster response time, the prospects for their organizations are not bright, and their capacity and governance is very poor. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV HERTFORDSHIRE,SCH BUSINESS,HATFIELD AL10 9AB,HERTS,ENGLAND. RP Smith, MY, CPTM LTD,14 QUEEN ANNES GATE,LONDON SW1H 9AA,ENGLAND. CR BEER M, 1990, CRITICAL PATH CORPOR BION WR, 1961, EXPERIENCES GROUPS BROWN JS, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P40 CHARAN R, 1991, HARVARD BUS REV, V12, P479 DUTTON JE, 1988, MANAGING AMBIGUITY C GELLMANN M, 1994, QUARK JAGUAR GEMMELL G, 1985, HUM RELAT, V36, P50 GOULDNER AW, 1964, PATTERNS IND BUREAUC HAMPDENTURNER C, 1990, CHARTING CORPORATE M HAYEK FA, 1948, INDIVIDUALISM EC ORD HAYEK FA, 1982, LAW LEGISLATION LIBE HUFF AS, 1988, MANAGING AMBIGUITY C KAUFMANN SA, 1993, ORIGINS ORDER SELF O LEVY S, 1992, ARTIFICIAL LIFE MERTON RK, 1957, SOCIAL THEORY SOCIAL MILLER D, 1990, ICARUS PARADOX EXCEL MINTZBERG H, 1985, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V6, P257 MUELLER RK, 1986, CORPORATE NETWORKING NOHRIA N, 1992, NETWORKS ORG NONAKA I, 1988, CALIFORNIA MANAG SPR, P57 PASCALE RT, 1990, MANAGING EDGE SUCCES PETERS EE, 1991, CHAOS ORDER CAPITAL SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SENGE PM, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE ART PRA STACEY R, MANAGING CHAOS STACEY R, 1990, DYNAMIC STRATEGIC MA STACEY R, 1991, CHAOS FRONTIER CREAT STACEY R, 1992, MANAGING UNKNOWABLE STACEY R, 1996, COMPLEXITY CREATIVIT STACEY R, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT STAPLEY LF, 1994, THESIS SHEFFIELD HAL TRIST EL, 1951, HUM RELAT, V5, P6 WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING WHEATLEY MJ, 1992, LEADERSHIP NEW SCI L ZIMMERMAN BJ, 1992, IMPLEMENTING STRATEG ZIMMERMANN BJ, 1991, THESIS YORK U TORONT NR 36 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 79 EP 94 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100007 ER PT J AU Toma, L TI Proposal for a world governance network SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The key to future development of the world is to exploit the possibilities of the new technologies of communication in a cost effective way to support the development of governance throughout the world. A world governance network, based on the technology of the Internet, would be a step in this direction. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 WORLD BANK,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 95 EP 98 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100008 ER PT J AU Glenn, JC Gordon, TJ TI Governance and conflict developments collected in round 1 of the Millennium Project 1996 look-out study SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The first year's operations of The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University is described. The four-round 1996 Global Look-Out Study is one of the three primary activities explained. Results of Round 1 and 2 in the domain of governance and conflict are listed. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Glenn, JC, UNU,MILLENNIUM PROJECT,AMER COUNCIL,4421 GARRISON ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. CR GORDON TJ, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P147 NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 99 EP 110 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100009 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Historical lessons from technological disruptions: Will the storm always pass? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Coates, JF, COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 111 EP 117 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA WD571 UT ISI:A1997WD57100010 ER PT J AU Phillips, F Kim, N TI Implications of chaos research for new product forecasting SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION DIFFUSION-MODELS; PURCHASES AB The mathematics of chaotic dynamics are now familiar to Product forecasters and marketing researchers. Do possible sightings of chaos in new product data sets have implications for the way new product studies and launches should be performed? Should these practices be affected by the knowledge that chaos is possible in principle? Although the mathematics of new product diffusion models clearly allow for chaotic bifurcations and fluctuations, these phenomena have not been reliably observed for actual products. In this article we offer reasons why this has been so. The reasons include measurement and specification error, and aggregation and data collection interval effects. We conclude that marketers have not been looking in the right places to find chaos (or al least traditional market research reports do not lend themselves to an effective search for chaos), and that brand managers behave in a way that minimizes chances of observing chaos. The exploration of chaos in the context of new product management leads to an analysis of the implications of chaos for the practice of new product forecasting. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV TEXAS,CTR CYBERNET STUDIES,AUSTIN,TX 78712. HONG KONG UNIV SCI & TECHNOL,SCH BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT,HONG KONG,HONG KONG. RP Phillips, F, OREGON GRAD INST SCI & TECHNOL,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI & TECHNOL,PORTLAND,OR 97291. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 53 IS 3 BP 239 EP 261 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VU725 UT ISI:A1996VU72500001 ER PT J AU Foray, D Gibbons, M TI Discovery in the context of application SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article addresses several issues raised by a very particular pattern of knowledge generation, called ''discovery in the context of application.'' The case of a hypersonic aircraft research program illustrates that the organizational design of such programs is a very complex matter. The problem cannot be dealt with in the conventional way by having different organizational forms for different phases of the process-say, one for the research phase another for the development phase, a further for the testing phase, and so on-because of its integral nature. Two modes of organization are considered but neither, on its own, seems to be quire adequate to govern the management of the whole process. The need is to deal with the problem of finding a balance between two (distinct) organizational imperatives: the need to manage the interaction between a large number of projects that are carried out in different locations, and the need to bring a wide range of problem solvers into a single entity. The former mode is necessary to facilitate experiments in different directions and to decrease the risk of missing a possible successful design, the latter to develop the infratechnologies and instrumentalities that will underpin the research agenda. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV PARIS 09,CNRS,F-75775 PARIS 16,FRANCE. UNIV SUSSEX,SCI POLICY RES UNIT,BRIGHTON BN1 9RH,E SUSSEX,ENGLAND. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 53 IS 3 BP 263 EP 277 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VU725 UT ISI:A1996VU72500002 ER PT J AU Dunphy, SM Herbig, PR Howes, ME TI The innovation funnel SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The path to technological innovation is made up of a number of identifiable macro and micro level discriminators. The macro level includes: (1) the technological prerequisites; (2) the country's sociocultural tendencies; and (3) the country's material, human, and institutional infrastructures. At the micro level the filters include: (4) the structure of the particular industry; (5) the size and nature of the individual firm; (6) the attitudes of the management of the firm; and (7) the establishment of standards for the widespread diffusion of the innovation. The absence of one or more of these seven sequential steps diminishes the likelihood that innovation will occur. This article examines the macrocosm of innovation and the screening process while presenting two propositions that suggest how to enhance an invention's progression through the innovation funnel. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 TEXAS A&M UNIV,COLL BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT & MKT,LAREDO,TX. GOVERNORS STATE UNIV,COLL BUSINESS & PUBL ADM,DIV MANAGEMENT ADM SCI & PUBL ADM,UNIVERSITY PK,PA. RP Dunphy, SM, NE ILLINOIS UNIV,DEPT MANAGEMENT & MKT,5500 N ST LOUIS AVE,CHICAGO,IL 60625. CR 1986, AM EC REV DEC, P940 ABRAHAM C, 1985, TECHNOVATION FEB, P3 CASEY JP, 1977, IND MARKETING MA JAN, P47 COHN SF, 1980, IND MARKETING MA APR, P82 COOPER RG, 1985, IND MARKETING MA AUG, P179 EPSTEIN B, 1978, IND MARKETING MA JAN, P113 ETTLIE JE, 1987, J PRODUCT INNOVA JUN, P89 FAST NO, 1979, IND MARKETING MA NOV, P7 GOBELI D, 1985, SLOAN MANAGEMENT SUM, P29 HOFSTEDE G, 1984, CULTURES CONSEQUENCE JOBBER D, 1985, IND MARKETING MA FEB, P35 JOHNE FA, 1984, J PRODUCT INNOVA DEC, P210 JOHNE FA, 1988, J PRODUCT INNOVA JUN, P114 KUHN TS, 1980, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LIPPMAN S, 1987, MANAGEMENT SCI AUG, P1058 MACCOBY M, 1990, CURRENT, V326, P4 MCINTYRE S, 1988, J PRODUCT INNOVA JUN, P140 MOOKHERJEE D, 1991, J ECON THEORY, V54, P124 NOVITCH M, 1991, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V8, P56 QUINN JB, 1986, MCKINSEY Q SPR, P2 REINGANUM T, 1985, Q J EC FEB, P81 ROBERTSON TS, 1986, J MARKETING JUL, P1 ROSENTHALL B, 1988, J PRODUCT INNOVA JUN, P129 ROTHWELL R, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P91 RUTTAN VW, 1988, EC DEV CULTURA S APR, S247 SAFIRE W, 1994, NY TIMES 1031, A19 SAHAL D, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FO JAN, P1 STEFFIRE V, 1985, J PRODUCT INNOVA MAR, P3 TOFFLER A, 1991, WORLD MONITOR, V4, P46 VONHIPPLE E, 1986, MANAGEMENT SCI JUL, P791 VONHIPPLE E, 1987, MCKINSEY Q WIN, P72 VOSS C, 1985, J PRODUCT INNOVA JUN, P113 ZMUD R, 1982, MANAGEMENT SCI DEC, P14 NR 33 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 53 IS 3 BP 279 EP 292 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VU725 UT ISI:A1996VU72500003 ER PT J AU Sedaitis, JB TI Waking the sleeping giants: Commercializing state R&D in the United States and Russia SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER; LABORATORIES AB Survey data from 100 military R&D organizations in the Moscow area are used to compare the efficacy for Russia of the main organizational tools used by U.S. federal labs to encourage the transfer of military research to civilian product development. Structural isolation of the military in both systems has led to a critical gap between commercializing defense technologists and the new markets they hope to enter. This research Ends that, in Russia as in the United States, reliance on inter-organizational ties and the creation of spin-offs are associated with more active methods of pursuing technology transfer. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Sedaitis, JB, STANFORD UNIV,CTR INT SECUR & ARMS CONTROL,320 GALVEZ ST,STANFORD,CA 94305. CR 1993, DELOVIE LYUDI APR, P22 1995, KOMMERSANT DAIL 0328, P3 *FBIS SOV, 1994, FOR BROADC INF 0125 *NAT SCI BOARD, 1993, SCI ENG IND 1993 *OECD, 1994, SCI TECHN INN POL FE ADAMS M, 1995, J HIGH TECHNOLOGY MA, V9, P77 ADELMAN KL, 1992, FOREIGN AFFAIRS SPR, P27 ALIC J, 1992, SPINOFF MILITARY COM AUTIO E, 1995, BABS C ENTR LOND APR BERNSTEIN D, 1994, DEFENSE IND RESTRUCT BLANK SJ, 1995, J SLAVIC MILITARY ST, V8, P691 BOZEMAN B, 1992, TECHNOVATION, V12, P239 BOZEMAN B, 1995, IND PERSPECTIVES COM BRANSCOMB LM, 1993, EMPOWERING TECHNOLOG, P1167 BUCK D, 1993, DEFENSE SCI TECHNOLO CARR RK, 1994, LAB MARKET COMMERCIA CHESNAIS F, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST COAKLEY LA, 1995, COMMERCIALIZING HIGH COHEN LR, 1994, SCI AM SEP, P72 DORF RC, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P251 EROKHIM VM, 1995, VOENNAYA MYSL, V3, P61 GANSLER JS, 1995, DEFENSE CONVERSION T GEISLER E, 1994, LAB MARRKET COMMERCI GIBSON DV, 1994, R D COLLABORATION TR GOMES SL, 1995, COMMERCIALIZING HIGH HOLLOWAY D, 1984, SOVIET UNION ARMS RA KASSICIEH S, 1995, UNPUB COMP STUDY ENT KUZNETSOV Y, 1994, COMMUNIST EC EC TRAN, V6, P473 LIEBRMAN M, 1992, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER LOBSENZ G, 1994, NEW TECHNOLOGY 0912, P11 MARTENZISK K, 1995, POST-SOV AFF, V11, P57 MCTAGUE J, 1988, FEDERAL LAB TECHNOLO MOWERY DC, 1994, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V9, P89 PIORE MJ, 1984, 2 IND DIVIDE POSSIBI POWELL W, 1994 AC MAN ANN M DA RADOSEVICH R, 1995, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V10, P879 ROBERTS EB, 1991, ENTREPRENEURS HIGH T SABEL CF, 1996, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE SANCHEZANDRES A, 1995, COMMUNIST ECON EC TR, V7, P353 SCHWEITZER GE, 1996, STORY INT EFFORT CON SEAWRIGHT GL, 1988, FEDERAL LAB TECHNOLO SEDAITIS JB, 1995, BABS C ENTR LOND APR SHLYKOV VV, 1995, SECUR DIALOGUE, V26, P19 WEBSTER LM, 1993, 228 WORLD BANK WESSEL VW, 1993, TECHNOVATION, V13, P133 ZANAN P, 1988, FEDERAL LAB TECHNOLO NR 46 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 53 IS 3 BP 293 EP 308 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VU725 UT ISI:A1996VU72500004 ER PT J AU Graves, SB Langowitz, NS TI R&D productivity: A global multi-industry comparison SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This study considers the productivity of R&D expenditures on an international and multi-industry basis. Using 1992 data reported by Business Week on 117 companies in the United States, Europe, and Japan, we examined two measures of innovative output, patents and impact-adjusted patents, in relationship to R&D spending. Our results clearly show a decreasing returns to scale of R&D expenditure. Although this pattern holds true regardless of industry or global region, the level of return and rate of decreasing returns vary by both industry and international region. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 BABSON COLL,BABSON PK,MA 02157. RP Graves, SB, BOSTON COLL,CARROLL SCH MANAGEMENT,CHESTNUT HILL,MA 02167. CR 1993, BUSINESS WEEK 0809, P59 *MOOD INV SERV, 1993, MOOD INT MAN ACS ZJ, 1988, AM ECON REV, V78, P678 ACS ZJ, 1991, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG BEAN AS, 1995, RES TECHNOLOGY M JAN BOUND J, 1984, R D PATENT PRODUCTIV CAREY J, 1994, BUSINESS WEEK 0307, P80 CHAKRABARTI AK, 1991, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG FRANKO LG, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V10, P449 GEPPERT L, 1994, IEEE SPECTRUM, V31, P30 GRAVES SB, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P593 JENSEN EJ, 1987, J IND ECON, V36, P83 MORBEY GK, 1988, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V5, P191 PAKES A, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI SCHERER FM, 1965, AM ECON REV, V55, P1097 SCHERER FM, 1983, INT J IND ORGAN, V1, P107 WHEELWRIGHT SC, 1992, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P70 NR 17 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 53 IS 2 BP 125 EP 137 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VN731 UT ISI:A1996VN73100001 ER PT J AU Debackere, K Clarysse, B Rappa, MA TI Dismantling the ivory tower: The influence of networks on innovative output in emerging technologies SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID R-AND-D; RESEARCH JOINT VENTURES; COOPERATIVE RESEARCH; SPILLOVERS; CENTRALITY; COMPANIES; PLANTS AB In this article we examine how R&D networking affects an organization's innovative output. Using empirical data on 419 research organizations in transgene plant research over a 20-year period, we test several hypotheses relating their sociometric position in an R&D network to their innovative output. Attention is paid to the relative importance of in-house versus collaborative research. Least squares dummy variable models are used to analyze cross-sectional data across different time periods. The results show that (1) an organization's ''network embeddedness'' positively influences its innovative output; whereas (2) involvement in collaborative R&D has a curvilinear effect on innovative performance. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 DE VLERICK SCH MANAGEMENT,GHENT,BELGIUM. MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. RP Debackere, K, KATHOLIEKE UNIV LEUVEN,DEPT APPL ECON,B-3000 LOUVAIN,BELGIUM. CR 1986, BIOTECHNOLOGY, V4, P403 1990, BUSINESS WORLD 0610, P125 ARORA A, 1990, J IND ECON, V38, P361 BOZEMAN B, 1986, MANAGE DECIS ECON, V7, P263 BURT RS, 1991, STRUCTURE REFERENCE BURT RS, 1992, STRUCTURAL HOLES SOC CLARYSSE B, 1994, 2 IFSAM C DALL TX AU COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 COHEN WM, 1989, HDB IND ORG COLEMAN JS, 1988, AM J SOCIOL, V94, P95 CONSTANT EW, 1980, ORIGINS TURBOJET REV COOK KS, 1977, SOCIOLOGICAL Q, V18, P62 DALEY P, 1985, BIOTECHNOLOGY BUSINE DIELMAN TE, 1983, AM STAT, V37 FREEMAN LC, 1977, SOCIOMETRY, V40, P35 FREEMAN LC, 1979, SOC NETWORKS, V1, P215 FREEMAN RE, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT GARUD R, 1992, P 52 ANN M AM AC MAN, P369 GASSER CS, 1992, SCI AM JUN, P34 GRANOVETTER M, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V91, P481 GRAY B, 1985, HUM RELAT, V38, P911 GREEN WH, 1992, LIMDEP GRIERSON D, 1991, PLANT GENETIC ENG GROSSMAN GM, 1986, J LAW ECON ORGAN, V2, P315 GUTMANN E, 1991, PROPRIETE IND, V10, P398 HAGEDOORN J, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P163 HANNAN MT, 1992, DYNAMICS ORG POPULAT HODGSON J, 1990, BIO-TECHNOL, V8, P624 KAREIVA P, 1993, NATURE, V363, P580 KATZ ML, 1986, RAND J ECON, V17, P527 KESTELOOT K, 1993, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V2, P171 KNOKE D, 1983, APPL SOCIAL RES METH, V28 LEVIN RC, 1988, RAND J ECON, V19, P538 MOWERY DC, 1989, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON RR, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P165 ORDOVER JA, 1985, J LAW ECON, V28, P311 PFEFFER J, 1978, EXTERNAL CONTROL ORG PISANO GP, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P153 POWELL WW, 1990, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V12, P295 POWELL WW, 1992, NETWORKS ORG RAPPA MA, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P209 RAPPA MA, 1992, REPRESENTATIONS SCI, P253 ROTHWELL R, 1985, INNOVATION SMALL MED SAYRS LW, 1989, QUANTITATIVE APPL SO, V70 SINHA DK, 1991, MANAGE SCI, V37, P1091 SUZUMURA K, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1307 THOMSON R, 1989, PATH MECH SHOE PRODU TIROLE J, 1988, IND ORG VALLE FD, 1993, R&D MANAGE, V23, P287 VONEYE A, 1990, STAT METHODS LONGITU WEELWRIGHT RS, 1992, REVOLUTIONALIZING PR NR 52 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 53 IS 2 BP 139 EP 154 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VN731 UT ISI:A1996VN73100002 ER PT J AU Berry, BJL TI Technology-driven forecasts, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy-making SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INTEREST-RATES AB The relationship between unemployment and the inflation rare is nonlinear and negative within the shorter-run timespan of business cycles, but positive in the longer run, the two-generation period in which techno-economic systems advance from innovation to market saturation. Monetary policymaking in the United States utilizes forecasts based upon the shorter term relationship, but these forecasts may be confounded by the countervailing long-wave relationship. This study presents a model that includes both the short- and long-term relationships and shows how inclusion of long-wave considerations changes preferred policy choices. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Berry, BJL, UNIV TEXAS,SCH SOCIAL SCI,POB 83-0688,MS GR31,RICHARDSON,TX 75083. CR AMIDHOZOUR E, 1971, ECONOMICA, V39, P319 BERNANKE BS, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P901 BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BERRY BJL, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P111 BROWN AJ, 1955, GREAT INFLATION 1939 CUKIERMAN A, 1984, INFLATION STAGFLATIO, P36 EISNER R, 1994, MISUNDERSTOOD EC WHA FISHER I, 1926, INT LABOUR REV JUN, P785 FRIEDMAN M, 1968, AM ECON REV, V58, P1 FUHRER JC, 1995, AM ECON REV, V85, P219 FUHRER JC, 1995, NEW ENGL ECON REV, P39 FUHRER JC, 1995, NEW ENGLAND EC R MAR, P40 GARDNER CA, 1994, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, P5 GORDON RJ, 1978, MACROECONOMICS KOENIG EF, 1994, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, P1 KRUGMAN P, 1994, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, P23 LUCAS RE, 1973, AM ECON REV, V63, P326 ORMEROD P, 1994, DEATH EC, P115 PARKIN M, 1994, ECONOMICS PHELPS ES, 1967, ECONOMICA, V34, P254 PHILLIPS AW, 1958, ECONOMICA, V25, P283 ROBINSON JD, 1994, FOREIGN AFF, V73, P2 SAMUELSON PA, 1960, AM ECON REV, V50, P177 TOOTELL GMB, 1994, NEW ENGL ECON REV, P31 WEINER SE, 1993, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, V78, P53 NR 25 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 53 IS 2 BP 155 EP 167 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VN731 UT ISI:A1996VN73100003 ER PT J AU KovoorMisra, S TI Moving toward crisis preparedness: Factors that motivate organizations SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MANAGEMENT AB This article proposes that factors such as the experience of a crisis, new members on the top management team, regulation, expectations of the industry association, and the potential threat of media scrutiny motivate organizations to make changes in their crisis preparation practices and move toward greater preparedness. It describes how each of these factors motivate organizations to make changes, and explains specific characteristics that are critical in creating fundamental versus superficial changes. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV COLORADO,COLL BUSINESS,DENVER,CO 80217. CR *JOHNS JOHNS, 1982, ANN REP *PC, 1986, 040000004963 ARGYRIS C, 1978, ORG LEARNING BARTON L, 1993, CRISIS ORG MANAGING BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 CHAGANTI R, 1987, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V8, P393 COOK K, 1983, ACAD MANAGE REV, V8, P193 FINK SL, 1986, CRISIS MANAGEMENT PL FRIEDLANDER F, 1983, EXECUTIVE MIND HAMBRICK DC, 1984, ACAD MANAGE REV, V9, P193 KATZ D, 1978, SOCIAL PSYCHOL ORG KOVOOR S, 1991, THESIS U SO CALIFORN KOVOORMISRA S, 1995, PRESCRIPTION VERSUS KOVOORMISRA S, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V48, P143 LEWIN K, 1951, FIELD THEORY SOCIAL LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY MESHKATI N, 1991, IND CRISIS Q, V5, P1 MITROFF II, 1989, IND CRISIS Q, V3, P269 PAUCHANT T, 1992, TRANSFORMING CRISIS PEARSON CM, 1993, EXECUTIVE, V7, P48 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV ROCHLIN GI, 1993, NEW CHALLENGES UNDER SHRIVASTAVA P, 1987, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SHRIVASTAVA P, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P285 SHRIVASTAVA P, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V45, P251 SITKIN SB, 1992, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V14, P231 STAW BM, 1981, ADM SCI Q, V26, P501 THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TURNER BA, 1978, MAN MADE DISASTERS TVERSKY A, 1973, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V5, P207 WEICK KE, 1987, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V25, P111 WIERSEMA MF, 1992, ACAD MANAGE J, V35, P91 NR 32 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 53 IS 2 BP 169 EP 183 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VN731 UT ISI:A1996VN73100004 ER PT J AU Hunhammar, S TI Nuclear future - A case of method bias? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This study points out major errors in an article published in this journal by Nitta and Yoda [1] tilled, ''Challenging the Human Crisis: The Trilemma.''' Nitta and Yoda forecast a nuclear future based on assumptions of a high energy demand, scarce oil reserves, and a low potential of renewable energy sources. The validity of these assumptions is analyzed, and they are found inaccurate. Nitta and Yoda also use different forecasting techniques for different technologies that encourage the prospects of nuclear power and discourage the future of solar energy. No arguments are provided for the different choices of forecasting methods. When discussing future alternatives, the approach taken is of viral importance, because the method itself often affects the result. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Hunhammar, S, SEI,BOX 2142,S-10314 STOCKHOLM,SWEDEN. CR 1995, ECONOMIST 1007 *AM AUT MAN ASS, 1995, 1995 WORLD MOT VEH D, P4 *UN C ENV DEV, 1992, RIO DECL ENV DEV *UN SOL EN GROUP E, 1992, AAC21819925 UNSEGED *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT, P43 AZAR C, 1995, THESIS CHALMERS U TE BOLIN B, 1993, HOTET KLIMATFORANDRI, P104 COSTANZA R, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P37 COSTANZA R, 1995, ECOL ECON, V15, P193 DREBORG KH, IN PRESS ESSENCE BAC FLAVIN C, 1994, VITAL SIGNS FLAVIN C, 1995, STATE WORLD GOLDEMBERG J, 1988, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE W, P293 GRUBLER A, 1991, RR918 INT I APPL SYS, P7 GRUBLER A, 1995, WP95102 IIASA JACKSON T, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY PRO JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU MORITA T, 1993, MITA GAKKAI ZASSHI, V4 NITTA Y, 1995, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V49, P175 PEZZEY J, 1992, 2 WORLD BANK, P11 RAE JB, 1984, AM AUTOMOBILE IND RODHE H, 1994, GEN CONCEPTS ENV PRO, P69 SHELL, 1995, SHELL BRIEFING SERVI NR 23 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 53 IS 2 BP 213 EP 223 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VN731 UT ISI:A1996VN73100006 ER PT J AU Nitta, Y TI A rebuttal to ''nuclear future - A case of method bias?'' SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A rebuttal to Mr. Sven Hunhammar's technical note is offered. It is stressed that the Nitta and Yoda paper intended to present a holistic scenario of the projected energy shortage without expressing any preference for any particular energy generating technology or forecasting method. Also, the authors explain that their representation of the growth rate in solar cell production accurately represents historical reality. (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Inc. RP Nitta, Y, CRIEPI,RES & DEV MANAGEMENT DIV,CHIYODA KU,1-6-1 OHTEMACHI,TOKYO 100,JAPAN. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 53 IS 2 BP 225 EP 226 PG 2 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VN731 UT ISI:A1996VN73100007 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Economists' distortion of the contribution of science and technology to the economy SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Coates, JF, COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. CR LINSTONE, CHALLENGE 21 CENTURY, P257 NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 53 IS 2 BP 227 EP 232 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA VN731 UT ISI:A1996VN73100008 ER PT J AU Katsh, ME TI Competing in cyberspace: The future of the legal profession SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Law is an information-oriented profession that has been profoundly affected by the traditional media, particularly print. In relying on new information technologies, lawyers are engaged both in a process of adaptation, as new tools displace old tools, and in a process of acculturation, as a new information environment emerges in which there are changing assumptions and expectations about the value and use of information. In this digital environment, professional boundaries are vulnerable as control over bodies of knowledge is weakened. In addition, the legal profession must respond to increasing levels of complexity in relationships, to increasing rates of change, and to increasing levels of conflict, all of which are occurring at the same time that the role and meaning of the profession is being redefined. RP Katsh, ME, UNIV MASSACHUSETTS,DEPT LEGAL STUDIES,216 HAMPSHIRE HOUSE,AMHERST,MA 01003. CR 1978, FORBES 0904, P94 1995, LEGAL TIMES 0522, S34 *AM BAR ASS, 1995, SURV AUT SMALL LAW F *NY STAT BAR ASS, 1995, FIN REP CHIEF JUDG BRILL S, 1993, AM LAW JUL, P5 EISENSTEIN EL, 1979, PRINTING PRESS AGENT FREIDSON E, 1986, PROFESSIONAL POWERS GOFFMAN E, 1959, PRESENTATION SELF EV GREENWOOD E, 1957, SOC WORK, V2, P44 HARTMANN M, 1993, LAW SOC REV, V27, P421 KATSH E, 1995, LAW DIGITAL WORLD KATSH ME, 1989, ELECT MEDIA TRANSFOR LARSON MS, 1977, RISE PROFESSIONALISM LISTON R, 1986, UPI 0803 LOVETT WJ, 1994, NATL LAW J 0829 MAISTER DH, 1993, AM LAWYER DEC, P32 MATASAR RA, 1995, VAL U L REV, V29, P909 MORRISON P, 1993, NATL LJ 0809, P12 MYERS K, 1995, NATL LJ 0710, A15 PREST W, 1986, RISE BARRISTERS ROSS PE, 1995, FORBES 0522, P240 SANDERS CM, 1995, CHI DAILY L B 1027, P1 STAUDT RW, 1995, CHICAGO KENT 1994 LA VANDAGRIFF DP, 1993, ABA J DEC WRIGHT P, 1951, CANADIAN BAR REV, V29, P748 WRIGHT P, 1951, CANADIAN BAR REV, V29, P752 NR 26 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 109 EP 117 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600002 ER PT J AU Ogden, MR TI Electronic power to the people: Who is technology's keeper on the cyberspace frontier? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Cyberspace in all its myriad incarnations has emerged as society's latest frontier-full of hope and promise but also fraught with peril and vulnerabilities. As we make ever deeper forays into cyberspace, it becomes increasingly more important to recognize that the technology that supports it is more than just hardware; it is also social process-possessing both high promise and high risk. In our fast-paced, interconnected, complex world - made all the more so by information technology-induced change and unrealistic or reckless demands we have pushed our society to its limit. The unfinished business for the social management of technology is to recognize that social change is largely a political act. in a democracy, individual citizens may need to lead the leaders in writing the script. Thus, the proposition that ownership of cyberspace as social space or even as political space, resides first with the people is central to achieving its true potential. The need to affirm the basic principles of freedom and liberty is very real in this new environment. Such an affirmation is needed in part because we are beginning to homestead new territory, a virtual territory, where there are as yet few rules-where power resides with whoever controls the technology, and whoever controls the technology controls the future. RP Ogden, MR, UNIV HAWAII MANOA,DEPT COMMUN,2560 CAMPUS RD,GEORGE 336,HONOLULU,HI 96822. CR 1994, HONOLULU ADVERT 1204, B4 1994, NY TIMES 0117, A16 1995, ECONOMIST, V334, P21 1995, NY TIMES 1028, A17 1995, US TODAY 1031, A1 BARBOUR I, 1993, GIFFORD LECT, V2 BELL D, 1973, COMING POST IND SOC BIESADA A, 1993, UNIXWORLD, V10, P58 BRANSCOMB A, 1994, WHO OWNS INFORMATION DENT H, 1995, JOB SHOCK 4 NEW PRIN DIZARD WP, 1982, COMING INFORMATION A DORDICK H, 1993, INFORMATION SOC RETR ELGIN D, 1991, WHOLEEARTH REV, P28 ELLUL J, 1964, TECHNOLOGICAL SOC ELLUL J, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM ELLUL J, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL BLUFF FIRESTONE C, 1995, INFORMATION BILL RIG GORE A, 1991, SCI AM, V256, P150 GROSSMAN L, 1995, ELECT REPUBLIC RESHA KAHN H, 1976, NEXT 200 YEARS SCENA KARRAKER R, 1991, WHOLEEARTH REV, P4 KARRAKER R, 1994, WHOLEEARTH REV, P18 KROKER A, 1994, DATA TRASH THEORY VI, P6 KURZWEIL R, 1990, AGE INTELLIGENT MACH LEEBAERT D, 1992, TECHNOLOGY 2001 FUTU LINSTONE HA, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P153 MACHLUP F, 1962, PRODUCTION DISTRIBUT MEEKS B, 1995, WIRED, V3, P86 MIRABITO M, 1994, NEW COMMUNICATIONS T, P4 MITCHELL W, 1995, CITY BITS SPACE PLAC NAISBITT J, 1982, MEGATRENDS NEGROPONTE N, 1995, BEING DIGITAL OGDEN MR, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P713 PELTON J, 1995, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, V29, P47 PHILLIPS K, TIME, V145, P65 PORAT M, 1977, US DEP COMMERCE SPEC, V7712 POSTMAN N, 1985, AMUSING OURSELVES DE RHEINGOLD H, 1993, VIRTUAL COMMUNITY HO ROSSNEY R, 1994, WHOLE EARTH REV, P2 SCLOVE R, 1995, DEMOCRACY TECHNOLOGY SIEFERT M, 1989, INFORMATION GAP STAPLETON RA, 1992, COMPUTER, V25, P94 STAUDENMAIER J, 1985, TECHNOLOGYS STORYTEL, P165 STIX G, 1993, SCI AM, V261, P100 STOLL C, 1985, SILICON SNAKE OIL 2 SUSSMAN V, 1995, US NEWS WORLD R 0123, V118, P55 TALBOTT S, 1995, FUTURE DOES NOT COMP TEHRANIAN M, 1990, TECHNOLOGIES POWER I TOFFLER A, 1980, 3 WAVE VOLTI R, 1995, SOC TECHNOLOGICAL CH WENK E, 1995, MAKING WAVES ENG POL NR 51 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 119 EP 133 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600003 ER PT J AU Gaitenby, A TI Law's mapping of cyberspace: The shape of new social space SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The proliferation of communication and information technologies is creating new human spaces, virtual places. Like all places, virtual ones are composed of a variety of discourses, law being central to that domain. Different legal conceptualizations, regulations, actors, and practices are components of virtual spaces along with computers and communication lines. MUDs and MOOS (MUDs: Multi User Dungeons; MOOs: Object Oriented MUDs) are new social settings in cyberspace, and are subject to the constitutive forces of such legal paradigms as property, social control, rights, and due process. The shape these spaces take are the direct result of the conflation of differing ideologies and practices surrounding these paradigms. Social spaces are the products of particular ideologies and practices combined in a dynamic relationship that represent ascendant political, legal, and social power. RP Gaitenby, A, UNIV MASSACHUSETTS,202 HAMPSHIRE HOUSE,AMHERST,MA 01003. CR ARISTOTLE, 1968, NICOMACHEAN ETHICS ASHCRAFT N, 1976, PEOPLE SPACE MAKING BARRETT E, 1989, SOC TEXT HYPERTEXT H BENEDIKT M, 1991, CYBERSPACE 1 STEPS BENNAHUM D, 1994, LENGUA FRANCA JUN BRIGHAM J, 1994, LAW CONTEXT, P131 COMAROFF J, 1994, CONTESTED STATES CONLEY J, 1990, RULES V RELATIONSHIP DWORKIN R, 1978, TAKING RIGHTS SERIOU FALKOWSKI J, 1992, INDIAN LAW RACE LAW FINN J, 1991, CONSTITUTION CRISIS GEERTZ C, 1983, LOCAL KNOWLEDGE GIBSON W, 1984, NEUROMANCER HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARRIS W, 1993, INTERPRETABLE CONST HART HLA, 1961, CONCEPT LAW HAY D, 1975, ALBIONS FATAL TREE HUNT A, 1993, EXPLORATIONS LAW SOC NORTON A, 1988, REFLECTIONS POLITICA PAGDEN A, 1993, EUROPEAN ENCOUNTERS POPPER KR, 1972, OBJECTIVE KNOWLEDGE SACK R, 1986, HUMAN TERRITORIALITY SANTOS BD, J LAW SOC, V14, P279 SCHEPPELE K, 1988, LEGAL SECRETS EQUALI THOMPSON EP, 1975, WHIGS HUNTERS ORIGIN WOLCH J, 1989, POWER GEOGRAPHY TERR WOLIN S, 1989, PRESENCE PAST ESSAYS NR 27 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 135 EP 145 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600004 ER PT J AU Halbert, D TI Intellectual property law, technology, and our probable future SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The future for intellectual property law is ripe with possibilities. Even as the U.S. government passes legislation that will make it more difficult to exchange information, technology is rapidly transforming the way we think and use the objects of intellectual property law. This article outlines our probable future if we continue to pass laws that perpetuate our current intellectual property framework. I also offer two possible alternative scenarios that highlight the assumptions made in order to make intellectual property law work. CR 1995, HONOLULU ADVERT 0221, B1 BAUMAN AS, 1995, SEATTLE TIMES 1024, A3 BENNET J, 1993, NY TIMES 0530, V1, P27 BRANSCOMBE AW, 1994, WHO OWNS INFORMATION BRANWYN G, 1992, MONDO 2000, P30 BUSKIRK M, 1992, ART AM, V80, P37 CHURCHILL JI, 1994, INTELLECTUAL PR 0601 COOMBE R, 1992, CARDOZO ARTS ENTERTA, V10, P365 COOMBE RJ, 1991, TEX LAW REV, V69, P1853 CREWS KD, 1993, COPYRIGHT FAIR USE C EARLE E, 1991, INTELLECTUAL PROPERT, V6, P278 FLEMING C, 1995, NEWSWEEK 0116, P64 FOUCAULT M, 1977, LANGUAGE COUNTER MEM, P113 GOLDSTEIN P, 1994, SELECTED STATUTES IN, P100 HAFNER K, 1991, CYBERPUNK OUTLAWS HA HAMILTON JO, 1990, BUSINESS WEEK, V38 HORBULYK TM, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P259 KELLY K, 1994, OUT CONTROL RISE NEO, P55 KIMBRELL A, 1993, HUMAN BODY SHOP ENG LEGUIN UK, 1974, DISPOSSESSED MEYER M, 1995, NEWSWEEK 0206, P36 PATTERSON LR, 1968, COPYRIGHT HIST PERSP PIERCY M, 1976, WOMAN ON EDGE OF TIM ROSE M, 1993, AUTHORS OWNERS INVEN SLONCZEWSKI J, 1986, DOOR OCEAN STEPHENSON N, 1993, SNOW CRASH TOFFLER A, 1990, POWERSHIFT KNOWLEDGE NR 27 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 147 EP 160 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600005 ER PT J AU Inayatullah, S Fitzgerald, J TI Gene discourses: Politics, culture, law, and futures SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In this article, we locate the future of genetic science in a variety of discourses, ranging from those that perceive science as part of the linear march of progress to those that see science as fundamentally violent with regard to its relationship to nature, gender, knowledge, and culture. We articulate how current and future law might deal with potential developments in gene therapy, arguing that for some current law can adequately deal with the genetic revolution, whereas for others law must become more ethically and participant grounded. We describe likely sociopolitical scenarios, from gene acceptance to violent attacks on genetic doctors. We conclude with more speculative scenarios-among them, one in which humans will be remembered less for themselves and more for the new species that will emerge from them. C1 QUEENSLAND ADVOCACY INC,BRISBANE,QLD,AUSTRALIA. RP Inayatullah, S, QUEENSLAND UNIV TECHNOL,COMMUN CTR,GPO BOX 2434,BRISBANE,QLD 4001,AUSTRALIA. CR 1995, BRISBANE COURIE 0204 1995, SUNDAY MAIL 1001, P104 *NIH DOE WORK GROU, 1993, GEN INF HLTH INS REP ANDERSON WT, 1990, GOVERN EVOLUTION ANEES M, 1995, EUBIOS J ASIAN INT B, V5, P36 BAUDRILLARD J, 1994, ILLUSION END BOHRER R, 1994, JUDICIAL FORESIGHT H, P101 CHALMERS D, 1995, 4 NAT MED C JUN 26 2 CLARK R, 1988, LAW TECHNOLOGY DATOR J, 1990, FUTURES, V22, P1084 FITZGERALD J, 1994, INCLUDE ME DISABILIT FOUCAULT M, 1973, ORDER THINGS ARCHAEO FOUCAULT M, 1980, HIST SEXUALITY FOX JL, 1995, BIO-TECHNOL, V13, P544 GOONATILAKE S, 1991, EVOLUTION INFORMATIO HARAWAY D, 1991, SIMIANS CYBORGS WOME HARDING S, 1986, SCI QUESTION FEMINIS HARRY D, 1995, IPR INFO SHEET JAN HUBBARD R, 1993, EXPLODING GENE MYTH INAYATULLAH S, 1991, IFDA DOSSIER, V81, P5 INAYATULLAH S, 1995, PERIODICA ISLAMICA, V5, P2 INAYATULLAH S, 1995, PROSPECTIVA, V3, P4 JARVA V, IN PRESS FUTURES KATSH M, 1995, LAW DIGITAL WORLD KIRBY M, 1993, AUSTR LAW J, V67, P894 KOLATA G, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P319 LOVE R, 1996, PUBLIC UNDERSTAN JAN, P21 MCGREGOR P, 1995, TODAYS TECHNOLOGY GE MCNALLY P, 1987, LAW TECHNOLOGY, V20, P49 MILOJEVIC I, 1996, KNOWLEDGE BASE FUTUR NANDY A, 1987, TRADITIONS TYRANNY U NANDY A, 1990, SCI HEGEMONY VIOLENC NASEEM A, 1995, DAWN EC BUSINESS REV, V3, P11 NEIHARDT J, 1992, BLACK ELK SPEAKS NEWELL C, 1992, AUSTR DISABILITY REV, V2, P73 OCONNOR M, 1995, SUNDAY MAIL 0514, P52 PECK MS, 1993, ROAD LESS TRAVELED SAMARAS T, 1995, FUTURIST JAN, P26 SARKAR PR, 1987, FEW PROBLEMS SOLVE 6 SARKAR PR, 1988, PROUT NUTSHELL 15 SCHNEIDER CE, 1994, HASTINGS CENT REP, V24, P16 SCHULTZ WL, 1993, FUTURES RES Q, V9, P51 SHAPIRO M, 1984, LANGUAGE POLITICS SHARMA D, 1994, PROUT INDIA 0806 SHIVA V, 1990, SCI HEGEMONY VIOLENC SHKLAR J, 1964, LEGALISM LAW MORALS SPANIER B, 1995, IMPARTIAL SCI STONE CD, 1974, SHOULD TREES HAVE ST STRATHERN M, 1995, FUTURES, P423 SUZUKI DT, 1949, INTRO ZEN BUDDHISM TYZZER R, 1993, CULTURAL FUTURES SUM, P47 WALDROP M, 1992, COMPLEXITY NR 52 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 161 EP 183 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600006 ER PT J AU Moore, RH TI Twenty-first century law to meet the challenge of twenty-first century organized crime SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article addresses the complexities of organized crime in the twenty-first century. By looking at current trends and following them to their logical conclusions, the challenges posed to the criminal justice system by organized crime in the twenty-first century are assessed. RP Moore, RH, APPALACHIAN STATE UNIV,DEPT POLIT SCI CRIMINAL JUSTICE,BOONE,NC 28608. CR 1988, BUSINESS SOC REV FAL, P48 1989, ORG CRIME DIGES 0510, P3 1989, ORG CRIME DIGES 0726, P9 1989, ORG CRIME DIGES 0927, P6 1989, ORG CRIME DIGES 1122, P5 1990, ORG CRIME DIGES 1114, P10 1990, ORG CRIME DIGES 1226, P3 1991, ORG CRIME DIGES 1211, P1 1991, ORG CRIME DIGES 1211, P5 1991, ORG CRIME DIGES 1211, P6 1992, KNOXVILLE NEWS 0207 1992, KNOXVILLE NEWS 0329 1992, ORG CRIME DIGES 0226, P1 1992, ORG CRIME DIGES 0715, P1 1992, ORG CRIME DIGES 0923, P6 1992, PARADE MAGAZINE 0913, P14 1992, WASHINGTON POST 0902 1993, ORG CRIME DIGES 0428, P1 1993, ORG CRIME DIGES 0512, P5 1993, ORG CRIME DIGES 0526, P1 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1993, ORG TRANSPL BASSIOUNI MC, 1983, CASE W RESERVE J WIN, P27 BASSIOUNI MC, 1990, DENVER J INT LAW SPR, P311 BASSIOUNI MC, 1990, EMORY INT LAW RE SPR, P9 BASSIOUNI MC, 1991, IND INT COMP L R SPR, P1 BASSIOUNI MC, 1991, NEW YORK U J INT WIN, P445 BASSIOUNI MC, 1991, NOVA L REV, V15, P353 BASSIOUNI MC, 1991, NOVA LAW REV SPR, P373 BASSIOUNI MC, 1992, VANDERBILT J TRANSNA, P151 BEGLEY S, 1993, NEWSWEEK 0222, P49 BENNET J, 1993, KNOXVILLE NEWS 0601, C4 BLACKHURST C, 1988, BUSINESS JUN, P86 BREINING T, 1992, GERMAN TRIBUNE 1113, P13 BROUCHLI MW, 1993, WALL STREET J 0602, A1 CAVICCHIA J, 1992, DICKINSON J INT WIN, P223 CHESTER JA, 1986, INFOSYSTEMS MAR, P40 COLL S, 1992, WASHINGTON POST 1129, A1 DOBBS M, 1992, WASHINGTON POST 1129, A1 DONOVAN CR, 1987, BROOKLYN J INT LAW, V13, P83 DROZDIAK W, 1992, WASHINGTON POST 1005, A12 ENDERS J, 1993, KNOXVILLE NEWS 0704, D3 FARAH D, 1992, WASHINGTON POST 0309, A14 FLANAGAN WG, 1992, FORBES 1221, P184 FRIEDLANDER RA, 1983, CASE W RESERVE J WIN, P13 FUHRMAN P, 1993, FORBES 0510, P96 GLADSTONE R, 1992, JOHNSON CITY PR 0707, P12 GOLDMAN ND, 1992, BUSINESS FORUM SPR, P10 HARVEY P, 1993, JOHNSON CITY PR 0714, P4 HEDGES C, 1993, NY TIMES 0923, A1 HERSHKOWITZ A, 1993, CHARLOTTE OBSER 0620, D1 HOWE RF, 1993, WASHINGTON POST 0523, A1 HUGHES D, 1993, AVIATION WEEK S 0301, P61 KAPLAN JM, 1990, MANAGEMENT ACCOU JUN, P41 KASS LR, 1992, PUBLIC INTEREST SPR, P65 KEATING SK, 1992, WASHINGTON TIME 1112, E1 KWITNY J, 1979, VICIOUS CIRCLES MAFI LOCH KD, 1992, MIS Q JUN, P173 METZLER K, 1992, WASHINGTON TIME 1030, B1 MUELLER GOW, 1983, CASE W RESERVE J WIN, P1 MYERS L, 1991, KNOXVILLE NEWS 0623, D7 PUNCH L, 1992, CREDIT CARD MANA MAR, P98 REAVES G, 1993, CHARLOTTE OBSERV APR, A2 REID TR, 1992, WASHINGTON POST 1005 ROSEN AG, 1991, CREDIT CARD MANA FEB, P82 SHENON P, 1993, NY TIMES 0718, A1 SLOAN L, 1992, NY TIMES 1003, P11 SOLOMAN A, 1993, NY TIMES MAGAZI 0718, P16 STEPHENS G, 1991, FUTURIST APR, P49 STEPHENS G, 1992, FUTURIST NOV, P35 SYKES J, 1992, MANAGEMENT ACCOU FEB, P55 VIR AK, 1988, ENV ACTION NOV, P26 VORHOLZ F, 1992, GERMAN TRIBUNE 1030, P9 WALLACE CP, 1992, LOS ANGELES TIM 0827, A1 WESTLAKE M, 1992, FAR E EC REV 1119, P45 WOODWARD KL, 1993, NEWSWEEK 0222, P52 NR 75 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 185 EP 197 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600007 ER PT J AU White, JD TI The map of the city: Putting an Asian face on crime SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article looks at various examples of how we construct our notions of criminal activity, and how these constructions are in the process of being pushed onto the international scene, particularly in Asia. Two scenarios illustrate how new edifices of global social control may develop. C1 UNIV HAWAII,DEPT POLIT SCI,HONOLULU,HI 96822. CR ECONOMIST 1209, P25 1993, FORUM 0201, P19 1995, ECONOMIST 0826, P36 1995, ECONOMIST 1021, P80 1995, ECONOMIST 1209, P25 1995, FAR E EC REV 0323, P54 1995, HONOLULU ADVERT 1123, A4 1995, NY TIMES 0820, E3 *DEP ATT GEN STAT, 1994, CRIM JUST HAW *GOV JAP NAT POL A, 1994, WHIT PAP POL 1993 EX *US SEN, 1994, AS ORG CRIM NEW INT, P5 AHO J, 1994, THIS THING DARKNESS, P5 ALBANESE J, 1993, CRIME AM BELL W, 1996, SOCIOL PERSPECT, V39, P39 BENNETT G, 1989, CRIMEWARPS FUTURE CR, P14 BOONCHALAKSI W, 1994, PROSTITUTION THAILAN, P106 BROWN R, 1993, INT BUSINESS CHINA, P66 CHAMBLISS WJ, 1975, MAKING LAW STATE LAW CHAMBLISS WJ, 1993, MAKING LAW STATE LAW CHAMBLISS WJ, 1993, MAKING LAW STATE LAW, P309 CROALL H, 1992, WHITE COLLAR CRIME, P73 DANNEN F, 1995, NEW YORKER 0807, P30 DAVIS M, 1992, CITY QUARTZ, P300 DOWER J, 1986, WAR MERCY RACE POWER DUBRO A, 1987, YAKUZA, P95 DUTTON M, 1992, POLICING PUNISHMENT, P348 ENNEW J, 1986, SEXUAL EXPLOITATION EPSTEIN E, 1990, AGENCY FEAR OPIATES, P11 FUJIMOTO T, 1994, SOCIAL JUSTICE, V21, P110 GIBSON W, 1993, WIRED SEP, P51 GIDDENS A, 1985, NATION STATE VIOLENC GREIDER W, 1992, WHO WILL TELL PEOPLE, P258 HAAS M, 1995, INT S AS STUD HONG K HARVEY D, 1993, CONDITION POSTMODERN, P214 HARVEY D, 1993, CONDITION POSTMODERN, P239 HIEBERT M, 1995, FAR E EC REV 0525, P55 INAYATULLAH S, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P191 IYER P, 1989, VIDEO NIGHT KATHMAND, P24 IYER P, 1994, HARPERS SEP, P13 IYER P, 1995, HARPERS AUG KARP J, 1993, FAR E EC REV 1021, P72 KARP J, 1995, FAR E EC REV 0330, P43 LATIF A, 1994, FLOGGING SINGAPORE, P29 LO CWH, 1995, CHINAS LEGAL AWAKENI, P323 LYMAN S, 1978, 7 DEADLY SINS SOC EV, P3 MANICAS P, IN PRESS MARK SOCIAL MCCOY A, 1991, POLITICS HEROIN CIA MCDONALD W, 1995, TRANSNATIONAL ORG CR, V1 MCGREGOR R, 1994, WORLD PRESS REV, V41, P40 MOERAN B, 1985, ANTHR EVIL MORRISCOTTERILL N, 1996, EUROPEAN 0425, P20 NADELMANN E, 1993, COPS BORDERS INT US, P11 ODZER C, 1994, PATPONG SISTERS AM W, P64 PEARCE F, 1992, ISSUES REALIST CRIMI, P93 PHONGPAICHIT P, 1982, PEASANT GIRLS BANGKO, P6 RAZ J, 1994, INT SOC ASS C ROWE W, 1989, HANKOW CONFLICT COMM, P346 SANTE L, 1991, LOW LIFE LURES SNARE, P304 SARDAR Z, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P179 SCHLEGEL K, 1992, WHITE COLLAR CRIME R SESSIONS W, 1990, VITAL SPEECHES DAY, V57, P71 SMITH RE, 1994, CONF PROC TRANSP RES, P53 SNIDER L, 1993, GLOBAL CRIME CONNECT, P226 SONTAG D, 1993, NY TIMES 0613, P42 TRUONG TD, 1990, SEX MONEY MORALITY P, P180 VANDERBILT T, 1995, NATION 0828, P197 WALINSKY A, 1995, ATLANTIC MONTHLY JUL, P39 WOODIWISS M, 1993, GLOBAL CRIME CONNECT, P3 WU W, 1989, CHINESE SOCIOLOGY AN, V22, P76 NR 69 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 199 EP 219 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600008 ER PT J AU McMillan, JE TI Technology trends and the practice of law: An administrative perspective SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper discusses the technologies that are becoming available in the future to assist courts and judges in the administrative and decision-making process. RP McMillan, JE, NATL CTR STATE COURTS,COURT TECHNOL LAB,WILLIAMSBURG,VA 23185. CR KELLY K, 1994, OUT CONTROL RISE NEO, P413 MCMILLAN JE, 1995, COURT TECHNOLOGY B, V7, P3 NR 2 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 221 EP 226 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600009 ER PT J AU Dahlin, DC TI Technology and court administration in the twenty-first century: Hurtling toward? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article begins from the position that technology is a human creation used to help achieve desirable ends. Therefore, to understand technology's impact on court administration (defined as case processing support to judicial decision-making), the ends or values to be realized in court operation must first be specified. Seven case deciding values (impartiality, finality, public participation and oversight, accurately declaring and applying the law, protecting individual rights, being fair and equitable in decisions, and preserving/strengthening political community) are identified along with seven case support values (access, accurate information, equality of treatment, protection of privacy, high quality of operation, efficiency, and accountability). Using this values framework, specific technological options and their possible impacts are analyzed in terms of both the direct and indirect case processing support provided by court administration. In the area of direct case processing support, the approach taken is to follow the flow of a case from the point of thinking about beginning legal action through post-trial proceedings. In the area of indirect case processing support, the focus is on technology's impact on court organizational design and management. RP Dahlin, DC, UNIV S DAKOTA,DEPT POLIT SCI,414 E CLARK ST,VERMILLION,SD 57069. CR *ADM OFF US COURTS, 1991, 1990 ADM OFF US COUR, P133 *CHIEF JUST COMM F, 1992, REINV JUST 2022, P104 *COMM FUT CA COURT, 1993, JUST BAL 2020, P101 HAMILTON A, 1961, FEDERALIST PAPERS, P120 HOLMES OW, 1881, COMMON LAW, P1 KATSH ME, 1989, ELECT MEDIA TRANSFOR, P239 NEGROPONTE N, 1995, BEING DIGITAL, P158 OSTROM BJ, 1994, STATE COURT CASELOAD, P6 SAYLES LR, 1979, LEADERSHIP WHAT EFFE, P126 NR 9 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 227 EP 239 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600010 ER PT J AU Klay, WE Sewell, JD TI Communitarianism and professionalism: A values oriented approach to criminal justice technology SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Democratic communitarian theory, in the context of criminal justice professionalism, provides a normative framework for the development and application of criminal justice technology. The theory says that individual liberty is attainable only in communities that share and perpetuate democratic norms. With a particular emphasis on ''responsible use,'' the theory requires the use of technology to strengthen synergy within the community while exercising restraint in creating and using potentially threatening technologies. Some emergent practice reflects the theory. Facilitative technologies include those that enhance communications, enable people to be treated as individuals, make surveillance minimally intrusive, enable control to be less harmful, improve forensic science to reduce system error, enhance productivity, and empower citizens. Technology assessment is an imperative of responsible use but, ultimately, the theory says that technology cannot substitute for human effort in building democratic communities. C1 FLORIDA DEPT LAW ENFORCEMENT,DIV CRIMINAL JUSTICE INFORMAT SYST,PENSACOLA,FL. RP Klay, WE, FLORIDA STATE UNIV,ASKEW SCH PUBL ADM & POLICY,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. CR 1994, NIJ UPDATE NOV 1994, NIJ UPDATE OCT *ST PET POL DEP, 1994, M CHALL TOM TOD COMM, P26 *VER I, 1995, TECHN VER I JUST BENVENISTE G, 1994, 21 CENTURY ORG BITTNER E, 1995, POLICE SOC DALY M, 1994, COMMUNITARIANISM NEW DRUCKER PF, 1993, POSTCAPITALIST SOC ETZIONI A, 1993, SPIRIT COMMUNITY GREENWOOD E, 1957, SOC WORK, V2, P45 SMITH RM, 1993, RESPONSIVE COMMUNITY, V3, P14 NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 241 EP 253 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600011 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Law and technology in the twenty-first century SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Several areas of technological development will create new issues, as well as opportunities, for the legal system in the next century. Most prominent among these are information technology, genetics, energy, materials, brain science, and the social sciences. In addition, environmentalism will be a broad sweep across all scientific and technological developments. The globalization of all economies will raise international legal concerns to unprecedented levels of importance. In the shorter term, information technology and the social sciences have particularly prominent capabilities to influence the efficiency and the effectiveness of the legal system. The main barrier to an improved more effective and socially more beneficial body of law and legal system is the system itself. An iron triangle of relationships among the courts, legislatures, and practicing lawyers drives strongly toward structured, built-in inefficiency and ineffectiveness because it is in the professional and unequivocal economic interest of the lawyers involved in all those functions to maintain an inefficient system. A dozen remedies are proposed which, if acted on, would move the law and the legal profession to new levels of a positive contribution to American and global society. C1 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20052. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 255 EP 268 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600012 ER PT J AU Glenn, JC Gordon, TJ TI Update on the ... Millennium Project SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University is described as a global capacity for early warning and analysis of long-range issues and strategies originating from a recently completed three-year feasibility study funded by the US EPA, UNDP, and UNESCO. The Project's first years are explained, planning committee members are listed with institutional affiliations, and Internet access is given for participation. RP Glenn, JC, UNITED NAT UNIV,MILLENIUM PROJECT,4421 GARRISON ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN-JUL PY 1996 VL 52 IS 2-3 BP 269 EP 272 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UZ036 UT ISI:A1996UZ03600013 ER PT J AU Marchetti, C Meyer, PS Ausubel, JH TI Human population dynamics revisited with the logistic model: How much can be modeled and predicted? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Decrease or growth of population comes from the interplay of death and birth (and locally, migration). We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth), the key factors totaling population. For death, once an individual has legally entered society, the logistic portrays the situation crisply. Human life expectancy is reaching the culmination of a two-hundred year-process that forestalls death until about SO for men and the mid-80's for women. No breakthroughs in longevity are in sight unless genetic engineering comes to help. For birth, the logistic covers quantitatively its actual morphology. However, because we have not been able to model this essential parameter in a predictive way over long periods, we cannot say whether the future of human population is runaway growth or slow implosion. Thus, we revisit the logistic analysis of aggregate human numbers. From a niche point of view, resources are the limits to numbers, and access to resources depends on technologies. The logistic makes clear that for homo faber, the limits to numbers keep shifting. These moving edges may most confound forecasting the long-run size of humanity. C1 ROCKEFELLER UNIV,PROGRAM HUMAN ENVIRONM,NEW YORK,NY 10021. INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2631 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR 1986, NATURE, V324, P202 *CONS EUR, 1990, ETUDES DEMOGRAPHIQUE, V21 *TSUN YAN MEM SOC, NIPPON CHART SURV JA *UN, 1952, UN DEM YB *UN, 1988, 1986 DEM YB SPEC TOP *UN, 1992, LONG RANG WORLD POP *UN, 1993, WORLD POP PROSP 1992 *UN, 1994, 1992 DEM YB 48 ISS S *US BUR CENS, 1975, HIST STAT US COL TIM *US BUR CENS, 1994, 1994 STAT ABSTR US AHN N, 1995, REV ECON STUD, V62, P361 BANKS RB, 1994, GROWTH DIFFUSION PHE COHEN JE, 1995, HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN DARWIN C, 1859, ORIGIN SPECIES DICKEMANN M, 1979, EVOLUTIONARY BIOL HU, P328 EIGEN M, 1971, NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN, V10 FLORA P, 1983, STATE EC SOC W EUR 1 GALLOWAY PR, 1988, POPULATION STUDIES, V42, P275 GRUEBLER A, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI HARRIS M, 1987, DEATH SEX FERTILITY HAUSFATER G, 1984, INFANTICIDE COMP EVO HIRSCHMAN C, 1994, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V20, P203 IMHOFF AE, 1981, GEWONNEN JAHRE ZUNAH, P53 KEYFITZ N, 1971, POPULATION FACTS MET KEYFITZ N, 1981, WP81101 IIASA KEYFITZ N, 1982, WP8239 IIASA KINGSLAND S, 1982, Q REV BIOL, V57, P29 LEE RD, 1994, J AM STAT ASSOC, V89, P1175 LEPLAY F, 1864, REFORME SOCIALE FRAN, CH2 LOTKA AJ, 1956, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI LUTZ W, 1987, FINNISH FERTILITY 17 LUTZ W, 1994, FUTURE POPULATION WO MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARCHETTI C, 1988, WINDOWS CREATIVITY I, P25 MCEVEDY C, 1985, ATLAS WORLD POPULATI MEADE N, 1995, INT J FORECASTING, V11, P199 MERRICK TW, 1991, POPULATION B, V41 MEYER P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P89 MITCHELL BR, 1981, EUROPEAN HIST STATIS MUHURI PK, 1994, DEMOGRAPHIC HLTH SUR, V13 PETERSEN W, 1969, POPULATION, P333 PRESSAT R, 1985, DICT DEMOGRAPHY PUTNAM PC, 1953, ENERGY FUTURE RIDDLE JM, 1992, CONTRACEPTION ABORTI ROSE L, 1986, MASSACRE INNOCENTS I SMITH D, 1977, MATH DEMOGRAPHY SELE, P333 TAUEBER IB, 1958, POPULATION HIST JAPA VONFOERSTER H, 1960, SCIENCE, V132, P1291 WRIGLEY EA, 1981, POPULATION HIST YASHIN AI, 1995, MECH AGEING DEV, V80, P147 NR 50 TC 16 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 52 IS 1 BP 1 EP 30 PG 30 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UL156 UT ISI:A1996UL15600001 ER PT J AU Kwasnicki, W Kwasnicka, H TI Long-term diffusion factors of technological development: An evolutionary model and case study SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SUBSTITUTION; DYNAMICS AB In the first part of this article, a short description of the most popular models of two competing technologies, the Fisher-Pry model and its modifications proposed in [1, 2, 20], and the multitechnological substitution models in [16, 18], are presented. In the second section, we describe an evolutionary model of diffusion processes based on biological analogy, together with the method of its parameters' identification using real data on technologies development. In the final sections, the applications of that model to describe the real diffusion processes (namely, primary energy sources in the world energy consumption and the raw steel production in the United States) are presented. The feasibility of using the model to predict future shares of given technologies and to build alternative scenarios of future evolution of structure of the market is suggested. C1 MICHIGAN TECHNOL UNIV,SCH BUSINESS & ENGN ADM,HOUGHTON,MI 49931. RP Kwasnicki, W, WROCLAW TECH UNIV,INST ENGN CYBERNET,WYB WYSPIANSKIEGO 27,PL-50370 WROCLAW,POLAND. CR BLACKMAN AW, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V5, P25 BRIGHT JR, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA EIGEN M, 1971, NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN, V58, P465 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GALAR R, 1980, SIMULATION SYSTEMS 7 GRUBLER A, 1990, LIFE CYCLES LONG WAV, P117 GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC KWASNICKA H, 1976, THESIS TU WROCLAW PO KWASNICKA H, 1979, THESIS TU WROCLAW PO KWASNICKA H, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P41 KWASNICKI W, 1979, THESIS TU WROCLAW PO KWASNICKI W, 1992, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V19, P343 KWASNICKI W, 1994, KNOWLEDGE INNOVATION LINSTONE HA, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 IIASA NAKICENOVIC N, 1987, LECT NOTES EC MATH S, V340, P147 PETERKA V, 1978, AR781C INT I APPL SY, V2 RYAN B, 1943, RURAL SOCIOL, V8, P15 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P89 NR 20 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 52 IS 1 BP 31 EP 57 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UL156 UT ISI:A1996UL15600002 ER PT J AU Gagnon, YC Toulouse, JM TI The behavior of business managers when adopting new technologies SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS; STRATEGY AB The use of technology in business is no longer a matter of choice, but rather one of survival. It is, therefore, a feature of most successful operations. Hence, a better understanding of the process of adopting new technologies is both essential and urgent. Past studies emphasize the major influence of management behavior on the initiation and development of the process of adopting new technologies. Professor Howard Stevenson suggests a descriptive model of the behavior of managers. This model comprises five dimensions on a continuum with the characteristics of administrator behavior at one extreme and those of entrepreneurial behavior at the other. Using the case study method, we proceeded to observe the complete development of 11 new technology adoption processes in the same number of small- and medium-sized manufacturing firms with between 50 and 249 employees. In 10 out of the 11 cases observed, the manager behaved as an entrepreneur in the technology adoption process. Our research confirms that the advice given to foster the introduction of technologies and to manage the adoption process is adequate in the case of decision-makers who behave like administrators. Those who behave as entrepreneurs, the large majority, will never follow such advice. C1 ECOLE HAUTES ETUD COMMERCIALES,MONTREAL,PQ,CANADA. RP Gagnon, YC, UNIV QUEBEC,ECOLE NATL ADM PUBL,1001 RUE SHERBROOKE EST,SUITE 300,MONTREAL,PQ H2L 4Z1,CANADA. CR *ASS CAO FAO, TEND DEGR PEN AUT IN BEATTY CA, 1988, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V29, P25 BELANGER R, 1991, PROCESSUS INNOVATION BERNIER Y, 1991, MONDIALISATION MARCH BIRNBAUM PH, 1985, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V6, P135 CLARK P, 1988, ORG TRANSITIONS INNO DAMBOISE G, 1986, PROCESS IMPLEMENTING DEAN JW, 1987, NEW TECHNOLOGY ORG I, P35 DESCHAMPS I, 1989, GESTION, V14, P94 DILILLO AA, 1989, DEVOIR EC, V5, P6 EISENHARDT KM, 1988, ACAD MANAGE J, V31, P737 GAGNON YC, 1990, REV PMO, V5, P62 GAGNON YC, 1993, TECHNOVATION, V13, P411 GASSE Y, 1983, REV INT GESTION, V8, P27 GUPTA YP, 1988, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V16, P383 HARVEY J, 1987, GESTION, V12, P25 HAYES RH, 1980, HARVARD BUS REV, V58, P67 HIRSCHEIM RA, 1985, OFFICE AUTOMATION SO HORWITCH M, 1986, TECHNOLOGY MODERN CO HOWARD R, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P88 LECOMPTE MD, 1982, REV EDUC RES, V52, P31 LEDERER AL, 1988, BUS HORIZONS, V31, P73 LEFEBVRE E, 1991, GESTION, V16, P32 LEFEBVRE LA, 1991, REV CANADIENNE SCI A, V8, P19 LINSTONE HA, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P275 LITVAK IA, 1987, BUSINESS Q, V52, P14 MAIDIQUE MA, 1982, READINGS MANAGEMENT, P273 MCNEIL RW, 1987, BUSINESS Q, V52, P40 MEREDITH JR, 1987, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V28, P49 MINTZBERG H, 1973, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V16, P44 MINTZBERG H, 1982, ACAD MANAGE J, V25, P465 MINTZBERG H, 1987, CALIF MANAGE REV, V30, P11 MINTZBERG H, 1994, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P107 MOWSHOWITZ A, 1908, TECHNOVATION, V9, P623 MUNRO H, 1988, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V35, P63 OLSON PD, 1985, AM J SMALL BUSINESS, V10, P25 PARKINSON ST, 1986, HUM SYST MANAGE, V6, P243 PINCHOT G, 1985, INTRAPRENEURING WHY PIORE MJ, 1984, 2 IND DIVIDE PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY QUINN JB, 1982, READING MANAGEMENT I, P549 RAYMOND L, 1987, J SMALL BUSINESS CAN, V2, P36 RAYMOND L, 1990, TECHNOLOGIES INFORMA, V3, P131 RIVARD S, 1987, GESTION, V12, P6 ROSS J, 1987, BUS HORIZONS, V30, P76 STEVENSON HH, 1983, ENTREPRENEURSHIP WHA, P30 STEVENSON HH, 1984, 9384131 HARV BUS SCH STEVENSON HH, 1986, ENTREPRENEURSHIP RES TOULOUSE JM, 1988, GESTION, V13, P12 WEISS A, MANAGE SCI, V35, P1014 YIN RK, 1981, ADM SCI Q, V26, P58 YIN RK, 1981, KNOWLEDGE CREATION D, V3, P97 YIN RK, 1984, CASE STUDY RES DESIG NR 53 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 52 IS 1 BP 59 EP 74 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UL156 UT ISI:A1996UL15600003 ER PT J AU Lim, YT Song, CH TI An international comparative study of basic scientific research capacity: OECD countries, Taiwan and Korea SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article presents an econometric model relating to the technological develop ment problem of a technologically less developed country, by which its basic scientific research capacity (BSRC) and the gap in terms of time lag can be measured and forecasted in connection with factor analysis and the estimated BSRC progress function. Based on the analysis, the coauthors recommend some technology policies designed to promote total factor productivity as well as the international competitiveness of Korea. There is an emphasis on the importance of research activities of universities in basic science, which yield a synergy effect with domestic innovation in the dynamic process of assimilation, absorption, improvement, and indigenization of the technologies imported from technologically advanced countries, especially in the era of ''technological war.'' RP Lim, YT, HANYANG UNIV,DEPT ECON,SUNGDONG KU,HAENGDANG DONG 17,SEOUL 133,SOUTH KOREA. CR *JAP SCI TECHN POL, 1994, DEV R D PURCH POW PA *KOR ADV I SCI TEC, 1986, STUDY EVALUATION TEC, V1 *KOR EXCH BANK, 1993, EXCH BANK MONTHL *MIN SCI TECHN REP, REP SURV RES DEV S T *NSF, 1993, HUM RES SCI TECHN AS *OECD, 1987, MAIN EC IND *OECD, 1992, EC OUTL *OECD, 1994, MAIN SCI TECHN IND BLACKMAN AW, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P4 FREEMAN C, 1982, RECENT DEV SCI TECHN LIM YT, 1986, STUDY KOREAS TECHNOL LIM YT, 1989, HANYANG J EC STUDIES, V10 LIM YT, 1991, HANYANG J EC STUDIES, V12 LIM YT, 1994, EC DEV TECHNOLOGICAL PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P16 SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P29 SONG CH, 1993, 9 KOR SCI ENG F NR 18 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 52 IS 1 BP 75 EP 94 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UL156 UT ISI:A1996UL15600004 ER PT J AU Ayres, RU Axtell, R TI Foresight as a survival characteristic: When (if ever) does the long view pay? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Long-range R&D and capital investment projects are normally evaluated by means of a procedure (cost-benefit analysis) that involves a choice of time preference functions. Cost-benefit analysts and many economists typically assume that time preference is a behavioral fact of life and that the time preference function is essentially equivalent to a compound interest law. In practice, they tend to choose discount rates in the range of 3% to 8% per annum in real terms. Variability in projected cost-benefit ratios resulting from this uncertainty is commonly dealt with ad hoc, e.g., by simply presenting results for several different discount rates and letting the decision-maker select among them. It is argued in this study that the basic discounting methodology is fundamentally flawed and can lead to significantly inferior social choices, i.e., choices that would be rejected by virtually any rational actor to whom the choice was fairly presented. A more general methodology is needed. Examples from several realms, including energy policy and environmental protection, are discussed to illustrate the thesis. C1 BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. RP Ayres, RU, INSEAD,CTR MANAGEMENT ENVIRONM RESOURCES,BLVD CONSTANCE,F-77305 FONTAINEBLEAU,FRANCE. CR ARROW KJ, 1954, ECONOMETRICA, V22 ARROW KJ, 1971, GENERAL COMPETITIVE ARROW KJ, 1976, RATE PUBLIC INVEST ARTHUR WB, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P590 AUBIN JP, 1981, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V2, P95 AYRES RU, 1987, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V14, P337 AYRES RU, 1987, RR873 INT I APPL SYS AYRES RU, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P49 AYRES RW, 1990, WP9018 INT I APPL SY BLACKMAN AW, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V5, P25 CUNNINGHAM JA, 1980, IEEE SPECTRUM JUN DALY HE, 1990, ECOL ECON, V2, P1 DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1979, SO EC J 0404 HANKE SH, 1980, PUBLIC POLICY, V28 HAUSMAN JA, 1979, BELL J ECON, V10, P33 HEERTJE A, 1983, TROUBLE TECHNOLOGY E HERRNSTEIN RJ, 1987, SCIENCES NOV HOTELLING H, 1931, J POLITICAL EC, V39, P137 MEULBROEK LK, 1990, J POLIT ECON, V98, P1108 NELSON RR, 1978, BELL J ECON, V9, P524 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PAGE T, 1977, CONSERVATION EC EFFI PEZZEY J, 1989, 15 WORLD BANK ENV DE PEZZEY J, 1989, 897 U COL DEP EC PIGOU AC, 1920, EC WELFARE RAMSEY FP, 1928, ECON J, V38, P543 ROSENBERG N, 1972, TECHNOLOGY AM EC GRO ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SIMON HA, 1955, Q J ECON, V69, P99 SIMON HA, 1959, AM ECON REV, V49, P253 SMALE S, 1976, AM ECON REV, V66, P288 NR 33 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 51 IS 3 BP 209 EP 235 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UB373 UT ISI:A1996UB37300001 ER PT J AU Grubler, A Jefferson, M Nakicenovic, N TI Global energy perspectives: A summary of the joint study by the international institute for applied systems analysis and world energy council SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article reports a study on Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). All together three cases of economic and energy developments were developed that sprawl into six scenarios of energy supply alternatives extending until the end of the 21st century. The internal consistency of the scenarios was assessed with the help of formal energy models. The study took close account of world population prospects, economic growth, technological advance, the energy resource base, environmental implications from the local to the global level, financing requirements, and the future prospects of both fossil and nonfossil fuels and industries. Although no analysis can turn an uncertain future into a sure thing, the study identifies patterns that are robust across a purposely broad range of scenarios. The study also enables to relate alternative near-term research and development, technology, economic, and environmental policies to the possible long-term divergence of energy systems structures. Due to the long lead times involved in the turnover of capital stock and infrastructures of the energy system, policies would need to be implemented now in order to initiate long-term structural changes in the energy system that would, however, become significant only after the year 2020. C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL,LONDON,ENGLAND. CR *INT I APPL SYST A, 1995, GLOB EN PERSP 2050 *TAT EN RES I, 1994, TERI EN DAT DIR YB *UN, 1993, MEDSDTA1MSPABK93 UN *UN, 1994, WORLD URB PROSP 1992 *WORLD EN COUNC, 1993, EN TOM WORLD REAL RE *WORLD EN COUNC, 1994, NEW REN EN RES GUID ALCAMO J, 1990, RAINS MODEL ACIDIFIC ALCAMO J, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994, P247 AMANN M, 1995, IMPACTS ENERGY SCENA BERRY BJL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P103 BOS E, 1992, WORLD POPULATION PRO FISCHER G, 1988, LINKED NATL MODELS T FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 GRITSEVSKII A, IN PRESS SCENARIO GE MADDISON A, 1989, WORLD EC 20 CENTURY MANNE A, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN MARTIN JM, 1988, ECON SOCIETES, V4, P9 MESSNER S, 1994, ADV SYSTEMS ANAL MOD, P29 MESSNER S, 1995, WP9569 INT I APPL SY NAKICENOVIC N, 1987, LONG WAVE DEBATE, P76 PEPPER W, 1995, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS WENE CO, 1995, WP9542 INT I APPL SY WIGLEY TML, 1994, MODEL ASSESSMENT GRE NR 23 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 51 IS 3 BP 237 EP 264 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UB373 UT ISI:A1996UB37300002 ER PT J AU Putsis, WP TI Temporal aggregation in diffusion models of first-time purchase: Does choice of frequency matter? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION DIFFUSION; PRODUCT; SALES AB Consistent with work in the advertising response literature, the author addresses the time-interval bias present when estimating innovation models of new product growth and diffusion with discrete time-series data. Specifically, the author explores the theoretical and empirical implications of using varying data frequencies when estimating diffusion models using both nonlinear least squares (NLLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS). Parameter estimates across five consumer durables are obtained using annual, quarterly, and monthly data. The central conclusion is that the information gained and bias minimized by using seasonally adjusted quarterly data results in empirical estimates that are an improvement over those obtained by using annual data. This is true for both the NLLS and OLS estimates. In contrast, the move from quarterly to monthly data produces only marginal statistical improvement. RP Putsis, WP, YALE UNIV,YALE SCH MANAGEMENT,BOX 208200,NEW HAVEN,CT 06520. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BASS FM, 1983, MANAGE SCI, V29, P1 BASS FM, 1986, J MARKETING RES, V23, P291 CLARKE DG, 1976, J MARKETING RES, V13, P345 DODSON JA, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1568 EASINGWOOD CJ, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P273 FOURT LA, 1960, J MARKETING, V25, P31 GRANGER CWJ, 1977, FORECASTING EC TIME HANSSENS D, 1990, MARKET RESPONSE MODE HELLER RM, MANAGE SCI, V26, P1007 HORSKY D, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P1 KAMAKURA WA, 1987, J FORECASTING, V6, P1 LEONE RP, 1995, MARKET SCI, V14, P141 MAHAJAN V, 1979, J MARKETING, V43, P55 MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 NEVERS JV, 1972, SLOAN MANAGEMENT WIN, P77 ROBINSON B, 1975, MANAGE SCI, V12, P1113 SCHMITTLEIN D, 1982, MARKET SCI, V1, P57 SIMS CA, 1974, J AM STAT ASSOC, V69, P618 SRINIVASAN V, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P169 SULTAN F, 1990, J MARKETING RES, V27, P70 TIGERT D, 1981, J MARKETING, V45, P81 VANHONACKER WR, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P297 VANHONACKER WR, 1984, J MARKETING RES, V21, P445 WEISS DL, J MARKETING RES, V20, P268 WINER RS, J BUS, V52, P563 NR 27 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 51 IS 3 BP 265 EP 279 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UB373 UT ISI:A1996UB37300003 ER PT J AU Berry, BJL Elliott, E Harpham, EJ TI The yield curve as an electoral bellwether SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES HOUSE; PRESIDENTIAL VOTE; ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS; POPULARITY; ELECTIONS; INFLATION; POLICY AB Taking advantage of recent thinking about leading economic indicators, an electoral outcome model is constructed that allows for much earlier prediction than found in current models. The model is built in three stages. First, electoral outcome is expressed as a function of economic performance and voter approval in the manner of current forecasting models, although a different measure of economic performance is used. Second, economic performance and voter approval are modeled as functions of new economic bellwethers. Third, the products of steps one and two are combined in a simultaneous equation system that captures the indirect effects of the bellwethers on electoral outcome, permitting year-ahead forecasts of presidential elections that accurately predict outcomes except when random exogenous events such as the Kennedy assassination intervene. RP Berry, BJL, UNIV TEXAS,SCH SOCIAL SCI,POB 83-0688,RICHARDSON,TX 75083. CR ABRAMOWITZ AI, 1988, P S, V21, P843 ASHER H, 1988, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIO BALKE NS, 1994, ECON REV, P1 BEAN L, 1948, PREDICT ELECTIONS BEAN L, 1972, PREDICT 1972 ELECTIO BECK N, 1992, PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE, V3, P32 BERNANKE BS, 1990, NEW ENGLAND EC R NOV, P5 BERNANKE BS, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P901 BERRY BJL, 1994, BUSINESS CONT WORLD, V6, P122 BERRY BJL, 1995, PAP REG SCI, V74, P153 BROWN C, 1993, AM J POLIT SCI, V37, P582 CAMPBELL JE, 1990, AM POLIT QUART, V18, P251 CAMPBELL JE, 1992, AM J POLIT SCI, V36, P386 CLARKE HD, 1989, EUROPEAN J POLITICAL, V5, P551 CLARKE HD, 1992, CONTROVERSIES POLITI CLARKE HD, 1994, AM J POLIT SCI, V38, P1104 CLARKE HD, 1994, BRIT J POLIT SCI, V24, P535 ERIKSON RS, 1989, AM POLIT SCI REV, V83, P567 ESTRELLA A, 1991, J FINANC, V46, P555 FAIR R, 1982, REV ECON STAT, V64, P322 FAIR RC, 1978, REV ECON STAT, V60, P159 FAIR RC, 1988, POLITICAL BEHAVIOR, V10, P168 FIORINA MP, 1981, RETROSPECTIVE YOUNG HAYNES SE, 1994, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V12, P123 HIBBS DA, 1977, AM POLIT SCI REV, V71, P1467 HIBBS DA, 1982, AM POLITICS Q, V10, P387 HIBBS DA, 1983, AM POLIT SCI REV, V77, P135 HIBBS DA, 1987, AM POLITICAL EC JOHNSON MH, 1988, CATO J, V8, P253 KELLEY S, 1983, INTERPRETING ELECTIO KIEWIET DR, 1983, MACROECONOMICS MICRO LEWISBECK M, 1982, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V46, P534 LEWISBECK MS, 1984, LEGIS STUD QUART, V9, P475 LEWISBECK MS, 1984, POLITICAL BEHAVIOR, V6, P9 LEWISBECK MS, 1987, PUBLIC OPINION MAR, P57 LEWISBECK MS, 1988, EC ELECTIONS LEWISBECK MS, 1992, FORECASTING ELECTION MACKUEN MB, 1983, AM J POLIT SCI, V27, P165 MARRA RF, 1989, AM J POLIT SCI, V33, P541 MONROE K, 1984, PRESIDENTIAL POPULAR NORPOTH H, 1995, PS, V28, P201 NORRIS F, 1994, NY TIMES 1201, C1 NORRIS F, 1994, NY TIMES 1201, C12 QUINN DP, 1991, AM J POLIT SCI, V35, P656 RICHARDS DJ, 1993, NEW ENGL ECON REV, P33 SUNDQUIST J, 1983, DYNAMICS PARTY SYSTE TUFTE ER, 1975, AM POLIT SCI REV, V69, P812 TUFTE ER, 1978, POLITICAL CONTROL EC WATTENBERG M, 1991, RISE CANDIDATE CTR P WHITELEY P, 1984, ELECT STUD, V3, P3 WHITELEY P, 1988, POLITICAL BEHAV, V10, P293 NR 51 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 51 IS 3 BP 281 EP 294 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA UB373 UT ISI:A1996UB37300004 ER PT J AU Mahajan, V Muller, E TI Timing, diffusion, and substitution of successive generations of technological innovations: The IBM mainframe case SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MODEL; ADOPTION; PRODUCTS; ENTRY AB Based on the behavioral assumptions of diffusion theory, this article proposes an extension of the Bass diffusion model that simultaneously captures the substitution pattern for each successive generation of a durable technological innovation, and the diffusion pattern of the base technology. Normative guidelines based on the model suggest that a firm should either introduce a new generation as soon as it is available or delay its introduction to a much later date at the maturity stage of the preceding generation. The decision depends on a number of factors including the relative size of the market potentials, gross profit margins, the diffusion and substitution parameters, and the discount factor of the firm. This ''now or at maturity'' rule is thus an extension and generalization of the ''now or never'' rule of Wilson and Norton [25]. Empirical and normative implications of the proposed model are explored for four successive generations on IBM mainframe computers: first generation (vacuum tubes); second generation (transistors); 360 family (integrated circuits); and 370 family (silicon chips). The model describes the growth of these generations well. The application of normative guidelines suggests that IBM introduced the two successive generations of 360 and 370 families too late, i.e., their time to market should have been shorter. Limitations and further extensions of the model and the application are discussed. C1 TEL AVIV UNIV,LEON RECANATI GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,IL-69978 TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. UNIV TEXAS,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,JOHN P HARBIN CENTENNIAL CHAIR BUSINESS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BAYUS BL, 1993, MANAGE SCI, V39, P1319 BROCK GW, 1975, US COMPUTER IND STUD DORFMAN NS, 1987, INNOVATION MARKET ST FERGUSON CH, 1993, COMPUTER WARS FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 JAIN D, 1990, J BUS ECON STATIST, V2, P163 KALISH S, 1985, MANAGE SCI, V31, P1569 KATZ B, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROCE LAWRENCE KD, 1981, NEW PRODUCT FORECAST LEVY H, 1982, CAPITAL INVESTMENT F LILIEN GL, 1990, MANAGE SCI, V36, P568 LINSTONE HA, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MAHAJAN V, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P331 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MODIS T, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P157 NORTON JA, 1982, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V33, P66 NORTON JA, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1069 PHISTER M, 1976, DATA PROCESSING TECH PUTSIS WP, 1993, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V10, P195 SULTAN F, 1990, J MARKETING RES, V27, P70 URBAN GL, 1993, DESIGN MARKETING NEW WATSON TJ, 1990, FATHER SON CO MY LIF WILSON LO, 1989, MARKET SCI, V8, P1 NR 25 TC 23 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 51 IS 2 BP 109 EP 132 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TT208 UT ISI:A1996TT20800001 ER PT J AU Roessner, JD Porter, AL Newman, N Cauffiel, D TI Anticipating the future high-tech competitiveness of nations: Indicators for twenty-eight countries SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article presents some of the major results obtained during the third phase of a continuing research effort to develop and implement national indicators of competitiveness in high technology industries. The first phase, begun in 1987, developed a conceptual model of the processes by which industrializing nations gain access to external technology and technical information, absorb that technology/information effectively, and institutionalize a science-based development and manufacturing capability leading to export-led growth in high technology products. Four ''input'' or leading indicators of a nation's future capacity (15-year time horizons) to compete in international markets in high technology products were developed, as were three ''output'' indicators of a nation's current international competitiveness. During this first phase, the seven indicators were applied to data for twenty countries representing a range of regions and extent of industrialization. The second phase used 1990 data on an expanded set of countries to examine in detail the indicators' reliability and validity. The third phase of indicators work (1992-1995): (1) developed seven indicators whose definitions were recommended in our 1991 final report to the Science Indicators Unit of the National Science Foundation, and (2) collected the necessary data (1993) and applied them to generate a set of indicators for 28 countries using these recommended formulations. This article focuses on the input indicators for the 28 countries and compares these 1993 results with those from 1990. We discuss the implications of these results for technology-based development theory and for development policy. A separate, companion article published elsewhere presents the output indicator results. C1 GEORGIA INST TECHNOL,ISYE PHD PROGRAM,ATLANTA,GA 30332. CR *NAT SCI BOARD, 1993, SCI ENG IND 1993 *OECD, 1992, TECHN EC KEY REL *UN, STAT YB *WORLD BANK, WORLD DEV REP ABBOTT TA, 1991, J ECON SOC MEAS, V17, P17 ELSEVIER, 1992, YB WORLD ELECTRONICS, V1 ELSEVIER, 1992, YB WORLD ELECTRONICS, V2 ELSEVIER, 1992, YB WORLD ELECTRONICS, V4 GUERRIERI P, 1991, 49 BERK ROUNDT INT E KUEHN TJ, 1988, GLOBAL CHALLENGE HIG NEWMAN N, 1995, COMP ANAL DEV PATHS PORTER AL, 1988, APR MAN INT 88 C ATL PORTER AL, 1991, INDICATORS NATIONAL PORTER AL, 1991, PORTLAND INT C MANAG PORTER AL, 1995, UNPUB INDICATORS HIG PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG ROESSNER JD, 1988, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN, V1 ROESSNER JD, 1990, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER ROESSNER JD, 1992, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V4, P99 ROESSNER JD, 1994, AAAS SCI TECHNOLOGY ROESSNER JD, 1995, IMPLEMENTATION FURTH ROSENBERG N, 1992, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA NR 22 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 51 IS 2 BP 133 EP 149 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TT208 UT ISI:A1996TT20800002 ER PT J AU Tishler, A Dvir, D Shenhar, A Lipovetsky, S TI Identifying critical success factors in defense development projects: A multivariate analysis SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID IMPLEMENTATION; MANAGEMENT AB The main goal of this article is to identify managerial variables that are critical to the success of defense projects. This study analyzes 110 defense projects executed in Israel over the last 20 years. Some 400 managerial variables were collected, and 20 measures of success derived for each project. Multivariate analysis is employed to account simultaneously for the diverse attributes of projects' success. The major results of this study are: (1) in the military environment, the more urgent is the perceived need for the project's output, the greater is the project's chance to succeed; (2) the customer follow-up team has a major role in determining project success - especially important are the team members' professional qualifications and sense of responsibility for project success and the stability of key personnel; (3) defense projects are often technologically challenging; proven technological feasibility at the start of a project is critical to its success; (4) attention to design considerations (produceability, quality, reliability, and design to cost) in the early phases of development are critical to project success; and (5) the professional qualifications and team spirit of the development team are highly correlated with success. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,CTR DEV TECHNOL LEADERSHIP,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Tishler, A, TEL AVIV UNIV,FAC MANAGEMENT,IL-69778 TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. CR *US GEN ACC OFF, 1989, IMTEC8936 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1990, DEF ACQ FLEET BALL M AHITUV N, 1994, 1194 TEL AV U FAC MA ANDERSON TW, 1974, INTRO MULTIVARIATE S BAKER BN, 1988, PROJECT MANAGEMENT H CLIFF N, 1987, ANAL MULTIVARIATE DA COOPER RG, 1987, IND MARKET MANAG, V16, P215 COOPER RG, 1987, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V4, P169 DILLON WR, 1984, MULTIVARIATE ANAL ME DVIR D, 1992, ENG MANAGEMENT J, V4, P33 DVIR D, 1994, 694 TEL AV U FAC MAN FONDA A, 1987, COMMENT MATH U CAROL, V28, P33 FREEMAN M, 1992, PROJECT MANAGEMENT J, V23, P8 LIPOVETSKY S, 1994, 3394 TEL AV U FAC MA LIPOVETSKY S, 1994, COMPUT OPER RES, V21, P169 MIGHT RJ, 1985, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V32, P71 MORRIS PWJ, 1987, ANATOMY MAJOR PROJEC PINTO JK, 1987, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V34, P22 PINTO JK, 1988, PROJECT MANAGEMENT J, V19, P67 PINTO JK, 1989, TECHNOVATION, V9, P49 PINTO JK, 1990, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V37, P269 RAO CR, 1973, LINEAR STATISTIAL IN SHENHAR AJ, 1993, R&D MANAGE, V23, P199 SHENHAR AJ, 1994, 4TH P INT C MAN TECH SHERWIN CW, 1967, SCIENCE JUN, P1571 SLEVIN DP, 1986, PROJECT MANAGEMENT J, V17, P57 SNYDER JR, 1987, PROJECT MANAGEMENT J, V28, P28 TISHLER A, 1993, 3293 TEL AV U FAC MA TISHLER A, 1993, 4793 TEL AV U FAC MA TUBIG SB, 1990, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V37, P22 NR 30 TC 12 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 51 IS 2 BP 151 EP 171 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TT208 UT ISI:A1996TT20800003 ER PT J AU McCutchen, WW Swamidass, PM TI Exploring larger biotech research firm strategies: Projections from a comparison of small and larger firms SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE AB This is an exploratory study of larger biotech firms using insights from a head-to-head comparison of 49 small and 17 large U.S. biotech firms using archival data. We found small and large biotech firms to be significantly different from each other on R&D intensity and funding strategies. The findings are used to project and hypothesize about larger biotech firm growth strategies. Whereas R&D expenses in the small firms exceed total income by a wide margin, larger firms are able to cover most, if not all, of their R&D expenses. Thus, the larger firms are relatively more financially viable. Results also show that the larger firms derive a greater proportion of their revenues from collaborative research agreements (CRAs), which has key implications for revenue growth in these firms. Based on the findings we project R&D expenses and collaborative research revenues for biotech firms as they grow in size. C1 AUBURN UNIV,THOMAS WALTER CTR TECHNOL MANAGEMENT,AUBURN,AL 36849. BARUCH COLL,SCH BUSINESS & PUBL ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT,NEW YORK,NY. CR ARORA A, 1990, J IND ECON, V38, P361 BLAU P, 1972, SOC SCI RES, V1, P1 BLAU PM, 1966, AM SOCIOL REV, V31, P179 BLAU PM, 1968, AM J SOCIOL, V73, P453 BLAU PM, 1971, STRUCTURE ORG BLAU PM, 1973, ORG ACADEMIC WORK BOZEMAN B, 1983, INVESTMENTS TECHNOLO BREALEY R, 1991, PRINCIPLES CORPORATE BURRILL GS, 1990, BIOTECH 90 NEXT DECA CHAKRABARTI AK, 1989, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V1, P357 CHAKRABARTI AK, 1991, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V8, P243 DIBNER MD, 1988, BIOTECHNOLOGY GUIDE FILDES RA, 1990, CALIF MANAGE REV, V32, P63 FRANKO LG, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V10, P449 HALL RH, 1987, ORG STRUCTURE PROCES HAMILTON WF, 1985, TECHNOL SOC, V7, P197 HAMILTON WF, 1990, CALIFORNIA MANAG SPR, P73 KIMBERLY JR, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P577 MCCUTCHEN WW, 1994, J HIGH TECHNOLOGY MA, V5, P213 PATTERSON TD, 1988, KPMG WORLD WIN, P42 SMITH JG, 1988, LONG RANGE PLANN, V21, P51 NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 51 IS 2 BP 173 EP 184 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TT208 UT ISI:A1996TT20800004 ER PT J AU Cauffiel, DA Porter, AL TI Electronics manufacturing in 2020: A national technological university management of technology mini-Delphi SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A Delphi study projects a series of critical changes in electronics manufacturing over the coming quarter-century. These changes imply a need for early planning to adapt production processes to altered materials, integrated products, environmentally conscious processes, different applications, and a markedly different workforce. C1 GEORGIA TECH,IND & SYST ENGN PH D PROGRAM,ATLANTA,GA 30332. CR ROESSNER JD, 1995, IMPLEMENTATION FURTH NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 51 IS 2 BP 185 EP 194 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TT208 UT ISI:A1996TT20800005 ER PT J AU Linstone, HA TI Technological slowdown or societal speedup - The price of system complexity? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Linstone, HA, PORTLAND STATE UNIV,POB 751,PORTLAND,OR 97207. CR *US BUR CENS, 1993, STAT ABSTR US, P10 AYRES RU, 1996, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P51 COATES JF, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V49, P321 DROR Y, 1993, SYSTEMS BASED APPROA, P139 DURANT W, 1944, CAESAR CHRIST, P666 DYKE C, 1990, PHILOS FORUM, P382 EDMUNDS SW, 1978, ALTERNATIVE US FUTUR FULLER R, 1995, NAMING ANTICHRIST HI FUSFIELD HI, 1994, IND FUTURE CHANGING, P275 GARDNER H, 1983, FRAMES MIND GARDNER H, 1995, LEADING MINDS ANATOM HORGAN J, 1995, SCI AM JUN, P104 KASH DE, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P35 KELLY M, 1995, NEW YORKER 0619, P67 KENNEDY P, 1987, RISE FALL GREAT POWE, CH1 KOLATA G, 1995, NY TIMES 0926 LIND M, 1995, NEXT AM NATION NEW N LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21ST CENTU, P208 MADRICK J, 1995, END AFFLUENCE CUASES MICHAEL DP, 1993, FUTURES JAN, P81 MODIS T, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P98 PINKERTON JP, 1995, WHAT COMES NEXT END PRICE DJD, 1963, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI ROSELL SA, 1995, CHANGING MAPS GOVERN, P104 SHERMER M, 1995, HIST THEORY, V34, P59 ZWICK M, 1995, ADV SYSTEMS SCI APPL NR 26 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 51 IS 2 BP 195 EP 205 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TT208 UT ISI:A1996TT20800006 ER PT J AU Nakicenovic, N TI Decarbonization: Doing more with less SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article demonstrates that large decreases in energy requirements per unit economic output were achieved throughout the world and that carbon emissions have also decreased per unit energy. Energy is one of the most important factor inputs so that decreases in specific energy requirements contribute toward decreasing material intensity. Carbon dioxide emissions represent one of the largest single mass flows associated with human activities. Therefore, decarbonization contributes in a large way toward dematerializaton. At the global level decarbonization occurs at about 0.3% per year, and reduction of energy intensity of value added stands at 1% per year, resulting in overall carbon intensity of value added reduction of about 1.3% per year. The pervasiveness of decarbonization in the world, is illustrated for five representative countries. The case histories show that developing countries are undergoing basically the same process of decarbonization of final energy use as do most developed ones. However, carbon intensity of primary energy is increasing in some developing countries and should a reversal not occur in the forthcoming decades, it is likely the decarbonization in the industrialized countries could be offset by this tendency. Thus, the possibility cannot be entirely excluded that carbon dioxide emissions would increase faster than economic growth. These opposing tendencies could be bridged in the future if the energy system restructures toward larger reliance on natural gas, biomass, nuclear energy, and other zero-carbon options. For example, the methane economy could lead to a greater role for energy gases (and later hydrogen) in conjunction with electricity. Such an energy system would represent a gigantic step toward decarbonization and it would also be consistent with the emergence of new technologies that hold the promise of higher flexibility, productivity, and environmental compatibility. RP Nakicenovic, N, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM COMPATIBLE ENERGY STRATEGIES PROJECT,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR *UN, 1992, EN STAT YB *UN, 1992, LONG RANG WORLD POP AUSUBEL JH, WORKING LESS LIVIN 1 AUSUBEL JH, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P245 GRUBLER A, 1988, METHANE AGE GRUBLER A, 1991, ENTROPIE, V164, P29 MADDISON A, 1991, DYNAMICS FORCES CAPI MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 INT I APPL SY MARCHETTI C, 1982, WP82123 INT I APPL S NAKICENOVIC N, 1990, LIFE CYCLES LONG WAV NAKICENOVIC N, 1993, DECARBONIZATION WORL SCHILLING HD, 1977, ROHSTOFFWIRTSCHAFT I, V6, P5 VU MT, 1985, WORLD POPULATION PRO WILLIAMS RH, 1987, ANNU REV ENERGY, V12, P99 YAMAJI K, 1991, MAR WORKSH CO2 RED R NR 15 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 1 EP 17 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TQ452 UT ISI:A1996TQ45200001 ER PT J AU Shama, A Ciurel, V TI Going to market: A comparative study of Russian and Romanian marketing managers SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This study compares the effects of and adjustments to market economy forces on the part of marketing managers in Russia and Romania. Data supporting this comparison and the rest of four hypotheses were gathered by personal interviews with Russian and Romanian managers. The findings show that, although marketing managers in both countries were drastically affected by market forces, Romanian managers were able to recognize and respond to market forces better than were Russian managers. The behavior of Romanian marketing managers also depended more on the type of enterprise ownership (state, joint stock, or private) than did the behavior of Russian marketing managers. C1 UNIV BUCHAREST,ACAD ECON STUDIES,BUCHAREST,ROMANIA. RP Shama, A, UNIV NEW MEXICO,ANDERSON SCH MANAGEMENT,ALBUQUERQUE,NM 87131. CR FABRIZIO L, 1992, BUSINESS AM APR JERMAKOWICZ W, 1975, ATTEMPT CLASSIFY MAN JOHNSON R, 1992, BUSINESS AM 0406, P19 KORNAI J, 1971, ANTIEQUILIBRIUM EC S KORNAI J, 1980, EC SHORTAGE KORNAI J, 1990, ROAD FREE EC SHIFTIN KORNAI J, 1990, ZAPALCIVYI PAMFLET P NAOR J, 1985, INT MARKETING REV, V2, P31 NAOR J, 1986, J MARKETING JAN, P28 NEHER J, 1992, I INVESTOR MAR, S3 SAMLI C, 1978, MARKETING DISTRIBUTI SAMLI C, 1986, INT MARKETING RE WIN, P7 SHAMA A, 1992, INT MARKETING REV, V9, P44 SHAMA A, 1993, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT E, V7, P22 THUROW R, 1994, WALL STREET J 1027, A1 NR 15 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 19 EP 36 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TQ452 UT ISI:A1996TQ45200002 ER PT J AU Toma, L TI Going to market: A commentary SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The commentary identifies 10 major generic turnaround strategies that firms commonly use. Then it addresses each of the strategies separately, as well as how these strategies are combined, under the specific Romanian and Russian circumstances, to formulate an appropriate recovery strategy. The commentary points out that in a severe cash crisis both Romanian and Russian managers should use, first and foremost, cash-generation strategies such as asset reduction and debt restructuring. These strategies must also be supported by very tight financial control procedures, which both Russian and Romanian managers are reluctant to follow. RP Toma, L, AMERICAN UNIV,DEPT ECON,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. CR SHAMA A, 1996, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V51, P19 NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 37 EP 43 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TQ452 UT ISI:A1996TQ45200003 ER PT J AU Williams, G Andersen, J TI Technology assessment network building: The international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994. RP Williams, G, ARGONNE NATL LAB,INT ASSOC TECHNOL ASSESSMENT & FORECASTING INST,955 LENFANT PLAZA N,WASHINGTON,DC 20024. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 45 EP 48 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TQ452 UT ISI:A1996TQ45200004 ER PT J AU Coenen, R TI Challenges of networking in technology assessment SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Coenen, R, RES CTR KARLSRUHE,DEPT APPL SYST ANAL,KARLSRUHE,GERMANY. CR BERG MR, 1978, FACTORS AFFECTING UT DEBRESSON C, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P363 FLEISCHER T, 1992, TA DATENBANK NACHRIC, V1, P3 MAYNTZ R, 1983, TECHNOLOGIEN PRUFSTA PASCHEN H, 1991, TECHNIKFOLGEN ABSCHA, V1 RAUTENBERG T, 1983, WSI MITTEILUNGEN, V42, S131 RICH RF, 1976, UNPUB INSTRUMENTAL C SMITS R, 1993, STRONG EFFECTIVE EUR STRUMPERJANZEN P, 1993, EUROPAISCHE TECHNIKF NR 9 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 49 EP 54 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TQ452 UT ISI:A1996TQ45200005 ER PT J AU Cronberg, T TI European TA-discourses - European TA? SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Is there a balance to be achieved between national technological assessment (TA) activities and the European level? What are the potential benefits of the European-level TA infrastructure both for the Community's own R&D and for national TA activities? This article discusses these questions in light of the different ways TA has been conceptualized in Europe, particularly in the light of the current debate on social shaping of technology and constructive TA. As a member of the VALUE II Think Tank group, I have also included a presentation of the initiatives of VALUE II to strengthen European TA infrastructure. RP Cronberg, T, TECH UNIV DENMARK,UNIT TECHNOL ASSESSMENT,INST TECHNOL & SOC,BLDG 208,DK-2800 LYNGBY,DENMARK. CR 1993, ETUDE INTERFACE, V3 *STAT ART TECHN AS, 1990, COMM EUR COMM AGERSNAP, 1992, GENETIC ENG IND AGR AYRES RU, 1970, UN EXCHANGE COMMISSI CLAUSEN C, 1992, 8 TU DENM TECHN ASS CRONBERG T, IN PRESS PUBLIC PART CRONBERG T, 1991, DANISH EXPT SOCIAL C CRONBERG T, 1991, METHODS TECHNOLOGY A DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC JANTSCH E, 1967, PREVISION TECHNOLOGI LUNDEVAL BA, 1992, NATIONAL SYSTEMS INN MASSEY D, 1992, HIGH TECH FANTASIES RIP A, IN PRESS INTRO CONST NR 13 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 55 EP 64 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TQ452 UT ISI:A1996TQ45200006 ER PT J AU Inzelt, A TI Institutional support for technological improvement - The case of Hungary SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID NETWORKS AB The technological ''time warp'' in which Hungary, like other Central and Eastern European countries, has found itself since the 1950s is at an end. This article concentrates on the transformation of institutional structures that support innovation and industrial technological development. First, it summarizes the types of institutions that support technological development. In a market economy, the process of generation and diffusion of innovation largely depends on the institutional and economic structure of the country. In a narrower sense, those institutions might be included in this group whose aim is wholly or in part to assist firms in experimenting with, understanding, and implementing new products and new production processes and improving quality. This article then details forms of inter-firm cooperation and highlights some empirical research findings based on three sectors-the pharmaceutical, machine tool, and car parts industries - which represent three different cases in the restructuring of Hungarian manufacturing. The main lesson of the study is that industry during its redeployment can create few demands for technology development institutes. Because of inherited structure, the accumulated knowledge of existing institutes and the supply and scattered demand of industry for technological support do not regularly coincide. RP Inzelt, A, INNOVAT RES CTR,MUZEUM UTCA 17 I-128,H-1088 BUDAPEST,HUNGARY. CR ERGAS H, 1986, CEPS29 PAP ERGAS H, 1988, CEPS5 CTR EUR POL ST FREEMAN C, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P499 GYORGY K, 1994, UNPUB R D INNOVATION HAGEDOORN J, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P163 HAVAS A, 1995, REEMERGENCE AUTO PAR INZELT A, 1992, UNPUB PRIVATIZATION INZELT A, 1994, DEC 6 COUNTR PROGR C INZELT A, 1994, IKU MEMO INZELT A, 1994, TECHNOL SOC, V16, P35 KUHLMAN S, 1993, U IND RES IND INTERF MOSONI J, 1994, UNPUB IND RES I TRAN MOWERY DC, 1989, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E NAPOLITANO G, 1991, COOPERATIVE R D JAPA PODEN I, 1994, UNPUB MUSZAKI FEJLOD SOETE L, 1993, INTEGRATED APPROCH E NR 16 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 65 EP 93 PG 29 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TQ452 UT ISI:A1996TQ45200007 ER PT J AU AUSUBEL, JH GRUBLER, A TI WORKING LESS AND LIVING LONGER - LONG-TERM TRENDS IN WORKING TIME AND TIME BUDGETS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ALLOCATION AB Analyses of time series data beginning in the mid-nineteenth century in the industrialized nations, especially the United Kingdom, show that on average people are working significantly less while living longer. Although the average career length has remained around 40 years, the total life hours worked shrank for an average British worker from 124,000 hours in 1856 to 69,000 in 1981. The fraction of disposable lifetime hours spent working declined from 50% to 20%. Meanwhile the female share of career years doubled to 30%. If the long-term trends continue at their historic rates, the work week might average 27 hours by the year 2050. The secular trend away from the formalized work contract to other socially obligatory activities and free time implies numerous challenges for human societies. C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM COMPATIBLE ENERGY STRATEGIES PROJECT,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. ROCKEFELLER UNIV,PROGRAM HUMAN ENVIRONM,NEW YORK,NY 10021. CR 1988, NY TIMES 0806, A4 1988, NY TIMES 1231, A1 *ITALY EUR CTR SOC, 1983, R120MARCH19831 NOT *JAPAN STAT BUR MA, 1987, JAP STAT YB *NAT COMM MANP POL, 1978, 28 REP ANDORKA R, 1987, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V13, P149 ARMSTRONG P, 1984, TECHNICAL CHANGE RED BECKER GS, 1976, EC APPROACH HUMAN BE BLOSSFELD HP, 1989, EVENT HIST ANAL STAT BLYTON P, 1985, CHANGES WORKING TIME DESMOND K, 1987, HARWIN CHRONOLOGY IN DOUGLAS PH, 1934, THEORY WAGES DUMAZEDIER J, 1989, SAGE STUDIES INT SOC, V38 FALUSSY B, 1989, STATISTIC J UN ECE, V6, P51 FLORA P, 1987, STATE EC SOC W EUROP, V2 FOURASTIE J, 1965, 4000 HEURES GERSHUNY J, 1992, FUTURES JAN, P3 GERSHUNY JI, 1989, APR INT WORKSH CHANG GERSHUNY JI, 1989, APR INT WORKSH CHANG GHEZ GR, 1975, ALLOCATION TIME GOOD GROSS DR, 1984, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V13, P519 HAREVEN TK, 1982, FAMILY TIME IND TIME HARRIMAN A, 1982, WORK LEISURE TRADE O HARRIS M, 1981, NOTHING WORKS ANTHR HARVEY AS, 1984, ISSC WORKBOOK COMP A HARVEY AS, 1989, APR INT WORKSH CHANG HURD MD, 1991, J ECON LIT, V27, P565 IMHOFF AE, 1981, GEWONNEN JAHRE ZUNAH JAHODA M, 1988, RHYTHMS SOC JONES EB, 1963, REV ECON STAT, V45, P374 JUSTER FT, 1991, J ECON LIT, V29, P471 KRELLE W, 1989, FUTURE WORLD EC EC G KUTSCHER R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES LEONTIEFF W, 1978, NATIONAL COMMISSION, P129 MADDISON A, 1991, DYNAMIC FORCES CAPIT MARCHAND O, 1992, FURTURIBLES, V165, P29 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7910 INT I APPL SY MATTHEWS RCO, 1982, BRIT EC GROWTH 1856 MAYER KU, 1990, EVENT HIST ANAL LIFE MINGEKLEVANA W, 1980, CURR ANTHROPOL, V21, P279 NOWOTNY H, 1989, EIGENZEIT ENTSTEHUNG NOWOTNY H, 1989, EIGENZEIT ENTSTEHUNG OWEN JD, 1978, NATIONAL COMMISSION, P331 OWEN JD, 1979, WORKING HOURS EC ANA ROBINSON JP, 1967, 66 BASIC TABLES TIME ROBINSON JP, 1988, RHYTHM EVERYDAY LIFE SAHLINS MD, 1974, STONE AGE ECONOMICS SCHIPPER L, 1989, ANN REV ENERGY, V16, P273 SCHOR J, 1991, OVERWORKED AM SHARP C, 1981, EC TIME STRASSER S, 1982, NEVER DONE HIST AM H SZALAI A, 1972, USE TIME THOMPSON EP, 1967, PAST PRESENT, V38, P56 VANEK J, 1974, SCI AM NOV, P116 WILENSKY H, SOC PROBL, V9, P32 WILLIAMS B, 1983, 1983 SESQ C MANCH ST, P90 YOUNG M, 1988, METRONOMIC SOC NATUR YOUNG M, 1991, LIFE WORK NR 58 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 113 EP 131 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TB454 UT ISI:A1995TB45400001 ER PT J AU PISTORIUS, CWI UTTERBACK, JM TI THE DEATH KNELLS OF MATURE TECHNOLOGIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CHAOS; SUBSTITUTION; INDUSTRY; FRACTALS; TOOLS AB The oscillatory behavior in the mature phase of some technologies' diffusion-related S curves are investigated, specifically with regard to the influences that other technologies can have on the oscillations. The notion of mortality indicators is raised, that is, whether such behavior is a signal that the mature technology is under attack from an emerging technology. The case of structural panels in the wood products industry is considered as an example, and an updated forecast of the substitution of oriented strand board for plywood is made. It is concluded that factors such as macroeconomic business cycles are primarily responsible for the oscillations in plywood's S-curve, although it is argued that an emerging technology can also contribute to perturbations in a mature technology's S-curve. Two possible alternative explanations for the oscillatory behavior are also discussed, a previously proposed chaos formulation, and a mathematical model based on modified Lotka-Volterra equations. This model shows that the oscillatory behavior in mature technologies' S-curves can also result from symbiotic interaction between two technologies under certain circumstances. C1 UNIV PRETORIA,DEPT ELECT & ELECTR ENGN,PRETORIA 0002,SOUTH AFRICA. MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. RP PISTORIUS, CWI, UNIV PRETORIA,FAC ENGN,INST TECHNOL INNOVAT,PRETORIA 0002,SOUTH AFRICA. CR 1993, WOOD PRODUCTS REV LU, V24 1994, WOOD TECHNOLOGY, V121, P8 *US DEP COMM, 1993, STAT ABSTR US BARBE J, 1986, TURNAROUND COMPANIES BHARGAVA SC, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P319 BHARGAVA SC, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P323 BLACKMAN AW, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P41 BLACKMAN T, 1994, WOOD TECHNOLOGY, V121, P25 BUNDGAARDNIELSE.M, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI, P109 DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN DOSI G, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI, P179 FARRELL CJ, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P161 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS GIRIFALCO LA, 1991, DYNAMICS TECHNOLOGIC GORDON RJ, 1990, MACROECONOMICS GORDON T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P49 GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 GORDON TJ, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P337 GORDON TJ, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P1 GRUBLER A, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI, P483 HARRIGAN KR, 1983, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P111 KUMAR U, 1992, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V39, P158 LINSTONE HA, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P3 MARCHETTI C, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P373 MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P169 MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MODIS T, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI, P511 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 MODIS T, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P157 MODIS T, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P63 MOENAERT R, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P39 MOGEE ME, 1991, RES TECHNOLOGY M JUL, P43 MONTREY H, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P15 MONTREY HM, 1982, CURRENT STATUS FUTUR NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, RR7912 INT I APPL SY NARIN F, 1992, SCI PUBL POLICY, V19, P369 PIELOU EC, 1969, INTRO MATH ECOLOGY PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME TINGYAN X, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V38, P175 UTTERBACK JC, 1972, BUSINESS HORIZON OCT, P5 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I VIRGIN B, 1994, FRESNO BEE 1009, D10 NR 46 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 133 EP 151 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TB454 UT ISI:A1995TB45400002 ER PT J AU MAJUMDAR, SK TI THE DETERMINANTS OF INVESTMENT IN NEW TECHNOLOGY - AN EXAMINATION OF ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FIRM; REGRESSION; ADOPTION AB This article evaluates and finds support for the hypothesis that innovative activity undertaken by firms, as measured by the level of investments in new technology, is a positive function of micro-market pressures that they face from potential competitors. The empirical context studied is a cross-sectional sample of 40 firms that make up the principal portion of the local operating sector of the U.S. telecommunications industry. Firm size and potential market power are both found to be insignificant but negative, thus not validating two hypotheses much researched in the literature that innovative activity is a positive function of firm size and potential market power. Demand-growth and imitation effects are also controlled in the model and are found positively to induce investment in new technology. C1 UNIV MICHIGAN,SCH BUSINESS,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. CR ACS Z, 1991, INNOVATION TECHNICAL ALCHIAN AA, 1950, J POLITICAL EC, V58, P211 ARROW KJ, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN, P609 BALDWIN WL, 1987, MARKET STRUCTURE TEC BAUMOL WJ, 1982, CONTESTABLE MARKETS BLATTBERG R, 1971, ECONOMETRICA, V39, P501 BOLTER WG, 1984, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P BOLTER WG, 1990, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P BROZEN Y, 1951, AM ECON REV, V41, P239 CARLSSON B, 1989, INT J IND ORGAN, V7, P179 COHEN WM, 1989, HDB IND ORG, V2, P1060 DASGUPTA P, 1986, NEW DEV ANAL MARKET, P519 DEMSETZ H, 1969, J LAW ECON, V12, P1 DOBELL R, 1972, BELL J ECON, V5, P175 FELLNER W, 1951, Q J ECON, V65, P650 FLAMM K, 1989, CHANGING RULES TECHN, P13 GALBRAITH JK, 1952, AM CAPITALISM GIFFORD S, 1992, RAND J ECON, V23, P284 GUJARATI D, 1986, BASIC ECONOMETRICS HANNAN TH, 1984, RAND J ECON, V15, P328 HAYEK FA, 1945, AM ECON REV, V35, P519 HICKS JR, 1935, ECONOMETRICA, V3, P1 KAMIEN MI, 1970, J LAW ECON, V13, P241 KAMIEN MI, 1972, J IND ECON, V20, P159 KAMIEN MI, 1982, MARKET STRUCTURE INN KIRZNER IM, 1973, COMPETITION ENTREPRE LANGDALE J, 1982, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P, P283 LEIBENSTEIN H, 1969, Q J ECON, V83, P600 LEIBENSTEIN H, 1976, EC MAN NEW F MICROEC LEVIN SG, 1987, REV ECON STAT, V69, P12 MADDALA GS, 1977, ECONOMETRICS MAJUMDAR SK, 1994, J ECON PSYCHOL, V15, P405 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V2, P741 MEYER JR, 1980, EC COMPETITION TELEC MILGROM PR, 1992, EC ORG MANAGEMENT MOHR LB, 1969, AM POLIT SCI REV, V63, P111 MOOKHERJEE D, 1991, J ECON THEORY, V54, P124 MOWERY DC, 1979, RES POLICY, V8, P103 NUTTER CW, 1956, J POLITICAL EC, V54, P520 PENROSE ET, 1959, THEORY GROWTH FIRM REINGANUM JF, 1989, HDB IND ORG, V1, P849 ROBINSON T, 1986, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHUMPETER JA, 1975, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SKOOG RE, 1980, DESIGN COST CHARACTE THIRTLE CG, 1987, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G TRAUTH E, 1983, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P, P111 WEISMAN DL, 1988, YALE J REGULATION, V5, P149 WENDERS JT, 1988, TELECOMMUNICATION SP, P16 WILLIAMSON OE, 1975, MARKETS HIERARCHIES ZANFEI A, 1992, EC INFORMATION NETWO ZECKHAUSER R, 1970, REV ECON STAT, V52, P280 NR 52 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 153 EP 165 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TB454 UT ISI:A1995TB45400003 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 50 IS 3 BP 167 EP 170 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA TB454 UT ISI:A1995TB45400004 ER PT J AU BUTTNER, T GRUBLER, A TI THE BIRTH OF A GREEN GENERATION - GENERATIONAL DYNAMICS OF RESOURCE CONSUMPTION PATTERNS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID COHORT; MORTALITY; PERIOD; TIME; AGE AB The article discusses a generational perspective on changes in lifestyle and consumption patterns that complement more-traditional approaches of heterogeneity and path dependency of human behavior. An application is given, in developing a model of cohort and gender-specific diffusion of technological artifacts, applied to the case of car ownership in Germany. The article concludes with a number of research questions to address the complexities of changes in human behavior from an interdisciplinary perspective. C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM COMPATIBLE ENERGY STRATEGIES PROJECT,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. UN,DIV POP,NEW YORK,NY 10017. CR 1991, DTSCH SHELL AKTIEN G, V22 1994, HUMAN DIMENSIONS Q, V1, P1 1994, WIRTSCH STAT, V12, P924 *JW GOETH U, 3 SOND FORSCH BER *KRAFTF BUND, 1982, STAT MITT KRAFTF BUN *SOC DAT, 1984, ERG KONT VERK KONTIV *UN, 1983, STESASERA81 *US MIN IND TRAD, 1993, OUTL EL DEM SUPPL 19, P11 *US STAT BUR, 1968, JAP STAT YB AUSUBEL JH, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC BECKER GS, 1976, EC APPROACH HUMAN BE BIRG H, 1991, BIOGRAPHISCHE THEORI CASELLI G, 1989, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V43, P133 DINKEL RH, 1985, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V39, P87 FRITZSCHE D, 1981, J MARKETING RES, V18, P227 FUJII Y, 1990, WP9055 IIASA GERSHUNY J, 1992, FUTURES, V24, P3 GHEZ GR, 1975, ALLOCATION TIME GOOD GLADHART PM, 1986, ENERGY FAMILIES ANAL GRUBLER A, 1994, RR949 IIASA HAGERSTRAND T, 1970, PAPERS REGIONAL SCI, V24, P7 HOBCRAFT J, 1981, METHODOLOGIES COLLEC, P245 HOBCRAFT J, 1982, POPUL INDEX, V48, P4 HURD MD, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P565 INGLEHART R, 1984, CULTURAL INDICATORS, P473 JACOBSON K, 1992, RES HUMAN COMPONENTS KERTZER DI, 1983, ANN REV SOCIOLOGY, V9, P123 KEYFITZ N, 1991, 1991 WORKSH SOC BEH KLEMMER ET, 1972, J COMMUN, V22, P142 MAHAJAN V, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGY, P125 MALFETTI JL, 1985, 1985 P OLD DRIV C OR MOLLER KP, 1990, BILD WISSENSCHAFT, V7, P108 NAKICENOVIC N, 1990, TECHNISCHER FORTSCHR ONEILL D, 1992, LANCET, V339, P41 POLLAK RA, 1986, DEMOGRAPHY, V23, P247 RALLU JL, 1990, POPULATION, V45, P27 RATHJE C, 1992, RUBBISH ARCHEOLOGY G RENTZ JO, 1983, J MARKETING RES, V20, P12 RENTZ JO, 1991, J MARKETING RES, V27, P355 ROBINSON JP, 1989, 1989 INT WORKSH CHAN RYDER NB, 1905, AM SOCIOL REV, V30, P843 RYDER NB, 1980, DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS, P15 SAMMER G, 1990, MOBILITAT OSTERREICH SCHIPPER L, 1989, ANNU REV ENERGY, V14, P273 SCHOR JB, 1991, UNEXPECTED DECLINE L SOMMER B, 1992, WI STA, V4, P217 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STRAUSS W, 1991, HIST AM FUTURE 1584 VANIMHOFF E, 1992, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V46, P159 WAGNER J, 1983, J CONSUM RES, V10, P281 WILLEKENS F, 1984, NIDI45 WORK PAP WILMOTH J, 1990, POPULATION ENGLISH S, V2, P93 NR 52 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 50 IS 2 BP 113 EP 134 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RU984 UT ISI:A1995RU98400001 ER PT J AU ZACHARIADIS, T SAMARAS, Z ZIEROCK, KH TI DYNAMIC MODELING OF VEHICLE POPULATIONS - AN ENGINEERING APPROACH FOR EMISSIONS CALCULATIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A model initially developed for forecasts of air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles is presented, with special emphasis on its vehicle dynamics module. Vehicle density forecasts are performed separately for passenger cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles. Combined with estimates of vehicle usage parameters they are used to predict the total traffic volume up to the year 2010. The internal turnover of the vehicle fleet is simulated with a modified Weibull function, and the technology substitution process is determined nonanalytically. Although more refined approaches have been developed for the prediction of the dynamic behavior of car populations, the one presented here has been designed in such a way that it can be applied to countries where detailed information is lacking or too difficult to find, and even nonexperts can implement it reasonably well. C1 GERMAN FED ENVIRONM AGCY,BERLIN,GERMANY. RP ZACHARIADIS, T, ARISTOTELIAN UNIV THESSALONIKI,DEPT MECH ENGN,APPL THERMODYNAM LAB,GR-54006 THESSALONIKI,GREECE. CR 1987, STATISTISCHE MITTELU, V3 1991, OFFICIAL J EUROPEA L, V242 ANDRIAS A, 1993, IMW TNO PUBLICATION, P37 EGGLESTON HS, 1992, CORINAIR WORKING GRO, V1 FRANSES PH, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P287 HOLTMANN T, 1994, CORINAIR UN ECE WORK HOLTMANN T, 1994, DEV METHODOLOGY COMP JORGENSEN F, 1990, J TRANSP ECON POLICY, V24, P139 JOST P, 1983, EUR8688 EN COMM EUR MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P3 OWSINSKI JW, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P135 ROMANOWICZ TM, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P81 SAMARAS Z, 1989, SUMMARY REPORT CORIN, V3 SAMARAS Z, 1992, EUR13854 EN COMM EUR SAMARAS Z, 1993, 26TH P INT S AUT TEC, P307 SAMARAS Z, 1993, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V134, P251 SOUDER WE, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P1 NR 17 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 50 IS 2 BP 135 EP 149 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RU984 UT ISI:A1995RU98400002 ER PT J AU FREY, RS TI THE INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN PESTICIDES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES; CENTRAL-AMERICA; HAZARDOUS PRODUCTS; MALARIA RESURGENCE; DEVELOPING-NATIONS; ECOLOGICAL CRISIS; PEST-MANAGEMENT; HEALTH; CANCER; INDIA AB The general problem of environmental equity is examined in terms of the flow of pesticides from the developed countries (DCs) to the less developed countries (LDCs). Five facets of the problem are examined. The nature and scope of the international pesticide flow is first examined. Political-economic forces characterizing relations between (and within) DCs and LDCs that have increased the pesticide flow to the LDCs are discussed. The extent to which this stream has contributed to health, environmental, and other risks in LDCs is discussed. Major policies that have been proposed and enacted as solutions to the problem are critically reviewed. The article concludes with the argument that the adoption of sustainable techniques of pest control is the best means for dealing with the problem. RP FREY, RS, KANSAS STATE UNIV AGR & APPL SCI,DEPT SOCIOL ANTHROPOL & SOCIAL WORK,MANHATTAN,KS 66502. CR 1985, MAZINGIRA, V8, P26 1988, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V260, P959 1988, NEW SCI, V118, P27 *NAT RES COUNC, 1986, PEST RES STRAT TACT *NAT RES COUNC, 1989, ALT AGR *NAT RES COUNC, 1993, PEST DIETS INF CHILD *THIRD WORLD NETW, TOX TERR DUMP HAZ WA *US EPA, 1987, UNF BUS COMP ASS ENV *US EPA, 1990, RED RISK SETT PRIOR *WHO, 1976, 1974 C INT DU ALK TR *WHO, 1990, PUBL HLTH IMP PEST U *WORLD RES I, 1986, WORLD RES 1986 *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 1995 ADAMSON AW, 1976, PHYSICAL CHEM SURFAC, P115 ALBERS ND, 1991, J PUBLIC POLICY MARK, V10, P130 ALM R, 1990, TRANSBOUNDARY RESOUR, V4, P3 ALSTON D, 1993, CONFRONTING ENV RACI, P179 ALTIERI M, 1987, AGROECOLOGY SCI BASI ANDERTON DL, 1994, DEMOGRAPHY, V31, P229 BAKER S, 1990, EFFECTS PESTICIDES H BAKIR F, 1973, SCIENCE, V181, P231 BARAM MS, 1980, ECOLOGY LAW Q, V8, P473 BARBIER EB, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P879 BARRY T, 1987, ROOTS REBELLION LAND BARRY T, 1994, CHALLENGE CROSS BORD BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BLAIR A, 1990, EFFECT PESTICIDES HU, P201 BOARDMAN R, 1986, PESTICIDES WORLD AGR BOGARD W, 1989, BHOPAL TRAGEDY LANGU BRATTSTEN LB, 1986, SCIENCE, V231, P1255 BRAY F, 1994, SCI AM JUL, P30 BREYER S, 1993, BREAKING VICIOUS CIR BRIGGS SA, 1990, ECOLOGIST, V20, P54 BROWN HS, 1993, CORPORATE ENV GLOBAL BROWN P, 1990, NO SAFE PLACE TOXIC BRYANT B, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H BUCHEL KH, 1984, REGUL TOXICOL PHARM, V4, P174 BULL D, 1982, GROWING PROBLEM PEST BULLARD RD, 1990, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C BULLARD RD, 1993, CONFRONTING ENV RACI BULLARD RD, 1994, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C BULLARD RD, 1994, UNEQUAL JUSTICE ENV BUTTELL F, 1993, PESTICIDE QUESTION E, P153 CABLE S, 1995, ENV PROBLEMS GRASSRO CARSON R, 1987, SILENT SPRING CASTLEMAN BI, 1979, INT J HLTH SERV, V9, P569 CASTLEMAN BI, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD, P60 CASTLEMAN BI, 1987, ANNU REV PUBL HEALTH, V8, P1 CASTO KM, 1989, INTRO ENV HLTH CAUFIELD C, 1984, NEW SCI, V104, P15 CECIL PF, 1986, HERBICIDAL WARFARE R CHABOUSSON F, 1986, ECOLOGIST, V16, P29 CHAPIN G, 1981, NATURE, V293, P181 CHAPIN G, 1983, ECOLOGIST, V13, P115 CHASEDUNN C, 1989, GLOBAL FORMATION STR CONWAY GR, 1991, UNWELCOME HARVEST AG COVELLO VT, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P159 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH DAHLBERG K, 1993, PESTICIDE QUESTION E, P281 DALY HE, 1989, COMMON GOOD REDIRECT DAVIS DL, 1992, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V100, P39 DEJANVRY A, 1981, AGRARIAN QUESTION RE DIETZ T, IN PRESS HDB ENV SOC DINHAM B, 1993, PESTICIDE HAZARD GLO DOWIE M, 1987, CORPORATE VIOLENCE I, P47 DUNLAP TR, 1981, DDT SCI CITIZENS PUB EDWARDS CA, 1993, PESTICIDE QUESTION E, P13 EHRLICH P, 1989, PESTICIDE CONSPIRACY, R15 ELLING RH, 1981, INT J HLTH SERV, V11, P21 ELSEBAE AH, 1982, GENETIC TOXICOLOGY A, P119 FABER D, 1988, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V1, P39 FABER D, 1992, LAT AM PERSPECT, V19, P17 FABER D, 1993, ENV FIRE IMPERIALISM FABER D, 1993, TOXIC STRUGGLES THEO, P12 FRENCH HF, 1993, COSTLY TRADEOFFS REC FREY RS, 1994, J ENVIRON SYST, V23, P165 GALLI CD, 1987, COLUMBIA J ENV LAW, V12, P71 GEISLER C, 1977, W SOCIOLOGICAL REV, V8, P1 GEROGE S, 1990, FATE WORSE DEBT WORL GOLDBERG KA, 1985, ECOL LAW QUART, V12, P1025 GOLDRICH D, 1992, LAT AM PERSPECT, V19, P97 GOLDSMITH E, 1908, ECOLOGIST, V10, P94 GOODMAN D, 1991, REFASHIONING NATURE GOODMAN LW, 1987, MULTINATIONAL CORP E, P90 GOURLAY KA, 1992, WORLD WASTE DILEMMAS GROSSMAN LS, 1992, HUM ECOL, V20, P315 GUPTA YP, 1986, ECOLOGIST, V16, P36 HALTER F, 1987, COLUM J ENV L, V12, P1 HAMMON PB, 1990, VALUING HLTH RISKS C HANDL G, 1989, TRANSFERRING HAZARDO HARPER CR, 1990, EC PERSPECTIVES PEST, P181 HARVEY MG, 1988, J PUBLIC POLICY MARK, V7, P203 HAYES WJ, 1975, TOXICOLOGY PESTICIDE HAYS SP, 1987, BEAUTY HLTH PERMANEN HILZ C, 1992, INT TOXIC WASTE TRAD HOFRICKER R, 1993, TOXIC STRUGGLES THEO HURST P, 1991, PESTICIDE HDB IVES JH, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD TRANSN IVES JH, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD TRANSN, P172 JEYARATNAM J, 1982, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V60, P615 JEYARATNAM J, 1987, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V65, P521 JEYARATNAM J, 1990, WORLD HLTH STATISTIC, V43, P139 KAPP KW, 1971, SOCIAL COSTS PRIVATE KAUSHIK CP, 1987, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V32, P63 KLOPPENBURG JR, 1988, 1ST SEED POLITICAL E KOHN G, 1987, SILENT SPRING REVIST, P159 KOLBERG R, 1994, SCIENCE, V264, P1859 LAPPE FM, 1977, FOOD 1ST MYTHS SCARC LEONARD HJ, 1987, NATURAL RESOURCES EC LEONARD HJ, 1988, POLLUTING STRUGGLE W LOEVINSOHN ME, 1987, LANCET 0613, P1359 LUTTRELL RG, 1994, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V39, P517 MACINTYRE AA, 1987, NAT RESOUR J, V27, P533 MACSHEOIN T, 1987, INT J HEALTH SERV, V17, P343 MAGRATH I, 1993, J NATL CANCER I, V85, P862 MALONE G, 1985, REGULATING IND RISK, P40 MARCO GJ, 1987, SILENT SPRING REVISI MARONI M, 1993, TOXICOLOGY, V78, P1 MATSUMURA F, 1985, TOXICOLOGY INSECTICI MCCONNELL R, 1993, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V83, P1559 MCWILLIAMS MD, 1984, HASTINGS INT COMP LA, V8, P61 MICHAELS D, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD TRANSN, P94 MILLER GT, 1992, LIVING ENV MITCHELL RC, 1989, USING SURVEYS VALUE MORRISON HI, 1992, J NATL CANCER I, V84, P1866 MOSES M, 1993, TOXICOL IND HEALTH, V9, P913 MRAK EM, 1984, REGULATORY TOXICOLOG, V4, P28 MURRAY DL, 1984, POLICY STUDIES REV, V4, P219 MURRAY DL, 1991, AGR HUMAN VALUES, V8, P19 MURRAY DL, 1992, WORLD DEV, V20, P597 NEWBY ME, 1991, THESIS U OREGON NORRIS R, 1982, PILLS PESTICIDES PRO OCONNOR J, 1989, RACE CLASS, V30, P1 PAARLBERG R, 1993, I EARTH, P309 PEARSON CS, 1987, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR PEREVA J, 1985, NEW SCI, V108, P34 PERFECTO I, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H, P177 PERROLLE JA, 1993, SOCIAL PROBLEMS, V40 PIMENTEL D, 1988, J PESTICIDE REFORM, V7, P2 PIMENTEL D, 1993, PESTICIDE QUESTION E PIMENTEL D, 1993, PESTICIDE QUESTION E, P47 POSTEL S, 1987, DEFUSING TOXICS THRE PUCKETT J, 1994, ECOLOGIST, V24, P53 PURDEY M, 1994, ECOLOGIST, V24, P100 REGANOLD JP, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P344 REICH MP, 1994, LEARNING DISASTER RI, P180 REICH MR, 1992, PROTECTING WORKERS H REICHELDERFER K, 1989, POLITICAL EC US AGR REPETTO R, 1985, PAYING PRICE PESTICI ROLA AC, 1993, PESTICIDES RICE PROD ROSE EC, 1989, INT L, V23, P223 ROSSET PM, 1991, AGR HUMAN VALUES, V8, P30 RUNGE CF, 1993, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V5, P95 SAGOFF M, 1988, EC EARTH PHILOS LAW SATCHELL M, 1991, US NEWS WORLD R 0610, P31 SATTAUR O, 1987, NEW SCI, V114, P21 SCHNAIBERG A, 1993, QUALITATIVE SOCIOLOG, V16 SEXTON K, 1993, TOXICOL IND HEALTH, V9, P843 SHAIKH RA, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD TRASNA, P193 SHANNON TR, 1989, INTRO WORLD SYSTEM P SHARP DS, 1986, ANNU REV PUBL HEALTH, V7, P441 SHIVA V, 1988, STAYING ALIVE WOMEN SHIVA V, 1991, VIOLENCE GREEN REVOL SHIVA V, 1994, CLOSE HOME WOMEN REC SHRADERFRECHETT.KS, 1991, RISK RATIONALITY PHI SIMONIAN L, 1988, ECOLOGIST, V18, P82 SITARZ D, 1993, AGENDA 21 EARTH SUMM SMITH RF, 1973, HIST ENTOMOLOGY STERN VM, 1959, HILGARDIA, V29, P81 SWEZEY SL, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P29 SWEZEY SL, 1988, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V1, P46 SZASZ A, 1994, ECOPOPULISM TOXIC WA TAIT J, 1987, MANAGEMENT PESTS PES THAMAN RR, 1984, S PACIFIC FORUM, V1, P165 THRUPP LA, 1988, LAT AM PERSPECT, V59, P37 THRUPP LA, 1990, AGR HUMAN VALUES, V7, P62 THRUPP LA, 1990, INT J ENV STUD A, V36, P173 VALLETTE J, 1990, INT TRADE WASTES GRE VANDENBOSCH R, 1989, PESTICIDE CONSPIRACY WALLERSTEIN I, 1974, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM, V1 WALLERSTEIN I, 1979, CAPITALIST WORLD EC WALLERSTEIN I, 1980, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM, V2 WALLERSTEIN I, 1989, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM, V3 WEIR D, 1981, CIRCLE POISON PESTIC WEIR D, 1987, BHOPAL SYNDROME PEST WESTING AH, 1984, HERBICIDES WAR LONG WHITE A, 1991, RISK ANAL, P405 WILLIAMS RG, 1986, EXPORT AGR CRISIS CE WRIGHT A, 1986, LAT AM PERSPECT, V13, P26 WRIGHT A, 1990, DEATH R GONZALEZ MOD YEARLEY S, 1991, GREEN CASE SOCIOLOGY ZAHM SH, 1993, AM J IND MED, V24, P753 ZILBERMAN D, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P518 NR 193 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 50 IS 2 BP 151 EP 169 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RU984 UT ISI:A1995RU98400003 ER PT J AU HUTTNER, SL MILLER, HI LEMAUX, PG TI US AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY - STATUS AND PROSPECTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID OVERSIGHT AB Agricultural applications are extending the already impressive record of biotechnology's contributions to medicine. In many ways, agriculture offers a more ready fit for modern genetic techniques, as single gene methods extend directly from traditional breeding techniques. This article describes how the new genetic tools are being applied to enhance many aspects of the food production system. Crop protection through genetic resistance to insects and disease is among the earliest, Significant agronomic contributions. Food characteristics, including nutrient composition, fat content, allergenicity, texture, and flavor, are being modified through selectively targeted metabolic changes. Raw materials for food processing and fermentation are similarly modified and improved. New genetic techniques also present opportunities for introducing products of commodity crops into entirely new markets, including industrial oils, plastics,and pharmaceuticals. Taken together, biotechnology's value-added products, improved food and feed, and enhanced agronomic crop performance bolster the economic competitiveness of American farmers. There are also environmental advances, including biological control strategies and the use of microorganisms and plants to remove heavy metals and other contaminants from soil and agricultural run-off and ground waters. The ultimate impact of agricultural biotechnology, however, is far from certain. Several factors, some well defined and others less transparent, affect the directions and pace of development. These include public funding for basic research and for R&D, governmental regulation of research and products, and enhancement of linkages between the research and agriculture sectors. Compared to public investment in human and microbial genetics, federal support for the plant sciences has been dismal. USDA and EPA have proposed and implemented new regulatory requirements that are remarkable both for their lack of focus on genuine biosafety risks and for their unequivocal anti-innovation and anti-competitiveness effects. The relatively short history of U.S. policy on agricultural biotechnology may provide a microcosm view both of the introduction of technological innovations, more generally, and of emerging patterns of dominance of major agricultural firms in the worldwide economic arena. The analysis of that history suggests that a new paradigm for technological advancement is needed. C1 STANFORD UNIV,INST INT STUDIES,STANFORD,CA 94305. STANFORD UNIV,HOOVER INST,STANFORD,CA 94305. UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT PLANT BIOL,BERKELEY,CA 94720. RP HUTTNER, SL, UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,SYSTEMWIDE BIOTECHNOL RES & EDUC PROGRAM,345 GIANNINI HALL,BERKELEY,CA 94720. CR 1987, FED REG 0616, V52, P22892 1992, FED REGISTER, V57, P22984 1995, FED REG 1123 *NAT AC SCI, 1987, INTR REC DNA ENG ORG *NAT RES COUNC, 1989, FIELD TEST GEN MOD O *NAT RES COUNC, 1992, 21ST PLANT BIOL RES *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1993, SAF CONS BIOT SCAL C *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1993, SAF EV FOOD DER MOD *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1993, TRAD CROP BREED PRAC *UNIDO WHO UNEP WO, 1992, BIOT FOR EUR, V9, P218 *US NAT BIOT POL B, 1992, REP BIOT BECK CI, 1993, BIOTECHNOLOGY, V22, P1524 FIKSEL J, 1988, NATO ASI SERIES HUTTNER SL, 1992, BIO-TECHNOL, V10, P967 LANDSMANN J, 1992, 2ND INT S GOSL LEE KB, BIOTECH 95 REFORM RE MACKENZIE DR, 1990, 1ST INT S AGR RES I MILLER HI, 1990, SCIENCE, V250, P490 MOONEY HA, 1990, INTRO GENETICALLY MO, P19 RABINO I, 1991, SCI TECHNOL, V16, P70 RATNER M, 1990, BIO-TECHNOL, V8, P196 SEARS R, 1995, OPP300370 DOCK CONTR NR 22 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 50 IS 1 BP 25 EP 39 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RT490 UT ISI:A1995RT49000003 ER PT J AU FRISVOLD, GB CONDON, P TI THE CONVENTION ON BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY - IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GENETIC-RESOURCES; RIGHTS; FUTURE AB Among other goals, the Convention on Biological Diversity addresses two controversies surrounding the international system of exchange of crop genetic resources (CGRs). One debate has been over the definition of property rights over CGRs and the distribution of benefits from their use. The second has been over the adequacy of incentives for conserving CGRs both in situ and ex situ. This paper examines how these two debates are linked and reviews previous multilateral attempts to resolve disputes over genetic resources. The scope for Convention provisions and proposed implementation strategies to resolve disputes and achieve stated goals are assessed. The Convention signals wider international acceptance of both intellectual property rights (IPRs) over biological inventions and the need for multilateral assistance for CGR preservation. There remains disagreement over how strict future IPRs should become, however, and current proposals to implement the Convention appear inadequate to achieve their stated objectives. Future controversies remain over four broad issues: (1) the breadth of IPR protection, including the future of research and farmer exemptions to patents, (2) control over operation of international seed banks, (3) the need for an international biosafety protocol regulating biotechnology testing and trade, and (4) how biodiversity conservation funds will be raised and allocated. RP FRISVOLD, GB, US ECON RES SERV,DIV NAT RESOURCES & ENVIRONM,ROOM 408,1301 NEW YORK AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20009. CR *AM SEED TRAD ASS, 1984, POS PAP AM SEED TRAD *KEYST CTR, 1988, FIN REP KEYST INT DI *KEYST CTR, 1990, FIN CONS REP KEYST I *KEYST CTR, 1991, KEYST INT DIAL SER P *NAT RES COUNC, 1991, MAN GLOB GEN RES US *NAT RES COUNC, 1993, CROP DIV I RESP MAN *PION HIBR INT INC, 1984, 1983 PLANT BREED RES *SAH AL MAL, 1984, SEEDS FOOD SEC *UN, 1983, 16TH M *UN, 1987, FAO CPGR8710 *UN, 1987, FAO CPGR876 *UN, 1987, FAO CPGR877 *UN, 1989, 25TH SESS FOOD AGR O *UN, 1991, 26TH FAO GLOB SYST C *UN, 1992, CONV BIOL DIV FIN TE *US C, 1987, OTAF330 *WORLD RES I, 1993, BIOD PROSP ALTIERI MA, 1993, ECOL ECON, V7, P93 BARTON J, 1991, INTELLECTUAL PROPERT BARTON JH, 1988, SEEDS SOVEREIGNTY US BLUM E, 1993, ENVIRONMENT, V35, P38 BROWN G, 1985, EC ECOSYSTEM MANAGEM BROWN G, 1987, PRESERVATION VALUATI BROWN WR, 1988, SEEDS SOVEREIGNTY US BRUSH SB, 1992, WORLD DEV, V20, P1617 CHRISTENSEN E, 1987, STANFORD LAW REV, V40, P279 CHRISTOPHER W, 1994, COMMUNICATION 0816 COHEN JI, 1992, BIOPOLICY INT SERIES, V3 COX TS, 1988, SEEDS SOVEREIGNTY US DAY KA, 1993, CONTEMP POLICY ISSUE, V11, P1 DUESING JH, 1992, AGRO FOOD IND HI TEC, V3 DUVICK DN, 1986, ECON BOT, V40, P289 ECHEVERRIA R, 1989, AGR RES POLICY INT Q FRISVOLD GB, 1994, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V12, P1 GAPUD VP, 1987, JUN WORKSH IS THER N GODDEN D, 1984, FOOD POLICY, V9, P206 GOODMAN M, 1991, FORUM APPL RES PUBLI, V6, P74 GORE A, 1992, EARTH BALANCE ECOLOG HUFFMAN WE, 1994, MAR NC 208 IMP AN DE KLOPPENBURG J, 1987, TECHNOL REV, V90, P47 KLOPPENBURG JR, 1988, 1ST SEED POLITICAL E PLUCKNETT D, 1987, GENE BANKS WORLDS FO QUEROL D, 1991, 3 3RD WORLD NETW PAP REID WR, 1992, BIOPOLICY INT SERIES, V2 RUTTAN VW, 1982, AGR RES POLICY SEDJO RA, 1992, J LAW ECON, V35, P199 SHANDS HL, 1994, UNPUB GERMPLASM DEV SIMPSON RD, 1992, RESOURCES FAL, P1 THIRTLE C, 1985, SO J AGR EC, V17, P33 WILKES G, 1991, BIODIVERSITY CULTURE YUDELMAN M, 1994, FEEDING 10 BILLION P NR 51 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 50 IS 1 BP 41 EP 54 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RT490 UT ISI:A1995RT49000004 ER PT J AU OLLINGER, M POPE, L TI STRATEGIC RESEARCH INTERESTS, ORGANIZATIONAL-BEHAVIOR, AND THE EMERGING MARKET FOR THE PRODUCTS OF PLANT BIOTECHNOLOGY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; FIRM AB As plant biotechnology products become commercialized, some researchers have questioned the goals of organizations using this new technology. Just and Hueth believe that chemical/pesticide companies will dominate plant biotechnology research and will not develop plants that can substitute for chemicals. Other economists, such as Teece, believe that firm-specific resources rather than existing markets determine firm growth. In this vein, it is hypothesized that differences among pesticide and other firms leads to a diverse range of plant biotechnology-derived plants. The main conclusion is that firm-specific resources rather than existing firm business categories determine research effort. It is also concluded that since firm resources and business interests vary within organizational groupings, firms within the same industry may seek growth in diverse ways. Plant biotechnology field-test permit data is used to support these conclusions. RP OLLINGER, M, US ECON RES SERV,1301 NEW YORK AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. CR *MOOD INV SERV, 1990, MOOD IND MAN *NAT AGR CHEM ASS, 1971, IND PROF AUCS Z, 1987, REV ECON STAT, V59, P567 BURRIL GS, 1992, BIOTECH 92 PROMISE R CHANDLER AD, 1977, VISIBLE HAND MANAGER FINNEGAN MB, 1981, LAW BUSINESS LICENSI FOSTER R, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS GALBRAITH JK, 1952, AM CAPITALISM GRABOWSKI HG, 1978, J LAW ECON, V21, P133 HAMILTON J, 1992, BUSINESSWEEK 1014 JAFFEE A, 1985, AM ECON REV, V76, P984 JUST RE, 1993, AM J AGR EC, V75 KAMIEN MI, 1982, MARKET STRUCTURE INN KIDD G, 1987, BIOTECHNOLOGY, V5, P133 KLOPPENBURG JR, 1991, 1ST SEED POLITICAL E KRIMSKY S, 1993, AGR BIOTECHNOLOGY EN MCMULLEN N, 1987, SEEDS WORLD AGR PROG OLLINGER M, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P503 OSTEEN C, 1989, USDA622 AGR REP PENROSE ET, 1959, THEORY GROWTH FIRM REINGANUM JF, 1983, AM ECON REV, V73, P741 TEECE DJ, 1982, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V3, P39 THOMAS LG, 1990, RAND J ECON, V21, P497 TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 WIGGINS SN, 1983, ECON INQ, V21, P115 WILLIAMSON OE, 1985, EC I CAPITALISM NR 26 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 50 IS 1 BP 55 EP 68 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RT490 UT ISI:A1995RT49000005 ER PT J AU MARTENS, B SARETZKI, T TI INDUSTRIAL BIOTECHNOLOGY IN AUSTRIA, GERMANY, AND SWITZERLAND - EMPIRICAL PATTERNS OF ITS RELEVANCE AND ITS HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Data about economic and occupational characteristics of industrial biotechnology in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland were analyzed. The results referred to the relationships between organizational, sectoral, temporal, and regional variables. By means of cluster analyses, different types of organizations were differentiated according to the relative importance of biotechnological activities for the specific organization in question. As another important topic in this context, the durations of such activities were explored by multivariate analysis. The results give evidence to the notion that recent industrial biotechnology is strongly influenced by the supplying industry, and that the historical development of biotechnological activities follows certain patterns. C1 UNIV HAMBURG,INST GEN BOT,HAMBURG,GERMANY. RP MARTENS, B, UNIV TUBINGEN,DEPT SOCIOL,WILHELMSTR 36,D-72074 TUBINGEN,GERMANY. CR *OFF TECHN ASS, 1984, COMM BIOT INT AN *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1989, BIOT EC WID IMP *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1988, NEW DEV BIOT, V4 CATENHUSEN W, 1987, CHANCEN RISIKEN GENT DOLATA U, 1994, 394 HAMB I SOZ FORSC HENCKEL D, 1989, RAUMLICHE VERTEILUNG HOHMEYER O, 1993, GESETZLICHE REGELUNG JONAS M, 1993, RAHMENBEDINGUNGEN PR KAUFMAN L, 1990, FINDING GROUPS DATA LUX A, 1993, WIRTSCHAFTSDIENST, V7, P369 MARTENS B, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V48, P45 MULLER R, 1991, ERFOLG ENTWICKLUNG G OAKEY R, 1990, NEW FIRMS BIOTECHNOL ORSENIGO L, 1989, EMERGENCE BIOTECHNOL REISS T, 1990, PERSPEKTIVEN BIOTECH SCHMID RD, 1991, BIOTECH FORUM EUROPE, V8, P312 STBURRILL G, 1993, 8TH BIOT 94 LONG TER STRECK WR, 1994, FORSCHUNGSTATIGKEIT TEITELMAN R, 1989, GENE DREAMS WALL STR NR 19 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 50 IS 1 BP 69 EP 77 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RT490 UT ISI:A1995RT49000006 ER PT J AU GASTON, C GLOBERMAN, S VERTINSKY, I TI BIOTECHNOLOGY IN FORESTRY - TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TREE IMPROVEMENT AB This paper provides an assessment of the state of the art and future prospects of biotechnology application in forestry. In particular it examines the influence of (1) derived demand for research and development (R&D), (2) the nature of R&D suppliers and their motives, and (3) the regulatory system on rates of innovation of biotechnology in forestry. The paper identifies areas of ''market failure'' caused by policy-related uncertainty, tenuous land ownership structure, long intergenerational horizons and the public nature of many of the goods and services produced by the forest. Improvements in tenure and stumpage systems to increase the certainty of property rights, provision of compensation for public-goods production and increases in the level of funding for R&D are required. In the short run, funding of technology transfers to forestry from other fields of biotechnology applications are likely to provide the highest marginal returns on investment. The paper concludes that biotechnology in forestry applications holds a significant promise in the long run. It offers the possibility of improved forest conservation as well as increased quantity and quality of timber harvested, allowing for the customization of fiber production. Customization of fiber production may result in downstream product differentiation and cost reductions. C1 UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,FOREST ECON & POLICY ANAL RES UNIT,VANCOUVER,BC V6T 1Z3,CANADA. WESTERN WASHINGTON UNIV,BELLINGHAM,WA 98225. CR *AGR CONS, 1993, BT CROP PROT *CAN FOR SERV, 1994, BUS OPP DOC WEED BIO *DEL TOUCH MAN CON, 1992, EC BEN ASS SPRUC BUD CHELIAK WM, 1990, CAN J FOREST RES, V20, P452 DORWORTH C, 1992, BIOCONTROL FOREST WE, P1 HAINES R, 1994, FAO118 FOR PAP HAMMATT N, 1992, WORLD J MICROB BIOT, V8, P369 HYDE WF, 1992, EC BENEFITS FORESTRY MULLIN TJ, 1992, MAKING CHOICES SEEDL NAMKOONG G, 1990, PLANT BREEDING REV, V8, P139 PIMENTEL D, 1992, BIOSCIENCE, V42, P750 SUTTON BCS, 1993, J FOREST, V91, P34 TROTTER PC, 1990, TAPPI J, V73, P198 VANFRANKENHUYZE.K, 1993, BACILLUS THURINGIENS VERTINSKY I, 1994, TRENDS APPLICATIONS WEISER J, 1986, MITTEILUNGEN BIOL BU, P37 NR 16 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 50 IS 1 BP 79 EP 92 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RT490 UT ISI:A1995RT49000007 ER PT J AU BURTON, M TI THE IMPACT OF RBST ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY SECTOR SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A farm level, econometric, cost function is estimated for dairy farms in England and Wales, which is then used as a basis for estimating changes in the size structure and regional distribution of milk production. rBST is introduced as a yield-enhancing factor, and the effect of this innovation on costs generates alternative scenarios for milk production. The results indicate that the adoption of rBST causes some structural change, but essentially this would be limited to a minor reinforement of the underlying pressures for structural change that exist already. RP BURTON, M, UNIV MANCHESTER,SCH ECON STUDIES,CAFRE,MANCHESTER MP13 9PL,LANCS,ENGLAND. CR 1987, OFFICIAL J EUROPEA C, V76, P22 1990, OFFICIAL J EUROPEA C, V56, P25 *COMM EUR COMM, 1990, BST COM89379 *COMM EUR COMM, 1993, COM93605 *MILK MARK BOARD, 1985 6 MILK COSTS EN *MILK MARK BOARD, MILK QUOT 1ST 3 YEAR *MILK MARK BOARD, 1994, DAIR FACTS FIG 1993 BENT M, 1993, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVI BENT M, 1993, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVI BIGGS H, 1993, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVI BUCKWELL A, 1993, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVI BURTON MP, 1993, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVI BUTLER LJ, 1992, BOVINE SOMATOTROPIN CHAMBERS RG, 1988, APPLIED PRODUCTION A MUKHTAR SM, 1990, J AGR ECON, V41, P9 OXLEY J, 1989, CAN J AGR ECON, V37, P393 SMITH BJ, 1992, BOVINE SOMATOTROPIN NR 17 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1995 VL 50 IS 1 BP 93 EP 104 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RT490 UT ISI:A1995RT49000008 ER PT J AU PORTER, AL DETAMPEL, MJ TI TECHNOLOGY OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB We present an approach to efficiently generate effective intelligence on emerging technologies. This approach draws on monitoring and bibliometrics to mine the wealth of information available in major public electronic databases. The approach uses new software to expedite secondary analyses of database searches on topics of interest. We illustrate the range of information profiles possible by examining research and development (R&D) publications and patents pertaining to electronics assembly and, more specifically, to multichip module development. RP PORTER, AL, GEORGIA INST TECHNOL,CTR TECHNOL POLICY & ASSESSMENT,ATLANTA,GA 30332. CR *US NAT SCI BOARD, 1993, SCI ENG IND 1993 BRIGHT JR, 1978, PRACTICAL TECHNOLOGY CALLON M, 1991, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG, V3, P3 COATES JF, 1986, ISSUES MANAGEMENT CUNNINGHAM S, 1994, AUTOMATED INDEXING B DAVIS R, 1973, PRACTICAL GUIDE TECH, P601 FRANKLIN JJ, 1988, HDB QUANTIATIVE STUD GARFIELD E, 1989, METRIC SCI ADVENT SC IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI PICKIN KOSTOFF RM, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P207 KOSTOFF RN, 1993, EVALUATING R D IMPAC, P63 KOSTOFF RN, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P231 KOSTOFF RN, 1994, 4TH INT C MAN TECHN KOSTOFF RN, 1994, COMPETITIVE INTELLIG, V5 LEMONS KE, 1992, IMPACT ASSESSMENT B, V10, P57 MARTIN BR, 1990, RECENT TRENDS OUTPUT, V17 MELKERS J, 1993, EVALUATING R D IMPAC, P43 MOGEE ME, 1993, PATENT CITATION MAPP NAISBITT J, 1982, MEGATRENDS NAISBITT J, 1989, MEGATRENDS 2000 NARIN F, 1992, NOV VPP PROF M NURNB NARIN F, 1994, BIBLIOMETRICS THEORY, V18 PORTER AL, 1988, TECHNOLOGY FEASIBILI PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME PRICE DJ, 1963, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI REITMAN W, 1985, AUTOMATED INFORMATIO RIP A, 1988, HDB QUANTITATIVE STU SMALL H, 1974, SCI STUD, V4, P17 TIJSSEN RJW, 1994, EVALUATION REV, V18 VANSTON JH, 1985, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI WENK E, 1977, INTERINSTITUTIONAL N, P153 NR 31 TC 19 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 49 IS 3 BP 237 EP 255 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RM598 UT ISI:A1995RM59800001 ER PT J AU KIM, N MAHAJAN, V SRIVASTAVA, RK TI DETERMINING THE GOING MARKET VALUE OF A BUSINESS IN AN EMERGING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY - THE CASE OF THE CELLULAR COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Given the phenomenal growth or the anticipation of growth in certain information technology industries, concerns for economy of scale, market access and expansion, and the need for ongoing research and development are resulting in mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances. A key question in such industries is what is, or should be the going market value of a business? This paper suggests an approach to imbed market penetration models in the popular value-based planning approach suggested by Rappaport [36] to obtain the going market value of a business. The model developed in implementing the approach is tailored for the cellular communications industry. Limitations and adaptations of the approach to other industries are discussed. C1 UNIV TEXAS,INST IC2,DEPT MKT,AUSTIN,TX 78712. HONG KONG UNIV SCI & TECHNOL,HONG KONG,HONG KONG. CR 1987, BUSINESS WEEK 0921, P84 1989, BUSINESS WEEK 0807, P22 1990, FEDERAL TAX HDB 1990, FORTUNE 0604, P45 1992, BUSINESS WEEK 0224, P36 1992, BUSINESS WEEK 1117 1992, ECONOMIST, V22, P61 1992, FORTUNE 0327, P104 1992, NY TIMES *BOOZ A HAM INC, 1981, TECHN MAN SURV RES *US DEP COMM, 1988, COMP ASS US CELL RAD ALBERTS WW, 1984, INTERFACES, V14, P138 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BLYTHE ML, 1986, J BUS STRAT, V6, P48 BRAND S, 1987, MEDIA LAB BROMILY P, 1986, HDB BUSINESS STRATEG CONLEY P, 1981, CORPORATE STRATEGY P, P132 DAY GS, 1988, J MARKETING, V52, P45 DAY GS, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P156 DHEBAR A, 1985, MARKET SCI, V4, P336 DRUCKER PF, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V66, P45 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GERSTEIN MS, 1987, TECHNOLOGY CONNECTIO GILMAN JJ, 1982, RES MANAGE, V25, P34 GREENBERG EM, 1991, POP OUT CHANGING DYN HARVEY CM, 1992, INTERFACES, V6, P47 HEELER RM, 1980, MANAGE SCI, V26, P1007 HOUSE CH, 1991, HARVARD BUS REV, V69, P91 KEEN PGW, 1986, COMPETING TIME KERIN RA, 1990, CONT PERSPECTIVES ST LOEWENSTEIN G, 1992, Q J ECON, V107, P573 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 NAYLOR TH, 1982, MANAGE SCI, V28, P1166 PORTER ME, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P149 RAPPAPORT A, 1986, CREATING SHAREHOLDER ROGERS EM, 1986, COMMUNICATION TECHNO SCHNAARS SP, 1991, MARKETING STRATEGY SRIVASTAVA RK, 1991, CONCURRENT LIFE CYCL, P115 SRIVIVASAN V, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P169 THALER R, 1981, ECON LETT, V8, P201 WISEMAN C, 1985, STRATEGY COMPUTERS I WOO CY, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P1031 NR 43 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 49 IS 3 BP 257 EP 279 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RM598 UT ISI:A1995RM59800002 ER PT J AU SPEECE, MW MACLACHLAN, DL TI APPLICATION OF A MULTIGENERATION DIFFUSION-MODEL TO MILK CONTAINER TECHNOLOGY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION DIFFUSION; EXPERIENCE CURVES; SUBSTITUTION AB A recently introduced multi-generation model [18], developed for high-technology industries and tested on a high-tech product class, is applied to a very different situation. It is tested by fitting and forecasting use of three generations of packaging technology in the fluid milk market, glass, paperboard cartons, and plastic, across two submarkets: gallons and half gallons. Results in the gallon market show that the model can be successfully applied to industries not usually associated with high technology, and to specific submarkets, rather than across a whole product class. It is less successful in the half-gallon market, which violates some of the assumptions underlying the model. Extension of the model with the addition of pricing and growth terms allows slightly improved forecasts over the basic model without these terms. C1 WASHINGTON UNIV,DEPT MKT & INT BUSINESS,SEATTLE,WA. RP SPEECE, MW, ASIAN INST TECHNOL,SCH MANAGEMENT,GPO BOX 2754,BANGKOK 10501,THAILAND. CR *SAS I INC, 1984, SAS ETS US GUID VERS *US BUR LAB STAT, 1974, PROD PRIC PRIC IND *USDA, 1987, 14 REP BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BASS FM, 1980, J BUS, V53, S51 BASS FM, 1982, MARKET SCI, V1, P371 BLACKMAN AW, 1971, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V2, P269 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 DOLAN RJ, 1981, J MARKETING, V45, P52 FEICHTINGER G, 1982, OPER RES LETT, V1, P236 JEULAND AP, 1982, TIMS STUDIES MANAGEM, V18, P1 KALISH S, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P135 MACHNIC JA, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P141 MAHAJAN V, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1589 MAHAJAN V, 1979, J MARKETING, V43, P55 MAHAJAN V, 1982, MANAGE SCI, V28, P1087 MAHAJAN V, 1985, 07048 SAG U PAP SER MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MEADE N, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P429 NORTON JA, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1069 NORTON JA, 1992, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V33, P66 ROBINSON B, 1975, MANAGE SCI, V21, P1113 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P89 SHARIF MN, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P301 SILVENNOINEN P, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P273 SILVERMAN BG, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P215 SPEECE M, 1991, J INT FOOD AGRIBUSIN, V3, P43 STEPHENS KL, 1977, THESIS U WASHINGTON STERN MO, 1975, TECH FORECASTING SOC, V7, P57 STOVER JG, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V12, P337 SULTAN F, 1990, J MARKETING RES, V27, P70 THOMPSON GL, 1984, MARKET SCI, V3, P148 WITTINK DR, 1987, INT J FORECASTING, V3, P445 NR 34 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 49 IS 3 BP 281 EP 295 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RM598 UT ISI:A1995RM59800003 ER PT J AU DOMS, ME DUNNE, T TI ENERGY INTENSITY, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, AND ADVANCED MANUFACTURING-TECHNOLOGY USAGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DEMAND AB This article reports on the relationship between the usage of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs) and energy consumption patterns in manufacturing plants. Using data from the Survey of Manufacturing Technology and the 1987 Census of Manufactures, we model the energy intensity and the electricity intensity of plants as functions of AMT usage and plant age. The main findings are that plants that utilize AMTs are less-energy intensive than plants not using AMTs, but consume proportionately more electricity as a fuel source. Additionally, older plants are generally more energy intensive and rely on fossil fuels to a greater extent than younger plants. C1 UNIV OKLAHOMA,DEPT ECON,NORMAN,OK 73019. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1986, EL EC GROWTH *US BUR CENS, MAN TECHN 1988 ABEL AB, 1983, ECONOMETRICA, V51, P1839 AYRES R, 1991, ENERGY ENV 21ST CENT, P427 BAILEY MN, BROOKINGS PAPERS MIC, P187 BERNDT ER, 1975, REV ECON STAT, V57, P259 BERNDT ER, 1984, MODELING MEASURING N, P259 BERNDT ER, 1990, J PROD ANAL, V2, P69 DOMS ME, 1992, THESIS U WISCONSIN M DUNNE T, 1993, UNPUB DEMAND LABOR U JORGENSON DW, 1984, ENERGY J, V5, P11 JOYCE WH, 1991, ENERGY ENV 21ST CENT, P427 LAMBSON VE, 1991, INT J IND ORGAN, V9, P171 OLLEY S, 1992, CES922 DISC PAP ROSENBERG N, 1983, ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY, P279 ROSS M, 1991, ENERGY ENV 21ST CENT, P297 SCHMIDT PS, 1987, ENERGY, V12, P1111 SCHURR S, 1983, ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY, P203 SOLOW JL, 1987, AM ECON REV, V77, P605 SPARROW FT, 1993, ENERGY, V18, P1067 NR 20 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 49 IS 3 BP 297 EP 310 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RM598 UT ISI:A1995RM59800004 ER PT J AU GANDER, JP TI ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND TEACHING PRODUCTIVITIES - A CASE-STUDY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper uses University of Utah data on funded research output, teaching output, faculty, and student enrollment far the academic years 1991-1992 to 1993-1994 for a sample of 31 academic departments to estimate joint-product production functions. It is a micro-micro theory approach. Single equation ordinary least squares (OLS) and simultaneous equations generalized least squares (GLS) by linear structural relations (LISREL) estimating methods are used. Research and teaching productivities are compared to the Schumpeterian hypothesis relating to department size and research productivity. Falling teaching productivity and rising research productivity as faculty size increases are among the results. The time effect on production performance was not significant. Implications for the supply of basic research are discussed. Various hypotheses and implications for social policy are discussed. RP GANDER, JP, UNIV UTAH,DEPT ECON,308 BUSINESS CLASSROOM,SALT LAKE CITY,UT 84112. CR *NAT SCI BOARD, 1991, SCI ENG IND ACS ZJ, 1991, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG BALDWIN WL, 1987, MARKET STRUCTURE TEC BARNETT R, 1992, J HIGH EDUC, V63, P619 COHEN WM, 1989, HDB IND ORG, V2 CORDES C, 1990, CHRON HIGHER EDUC, V37, A1 CORDES C, 1990, CHRON HIGHER EDUC, V37, A22 FISHER FM, 1973, J POLITICAL EC, V81, P56 FRISCH R, 1965, THEORY PRODUCTION GANDER JP, 1972, ECONOMETRICA, V40, P943 GRILICHES Z, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P1661 JORESKOG KG, 1982, J MARKETING RES, V19, P404 JORESKOG KG, 1989, LISREL 7 USERS REFER KAMIEN MI, 1982, MARKET STRUCTURE INN LEIBENSTEIN H, 1979, J ECON LIT, V17, P477 LIEBENSTEIN H, 1966, AM ECON REV, V56, P392 RAO P, 1969, ECONOMETRICA, V37, P737 VINOD HD, 1968, ECONOMETRICA, V36, P322 VINOD HD, 1969, ECONOMETRICA, V37, P739 ZELLNER A, 1966, ECONOMETRICA, V34, P784 NR 20 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1995 VL 49 IS 3 BP 311 EP 319 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RM598 UT ISI:A1995RM59800005 ER PT J AU TAKEDA, S TI THE TASK AND CHALLENGE FOR JAPAN IN THE 21ST-CENTURY - AN INTRODUCTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Since the collapse of an asset-inflated economic bubble in Japan started in the second half of the 1980s, it has brought about an entirely different assessment of this country. For all admiration claimed for it, the Japanese economy proved to be subject to Newton's law of gravitation. Opinions were beginning to divide over Japanese technology, too, after it was once believed to be leading the world. In fact, Japan has a big task to solve in the years before the 21st century. How will the Japanese face up to upheavals in the world, or how will they respond to their domestic problems such as demographic and rigid structures? Few messages from Japan have so far been available with regard to these questions. The world is left in a puzzle over the questions. Our task in this issue is to make clear what the Japanese are thinking and preparing to do in the years before the 21st century, and ''what it is that they have to produce an influence on the world.'' Specifically, discussions center on moves toward a knowledge-based society, research and development projects, manufacturing technologies, business strategies, industrial ecology, and the possibilities of a trilemma. In this article, I make some observations as a background to those subjects. C1 TOKAI UNIV,DEPT PHOTON,HIRATSUKA,KANAGAWA 25912,JAPAN. CR AXELROD R, 1984, EVOLUTION COOPERATIO BENEDICT R, 1967, CHRYSANTHEMUM SWORD BREZINSKI Z, 1972, FRAGILE BLOSSOM CRIS CULBERTSON JM, 1985, COMPETITION CONSTRUC DERTOUZOS ML, 1989, MADE AM GIBSON DV, 1994, R D COLLABORATION TR GILDER G, 1989, MICROCOSM QUANTUM RE GILDER G, 1989, MICROCOSM HOBHOUSE S, 1985, SEEDS CHANGE TOCHY N, CONTROL YOUR DESTINY TOYNBEE AJ, 1956, HISTORIANS APPROACH TOYNBEE AJ, 1960, STUDY HIST YOSHIKAWA H, 1994, MADE JAPAN NR 13 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 49 IS 2 BP 113 EP 126 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE112 UT ISI:A1995RE11200001 ER PT J AU WATANABE, C TI THE FEEDBACK LOOP BETWEEN TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT - AN EXAMINATION OF JAPANESE INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The Japanese economy has grown remarkably because of the driving force of industrial development. This has been largely attributed to the feedback loop between technological development and economic growth. Japan may now face the prospect of the loop's deconstruction, however, because industry's research and development (R&D) investment has stagnated as a result of the ''bubble economy'' and its bursting. This paper first examines the possibility by reviewing systems of Japan's industrial technology. Second, it conducts an empirical analysis of the current state of R&D activities in Japan's manufacturing industry. Third, it analyzes the impact of such activities; and fourth, it explains the structural background of a stagnation of R&D activities. RP WATANABE, C, IIASA,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR *AG IND SCI TECHN, 1970, AIST INTR AISTS POL *AG IND SCI TECHN, 1987, 20 YEARS HIST LARG S *AG IND SCI TECHN, 1993, IND SCI TECHN FRONT *DEP COMM, 1990, JAP SCI TECHN SUP *DEP DEF, 1989, CRIT TECHN PLAN *DEP DEF, 1990, CRIT TECHN PLAN *EC COUNC, 1992, 5 YEAR EC PLAN *EC PLANN AG, 1965, WHIT PAP JAP EC EC S *IND STRUCT COUNC, 1990, MITIS VIS 1990S *IND STRUCT COUNC, 1992, 14 PROP NEW EARTH PO *IND TECHN COUNC M, 1992, COMPR APPR NEW SUNSH *IND TECHN COUNC M, 1992, PROM TECHN FOST COE *IND TECHN COUNC M, 1992, R D SUBJ EXP BROK FI *MITI, 1970, ANN REP MITIS POL *MITI, 1988, WHIT PAP IND TECHN T *MITI, 1992, ISS TRENDS IND SCI T *SCI TECHN COUNC, 1986, GEN GUID SCI TECHN P *SCI TECHN COUNC, 1992, BAS POL SCI TECHN BARANSON J, 1967, TECHNOLOGY W CIVILIZ, V11, P251 CLINTON WJ, 1993, TECHNOLOGY AM EC GRO IIDA T, 1992, WEEKLY EC 0406 MOVERY DC, 1989, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E, P219 ODUM EP, 1963, ECOLOGY WATANABE C, 1991, INDUCING POWER JAPAN WATANABE C, 1991, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V50, P771 WATANABE C, 1992, 1992 AAAS NAT M CHIC WATANABE C, 1992, 2ND INT C STRAT R D WATANABE C, 1992, JPN WORLD ECON, V3, P357 WATANABE C, 1992, JPN WORLD ECON, V4, P47 WATANABE C, 1992, NIHON KEIZAI SHI NOV WATANABE C, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P481 WATANABE C, 1993, 1993 R D DYNAMICS NE WATANABE C, 1993, 7TH INT PHOT SCI ENG WATANABE C, 1993, ANN C JAPAN SOC SCI WATANABE C, 1993, BRIDGE, V23, P8 WATANABE C, 1993, IIASAS INT WORKSHOP WATANABE C, 1993, SPECIAL LECTURE MIT WATANABE C, 1993, UNUS TOKYO C GLOBAL WATANABE C, 1993, US NATIONAL HYDROGEN WATANABE C, 1994, 3RD INT SUP IND SUMM WATANABE C, 1994, INT C EC GROWTH CLEA WATANABE C, 1994, INT C UNDERSTANDING WATANABE C, 1994, MAASTRICHT WORKSHOP NR 43 TC 12 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 49 IS 2 BP 127 EP 145 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE112 UT ISI:A1995RE11200002 ER PT J AU KUMON, S TI CAN JAPAN SUCCEED IN CHIGYO-KA (INTELPRISE-FORMATION) SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB There are two aspects in today's information revolution that started in the late 1970s. The first is an aspect referred to as ''the third industrial revolution,'' which triggers the transition to the ''21st century system of Industrialization.'' The information revolution in this sense brings the creation of new ''breakthrough industries (new multimedia industries).'' And the second aspect of the information revolution possesses the characteristics of both a technological revolution and a social revolution and brings about the arrival of the third phase of the historical evolutionary process of the modern civilization, which proceeds through three phases, namely ''militarization, industrialization, and then informatization.'' If the bearers of modern industrialization are a ''group of enterprises'' that have been engaged in the race in order to gain ''wealth'' (generalized means of exchange/exploitation power), and if these enterprises' activities have been exercised in the world market where their products have been sold, then it is appropriate to call the bearers of informatization a ''group of intelprises.'' They will be engaged in the race to gain ''wisdom'' (generalized means of persuasion/induction power), then stages of their activities can be called a ''global intelplace'' where ''sharables,'' that is, information and knowledge, will be disseminated. And now, toward the 21st century, the third phase of modernization, which can be called the ''informatization/intelprise formation'' or the ''wisdom game'' (intellectualism), is about to begin. Japan's ''ie society (a society based on the ie principle-literally, it means ''house'' but here it is interpreted as cultural principle for organizing a society), which has been going through the process of evolution on the Japan Archipelago, has developed a network-based organization with little stratification within its infrastructure. In this sense, Japanese society can be characterized as a ''network-oriented society'' in which intelprises and an intelplace in the broad sense have functioned as the essential components of the society since Middle Ages. In general, an intelplace and intelprises that operate actively within this framework serve as the flexible bases for different types of social relations and institutions, such as states and markets and eventually integrate these into the society to a certain extent. In fact, it took place quite regularly during the modernization ''in the narrow sense,'' or Westernization of Japanese society after the Meiji Restoration. There exist some problems, however. Some of the characteristics found in Japanese society may become obstacles to activities aimed at the sharing and promotion of information and knowledge in the global intelplace and Japanese participation in the ''wisdom game.'' Badly needed are serious efforts for Japanese intelprise-formation to reduce these obstacles as much as possible. RP KUMON, S, INT UNIV JAPAN,CTR GLOBAL COMMUN,1ST FLOOR,HARKS ROPPONGI BLDG,6-15-21 ROPPONGI MINATOKU,TOKYO 106,JAPAN. CR BARLOW JP, 1992, COMMUN ACM, V35, P27 CRONIN AJ, 1994, DOING BUSINESS INTER GEORGE G, 1989, MICROCOSM QUANTUM RE GILDER G, 1993, LIFE TELEVISION COMI HIROSHI A, 1992, NHK DENSHI RIKKOKU N KANEKO H, 1993, KANRYO SHIHAI KITAOKA S, 1994, CHUO KORON APR, P30 MCINERY F, 1993, BEATING JAPAN QUARTERMANN JS, 1993, MATRIX NEWS, P1 RONFELDT D, 1993, UNPUB I MARKETS NETW NR 10 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 49 IS 2 BP 147 EP 164 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE112 UT ISI:A1995RE11200003 ER PT J AU AKIMOTO, Y TI A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON THE ECO-INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Recently the behavior of human society has created turbulance on the fundamental frame of coexistence with the global environment. Yet, if we repeat reckless environmental overkill that superimposes nothing more than ''rigid orders'' on human society, then civilization itself will enter a vicious circle of decline and lose even the strength and vitality to live in harmony with the environment. In this paper, the pitfalls of the ''environmental countermeasures'' we often encounter are briefly touched on. The most important matter for mankind is to incorporate into our human society the wisdom to be found in the working systems of life and earth. The industries that control the flow of energy and materials of human society, must step forth and lead an effort to construct multidimensional and autonomous feedback systems by creating various recycling loops and information/materials networks. RP AKIMOTO, Y, MITSUBISHI MAT CORP,1-5-1 OTEMACHI,CHIYODA KU,TOKYO 100,JAPAN. CR *SOC ENV TOX CHEM, 1991, TECHN FRAM LIF CYCL AKIMOO Y, 1994, IND ECOLOGY US JAPAN, P34 AKIMOT Y, 1993, J SCI POLICY RES MAN, V8, P19 AKIMOTO Y, 1994, IND ECOLOGY US JAPAN, P11 AKIMOTO Y, 1994, IND ECOLOGY US JAPAN, P75 AKIMOTO Y, 1994, PLUTONIUM, V6, P2 ALLENBY BR, 1994, GREENING IND ECOSYST GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI, P9 LORENZ E, 1979, DEC ANN M AAAS WASH LOVELOCK J, 1988, AGE GAIA BIOGRAPHY O LOVELOCK J, 1991, HEALING GAIA PRACTIC LOVELOCK JE, 1979, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E MATURANA HR, 1980, AUTOPOIESIS COGNITIO ODUM EP, 1983, BASIC ECOLOGY PAULI G, 1994, NOV JAP BUS LEAD C E PRIGOGINE I, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR NR 16 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 49 IS 2 BP 165 EP 173 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE112 UT ISI:A1995RE11200004 ER PT J AU NITTA, Y YODA, S TI CHALLENGING THE HUMAN CRISIS - THE TRILEMMA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The great increase in world population in the coming century will result in a human crisis of worldwide proportions. A new concept for describing and proposing solutions to this crisis, called the Trilemma, is described by the authors. To feed large and growing populations, humankind is now being forced to make the difficult choice between producing sufficient food for the world population and preserving the environment, or generating economic growth, requiring the consumption of energy and natural resources. These difficult choices present the Trilemma, a new concept that is composed of three dimensions: economic growth, resources such as energy and food, and the environment. None of these three dimensions can be optimized individually as they are mutually interdependent. This paper describes a possible world energy condition in the 21st century. Three scenarios of this energy consumption are presented and compared with the possible energy supply at that time. This supply is estimated from the extrapolation of the renewable energy development of the past and the possible fossil fuel supply. The comparison of the energy supply and the energy consumption indicates that the annual rate of economic growth in the developed region would be only 1% if the gross national product (GNP) per capita of the developing region increases gradually from 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions in 1990, to 1/10 in 2020, and finally to 1/3 in 2100. Another possibility is that if the GNP per capita of the developing region remains 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions between 1990 and 2100, the economic growth rate in the developed region could be as large as 3%. In the latter case, an energy shortage would develop in the middle of the 21st century, even if the fast breeder reactor were fully operational by the year 2030. Energy technological developments in Japan are also described as a part of the possible countermeasures against the Trilemma. RP NITTA, Y, CENT RES INST ELECT POWER IND,DIV RES & DEV,1-6-1 OOTEMACHI,CHIYODA KU,TOKYO 100,JAPAN. CR 1992, WORLD RESOURCES 1992, P350 *AT EN SOC JAP, 1994, FUND BAS FURTH DEV A KUWANO Y, 1992, LETS UTILIZE PHOTOVO LELAQUIL P, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY NITTA Y, 1992, STOP GLOBAL DESTRUCT, P21 NITTA Y, 1993, ESCAPE CATASTROPHE NITTA Y, 1994, MACRO REV, V6, P61 OKAMOTO H, 1993, J JAPAN I ENERGY, V72, P830 YODA S, 1994, 9TH PAC BAS NUCL C S NR 9 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 49 IS 2 BP 175 EP 194 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE112 UT ISI:A1995RE11200005 ER PT J AU YOSHIKAWA, H TI MANUFACTURING AND THE 21ST-CENTURY - INTELLIGENT MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS AND THE RENAISSANCE OF THE MANUFACTURING-INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The affluence of modern Western society can be said to be largely a result of the autonomous development of the manufacturing industry brought about by the industrial revolution. Japan's drive toward modernization represents an attempt to participate in the mechanism of what propels this cycle. As an eager and earnest latecomer, Japan joined in this ever-evolving productive system, this mechanism for creating an affluent society. And, as a result of its effort, Japanese producers now account for approximately 15% of the world's produtive output. Yet, the success of Japan revealed contradictions within the system. Indeed, although the system has continued to developed ever since the industrial revolution, it still provides its benefits to only about one-fourth of the world's population and has created a deluge of artificially produced items. The contradictions made apparent by the success of Japan cannot be resolved through the efforts of Japan alone. The advanced countries must work together to attain a manufacturing renaissance. It is also necessary to introduce new concepts, such as global productivity, and to establish the study of manufacturing as a separate discipline having a systematic structure comparable to that of other scientific and technical fields. Such moves toward the creation of a renaissance in manufacturing provide the contextual background for discussions on the feasibility of the Intelligent Manufacturing System (IMS) project among officials from six governmental bodies representing regions in Europe, North America, and the Pacific. This paper explains this contextual background and, for the attainment of the renaissance, points out the need for cooperation to assure constructive competition. RP YOSHIKAWA, H, UNIV TOKYO,7-3-1 HONGO,BUNKYO KU,TOKYO 113,JAPAN. CR 1988, JAPANESE CHOICE CONT 1990, WALL STREET J 0105 DERTOUZOS ML, 1989, MADE AM DRUCKER P, 1978, FOREIGN AFFAIRS DRUCKER PF, 1992, POST CAPITALIST SOC DRUCKER PF, 1993, MANAGING FUTURE GREENWOODS RJ, 1991, FW TAYLOR HEIM JA, 1992, MANUFACTURING SYSTEM VANWOLFEREN K, 1989, ENIGMA JAPANESE POWE YOSHIKAWA H, 1985, ROBOTICS HUMAN YOSHIKAWA H, 1994, TECHNOGLOBE NR 11 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 49 IS 2 BP 195 EP 213 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE112 UT ISI:A1995RE11200006 ER PT J AU AOI, J TI TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTS TOWARD THE 21ST-CENTURY - THE CASE OF TOSHIBA CORPORATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Growth of industry has been driven by technology innovation and is expected to turn into a new phase through creative technology innovation. The recent technology environment, however, has changed drastically. Instead of a technology breakthrough, which has played a leading part so far, fusion and integration of technologies will be key to future technology innovation. In this article Toshiba's case is introduced with regard to technological prospects in the fields of electronics, electric energy, and environment. Investment in research and development (R&D) increases rapidly along with the advance of technology. Strategic alliance that utilizes each partner's strength will be one of the options in the company's R&D management. Examples of international research collaboration are described in this article. RP AOI, J, TOSHIBA CO LTD,1-1-1 SHIBAURA,MINATO KU,TOKYO 10501,JAPAN. CR BRANSCOMB LM, 1993, CSIA10 HARV U OCC PA KODAMA F, 1991, ANAL JAPANESE HIGH T SCHLENDER BR, 1993, FORTUNE 1004 NR 3 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1995 VL 49 IS 2 BP 215 EP 227 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE112 UT ISI:A1995RE11200007 ER PT J AU HARMAN, WW TI GLOBAL DILEMMAS AND THE PLAUSIBILITY OF WHOLE-SYSTEM CHANGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Approaching the global dilemmas of our time with whole-system thinking implies that the much-talked-about problems of environmental degradation, deforestation, desertification, man-made climate change, chronic hunger and poverty, etc. are not so much problems as symptoms of a deeper-level condition that must be dealt with. This has to do with the basic incompatibility between widely proclaimed goals and underlying system assumptions. Pressures toward whole-system change are increasing in intensity. The critical issue is whether that change can be smooth and nondisruptive, or whether it will involve some disintegration of present structures. Constructive interventions are discussed. RP HARMAN, WW, INST NOET SCI,POB 909,SAUSALITO,CA 94966. NR 0 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 1 EP 12 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE111 UT ISI:A1995RE11100001 ER PT J AU SALO, AA BUNN, DW TI DECOMPOSITION IN THE ASSESSMENT OF JUDGMENTAL PROBABILITY FORECASTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DECISION-MAKING; CONSISTENCY; ADJUSTMENT; SCENARIOS AB Although the use of decomposition has won wide support as a means of improving the defensibility of judgmental forecasts, many decomposition techniques have encountered difficulties in ensuring the consistency of the respondent's probability statements. The more theoretically attractive methods have often become too complicated for practical assessment. In response to these difficulties, we present an approach that (1) aggregates judgmental forecasts and forecast adjustments based on partial probability information about conditioning scenarios and (2) guides the respondent into consistent replies by informing him about the judgments that are compatible with the earlier ones. The recent forecasting applications of hierarchical weighting are contrasted with the proposed approach. This is then illustrated with an example on the forecasting of hazardous emissions. C1 LONDON BUSINESS SCH,DEPT DECIS SCI,SUSSEX PL,REGENTS PK,LONDON NW1 4SA,ENGLAND. UNIV MANNHEIM,LEHRSTUHL ABWL,W-6800 MANNHEIM,GERMANY. CR ARMSTRONG JS, 1975, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V14, P257 ARMSTRONG JS, 1993, J FORECASTING, V12, P103 BADIRU AB, 1993, DECIS SUPPORT SYST, V10, P1 BENSON PG, 1993, J FORECASTING, V12, P139 BRAUERS J, 1988, J FORECASTING, V7, P31 BUNN D, 1991, MANAGE SCI, V37, P501 BUNN DW, 1993, EUR J OPER RES, V68, P291 DALKEY NC, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P341 DAVIS MHA, 1985, STOCHASTIC MODELLING DEKLUYVER CA, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P273 DUPERRIN JC, 1975, FUTURES, V7, P302 EDMUNDSON RH, 1990, J FORECASTING, V9, P305 FISCHHOFF B, 1988, INT J FORECASTING, V4, P331 FLORES BE, 1992, INT J FORECASTING, V7, P421 GOODWIN P, IN PRESS INT J FOREC JACKSON JE, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P263 KEEFER DL, 1983, MANAGE SCI, V29, P595 KELLEY P, 1976, FUTURES, V8, P341 KIRKWOOD GW, 1982, FUTURES, V14, P545 LAHDELMA R, 1991, THESIS HELSINKI U TE LEE JK, 1990, EXPERT SYSTEMS APPLI, V1, P39 MCNEES SK, 1990, INT J FORECASTING, V6, P287 MITCHELL RB, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V11, P133 MITCHELL RB, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V16, P343 MOSKOWITZ H, 1983, MANAGE SCI, V29, P735 SAATY TL, 1991, PREDICTION PROJECTIO SARIN RK, 1978, FUTURES, V10, P53 SARIN RK, 1979, MANAGE SCI, V25, P543 SCHOEMAKER PJH, 1991, J FORECASTING, V10, P549 SPETZLER CS, 1975, MANAGE SCI, V22, P340 WALLEY P, 1991, STATISTICAL REASONIN WOLFE C, 1990, J FORECASTING, V9, P389 WRIGHT G, 1985, DECISION SUPPORT SYS, V1, P333 WRIGHT G, 1988, J FORECASTING, V7, P185 NR 34 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 13 EP 25 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE111 UT ISI:A1995RE11100002 ER PT J AU BHARGAVA, SC TI A GENERALIZED FORM OF THE FISHER-PRY MODEL OF TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DIFFUSION AB In this paper we propose a possible generalization of the Fisher-Pry model of technology substitution by making the growth parameter time dependent. The computation of time dependence of the growth parameter allows us to measure departures from the Fisher-Pry description and suggests possibilities of making better forecasts. Three representative data sets have been analyzed to illustrate our arguments. RP BHARGAVA, SC, UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DELHI 110007,INDIA. CR 1976, JAPAN STATISTICAL YB BHARGAVA SC, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P319 FARRELL CJ, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P161 FISHER JE, 1971, LANCET, V2, P75 JAIN A, 1991, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V50, P496 KARMESHU BSC, 1985, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V15, P137 LINSTONE HA, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA LOTKA AJ, 1925, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 VOLTERRA V, 1982, APPLICABLE MATH NONP, V1 NR 11 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 27 EP 33 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE111 UT ISI:A1995RE11100003 ER PT J AU CHIANG, JT TI TECHNOLOGY POLICY PARADIGMS AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY STRATEGIES - 3 NATIONAL MODELS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper constructs and contrasts mission-oriented and diffusion-oriented policy paradigms for commercial technology and suggests that the U.S. and Japan, respectively, are representative of both. This paper also investigates the new American challenge of intellectual property institution in international competition and concludes that the U.S. and Japan appear to be two successful cases in forming synergistic relationships between technology policy and intellectual property system, the former in an offensive position and the latter in a defensive position. In this new era, the U.S. industry's traditional strength as a ''first mover'' in generating technology is better appropriated than before, and follower countries mainly relying on technology diffusion and application are in a very disadvantageous position. In the follower group, perhaps Japan is the only exception because its patent system is deliberately in favor of its industry at the expense of foreign inventors and in support of its diffusion-oriented policy. Taiwan's case shows that a Japanese-style government-industry partnership is not easy to form and firms need to formulate their own corporate strategies to cope with the new intellectual property challenge. In all, the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan constitute three models with profound implications for many other countries. RP CHIANG, JT, NATL TAIWAN UNIV,COLL MANAGEMENT,1 ROOSEVELT RD,SEC 4,TAIPEI,TAIWAN. CR *OFF TECHN ASS, 1988, DEF TECHN BAS INTR O ALIC JA, 1992, SPINOFF MILITARY COM ANCHORDOGUY M, 1989, COMPUTERS INC JAPANS BERKOWITZ L, 1993, RES TECHNOLOGY M MAR, P26 BERMAN EM, 1990, J TECHNOLOGY TRA SUM, P5 BROMLEY DA, 1990, US TECHNOLOGY POLICY CHIANG JT, 1991, TECHNOVATION, V11, P339 CHIANG JT, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P365 CHIANG JT, 1994, NEW TECHNOLOGY BASED CLINTON WJ, 1993, TECHNOLOGY AM EC GRO ERGAS H, 1986, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN FREEMAN C, 1982, EC IND INNOVATION HELFGOTT S, 1990, J PATENT TRADEMARK O, P231 KIKKAWA M, 1983, EUROPES IND PUBLIC P NELSON RR, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P117 SERVANSCHREIBER JJ, 1968, DEFI AM SHAPIRO AR, 1990, RES TECHNOLOGY M SEP, P38 SMITH BLR, 1990, AM SCI POLICY WORLD SPERO DM, 1990, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P58 VERNON R, 1979, OXFORD B ECON STAT, V41, P255 NR 20 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 35 EP 48 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE111 UT ISI:A1995RE11100004 ER PT J AU MANNERING, JS MOKHTARIAN, PL TI MODELING THE CHOICE OF TELECOMMUTING FREQUENCY IN CALIFORNIA - AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work, and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of the City of San Diego. The results show that the most important variables in explaining the choice of frequency of telecommuting from home were the presence of small children in the household (irrespective of respondent gender), the number of people in the household, gender of respondent, number of vehicles in the household, whether respondent recently changed departure time for personal reasons, degree of control over scheduling of different job tasks, supervisory status of respondent, the ability to borrow a computer from work if necessary, and a family orientation. The empirical analysis also shows that model results are not transferable among the three organizations studied. C1 UNIV CALIF DAVIS,COLL ENGN,DEPT CIVIL & ENVIRONM ENGN,DAVIS,CA 95616. BOEING COMMERCIAL AIRPLANE CO,DIV CUSTOMER SERV,SEATTLE,WA 98124. CR BENAKIVA M, 1985, DISCRETE CHOICE ANAL BERNARDINO A, 1993, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1413, P22 GORDON G, 1993, TELECOMMUTING RE JUN, P11 GRAY M, 1993, TELEWORKING EXPLAINE GREENE W, 1993, ECONOMETRIC ANAL MANNERING JS, 1994, THESIS U CALIFORNIA MCFADDEN D, 1977, TRANSPORT RES REC, V637, P39 MCFADDEN D, 1981, STRUCTURAL ANAL DISC MOKHTARIAN PL, UNPUB ADOPTION TELEC MOKHTARIAN PL, 1991, TRANSPORTATION, V18, P319 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V26, P749 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1995, INI PRESS TRANSPOR A, V29 OLSZEWSKI P, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P275 PISARSKI AE, 1987, COMMUTING AM NATIONA SMALL KA, 1985, INT ECON REV, V26, P619 SULLIVAN MA, 1993, TRANSPORTATION RES R, V1413, P31 YEN JR, UNPUB TELECOMMUTING NR 17 TC 14 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 49 EP 73 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE111 UT ISI:A1995RE11100005 ER PT J AU KELM, KM NARAYANAN, VK PINCHES, GE TI THE RESPONSE OF CAPITAL-MARKETS TO THE RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT PROCESS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES; FIRMS; STRATEGY; PROFITS; PATENTS AB We examine the response of the capital markets to research and development (R&D) project announcements by firms along three stages of the R&D process: initiation, continuation, and new-product introduction. Using event study methodology, conventional in financial economics and strategic management, we examined 525 R&D project announcements over the 1977-1989 period. Our analysis suggests that investors respond favorably to R&D announcements during the continuation and new-product introduction stages. In the biotechnology industry, however, the greatest response occurred in the initiation and continuation stages. Significant gains in wealth were observed for relatively smaller firms, and in the case of continuation announcements when R&D was viewed as a way of stimulating growth. After accounting for firm size and the effect of the biotechnology industry, the frequency of R&D announcements by firms does not lead to greater stock market effects. Our data paint a picture of rational and sophisticated investors who understand and respond to R&D project announcements-a portrait that stands in stark contrast to the current criticisms of a myopic stock market. C1 UNIV KANSAS,CTR MANAGEMENT TECHNOL,LAWRENCE,KS 66045. UNIV KANSAS,SCH BUSINESS,LAWRENCE,KS 66045. RP KELM, KM, EMPORIA STATE UNIV,DEPT FINANCE,EMPORIA,KS 66801. CR BAYSINGER B, 1989, ACAD MANAGE J, V32, P310 BERNSTEIN PL, 1991, J APPLIED CORPORATE, V5, P17 BROWN SJ, 1985, J FINANC ECON, V14, P3 BURGLEMAN RA, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT BUZZELL R, 1987, PIMS PRINCIPLES CHAN SH, 1990, J FINANC ECON, V26, P255 CHAN SH, 1992, J APPLIED CORPORATE, V5, P59 CHANEY PK, 1991, J BUS, V64, P573 CHAUVIN KW, 1993, FINANC MANAGE, V22, P128 CONNOLLY RA, 1984, REV ECON STAT, V66, P682 CONTRACTOR FJ, 1990, R&D MANAGE, V20, P305 DESS GG, 1990, J MANAGE, V16, P7 DOUKAS J, 1992, J ECON BUS, V44, P95 FAHEY L, 1986, MACROENVIRONMENTAL A FAMA EF, 1991, J FINANC, V46, P1575 FOSTER G, 1986, FINANCIAL STATEMENT GALBRAITH JR, 1986, STRATEGY IMPLEMENTAT GRILICHES Z, 1981, ECON LETT, V7, P181 HAYES RH, 1980, HARVARD BUS REV, V58, P67 HILL CWL, 1988, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT E, V2, P51 HIRSCHEY M, 1985, J ACCOUNTING RES, V23, P326 HITT MA, 1991, ACAD MANAGE J, V34, P693 JAFFE AB, 1986, AM ECON REV, V76, P984 JENSEN MC, 1989, HARVARD BUS REV, V67, P61 KELM KM, 1994, SHAREHOLDER VALUE CR KIRZNER IM, 1971, PERCEPTION OPPORTUNI MARQUIS DG, READINGS MANAGEMENT MCCONNELL JJ, 1985, J FINANC ECON, V14, P399 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PAKES A, 1985, J POLIT ECON, V93, P390 PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PORTER ME, 1992, J APPL CORPORATE FIN, V5, P4 QUINN JB, 1963, HARVARD BUS REV, V41, P49 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SCHWERT GW, 1981, J LAW ECON, V24, P121 UTTERBACK JM, 1975, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V3, P639 WATTS RL, 1986, POSITIVE ACCOUNTING WOOLRIDGE JR, 1988, J APPLIED CORPORATE, V1, P26 WOOLRIDGE JR, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V11, P353 NR 39 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 75 EP 88 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE111 UT ISI:A1995RE11100006 ER PT J AU REAVILL, LRP RAHMAN, TG TI A SYSTEMS-SCIENCE-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE AND AGGRAVATE THE EFFECTS OF FLOODING IN BANGLADESH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Bangladesh is one of the poorest and least-developed countries of the world. Flooding is a requirement for the fertilization of major areas of the agricultural land of the country, and is differentiated from catastrophic flooding, which causes loss of life and serious damage to agriculture and utilities. The causes of flooding are analyzed in terms of the principal subsystems: hydrological, siltation, structural, financial, and political. An holistic analysis of the interaction of the factors is given. A major integration of economic policy and technical expertise will be required of the countries of the Himalayan subcontinent toward a collective environment management strategy to ameliorate the problem. Without such a strategy, the problem is likely to increase. Even with an appropriate strategy, remission is likely to be modest. C1 EXECUT ACCESS LTD,HONG KONG,HONG KONG. RP REAVILL, LRP, CITY UNIV LONDON,DEPT SYST SCI,CTR ENGN MANAGEMENT,NORTHAMPTON SQ,LONDON EC1V 0HB,ENGLAND. CR *CIC PROD, 1991, UNN DIS *DEV RES ACT PROGR, 1989, BANGL COUNTR STUD NO *WORLD BANK, 1977, BANGL FOOD POL REV *WORLD BANK, 1990, FLOOD CONTR BANGL PL CHRISTY JR, 1994, NATURE, V367, P324 FAZAL MA, 1982, UNPUB UTILISATION 1 FAZAL MA, 1983, UNPUB UTILISATION 2 HAQUE, 1991, GEOGRAPHICAL, V63 KHAN AR, 1989, STRATEGY DEV BANGLAD PEARS N, 1985, BASIC BIOGEOGRAPHY PUSHKOV VP, 1989, POLITICAL DEV BANGLA RASTOGI BK, 1976, DEV GEOTECHNICAL ENG, V11 SASINATH JHA, 1990, CONSERVATION DEV NEP SMITH K, 1979, HUMAN ADJUSTMENT FLO WHITTOW J, 1980, ANATOMY ENV HAZARDS NR 15 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 89 EP 101 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA RE111 UT ISI:A1995RE11100007 ER PT J AU STEELE, BD TI AN ECONOMIC-THEORY OF TECHNOLOGICAL PRODUCTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper presents the derivation and justification of a new economic theory of a manufacturing firm. It represents a mathematical extension of neoclassical economics in which the technological performance of a product is allowed to vary. The product's unit production costs is presented as a function of its technological performance, production rate, and product-design and production investments. Likewise, the product's unit sales price is presented as a function of its technological performance, sales rate, and advertising and marketing investments. By placing these price and cost functions in an elementary profit equation, a general theory of a manufacturing firm's profitability is achieved. Its mathematical feasibility is confirmed through a numerical example. Its conceptual validity, on the other hand, is confirmed by using it to interpret historical episodes of technological change. The theory of technological products is also used to calculate the conditions for maximizing the long-term profitability of a firm. The results show that neoclassical microeconomics is a restricted case of this theory. C1 UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES,DEPT HIST,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024. FAILURE ANAL ASSOCIATES,LOS ANGELES,CA. CR BIJKER W, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION CONSTANT EW, 1980, ORIGINS TURBOJET REV COWAN RS, 1983, MORE WORK MOTHER FLORIDA R, 1990, BREAKTHROUGH ILLUSIO GRILICHES Z, 1971, PRICE INDEXES QUALIT HOUNSHELL DA, 1984, AM SYSTEM MASS PRODU HUGHES TP, 1983, NETWORKS POWER ELECT JACOBS M, 1991, SHORT TERM AM CAUSES JOHNSON HT, 1987, RELEVANCE LOST RISE KELLER M, 1989, RUDE AWAKENING RISE, CH6 LAYTON ET, 1992, RULE THUMB SCI ENG J LESLIE SW, 1983, BOSS KETTERING MANSFIELD E, 1988, MICROECONOMICS THEOR, P289 SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SMITH MR, 1977, HARPERS FERRY ARMORY WALTON M, 1986, DEMING MANAGEMENT ME NR 16 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 48 IS 3 BP 221 EP 242 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QR138 UT ISI:A1995QR13800001 ER PT J AU DEARAUJO, JL TI ARE TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION-PROCESSES INHERENTLY HISTORICAL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Competitive diffusion of two technologies in a finite market is modeled through birth-and-death processes. For pure birth processes, final equilibria cover the whole range of possible outcomes, and their distribution depends both on ex-ante parameters and on initial advantages. Furthermore, the necessary lead to offset ex-ante disadvantages in diffusion rates decreases in relative terms with market size. When deaths are introduced, there is extinction with probability one given infinite time. The system may spend large amounts of time around an ''equilibrium'' point having the same characteristics as final equilibria in pure birth processes, however. The implication is that ex-post observation of the process tells little or nothing concerning ex-ante parameters. If a renewal is introduced at extinction, limit probabilities may be obtained. In this case, distribution tends to concentrate on states in which only one technology is present. Results are robust with respect to assumptions on the functional specification of birth and death rates. RP DEARAUJO, JL, UNIV FED RIO DE JANEIRO,INST IND ECON,AV PASTEUR 250 SALA 11,PRAIA VERMELHA,BR-22290240 RIO JANEIRO,BRAZIL. CR ARTHUR WB, 1987, EUR J OPER RES, V30, P294 ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 AYRES RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA BAILEY NTJ, 1975, MATH THEORY INFECTIO BRUCKNER E, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY EC CHAO CAMERON HM, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P147 MONTANO MAJ, 1980, COLLECTIVE PHENOMENA, V3, P107 ROSS SM, 1983, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES SILVERBERG G, 1988, ECON J, V98, P1032 NR 9 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 48 IS 3 BP 243 EP 257 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QR138 UT ISI:A1995QR13800002 ER PT J AU BROWN, G TI COMMUNITY, TECHNOLOGY, AND RISK - COLLECTIVE WELL-BEING IN THE AVIATION INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID HIGH-RELIABILITY ORGANIZATIONS; CULTURE AB Highly hazardous activities are currently overwhelmingly researched within the context of the organizations that produce or exploit them. Analysts have varying degrees of confidence in the capacity of these organizations to manage complex risks and hazards. Yet we often overlook the fact that the actual management of these technologies is entrusted to a very significant degree by organizations to occupational communities, whether they be engineers, pilots, air traffic controllers, or scientists. These communities usually straddle organizational boundaries, and state and public expectations invest them with substantial countervailing power [15] with respect to the organizations that actually employ them. Although tensions arise between the professional and commercial/bureaucratic agenda, the ''cosmopolitan'' perspective of the occupational community very frequently prevails over the ''local'' perspective of the organizational bureaucracy. An overemphasis in research on the dysfunctions (real or asserted) of organizations can conceal a record of successful management of hazard by occupational communities. This paper arises from research carried out among aviation professionals: air traffic controllers, pilots, engineers, and cabin crew. It argues that modern civil aviation should not always be viewed as a series of ''accidents waiting to happen,'' but rather as a celebration of long-term collective well-being in a complex sociotechnical environment. The wider lesson for other technologies may be that we are already better at handling significant hazards than we are frequently willing to admit- altho;gh this modesty may itself be functional to our search for improved management of risk and hazard. The research was carried out whilst the author was 1993 Lloyd's Tercentenary Fellow, Templeton College, University of Oxford. RP BROWN, G, BRUNEL UNIV,DEPT MANAGEMENT STUDIES,UXBRIDGE UB8 3PH,MIDDX,ENGLAND. CR *UK MON MERG COMM, 1983, CM9068 *UK MON MERG COMM, 1990, CM1122 *UK ROYAL SOC, 1992, RISK AN PERC MAN REP ABBOTT A, 1988, SYSTEM PROFESSIONS ACKROYD S, 1990, PERS REV, V19, P3 BLAIN ANJ, 1977, PILOTS MANAGEMENT IN BROOKES A, 1992, DISASTER AIR BROWN G, 1990, THESIS OXFORD U BROWN G, 1992, THESIS OXFORD U BROWN G, 1994, UNPUB SOCIOLOGICAL A COOK J, 1989, ACCIDENT WAITING HAP DOUGLAS M, 1987, I THINK DOUGLAS M, 1993, RISK BLAME DUNKERLEY D, 1988, DOING RES ORG ETZIONI A, 1961, COMP ANAL COMPLEX OR ETZIONI A, 1965, HDB ORG FELDMAN SP, 1989, HUM RELAT, V42, P575 FORMAN P, 1990, FLYING DANGER HIDDEN GALBRAITH JK, 1956, AM CAPITALISM GOLICH VL, 1989, POLITICAL EC INT AIR GOULDNER A, 1957, ADM SCI Q, V1, P281 GRAYSON D, 1988, TERROR SKIES STORY W HARDY R, 1990, CALLBACK NASAS AVIAT JOHNSON TJ, 1972, PROFESSIONS POWER KOMONS NA, 1977, BONFIRES BEACONS FED LABICH K, 1987, FORTUNE 0817, P54 LAPORTE T, 1975, ORG SOCIAL COMPLEXIT LAPORTE T, 1982, ACCIDENT THREE MILE LAPORTE T, 1988, DEV LARGE TECHNICAL LAPORTE TR, 1991, J PUBL ADM RES THEOR, V1, P19 MEEK VL, 1988, ORGAN STUD, V9, P453 MILLER EJ, 1967, SYSTEMS ORG OQILVY D, 1988, UK AIRSPACE IS IT SA OSTER CV, 1992, WHY AIRPLANES CRASH PAUCHANT TC, 1992, TRANSFORMING CRISIS PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PETERS T, 1992, LIBERATION MANAGEMEN REASON JT, 1990, HUMAN ERROR REASON JT, 1990, HUMAN FACTORS HAZARD ROBERTS KH, 1989, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V36, P132 ROBERTS KH, 1989, IND CRISIS Q, V3, P111 ROBERTS KH, 1990, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V32, P101 ROBERTS KH, 1990, MANAGING COMPLEXITY ROBERTS KH, 1990, ORGAN SCI, V1, P160 ROBERTS KH, 1993, NEW CHALLENGES UNDER ROCHLIN G, 1987, NAVAL WAR COLL R AUT, P76 ROCHLIN GI, 1989, IND CRISIS Q, V3, P159 TAYLOR L, 1989, AIR TRAVEL SAFE IS I VAILL PB, 1982, ORGAN DYN, V26, P39 VANMAANEN J, 1984, RES ORG BEHAVIOR, V6 VONGLINOW MA, 1990, MANAGING COMPLEXITY WEICK KE, 1987, CALIF MANAGE REV, V29, P112 WOODWARD SN, 1985, LONDON BUSINESS AUT, P24 NR 53 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 48 IS 3 BP 259 EP 267 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QR138 UT ISI:A1995QR13800003 ER PT J AU KASZUBOWSKI, MJ TI AN ANALYSIS OF PAYLOAD GROWTH FOR MAJOR US AND EUROPEAN LAUNCH VEHICLES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY AB Logistic S-curves are fitted to the progression of payload versus time for the major unmanned launch vehicles in the current United States and European fleets. The results are used to infer the degree to which each vehicle family has approached its predicted payload limit, and the appropriate policy implications are discussed. The study uses well-known methods for fitting the data, and discusses several other figures of merit that may be of possible use as new vehicles mature, or as additional information can be gathered regarding historical vehicles. It has been found, for example, that U.S. launchers are generally very close to their unique ''point of diminishing returns,'' whereas the European launch vehicle family, the Ariane, can be expected to undergo significant growth in the next several decades. The implication is that, if additional payload growth is desired for these U.S. launchers, continued evolutionary design changes must be abandoned in favor of more revolutionary changes, with an associated increase in research and development effort and cost. RP KASZUBOWSKI, MJ, GEN IDEAS,300 E 40TH ST,NORFOLK,VA 23504. CR *AER IND ASS, 1988, AER FACTS FIG 93 94 *AER IND ASS, 1988, US AER IND TREND INT *AER IND ASS, 1991, US AER IND 1990S GLO *NAT AER SPAC ADM, 1992, AER SPAC REP PRES FI AUGUSTINE NR, 1985, AUGUSTINES LAW DEBECKER A, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V46, P153 ESPOSITO E, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P1 FOSTER R, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS ISAKOWITZ S, 1991, INT REFERENCE GUIDE LENOROVITZ J, 1994, AVIATION WEEK S 0815, P22 MARTINO JP, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P147 MECHAMM, 1994, AVIATION WEEK S 0808, P71 PORTER AL, 1991, FORECASTING MANAGEME VONHIPPLE E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION YOUNG P, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P375 NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 48 IS 3 BP 269 EP 284 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QR138 UT ISI:A1995QR13800004 ER PT J AU SHARMA, HD GUPTA, AD SUSHIL TI THE OBJECTIVES OF WASTE MANAGEMENT IN INDIA - A FUTURES INQUIRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Future objectives of waste management in a developing country such as India will be different from those in developed countries for various reasons. This paper describes a futures study into the objectives of waste management in India at the aggregate as well as sectoral levels. It employs consensus methods to generate and analyze present and future objectives of waste management in India. The objectives have been classified depending on their driver power and dependence using indirect relationship MICMAC analysis. Interpretive structural modeling has been carried out to develop a hierarchy of actions required to achieve the future objectives of waste management. C1 INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT MECH ENGN,NEW DELHI 110016,INDIA. GBPUAT,COLL TECHNOL,DEPT MECH ENGN,PANTNAGAR,UTTAR PRADESH,INDIA. INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT MANAGEMENT STUDIES,NEW DELHI 110016,INDIA. CR DUPERRIN JC, 1973, CEA R4551 RAPP EC HARARY F, 1965, STRUCTURAL MODELS IN LENDARIS GG, 1980, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V10, P807 LINSTONE HA, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V14, P291 MALONE DW, 1975, P IEEE, V63, P397 MOORE CM, 1987, GROUP TECHNIQUE IDEA SAXENA JP, 1990, SYST RES, V7, P245 SHARMA HD, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V42 SUSHIL, 9TH INT C CYB SYST N WARFIELD JN, 1973, IEEE SMC, V3, P133 WARFIELD JN, 1973, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V3, P121 WARFIELD JN, 1974, STRUCTURING COMPLEX WARFIELD JN, 1976, SOC SYSTEMS PLANNING WARFIELD JN, 1982, GROUP PLANNING PROBL, P155 WARFIELD JN, 1990, SCI GENERIC DESIGN M, V1 WARFIELD JN, 1990, SCI GENERIC DESIGN M, V2 NR 16 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 48 IS 3 BP 285 EP 309 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QR138 UT ISI:A1995QR13800005 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI LETS MAKE A MOVIE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1995 VL 48 IS 3 BP 311 EP 314 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QR138 UT ISI:A1995QR13800006 ER PT J AU ARTIGIANI, R TI TOWARD A SCIENCE OF MEANING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB An attempt is made to isolate and develop some consequences of systems theory that may be unexpected and may help expand the social role of science to include moral and spiritual issues. RP ARTIGIANI, R, USN ACAD,DEPT HIST,121 BLAKE RD,ANNAPOLIS,MD 21402. CR ADKINS AWH, 1970, MANY ONE CRAIK KJW, 1943, NATURE EXPLANATION DONALD M, 1991, ORIGINS MODERN MIND DOUGLAS M, 1986, I THINK DURKHEIM E, 1915, ELEMENTARY FORMS REL EDELMAN G, 1987, NEURAL DARWINISM FISCHER R, 1993, DIOGENES, V41, P1 FROMM E, 1941, ESCAPE FREEDOM JUARRERO A, UNPUB MATSUNO K, 1989, PROTOBIOLOGY MONOD J, 1971, CHANCE NECESSITY NICOLIS JN, 1986, DYNAMICS HIERARCHICA PRIGOGINE I, 1980, BEING BECOMING PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT OF CHAOS ROSEN R, 1985, ANTICIPATORY SYSTEMS RYLE G, 1949, CONCEPT OF MIND SEARLE J, 1992, REDISCOVERY MIND SNELL B, 1953, DISCOVERY MIND GREEK TURNER V, 1986, ANTHR PERFORMANCE WICKEN J, 1987, EVOLUTION THERMODYNA WILLIAMS B, 1993, SHAME NECESSITY WOHLMUTH P, 1990, P ISSS C PORTLAND NR 22 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 48 IS 2 BP 111 EP 128 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QK230 UT ISI:A1995QK23000001 ER PT J AU GILLETT, D STEKLER, HO TI INTRODUCING TECHNOLOGICALLY ADVANCED PRODUCTS - STRATEGIES IN THE COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article studies the strategic decision making involved in introducing technologically advanced commercial aircraft. It compares the decisions made by McDonnell-Douglas Corporation with those of Boeing Aircraft Company in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The study concludes that strategic decisions were made based on each company's vision of its core business. This article examines the decisions of two commercial aircraft firms as they decided whether or not to introduce new technologically advanced airliners. By contrasting the decision-making process of two competitors that faced the same external and objective situations, we can determine some of the factors that explain why new technologically advanced products are or are not introduced into the market place. The time frame of this study covers the late 1970s and the early 1980s. The next section introduces the questions we ask. This is followed by a discussion of the external environment faced by the firms. Then we provide a brief history of the two companies, discuss the opportunities and risks that were involved in the decisions, and analyze those decisions. The final section presents our conclusions. C1 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,DEPT ECON,WASHINGTON,DC 20052. USAF,WASHINGTON,DC 20330. CR INTERAVIA OCT, P1117 1977, AVIATION WEEK S 0321, P141 1977, AVIATION WEEK S 0606, P234 1978, AVIATION WEEK S 1015, P25 1978, BUSINESS WEEK 1023, P89 1978, BUSINESS WEEK 1023, P94 1978, NY TIMES 0407 1979, AVIATION WEEK S 1015, P25 1980, AVIATION WEEK S 0107, P16 1980, BUSINESS WEEK 1201, P81 1980, BUSINESS WEEK 1201, P81 1983, AVIATION WEEK S 0627, P32 1983, AVIATION WEEK S 1121, P14 1983, AVIATION WEEK S 1212, P28 *US CIV AV MAN IND, 1985, COMP STAT US CIV AV, P44 *US DEP COMM, 1978, US IND OUTL, P165 FLANIGAN J, 1978, FORBES 0724, P27 GREENSLET ES, 1983, AIAA 83 2504 TRANSPO, P5 KOZA P, 1982, UPI 0114 NEWHOUSE J, 1982, SPORTY GAME, P12 ROBERTS L, 1981, UPI 0804 SMITH L, 1979, FORTUNE MAGAZIN 1217, P60 NR 22 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 48 IS 2 BP 129 EP 141 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QK230 UT ISI:A1995QK23000002 ER PT J AU KOVOORMISRA, S TI A MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH TO CRISIS PREPARATION FOR TECHNICAL ORGANIZATIONS - SOME CRITICAL FACTORS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Technical organizations are not only vulnerable to crises, but have the potential to create catastrophic crises. This has been devastatingly illustrated by recent crises, such as the gas leak in Bhopal, India, the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and the Challenger explosion. Thus, crisis preparation is critical for these organizations. This paper describes a Multidimensional Approach to crisis preparation for technical organizations. As part of this approach, some critical factors for crisis preparation are also described. The Multidimensional Approach is derived from the literature and a study of the crisis preparations of nine technical organizations. C1 UNIV SO CALIF,CTR CRISIS MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. RP KOVOORMISRA, S, UNIV COLORADO,COLL BUSINESS & ADM,CAMPUS BOX 165,POB 173364,DENVER,CO 80217. CR AGUILAR FJ, 1967, SCANNING BUSINESS EN BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 DOEPAL D, 1991, IND CRISIS Q, V5, P177 FINK SL, 1986, CRISIS MANAGEMENT PL KELLY BK, 1989, IND EMERGENCY PREPAR LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1989, SYSTEMS PRACTICE, V2, P307 LINSTONE HA, 1990, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21ST CENTU MESHKATI N, 1991, IND CRISIS Q, V5, P1 MITROFF II, 1988, SLOAN MANAGEMENT REV MITROFF II, 1989, IND CRISIS Q, V3, P269 PEARSON CM, 1993, EXECUTIVE, V7, P48 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PFEFFER J, 1978, EXTERNAL CONTROL ORG PHELPS NL, 1986, J BUS STRAT, V6, P5 ROGERS W, 1986, REPORT PRESIDENTS CO SHRIVASTAVA P, 1987, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SHRIVASTAVA P, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P285 SHRIVASTAVA P, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V45, P251 SMART C, 1977, ADM SCI Q, V22, P640 STEERS RM, 1979, MOTIVATION WORK BEHA THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TURNER BA, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P378 VROOM VH, 1964, WORK MOTIVATION WEICK KE, 1987, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V25, P112 WILKINSON CB, 1983, AM J PSYCHIAT, V140, P1134 ZAMMUTO RF, 1985, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V7, P223 NR 28 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 48 IS 2 BP 143 EP 160 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QK230 UT ISI:A1995QK23000003 ER PT J AU URI, ND BOYD, R BEACH, ED TI INCREASING BIODEGRADABLE POLYMER RESIN USE - THE IMPACT ON THE UNITED-STATES-ECONOMY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article is concerned with the effects of the substitution of cornstarch-based biodegradable polymer resins for petroleum-based plastic materials and resins on the U.S. economy. The analytical approach used in the study consists of a computable general equilibrium model composed of 14 producing sectors, 14 consuming sectors, and 6 household categories classified by income and a government. The results suggest that, for example, for a $1.00 per pound of resin subsidy, the substitution of cornstarch-based biodegradable polymer resins for petroleum-based plastic materials and resins will result in an increase in output by all producing sectors of 0.067% or about $542 million and an expansion in output in the agricultural program crops sector (primarily corn) of about $431 million, a rise in the consumption of goods and services by about 0.003% or $110 million, a rise in total utility by 0.004% or $168 million and a net increase in government expenditures of 0.047% or $369 million. C1 OHIO UNIV,DEPT ECON,ATHENS,OH 45701. RP URI, ND, USDA,ERS,NRED,1301 NEW YORK AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. CR 1993, MOD PLAST, V37, P23 *BIGGS GILM ASS, 1988, SIT AN DEGR PLAST *ENV RES LTD, 1991, FEAS STUD DEGR CONT *US BUR LAB STAT, 1986, CONS EXP SURV INT SU *US DEP COMM, 1993, US IND OUTL 1993 ARROW KJ, 1961, REV ECON STAT, V43, P225 BALLARD CL, 1985, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM BEACH ED, 1993, IND USES AGR MATERIA BOYD R, 1988, TECHNICAL B USDA, V1743 COBLE K, 1992, REV AGR EC, V14, P33 DOANE W, 1992, MAT CHEM BIOMASS, V12, P197 DOANE W, 1992, NEW CROPS NEW USES N FRANCKE T, 1989, MARKET POTENTIAL USE GIFFORD C, 1992, NEW CROPS NEW USES N HARBERGER A, 1974, TAXATION WELFARE HARBERGER AC, 1962, J POLITICAL EC, V70, P215 HEADY EO, 1961, AGR PRODUCTION FUNCT HERTEL TW, 1987, 872 PURD U DEP AGR E HUANG WY, 1993, ENVIRON INT, V19, P179 HUDSON EA, 1974, BELL J ECON, V5, P461 MATHIESEN L, 1985, MATH PROGRAMMING STU, V23 MATHIESEN L, 1985, OPER RES, V33, P1225 MAYER J, 1992, BIODEGRADABLE MATERI MIXON JW, 1985, MANAGERIAL EC MORRIS D, 1992, CARBOHYDRATE MARKET SCARF HE, 1967, SIAM J APPL MATH, V15, P1328 SHOVEN J, 1992, APPLYING GENERAL EQU SHOVEN JB, 1972, J PUBLIC ECON, V1, P281 STUDT T, 1990, RES DEV MAR, P50 TAYLOR AC, 1989, BIOCYCLE, V4, P36 URI ND, 1984, APPL ECON, V16, P555 NR 31 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 48 IS 2 BP 161 EP 176 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QK230 UT ISI:A1995QK23000004 ER PT J AU DESAI, PN TI TECHNOLOGY-ASSESSMENT IN THE INDIAN FOOTWEAR SECTOR SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A rapid technological change has been forecast in the leather footwear sector with the introduction of liberalized policies in India. Some of the international experiences have demonstrated that the productivity gains are not distributed invariantly even for similar technologies. Moreover, it is observed that the socioeconomic impact of modern technologies and automation might vary sectorally and regionally. It is argued in this paper that the impact may not simply be determined by the existing industrial structure, which is complex, but would be influenced by the market conditions, skill levels, and the nature of raw material used as well. Leather does not possess the homogeneous qualities of a synthetic material and hence poses problems for automation as does the fashion-driven markets in the leather product sector, which require rapid changes in design, technology, and skills. Thus, this paper is an attempt to explore whether the organizational changes brought about would have significant impact on productivity, employment, and wage structure and carve out policy options for this sector. C1 CSIR,HUMAN RESOURCE DEV GRP,NEW DELHI 12,INDIA. CTR RES ENVIRONM SCI & TECHNOL POLICY,NEW DELHI,INDIA. CR 1972, REPORT COMMITTEE DEV 1985, REPORT REV COMMITTEE 1986, UNPUB REPORT APPROPR 1990, REPORT WORKING GROUP 1992, 1 INT LAB OFF REC DE, P11 1992, 2 INT LAB OFF EMPL W, P73 1993, UPGRADATION FOOTWEAR CHATTERTON A, 1982, MONOGRAPH SERIES MAD, P165 KNORRINGA P, 1991, SMALL ENTERPRISE IND, P20 NEEDHAM J, 1965, SCI CIVILISATION CHI, V4 SALAMAN R, 1986, DICT LEATHER WORKING, P19 SUNDARAM S, 1993, AUG SEM WOM EMPL IND, P10 NR 12 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 48 IS 2 BP 177 EP 187 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QK230 UT ISI:A1995QK23000005 ER PT J AU HEIN, S TI FROM WEBER TO MANDELBROT - TEMPORAL RATIONALIZATION AND THE FRACTAL FLATTENING EFFECT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In modern societies, technology rationalizes temporal rhythms and decomposes the temporal structure of social processes. Though efficient in the short-run, rationalized micromanagement techniques may lead to the destruction of information and be detrimental to the development of social cognition and historical perspective. Thus, accelerating information flows made possible by advanced technological systems may be linked to decreased informational quality. This article argues that the reduction in temporal complexity can be measured using techniques in fractal dimension analysis [1]. A comparative examination of New York Times' articles about events in World War II, Vietnam, and the Persian Gulf War shows that the information contained in more recent articles has a lower fractal dimension than that of similar stories 50 years ago. The data suggest that our awareness of referential, historical types of information is diminishing because of the rationalization of information and the loss of temporal context. C1 WASHINGTON STATE UNIV,DEPT SOCIOL,PULLMAN,WA 99164. CR 1944, NY TIMES 0606, V93, A1 1944, NY TIMES 0607, V93, A1 1944, NY TIMES 0608, V93, A1 1944, NY TIMES 0608, V93, A2 1944, NY TIMES 0609, V93, A1 1944, NY TIMES 0609, V93, A4 1944, NY TIMES 0610, V93, A1 1944, NY TIMES 0610, V93, A2 1944, NY TIMES 0611, V93, A1 1944, NY TIMES 0611, V93, A2 1944, NY TIMES 0612, V93, A1 1944, NY TIMES 0612, V93, A4 1968, NY TIMES 0411, V117, A1 1968, NY TIMES 0411, V117, A5 1968, NY TIMES 0412, V117, A1 1968, NY TIMES 0412, V117, A3 1968, NY TIMES 0413, V117, A1 1968, NY TIMES 0413, V117, A3 1968, NY TIMES 0414, V117, A1 1968, NY TIMES 0414, V117, A2 1968, NY TIMES 0415, V117, A15 1968, NY TIMES 0416, V117, A1 1968, NY TIMES 0416, V117, A7 1968, NY TIMES 0417, V117, A1 1968, NY TIMES 0417, V117, A2 1991, NY TIMES 0224, V150, A1 1991, NY TIMES 0224, V150, A16 1991, NY TIMES 0225, V150, A1 1991, NY TIMES 0225, V150, A12 1991, NY TIMES 0226, V150, A1 1991, NY TIMES 0226, V150, A13 1991, NY TIMES 0227, V150, A1 1991, NY TIMES 0227, V150, A18 1991, NY TIMES 0228, V150, A1 1991, NY TIMES 0228, V150, A9 1991, NY TIMES 0301, V150, A1 1991, NY TIMES 0301, V150, A9 1991, NY TIMES 0302, V150, A1 BARNSLEY M, 1988, FRACTALS EVERYWHERE BENIGER J, 1986, CONTROL REVOLUTION T BENIGER JR, 1990, ORG COMMUNICATION TE, P29 BURLANDO B, 1990, J THEOR BIOL, V146, P99 DILLMAN D, 1991, ENCY SOCIOLOGY GIDDENS A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES MODERNI GOLDBERGER AL, 1987, YALE J BIOL MED, V60, P41 HALBERSTAM D, 1991, GULF WAR READER, P385 HUGHES TP, 1989, AM GENESIS CENTURY I KNIGHTLEY P, 1975, 1ST CASUALTY CRIMEA MANDELBROT BB, 1982, FRACTAL GEOMETRY NAT MOORE B, 1966, SOCIAL ORIGINS DICTA NICHOLIS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY OMALLEY M, 1990, KEEPING WATCH HIST A POOL ID, 1983, SCIENCE, V221, P609 POOL ID, 1990, TECHNOLOGY BOUNDARIE RIFKIN J, 1987, TIME WARS PRIMARY CO RITZER G, 1993, MCDONALDIZATION SOC TOFFLER A, 1990, POWERSHIFT KNOWLEDGE WEBER M, 1978, EC SOC WEIZENBAUM J, 1976, COMPUTER POWER HUMAN WINNER L, 1986, WHALE REACTOR SEARCH WRIGHT L, 1969, CLOCKWORK MAN STORY YOUNG M, 1988, METRONOMIC SOC NATUR ZELENY M, 1991, INT J GEN SYST, V19, P359 NR 63 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 48 IS 2 BP 189 EP 210 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QK230 UT ISI:A1995QK23000006 ER PT J AU LINSTONE, HA TI AMERICA - MELTING-POT OR PRESSURE COOKER SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 PORTLAND STATE UNIV,PORTLAND,OR 97207. CR BELLAH RN, 1991, GOOD SOC, CH6 BLOOM H, 1987, CLOSING AM MIND, P76 BRAUDEL F, 1992, MEDITERRANEAN MEDITE, P662 DURANT W, 1966, LIFE GREECE GARRETT L, 1994, COMING PLAGUE NEWLY JEFFERSON T, 1944, BASIC WRITINGS T JEF LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21ST CENTU LINSTONE HA, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V47, P1 NIEBUHR R, 1929, LEAVES NOTEBOOK TAME, P162 POSTMAN N, 1994, TECHNOLOGY ED NO GOD VIDLER AR, 1957, ESSAYS LIBERALITY, P21 NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1995 VL 48 IS 2 BP 211 EP 220 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QK230 UT ISI:A1995QK23000007 ER PT J AU BERRY, BJL KIM, H TI LEADERSHIP GENERATIONS - A LONG-WAVE MACROHISTORY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The central theses of William Strauss and Neil Howe's book Generations are reviewed and data they present on national leadership shares of successive cohort generations are analyzed. Their generational cycles are shown to repeat with Kuznets cycle/Kondratiev wave rhythmicity, and generational shifts to coincide with long-wave crises. This discovery leads to a reevaluation of their generational typology from the Civil War to the Great Depression and a reformulation of the generational characterizations in a format consistent with long-wave relationships of polity and economy. The effect is to enrich and generalize both generational and long-wave theory. C1 UNIV TEXAS,BRUTON CTR DEV STUDIES,RICHARDSON,TX 75083. RP BERRY, BJL, UNIV TEXAS,SCH SOCIAL SCI,RICHARDSON,TX 75083. CR BARLEY SR, 1992, ADMIN SCI QUART, V37, P363 BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BERRY BJL, 1993, URBAN GEOGR, V14, P1 EASTERLIN RA, 1987, BIRTH FORTUNE IMPACT KLINGBERG FL, 1983, CYCLICAL TRENDS AM F STRAUSS W, 1991, GENERATIONS HIST AM THOMPSON WR, 1992, INT ORGAN, V46, P493 NR 7 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 1 EP 9 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500001 ER PT J AU STEYN, HD DEWET, G TI TECHNOLOGICAL LIMITS AND THE HIERARCHY OF PRODUCT SYSTEMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The notion of technological limits and the concept of product system hierarchy are established in the fields of technology analysis and systems engineering, respectively. In this article an attempt is made to integrate these concepts. A trend toward the increased importance of quasitechnological limits relative to technological limits is described. A further trend toward the increased importance of limits on higher levels in the system hierarchy is also described, and the relationship between these two trends is explored. This leads to a hypothesis about the future role of technology in society. The possibility of integrating some of the frameworks of technology analysis is discussed. The need for technological forecasting on all levels of the system hierarchy is motivated. C1 UNIV PRETORIA,DEPT ENGN MANAGEMENT,PRETORIA,SOUTH AFRICA. CR AYRES RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA AYRES RU, 1988, TECHNOVATION, V8, P87 FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS FOSTER RN, 1986, RES MANAGE, V29, P17 STEYN HD, 1992, 3RD INT C MAN TECHN TONDL L, 1964, CONTRIBUTIONS PHILOS VANWYK RJ, 1985, FUTURES JUN, P214 VANWYK RJ, 1988, TECHNOVATION, V7, P341 VANWYK RJ, 1990, R D MANAGE, V20, P257 NR 9 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 11 EP 15 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500002 ER PT J AU PAPANIKOS, GT TI MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ENDOGENOUS TECHNICAL PROGRESS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID REAL BUSINESS CYCLES; RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS; GROWTH; TECHNOLOGY AB This article uses rational expectations and a perfect competitive markets macroeconomic model with endogenous and exogenous technological changes. The model is used to derive reduced-form equations for the short-run process of output, price, and employment. Endogenous technological progress has a positive effect on output and employment and a negative impact on the aggregate price level. On the other hand, technological regress can explain stagflationary phenomena. In this model, active government intervention has nonneutral effects. C1 UNIV PATRAS,AGRINIO,GREECE. CR ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 BARRO RJ, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P103 CHARI VV, 1991, J POLIT ECON, V99, P1142 DOSI G, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P1120 ELTIS WA, 1971, ECON J, V81, P503 GOMULKA S, 1990, THEORY TECHNOLOGICAL KENNEDY C, 1972, ECON J, V82, P11 KING RG, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P126 LUCAS RE, 1988, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MANKIW NG, 1989, J ECON PERSPECT, V3, P79 MANKIW NG, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P1645 PLOSSER CI, 1989, J ECON PERSPECT, V3, P51 PRESCOTT EC, 1987, AM ECON REV, V77, P63 ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P71 SARGENT TJ, 1973, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P429 SARGENT TJ, 1975, J POLITICAL EC, V83, P241 SARGENT TJ, 1976, J MONETARY ECON, V2, P169 SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH STADLER GW, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P763 TATOM JA, 1991, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, V73, P3 UZAWA H, 1965, INT ECON REV, V6, P18 NR 22 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 17 EP 27 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500003 ER PT J AU ROWE, F TI DATA NETWORK PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR - THE CASE OF THE FRENCH COMMERCIAL-BANKS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ORGANIZATIONAL INNOVATION; MANAGEMENT AB This paper discusses how the use of data communication networks contributed to improved productivity and competitive advantages in the case of the French commercial banks. The notion of productivity covers three elements: crude productivity, efficiency, and value-added per input or value-productivity. The article argues that the impact of these networks on crude productivity and efficiency has been greater than on value-added per input. Thus the Information Technology (IT) productivity paradox can be largely explained by the definitions of productivity used. Based on an examination of the emerging character of a strategy, our paper suggests that a competitive advantage can only be achieved during periods when there is uncertainty concerning technology and when organizational innovation is being introduced. We then describe the competitive behavior of 11 banks and try to explain why some banks perform better than others. Previous explanations of the productivity paradox that rely on learning effects are weakened by the rapidity of the recovery of firms after the introduction of new data networks. RP ROWE, F, ECOLE NATL SUPER TELECOMMUN PARIS,DEPT & MANAGEMENT,46 RUE BARRAULT,F-75634 PARIS 13,FRANCE. CR ADLER P, 1983, REV ECON, P5 ANTONELLI C, 1985, INT J IND ORGAN, V3, P109 ANTONELLI C, 1988, NEW INFORMATION TECH BARRAS R, 1990, RES POLICY, V19 BENZONI L, 1991, COMMUNICATION STRATE BOUQUIN H, 1974, THESIS U PARIS 9 DAU BRANDT H, 1982, MONTHLY LABOR RE DEC, P19 CHAKRAVARTHY BS, 1982, ACAD MANAGE REV, V7, P35 CLEMONS E, 1989, OFFICE TECHNOLOGY PE, V5, P229 DAFT RL, 1978, ACAD MANAGE J, V21, P193 DAMANPOUR F, 1984, ADMIN SCI QUART, V29, P392 DAVID P, 1990, AM EC REV MAY, P355 DEBRANDT J, 1989, REV EC IND, V49 DIERDEN P, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V3 FRANKE RH, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P143 GROSCH H, 1975, COMPUTERWORLD, V16 HANNAN MT, 1977, AM J SOCIOL, V82, P929 HREBINIAK L, 1985, ADM SCI Q, V30 KAPLAN RS, 1984, ACCOUNT REV, V59, P390 KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LALLEE B, 1990, PUR NOUVELLE PERFORM LESCA H, 1989, INFORMATION ADAPTATI MAHONEY T, 1990, PRODUCTIVITY ORG, P13 MCFARLAN FW, 1983, CORPORATE INFORMATIO MINTZBERG H, 1972, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT P MINTZBERG H, 1978, MANAGEMENT SCI, V24 MINTZBERG H, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V11, P171 NELSON R, 1987, UNDERSTANDING TECHNI PETIT P, 1989, INT SEMINAR SCI TECH PHILIPS A, 1987, HDB BANKING STRATEGY, P124 PORCHEROT C, 1991, ENTERPRISES TERRITOI PORTER M, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PORTER ME, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P95 REIX R, 1991, REV FRANCAISE GE NOV REVELL J, 1983, BANKING ELECTRONIC F ROWE F, 1991, THESIS U PARIS X NAN ROWE F, 1992, MAY C AIM HEC STEINER T, 1990, TECHNOLOGY BANKING VANDEVEN AH, 1986, MANAGEMENT SCI, V32 NR 40 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 29 EP 44 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500004 ER PT J AU FRANSES, PH TI A METHOD TO SELECT BETWEEN GOMPERTZ AND LOGISTIC TREND CURVES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GROWTH-CURVES AB In this paper a simple method is proposed to select between two often applied trend curves; the Gompertz and the logistic curve. The method is based on one auxiliary regression. Two applications illustrate its merits. RP FRANSES, PH, ERASMUS UNIV ROTTERDAM,INST ECONOMETR,POB 1738,3000 DR ROTTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. CR FRANSES PH, 1994, J OPER RES SOC, V45, P109 GREGG JV, 1964, ICI MONOGRAPH, V1 HARVEY AC, 1984, J OPER RES SOC, V35, P641 LEE JC, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P61 MARMOLINERO C, 1980, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V31, P141 MEADE N, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P429 OLIVER FR, 1981, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V32, P499 YOUNG P, 1989, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P501 NR 8 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 45 EP 49 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500005 ER PT J AU KIM, DJ TI EXPANSION OF THE INFORMATION WORKFORCE - INNOVATION PULL OR AUTOMATION PUSH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article describes how labor is reallocated from the traditional sector to the information sector. It also emphasizes that the growth of the information workforce is primarily driven by the synergistic process of information technology innovation (IT). IT innovation affects the structural change of workforce in two ways: First, it pulls the laborforce toward the information sector, and second, it pushes the laborforce from the traditional sector through automation. This paper tries to determine the causes for this dual effect of IT innovation, its magnitude, and the interaction between them by using the two-sector model with nonhomothetic preference, which allows high demand elasticity of the information sector. RP KIM, DJ, KOREA UNIV,DEPT ECON,CHUNGNAM 339700,SOUTH KOREA. CR 1992, TECHNOLOGY EC KEY RE BELL D, 1973, COMING POST IND SOC KATZ RL, 1988, INFORMATION SOC INT KIM DJ, 1992, UNPUB INFORMATION TE KIM DJ, 1993, SEOUL J EC, V6, P81 KIMBEL D, 1987, TELECOMMUNICATIO DEC, P377 MACHLUP F, 1962, PRODUCTION DISTRIBUT NAISBITT J, 1990, MEGATRENDS 1984 MEGA PARK YC, 1992, UNPUB IT IND STRATEG PORAT MU, 1977, INFORMATION EC TODARO MP, 1989, EC DEV THIRD WORLD NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 51 EP 58 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500006 ER PT J AU DATOR, J TI THE DANCING JUDICIAL ZEN MASTERS - HOW MANY JUDGES DOES IT TAKE TO SEE THE FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB American state judiciaries seem to have embraced futures studies more fully than any other governmental or private institution anywhere. Why might this be? Evidence comes primarily from the discussion on three panels during a recent General Assembly of the World Future Society by eight persons active in various aspects of judicial foresight. RP DATOR, J, UNIV HAWAII,HAWAII RES CTR FUTURES STUDIES,2424 MAILE WAY,HONOLULU,HI 96822. CR FUTURE VIEW Q NEWSLE 1972, P CITIZENS C ADM JUS 1989, COURTS TRANSITION RE 1990, FORESIGHT 2000 STRAT 1992, COURT FUTURES MANUAL *WORLD FUT STUD FE, 1986, RECL FUT MAN METH CHAPLIN G, 1973, HAWAII 2000 CONTINUI CHI K, 1991, FUTURES RES Q, V7, P47 COOK L, 1986, FUTURES RES Q, V2, P65 COOK L, 1990, FUTURES RES Q, V6, P27 DATOR JA, 1991, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES MARTIN JA, 1992, APPROACH LONG RANGE MASINI E, 1993, WHY FUTURES STUDIES OSBORNE D, 1992, REINVENTING GOVT PILCHEN I, 1993, CONDUCTING COURT FUT SCHULTZ W, 1993, REINVENTING COURTS 2 SHAPEK R, 1993, FUTURES RES Q, V9, P63 SLAUGHTER R, 1991, FUTURES CONCEPTS POW NR 18 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 59 EP 70 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500007 ER PT J AU HERBIG, PA PALUMBO, F TI THE EFFECT OF CULTURE ON THE ADOPTION PROCESS - A COMPARISON OF JAPANESE AND AMERICAN BEHAVIOR SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DIFFUSION; TECHNOLOGY; FIRM AB The classic study of the relationship between technological innovation and culture has been that of the influence and changes wrought by a technological innovation on a culture. This paper examines the opposite flow: the influence of culture on the adoption of technological innovations within a society. In particular, the paper examines differences in innovative adoption between the United States and Japan as a direct result of their different cultural attributes. Generalizations are postulated concerning cultural influences on national adoption behavior to determine possible relationships that would allow greater understanding and explanation of the adoption of innovation and diffusion phenomena. C1 YESHIVA UNIV,SYM SCH BUSINESS,DEPT MKT,NEW YORK,NY 10033. RP HERBIG, PA, JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIV,COLL COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT MKT,JACKSONVILLE,AL 36265. CR 1987, J CROSS CULTURAL PSY, V18, P143 ALSTON JP, 1986, AM SAMURAI ALSTON JP, 1989, BUS HORIZONS, V32, P26 AOKI M, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P1 AOKI R, 1991, AM ECON REV, V8, P252 BABA Y, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V10, P89 BARRETT FD, 1985, BUSINESS Q, V50, P43 BASS BM, 1979, ASSESSMENT MANAGERS BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BETEILLE A, 1977, INEQUALITY MEN BOISOT M, 1983, J MANAGE STUD, V20, P159 BROWN LA, 1976, RURAL SOCIOL, V41, P99 CAMPBELL N, 1984, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V4, P224 CHAKRABARTI AK, 1978, IND MARKET MANAG, V7, P231 CLARK T, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P66 DRUCKER PF, 1985, INNOVATION ENTREPREN ELIASHBERG J, 1983, DIFFUSION NEW PRODUC ENGLAND GW, 1978, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V13, P35 FALLOWS J, 1989, MORE US MAKING AM GR FROST EL, 1987, RICHER POORER GATIGNON H, 1985, J CONSUM RES, V11, P849 GLOBE S, 1973, RES MANAGE, V9, P8 HAGEN EE, 1975, EC DEV HAGERSTRAND T, 1965, EUR J SOCIOL, V6, P43 HAIRE M, 1966, MANAGERIAL THINKING HAN CM, 1989, J MARKETING RES, V26, P222 HARPER SC, 1988, BUSINESS HORIZON JUL, P43 HEALY M, 1983, TECHNOVATION, V2, P45 HERBIG P, 1992, J INT CONSUMER MARKE, V4 HERBIG PA, 1990, 1990 P ASS GLOB BUS HERBIG PA, 1991, J INT CONSUM MARKET, V3, P1 HERBIG PA, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA HERBIG PA, 1992, J BUSINESS ENTRE FAL HERBIG PA, 1994, IN PRESS ASIA PACIFI HIRONO R, 1986, MANAGEMENT JAPAN, V19, P9 HOFSTEDE G, 1984, CULTURES CONSEQUENCE IMAI M, 1988, KAIZEN KEY JAPANS CO, V2 IMAI M, 1990, TOKYO BUSINESS TODAY, V58, P44 IMAI M, 1992, INT J QUALITY RELIAB, V9, P71 JEULAND AP, 1981, PARSIMONIOUS MODEL B LEHNER UC, 1989, WALL STREET J 1201, A10 LEVITT T, 1983, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P92 MACDOWELL J, 1984, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, P165 MOKYR J, 1991, LEVER RICHES TECHNOL MUMFORD L, 1961, TECHNOL CULT, V11, P230 MYRDAL G, 1968, ASIAN DRAMA NABSETH L, 1974, DIFFUSION NEW IND PR OHMAE K, 1990, BORDERLESS WORLD ROBERTSON TS, 1986, J MARKETING, V50, P1 ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION ROSENBLUM J, 1986, DICKENS QUART, V3, P47 ROTHWELL R, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P91 RUTTAN VW, 1988, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V36, S247 SAXON G, 1954, SOC FORCES, V2, P166 SCHERER FM, 1984, INNOVATION GROWTH SC SIROTA D, 1971, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P53 TAKADA H, 1991, J MARKETING, V55, P48 THUROW LC, 1987, SCIENCE, V238, P1659 YODER SK, 1988, WALL STREET J 1031 NR 59 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 71 EP 101 PG 31 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500008 ER PT J AU ENGLI, SA TI IATAFI ASSESSING TECHNOLOGY FOR A BETTER FUTURE - INTERNATIONAL-ASSOCIATION-OF-TECHNOLOGY-ASSESSMENT-AND-FORECASTING-INSTI TUTIONS, IN BERGEN, NORWAY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1994 VL 46 IS 1 BP 103 EP 104 PG 2 SC Business; Planning & Development GA QD295 UT ISI:A1994QD29500009 ER PT J AU CAMBEL, AB MOCK, JE TI EXPEDITING TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER WITH MULTIMEDIA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Sociopolitical realities and changes in the economic structure demand that new products and processes be brought to the market place that will create new demands and hence generate well-paying jobs. Fortunately it is not necessary to rely entirely on new research and development (R&D) because a wide variety of prototypes have been developed in our National Laboratories. Thus, the later could be spawning grounds for a wide variety of commercialization initiatives. Unfortunately, this is not occurring with sufficient alacrity because the existing technology transfer apparatus suffers from communications lethargy. As a corollary our National Laboratories are in jeopardy of atrophying because their defense functions are being reduced. They were built at great costs, sophisticated facilities were created and cadres of renowned researchers were nurtured. They should be preserved for a variety of reasons. In this article we describe how recent information technologies commonly called multimedia and virtual reality could be applied to expedite the technology transfer from the National Laboratories to the commercial sector. We first review major characteristics of technology transfer. Then we comment on why traditional approaches are unlikely to be successful. Finally, we propose a technological approach that can be put in place with minimum cost and effort because the basic components and techniques already exist. C1 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20052. US DOE,DIV GEOTHERMAL ENERGY,WASHINGTON,DC. CR AUKSTAKALNIS S, 1992, SILICON MIRAGE ART S BARNSLEY MF, 1993, FRACTAL IAGE COMPRES, P1 BASALLA G, 1988, EVOLUTION TECHNOLOGY, P78 CAMBEL AB, 1993, APPLIED CHAOS THEORY, P32 CLINTON WJ, 1993, TECHNOLOGY AM EC GRO DERN DP, 1994, INTERNET GUIDE NEW U DEUTCH JM, 1993, MOVING R D MARKETPLA, R3 DRUCKER FP, 1993, POSTCAPITALIST SOC EARNSHAW RA, 1993, VIRTUAL REALITY SYST HAMMER M, 1993, ENG CORPORATION MANI KANTER RM, 1983, CHANGE MASTERS, P269 LEONTIEF W, 1985, SCI AM, V252, P37 MOCK JE, 1988, SYNTHESIS TECHHNOLOG, P23 VAUGHAN T, 1993, MULTIMEDIA MAKING IT, P3 WEXELBLAT A, 1993, VIRTUAL REALITY APPL NR 15 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 48 IS 1 BP 1 EP 5 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PZ691 UT ISI:A1995PZ69100001 ER PT J AU KRUPP, H TI EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY POLICY AND GLOBAL SCHUMPETER DYNAMICS - A SOCIAL-SCIENCE PERSPECTIVE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A model of the development of contemporary industralized societies is presented. It amalgamates Luhmann's theory of systems with that of Schumpeterian innovation. The theory shows that all political and other societal operations are severely constrained by what, in this paper, is called globalizing Schumpeter Dynamics. This evolutionary and expansionist development conflicts with the limited capabilities of the Earth. It is shown that all present policies of resource saving, recycling, material substitution, renewable resource development, eco-engineering and so on seem inadequate to cope with the ecological problems of the next century. This is the background against which European technology policy is analyzed. As with the policies of other industrial nations and economic blocs, it obviously provides no way out of the dilemmas: growth and employment versus ecological destruction and North-South disparities. Even according to more restricted cost-benefit criteria, it seems to be deficient (nuclear energy, manned space flight, genetic engineering, and so on). But, in the light of the proposed theory of Schumpeter Dynamics, European technology policy cannot be basically different from what it is because it is constrained by the growing global uniformity. The further evolution of Schumpeter Dynamics, in particular that induced by more severe ecological disasters in the next century and their consequences (wars, epidemics, migrations, crime and so on), may open entirely new vistas and policies. C1 TECH UNIV KARLSRUHE,KARLSRUHE,GERMANY. CR *BUND UMW MIN, 1993, 1992 KONF VER NAT UM, P3 *DTSCH BUND, 1994, UMW 1994 RAT SACHV U, P307 *ENQ KOMM, 1990, 1418030 DOC, P155 *NAT AC SCI, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM, P58 ARRISON TS, 1992, JAPANS GROWING TECHN AYRES RU, 1991, P ARIW SPECIAL C BAD BIJKER WE, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION DAVIS K, 1991, 110 I EN EC BIOM REP, P5 ESSER H, 1994, SOZIALE WELT 94, V1, P16 ESSER J, 1993, POLITIK TECHNIKENTWI, P34 FUNABASHI H, 1992, ENERGY POLITICS SCHU, P265 GALBRAITH JK, 1991, NEW IND STATE GRUPP H, 1992, WISSENSCHAFTS BINDUN, P54 GRUPP JH, 1992, WISSENSCHAFTSBINDUNG, P35 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HUGHES TP, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION JANICKE M, 1986, STAATSVERSAGEN OHMAC JANICKE M, 1989, INTERECONOMICS, V24, P24 KRUPP H, 1991, CONJECTURES CHANCES, P162 KRUPP H, 1992, ENERGY POLITICS SCHU, P28 KRUPP H, 1995, IN PRESS JAPAN ENTWI KUWANO Y, 1992, ENERGY POLITICS SCHU LEGLER H, 1992, INNOVATIONSPOTENTIAL LUHMANN N, 1984, SOZIALE SYSTEME LUHMANN N, 1988, OKOLOGISCHE KOMMUNIK LUHMANN N, 1989, POLIT VIERTELJAHR, V30, P5 LUHMANN N, 1990, SOZIOLOGISCHE AUFKLA, V5 LUHMANN N, 1991, SOZIOLOGIE RISIKOS LUHMANN N, 1992, CARDOZO LAW REV, V3, P1419 MACIOTI M, 1990, EUROPEAN BUSINESS J, V2, P15 MEYERKRAHMER F, 1992, JB ARBEIT TECHNIK MEYERKRAHMER FK, 1990, EVALUATION WIRKSAMKE MEYERKRAHMER FK, 1990, TECHNOLOGIEPOLITIK A NELSON RR, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P193 OGAWA Y, 1991, ENERGY JAPAN, V108, P35 OHNO Y, 1991, ENERGY JAPAN, V110, P24 OKAMATSU S, ENERGY POLITICS SCHU, P344 OKAMATSU S, 1992, ENERGY POLITICS SCHU, P335 RIP A, 1990, TECHNOLOGIEPOLITIK A, P49 RIP A, 1990, TECHNOLOGIEPOLITIK A, P84 RIP A, 1992, RIV STUDIA EPISTEMOL, V2, P69 SCHARPF F, 1991, POLIT VIERTELJAHR, V31, P93 SCHULZE G, 1993, ERLEBNISGESELLSCHAFT SCHUMPETER JA, 1942, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM STARR C, 1992, SCIENCE, V256, P981 SWEDBERG R, 1991, JA SCHJUMPETER EC SO, P301 TAKEUCHI K, NEW GLOBAL STRATEGY WATANABE C, 1992, ENERGY POLITICS SCHU, P243 WETERINGS RAP, 1993, UNPUB MAR WORKSH DUT WHISTON T, 1992, FOP320 FOR ASS SCI T WILLKE H, 1992, IRONIE STAATES GRUND WINZER D, 1992, KFK NACHRICHTEN, V24, P245 YOKOBORI K, 1992, 114 I EN EC BIM REP, P55 NR 53 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 48 IS 1 BP 7 EP 26 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PZ691 UT ISI:A1995PZ69100002 ER PT J AU RAJU, US RANGARAJ, N DATE, AW TI THE INFLUENCE OF DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES ON THE CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS; MODEL; ALTERNATIVES AB Studies on choice of technology are aimed at discovering the development-promoting potential of a specific technology. This requires a holistic description of alternative technologies through a unified set of attributes; followed by a ranking of alternatives within a given development perspective. In this paper the problem of choice of technology is viewed as a technology-ranking problem and is studied by relating it to two development perspectives labeled as: 1) regional self-reliant development and 2) market or growth-oriented development. Five technology alternatives in toilet soap-making are ranked by the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). It is shown that the rankings are significantly altered when the development perspective is changed. C1 INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT MECH ENGN,BOMBAY 400076,INDIA. CR BARON CG, 1980, TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMEN BELTON V, 1985, J OPER RES SOC, V36, P265 BRANS JP, 1984, OPERATIONAL RES 84, P477 DATE AW, 1980, CTR3480ADS REP HIBBARD M, 1982, HUMBOLDT J SOCIAL RE, V9, P1 KAPLINSKY R, 1990, EC SMALL APPROPRIATE KARMARKAR M, 1991, EVALUATION CEMENT MA KARMARKAR M, 1991, TECHNOLOGY EVALUATIO KARMARKAR M, 1992, TECHNOLOGY EVALUATIO LUSK EJ, 1979, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V30, P439 NIJKAMP P, 1977, MULTICRITERIA ANAL R PRASAD AVS, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P151 RAJU US, THESIS IIT BOMBAY RAMANUJAM V, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P81 SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SEN AK, 1975, EMPLOYMENT TECHNOLOG SHARIF MN, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V24, P15 SHARIF MN, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P225 SHRADERFRECHETT.KS, 1985, SCI POLICY ETHJICS E VARGAS LG, 1990, EUR J OPER RES, V48, P2 ZEHEDI F, 1986, INTERFACES, V16, P96 NR 21 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 48 IS 1 BP 27 EP 43 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PZ691 UT ISI:A1995PZ69100003 ER PT J AU MARTENS, B SARETZKI, T TI DEVELOPMENTS OF BIOTECHNOLOGY IN GERMAN-SPEAKING COUNTRIES - AN ANALYSIS BASED ON ECONOMIC AND OCCUPATIONAL DATA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A database containing information about biotechnology in German-speaking countries is used to describe certain economic and occupational features of organizations that are engaged in this field. Regression methods enable us to give overviews based on averages, to describe relationships in a static and dynamic perspective, and to compute forecasts. The results indicate very heterogeneous developments in the industrial use of biotechnology. Particularly, small enterprises show a large growth of economic variables. Occupational and economic features are connected, but the forecasts suggest a stronger development of the economic varaibles over the next years. In general, the empirical findings do not confirm some ethusiastic hopes about a key role of biotechnological industry in the foreseeable future. RP MARTENS, B, UNIV TUEBINGEN,DEPT SOCIOL,WILHELMSTR 36,D-72074 TUBINGEN,GERMANY. CR *BMFT, 1993, BUND BER FORSCH *FAST, 1987, ZUK EUR *ORG EC COOPO DEV, 1989, BIOT EC WID IMP *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1991, BIOT GLOB EC AMMON U, 1986, 6 ENQ KOMM CHANC RIS, P2475 AMMONU U, 1990, BIOTECHNOLOGIE ALS P BALMER B, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P463 BOHRNSTEDT GW, 1988, STATISTICS SOCIAL AN BURRILL GS, 1993, 8TH BIOT IND ERNST Y EVERITT BS, 1983, ADV METHODS DATA EXP HENCKEL D, 1989, INFORMATIONEN RAUMEN, P237 IRVINE J, 1989, RES FORESIGHT LANZAVECCHIA G, 1986, EFWP8756EN EUR F WOR MIETZSCH A, 1990, BIOTECHNOLOGIE JAHR RAU N, 1989, BIOPOTENTIALANALYSE REISS T, 1992, POTENTIALANALYSE AUF SPALDING BJ, 1993, BIO-TECHNOL, V11, P1216 TEITELBAUM R, 1989, GENE DREAMS WALL STR THOMAS SM, 1993, GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE 2 VOLKERT B, 1990, RAUMFORSCHUNG RAUMOR, V48, P109 WAGNERDOEBLER I, 1987, BIOTECHNOLOGIE JAHR, P19 WALSH V, 1993, SCI PUBL POLICY, V20, P138 WHEALE P, 1993, SCI PUBL POLICY, V20, P261 NR 23 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 48 IS 1 BP 45 EP 57 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PZ691 UT ISI:A1995PZ69100004 ER PT J AU MANTEL, SJ ROSEGGER, G MANTEL, SP TI MANAGING TECHNOLOGY AT THE INDIANAPOLIS-500 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Technological advance in a particular field is typically the result of numerous incremental improvements, punctuated occasionally by major breakthroughs. If the agents generating these advances pursue a singular objective, it is possible to describe improvements in the relevant target variable through a technological progress function. Progress in qualifying speeds at the Indianapolis 500 motor race provides a record of this kind. Time trials, in which entrants compete for a position in the starting field by completing four laps (10 miles) at top speed, have been conducted in the same, stylized fashion since 1920. The potential effects of technology-push, in the form of radical increases in speeds, have been attenuated, however, by the race organizer's efforts to keep performance improvement well within the technological frontier. Their objective in managing technology, through the setting of appropriate rules and standards, has been to maintain spectator and sponsor interest by restraining the impact of major innovations. A smooth progress function would indicate the successful pursuit of this objective, whereas major discontinuities would suggest a breakdown of prevailing rules. The record shows that long-term continuity has in fact been maintained, albeit in the framework of distinct strategic regimes, that is, constellations of technology and rules that made for significantly different rates of progress. Tracing the key developments that characterize successive regimes yields useful insights into the ways in which innovations and institutional adaptations interact to produce change in a sociotechnical system. C1 CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV,WEATHERHEAD SCH MANAGEMENT,CLEVELAND,OH 44106. UNIV CINCINNATI,COLL BUSINESS ADM,CINCINNATI,OH 45221. UNIV TOLEDO,COLL BUSINESS ADM,TOLEDO,OH 43606. CR 1993, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS 0517 AYURESS RU, 1988, TECHNOVATION, V7, P87 BARZEL Y, 1972, J ECON THEORY, V4, P72 BLOEMKER A, 1966, 500 MILES GO DAVID PA, 1986, EC HIST MODERN EC, P39 DORSON R, 1974, INDY 500 AM I FIRE FOX JC, 1984, INDIANAPOLIS 500 FOXALL GR, 1991, TECHNOVATION, V11, P367 FOXALL GR, 1992, TECHNOVATION, V12, P1 FUSFELD AR, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P301 GIANTURCO M, 1992, AM HERITAGE INVENTIO, V8, P34 GREENE KB, 1973, SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTE KIRBY G, 1988, AUTOWEEK 0725, P67 SHAW J, 1993, ROAD TRACK, V44, P127 SHAW W, 1955, GENTLEMEN START YOUR TAYLOR R, 1991, INDY 75 YEARS RACING WILSON DG, 1986, AM SCI, V74, P350 NR 17 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 48 IS 1 BP 59 EP 76 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PZ691 UT ISI:A1995PZ69100005 ER PT J AU SHAMA, A TI DEVELOPING AND TESTING A THEORY OF MANAGEMENT TRANSFORMATION FROM PLANNED TO MARKET-ECONOMY - THE CASE OF RUSSIA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This project centers on marketing management during the ongoing economic restructuring of Russia. It is carried out in three sequential stages. First, it generates fundamental information about Russian marketing managers in a centrally planned economy by using qualitative research tools of focus groups conducted in 1989 and 1991. Second, using this fundamental information, it develops a theory of the transformation of marketing management from a planned to a market economy. Finally, it tests this proposed theory, using data from a survey conducted specifically to test the model. RP SHAMA, A, UNIV NEW MEXICO,ROBERT O ANDERSON SCH MANAGEMENT,ALBUQUERQUE,NM 87131. CR 1987, TULANE LAW REV, V61, P788 1990, PEOPLES EC USSR 1987 1990, PEOPLES EC USSR 1990 *GOSC, IND COOP OP 1ST HALF *GREEN EJ, 1988, YALE J INT LAW, P13 *POL, 1987, LAW STAT ENT ASS *POL, 1988, LAW COOP USSR *USSR AC SCI I EC, 1990, PROC FORM ORG DIFF T AGANBEGYAN A, CHALLENGE EC PERESTR AGANBEGYAN A, 1988, PERESTROIKA 1989 ARNDT J, 1983, J MARKETING, V47, P44 ASLUND A, 1989, GORBACHEVS STRUGGLE BEISSINGER MR, 1988, CURRENT HIST OCT COLEMAN F, 1989, NEWSWEEK 0313, P28 COLTON TJ, 1986, DILEMMA REFORM SOVIE DESAI P, 1989, PERESTROIKA PERSPECT DESHPANDE R, 1983, J MARKETING, V47, P101 DOROZHKINA A, SOVIET LIFE DRUUCKER P, 1958, J MARKETING, P252 ENGELS F, 1926, ESSENTIALS MARX, P1888 FINIFTER A, 1990, AUG ANN C AM POL SCI FRANKLIN D, 1988, ECONOMIST, P307 GLASER BG, 1967, DISCOVERY GROUNDED T GOLDMAN M, 1987, GORBACHEV CHALLENGE GOLDMAN M, 1988, CURRENT HIST OCT GOLDMAN M, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V66, P107 GOLDMAN M, 1988, WALL STREET J 0927 GOLDMAN ML, 1989, SUM ANN ED C AM MARK GORBACHEV MS, 1987, PERESTROIKA GREENSBURGER RS, 1989, WALL STREET J 0210 GUMBEL P, 1989, WALL STREET J 0315 HARRINGTON M, 1989, DISSENT WIN HEILBRONER RL, 1988, VEIL EC HEWETT A, OPEN BUSINESS RUSSIA KEREN M, 1992, TRIALS TRANSITION EC KOHLI AK, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 KORNAI J, 1980, EC SHORTAGE KORNAI J, 1990, ROAD FREE EC SHIFTIN KORNAI J, 1990, ZAPALCIVYJ PAMFLET P KOTLER P, 1974, J MARKETING, V39, P20 KOTLER P, 1989, SUM ANN ED C AM MARK LAZER W, 1989, SUM ANN ED C AM MARK MILL JS, 1882, PRINCIPLES POLITICAL NEWMAN B, 1988, WALL STREET J 0617 PIPES R, 1989, POLICY REV WIN QUELCH A, 1991, SLOAN MANAGEMENT WIN, P82 REMNICK D, 1988, WASHINGTON POST 0828 SAVITT R, 1993, 1993 AMA SUMM ED C B SHAMA A, 1991, INT EXECUTIVE, V34, P131 SHAMA A, 1991, INT J ACCOUNTING, V25, P155 SHAMA A, 1991, INT J MANAGEMENT SHAMA A, 1992, INT MARKET REV, V9, P43 SHAMA A, 1992, INT MARKETING REV, V9, P44 SHAMA A, 1993, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT E, V77, P22 SHHAMA A, 1992, PERESTROIKA COMP PER STERN LW, 1980, J MARKETING, V44, P52 YEVTUSHENKO Y, 1988, WORLD PRESS REV ZASLAVSKAYA T, SOVIET LIFE ZASLAVSKAYA T, 1988, SOVIET LIFE DEC NR 59 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL CO INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1995 VL 48 IS 1 BP 77 EP 100 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PZ691 UT ISI:A1995PZ69100006 ER PT J AU Hauptman, O Tomczyk, MS Kiggundu, M TI The emerging role of telecommunication: Extrapolation of novel applications around the world - Introduction to the special issue and summary of content SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 CARLETON UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,OTTAWA,ON K1S 5B6,CANADA. UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,EMERGING TECHNOL MANAGEMENT RES PROGRAM,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP Hauptman, O, UNIV MELBOURNE,MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCH,100 LEICESTER ST,192,CARLTON,VIC 3053,AUSTRALIA. CR ALLEN TJ, 1987, COMMUN RES, V5, P575 GAINES BR, 1998, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V57, P7 GHEMAVAT P, 1991, COMMITMENT DYNAMIC S KEEN PG, 1987, COMMUN RES, V5, P588 STEINFELD CW, 1987, COMMUN RES, V5, P479 NR 5 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 VL 57 IS 1-2 BP 1 EP 6 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YL322 UT ISI:A1998YL32200001 ER PT J AU Croson, DC Fox, JF Ashurkov, VL TI Flexible entry strategies for emerging telecom markets SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The existing technical literature on the telecommunications industry addresses, on both operational and cost dimensions, the relative advantages of different telecommunications technologies. Significant complementary research also exists in the area of entry strategies for developing markets or those without a competitive history. We believe that these two literature bases can combine to form a theory of ''flexible entry,'' in which a firm's telecom technology decisions support entry of potentially high-growth but also high-risk markers, such as those associated with rapidly developing economies. Specifically, we suggest the definition of a systematic framework to balance technological choice and market conditions-two choices to be undertaken concurrently, under conditions of future uncertainty, for a firm contemplating entry. We suggest the use of efficient frontier analysis, trading off flexibility and commitment, for this purpose. Flexibility in this sense represents the ability to redeploy assets to alternate purposes without loss. Commitment, rather than the opposite of flexibility, denotes the ability of a firm to resist bring ''forced out'' of a favorable market. While flexibility preserves capital in the event of poor demand realizations, commitment is essential to continued profitability in the event of favorable demand realizations. Suggestions for future expansion of this framework are proposed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. MCKINSEY & CO INC,BEDMINSTER,NJ. CR 1995, MOBILE COMMUNIC 0209, P1 *INT TEL UN, 1995, UN BREALEY R, 1996, PRINCIPLES CORPORATE CAMPBELL RW, 1995, SOVIET POST SOVIET T CANE A, 1995, FINANCIAL TIMES 1003, R1 CAVES RE, 1984, MULTINATIONAL ENTERP CLEMONS EK, 1991, COMMUN ACM, V34, P24 CLEMONS EK, 1996, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V13, P59 DIXIT AK, 1994, INVESTMENT UNCERTAIN FOX JF, 1996, FLEXIBILITY COMMITME GHEMAWAT P, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P53 GHEMAWAT P, 1991, COMMITMENT DYNAMIC S KEEN PGW, 1994, NETWORKS ACTION BUSI THALER RH, 1992, WINNERS CURSE PARADO NR 14 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 VL 57 IS 1-2 BP 35 EP 52 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YL322 UT ISI:A1998YL32200003 ER PT J AU Stanek, DM Mokhtarian, PL TI Developing models of preference for home-based and center-based telecommuting: Findings and forecasts SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CHOICE MODELS AB This study investigates the preference to telecommute from home and from a center. While home-based telecommuting is fairly commonplace, center-based telecommuting is a relatively recent form that involves traveling to work at an office near home and remote from the regular workplace. The research presented here constitutes one of the first efforts to model the preference for center-based telecommuting. Survey data were collected from center-based telecommuters, home-based telecommuters, and non-telecommuters, as part of a telecommuting center demonstration project in California. Using attitudinal factor scores, as well as travel and sociodemographic variables, the preferences to work from the telecommuting center and to work from home were modeled. Legit models for center preference, home preference, and center versus home preference were estimated. The most frequently significant characteristics were personal benefits at the center, work ethic at home, and age of the respondent. Speculation on the future of the center-based form of telecommuting suggests slow growth for the near term, but potential long-term viability in connection with alternative uses of telecenter facilities and with the trend toward non-territorial office arrangements. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 UNIV CALIF DAVIS,INST TRANSPORTAT STUDIES,DAVIS,CA 95616. TEXAS DEPT TRANSPORTAT,AUSTIN,TX. CR BAGLEY MN, IN PRESS TRANSPORTAT BAGLEY MN, 1994, UCDITSRR944 BENAKIVA M, 1985, DISCRETE CHOICE ANAL BERNARDINO A, 1993, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1413, P22 BERNARDINO AT, 1996, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1552, P161 BRUNSWIK E, 1952, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK BUCKINGER C, 1997, TELECOMMUTING CTR CA DESANCTIS G, 1984, INFORM MANAGE, V7, P133 FISHBEIN M, 1967, READINGS ATTITUDE TH HARTMAN RI, 1991, J BUSINESS PSYCHOL, V6, P207 HAUSER JR, 1978, OPER RES, V26, P406 KOPPELMAN F, 1980, TRANSPORT RES REC, V765, P26 LOCKE EA, 1976, HDB IND ORG PSYCHOL MAHMASSANI HS, 1993, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1413, P31 MEMMOTT FW, 1963, TRAFFIC ENG FEB, P20 MILLER T, 1995, TEL ADV COUNC AUD M MOKHTARIAN PI, 1996, ENVIRON PLANN A, V28, P1877 MOKHTARIAN PL, IN PRESS J AM SOC IN MOKHTARIAN PL, 1991, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1305, P273 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V26, P749 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1996, UCDITSRR9611 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1997, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V31, P35 NILLES JM, 1988, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V22, P301 RAMOND C, 1976, ADVERTISING RES STAT SHELLENBARGER S, 1994, WALL STREET J, B1 STANEK DM, 1995, UCDITSRR9512 SULLIVAN MA, 1993, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1413, P42 VALK PJ, 1997, IN PRESS TRANSPORTAT YEN JR, 1995, 74 ANN M TRANSP RES NR 29 TC 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 VL 57 IS 1-2 BP 53 EP 74 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YL322 UT ISI:A1998YL32200004 ER PT J AU Herkert, JR Nielsen, CS TI Assessing the impact of shift to electronic communication and information dissemination by a professional organization - An analysis of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY; IMPLEMENTATION AB Large, decentralized scientific and engineering organizations based in North America and Europe have identified electronic media as a strategic technology for communication and information dissemination to their members and other stakeholders. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), the largest technical society in the world, recognized its increasing dependence on electronic media and commissioned a study to assess the social, organizational, and economic impacts of this shift on its members and other stakeholders. Results of the study are reported herein. The Delphi research method was chosen to gather expert opinion from 30 IEEE members and other stakeholders regarding their predictions of the range and depth of impacts, types of benefits, and undesirable effects. The purpose of this research is to provide a series of recommendations as to how scientific and technical organizations may take full advantage of electronic media technology, while taking actions to avoid the negative consequences of this technological change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 ROLLINS COLL,ROY E CRUMMER GRAD SCH BUSINESS,WINTER PK,FL 32789. RP Herkert, JR, N CAROLINA STATE UNIV,DIV MULTIDISCIPLINARY STUDIES,RALEIGH,NC 27603. CR *IEEE, 1993, M MEMB NEEDS 21 CENT *IEEE, 1996, STAT VIS TRANS IEEE, P337 BOYNTON AC, 1994, MIS QUART, V18, P299 BYRD TA, 1995, DECISION SCI, V26, P49 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 COOPER RB, 1990, MANAGE SCI, V36, P123 DELBECQ AL, 1975, GROUP TECHNIQUES PRO GARTON L, 1995, COMMUNICATION YB, V18, P434 GRIFFITH TL, 1996, MIS QUART, V20, P99 HERKERT J, 1996, P 1996 INT S TECHN S HOLST P, 1996, INSTITUTE KWON TH, 1987, CRITICAL ISSUES INFO LEONARDBARTON D, 1993, ACAD MANAGE J, V36, P1125 MARKUS ML, 1994, ORGAN SCI, V5, P502 MARKUS ML, 1994, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V35, P11 NIELSEN C, 1993, P ACAD INT BUS ANN M NIELSENSPECTOR C, 1992, GLOBAL ISSUES INFORM ROGERS E, 1986, COMMUNICATION TECHNO ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SAUNDERS CS, 1992, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V8, P63 TURNER C, 1995, ANN REPORT SECRETARY TYRE M, 1993, SLOAN MANAGEMENT FAL, P13 TYRE MJ, 1994, ORGAN SCI, V5, P98 ZMUD RW, 1992, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V9, P148 NR 24 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 VL 57 IS 1-2 BP 75 EP 103 PG 29 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YL322 UT ISI:A1998YL32200005 ER PT J AU Dekimpe, MG Parker, PM Sarvary, M TI Staged estimation of international diffusion models - An application to global cellular telephone adoption SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PATTERNS; PRICE AB This article proposes a method that overcomes a number of problems associated with new product diffusion models noted in the marketing literature. We illustrate the methodology in the context of better understanding global variances in new product adoption. Building on existing diffusion models and sample matching principles from international consumer research, we suggest a ''staged estimation procedure.'' The procedure provides both sensible and robust estimates and remains usable even if the diffusion process is in its earliest stage in most or all countries. In an empirical illustration covering 184 countries on five continents, we use cellular diffusion data to gain insights on how exogenous/endogenous country characteristics affect country-level diffusion patterns. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 INSEAD,F-77305 FONTAINEBLEAU,FRANCE. STANFORD UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,STANFORD,CA 94305. RP Dekimpe, MG, UNIV CATHOLIQUE LOUVAIN,NAAMSESTR 69,B-3000 LOUVAIN,BELGIUM. CR ANDERSON R, 1977, J CONSUM RES, V3, P185 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 DAWAR N, 1994, J MARKETING, V58, P81 DOUGLAS SP, 1983, INT MARKETING RES ENGLEDOW JL, 1975, ADV CONSUMER RES, V2 GATIGNON H, 1985, J CONSUM RES, V11, P849 GATIGNON H, 1989, MARKET SCI, V8, P231 HEELER RM, 1980, MANAGE SCI, V26, P1007 HELSEN K, 1993, J MARKETING, V57, P60 KALE SH, 1987, INT J ADVERTISING, V2, P147 KAMAKURA W, 1988, INT J RES MARK, V5, P1 KATONA G, 1973, INT MARKETING STRATE LEVITT T, 1983, HARVARD BUS REV, V61, P92 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MAHAJAN V, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V45, P221 OHMAE K, 1990, BORDERLESS WORLD, P24 PARKER PM, 1992, J MARKETING RES, V29, P358 ROBERTSON TS, P AM MARK ASS, P328 ROBERTSON TS, 1971, INNOVATIVE BEHAVIOR ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SCHMITTLEIN D, 1982, MARKET SCI, V1, P57 SHETH JN, 1986, J CONSUMER MARKETING, V3, P9 SIMMONDS K, 1985, INT MARKETING REV, V2, P8 SIMON H, 1994, RES TRADITIONS MARKE, P27 SINBA RK, 1992, J MARKETING RES, V24, P116 SRINIVASAN V, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P169 TAKADA H, 1991, J MARKETING, V55, P48 NR 27 TC 21 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 VL 57 IS 1-2 BP 105 EP 132 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YL322 UT ISI:A1998YL32200006 ER PT J AU Katz, JE Aspden, P TI Theories, data, and potential impacts of mobile communications a longitudinal analysis of US National Surveys SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID UNIVERSAL SERVICE; TELEPHONE AB This article examines the extent to which ownership of mobile communications is related to demographic variables and/or functionality needs. The study draws on data from seven national mail or telephone random surveys carried out during the period 1993-1995 and totaling more than 10000 respondents. We found that the key determinants of mobile communications ownership were household income, race/ethnic background, need to be in touch, and social/work mobility. Further, we found that the pager-only group, the cell phone only group, and the cell phone plus pager group had quire different ownership characteristics. While no longer a ''rich man's toy,'' ownership of the cellular telephone is. nevertheless, still associated with the more affluent, although we found evidence that this income effect was declining. Two important variables, gender and feelings of overload, did not appear to have any explanatory power. We speculate that ownership of mobile communications is determined more strongly by social location effects-for example, need to be in touch or being highly mobile-than by gender. Regarding feelings of overload, we found no evidence that ownership of mobile communications generates feelings of overload, controlling for other variables. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc. C1 CTR RES INFORMAT SOC,PENNINGTON,NJ 08534. BELLCORE,SOCIAL SCI RES,MORRISTOWN,NJ. CR 1992, ECONOMIST 0530, P19 1994, COMMON CARRIER 0606 *AP WIR SERV, 1996, SING CEL 1 MILL PAG *CELL TEL IND ASS, 1996, WIR GROWTH SETS NEW *GALL ORG, 1993, MOT CELL IMP SURV *US BUR CENS, 1992, MON INC HOUS FAM PER *US BUR CENS, 1992, STAT ABSTR US AGRESTI A, 1990, CATEGORICAL DATA ANA ANDERSON RH, 1995, UNIVERSAL ACCESS E M ASPDEN P, 1994, N316040 OTA US C ATTEWELL P, 1987, SOCIOLOGICAL THEORY, V5, P87 AUFDERHEIDE P, 1987, J COMMUN, V37, P81 BRIEM V, 1995, ERGONOMICS, V38, P2536 BRYANT CGA, 1991, GIDDENS THEORY STRUC CAMPBELL DT, 1963, EXPT QUASI-EXPT DESI DAVIS DM, 1993, PAC TEL COUNC 15 ANN, V2, P641 DIMMICK JW, 1994, COMMUN RES, V21, P643 FIRESTONE CM, 1996, EMERGING WORLD WIREL GANDY OH, 1993, PANOPTIC SORT POLITI GERGEN KJ, 1991, SATURATED SELF DILEM GIDDENS A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES MODERNI GIDDENS A, 1991, MODERNITY SELF IDENT HENDREN J, 1996, PEPSI OFFER 500000 B KANGASLUONA M, 1976, TELECOMMUN J, V43, P39 KATZ J, UNPUB SYMBOLIC ASPEC KATZ J, 1994, 24350 BELL COMM RES KATZ J, 1997, BEHAV INFORM TECHNOL, V16, P125 KATZ JE, 1988, INFORMATION AGE, V10, P47 KATZ JE, 1990, IEEE TECHNOLOGY SOC, V9, P16 KIESLER S, 1994, ALLURE WIRELESS PREL LANGE K, 1993, TELECOMMUNICATIONS L, P197 MARX GT, 1985, DISSENT, V32, P26 MARX GT, 1985, FUTURIST, V19, P21 MAYER WG, 1994, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V58, P124 MCGOUGH MQ, 1989, POLICE CHIEF JUN, P50 MILLER L, 1996, US TODAY 1009, D1 RAKOW LF, 1993, CRIT STUD MASS COMM, V10, P144 ROOS JP, 1993, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V17, P446 SAWHNEY H, 1994, J BROADCAST ELECTRON, V38, P375 STIENFELD C, 1993, INT COMB ASS ANN M M SZANIAWSKI K, 1995, FINANCIAL TIMES 1127, P5 NR 41 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 VL 57 IS 1-2 BP 133 EP 156 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YL322 UT ISI:A1998YL32200007 ER PT J AU Coates, JF TI Readying children for the future SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 COATES & JARRATT INC,WASHINGTON,DC. CR MEYERS DG, 1996, SCI AM MAY, P70 NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN-FEB PY 1998 VL 57 IS 1-2 BP 157 EP 165 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA YL322 UT ISI:A1998YL32200008 ER PT J AU YIN, JZS TI MANAGING PROCESS INNOVATION THROUGH INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS - EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGICAL DISCONTINUITIES; INVENTION; USER AB This paper developed a present value index (PVI) model to offer a new solution to differing the effects of radical innovation and incremental improvement. After comparing the return from an initial-radical-process innovation and the return from the incremental changes in petroleum refining processes, it was found that incremental improvements generated higher returns than from its initial innovations. The findings suggest that, in contrast to a conventional research and development (R&D) strategy with a focus on state-of-art innovations, manufacturing companies should place sufficient emphasis on incremental capital and operating improvements to fully exploit economic benefits from an innovation. RP YIN, JZS, SETON HALL UNIV,W PAUL STILLMAN SCH BUSINESS,S ORANGE,NJ 07079. CR ABERNATHY WJ, 1974, HARVARD BUS REV, V52, P109 ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 ANDERSON RO, 1984, FUNDAMENTALS PETROLE, P214 ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 AYRES RU, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P229 BERHARDT J, 1970, J IND ECON, V19, P50 BOX GE, 1969, EVOLUTIONARY OPERATI, P3 BOZEMAN B, 1983, INVESTMENTS TECHNOLO, P61 BOZEMAN G, 1983, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG, P61 BUNDGAARDNIELSO.M, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P189 BUTLER JE, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V9, P15 CARAVATTI ML, 1992, RES TECHNOLOGY M SEP, P8 COPELAND TE, 1979, FINANCIAL THEORY COR, P50 DEWAR RD, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P1422 DOSI G, 1994, TECHNICAL CHANGE IND DUIR JH, 1967, OIL GAS J 0821, P74 DURAND T, 1992, RES POLICY, P361 DUTTON JM, RES TECHNOLOGICAL IN, V2, P178 DUTTON JM, 1984, ACAD MANAGE REV, V9, P235 ENOS JL, 1958, J IND ECON, V6, P180 ENOS JL, 1962, PETROLEUM PROGR PROF ETTLIE JE, 1983, ACAD MANAGE J, V26, P682 FLEMMING SC, 1991, RES TECHNOLOGY M SEP, P38 GOLD B, 1981, J IND ECON, V29, P247 HENDERSON R, 1993, RAND J ECON, V24, P248 HIPPEL EV, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION JELINEK M, 1988, READINGS MANAGEMENT KLINE JS, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG, P1 LAKHANI H, 1975, TECHNICAL FORECASTIN, V7, P197 LENZ RC, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P249 LEONARDBARTON D, 1993, ACAD MANAGE J, V36, P1125 MAITAL A, 1990, BOARD, V27, P9 MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARTINO JP, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P105 MASOLOGITES GP, 1977, OIL GAS J REPORT AUG, P396 MCLEAN JG, 1954, GROWTH INTEGRATED OI, P6 MOLLE WL, 1984, OIL REFINERIES PETRO, P6 MORONE JG, 1993, RES TECHNOLOGY M MAR, P16 MYERS S, 1969, SUCCESSFUL INNOVATIO MYERS S, 1979, SUCCESSFUL IND INNOV NELSON WL, 1967, OIL GAS J 0814, P130 NELSON WL, 1974, OIL GAS J 0325, P120 NELSON WL, 1974, OIL GAS J 0422, P132 NELSON WL, 1975, OIL GAS J 0512, P132 PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PORTER ME, 1984, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PRESTON LE, 1964, AM ECON REV, V54, P100 ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC, P12 ROSENBLOOM RS, 1988, READINGS MANAGEMENT, P3 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SAVIOTTI PP, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P309 SCHERER FM, 1982, J IND ECON, V30, P225 SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHROEDER DM, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V11, P25 SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P119 SIWOLOP S, 1989, FINANCIAL WORLD NOV, P38 SLAUGHTER S, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P81 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 THUROW LC, 1987, SCIENCE, V238, P1659 TSUJI K, 1982, SCALE PRODUCTION SYS, P91 TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 TYRE M, 1991, TECHNOLOGY REV OCT, P59 TYRE MJ, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P57 WYCKOFF AW, 1988, MANAGE SCI, V34, P496 YOUNG A, 1993, J POLIT ECON, V101, P443 NR 67 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 47 IS 3 BP 265 EP 276 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PU792 UT ISI:A1994PU79200001 ER PT J AU RHYNE, RF TI CONTEXTUAL DISCIPLINE - ITS ESSENTIALITY WITHIN SOCIAL-SYSTEMS ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB It is argued that contextual discipline, under which all acts of judgment (such as assumptions) during a given evaluation are drawn from one designated contextual pattern, is essential if such judgments are to be associated later in any meaningful way. Further, if several studies are conducted with reference to dissimilar contexts, expect their results to be as nonintegrable as parts of several randomly selected jigsaw puzzles. A corresponding requirement exists in regard to statistical inference: if contextual discipline is lacking, so that data are drawn from dissimilar contexts, do not mix those data together. The importance of contextual discipline is observable from practice, but it can be supported logically as well. The reasons derive from a context-matching theory of choosing (decision making). That theory is treated in detail in a companion paper; here, it is summarily described and defended. Past examples showing the importance of contextual discipline are adduced, along with revolutionary impacts upon social-systems analysis if the case presented here is sound. CR BARNEY GO, 1975, GLOBAL 2000 REPORT P BEACH LR, 1990, IMAGE THEORY DECISIO DAWES RN, 1988, RATIONAL CHOICE UNCE HASTIE R, 1991, PSYCHOL SCI, V2, P135 HOGARTH R, 1987, JUDGMENT CHOICE MARGOLIS H, 1987, PATTERNS THINKING CO RACHLIN H, 1989, JUDGMENT DECISION CH RAIFFA H, 1970, DECISION ANAL RHYNE R, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P331 RHYNE RF, 1973 ANN M ORSA RHYNE RF, IN PRESS INDONESIAN RHYNE RF, UNPUB INTUITIVE CHAR RHYNE RF, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P133 TVERSKY A, 1972, PSYCHOL REV, V79, P281 TVERSKY A, 1981, SCIENCE, V211, P453 NR 15 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 47 IS 3 BP 277 EP 292 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PU792 UT ISI:A1994PU79200002 ER PT J AU BLACK, RL OLDHAM, WJB MARCY, WM TI TRAINING KSIM MODELS FROM TIME-SERIES DATA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SYSTEM DYNAMICS; CAUSALITY AB The suitability of KSIM models derived from group participation strategies is critically evaluated in a comparison with models generated by a gradient descent learning algorithm. Two learning algorithms are described to train KSIM socioeconomic models. The algorithms are used to train KSIM cross-impact matrices from initially random weights to final values producing a model that will closely fit a given time series. The time series can be obtained by integrating a KSIM model or by using raw data from other sources. KSIM modeling previously relied on insight, intuition, or knowledge of KSIM modeling to find suitable parameters. The training algorithms provide an organized approach to the minimization of a suitable cost function. At the same time, any system knowledge can be incorporated into initial conditions with learning performed around solid physical foundations. Some limits of the dynamic performance of the KSIM model are noted, further establishing the unsuitability of the KSIM model for many real systems. C1 TEXAS TECH UNIV,DEPT COMP SCI,LUBBOCK,TX 79409. CR BORSELLINO A, 1980, 1979 VIT VOLT S MATH BURNS JR, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V14, P387 FORRESTER JW, 1968, PRINCIPLES SYSTEMS GOLDSTEIN H, 1950, CLASSICAL MECHANICS GRAHAM R, 1992, ACCESS OCT, P11 HERTZ J, 1991, LECTURE NOTES SANTA, V1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM KANE J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P129 KANE J, 1973, WATER RESOUR RES, V9, P65 KANE JA, 1972, SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNI, V6, P283 MOHAPATRA PKJ, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P363 NOONBURG VW, 1989, SIAM J APPL MATH, V49, P1779 PEARLMUTTER BA, 1989, NEURAL COMPUT, V1, P263 PESCHEL M, 1986, PREDATOR PREY MODEL NR 14 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1994 VL 47 IS 3 BP 293 EP 307 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PU792 UT ISI:A1994PU79200003 ER PT J AU GORDON, TJ GLENN, JC TI AN INTRODUCTION TO THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The pace, complexity, and globalization of change requires attention to the future. The change of millennia-the coming of the year 2001 - provides an opportunity, a psychological focus, for a global review of past achievements and problems and a unique chance to assess and reflect on future issues and opportunities. Unfortunately, there is as yet no mechanism or information utility to support a worldwide effort to study past achievements and problems or future issues and opportunities. Although there are many individual, isolated, special purpose, and one-time study efforts underway, there is no international system that can provide coherence or continuity to these studies, including feedback and sharing of information, and, in particular, the systematic exploration of future possibilities and policy alternatives. With growing interest in the future, the spread of instantaneous and global communications, the advent of powerful new nondeterministic modeling techniques, the ability to evoke, capture, and share information and perceptions with systematic questioning techniques and software, the proliferation of data bases, and knowledge visualization, it is now possible for futurists, scholars and others around the world to interact globally and take a fresh look at the future possibilities and policies in ways not previously possible. As the World Bank provides an ongoing system for research and feedback to improve economic policy, so too the United Nations University could provide an ongoing system for the improvement of futures research and its application to the policy process. According to a series of interviews, questionnaires, and meetings with leading futurists and scholars around the world, the proposed ''Millenium Project'' has the potential to become such a system. This study had as its principal objective determining the design of an information system that could effectively tap contributors, worldwide, to focus on lessons of the past that bear on world issues and the potential of future developments for intensifying or mitigating these and future issues. The first phase of the feasibility study was both methodological and substantive. Worldwide panels of experts contributed their judgments about the method or process of organizing the project; and the system that emerged from this interaction was applied in a prototype study to the issues of growing world population and the environment. During the first phase of the feasibility study, we found that: 1 .The Millennium Project is feasible and likely to be helpful to many institutions in examining and resolving policy issues at several levels. An overview of the project design and objectives appears in Section 2 of this article. 2. Organizations that have an issues scanning function, or have a mandate to keep abreast of a broad range of futures thinking, have a need for access to a non-political, scholarly, and international system of future studies. Such organizations have requested continued participation in the second and third phase of this feasibility study, as well as establishing formal relations with the full Millennium Project. 3. While several questions remain, the design features of a system to collect judgments using the Delphi process that were suggested by the international panel (outlined elsewhere in this report) form a straightforward operational system. Among the remaining questions are the design and use of international information systems and data bases, integration with quantitative techniques such as system modeling, the requirements for special study teams, and institutionalization and financial support. The design of the operational system is described in detail in Section 3 of this report. 4. Cost estimates have been made for establishing international panels and collecting and analyzing information they provide using the Delphi process. Several assumptions are required. If a maximum of four topics are addressed in a particular year, each of the four panels consists of 150-200 people, the staff is kept to a base of three people with an additional 1.5 per panel, and advisors are paid an honorarium of $1,500, then the cost of this element of the full scale Project is likely to be approximately $900,000 per year. While communications modes are important in terms of timing and information access, the costs of communications are the smallest of the Project's cost elements. Details of our cost estimates appear in Section 7 of this report. This is not the final feasibility study report, but only a report on part of Phase I. As such, it contains our initial findings about how the Project might be organized. We welcome comments from the reader. Please consider this as work in progress. C1 UNU,MILLENNIUM PROJECT FEASIBIL STUDY,4421 GARRISON ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. CR GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V38, P111 NR 1 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 47 IS 2 BP 147 EP 170 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PK383 UT ISI:A1994PK38300001 ER PT J AU DEGREENE, KB TI THE ROCKY PATH TO COMPLEX-SYSTEMS INDICATORS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GROWTH; EVOLUTION; FIELD AB Traditional economic and social indicators are briefly discussed and a number of deficiencies and misuses pointed out. Significantly, many economic indicators have lost their predictive capability, and most of the social indicators have been collected outside a theoretical framework. The importance of the current collection of ecological and large-scale natural environmental indicators is stressed. It is proposed that the world ecosystem or force-field can provide more immediately powerful and convincing evidence of instability and structural change than can the intersecting world societal-field. The paper's main substantive emphasis is on the recognition of indicators within some spatiotemporal context that are emergent at the level of the dynamics of complex systems. Such indicators are no mere aggregates. The author's theoretical development of the Kondratiev cycle/structure as a macropsychological order parameter is extended. Instabilities at both the beginnings and ends of the Kondratievs are discussed. A number of new kinds of indicators related to the evolutionary phases of the Kondratiev, some considered to the ''surprising,'' are identified. The paper emphasizes that the US national and world economies are in the phase of depression of Kondratiev Number Four, and that the world natural environment is in a precariously metastable state. The paper concludes with an interpretation of the research that suggests some perhaps radically different directions for further study and practice. C1 UNIV SO CALIF,INST SAFETY & SYST MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR ALLEN PM, 1981, ENVIRON PLANN A, V13, P167 ARGENTI J, 1976, CORPORATE COLLAPSE C AYRES RU, 1993, AM SCI, V81, P448 BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BROWN LR, 1992, VITAL SIGNS 1992 TRE CLARK S, 1994, GREENPEACE, V11, P2 DEGREENE K, 1994, J THEORETICAL POLITI, V6, P161 DEGREENE KB, 1982, ADAPTIVE ORG ANTICIP DEGREENE KB, 1989, SYST RES, V6, P277 DEGREENE KB, 1990, SYST RES, V7, P77 DEGREENE KB, 1993, EUR J OPER RES, V69, P14 DEGREENE KB, 1993, J SOC EVOL SYST, V16, P215 DEGREENE KB, 1993, SYST RES, V10, P41 DEGREENE KB, 1993, SYSTEMS BASED APPROA ELGIN DS, 1977, ASSESSMENT FUTURE NA, V2 FIGGIE HE, 1992, BANKRUPTCY 1995 COMI FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FORRESTER JW, 1976, TECH FORECAST SOCIAL, V9, P51 FORRESTER JW, 1977, ECONOMIST, V125, P525 FORRESTER JW, 1993, SYSTEMS BASED APPROA, P199 GOLDSTEIN JS, 1988, LONG CYCLES PROSPERI HAKEN H, 1983, SYNERGETICS JANTSCH E, 1980, SELF ORG UNIVERSE SC KENNEDY P, 1993, PREPARING 21ST CENTU KONDRATIEFF ND, 1984, LONG WAVE CYCLE LEWIN K, 1951, FIELD THEORY SOCIAL MENSCH G, 1984, SCHUMPETER CLOCK MEYER F, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P285 MODIS T, 1992, PREDICTIONS SOC TELL MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR NICOLIS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT OF CHAOS REPETTO R, 1992, SCI AM, V266, P94 SCHAEFFER RK, 1989, WAR WORLD SYSTEM THOM R, 1975, STRUCTURAL STABILITY VANDUIJN JJ, 1983, LONG WAVE EC LIFE VASKO T, 1987, LONG WAVE DEBATE VASKO T, 1990, LIFE CYCLES LONG WAV VONFOERSTER H, 1960, SCIENCE, V132, P1291 WEIDLICH W, 1983, CONCEPTS MODELS QUAN WILSON KG, 1979, SCI AM, V241, P158 ZEEMAN EC, 1977, CATASTROPHE THEORY S NR 43 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 47 IS 2 BP 171 EP 188 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PK383 UT ISI:A1994PK38300002 ER PT J AU GEISLER, E TI KEY OUTPUT INDICATORS IN PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ASSESSING BASIC RESEARCH; INDUSTRIAL-INNOVATION; ACADEMIC RESEARCH; RADIO ASTRONOMY; MANAGEMENT; INTENSITY; SCIENCE; MODEL AB This paper proposes a model of performance evaluation of Research and Development (R&D) organizations, which employs a macro index of Key Output Indicators (KOI) as a figure of merit. The KOI value is obtained by integration of indexes of performance of four stages of the R&D process: immediate, intermediate, preultimate, and ultimate. Multiple indicators (quantiative and qualitative) are used to construct the indexes. An illustrative application is shown for two federal R&D laboratories and an evaluative comparison is made between the laboratories. Benefits of the model include the focus on users and impactees and the composite aspect of the overall index. Managerial implications are discussed. RP GEISLER, E, UNIV WISCONSIN,DEPT MANAGEMENT,WHITEWATER,WI 53190. CR ALLEN TJ, 1980, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V27, P2 CAPRON H, 1992, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG, V3, P1195 DILL DD, 1984, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V31, P138 FRAME JD, 1983, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V30, P106 GAMBARDELLA A, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P391 GEISLER E, 1983, P S MANAGEMENT TECHN GEISLER E, 1992, APR TIMS ORSA NAT M GRILICHES Z, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI HOLBROOK JA, 1992, SCI PUBL POLICY, V19, P267 HUGHES K, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P301 HULL FM, 1985, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V32, P78 IRVINE J, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P213 JENSEN E, 1987, J IND ECON, V26, P83 LEVINSON NS, 1983, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V30, P119 MANSFIELD E, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1991, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V34, P24 MANSFIELD E, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P295 MARAZZI C, 1985, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V32, P55 MARTIN BR, 1983, RES POLICY, V12, P61 PALDA KS, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P187 PARK J, 1991, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V38, P157 PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PAVITT K, 1984, SCI PUBL POLICY, V11, P21 PAVITT K, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P109 PFETSCH F, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 ROBB WL, 1991, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V34, P16 RUBENSTEIN AH, 1988, GOVT INNOVATION POLI, P185 RUBENSTEIN AH, 1991, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V6, P181 SCHAINBLATT AH, 1982, RES MANAGE, V25, P10 SENKER J, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P29 SOUDER WE, 1980, RES MANAGE, V23, P10 VENDERWERF PA, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P315 NR 32 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 47 IS 2 BP 189 EP 203 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PK383 UT ISI:A1994PK38300003 ER PT J AU WILLCOCKS, L GRIFFITHS, C TI PREDICTING RISK OF FAILURE IN LARGE-SCALE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PROJECTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Major Information Technology (IT) projects incur significant risks. The paper reviews existing research studies and frameworks in order to delineate such risks and then analyzes seven major technology-based projects in terms of risks undergone and differing levels of success. A process-oriented framework, developed from organization studies, is then put forward and used to analyze the case histories further. It is suggested that risk analysis in large-scale IT projects is a critical task, setting the risk parameters in which subsequent management needs to take place. All too often risk is underanalyzed and undermanaged, however. In particular, undue reliance is placed on statistical and finance-based techniques that surrender broad risk analysis for an insufficient, and often spurious accuracy, overfocused on potential economic costs rather than leading on to improved risk management. The paper pulls out the significant risks experienced in major IT projects and puts forward a complementary risk profiling tool that can be used to help predict risks in future projects. C1 UNIV LONDON,IMPERIAL COLL,KOBLER UNIT,LONDON,ENGLAND. RP WILLCOCKS, L, TEMPLETON COLL,OXFORD INST INFORMAT MANAGEMENT,OXFORD OX1 5NY,ENGLAND. CR 1992, COMPUTER WEEKLY 1212, P12 APPLETON D, 1991, DATAMATION 0115, P63 BANERJI S, 1989, PC WORLD INDIA MAY, P15 BEATH C, 1989, RPD892 TEMPL COLL OX BESSANT J, 1991, MANAGING ADV MANUFAC CASH J, 1992, CORPORATE INFORMATIO CHARETTE R, 1991, APPLICATION STRATEGI COLLINGRIDGE D, 1992, MANAGEMENT SCALE COOKE K, 1994, FINANCIAL TIMES 0113 CORDER C, 1989, TAMING YOUR CO COMPU CURRIE W, 1994, NEW TECH WORK EMPLOY, V9, P19 DAVIDSON FP, 1991, COST ENG, V33, P15 DEGREENE K, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P349 DONOVAN L, 1993, FINANCIAL TIMES 0720 DOUGLAS M, 1983, RISK CULTURE GRIFFITHS C, 1994, INFORMATION MANAGEME HARROW J, 1992, REDISCOVERING PUBLIC HOCHSTRASER B, 1991, CONTROLLING IT INVES HULL J, 1990, PROJECT MANAGEMENT, V8, P152 ILIFF M, 1994, INFORMATION MANAGEME KEARNEY AT, 1990, BREAKING BARRIERS IT KEEN P, 1991, SHAPING FUTURE KING J, 1990, SINGAPORE LEADERSHIP KING J, 1990, SINGAPORE TRADENET A KUMAR K, 1990, COMMUN ACM, V33, P203 LYYTINEN K, 1987, OXFORD SURVEYS INFOR, V4, P257 MADON S, 1991, THEIS IMPERIAL COLLE MADON S, 1992, J INFORMATION TECHNO, V7, P20 MARGETTS H, 1991, PUBLIC ADM, V69, P183 MORRIS P, 1987, ANATOMY MAJOR PROJEC MORTON S, 1991, CORPORATION 1990S PARKER M, 1988, INFORMATION EC LINKI PATEL N, 1987, TRENDS IT APPLICATIO, V3 PETTIGREW A, 1991, MANAGING CHANGE COMP PETTIGREW A, 1992, SHAPING STRATEGIC CH PIKE RH, 1991, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V19, P235 POST G, 1986, MIS Q DEC, P362 RAPAPORT I, 1992, TECHNOLOGY MINITEL S ROGERS E, 1985, INNOVATION PUBLIC SE SISODIA RS, 1992, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P40 STRASSMAN PA, 1985, INFORMATION PAYOFF T WALSHAM G, 1992, INTERPRETING INFORMA WARNER F, 1992, RISK ANAL PERCEPTION WATERS R, 1993, FINANCIAL TIMES 0312, P11 WATERS R, 1993, FINANCIAL TIMES 0312, P19 WILLCOCKS L, 1987, BUSINESS CASE FILE I WILLCOCKS L, 1987, COMPUTERISING WORK P WILLCOCKS L, 1994, EUROPEAN J INFORMATI, V4, P1 WILLCOCKS L, 1994, INFORMATION MANAGEME WILLCOCKS L, 1994, INFORMATIZATION SEP WILLIAMS TM, 1990, INT J PROJ MAN, V8, P84 NR 51 TC 15 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 47 IS 2 BP 205 EP 228 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PK383 UT ISI:A1994PK38300004 ER PT J AU BOWONDER, B MIYAKE, T LINSTONE, HA TI THE JAPANESE INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS FOR INDUSTRIAL-GROWTH - A SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE .1. SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FUZZY-LOGIC; TECHNOLOGY; COMPETITIVENESS; INNOVATION; STRATEGY; MARKET; FIRM AB The two-part article focuses on the unique institutional setting which has enabled Japan to become a leader in rapid technology-based industrial growth. The innovation systems of the United States and Japan are compared. Three cases - fuzzy logic, active matrix crystal displays, and virtual reality - are examined. The underlying systemic characteristics are then probed. C1 NEW COSMOS ELECT CO,OSAKA,JAPAN. PORTLAND STATE UNIV,PORTLAND,OR 97207. RP BOWONDER, B, COLL INDIA,ADM STAFF,HYDERABAD 500049,INDIA. CR INT TRADE 1988 1989 1987, COUNCIL COMPETITIVEN 1988, FUTURE TECHNOLOGY JA 1990, TECHNO JAPAN, V23, P11 1990, TECHNO JAPAN, V23, P47 1990, TECHNO JAPAN, V23, P9 1992, COMPETITIVE STRENGTH 1993, AIST TRENDS PRINCIPA ALIC JA, 1988, MECH ENG, V110, P28 ANCHORDOGUY M, 1988, INT ORGAN, V42, P509 ANCHORDOGUY M, 1988, POLITICAL SCI Q, V103, P707 AOKI M, 1986, AM ECON REV, V76, P971 AOKI M, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG AOKI M, 1988, INCENTIVES BARGAININ AOKI M, 1988, JAPANESE BUREAUCRACY, P265 AOKI M, 1990, FIRM NEXUS TREATIES, P26 ARMSTRONG L, 1990, BUS WEEK, V3153, P81 ARMSTRONG L, 1992, BUS WEEK, V3260, P90 BELL TE, 1985, IEEE SPECTRUM, V22, P46 BERGLOF E, 1990, FIRM NEXUS TREATIES, P237 BORRUS M, 1986, NATIONAL POLICIES DE, P111 BOWONDER B, IN PRESS INT J TECHN BOWONDER B, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P249 BOWONDER B, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P279 BOWONDER B, 1990, FUTURES, V22, P21 BOWONDER B, 1991, SCI PUBL POLICY, V18, P93 BOWONDER B, 1992, CREATIVITY INNOVATIO, V1, P75 BOWONDER B, 1992, INT J INFORM MANAGE, V12, P39 BOWONDER B, 1992, SCI PUBL POLICY, V19, P207 BOWONDER B, 1992, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V4, P51 BOWONDER B, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P757 BOWONDER B, 1993, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V8, P135 BRANSCOMB LM, 1992, HARVARD BUS REV, V10, P24 CLARK KB, 1990, 90005 HARV BUS SCH W COHEN S, 1988, SCIENCE, V239, P1110 DARROW WP, 1987, INTERFACES, V17, P86 DERTOUZOS ML, 1990, MADE AM REGAINING PR DIXON JR, 1990, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V32, P1 DORE R, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABI, P65 DRUCKER PF, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V88, P65 ERGAS H, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN, P191 ETO H, 1985, INNOVATIONS MANAGEME, P145 FEIGENBAUM FA, 1984, 5TH GENERATION FLAIG LS, 1992, ELECT BUSINESS, V18, P153 FLORIDA R, 1991, TECHNOL REV, V96, P42 FREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNOLOGY POLICY EC FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P330 FRIEDMANN D, 1988, MISUNDERSTOOD MIRACL FUJIMORI I, 1990, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V261, P31 GAMOTA G, 1988, GAINING GROUND JAPAN GERLACH M, 1992, ALLIANCE CAPITALISM GREGORY G, 1986, JAPANESE ELECTRONICS HALLETT J, 1992, BYTE, V17, P179 HAMEL G, 1989, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P133 HAMILTON JOC, 1992, BUS WEEK, V3275, P52 HAYASHI K, 1992, TECHNO JAPAN, V25, P18 HAYASHI K, 1992, TECHNO JAPAN, V25, P28 HAYASHI K, 1992, TECHNO JAPAN, V25, P41 HAYASHI K, 1992, TECHNO JAPAN, V25, P8 HAYASHI K, 1993, J ELECTRONIC ENG, V30, P30 HIROSE M, 1992, JAPAN COMPUTING Q, V92, P38 IMAI K, 1985, UNEASY ALLIANCE, P337 IMAI K, 1988, IND POLICY JAPAN, P205 IMAI M, 1986, KAIZEN KEY JAPANS CO IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI PICKIN ISHIDA Y, 1987, ASIAN ELECTRONICS UN, V5, P76 ISHIKAWA T, 1987, VOCATIONAL TRAINING JAIKUMAR R, 1992, MANUF ENG, V109, P128 JOHNSON C, 1982, MITI JAPANESE MIRACL JOHNSON C, 1988, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V30, P34 JORDE TM, 1989, CALIF MANAGE REV, V31, P25 KAGANO T, 1985, STRATEGIC VERSUS EVO KARATSU H, 1988, TQC WISDOM JAPAN KODAMA F, 1991, SCI PUBL POLICY, V18, P385 KODAMA F, 1992, HARVARD BUS REV, V70, P70 KOIKE K, 1990, FIRM NEXUS TREATIES, P185 KONDO Y, 1988, JURANS QUALITY CONTR KRUEGER M, 1983, ARTIFICIAL REALITY KUO W, 1990, IND ENG, V24, P23 KURIHARA T, 1991, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V268, P44 LAGLOIS RN, 1988, MICROELECTRONICS LAWSON EE, 1992, ULTIMATE ADVANTAGE C LEONARD D, 1992, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V33, P23 LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21ST CENTU LYNN L, 1988, ORG BUSINESS TRADE A MASOUKA F, 1991, J ELECTRONIC ENG, V28, P25 MCDONALD J, 1989, J PORTFOLIO MANAGE, V16, P90 MCMILLAN CJ, 1984, JAPANESE IND SYSTEM MONDEN Y, 1985, INNOVATIONS MANAGEME, P41 MOWERY DC, 1990, CCC903 U CAL WORK PA MOWREY DC, 1993, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V35, P9 NAGAO T, 1985, INNOVATIONS MANAGEME, P23 NANTO D, 1991, 91477E C RES SERV NIELSEN RP, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V9, P475 NONAKA I, 1989, J BUS VENTURING, V4, P299 NONAKA I, 1990, MANAGING GLOBAL FIRM, P69 OGAWA Y, 1989, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V254, P33 OHMAE K, 1985, TRIAD POWER COMING S OKIMOTO D, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG, P541 OKIMOTO D, 1989, MITI MARKET ORRU M, 1989, ORGAN STUD, V10, P549 PATRICK H, 1976, ASIAS NEXT GIANT PEARSON G, 1988, ENG MANAGEMENT REV, V16, P10 PEGELS C, 1984, JAPAN VERSUS W PIORE MJ, 1984, 2ND IND DIVIDE ROSENBERG N, 1988, AM ECON REV, V78, P229 ROSENBLOOM RS, 1987, CALIF MANAGE REV, V29, P51 SANGALLI A, 1992, NEW SCI, V133, P36 SCHWARTZ DG, 1992, IEEE SPECTRUM, V129, P32 SHARIF MN, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P217 SIMON HA, 1969, SCI ARTIFICIAL TAKAYANAGI S, 1985, INNOVATIONS MANAGEME, P67 TAKEUCHI H, 1985, MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE, P18 TANI A, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P191 TATSUNO SM, 1990, CREATED JAPAN IMITAT TEECE DJ, 1990, DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES THUROW L, 1985, MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE, P188 THUROW L, 1992, SLOAN MANAGEMENT REV, V33 TROJER FJ, 1987, TECHNOLOGY INT RELAT, P105 TSURUMI Y, 1976, JAPANESE ARE COMING UGHANWA DO, 1989, ROLE DESIGN INT COMP URABE K, 1988, INNOVATION MANAGEMEN, P3 VOGEL E, 1986, JAPAN NUMBER ONE REV WESTNEY DE, 1985, TECHNOL SOC, V7, P315 WILLIAMS T, 1992, COMPUT DES, V31, P113 WILLIAMSON OE, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P75 WOMACK JP, 1990, MACHINE CHANGED WORL WOOD P, 1992, SEMICONDUCTORS INT, V5, P20 WOODARD OC, 1992, BYTE, V17, P159 YAMANE T, 1990, TECHNO JAPAN, V23, P12 YAMANE T, 1990, TECHNO JAPAN, V23, P4 YAMANE T, 1991, TECHNO JAPAN, V24, P63 YONEMOTO K, 1992, ROBOTIZATION JAPAN YONEMOTO K, 1993, ROBOTIZATION JAPAN NR 134 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 47 IS 2 BP 229 EP 254 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PK383 UT ISI:A1994PK38300005 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI INTEGRATED PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS - A BUSINESS FORM FOR THE FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD OCT PY 1994 VL 47 IS 2 BP 255 EP 259 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PK383 UT ISI:A1994PK38300006 ER PT J AU LINSTONE, HA TI NEW ERA - NEW CHALLENGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FUTURE AB On the occasion of the 25-year anniversary of the Journal, the editor discusses the challenge of the coming decades: to deal with the combined impact of the population and technology explosions, which are creating the shrunken global megalopolis. This complex system, in which everything interacts with everything, cries out for new thinking, with new modes of inquiry and new metaphors. The multiple perspective concept is used as an illustration, with particular focus on the discounting dilemma and the impact of information technology on organizations. CR 1990, NY TIMES 0528, A1 1992, NY TIMES 0902 1992, NY TIMES 0905 1992, NY TIMES 0916 1993, LOS ANGELES TIM 0106 BARBER BR, 1992, ATLANTIC, V269, P53 BENNIS W, 1985, LEADERS, P87 BERRY BJL, 1994, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V47, P115 BOWONDER B, UNPUB TECHNOLOGICAL BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BURNETT MS, 1992, JUL P ANN M INT SOC CETRON MJ, 1977, FUTURES RES NEW DIRE, P214 CHURCHMAN CW, 1982, THOUGHT WISDOM, P21 COATES JF, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P309 COOPER ML, 1992, RESOURCES FUTURE, P108 CRICHTON M, 1991, JURASSIC PARK, P306 DATOR J, 1994, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V46, P59 FORRESTER JW, 1971, WORLD DYNAMICS GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 HEIN S, 1994, JUN ANN M INT SOC SY HOWLAND M, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P185 HUBER GP, 1990, ACAD MANAGE REV, V15, P47 KENNEDY P, 1989, RISE FALL GREAT POWE, R16 KOTKIN J, 1993, TRIBES RACE RELIGION KUNREUTHER HC, 1983, RISK ANAL DECISION P LINSTONE HA, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P335 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P153 LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21ST CENTU MADISON J, FEDERALIST MARUYAMA M, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V45, P93 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH ROTHENBERG J, 1992, TIME COMPARISONS PUB SLOVIC P, 1980, SOC RISK ASSESSMENT SLOVIC P, 1981, FACTS FEARS UNDERSTA TAKEDA S, 1994, FEB BROOK I JETRO S NR 36 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 1 EP 20 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400001 ER PT J AU COATES, JF MAHAFFIE, JB HINES, A TI TECHNOLOGICAL-FORECASTING - 1970-1993 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 23 EP 33 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400002 ER PT J AU KASH, DE RYCROFT, RW TI TECHNOLOGY POLICY - FITTING CONCEPT WITH REALITY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB We have crossed an historical Rubicon into an era in which the capacity to innovative increasingly complex technologies has created a set of opportunities and problems that make our reductionist and simplistic linear models of policy and governance obsolete. America must base its technology policy on a synthesis of both international experience and new conceptualizations. The most important recent experience with successful technologies innovation has taken place in Asia, whereas the most rapid conceptual advances appear to be occurring in Europe and the U.S. Complexity is the key factor in both. C1 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,ELLIOTT SCH INT AFFAIRS,CTR INT SCI & TECHNOL POLICY,WASHINGTON,DC 20052. RP KASH, DE, GEORGE MASON UNIV,INST PUBL POLICY,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. CR 1993, BUSINESS WEEK 0802, P1 *JAP EC I, 1984, JAP IND POL, V7 ALIC JA, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P359 ALLEN PM, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P95 BABA Y, 1993, INT SOCIAL SCI J FEB, P26 BRINKLEY A, 1993, NEW YORK TIMES 0704, P22 BROWN T, 1993, IND WEEK 0118, P22 BURGESS J, 1993, WASHINGTON POST 1228, D1 CLINTON WJ, 1993, TECHNOLOGY AM E 0222 CLINTON WJ, 1993, TECHNOLOGY EC GROWTH COOPER KJ, 1993, WASH POST 0713, A1 DEWAR H, 1993, WASHINGTON POST 1121, A1 DOSI G, 1991, SCI PUBLIC POLIC DEC, P359 DOSI G, 1993, COUNTRY COMPETITIVEN, P251 DOSI G, 1993, SEP EUR C SER EV NEO, P3 FALLOWS J, 1993, ATLANTIC MONTHLY DEC, P61 FALLOWS J, 1993, ATLANTIC MONTHLY NOV, P69 FALLOWS J, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY JAN, P76 FERGUSON CH, 1990, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P55 FLORIDA R, 1993, FUTURES JUL, P637 FLORIDA R, 1993, MASS PRODUCTION JAPA HAMPDENTURNER C, 1993, 7 CULTURES CAPITALIS JOHNSON C, 1993, CALIFORNAI MANAG SUM, P51 JUDGE AJN, 1993, METAPHOR LANGUAG APR, P275 KAPLAN G, 1993, IEEE SPECTRUM SEP, P25 KLINE SJ, 1992, BRIDGE SPR, P12 KODAMA F, 1992, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P72 LARSSON S, 1993, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, P39 LARSSON S, 1993, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, P46 LAWRENCE RZ, 1993, J EC PERSPECTIVE SUM, P3 LEONARDBARTON D, 1992, SLOAN MANAGEMENT FAL, P23 MCCRAW TM, 1992, AM SCHOLAR SUM, P353 MEYERS PW, 1990, RES POLICY APR, P97 MICHAEL DN, 1993, FUTURES JAN, P581 MICHAEL DN, 1993, FUTURES JAN, P83 MORGAN G, 1983, ADM SCI Q DEC, P603 MORRIS CR, 1993, ATLANTIC MONTHLY JUL, P50 NONAKA I, 1991, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P10 PHILLIPS K, 1993, BOILING POINT REPUBL, P223 PIANIN E, 1993, WASH POST 0422, A1 PORT O, 1992, BUS WEEK, P178 REICH RB, 1992, DISSENT WIN, P45 ROMME G, 1990, NEW EXPLORATIONS EC, P38 ROTHWELL R, 1992, R D MANAGEMENT JUL, P232 SCHAFF DK, 1992, FUTURICS, P54 SHERIDAN JH, 1993, IND WEEK 0419, P33 SPERLING G, 1993, CHRISTIAN MONITO NOV, P18 TEECE D, 1993, J ECON LIT, P199 THOMAS R, 1993, NEWSWEEK 0712, P38 THUROW LC, 1992, HEAD HEAD COMING EC, P40 WAHLSTROM B, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P351 WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING, P252 WHEATLEY M, 1992, LEADERSHIP NEW SCI L, P139 YOSHIDA K, 1992, COLUMBIA J WORLD WIN, P30 NR 54 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 35 EP 48 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400003 ER PT J AU GORDON, T GREENSPAN, D TI THE MANAGEMENT OF CHAOTIC SYSTEMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Previous papers have described the chaotic nature of nonlinear systems under some conditions: widely fluctuating and randomly appearing behavior, high sensitivity to initial conditions, and ''attraction'' to a regular trajectory in transformed space. This work has served to demonstrate for planners and policy analysts as well as physical scientists that attempting to forecast the precise future state of a chaotic system may be futile. Yet if the real world is basically nonlinear, then problems of control and management must be faced. This article is an attempt to begin to address this issue. First, we construct a simple social model that can exhibit chaos under some conditions. Then we ask what can be done by a manager to reach hypothetical goals despite the fact that the system he or she is trying to control is in chaos. We find some rules of thumb that may have general applicability to management and introduce some ideas for further study [1]. C1 FUTURES GRP INC,GLASTONBURY,CT. PENN HOSP,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19107. CR DITTO WL, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P78 GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 GORDON TJ, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P1 GORDON TJ, 1994, METHODOLOGY REPORT A MANDELBROT BB, 1977, FRACTALS FORM CHANCE YORK J, 1975, AM MATH MONTHLY, P82 NR 7 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 49 EP 62 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400004 ER PT J AU MODIS, T TI FRACTAL ASPECTS OF NATURAL GROWTH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SYSTEM AB The work presented here puts forward a fractal aspect of natural growth. The S-shaped pattern of a logistic function is analyzed in terms of several constituent logistic functions. The approach sheds light on two familiar phenomena: the undulatory evolution of growth, which gives rise to an alternation between high- and low-growth periods, and the increasingly noticeable shrinking life cycle of products. There are some economic and political implications for the European nations. A quantitative example is given for computer sales from Digital Equipment Corporation. The approach is further generalized to suggest that any growth process can be analyzed in terms of natural-growth subprocesses. Applied to human growth this analysis yields precise definitions for the timing of transitions such as babyhood to childhood, and childhood to adolescence. RP MODIS, T, DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP INT,12 AVE MORGINES,CP 176,1213 PETIT LANCY 1,GENEVA,SWITZERLAND. CR BRIGGS J, 1989, TURBULENT MIRROR GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS KAUFMANN L, 1976, CROISSANCE TAILLE PO LAFFONT A, 1985, ENCY MEDICO CHIRURGI MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P3 MARCHETTI C, 1986, FUTURES, V17, P376 MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 MONTROLL EW, INTRO QUANTITATIVE A PEITGEN HO, 1986, BEAUTY FRACTALS PRICE DS, 1963, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI WHITSON TG, 1974, ADV CYBERNETICS SYST NR 12 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 63 EP 73 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400005 ER EF