FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 PT J AU Berkhout, F TI Normative expectations in systems innovation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID ORGANIZATION; FUTURES AB This paper is concerned with the way technological expectations are generated, articulated and deployed in processes of large-scale socio-technical change. We argue that expectations are intrinsic to all social action, so that visions of the future are both ubiquitous and context-specific. Agents will act in relation to private visions of the future that are complexly related to shared or collective visions. Characteristic features and forms of visions as they relate to socio-technical regimes are identified, and the specific roles visions play in the context of actor networks engaged in processes of systems innovation are discussed. Visions are seen as 'bids' that are deployed by actors in processes of coalition-formation and coordination. Examples from a range of visions of more sustainable systems are used to illustrate the main arguments. The paper ends by discussing the normative features of socio-technical expectations. C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Berkhout, F, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, IVM, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. EM frans.berkhout@ivm.vu.nl CR 1972, BLUEPRINT SURVIVAL ADAM B, 1992, TIME SOCIAL THEORY BARTLETT FC, 1932, REMEMBERING STUDY EX BECK U, 1990, RISK SOC BERKHOUT F, 2003, SYSTEM INNOVATION TR, P48 BIJKER W, 1995, BICYCLES BAKELITES B BOJE DM, 1991, ADMIN SCI QUART, V36, P106 BOULDING K, 1956, IMAGE KNOWLEDGE LIFE, P64 BOYLE G, 1976, RADICAL TECHNOLOGY BROWN N, 2003, SCI STUD, V16, P3 BROWN N, 2003, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V15, P3 COOREN F, 2001, COMMUN THEOR, V11, P178 DAVIS JC, 1981, UTOPIA IDEAL SOC DRISCOLL M, 1994, PSYCHOL LEARNING INS DUNN S, 2001, 157 WORLDW I GEELS FW, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P867 GEELS FW, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P1257 GIDDENS A, 1998, POLITICS RISK SOC GLYNN S, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P935 GOODWIN B, 1984, UTOPIAS, P70 GREIMAS AJ, 1990, SOCIAL SCI SEMIOTIC HALLIDAY MAK, 1989, LANGUAGE CONTEXT TEX KECK O, 1981, POLICYMAKING NUCL PR KEMP R, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P175 KEMP R, 2001, INT C ENV INN SYST G KITZINGER J, 2005, SOC SCI MED, V61, P731 LAKOFF G, 1980, METAPHORS WE LIVE BY LEVITAS R, 1990, CONCEPT UTOPIA LIPPMANN W, 1977, PUBLIC OPINION LOVINS AB, 1976, FOREIGN AFF, V55, P65 MANNHEIM K, 1936, IDEOLOGY UTOPIA, P173 MICHAEL M, 2000, CONTESTED FUTURES SO MINSKY M, 1974, 306 MIT AL LAB MOKYR J, 2002, GIFTS ATHENA HIST OR ROTMANS J, 2001, FORESIGHT, V3, P15 SHOVE E, 2000, J MAT CULT, V5, P301 SMITH A, 2004, POLITICS UTOPIA INTE VANLENTE H, 1993, THESIS TWENTE U, P151 NR 38 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 299 EP 311 PG 13 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300002 ER PT J AU Brown, N Kraft, A TI Blood ties: Banking the stem cell promise SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID EMOTION; PATIENT AB This paper explores the banking of cord blood stem cells by new parents, a growing phenomenon that raises a number of questions for scholars interested in the role of expectations in innovation. In particular, we focus on the relationships between imagination and materiality, the way in which today's expectations of a future stem cell revolution have become embodied (materialised) in an ever-growing number of deposited cord blood samples. In addition, the case raises interesting questions about agency and authorship in the construction of the stem cell dream and the production of new 'blood ties'-new future-oriented parental duties and responsibilities. Here, parents are encouraged to think themselves into a,future in which their newborns are 'at risk', but also a future populated by an innovative range of regenerative medical treatments. C1 Univ York, Dept Sociol, Sci & Technol Stusies Unit, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. Univ Nottingham, ISGBiS, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Brown, N, Univ York, Dept Sociol & Anthropol, Sci & Technol Studies Unit, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. EM ngfb1@york.ac.uk CR *EUR GROUP ETH SCI, 2004, ETH ASP UMB CORD BLO *ROYAL COLL OBST G, 2001, 2 ROYAL COLL OBST GY BHARADWAJ A, 2006, BIOS RES SEM SERIES BROWN N, 1998, THESIS U LANCASTER BROWN N, 2000, CONTESTED FUTURES SO BROWN N, 2003, SCI STUD, V16, P3 BUSBY H, 2004, THESIS U NOTTINGHAM CHEAL D, 1998, GIFT EC DEUTEN JA, 2000, ORGANIZATION, V7, P69 FINKLER K, 2000, EXPERIENCING NEW GEN FRANKLIN S, 2000, HEALTH, V5, P335 FRANKLIN S, 2003, REMAKING LIFE DEATH GLUCKMAN E, 1989, NEW ENGL J MED, V321, P1174 GOOD MDV, 2003, 20 RUSS SAG FDN, P3 GOOD MJD, 1990, CULT MED PSYCHIAT, V14, P59 GUNNING J, 2004, ETHICAL ASPECTS UMBI HANSON B, 1991, DIOGENES, V156, P33 HARRE R, 1986, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION KELNER M, 1997, SOC SCI MED, V45, P203 LUTZ CA, 1990, LANGUAGE POLITICS EM MEAD M, 1969, DAEDALUS, V98, P361 NOVAS C, 2000, ECON SOC, V29, P484 NOVAS N, 2005, JUL 2005 M EXP NETW PICKERING A, 1995, MANGLE PRACTICE TIME PIXLEY J, 2002, BRIT J SOCIOL, V53, P41 PRIOR L, 2002, HEALTH RISK SOC, V4, P241 RAPP R, 2002, RELATIVE MATTERS REC SALTER B, 2004, NEW POLITICS MED SPURLOCK JC, 1994, J SOC HIST, V28, P295 TAUSSIG MT, 1980, SOCIAL SCI MED B, V14, P3 THOMPSON C, 2000, SCH AM RES ADV SEM A THOMPSON EP, 1971, PAST PRESENT, V50, P76 TITMUSS RM, 1971, GIFT RELATIONSHIP HU TUTTON R, 2004, GENETIC DATABASES SO WALDBY C, 2002, HEALTH, V6, P305 WEISS G, 2000, BODY IMAGES EMBODIME NR 36 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 313 EP 327 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300003 ER PT J AU Koch, L TI Past futures: On the conceptual history of eugenics - a social technology of the past SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Based on an introduction to the conceptual history of Reinhart Koselleck, this paper traces the historical development of 'eugenics' as a concept. This concept has been immensely influential in shaping the debate on the regulation of human genetic and reproductive technologies. At the beginning of the 20th century eugenics was cast as a social technology associated with strong, almost utopian technological expectations for the future. By the end of the century it was by contrast seen as a dangerous threat, a potential repetition of the past strongly connected to notions of compulsion, ethnic cleansing and crime. In between these two points lies a historical development, traced here through the development of the concept of eugenics as rendered in Scandinavian encyclopaedias throughout the 20th century. In this process a larger and more complex semantic framework emerges illustrating the shifting relationship between experience and expectations. C1 Univ Copenhagen, Dept Hlth Serv Res, DK-1014 Copenhagen K, Denmark. RP Koch, L, Univ Copenhagen, Dept Hlth Serv Res, Farimagsgade 5,Bldg 15,Stairway B,POB 2099, DK-1014 Copenhagen K, Denmark. EM Koch@pubhealth.ku.dk CR ANDERSEN N, 1999, DISKURSIVE ANAL, P157 BIJKER W, 1992, SHAPING TECHNOLOGY B BROWN N, 2000, CONTESTED FUTURES SO, P3 BUTTERFIELD H, 1931, WHIG INTERPRETATION DEAN M, 1994, CRITICAL EFFECTIVE H FOUCAULT M, 1972, ARCHAELOGY KNOWLEDGE GALTON F, 1883, INQUIRIES HUMAN FACU, P24 KEVLES D, 1986, NAME EUGENICS KOCH L, 2004, SCI CONTEXT, V17, P315 KOSELLECK R, 1982, ECON SOC, V11, P409 KOSELLECK R, 2004, FUTURES PAST SEMANTI, P254 MULKAY M, 1993, SOC STUD SCI, V23, P721 PAUL D, 1996, CONTROLLING HUMAN HE NR 13 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 329 EP 344 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300004 ER PT J AU Sung, JJ Hopkins, MM TI Towards a method for evaluating technological expectations: Revealing uncertainty in gene silencing technology discourse SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID DOUBLE-STRANDED-RNA; INTERFERENCE; INHIBITION; ELEGANS; EXPRESSION; ANTISENSE; KINASE AB This paper investigates the dynamics of expectations from a cognitive semantic perspective, specifically the relationship between epistemological asymmetry and uncertainty. Building on the work of several other authors since the 1980s, we propose a new framework based on frame semantics for discovering and organizing information related to expectations. When this framework is applied to two sets of expectations surrounding the applications of RNA interference, a recently discovered molecular genetic phenomenon with increasing notoriety, uncertainty seems to be correlated with what we call conceptual distance, the difference between past/present and future aspects of expectations. In essence, levelling of epistemological asymmetry through frame semantic analysis can decrease or increase uncertainty based on conceptual distance from previously fulfilled expectations. C1 Univ Sussex, Sch Humanities, Dept Linguist & English Language, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. RP Sung, JJ, Univ Sussex, Sch Humanities, Dept Linguist & English Language, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. EM j.j.sung@sussex.ac.uk CR BROWN N, 2003, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V15, P3 BROWN N, 2005, RES EXPECTATIONS MED CHEN XL, 2005, DRUG DISCOV TODAY, V10, P587 CLAYTON J, 2004, NATURE, V431, P603 COUZIN J, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P2296 COUZIN J, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P1124 CROFT W, 2004, COGNITIVE LINGUISTIC ELBASHIR SM, 2001, NATURE, V411, P494 EVANS V, 2005, COGNITIVE LINGUISTIC FILLMORE C, 1982, LINGUISTICS MORNING, P111 FILLMORE CJ, 1985, QUADERNI SEMANTICA, V6, P222 FIRE A, 1991, DEVELOPMENT, V113, P503 FIRE A, 1998, NATURE, V391, P806 GARBER K, 2004, TECHNOLOGY REV FEB, P47 GLASSMAN RH, 2004, NAT REV DRUG DISCOV, V3, P177 GUICE J, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P81 GUO S, 1995, CELL, V81, P611 GURA T, 2000, NATURE, V404, P804 HANNON GJ, 2004, NATURE, V431, P371 HARTL DL, 2002, ESSENTIAL GENETICS G HOLLON T, 2001, SIGNALS ONLINE MAGAZ HUTVAGNER G, 2002, CURR OPIN GENET DEV, V12, P225 IZANT JG, 1984, CELL, V36, P1007 KELLER E, 2000, CENTURY GENE LAKOFF G, SIMPLE FRAMING LAKOFF G, 1996, MORAL POLITICS WHAT NIGHTINGALE P, 2004, RES POLICY, V33, P1259 NOOTEBOOM B, 2000, J MANAGEMENT GOVERNA, V4, P69 OLBY R, 1994, PATH DOUBLE HELIX DI, P432 REDDY MJ, 1993, METAPHOR THOUGHT, P164 ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC SHARP PA, 2001, GENE DEV, V15, P485 SMARASKY, 2003, NATURE REV DRUG DISC, V2, P763 ZAMECNIK PC, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P280 ZAMECNIK PC, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P280 ZAMORE PD, 2000, CELL, V101, P25 NR 36 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 345 EP 359 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300005 ER PT J AU Eames, M McDowall, W Hodson, M Marvin, S TI Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID FUTURES AB This paper explores the role of the 'hydrogen economy' as a guiding vision encompassing multiple contested technological futures, value judgements and problem framings. Hydrogen visions draw upon six overarching and competing narrative themes: power and independence; community empowerment and democratisation; ecotopia; hydrogen as technical fix; inevitability and technical progress; and 'staying in the race'. In other words the hydrogen economy possesses great interpretive flexibility. This, it is argued, is the key to hydrogen's rhetorical power, allowing it to become a space in which divergent interests and agendas are promoted. Turning to issues of scale and place, the case of London is used to document the dynamics of expectations: how the open flexible guiding vision of a hydrogen economy must inevitably be re-invented and grounded in local agendas and contexts if its promise is to become realised. C1 Brunel Univ, Sch Business, BRESE, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England. Policy Studies Inst, London NW1 3SR, England. Univ Salford, Surf Ctr, Salford M5 4WT, Lancs, England. RP Eames, M, Brunel Univ, Sch Business, BRESE, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England. EM m.eames@psi.org.uk CR 2003, FINANCIAL TIMES 0927 2004, HOUSE COMMONS HANSAR *E4TECH, 2004, EL EN WOIN LEES EN S *EUR COMM, CLEAN URB TRANSP EUR, P4 *EUR COMM, 2003, HYDR EN FUEL CELLS V *MAYOR LOND, 2004, GREEN LIGHT CLEAN PO, P7 *MAYOR LOND, 2004, GREEN LIGHT CLEAN PO, P86 *US DEP EN, 2002, NAT HYDR EN ROADM BERKHOUT F, 2004, SYSTEM INNOVATION TR BERKHOUT F, 2006, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V18, P299 COSTANZA R, 2000, CONSERV ECOL, V4 DIERKES M, 1996, VISIONS TECHNOLOGY S DUNN S, 2001, 157 WORLDWATCH EAMES M, 2002, SEPT 2004 UK SHEC HY FOLEY J, 2001, H DRIVING FUTURE GAVRON N, 2002, GEN H C LOND 19 APR GROSSMAN W, 2004, TECHNOLOGICAL VISION, P186 KEMP R, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P175 LOVINS A, 1999, 10 ANN US HYDR M VIE LUTGENS FK, 2000, ESSENTIALS GEOLOGY MCDOWALL W, 2006, ENERG POLICY, V34, P1236 NAKICENOVIC N, 2004, CAN EUR POL ENV IMPL PIMLOTT B, 2002, GOVERNING LONDON, P1 RIFKIN J, 2002, HYDROGEN EC SCHWARTZ P, 2004, WIRED, P11 SCHWARZENEGGER A, 2005, GOV SCHWARZ TOUTS FI SCOTT DS, 2004, INT J HYDROGEN ENERG, V29, P225 STURKEN M, 2004, TECHNOLOGICAL VISION, P1 TIBBS H, 2004, LIFT HYDR SEM LOND I TRAVERS T, 2004, POLITICS LONDON GOVE, R12 VANLENTE H, 1993, THESIS U TWENTE ENSC VANLENTE H, 2000, CONTESTED FUTURES SO, P43 WEBER M, 2003, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE WINNER L, 2004, TECHNOLOGICAL VISION, P34 NR 34 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 361 EP 374 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300006 ER PT J AU Geels, F Raven, R TI Non-linearity and expectations in niche-development trajectories: Ups and downs in Dutch biogas development (1973-2003) SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY; SOCIOLOGY; SYSTEMS; DESIGN AB Non-linearity and changes in the direction of technological trajectories, are related to changes in cognitive rules and expectations that guide technical search and development activities. To explain such changes, the article uses the literature on niche development, which highlights interactions between learning processes, network building and expectations. A long-term case study on Dutch biogas development illustrates how these interactions explain non-linearity, but the case study also shows the importance of external regime dynamics. It is concluded that non-linearity and changes in niche expectations are related to both internal learning processes and external developments. C1 Eindhoven Univ Technol, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. RP Geels, F, Eindhoven Univ Technol, IPO 2-10,POB 513, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. EM f.w.geels@tm.tue.nl CR BIJKER WE, 1995, BICYCLES BAKELITES T BLOEMENDAAL F, 1995, HET MESTMOERAS BROWN N, 2003, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V15, P3 CLARK KB, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P235 DEUTEN JJ, 2003, COSMOPOLITANISING TE DISCO C, 1998, GETTING NEW TECHNOLO, P323 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 FLECK J, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P637 GARUD R, 2003, RES POLICY, V32, P277 GEELS FW, 2004, RES POLICY, V33, P897 GEELS FW, 2006, IN PRESS INT J SUSTA GEELS FW, 2006, SCI PUBL POLICY, V33, P265 HARD M, 1994, SOC STUD SCI, V24, P549 HOEKSMA P, 1984, BIOGASWINNING BENUTT HOOGMA R, 2000, THESIS U TWENTE HOOGMA R, 2002, EXPT SUSTAINABLE TRA JUNGINGER M, 2006, IN PRESS ENERGY POLI KEMP R, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P175 LAW J, 1992, SHAPING TECHNOLOGY B, P21 MACKENZIE D, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, P25 PAQUES J, 1982, HAALBAARHEIDSSTDUIE POELMA HR, 1987, ERVARINGEN BIOGASINS RAVEN RPJ, 2004, INNOVATION MANAGEMEN, V6, P178 RAVEN RPJ, 2005, THESIS EINDHOVEN U T RAVEN RPJ, 2006, IN PRESS RENEWABLE S SCHOT J, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P1060 VANLENTE H, 1993, PROMISING TECHNOLOGY VANLENTE H, 1998, GETTING NEW TECHNOLO, P195 VANMIERLO B, 2002, THESIS AMSTERDAM VANVELSEN AFM, 1986, BIOGAS MEST VERDER NR 30 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 375 EP 392 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300007 ER PT J AU Losch, A TI Anticipating the futures of nanotechnology: Visionary images as means of communication SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Reports of the current success and future potential of nanotechnological innovation in the field of medicine are frequently illustrated with images depicting speculative and futuristic visions. Based on a case study of visionary images of nanorobots and mini-submarines in the human body in popular science magazines, the business press and daily and weekly newspapers, this paper demonstrates that, despite their weak reference to current developments in nanomedicine, these images serve as a means of communication for the 'exchange' of expectations between the discourses of science, economy and the mass media. Through a systems-theoretical and discourse-analytical examination of the dynamics of discourse-networks surrounding these images, the investigation focuses on a certain mediality of futuristic visual images which has been rather neglected in recent Science and Technology Studies (STS) and Technology Assessment. The 'communicative spaces' suggested by visionary images enable productions of meaning for the current potential of nanotechnological innovations in and between various discourses. The dynamics of expectations within the communication processes can be reconstructed according to the variations of discourse-specific (i.e. scientific) evaluations of the depicted visions, which in turn can be described as the recursive processing of other (i.e. economic and mass medial) evaluations. C1 Tech Univ Darmstadt, Inst Soziol, FB2, Dept Soziol, D-64283 Darmstadt, Germany. RP Losch, A, Tech Univ Darmstadt, Inst Soziol, FB2, Dept Soziol, Residenzschloss, D-64283 Darmstadt, Germany. EM loesch@ifs.tu-darmstadt.de CR *BUND BILD FORSCH, 2004, NAN ZUK VIS *COUNC NAT SCI TEC, 1999, NAN SHAP WORLD AT AT BERUBE DM, 2004, IEEE TECHNOLOGY SOC, V4, P22 BROWN N, 2003, SCI STUD, V16, P3 BROWN N, 2003, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V15, P3 BUCCHI M, 2004, NEW GENET SOC, V23, P269 CALLON M, 1986, MAPPING DYNAMICS SCI CALLON M, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S, P59 CALLON M, 1999, SCI STUDIES READER, P67 COENEN C, 2004, THEORIE PRAXIS, V2, P78 CRICHTON M, 2002, FRANKFURTER ALLG, P33 DIERKES M, 1996, VISIONS TECHNOLOGY S DREXLER KE, 2001, SPEKTRUM WISSENSCHAF, V2, P65 FOGELBERG H, 2003, BRINGING VISIBLY INV FOUCAULT M, 1972, ARCHAEOLOGY KNOWLEDG FREISE A, 2002, FOCUS MONEY 0418, P22 GLIMELL H, 2004, DISCOVERING NANOSCAL, P231 GRIN J, 2000, VISION ASSESSMENT SH GRUNWALD A, 2004, EU SEM NEW TECHN FOR HAAS L, 2003, FRANKFURTER RUN 1209, P28 HARDY A, 1999, FRANKFURTER ALLG, N2 HECKL W, 2002, FRANKFURTER ALL 1211, P28 HELLSTEN I, 2002, ACTA U TEMPERENSIS, V876 HENNIG J, 2004, C IM IM NAN ENG INT JOY B, 2000, FRANKFURTER ALL 0606, P49 JOY B, 2000, WIRED, V8, P238 JUNS A, 2001, SPIEGEL 1222, P96 KAISER M, 2005, INT INT C IM NAN BIL KNOP C, 2000, FRANKFURTER ALLG, C5 KNOP C, 2003, FRANKFURTER ALL 0101, P39 KONRAD K, 2004, PRAGENDE ERWARTUNGEN KOTTHAUS J, 1999, SUDDEUTSCHE Z 0119, P10 LEYDESDORFF L, SCI COMMUNICATION, V27, P64 LOSCH A, 2001, TECHNOLOGIEN DISKURS LUHMANN N, 1995, SOCIAL SYSTEMS LUHMANN N, 2000, REALITY MASS MEDIA MAASEN S, 2000, METAPHORS DYNAMICS K MEYER M, 2004, HYLE, V10, P153 MILBURN C, 2004, NANOCULTURE IMPLICAT, P109 MULLER B, 1998, BILD WISSENSCHAFT, V4, P52 NORDMANN A, 2004, IEEE TECHNOLOGY SOC, V4, P48 PANTLE C, 2000, FOCUS, V22, P171 PASCHEN H, 2004, NANOTECHNOLOGIE FORS, P257 RIP A, 2005, READER NANOTECHNOLOG, P164 SAXL O, 2002, VENTURE CAPITAL MAGA, V3, P10 SCHROTER HG, 2002, FRANKFURTER RUN 0726 SCHUMMER J, 2004, TECHNE J SOC PHILOS, V8, P56 SELIN C, 2002, 4 TRIPL HEL C COP DE STIX G, 2001, SCI AM, V9, P32 TRAUFETTER G, 2000, SPIEGEL, V16, P168 VANLENTE H, 1993, PROMISING TECHNOLOGY VASEK T, 2000, ZEIT 1123, P17 WATERS R, 2003, FINANCIAL TIMES 1205 WUSTHOF A, 2002, ZEIT 0327 WYATT S, 2000, CONTESTED FUTURES SO, P109 NR 55 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 393 EP 409 PG 17 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300008 ER PT J AU van Merkerk, RO Robinson, DKR TI Characterizing the emergence of a technological field: Expectations, agendas and networks in Lab-on-a-chip technologies SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID CAPILLARY-ELECTROPHORESIS; MICROFLUIDIC SYSTEMS; MICROFABRICATION; FLOW AB In this paper we develop and use mapping tools to investigate emerging technological fields by studying the dynamics of expectations, agenda building and early networks. In our approach, expectations describe shared beliefs with regard to prospective entities and positions. Agendas are sets of priorities present to guide the actors in their work. The structure that arises as a result a the actions and interactions of actors is the emerging network. For emerging technologies these processes are susceptible to change and the technological paths that may arise are still easy to influence. We propose that not only looking at expectation dynamics, but also including agenda setting and networks dynamics is essential in order to successfully capture the complexities of the emergence of technological paths. A major challenge for this work lies in unveiling the socio-technical dynamics leading to path emergence. For this purpose we investigate the phenomena of irreversibilities that emerge during the ongoing interactions of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. With these aspects in mind, we will use a broadened view of expectation dynamics in order to arrive at an improved understanding of the building blocks of path emergence. We illustrate our approach with a case study of Lab-on-a-chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications. C1 Univ Utrecht, Dept Innovat & Environm Sci, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands. Univ Twente, Dept Sci Technol Hlth & Policy Studies, Enschede, Netherlands. RP van Merkerk, RO, Univ Utrecht, Dept Innovat & Environm Sci, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands. EM R.vanMerkerk@geo.uu.nl CR ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 BAYER T, 2005, CHEM ENG TECHNOL, V28, P431 BECKER H, 2000, ELECTROPHORESIS, V21, P12 BROWN N, 2005, YORK WORKSH EXP NETW CALLON M, 1986, MAPPING DYNAMICS SCI CALLON M, 1992, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, P72 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1980, SOCIAL CONTROL TECHN DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 EFFENHAUSER CS, 1997, ANAL CHEM, V69, P3451 EHRFELD W, 2005, CHEM ENG TECHNOL, V28, P318 EKSTROM B, 1990, 9116966, WO ERICKSON KA, 1993, CLIN CHEM, V39, P283 GARUD R, 2001, PATH DEPENDENCE CREA, P1 GUSTAFSSON M, 2004, ANAL CHEM, V67, P345 HAKANSSON H, 1995, DEV RELATIONSHIPS BU HARRISON DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P895 HASWELL SJ, 1997, ANALYST, V122, R1 HASWELL SJ, 2001, CHEM COMMUN, P391 JENSEN KF, 2001, CHEM ENG SCI, V56, P293 KALMHOLZ AE, 2004, LAB CHIP, V4 KAN CW, 2004, ELECTROPHORESIS, V25, P3564 KENIS PJA, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P83 KLANK H, 2002, LAB CHIP, V2, P242 LEE JN, 2003, ANAL CHEM, V75, P6544 MANZ A, 1990, SENSOR ACTUAT B-CHEM, V1, P244 MCDONALD JC, 2000, ELECTROPHORESIS, V21, P27 NELSON R, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 PAEGEL BM, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P574 RIP A, 1995, MANAGING TECHNOLOGY RIP A, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V2, P327 THORSEN T, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P580 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I VANLENTE H, 1993, PROMISING TECHNOLOGY VANLENTE H, 1998, GETTING NEW TECHNOLO, P195 VANLENTE H, 2000, CONTESTED FUTURES SO, P43 VANMERKERK RO, 2005, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V72, P1094 YOSHIDA J, 2005, CHEM ENG TECHNOL, V28, P259 NR 39 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 411 EP 428 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300009 ER PT J AU Konrad, K TI The social dynamics of expectations: The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB The article investigates three mechanisms by which expectation dynamics affect innovation processes. Empirically, it focuses on hype-disappointment cycles in electronic commerce and interactive television, drawing on results from qualitative case studies and secondary analysis. First, two specific ways by which collective, i.e. widely shared, expectations motivate and guide innovation actors are presented. These mechanisms serve as an explanation for the fact that often an impressively large number of heterogeneous actors accept and contribute to high-rising expectations. With reference to a third mechanism, it is shown that results of technological projects are subject to interpretative flexibility, and, as such, are interpreted in the light of the same expectations they are supposed to 'validate'. Sudden changes of the consideration of certain technologies as promising or not are then explained as a result of the interaction between collective expectations and expectations and outcomes at the project level. C1 Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. RP Konrad, K, Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, Uberlandstr 133, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. EM kornelia.konrad@eawag.ch CR AULETTA K, 1997, HIGHWAYMEN WARRIORS, P224 BENDER G, 2005, Z SOZIOL, V34, P170 BERGER PL, 1966, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION BLUMER H, 1969, SYMBOLIC INTERACTION BROWN N, 2003, SCI STUD, V16, P3 BROWN N, 2003, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V15, P4 CALLON M, 1986, MAPPING DYNAMICS SCI CALLON M, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION COLECCHIA A, 2000, 252 OECD DURKHEIM E, 1895, REGLES METHODE SOCIO DUTTON WH, 1987, WIRED CITIES SHAPING DUTTON WH, 1997, SOCIAL SHAPING INFOR, P134 FUCHS G, 1997, EUROPEAN PLANNING ST, V5, P619 GEELS F, 2000, CONTESTED FUTURES SO GEELS F, 2006, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V18, P375 GRIEB T, 1995, NEW SCI, V146, P34 HELLIGE HD, 1993, TECHNIKGESCHICHTE, V60, P186 HOOGMA R, 2000, EXPLOITING TECHNOLOG KONRAD K, 2004, PRAGENDE ERWARTUNGEN MEAD GH, 1934, MIND SELF SOC NELSSON R, 2000, INTERNET CO HANDEL S, P169 RIEHM WH, 1995, MULTIMEDIA MYTHEN CH RIP A, 1997, DYNAMICS INNOVATION, P11 SCHUTZ A, 1964, COLLECTED PAPERS, V2 STRAUSS R, 2000, E REALITY ELECT COMM VANLENTE H, 1993, PROMISING TECHNOLOGY, P193 VANLENTE H, 1998, GETTING NEW TECHNOLO, P225 VANMERKERK RO, 2006, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V18, P411 WEINGART P, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P261 WHEALE PR, 2003, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V15, P118 NR 30 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUL-SEP PY 2006 VL 18 IS 3-4 BP 429 EP 444 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 069EN UT ISI:000239429300010 ER PT J AU Boden, R Cox, D Nedeva, M TI The appliance of science? New public management and strategic change SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Changes in the nature of science as a social practice were fundamentally organic and endogenous in nature prior to the 1970s. Since then changes in UK public science has been policyled and the imperatives exogenous. This shift was the result of attempts to achieve strategic managed change in the sector using new public management (NPM) techniques. This paper explores the discourses that promoted the change effort and the NPM techniques and processes deployed to this end. It seeks to identify the aims and objectives of the intended strategic change and evaluates the extent to which they have been achieved. Our conclusion is that rather than a planned, strategic change process directed at improved economy, efficiency and effectiveness, what occurred was a poorly processed ideologically driven attempt to achieve political aims. C1 Univ Manchester, PREST, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. Univ Wales Inst, Sch Business, Cardiff, Wales. RP Cox, D, Univ Manchester, PREST, Harold Hankins Bldg,Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. EM Deborah.Cox@man.ac.uk CR 1980, CMND7797 1993, CM2550 1993, GUARDIAN 1129 1993, NATURE, V363, P196 1995, CM2991 1996, RES FORTNIGHT 1030 1997, NEW SCI 0208 *EFF UN, 1998, IMPR MAN GOV NEXT ST *HOUS COMM SCI TEC, 1994, 19 HC HOUS COMM SCI APPADURAI A, 2001, GLOBALIZATION BARBER B, 1990, SOCIAL STUDIES SCI BARNES B, 1974, SCI KNOWLEDGE SOCIOL BARNES B, 1977, INTERESTS GROWTH KNO BASKARAN AT, 2004, SCI TECHNOLOGY STUDI, V9, P1 BLOOR D, 1976, KNOWLEDGE SOCIAL IMA BODEN R, 2004, SCRUTINISING SCI CHA COLE J, 1975, IDEA SOCIAL STRUCTUR COLLINS HM, 1975, SOCIOLOGY, V9, P205 DUGAY P, 2000, PRAISE BUREAUCRACY DUNLEAVY P, 1994, PUBLIC MONEY MANAGE, V14, P9 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL HAGSTROM W, 1972, SOCIOLOGY SCI HAYEK FA, 1982, LAW LEGISLATION LIBE HOOD C, 1990, GOVERNANCE, V3, P205 HOOD C, 1991, PUBLIC ADMIN, V69, P3 KEALEY T, 1996, EC LAWS SCI RES LEVENE P, 1993, REV ALLOCATION MANAG MCSWEENEY B, 1994, ACCOUNTING SOCIAL I MERTON RK, 1973, SOCIOLOGY SCI THEORE MULKAY M, 1976, SOC SCI INFORM, V15, P637 MULKAY M, 1979, SCI SOCIOLOGY KNOWLE NISKANEN WA, 1991, BUREAUCRACY REPRESEN POLANYI M, 1962, MINERVA, V1, P54 POLLITT C, 1995, EVALUATION, V1, P133 PROTHEROUGH R, 2002, MANAGING BRITANNIA RHODES RAW, 1991, POLIT STUD-LONDON, V39, P533 ROSE H, 1969, SCI SOC STORER NW, 1966, SOCIAL SYSTEM SCI WILDAVSKY A, 1964, POLITICS BUDGETARY P WILKIE T, 1991, BRIT SCI POLITICS 19 NR 40 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAY PY 2006 VL 18 IS 2 BP 125 EP 141 PG 17 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 041QA UT ISI:000237469600001 ER PT J AU Ramirez, P TI The globalisation of research in the pharmaceutical industry: A case of uneven development SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; LARGE FIRMS; TECHNOLOGY; INTERNATIONALIZATION; LOCATION AB The paper discusses different conceptualisations of the term globalisation of research. From this discussion five dimensions of globalisation of research are identified. Using three different type of data, the paper goes on to examine the extent, motivations and mechanism for the globalisation of research along these five dimensions among leading European and US pharmaceutical multinational companies (MNCs). The evidence for the period 1975-1998 shows that the general process of international expansion of research activities varied significantly between leading US and European MNCs. It is also clear that the development of the process of globalisation has proceeded unevenly along the five dimensions studied. The data also show the increasing concentration of both US and European research investment in the USA. C1 Birmingham Business Sch, Birmingham B15 2TX, W Midlands, England. RP Ramirez, P, Birmingham Business Sch, Univ House,Edgbaston Pk Rd, Birmingham B15 2TX, W Midlands, England. EM p.ramirez@bham.ac.uk CR *OECD, 1992, TECHN EC KEY REL CANTWELL J, 1992, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN, P75 CANTWELL J, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P155 CANTWELL J, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P119 CHESNAIS F, 1988, STI REV, V4, P51 CHESNAIS F, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT, P265 DUNNING J, 1988, MULTINATIONAL TECHNO DUNNING J, 1997, ALLIANCE CAPITALISM GERYBADZE A, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P251 HAGEDOORN J, 1990, NEW EXPLORATIONS EC HAGEDOORN J, 1995, C EC HIGH TECHN COMP HOWELLS J, 1990, REG STUD, V24, P495 HOWELLS J, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P133 HOWELLS J, 1990, SCI PUBL POLICY, V17, P273 HOWELLS J, 1995, GLOB TECHN LESS PUBL KUEMMERLE W, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P179 MIOTTI L, 2003, RES POLICY, V32, P1481 MYTELKA LK, 1991, STRATEGIC PARTNERSHI MYTELKA LK, 2001, GLOBALISING LEARNING PATEL P, 1991, J INT BUS STUD, V22, P1 PATEL P, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P141 PATEL P, 1996, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V43, P41 PATEL P, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P145 PAVITT K, 1999, TECHNOLOGY GLOBALISA PEARCE R, 1989, INT RES DEV MULTINAT PEARCE R, 1992, GLOBALIZING RES DEV PEARCE R, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P57 PILLING D, 1999, FINANCIAL TIMES 0315 SHARP M, 1993, 5 STEEP SHARP M, 1996, 28 STEEP SHARP M, 2000, CHANGING INNOVATION TAGGART JH, 1991, R&D MANAGE, V21, P229 TARABUSI CC, 1998, INT J HEALTH SERV, V28, P67 WALSH V, 1993, IMPACT GLOBALISATION WALSH V, 1998, EAPEE C LISB 5 8 NOV NR 35 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAY PY 2006 VL 18 IS 2 BP 143 EP 167 PG 25 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 041QA UT ISI:000237469600002 ER PT J AU Chataway, J Tait, J Wield, D TI The governance of agro- and pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation: Public policy and industrial strategy SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Multinational companies in the life science sector are heavily influenced by government policies and regulations and in turn attempt to influence these actors nationally and internationally. This paper focuses on recent and on-going research, principally on the agrobiotechnology and, to a lesser extent, on the pharmaceutical industries, covering the evolution of policy and regulation in Europe, how policies are influenced by stakeholder pressures and how policy in turn influences company strategies for product development. We focus particularly on new 'governance' agendas in Europe and consider the relative impacts of enabling, constraining, discriminating and indiscriminate policies on company strategies as part of our development of an integrated approach to policy and governance. We also consider changes in external operating environments for multinational companies and compare past histories and present pressures on agro-biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. The paper argues, with evidence, that a more enabling and discriminating policy and regulatory environment can achieve public goals more efficiently and effectively, taking account of impacts on innovation, than more blunt policy instruments. This type of environment takes into account the resources and capabilities available to firms and research laboratories rather than relying on broad brush carrot and stick approaches. C1 Open Univ, ESRC Ctr Social & Econ Res Innovat Genom, Innogen, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England. Univ Edinburgh, ESRC Innogen Ctr, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Chataway, J, Open Univ, Fac Technol, ESRC Innogen Ctr, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England. EM jcchataway@open.ac.uk CR 2003, C HUM CHOIC GLOB TEC *AEBC, 2003, GM NAT PUBL DEB *CAB OFF PERF INN, 2000, WIR WHIT MAN CROSS C *CAB OFF, 1999, MOD GOV *CAP REV GROUP, 1995, EUR AGR CAS RAD REF, P10 *CTR SOC EC RES IN, INN *EUR PARL COUNC EU, 2003, OFFICIAL J EUROPEA L, V268 *PITA, 4 PITA EC TSER *RCEP, 1989, CMD720 RCEP *UK ESRC, SUPRA SEM BEST PRACT BEMELMANSVIDEC ML, 2003, CARROTS STICKS SERMO BIJMAN J, 2002, SCI PUBL POLICY, V29, P245 BONNICKSEN AL, 2002, CRAFTING CLONING POL CHATAWAY J, 1993, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V5, P345 CHATAWAY J, 2004, RES POLICY, V33, P1041 ETZKOWITZ H, 2000, 2 ACAD REVOLUTION MI ETZKOWITZ H, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P313 FAULKNER A, 2003, BRIT MED J, V326, P1159 GIDDENS A, 1998, BBC REITH LECT LOND JASANOFF S, 1994, 5 BRANCH SCI ADVISOR LYALL C, 2004, SCI PUBL POLICY, V31, P27 MANTEGAZZINI MC, 1986, ENV RISKS BIOTECHNOL MOORE NW, 1987, BIRD TIME SCI POLITI MORRIS N, 2001, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V13, P247 MURPHY J, 2005, GEOFORUM, V36, P593 PIERRE J, 2000, GOVERNANCE POLITICS SPINARDI G, 2005, NEW MODES GOVERNANCE TAIT J, 1992, FUTURES, V24, P219 TAIT J, 1999, SCI PUBL POLICY, V26, P101 TAIT J, 2001, J RISK RES, V4, P175 TAIT J, 2004, CHEM IND-LONDON 1206, P24 TAIT J, 2004, RISK ANAL SOC INTERD TAIT J, 2006, IN PRESS ENV PLANN C VONMOLTKE K, 1987, VORSORGEPRINZIP W GE WYNNE B, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI YOGENDRA S, 2004, 11 INN NR 36 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAY PY 2006 VL 18 IS 2 BP 169 EP 185 PG 17 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 041QA UT ISI:000237469600003 ER PT J AU Kostoff, RN Tshiteya, R Bowles, CA Tuunanen, T TI The structure and infrastructure of Finnish research literature SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID SCIENCE-AND-TECHNOLOGY; DATABASE TOMOGRAPHY; TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE; BIBLIOMETRICS; CITATION; ROADMAPS; TRENDS; IMPACT AB The structure and infrastructure of the Finnish research literature is determined. A representative database of technical articles was extracted from the Science Citation Index for the years 2003-2004, with each article containing at least one author with a Finnish address. Document clustering was used to identify the main technical themes (core competencies) of Finnish research. Four of the pervasive technical topics identified from the clustering (Wireless Networks and Mobile Communication, Signal Processing, Materials Science and Engineering, Chemistry) were analyzed further using bibliometrics, in order to identify the infrastructure of these research areas. Finally, the citation performance of Finnish research in the four pervasive technical topics above, and in other technical topics obtained by analysis of Abstract phrases, was compared to that of two Scandanavian countries with similar population and GDP, Norway and Denmark. C1 Off Naval Res, Arlington, VA 22217 USA. DDL OMNI Engn LLC, Mclean, VA USA. Univ Auckland, Sch Business, Auckland 1, New Zealand. RP Kostoff, RN, Off Naval Res, 875 N Randolf St, Arlington, VA 22217 USA. EM kostofr@onr.navy.mil CR *MIN ED, 2003, MIN ED PLAN ACT BUDG, P49 *STAT FINL, R D PERS HEAD COUNT BOSTIAN CW, 2000, SPACE COMMUN, V16, P97 CAMPBELL R, 1985, SOVIET SCI TECHNOLOG COHN M, 1993, NONUS DATA COMPRESSI CUTTING DR, 1992, P 15 ANN INT ACM SIG, P318 DAVIDSON RC, 1990, JAPANESE MAGNETIC CO DUNCAN LM, 1988, 4040 FOR APPL SCI AS GALUNIC C, 2004, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V25, P541 GARFIELD E, 1985, J CHEM INF COMP SCI, V25, P170 GUHA S, 1998, P ACM SIGMOD INT C M, P73 HUTUBESSY RCW, 2002, INT J TECHNOL ASSESS, V18, P690 KARYPIS G, 1999, IEEE COMPUT, V32, P68 KARYPIS G, 2006, CLUTO CLUSTERING TOO KING DA, 2004, NATURE, V430, P311 KLINGER A, 1990, SOVIET IMAGE PAT JAN KOSTOFF RN, 1997, SCIENTOMETRICS, V40, P103 KOSTOFF RN, 1998, INFORM PROCESS MANAG, V34, P69 KOSTOFF RN, 1998, SCIENTOMETRICS, V43, P27 KOSTOFF RN, 1999, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V50, P427 KOSTOFF RN, 2000, J AIRCRAFT, V37, P727 KOSTOFF RN, 2000, J CHEM INF COMP SCI, V40, P19 KOSTOFF RN, 2001, ANAL CHEM, V73, P370 KOSTOFF RN, 2001, J AM SOC INF SCI TEC, V52, P1148 KOSTOFF RN, 2002, J POWER SOURCES, V110, P163 KOSTOFF RN, 2003, ENCY LIB INFORMATION, V4, P2789 KOSTOFF RN, 2004, FRACTALS, V12, P1 KOSTOFF RN, 2004, INT J BIFURCAT CHAOS, V14, P61 KOSTOFF RN, 2004, J AM SOC MASS SPECTR, V15, P281 KOSTOFF RN, 2005, ADA442890 DTIC KOSTOFF RN, 2005, CORTEX, V41, P103 KOSTOFF RN, 2005, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V72, P798 LANZEROTTI LJ, 1986, FASACTAR3060 LENEMAN B, 1984, REV ETUD COMP EST-O, V15, P75 MACROBERTS MH, 1996, SCIENTOMETRICS, V36, P435 MCINTIRE LV, 2003, TISSUE ENG, V9, P3 MOONEY B, 1996, MAR TECHNOL SOC J, V30, P71 PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P79 RANTANEN J, 2004, OPETUSMINISTERION TY, P204 RASMUSSEN E, 1992, INFORMATION RETRIEVA SPENCER WJ, 1989, CHINESE MICROELECTRO STARES P, 1985, DAEDALUS, V114, P127 STEINBACH M, 2000, 00034 U MINN DEP COM WILLETT P, 1988, INFORMATION PROCESSI, V24, P577 ZAMIR O, 1998, P 21 ANN INT ACM SIG, P46 ZHAO Y, 2004, MACH LEARN, V55, P311 NR 46 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAY PY 2006 VL 18 IS 2 BP 187 EP 220 PG 34 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 041QA UT ISI:000237469600004 ER PT J AU Trumbach, CC TI Addressing the information needs of technology managers: Making derived information usable SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION AB Technology managers are faced with identifying emerging technologies with the greatest economic potential. Text mining of technical information sources has great potential for structuring and analyzing the vast amounts of information that is available today. There are tools available capable of analyzing patents and publication databases for trends, identifying emerging activity, and monitoring competitors. However, a disconnect between managers' information needs and the analysts' information provides a significant challenge. Additionally, technology managers are not accustomed to processing derived knowledge obtained through text mining. Thus, analysts must present information to managers so that they can easily and accurately interpret it. This paper investigates an approach that presents derived information in the context of stated information needs by technology managers. Those information needs are assessed via survey, applied to a sample technology record set, and evaluated according to stated criteria. C1 Univ New Orleans, Dept Management, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. RP Trumbach, CC, Univ New Orleans, Dept Management, 2000 Lakeshore Dr, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. EM ctrumbac@uno.edu CR *DIAL, THOMS BUS US ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 ASHTON WB, 1997, KEEPING ABREAST SCI BREEDING B, 2000, COMPETITIVE INTELLIG, V11, P12 BREITZMAN AF, 2002, J INFORM SCI, V28, P187 CUNNINGHAM S, 1998, INFORMATION REVOLUTI, P149 DOMINGUE D, 2004, COMMUNICATION FEB EYSENBACH G, 2002, BRIT MED J, V324, P7337 HEARST M, 1999, P ACL 99 37 ANN M AS HERRING JP, 1998, CREATING SUCCESSFUL KOSTOFF RN, 2001, ANAL CHEM, V73, P370 NASUKAWA T, 2001, IBM SYST J, V40, P967 ORTEGO J, 2004, COMMUNICATION FEB PORTER AL, WHAT IS TOA PORTER AL, 2000, WHY DONT TECHNOLOGY PORTER AL, 2003, AC UNU MILLENNIUM PR PORTER AL, 2004, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V47, P16 STUDT T, 2002, R&D MAG, V44, F3 SWANSON DR, 1988, PERSPECT BIOL MED, V31, P526 TJADEN GS, 1998, INFORMATION REVOLUTI, P3 WATTS RJ, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V56, P25 WATTS RJ, 1999, INF KNOWL SYST MANAG, V1, P45 WATTS RJ, 2000, IDENTIFYING UNIQUE I NR 23 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAY PY 2006 VL 18 IS 2 BP 221 EP 243 PG 23 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 041QA UT ISI:000237469600005 ER PT J AU Schoenmakers, W Duysters, G TI Learning in strategic technology alliances SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INTERNATIONAL JOINT VENTURES; ABSORPTIVE-CAPACITY; COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE; FIRMS LEARN; INNOVATION; ACQUISITIONS; PERFORMANCE; NETWORKS; MANAGEMENT; COLLABORATION AB In this paper we examine the influence of strategic technology alliances on organisational learning. From an empirical perspective we examine the pre- and post-alliance knowledge bases of allying firms. We find that the pre- alliance knowledge base overlap of the allying firms has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the degree of learning taking place in the alliance. Alliances established for the purpose of learning also show a significantly greater increase in knowledge base overlap for the allying firms than for non-learning alliance or non-allying firms. This shows the particular importance of learning alliances as a vehicle for organisational learning and competence development. Contrary to what we expected we found that weak ties are more important than strong ties in organisational learning within strategic alliances. C1 Hasselt Univ, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. UNU, MERIT, Maastricht, Netherlands. Eindhoven Univ Technol, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. RP Schoenmakers, W, Hasselt Univ, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAY PY 2006 VL 18 IS 2 BP 245 EP 264 PG 20 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 041QA UT ISI:000237469600006 ER PT J AU Oshri, I Weeber, C TI Cooperation and competition standards-setting activities in the digitization era: The case of wireless information devices SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Standards-setting activities were traditionally characterized by either pure competition or cooperation activities. Recent studies, however, have proposed that a shift in standards-setting activities is taking place in which a hybrid mode is observed, and that digital convergence is one driving force behind this shift. Little is known about the nature of this hybrid mode and the empirical evidence that has supported such propositions is still weak. To address this gap, this paper develops a framework in which five attributes are examined to determine the level of cooperative and competitive standards-setting activities, during the development and the sponsoring stages, in the Wireless Information Devices Operating System (WID-OS) battle. The empirical evidence drawn from this standardization battle suggests that digital convergence drives firms to pursue cooperative and competitive standards-setting activities throughout the battle. We conclude by exploring future research and practical implications. C1 Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam Sch Management, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. RP Oshri, I, Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam Sch Management, F2-32,POB 1738,Oudlaan 50, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. EM ioshri@fbk.eur.nl CR BUSINESS WEEK MAGAZI 2004, CHANNELMINDS 0323 2004, SMALL DEVICE STUDY S 2005, TOYOTA OPEN GM HYBRI *WAP FOR, 2000, WIR APPL PROT WHIT P AXELROD R, 1995, MANAGE SCI, V41, P1493 BESEN SM, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P117 BORES C, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL CONVER BRANDENBURGER AM, 1995, HARVARD BUS REV, V73, P57 BREWIN B, 2002, COMPUTERWORLD 1202, P8 CHESBROUGH HW, 1996, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P65 COLLIS DJ, 1996, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V38, P159 CONNOLLY PJ, 2002, INFOWORLD 1118, P36 DAVID PA, 1990, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V1, P3 DAVID PA, 1994, STANDARDISATION POLI, P2 DELAAT PB, 1999, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V11, P159 DUNN D, 2001, EBN 0702 FARRELL J, 1988, RAND J ECON, V19, P235 GABEL HL, 1991, COMPETITIVE STRATEGI GREENSTEIN S, 1997, COMPETING AGE DIGITA, P201 HILSON G, 2002, COMPUTING CANAD 0315 KONRAD R, 2001, CNET 1102 LAHEY L, 2002, COMPUTING CANAD 1115, P22 LIVINGSTON B, 2002, INFOWORLD 0401, P20 ORT E, 2000, QUESTIONS ANSWERS JA ROONEY P, 2002, CRN 0311, P47 SCHICK S, 2002, COMPUTING CANAD 0215, P8 SCHWARTZ E, 2002, INFOWORLD 0408, P30 SCHWARTZ E, 2002, INFOWORLD 1118, P35 SHAPIRO C, 1999, CALIF MANAGE REV, V41, P8 VANWEGBERG M, 1996, MERGERS ALLIANCES MU VERCOULEN F, 1998, STANDARD SELECTION M WIELAND K, 2002, TELECOMMUNICATIO DEC, P10 YIN R, 1989, CASE STUDY RES DESIG YOFFIE DB, 1996, CALIF MANAGE REV, V38, P31 NR 35 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAY PY 2006 VL 18 IS 2 BP 265 EP 283 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 041QA UT ISI:000237469600007 ER PT J AU Binks, M Starkey, K Mahon, CL TI Entrepreneurship education and the business school SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB This paper examines entrepreneurship education in the light of debates about the future of the business school, the nature of the MBA, with which management education is generally synonymous, and the links that need to be created between teaching and research. There is increasing focus on the general utility of entrepreneurial skills and aptitudes (i.e. creativity, independent thinking, opportunity recognition and exploitation, etc.), and it is our contention that entrepreneurship education offers an innovative new paradigm for business school education that answers some of the challenges that are currently levelled against the MBA. Given the breadth of relevance in terms of the issues around Entrepreneurship Education and future pedagogical development in Business Schools, this paper is also well placed as a vehicle to introduce the rest of the coverage in this special issue of TASM. This paper therefore also summarises the papers presented in terms of their contribution to our understanding of the role of entrepreneurship and innovation in higher education. All suggest the need for the broadening of human and social capital, while some propose a fundamental shift in the delivery of professional education. C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Business, Inst Enterprise & Innovat, Nottingham NG8 1BB, England. RP Binks, M, Univ Nottingham, Sch Business, Inst Enterprise & Innovat, Jubilee Campus,Wollaton Rd, Nottingham NG8 1BB, England. EM martin.binks@nottingham.ac.uk CR *COSEPUP, 1995, RESH GRAD ED SCI ENG *DFEE, 2001, NAT SKILLS AG OPP SK *TIGER PROGR, 2006, TECHN AN STRAT MAN, V18, P57 AFUAH A, 2003, INNOVATION MANAGEMEN AITKEN HGJ, 1963, EXPLORATIONS ENTREPR, V1, P3 ALDRICH D, 1999, MASTERING DIGITAL MA ARMSTRONG JS, 1995, J MARKETING, V59, P101 BAILEY J, 1996, BUSINESS STRATEGY RE, V7, P7 BEDNARZIK RW, 2000, MONTHLY LABOR RE JUL, P3 BINKS M, 1990, ENTREPRENEURSHIP EC BINKS, 2006, TECHNOLOGY ANAL STRA, V18, P1 BOK D, 1990, U FUTURE AM CASSON MC, 1982, ENTREPRENEUR EC THEO CHAILLE C, 2003, YOUNG CHILD SCI CHAMARD J, 1989, J SMALL BUSINESS ENT, V6, P23 CHARNEY A, 2000, IMPACT ENTREPRENEURS DAVIDSSON P, 2001, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V25, P5 DEFAOITE D, 2003, ED TRAINING, V45, P430 DELANTY G, 2001, CHALLENGING KNOWLEDG FENN D, 2000, INC MAGAZINE 0516 GORMAN G, 1997, INT SMALL BUS J, V15, P56 HAMBRICK D, 1993, ACAD MANAGE REV, V19, P11 HARRIS SE, 1970, EC HARVARD HUBER MT, 2004, INTEGRATIVE LEARNING KAMII C, 2000, YOUNG CHILDREN REINV KAO J, 1989, ENTREPRENEURSHIP CRE KOURILSKY ML, 1980, J CREATIVE BEHAV, V14, P175 KOURILSKY ML, 1998, J BUS VENTURING, V13, P77 KRUEGER N, 1994, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V18, P91 LAMBERT R, 2003, LAMBERT REV BUSINESS LEAVITT HJ, 1989, CALIF MANAGE REV, V31, P38 LOBLER H, 2006, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V18, P19 LUMSDAINE E, 2005, ENTREPRENEURSHIP CRE MARKMAN GD, 2004, J TECHNOLOGY TRANSFE, V29, P291 MINNITI M, 2001, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V25, P5 MINTZBERG H, 2002, ACAD MANAGEMENT LEAR, V1, P64 MOSEY, 2006, TECHNOLOGY ANAL STRA, V18, P71 NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL PFEFFER J, 2001, ACAD MANAGEMENT LEAR, V1, P78 POTTER J, 1987, DISCOURSE SOCIAL PSY RAE D, 2006, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V18, P39 RICH BR, 1994, SKUNK WORKS SAY JB, 1964, TREATISE POLITICAL E SCHUMPTER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SHAPIRO BL, 1994, WHAT CHILDREN BRING SLAUGHTER S, 1997, ACAD CAPITALISM POLI SPINOSA C, 1997, ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEM STARKEY K, 2001, BRIT J MANAGE, V12, P3 VESPER KH, 1985, ENTREPRENEURSHIP ED VESPER KH, 1993, ENTREPRENEURSHIP ED VONFORSTER H, 1971, I SCI, V1, P31 VONGLASERSFELD E, 1995, RADICAL CONSTRUCTIVI VONGLASERSFELD E, 2000, RADICAL CONSTRUCTIVI WAESCHE N, 2003, INTERNET ENTREPRENEU WALSHOK M, 1995, KNOWLEDGE BOUNDARIES WESTHEAD P, 2006, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V18, P93 WRIGHT M, 2004, J TECHNOLOGY TRANSFE, V29, P235 ZEITLYN M, 2002, BUSINESS INTERFACE T NR 58 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD FEB PY 2006 VL 18 IS 1 BP 1 EP 18 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 013SX UT ISI:000235430900001 ER PT J AU Lobler, H TI Learning entrepreneurship from a constructivist perspective SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID EDUCATION AB The aim of this article is to present a learning theory (constructivist theory) that supports and explains a lot of the requested changes in entrepreneurship education. It also explains how entrepreneurs learn and serves as a basis for designing entrepreneurship programs. If we look at the 'skills' and competencies of entrepreneurs from a constructivist's perspective we find most of them by observing children under the age of five or six: they are motivated to learn, they are interested in a variety of different topics, they ask excellent questions, they try many things to get insights, they are creative, they are impatient. In short, they create and govern their own learning process, which is open for any content, style, goal, experience, etc., and allows them to take every opportunity to answer the question in concern. In this sense it is similar to the entrepreneurial process where the entrepreneur tries everything and is ready to learn what is needed to be successful. C1 Univ Leipzig, Fac Business Adm & Econ, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany. RP Lobler, H, Univ Leipzig, Fac Business Adm & Econ, Marschnerstr 31, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany. EM loebler@wifa.uni-leipzig.de CR ALBERTI FG, 2005, J ENTREPRENEURSHIP E, V2, P453 CANTWELL RH, 2001, ON LINE J INFORMATIO CHAMARD J, 1989, J SMALL BUSINESS ENT, V6, P23 FALTIN G, 1999, ADULT LEARNING FUTUR FALTIN G, 2001, J INT BUSINESS EC, V2, P123 FIET JO, 2000, J BUSINESS VENTURING, V16, P1 FIET JO, 2001, J BUS VENTURING, V16, P101 FRANK HG, 1971, KYBERNETISCHE GRUNDL FURTNERKALLMUNZ.M, 2002, FREIZEIT LEBEN LERNE GORMAN G, 1997, INT SMALL BUS J, V15, P56 HOSSL A, 2002, FREIZEIT LEBEN LERNE, P218 KAMII C, 2000, YOUNG CHILDREN REINV, P46 KATZ JA, 2003, J BUS VENTURING, V18, P283 KOURILSKY ML, 1980, J CREATIVE BEHAV, V14, P175 KOURILSKY ML, 1998, J BUS VENTURING, V13, P77 KRUEGER N, 1994, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V18, P91 KURATKO DF, ENTREPRENEURSHIP ED KURATKO DF, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P577 KURATKO DF, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P590 LAUKKANEN M, 2000, ENTREP REGION DEV, V12, P25 LAUKKANEN M, 2000, ENTREP REGION DEV, V12, P28 LIPSKI J, 2002, ONLINE FAMILIENHANDB, P123 LOBLER H, IN PRESS P 2005 INT LOBLER H, 1984, JB ABSATZ VERBRAUCHS, V30, P68 LORSBACH A, 1992, MONOGRAPH NARST, V5 MCCORMACK MH, 1984, WHAT THEY DONT TEACH MEYER GD, 2001, USABE COLEMAN WHITE PARKER S, 2005, IN PRESS J BUSINESS PIAGET J, 1969, PSYCHOL CHILD RASHEED HS, 2003, DEV ENTREPRENEURIAL RONSTADT R, 1990, ENTREPRENEURSHIP ED, P69 SHAPIRO BL, 1994, WHAT CHILDREN BRING SOLOMON GT, 2002, INT J ENTREPRENEURSH, V1, P1 STEVENSON HH, 2000, ENTREPRENEURSHIP HAS, P6 VONFORSTER H, 1971, I SCI, V1, P31 VONGLASERSFELD E, 1983, P 5 ANN M N AM CHAPT, P41 VONGLASERSFELD E, 1995, RADICAL CONSTRUCTIVI VONGLASERSFELD E, 2000, RADICAL CONSTRUCTIVI NR 38 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD FEB PY 2006 VL 18 IS 1 BP 19 EP 38 PG 20 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 013SX UT ISI:000235430900002 ER PT J AU Rae, D TI Entrepreneurial learning: A conceptual framework for technology- based enterprise SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Entrepreneurial learning has emerged as an important yet insufficiently understood area of enquiry. This paper develops new understanding in this area from a social constructionist perspective by using narratives elicited from technology-based entrepreneurs to explore their learning experiences and behaviours. The unit of analysis is the emergent entrepreneur in the technology-based enterprise. The paper develops a framework for analysing entrepreneurial learning through in-depth analysis of entrepreneurial experiences by using discourse analysis based on a social learning perspective. This conceptual framework includes three major themes of personal and social emergence, contextual learning and the negotiated enterprise, and 11 related sub-themes. These demonstrate connections between the emergence of entrepreneurial identity, learning as a social and contextual process, opportunity recognition, and venture formation as a negotiated activity. C1 Univ Derby, Derbyshire Business Sch, Ctr Entrepreneurial Management, Derby DE22 1GB, England. RP Rae, D, Univ Derby, Derbyshire Business Sch, Ctr Entrepreneurial Management, Kedleston Rd, Derby DE22 1GB, England. EM d.rae@derby.ac.uk CR *DEP TRAD IND, 2003, INN REP COMP GLOB EC ABRAMS D, 1990, SOCIAL IDENTITY THEO ALDRICH H, 1986, ART SCI ENTREPRENEUR, P3 BANDURA A, 1986, SOCIAL FDN THOUGHT A BINKS M, 1990, ENTREPRENEURSHIP EC BRUNER J, 1986, ACTUAL MINDS POSSIBL COPE J, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P573 CORBETT AC, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P473 DAVIDSSON P, 2001, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V25, P5 DEAKINS D, 1998, LEARNING ORG, V5, P144 DEAKINS D, 2000, ENTREPRENEURSHIP SMA DEVINS D, 2002, J SMALL BUSINESS ENT, V9, P111 DEWEY J, 1991, COLLECTED WORKS J DE DUTTA DK, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P425 DYER WG, ENTREPRENEURSHIP THE, V19, P7 FESTINGER L, 1957, THEORY COGNITIVE DIS FLETCHER D, 2002, UNDERSTANDING SMALL GERGEN K, 1999, INVITATION SOCIAL CO GIBB A, 1993, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V11, P11 GIBB A, 1996, INT SMALL BUS J, V15, P13 GIBB A, 2001, C ENTR FOR NAPL 21 2 GIBB AA, 1996, BRIT J MANAGE, V7, P309 GORMAN G, 1997, INT SMALL BUS J, V15, P56 GREGOIRE D, 2001, BABS KAUFM ENTR RES GREINER L, 1972, HARVARD BUSINESS REV, V7 HAMILTON E, 2004, I SMALL BUS AFF NAT HARRE R, 1989, LANGUAGE GAMES TEXTS HARRISON R, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P351 HARTSHORN C, 2002, CAMBR MIT I INN LEAR HILL J, 1999, INT J ENTREPRENEURIA, V5, P5 HJORTH S, 2004, NARRATIVE DISCURSIVE JACK SL, 1999, INT J ENTRERENEURIAL, V5, P110 KIRZNER I, 1973, COMPETITION ENTREPRE KOLB D, 1984, EXPT LEARNING EXPERI LUMPKIN GT, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P451 MINNITI M, 2001, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V25, P5 MITCHELL RK, 2002, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V27, P93 MUMFORD A, 1995, EFFECTIVE LEARNING PITT M, 1998, ORGAN STUD, V19, P387 POLITIS D, 2005, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V29, P399 POLKINGHOREN D, 1988, NARRATIVE KNOWING HU POTTER J, 1987, DISCOURSE SOCIAL PSY RAE D, 2001, SMALL BUSINESS ENTER, V8, P150 RAE D, 2004, J SMALL BUSINESS ENT, V11, P195 REUBER RA, 1993, FRONTIERS ENTREPRENE, P234 SCHUMPETER J, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SCHWANDT T, 1998, LANDSCAPE QUALITATIV SHANE S, 2000, ACAD MANAGE REV, V25, P217 SHEPHERD DA, 2002, ENTREP THEORY PRACT, V27, P167 SHNOTTER J, 1995, MANAGEMENT ORG RELAT SPINOSA C, 1997, ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEM STEVENSON HH, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V11, P17 WATSON TJ, 1994, SEARCH MANAGEMENT CU WATSON TJ, 1999, EMERGENT MANAGER WATSON TJ, 2001, INT ENCY SOCIAL BEHA WEICK K, 1995, SENSEMAKING ORG WENGER E, 1998, COMMUNITIES PRACTICE YOUNG JE, 1997, J ENTERPRISING CULTU, V5, P223 NR 58 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD FEB PY 2006 VL 18 IS 1 BP 39 EP 56 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 013SX UT ISI:000235430900003 ER PT J AU Sager, B Fernandez, MG Thursby, M TI Implications of a multi-disciplinary educational and research environment: Perspectives of future business, law, science, and engineering professionals in the technological innovation: Generating economic results (TI : GER (R)) program SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Functioning well in a global, technology-driven, multi-disciplinary environment necessitates a more robust educational paradigm, especially in science and engineering. For a scientific education to be complete, it can no longer be restricted solely to technical areas. Similarly, law and business students will encounter a slew of technologies throughout the course of their careers. They will be required to comprehend the intricacies and corresponding implications of these technologies in order to impart their perspectives effectively and have an impact. In an effort to address this widely recognized need, a number of multi-disciplinary education and innovation programs have recently surfaced. Although several of these have been documented in the literature, the experiences of participants and the manner in which these will influence their future career plans as well as personal goals are not usually taken into account. Our focus in this paper is to shed light on this 'end effect' of being exposed to a multidisciplinary education by stressing the importance of understanding social, economic, and legal aspects of science and engineering within the context of a scientific graduate-level education. Specifically, the authors take a closer look at the TI:GER((R) 1)(Technological Innovation: Generating Economic Results) program. Based on their experiences, the authors present their learning and insight on multi-disciplinary education in a mixed technical and professional degree setting. C1 Georgia Inst Technol, Coll Management, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Atlanta, GA USA. Georgia Inst Technol, George W Woodruff Sch Mech Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP Thursby, M, Georgia Inst Technol, Coll Management, 800 w Peachtree St,NW, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. EM marie.thursby@mgt.gatech.edu CR *COSEPUP, 1995, RESH GRAD ED SCI ENG *GEORG I TECHN SCH, 2004, TECHN INN GEN EC RES *SYR U, 2004, GRAD DEGR PROGR SYR AUERBACH J, 2004, TIGER PROGRAM ASSESS COHEN WM, 1998, FUTURE RES U FIET JO, 2000, J BUSINESS VENTURING, V16, P1 FIET JO, 2000, J BUSINESS VENTURING, V16, P101 FLEMING L, 2005, INFOVISION A TECHNOL FLEMING L, 2005, INFOVISION B TIGER P THURSBY JG, 2003, SCI 0822, P1052 THURSBY MC, 2001, INTEGRATED APPROACH THURSBY MC, 2005, J ENTREPRENEURSHIP T, P219 NR 12 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD FEB PY 2006 VL 18 IS 1 BP 57 EP 69 PG 13 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 013SX UT ISI:000235430900004 ER PT J AU Mosey, S Lockett, A Westhead, P TI Creating network bridges for university technology transfer: The medici fellowship programme SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID BIOTECHNOLOGY; ENTREPRENEURSHIP; SCIENTISTS; KNOWLEDGE; LIFE AB This paper evaluates a fellowship scheme aiming to overcome attitudinal and operational barriers towards university technology transfer. We propose barriers exist because of the focus of many academics exclusively within a peer review research network. We explore the case of the Medici Fellowship programme that was implemented in biomedical departments across five universities located in the midlands of England. Our evidence suggests that such fellowship programmes, through the retraining of academics, may have a positive impact on the commercialisation of research. In particular, the fellows, through the enhancement of their social and human capital, are able to act as agents of attitudinal change in their host departments and are seen to build bridges into external business networks that can provide early stage funding, market and legal information and help identify potential customers for nascent academic entrepreneurs. C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Business, Nottingham NG8 1BB, England. RP Mosey, S, Univ Nottingham, Sch Business, Jubilee Campus, Nottingham NG8 1BB, England. EM simon.mosey@nottingham.ac.uk CR ALDER P, 2002, ACAD MANAGE REV, V27, P17 AMIT R, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V22, P493 AUDRETSCH DB, 2003, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V15, P273 BURT R, 1992, STRUCTURAL HOLES CLARK BR, 1998, CREATING ENTREPRENEU CLUCAS E, 2004, STRUCTURE TRAINING C DAVIDSSON P, 2002, J ENTREPRENEURSHIP E, V1, P5 DELMAR F, 2004, J BUS VENTURING, V19, P385 EISENHARDT KM, 1989, ACAD MANAGE REV, V14, P532 GIBB A, 2002, INT J MANAG REV, V4, P233 GLASER J, 1967, DISCOVERY GROUNDED T GRANOVETTER MS, 1973, AM J SOCIOL, V78, P1360 HOANG H, 2003, J BUS VENTURING, V18, P165 LAMBERT R, 2003, LAMBERT REV BUSINESS LOUIS KS, 1989, ADMIN SCI QUART, V34, P110 MARKMAN GD, 2004, J TECHNOLOGY TRANSFE, P291 MILES MB, 1984, QUALITATIVE DATA ANA MURRAY F, 2004, RES POLICY, V33, P643 MYERS SC, 1984, J FINANC, V39, P575 OLIVER AL, 2004, RES POLICY, V33, P583 POWELL W, 2002, REG STUD, V396, P291 SCHOONHOVEN CB, 2005, BLACKWELL ENCY MANAG, P171 SLAUGHTER S, 1997, ACAD CAPITALISM POLI STRAUSS A, 1990, BASICS QUALITATIVE R WENGER E, 1998, COMMUNITIES PRACTICE WRIGHT M, 2003, SURVEY U COMMERCIALI WRIGHT W, 2004, J TECHNOLOGY TRANSFE, V29, P235 YIN J, 1993, CASE STUDY RES ZEITLYN M, 2002, BUSINESS INTERFACE T ZUCKER LG, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P138 NR 30 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD FEB PY 2006 VL 18 IS 1 BP 71 EP 91 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 013SX UT ISI:000235430900005 ER PT J AU Westhead, P Matlay, H TI Skills associated with employment positions in SMEs and favourable attitudes toward self-employment: Longitudinal evidence from students who participated in the shell technology enterprise programme SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID VENTURE PERFORMANCE; EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS; TRAINING-PROGRAMS; HIGHER-EDUCATION; UNITED-STATES; BRITAIN; YOUTH; ENTREPRENEURSHIP; UNEMPLOYMENT; KNOWLEDGE AB Successive British governments have encouraged young people to accumulate skills and attributes that would enable them to obtain jobs in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as well as develop careers in enterprise. This article evaluates the contribution of the 1994 Shell Technology Enterprise Programme (STEP) that subsidised the placement of students in SMEs. In 1997, responses were gathered from STEP students as well as a control group of non-STEP students. The human capital profiles of students reporting full-time employment positions in smaller private firms as well as those reporting a favourable attitude towards self-employment or business ownership were ascertained. Participation in the programme was not found to be significantly associated with the selected outcomes. Skills and attributes honed by the programme were, however, significantly associated with the selected outcomes. Policy-makers need to appreciate that the skills and attributes reported by students associated with the propensity to obtain employment positions in smaller private firms are not the same as those associated with the propensity to report a favourable attitude towards self-employment or business ownership. C1 Univ Warwick, Warwick Business Sch, CSME, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. Univ Cent England, Sch Business, Birmingham, W Midlands, England. RP Westhead, P, Univ Warwick, Warwick Business Sch, CSME, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD FEB PY 2006 VL 18 IS 1 BP 93 EP 124 PG 32 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 013SX UT ISI:000235430900006 ER PT J AU Dyerson, R Pilkington, A TI Gales of creative destruction and the opportunistic incumbent: The case of electric vehicles in California SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; TECHNOLOGIES; PERSPECTIVE; STRATEGY AB This paper explores the introduction of electric vehicles in response to Californian regulatory pressures as an example of a disruptive technology. The central thesis is that this disruption may open the automobile market to new entrants but only if they collaborate with incumbent automobile manufacturers. This appears to support Schumpeter's argument that large incumbent firms possess innovation advantages over the small entrepreneurial entrant. However, these innovatory advantages lie in the downstream complementary assets required for success in the automobile market. C1 Univ London Royal Holloway & Bedford New Coll, Sch Management, Egham TW20 0EX, Surrey, England. RP Dyerson, R, Univ London Royal Holloway & Bedford New Coll, Sch Management, Egham TW20 0EX, Surrey, England. EM r.dyerson@rhul.ac.uk CR *CA EN COMM, 1999, ABCS AFVS GUID ALT F ADCOCK PL, 1995, ELECT HYBRID VEHICLE, V95, P232 ARNOLD U, 1997, PURCHASING PROFESSIO, P79 ARNOLD U, 2000, EUROPEAN J PURCHASIN, V6, P23 BOWER JL, 1995, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P43 BRANDENBERGER AM, 1996, COOPETITION CALLON M, 1989, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION, P83 CHESBROUGH HW, 1996, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P65 CHRISTENSEN C, 1997, INNOVATORS DILEMMA COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 COTE M, 1994, 12 EL VEH S EV12 DEC, P272 COUP D, 1999, CORPORATE ENV STRATE, V6, P258 CROOM S, 2000, EUROPEAN J PURCHASIN, V6, P76 DAY GS, 2000, CALIF MANAGE REV, V42, P8 DAY GS, 2000, CALIF MANAGE REV, V42, P8 DENEUFVILLE R, 1996, TECHNOLOGY REV JAN, P30 DOSI G, 1984, TECHNICAL CHANGE IND EVERS AA, 2003, INT J HYDROGEN ENERG, V28, P725 FOSTER R, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS FREEMAN C, 1982, EC IND INNOVATION FROUD J, 1999, GLOBAL COMPETITION C, V2 GOULDSON A, 1993, BUSINESS STRATEGY EN, V2, P12 GRUDKOWSKI T, 1995, ELECT HYBRID VEHICEL, P131 HANDFIELD RB, 1999, CALIF MANAGE REV, V42, P59 HARLAND CM, 1999, INT J OPER PROD MAN, V19, P650 HOBDAY M, 1998, RES POLICY, V26, P689 KAY J, 1993, FDN CORPORATE SUCCES KIRSCH DA, 2000, ELECT CAR BURDEN HIS MACKENZIE J, 1994, KEYS CAR ELECT HYDRO MCGRATH RN, 1997, TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMEN, V3, P145 MOWERY D, 1989, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E MURRAY J, 2000, REPORT ALTERNATIVE F NARANG S, 1995, ELECT HYBRID VEHICLE, P137 PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PENROSE E, 1959, THEORY GROWTH FIRM, P84 PILKINGTON A, 1996, TRANSFORMING ROVER R PILKINGTON A, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V41, P31 RENZI S, 2000, CORPORATE ENV STRATE, V7, P38 ROTHWELL R, 1988, J MARKETING MANAGEME, V3, P372 SCHIFFER MB, 1994, TAKING CHARGE ELECT SCHUMPETER JA, 1942, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SCOTT AJ, 1993, ACCESS TRANSPORTATIO, V3, P8 SHNAYERSON M, 1996, CAR COULD INSIDE STO SLIFKO J, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P933 SPENDER JC, 1989, IND RECIPES SPERLING D, 1988, NEW TRANSPORTATION F SUEN WW, 2001, PICMET 01 TEECE DJ, 1991, UNPUB DYNAMIC CAPABI TOYOTA S, 1996, ELECTR TIMES, V4, P1 TUSHMAN M, 1986, ADM SCI Q, V31, P436 UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I WEBER M, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P545 NR 52 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2005 VL 17 IS 4 BP 391 EP 408 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 994ZY UT ISI:000234070900001 ER PT J AU Dahlander, L McKelvey, M TI The occurrence and spatial distribution of collaboration: Biotech firms in Gothenburg, Sweden SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; NETWORKS; KNOWLEDGE; LINKAGES; INDUSTRY; LOCUS AB This paper deals with the occurrence and spatial distribution of collaborations within biotechnology. By starting from a total population of 45 firms involved in biotech R&D, we shed light on how many collaborate with ( 1) other firms, ( 2) venture capitalists, and ( 3) actors in science and technology and whether these partners can be found in the region, nation or in the rest of the world. Possible explanations for the different patterns are drawn out. C1 Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Technol Management & Econ, SE-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. RP Dahlander, L, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Technol Management & Econ, Vasa Hus 2, SE-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. EM linus.dahlander@chalmers.se CR *OECD, 2002, STAT DEF BIOT ALM H, 2000, 39 CRIC ARORA A, 1990, J IND ECON, V38, P361 AUDRETSCH DB, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P641 BATHELT H, 2002, 0212 DRUID BAUM JAC, 2000, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V21, P267 BRINK J, 2004, EC DYNAMICS MODERN B COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 COOKE P, 2001, IND INNOVATION, V8, P267 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 EDQUIST C, 2000, SYSTEMS INNOVATION G FAGERBERG J, 2004, HDB INNOVATION FELDMAN MP, 2000, J COMP POLICY ANAL R, V2, P345 FREEMAN C, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P499 KENNEY M, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P21 LIEBESKIND JP, 1996, ORGAN SCI, V7, P428 MCKELVEY M, 1997, IND CORP CHANGE, V6, P503 MCKELVEY M, 2003, RES POLICY, V32, P483 MCKELVEY M, 2004, EC DYNAMICS MODERN B MCKELVEY M, 2005, EC BIOTECHNOLOGY REF NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NIOSI J, 2003, RES POLICY, V32, P737 NOOTEBOOM B, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P793 PISANO GPP, 1988, INT COLLABORATIVE VE POWELL WW, 1992, NETWORKS ORG STRUCTU POWELL WW, 1995, HDB EC SOCIOLOGY POWELL WW, 1996, ADMIN SCI QUART, V41, P116 POWELL WW, 2002, REG STUD, V3, P291 POWELL WW, 2002, REG STUD, V36, P291 SCOTT AJ, 1998, REGIONS WORLD EC COM SHAN WJ, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P387 SORENSON O, 2001, AM J SOCIOL, V106, P1546 VONHIPPEL E, 1994, MANAGE SCI, V40, P429 ZUCKER LG, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P290 NR 34 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2005 VL 17 IS 4 BP 409 EP 431 PG 23 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 994ZY UT ISI:000234070900002 ER PT J AU Genus, A Coles, AM TI On constructive technology assessment and limitations on public participation in technology assessment SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID GM FOOD; DISCOURSE AB The paper reviews selected literature on the theory and practice of constructive technology assessment ( CTA), which represents a promising approach for managing technology through society. CTA emphasises the involvement and interaction of diverse participants to facilitate 'upstream' ( or anticipatory) learning about possible impacts of technology and socially robust decision-making. The paper seeks to identify limitations of CTA, as these relate to the broadening of debate about nascent, controversial technology. In particular, it considers the relevance of CTA to the achievement of more democratic decision-making about technology. In addition, the paper directs attention towards differences in participants' discursive capacities and rhetorical skills that may affect the role and contribution of non-expert citizens in technology assessment. The paper draws upon the debate between Habermas and Foucault to suggest promising avenues for future research based on technology assessment conceptualised as discourse. It concludes that the theory and practice of CTA may be improved by addressing explicitly possible structural limitations on the broadening of debate, whilst invoking a notion of technology assessment as discourse to point up cultural, subjective or cognitive limitations on agency. C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. Brunel Univ, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England. RP Genus, A, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, 2nd Floor,Armstrong Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2005 VL 17 IS 4 BP 433 EP 443 PG 11 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 994ZY UT ISI:000234070900003 ER PT J AU Geels, FW TI The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860-1930) SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION; SECTORAL SYSTEMS; REGIME SHIFTS; SUSTAINABILITY; INNOVATION; SOCIOLOGY AB This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions ( e. g. transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e. g. artefacts, knowledge, user practices and markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. To understand how transitions from one socio-technical system to another come about, the article describes a conceptual multi-level perspective. The perspective is illustrated with a historical case study: the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles in the USA ( 1860 - 1930). The case study shows that technological substitution approaches to this transition are too simple, because they neglect the electric tram and bicycle, which acted as important stepping stones. The case study also corrects another mistake, namely that the gasoline car won by chance from steam and electric automobiles. It will be shown that particular niches played a crucial role in this competition, as well as the wider socio-technical context. The case study deviates on three points from the multi-level perspective. These deviations are used to conceptualize a particular transition pathway, called `de-alignment and re-alignment'. C1 Eindhoven Univ Technol, Dept Technol Management, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. RP Geels, FW, Eindhoven Univ Technol, Dept Technol Management, POB 513,IPO 2-10, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2005 VL 17 IS 4 BP 445 EP 476 PG 32 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 994ZY UT ISI:000234070900004 ER PT J AU Roberts, R TI Issues in modelling innovation intense environments: The importance of the historical and cultural context SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Since the 1970s the number of developments labelled as innovation intense environments has increased at an exponential rate. Innovation intense environments are defined here as those spaces that are purported to accelerate the rate of innovation and the proliferation of high technology industries. A number of academic fields now study existing innovation intense environments like Silicon Valley, in order to explain how they are constituted and how they can be replicated. Over the years a wide variety of model innovation intense environments has been proposed including: science park, technopolis, information city, milieu, industry cluster and regional innovation system. These different models are compared and analysed in terms of their portrayal of appropriate form, core innovation dynamics and policy recommendations. The discussion of models is then placed within the post-war history of the most famous innovation intense environment - Silicon Valley. It is concluded that such models must be well grounded within a specific historic and cultural context in order to function as useful analytic tools. C1 Univ Wollongong, Fac Arts, Sci Technol & Soc Program, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia. RP Roberts, R, Univ Wollongong, Fac Arts, Sci Technol & Soc Program, Northfields Ave, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2005 VL 17 IS 4 BP 477 EP 495 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 994ZY UT ISI:000234070900005 ER PT J AU Cesaroni, F Piccaluga, A TI Universities and intellectual property rights in southern European countries SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER; KNOWLEDGE; PATENTS; GROWTH; MIT AB This paper analyses and discusses the patenting activity of Public Research Organizations ( PROs) in Southern European countries. Despite the importance of the topic, studies about the European experience are rare. By using an original database of "American" ( USPTO) and "European" ( EPO) patents held by PROs in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece, we observe that the number of university patents in these countries has not increased dramatically during the last years, despite a growing interest at both European and national level during the same period. However, differences do exist among countries in terms of number of granted patents and regulative frameworks. With regard to PROs patenting strategies, we argue that PROs should be progressively able to adopt a "balanced" approach, in order to achieve co-existence between the traditional mechanisms of the so-called "open research system" and the more recent concerns about intellectual property protection, technology transfer and regional development. C1 Scuola Super St Anna, In Sat Lab, I-56126 Pisa, Italy. Univ Lecce, I-73100 Lecce, Italy. RP Piccaluga, A, Scuola Super St Anna, In Sat Lab, Piazza Martiri Liberta 33, I-56126 Pisa, Italy. EM picca@sssup.it CR 2002, EUROPEAN TREND CHART *CONS NAZ RIC CNR, 2002, CNR REP 2002 *USPTO, 2000, TECHN ASS FOR REP ABRAMO G, 1998, EC POLITICA IND, V99 ABRAMO G, 2003, EC POLITICA IND, V30, P77 AGRAWAL A, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P44 ARGYRES NS, 1998, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V35, P427 BALCONI M, 2004, RES POLICY, V33, P127 CARLSSON B, 2002, J EVOL ECON, V12, P199 CARO JMA, 2001, UNPUB DETERMINING FA CLARK B, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P313 COUPE T, 2000, ACAD R D U PATENTS FELDMAN M, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P105 FLORIDA R, 1999, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V15, P67 FONTES M, 2001, 01001 INETI DEP MOD GAMBARDELLA A, 2004, WORKSH FIRMS TECHN M GARCIA CE, 2002, 0226 CSIC GEUNA A, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P487 GEUNA A, 1999, EC KNOWLEDGE PRODUCT GEUNA A, 2001, J ECON ISSUES, V35, P607 GEUNA A, 2003, SPRU ELECT WORKING P, V99 HENDERSON R, 1998, REV ECON STAT, V80, P119 JAFFE AB, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P531 LAMOREAUX N, 1997, NBER WORKING PAPER, V5938 LAMOREAUX N, 1999, LEARNING FIRMS ORG N LOWE J, 1993, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V5, P27 MONOTTI A, 2003, U THEIR EXPLOITATION MOWERY DC, 2001, IND CORP CHANGE, V10, P781 MOWERY DC, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P99 NELSON RR, 2002, C SCI I I SCI SIEN PICCALUGA A, 2001, EC POLITICA IND, V109, P81 ROSENBERG N, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P323 SALTER A, 2000, TALENT NOT TECHNOLOG SHANE S, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P122 THURSBY JG, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P90 TRAJTENBERG M, 1997, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V5, P19 WALLMARK JT, 1997, TECHNOVATION, V17, P127 ZUCKER LG, 1998, ECON INQ, V36, P65 NR 38 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2005 VL 17 IS 4 BP 497 EP 518 PG 22 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 994ZY UT ISI:000234070900006 ER PT J AU Langley, A Kakadadse, NK Swailes, S TI Grand strategies and strategic actions in the pharmaceutical industry 2001-2002 SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID MANAGEMENT; INNOVATION; PERSPECTIVES; FIRM AB This paper explores the strategic actions realised by firms in the pharmaceutical industry during 2001 and 2002. The purpose was to develop an empirically derived categorisation of strategic actions and grand strategies from the behaviour of firms that could be used as the basis of a methodological framework for developing understanding of strategic change. Qualitative analysis was used to identify and categorise strategic actions implemented by pharmaceutical firms. Twenty-three grand strategies were identified and are described. Implications for further research in strategy development are discussed. C1 Univ Northampton Pk Campus, Sch Business, Northampton NN2 7AL, England. Univ Hull, Kingston Upon Hull HU6 7RX, N Humberside, England. RP Langley, A, Univ Northampton Pk Campus, Sch Business, Boughton Green Rd, Northampton NN2 7AL, England. EM amanda.langley2@ntlworld.com CR *ABPI, 2004, WHOL WELC JUDG PAR T ALLEN P, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P315 ASTLEY WG, 1983, ADMIN SCI QUART, V28, P245 BAIN JS, 1956, BARRIERS NEW COMPETI BALANCE R, 1992, WORLDS PHARM IND BELCHER T, 2000, INT REV FINANCIAL AN, V9, P219 BHANDARI M, 1999, MCKINSEY Q, V4, P58 BLAIKIE N, 1995, APPROACHES SOCIAL EN, P58 BOWER DJ, 1993, INT BUSINESS REV, V2, P83 BOYATZIS RE, 1998, THEMATIC ANAL CODE D CARROLL GR, 1995, ORG IND STRATEGY STR CHILD J, 1995, STRATEGIC CHOICE PER CHILD J, 1998, STRATEGIES COOPERATI COCKBURN IM, 2000, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V21, P1123 COOMBS R, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P261 CUNNINGHAM MJ, 2000, J PHARMACOL TOXICOL, V44, P291 DREWS J, 1997, DRUG DISCOV TODAY, V2, P72 GRILICHES Z, 1996, COMPETITIVE STRATEGI HANNAN MT, 1997, ORG THEORY SELECTED, P184 HENDERSON R, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P63 HENDERSON R, 1996, COMPETITIVE STRATEGI, P167 HOSKISSON RE, 1999, J MANAGE, V25, P417 HREBINIAK LG, 1985, ADMIN SCI QUART, V30, P336 JAMES AD, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P299 JONES T, 2001, EVOLUTION REVOLUTION, P4 JONES TT, 1984, STRUCTURE PERFORMANC KAY J, 1993, FDN CORPORATE SUCCES, P9 KETTLER H, 2001, CONSOLIDATION COMPET KETTLER HT, 1997, COMPETITION INNOVATI LEWIN AY, 1999, ORGAN SCI, V10, P519 MASON ES, 1959, EC CONCENTRATION MON MAYNARD A, 2003, HEALTH AFFAIR, V22, P31 MCGEE J, 1986, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V7, P141 MILES MD, 1994, QUALITATIVE DATA ANA MILLER D, 1994, ADMIN SCI QUART, V39, P1 MINTZBERG H, 1982, ACAD MANAGE J, V25, P465 MINTZBERG H, 1998, STRATEGY SAFARI GUID, P9 NUENDORF KA, 2002, CONTENT ANAL GUIDEBO ORSENIGO L, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P485 OUTHWAITE W, 1998, CRITICAL REALISM ESS, P1 PEARCE JA, 1982, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V24, P23 PEARCE JA, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PETTIGREW AM, 2001, BRIT J MANAGE, V12, S61 PHRMA, 2003, PHARM IND PROF 2003 ROBSON C, 2002, REAL WORLD RES SCHERER FM, 1980, IND MARKET STRUCTURE SCHMIDT S, 2002, EUROPEAN MANAGEM JUN, P223 SUBBANARISIMA PS, 2003, J INTELLECTUAL CAPIT, V4, P20 TAGGART J, 1993, WORLD PHARM IND THOMAS H, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P537 THOMAS H, 1999, BRIT J MANAGE, V10, P127 VINEY H, 2001, IDENTIFYING STRATEGI WALSH V, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P273 WEBB D, 1999, ORGAN SCI, V10, P601 NR 54 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2005 VL 17 IS 4 BP 519 EP 534 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 994ZY UT ISI:000234070900007 ER PT J AU Jing, C Tylecote, A TI A healthy hybrid: The technological dynamism of minority-state-owned firms in China SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Since its economic reform began in 1979 China's economy has grown rapidly but its dynamism has not been shared by the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) at its core. Although some progress has been made, a large proportion of SOEs remain inefficient and uncompetitive, failing to exploit their advantages in scale, experience and resources. In contrast there has been rapid growth first of the collective anti township enterprises, and then of the private sector, now the largest ownership type. However, private businesses continue to be handicapped by poor access to finance and other resources. These have however been made freely available to firms with only a minority state shareholding and otherwise owned by private shareholders and employees. This paper, focussing on the telecoms manufacturing sector, compares minority-state-owned hybrids favourably with other ownership types and argues that in the Chinese setting they can and should play a key role infuture development. C1 Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, Sheffield S1 4DT, S Yorkshire, England. RP Jing, C, Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, 9 Mappin St, Sheffield S1 4DT, S Yorkshire, England. EM ecp01jc@shef.ac.uk CR 2000, PEOPLES DAILY 0801 2002, PEOPLES DAILY 0220 *STAT STAT BUR, 1989, CHIN STAT YB BRUTON GD, 2003, J BUS VENTURING, V18, P233 CHANG HJ, 2002, POST AUTISTIC EC REV GOLDSTEIN SM, 1995, CHINA Q, V144, P1105 KYNGE J, 2003, FINANCIAL TIMES 0205, P11 LIU YL, 1992, CHINA Q, V130, P293 OI J, 1995, CHINA Q, V144, P1132 PARRIS K, 1993, CHINA Q, V134, P242 SAUSSURE JD, 2001, BANKING SYSTEM PEOPL SONG S, 1989, AUSTR J CHINESE AFFA, V21, P57 TSAI KS, 2002, BACK ALLEY BANKING P TSANG EWK, 1994, J BUS VENTURING, V9, P451 TYLECOTE A, 1999, IND INNOVATION, V6, P25 TYLECOTE AB, 2004, ASIAN BUSINESS MANAG, V3, P57 WONG CPW, 1991, CHINA Q, V128, P691 WONG CPW, 1992, MOD CHINA, V18, P197 WU YC, 2001, CHINA PROBLEMS PROSP NR 19 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 257 EP 277 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800002 ER PT J AU Bin, G TI Technological development, technology spillover and profitability: An industry level empirical analysis of Chinese manufacturing industries SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; INNOVATION; PRODUCTIVITY; PERSPECTIVE; INVESTMENT; FIRMS; MODEL AB In this paper, we use industry level panel data regression models to examine the technology spillovers from large- and medium-sized enterprises (LMEs) into non-LMEs, as well as from state-owned LMEs into state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises, in Chinese manufacturing industries. Our study reveals that technological developments in LMEs have a technology spillover effect upon non-LMEs, and state-owned LMEs have a strong technology spillover effect upon both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises in manufacturing industries with below average technological capital intensity. As the agents of knowledge diffusion and providers of technological public goods, state-owned LMEs have played a critical role in bridging the technology gap between advanced technologies brought in by foreign funded enterprises and the technological base of other local firms, and thus have facilitated the assimilation and adaptation of advanced foreign technologies in the development of the Chinese manufacturing industry. C1 Zhejiang Univ, Sch Management, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R China. RP Bin, G, Zhejiang Univ, Sch Management, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R China. EM guob@cma.zju.edu.cn CR *CHIN STAT STAT BU, CHIN STAT YB SCI TEC ADAMS JD, 1999, REV ECON STAT, V81, P499 CANTWELL J, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P155 CHOW GC, 1993, Q J ECON, V108, P809 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 ERNST H, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P143 GABRIELE A, 2002, REV INT POLIT ECON, V9, P333 GRILICHES Z, 1980, AM ECON REV, V70, P343 HALL BH, 1995, J ECONOMETRICS, V65, P263 HASAN R, 2002, J DEV ECON, V69, P23 HOLLANDERS H, 2002, LABOUR ECON, V9, P579 HU A, 2005, REV EC STAT, V87 JEFFERSON G, IN PRESS EC INNOVATI JEFFERSON G, 1999, ENTERPRISE REFORM CH KINOSHITA Y, 1999, 221 U MICH BUS SCH LAN P, 1996, TECHNOVATION, V16, P277 LI XY, 2001, EC SYSTEMS, V25, P305 LIU XL, 1997, TECHNOVATION, V17, P119 LIU ZQ, 2002, J COMP ECON, V30, P579 SUTTMEIER RP, 1997, TECHNOL SOC, V19, P305 WANG JY, 1992, EUR ECON REV, V36, P137 WHITE S, 2001, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V21 XU QR, 1998, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V45, P381 XUE L, 1997, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P67 NR 24 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 279 EP 292 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800003 ER PT J AU Lai, HC Chiu, YC Leu, HD TI Innovation capacity comparison of China's information technology industrial clusters: The case of Shanghai, Kunshan, Shenzhen and Dongguan SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID DETERMINANTS; COMPETITION; CITIES; FIRMS AB The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to explore the effects of industrial cluster on innovation capacity, and second, to study the impact of external resources on firms' innovation capacity especially under Chinese regional economic policy. This is a critical subject that lacks sufficient analysis. Through years of investment and effort, several IT industrial clusters have developed in China with Shanghai, Kunshan, Shenzhen and Dongguan the better-known examples. These IT industrial clusters were chosen for an empirical study on the disparities in China's innovation capacity. All of the innovation capacity determinants at these four IT industrial clusters were different. It was confirmed that the regional dimension of Chinese economic policy affects firms' innovation capacity in the industrial cluster. The results also show whether the regional policy differences will moderate the cluster effect on innovation. C1 Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Inst Management Technol, Tainan, Taiwan. Natl Chung Hsing Univ, Taichung, Taiwan. Chung Yuan Christian Univ, Chungli, Taiwan. RP Lai, HC, Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Inst Management Technol, 65,Yunan St, Tainan, Taiwan. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 293 EP 315 PG 23 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800004 ER PT J AU Li, JT Yue, DR TI Managing global research and development in China: Patterns of R&D configuration and evolution SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS; INDUSTRIAL-RESEARCH; MULTINATIONAL-ENTERPRISES; ECLECTIC PARADIGM; JAPANESE FIRMS; JOINT VENTURES; UNITED-STATES; TECHNOLOGY; MANAGEMENT; INTERNATIONALIZATION AB The growing intenzationalization of R&D activities challenges multinational corporations (MNCs) to formulate technology strategies and manage increasingly diffuse and diverse networks of R&D laboratories and alliances in the context of disparate national institutions. This paper examines the evolutionary processes of MNCs' R&D strategies in China in terms of two principal dimensions, i.e. geographic dispersion and functional focus. Based on a study of 378 international R&D centers and alliances established in China over the 1995-2001 period, we investigate the evolution of managing international R&D configurations in an emerging economy. The model is further illustrated with key findings from case studies of three leading high-tech MNCs in managing their global R&D operations in China over 1996-2004, specifically Fujitsu, Motorola and Nokia. This study contributes to the existing literature by exploring the globalization of R&D through foreign centers of scientific and technological excellence, which enables MNCs to innovate closer to their product markets and manufacturing facilities in emerging markets. C1 Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business & Management, Dept Management Org, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China. RP Li, JT, Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Business & Management, Dept Management Org, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China. EM mnjtli@ust.hk CR 2000, PEOPLES DAILY 0921 *CHIN SOC STAT, 2000, STAT NUMB PERC PERS *OECD, 1998, INT IND R D PATT TRE *OECD, 2003, OECD SCI TECHN IND S *OECD, 2004, OECD ORG EV CHIN INT ASAKAWA K, 1996, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V43, P24 BARTLETT CA, 1990, MANAGING GLOBAL FIRM CHANG SJ, 1995, ACAD MANAGE J, V38, P383 CHENG JLC, 1993, J INT BUS STUD, V24, P1 CHIESA V, 1996, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V43, P7 CREAMER D, 1976, OVERSEAS RES DEV US DEMEYER A, 1989, R&D MANAGE, V19, P135 DOX Y, 1998, ALLIANCE ADVANTAGE DUNNING JH, 1988, J INT BUS STUD, V19, P1 DUNNING JH, 1995, J INT BUS STUD, V26, P461 FROST TS, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V22, P101 GASSMANN O, 1998, R&D MANAGE, V28, P147 GASSMANN O, 1999, P PORTL INT C MAN EN, P25 GASSMANN O, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P231 GELB C, 2000, CHINA BUS REV, V27, P40 GERYBADZE A, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P251 HAGEDOORN J, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P477 HOOD N, 2000, GLOBALIZATION MULTIN HOWELLS J, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P133 HU MY, 1993, J BUS RES, V26, P149 JOHANSON J, 1977, J INT BUS STUD, V8, P23 JONES GK, 2000, MANAGE INT REV, V40, P11 KOGUT B, 1983, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR, P38 KUEMMERLE W, 1996, THESIS HARVRD U BOST KUEMMERLE W, 1997, HARVARD BUS REV, V75, P61 KUEMMERLE W, 1999, J INT BUS STUD, V360, P1 KUEMMERLE W, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P179 LI J, 2003, MANAGERIAL DECISION, V24, P101 LUO YD, 1997, ORGAN SCI, V8, P648 MARCH JG, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P71 MEDCOF JW, 1997, R&D MANAGE, V27, P301 NIOSI J, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P107 NOBEL R, 1998, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V19, P479 ODAGIRI H, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P1059 PAN YG, 2000, J INT BUS STUD, V31, P535 PEARCE R, 1996, R&D MANAGE, V26, P315 PEARCE RD, 1989, INT RES DEV MULTINAT PEARCE RD, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P157 PENNERHAHN JD, 1998, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V19, P149 PERRINO AC, 1989, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V32, P12 RONSTADT RC, 1977, RES DEV ABROAD US MU RONSTADT RC, 1978, J INT BUS STUD, V9, P7 SCHMITT RW, 1991, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V34, P13 SERAPIO MG, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P303 SHAVER M, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V18, P811 SONG J, 2002, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V23, P191 VOELKER R, 1999, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V11, P199 VONZEDTWITZ M, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P569 VONZEDTWITZ M, 2004, R&D MANAGE, V34, P439 NR 54 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 317 EP 337 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800005 ER PT J AU Guan, JC Yam, RCM Mok, CK TI Collaboration between industry and research institutes/universities on industrial innovation in Beijing, China SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT INNOVATIVENESS; GOVERNMENT; UNIVERSITY; COOPERATION; PERFORMANCE; KNOWLEDGE; SYSTEMS; FRANCE AB Most R&D resources in China were allocated to public research institutes/universities until the economic transition of the mid 1990s. To maximize the return from these resources, it is important to have a healthy collaboration between industry and research institutes/universities on industrial innovation. This paper examines that relationship and discusses some empirical evidence on its efficiency with particular reference to industry in Beijing. Following a survey of 950 industrial enterprises, the influences of the collaboration relationship on industrial innovation were analyzed. The main findings indicate that the technology novelty of industrial innovation is positively related to that relationship, i.e. the more the collaboration, the higher the technology novelty of the innovation. However, the collaboration relationship is less efficient in terms of economic performance indicators such as innovation sales and profit ratios, to measure innovation. Moreover, the collaboration relationship is still far from efficient in stimulating industrial innovation in China. The major barriers to successful collaboration have also been addressed in this paper with the aim of devising policies and suggesting possible improvements to collaboration efficiency. C1 City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Mfg Engn & Engn Management, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China. Beijing Univ Aeronaut & Astronaut, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China. Tsing Hua Univ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China. RP Yam, RCM, City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Mfg Engn & Engn Management, Tat Chee Ave, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China. EM mery@cityu.edu.hk CR WORLD COMPETITIVENES *OECD EUR, 1997, PROP GUID COLL INT T *RES GROUP CHIN S, 2000, CHIN S T DEV RES REP *RES GROUP CHIN S, 2001, CHIN S T DEV RES REP *RES GROUP CHIN S, 2002, REP REG INN CAP CHIN BOUGRAIN F, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P735 BROCKHOFF K, 1996, R&D MANAGE, V26, P49 CARAYANNIS EG, 1998, TECHNOVATION, V18, P1 CARAYANNIS EG, 2000, TECHNOVATION, V20, P477 COOMBS R, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P403 DOZ YL, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P55 ETZKOWITZ H, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P109 FUJISUE K, 1998, TECHNOVATION, V18, P371 GODIN B, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P273 GONARD T, 1999, R&D MANAGE, V29, P143 GRITSAI, 1997, GEOJOURNAL, V41, P379 GUAN J, 1994, J SYSTEM SCI SYSTEM, V3, P241 GUAN J, 1998, P 2 INT S MAN TECHN, P482 GUAN J, 2002, PRODUCTION INVENTORY, V43, P30 GUAN J, 2003, TECHNOVATION, V23, P737 HAMEL G, 1994, COMPETING FUTURE JONESEVANS D, 1999, R&D MANAGE, V29, P47 KLEINSCHMIDT EJ, 1991, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V8, P240 LI JZ, 2000, SCI RES MANAGEMENT, V21, P106 LIU XL, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P1091 LU QW, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P55 OLSON EM, 1995, J MARKETING, V59, P48 REES J, 1991, REV URBAN REGIONAL D, V3, P39 ROBINSON AG, 1997, INNOVATION EXPLOSION SONG XM, 1998, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V15, P124 VONHIPPEL F, 1997, SOURCES INNOVATION WEN J, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P1309 NR 32 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 339 EP 353 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800006 ER PT J AU Wei, J Malik, K Shou, YY TI A pattern of enhancing innovative knowledge capabilities: Case study of a Chinese telecom manufacturer SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY; CAPACITY; FIRM AB During the 1990s Chinese telecommunication (telecom) manufacturing firms attempted to enhance their innovative knowledge capabilities by concentrating efforts on technological importation and assimilation. In order to improve indigenous technological innovation capability, Chinese firms enhanced their capabilities by accumulating and reactivating firm-specific knowledge. This paper attempts to explore the growth trajectory of some Chinese telecom firms' technological capabilities. Often the catching-up of a firm's technological capability is a trade-off process between the frequent accumulation of technical knowledge and the infrequent leapfrogging of the comprehensive technological capability. To explain the catching-up trajectory of technological evolution the Chinese telecom manufacturing sector was selected. A conceptual framework of the catching-up of technological capabilities is proposed. The framework and the implicit logic of technological catching-up are analyzed through a theoretical lens. A detailed empirical study of a Chinese telecom manufacturer is then presented to validate the capability catching-up pattern. C1 Univ Manchester, Manchester Business Sch, PREST, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. Zhejiang Univ, Hangzhou, Peoples R China. RP Malik, K, Univ Manchester, Manchester Business Sch, PREST, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. EM khaleel.malik@man.ac.uk CR ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 CRANE D, 1972, INVISIBLE COLL DIFFU DAWSON RJ, 2000, J KNOWLEDGE MANAGEME, V4, P320 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 FONTES M, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P79 FRANSMAN M, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABI GARUD R, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P365 HAOUR G, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P177 HOBDAY M, 1995, INNOVATION E ASIA CH INGHAM M, 1998, R&D MANAGE, V28, P249 KIM L, 1980, RES POLICY, V9, P254 KIM L, 1997, IMITATION INNOVATION KOGUT B, 1992, ORGAN SCI, V3, P83 LEE K, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P459 LEONARDBARTON D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG MALERBA F, 1992, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V2, P49 MALIK K, 2001, STRATEGIC CHANGE, V10, P259 MEYER MH, 1993, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V34, P29 PANDA H, 1996, TECHNOVATION, V16, P561 PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P79 ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX SHARIF N, 1994, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V6, P151 SPENDER JC, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P45 TIDD J, 1997, R&D MANAGE, V27, P359 WEI J, 2002, FIRMS TECHNOLOGICAL XU QR, 1995, SCI SCI SCI TECHNOLO, V16, P29 NR 27 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 355 EP 365 PG 11 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800007 ER PT J AU Millar, CCJM Choi, CJ Chu, RTJ TI The state in science, technology and innovation districts: Conceptual models for China SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE GOVERNANCE; BUSINESS ORGANIZATION; ETHICS; ISSUES; DEBT AB Throughout the world the creation of successful technology districts has become a major issue for public policy makers. This paper analyses the potential role of the state in entrepreneurship and the creation of technology districts, and outlines implications for China's social market economy. We identify three types of technology districts: (1) market-driven technology districts such as Silicon Valley in the USA and Cambridge in the UK; (2) state-driven technology districts targeting foreign multinational companies, such as Sophia Antipolis in France and Singapore; (3) state-driven technology districts which nurture local companies, such as the Hsinchu Science and Industrial Park in Taiwan. We believe that these three typologies provide the foundation for better understanding the potential role of the state in science and technology for China in the early 21st century. C1 Univ Twente, Sch Business Publ Adm & Technol, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. Australian Natl Univ, Canberra, ACT, Australia. Univ Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, England. RP Millar, CCJM, Univ Twente, Sch Business Publ Adm & Technol, POB 217,Capitool 15, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. EM c.millar@bbt.utwente.nl CR ALBERT M, 1991, CAPITALISM CAPITALIS AMSDEN A, 1989, ASIAS NEXT GIANT S K AMSDEN A, 2001, RISE REST CHALLENGES AMSDEN A, 2003, LATE DEV TAIWANS UPG BIGGART NW, 2004, ACAD MANAGE REV, V29, P28 BOTOSAN C, 1997, ACCOUNT REV JUL, P323 BOTOSAN CA, 2000, DISCLOSURE LEVEL EXP CHOI C, 1999, J INT BUS STUD, V31, P189 CHU RTJ, 2000, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE DONALDSON T, 2003, ACAD MANAGE REV, V28, P363 DORE R, 1999, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V15, P102 ETZIONI A, 1996, AM SOCIOL REV, V61, P1 FREEMAN RE, 1984, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT FREEMAN RE, 2002, BUS ETHICS Q, V12, P331 FRUIN WM, 1992, JAPANESE ENTERPRISE GONZALEZ AM, 2003, J BUS ETHICS, V44, P23 HONIG B, 2003, J WORLD BUS, V38, R1 LAVERTY KJ, 1996, ACAD MANAGE REV, V21, P825 NORTH DC, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR PHAN PH, 2001, ASIA PACIFIC J MANAG, V18, P131 PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG REED D, 2002, J BUS ETHICS, V37, P223 ROE M, 1994, STRONG MANAGERS WEAK SAXENIAN A, 1992, ENVIRON PLANN D, V10, P377 SENGUPTA P, 1998, ACCOUNT REV, V73, P459 TAM OK, 2002, J BUS ETHICS, V37, P303 TRIANTIS GG, 1995, CALIF LAW REV, V83, P1073 WADE R, 1990, GOVERNING MARKET WHITLEY RD, 1990, ORGAN STUD, V11, P47 NR 29 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 367 EP 373 PG 7 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800008 ER PT J AU Zhu, D Tann, J TI A regional innovation system in a small-sized region: A clustering model in Zhongguancun Science Park SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INTEGRATION; FIRMS AB China, since the beginning of its 'open door' policy, has done much to reform its National Innovation System, recognising that its ambitious agenda for science and technology could only delivered by a focus on the regional. In 1988 China's first science park, by far the largest in Asia, was created at Zhongguancun Science Park (ZSP) near Beijing. ZSP was established following visits by Chinese scientists to Route 128 and Silicon Valley in the USA, and the importation of perceived best practice to China. ZSP is analysed as a Regional Innovation System, comprising high-technology firms and institutional infrastructure within five clusters. This approach highlights the interactions and knowledge flows between the elements of the system. The five clusters comprise: high technology entrepreneurs/enterprises, institutions, support endowments, government and intermediaries clusters, each of which is made up of a number of elements. ZSP closely interacts with China's NIS, some national R&D laboratories and a number of national universities located within the science park. C1 Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Business Sch, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. RP Tann, J, Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Business Sch, Univ House, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2005 VL 17 IS 3 BP 375 EP 390 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 977DE UT ISI:000232781800009 ER PT J AU Pohlmann, M Gebhardt, C Etzkowitz, H TI The development of innovation systems and the art of innovation management - Strategy, control and the culture of innovation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB The success of strategies of changing or establishing innovation systems is indicated by scientific and technological innovations, the number of new products and patents, the prosperity of regions and firms and the creation of new jobs. However, there is also a less visible outcome of the innovation process in regard to knowledge creation, redesign of cultural software of what is understood as innovation and in new management concepts to maintain and generate organizational innovativeness. The papers in this issue contribute to the identification of blockages to innovation and means of overcoming them related to the latter issue. The first blockage to innovation is the human capital dilemma of insufficient trained persons in innovation management; a second is the paucity of effective organizational mechanisms to realize the full potential of innovations that have been achieved in one environment to transfer them to where they are needed in another. The capacity to integrate innovation mechanisms and carry out technological and organizational transfer is the issue here. With a focus on the less invisible indicators of innovation a new understanding of the management of innovation is possible. C1 Univ Heidelberg, Dept Sociol, D-69047 Heidelberg, Germany. Management Zentrum, St Gallen, Switzerland. RP Pohlmann, M, Univ Heidelberg, Dept Sociol, Sandgasse 9, D-69047 Heidelberg, Germany. EM markus.pohlmann@t-online.de CR ETZKOWITZ H, 2005, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V17, P73 GEBHARDT C, 2005, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V17, P21 KLOFSTEN M, 2005, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V17, P105 KRATZER R, 2005, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V17, P35 PALAZZO G, 2005, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V17, P55 POHLMANN M, 2005, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V17, P9 SAAD M, 2005, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V17, P89 WEICK KE, 1985, PROZESS ORG NR 8 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 1 EP 7 PG 7 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800001 ER PT J AU Pohlmann, M TI The evolution of innovation: Cultural backgrounds and the use of innovation models SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE; NETWORK AB Innovation is said to be one of the most important factors in economic competition. Regions and firms are striving for the establishment of innovative structures. However, the question of how to organize permanent or sustainable innovativeness is not easily answered. Suggesting six rules of innovation, the first rule is, that there is no general rule of how to organize sustainable innovativeness. Anyway, we do know much about innovation killers and about how organizations deal with innovations and we do know that innovations do not happen merely by chance. There are regional paths of innovations, innovation paradigms and long waves of innovation models. For Europe, especially for Germany, the adaptation of 'innovation models' has been very important for the evolution of new institutional and organizational forms, but we can identify striking cultural differences. In Asia, the adaption of the same innovation models did lead to different forms of innovation management with considerably different outcomes. The article concludes that transferring implicates transforming in a culturally path-dependent way. C1 Univ Heidelberg, Dept Sociol, D-69117 Heidelberg, Germany. RP Pohlmann, M, Univ Heidelberg, Dept Sociol, Sandgasse 9, D-69117 Heidelberg, Germany. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 9 EP 19 PG 11 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800002 ER PT J AU Gebhardt, C TI The impact of managerial rationality on the organizational paradigm. Role models in the management of innovation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB There is ample empirical evidence that managers believe that innovativeness is structurally anchored in the firm's organization. Moreover, managers rely on a dynamic approach to structure. It appears that innovation networks and projects aiming at innovation currently constitute legitimate structural solutions that also imply a shift towards a new centralization. We regard these structural forms as features of an organizational paradigm that is justified by an underlying managerial rationality. Thus innovativeness is perceived as the best structural fit to an ever-changing environment. Based on case studies in the software industry we discuss how approaches in organizational theory, economic development and cybernetics contribute to the analysis of the phenomenon. We explore the managerial tool kit through the last three decades in order to shed light on the nature of the underlying managerial rationality. C1 Malik Management Zentrum St Gallen, CH-9014 St Gallen, Switzerland. RP Gebhardt, C, Malik Management Zentrum St Gallen, Rittmeyerstr 13, CH-9014 St Gallen, Switzerland. EM christiane.gebhardt@mzsg.ch CR ASHBY WR, 1956, INTRO CYBERNETICS 2 BARNETT WP, 2002, IND CORP CHANGE, V11, P289 BATESON G, 1979, MIND NATURE NECESSAR BEER S, 1967, DECISION CONTROL MEA BEER S, 1988, DIAGNOSING SYSTEM OR BOYER R, 1986, THEORIE REGULATION A CASTELLS M, 2000, RISE NETWORK SOC COOKE P, 1994, OKONOMISCHE POLITISC, P233 DICKEN P, 1992, GLOBAL SHIFT INT EC DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE DRUCKER P, 2000, HARVARD BUS REV, V78, P149 ELAZAR DJ, 1993, J STATE GOVT, P46 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC GEBHARDT C, 1997, COMPARATIV GEBHARDT C, 1997, REGINALISIERUNG FORS HABERMAS J, 1985, PHILOS DISKURS MODER HALL RH, 1999, ORG STRUCTURES PROCE, P45 HAMMER M, 2001, REENGINEERING CORPOR HARVEY D, 1990, CONDITION POSTMODERN HURST DK, 1995, CRISIS RENEWAL JOHANNISSON B, 1987, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V17, P3 JOHANNISSON B, 1987, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V17, P49 JOHNSSON T, 1987, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V17, P34 KAPLAN RS, 1992, HARVARD BUS REV, V1, P71 KERN H, 1990, ENDE ARBEITSTEILUNG KOTTER JP, 1997, LEADING CHANGE LUNDVALL BA, 1995, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MALIK F, 1999, WIRKSAME UNTERNEHMEN MATURANA HR, 2000, BIOL WURZELN ERKENNE MAYNTZ R, 1992, J SOZIALFORSCHUNG, V32, P19 MILLER D, 1990, ICARUS PARADOX EXCEP MINTZBERG H, 1999, STRATEGY SAFARI GUID POHLMANN M, 2002, COMMUNICATION REDDING GS, 1990, SPIRIT CHINESE CAPIT, P3 SCHAFERS B, E COMMERCE WINNERS P STERN CW, 1998, PERSPECTIVES STRATEG TEUBNER G, 1992, EMERGENZ ENTSTEHUNG, P189 TUSHMANN ML, 1988, READINGS MANAGEMENT VONFORSTER H, 2002, UNDERSTANDING SYSTEM WEICK KE, 1995, SENSEMAKING ORG NR 40 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 21 EP 34 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800003 ER PT J AU Kratzer, N TI Employment organization and innovation - Flexibility and security in 'virtualized' companies SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB The discussion of a new 'regime' of innovation on the one hand and the observation of an increasing amount of flexible employment on the other hand leads to the question: 'Is the "flexible employment-organization" the answer to the new demands for a "flexible innovation regime"?' Based on empirical findings in three case studies of `virtualized' companies, the article shows that there is indeed a mutual connection. However, the 'solution' creates new problems. The 'virtualized' companies have to find new solutions to balance the demands of flexibility and stability and the employees need a new balance of security and flexibility. The article shows that there is no totally virtualized institutional setting but there are new institutional mixes of organization and market and of 'formal' and 'informal' ways to balance security/stability and flexibility. C1 ISF Munchen, Inst Sozialwissensch Forsch eV, D-80796 Munich, Germany. RP Kratzer, N, ISF Munchen, Inst Sozialwissensch Forsch eV, Jakob Klar Str 9, D-80796 Munich, Germany. EM nick.kratzer@isf-muenchen.de CR *BMBF, 1 TAG APR 2002 BECK U, 2001, MODERNISIERUNG MODER BELLMANN L, 2002, MITTEILUNGEN ARBEITS, V35, P517 BOGENHOLD D, 1999, UNTERNEHMENSGRUNDUNG BOLTE A, 2002, ORG INFORMELLEN HEKT CASTELLS M, 2001, INFORMATIONSZEITAL 1 DOHL V, 1999, HERAUSFORDERUNGEN UN, V3, P103 DOHL V, 2001, MODERNISIERUNG MODER, P219 DOSTAL W, 2002, MITTEILUNGEN ARBEITS, V35, P492 EGGERS T, 2002, NACHHALTIGE ARBEITSG, P123 FOSTE W, 2001, SCHRIFTENREIHE FORSC, V2 FRITSCH M, 1999, UNTERNEHMENGSGRUNDUN, P159 KNUTH M, 2002, NACHHALTIGE ARBEITSG, P303 KOLLING A, 2000, JB SOZIALWISSENSCHAF, P149 KRATZER N, 1999, JB SOZIALWISSENSCHAF, P113 KRATZER N, 2004, BERICHTERSTATTUNG SO KRATZER N, 2004, ENTGRENZUNG ENTSCHIE, P329 KURZ C, 2002, MITTEILUNGEN ARBEITS, V35, P602 LEICHT R, 2003, ENTGRENZUNG ARBEIT L, P231 MALONE TW, 1999, HARVARD BUSINESS MAN, V2, P28 PONGRATZ H, 2003, ARBEITSKRAFTUNTERNEH RAMMERT W, 1997, SOZ WELT, V48, P397 REINDL J, 2000, LEVIATHAN, V30, P413 SAUER D, 1997, JB SOZIALWISSENSCHAF, P19 SAUER D, 1999, PARADOXIEN INNOVATIO SAUER D, 1999, PARADOXIEN INNOVATIO, P9 SAUER D, 2004, BERICHTERSTATTUNG SO SYDOW J, 1999, KOOPERATION WETTBEWE, P211 VOSS GG, 1998, KOLNER Z SOZIOL SOZ, V50, P131 WENGEL J, 2002, VERBREITUNG INNOVATI WINDELER A, 2001, UNTERNEHMUNGSNETZWER NR 31 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 35 EP 53 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800004 ER PT J AU Palazzo, G TI Postnational constellations of innovativeness: A cosmopolitan approach SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID NETWORK FORMS; PERSPECTIVE; ORGANIZATIONS; CREATIVITY; LIFE AB Innovativeness emerges from the contexts in which individual actors and groups of actors are embedded and which influence their behavior. We refer to that context in terms of culture. The management literature normally understands culture in the sense of Alexis de Tocqueville's 'habits of the heart', which is the customs, habits, norms, values, and shared views of reality, expressed in a specific behavior of individuals and groups. This paper confronts established concepts of innovativeness with recent discussions on individualized and globalized societies. According to the sociologist Ulrich Beck, we are interacting more and more in a transnational and transcultural context thereby developing shared habits of the heart beyond the established ( mainly geographically bound) understanding of culture. A new culture is emerging, which he introduces as cosmopolitanism. The paper analyses the conditions of innovativeness in cosmopolitan interaction by discussing two examples, the emergence of transnational civil society activism and global cooperation of researchers in the fight against SARS. C1 Univ Lausanne, Ecole Hautes Etud Commerciales, HEC, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Palazzo, G, Univ Lausanne, Ecole Hautes Etud Commerciales, HEC, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 55 EP 72 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800005 ER PT J AU Etzkowitz, H TI The renewal of venture capital: Toward a counter-cyclical model SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB A counter-cyclical model of venture capital is proposed to remedy the dilemma of a private venture capital industry subject to the vicissitudes of the business cycle. A mix of private, public, university, corporate, and foundation venture capitals have the potential to create an industry that is active in all phases of the cycle and at all stages of the firm formation trajectory, thus fulfilling the original venture capital vision of creating economic growth through start-ups based on advanced technology, often developed in universities. C1 SUNY Coll Purchase, Sci Policy Inst, Purchase, NY 10577 USA. RP Etzkowitz, H, SUNY Coll Purchase, Sci Policy Inst, Purchase, NY 10577 USA. EM henryetzkowitz@earthlink.net CR 2002, TECHNOLOGY ACCESS RE, V15, P16 2003, TECHNOLOGY ACCESS RE, V16, P2 ANDRETSCH DB, 2000, RES POLICY, V31, P145 BARROW C, 2001, INCUBATORS REALISTS BENJAMIN G, 2000, ANGEL FINANCING BUSH V, 1960, SCI ENDLESS FRONTIER ETZKOWITZ H, 1999, J TECHNOLOGY TRANSFE, V24, P223 ETZKOWITZ H, 2001, PUBLIC VENTURE CAPIT ETZKOWITZ H, 2002, MIT RISE ENTREPRENEU FELDMAN M, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P105 FELDMAN M, 2003, TECHNOLOGY ACCESS RE, V16, P1 GOMPERS P, 2002, VENTURE CAPITAL CYCL HAFNER K, 1996, WIZARDS STAY LATE OR MERVIS J, 2003, SCIENCE, V299 OJEFORS L, 2002, COMMUNICATION SALMON TO, 2002, RRD OPTICS 1, V2, P183 SCHUMPETER J, 1991, JA SCHUMPETER EC SOC VANLLOY B, UNPUB COMBINING ENTR VANOSNABRUGGE M, 2000, ANGEL INVESTING WILSON J, 1986, NEW VENTURERS INSIDE YOZMA, 2001, FIN KNOWL WORKSH MIL NR 21 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 73 EP 87 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800006 ER PT J AU Saad, M Zawdie, G TI From technology transfer to the emergence of a triple helix culture: The experience of Algeria in innovation and technological capability development SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Based on the post-independence industrialization experience of Algeria, this paper explores the need for and the challenges and prospects of shifts of policies and strategies from central planning to decentralization and liberalization; from a heavy industry-dominated scenario to one dominated by SMEs; and from reliance on technology transfer to the development of a culture of innovation and technological learning. The paper highlights the business incubation system as an aspect of the triple helix model of innovation in which universities, industry, government and non-government organizations feature as principal actors in the national innovation system. The paper notes the need for both technology transfer and the development of the triple helix culture in developing countries. It also underlines the need for policy in developing countries to ensure that the former played only a residual role, while the latter took the lead in providing for the development of a culture of innovation. The culture of bureaucracy and institutional fragmentation has been a major factor militating against initiatives for technological capability development; and the conventional technology transfer practice has reinforced this culture. A major policy initiative is needed in developing countries to put the national system of innovation in place and remove the constraints on the development of the triple helix culture. C1 Univ W England, Bristol Business Sch, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. Univ Strathclyde, DLIIDS, Glasgow G1 1XQ, Lanark, Scotland. RP Saad, M, Univ W England, Bristol Business Sch, Frenchay Campus, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. EM mohammed.saad@uwe.ac.uk CR 2003, 1 INT WORKSH INTR BU BESSANT J, 2002, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V2, P5 CAMAGNI R, 1991, INNOVATION NETWORKS CAVUSGIL ST, 2003, J BUS IND MARK, V18, P6 CLARK N, 1987, LONG RUN EC EVOLUTIO COOKE P, 1993, REGIONAL SCI, V74, P317 COOPER C, 1975, MACHINERY SUPPLIERS DODGSON M, 1996, HDB IND INNOVATION DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 ETZKOWITZ H, 1997, U GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE E ETZKOWITZ H, 2002, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V1, P7 ETZKOWITZ H, 2004, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V2, P159 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC HAKANSSON H, 1995, DEV RELATIONSHIPS BU HOBBDAY M, 1996, HDB IND INNOVATION KANTER R, 1995, WORLD CLASS THRIVING LEONARDBARTON D, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P251 LEONARDBARTON D, 1990, PROD OP MAN SEM HARV LEONARDBARTON D, 1998, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG LEYDESDORFF L, 1998, SCI PUBL POLICY, V25, P195 LUNDAVALL B, 2002, RES POLICY INNOVATIO LUNDVALL B, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MAILLAT D, 1998, REV EC REGIONALE URB, V3, P429 MORGAN K, 1997, REG STUD, V31, P491 NELSON R, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON R, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GENERATIO NELSON R, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI PORTER ME, 1996, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V19, P85 RICKARDS T, 1985, STIMULATING INNOVATI ROEMER P, 1990, J POLTICIAL EC, V98, P71 ROTHWELL R, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P221 SAAD M, 1991, THESIS U BRIGHTON SAAD M, 2000, DEV TECHNOLOGY TRANS SAAD M, 2004, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V3, P19 SEATON RAF, 1993, TECHNOVATION, V13, P45 TIDD J, 2001, MANAGING INNOVATION VANDIJK MP, 2002, INNOVATION SMALL ENT NR 39 TC 1 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 89 EP 103 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800007 ER PT J AU Klofsten, M TI New venture ideas: An analysis of their origin and early development SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB One of the requirements for starting a firm is an idea that can be developed into a business opportunity. This paper focuses on the early development of a firm's business idea and the factors that affect this process. The assumption is that the founders of the firm have a core importance in the formulation of the first draft of the idea, but that the continued development and polishing that turns the idea into a business opportunity occurs in interaction with a number of actors in the market such as clients, financiers, suppliers, and other collaboration partners. Five wholly newly started knowledge-intensive firms-A-TV, A-Tech, S-Tire, M-Qon and M- Point, all of whom are spin-offs from Linko ping University or from firms-are analysed. The results of the study agree with previous research on business opportunities and ideas and the link to the skills base of the founders, environmental effects, and changes in the idea over time. Practical and theoretical implications of new venture idea development and entrepreneurship training are presented. C1 Linkoping Univ, Dept Management & Econ, S-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. RP Klofsten, M, Linkoping Univ, Dept Management & Econ, S-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2005 VL 17 IS 1 BP 105 EP 119 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 943ZD UT ISI:000230393800008 ER PT J AU Hobday, M TI Firm-level innovation models: Perspectives on research in developed and developing countries SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT; DYNAMIC MODEL; TECHNOLOGY; MANAGEMENT; ORGANIZATION AB This paper provides a critical review of firm-level innovation models based on research in the industrially advanced countries (IACs) and draws implications for firms in industrialising countries such as Korea and Taiwan. The paper summarises different categories of innovation model and identifies their achievements and weaknesses, showing how a few researchers have successfully linked IAC models to innovation processes found within the more advanced developing nations such as Korea. One of the chief contributions of IAC models is that many of them go substantially into the management of innovation and the decision-making processes within the firm. However, in general, there is a lack of empirical evidence to verify existing models, weak theoretical underpinnings and, in some cases, a failure to sufficiently recognise the diversity and unpredictability of innovation processes. The paper suggests how best to use innovation models and how to overcome some of the difficulties in future research. C1 Univ Sussex, CENTRIM, Brighton BN1 9QE, E Sussex, England. RP Hobday, M, Univ Sussex, CENTRIM, Brighton BN1 9QE, E Sussex, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2005 VL 17 IS 2 BP 121 EP 146 PG 26 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 944LH UT ISI:000230429400001 ER PT J AU Harper, JC Georghiou, L TI Foresight in innovation policy: Shared visions for a science park and business - University links in a city region SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB The paper describes the process and outcomes of an exercise that used the 'success scenario' methodology to develop a shared vision of the future of business-university linkages in the city region of Manchester. The aim was to link the strategies of the four universities in the area ( and in particular those of the two research universities that were in the process of merging) with the city's own self-vision of its future as a 'Knowledge Capital'. The resulting report presented a scenario of what success would look like in 2008 in five dimensions: infrastructure, human resources, university missions, inward investment, and networking. The exercise has had a significant impact on regional strategy. The paper considers the design factors involved in gaining this level of action commitment from a foresight activity. C1 Univ Manchester, Manchester Business Sch, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP Georghiou, L, Univ Manchester, Manchester Business Sch, Harold Hankins Bldg,Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. EM luke.georghiou@man.ac.uk CR *BRIT COUNC, 2003, ESS SOURC INF INN TE *HER MAJ TREAS DEP, 2004, SCI INN INV FRAM 200 EBERLEIN B, 1996, GOVERNANCE, V9, P351 FERGUSON R, 1995, PANACEA LET DOWN SCI GEORGHIOU L, 2002, RES INNOVATION POLIC GEORGHIOU L, 2005, CONTRIBUTION U KNOWL GODET M, 2002, FORESIGHT, V4, P14 HARPER JC, 2003, IMPROVING LINKS TENA LAMBERT R, 2003, LAMBERT REV BUSINESS LINK AN, 2003, INT J IND ORGAN, V21, P1323 MASSEY D, 1992, HIGH TECH FANTASIES MILES I, 2002, UNPUB SCENARIOS FORE WESTHEAD P, 1995, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V23, P345 NR 13 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2005 VL 17 IS 2 BP 147 EP 160 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 944LH UT ISI:000230429400002 ER PT J AU Linnarson, H TI Patterns of alignment in alliance structure and innovation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID STRATEGIC ALLIANCES; PRODUCT; COOPERATION; MANAGEMENT; FAILURE; FUTURE AB Alliances are becoming an increasingly common strategy for product development despite the intrinsic tension between alliance logic and innovation logic. This paper investigates the development of alliance structures during the exploration phase of the innovation process. Based on a study of five service development alliances in the telecom industry, three patterns are identified by which the alliance structure and the innovation are brought into alignment. Such alignment seems to be a necessary condition for the transition into commercialization. The patterns identified are: ( 1) Learning about the innovation may trigger changes in the alliance structure; ( 2) Learning about the innovation may suggest changes in the alliance structure that are impossible to implement, however, thus triggering changes in the innovation; ( 3) Planning the future alliance structure may suggest changes in the innovation. Based on these patterns, some conclusions and implications are identified, for both theory and practice. C1 Stockholm Sch Econ, Ctr Innovat & Operat Fenix Res Programme, S-11383 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Linnarson, H, Stockholm Sch Econ, Ctr Innovat & Operat Fenix Res Programme, S-11383 Stockholm, Sweden. EM Hakan.Linnarson@teliasonera.com CR ALLEN TJ, 1977, MANAGING FLOW INNOVA ARINO A, 1998, ORGAN SCI, V9, P306 BALDWIN CY, 2000, DESIGN RULES, P21 BAZERMAN MH, 1992, NEGOTIATING RATIONAL BIDAULT F, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P33 BRADACH JL, 1989, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V15, P97 BROWN JS, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P40 BROWN SL, 1995, ACAD MANAGE REV, V20, P343 BURTON RM, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P1461 CHILD J, 1972, SOCIOLOGY, V6, P1 CLARK KB, 1993, MANAGING NEW PRODUCT COOPER RG, 2002, RES TECHNOLOGY MANAG, V45 DAS TK, 2000, ORGAN SCI, V11, P77 DODGSON M, 1992, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V4, P227 DOZ YL, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P55 DOZ YL, 1998, ALLIANCE ADVANTAGE A DREJER A, 2002, EUROPEAN J INNOVATIO, V5, P4 DUSSAUGE P, 1999, COOPERATIVE STRATEGY GALBRAITH JR, 1982, ORG DYNAMICS WIN, P5 GARCIA R, 2002, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V19, P110 GULATI R, 1998, ADMIN SCI QUART, V43, P781 HAGEDOORN J, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P371 HAGEDOORN J, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P477 HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 KALE P, 2000, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V21, P217 KELLY MJ, 2002, R&D MANAGE, V32, P11 KOZA MP, 1998, ORGAN SCI, V9, P255 LORANGE P, 1992, STRATEGIC ALLIANCES MADHOK A, 1998, ORGAN SCI, V9, P326 MARCH JG, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P71 MILLSON MR, 1996, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V39, P41 RING PS, 1994, ACAD MANAGE REV, V19, P90 ROBERTS EB, 1988, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V31, P11 SANCHEZ R, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P63 SIVADAS E, 2000, J MARKETING, V64, P31 SPEKMAN RE, 1998, J MANAGE STUD, V35, P747 WOODWARD J, 1965, IND ORG THEORY PRACT NR 37 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2005 VL 17 IS 2 BP 161 EP 181 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 944LH UT ISI:000230429400003 ER PT J AU Bower, DJ TI From the 'Rhetoric of hope' to the 'patient-active paradigm' - Strategic positioning of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB In this paper overt repositioning of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in relation to patients and the wider public between 1990 and 2002 is analysed. It is proposed that this repositioning is linked to their success in gaining public acceptance of their use of genetics-based technologies to develop novel products. It is argued that this has helped biopharmaceutical companies to avoid the public stigmatisation that agrochemical companies incurred when they employed the same technologies to develop GM Crops. Implications are drawn for the ability of established and of new firms exploiting emerging technologies to position themselves strategically in the future in an arena that is ethically and culturally acceptable to the public and hence to investors. C1 Glasgow Caledonian Univ, Div Econ & Enterprise, Glasgow G4 0BA, Lanark, Scotland. RP Bower, DJ, Glasgow Caledonian Univ, Div Econ & Enterprise, Cowcaddens Rd, Glasgow G4 0BA, Lanark, Scotland. EM d.j.bower@gcal.ac.uk CR 2001, BRIT MED J, V305, P322 *DEP HLTH, 2000, STEM CELL RES MED PR *HL SEL COMM SCI T, 1993, 80I HL *HL, 1993, REG UK BIOT IND GLOB *SCST, 2002, DEV HUM GEN EMBR 4 R *UK CAB OFF, 2003, FIELD WORK WEIGH COS BARNES B, 1999, NATURE RISK RESPONSI BECK U, 1994, REFLEXIVE MODERNISAT BOWER DJ, 2003, R&D MANAGE, V33, P97 BURY M, 2001, SOCIOL HEALTH ILL, V23, P263 COOMBS R, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P261 DAVIS K, 1988, POWER MICROSCOPE FOUCAULT M, 1980, POWER KNOWLEDGE SELE GOTTWEIS H, 1998, PRIVATE SCI BIOTECHN, P105 JONES S, 2001, GENETICS MED REAL PR KRIMSKY S, 1998, PRIVATE SCI BIOTECHN LUPTON D, 1999, RISK MULKAY M, 1993, SOC STUD SCI, V23, P721 MULKAY M, 1997, EMBRYO RES DEBATE SC NETTLETON S, 1998, BODY EVERYDAY LIFE OMAHONY P, 1999, NATURE RISK RESPONSI PARRY S, 2003, NEW GENETICS SOC, V22 PETERSON A, 1996, NEW PUBLIC HLTH HLTH PORTER R, 1997, GREATEST BENEFIT MAN PORTER R, 2001, BODIES POLITIC DIS D PORTER R, 2004, BLOOD GUTS SHORT HIS PRIOR L, 2001, SOCIOL HEALTH ILL, V23, P251 ROBERTS H, 1985, PATIENT PATIENTS WOM SNEADER W, 1985, DRUG DISCOVERY EVOLU STIMSON G, 1975, GOING SEE DOCTOR CON TAYLOR C, 1989, SOURCES SELF MAKING THACKRAY A, 1998, PRIVATE SCI BIOTECHN, P81 WEBSTER A, 2002, CURR SOCIOL, V50, P443 WHITTAKER E, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P249 WRIGHT S, 1998, PRIVATE SCI BIOTECHN NR 35 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2005 VL 17 IS 2 BP 183 EP 204 PG 22 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 944LH UT ISI:000230429400004 ER PT J AU Aragon-Correa, JA Cordon-Pozo, E TI The influence of strategic dimensions and the environment on the introduction of Internet as innovation into small and medium-sized enterprises SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID ORGANIZATIONAL INNOVATION; INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY; PERFORMANCE; ADOPTION; UNCERTAINTY; COMMUNITY; VALIDITY; MODELS; MARKET; STYLE AB The expansion of the Internet has been spectacular, but only limited research has analysed how environmental and strategic variables simultaneously influence its organisational implementation and how small firms decide to adopt the use of the Internet. This study simultaneously examines the influence of three environmental dimensions ( hostility, complexity and dynamism), and the three strategic dimensions ( entrepreneurial, technological and administrative), upon the decision to introduce the use of the Internet into small business enterprises. We base our conclusions upon the data obtained from interviews with the managers of a sample of 94 small and medium-sized Spanish enterprises. Our results support a multidimensional view of environmental and strategic characteristics and show that all these variables constitute significant factors in deciding whether to introduce the Internet into company use. Logistic regression also shows the greater influence exerted by internal ( strategic) factors and size rather than by environmental factors. C1 Univ Granada, Fac Econ & Business, Granada, Spain. Rotterdam Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam, Netherlands. RP Aragon-Correa, JA, Univ Granada, Fac Econ & Business, Campus Cartuja S-N, Granada, Spain. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2005 VL 17 IS 2 BP 205 EP 218 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 944LH UT ISI:000230429400005 ER PT J AU Genba, K Ogawa, H Kodama, F TI Quantitative analysis of modularization in the automobile and PC industries SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID KNOWLEDGE; DIVISION; NETWORK; PRODUCT; LABOR AB Much research has been done on modularizing the PC industry and automobile industry. In the analysis of the effect of modularization in the PC and automobile industries, however, very little of this research has been quantitative. In this paper, we use the number of patent applications for PC and automobile components to analyze the modularization in the PC and automobile industry. We calculated a ratio of the number of patents applied for by PC/automobile manufacturers vis-a-vis the total number of patent applications for the components, and used it to quantitatively judge whether PC/automobile manufacturers still hold the initiative with respect to R&D. The analysis indicates that PC manufacturers no longer hold the R&D initiative but that automobile manufacturers still do for engine control systems. On the other hand, it indicates that automobile manufacturers no longer hold the R&D initiative on the safety and communication control systems. The paper finally verifies the correlation between modularization and R&D initiative by means of regression analysis. C1 Univ Tokyo, Dept Engn, Tokyo, Japan. Univ Tokyo, Res Ctr Adv Econ Engn, Tokyo, Japan. RP Genba, K, Komaba 4-6-1, Tokyo 1538904, Japan. EM kimi@fklab.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp CR *JAP AUT MAN ASS, 1970, AUT STAT YB *JAP RES SOC GASTR, 1996, REP TREATM RES STOM, P62 *MIN INT TRAD IND, 1970, MACH STAT YB ARORA A, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P523 BALDWIN CY, 1997, HARVARD BUS REV, V75, P84 BRUSONI S, 2001, IND CORP CHANGE, V10, P179 DYER JH, 2000, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V21, P345 FINE CH, 1998, CLOCKSPEED WINNING I GEMBA K, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P1165 GIKEN S, 2002, PRESENT SITUATION FO GRANSTRAND O, 1997, CALIF MANAGE REV, V39, P8 GROVE SA, 1996, ONLY PARANOID SURVIV KOGUT B, 2000, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V21, P405 KONO H, 1999, WORLD EC CRITICISM, V43, P49 LANGLOIS RN, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P297 MILGROM P, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P518 PINE JB, 1993, MASS CUSTOMIZATION F SANCHEZ R, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P63 TAKEISHI A, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V22, P404 TAKEISHI A, 2002, ORGAN SCI, V13, P321 NR 20 TC 0 PU ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD PI ABINGDON PA 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2005 VL 17 IS 2 BP 231 EP 245 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 944LH UT ISI:000230429400007 ER PT J AU Ghandour, FA Swartz, P Grenek, HM Roberts, EB TI E-business transformation via alliance clusters SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY AB The number of firms using alliances as part of their corporate venturing or market entry strategies has surged over the past decade. Three common reasons cited for pursuing alliances are technology convergence, market access and,alliance partners' complementary resources. This paper contrasts the alliance strategies of HP and IBM, two major competitors in electronic services (i.e. Internet-based 'e-service') businesses, using the Familiarity Matrix as a display tool to portray the strategies. Whereas the HP strategy is to attempt to establish its technology infrastructure as the standard e-services infrastructure on the Internet, IBM aims to position its IBM Global Services, rather than its technology, at the center of this ecosystem. C1 MIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA. Gapardis Inc, Miami, FL USA. State St Global Markets, Boston, MA USA. Xerox Global Serv, Webster, NY USA. RP Roberts, EB, MIT, Alfred P Sloan Sch Management, 50 Mem Dr,E52-535, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA. EM eroberts@mit.edu CR *CEO, 2000, HPS ANN SHAR M 29 FE *IBM, 1999, IBM TEAM SOFTW FIRMS *IBM, 2000, IBM ANN REP *IBM, 2000, IBM AR I2 FORM BROAD BENSIMON S, 1999, EXECUTIVE EXCELLENCE, V16, P9 FREIDHEIM CF, 1999, MANAG REV, V88, P46 ROBERTS EB, 1985, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V26, P3 ROBERTS EB, 2001, MIT SLOAN MANAGE REV, V43, P26 ROBERTS EB, 2001, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V44, P25 SEGIL L, 1999, EXECUTIVE EXCELLENCE, V16, P19 NR 10 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2004 VL 16 IS 4 BP 435 EP 455 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 891TZ UT ISI:000226605200001 ER PT J AU Van Wegberg, M TI Standardization process of systems technologies: Creating a balance between competition and cooperation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID NETWORK EXTERNALITIES; MODULARITY; TELECOMMUNICATIONS; COMPATIBILITY; COORDINATION; INDUSTRIES; STRATEGIES; INNOVATION; MARKETS; CHOICE AB Many firms are experimenting with how to standardize new technologies. They may use proprietary technologies for their products and services, and let them compete in the market selection. Alternatively, they can cooperate to jointly set a standard and experiment with combinations of market process and cooperation. If firms let the market decide, they can compete with technologies and need not invest time and effort in hammering out a standard. If they do incur the costs of negotiated standardization, they may enable end users to realize the benefits of standards. A hybrid standardization process combines the advantages of both market selection and negotiated decision making. This paper presents a contingency framework to identify conditions that will affect the preferred standardization process for vendors who in traduce new technologies. A major contingency that this paper points to is the systemic nature of technologies in information and communication technology industries. The more systemic the technology is (in a way to be clarified), the less likely that firms will establish a hybrid standardization process. One advantage of decomposing technology systems in smaller components (modules) is that this approach enables firms to combine market selection with negotiated selection of standards. C1 Univ Limburg, Fac Econ & Business Adm, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. RP Van Wegberg, M, Univ Limburg, Fac Econ & Business Adm, POB 616, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. EM mvanwegberg@yahoo.com CR ASATANI K, 1999, IEEE COMMUNICATIONS, P140 BALDWIN CY, 1997, HARVARD BUS REV, V75, P84 BESEN SM, 1989, CHANGING RULES TECHN, P177 BESEN SM, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P117 BESEN, 1992, J IND EC, V40, P55 BLIND K, 2001, INF ECON POLICY, V13, P439 CHEN MJ, 2002, MANAGERIAL DECISION, V23, P187 CHOI JP, 1996, EUROPEAN J POLITICAL, V12, P273 DAVID PA, 1996, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V20, P789 DAVID PA, 1996, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V20, P817 FARRELL J, 1988, RAND J ECON, V19, P235 FARRELL J, 1992, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, P1 FUNK JL, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P589 GANDAL N, 1995, REV ECON STAT, V77, P599 GARUD R, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P351 GARUD R, 1995, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V16, P93 GENSCHEL P, 1997, ORGAN STUD, V18, P603 GULATI R, 1995, ACAD MANAGE J, V38, P85 HEMPEL R, 1999, COMP STAND INTER, V21, P51 HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 HEYWOOD P, 1997, DATA COMMUN, P59 KATZ ML, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P424 KOGUT B, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P77 LANGE R, 2001, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V12, P29 LANGLOIS RN, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P297 LANGLOIS RN, 2002, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V49, P19 LINT O, 2003, TECHNOVATION, V23, P297 MANGEMATIN V, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P441 MESSICA A, 2002, MANAGERIAL DECISION, V23, P371 MORRIS CR, 1993, HARVARD BUS REV, P8 MORRIS CR, 1993, HARVARD BUS REV, V71, P86 POLYZOIS C, 1999, IEEE NETWORK MAY, P58 SCHILLING MA, 2000, ACAD MANAGE REV, V25, P312 SCHILLING MA, 2001, ACAD MANAGE J, V44, P1149 SCHMIDT SK, 1998, COORDINATING TECHNOL SHERIF MH, 2003, J IT STANDARDS STAND, V1, P19 SHURMER M, 1995, J EVOLUTIONARY EC, V5, P119 TASSEY G, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P587 VERCOULEN F, 1998, STANDARD SELECTION M NR 39 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2004 VL 16 IS 4 BP 457 EP 478 PG 22 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 891TZ UT ISI:000226605200002 ER PT J AU Hemphill, TA TI The strategic management of trade secrets in technology-based firms SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INFORMATION; LAW; ECONOMICS; PROPERTY; RIGHTS; PATENT AB The importance of trade secrets to the effective strategic management of technology-based firms can make the difference between economic success and failure for significant new product lines, or even the firm itself This article proposes the conceptual outlines of a framework addressing the strategic management of trade secrets. The author identifies three environments that strongly influence strategy formulation (legal and market) and strategy implementation (organizational). A conceptual framework for trade secret strategy formulation is developed, oft ring a logical approach to reaching a managerial choice of trade secrecy over other forms of intellectual property protection. Discussion of trade secret strategy implementation invokes all emphasis on managerial control structures and mechanisms, focusing on the use of the trade secret audit, the identification of components of an implementation strategy (e.g., employee education, controlling physical and electronic access, and monitoring competitors), and an ever vigilant defense of trade secret protection pursued in the courts. C1 George Washington Univ, Sch Business, Dept Strateg Management & Publ Policy, Washington, DC 20052 USA. RP Hemphill, TA, George Washington Univ, Sch Business, Dept Strateg Management & Publ Policy, 710 21St St NW,Monroe 203, Washington, DC 20052 USA. EM tomhemphill@comcast.net CR 1985, NAT C COMM UN STAT L 2002, EE TIMES 1205 2003, OPEN SOURCE INITIATI *AM LAW I, 1939, RESTATEMENT TORTS *AM LAW I, 1995, REST 3 UNP COMP, CH4 *NAT COUNT CTR, 1997, EC ESPIONAGE ACT 199 *NAT COUNT EX, 2003, 200310006 NCIX NAT C *WIPO, 2002, WIPO WORLD INT PROP, P17 BACHELDER JE, 2000, NY LAW J 0329 BLAIR MW, 2000, LOS ANGELES TIM 1113, B1 BLAIR MW, 2001, UNSEEN WEALTH REPORT BRINSON JD, 2000, INTERNET LAW BUSINES CHEUNG SNS, 1982, ECON INQ, V20, P40 COHEN WM, 2004, FTC DPK JEAR COMP IN ELIAS SR, 2003, PATENT COPYRIGHT TRA FAULKNER DO, 2003, OXFORD HDB STRATEGY, V1, P132 FRIEDMAN DD, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P61 HALLIGAN RM, SORRY STATE TRADE SE HALLIGAN RM, 2003, TRADE SECRETS SOFTWA HALLIGAN RM, 2003, WHAT TRADE SECRET TR HAMILTON DP, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P23 HILL CWL, 2004, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P8 HORSTMANN I, 1985, J POLIT ECON, V93, P837 JENSEN JC, 2001, IND PHYS OCT, P31 KAHN B, 1990, TECHNOLOGY REV APR, P53 KITCH EW, 1980, J LEGAL STUD, V9, P683 LERNER J, 1994, UNPUB IMPORTANCE TRA LERNER J, 2003, INTRO EC TRADE SECRE LEVIN C, 1997, NYLJ 0102, P5 MAGRI KA, 2003, INT ASPECTS TRADE S PERENS B, 1997, OPEN SOURCE DEFINITI RONDE T, 2001, J ECON MANAGE STRAT, V10, P391 SCOTCHMER S, 1990, RAND J ECON, V21, P131 ZABOJNIK J, 2002, INT ECON REV, V43, P831 NR 34 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2004 VL 16 IS 4 BP 479 EP 494 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 891TZ UT ISI:000226605200003 ER PT J AU Ivory, C TI Client, user and architect interactions in construction: Implications for analysing innovative outcomes from user-producer interactions in projects SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID DISCOURSES AB Three case studies of user/client-architect interaction, and their implications for an understanding of the design and innovation process in capital goods projects, are considered in this paper. The studies presented include a major 'City Challenge'-funded social housing development programme in the UK, a housing co-operative-driven workplace and housing scheme associated with the same programme and a new building for the business school of a major UK university. Reflecting upon existing literature on user-producer relationships, the paper draws two key conclusions from the case studies that add to this literature. The first points to the need to account for the broader strategic motivations of agents within projects. Two of the case studies describe how innovation driven by the architects involved exceeded the original requirements of the client, and in so doing reveal architects to be oriented toward non-project specific goals. The second conclusion focuses on the user/client and points to the importance of a strong and coherent 'customer vision' in 'enabling' the client to determine project outcomes more fully. Following from these conclusions, it is argued that an analysis of client/user-producer interactions needs to account more fully for the effects of longer-term strategic planning by agents. C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Ivory, C, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. EM c.j.ivory@ncl.ac.uk CR ATKINSON R, 1999, URBAN STUD, V36, P59 BALL M, 1988, REBUILDING CONSTRUCT BARRETT P, 1999, BETTER CONSTRUCTIN B BOWLEY M, 1966, BRIT BUILDING IND 4 BRYMAN A, 1987, RES SOCIOLOGY ORG, V5, P253 CHERNS AB, 1984, CONSTRUCTION MANAGEM, V2, P177 EGAN J, 1998, RETHINKING CONSTRUCT FREEMAN C, 1989, EC IND INNOVATION GARDINER P, 1985, DESIGN STUDIES, V6, P7 GUY S, 2000, SOC ENERGY BUILDINGS IVE G, 1996, RESPONDING LATHAM VI MACKAY H, 2000, SOC STUD SCI, V30, P737 MILLER R, 1995, IND CORP CHANGE, V4, P363 NAM CH, 1997, CONSTRUCTION MANAGEM, V15, P259 REICH Y, 1996, DESIGN STUDIES, V17, P165 ROBERTS J, 2000, KNOWLEDGE INNOVATION SLAUGHTER ES, 2000, BUILD RES INF, V28, P2 SUCHMAN L, 1994, COMPUTER SUPPORTED C, V2, P21 VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOXATION WALKER A, 2000, CONSTRUCTION MANAGEM, V18, P37 WOOLGAR S, 1991, SOC MONSTERS ESSAYS WYNNE B, 1988, SOC STUD SCI, V18, P147 NR 22 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2004 VL 16 IS 4 BP 495 EP 508 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 891TZ UT ISI:000226605200004 ER PT J AU Smith, DJ Rogers, MF TI Technology strategy and innovation: The use of derivative strategies in the aerospace industry SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID FIRMS AB Strategy has become an increasingly important theme within the management of innovation. This is reflected in the increasing amount of attention given to topics such as technology strategy within the innovation literature. However research into technology strategy has tended to focus on technology acquisition rather than technology exploitation. This paper focuses on one often neglected way in which companies can exploit the technological resources at their disposal, namely through the use of a derivative strategy where new technology is combined with old products or parts of old products in order to develop new products. The paper explores this type of strategy by means of a case study from the commercial jet engine sector of the aerospace industry. The case study provides an opportunity not only to explore the nature of derivative strategies in detail it also highlights the benefits, both direct and indirect, to be gained from this type of strategy as a means of exploiting an organisation's technological resources. The paper shows how a derivative strategy can contribute to the broader strategic goals of companies in technology based industries through strategies designed to ensure the most effective utilisation of the technology base. C1 Nottingham Trent Univ, Nottingham Business Sch, Nottingham NG1 4BU, England. RP Smith, DJ, Nottingham Trent Univ, Nottingham Business Sch, Burton St, Nottingham NG1 4BU, England. EM David.Smith02@ntu.ac.uk CR *HOUS COMM, 1993, 3 REP TRAD IND COMM, V1, P15 *ROLLS ROYC PLC, 2001, ROLLS ROYC ANN REP 2 *ROLLS ROYC PLC, 2002, ROLS ROYC ANN REP 20, P7 ASHMOLE J, 1983, ROLLS ROYCE MAG 1219, P21 BONACCORSI A, 2000, LEM WORKING PAPER SE, V4 BOTHAM R, 2001, SCOTTICH AEROSPACE A BOWER DJ, 1993, INT BUSINESS REV, V2, P83 BROWN M, 1994, MANAGEMENT TODAY DEC, P50 CHRISTENSEN CM, 1997, COOPERATIVE STRATEG CLARKE K, 1995, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V7, P169 DAWSON VP, 1995, AIRSHIPS AIRBUS HIST, P137 DODGSON M, 1991, BRIT J MANAGE, V2, P133 DOGANIS R, 2002, FLYING OFF COURSE EC FORESTIERWALKER C, 1997, AEROSPACE DEFENCE MO, P17 GODDARD K, 2000, ROLLS ROYCE TAY ENGI GOLLEY J, 1996, GENESIS JET F WHITTL, P205 GRANSTAND O, 1990, TECHNOLOGY INVESTMEN GRANT RM, 1991, CALIF MANAGE REV, V33, P114 GUNSTON B, 1989, ROLLS ROYCE AERO GUNSTON B, 1995, WORLD ENCY AERO ENG HAYWARD K, 1983, GOVT CIVIL AEROSPACE, P203 HAYWARD K, 1986, INT COLLABORATION CI HAYWARD K, 1989, BRIT AIRCRAFT IND HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 HEPPENHEIMER TA, 1995, TURBULENT SKIES HIST HOOKE RS, 1984, NOT MUCH ENG, P31 KAIVANTO K, 1996, 206 WARW BUS SCH RES KEEBLE D, 1997, REG STUD, V31, P281 KINNEAR J, 1986, ROLLS ROYCE MAG 0930, P22 MOWERY DC, 1987, ALLIANCE POLITICS EC, P2 PHILLIPA A, 1994, BIZJETS TECHNOLOGY M PRENCIPE A, 2001, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V5, P310 PUGH P, 2000, MAGIC NAME 1, P62 PUGH P, 2001, MAGIC NAME 2, P297 PUGH P, 2002, MAGIC NAME 3, P69 REED A, 1973, BRIT AIRCRAFT IND WH, P122 ROGERS MF, 1984, PRINC BERT S 7 9 NOV ROTHWELL R, 1989, R&D MANAGE, V19, P147 ROTHWELL R, 1990, DESIGN MANAGMENT, P282 ROWE BH, 1991, NAT INTERESTS AGE GL, P95 RUGGLES PC, 1986, AEROSPACE NOV, P15 SPINARDI G, 2002, TECHNOLOGY ANAL STAT, V14, P385 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 TREADWELL TC, 2000, IRONWORKS STROY GRUM NR 44 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2004 VL 16 IS 4 BP 509 EP 527 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 891TZ UT ISI:000226605200005 ER PT J AU Thumm, N TI Strategic patenting in biotechnology SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Patents can be used by their owners in a variety of strategic ways in the market place that do not necessarily conform with the original idea of patents us a remedy against market failure. More patenting does not lead to more innovation in all cases. This article looks at the relevance of patents and their strategic uses in the biotechnology industry. The article considers the different motives for applying for patents and various strategies. Theoretical considerations are made based on empirical findings from a survey of the Swiss biotechnology industry carried out in 2003. The empirical data confirm that patents for biotechnological inventions are important as an incentive for investment in R&D and that patents are an efficient tool for protecting biotechnological inventions. Strategic patenting is not very common in Switzerland and there are no signs for an abusive level of strategic patenting. C1 Swiss Fed Inst Intellectual Property, CH-3003 Bern, Switzerland. RP Thumm, N, Swiss Fed Inst Intellectual Property, Einsteinstr 2, CH-3003 Bern, Switzerland. EM nikolaus.thumm@ipi.ch CR *EUR COMM, 2002, TECHN POL TEL SECT M *SWISS FED I INT P, 2003, RES PAT BIOT SURV SW COHEN WM, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P1349 DRAHOS P, 1996, PHILOS INTELLECTUAL, P136 DUNFORD R, 1987, ADM SCI Q, V32, P512 ERNST, 2003, EUROPEAN BIOTECHNOLO, P12 GEROSKY P, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE, P91 HALL BH, 2001, RAND J ECON, V32, P101 HETTINGER EC, 1989, PHILOS PUBLIC AFF, V18, P31 KORTUM S, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P1 SCHANKERMAN M, 2003, OECD C IPR INN EC PE THUMM N, 2000, INTELLECTUAL PROPERT VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION, P48 NR 13 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2004 VL 16 IS 4 BP 529 EP 538 PG 10 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 891TZ UT ISI:000226605200006 ER PT J AU Uri, ND Brown, K TI Cable service and its implicit marginal valuation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID HEDONIC PRICE INDEXES; DEMAND; INDUSTRY; MARKETS AB The objective is to estimate the implicit marginal value of channel offerings by cable systems in the USA. Hedonic analysis is a convenient framework in which to explore the relationship between the price of cable service and the channels offered by a cable system. Two separate hedonic equations are estimated-one for the price of analog cable service and one for the price of digital cable service. With regard to the price of analog cable service, the implicit marginal valuation is statistically significant and positive for just 15 of 106 channel offerings and negative for seven channels. For the price of digital cable service, the implicit marginal valuation is statistically significant and positive for just eleven of 105 channel offerings and negative for five channels. The results suggest that a subscriber's utility would be enhanced by a pricing structure different from the typical approach used by cable systems today of offering a bundled package consisting of several channels. One alternative is to allow consumers to subscribe to just those programming services for which they have a positive implicit marginal value (i.e. an a la carte pricing structure). C1 FCC, Media Bur, Ind Anal Div, Washington, DC 20554 USA. RP Uri, ND, FCC, Media Bur, Ind Anal Div, 445 12th St SW, Washington, DC 20554 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2004 VL 16 IS 4 BP 539 EP 560 PG 22 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 891TZ UT ISI:000226605200007 ER PT J AU Golden, W Powell, P TI Inter-organisational information systems as enablers of organisational flexibility SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID ELECTRONIC DATA INTERCHANGE; STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY; PERSPECTIVE; TECHNOLOGY; INDUSTRY; AUTOMATION; ADVANTAGE; 1990S; FIRM; EDI AB Many organisations seek flexibility, but its attainment is fraught with problems. Research argues that information systems (IS) can provide flexibility This paper explores the relationship between one type of IS, inter-organisational systems (IOS) and flexibility. The first element of the research demonstrates that organisations do obtain flexibility from using IOS. In particular, IOS improve efficiency, responsiveness, versatility and robustness. Subsequently the research finds some support for the proposition that the technologies used for IOS provide flexibility. Certain organisational characteristics have a positive relationship with flexibility from IOS. These include (i) adopting IOS for offensive competitive reasons, (ii) integrating IOS planning with IS planning, (iii) integrating IOS planning with business planning, (iv) initiating adoption of IOS, (v) integrating IOS with internal IS software, (vi) possessing superior internal IT expertise, (vii) operating in a competitive environment and (viii) longevity of IOS use. The implications of these findings for managers and researchers are discussed. C1 Univ Bath, Sch Management, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. NUI, Dept Accountancy & Finance, Cork, Ireland. RP Powell, P, Univ Bath, Sch Management, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. EM mnspp@management.bath.ac.uk CR AAKER DA, 1984, J BUS STRAT, V5, P74 ADLER PS, 1988, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V30, P34 ANDERSON S, 1993, MEASURING MANUFACTUR ANSOFF I, 1984, IMPLANTING STRATEGIC AVISON D, 1965, J MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, V7, P43 BAHRAMI H, 1995, CALIF MANAGE REV, V37, P62 BAKER R, 1991, WHAT MANAGERS NEED K BAKOS JY, 1986, MIS QUART, V10, P107 BARRETT S, 1982, MIS Q, P93 BARRETT SS, 1986, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V3, P5 BJORNANDERSEN I, 1995, EDI EUROPE, P299 BOLWIJN PT, 1990, LONG RANGE PLANN, V23, P44 BOYNTON AC, 1993, CALIFORNIA MANAG WIN, P58 BROUSSEAU E, 1994, INFORMATION EC POLIC, V6, P319 CARLSSON B, 1989, INT J IND ORGAN, V7, P179 CASH JI, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P134 CLARKE R, 1992, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V1, P143 COOKE P, 1988, ENVIRON PLANN D, V6, P281 COX B, 1994, P 2 EUR C INF SYST N CUNNINGHAM C, 1993, INT J INFORM MANAGE, V13, P3 DELEEUW ACJ, 1996, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V24, P121 EDWARDS D, 1987, ELECT DATA INTERCHAN EISENHARDT KM, 1989, ACAD MANAGE REV, V14, P532 ELORANTA E, 1995, PROD PLAN CONTROL, V6, P238 EMMELHAINZ MA, 1988, J BUSINESS LOGISTICS, V9, P55 EPPINK DJ, 1978, LONG RANGE PLANN, V11, P9 EVANS JS, 1991, J MANAGE STUD, V28, P69 FEENY D, 1988, INFORMATION MANAGEME, P98 FYNES B, 1993, IBAR, V14, P16 GABLE GG, 1994, EUROPEAN J INFORMATI, V3, P112 GALLIERS RD, 1995, J INFORM TECHNOL, V10, P149 GOLDEN W, 1996, P 4 EUR C INF SYST L, P1133 HANSEN JV, 1989, MIS QUART, V13, P403 HARRISON B, 1994, LEAN MEAN HILL C, 1991, EDI COMPETITIVE EDGE, P63 HOLLAND C, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V13, P539 HORLUCK J, 1994, INT J INFORM MANAGE, V14, P330 JOHNSTON HR, 1988, MIS Q, V12, P153 JOHNSTON HR, 1988, MIS Q, V12, P37 KAMBIL A, 1994, J MIS, V10, P59 KAVAN C, 1990, P 23 HAW INT C SYST, P192 KERLINGER FN, 1986, FDN BEHAV RES KLEIN BH, 1984, PRICES WAGES BUSINES KLEIN S, 1992, P 25 HAW INT C SYST, V4, P369 KRCMAR H, 1993, 49 U HOH, P1 KRIJNEN HG, 1979, LONG RANGE PLANN, V12, P63 LUCAS HC, 1994, J ORG COMPUTING, V4, P155 MACKAY DR, 1993, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V2, P243 MALONE TW, 1992, P HAW INT C SYST SCI, V4, P636 MCFARLAN FW, 1984, HARVARD BUS REV, V62, P98 MCNURLIN BC, 1987, EDP ANAL, V25, P1 MONTEIRO L, 1996, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V5, P169 NYGAARDANDERSEN S, 1994, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V3, P191 OPPENHEIM A, 1966, QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN PIORE M, 1984, 2 IND DIVIDE PRAGER KP, 1996, INFORM SYST MGMT FAL, P41 PREMKUMAR G, 1994, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V11, P157 RAYMOND L, 1996, J ORG COMP ELECT COM, V6, P161 REEKERS N, 1994, INT J INFORM MANAGE, V14, P344 RIGGINS FJ, 1994, MANAGE SCI, V40, P984 ROCHESTER JB, 1989, I-S ANAL, V27, P1 SABHERWAL R, 1994, EUROPEAN J INFORMATI, V3, P268 SAYER A, 1989, INT J URBAN REGIONAL, V13, P666 SCALA S, 1993, INFORM MANAGE, V25, P85 SOKOL PK, 1991, EDI COMPETITIVE EDGE STARKEY I, 1991, BRIT J MANAGE, V2, P165 SWATMAN P, 1991, MANAGING INFORMATION, P105 SWATMAN PMC, 1992, INFORMATION SOC, V8, P169 SWATMAN PMC, 1994, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V3, P41 TRACY JJ, 1991, CORPORATE CONTRO MAR, P33 UPTON DM, 1994, CALIF MANAGE REV, V36, P72 VENKATRAMAN N, 1994, INFORMATION TECHNOLO, P184 VENKATRAMAN N, 1994, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V35, P73 VOLBERDA HW, 1996, ORGAN SCI, V7, P359 WALLACE R, 1988, BRIT ACCOUNTING REV, V20, P131 WEBSTER J, 1995, J STRATEGIC INF SYST, V4, P31 NR 76 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 16 IS 3 BP 299 EP 325 PG 27 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 868ED UT ISI:000224896000001 ER PT J AU Rush, H Bessant, J Lees, S TI Assessing the effectiveness of technology policy - A long-term view SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION AB Innovation policy is increasingly concerned with mobilising abroad range of resources to support the development of firm-level technological capability. It is aimed at dealing with 'market failure', which arises when firms are confronted with technological challenges in which they lack the necessary experience or resources. Both internal agency and independent evaluation of such innovation policies are routinely undertaken but most are conducted during the lifetime of the programmes or soon after they have ended. There are few examples of such evaluations being able to take a long-term perspective. This paper explores the impacts of a UK government technology programme on the process and product application of microelectronic technologies (MAP) that ran between 1978 and 1986. Via interviews with a sample of firms who participated in scheme, the research explored their subsequent use of microelectronics, government support schemes and expert consultants. The study argues for more regular long-term reviews of technology promoting schemes as an aid to learning and capability enhancement in policy-making. C1 Brighton Univ, Ctr Res Innovat Management CENTRIM, Freeman Ctr, Brighton BN1 9QE, E Sussex, England. Cranfield Sch Management, Bedford, England. RP Rush, H, Brighton Univ, Ctr Res Innovat Management CENTRIM, Freeman Ctr, Univ Sussex Campus, Brighton BN1 9QE, E Sussex, England. EM h.j.rush@bton.ac.uk CR ARNOLD E, 1998, DEV FIRMS TECHNOLOGI ARNOLD E, 1998, METHODS EVALUATION P ARNOLD E, 2000, ENHANCING POLICY I S BELL M, 1993, IND CORP CHANGE, V2, P157 BENNETT S, 1985, REV MAP C SCHEME BESSANT J, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P97 BESSANT J, 1997, FINAL REPORT EVALUAT BESSANT J, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P601 BESSANT J, 2000, POLICIES BUILDING TE BEST M, 2001, NEW COMPETITIVE ADVA COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 DODGSON M, 1996, EFFECTIVE INNOVATION DOWNING RC, 2001, THESIS U PLYMOUTH FIGUEIREDO PN, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P73 KIM L, 1997, IMITATION INNOVATION LALL S, 1992, WORLD DEV, V20, P165 LUNDVALL B, 1990, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT NORTHCOTT J, 1985, PROMOTING INNOVATION NORTHCOTT J, 1986, PROMOTING INNOVATION, V2 ROTHWELL R, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P221 SENKER J, 1994, R D MAN C MANCH BUS SKAUG E, 1992, BRIEF DESCRIPTION BU TIDD J, 2001, MANAGING INNOVATION VICKERY G, 1989, GOVT POLICIES DIFFUS NR 24 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 16 IS 3 BP 327 EP 342 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 868ED UT ISI:000224896000002 ER PT J AU Parker, R TI Explaining variations in the knowledge economy in three small wealthy countries SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TRIPLE-HELIX; INNOVATION; SYSTEM; POLICY AB At a broad level, it has been shown that different institutional contexts, policy regimes and business systems affect the kinds of activities in which a nation specialises. This paper is concerned with the way in which different national business systems affect the nature of participation of a nation in the knowledge economy. The paper seeks to explain cross-national variations in the knowledge economy in the Australia, Denmark and Sweden with reference to dominant characteristics of the business system. Although Australia, Denmark and Sweden are all small wealthy countries, they each have quite distinctive business systems. Australia has been regarded as a variant of the competitive business system and has generally been described as an entrepreneurial economy with a large small firm population. In contrast Sweden has a coordinated business system that has favoured large industrial firms. The Danish variant of the coordinated model, with its well-developed vocational training system, is distinguishable by its large population of networked small and medium size enterprises. The three countries also differ significantly on two dimensions of participation in the knowledge economy. First, there is cross-national variation in patterns of specialisation in knowledge intensive industries and services. Second, the institutional infrastructure of the knowledge economy (or the existing stock of knowledge and competence in the economy, the potential for generation and diffusion a new knowledge and the capacity for commercialisation of new ideas) differs across the three countries. This paper seeks to explain variations in these two dimensions of the knowledge economy with reference to characteristics of the business system in the three countries. C1 Univ Queensland, Sch Polit Sci & Int Studies, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. RP Parker, R, Univ Queensland, Sch Polit Sci & Int Studies, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. EM rachel.parker@uq.edu.au CR *OECD, 1994, EMPL OUTL *OECD, 1997, EMPL OUTL *OECD, 1999, SCI TECHN IND SCOR B *OECD, 2000, SCI TECHN IND SCOR B *OECD, 2001, OECD FIG, P36 *OECD, 2001, SCI TECHN IND SCOR K *OECD, 2002, OECD INF TECHN OUTL, P30 *OECD, 2002, OECD SCI TECHN IND O, P286 *UN, 1998, INT YB IND STAT *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP, P238 ARCHIBUGI D, 1993, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V5, P99 ARCHIBUGI D, 1998, TRADE GROWTH TECHNIC AUDRETSCH D, 2001, IND CORP CHANGE, V10, P25 BAYGAN G, 2000, STI WORKING PAPERS, P14 BELL S, 1997, UNGOVERNING EC POLIT BENNER M, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P291 BENNER M, 2003, ACTA SOCIOL, V46, P132 BUUK W, 1999, EUROPEAN PLANNING ST, V7, P81 CARLSSON B, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM DAHL MS, 2002, DRUID SUMM C IND DYN DAVERI F, 2002, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V18, P345 DREJER I, 1999, IND INNOVATION, V6, P171 EDQUIST C, 1997, SYSTEMS INNOVATION T, P1 EDQUIST C, 2001, INNOVATION EMPLOYMEN ELIASSON G, 2000, J EVOL ECON, V10, P217 ETZKOWITZ H, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P109 FREEMAN C, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P5 FURMAN JL, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P899 GUERSENT O, 2001, REG STUD, V35, P163 HOLLINGSWORTH JR, 1997, CONT CAPITALISM EMBE LAM A, 2002, DRUID SUMM C 2002 CO, P24 LAM A, 2002, DRUID SUMM C 2002 CO, P24 LUNDVALL B, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT NELSON R, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST POHJOLA M, 2002, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V18, P380 REYNOLDS P, 2000, GLOBAL ENTREPRENEURS RYCROFT RW, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P21 SMITH K, 2000, DRUID SUMM C LEARN E, P13 SOSKICE D, 1999, CONTINUITY CHANGE CO VERHEUL I, 2002, ENTREPRENEURSHIP DET, P11 WHITLEY R, 2000, ORGAN STUD, V21, P871 WHITLEY R, 2000, ORGAN STUD, V21, P885 YONGTAE P, 1999, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V11, P541 ZYSMAN J, 1994, IND CORP CHANGE, V3, P261 NR 44 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 16 IS 3 BP 343 EP 366 PG 24 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 868ED UT ISI:000224896000003 ER PT J AU Trott, P Hoecht, A TI Enterprise resource planning and the price of efficiency: The trade off between business efficiency and the innovative capability of firms SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY; SYSTEMS; ORGANIZATIONS; KNOWLEDGE; ERP AB Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) business software offers the integration of business functions and can reduce data collection and processing duplication efforts. It has become one of the most successful products in the world. For many firms such as Microsoft, Owens-Corning, ICI, UBS and Procter & Gamble, it has changed the way they work (see Gartner, How Procter & Gamble runs its global business on SAP, CS-15-3473, Research Note, 25 February 2002). The market leaders in this highly lucrative business-to-business market are SAP, Oracle, Baan and PeopleSoft. This paper reviews the ERP and innovation management literature in order to shed light on the potential problems that may exist in rigid ERP systems. It seems there is increasing evidence that firms Jail to obtain the benefits of these investments within the anticipated timeframes (B. dos Santos and L. Sussman, Improving the return on IT investment: the productivity paradox, International Journal of Information Management, vol. 20, No. 6, 2000, pp. 429-440). Moreover, and possibly of greater concern is the affect on the firm's innovative ability Especially in some creative working environments where previously autonomous and creative individuals are non, being restricted to what's on offer via 'pull-down' menus. C1 Univ Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business Sch, Portsmouth PO1 3DE, Hants, England. RP Trott, P, Univ Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business Sch, Portsmouth PO1 3DE, Hants, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 16 IS 3 BP 367 EP 379 PG 13 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 868ED UT ISI:000224896000004 ER PT J AU De Bruijn, EJ Steenhuis, HJ TI Freedom of choice in technology strategy? An analysis of technology strategy in the large commercial aircraft industry SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Many companies experience difficult situations as a result of their selected strategy. Strategic management theories implicitly assume that companies have a free choice in setting their strategy. Hence, when companies experience different situations this is because of management inadequacy. It is questionable whether companies always have a free choice. This research examines this issue by examining the new product strategies of the two main competitors in the commercial aircraft industry. The development of the A380 aircraft was selected to determine to what extent the companies had a choice in setting their product development strategies. The conclusion is that neither has the alleged freedom for setting its strategy. Implications of this finding are that the strategy theory needs to be adjusted for this choice issue, and that management should not always be held fully responsible for the developing events. C1 Eastern Washington Univ, Coll Business & Publ Adm, Dept Management, Spokane, WA 99202 USA. Univ Twente, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. RP Steenhuis, HJ, Eastern Washington Univ, Coll Business & Publ Adm, Dept Management, 668 N Riverpoint Blvd,Suite A, Spokane, WA 99202 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 16 IS 3 BP 381 EP 393 PG 13 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 868ED UT ISI:000224896000005 ER PT J AU van der Vleuten, E TI Infrastructures and societal change. A view from the Large Technical Systems field SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Infrastructural and societal changes intertwine in multiple ways. This makes the societal implications of infrastructural projects difficult to assess and anticipate. Yet in present day network societies this task is particularly urgent. This paper first identifies two positions that tend to monopolize and deadlock debates. Next it examines two decades of research in the Large Technical System (LTS) research field for alternative approaches to this issue,. before finally suggesting distinguishing between the four increasingly indirect moments of (co-) construction of infrastructures and societies. These may be related causally, but also add their own moments of contingency, agency, and choice. C1 Tech Univ Eindhoven, Dept Technol Management, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. RP van der Vleuten, E, Tech Univ Eindhoven, Dept Technol Management, Room IPO 2-28,POB 513, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 16 IS 3 BP 395 EP 414 PG 20 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 868ED UT ISI:000224896000006 ER PT J AU Todt, O Munoz, E de los Monteros, JE Diaz, VM TI Biotechnology development in Spain: A change of paradigm? SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB This article presents a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Spanish biotechnology sector, including its scientific, business, policy and social aspects. The study differentiates two sub-sectors, considered to be the most representative: Biopharma and Agrofood The results show that biotechnology development in Spain has entered a new phase. Traditionally, research and development in Spain followed an unstructured path built around regional spaces and driven by factors and influences external to Spain. However, the emergence of a fast-growing sector of spin-off companies from the public research system, specifically in the Biopharma sector, points to a change of model of development of the industry, on the national as well as the regional level. The data also show the key role which public policy plays in creating a suitable framework for innovation and point to the need of analyzing the influence of social and cultural factors on the development of the biotechnology sector. C1 Spanish Natl Res Council CSIC, Inst Philosophy, Technol & Soc Dept, Madrid 28014, Spain. RP Todt, O, Spanish Natl Res Council CSIC, Inst Philosophy, Technol & Soc Dept, C Alfonso XII,18, Madrid 28014, Spain. EM todt@iesam.csic.es CR *AEPC, 2003, CIENC TECN 2002 AN 2 *ERNST YOUNG, 2001, 8 ERNST YOUNG *EUR COMM, 2002, EUR 58 0 EUR BIOT *EUR COMM, 2003, SCOR BOARD BIOT INN *FUND GEN, 2004, AV EST ESTR BIOT ESP *OECD, 2002, BIOT IND PUBL POL, P8 ALBERT A, 1997, SPANISH RES GROUPS E DIAZ V, 2001, SISTEMA, P87 DIAZ V, 2002, J BIOTECHNOL, V98, P25 EDQUIST C, 1997, SYSTEMS INNOVATION T LUJAN JL, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P383 LUNDVALL B, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MOLERO J, 2001, 2801 SUSS EUR I MOLERO J, 2002, CUADERNOS EC GRANADA, V14, P85 MUNOZ E, 2001, QUARK OCT MUNOZ E, 2001, RES INNOVATION POLIT, P359 MUNOZ E, 2004, 104 AECYA UPC NELSON R, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST SENKER J, 1999, INVENTORY PUBLIC BIO, V1 SENKER J, 1999, INVENTORY PUBLIC BIO, V2 SENKER J, 1999, INVENTORY PUBLIC BIO, V3 TODT O, 2000, J RISK RES, V3, P237 TODT O, 2004, SAFETY SCI, V42, P143 VANBEUZEKOM B, 2001, OECD STI WORKING PAP NR 24 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2004 VL 16 IS 3 BP 415 EP 429 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 868ED UT ISI:000224896000007 ER PT J AU Schneider, MT Schade, B Grupp, H TI Innovation process 'fuel cell vehicle': What strategy promises to be most successful? SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID ADVANTAGE; MODEL AB Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers' strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure. C1 Univ Heidelberg, Interdisciplinary Inst Environm Econ, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany. Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Econ Policy Res, D-76128 Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Schneider, MT, Univ Heidelberg, Interdisciplinary Inst Environm Econ, Bergheimer Str 20, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany. EM schneider@eco.uni-heidelberg.de CR *GERM AG ENV CONC, 1999, PROSP ENV, P3 *GERM MIN TRAFF HO, 2001, SCI EN STRAT TRAFF S *GOV PROC, 2001, GOVT PROCUREMENT, V9, P1 ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 ANSOFF HI, 1967, HARVARD BUS REV, V45, P71 ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 BACKHAUS K, 1990, MARKETING IND GOODS BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BASS FM, 1978, 660 PURD U KRAM GRAD BLACKMAN A, TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL, V3, P75 CARPENTER GS, 1989, J MARKETING RES, V26, P285 ERDMANN G, 2000, SOON CHEAP EC FUEL C, P3 EYRE N, 2002, FUELLING ROAD TRANSP FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FORRESTER JW, 1972, PRINCIPLES SYSTEMS FOURT LA, 1960, J MARKETING, V24, P34 GOLDER PN, 1993, J MARKETING RES, V30, P158 GOLDER T, J MARKETING GRAHL MK, 2000, THESIS BERLIN, P16 GROSSE J, 1998, BATT FUEL CELL HYBR GRUPP CH, 1998, FDN EC INNOVATION JORISSEN L, 2000, INNOVATION PROCESS I, P44 KATZ ML, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P424 LEWIS RA, 2000, FUEL CELL 2000, P350 LIPMAN TE, 1996, INT J VEHICLE DES, V17, P562 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MEFFERT H, 2000, MARKETING, P1297 MILLING P, 1996, INVENTION INNOVATION OERTEL D, 2001, FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGY, P86 PERILLIEUX R, 1987, TIMING FACTOR STRATE RECHENBERG I, 1973, EVOLUTION STRATEGY, FF78 REICHERT L, 1994, EVOLUTION INNOVATION, FF250 ROBINSON WT, 1985, J MARKETING RES, V22, P305 ROBINSON WT, 1989, PIMSLETTER BUSINESS, V38 SCHNAARS SP, 1986, BUSINESS HORIZON MAR, P27 SCHNAARS SP, 1994, MANAGING IMITATION S SCHNEIDER MT, 2002, EXPLORATIVE STUDY MA SPECHT G, 1985, MARKETING ZFB, V7, P161 TROMMSDORF V, 1995, CASE STUDIES INNOVAT, P40 URBAN GL, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P645 VOLKSWAGEN AG, 2002, ANN REPORT 2001 WIESLHUBER N, 1985, HDB STRATEGIC MARKET, P308 ZIMAN J, 2000, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA, P15 NR 43 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 16 IS 2 BP 147 EP 172 PG 26 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 827AI UT ISI:000221870200001 ER PT J AU Hardstone, GAP TI Capabilities, structures and strategies re-examined: Incumbent firms and the emergence of complex product systems (CoPS) in mature industries SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article DE product complexity; capabilities; structure; strategy; printing ID ORGANIZATION; INNOVATION AB This paper re-examines theories about firm capabilities, industrial co-ordination and competitive strategies in the context of Complex Product Systems(CoPS). In particular, it looks at the applicability of concepts of technological and organisational capabilities, transaction and governance cost analysis anti industry lifecycle models to the performance of mature industries under conditions of technological change. It does so in the light of empirical evidence from one sector of a mature but fast-changing industry in which CoPS are currently emerging: offset lithographic print and publishing technologies-the capital goods and systems used to produce printed mass media, particularly newspapers. In this sector of the graphic arts industries, three major incumbent producer firms which were previously similar had each begun to pursue different capabilities, structures and strategies, with apparent success. The complexity of CoPS and of the organisational arrangements for their design, development anti commissioning are capable of supporting a wide variety of firm capabilities, structures and strategies. C1 Univ Edinburgh, Res Ctr Social Sci, Edinburgh EH8 9LW, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Hardstone, GAP, Univ Edinburgh, Res Ctr Social Sci, 1,Buccleuch Pl, Edinburgh EH8 9LW, Midlothian, Scotland. EM G.Hardstone@ed.ac.uk CR *SEYB SEM, 1997, CIM MAN BLEED EDG VS AKINFE A, 1997, PRINTING WORLD 1010 ANGHELIDES B, 1992, PRINTING WORLD 0219, P20 BLAUNER R, 1964, ALIENATION FREEDOM F BONACCORSI F, 1996, KNOWLEDGE TECHNOLOGY CHANDLER AD, 1990, SCALE SCOPE DYNAMICS COCKBURN C, 1983, BROTHERS MALE DOMINA COHEN W, 1994, MANAGE SCI, V402, P227 COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 DAVIS A, 1997, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V1, P229 DRIVERS, 1991, 2 PICT CURDS U NEWC FLECK J, 1989, PICT WORKING PAPER S, V14 GOSS D, 1988, SOCIOLOGY, V22, P417 HARDSTONE GAP, 1996, THESIS U EDINBURGH HARDSTONE GAP, 1997, P 7 INT FOR TECHN MA HENDERSON R, 1993, RAND J ECON, V24, P248 HOBDAY M, 1998, RES POLICY, V26, P689 HOLLAND C, 1992, BRIT PRINTER MAR, P66 HUGHES TP, 1983, NEWTORKS POWER ELECT JUHOLA H, 1992, P 1991 C TECHN ASS G, P508 KAPLINSKY R, 1984, AUTOMATION TECHNOLOG LANGLOIS R, 1992, IND CORP CHANGE, V11, P99 LANGLOIS, 1993, RAND J EC, V24, P121 LANGLOIS, 1993, RAND J EC, V24, P99 LEONARDBARTON D, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V13, P111 MILLER R, 1995, IND CORP CHANGE, V4, P363 MITCHELL W, 1992, IND CORP CHANGE, V1, P327 MITCHELL, 1993, RAND J EC, V24, P333 NELSON R, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V12, P69 NELSON RR, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P61 PORTER M, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PORTER M, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI RING PS, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V13, P483 ROSENBLOOM RS, 1994, IND CORP CHANGE, V3, P655 SCHWEISSER W, 1990, P 1989 C TECHN ASS G, P701 TUSHMAN M, 1986, ADM SCI Q, V31, P4439 ULRICK T, 1997, PRINTING WORLD 0505 ULRICK T, 1997, PRINTING WORLD 0602 UTTERBACK JM, 1975, J MANAGEMENT SCI, V36, P639 UTTERBACK JM, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA UTTERBACK JM, 1994, MASTERING DYNAMICS I WILLIAMSON OE, 1980, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V1, P5 WILLIAMSON OE, 1996, ACAD MANAGE REV, V21, P48 NR 43 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 16 IS 2 BP 173 EP 196 PG 24 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 827AI UT ISI:000221870200002 ER PT J AU Lichtenthaler, E TI Coordination of technology intelligence processes: A study in technology intensive multinationals SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID COMPANIES; THREATS; OPPORTUNITIES; MANAGEMENT; SIGNALS AB The importance of technology intelligence is widely, accepted in theory and practice. However, existing research is contradictory on how this process should be coordinated. Therefore it was the objective of this contribution to derive insight into the coordination of the technology intelligence process. The results of an exploratory case study research in 26 leading European and North American companies in the pharmaceutical, telecommunications equipment and automobile/machinery industry are presented. The results show,first, that the coordination of technology, intelligence processes cannot be limited to structural coordination. Hybrid and informal forms of coordination are used simultaneously. Second, it is shown that the three forms of coordination of technology intelligence processes are being integrated differently based on the style of decision making and the culture of the company. Third, it is shown that the distribution and size of technology intelligence activities between corporate and divisional level as well as between different regions depend on the location of decision making on innovative activities and on the preconditions for performing technology intelligence. C1 Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH, Ctr Enterprise Sci, Grp Technol & Innovat Management, CH-8028 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Lichtenthaler, E, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH, Ctr Enterprise Sci, Grp Technol & Innovat Management, Zurichbergstr 18, CH-8028 Zurich, Switzerland. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 16 IS 2 BP 197 EP 221 PG 25 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 827AI UT ISI:000221870200003 ER PT J AU Szyliowicz, D Kennedy, KH Nelson, T TI Shaping of strategic behavior: How macro-environmental effects pattern the country-level participation of non-US firms in US equity markets SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID FORMAL-STRUCTURE; MANAGEMENT; CULTURE; ORGANIZATIONS; CAPABILITIES; INFORMATION; KNOWLEDGE; NETWORKS; INDUSTRY; INSTITUTIONS AB This paper examines the effects of macro-environmental variables on country-level patterns of participation by firms on the US NASDAQ stock exchange. NASDAQ's popularity can be linked to the strength of its technological system, as well as the high frequency of listings of technology-oriented firms. Using concepts from organization theory, strategy and international business, we consider the impact of political, legal, cultural, and colonial heritage status on the strategic capital-seeking behavior of non-US companies in US markets. We empirically demonstrate that similarity in legal systems and a shared colonial heritage will influence the probability of a non-US country having firm participation on the NASDAQ. The results also indicate that the effects of institutional forces are not static processes. C1 Texas Tech Univ, Dept Management, Lubbock, TX 79410 USA. Ohio Univ, Athens, OH 45701 USA. Suffolk Univ, Boston, MA 02114 USA. RP Szyliowicz, D, Texas Tech Univ, Dept Management, Lubbock, TX 79410 USA. EM daras@ba.ttu.edu CR *CENTR INT AG, 1998, WORLD FACTB *FREED HOUS, 1998, FREED WORLD ANN SURV *NASDAQ, 1992, NASDAQ HDB *NASDAQ, 2001, NASDAQ HDB *NASDAQ, 2002, NASDAQ HDB *WORLD NEWS DIG, 1998, WORLD NEWS DIG ADLER NJ, 1983, J INT BUS STUD, V14, P29 BARLEY SR, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P61 BARNETT WP, 1991, AC MAN BEST PAP P AC, P7 BARRY CB, 1985, J FINANC QUANT ANAL, V20, P407 BARTLETT CA, 9786013 HARV BUS SCH BECKER T, 1986, UN DEV FORUM NOV, P7 BEKAERT G, 1995, J FINANC, V50, P403 BERGARA ME, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V40, P18 BIGGART NW, 1998, J MANAGE INQUIRY, V7, P311 BROWN SL, 1997, ADMIN SCI QUART, V42, P1 CALDERONROSSELL JR, 1993, INT FINANCE CONT ISS CHEUNG YL, 1995, MANAGERIAL DECISION, V16, P537 CHILD J, 1981, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V3, P303 CHORAFAS DN, 1992, GLOBALIZATION MONEY COLLINSON S, 1999, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V11, P337 DACIN MT, 1997, J WORLD BUS, V32, P3 DAS DK, 1993, INT FINANCE CONT ISS DERESKY H, 2000, INT MANAGEMENT MANAG DIMAGGIO P, 1983, ORG THEORY PUBLIC PO DIMAGGIO PJ, 1983, AM SOCIOL REV, V48, P147 DOBBIN F, 1997, ADMIN SCI QUART, V42, P501 DOZ YL, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P145 DUNNING JH, 1981, INT PRODUCTION MULTI DVENI R, 1994, HYPERCOMPETITION MAN EGELHOFF WG, 1982, ADM SCI Q, V27, P435 ERRUNZA V, 1985, J FINANC, V40, P105 FIOL CM, 1991, J MANAGE, V17, P191 FLIGSTEIN N, 1985, AM SOCIOL REV, V50, P377 FRANKEL JA, 1993, INT FINANCE CONT ISS GRANOVETTER M, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V91, P481 GRANT EB, 1997, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V9, P149 HAMILTON GG, 1988, AM J SOCIOL, V94, S52 HANNAN MT, 1989, ORG ECOLOGY HANNAN MT, 1995, AM SOCIOL REV, V60, P509 HARGADON AB, 2001, ADMIN SCI QUART, V46, P476 HEIDE JB, 1990, J MARKETING RES, V27, P24 HIRSCH P, 1972, AM J SOCIOL, V77, P639 HITT MA, 1991, ACAD MANAGE J, V34, P693 HOFSTEDE G, 1983, J INT BUSINESS S FAL, P75 JEPPERSON RL, 1991, NEW I ORG ANAL KHERALLAH M, 1998, AM J AGR ECON, V80, P15 KOBRIN SJ, 1998, GLOBALIZATION GOVT C KOGUT B, 1985, SLOAN MANAGEMENT FAL, P27 KOGUT B, 1988, J INT BUS STUD, V19, P411 KOGUT B, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P33 KRAATZ MS, 1996, AM SOCIOL REV, V61, P812 LEBLEBICI H, 1991, ADMIN SCI QUART, V36, P333 LESSARD DR, 1974, J FINANC, V29, P379 LEVY H, 1970, AM ECON REV, V60, P668 MEYER JW, 1977, AM J SOCIOL, V83, P340 OFFICER DT, 1987, J INT FINANCIAL MANA, V4, P190 OHMAE K, 1989, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P143 PORTER M, 1991, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI PORTER ME, 1986, CALIF MANAGE REV, V28, P9 PORTER ME, 1996, HARVARD BUS REV, V74, P61 POWELL WW, 1996, ADMIN SCI QUART, V41, P116 READ WH, 1996, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V8, P223 SALANCIK GR, 1988, RES SOCIOLOGY ORG, V6, P1 SCHENDEL D, 1979, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT SCOTT WR, 1987, ORG RATIONAL NATURAL SOLNIK B, 1996, FINANCIAL ANAL J, V52, P17 SOLNIK BH, 1974, FINANCIAL ANAL J JUL, P48 SPIRO G, 1991, LEGAL ENV BUSINESS STAPLETON RC, 1977, J FINANC, V32, P307 STULZ RM, 1999, J FINANC, V36, P923 SZYLIOWICZ D, EFFECTS STATE ENTREP TEECE DJ, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V18, P509 TOLBERT PS, 1983, ADMIN SCI QUART, V28, P22 TYLECOTE A, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P423 USEEM M, 1998, ACAD MANAGEMENT EXEC, V12, P4 ZAHEER S, 1997, J INT BUS STUD, V28, P77 NR 77 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 16 IS 2 BP 223 EP 240 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 827AI UT ISI:000221870200004 ER PT J AU Jordan, J Lowe, J TI Protecting strategic knowledge: Insights from collaborative agreements in the aerospace sector SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TRANSACTION COST; ALLIANCES; MODULARITY; MANAGEMENT; TRUST; ORGANIZATION; COOPERATION; PERSPECTIVE; GOVERNANCE; TECHNOLOGY AB This paper explores the dilemma that firms face with respect to knowledge sharing in strategic alliances. On the one hand, alliance success is associated with high levels of interaction and co-operation between partners. On the other hand, full and open co-operation exposes a,firm's distinctive knowledge and skills and makes it vulnerable to opportunistic moves by alliance partners. Hence firms experience a fundamental paradox: to gain the greatest benefits they must exchange information and knowledge with external parties yet, at the same time, they must protect themselves against knowledge appropriation. This dilemma is particularly acute in the aerospace sector where political imperatives strongly influence partner choice and collaborators are often strong rivals in other contexts. In this paper we use data drawn from four collaborative agreements in the aerospace sector to explore the ways in which a focal firm has sought to protect its strategic knowledge and manage knowledge flows in alliance relationships. We find that existing theoretical lenses provide valuable but partial insights into the question of knowledge appropriation in alliances and offer limited guidance to managers charged with making alliances work. We suggest that some rich insights can be gained by focusing on the overlaps and interstices between existing theories and that greater exploration of the everyday working practices in alliances may offer a useful starting point for improved theorising. C1 Univ W England, Bristol Business Sch, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. Univ Ballarat, Ballarat, Vic, Australia. RP Jordan, J, Univ W England, Bristol Business Sch, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 16 IS 2 BP 241 EP 259 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 827AI UT ISI:000221870200005 ER PT J AU De Bruijn, H Porter, AL TI The education of a technology policy analyst - to process management SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PERSPECTIVES; KNOWLEDGE AB Technology policy analysis emphasizes logical resolution of issues based on conceptual models, data, and analyses, but this often is not enough to accomplish anything. Policy-makers routinely disregard policy analyses, even when well done, timely, and pertinent to the issues at hand. Process management complements policy analysis by directing attention to the interactions through which disparate interests reconcile their differences to initiate viable action. We pose five questions that constitute a situational analysis decision free. Based on answers to those questions, we distinguish five action approaches (including 'do nothing') that can enhance the utilization of technology analyses. These approaches demand skills, not always paramount in policy analysts, to run processes that engage stakeholders. K illustrate how process management can enhance the utilization of technology policy analysis through a hypothetical case. C1 Delft Univ Technol, Delft, Netherlands. Search Technol Inc, Res & Dev, Norcross, GA USA. Georgia Tech Res Inst, Technol Policy & Assessmetn Ctr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA. RP De Bruijn, H, Delft Univ Technol, Delft, Netherlands. EM J.A.deBruijn@tbm.tudelft.nl CR 2000, J MULTI CRITERIA DEC, V9 BEROGGI D, 1999, DECISION MODELLING P BODDY D, 1996, ORG NETWORK AGE CHAKRAVARTHY B, 2003, STRATEGY PROCESS SHA CHISHOLM D, 1989, COORDINATION HIERARC DAWSON P, 2003, RESHAPING CHANGE PRO DEBRUIJN H, 2000, NETWORKS DECISION MA DEBRUIJN H, 2002, PROCESS MANAGEMENT W DEBRUIJN, 2002, IMPACT ASSESSMENT PR, V20, P1 GOODWIN P, 1998, DECISION ANAL MANAGE GUINEE JB, 2002, HDB LIFE CYCLE ASSES, P21 HANSEN MT, 1999, HARVARD BUS REV, V77, P106 HISSCHEMOLLER M, 1993, DEMOCRAITE PROBLEMEN HISSCHEMOLLER M, 1996, KNOWLEDGE POLICY, V8, P40 JONES JW, 1994, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V41, P41 KICKERT WJM, 1997, MANAGING COMPLEX NET MORGAN GM, 2001, RISK COMMUNICATION M OH CH, 1997, KNOWLEDGE POLICY INT, V10, P25 PONCELET EC, 2001, POLICY SCI, V34, P273 PORTER AL, IN PRESS RES TECHNOL PORTER AL, 2001, WHY DONT MANAGERS OU RENN O, 1998, RISK DECIS POLICY, V3, P5 RICH RF, 1991, KNOWLEDGE, V12, P319 SALTER L, 1998, MANDATED SCI WEBLER T, 2001, ENVIRON MANAGE, V27, P435 NR 25 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 16 IS 2 BP 261 EP 274 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 827AI UT ISI:000221870200006 ER PT J AU Antoniou, PH Ansoff, HI TI Strategic management of technology SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB This article deals with technology as it relates to strategy design. It addresses the different views of reality between general managers and the organization's technologists. This becomes increasingly important in high levels of turbulence. It examines the role of the general management and technological myopia as major influencer in the decision-making process. The thrust of this article is on the assessment of gaps between management and technologists and methods to close them. The article completes with the role of management in managing and driving technological innovation while integrating technology strategy in the organization's strategy. C1 Calif State Univ San Marcos, Ansoff Inst, San Marcos, CA USA. RP Antoniou, PH, 2166 Lemon Ave, Escondido, CA 92029 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2004 VL 16 IS 2 BP 275 EP 291 PG 17 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 827AI UT ISI:000221870200007 ER PT J AU Jacobsson, S Sanden, BA Bangens, L TI Transforming the energy system - The evolution of the German technological system for solar cells SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB To improve our understanding of processes involved in the formation and growth of new; technological systems in the energy sector and to identify the associated key challenges for policy makers managing the transformation process, we examine the development of the German technological system for solar cells over the past 25 years. We use a 'technological system' approach in which we will trace the evolution of actors, networks and institutions that have a bearing on the generation and diffusion of solar cells. An initial preparatory stage lasted until about 1989 and was mainly characterized by knowledge build-up induced by a Federal RDD programme. This was followed by a second stage characterized by political struggle over the regulatory framework and a subsequent beginning of a virtuous circle for solar cells. In the concluding discussion, we emphasize four key features of the evolution of the technological system (1) the role of a coalition of system builders that successfully influenced the regulatory framework so that markets could be formed: (2) the considerable length of the learning period and the large number of actors that need to learn; (3) the importance of policies that form early markets (not only early niche markets, but beyond those) as only markets may induce firms to enter and learn, and (4) the need to run market formation policies simultaneous to policies that maintain technological variety. C1 Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Ind Dynam, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. RP Jacobsson, S, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Ind Dynam, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 16 IS 1 BP 3 EP 30 PG 28 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 777XU UT ISI:000189209800001 ER PT J AU Coccia, M TI Spatial metrics of the technological transfer: Analysis and strategic management SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; PERFORMANCE; INDICATORS AB The Triple Helix thesis states that research laboratories and universities can play an enhanced role in innovation in increasingly knowledge-based societies. In fact the locus of industrial innovation is shifting towards networks focused on technological transfer from public research laboratories to firms. This scenario presents challenges for investigating the new behaviour of research laboratories and the measurement and evaluation of their scientific and technological activity. This study analyses how the variable 'space' affects an important activity carried out within these laboratories: the technological transfer The purpose of this research is to: (1) construct indicators, called sensors, starting from the geographical neo-classical approach based on physical distance, for measuring and studying the spatial dynamics of technological transfer; (2) apply the metrics to case studies using data from three institutes of the Italian National Council of Research operating in an industrialised region in the north-west Italy. The sensors are useful for understanding the spatial behaviour both of the technological transfer process, and the strategy of research. laboratories. Some management implications conclude the research. C1 Natl Res Council Italy, Inst Econ Res Firms & Growth CERIS CNR, I-10121 Turin, Italy. Politecn Turin, I-10129 Turin, Italy. RP Coccia, M, Natl Res Council Italy, Inst Econ Res Firms & Growth CERIS CNR, Via Avogadro 8, I-10121 Turin, Italy. EM m.coccia@ceris.to.cnr.it CR *CVCP, 1985, JARR REP REP STEER C *DES, 1991, REP HMI *EUR COMM, 1999, EU REP AMIN A, 1993, REV EC REGIONALE URB, V3, P405 ARCHIBUGI D, 1998, INT J EC BUSINESS, V5, P295 ARROW K, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN AUDRETSCH DB, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P630 AUTIO E, 1995, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V10, P643 BALESTRI A, 1994, IL DISTRETTO TESSILE BALL R, 1994, HIGH EDUC, V27, P417 BELLET M, 1993, REV EC REGIONALE URB, V3 BELLET M, 1998, PROXIMITES APPROCHES CAVALIERI A, 1995, INT PROCESSO PRODUTT COCCIA M, 1999, 13 CERISCNR COCCIA M, 2001, R&D MANAGE, V31, P453 COCCIA M, 2002, TECHNOVATION, V22, P291 EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P21 ETZKOWITZ H, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P109 FELDMAN M, 1994, GEOGRAPHY INNOVATION HAGERSTRAND T, 1967, PAPERS REGIONAL SCI, V16, P27 HARRIS CD, 1954, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V44, P315 JUSTMAN M, 1996, TECHNOLOGICAL INFRAS LUNDVALL BA, 1993, I FRAMEWORKS MARKET MARSHALL A, 1891, PRINCIPLES EC PERROUX P, 1967, EC 20 SECOLO PRED A, 1967, LUND STUDIES GEOGR 1, P11 PREMUS R, 2002, INT J TECHNOLOGY TRA, V1, P23 ROTHWELL R, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P221 SCHERER FM, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P227 SCHOMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHOMOOKLER J, 1971, PATENTS INVENTION EC SCHUMPETER JA, 1965, THEORY EC DEV SOUDER W, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P151 STEWART JQ, 1958, J REGIONAL SCI, V1, P90 ULMANN EL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F WEST LHT, 1986, OECD CERI IMHE PROGR WINTER SG, 1987, COMPETITIVE CHALLENG, P159 NR 37 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 16 IS 1 BP 31 EP 51 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 777XU UT ISI:000189209800002 ER PT J AU Mortehan, O TI The role of firms' collaborative agreements in the information technology industry transformation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INTERFIRM RELATIONSHIPS; NETWORKS; ALLIANCES; PARTNERSHIPS; COOPERATION; INNOVATION; LINKAGES; PATTERNS; SURVIVAL; TRENDS AB While most articles on firm partnerships focus on the firm, the alliance or networks, we investigate the role of collaborative agreements during industrial transformation phases. Observation of a single industry, the Information Technology (IT) industry, shows that the growth of collaborative agreements formed by industry leaders in the early 1990s can be interpreted as an attempt to absorb a major industry shock characterized by vertical disintegration and the emergence of 'divided technical leadership'. Such firms have adopted collaborative agreements to maintain their leadership by controlling new entrants in the new industry segments that have resulted from the disintegration. Partnerships became a strategic component of the new 'divided technical leadership' market structure that emerged from the competitive crash of the early 1990s. C1 Univ Brussels, Solvay Business Sch, Brussels, Belgium. RP Mortehan, O, Free Univ Brussels, CP135,Ave FD Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium. EM olivier.mortehan@ulb.ac.be CR AHUJA G, 2000, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V21, P317 BETTIS RA, 1995, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V16, P7 BRESNAHAN TF, 1999, J IND ECON, V47, P1 CHAN SH, 1997, J FINANC ECON, V46, P199 CONTRACTOR F, 1988, COOPERATIVE STRATEGI DICKSON PH, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P404 DUNNING JH, 1995, J INT BUS STUD, V26, P461 GAMBARDELLA A, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P445 GROVE, 1996, ONLY PARANOID SURVIV GULATI R, 1998, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V19, P293 HAGEDOORN J, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P291 HAGEDOORN J, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P207 HAGEDOORN J, 1997, GLOBALISATION ORG MO HAGEDOORN J, 1997, TECHNOLOGICAL CONVER HAGEDOORN J, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P567 HAGEDOORN J, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P477 HARRIGAN KR, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V9, P141 HITT MA, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V22, P479 LEWIS J, 1990, PARTNERSHIPS PROFIT LORENZONI G, 1999, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V20, P317 MADHAVAN R, 1998, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V19, P439 MITCHELL W, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P169 MORTEHAN O, 1995, ENJEUX PERSPECTIVES NARULA R, 2000, CHOOSING INTERNAL NO NOHRIA N, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P105 OSBORN RN, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P261 PORTER M, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PORTER M, 1986, COMPETITION GLOBAL I POWELL WW, 1996, ADMIN SCI QUART, V41, P116 ROBERTS E, 2001, MIT SLOAN MANAGE FAL, P26 ROBERTSON TS, 1998, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V19, P515 ROTHAERMEL FT, 2001, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V22, P687 SAXTON T, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P443 SINGH K, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P339 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 VEUGELERS R, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P63 VONORTAS N, 1995, RES POLICY, V26, P577 VONORTAS N, 1997, R D CONSORTIA NR 38 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 16 IS 1 BP 53 EP 71 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 777XU UT ISI:000189209800003 ER PT J AU Chiesa, V Toletti, G TI Network of collaborations for innovation: The case of biotechnology SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID KNOWLEDGE; FOOD AB The 'life science' revolution related to the development of biotechnology affects many different markets. In the pharmaceutical business new drugs are continuously developed, tested, and submitted to governmental institutions for the required approval. In the agricultural business the so-called 'green revolution' is well under way with many new products designed in order to appeal to farmers or to consumers. The increasing pace of introduction of new biotech products-particularly drugs and agrochemical (Ag) foods-leads firms to look for collaborations in the different phases of the introduction process. Basing on an empirical study conducted on a sample of 27 organisations involved in the process of introduction of biotech products, the paper aims at comparing and contrasting the nature and the processes involved in inter-institutional collaborations occurring at various stages of new product development and commercialisation of new biotech products (particularly drugs and Ag foods). C1 Politecn Milan, I-20133 Milan, Italy. Univ Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy. RP Toletti, G, Politecn Milan, Piazza L da Vinci 32, I-20133 Milan, Italy. EM giovanni.toletti@polimi.it CR *BURR CO, 2000, BIOT 2000 LIF SCI CH *BURR CO, 2001, BIOT 2001 LIF SCI GE *ERNST YOUNG, 2000, CONV BIOT IND REP *ERNST YOUNG, 2000, EV ERNST YOUNGS 7 AN *ERNST YOUNG, 2001, BACK BAS ERNST YOUNG *ERNST YOUNG, 2001, INT ERNST YOUNGS 8 A AMBURGEY T, 1994, AC MAN ANN M DALL TE BARLEY SR, 1992, NETWORKS ORG STRUCTU, P311 CHIESA V, 1996, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V14, P638 COOMBS R, 1998, DRUID SUMM C APR MAN DEMETRAKAKES P, 1997, FOOD PROCESS, V58, P24 FERRARA J, 1998, ECOLOGIST, V28, P280 GORELICK S, 1998, ECOLOGIST, V28, P301 HWANG P, 1997, CALIF MANAGE REV, V39, P101 KIMBRELL A, 1998, ECOLOGIST, V28, P306 KING J, 1998, RACE CLASS, P73 LONG C, 1998, AM ENTERPRISE, V9, P55 MONTAGUE P, 1998, ECOLOGIST, V28, P299 POWELL WW, 1996, ADM SCI Q, V41, P16 POWELL WW, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V40, P228 ROTMAN D, 1998, TECHNOL REV, V101, P34 SINGH K, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P339 STIPP D, 1998, FORTUNE, V138, P128 TEECE DJ, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V40, P55 THOMPSON PB, 1997, HASTINGS CENT REP, V27, P34 TOKAR B, 1998, ECOLOGIST, V28, P254 WEINTRAUB P, 1992, AUDOBON, V94, P92 NR 27 TC 2 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 16 IS 1 BP 73 EP 96 PG 24 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 777XU UT ISI:000189209800004 ER PT J AU Ramirez, P Tylecote, A TI Hybrid corporate governance and its effects on innovation: A case study of AstraZeneca SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PHARMACEUTICAL-INDUSTRY AB This case study looks at the relationship between the UK/Swedish pharmaceutical firm. AstraZeneca, and its shareholders from the point of view of its effects on innovation. It uses a theoretical framework on corporate governance and innovation that differentiates sectors according to the novelty, visibility and appropriability of technological change. High novelty requires a corporate governance system with strong industry-specific expertise; low visibility requires good firm-specific perceptiveness. High appropriability favours shareholder supremacy (is against stakeholder inclusion. The pharmaceutical industry appears to be high in all three, and this (according to accepted stereotypes) should favour the outsider-dominated corporate governance system of the UK as against the insider-dominated Swedish system. It is found that the corporate governance that resulted from the merger could indeed be described as hybrid, but that (following the building up of one major US shareholding) it was a UK/Swedish/US hybrid. In spite of the apparent similarity of the UK and US 'outsider-dominated systems, the US element made a crucial difference, in giving engagement by a strong and well-informed shareholder who had some influence on other shareholders. This in turn helped to protect the firm to a significant extent from short-term pressures within the UK stock market, and thus to allow it to maintain its emphasis on long-term innovation. C1 Natl Univ Ireland, Ctr Innovat & Struct Change, Galway, Ireland. Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England. Univ Sheffield, Dept Econ, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England. RP Ramirez, P, Natl Univ Ireland, Ctr Innovat & Struct Change, Galway, Ireland. EM paulina.ramirez@nuigalway.ie CR *ASTRAZENECA, 1999, 1 R D PRES *CEC, 1990, REP WORKPL INV TECHN, V1 *HAMP REP, 1998, FIN REP ADOLFSSON P, 1999, COPORATE GOVT SWEDEN BASSANINI A, 2002, IND CORP CHANGE, V11, P391 COOKSON C, 1999, FINANCIAL TIMES 0315 DEMIRAG IS, 1994, J BUSINESS FINANCE A, V21, P1195 GAVED M, 1995, 9519807 LSE HOLLAND J, 1998, J BUSINESS FINANCE A, V25, P29 HOWELLS J, 1995, INTERVENTION TECHNOL HOWELLS J, 1998, ECONOMIST 0221 HOWELLS J, 1998, UNPUB ESRC CTR RES I JAMES AD, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P299 JUNGMITTAG A, 2000, CHANGING INNOVATION LEE TA, 1977, PRIVATE SHAREHOLDER MARTON J, 1998, ACCOUNTING STOCK MAR NIGHTINGALE P, 1997, THESIS SUSSEX U ORSENIGO L, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P485 RAMIREZ P, 1999, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE RAMIREZ P, 2003, ASEAT I INN RES C KN RAMIREZ P, 2003, THESIS U MANCHESTER RANDLES S, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P331 SHARP M, EUROPES PHARM IND IN SHARP M, 1993, 5 STEEP SCI POL RES SOLOMON J, 1999, UK CORPORATE GOVERNA TYLECOTE A, 200315 SHEFF U MAN S TYLECOTE A, 1999, IND INNOVATION, V6, P25 WALSH V, 1998, EAEPE 1998 C 5 8 NOV WALSH V, 2002, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V14, P273 NR 29 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 16 IS 1 BP 97 EP 119 PG 23 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 777XU UT ISI:000189209800005 ER PT J AU Van Wijk, J TI Terminating piracy or legitimate seed saving? The use of copy-protection technology in seeds SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID KNOWLEDGE; MANAGEMENT; INNOVATION; POLICY; TACIT AB This article analyses the strategies of the agro-biotechnology industry to control and exploit plant-genetic knowledge, and the dilemmas that these strategies involve. The replicability of plants limits markets for commercial seeds, as it enables farmers to reproduce seeds themselves. The industry has therefore invented genetic-engineering techniques that will block the replicability of plants, and will effectively prevent farmers from saving their own seeds. However, this copy-protection technique-dubbed 'Terminator'-is widely condemned in farming communities. The technology overrules intellectual property lairs that exempt seed saving for private use, and it is likely to have a negative impact on medium-sized and small farming systems in developing countries. In this article it is argued that while copy protection in plants may expand seed markets, it may also seriously damage the reputation of the biotechnology industry. Corporate scientists and strategists should be more open to a public discussion about the fairness and legitimacy of seed production for private use. C1 Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam Sch Management, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. RP Van Wijk, J, Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam Sch Management, Room F4-52,POB 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. EM jwijk@fbk.eur.nl CR 1998, 5723765, US 1998, FARM IND NEWS 1999, GUARDIAN 0317 *DELT PIN LAND CO, 1999, CONV BIOL DIV CONS U *FAO, 2001, CFAWGGR1017 FAO COMM *GRAIN, 2001, SEEDLING, V18 *INT SEED FED, 2003, SEED STAT *ISF, 2003, ISF POS GEN US RESTR *MONS, 1999, MONS POS GEN PROT TE *NAT RES COUNC, 2000, DIG DIL INT PROP INF *UPOV, 1991, INT CONV PROT NEW VA *USDA, 1999, CONV BIOL DIV CONS U ARROW JK, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN, P609 BERLAN JP, 1997, THINKING EVOLUTION H BERMAN B, 2002, IDEAS ASSETS INVESTI BICKNELL RA, 1999, BIOTECHNOLOGY DEV MO, V37, P17 CARTER C, 2000, REGIMES KNOWLEDGE ST COHENDET P, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P1563 COWAN R, 1997, IND CORP CHANGE, V6, P595 DAVIS JL, 2001, EDISON BOARDROOM LEA DOYLE J, 1985, ALTERED HARVEST AGR EAST EM, 1919, INBREEDING OUTBREEDI EDVINSSON L, 1996, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V14, P356 GIORDINO R, PHILLYNEWS GLAZIER SC, 2000, PATENT STRATEGIES BU HALL R, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P607 HANSEN MT, 1999, HARVARD BUS REV, V77, P106 HEIJBROEK AMA, 1996, WORLD SEED MARKET DE HOSKISSON RE, 1999, J MANAGE, V25, P417 JAFFE W, 1995, IMPACT PLANT BREEDER JORDAN J, 1997, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V9, P379 LANGE P, 1985, UPOV IND PATENTS PLA, P29 LESSIG L, 1999, CODE OTHER LAWS CYBE NAIK S, 2001, INDIAN SEED IND THRE PETRASH G, 1996, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V14, P365 PIKE CG, 2001, VIRTUAL MONOPOLY PISTORIUS R, 1999, EXPLOITATION PLANT G PITT M, 1999, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V11, P301 RIVETTE KG, 2000, REMBRANDTS ATTIC UNL SAVIOTTI PP, 1998, RES POLICY, V26, P843 SRIVASTAVA JP, 1993, 213 WORLD BANK STALLMANN JI, 1987, AM J AGR ECON, V69, P432 SWANSON T, 2000, INT J BIOTECHNOLOGY, V2, P6 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 TEECE DJ, 1998, CALIF MANAGE REV, V40, P55 VANDERKOOIJ PAC, 1990, KWEKERSRECHT ONTWIKK VANTULDER R, 2004, REPUTATIONS STAKE BU VANWIJK J, 1994, BIOTECHNOLOGY DEV MO, V19, P3 VANWIJK J, 2002, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V20, P689 WARTICK SL, 1999, INT BUSINESS SOC WILLIAMS RL, 2001, J INTELLECTUAL CAPIT, V2, P96 WONG WLP, 2000, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V12, P493 NR 52 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2004 VL 16 IS 1 BP 121 EP 141 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 777XU UT ISI:000189209800006 ER PT J AU Natovich, J TI Vendor related risks in IT development: A chronology of an outsourced project failure SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TRUST; SYSTEMS; LESSONS AB Many organizations consider outsourcing their information technology (IT) development Projects as an attractive risk-mitigating approach. In such an engagement, the vendor may agree to complete a project for a fixed cost and according to a defined time schedule. Nevertheless while the vendor is liable for the traditional project risks, other forms of risk may arise, which are the vendor risks. This paper Presents a recent case study of a project failure that demonstrates sonic of the major vendor risks and their contribution to system development failure. The risks discussed in the paper are: (a) Adversarial relationships and loss of trust between the vendor and the client; (b) Vendor management de-escalation of commitment; and (c) Difficulty in breaking the contractual engagement. The case shows that by outsourcing, an organization might not eliminate the traditional IT project risks but rather exchange them for equally fatal vendor risks. Furthermore, the case raises doubts regarding the effectiveness of the contract-driven control approach to mitigate vendor risks. This pal)er suggest that perhaps. since, placing all risks on the vendor is impractical, a partnership approach of sharing risks and rewards may be more affective in bringing the client and the vendor to successful project outcomes. C1 Tel Aviv Coll Management, Sch Business Adm, IL-75190 Rishon Letzion, Israel. RP Natovich, J, Tel Aviv Coll Management, Sch Business Adm, 7 Itzhak Rabin Blvd, IL-75190 Rishon Letzion, Israel. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2003 VL 15 IS 4 BP 409 EP 419 PG 11 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 739CP UT ISI:000186324900002 ER PT J AU Dalcher, D TI Beyond normal failures: Dynamic management of software projects SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID REQUIREMENTS AB The skillset focusing on the life cycle of projects is critical to both understanding and practising sound management. In practice, attention is often paid to the actions and procedures required to build the system to the detriment of the tasks that are essential in managing the project. Discrete attempts to create such systems often lead to a mismatch between, system, expectation and a changing reality. This paper looks beyond discrete processes as Part of an effort to generate a dynamic model. The rationale for a Dynamic Feedback Model stems from the need to focus on a continuous and long-term. perspective of development and growth in change-intensive environments. The paper makes the case for a learning and knowledge-driven view of software development and presents such a model in a way that accounts for the long-term survival, growth and evolution of software-intensive systems-crucial areas in terms of the success of systems. While the emphasis is on the development of software, which is pervasive in most systems, the key issues appear to pertain to most technical development projects and environments. C1 Middlesex Univ, Software Forens Ctr, London N14 4YZ, England. RP Dalcher, D, Middlesex Univ, Software Forens Ctr, Trent Pk,Bramley Rd, London N14 4YZ, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2003 VL 15 IS 4 BP 421 EP 439 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 739CP UT ISI:000186324900003 ER PT J AU Adamson, I Shine, J TI Extending the new technology acceptance model to measure the end user information systems satisfaction in a mandatory environment: A bank's treasury SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL; PERCEIVED EASE; COMPUTER-TECHNOLOGY; USAGE; REPLICATION; PERFORMANCE; PERCEPTIONS; EXTENSION; ATTITUDES; MANAGERS AB On having implemented a new dealing rooms platform in a Bank's Treasury, the management identified a number of areas for further investigations of the end user acceptance of the new technology. Answers were sought to what extent dissatisfaction, if any, was influenced by the end users' perception of the system quality, subjective norms and computer self efficacy. New, technology acceptance models assume perceived 'usefulness" rather than 'ease of use' as a strong indicator of usage. The end user satisfaction model was developed to measure the end user satisfaction in a mandatory environment, and to test the 'usefulness' versus 'ease of use' assumption. The findings suggest that in a mandatory environment such as a Bank's Treasury the perceived 'ease of use' was a marginally stronger influencer of the end user satisfaction. Demographic variables such as age, position in a company and the length of employment were other significant contributors to satisfaction. The implications of the findings for the Bank's management are twofold: both 'computer self-efficacy' and the end user 'satisfaction' play a major role in new technology acceptance, therefore the two variables require a particular consideration in designing information systems in mandatory environments. C1 Univ Edinburgh, Sch Elect & Engn, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ Edinburgh, Scottish Inst Enterprise, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ Surrey, Surrey European Management Sch, Surrey GU2 7XH, England. RP Adamson, I, Univ Edinburgh, Sch Elect & Engn, Kings Bldg,Sanderson Bldg, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2003 VL 15 IS 4 BP 441 EP 455 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 739CP UT ISI:000186324900004 ER PT J AU Pan, GSC Flynn, D TI Information systems project abandonment: A case of political influence by the stakeholders SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INTERORGANIZATIONAL SYSTEMS; IMPLEMENTATION; COMMUNICATION; NARRATIVES; FAILURE; SUCCESS; MIS AB This paper serves as a stimulus to investigators to examine the role organizational politics plays in decisions leading to the abandonment, of information system (IS) projects. While prior research has identified the development of IS projects as a highly political process, where stakeholders may be more concerned about furthering their self-interests than about contributing to the overall success of the project, there has been little research on identifying the political factors contributing to IS project abandonment. Our case demonstrates six types of political action that took place that caused an electronic commerce (e-commerce) protect to be abandoned. Finally, when analyzing mistakes and their principal causes. there is one important lesson that we should learn. Thai is, all organizations make mistakes and there is the potential for learning from project abandonment experiences. C1 Univ Manchester, Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Computat, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. RP Pan, GSC, Univ Manchester, Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Computat, POB 88, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2003 VL 15 IS 4 BP 457 EP 466 PG 10 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 739CP UT ISI:000186324900005 ER PT J AU Fowler, A Gilfillan, M TI A framework for stakeholder integration in higher education information systems projects SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Concern that universities are struggling with the complexities inherent in the implementation of their information systems prompted the HEFCE sponsored study, reported herein. The purpose of the research was to provide a basis for improving the likelihood of success, when undertaking university-based Information System (IS) projects; the particular focus being on ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) based integrated systems. The research outcome was an IS project management framework to provide general guidance and a bridge for co-operation between the very different stakeholder groups involved in such endeavours. Typically these would include senior university management, project teams (including consultants. where appropriate) and system vendors. C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Fowler, A, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2003 VL 15 IS 4 BP 467 EP 489 PG 23 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 739CP UT ISI:000186324900006 ER PT J AU Genus, A Rigakis, A Dickson, K TI Managing large-scale IT projects: The case of National Air Traffic Services' New En Route Centre at Swanwick SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID CHANNEL-TUNNEL; ESCALATION; TRUST AB UK experience with implementation of high-profile IT projects has been rather unhappy, with projects lending to be severely delayed, to operate poorly and to be prone to escalating costs. There, is therefore a need to understand better and to improve the management Of such investments. This paper adopts a synthetic approach to analysing large-scale IT projects, drawing upon research on managing inflexible technology. Protect management and information technology implementation. The paper combines findings from these literatures to produce a detailed set of factors that are known to adversely affect ambitious software and other large-scale development projects. It employs a case study of software development at National Air Traffic Services' NERC project at Swanwick potentially to illustrate these. The paper finds that experience at Swanwick does indeed mirror many of the pitfalls predicted but also that the synthesis of approaches attempted enhances our understanding of the difficulties involved I'll managing large-scale IT projects perhaps rather better than univocal approaches. C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. Brunel Univ, Sch Business & Management, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England. RP Genus, A, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Business, 2nd Floor,Armstrong Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2003 VL 15 IS 4 BP 491 EP 503 PG 13 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 739CP UT ISI:000186324900007 ER PT J AU Brown, HS Vergragt, P Green, K Berchicci, L TI Learning for sustainability transition through bounded socio-technical experiments in personal mobility SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID MANAGEMENT; TECHNOLOGY AB A bounded socio-technical experiment (BSTE) attempts to introduce a new technology, service, or a social arrangement on a small scale. Many such experiments in personal mobility are ongoing worldwide. They are carried out by coalitions of diverse actors, and are driven by long term and large scale visions of advancing society's sustainability agenda. This paper focuses on the processes of higher-order learning that occur through BSTEs. Based on the conceptual frameworks from theories of organizational learning, policy-oriented learning, and diffusion of innovation, we identify two types of learning: the first type occurs among the participants in the experiment and their immediate professional networks; the second type occurs in the society at large. Both types play a key role in the societal transition towards sustainable mobility systems. Two case studies, in which the Design for Sustainability Group at Technical University of Delft has participated, provide empirical data for the analysis. One case consists of development of a three-wheeled bike-plus vehicle (Mitka); the second case seeks to solve mobility problems on the Dutch island of Texel. We find that higher order learning of the first type occurs among the BSTE participants and beyond. Learning can be facilitated by deployment of structured visioning exercises, by diffusion of ideas among related BSTEs, by innovative couplings of problems and solutions, and by creating links among related experiments. Government agencies, universities and other intellectual entrepreneurs have key roles to play in making that happen. The cases provide much less insights about the second type of learning. Research on the latter is necessary. C1 Clark Univ, Environm Sci & Policy Program, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Delft Univ Technol, Fac Ind Design, Design Sustainabil Sect, Delft, Netherlands. UMIST, Ctr Res Org Management & Tech Change, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. RP Brown, HS, Clark Univ, Environm Sci & Policy Program, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 15 IS 3 BP 291 EP 315 PG 25 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 714KX UT ISI:000184914000001 ER PT J AU Pollock, N Williams, R Procter, R TI Fitting standard software packages to non-standard organizations: The 'biography' of an enterprise-wide system SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB This paper investigates the development and implementation of a generic off-the-shelf computer package and the competing pressures for standardization and differentiation as this package is made to fit new organizational settings. The particular focus is on an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system and its application within universities. In order for the ERP system to fit this setting a new module called 'Campus' is being developed. We followed the module as the current 'generic user' embodied in the software was translated to a more 'specific user' ( a number of universities piloting the module) and back once again to a generic form of university user ( the potential 'global university marketplace'). We develop the notion that these systems have a 'biography', which helps us to analyse the evolution of software along its life cycle and provides insights into the different dynamics at play as Campus is translated for use in a number of institutions and countries. The study draws on over three years of ethnographic research conducted in a British University and a major ERP Supplier. C1 Univ Edinburgh, Sch Management, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Pollock, N, Univ Edinburgh, Sch Management, William Robertson Bldg,George Sq, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 15 IS 3 BP 317 EP 332 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 714KX UT ISI:000184914000002 ER PT J AU Brockhoff, K TI Exploring strategic R&D success factors SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID DEVELOPMENT PERFORMANCE; TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT; COMPETENCE; INNOVATION; INDUSTRY; FIRM AB This paper identifies strategic R&D success factors for organizations that produce R&D results for proprietary use. First, six types of R&D organizations are identified by using the criteria of profit orientation and external or internal use of R&D results. Following this, success criteria are identified by studying sample organizations that match the classification criteria. In the concluding section it is shown that important success criteria can be derived, many of which are independent of the organizational arrangement chosen for the generation of R&D results. Among them are: embedment into the scientific system, development of core competencies, securing appropriability, choosing appropriate organizational structures and processes. C1 Otto Beisheim Grad Sch Management, D-56179 Vallendar, Germany. RP Brockhoff, K, Otto Beisheim Grad Sch Management, Burgpl 2, D-56179 Vallendar, Germany. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 15 IS 3 BP 333 EP 348 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 714KX UT ISI:000184914000003 ER PT J AU Magnusson, T TI Commercializing cleaner new technologies: The case of microturbine generators SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID REGIME SHIFTS; SUSTAINABILITY; INNOVATION; GREEN AB Based on a study of the emerging microturbine industry, this paper argues that recent trends towards preventive and product-oriented industrial environmental management are problematic from the technology suppliers' perspective. This is especially evident in the suppliers' initial efforts to define markets and applications during early stages of commercialization. The distinction between product innovation driven by explicit or perceived user needs and innovation in environmental technology driven by regulatory demands has become blurred. This means that suppliers have had to interact simultaneously with both users and regulators in order to articulate the demand and acceptance for the new technology. C1 Linkoping Univ, Dept Management & Econ, SE-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. RP Magnusson, T, Linkoping Univ, Dept Management & Econ, SE-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 15 IS 3 BP 349 EP 361 PG 13 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 714KX UT ISI:000184914000004 ER PT J AU Jeppesen, LB Molin, MJ TI Consumers as co-developers: Learning and innovation outside the firm SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID USERS; CUSTOMIZATION; ORGANIZATIONS; INFORMATION; COMMUNITIES; ECONOMICS; ALLIANCES; TOOLKITS AB This study describes a process in which a firm relies on an external consumer community for innovation. While it has been recognized that users may sometimes innovate, little is known about what commercial firms can do to motivate and capture such innovations and their related benefits. We contribute to strategy literature by suggesting that learning and innovation efforts from which a firm may benefit need not necessarily be located within the organization, but may well reside in the consumer environment. We also contribute to the existing theory on 'user-driven innovation' by showing what firms purposively can do to generate consumer innovation efforts. An explorative case study shows that consumer innovation can be structured, motivated, and partly organized by a commercial firm that organizes the infrastructure for consumers' interactive learning in a public online domain. C1 Copenhagen Sch Econ & Business Adm, Dept Ind Econ & Strategy, DK-2000 Copenhagen, Denmark. Danish Minist Econ & Business Affairs, Ctr Econ & Business Res, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark. RP Jeppesen, LB, Copenhagen Sch Econ & Business Adm, Dept Ind Econ & Strategy, Howitzvej 60, DK-2000 Copenhagen, Denmark. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 15 IS 3 BP 363 EP 383 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 714KX UT ISI:000184914000005 ER PT J AU Uri, ND TI The change in productive efficiency in telecommunications in the United States SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PRICE-CAP REGULATION; US TELECOMMUNICATIONS; TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY; INCENTIVE REGULATION; EUROPEAN RAILWAYS; INDUSTRY; GROWTH; FIRM; PROGRESS; BEHAVIOR AB The question addressed here is whether the adoption of incentive regulation, which has become an important regulatory tool in the telecommunications industry in the USA, has resulted in a change in the technical efficiency of local exchange carriers in the USA. After providing an overview of the nature of incentive regulation, a methodology for measuring technical efficiency and its change is introduced. This is a multiple-output/multiple-input distance function approach to measuring technical efficiency. The results of implementing this approach for 19 local exchange carriers for the 1988 - 2001 period indicate that in the production of local service, intrastate toll/access service, and interstate access to local loops, there was no change in technical efficiency between the 1988 - 1990 period and the 1991 - 2001 period, something that incentive regulation was specifically designed to promote. C1 Media Bur, Ind Anal Div, Fed Commun Commiss, Washington, DC 20554 USA. RP Uri, ND, Media Bur, Ind Anal Div, Fed Commun Commiss, RM 2-C311,445 12th St SW, Washington, DC 20554 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2003 VL 15 IS 3 BP 385 EP 400 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 714KX UT ISI:000184914000006 ER PT J AU Martin, S TI The evaluation of strategic research partnerships SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; RESEARCH JOINT VENTURES; IMPERFECTLY APPROPRIABLE RESEARCH; PHARMACEUTICAL-INDUSTRY; BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY; TECHNOLOGY POLICY; MARKET-STRUCTURE; INNOVATION; ORGANIZATION; COOPERATION AB Policy implications of strategic research alliances are analyzed, with emphasis on government-private sector cooperation, government support for private sector innovation, and evaluation of such government programs. C1 Purdue Univ, Krannert Sch Management, Dept Econ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. RP Martin, S, Purdue Univ, Krannert Sch Management, Dept Econ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 159 EP 176 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700002 ER PT J AU Combs, KL Link, AN TI Innovation policy in search of an economic foundation: The case of research partnerships in the United States SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Research partnerships are not a new organizational form, but since the mid 1980s the US government, like other national governments, has provided a favorable environment for them to flourish. The purpose of this paper is to address the question: What is the economic foundation upon which public support of research partnerships in the USA is based? In addition, given that foundation: What additional information is needed to increase the efficacy of the current policy environment? We summarize the relevant literature and find that as a whole, the theoretical literature makes clear that research partnerships are a socially beneficial organizational form once formed. However, more empirical research is needed of a different type that has occupied the journals to date. We offer an agenda for such research that will complement the policy process. C1 St Thomas Univ, Minneapolis, MN 55403 USA. Univ N Carolina, Greensboro, NC 27412 USA. RP Combs, KL, St Thomas Univ, Minneapolis, MN 55403 USA. CR BROD AC, 2001, INNOVATION POLICY KN, P105 HAGEDOORN J, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P567 JANKOWSKI J, 1991, P NSF WORKSH NAT SCI KOGUT B, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V9, P319 VONORTAS NS, 1997, COOPERATION RES DEV, P77 NR 5 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 177 EP 187 PG 11 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700003 ER PT J AU Mowery, DC TI Using cooperative research and development agreements as S&T indicators: What do we have and what would we like? SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Mowery, DC, Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. CR *US DEP COMM, 2000, TECH TRANSF 2000 MAK ADAMS JD, 2000, 7612 NBER BOZEMAN B, 1998, LTD BY DESIGN GRINDLEY P, 1994, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V13, P723 GUSTON DH, 1998, INVESTING INNOVATION HALL BH, 2000, 7643 NBER HAM RM, 1998, RES POLICY, V26, P661 HOLSTEIN WJ, 1998, US NEWS WORLD R 0518 JAFFE AB, 1999, 7064 NBER LEOPOLD G, 2000, EE TIMES 0602 LINDEN G, 2000, BUSINESS POLITICS, V2, P93 PAUGH J, 2000, COMMUNICATION 0612 NR 12 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 189 EP 205 PG 17 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700004 ER PT J AU Siegel, DS TI Data requirements for assessing the private and social returns to strategic research partnerships: Analysis and recommendations SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PRODUCTIVITY; IMPACT; MARKET AB Existing studies of Strategic Research Partnerships (SRPs) suffer from data limitations that preclude an accurate assessment of the private and social returns to these activities. To address these limitations in a cost-efficient manner, statistical agencies should focus their data collection effort on public-private SRPs and measures of output and performance , including the role of SRPs in fostering technological diffusion and the creation of new products, firms, and industries. The collection of similar information from (observationally equivalent) firms not engaged in SRPs, including firms that applied for public funds and did not receive them, would also greatly improve our ability to evaluate government R&D programs. Government agencies should also partner with private organizations that have compiled data on SRPs and facilitate linkages between existing governments' datasets on SRPs and economic performance. The use of qualitative data should also be encouraged. C1 Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Econ, Troy, NY 12180 USA. RP Siegel, DS, Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Econ, 3502 Russell Sage Lab, Troy, NY 12180 USA. CR *ASS U TECHN MAN, 2000, AUTM LIC SURV FISC Y *STAT CAN, 2001, SURV INT PROP COMM H ADAMS JD, 1996, RAND J ECON, V27, P700 HAGEDOORN J, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P567 HENDERSON R, 1998, REV ECON STAT, V80, P119 JAFFE AB, 1993, Q J ECON, V108, P577 LICHTENBERG FR, 1991, ECON INQ, V29, P203 LINK AN, 1996, REV IND ORGAN, V11, P737 LINK AN, 1998, PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILIT LINK AN, 2001, INT J IND ORGAN, V19, P763 MARTIN S, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P437 MCWILLIAMS A, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P626 SIEGEL D, 1994, ECON INQ, V32, P11 SIEGEL D, 1997, REV ECON STAT, V79, P68 SIEGEL DS, 2003, RES POLICY, V32, P27 TRAJTENBERG M, 1990, EC ANAL PRODUCT INNO NR 16 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 207 EP 225 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700005 ER PT J AU Sakakibara, M Dodgson, M TI Strategic research partnerships: Empirical evidence from Asia SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; COOPERATIVE RESEARCH; DEVELOPMENT CONSORTIA; INDUSTRIAL-POLICY; HETEROGENEITY; CAPABILITIES; COMPETITION; INNOVATION; ALLIANCES; JAPAN AB This paper evaluates the role Strategic Research Partnerships (SRPs) play in Asia. Specific Asian institutional settings influence the roles of SRPs. Japan is regarded as a forerunner in the practice of SRPs. In Japan, lack of spillover channels, limited opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, weak university research and pressure for internal diversification motivate firms to form SRPs. In Korea, SRPs are regarded as a means to promote large-scale research projects. In Taiwan, SRPs are formed to facilitate technological diffusion. Empirical findings on SRPs, focusing on government-sponsored R&D consortia in Japan, are summarized. Issues regarding SRP formation, their effect on R&D spending of participating firms, and productivity, are examined. Reference is made to alternative forms of measurement of SRPs and their potential application to Asian countries is assessed. Enhancing the capacity of policy-makers to assess the extent and contribution of SRPs is considered to be a priority. C1 Univ Calif Los Angeles, Anderson Grad Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. Univ Queensland, Technol & Innovat Management Ctr, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. RP Sakakibara, M, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Anderson Grad Sch Management, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. CR *COUNC MIN IND TEC, 1991, 30 YEAR HIST MIN IND *DEST, 2002, SCI TECHN GLANC BAUM JAC, 1991, ADMIN SCI QUART, V36, P187 BAUMOL WJ, 1993, ENTREPRENEURSHIP MAN, P193 BORYS B, 1989, ACAD MANAGE REV, V14, P234 BRANSTETTER L, 1998, J IND ECON, V46, P207 BRANSTETTER LG, 2002, AM ECON REV, V92, P143 CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 COHEN WM, 1998, R D SPILLOVERS PATEN DODGSON M, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL COLLAB DODGSON M, 1996, EFFECTIVE INNOVATION DODGSON M, 1997, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V1, P53 DODGSON M, 2000, RES EVALUAT, V8, P101 DODGSON M, 2000, TECHNOLOGY LEARNING DODGSON M, 2002, PUBLIC POLICY ASIA DORE R, 2000, STOCK MARKET CAPITAL DOZ YL, 1987, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V17, P31 DUYSTERS G, 2000, TECHNOLOGICAL LEARNI, P193 EISENHARDT KM, 1996, ORGAN SCI, V7, P136 GRANSTRAND O, 1997, CALIF MANAGE REV, V39, P8 GULATI R, 1999, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V20, P397 HAGEDOORN J, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P371 HAGEDOORN J, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P567 HALL P, 2001, VARIETIES CAPITALISM HARRIGAN KR, 1985, STRATEGIES JOINT VEN HARRIGAN KR, 1986, MANAGING JOINT VENTU HLADIK KJ, 1988, COOPERATIVE STRATEGI, P187 HOBDAY M, 1994, HDB IND INNOVATION, P94 JORDE TM, 1990, J ECON PERSPECT, V4, P75 KATZ ML, 1986, RAND J ECON, V17, P527 KILLING JP, 1983, STRATEGIES JOINT VEN KIM L, 1997, IMITATION INNOVATION KLETTE TJ, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P471 KODAMA F, 1995, EMERGING PATTERNS IN KOGUT B, 1992, NETWORKS ORG STRUCTU, P348 LEE WY, 2000, TECHNOLOGY LEARNING LEVIN RC, 1987, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V3, P783 MATHEWS JA, 2000, TIGER TECHNOLOGY CRE MCEVILY B, 1999, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V20, P1133 OSBORN RN, 1990, ACAD MANAGE J, V33, P503 PORTER ME, 1992, CAPITAL CHOICES CHAN PUCIK V, 1988, HUMAN RESOURCE MANAG, V27, P77 REDDING SG, 1993, SPIRIT CHINESE CAPIT RUSH H, 1996, TECHNOLOGY I STRATEG SAKAKIBARA M, 1994, THESIS HARVARD U SAKAKIBARA M, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P447 SAKAKIBARA M, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V18, P143 SAKAKIBARA M, 2001, J IND ECON, V49, P181 SAKAKIBARA M, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P993 SAKAKIBARA M, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P673 SAKAKIBARA M, 2002, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V23, P1033 SAKAKIBARA M, 2003, MANAGERIAL DECISION, V24, P51 SAKO M, 1992, PRICES QUALITY TRUST SAXONHOUSE GR, 1985, RES SEM INT EC SPENCE AM, 1984, ECONOMETRICA, V52, P101 VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCE INNOVATION NR 57 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 227 EP 245 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700006 ER PT J AU Scott, JT TI Absorptive capacity and the efficiency of research partnerships SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION AB The paper advances the hypothesis that research partnerships expand a firm's absorptive capacity. The paper juxtaposes the multimarket contact of firms with their patent cross-citations to provide a test of the absorptive capacity hypothesis in general and an indirect test of the hypothesis that research partnerships expand absorptive capacity. The findings support the hypotheses. In the context of those findings, the paper discusses the role for public policy toward research partnerships. C1 Dartmouth Coll, Dept Econ, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. RP Scott, JT, Dartmouth Coll, Dept Econ, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. CR AUDRETSCH DB, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P145 BALDWIN WL, 1987, MARKET STRUCTURE TEC, CH2 COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 HALL BH, IN PRESS REV EC STAT JANKOWSKI JE, 2001, STRATEGIC RES PARTNE KEALEY T, 2000, UNPUB SCI INVISIBLE KIM L, 1998, ORGAN SCI, V9, P506 LEYDEN DP, 1999, INT J IND ORGAN, V17, P575 LINK AN, 1998, PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILIT LINK AN, 2000, SMALL BUSINESS INNOV, P275 LINK AN, 2001, INT J IND ORGAN, V19, P763 LINK AN, 2002, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V11, P211 MARTIN S, 2002, J ECON, V75, P1 MOWERY DC, 1996, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V17, P77 MOWERY DC, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P507 NELSON R, 1959, J POLITICAL EC, V67, P297 SCOTT JT, 1993, PURPOSIVE DIVERSIFIC, CH8 SCOTT JT, 2000, REV IND ORGAN, V17, P1 SCOTT JT, 2001, ADV STRAT M, V18, P175 TASSEY G, 1997, EC R D POLICY ZAHRA SA, 2002, ACAD MANAGE REV, V27, P185 NR 21 TC 3 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 247 EP 253 PG 7 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700007 ER PT J AU Hemphill, TA Vonortas, NS TI Strategic research partnerships: A managerial perspective SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESOURCE-BASED VIEW; RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; JOINT VENTURES; COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE; INTERFIRM COOPERATION; INTANGIBLE RESOURCES; ALLIANCES; INNOVATION; NETWORKS; OPTION AB Private sector incentives to participate in research partnerships can be grouped roughly into two categories: cost-economizing incentives and strategic incentives. This paper summarizes the argument in two streams of thought that are often identified with these two sides: the transaction-cost/incomplete contracts approach and the strategic management approach. The paper recounts business motives to engage in research partnerships in each and points out that differentiating between more traditional economic perspectives (transaction costs, incomplete contracts) and strategic management/organizational theory perspectives (strategic networks, resource-dependent view, dynamic capabilities, knowledge-based view, organizational learning, options approach) may not be as sharp as one might suppose at first. The complementary nature of these perspectives should be encouraging for theoreticians looking for a more integrated model of collaboration. C1 George Washington Univ, Ctr Int Sci & Technol Policy, Washington, DC 20052 USA. George Washington Univ, Dept Econ, Washington, DC 20052 USA. George Washington Univ, Dept Strateg Management & Publ Policy, Sch Business & Publ Management, Washington, DC 20052 USA. RP Vonortas, NS, George Washington Univ, Ctr Int Sci & Technol Policy, 2013 G St NW Suite 201, Washington, DC 20052 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 255 EP 271 PG 17 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700008 ER PT J AU Audretsch, DB Feldman, MP TI Small-firm strategic research partnerships: The case of biotechnology SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS; IMPERFECT INFORMATION; INNOVATION; INTEGRATION; INDUSTRY; ORGANIZATION; ALLIANCES AB This paper provides an overview of the theoretical motivation and the empirical literature on small firm strategic alliances in biotechnology, an industry where these alliances have proliferated. We begin by examining the alliance strategy for knowledge-based small firms in general and then turn our attention to the case of biotech. C1 Indiana Univ, Inst Dev Strategies, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Johns Hopkins Univ, Baltimore, MD 21217 USA. RP Audretsch, DB, Indiana Univ, Inst Dev Strategies, SPEA Suite 201, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JAN PY 2003 VL 15 IS 2 BP 273 EP 288 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 678LM UT ISI:000182868700009 ER PT J AU Brown, N Michael, M TI A sociology of expectations: Retrospecting prospects and prospecting retrospects SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Future expectations and promises are crucial to providing the dynamism and momentum upon which so many ventures in science and technology depend. This is especially the case for premarket applications where practical utility and value has yet to be demonstrated and where investment must be mobilised. For instance, clinical biotechnology ( including a wide range of genetic therapeutic and engineering applications) has been at the centre of ferocious debates about whether or not promises and expectations will be realized. In some cases, the failure of expectations has severely damaged the reputation and credibility of professions, institutions and industry. The need for a better analytical understanding of the dynamics of expectations in innovation is both necessary and timely. This paper develops the basis for a sociology of expectations, drawing on recent writing within Science and Technology Studies (STS) and case studies of biotechnology innovation. In particular, we offer a model for understanding how expectations will predictably vary according to some key parameters. Such factors include the degree to which technologies and innovation relationships are either relatively established or newly emergent. Expectations will also vary according actors' relative closeness and involvement in knowledge production itself. The paper proceeds by analyzing the way expectations in clinical biotechnology have changed over time. That is, we compare the way the future was once represented with the way it has been represented more recently. The paper concludes by offering a means by which it is possible to map or model the 'situatedness of expectations'. C1 Univ York, Sci & Technol Studies Unit, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. Univ London Goldsmiths Coll, Dept Sociol, London SE14 6NW, England. RP Brown, N, Univ York, Sci & Technol Studies Unit, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 3 EP 18 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500001 ER PT J AU Schweizer, TS TI Managing interactions between technological and stylistic innovation in the media industries SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID ORGANIZATIONAL IDENTITY; COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE; NATIONAL STYLES; REPUTATION; DESIGN; PREFERENCES; PERSPECTIVE AB The processes of technological innovation have been widely researched, but their interactions with another type of innovation that is particularly important in sectors like the fashion and the media content industries have been neglected: stylistic innovation. This paper puts forward the idea that a better understanding of such interactions between content and technology in the media industries might help explaining differences in the receptiveness of firms towards new technological opportunities. The nature of the interactions, so it is argued in this paper, depends on three groups of key factors at the level of the product, the organization and the industry: among them, first, the locations of the different types of innovation in the media product's components; second, organizational factors like the identity and the reputation of a firm with respect to the above types of innovation; and third, the industry-specific characteristics of the certification environment in which the firms operate. Awards are discussed as specific instantiations of micro certification environments indicating quality with respect to stylistic and/or technological product features. To round off the theoretical part, a definition of stylistic innovation is developed with reference to the key concepts discussed in this paper. Within the media sector the literary publishing industry has been chosen to provide the subject of the empirical part. Two cases related to the introduction of eBook technology are presented: one is a study of the first digital literary publisher in Europe and the other is a case study of the first international eBook award, which mixes technological and stylistic criteria. Theory and cases lead to a number of hypotheses offered as potential departure points for future research into the interactions between innovation in style and technology. C1 Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam Sch Management, Dept Technol & Innovat Management, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. RP Schweizer, TS, Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam Sch Management, Dept Technol & Innovat Management, Burg Oudlaan 50,POB 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 19 EP 41 PG 23 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500002 ER PT J AU Onyeiwu, S TI Some determinants of core competencies: Evidence from a binary-logit analysis SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Despite the increasing recognition of the salience of core competencies in the process of competition, the notion of core competencies has remained largely ambiguous in the literature. Neither is it clear what strategies, institutions, and resources are necessary for developing and sustaining core competencies. This paper uses the binary-logit model to explore the determinants of core competencies, and identifies investment in intangible assets, marketing/promotional activities and firm size as significant determinants of core competencies. An evaluation of the technology strategies of two competence-seeking firms also points to the increasing salience of intangible assets, decentralization/globalization of the R&D function, and the intensive search for knowledge and capabilities. C1 Allegheny Coll, Dept Econ, Meadville, PA 16335 USA. RP Onyeiwu, S, Allegheny Coll, Dept Econ, Meadville, PA 16335 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 43 EP 63 PG 21 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500003 ER PT J AU Bruque, S Moyano, J Vargas, A Hernandez, MJ TI Ownership structure, technological endowment and competitive advantage: Do democracy and business fit? SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESOURCE-BASED PERSPECTIVE; FIRM PERFORMANCE; INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY; STRATEGY; VIEW; FRAMEWORK; INDUSTRY; MATTER AB The current study provides a model that aims to explain the origin of the competitive advantage of organizations in terms of the ownership structure. We have also studied the interactions between IT use and ownership structure. To reach these objectives, we have classified the organizations in two groups using the cooperative character criterion. The results show that cooperative firms achieve a superior competitive advantage regardless of the amount of IT that the firms use. The study is focused on the Spanish Pharmaceutical Distribution Industry. C1 Univ Jaen, Dept Business Adm Accounting & Sociol, Jaen 23009, Spain. Univ Huelva, Dept Management & Mkt, Huelva 21002, Spain. RP Bruque, S, Univ Jaen, Dept Business Adm Accounting & Sociol, Campus Lagunillas,Edif D-3, Jaen 23009, Spain. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 65 EP 79 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500004 ER PT J AU Jamison, A Hard, M TI The story-lines of technological change: Innovation, construction and appropriation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB The paper contrasts three story-lines of technological change, which represent three different ways to think about technology as a social process. Each story-line, or discourse, or narrative strategy, has its own special terminology and is derived from particular academic fields and intellectual traditions. And each has different ways of considering the forms of social agency that are relevant in relation to technological change. For the story-line of innovation, the relevant agents are the producers of commercial products, often referred to as systems of innovation; for the story-line of construction, agency is conceptualized as those particular actors that have an interest in a particular artifact and its promulgation. For the story-line of appropriation, the social agency is differentiated into various user communities. When we analyze the relations between technology and society, it is important to know which kind of story we are telling and which story-line, or narrative strategy we are following. C1 Univ Aalborg, Aalborg, Denmark. TH Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany. RP Jamison, A, Univ Aalborg, Aalborg, Denmark. CR BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BERGER P, 1966, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU BIJKER W, 1995, BICYCLES BAKELITE BU BOYLE G, 1976, RADICAL TECHNOLOGY CALLON M, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION EYERMAN R, 1991, SOCIAL MOVEMENTS COG GASKELL G, 2001, BIOTECHNOLOGY 1996 2 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GIEDEON S, 1948, MECH TAKES COMMAND HAJER M, 1995, POLITICS ENV DISCOUR HARD M, 1998, INTELLECTUAL APPROPR HOUNSHELL D, 1984, AM SYSTEM MASS PRODU HUGHES T, 1983, NETWORKS POWER ELECT JAMISON A, 1989, TECHNOL CULT, V30, P505 JAMISON A, 1990, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V2, P111 JAMISON A, 1994, UNCERTAIN QUEST SCI LATOUR B, 1988, PASTEURIZATION FRANC MACKENZIE D, 1999, SOCIAL SHAPING TECHN MARCUSE H, 1964, ONE DIMENSIONAL MAN MUMFORD L, 1934, TECHNICS CIVILIZATIO NELKIN D, 1979, CONTROVERSY POLITICS NOBLE D, 1977, AM DESIGN NOBLE D, 1984, FORCES PRODUCTION SO NOWOTNY H, 1979, COUNTER MOVEMENTS SC PHILLIMORE J, 2001, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V13, P23 SCHUMACHER EF, 1974, SMALL BEAUTIFUL STUD SIMON H, 1969, SCI ARTIFICIAL SORENSEN K, 2000, UNDERSTANDING TRUST, P237 TOKAR B, 2001, REDESIGNING LIFE WOR NR 30 TC 2 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 81 EP 91 PG 11 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500005 ER PT J AU Hemphill, TA TI Cooperative strategy, technology innovation and competition policy in the United States and the European Union SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH JOINT VENTURES; ANTITRUST AB The widespread adoption of joint ventures in the 1980s and strategic alliances in the 1990s by a spectrum of businesses across industries has resulted in cooperative strategy emerging as the corporate and business strategy of the global economy. Of further significance, however, is the relaxation by antitrust authorities in the USA and the EU of policies forbidding or restricting horizontal or competitor collaborations. Beginning in the 1980s, legislation, regulations and guidelines have established a business environment conducive to competitor collaborations. This evolution in competition policy is justified by the need for accelerating technology-based innovations at the firm level, thus improving competitiveness at the national level. The US government and the European Commission have provided firms with 'safe harbors' to develop strategic technology alliances with competitors, albeit with notable differences in specific market share thresholds and emphases on qualitative versus quantitative perspectives in their respective competition policy frameworks. C1 George Washington Univ, Sch Business & Publ Management, Dept Strateg Management & Publ Policy, Washington, DC 20052 USA. RP Hemphill, TA, George Washington Univ, Sch Business & Publ Management, Dept Strateg Management & Publ Policy, Washington, DC 20052 USA. 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PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 93 EP 101 PG 9 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500006 ER PT J AU Scott, G Walter, Z TI DELPHI findings about Internet systems problems, with implications for other technologies SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID KEY ISSUES; PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT; MANAGEMENT AB This article first reports the results of an on-line DELPHI Questionnaire study of the management problems of Internet/Web systems development. The study results indicate two 'most important' clusters of problems: those that are concerned with strategy-related issues, and those that are concerned with data integrity and privacy issues. The first group is generally rated as being more important than the second. The article briefly discusses the overall results of the study. Thereafter the article is devoted to the 'strategy' category of problems, with attention to the findings of other studies, including six prior similar-methodology DELPHI studies involving problems of managing technologies in other technology realms. Strategy problems are ranked among the most important technology management problems in all of the fields of these studies. A broad industry and academic effort to deal with the strategy and planning problem seems necessary to establish strategy theory and best practices for planning that are useful across many technology fields. C1 Univ Colorado, Coll Business & Adm, Denver, CO 80217 USA. Univ Connecticut, Dept Operat & Informat Management, Storrs, CT 06269 USA. RP Scott, G, Univ Connecticut, Dept Operat & Informat Management, Storrs, CT 06269 USA. CR BALL L, 1982, MIS Q, V6, P19 BRANCHEAU JC, 1987, MIS QUART, V11, P23 BRANCHEAU JC, 1996, MIS QUART, V20, P225 DICKSON GW, 1984, MIS QUART, V8, P135 HARTOG C, 1986, MIS QUART, V10, P351 HERBERT M, 1986, DATAMATION, V32, P79 JIANG JJ, 2001, J ASS INFORMATION SY, V2 KLEIN JA, 1991, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V3, P251 MINTZBERG H, 1994, HARVARD BUS REV, V72, P107 MINTZBERG H, 1998, STRATEGY SAFARI, P406 NIEDERMAN F, 1991, MIS Q, V15, P475 SCOTT G, 2001, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V13, P343 SCOTT GM, 2000, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V17, P57 SCOTT GM, 2001, R&D MANAGE, V31, P15 SCOTT, 2001, SYSTEMS, V2 NR 15 TC 2 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 103 EP 115 PG 13 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500007 ER PT J AU Wheale, PR Amin, LH TI Bursting the dot.com 'bubble': A case study in investor behaviour SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; STOCKS AB The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter considered innovation to be the driving force of economic growth and argued that innovations were also the main cause of cyclical fluctuations in the economy, an idea now well established in the economic literature. In this paper, the authors attempt to gain insights into the behaviour exhibited by investors before and after the market correction of the newly established Internet sector - a technology with revolutionary potential - in the Spring of 2000 by structuring their analysis around the psychological themes of heuristic-driven bias, frame dependence, and inefficient prices. Linear regression models are constructed using data collected on publicly traded Internet companies, market performance both before and after the collapse of the Internet sector stock prices in an attempt to assess whether or not market returns were correlated with certain specific measures of corporate internet performance. Finally, the authors draw inferences relating to the psychology of investor behaviour during this period based upon their empirical analysis, and conclude by summarizing the managerial implications of their findings. C1 Univ Surrey, Surrey European Business Sch, Guildford GU2 7XH, Surrey, England. Future Elect, Colnbrook, Berks, England. RP Wheale, PR, Univ Surrey, Surrey European Business Sch, Guildford GU2 7XH, Surrey, England. CR BASU S, 1983, J FINANC ECON, V12, P129 BESLEY S, 2000, ESSENTIALS MANAGERIA CHANCELLOR E, 1999, DEVIL TAKE HINDMOST CLARK J, 1984, LONG WAVES WORLD EC CLELAND S, 2002, FINANCIAL TIMES 1009, P23 COPELAND T, 2000, VALUATION MEASURING FAMA EF, 1970, J FINANC, V25, P383 FOSTER J, 1999, DATA ANAL USING SPSS FREEMAN C, 1982, EC IND INNOVATION WO FROMLET H, 2001, BUSINESS EC, V36, P63 GALBRAITH JK, 1977, GREAT CRASH, P72 GHAURI P, 1995, RES METHODS BUSINESS GROSS L, 1982, ART SELLING INTANGIB HAND J, 2000, ROLE ACCOUNTING FUND JAHNKE W, 2000, J FINANCIAL PLANNING, V13, P46 KAHNEMAN D, 1979, ECONOMETRICA, V47, P263 KAHNEMAN D, 1998, J PORTFOLIO MANAGE, V24, P52 KING A, 2000, STRATEGIC FINANCE, V81, P28 KOLLER T, 2001, MCKINSEY Q, V2, P103 KYLE AS, 1985, ECONOMETRICA, V53, P1315 MOWERY D, 1979, RES POLICY, V8, P102 NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 OPPENHEIMER P, 1996, ANATOMY STOCK MARKET PALLANT J, 2001, SPPS SURVIVAL MANUAL PAVITT K, 1979, FUTURES, V11, P458 PENDLEBURY M, 2001, CO ACCOUNTS ANAL INT ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL SAUNDERS M, 2000, RES METHODS BUSINESS SCHUMPETER J, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES THEO SCHUMPETER J, 1966, INNOVATION EC GROWTH SHEFRIN H, 2000, GREED FEAR SHILLER R, 2000, IRRATIONAL EXUBERANC SHLEIFER A, 2000, INEFFICIENT MARKETS STATMAN M, 1987, J FINANC QUANT ANAL, V22, P353 THALER RH, 1993, ADV BEHAV FINANCE NR 35 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 117 EP 136 PG 20 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500008 ER PT J AU Molina, A TI The digital divide: The need for a global e-inclusion movement SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Today there is consensus in that the use of ICTs brings major opportunities as well as threats to the development of poorer countries and communities. This consensus is underpinning the emergence of many initiatives aimed at tackling the challenge of the digital divide. This paper examines the nature and magnitude of the digital divide and stresses the importance of the formation of a global movement focused on the e-inclusion. It describes the experiences of one project from Chile aimed at bringing hope to people excluded by disability and poverty. The paper ends with a number of ideas to help stimulate the formation of the global movement. A brief Postscript is added to inform of the practical steps that have followed the writing of the original paper (Molina, A., 'The Digital Divide and The Stockholm and Rome Challenge', paper presented at the Third Global Forum: 'Fostering Democracy and Development through E-Government', 15-17 March 2001, Naples, Italy) and to invite everybody to join it starting by visiting the website www.e-inclusionsite.org. C1 Univ Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Molina, A, Univ Edinburgh, Old Surg Hall,High Sch Yards, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ, Midlothian, Scotland. CR 2000, BUSINESS WEEK 1218 *AFR DEV BANK AS D, 2000, OK SUMM GLOB POV REP, G8 *COMM EUR COMM, 1994, ACT PLAN EUR WAY INF *INF TECHN GROUP, READ NETW WORLD GUID *ITU, 1999, CHALL NETW INT DEV E *MIT MED LAB, DIG NAT NEW RES CONS *OECD, 1999, EC SOC IMP EL COMM P *US DEP COMM NAT T, 1999, FALL NET DEF DIG DIV FREEMAN C, 1999, EUR SOC RES C 28 30, P2 GIDDENS A, 2000, 3RD WAY RENEWAL SOCI HUNT P, 2001, EJISDC, V4, P1 LARSEN F, 2001, FIGARO 0101 LUMBRERAS M, 1909, INTERACTIVE 3D SOUND MOLINA A, 1999, GLOBAL CITIES DIALOG MOLINA A, 2000, STOCKH CHALL AW C ST MOLINA A, 2001, 3 GLOB FOR FOST DEM PRAHALAD CK, 2000, MANAGING POOR PROENZA F, 2001, TELECENTERS SOCIOECO QUAYNOR N, 2001, C DIG INCL IMP CHALL NR 19 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2003 VL 15 IS 1 BP 137 EP 152 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 660UZ UT ISI:000181853500009 ER PT J AU Spinardi, G TI Industrial exploitation of carbon fibre in the UK, USA and Japan SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB This paper describes the invention of high strength carbon fibre and its subsequent exploitation by three companies: Courtaulds in the UK, Hercules in the USA and Toray in Japan. Of these, Toray has become the most successful. Courtaulds ceased carbon fibre production in 1991, whilst Hercules sold its carbon fibre plant in 1996. Without a special relationship with a large local market (such as the US Department of Defence), success in the manufacture of an internationally traded material such as carbon fibre depends on achieving competitive quality and price. Toray's consistent investment in process technology improvements has enabled them to become the world leader in carbon fibre production. This has been achieved, despite periods of negligible profitability, because of the characteristics of the Japanese innovation system. C1 Univ Edinburgh, Res Ctr Social Sci, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Spinardi, G, Univ Edinburgh, Res Ctr Social Sci, Old Surg Hall,High Sch Yards, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ, Midlothian, Scotland. CR *JAP GOV EC PLANN, 1990, EC SURVEY JAPAN AUG BACON R, 1986, HIGH PERFORM POLYM, P343 DEVAULT J, 1999, COMMUNICATION 0522 DYER D, 1990, LABORS MODERN HERCUL, P413 FRANSMAN M, 1994, HDB IND INNOVATION, P68 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC HIRATA M, 1998, COMMUNICATION 0521 JOHNSON C, 1982, MITI JAP MIRACLE JOHNSON J, 1997, COMMUNICATION 0408 MOORE RJ, COMMUNICATION MORETON R, 1997, COMMUNICATION 0206 RUSSELL CA, 1996, THESIS U MANCHESTER, P128 STANDAGE AE, 1966, NATURA, V211, P169 THOMA K, 1996, SHOU DAI RON SYU, V48, P5 THORNE DJ, 1985, HDB COMPOSITES, V1, P480 WATT W, 1972, CARBON, V10, P121 NR 16 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 14 IS 4 BP 381 EP 398 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 618EK UT ISI:000179405400001 ER PT J AU Jacquier-Roux, V Bourgeois, B TI New networks of technological creation in energy industries: Reassessment of the roles of equipment suppliers and operators SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Energy industry companies have succeeded in maintaining and even increasing their production of knowledge during the last 15 years (1985/1998) within a financial context of reducing their in-house R&D expenditures. To understand these apparently paradoxical changes, elements of analysis are sought within an evolutionary framework, and especially referring to the related developments to network-firms, user-supplier relationships, and interactive nature of innovation processes. Empirical data are provided on patents granted to a sample of the top 15 world largest companies, both operators and equipment suppliers, and for the oil production and power generation industries. Interpretation of the results suggests that two dynamics ought to be distinguished. On the one side, dynamics of the networks of technological creation are characterized by a movement upstream of the head of the network towards suppliers. On the other side networks of creation of competitive advantages and bargaining power continue to be based on the operators and their strategies of adaptation to the constraints and opportunities of their institutional, financial and competitive environment. C1 Univ Pierre Mendes France, UFR DGRS, IREPD, Grenoble, France. Univ Pierre Mendes France, UFR DGES, IEPE, F-38040 Grenoble 9, France. RP Jacquier-Roux, V, Univ Pierre Mendes France, UFR DGRS, IREPD, Grenoble, France. CR *UNIPEDE, 1998, R D UNIPEDE COUNTR O AMENDOLA M, 1988, DYNAMIQUE EC INNOVAT CALLON M, 1993, RECHERCHE INNOVATION CANTWELL J, 1999, INNOVATION POLICY GL, P225 COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 DEFEUILLEY C, 2000, ANN PUBLIC COOPERATI, V71, P21 DOOLEY JJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P547 FORAY D, 1990, REV ECON, V41, P501 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GUERCINI S, 1997, 39 SPRUSTEEP HOWELLS J, 1997, 6 CRIC KESSELER A, 1997, ACT GERP, V19, P91 KLINE SJ, 1997, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG, P275 LUNDVALL B, 1992, TECHNOLOGIE RICHESSE, P355 LUNDVALL BA, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P349 PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC ROSENBLUM S, 2000, RES POLICY, P1185 SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHUMPTER JA, 1912, THEORIE WIRKSCHAFT L THOMAS S, 1995, 19 SPRUSTEEP NR 21 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 14 IS 4 BP 399 EP 417 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 618EK UT ISI:000179405400002 ER PT J AU Fontes, M Padua, M TI The impact of biotechnology pervasiveness and user heterogeneity on the organization of public sector research SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY; TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER; INDUSTRY; UNIVERSITIES; INNOVATION; SCIENCE; COMMERCIALIZATION; INSTITUTIONS; ECONOMICS; DIVERSITY AB What is the appropriate institutional set-up for knowledge generation and use in biotechnology? This paper contributes to the debate by addressing the combined-and potentially conflicting-influence, upon the definition of institutional policies and structures, of two of biotechnology's distinctive features. First, its science-based nature, which defines a set of requirements concerning the production of knowledge and the ability to use it; and second its wide applicability, which requires the consideration of the diversity of technological and organizational capabilities displayed by the whole range of potential biotechnology users. In particular the study investigates whether and to what extent institutional models, whose emergence was largely associated with the behaviour of advanced industrial users from science based sectors, are suitable to the requirements of a more heterogeneous set of biotechnology users, and therefore can withstand a variety of industrial specializations. This issue is addressed empirically by analysing the evolution of the scientific and technological infrastructure of Portuguese biotechnology, as well as the strategic positioning and actual behaviour of individual research and technology organizations. The paper discusses the effectiveness of the current institutional model in Portugal and the implications of a mismatch between biotechnology institutional research frameworks and the industrial structure, for organizations, individual researchers and firms. C1 Inst Nacl Engn & Technol Ind, Dept Modelacao & Simulacao, P-1649038 Lisbon, Portugal. Univ Brighton, Ctr Res Innovat Management CENTRIM, Brighton BN2 4AT, E Sussex, England. RP Fontes, M, Inst Nacl Engn & Technol Ind, Dept Modelacao & Simulacao, Estrada Paco Lumiar 22, P-1649038 Lisbon, Portugal. CR *MCT, POCTI PROGR OP CIENC *MCT, 1997, LAB EST SYST REQ REE ALLANSDOTTIR A, 2001, INNOVATION COMPETITI ARGYRES NS, 1998, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V35, P427 AUDRETSCH DB, 1999, J EVOL ECON, V9, P97 BALTHASAR A, 2000, TECHNOVATION, V20, P523 BARTHOLOMEW S, 1997, J INT BUS STUD, V28, P241 BONACCORSI A, 1994, R&D MANAGE, V24, P229 BURATTI N, 1991, EC POLITICA IND, V69, P53 BUTLER S, 1998, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V2, P79 CASSIER M, 1999, INT J BIOTECHNOL, V1, P82 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 COOMBS R, 2000, 5 CRIC DASGUPTA P, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P487 DAVID PA, 1999, ORG EC INNOVATION EU EDLER J, 2002, R&D MANAGE, V32, P149 ETZKOWITZ H, 1996, MINERVA, V34, P259 ETZKOWITZ H, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P313 FAULKNER W, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P673 FELLER I, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P335 FONTES M, 0132000 DMS FONTES M, 0142000 DMS FONTES M, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P497 FRANSMAN M, 1994, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIO, P41 GEUNA A, 1999, EC KNOWLEDGE PRODUCT GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GODIN B, 2000, SOCIOL SOC, V32, P11 GODINHO M, 1997, INT C TECHN POL SEV GONARD T, 1999, R&D MANAGE, V29, P143 JONESEVANS D, 1999, R&D MANAGE, V29, P47 LEE YS, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P843 MASON G, 1999, IND INNOVATION, V61, P85 MATIAS P, 2000, SEM INN DIFF EC LISB MCMILLAN GS, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P1 MELO L, CONTRIBUTIONS WHITE MOWERY DC, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P99 MYTELKA L, 1999, INT J BIOTECHNOLOGY, V1, P30 OLIVEIRA T, 2002, DRUID PHD WINT 2002 ORSENIGO L, 1989, EMERGENCE BIOTECHNOL ORSENIGO L, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P485 OWENSMITH J, 2002, MANAGE SCI, V48, P24 PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 POWELL WW, 1998, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V17, P253 PREISSL B, 2 WP QUINTANILHA A, 1999, PROFILES SCI RES POR RAPPERT B, 1997, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V9, P115 RAPPERT B, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P873 SENKER J, 1999, SOE1CT961036 TSER SP SHARP M, 1999, ORG EC INNOVATION EU, P269 SHINN T, 2000, SOCIOL SOC, V32, P43 SHOHET S, 1996, R&D MANAGE, V26, P283 SMITH HL, 1997, R&D MANAGE, V27, P319 STEPHAN PE, 1996, J ECON LIT, V34, P1199 WILTS A, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P767 ZUCKER LG, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P290 NR 55 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 14 IS 4 BP 419 EP 441 PG 23 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 618EK UT ISI:000179405400003 ER PT J AU Gemser, G Jacobs, D TI Private regulation to appropriate value from design innovations: Implications for anti-trust policy SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID COMPETITION; IMITATION; NETWORKS; INDUSTRY AB Co-operative ventures among rivals are looked upon in general with suspicion by antitrust authorities. In this paper, we position ourselves in the school of thought that evaluates collusive behavior among rivals with the Schumpeterian concept of dynamic competition in mind rather than the concept of Neoclassical perfect competition. We argue that whenever firms have difficulty in appropriating sufficient returns from their innovations, certain forms of apparently collusive behavior-or, more precisely, 'private regulation'-may actually stimulate investment in innovation and thereby Schumpeterian competition. A study of firms' strategies to appropriate value from design innovations in the Dutch and Italian furniture industry illustrates our arguments. C1 Univ Groningen, Fac Management & Org, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. TSM Business Sch, Enschede, Netherlands. RP Gemser, G, Univ Groningen, Fac Management & Org, POB 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. CR 1995, ECONOMIST 1202, P75 *CLAC, 1998, WOOD FURN IND DISTR *COMM EUR COMM, 1991, IIIF513191EN COMM EU *DUTCH DES I, 1994, DES EUR PATT SUPPL D *OECD, 2000, NEW EC CHANG ROL INN, P27 AGLIETTA M, 1976, REGULATION CRISES CA BAUMOL WJ, 1992, ANTITRUST INNOVATION, P82 BERKOWITZ M, 1987, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V4, P274 BIANCHI P, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P487 BOURGEOIS LJ, 1988, MANAGE SCI, V34, P816 BRENNER R, 1990, PERSPECTIVES IND ORG, P235 CHRISTENSEN JF, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P727 COHEN WM, 2000, 7552 NAT BUR EC RES DICKSON P, 1995, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V12, P406 FOMBRUN CJ, 1990, ACAD MANAGE J, V33, P235 FOSS NJ, 1995, RESOURCE BASED EVOLU, P43 GEMSER G, 1996, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V8, P439 GEMSER G, 2001, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V18, P28 GEMSER G, 2001, ORGAN STUD, V22, P563 GRANOVETTER M, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V91, P481 HUBER GP, 1985, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V6, P171 JACOBS D, 1988, THESIS KATHOLIEKE U JACOBS D, 1994, CONCURRENTIE SAMENWE JEHORAM HC, 1992, EUROPEAN INTELLECTUA, V3, P75 JORDE TM, 1990, J ECON PERSPECT, V4, P75 JORDE TM, 1992, ANTITRUST INNOVATION, P47 JORDE TM, 1992, ANTITRUST INNOVATION, P5 KLEIN DB, 1997, REPUTATION STUDIES V, P97 KUMAR N, 1993, ACAD MANAGE J, V36, P1633 LEVIN RC, 1987, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V3, P783 LORENZ C, 1986, DESIGN DIMENSION PRO MACAULAY S, 1963, AM SOCIOL REV, V28, P55 MANSFIELD E, 1981, ECON J, V91, P907 MILGROM P, 1990, EC POLITICS, V2, P1 MURPHY WJ, 1991, R D COOPERATION MARK NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PAPADAKIS VM, 1998, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V19, P115 PODOLNY JM, 1993, AM J SOCIOL, V98, P829 ROERDINKHOLDER FA, 1995, EC WAARDE GOED IND O SAMUELSON SS, 1988, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V30, P79 SAXENIAN A, 1994, TECHNOL REV, V97, P42 SCHUMPETER JA, 1950, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM TEECE D, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P287 WALSH V, 1992, WINNING DESIGN TECHN ZANDER U, 1991, THESIS STOCKHOLM SCH NR 45 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 14 IS 4 BP 443 EP 456 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 618EK UT ISI:000179405400004 ER PT J AU Ramani, SV De Looze, MA TI Country-specific characteristics of patent applications in France, Germany and the UK in the biotechnology sectors SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; TECHNOLOGY; FRENCH AB Given that institutions are highly country-specific, the differences in the national systems of innovation in the different countries of Europe are likely to give rise to country-specific patterns in new technology investment. The objective of this paper is to identify such differences, in the biotechnology sectors, in France, Germany and the UK. The results, based on an analysis of patent applications, indicate that France is focused on the 'dominant' technology of genetic engineering and its public laboratories and collective patent applications play an important role. Germany is leading in the total number of patent applications but is focused on 'intermediate' and 'residual' technologies with a significant number of individual depositors. The UK is leading in the 'dominant' technology. Its public laboratories and firms are strongly involved in depositing patents with a marked strategy of international protection. C1 Univ Pierre Mendes France, INRA, Dept Econ & Social Sci, F-38070 Grenoble 9, France. RP Ramani, SV, Univ Pierre Mendes France, INRA, Dept Econ & Social Sci, BP 47, F-38070 Grenoble 9, France. CR *OBS SCI TECHN, 2000, SCI TECHNOLOGIE INDI, P214 *OECD, 2001, NAT INN SYST, P3 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1991, BIOT GLOB EC ALBERT MB, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P143 CALLON M, 1986, MAPPING DYNAMICS SCI CARPENTER MP, 1981, WORLD PATENT INFORMA, V3, P160 CASPER S, 2001, IND INNOVATION, V8, P5 CASPER S, 2001, INT J BIOTECHNOLOGY, V3, P134 CHESNAIS F, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST, P192 DELOOZE MA, 1999, NAT BIOTECHNOL, V17, P83 EDQUIST C, 2001, DRUID C AALB 12 15 J ESTADES J, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P483 FREEMAN C, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P5 GIESECKE S, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P205 GRILICHES Z, 1990, J ECON LIT, V27, P1702 JOLLY D, 1996, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V12, P830 JOLY PB, 1999, ECON APPL, V52, P183 KECK O, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST, P115 LEMARIE S, 2000, SCIENTOMETRICS, V47, P541 LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL INNOVATIONS YST LUNDVALL BA, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P407 MARTIN PA, 1998, NATL REPORT UK MUSTAR P, 1999, CHIFFRES CLES SCI TE NARIN F, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P143 NELSON R, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST ORSENIGO L, 1989, EMERGENCE BIOTECHNOL PAVITT K, 1988, HDB QUANTITATIVE STU, P509 PAVITT K, 1988, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V4, P35 SAVIOTTI PP, 1997, SYSTEMS INNOVATION T, P181 SCHANKEMAN M, 1991, REV OCDE, P108 SENKER J, 1998, BIOTECHNOLOGY COMPET SHARP M, 1989, STRATEGIES NEW TECHN, P119 VANRAAN AFJ, 1988, HDB QUANTITATIVE STU WALKER W, 1993, NATL INNOVATION SYST, P158 WOUTERS P, 1999, THESIS U AMSTERDAM NR 35 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 14 IS 4 BP 457 EP 480 PG 24 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 618EK UT ISI:000179405400005 ER PT J AU Desbordes, M TI Empirical analysis of the innovation phenomena in the sports equipment industry SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID TIME AB This article presents the results of a survey conducted in 108 firms in the French sports industry. The inquiry was based on three main themes: research & development, innovation and adoption of new materials. The study has shown a link between the product's life cycle and the structure of the industry. In fact the various levels of achievements reached by sports products have generated various structures among the sectors already mentioned. Slightly declining sectors, like skiing or yachting, are rather concentrated and tend to focus on process innovations. Fast expanding sectors, like snowboard, mountain bike and cycling, are rather atomized and innovate much more on new product and materials. C1 Univ Paris 11, Div STAPS, F-91405 Orsay, France. RP Desbordes, M, Univ Paris 11, Div STAPS, Batiment 335, F-91405 Orsay, France. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD DEC PY 2002 VL 14 IS 4 BP 481 EP 498 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 618EK UT ISI:000179405400006 ER PT J AU Coombs, R Metcalfe, JS TI Innovation in pharmaceuticals: Perspectives on the co-ordination, combination and creation of capabilities SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESOURCES; RENTS; FIRM C1 UMIST, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. Univ Manchester, ESRC, CRIC, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP Coombs, R, UMIST, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 14 IS 3 BP 261 EP 271 PG 11 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 577MY UT ISI:000177066000001 ER PT J AU Walsh, V Lodorfos, G TI Technological and organizational innovation in chemicals and related products SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; INDUSTRY AB This paper is an historical review of the interaction of organizational and technological change in the chemical, agro-food and pharmaceutical industries. These sectors have at various times had strong linkages to each other, through ownership and technology, such that they have been described collectively as 'the chemicals and related products industry'. Convergence such as this and subsequent divergence are among the organizational changes examined in this paper. Specifically, we focus on mergers, acquisitions, de-mergers and divestments as the mechanism by which such changes have taken place in the boundaries of the industry and its firms. Another important organizational change is also mentioned here, though it is analyzed in more detail elsewhere, namely the increasingly networked nature of the innovating firm and the increasingly distributed nature of the innovation process, also a significant aspect of the changing face of the chemical industry. We trace the developing strategies of chemical and related products firms in response to increasing costs and declining returns to effort in R&D, declining demand for its products, and globalization of production, markets and R&D itself. These strategies were initially to diversify into, or increase their reliance on, higher value-added areas such as drugs, agrochemicals, designer crops, speciality chemicals, advanced materials and catalysts, with an increased R&D focus on the life sciences. This trend interacted with the appearance of biotechnology and subsequently of new techniques of product discovery, design and screening based on IT and biotechnology, and of genomics, proteomics and bioinformatics. We argue that the chemical and related products industry has reinvented itself as, firstly a life sciences industry and a more traditional chemicals and materials industry, and then by a further division of the life sciences industry into agro-food and pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile parallel, demand-oriented strategies have included location of R&D in the business units of multidivisional firms, with a central R&D unit for longer term exploratory research; mergers and acquisitions that secure a stronger footing in countries that represent important markets to the firm concerned; acquisitions by agrochemical firms of seed and plant-breeding companies; and acquisitions by pharmaceutical companies of US prescription management companies. C1 UMIST, Manchester Sch Management, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. RP Walsh, V, UMIST, Manchester Sch Management, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 14 IS 3 BP 273 EP 298 PG 26 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 577MY UT ISI:000177066000002 ER PT J AU James, AD TI The strategic management of mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical industry: Developing a resource-based perspective SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID HORIZONTAL ACQUISITIONS; COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE; DECISION-MAKING; PERFORMANCE; REDEPLOYMENT; DETERMINANTS; INTEGRATION; FIRM; VIEW AB There is a growing recognition within resource-based theory that mergers and acquisitions (M&A) can play an important role as a means of transferring otherwise non-marketable resources and capabilities. However, this resource-based view has yet to consider in detail the management process issues involved. This paper looks at three cases from the pharmaceutical industry and seeks to begin the development of a resource-based perspective on the management of MA. C1 Univ Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP James, AD, Univ Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 14 IS 3 BP 299 EP 313 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 577MY UT ISI:000177066000003 ER PT J AU Allen, P Ramlogan, R Randles, S TI Complex systems and the merger process SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PERSPECTIVES; MARKET AB This paper considers how some of the generic principles that have emerged in the course of recent study and thinking around complex systems might be applied in a helpful way to the particular context of understanding the nature of the merger process. Theoretically, the paper stresses the connections between the processual and time-dependent nature of learning and knowledge acquisition and the systemic nature of socio-economic development and transformation. When carried into the substantive domain of mergers and their contribution to restructuring in the pharmaceuticals industry, we suggest that the complex systems approach provides a fruitful complement to alternative conceptual frameworks, albeit one which is still at an early stage of development in terms of this particular application. C1 Cranfield Univ, Complex Syst Management Ctr, Cranfield Sch Management, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England. Univ Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. UMIST, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. RP Allen, P, Cranfield Univ, Complex Syst Management Ctr, Cranfield Sch Management, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 14 IS 3 BP 315 EP 329 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 577MY UT ISI:000177066000004 ER PT J AU Randles, S TI Complex systems applied? The merger that made Glaxo SmithKline SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID MANAGEMENT; TECHNOLOGY AB With reference to the Glaxo SmithKline (GSK) case, and more widely, this paper asks 'what's going on?' when two separate corporations choose to combine their organizational and administrative facilities to pursue asserted shared corporate goals through merger. The paper explores whether complex systems thinking can help to capture and represent the interactions that occur across different classes of agent involved in the extended merger process. It is therefore explicitly concerned with the application of complex systems in socio-economic contexts as opposed to physical or natural systems. The paper argues that in order to understand the merger phenomenon, it is important to disentangle the revealed (as opposed to assumed) rationality of different classes of economic agent-operating across the corporate sector, across regulatory regimes, and from all sides of the market/exchange process. The analysis draws attention to the ways in which that rationality is both incentivized and (economically) expressed. Further, the paper uses the Instituted Economic Process (IEP) perspective to sketch an analytical framework representing the structures and structuring of interdependent markets in the pharmaceuticals sector. It argues that these interactions are responsible for instituting particular recurrent behaviours, appearing as event regularities in terms of outcomes. It further argues that these recurrent behaviours and interactions themselves change under pressure from various parts of the system and explores how these changes are revealed in this particular merger case. The analysis describes an unfolding situation which is inherently emergent, experimental, restless, and transformatory. C1 Univ Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. UMIST, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. RP Randles, S, Univ Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 14 IS 3 BP 331 EP 354 PG 24 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 577MY UT ISI:000177066000005 ER PT J AU Howells, J TI Mind the gap: Information and communication technologies, knowledge activities and innovation in the pharmaceutical industry SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; ELECTRONIC COMMERCE; EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS; MANAGEMENT; BIOTECHNOLOGY; NETWORKS; FIRM; ORGANIZATIONS; COLLABORATION; COOPERATION AB The paper explores the specific challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry regarding the exploitation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in the context of developing new frameworks supporting knowledge activity and the wider innovation process. The paper seeks to provide a framework to view these changes but also highlights gaps in our current conceptualization of the role of ICTs in facilitating and effecting change within the pharmaceutical industry. C1 Univ Manchester, CRIC, Manchester M13 9QH, Lancs, England. Univ Manchester, PREST, Manchester M13 9QH, Lancs, England. RP Howells, J, Univ Manchester, CRIC, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9QH, Lancs, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD SEP PY 2002 VL 14 IS 3 BP 355 EP 370 PG 16 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 577MY UT ISI:000177066000006 ER PT J AU Kennedy, KH Payne, GT Whitehead, CJ TI Matching industries between target and acquirer in high-tech mergers and acquisitions SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY; INCREASING RETURNS; PERFORMANCE; FIRMS; KNOWLEDGE; INNOVATION; GROWTH; CAPABILITIES; PRODUCTIVITY; TECHNOLOGY AB Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been regarded as a highly viable option for fostering innovation, gaining new products or services, and gaining access to new markets in high technology firms. This study analyzes several alter native variables that impact M&A choices by analyzing their relationship to the industry of both the acquirer and target. Results support two hypotheses implying that (1) M&A transactions with the same acquirer and target industry are more likely to be acquisitions that delivers a greater final share of the target organization to the acquirer, and (2) acquirers are more likely to invest greater dollar amounts in targets that have the same primary industry. C1 Ohio Univ, Coll Business, Dept Management Syst, Athens, OH 45701 USA. Univ Texas, Coll Business Adm, Dept Management, Arlington, TX 76019 USA. Texas Tech Univ, Jerry S Rawls Coll Business Adm, Area Management, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA. RP Kennedy, KH, Ohio Univ, Coll Business, Dept Management Syst, Athens, OH 45701 USA. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 14 IS 2 BP 149 EP 162 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 547NA UT ISI:000175337600001 ER PT J AU Tether, BS Hipp, C TI Knowledge intensive, technical and other services: Patterns of competitiveness and innovation compared SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Drawing on empirical evidence from a wide-scale survey, this paper examines patterns of innovation and sources of competitiveness amongst German service firms. The purpose is to investigate how these patterns differ across services, and in particular how knowledge intensive and technical service firms differ from services more generally. The analysis finds a high degree of customization in the output of service firms, especially amongst the knowledge intensive and technical service firms, the innovation activities of which are also relatively more oriented to product innovation. Knowledge intensive and technical service firms also invest more heavily in information communication technologies, whilst other services invest heavily in non-ICTs. Thus significant diversity is found between the groups of firms examined, but much diversity also exists within the groups. A serious challenge for research on services is to improve our understanding of this diversity. C1 Univ Manchester, Inst Innovat Res, ESRC Ctr Res Innovat & Competit, Manchester M13 9QH, Lancs, England. UMIST, Manchester M13 9QH, Lancs, England. Vodafone Pilotentwicklung GmbH, D-81549 Munich, Germany. Tech Univ Hamburg, Dept Technol & Innovat Management, D-21073 Hamburg, Germany. RP Tether, BS, Univ Manchester, Inst Innovat Res, ESRC Ctr Res Innovat & Competit, Manchester M13 9QH, Lancs, England. CR *EUR, 1999, SERV EUR DAT 1995 97 *OECD, 1996, PROP GUID COLL INT T BESSANT J, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P97 CHANNON D, 1996, STRATEGIC INNOVATION COE NM, 2000, SERV IND J, V20, P64 DAVID PA, 1995, STI REV, V16, P14 DEJONG MW, 1994, MANAGEMENT SERVICES DENHERTOG P, 2000, SERVICES KNOWLEDGE B EVANGELISTA R, 1999, KNOWLEDGE INVESTMENT GALLOUJ F, 1996, INNOVATION SERVICES GALLOUJ F, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P537 GALLOUJ F, 2000, SERVICES KNOWLEDGE B GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL HIPP C, 2000, INNOVATION SYSTEMS S HIPP C, 2000, INT J INNOVATION MAN, V4, P417 HOWELLS J, 1999, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V11, P591 LARSEN JN, 2001, SERV IND J, V21, P81 LEVITT T, 1972, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP LICHT G, 1995, RESULTS GERMAN SERVI MACHLUP F, 1962, PRODUCTION DISTRIBUT MILES I, 1994, KNOWLEDGE INTENSIVE MILES I, 2000, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V20, P95 MIOZZO M, 2001, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V67, P159 NONAKA I, 1995, KNOWLEDGE CREATING C, P8 PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PENNANTREA R, 1983, POCKET EC POLANYI M, 1967, TACIT DIMENSION ROTHWELL R, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P221 SILVESTRO R, 1992, INT J SERV IND MANAG, V3, P62 SIRILLI G, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P881 STRAMBACH S, 1994, TIJDSCHR ECON SOC GE, V85, P354 SUNDBO J, 2000, INNOVATION SYSTEMS S TETHER BS, 2001, 46 CRIC UMIST U MANC TETHER BS, 2001, RES POLICY, V30, P1115 TETHER BS, 2002, RES POLICY, V31, P947 NR 35 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 14 IS 2 BP 163 EP 182 PG 20 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 547NA UT ISI:000175337600002 ER PT J AU Salmenkaita, JP Salo, A TI Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; INNOVATION; PERSPECTIVE; INCENTIVES; FORESIGHT; INDUSTRY; PROGRAMS; US AB The paper examines rationales relevant to the evolving roles of government intervention and private venture capital industry in the commercialization of new technologies. Specifically, government interventions may aim to mitigate market and systemic failures, eliminate structural rigidities, or respond to anticipatory myopia. Ex ante, constructive, and ex post evaluations are discussed in relation to the possibility that agencies responsible for policy implementation may intervene even in situations in which the benefits of their interventions are not necessarily transparent. C1 Nokia Res Ctr, Helsinki 00045, Finland. Helsinki Univ Technol, Syst Anal Lab, Espoo 02015, Finland. RP Salmenkaita, JP, Nokia Res Ctr, POB 407, Helsinki 00045, Finland. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 14 IS 2 BP 183 EP 200 PG 18 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 547NA UT ISI:000175337600003 ER PT J AU Nauwelaers, C Wintjes, R TI Innovating SMEs and regions: The need for policy intelligence and interactive policies SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Based on the empirical findings achieved through comparative research involving 40 innovation policy instruments from 11 European regions, this paper proposes a shift in rationale and in the broad orientations of innovation policy to focus on addressing SMEs in their regional context. The main role for innovation policy, which aims to increase the capacity of a region and the capabilities of its SMEs to innovate, is to foster interactive learning within the firms and within the region. This calls for an interactive mode of policy intervention. The paper deals also with the question of how to build a coherent portfolio of policy instruments, taking into account both regional situations and specific SMEs needs in terms of innovation. The key message is that there is no 'one-size-fits-all' policy portfolio. Regional differences in innovation capabilities call for a tailored mix of policy instruments. One salient element of the conclusion is the need for more 'policy intelligence' in this complex field. C1 Univ Maastricht, MERIT, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. RP Nauwelaers, C, Univ Maastricht, MERIT, Postbus 616, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. CR ASHEIM B, 1999, 5 SMEPOL BARQUERO AV, 1999, 6 SMEPOL CHRISTENSEN PR, 1999, 2 SMEPOL CHRISTENSEN PR, 1999, COHERENCE INNOVATION COBBENHAGEN J, 1999, MANAGING INNOVATION COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 COWAN R, 1997, IND CORP CHANGE, V6, P595 COWAN R, 2000, PUBLICATION EUROPEAN DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC FELDMAN M, 1994, GEOGRAPHY INNOVATION GAROFOLI G, 1999, 3 SMEPOL GAROFOLI G, 1999, OVERVIEW REGIONAL IN GIL JA, 1999, RESULTS IMPACTS POLI GRABHER G, 1993, EMBEDDED FIRM SOCIOE ISAKSEN A, 1999, 5 SMEPOL ISAKSEN A, 1999, NATL REGIONAL CONTEX KAUFMANN A, 1999, 1 SMEPOL KAUFMANN A, 1999, INNOVATION PATTERNS LANDABASO M, 1997, ENTREPRENEURSHIP REG LUNDVALL BA, 1983, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA MORGAN K, 1997, REG STUD, V31, P491 MORGAN K, 1999, REGIONAL INNOVATION NAUWELAERS C, 1999, 4 SMEPOL NAUWELAERS C, 1999, NEW PARADIGM INNOVAT POLANYI M, 1996, TACIT DIMENSION ROTHWELL R, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P221 SMALLBONE D, 1999, 7 SMEPOL SMALLBONE D, 1999, SME POLICY REGIONAL SOETE L, 1993, PUBLICATION EUROPEAN STORPER M, 1997, REGIONAL WORLD TERRI NR 30 TC 3 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 14 IS 2 BP 201 EP 215 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 547NA UT ISI:000175337600004 ER PT J AU Calabrese, G TI Small-medium car suppliers and behavioural models in innovation SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID FIRMS AB This article reports the results of an empirical study on the innovation capabilities of a sample of 25 Italian small-medium car suppliers. The aim of the paper is to highlight the capabilities, the behavioural models and the factors deter mining innovation: technology transfer, the role of sub-suppliers, the relationships with external research institutes and the obstacles to innovation. Inter-firm differences in the innovation process will be examined using multinomial logit analysis. The homogeneity of the sample allows the testing of some operating strategies that may contribute to more rapid technological change in mature industries such as: diversity, consolidation and co-operation. C1 CNR, CERIS, I-10121 Turin, Italy. RP Calabrese, G, CNR, CERIS, Via Avogadro 8, I-10121 Turin, Italy. CR ACS Z, 1991, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG BONACCORSI A, 1997, 6 IPSERA C NAPL 24 2 COHEN W, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE COHEN WM, 1992, SMALL BUS ECON, V4, P1 COHEN WM, 1996, EC J, V106 FERGUSON CH, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V66, P55 GILDER G, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V66, P49 HOLMLUND M, 1996, INT SMALL BUS J, V15, P26 KLEINKNECHT A, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P579 LAMMING R, 1993, BEYOND PARTNERSHIP NORRIS WC, 1983, BUSINESS WEEK 0411, P21 PAVITT K, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P33 QUAYLE M, 1998, EUROPEAN J PURCHASIN, V4, P199 ROGERS TJ, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P24 ROTHWELL R, 1994, HDB IND INNOVATION SANTARELLI E, 1990, SMALL BUSINESS EC, V2, P223 SCHUMPETER JA, 1942, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SHERER FM, 1990, IND MARKET STRUCTURE STERLACCHINI A, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P819 TETHER BS, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P19 TETHER BS, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P725 TOEDTLING F, 1990, QUADERNI SARDI EC, V20, P155 VOSSEN R, 1996, R D DECISION FIRM SI NR 23 TC 2 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 14 IS 2 BP 217 EP 225 PG 9 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 547NA UT ISI:000175337600005 ER PT J AU Da Silveira, GJC TI Improvement trajectories in operations and technology management: Concept, process and content issues SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID STRATEGY; MODEL; CAPABILITIES; ORGANIZATION; PERFORMANCE; ACQUISITION; INNOVATION; INVESTMENT; PRODUCT; DESIGN AB This study introduces a framework for the analysis of improvement trajectories in operations and technology management. In the first part, the concept of improvement trajectories in operations is defined, grounding on the evolutionary economic issues of path dependence and dynamic capabilities. In the second part, seven dimensions of the process and content of improvement trajectories are reviewed and integrated into a research framework, and research propositions are built to ground further research on the subject. In the third part, the roles of implementation history, innovation capabilities, and strategic orientation as determinants of improvement trajectory success are discussed. C1 Univ Calgary, Fac Management, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada. RP Da Silveira, GJC, Univ Calgary, Fac Management, 2500 Univ Dr NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada. CR AFUAH A, 1998, INNOVATION MANAGEMEN, P91 AGGARWAL S, 1995, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V23, P323 AHMED P, 1999, BEST PRACTICE PROCES, P374 AMIT R, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P33 ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 ARTHUR WB, 1988, EC EVOLVING COMPLEX, P9 ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 ATHEY S, 1995, RAND J ECON, V26, P557 BASSANINI A, 1997, IR97086 IIASA BATES K, 1995, ACAD MANAGE J, P235 BESANKO D, 1996, EC STRATEGY, P595 BESSANT J, 1996, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V8, P59 BESSANT J, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P7 CAINARCA GC, 1990, SMALL BUSINESS EC, V2, P129 DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DAVID PA, 1988, INFORMATION EC POLIC, V3, P165 DAVID PA, 1994, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V5, P205 DAVID PA, 2000, EVOLUTION PATH DEPEN, CH2 DENTON D, 1995, BUS HORIZONS, V38, P16 DIXON JR, 1994, CALIF MANAGE REV, V36, P93 DOSI G, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY CONCEPT, P157 ETTLIE JE, 2000, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC, P99 EUSKE KJ, 1996, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V38, P69 EVANS S, 2000, INT J OPER PROD MAN, V20, P979 FIELD JM, 2000, J QUALITY MANAGEMENT, V5, P103 FILIPPINI R, 1996, INTEGRATED MANUFACTU, V7, P67 FILIPPINI R, 1998, INT J OPER PROD MAN, V18, P195 FISCHER WA, 1978, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V21, P10 FOSS N, 1999, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V29, P9 FRANSMAN M, 1998, TECHNOLOGY ORG COMPE, P147 FREEMAN C, 1997, EC IND INNOVATION, P197 FRICK J, 1998, INT MANUFACTURING ST, P345 GARVIN DA, 1993, CALIF MANAGE REV, V35, P85 GILMORE JH, 1997, HARVARD BUS REV, V75, P91 GOODSTEIN E, 1995, J ECON ISSUES, V29, P1029 GRANT RM, 1991, CALIF MANAGE REV, V33, P114 HAMMER M, 1993, REENGINEERING CORPOR HAYES R, 1984, RESTORING OUR COMPET HAYES RH, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P111 HAYES RH, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V66, P77 HAYES RH, 1996, PRODUCTION OPERATION, V5, P25 HILL T, 1993, MANUFACTURING STRATE, P33 INKPEN AC, 1996, CALIF MANAGE REV, V39, P123 KAPLAN RS, 1986, HARVARD BUS REV, V64, P87 KATHURIA R, J OPERATIONS MANAGEM, V18, P627 KIRKWOOD R, 1989, INT J OPER PROD MAN, V9, P5 LEIBOWITZ SJ, 1995, J LAW ECON ORGAN, V11, P205 LEIPONEN A, 1997, IR97006 IIASA LEONARDBARTON D, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V13, P111 LIEBERMAN MB, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V9, P41 LIND MR, 1994, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V41, P375 LINDBERG P, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P86 LINDBERG P, 1998, INT MANUFACTURING ST, P323 LONGENECKER C, 1997, BUS HORIZONS, V40, P7 MACDUFFIE JP, 1997, CALIF MANAGE REV, V39, P118 MAGNUSSON L, 2000, REV POLITICAL EC, V12, P191 MARITAN CA, 2001, ACAD MANAGE J, V44, P513 MEREDITH JR, 1992, LONG RANGE PLANN, V25, P63 PARK CS, 1995, J MANUF SYST, V14, P439 PENROSE E, 1995, THEORY GROWTH FIRM, P226 RIIS JO, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P61 ROTH AV, 1991, DECISION SCI, V22, P308 SCHEWE G, 1996, J ENG TECHNOL MANAGE, V13, P55 SCHROEDER DM, 1995, J MANAGE STUD, V32, P163 SIM KL, 2001, INT J OPER PROD MAN, V21, P373 SMALL MH, 1997, J OPERATIONS MANAGEM, V15, P349 STALK G, 1991, COMPETING TIME TIME STUART I, 1998, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V39, P81 TEECE D, 1998, TECHNOLOGY ORG COMPE, P193 UPTON D, 1996, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V14, P215 UPTON D, 1997, 97094 HARV BUS SCH VANDEPOEL I, 2000, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V12, P383 VOSS C, 1998, J OPER MANAG, V16, P147 WARD PT, 1994, DECISION SCI, V25, P337 WARD PT, 1998, DECISION SCI, V29, P1035 WHEELWRIGHT SC, 1992, BUS HORIZONS, V35, P29 WHITE GP, 1996, INT J OPER PROD MAN, V16, P42 ZAHRA SA, 1995, ACAD MANAGEMENT EXEC, V9, P17 ZAMMUTO RF, 1992, ACAD MANAGE REV, V17, P701 NR 79 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 14 IS 2 BP 227 EP 240 PG 14 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 547NA UT ISI:000175337600006 ER PT J AU Tann, J Platts, AE Stein, J TI The roles of independent research and technology organizations in the United Kingdom's technology transfer mechanism to SMEs SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Independent Research and Technology Organizations (RTOs) provide an increasing proportion of the UK's technology services requirements. RTOs, often for mer state research establishments spun out into the private sector, provide technology consulting and networking services to specific sectors or for generic technologies; some are membership-based organizations while others work for contract clients. In this paper we explore the roles and services provided by RTOs, together with the measures being taken to assist small firms that, for many RTOs, for m a new and challenging market. The diversity of services and approaches to SMEs are related, in part, to the different origins of RTOs. The research indicates three forms of technology services market failure that suggest a need for ongoing external support for the market's mechanism. C1 Univ Birmingham, Sch Business, Innovat Management Res Unit, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. RP Tann, J, Univ Birmingham, Sch Business, Innovat Management Res Unit, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. CR 1996, AIRTO REV 1997, AIRTO REV 1998, AIRTO REV *AIRTO, 1995, 951 AIRTO ATUNHEMEGIMA K, 1993, R&D MANAGE, V23, P327 BETTIS RA, 1992, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT E, V6, P7 COHEN WM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P128 COLLINS R, 1997, EUROPEAN MANAGEMENT, V15, P498 COOMBS R, 1998, 5 CRIC COOMBS R, 1998, 6 CRIC U MANCH DODGSON M, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL COLLAB ELLRAM LM, 1996, INT J PURCHASING MAT, V32, P20 HANSCHILDT J, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P105 LORANGE P, 1991, STRATEGIC ALLIANCE F MANTEL SJ, 1987, INNOVATION ADAPTATIO, P123 NONAKA I, 1995, KNOWLEDGE CREATING C, P224 PLATTS A, 1997, P I SMALL BUS AFF C, V1, P10 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION, P161 ROTHWELL R, 1993, 931 AIRTO SINCLAIR MA, 1995, INT J IND ERGONOM, V16, P4 SMELTZER LR, 1997, INT J PURCHASING MAT, V33, P40 STUART FI, 1997, BRIT J MANAGE, V8, P223 TANN J, 1998, J SMALL BUSINESS ENT, V5, P7 TIDD J, 1997, R&D MANAGE, V27, P359 TIDD J, 2001, MANAGING INNOVATION, P224 NR 25 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD JUN PY 2002 VL 14 IS 2 BP 241 EP 249 PG 9 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 547NA UT ISI:000175337600007 ER PT J AU Araujo, L Harrison, D TI Path dependence, agency and technological evolution SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID HISTORICAL SOCIOLOGY; ECONOMICS; TIME AB The notion of path dependence is regularly deployed to account for the way past commitments have an important bearing on current choices. We make a distinction between the notions of past and path dependence and focus on path dependence as two types of event sequences: self-reinforcing and reactive. We then address the issue of how the notion of path dependence can be reconciled with a temporal-relational perspectize on agency. These notions are tested and refined using a longitudinal case study of ICI's move away from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and the decision to build three plants to produce one CFC alternative (HFC-134a) for the global refrigeration market. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of path dependence for research on technological and firm evolution. C1 Univ Lancaster, Sch Management, Dept Mkt, Lancaster LA1 4YX, England. RP Araujo, L, Univ Lancaster, Sch Management, Dept Mkt, Lancaster LA1 4YX, England. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2002 VL 14 IS 1 BP 5 EP 19 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 535MB UT ISI:000174647300001 ER PT J AU Rycroft, RW Kash, DE TI Path dependence in the innovation of complex technologies SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID NETWORKS; INTERNATIONALIZATION; SYSTEMS AB This article investigates three factors that affect the path dependence of complex technologies and the organizational networks that carry out their innovation: culture and institutions, organizational learning, and technology design. Evidence from the rapidly growing body of literature on path dependence and from six case studies of complex technologies (i.e. turbine blades, cardio-imaging technology, audio compact discs (CD's), radiation therapy technology, micro floppy disks, and microprocessors) is used to investigate the impact of culture, organizational learning, and technology design on path dependence. Three innovation patterns associated with co-evolution of technologies and organizational networks provide the framework used to structure the investigation. C1 George Washington Univ, Ctr Int Sci & Technol Policy, Washington, DC 20052 USA. George Mason Univ, Inst Publ Policy, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA. RP Rycroft, RW, George Washington Univ, Ctr Int Sci & Technol Policy, Washington, DC 20052 USA. CR *EUR COMM, 1999, GLOB LEARN EC IMPL, P106 ARTHUR WB, 1994, INCREASING RETURNS P, P1 BALMANN A, 1996, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V29, P160 BARTEZZAGHI E, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V14, P122 CHOI CJ, 1999, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V29, P6 COOMBS R, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P243 DAVID PA, 1985, EC HIST, P332 DAVID PA, 1988, EC HIST MODERN EC, P41 DAVID PA, 1988, INFORMATION EC POLIC, V3, P171 DAVID PA, 1990, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V1, P4 DAVIES JC, 1993, KEEPING PACE SCI ENG, P251 DICKEN P, 1997, INT SOC SCI J, V151, P88 FREEMAN C, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P5 GALLON MR, 1995, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V38, P20 HAGEDOORN J, 1995, RES POLICY, V24, P207 HALL SS, 2000, TECHNOL REV, V103, P87 HANSEN N, 1992, PAPERS REGIONAL SCI, V71, P101 HILL CWL, 1997, ACAD MANAGEMENT EXEC, V11, P7 HOBDAY M, 1998, RES POLICY, V26, P695 JONES GK, 2000, MANAGE INT REV, V40, P11 KAOUNIDES LC, 1999, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, V29, P53 KASH DE, 1998, SCI PUBL POLICY, V25, P71 KASH DE, 2000, COMMUNICATION SEP KASH DE, 2000, INNOVATION AUDIO COM KASH DE, 2000, INNOVATION CARDIOIMA KENWORTHY L, 1995, SEARCH NATL EC SUCCE, P192 KOZULWRIGHT R, 1998, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V14, P74 LANGLOIS RN, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P297 LEI DT, 1997, INT J TECHNOLOGY MEA, V14, P211 LIEBERMAN S, 1997, 971 G MAS U I PUBL P LUNDGREN A, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA, P91 LUNDVALL B, 1995, STANDARDS INNOVATION, P7 LUNDVALL BA, 1998, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V10, P407 LYNN GS, 1996, CALIF MANAGE REV, V38, P8 MASKELL P, 1999, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V23, P168 MCKEE D, 1992, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V9, P232 MOORE GE, 1996, ENGINES INNOVATION U, P168 MORRIS CR, 1993, HARVARD BUS REV, V71, P88 MOWERY DC, 1998, RES POLICY, V27, P209 NARULA R, 1998, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V9, P373 NASH J, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P16 NASH J, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P36 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY, P107 NELSON RR, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY EC CHAO, P21 NIOSI J, 1999, RES POLICY, V28, P107 NONAKA I, 1994, ORGAN SCI, V5, P14 OSTRY S, 1998, J INT BUS STUD, V29, P85 PETIT P, 1999, INT SOC SCI J, V160, P176 PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG, P210 RICHTER F, 1994, HUMAN SYSTEMS MANAGE, V13, P19 ROSENBERG N, 1994, EXPLORING BLACK BOX, P9 RYCROFT RW, 1999, COMPLEXITY CHALLENGE, P77 RYCROFT RW, 1999, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V42, P13 RYCROFT RW, 2000, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V43, P20 SAXENIAN A, 1994, REGIONAL ADV CULTURE SCHALLER RR, 1999, 992 G MAS U I PUBL P SCOTT AJ, 1996, FUTURES, V28, P397 SHARP M, 1997, TECHNOLOGY CULTURE C, P90 SINGH K, 1997, ACAD MANAGE J, V40, P334 SOBOL MG, 1994, INT J HUMAN FACTORS, V4, P168 STIGLITZ JE, 1999, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P52 STORPER M, 1997, WORLDS PRODUCTION AC, P167 TASSEY G, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P357 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 TEECE DJ, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V18, P522 VEGAREDONDO F, 1994, J EVOLUTIONARY EC, V1, P61 WADE J, 1995, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V16, P118 WHEATLEY MJ, 1996, STRATEGY LEADERSHIP, V24, P18 WHITLEY R, 1998, REV INT POLIT ECON, V5, P445 NR 69 TC 5 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2002 VL 14 IS 1 BP 21 EP 35 PG 15 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 535MB UT ISI:000174647300002 ER PT J AU Hansen, OE Sondergard, B Meredith, S TI Environmental innovations in small and medium sized enterprises SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article AB Supporting and accelerating the adoption and diffusion of environmental innovations amongst small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) is a major challenge to environmental policy makers. Research suggests that whilst SMEs possess high flexibility, their innovative capacity may be limited to incremental changes within their existing technology system and network. Twenty case studies examining the innovation adoption process in SMEs in four sectors and in five countries within the ENVIS project' (commissioned by the EU) revealed great variety in factors driving this process. Findings indicate that this variation can be attributed to the character of the environmental innovation, the speck business opportunity, the regulatory setting and pressure experienced by the sector. Based on these findings an analytical framework is suggested, whereby the environmental innovative capability of SMEs is conceived as the result of an interplay between the competencies, the network relations and the strategic orientation of the company (the 'dynamic triangle'). This indicates that policy to support SME's adoption of environmental innovations has to take an integrated form, i.e. addressing and developing competence, networks and strategic orientation of SMEs simultaneously whilst remaining systemic and context sensitive. C1 Roskilde Univ Ctr, Dept Environm Technol & Social Studies, Roskilde, Denmark. Univ Brighton, Ctr Res Innovat Management, Brighton BN2 4AT, E Sussex, England. RP Hansen, OE, Roskilde Univ Ctr, Dept Environm Technol & Social Studies, Roskilde, Denmark. CR *ENVIS, 1997, 5 ENVIS CONNELL L, 1999, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V17, P480 COOKE P, 1998, ASS EC FIRMS REGIONS CORIAT B, 1998, I EC CHANGE DODGSON M, 1996, TECHNOLOGICAL COLLAB, P55 DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE ENV EDQUIST C, 1997, SYSTEMS INNOVATION T FOREST JA, 1991, TECHNOLOGY ANAL STRA, V3 FRAMBACH RT, 1993, DIFFUSIE VA INNOVATI GARDINER P, 1994, RES DEV MANAGEMENT, V24 GEORGE AL, 1985, ADV INFORMATION PROC, V2, P21 HANSEN OE, 1993, NATL INT TELEPOLITIK HASS JL, 1996, BUSINESS STRATEGY EN, V5, P59 HENDRY C, 1995, STRATEGY PEOPLE, P21 HILLARY R, 1995, SMALL FIRMS ENV GROU HODGSON GM, 1988, EC I HOFFMAN K, 1998, TECHNOVATION, V18, P39 JACOBS D, 1990, POLICY RELEVANCE DIF LEONARDBARTON D, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V13, P111 LEONARDBARTON D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MAC A, 1998, THESIS ROSKILDE U DE MARCEAU J, 1992, REWORKING WORLD ORG MARCH JG, 1991, HUMAN COMPUTER INTER, V6, P95 MEREDITH S, 1994, STB94022 TNO NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON RR, 1994, FUNDAMENTAL ISSSUES, P247 POUTSMA E, 1993, PROCESS INNOVATION A ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSIONS INNOVATIO ROTHWELL R, 1982, INNOVATION SMALL MED ROTHWELL R, 1992, R&D MANAGE, V22, P221 ROTHWELL R, 1994, HDB IND INNOVATION, P310 SCHOT J, 1990, INT C FIRM STRAT TEC TIDD J, 1997, MANAGING INNOVATION WELFORD RJ, 1994, CASES ENV MANAGEMENT WOLTERS T, 1997, 6 ENVIS YIN RK, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG NR 38 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2002 VL 14 IS 1 BP 37 EP 56 PG 20 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 535MB UT ISI:000174647300003 ER PT J AU Steenhuis, HJ De Bruijn, EJ TI Technology transfer and learning SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID PERSISTENCE; COUNTRIES; STRATEGY AB Despite the fact that international technology transfer has been widely studied its management still encounters many difficulties. To fully understand the issues that are relevant to the process of transferring production technology, it is necessary to determine the important factors that influence this process. Learning curves are often used as a means of determining the time required to become familiar with a transferred technology. The cases discussed in this paper have all employed learning curves, which were established at the outset of the transfer process and which turned out to be incorrect. As a consequence the envisaged efficiencies were not obtained. This phenomenon is party due to the fact that when technology is transferred to a relatively inexperienced 'destination company; the curve is established based on the circumstances of the 'source company'. The case study findings lead to the conclusion that to establish a realistic curve a more comprehensive method is required than simply basing anticipated performance on that achieved at the source company. C1 N Carolina State Univ, Dept Psychol, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. Univ Twente, Fac Technol & Management, Technol & Dev Grp, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. RP Steenhuis, HJ, N Carolina State Univ, Dept Psychol, Box 7801, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. CR *US INT TRAD COMM, 1993, GLOB COMP US ADV TEC, P4 ARGOTE L, 1990, MANAGE SCI, V36, P140 ARGOTE L, 1996, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V11, P759 CLIFFORD ML, 1997, BUSINESS WEEK 0526, P40 CONWAY RW, 1982, LEARNING CURVES THEO, P7 CUSUMANO MA, 1994, RES POLICY, V23, P195 EISENHARDT KM, 1989, ACAD MANAGE REV, V14, P532 GODKIN L, 1998, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V3, P587 GRANT EB, 1997, 14 INT C PROD RES IC GRANT EB, 1997, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE JACKSON D, 1998, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE LEAVY B, 1996, PRODUCTION INVENTORY, P50 LEWIS P, 1998, FLIGHT INT 0729, P4 MADU CN, 1989, LONG RANGE PLANN, V22, P115 MARCOTTE C, 2000, J TECHNOLOGY TRANSFE, V25, P43 MILES MB, 1984, QUALITATIVE DATA ANA MOXON J, 1998, FLIGHT INT 0708, P6 NANDA R, 1982, LEARNING CURVES THEO PLENERT G, 1997, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V13, P421 REDDY NM, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P285 SMITH J, 1989, LEARNING CURVE COST STEENHUIS HJ, 2000, THESIS U TWENTE ENSC STEENHUIS HJ, 2000, TRANSCENDING BOUNDAR SWANBORN PG, 1996, CASE STUDYS WAT WANN TODD D, 1986, WORLD AIRCRAFT IND TSANG EWK, 1994, LONG RANGE PLANN, V27, P98 VANDEVEN AH, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V13, P169 WRIGHT TP, 1936, J AERONAUT SCI, V3, P122 NR 28 TC 1 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2002 VL 14 IS 1 BP 57 EP 66 PG 10 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 535MB UT ISI:000174647300004 ER PT J AU Hagedoorn, J Duysters, G TI The effect of mergers and acquisitions on the technological performance of companies in a high-tech environment SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE-CONTROL; FIRMS; PATENTS; MARKET; PERSPECTIVE; INTEGRATION; INNOVATION; STRATEGIES AB A large part of the literature from industrial organization and management expects that, compared with unrelated M&As, related M&As show superior economic performance because of synergetic effects that follow from economies of scale and scope. The current contribution takes the debate on the effect of different M&As somewhat further by studying the effect of M&As on the technological performance of companies. In this study the technological performance of M&As is related to a high-tech sector, i.e. the international computer industry. The main result of this research is that the so-called strategic and organizational fit between companies involved in M&As seem to play an important role in improving the technological performance of companies. C1 Univ Maastricht, Fac Econ & Business Adm, MERIT, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. Eindhoven Univ Technol, Fac Technol Management, ECIS, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands. RP Hagedoorn, J, Univ Maastricht, Fac Econ & Business Adm, MERIT, POB 616, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. 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Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2002 VL 14 IS 1 BP 67 EP 85 PG 19 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 535MB UT ISI:000174647300005 ER PT J AU Holmen, NG TI Regional industrial renewal: The growth of 'antenna technology' in west Sweden SO TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; NETWORKS; SCIENCE AB The article analyses how a technical knowledge field ('antenna technology') is developed and exploited in a region (West Sweden). To identify regional actors, the paper outlines a way of delineating a technical knowledge field and its changes over time. Drawing on this, an historical account is given of the international and the regional development, focusing on the changing and expanding nature of industries and markets (from military to civilian applications) and technologies. The paper emphasizes the long regional history, providing experience, which together with a number of diversifications, has given regional actors a platform from which to exploit the growing economic utility of the technical knowledge. It is also shown why some applications have not been exploited in the region. C1 Chalmers Univ Technol, Sch Technol Management, Dept Ind Dynam, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. RP Holmen, NG, Chalmers Univ Technol, Sch Technol Management, Dept Ind Dynam, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. CR ASHEIM B, 1995, REGIONALE INNOVASJON AYDALOT P, 1986, MILIEUX INNOVATEURS BOOT H, 1976, IEEE T ELECTRON DEV, V23, P105 BOSCHMA RA, 1999, GEOGR ANN B, V81, P73 BRACZYK HJ, 1998, REGIONAL INNOVATION BROOKNER E, 1997, MICROWAVE J BRUNNANDER S, 1994, LACKAREBACK ERICSSAN CAMAGNI R, 1991, INNOVATION NETWORKS, P121 CARLSSON B, 1991, J EVOLUTIONARY EC, V1, P93 CARLSSON B, 1997, TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM COLLINS HM, 1974, SCI STUD, V4, P165 COWAN R, 2000, IND CORP CHANGE, V9, P211 DALUM B, 1999, EC CHALLENGE EUROPE, P97 DAVID PA, 1990, CEPR PUBLICATION, V207 DAVID PA, 1994, INFORMATION EC POLIC, V6, P217 EDQUIST C, 1997, SYSTEMS INNOVATION T ERICKSON RA, 1994, GROWTH CHANGE, V25, P353 FLORIDA R, 1995, FUTURES, V27, P527 FREEMAN C, 1987, TECHNOLOGY POLICY EC GLASMEIER A, 1988, REG STUD, V22, P287 GLASMEIER A, 1991, RES POLICY, V20, P469 GODDARD J, 1998, SWEDISH GEOGRAPHICAL, V74, P81 GODDARD JB, 1999, U CREATION WEALTH, P36 HARRISON B, 1992, REG STUD, V26, P469 HOLMEN M, 1997, REGIONAL SPECIALIZAT, V3 HOLMEN M, 2000, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V9, P331 HOWE H, 1984, IEEE T MICROWAVE THE, V32 HUGHES TP, 1983, NETWORKS POWER ELECT KALDOR N, 1970, SCOTTISH J POLITICAL, V17, P337 KRUGMAN P, 1991, GEOGRAPHY TRADE LUNDGREN A, 1995, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATL SYSTEMS INNOVAT MALECKI EJ, 1983, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V8, P89 MALECKI EJ, 1997, IGU COMM ORG IND SPA MALMBERG A, 1997, EUROPEAN PLANNING ST, V5, P25 MARSHALL A, 1920, PRINCIPLES EC MCKELVEY MD, 1996, EVOLUTIONARY INNOVAT MEYER M, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P409 MYRDAL G, 1957, EC THEORY UNDERDEVEL NARIN F, 1985, SCIENTOMETRICS, V7, P369 NELSON R, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON RR, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P193 OLINER AA, 1984, IEEE T MICROW THEORY, V32, P1020 PIORE M, 1984, 2 IND DIVIDED POSSIB POLANYI M, 1958, PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE P PORTER M, 1991, COMPETITIVE ADV NATI ROSENBERG N, 1963, J ECON HIST, V23, P414 ROSENBERG N, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P3 ROSENBERG N, 1992, RES POLICY, V21, P381 SAHAL D, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P61 SHANKAR B, 1997, MICROWAVE J JUN SKOLNIK ML, 1962, INTRO RADAR SYSTEMS STIGLER GJ, 1951, J POLITICAL EC, V54, P185 STORPER M, 1992, PATHWAYS IND REGIONA STORPER M, 1995, EUROPEAN URBAN REGIO, V2, P191 TEECE DJ, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P285 VINCENTI WG, 1990, WHAT ENG KNOW THEY K VONHIPPEL E, 1994, MANAGE SCI, V40, P429 VONHIPPEL E, 1995, SOURCES INNOVATION NR 59 TC 0 PU CARFAX PUBLISHING PI BASINGSTOKE PA RANKINE RD, BASINGSTOKE RG24 8PR, HANTS, ENGLAND SN 0953-7325 J9 TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG MANAGE JI Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. PD MAR PY 2002 VL 14 IS 1 BP 87 EP 106 PG 20 SC Management; Multidisciplinary Sciences GA 535MB UT ISI:000174647300006 ER PT J AU MARCHETTI, C TI ANTHROPOLOGICAL INVARIANTS IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOR SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Personal travel appears to be much more under the control of basic instincts than of economic drives. This may be the reason for the systematic mismatch between the results of cost benefit analysis and the actual behavior of travelers. In this paper we put together a list of the basic instincts that drive and contain travelers' behavior, showing how they mesh with technological progress and economic constraints. C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR *FED POL SCH LAUS, 1991, SET5A167OFENITEP *US DEP COMM, 1975, HIST STAT US COL TIM ALBER R, 1972, SPACIAL ORG GEOGRAPH DOXIADIS CA, 1974, ATENE GRUBLER A, 1989, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC ZAHAVI Y, 1979, UMOT PROJECT ZAHAVI Y, 1981, DOTRSPADPB107 US DEP ZIPF GK, 1972, HUMAN BEHAVIOR PRINC NR 8 TC 11 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 75 EP 88 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400006 ER PT J AU MEYER, P TI BI-LOGISTIC GROWTH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MODEL AB The S-shaped logistic growth model has been extensively studied and applied to a wide range of biological and socio-technical systems. A model, the Bi-logistic, is presented for the analysis of systems that experience two phases of logistic growth, either overlapping or sequentially. A nonlinear least-squares algorithm is described that provides Bi-logistic parameter estimates from time-series growth data. Model sensitivity and robustness are discussed in relation to error structure in the data. A taxonomy and some examples of systems that exhibit Bi-logistic growth are presented. The Bi-logistic model is shown to be superior to the simple logistic model for representing many growth processes. RP MEYER, P, ROCKEFELLER UNIV,PROGRAM HUMAN ENVIRONM,1230 YORK AVE,BOX 234,NEW YORK,NY 10021. CR 1992, STOCKHOLM INT PEACE *US BUR CENS, STAT ABSTR US *US BUR CENS, 1975, HIST STAT US AUSUBEL J, UNPUB TECHNOLOGICAL FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC KINGSLAND S, 1982, Q REV BIOL, V57, P29 KROGMAN WM, 1972, CHILD GROWTH MARCHETTI C, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI MONTROLL EW, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P4633 NAKICENOVIC N, 1988, CITIES THEIR VIRAL S OLIVER RM, 1988, J FORECASTING, V7, P15 POSCH M, 1987, METHODS ESTIMATING S PRESS WH, 1992, NUMERICAL RECIPES C REED HS, 1919, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V5, P135 STONE R, 1980, B APPL STAT, V7, P59 WOOLF HB, 1979, WEBSTERS NEW COLLEGI YOUNG P, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V44, P375 NR 18 TC 20 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 89 EP 102 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400007 ER PT J AU SHARIF, N TI TECHNOLOGY CHANGE MANAGEMENT - IMPERATIVES FOR DEVELOPING-ECONOMIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper begins with the well-accepted premise that technological progress provides the foundation for economic prosperity. And, because most developing countries are lagging behind due to technological underdevelopment, a judicious management of the technological advancement process deserves serious attention. Keeping these in mind and also taking stock of the current global perspective for developing economies, what problems and issues will have to be dealt with, and what bottlenecks will have to be removed are presented first. The middle portion of the paper then deals with a brief dissection of the vital dimensions of the required technological change management system for practitioners and policymakers in these countries. The third and the last part presents some observations/comments regarding the attitudinal, organizational, and institutional changes that could help in achieving the aspired technology-led economic miracle. RP SHARIF, N, ASIAN INST TECHNOL,SCH MANAGEMENT,GPP BOX 2754,BANGKOK 10501,THAILAND. NR 0 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 103 EP 114 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400008 ER PT J AU BERRY, BJL TI AS 2000 APPROACHES - MILLENNIAL CONJUNCTURES AND APOCALYPTIC PROPHECY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The conjunctures in question are the approach of a new millennium and the likely sag of the economy into a long-wave (Kondratiev) through as that millennium arrives. Will there be yet another wave of apocalyptic expectation? An answer is sought in the nature and extent of American prophecy belief and in historic associations between millennial surges and long-wave troughs. C1 UNIV TEXAS,BRUTON CTR DEV STUDIES,DALLAS,TX 75230. CR 1990, END TIMES NEWS DIGES, P7 BARKUN M, 1984, COMMUNAL SOC, V4, P35 BERRY BJL, 1992, AM UTOPIAN EXPT COMM BERRY BJL, 1992, AM UTOPIAN EXPT COMM, P744 BESTOR A, 1950, BACKWOODS UTOPIAS SE BOYER P, 1992, WHEN TIME SHALL BE N BOYER P, 1992, WHEN TIME SHALL BE N, P234 DAVIDSON JW, 1977, LOGIC MILLENNIAL THO DOAN RA, 1987, MILLER HERESY MILLEN EGBERT DD, 1952, SOCIALISM AM LIFE, P99 FIRTH KR, 1979, APOCALYPTIC TRADITIO FOGARTY RS, 1990, ALL THINGS NEW AM CO FOSTER L, 1980, RELIGION SEXUALITY 3, P245 FRANK AG, 1988, 2ND INT K POL C MONT FREEDMAN DN, 1969, J THEOLOGY CHURCH, V6 GRAHAM B, 1965, WORLD AFLAME HARTMANN GW, 1952, SOCIALISM AM LIFE, P557 KANTER RM, 1972, COMMITMENT COMMUNITY KAUFF RM, 1971, MATHERS 3 GENERATION MANUEL FE, 1966, UTOPIAS UTOPIAN THOU MARX K, 1978, MARX ENGELS READER, P498 MCCLOSKEY H, 1984, AM ETHOS PUBLIC ATTI NORMAN C, 1980, PURSUIT MILLENNIUM R TOCQUEVILLE AD, 1831, DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA TUVESON EL, 1984, COMMUNIST MANIFESTO, P323 WARD D, 1983, PEACE PROSPERITY COM, P35 WHITWORTH JM, 1975, GODS BLUEPRINTS SOCI, P225 NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 115 EP 123 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400009 ER PT J AU [Anon] TI OUR ADVISORY BOARD MEMBERS SPEAK - AN OPINION SURVEY ON THE OCCASION OF OUR SILVER ANNIVERSARY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1994 VL 47 IS 1 BP 125 EP 144 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA PE734 UT ISI:A1994PE73400010 ER PT J AU BOBROWSKI, P BRETSCHNEIDER, S TI INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL INTERORGANIZATIONAL RELATIONSHIPS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE ADOPTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY - AN EXPLORATORY-STUDY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT AB This article examines internal and external interorganizational relationships and their impact on the probability of organizational adoption of new technologies. First, the paper provides an overview of existing adoption-diffusion research along with a new conceptual framework that links internal and external interorganizational relationships among various industrial groups to the adoption-diffusion process. Based on this new conceptual framework, we formulate hypotheses and an empirical model. The model is estimated using data from 12 technology development projects funded by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). The results suggest that interorganizational relationships vary across industries and play a significant role in the adoption decisions of organizations. The results also suggest that external technology transfer agents facilitate this process. C1 SYRACUSE UNIV,MAXWELL SCH,TECHNOL & INFORMAT POLICY PROGRAM,SYRACUSE,NY 13244. SYRACUSE UNIV,SCH MANAGEMENT,SYRACUSE,NY 13244. CR BALDRIDGE JV, 1975, ADM SCI Q, V20, P165 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BURNS T, 1961, MANAGEMENT INNOVATIO COLEMAN J, 1957, SOCIOMETRY, V20, P253 CRAVENS DW, 1980, MARKETING DECISION M DARIAN JC, 1990, AM STRUGGLE TECHNOLO DRAFT RL, 1978, INNOVATIVE ORG EFRON B, 1982, JACKKNIFE BOOTSTRAP EFRON B, 1990, I MATH STATISTICS GATIGNON H, 1985, J CONSUMER RES, V11 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMITRICA, V25 HAGE J, 1970, SOCIAL CHANGE COMPLE HEELER RM, 1980, MANAGE SCI, V26, P1007 HEIL O, 1988, EXPLORING PREDICTING KIMBERLY JR, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P571 KLEIN BH, 1977, DYNAMICS EC KUCZMARSKI TD, 1988, MANAGING NEW PRODUCT LEONARDBARTON D, 1986, SECONDARY ADOPTION D MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1968, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MIZERSKI RW, 1982, J CONSUM RES, V9, P301 PALMER D, 1983, ADMIN SCI QUART, V28, P40 PORTER MJ, 1980, IND COMPETITORS PRICE JL, 1972, SOCIOLOGICAL Q, V13, P3 REES J, 1984, NEW TECHNOLOGY AM MA RICHINS ML, 1989, ADV CONSUM RES, V16, P697 ROBERTSON TS, 1986, J MARKETING JUL, P1 ROGERS EM, 1971, COMMUNICATION INNOVA ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SCHOORMAN FD, 1981, ACAD MANAGE REV, V6, P243 SCHUH GE, 1986, US DEV COUNTRIES EC SHANNON CE, 1972, MATH THEORY COMMUNIC TORNATZKY LG, 1990, PROCESSES TECHNOLOGI WILEMON D, 1986, ROLE IND URBAN TECHN NR 35 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 46 IS 3 BP 197 EP 211 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV120 UT ISI:A1994NV12000001 ER PT J AU HARMS, AA TI MARKET PENETRATION BY ENTRY-EXIT DYNAMICS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A generic characterization of the dynamics of market penetration by technological artifacts is here formulated on the basis of entry rate and exit rate considerations. It is shown that low-order reductions lead to the biologically based logistic dynamic, which - by empirical fit - has been found to be in very good agreement with numerous specific cases. In addition to the derivational justification of the logistic for artifact market penetration, we find that but a small number of parameters are involved in these autonomous characterizations suggesting therefore that market penetration may well be reduced to a similarly small number of dominant operative processes. Some nonautonomous extensions are also discussed. RP HARMS, AA, MCMASTER UNIV,HAMILTON L8S 4L7,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 ARTHUR WB, 1990, SCI AM FEB, P80 BOSSERT RW, 1977, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V10, P357 BRAUN M, 1982, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIO FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 INT I APPL SY MARCHETTI C, 1991, P INT C RES INNOVATI MURRAY JD, 1990, MATH BIOL NAKICENOVIC N, 1990, LIFE CYCLE LONG WAVE RICHARDSON GP, 1991, FEEDBACK THOUGHT SOC VERHULST PF, 1838, CORRES MATH PHYSIQUE, V10, P113 NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 46 IS 3 BP 213 EP 220 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV120 UT ISI:A1994NV12000002 ER PT J AU SARAPH, A SLESSER, M TI SADI CARNOT AND ECONOMIC ENGINES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article identifies the fundamental unit of the economy: an economic engine. It explores the structure and workings of the economic engine. it derives the properties of economies based on the economic engine. It illustrates the insights that can be obtained and policy leverages that can be sought with the identification of the economic engines. Although nature's tax on activity is a commonplace understanding now, the fundamental economic identity is not. The organization of nations and economies of our times, the discussions at forums like the UNCED (Bisso, 1992), clearly indicate that the economic identity is not recognized. Since identity is the basic prerequisite for communication or action, we present our thesis on the economic engine as the fundamental unit of the economy. C1 UNIV EDINBURGH,CTR HUMAN ECOL,EDINBURGH EH8 9YL,MIDLOTHIAN,SCOTLAND. RP SARAPH, A, UNIV GRONINGEN,CTR ENERGY & ENVIRONM STUDIES IVEM,9700 AB GRONINGEN,NETHERLANDS. CR *INT FED I ADV STU, 1974, EN AN BIESIOT W, 1992, WORLD CROSS ROADS SU BISSO R, 1992, 3RD WORLD GUIDE 1993 BOULDING K, 1963, PRINCIPLES EC POLICY CONSTANZA R, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA DALY H, 1977, STEADY STATE EC DEVRIES HJM, 1989, SUSTAINABLE RESOURCE ETHIER W, 1988, MODERN INT EC GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1971, ENTROPY LAW EC PROCE LOVELOCK JE, 1979, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E PEET J, 1990, LECTURE COMMISSION I PEET J, 1992, ENERGY ECOLOGICAL EC SCHRODINGER E, 1945, WHAT IS LIFE SLESSER M, 1978, ENERGY EC SLESSER M, 1990, MILIEU, P237 NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 46 IS 3 BP 259 EP 268 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV120 UT ISI:A1994NV12000004 ER PT J AU GHOSH, S MCGUCKIN, JT KUMBHAKAR, SC TI TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY, RISK ATTITUDE, AND ADOPTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY - THE CASE OF THE UNITED-STATES DAIRY-INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INEFFICIENCY; AGRICULTURE; VARIETIES AB This article analyzes the separate effects of technical efficiency and risk attitudes on the adoption of new technologies. We develop a model of firm behavior that incorporates both risk preferences and inefficiency into input and output decisions of the firm. The separate effects of risk aversion and inefficiency on adoption deicisions are estimated econometrically. In the first step, we estimate technical inefficiency using the stochastic frontier approach. These inefficiencies, along with the variables representing risk preferences, are used in the second step to explain adoption of new technologies. This framework is applied to explain adoption decisions of U.S. dairy farmers. C1 UNIV TEXAS,DEPT ECON,AUSTIN,TX 78712. NEW MEXICO STATE UNIV,LAS CRUCES,NM 88003. CR *USDA, 1985, AGR MARK STAT *USDA, 1985, DAIR FARM COSTS RET AIGNER DJ, 1977, J ECONOMETRICS, V6, P21 ANTLE JM, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P774 ANTLE JM, 1990, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V38, P517 BATH DL, 1978, DAIRY CATTLE PRINCIP BERA AK, 1990, J DEV ECON, V33, P263 BETTS C, 1988, USDA569 EC RES SERV BUXTON BM, 1986, 7 OFF TECHN ASS EC P CHAUDHURI DP, 1968, THESIS U DELHI DENISON EF, 1962, 13 WORLD BANK CTR EC FARRELL MJ, 1957, J ROYAL STATISTICA A, V120, P253 FEDER G, 1985, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V33, P255 FRIEDMAN M, 1948, J POLITICAL EC, V56, P279 GRILICHES Z, 1973, SCI TECHNOLOGY EC GR HOGLAND CR, 1964, 947 MICH STAT U AGR HUFFMAN WE, 1977, Q J ECON, V91, P59 JAMISON DT, 1982, FARMER ED FARM EFFIC JORGENSON DW, 1967, DETERMINANTS INVESTM JORGENSON DW, 1967, REV ECON STUD, V34, P249 JUST RE, 1983, OXFORD ECON PAP, V35, P307 KAMIEN MI, 1982, MARKET STRUCTURE INN KENDRICK JW, 1977, UNDERSTANDING PRODUC KUMBHAKAR SC, 1987, J ECONOMETRICS, V34, P335 KUMBHAKAR SC, 1991, J BUS ECON STAT, V9, P279 LAU LJ, 1978, DUAL APPROACH THEORY, V1 MADDALA GS, 1983, LTD DEPENDENT QUALIT MCPHERSON M, 1988, J DEV STUD, V21, P604 MEEUSEN W, 1977, INT ECON REV, V18, P435 SCHULTZ TW, 1975, J ECON LIT, V13, P827 SCHUMPETER JA, 1961, THEORY EC DEV SCHUMPETER JA, 1964, BUSINESS CYCLES SCHUMPETER JA, 1975, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SHAPIRO KH, 1983, J DEV STUD, V19, P179 YOTOPOULOS PA, 1976, EC DEV EMPIRICAL EST NR 35 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 46 IS 3 BP 269 EP 278 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV120 UT ISI:A1994NV12000005 ER PT J AU SHARMA, P BHARGAVA, SC TI A NONHOMOGENEOUS NONUNIFORM INFLUENCE MODEL OF INNOVATION DIFFUSION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A model of innovation diffusion which gives unequal weightage to the adopters of different temporal stages and captures commonly observed ups and downs in new product diffusion is proposed. It is shown that our model possesses features of the existing flexible diffusion models and shows better fit which is indicated by the values of R(adj)2, mean absolute deviation, and mean percentage error and estimates a larger market potential, M. It has an interesting feature of conversion factors, first increasing then vanishing, much before we approach market saturation, implying that there is a scope of new thrust in converting remaining potential adopters. C1 UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DELHI 110007,INDIA. RP SHARMA, P, NISTADS,HILLSIDE RD,NEW DELHI 110012,INDIA. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 EASINGWOOD CJ, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P273 GORE AP, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P163 JAIN A, 1993, MATH MODELING MANPOW KARSHENAS M, 1992, J FORECASTING, V11, P577 KOTLER P, 1971, MARKETING DECISION M MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, EVALUATION ESTIMATIO MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 STRANG D, 1991, SOCIOL METHOD RES, V19, P324 NR 13 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1994 VL 46 IS 3 BP 279 EP 288 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV120 UT ISI:A1994NV12000006 ER PT J AU SUTTMEIER, RP TI RISK IN CHINA - COMPARATIVE AND HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ITS SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION AND MANAGEMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB China's rapid industrial development and growing environmental problems call attention to how China approaches the management of risk. Traditional approaches to flood control, as well as contemporary approaches to technological hazards, suggests that risk management in China has been biased by historical and cultural forces tending towards highly centralized schemes. Unfortunately, these can be defeated by natural and social phenomena beyond the reach of the state's authority, often with a loss of confidence in the government. Contemporary China can be thought of as in a ''risk transition'' with regard to the hazards it faces, and the institutional strategies devised to deal with them. RP SUTTMEIER, RP, UNIV OREGON,DEPT POLIT SCI,EUGENE,OR 97403. CR *CTR POL RES, 1988, HUM DIM GLOB ENV CHA *P R C CHIN FED TR, 1961, SAF WORK BAARK E, 1991, CHINAS EC DILEMMAS 1 BADARACCO J, 1985, LOADING DICE 5 COUNT BAUER EE, 1986, CHINA TAKES OFF TECH BECK U, 1993, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BODDE D, 1991, CHINESE THOUGHT SOC BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BOXER B, 1988, CHINA Q MAR, P94 CHENEY D, 1990, CHEMTECH SEP, P529 CHI C, 1936, KEY EC AREAS CHINESE COVELLO V, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P161 DODGEN RA, 1991, LATE IMP CHINA, V12, P36 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE DOUGLAS M, 1985, RISK ACCEPTABILITY S DUNG Y, 1928, THESIS U PENNSYLVANI ENGLANDER T, 1986, SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR, V1, P55 EPSTEIN E, 1988, J CHINESE LAW, V2, P285 FEARNSIDE P, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P615 FERGUSON ES, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS FREUDENBURG WR, 1993, SOC FORCES, V71, P909 GAN L, 1992, AUG 4S EASST JOINT C GLICKMAN T, READINGS RISK GOLDSTONE JA, 1992, OCCASIONAL PAPER SER GREER C, 1979, WATER MANAGEMENT YEL HE B, 1991, CHINA EDGE CRISIS EC HENDERSON JB, 1984, DEV DECLINE CHINESE HOU W, 1990, ENV HIST REV, V14, P151 HUANG PCC, 1985, PEASANT EC SOCIAL CH HUGHES JD, 1989, ENV REV, V13, P15 INKELES A, 1993, INT J COMP SOCIOL, V34, P1 IPO DF, 1990, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V10, P113 JASANOFF S, 1986, RISK MANAGEMENT POLI JASANOFF S, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS JASANOFF S, 1990, 5TH BRANCH SCI ADVIS JASANOFF S, 1990, DAEDALUS, V19, P61 JOHNSON BB, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS KLEINMAN A, 1975, MED CHINESE CULTURES KLEINMAN A, 1975, MED CHINESE CULTURES, P589 KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK KUHN PA, 1990, SOULSTEALERS CHINESE KUNREUTHER HC, 1982, RISK MANAGEMENT CONT KWOK D, 1965, SCI MODERN CHINESE T LEONARD JK, 1988, MODERN ASIAN STUDIES, V22 LI JW, 1991, COMMUNICATION LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MAYO DG, 1991, ACCEPTABLE EVIDENCE MCDANIELS TL, 1991, J CROSS CULT PSYCHOL, V22, P103 MORGAN MG, 1981, READINGS RISK, P17 MORONE J, 1986, AVERTING CATASTROPHE MURPHEY R, 1967, MOD ASIAN STUD, V1, P313 NEE V, 1992, ADMIN SCI QUART, V37, P1 NEEDHAM J, 1971, SCI CIVILISATION CHI, V4 NICKUM JE, 1981, WATER MANAGEMENT ORG PERDUE PC, 1987, EXHAUSTING EARTH STA POLLOCK SM, 1986, INTERFACES, V16, P31 QU G, 1991, HUANJING BAOHU 0425 QU G, 1991, HUANJING BAOHU 0525 RAYNER S, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS RENN O, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P53 ROBINSON TW, 1992, FOREIGN RELATIONS CH ROCCA JL, 1992, CHINA Q, P402 ROSENBERG N, 1986, HOW W GREW RICH ROSS L, 1987, ENV LAW POLICY PEOPL ROSS L, 1988, ENV POLICY CHINA ROSS L, 1992, FOREIGN RELATIONS CH, P79 RUCKELSHAUS WD, 1990, READINGS RISK, P105 SALISBURY H, 1989, GREAT BLACK DRAGON F SCHALLER GB, 1993, LAST PANDA SCHWARTZ M, 1990, DIVIDED WE STAND SHRADERFRECHETT.K, 1985, RISK ANAL SCI METHOD SHRADERFRECHETT.K, 1991, ACCEPTABLE EVIDENCE SILK M, 1987, FOREIGN TRADE INVEST, P402 SLOVIC P, 1991, SCIENCE, V254, P1603 SMIL V, 1984, BAD EARTH SMIL V, 1992, OCCASIONAL PAPER SER SMIL V, 1993, CHINAS ENV INQUIRY L SMITH KR, 1990, INT ENV AFFAIRS, V2 SUTTMEIER RP, 1982, CHINA 4 MODERNIZATIO SUTTMEIER RP, 1988, SCI TECHNOLOGY POST TEIGEN KH, 1988, J BEHAVIORAL DECISIO, V1, P111 TUAN K, 1992, COMMUNICATION TYLER P, 1993, NY TIMES 0916, A13 VERMEER EB, 1991, CHINA INFORMATION, V6, P34 VOGEL D, 1986, NATIONAL STYLES REGU WILDAVSKY A, 1988, SEARCHING SAFETY WRIGHT G, 1984, BEHAVIORAL DECISION WRIGHT GN, 1980, INT J PSYCHOL, V15, P239 WU J, 1992, UNPUB MAY C CHIN ENV WYNNE B, 1982, RISK MANAGEMENT CONT YANG PF, 1991, UNPUB AUG ANN M AM R YANG TS, 1987, THESIS INDIANA U ZHU Z, 1992, FUZZY REGRESSION ANA, P21 NR 93 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 103 EP 123 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV119 UT ISI:A1994NV11900001 ER PT J AU HANSEN, PA SERIN, G TI MATERIAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE ADAPTABILITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL-STRUCTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB With the rapid development of new materials in recent decades, material adaptability has increasingly come into the focus of innovation theory. This article shows that material adaptability has involved special problems for enterprises. This is not least because a shift in material technology constitutes a more fundamental intervention in industrial production than other kinds of technological change. On the basis of Danish examples, this article discusses material adaptation processes in industry and barriers to such adaptation. The article attempts to answer two questions. What is the significance of various development strategies for the adaptability of companies to new materials? And what lessons can be learned from previous adaptation processes, against the particular background of the introduction of plastic materials in industrial production? The article discusses the role of materials as stabilizing and destabilizing factors in the industrial structure, and in this connection the importance of ''learning by doing,'' ''user-producer relations'' and the role of raw material suppliers in the process of adaptation to new materials. C1 ROSKILDE UNIV CTR,DEPT ECON & PLANNING,DK-4000 ROSKILDE,DENMARK. RP HANSEN, PA, ROSKILDE UNIV CTR,DEPT GEOG & COMP SCI,DK-4000 ROSKILDE,DENMARK. CR *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1989, 6 STI REV *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1990, ADV MAT *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1992, TECHN EC PROGR TECHN *UK EC INT UN, 1990, 2026 SPEC REP ABERNATHY WJ, 1975, OMEGA, V3 AMENDOLA G, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P496 ANDERSON P, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P604 ANDERSON P, 1991, TECHNOLOGY MANAG MAY, P26 ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 ARTHUR WB, 1956, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC CAVES RE, 1977, Q J ECON, V91, P241 CHRISTENSEN JF, 1992, PRODUKTINNOVATIONER DAHMEN E, 1950, SVENSK IND FORETAGAR DAHMEN E, 1988, HIST REV EC HIST, V36 DOSI G, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P1120 DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC DUBOIS JH, 1972, PLASTICS HIST US FRIEDEL R, 1983, E ANGLIAN MAGAZINE HAAG, 1982, FORETAG NATVERK SNS HAKANSSON H, 1987, IND TECHNOLOGICAL DE HAKANSSON H, 1989, CORPORATE TECHNOLOGI HANSEN PA, 1988, INNOVATIONSSTRUKTURE HANSEN PA, 1989, THESIS AKADEMISK FOR HANSEN PA, 1993, RES POLICY, V22, P181 HARRIGAN KR, 1980, STRATEGIES DECLINING HARRIGAN KR, 1983, HARVARD BUS REV, V61, P111 KARNOE P, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA KATZ S, 1978, PLASTICS DESIGN MATE LUNDVALL BA, 1985, PRODUCT INNOVATION U LUNDVALL BA, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC LUNDVALL BA, 1992, NATIONAL SYSTEMS INN MADSEN H, 1987, DANSK PLASTRORINDUST MADSEN H, 1991, THESIS ROSKILDE U MASKELL P, 1992, THESIS HANDELSHOJSKO NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC TEECE D, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC WILLINGER, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC NR 39 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 125 EP 137 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV119 UT ISI:A1994NV11900002 ER PT J AU LAND, KC LOVELL, CAK THORE, S TI PRODUCTIVE EFFICIENCY UNDER CAPITALISM AND STATE SOCIALISM - AN EMPIRICAL INQUIRY USING CHANCE-CONSTRAINED DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID WORK AB In this paper we undertake a comparison of the productive efficiency of a set of West European market economies and a set of East European planned economies. We employ the techniques of chance-constrained data envelopment analysis to conduct the comparison. These techniques are particularly appropriate when the performance of producers depends on their ability to make resource allocation decisions in the presence of technological and market uncertainties. We find the market economies to have been much more efficient in their allocation of resources. C1 UNIV TEXAS,IC2 INST INNOVAT CREATIV CAPITAL,AUSTIN,TX 78705. UNIV GEORGIA,DEPT ECON,ATHENS,GA 30602. DUKE UNIV,DEPT SOCIOL,DURHAM,NC 27706. DUKE UNIV,CTR DEMOG STUDIES,DURHAM,NC 27706. CR BANKER R, 1989, RES GOVT NONPROFIT A, V5, P125 BARRO RJ, 1971, AM ECON REV, V61, P82 BERGSON A, 1971, COMPARISONS EC SYSTE, P261 BERLINER J, 1957, FACTORY MANAGER USSR BERLINER J, 1964, AM ECON REV, V54, P480 BERLINER J, 1974, COMP EC SYSTEMS BERLINER J, 1976, INNOVATON DECISION S BURAWOY M, 1985, AM SOCIOL REV, V50, P723 CHAREMZA W, 1988, PLAN DISEQUILIBRIA C CHARNES A, 1958, MANAGE SCI, V4, P235 CHARNES A, 1963, OPER RES, V11, P18 CHARNES A, 1967, ECONOMETRICA, V35, P294 CHARNES A, 1978, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V2, P429 CHARNES A, 1985, ANN OPER RES, V2, P59 CHARNES A, 1985, J ECONOMETRICS, V30, P91 DEBREU G, 1959, THEORY VALUE KONRAI J, 1965, ECONOMETRICA, V33, P141 KORNAI J, 1971, ANTIEQUILIBRIUM KORNAI J, 1973, MULTI LEVEL PLANNING KORNAI J, 1975, MATH PLANNING STRUCT KORNAI J, 1979, ECONOMETRICA, V47, P801 KORNAI J, 1991, ROAD FREE EC LAKI M, 1980, ACTA OECON, V25, P37 LAND KC, 1987, FAL M AM SOC ASS CHI LAND KC, 1992, PUBLIC FINANC, V47, P109 LAND KC, 1993, MANAGERIAL DECISION, V14, P541 LANGE O, 1962, INTRO ECONOMETRICS LIPTAK T, 1973, MULTI LEVEL PLANNING MARER P, 1981, HUNGARY DECADE EC RE MORONEY JR, 1990, J COMP ECON, V14, P199 MORONEY JR, 1992, PERFORMANCE MARKET P SEIFORD LM, 1990, J ECONOMETRICS, V46, P7 SHUBIK M, 1977, EQUILIBRIUM DISEQUIL STARK D, 1986, AM SOCIOL REV, V51, P492 THORE S, 1987, EUR J OPER RES, V30, P267 THORE S, 1991, EC LOGISTICS OPTIMIZ NR 36 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 139 EP 152 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV119 UT ISI:A1994NV11900003 ER PT J AU DEBECKER, A MODIS, T TI DETERMINATION OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN S-CURVE LOGISTIC FITS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Look-up tables and graphs are provided for determining the uncertainties during logistic fits, on the three parameters M, alpha and t(o) describing an S-curve of the form: S(t) = M/1 + e(-alpha(t-t(o))). The uncertainties and the associated confidence levels are given as a function of the uncertainty on the data points and the length of the historical period. Correlations between these variables are also examined; they make ''what-if'' games possible even before doing the fit. The study is based on some 35,000 S-curve fits on simulated data covering a variety of conditions and carried out via a chi2 minimization technique. A rule-of-thumb general result is that, given at least half of the S-curve range and a precision of better than 10% on each hitorical point, the uncertainty on M will be less than 20% with 90% confidence level. C1 DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP INT EUROPE,12 AVE MORIGNES CP 176,CH-1213 PETIT LANCY 1,SWITZERLAND. INSEAD,FONTAINEBLEAU,FRANCE. COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10027. UNIV GENEVA,CH-1211 GENEVA 4,SWITZERLAND. IMD,LAUSANNE,SWITZERLAND. UNIV LYON 1,F-69365 LYON 2,FRANCE. CR DEBECKER A, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P267 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 JAMES F, MINUIT FUNCTION MINI MARCHETTI C, 1983, INNOVATION IND EC TO, P83 MARCHETTI C, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P373 NARENDRA SG, 1971, REV MODERN PHYSICS, V43, P231 NR 6 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 153 EP 173 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV119 UT ISI:A1994NV11900004 ER PT J AU TEITEL, S TI SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS, RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES, COUNTRY SIZE, AND PER-CAPITA INCOME - A CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY INDICATORS; ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; SCIENCE AB It has proven very difficult to link scientific and technological activity with economic development. The selection of measures, or indicators, of scientific and technological activity poses severe conceptual and data problems; technical problems also arise in defining and measuring economic development. In this study, one science and technology output indicator, scientific publications, is regressed with R&D expenditures, which are in tum related to income per capita and population size. A possible language bias effect is also considered. The results are statistically significant and corroborate prior hypotheses. The econometric patterns established could be used, it is suggested, for policy analysis and projections. C1 WORLD BANK,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. CR *INT AM DEV BANK, 1988, 1988 REP *NAT SCI F, 1973, SCI IND 1972 *NAT SCI F, 1979, SCI IND 1978 *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1988, 1988 SCI TECHN POL P *UN, 1964, ROL PAT TRANSF TECHN *UNESCO, 1973 1988 STAT YB *UNESCO, 1980, STAT YB 1978 79 *WORLD BANK, 1987, 1987 WORLD DEV REP *WORLD BANK, 1987, WORLD TABL *WORLD BANK, 1989, WORLD TABL 1988 89 BHALLA AS, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P177 EVENSON RE, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI, P89 FREEMAN C, 1969, MEASUREMENT OUTPUT R HARVEY AC, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P245 INTRILIGATOR MD, 1978, ECONOMETRIC MODELS T JAMES H, 1978, NSFSIU791 NAT SCI F MADDALA GS, 1977, ECONOMETRICS MANSFIELD E, 1977, PRODUCTION APPLICATI MORITALOU H, 1985, SCI TECHNOLOGY INDIC NARIN F, 1989, SCIENCE, V245, P600 SOETE LG, 1983, SCIENTOMETRICS, V5, P31 TEITEL S, 1981, RES POLICY, V10, P127 TEITEL S, 1987, WORLD DEV, V15, P1225 THEIL H, 1971, PRINCIPLES ECONOMETR TITEL S, 1984, J DEV ECON, V16, P39 VELHO LML, 1985, REV BRASILEIRA TECNO, V16, P35 NR 26 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 175 EP 187 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV119 UT ISI:A1994NV11900005 ER PT J AU MARCHETTI, C TI MILLENARIAN CYCLES IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE CATHOLIC-CHURCH - A SYSTEMS-ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In order to apply the quantitative methodology of systems analysis to the Catholic religion, we took the number of saints canonized as a witness to some intensity of faith. Assuming that a religion, seen from a sociological point of view, is a cultural trait, we applied the temporal rules of cultural diffusion to the indicator, the number of saints. The procedure may seem arbitrary, but the results of the analysis appear very significant. The canonization of saints shows two pulses, highly self-consistent over a thousand years: the first one centered in 340 AD and the second in 1360 AD. Applying the appropriate equation shows that the first pulse started around 500 BC, lending strength to the hypothesis that the Christian doctrine is rooted in the sect of the ''Servants of Jahve.'' The second one appears to be at its end. We analyze the possibility that science and technology may constitute the third pulse of the Christian Weltanschauung, or world view. CR BARGELLINI P, 1977, 1000 SANTI GIORNO MENSCH G, 1975, TECHNOLOGISCHE PATT NOBLE DF, WORLD WOMEN CLERICAL PRICE DJD, 1963, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI WHITE L, 1968, DYNAMO VIRGIN RECONS NR 5 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1994 VL 46 IS 2 BP 189 EP 196 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NV119 UT ISI:A1994NV11900006 ER PT J AU JOHNSON, BB MARCOVITCH, J TI USES AND APPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY FUTURES IN NATIONAL-DEVELOPMENT - THE BRAZILIAN EXPERIENCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Science and technology is increasingly important to national development. In view of the widening international economic and technological gaps, a critical question is the planning and management of science and technology for national development. This paper explores planning theory, the process of technological innovation, and the relevance of future studies to these issues. Four levels of technological innovation planning are identified: national, sectoral, enterprise, and operations. Case studies from the Brazilian experience at each level are presented and analyzed providing the basis of suggestions concerning the uses and applications of technology futures in developing countries. C1 UNIV SAO PAULO,INST ADV STUDIES,SAO PAULO,BRAZIL. RP JOHNSON, BB, UNIV SAO PAULO,INST MANAGEMENT,SAO PAULO,BRAZIL. CR *CNPQ, 1979, AV TECN ALC ET *IA PLAN MAUA, 1984, PREV AN TECN PROAL S *SEA, 1990, CEN PESQ AGR ASP TEO BARBIERI FE, 1989, 14 S NAC PESQ ADM C BEST MH, 1990, NEW COMPETITION I IN BRIGHT JR, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA CLARK N, 1990, FUTURES, V22 GUIMARAES P, 1989, PROSPECTIVA ESTRATEG HOBDAY M, 1985, DEV CHANGE, V16, P313 JANTSCH E, 1969, PERSPECTIVES PLANNIN, P29 JANTSCH E, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL PLANNI JOHNSON B, 1989, P ENCONTRO INT PROSP, P166 JOHNSON B, 1990, ANAL PROSPECTIVA COM JOHNSON B, 1990, BID SECAB CINDA, P321 JOHNSON B, 1991, REV ADM, V26 JOHNSON B, 1992, 17 AN S NAC GEN IN T JOHNSON B, 1992, 17 S NAC GER IN TECN MARCOVITCH J, 1992, COMPETITIVIDADE TECN NEWMAN WH, 1951, ADM ACTION TECHNIQUE, P15 OZBEKHAN H, 1969, PERSPECTIVES PLANNIN PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG SWAGER W, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P85 TWISS B, 1974, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC UTTERBACK J, 1974, SCIENCE, V183 WEISBECKER L, 1992, ISSUES PERFORMING TE WEISBECKER L, 1992, ISSUES USE TECHNOLOG, P7 WRIGHT J, 1992, JUL EMBRAPA CNPUV BE NR 27 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 45 IS 1 BP 1 EP 30 PG 30 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN981 UT ISI:A1994NN98100001 ER PT J AU SHIN, T KIM, H TI RESEARCH FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES AND TECHNOLOGICAL-DEVELOPMENT IN KOREA - SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICIES IN NATIONAL RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper reviews the formulation of the science and technology (S&T) policy undertaken by the Korean government for the national R&D program. The program, the HAN project, was launched after systematic foresight activities were carried out, setting the long-term national goals and priorities, and selecting key technologies to be developed for the next decade. Eleven areas of technology were selected, including five product-oriented technologies and six fundamental technologies, of which indigenous technology capability was recognized as critical for increased national competitiveness. The foresight procedures of this planning include coordination, S&T monitoring, consensus, and commitment stages. Each stage was carefully studied by a special task force, although planning of the program is still being studied in detail for effective implementation. This is a significant turnaround of S&T policy, redirecting the national R&D program from the bottom-up approach to the top-down approach. RP SHIN, T, KOREAN INST SCI & TECHNOL,INST SCI & TECHNOL POLICY,DEPT TECHNOL FORECASTING,POB 255,SEOUL O29665331,SOUTH KOREA. CR *MIN SCI TECHN, 1992, ANN REP SCI TECHN *S K IND TECHN AS, 1992, MAJ IND IND TECHN BILLICH F, 1989, SCI TECHNOLOGY PLANN BLACKMAN AW, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P301 DRILHON G, 1991, CHOOSING PRIORITIES KANG IK, 1992, STUDY SELECTION PLAN KODAMA F, 1992, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P70 MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MILLETT SM, 1991, MANAGERS GUIDE TECHN SHIN T, 1992, STEP1KIST WORK PAP VANDIJK JWA, 1991, FORECASTING TECHNOLO, P25 WEINSBECKER LW, 1992, UN BRANCH SCI TECHNO YOON MS, 1991, EVALUATION NATIONAL NR 13 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 45 IS 1 BP 31 EP 45 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN981 UT ISI:A1994NN98100002 ER PT J AU GOULET, D TI PARTICIPATORY TECHNOLOGY-ASSESSMENT - INSTITUTIONS AND METHODS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The subordination of technology to finalities outside it must be built into technology assessments. In order to do so, developing countries need: technological ''gatekeepers'' to monitor outside developments; ''focal points' to receive, screen, and distribute relevant knowledge needed for technology assessment; and institutional arrangements to assure ongoing information exchange, concerted planning, and collaborative implementation among government, producers, and researchers. Three nationalities vie for supremacy in decisional arenas: technical, political, and ethical. Interaction among the three should be circular, not vertical. Technology assessment's (TA) qualitative dimensions can be managed by using evaluative tools such as the ''development flower.'' RP GOULET, D, UNIV NOTRE DAME,DEPT ECON,INST INT PEACE STUDIES,POB 639,NOTRE DAME,IN 46556. CR *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1991, ENV IND PREL SET *POP CRIS COMM, 1987, INT HUM SUFF IND *RED WEALTH PROGR, 1990, NEW WAYS MEAS EC CHA *UN DEV PROGR, 1992, HUM DEV REP 1992 ALLEN TJ, R&D MANAGE, V1, P14 ALLEN TJ, TECHNOL REV, V73, P3 ELLUL J, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL BLUFF, P153 FREIRE P, 1970, PEDAGOG OPPRESSED, P75 FREIRE P, 1973, ED CRITICAL CONSCIOU, R8 GONOD PF, 1974, CLES TRANSFERT TECHN GOULET D, 1979, J INT AFF, V33, P89 GOULET D, 1979, SOC EDUC, V43, P427 GOULET D, 1986, WORLD DEV, V14, P301 GOULET D, 1989, FUTURES RES Q, V5, P5 GOULET D, 1989, UNCERTAIN PROMISE VA, P17 GOULET D, 1989, UNCERTAIN PROMISE VA, P42 GOULET D, 1992, J SOCIOECONOMICS, V20, P245 HABERMAS J, 1981, THEORY COMMUNICATIVE, V1 KAPLINSKY R, 1990, EC SMALL APPROPRIATE MCCOLM RB, 1991, FREEDOM WORLD POLITI MILLIKAN MF, 1962, ORG PLANNING PROGRAM, V8, P34 MORRIS MD, 1979, MEASURING CONDITION RITCHIECALDER L, 1968, NOV ADDR CONS SOC AN, P4 SABATO JA, 1976, IMPACT SCI SOC, V25 SAGASTI FR, 1979, TECHNOLOGY PLANNING, P6 SALMEN LF, 1992, BENEFICIARY ASSESSME SCHUMACHER EF, 1973, SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 45 IS 1 BP 47 EP 61 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN981 UT ISI:A1994NN98100003 ER PT J AU GOONATILAKE, S TI TECHNOLOGY-ASSESSMENT - SOME QUESTIONS FROM A DEVELOPING-COUNTRY PERSPECTIVE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The emergence of technology assessment did not occur in a societal or value vacuum; neither did its practice. Today's TA expertise is the outcome of historically located concerns, still unique to a particular narrow space (''Euro America'') and a narrow time frame (post-1960s). Them are wide cultural, economic, societal and historical variations in the developing world as compared to the developed Western nations. This variation limits the usefulness of the simple transfer of concepts developed in the West. There are also many different potential stakeholders in developing countries. These also include those outside the formal sectors who variously define desirable and undesirable aspects of the social and other factors of technology. This results in different cultural definitions of ethics, different visions of gender equality, different attitudes to the environment, different contents and values in local knowledge systems, and different social organizations associated with a given technology. An effective TA should recognize this multiplicity. It requires cognition, action, and debate on these key factors. At times this becomes an unavoidable developmental debate. RP GOONATILAKE, S, NEW SCH SOCIAL RES,CTR STUDIES SOCIAL CHANGE,64 UNIV PL,NEW YORK,NY 10003. CR 1991, RES PROPOSAL F METHO *OECD, 1989, BIOT EC WID IMP *UNCTAD, 1991, TRAD DEV ASP IMP NE BAGCHI AK, 1987, ILO162 WORK PAP, P52 BANKOWSKI Z, 1989, WORLD HLTH APR BENDIX R, 1963, WORK AUTHORITY IND BERER M, 1990, NEW SCI, V124, P58 BHALLA T, 1984, BLENDING NEW TRADITI BLAUNER R, 1964, ALIENATION FREEDOM CALLAHAN D, 1990, HASTINGS CTR REPOR S CAMPBELL CS, 1990, HASTINGS CTR REPOR S CORDES C, 1986, CHRONICLE HIGHER ED, V33 DONNELLEY S, 1989, HASTINGS CTR R JUL S ELSHTAIN JB, 1901, UTNE RECORDER, V44 FINKELSTEIN JL, 1990, HASTINGS CTR REP JUL, P13 GOONATILAKE S, 1979, J SCI IND RES JUL, P38 GOONATILAKE S, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL INDEPE GOONATILAKE S, 1984, ABORTED DISCOVERY SC, P97 HEYZER N, 1988, DAUGHTERS IND WORK S HOFFMAN CA, 1990, BIOSCIENCE, V40 HUNT M, 1986, NY TIMES MAGAZI 0119, P32 JANSEN SC, 1988, RESOURCES FEMINIST R, V17, P4 JUMA C, 1990, GENE HUNTERS JUNNE G, 1987, 3RD WORLD Q, V11, P128 KAPLINSKY R, 1987, MICROELECTRONICS EMP KELLER EF, 1985, GENDER SCI KINICHIRO K, 1989, HASTINGS CTR REPORT, V19 KRAMER PS, 1990, SIGNS J WOMEN CULTUR, V16 LARSON E, 1986, SCI AM JUN, P24 NELKIN D, 1990, DANGEROUS DIAGNOSTIC PATEL V, MISUSE PRENATAL DIAG PFEIFFER JE, 1969, EMERGENCES MAN, P135 PORTER AL, 1993, ISSUES USE TECHNOLOG RAJA A, 1990, INFORMATION TECHNOLO RICE AK, 1953, AHMADEBAD EXPT ROESSNER, 1985, IMPACT OFFICE AUTOMA SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES SERCOVICH F, 1991, DEV COUNTRIES NEW BI SIGURDSON J, 1990, MEASURING DYNAMICS T SINGH N, 1990, TEMPORALITY LOGICAL TAKEZAWA S, 1969, INT J COMP SOCIOL, V10, P178 VIDEKODAMA F, 1990, MEASURING DYNAMICS T WHEELER DL, 1991, CHRONICLE HIGHER ED, V37 WIND JP, 1990, HASTINGS CTR REPOR S NR 44 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 45 IS 1 BP 63 EP 77 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN981 UT ISI:A1994NN98100004 ER PT J AU YAMAGUCHI, K NIWA, H TI NEW THINKING ON JAPANESE COMMUNITY-DEVELOPMENT IN THE INFORMATION AGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A new-thinking paradigm in economics is first briefly discussed. Then a history of postwar industrial-age community development in Japan is reviewed with a focus on the recent government policy to reactivate local communities. And some new-thinking traits that have been observed in these community developments are discussed. Finally, using this new-thinking economic paradigm several suggestions are made for the advancement of community development in Japan. RP YAMAGUCHI, K, NAGOYA UNIV COMMERCE,SCH BUSINESS ADM,NISSHIN,AICHI 47001,JAPAN. CR 1990, REPORTS FURUSATO PRO LOVELOCK JE, 1968, AGES GAIA BIOGRAPHY ROSENBLATT B, 1991, LEARNING GNU EMACS WHITE K, 1982, COMMUNITY OAND TRUST YAMAGUCHI K, 1988, WALRAS KEYNES MARX S YAMAGUCHI K, 1990, FUTURES, V22, P1023 YAMAGUCHI K, 1991, ISLANDS CULTURE DEV, P201 NR 7 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 45 IS 1 BP 79 EP 92 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN981 UT ISI:A1994NN98100005 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI WHAT DO THE TENDER-MINDED HAVE TO TEACH THE TOUGH-MINDED SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, JOSEPH F COATES COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JAN PY 1994 VL 45 IS 1 BP 103 EP 107 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN981 UT ISI:A1994NN98100007 ER PT J AU MAHAJAN, V MULLER, E TI INNOVATION DIFFUSION IN A BORDERLESS GLOBAL MARKET - WILL THE 1992 UNIFICATION OF THE EUROPEAN-COMMUNITY ACCELERATE DIFFUSION OF NEW IDEAS, PRODUCTS, AND TECHNOLOGIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MODELS AB One of the more challenging aspects of the economic unification of the 12 nations of the European Community, initiated on January 1, 1993, is its effects on the diffusion of new ideas, technologies, and products. By becoming ''borderless'' the European Community should expect to create a global market in which innovation diffusion is faster than if its member countries were not united. Will unification lead to faster diffusion of new ideas, products. and technologies? To fully answer this question, a diffusion study that compares preunification and postunification diffusion rates is required. Since the unification process is still in progress, the challenge is whether or not we can shed some light on this question based on what we know about the diffusion processes in the European Community countries prior to their unification. Using a diffusion modeling approach, this article, derives conditions under which unification leads to faster market penetration. In particular, we show that if the innovation diffusion processes in the member nations of the European Community prior to unification were similar to one another, no apparent change will be observed in the diffusion of new ideas, technologies, and products in the unified European Community. We evaluate the above conditions among the member and nonmember nations of the European Community by examining the data on the diffusion of videocassette recorders. The empirical evidence suggests that the diffusion processes do differ among the member and nonmember nations of the European Community and thus the unification should result in faster diffusion of new ideas, technologies, and products. C1 UNIV TEXAS,JOHN P HARBIN CENTENNIAL CHAIR BUSINESS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. TEL AVIV UNIV,RECANATI SCH BUSINESS ADM,IL-69978 TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. CR 1992, BUSINESS WEEK 0914, P24 1992, BUSINESS WEEK 0914, P44 1992, FORTUNE 0824, P136 1992, FORTUNE 1214, P144 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 CHAPMAN RG, 1982, J MARKETING RES, V19, P288 ENGLE RF, 1984, HDB ECONOMETRICS, V2 FLAM H, 1992, J ECON PERSPECT, V6, P7 GATIGNON H, 1989, MARKET SCI, V8, P231 KOTLER P, 1991, MARKETING MANAGEMENT MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MALHOTRA NK, 1984, J MARKETING RES, V21, P20 MITCHELL C, 1992, AUSTIN AM STATE 0705, C4 OHMAE K, 1989, HARVARD BUS REV, V67, P152 ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION TAKADA H, 1991, J MARKETING, V55, P48 VITA MC, 1992, AUSTIN AM STATE 0705, C1 NR 17 TC 24 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 45 IS 3 BP 221 EP 235 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN983 UT ISI:A1994NN98300001 ER PT J AU SHRIVASTAVA, P TI TECHNOLOGICAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ROOTS OF INDUSTRIAL CRISES - LESSONS FROM EXXON-VALDEZ AND BHOPAL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID RISK AB Industrial crises or disasters are usually blamed on the failure of technology or operator error. This article provides a deeper examination of the causes of industrial crises. Crises are rooted in systemic human, organizational, and technological contradictions. These contradictions give rise to vicious circles of behavior that lead to cumulation of risk and hazard within a system. Contradictory pressures in the technological core lead to simultaneous and interacting failures that trigger accidents. The preconditions for these accidents, and the escalation of accident effects, is caused by human and organizational contradictions in the context in which the technology is located. Conflicting individual perceptions of risks, leads managers to make risky decisions. These contradictions and failures are illustrated using data from the Bhopal and Exxon Valdez crises. Implications for managing hazardous systems are explored. C1 BUCKNELL UNIV,HOWARD I SCOTT CHAIR,LEWISBURG,PA 17837. CR *AL OIL SPILL COMM, 1990, SPILL WRECK EXX VAL *EXX CORP, 1988, ANN REP *INT C FREE TRAD U, 1985, TRAD UN REP BHOP *NAT TRANSP SAF BO, 1990, PB90916405 *UN CARB CORP, 1985, BHOP METH IS INC INV ALDRICH HE, 1979, ORG ENV BERRY T, 1988, DREAM EARTH BILLINGS RS, 1980, ADM SCI Q, V25, P300 BOGARD WP, 1987, BHOPAL TRAGEDY LANGU BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BROWN L, 1991, STATE WORLD CLARKE L, 1989, ACCEPTABLE RISK CUMMINGSSAXTON J, 1988, IND CRISIS Q, V2, P139 DAVENI RA, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P634 DAVIDSON A, 1990, WAKE EXXON VALDEZ DEGRAZIA A, 1985, CLOUD BHOPAL DOGAN M, 1988, METROPOLIS ERA, V2 DOUGLAS M, 1987, RISK CULTURE EVEREST L, 1985, POISON CLOUD HARRALD JR, 1992, IND CRISIS Q, V6, P190 HEYDEBRAND W, 1977, SOCIOLOGICAL Q, V18, P83 KEMENEY J, 1979, PRESIDENTIAL COMMISS KINGHORN S, 1985, SEP C CRIT PERSP ORG KUNREUTHER H, 1987, INSURING MANAGING HA KURTZMAN D, 1987, KILLING WIND LEVINE AG, 1982, LOVE CANAL SCI POLIT LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1994, CHALLENGE 21ST CENTU LINSTONE HA, 1994, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MARRONE JG, 1986, AVERTING CATASTROPHE MASON RO, 1981, CHALLENGING STRATEGI MASUCH M, 1985, ADMIN SCI QUART, V30, P14 MILBURN TW, 1984, HUM RELAT, V36, P1141 MILES MB, 1984, QUALITATIVE DATA ANA MILLER D, 1990, ICARUS PARADOX EXCEP MITROFF I, 1990, WE ARE SO BIG POWERF MITROFF II, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P83 MOREHOUSE W, 1988, BHOPAL TRAGEDY MORIN E, 1993, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V7, P5 NELKIN D, 1989, DANGEROUS DIAGNOSTIC OCONNOR J, 1987, MEANING CRISIS OSBORN RN, 1988, ACAD MANAGE J, V31, P924 PAUCHANT TC, 1988, IND CRISIS Q, V2, P53 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PICOU JS, 1992, IND CRISIS Q, V6, P235 QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 RADELL WW, 1992, IND CRISIS Q, V6, P295 RASMUSSEN J, 1989, 20 WORLD BANK ENV WO ROBERTS KH, 1989, IND CRISIS Q, V3, P111 RODIN M, 1992, IND CRISIS Q, V6, P214 ROGERS W, 1986, REPORT PRESIDENTIAL ROSENTHAL U, 1990, MANAGEMENT DISASTERS ROSS J, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P274 SHRIVASTAVA P, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P285 SHRIVASTAVA P, 1992, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SHRIVASTAVA P, 1993, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V7, P23 SHRIVASTAVA P, 1993, LEARNING DISASTER LE SLOVIC P, 1981, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V376, P17 SMART C, 1977, ADM SCI Q, V22, P640 SOUDER WE, 1988, IND CRISIS Q, V2, P185 STARBUCK WH, 1978, J BUS ADMIN, V9, P111 STAW BM, 1981, ADM SCI Q, V26, P501 STEVENS W, 1989, 2ND INT C IND ORG CR, P5 SUFFERIN SC, 1985, BHOPAL ITS SETTING R THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TOMBS S, 1990, IND CRISIS Q, V5 TURNER BA, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P378 TURNER BA, 1978, MAN MADE DISASTERS TVERSKY A, 1973, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V5, P207 VAUGHAN D, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P225 WEICK KE, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P305 WILDARSKY A, 1988, SEARCHING SAFETY YIN RK, 1981, KNOWLEDGE CREATION D, V3, P97 NR 73 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 45 IS 3 BP 237 EP 253 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN983 UT ISI:A1994NN98300002 ER PT J AU EDLER, D RIBAKOVA, T TI THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS ON THE LEVEL AND STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT IN GERMANY - A SIMULATION STUDY FOR THE PERIOD 1980-2000 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper presents the results of an empirical study of the long-term impact of industrial robots on employment in Germany. The study is based on an improved version of the Leontief-Duchin-Szyld dynamic input-output model. After a brief description of the technology in question, the history and possible processes of industrial robots' diffusion in Germany until the year 2000 are discussed. A special section is devoted to simulation techniques, sources of information, and methods of data organization within a dynamic input-output framework. In the last part of the paper we focus attention on the results of three different simulations, each representing different assumptions. Although there remains uncertainty about the absolute level of the employment effect of industrial robots, it seems very likely that the overall impact of this selected new technology may be negative. But more important is the finding that industrial robots have a serious impact on the sectoral and especially the occupational structure of employment. In all simulations there is a clear displacement tendency for occupations with comparatively low skill requirements while more qualified jobs may gain from the diffusion of industrial robots. In the Appendix the formal description of the model employed is given. C1 RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,INST ECON & IND ENGN,NOVOSIBIRSK,RUSSIA. RP EDLER, D, DEUTSCH INST WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCH,KONIGIN LUISE STR 5,D-14195 BERLIN,GERMANY. CR ABELE E, 1984, SCHRIFTENREIHE HUMAN, V61 BARTENSCHLAGER HP, 1982, SCHRIFTENREIHE HUMAN, V23 BLAZEJCZAK J, 1987, BEITRAGE STRUKTURFOR DUCHIN F, 1985, METROECONOMICA, V37, P269 EDLER D, 1990, BEITRAGE STRUKTURFOR EDLER D, 1990, EMPLOYMENT IMPACT NE, P261 EDLER D, 1993, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V4 FILIPKOHN R, 1989, SEKTORALE GESAMTWIRT GERSTENBERGER W, 1989, IFO STUDIEN STRUKTUR, V12 GORZIG B, 1985, BERECHNUNG PRODUKTIO HAGEMANN H, 1985, BEITRAGE ARBEITSMARK, V88, P291 HANSMANN KW, 1984, NEUE TECHNOLOGIEN ME HOWELL DR, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P297 LEONTIEF W, 1986, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA SCHETTKAT R, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE SCHRAFT RD, 1984, SCHRIFTENREIHE KONTA, V115 SCHUNEMANN TM, 1986, Z BETRIEBSWIRT, V56, P953 STAGLIN R, 1992, BEITRAGE STRUKTURFOR TCHIJOV Y, 1992, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V3, P287 VOLKHOLZ V, 1982, OECD MICROELECTRONIC, V7 WEISS JP, 1993, WIRTSCHAFTLICHE ENTW NR 21 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 45 IS 3 BP 255 EP 274 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN983 UT ISI:A1994NN98300003 ER PT J AU OLSZEWSKI, P MOKHTARIAN, P TI TELECOMMUTING FREQUENCY AND IMPACTS FOR STATE OF CALIFORNIA EMPLOYEES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TRAVEL AB Panel surveys conducted as part of the State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project produced an extensive database on demographic characteristics, travel behavior, office activities, and attitudes of telecommuters and control group members. Analysis of these data gives valuable insight into the frequency of working at home and its effect on job activities and the use of office technologies. Participants telecommuted about 6 days per month on average. There was no significant impact of demographic variables such as age, gender, or number of children in the household on frequency of telecommuting. No correlation was also detected between this frequency and home-to-work distance. Two separate factor analyses examined the impact of telecommuting on changes in usage of office technologies and office activities. Telecommuters in this sample have a higher usage of personal computing than control group members and a decreasing trend in use of conventional office communications and mobile communications. Telecommuters also scored higher than the control group in frequency of analyzing information and decision making. This suggests that although telecommuting naturally decreases the level of interaction with others, the decision-making process is not impeded. C1 UNIV CALIF DAVIS,DEPT CIVIL & ENVIRONM ENGN,DAVIS,CA 95616. RP OLSZEWSKI, P, NANYANG TECHNOL UNIV,SCH CIVIL & STRUCT ENGN,NANYANG AVE,SINGAPORE 2263,SINGAPORE. CR *JALA ASS INC, 1990, CAL TEL PIL PROJ FIN DIXON WJ, 1992, BMDP STATISTICAL SOF, V1 KENNEDY JB, 1976, BASIC STATISTICAL ME KITAMURA R, 1990, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1285, P98 KITAMURA R, 1991, 19TH P ANN M PTRC BR, P69 LATHEY C, 1975, TELECOMMUNICATIONS S LOPEZ DA, 1977, MANAGE SCI, V23, P1149 MEMMOTT FW, 1963, TRAFFIC ENG, V33, P20 MOKHTARIAN P, 1994, IN PRESS ENV PLANN A MOKHTARIAN PL, 1991, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1305, P273 MOKHTARIAN PL, 1991, TRANSPORTATION, V18, P319 NILLES JM, 1975, LOGISTICS TRANSPORTA, V11, P185 NILLES JM, 1988, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V22, P301 NILLES JM, 1991, TRANSPORTATION, V18, P411 OBERMANN R, 1978, IMPACT TELECOMMUNICA PENDYALA RM, 1991, TRANSPORTATION, V18, P383 QUAID M, 1992, PUGET SOUND TELECOMM RUMMEL RJ, 1970, APPLIED FACTOR ANAL NR 18 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 45 IS 3 BP 275 EP 286 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN983 UT ISI:A1994NN98300004 ER PT J AU FRANSES, PH TI GOMPERTZ CURVES WITH SEASONALITY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper considers an extension of the usual Gompertz curve by allowing the parameters to vary over the seasons. This means that, for example, saturation levels can be different over the year. An estimation and testing method is proposed and illustrated with an example. RP FRANSES, PH, ERASMUS UNIV ROTTERDAM,INST ECONOMETR,POB 1738,3000 DR ROTTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. CR FRANSES PH, 1991, IN PRESS J OPERATION GRANGER CWJ, 1980, FORECASTING BUSINESS MEADE N, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P429 NR 3 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1994 VL 45 IS 3 BP 287 EP 297 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN983 UT ISI:A1994NN98300005 ER PT J AU GIFFORD, JL TI ADAPTABILITY AND FLEXIBILITY IN URBAN-TRANSPORTATION POLICY AND PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INVESTMENT DECISIONS; UNCERTAINTY; IRREVERSIBILITY; EXPANSION AB The poor representation of uncertainty in the urban transportation planning process can lead to excessively large and permanent facilities. Such inflexible facilities and systems may condition and severely constrain options available to future generations for organizing the production, consumption, and distribution of goods and services. The relationship between facility size and permanence and flexibility has received too little recognition in practice and too little attention in research. This paper calls for increased research to provide policy makers and practitioners with a greater understanding of the consequences of the present approach and the advantages and disadvantages of more flexible approaches. C1 GEORGE MASON UNIV,INST PUBL POLICY,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. RP GIFFORD, JL, GEORGE MASON UNIV,DEPT PUBL INT AFFAIRS,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. CR *US DEP TRANSP, 1988, URB TRANSP PLANN US ARROW KJ, 1974, Q J ECON, V88, P312 BUECHLER J, 1975, 172 TEX TRANSP I TEX CHANG D, 1988, THESIS TEXAS A M U DEGROVE JM, 1975, NEW JERSEY BELL J, V10 DEGROVE JM, 1986, CREATIVE TENSIONS ST DEGROVE JM, 1989, UNDERSTANDING GROWTH ENZER S, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P201 FOSTER RE, 1976, FHWARD7856 REP GORDON P, 1991, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V57, P416 HAYNES KE, 1984, SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNI, V18, P195 HAYNES KE, 1989, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V23, P299 HENRY C, 1974, AM ECON REV, V64, P1006 KONVITZ JW, 1985, URBAN MILLENNIUM CIT KONVITZ JW, 1989, PUBLIC WORKS HIST, P1 MAJD S, 1987, J FINANC ECON, V18, P7 MANHEIM ML, 1969, HIGHWAY RES REC, P293 MANHEIM ML, 1977, 66TH ANN M TRANSP RE MANHEIM ML, 1979, FUNDAMENTALS TRANSPO, V1 MCDONALD R, 1986, Q J ECON, V101, P707 MEYER M, 1984, URBAN TRANSPORTATION MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE PEARMAN AD, 1977, 3RD P WORLD C TRANSP, P431 PISARSKI A, 1987, COMMUTING AM STOVER VG, 1980, 187 TRANSP RES BOARD TURNER RS, 1990, J URBAN AFF, V12, P35 VISSER EJ, 1977, 3RD P WORLD C TRANSP WEISBROD B, 1964, Q J ECON, V78, P471 NR 28 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 45 IS 2 BP 111 EP 117 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN982 UT ISI:A1994NN98200001 ER PT J AU JARMAN, A KOUZMPIN, A TI DISASTER MANAGEMENT AS CONTINGENT META-POLICY ANALYSIS - WATER-RESOURCE PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CRISIS MANAGEMENT; CHALLENGER AB Australia, an island continent the size of the U.S., often experiences floods, cyclones, droughts, earthquakes, and man-made disasters. As a federal system of government, there are many instances of institutional conflict involving water resource-related crisis management situations. This paper outlines a contingency-based policy making schema which seeks to define, and solve heuristically, various forms of conflict usually involving all three spheres of government (federal, state, and local). The contingency model is uniquely applied to the context of disaster management and so allows ''meta-policy'' strategies to be developed by governmental decision makers. In addition, the design of possible disaster management ''expert systems''is only now being recognized in Australia but constitutes an emerging element of global policy advice and planning capabilities. C1 UNIV WESTERN SYDNEY, FAC COMMERCE, HAWKESBURY RD, WESTMEAD, NSW 2145, AUSTRALIA. UNIV CANBERRA, FAC MANAGEMENT, DEPT ADM STUDIES, BELCONNEN, ACT 2616, AUSTRALIA. CR *AUSTR DEP RES EN, 1983, WAT 2000 PERSP AUSTR *COMM AUSTR, 1978, COMM ROL ASS PLANN D *COMM AUSTR, 1989, PERS GUID EARTH, P3 BARTON AH, 1969, COMMUNITIES DISASTER BREWER GD, 1983, F POLICY ANAL BRYANT E, 1991, AUSTR PLANNER, V29, P24 BURBY RJ, 1988, MONOGRAPH, V47 CAMERON KS, 1987, ACAD MANAGE J, V30, P126 CANNEGIETER CA, 1964, ECON REC, V40, P375 COHEN MD, 1972, ADM SCI Q, V17, P1 COMFORT LK, 1989, COPING CRISES MANAGE, P323 DORFMAN R, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P67 DROR Y, 1968, PUBLIC POLICY MAKING ECKEL K, 1989, SATELLITE COMMUNICAT ECKSTEIN O, 1958, WATER RESOURCE DEV EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P21 FREIDMAN LS, 1991, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V10, P343 GREEN CC, 1973, WATER CYCLE CONCEPTS HADDEN SG, 1989, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V8, P203 HALL P, 1982, GREAT PLANNING DISAS HANDMER JW, 1991, NEGOTIATING CONFLICT, P3 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JARMAN AMG, 1983, INT J CONT CRISES LA, V14, P399 JARMAN AMG, 1991, CRISIS MANAGEMENT DE, P123 JARMAN AMG, 1991, NATIONAL C P, V2, P523 JARMAN AMG, 1992, NATURAL DISASTERS SP JARMAN AMG, 1993, DEV ASIA PACIFIC PUB JARMAN AMG, 1994, INT REV ADM SCI, V60 KAHRL WL, 1982, WATER POWER CONFLICT KANNEGEITER T, 1992, CIVIL ENG AUSTR 1002, P20 KIM TJ, 1990, EXPERT SYSTEMS APPLI KOUZMIN A, 1989, COPING CRISIS MANAGE, P397 KOUZMIN A, 1990, 12TH WORLD C SOC MAD, P1 KOUZMIN A, 1990, ASIAN REV PUBLIC ADM, V2, P88 KOUZMIN A, 1990, DYNAMICS AUSTR PUBLI LAMBLEY DB, 1990, AUST J PUBL ADMIN, V49, P431 LAPORTE TR, 1991, J PUBL ADM RES THEOR, V1, P19 LINDBLOM CE, 1959, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V19, P79 MAY PJ, 1991, J PUBLIC POLICY, V11, P187 MCPHEE J, 1989, CONTROL NATURE MITROFF II, 1988, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V29, P15 MUSGRAVE WF, 1965, ECON REC, V40, P262 MYERS N, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P477 ORTOLANO L, 1990, EXPERT SYSTEMS APPL, P3 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PLOWDEN W, 1987, ADVISING RULERS POLLITT C, 1990, J SOC POLICY, V19, P169 QUADE ES, 1985, ANAL PUBLIC DECISION REPETTO R, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO ROMZEK BS, 1987, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V47, P227 ROSENTHAL U, 1989, COPING CRISES MANAGE, P3 ROSENTHAL U, 1989, COPING CRISIS MANAGE ROSENTHAL U, 1991, CRISIS MANAGEMENT DE, P1 ROSENTHAL U, 1991, PUBLIC ADMIN, V69, P211 RUVIN H, 1991, AM CITY COUNTY MAY, P56 SCHUTZER D, 1987, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGE SCOTT P, 1992, HERD WHITE ELEPHANTS SHANGRAW RF, 1989, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V49, P153 SIMON HA, 1957, ADM BEHAVIOR SMITH DI, 1989, NEW SCI 1111, P24 STARBUCK WH, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P319 STARR JR, 1991, FOREIGN POLICY, P17 STAW BM, 1989, SCIENCE, V246, P216 THART P, 1993, ADMIN SOC, V25, P12 THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TITUS JG, 1990, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V56, P311 TOSI HL, 1984, J MANAGE, V10, P9 VENKATRAMAN N, 1990, J MANAGE STUD, V27, P19 WALTON RE, 1972, INTERORGANIZATIONAL, P94 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR WILDAVSKY A, 1984, POLITICS BUDGETARY P WILLNER RA, 1984, SPELL BINDERS CHARIS ZEHNE RR, 1991, AUSTR PLANNER, V29, P33 NR 73 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 45 IS 2 BP 119 EP 130 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN982 UT ISI:A1994NN98200002 ER PT J AU NUTT, PC BACKOFF, RW TI TRANSFORMING PUBLIC AND 3RD-SECTOR ORGANIZATIONS FACING DIFFICULT TIMES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MANAGEMENT AB This paper offers principles that provide a way to transform public and third sector organizations using strategic management. We summarize the theory and process of strategic management and offer our view of its future. Strategic principles are derived from the unique needs posed by the public and third sector, from the way change should be made in and for this type of organization, and from the demands for transformation that we believe will redirect and channel the energies of strategic leaders in the future. RP NUTT, PC, OHIO STATE UNIV,COLL BUSINESS,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,315B HAGERTY HALL,1775 COLL RD,COLUMBUS,OH 43210. CR ACKOFF RL, 1981, CREATING CORPORATE F ALLISON GT, 1984, NEW DIRECTIONS PUBLI ANSOFF HI, 1980, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V1, P131 ANSOFF HI, 1985, IMPLANTING STRATEGIC ANSOFF HI, 1988, NEW CORPORATE STRATE ANTHONY WP, 1993, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT E, V7, P43 BACKOFF RW, 1988, STRATEGIC PLANNING BENNIS W, 1985, LEADERS BENNIS W, 1989, WHY LEADERS CANT LEA BERGER PL, 1966, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION BOSEMAN B, 1987, ALL ORG ARE PUBLIC BOULDING KE, 1956, IMAGE BRYSON JM, 1988, STRATEGIC PLANNING P CAMERON KS, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P539 CHRISTINSEN CR, 1983, BUSINESS POLICY TEXT DELBECQ AL, 1989, SUSTAINING INNOVATIO ELSAWY OA, 1985, EXPLORING TEMPORAL P EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P21 FREEMAN RE, 1984, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT HOWE E, 1979, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V45, P242 KINGDON JW, 1984, AGENDAS ALTERNATIVES LEVINE CH, 1976, PUBLIC ADM REV JUL, P425 MASON RO, 1981, CHALLENGING STRATEGI MCCASKEY E, 1988, EXECUTIVE CHALLENGE MILES RE, 1978, ORG STRATEGY STRUCTU MINTZBERG H, 1987, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P65 NEUSTADT RE, 1989, AM RESIDENTS CORPORA NUTT P, 1982, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT R, V7, P442 NUTT PC, 1991, AUG AC MAN NAT C MIA NUTT PC, 1992, MANAGING PLANNED CHA NUTT PC, 1992, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT NUTT PC, 1993, IN PRESS JPART NUTT PC, 1993, J MANAGEMENT INQUIRY, V2, P28 PASCALE TT, 1990, MANAGING EDGE PERRY JL, 1988, ACAD MANAGE REV, V13, P182 PETERS TJ, 1982, SEARCH EXCELLENCE PETTIGREW AM, 1985, J MANAGE STUD, V11, P31 PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG QUINN RA, 1990, BECOMING MASTER MANA QUINN RE, 1988, RATIONAL MANAGEMENT RAINEY HG, 1989, J MANAGE, V15, P229 RING P, 1987, STRATEGIC PLANNING ROTHENBURG A, 1979, EMERGING GODDESS RUBIN MS, 1988, STRATEGIC PLANNING, P84 SELZNICK P, 1949, TVA GRASS ROOTS SHORTELL S, 1988, STRATEGIC CHOICE AM VAILL PB, 1989, MANAGING PERFORMING WECHSLER B, 1986, PUBLIC ADM REV JUL, P321 WEICK KE, 1979, SOCIAL PSYCHOL ORG WOODMAN RW, 1993, ACAD MANAGE REV, V18, P293 NR 50 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 45 IS 2 BP 131 EP 150 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN982 UT ISI:A1994NN98200003 ER PT J AU SHARIF, N TI INTEGRATING BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION AB In the present era of deregulation, privatization and increasing global market competition, most industrialists in developing countries have come to the realization that better technology is needed for the survival of both public and private sector enterprises. Therefore, they acknowledge that technological considerations must be properly incorporated into overall business strategies. However, in the absence of an established theory and due to lack of relevant data, they face enormous difficulties. This paper describes a simple framework for integrating business and technology strategies, particularly in the context of developing countries. Possible strategic mixes are identified by considering four commonly practiced business strategies, namely: price, value, niche and image leadership; and four evolving technology strategies, namely: technology leader, follower, exploiter and extender. Necessary considerations for technological capability development and technology strategy progression path are also discussed for different enterprise situations and development conditions. RP SHARIF, N, ASIAN INST TECHNOL,SCH MANAGEMENT,GPO BOX 2754,BANGKOK 10501,THAILAND. CR *INT ENV BUR, 1992, ID ACT BUS SUST DEV *MIT, 1989, MAD AM REG PROD EDG BOLWIJN PT, 1990, LONG RANGE PLANN, V23, P44 CHOI HS, 1989, SPRINGBOARD MEASURES CLARK KB, 1989, HARVARD BUS REV, V67, P94 ENOS L, 1990, CREATION TECHNOLOGIC GHEMAWAT P, 1991, COMMITMENT DYNAMIC S HABIBIE BJ, 1990, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V5, P489 KLEINDORFER PR, 1990, EUR J OPER RES, V47, P214 NAISBITT J, 1990, MEGATRENDS 2000 PAVITT K, 1990, CALIF MANAGE REV, V32, P17 PETERS T, 1989, THRIVING CHAOS HDB M PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PORTER ME, 1991, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V12, P95 PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V68, P71 ROSENBLOOM RS, 1989, RES TECHNOLOGICAL IN SANKAR Y, 1991, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG SCHROEDER DM, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V11, P25 SHAPIRO C, 1989, RAND J ECON, V20, P125 SHARIF MN, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P217 SHARIF MN, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P201 SHARIF MN, 1991, ENV STRATEGY EUROPE SHARIF N, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V42, P367 NR 25 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 45 IS 2 BP 151 EP 167 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN982 UT ISI:A1994NN98200004 ER PT J AU COLLINGRIDGE, D GENUS, A JAMES, P TI INFLEXIBILITY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH-SEA-OIL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Collingridge has predicted that technologies with high capital intensity, large unit size, long lead time, and high infrastructural requirements will be inflexible, difficult to develop, and prone to very serious error. Early North Sea oil fields exhibited all these characteristics and were subject to major development delays and cost overruns. Developers were protected from the adverse consequences of these by the fact that the peak output of most early fields coincided with the very high oil prices of the late 1970s and early 1980s. This was not, and could not have been, forecast at the time of development and was therefore fortuitous. Net present value calculations demonstrate that many fields would have produced suboptimal returns if the scenarios considered likely at the time of development had materialized. Collingridge and James have also argued that inflexible technologies are associated with centralized decision making, concentrated expertise, and a strong supraorganizational sense of mission and that their interaction creates a systemic bias against smaller-scale, more modular technical alternatives. This too has been true of North Sea development, which was historically dominated by a few large multinational oil companies. The independents, who are associated with more flexible technical solutions, have had until recently only a marginal role. The authors conclude that a more sophisticated understanding of physical and organizational inflexibility is essential for good policy design and has implications for the general debate about the relative efficacy of governments and markets in the area of technology. C1 BRUNEL UNIV,CTR BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT STUDIES,UXBRIDGE UB8 3PH,MIDDX,ENGLAND. UNIV ASTON,TECHNOL POLICY UNIT,BIRMINGHAM B4 7ET,W MIDLANDS,ENGLAND. ASHRIDGE MANAGEMENT COLL,BERKHAMSTED,ENGLAND. CR *COMM PUBL ACC, 1973, 1ST REP *EN COMM, 1989, 1ST REP *EN RES ADV BOARD, 1987, GEOSC RES EN SEC *NAT RES COUNC, 1985, DISP OFFSH PLATE *SEL COMM EUR COM, 9TH REP *UK MON MERG COMM, 1983, COMM 8920 *UK PRIM MIN OFF, 1978, COMM7143 *US DEP EN, 1976, 7 EN PAP ALLSOPP C, 1989, MARKET ENERGY BALOGH LORD, 1974, BANKER MAR, P281 BELGRAVE R, 1982, OIL SUPPLY PRICE FUT BERNARD M, 1989, ENERG POLICY, V17, P54 BLAND D, 1988, UK OIL TAXATION CARSON W, 1981, OTHER PRICE BRITAINS, P128 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1984, ENERGY POLICY JUN, P189 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1984, ENERGY POLICY MAR, P46 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1989, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V1, P79 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1991, LONG RANGE PLANN APR, P34 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1992, MANAGEMENT SCALE COLLINGRIDGE D, 1993, CRITICAL DECISION MA CORTI G, 1983, NATIONS OIL DAFTER R, 1980, N SEA OIL BRIT FOREI DAVIS J, 1981, HIGH COST OIL GAS RE DONOGHUE A, 1986, 1ST COURSE PETROLEUM FORSYTH P, 1989, MARKET ENERGY GRAYSON L, 1981, NATIONAL OIL CO HAMILTON A, 1978, N SEA IMPACT HANN D, 1986, ENERGY POLICY JUN, P253 HEARNE G, 1990, PETROLEUM REV JUN JENKIN M, 1981, BRIT IND N SEA JONES G, 1981, STATE EMERGENCE BRIT KEMP A, 1990, ENERGY POLICY SEP, P599 LIVERMORE J, 1982, PUBLIC ADM WIN LOVEGROVE M, 1981, LOVEGROVES GUIDE BRI MACKAY D, 1975, POLITICAL EC N SEA O MACKAY G, 1984, ENERGY POLICY LAND U MANNERS G, 1981, COAL BRITAIN MORONE J, 1986, AVOIDING DISASTER NORENG O, 1980, OIL IND GOVT STRATEG ODELL P, 1980, FUTURE OIL ODELL P, 1983, OIL WORLD POWER ODELL P, 1988, ENERGY POLICY OCT, P480 PASCALE R, 1990, MANAGING EDGE REED G, 1981, 1162 I GAS ENG REP ROBINSON C, 1990, MAR 25 YEARS N SEA C ROBINSON G, 1986, OFFSHORE OIL PRODUCT SAMPSON A, 1988, 7 SISTERS STERN J, 1990, EUROPEAN GAS MARKETS TRIMBLE N, 1976, 10 U AB DEP POL EC N WILDAVSKY A, 1981, POLITICS MISTRUST WOODHOUSE E, 1989, DEMISE NUCLEAR POWER NR 51 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 45 IS 2 BP 169 EP 188 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN982 UT ISI:A1994NN98200005 ER PT J AU KOSTOFF, RN TI QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE FEDERAL RESEARCH IMPACT EVALUATION PRACTICES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper describes the quantitative and qualitative practice of federal research impact evaluation. Evaluation of research impact is described for three cases: Research selection, where the work has not yet been performed; research review, where work and results are ongoing; and ex-post research assessment, where research has been completed and results can be tracked. Qualitative methods (such as peer review) and quantitative methods (such as cost-benefit analysis and bibliometrics) are described. Although peer review in its broadest sense is the most widely used method in research selection, review, and ex-post assessment, it has its deficiencies, and there is no single method that provides a complete impact evaluation. RP KOSTOFF, RN, OFF NAVAL RES, ARLINGTON, VA 22217 USA. CR *NAT I STAND TECHN, 1991, 1990 ANN REP *NAT I STAND TECHN, 1991, ASS NAT I STAND TECH *NAT SCI F, 1989, NAT SCI BOARD 891 RE *US DEP DEF, 1987, REP MER REV PROC COM *US DEP EN, 1982, ER0123 REP *US DEP EN, 1988, MUL LAB APPR *US DEP EN, 1991, PROC PEER REV ASS *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1986, RES FUND INV CAN WE *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1991, FED FUND RES DEC DEC ANERCH H, 1991, RES EVALUAT, V1, P2 AVERCH H, 1990, OTA CONTRACTOR REPOR CARPENTER MP, 1980, RES MANAGEMENT, V13 CAWKELL AE, 1977, ESSAYS INFORMATION S, V2 CHUBIN DE, 1985, SPECIAL ISSUE PEER R, V10 CHUBIN DE, 1990, PEERLESS SCI PEER RE CICCHETTI DV, 1991, BEHAVIORAL BRAIN SCI, V14 COLE J, 1981, PB82182130 COLE S, 1978, PB83192161 COLE S, 1981, SCIENCE, V214 COZZENS SE, 1987, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V14 FRAZIER SP, 1987, GAORCED8787FS GEN AC GRILICHES Z, 1958, J POLITICAL EC, V66 HALL D, 1990, IEEE T ENG MANAGEMEN, V37 HENSLER DR, 1976, PB271775 IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI PICKIN JOHNSTON R, 1990, OTA CONTRACTOR REPOR KERPELMAN LC, 1985, METHODS STRATEGIC EV KING J, 1987, J INFORMATION SCI, V13 KOSTOFF RN, 1983, J FUSION ENERGY, V3 KOSTOFF RN, 1988, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V35, P271 KOSTOFF RN, 1991, FEDERALLY FUNDED RES KOSTOFF RN, 1991, RES EVALUATION, V1 KOSTOFF RN, 1992, 3RD INT C MAN TECHN KOSTOFF RN, 1992, ASSESSING R D IMPACT KOSTOFF RN, 1992, UNPUB KOSTOFF RN, 1993, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA LINSTONE HA, 1989, SYSTEMS PRACTICE, V2 LOGSDON JM, 1985, OVERVIEW FEDERAL RES LUUKKONENGRONOW T, 1987, R D MANAGEMENT, V17 MACROBERTS MH, 1989, J AM SOC INFORMATION, V40 MANSFIELD E, 1991, RES POLICY, V20 MARTIN BR, 1990, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V17 MILLER R, 1992, R D MANAGEMENT, V22 NARIN F, 1976, PB252339AS NARIN F, 1987, RES POLICY, V16 NARIN F, 1987, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V14 NARIN F, 1989, EVALUATION SCI RES NARIN F, 1990, OCT S EV SCI TECHN P NICHOLSON RS, 1987, PB88163571 OBERSKI K, 1988, HDB QUANTITATIVE STU ORMALA E, 1989, RES POLICY, V18 PAVITT K, 1991, RES POLICY, V20 SALASIN J, 1980, MTR80W123 TECHN REP WHITE HD, 1989, ANN REV INFORMATION, V24 WIRT JG, R1156HEW RAND REP NR 55 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1994 VL 45 IS 2 BP 189 EP 205 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA NN982 UT ISI:A1994NN98200006 ER PT J AU SUAREZVILLA, L HASNATH, SA TI THE EFFECT OF INFRASTRUCTURE ON INVENTION - INNOVATIVE CAPACITY AND THE DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID KOREAS ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY; UNITED-STATES; TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATIONS; LONG WAVES; PATENTS; PRODUCTIVITY; EXPENDITURE; INFORMATION; INDICATORS; ADVANTAGE AB The association between public infrastructural investment and invention is explored in this study, analyzing expenditure and patenting trends and cycles over much of the 20th century. First, innovative capacity, an endogenous indicator of US innovation potential based on invention patent output, is conceptualized and discussed. A major shift in invention modes is shown to have occurred over seven decades (1920-89) as corporate, rather than individual, invention became the most important national source of innovative capacity. The support of public infrastructure for invention is then analyzed, considering its most important characteristiscs and supportive functions, and its expenditure patterns over seven decades. The analysis of the infrastructural investment and the innovative capacity age cycle dynamics reveals a remarkable association between educational infrastructure construction and both aggregate and corporate innovative capacity. Time-series statistical analyses provide further insights on the effects of infrastructural investment on invention, showing that corporate patenting tends to benefit more from public infrastructural construction and that educational infrastructure expenditures provide a stronger association with both aggregate and corporate inventive performance. C1 BOSTON UNIV,DEPT GEOG,BOSTON,MA 02215. RP SUAREZVILLA, L, UNIV CALIF IRVINE,SCH SOCIAL ECOL,IRVINE,CA 92717. CR *AM PUBL WORKS ASS, 1976, 1776 1976 HIST PUBL *NAT COUNC PUBL WO, 1988, FRAG F REP AM PUBL W *US BUR CENS, STAT ABSTR US *US BUR CENS, 1975, HIST STAT US *US BUR CENS, 1981, CONSTR REP VAL NEW C *US DEP COMM, CONSTR REV *US PAT TRAD OFF, ANN REP ACS ZJ, 1989, KYKLOS, V42, P171 ADAMS JD, 1990, J POLIT ECON, V98, P673 ALLISON PD, 1982, AM SOCIOL REV, V47, P615 ANDERSSON AE, 1986, PAP REG SCI ASSOC, V59, P1 ANDERSSON AE, 1988, TRANSPORTATION, V14, P281 ASCHAUER DA, 1990, IS THERE SHORTFALL P AYRES RU, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V33, P189 AYRES RU, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P1 AYRES RU, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P111 BARTEL AP, 1987, REV ECON STAT, V69, P1 BASBERG BL, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P131 BAUMOL WJ, 1989, PRODUCTIVITY AM LEAD BEGGS JJ, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI BERNSTEIN MA, 1987, GREAT DEPRESSION DEL BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BOUND J, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI BRETT A, 1991, U SPIN OFF CO EC DEV BURNS LS, 1982, J REAL ESTATE URBAN, V10, P123 CHANDLER AD, 1962, STRATEGY STRUCTURE C CHANDLER AD, 1990, SCALE SCOPE DYNAMICS CHATTERJEE L, 1991, ECON GEOGR, V67, P42 COCKBURN I, 1987, NBER2465 NAT BUR EC COMANOR WS, 1969, J POLITICAL EC, V77, P329 CORNISH WR, 1981, INTELLECTUAL PROPERT DAVELAAR EJ, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P181 DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN DERIAN JC, 1990, AM STRUGGLE LEADERSH DERTOUZOS ML, 1989, MADE AM REGAINING PR DONALDSON G, 1986, DECISION MAKING TOP DORF RC, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P251 DOSI G, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P1120 EBERTS RW, 1990, 9004 FED RES BANK CL ELHANCE AP, 1988, REG SCI URBAN ECON, V18, P511 FISCHER MM, 1991, 31ST EUR C REG SCI A GANDER JP, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V29, P33 GRAVES SB, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P13 GRILICHES Z, 1990, J ECON LIT, V28, P1661 GRILLICHES Z, 1987, EC POLICY TECHNOLOGI HAKANSSON H, 1989, CORPORATE TECHNOLOGI HANSON R, 1984, PERSPECTIVES URBAN I HARRE R, 1988, GREAT SCI EXPT 20 EX HASNATH SA, 1990, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V24, P133 HAYNES KE, 1988, PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTUR HORSTMANN I, 1985, J POLIT ECON, V93, P837 HOUNSHELL DA, 1988, SCI CORPORATE STRATE HULL DL, 1988, SCI PROCESS EVOLUTIO JEWKES J, 1961, SOURCES INVENTION JOHANSSON B, 1991, 38TH N AM M REG SCI JORGENSON D, 1988, PRODUCTIVITY US EC G KLEINKNECHT A, 1987, INNOVATION PATTERNS KUHN TS, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LAKSHMANAN TR, 1989, ADV SPATIAL THEORY D LEE TH, 1991, PROSPERING GLOBAL EC LEVIN RC, 1984, SURVEY RES R D APPRO LONG JS, 1981, AM SOCIOL REV, V46, P422 MACHLUP F, 1980, KNOWLEDGE ITS CREATI MALECKI EJ, 1991, TECHNOLOGY EC DEV MANSFIELD E, 1971, RES INNOVATION MODER MANSFIELD E, 1977, PRODUCTION APPLICATI MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARCHETTI C, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P373 MARSCHAK TA, 1967, STRATEGY R D MENSCH G, 1970, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY MOWERY D, 1989, TECHNOLOGY PURSUIT E MUNNELL AH, 1990, IS THERE SHORTFALL P NAKICENOVIC N, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V39, P181 NARIN F, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P143 PAKES A, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI POPPER KR, 1981, SCI REVOLUTIONS ROACH SS, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P387 ROGERS EM, 1971, COMMUNICATION INNOVA ROSENBERG N, 1987, W GREW RICH EC TRANS SAMSON KJ, 1990, SCI ENTREPRENEURS OR SCHERER FM, 1983, INT J IND ORGAN, V1, P221 SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SNICKARS F, 1987, TRANSPORTATION PLANN SUAREZVILLA L, 1990, BEHAV SCI, V35, P290 SUAREZVILLA L, 1990, ECON GEOGR, V66, P273 SUAREZVILLA L, 1991, REG STUD, V25, P327 SUAREZVILLA L, 1992, SURVEY REGIONAL LIT, V20, P32 SUAREZVILLA L, 1993, GEOGR ANAL, V25, P147 TARR JA, 1984, PERSPECTIVES URBAN I VICKERMAN RW, 1989, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V23, P275 VICKERS J, 1985, INT J IND ORGAN, V3, P261 VONHIPPEL EA, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION WATERSON M, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P860 WENK E, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P171 WOZNIAK GD, 1987, J HUM RESOUR, V22, P101 WYATT G, 1986, EC INVENTIONS YOUNGSON AJ, 1967, OVERHEAD CAPITAL NR 97 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 44 IS 4 BP 333 EP 358 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MH593 UT ISI:A1993MH59300001 ER PT J AU ALIC, JA TI COMPUTER-ASSISTED EVERYTHING - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR DESIGN AND PRODUCTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article discusses applications of computer-assisted technologies in both product design/development and manufacturing. The intent is to explore the capabilities - and limits - of computer-automated engineering and manufacturing, and examine the impacts on international competitiveness. The conclusions in brief: 1. Computer-assisted everything, or CAX, will prove to be a receding goal for the foreseeable future. Many technical limitations, typically associated with computational complexity, must still be overcome; as one set of problems is solved, others will appear. No end is yet in sight. 2. Although the United States has led for many years in the development of CAX technologies, American firms have not been able to use the resulting capabilities to establish substantial competitive advantages. There are two primary reasons. On the product side, computer-aided engineering remains mostly a matter of analysis (that is, solving complicated mathematical problems) rather than conceptualization and design, while it is design decisions that largely determine both product performance and manufacturing costs. Second, effective application of CAX in manufacturing requires effective integration of people and machines; US capabilities in computer applications do not extend to making the best use of people's skills and abilities on the factory floor. C1 HARVARD UNIV,JOHN F KENNEDY SCH GOVT,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP ALIC, JA, OFF TECHNOL ASSESSMENT,WASHINGTON,DC 20510. CR 1991, IMPROVING ENG DESIGN *US BUR CENS, 1989, 1988 CURR IND REP *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1990, US MAN PROBL OPP DEF *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1990, WORK TRAIN COMP NEW, CH4 ADLER PS, 1990, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V5, P201 ALIC JA, 1990, TECHNOL SOC, V12, P301 ALIC JA, 1991, TECHNOL ANAL STRATEG, V3, P177 ALIC JA, 1992, SPINOFF MILITARY COM ASHLEY H, 1982, J AIRCRAFT, V19, P5 AYRES RU, 1988, MANUFACTURING REV, V1, P26 BANARESALCANTAR.R, 1988, EXPERT SYSTEMS ENG D, P53 BEBB HB, 1989, JUN NSF ENG DES RES BERKE L, 1987, COMPUTER AIDED OPTIM, P271 BOOKER PJ, 1963, HIST ENG DRAWING, P185 BUTLER TG, 1971, NASA SP260 CHARLES DPS, 1988, 3RD INT C CAD CAM RO COHEN PH, 1991, 1991 P NSF DES MAN S, P405 DANIELL JD, 1988, EXPERT SYSTEMS ENG D, P221 DORNHEIM MA, 1991, AVIATION WEEK S 0603, P50 FRIEDMAN D, 1989, AUTOFACT 89 C P JAIKUMAR R, 1989, JPN WORLD ECON, V1, P113 JAMESON A, 1989, SCIENCE, V245, P361 KELLEY MR, 1988, STATE COMPUTERIZED A MANSFIELD E, 1989, MANAGERIAL DECIS SPR, P3 MANSFIELD E, 1989, RES POLICY, V18, P183 NEWSOM SL, 1991, 1991 P NSF DES MAN S, P1123 REQUICHA AAG, 1982, IEEE COMPUTER G 0302, P9 SHIMADA H, 1989, JAP INV US SHOULD WE, P183 SOARES CAM, 1987, COMPUTER AIDED OPTIM, P197 VOELCKER HB, 1988, DESIGN ANAL INTEGRAT, P167 WHITNEY DE, 1989, JUN NSF ENG DES RES, P581 WILSON B, 1983, EFFICIENCY MANUFACTU WRIGHT PK, 1988, MANUFACTURING INTELL YOSHIKAWA H, 1981, COMPUTER AIDED MANUF ZRAKET CA, 1992, SPINOFF MILITARY COM, P283 NR 35 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 44 IS 4 BP 359 EP 374 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MH593 UT ISI:A1993MH59300002 ER PT J AU YOUNG, P TI TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH-CURVES - A COMPETITION OF FORECASTING MODELS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION DIFFUSION-MODELS; TIME-SERIES; CONSUMER DURABLES; PRODUCT GROWTH; SUBSTITUTION; POPULATION AB In order to determine procedures for appropriate model selection of technological growth curves, numerous time series that were representative of growth behavior were collected and categorized according to data characteristics. Nine different growth curve models were each fitted onto the various data sets in an attempt to determine which growth curve models achieved the best forecasts for differing types of growth data. The analysis of the results gives rise to a new approach for selecting appropriate growth curve models for a given set of data, prior to fitting the models, based on the characteristics of the data sets. RP YOUNG, P, DEPT VETERANS AFFAIRS,OFF INSPECTOR GEN,54B1,810 VERMONT AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20420. CR AKINOLA AA, 1986, J AGR ECON, V30, P395 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BAYUS BL, 1989, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V6, P5 BEWLEY R, 1988, INT J FORECASTING, V4, P177 BLACKMAN AW, 1971, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V2, P269 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BODGER PS, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P27 BOX GEP, 1964, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V26, P211 BRETSCHNEIDER S, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P111 BRETSCHNEIDER SI, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P129 BUNDGAARDNIELSE.M, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P365 CHADDHA RL, 1971, BELL J ECON, V2, P542 EASINGWOOD C, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 EASINGWOOD CJ, 1988, R&D MANAGE, V18, P23 FILDES R, 1979, TIMS STUDIES MANAGEM, V12 FILDES R, 1983, J FORECASTING, V2, P137 FILDES R, 1984, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V12, P427 FISHELSON G, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V26, P299 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOL FORECASTING, V3, P5 GALE W, 1985, AI MAG, V5, P72 GARDNER ES, 1985, MANAGE SCI, V31, P1237 GARDNER ES, 1989, LOTUS JUN, P58 GORE AP, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P163 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 HARVEY AC, 1984, J OPER RES SOC, V35, P641 HEELER RM, 1980, MANAGE SCI, V26, P1007 HENDRY I, 1972, LONG RANGE PLANN, V5, P40 HORSKY D, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P1 HSIEH CT, 1990, J COMPUTER INFOR WIN, P76 KENDALL MG, 1983, ADV THEORY STATISTIC, V3 LAKHANI H, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI LANCASTER GA, 1983, EUR J MARKETING, V17, P70 LEE JC, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P61 LENZ RC, 1972, BUS HORIZONS, V15, P63 LEVENBACH H, 1976, TECHNOMETRICS, V18, P261 MAHAJAN V, 1977, SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNI, V11, P259 MAHAJAN V, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1589 MAHAJAN V, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15, P27 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MAHAJAN V, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P331 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1984, FORECASTING ACCURACY MAKRIDAKIS S, 1988, INT J FORECASTING, V4, P467 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARMOLINERO C, 1980, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V31, P141 MARTINO J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P465 MARTINO J, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEADE N, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P429 MEADE N, 1985, J OPER RES SOC, V36, P1103 MEADE N, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P389 MIDGLEY DF, 1981, NEW PRODUCT FORECAST OLSON JA, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P241 ORD JK, ISF 89 VANCOUVER POZNANSKI KZ, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P305 RAO SK, 1985, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V4, P232 ROBERTSON TS, 1971, INNOVATIVE BEHAVIOR SAHAL D, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P53 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SCHMITTLEIN D, 1982, MARKET SCI, V1, P57 SCHNAARS SP, 1986, INTERFACES, V16, P100 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P247 SHARIF MN, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 SKIADAS CH, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P313 SKIADAS CH, 1987, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V34, P79 SPEECE M, ISF 89 VANCOUVER SRINIVASAN V, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P169 STAPLETON E, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P325 TANNY SM, 1988, J FORECASTING, V7, P225 TIGERT D, 1981, J MARKETING, V45, P81 TINGYAN X, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V38, P175 TRAJTENBERG M, 1989, J BUS ECON STAT, V7, P35 WEITZ RR, 1986, INT J FORECASTING, V2, P273 WIORKOWSKI JJ, 1988, J FORECASTING, V7, P259 YOUNG P, 1985, 853 PENNS STAT U DEP YOUNG P, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P263 YOUNG P, 1986, THESIS PENN STATE U YOUNG P, 1990, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P501 NR 79 TC 17 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 44 IS 4 BP 375 EP 389 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MH593 UT ISI:A1993MH59300003 ER PT J AU SKIADAS, CH PAPAYANNAKIS, LL MOURELATOS, AG TI AN ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE THE FORECASTING ABILITY OF GROWTH FUNCTIONS - THE GREEK ELECTRIC SYSTEM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID POTENTIAL ADOPTER POPULATION; INNOVATION DIFFUSION-MODELS AB The use of growth functions to forecast the parameters of large-scale systems is discussed, and the application of realted growth models to the Greek electric energy system is undertaken. The possibility of correlating the saturation level of the Greek electricity demand to some socioeconomic variables such as the gross domestic product, investments, and relative electric price is examined. Using these correlations, the forecasting ability of the logistic function is found to be improved, and the results of the modified logistic function are compared to those of some other well-known growth functions. C1 NATL TECH UNIV ATHENS,DEPT CHEM ENGN,9 HEROON POLYTECHNIOU STR,GR-15780 ATHENS,GREECE. TECH UNIV CRETE,DEPT PROD ENGN & MANAGEMENT,KHANIA,GREECE. CR DEBECKER A, UNPUB INT J FORECAST DONATOS GS, 1991, ENERG ECON, P41 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 GARDENFORS P, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P63 LEACH D, 1981, J R STATIST SOC A, V144, P94 LINDEN H, 1988, ENERG SOURCE, V10, P127 MAHAJAN V, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1589 MAHAJAN V, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V12, P51 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MARQUARDT DW, 1963, J SOC IND APPL MATH, V11, P431 MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA PAPATHEODOROU YE, 1990, ENERGY EC OCT, P269 SAMOUILIDIS JE, 1982, ANAL ENERGY NEEDS GR SAMOUILIDIS JE, 1982, FORECASTING ENERGY D SAMOULIDIS JE, 1980, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V8, P609 SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P247 SHARIF MN, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 SHARIF MN, 1984, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V31, P78 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 SKIADAS CH, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P313 SKIADAS CH, 1987, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V34, P79 STAPLETON E, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P325 VONBERTALANFFY L, 1957, Q REV BIOL, V32, P217 NR 24 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 44 IS 4 BP 391 EP 404 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MH593 UT ISI:A1993MH59300004 ER PT J AU ZHANG, WB TI KNOWLEDGE, ECONOMIC-GEOGRAPHY, AND GROWTH IN A 2-GROUP ISLAND ECONOMY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INCREASING RETURNS; TRADE; PREJUDICE; MODEL; LONG AB This paper proposes a two-group urban model with endogenous capital and knowledge accumulation in an isolated island economy. The model examines the dynamic interdependence among knowledge utilization, creativity, transportation conditions, savings behavior, location choice, and residential pattern in a just two-group island economy. Although it is constructed with some strict assumptions, the model is quite general in the sense that the well-known models, such as the Solow-Swan model, the Kaldor-Pasinetti two-group model, and the Alonso model, can be considered, from a structural point of view, as its special cases. The knowledge accumulation in our model is based upon Arrow's learning-by-doing model. It is proved that the system may have a unique or multiple equilibria and each equilibrium may be stable or unstable, depending upon knowledge utilization and creation characteristis of the two groups. We also examine the impact of changes in the population and knowledge creation efficiency of two groups on long-run growth, wealth distribution, and residential structure. RP ZHANG, WB, INST FUTURES STUDIES,BOX 6799,S-11385 STOCKHOLM,SWEDEN. CR ALONSO W, 1964, LOCATION LAND USE ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 AUTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 AUTHUR WB, 1990, MATH SOC SCI, V19, P235 BALDWIN RE, 1992, J ECON LIT, V30, P804 BECKMANN MJ, 1993, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V3, P361 BURMEISTER E, 1970, MATH THEORIES EC GRO DENDRINOS DS, 1990, CHAOS SOCIOSPATIAL D FUJITA M, 1989, URBAN EC THEORY LAND FUNG KM, 1992, J DEV ECON, V35, P63 GROSSMAN GM, 1991, INNOVATION GROWTH GL HENDERSON JV, 1985, EC THEORIES CITIES KANEMOTO Y, 1980, THEORIES URBAN EXTER KRUGMAN P, 1991, J POLIT ECON, V99, P483 LUCAS RE, 1988, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MILLS ES, 1987, HDB REGIONAL URBAN E, V2 MIYAGIWA K, 1989, INT ECON REV, V30, P187 MIYAGIWA K, 1991, INT ECON REV, V33, P743 PASINETTI LL, 1974, GROWTH INCOME DISTRI RAUCH JE, 1991, ECON J, V101, P1230 ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P71 ROSSER JB, 1991, CATASTROPHE CHAOS GE SATO K, 1966, REV ECON STUD, V33, P331 SCHNARE AB, 1976, URBAN STUD, V13, P107 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 SWAN TW, 1956, ECON REC, V32, P334 WANG JY, 1992, EUR ECON REV, V36, P137 WEIDLICH W, 1983, QUANTITATIVE SOCIOLO YANG XK, 1991, J POLIT ECON, V99, P460 YELLIN J, 1974, J URBAN ECON, V1, P21 YINGER J, 1976, J URBAN ECON, V3, P383 ZHANG WB, 1989, GEOGR ANAL, V21, P91 ZHANG WB, 1991, SYNERGETIC EC TIME C ZHANG WB, 1992, ECON LETT, V39, P199 ZHANG WB, 1993, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V43, P63 NR 36 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1993 VL 44 IS 4 BP 405 EP 418 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MH593 UT ISI:A1993MH59300005 ER PT J AU KOSTOFF, RN TI SEMIQUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR RESEARCH IMPACT ASSESSMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Three types of semiquantitative methods used by the federal government in research impact assessment are presented. These include the classic retrospective method (Project Hindsight), another retrospective approach (Project TRACES and follow-ons), and accomplishments books used by selected research-sponsoring organizations (Office of Naval Research, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Department of Energy Office of Health and Environmental Research, Department of Energy High Energy Physics Program, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed. One goal of all the studies presented was to identify the products of research and some of their impacts. In addition, the Hindsight, TRACES, and DARPA studies tried to identify factors that influenced the productivity and impact of research. The following general conclusions about the role and impact of basic research were reached: 1. The majority of basic research events that directly impacted technologies or systems were non-mission-oriented and occurred many decades before the technology or system emerged. 2. The cumulative indirect impacts of basic research were not accounted for by any of the retrospective approaches published. 3. An advanced pool of knowledge must be developed in many fields before synthesis leading to an innovation can occur. 4. Allocation of benefits among researchers, organizations, and funding agencies to determine economic returns from basic research is very difficult and arbitrary, especially at the micro level. RP KOSTOFF, RN, USN, OFF NAVAL RES, 800 N QUINCY ST, ARLINGTON, VA 22217 USA. CR *BAT COL LAB, 1973, NSFC667 CONTR *I DEF AN, 1990, DARPA TECHN ACC, V1 *I DEF AN, 1991, DARPA TECHN ACC, V2 *I DEF AN, 1991, DARPA TECHN ACC, V3 *IL I TECHN RES I, 1968, TECHN RETR CRIT EV S *US AIR FORC, 1989, REC RES ACC AIR FORC *US OFF DIR DEF RE, 1969, AD495905 *US OFF EN RES, 1982, DOEER0123 *US OFF EN RES, 1983, DOEER0194 REP *US OFF EN RES, 1986, DOEER0275 REP *US OFF EN RES, 1990, DOEER0435 REP *US OFF EN RES, 1991, DOEER0491P REP *US OFF NAV RES, 1989, 1989 ONR SIGN ACC *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1986, OTATMSET36 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1991, OTASET490 AVERCH H, 1990, POLICY USES EVALUATI CARPENTER MP, 1980, RES MANAGEMENT, V13 CHUBIN DE, 1990, PEERLESS SCI PEER RE COZZENS SE, 1987, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V14 FRAZIER SP, 1987, GAORCED8787FS US GEN HALL D, 1990, IEEE T ENG MANAGEMEN, V37 JOHNSTON R, 1990, PROJECT SELECTION ME KERPELMAN LC, 1985, METHODS STRATEGIC EV KING J, 1987, J INFORMATION SCI, V13 KOSTOFF RN, 1988, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V35, P271 KOSTOFF RN, 1991, 22ND ANN PITTSB C MO KOSTOFF RN, 1992, 3RD INT C MAN TECHN KOSTOFF RN, 1992, ASSESSING R D IMPACT LOGSDON JM, 1985, OVERVIEW FEDERAL RES LUUKKONENGRONOW T, 1987, R D MANAGEMENT, V17 MACROBERTS MH, 1989, J AM SOC INFORMATION, V40 MANSFIELD E, 1991, RES POLICY, V20 MILLER R, 1992, R D MANAGEMENT, V22 NARIN F, 1976, PB252339AS NARIN F, 1987, RES POLICY, V16 NARIN F, 1987, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V14 NARIN F, 1989, EVALUATION SCI RES ORMALA E, 1989, RES POLICY, V18 SALASIN J, 1980, MITRE MTR80W123 TECH WHITE HD, 1989, ANN REV INFORMATION, V24 WIRT JG, 1974, RAND R1156HEW REP NR 41 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 44 IS 3 BP 231 EP 244 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MC614 UT ISI:A1993MC61400001 ER PT J AU HARRISON, EF PELLETIER, MA TI A TYPOLOGY OF STRATEGIC CHOICE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DECISION AB There is an incredible paucity of studies focusing on what it takes to produce a successful strategic decision. The purpose of this paper is to advance the body of knowledge in this most important area. Using a two-dimensional typology of strategic choice, twelve real-world cases of strategic decision making are classified and evaluated. The results of these evaluations tend to confirm the typology of strategic choice and to suggest a need for additional research to validate the hypothesis that a formal decision-making process is conducive to successful strategic decision outcomes. This paper is intended for both professors and practioners of strategic choice. RP HARRISON, EF, SAN FRANCISCO STATE UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94132. CR ANDREWS KR, 1980, CONCEPT CORPORATE ST ASTLEY W, 1982, J MANAGE STUD, V19, P357 BASS BM, 1983, ORG DECISION MAKING, P16 BURROUGH B, 1990, BARBARIANS GATE FALL BUTLER R, 1991, DESIGNING ORG DECISI, P59 CHANDLER AD, 1962, STRATEGY STRUCTURE CHILD J, 1972, SOCIOLOGY, V6, P1 DONALDSON G, 1983, DECISION MAKING TOP DRUCKER P, 1967, EFFECTIVE EXECUTIVE, P113 EILON S, 1979, MANAGEMENT CONTROL FREDERIKSON EB, 1971, DECISION SCI, V2, P25 HAMBRICK DC, 1977, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT P, P109 HAMPTON WJ, 1987, BUSINESS WEEK 0316, P102 HARRISON E, 1992, J GEN MANAGE, V17, P72 HARRISON EF, 1978, MANAGEMENT ORG HARRISON EF, 1986, POLICY STRATEGY MANA HARRISON EF, 1987, MANAGERIAL DECISION HARRISON EF, 1989, J GEN MANAGE, V15, P57 HARTLEY RF, 1991, MANAGEMENT MISTAKES HARVEY DF, 1982, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT HEGARTY WH, 1987, LONG RANGE PLANN, V20, P76 HEREK GM, 1987, J CONFLICT RESOLUT, V31, P202 HICKSON DJ, 1986, TOP DECISIONS STRATE HOLSAPPLE CW, 1980, POLICY SCI, V13, P83 HOSMER LT, 1982, J BUSINESS STRAT FAL, P47 JANIS IL, 1968, THEORIES COGNITIVE C, P577 JURKUS AF, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V11, P59 LOOMIS CJ, 1991, FORTUNE 0506, P60 MAOZ Z, 1981, J CONFLICT RESOLUT, V25, P677 MEE JF, 1965, MANAGEMENT PERSPECTI, P59 MINTZBERG H, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P246 NOEL A, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V10, P33 PETERS TJ, 1982, SEARCH EXCELLENCE REDMAN C, 1985, FORTUNE 0624, P58 SCHRENK LP, 1969, ERGONOMICS, V12, P543 SHIRLEY RC, 1982, ACAD MANAGE REV, P262 SIMON HA, NEW SCI MANAGEMENT D STEIN BJ, 1991, BARRONS 0401, P3 THOMPSON JD, 1959, COMP STUDIES ADM, P195 THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TRULL SG, 1966, MANAGE SCI, V12, B270 VANDERMERWE A, 1985, LONG RANGE PLANN, V18, P100 WILSON CZ, 1962, ACAD MANAGE J AUG, P150 WITTE E, 1972, INT STUDIES MANAGEME, P156 NR 44 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 44 IS 3 BP 245 EP 263 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MC614 UT ISI:A1993MC61400002 ER PT J AU HERBIG, P GOLDEN, JE TI THE WHEEL OF INNOVATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY AB The wheel of innovation refers to the concept whereby those very same forces that create an innovative hot spot also eventually provide the seeds for the hot spot's decline. An innovative hot spot creates economic prosperity. An increasing demand for economic entitlements within the hot spot creates negative structure that is not conducive to later entrepreneurs or new ventures. This tends to put a damper on further innovative activity within the maturing hot spot. This rags-to-riches-to-rags evolution of innovation hot spots is termed the wheel of innovation. This paper examines the phenomenon from a historical perspective and provide insights on how a country and a region can continue to succeed without falling victim to the phenomenon. C1 JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIV,COLL COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MKT,JACKSONVILLE,AL 36265. CR ARMSTRONG JH, 1984, NE J BUSINESS EC, V11, P35 ARMSTRONG JH, 1990, PHILADELPHIA BUSINES, V8, P1 BARNETT HG, 1953, INNOVATION BASIS CUL DRUCKER PF, 1985, INNOVATION ENTREPREN ENGSTROM T, 1987, HIGH TECHNOL, V7, P24 FARRELL K, 1983, VENTURE SEP, P38 GALBRAITH CS, 1985, CALIF MANAGE REV, V28, P98 GILPIN R, 1968, FRANCE AGE SCI STATE GRAHAM RJ, 1984, HUM SYST MANAGE, V4, P189 HAAR SV, 1988, DALLAS BUSINESS J, V12, P1 HALL P, 1985, SILICON LANDSCAPES HALL P, 1988, CARRIER WAVE HERBIG PA, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V40 HERBIG PA, 1992, KILLING GOLDEN GOOSE KENNEY M, 1986, BIOTECHNOLOGY U IND KOTKIN J, 1988, 3RD CENTURY AM RESUR LANDES DS, 1969, UNBOUND PROMETHEUS MARKUSEN A, 1986, HIGH TECH AM MOKYR J, 1991, LEVER RICHES TECHNOL OAKEY R, 1984, HIGH TECHNOLOGY SMAL ROTHWELL R, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P91 SMILOR RW, 1987, RES MANAGE, V30, P36 SOETE L, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P409 VANDUIJN JJ, 1981, FUTURES AUG, P264 WEBER MK, 1976, PROTESTANT ETHIC SPI WIENER MJ, 1981, ENGLISH CULTURE DECL NR 26 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 44 IS 3 BP 265 EP 282 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MC614 UT ISI:A1993MC61400003 ER PT J AU FILIPPINI, L TI A NOTE ON THE DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The paper deals with the process of substitution between technologies in a framework of increasing returns to scale. The approach stresses the interaction between capacity expansion and market demand as explanations of the diffusion of technologies into their niches. The demand and supply sides of the diffusion process are therefore brought together to determine simultaneously patterns of output and prices. It analyzes the dynamics-of the substitution path, where a logistic diffusion process for the new technology is assumed, and determines the substitution curve between the old technology and the new one. RP FILIPPINI, L, CATHOLIC UNIV SACRED HEART,LARGO GEMELLI 1,I-20123 MILAN,ITALY. CR BHATTACHARYA S, 1986, STRATEGIC BEHAVIOUR, P219 BINMORE KG, 1985, MATH ANAL CAMERON HM, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P147 DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN DAVIS HT, 1962, INTRO NONLINEAR DIFF KREIDER DL, 1968, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIO METCALFE JS, 1981, FUTURES, V13, P347 METCALFE JS, 1986, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIO, P35 METCALFE JS, 1987, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V3, P91 METCALFE JS, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P560 STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA VARIAN HR, 1984, MICROECONOMIC ANAL NR 12 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 44 IS 3 BP 283 EP 290 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MC614 UT ISI:A1993MC61400004 ER PT J AU TRUMAN, K LOPEZ, EC TI THE COMMUNITY - PERSPECTIVES FOR ITS SUSTAINABILITY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The community has been the core social planning unit throughout history. It was through a process of dialogue and consensus building within the community that problems were perceived and defined, and plans for solutions agreed upon and implemented. The rural communities of the Maya zone of Mexico and Central America are undergoing an accelerated transformation of their economic and political context and physical environment. However, after decades of neglect or domination by the centralized bureaucracies, existing communities and new social groups often lack the experience necessary to address the new opportunities for participation, planning, and management to achieve the goals and objectives of the people. This article reports on the problems and results of a program of community participation and sustainable development. In the participatory planning process the social group can create its own shared unity of purpose and sense of achievement. Thus, the participatory planning process is not only a tool for the identification and resolution of problems at the local level but is also a means for creating a sense of social well being, and recreating the community. C1 UNIV CALIF RIVERSIDE,SOSTENIBILIDAD MAYA PROJECT,RIVERSIDE,CA 92521. RP TRUMAN, K, UNIV CALIF RIVERSIDE,DRY LANDS RES INST,RIVERSIDE,CA 92521. CR ACKOFF RL, 1981, CREATING CORPORATE F BELL DE, 1977, CONFLICTING OBJECTIV, P3 BROWN LR, 1991, STATE WORLD 1991, P18 CANCIAN F, 1965, EC PRESTIGE MAYA COM CLAY JW, 1991, CULTURAL SURVIVAL RE, V27, P1 DURKHEIM E, 1933, DIVISION LABOR SOC DURNING A, 1991, STATE WORLD 1991, P151 EDWARDS M, 1986, 3RD WORLD Q, V11, P116 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, GLOBAL ENV ISSUES EM JOHNSTON B, 1982, REDESIGNING RURAL DE KORTON D, 1986, COMMUNITY MANAGEMENT KORTON DC, 1981, RURAL DEV PARTICIPAT, V2 KORTON FF, 1981, RURAL DEV PARTICIPAT, V2, P1 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1989, SYSTEMS PRACTICE, V2, P307 LINSTONE HA, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI ORANS M, 1968, AM ANTHROPOL, V70, P875 ORANS M, 1971, URBAN AFFAIRS ANN RE, V5, P83 PARTRIDGE W, 1983, AM ANTHROPOL, V85, P408 PERALTA GA, 1980, ESTUDIOS SOCIALES CE, V9, P217 SACHDEVA PS, 1988, THESIS U PENNSYLVANI SENGE PM, 1990, 5TH DISCIPLINE ART P, P3 SMITH C, 1984, COMP STUDIES SOC HIS, V26, P93 STAVENHAGEN R, 1986, DEV STUDIES CRITIQUE STAVENHAGEN R, 1987, DEVELOPMENT, V12 STEA D, 1988, EDRA, V19, P5 TRUMAN K, 1981, THESIS U CALIFORNIA TUROFF M, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P107 WOLF ER, 1955, AM ANTHROPOL, V57, P452 NR 29 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 44 IS 3 BP 291 EP 314 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MC614 UT ISI:A1993MC61400005 ER PT J AU KASTEIN, MR JACOBS, M VANDERHELL, RH LUTTIK, K TOUWOTTEN, FWMM TI DELPHI, THE ISSUE OF RELIABILITY - A QUALITATIVE DELPHI STUDY IN PRIMARY HEALTH-CARE IN THE NETHERLANDS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Problems arise when reliability and accuracy of the Delphi technique are assessed. So far, reliability has been evaluated by comparing two or more Delphi studies on the same subject, using Pearson, kappa, or rank-order coefficients. However, this strategy is not very effective or informative. When numerical ratings of repondents are available and these ratings are normally distributed, reliability of Delphi can be evaluated in a more accurate and effective way by means of the intraclass correlation coefficient. If the investigator expects any systematic effects of factors characterizing the design of a study, these effects can be extracted from the error variance and analyzed separately. A second advantage of the intraclass correlation coefficient is that it can be derived from the ratings of only one group of respondents. Collecting extra data is not necessary. By using this strategy, the evaluation of reliability becomes feasible in individual applications. The concept is systematically elaborated in a Delphi study carried out to develop evaluation criteria for the performance of family physicians consulted by patients having nonspecific abdominal complaints. RP KASTEIN, MR, UNIV UTRECHT,DEPT FAMILY MED,BIJLHOUWERSTR 6,3511 ZC UTRECHT,NETHERLANDS. CR BRAVO G, 1991, J CLIN EPIDEMIOL, V44, P381 CHAFFIN WW, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V16, P67 CRONBACH LJ, 1972, DEPENDABILITY BEHAVI DAJANI JS, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V13, P83 RAUCH W, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15, P159 ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P235 SACKMAN H, 1974, DELPHI CRITIQUE TUROFF M, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI WOUDENBERG F, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V40, P131 NR 9 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1993 VL 44 IS 3 BP 315 EP 323 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA MC614 UT ISI:A1993MC61400006 ER PT J AU BERRY, BJL KIM, H KIM, HM TI ARE LONG WAVES DRIVEN BY TECHNOECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS - EVIDENCE FOR THE UNITED-STATES AND THE UK SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB What drives long-wave rhythms? This paper provides evidence that long waves of prices (54-year Kondratiev waves) are driven by the diffusion and decline of techno-economic systems. Successive systems have reached peak deployment in the decades preceding inflation peaks, a sequence that is consistent for both the U.S. and the U.K., and one that points to a long-wave theory in which the key relationships are endogenous. The essentials of the theory are presented. C1 UNIV TEXAS,BRUTON CTR DEV STUDIES,DALLAS,TX 75230. UNIV TEXAS,SCH SOCIAL SCI,DALLAS,TX 75230. CR AYRES RU, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36, P111 AYRES RU, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36, P111 BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BORCHERT JR, 1961, GEOGR REV, V57, P301 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P38 MENSCH G, 1975, TECHNOLOGISCHE PATT MENSCH GO, 1987, LONG WAVE DEBATE, P373 NAKICENOVIC N, 1987, LONG WAVE DEBATE, P76 RASMUSSEN S, 1989, EUR J OPER RES, V42, P279 SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES THOMAS B, 1972, MIGRATION URBAN DEV VANGELDEREN J, 1913, NIEUWE TIJD, V18, P253 VANGELDEREN J, 1913, NIEUWE TIJD, V18, P445 NR 13 TC 17 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 44 IS 2 BP 111 EP 135 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LU291 UT ISI:A1993LU29100001 ER PT J AU WEINER, D TI POWER 2000 - A NEW CONCEPT FOR THE ELECTRICAL-POWER INDUSTRY IN THE 21ST-CENTURY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; HORNET CUTICLE AB A new concept for an alternative structure of the electrical power industry in the twenty-first century is outlined. It is argued that through a transition period, the existing dynamic for change driven by technological and economic development would shift the main means of production from mechanical ones into high technology devices utilizing the achievements of ''mechatronics.'' It is assessed that a biological paradigm would prevail, examples of which are presented to prove its influence on energy systems. These developments will affect power economies, with a direction sketched towards an increase in the use of renewable energies. C1 TECHNION ISRAEL INST TECHNOL,HAIFA,ISRAEL. RP WEINER, D, ISRAEL ELECT CORP LTD,DEPT ENERGY RESOURCES DEV,POB 10,IL-31000 HAIFA,ISRAEL. CR BANNISTER RL, ASME88WAHH1 PAP BASHAMBU RL, 1985, AACE T BASILE BJ, 1990, OCT JOINT ASME IEEE BEHSHALOM A, 1990, BIOCH PHYSL A, V97, P555 BENSHALOM A, 1988, PHYSIOL CHEM PHYS M, V20, P227 BENSHALOM A, 1989, PHYSIOL CHEM PHYS M, V21, P95 BERGER J, 1977, J THEOR BIOL, V6, P393 BLANKHORN DL, 1991, IEEE ENG MANAGEMENT, V19, P74 BOUVET J, 1989, 14TH C WORLD ENERGY CORNELL EP, 1977, IEEE T IND APPL, P321 FICKET AP, 1990, SCI AM SEP, P29 FLORIDA R, 1991, FUTURES JUL, P559 GUST D, 1989, SCIENCE, V244, P35 GUST D, 1990, SCIENCE, V248, P199 HUNT VD, 1988, MECHATRONICS JAPANS KANCKO T, 1977, NATURE, V270, P569 LEE KY, 1992, IEEE T POWER SYST, V7, P124 LOOSE VW, 1980, ENERGY SYSTEMS POLIC, V4, P37 MILLER JG, 1976, BEHAV SCI, V21, P295 OHYAMA K, 1985, T I ELECT ENG JPN B, V105, P893 OUYANG Z, 1992, IEEE T POWER SYST, V7, P236 PARK DC, 1991, IEEE T POWER SYSTEMS, V6 PRIGOGINE I, 1980, BEING BECOMING SCHWEPPE FC, 1980, IEEE T POWER APPAR G, V9, P1151 THIBAULT J, 1991, INT J HEAT MASS TRAN, V34, P2063 WALKER W, 1985, ENERG POLICY, V13, P458 WASSERMAN PD, 1989, NEURAL COMPUTING THE YFLAVIN C, 1991, SUNWORLD, V15, P23 NR 28 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 44 IS 2 BP 137 EP 146 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LU291 UT ISI:A1993LU29100002 ER PT J AU MARTINO, JP TI A COMPARISON OF 2 COMPOSITE MEASURES OF TECHNOLOGY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB When a technology is characterized by multiple parameters, some means of combining these into a single measure of performance is required. This paper compares two different composite measures of technology by applying them to the same data set, fighter aircraft preformance. In general, the two methods produce results consistent with each other, but some individual devices are not treated consistently. The similarities and differences between the two methods are discussed. C1 UNIV DAYTON,RES INST,DAYTON,OH 45469. CR ALEXANDER AJ, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V5, P189 DELANEY CL, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V5, P249 HUTZLER WP, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P197 NR 3 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 44 IS 2 BP 147 EP 159 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LU291 UT ISI:A1993LU29100003 ER PT J AU FARRELL, CJ TI A THEORY OF TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A theory of the development of artifacts and their technologies is presented. This theory starts by establishing a hierarchy of artifacts and classifying them in a simple scheme. Then the growth of a new artifact in the absence of substantial competition is modeled and illustrated with realistic examples. The model is further developed to explain the substitution of one artifact technology for another. It is shown that substitution is a special case in a more general theory which is necessary when an attacker has a performance advantage over the defender as is usually the case. This is quantified in several real instances. Finally the important role of stochastic events is shown by defining five categories and some of their known effects. RP FARRELL, CJ, BAXTER HEALTHCARE CORP,DIV IV SYST,SCI AFFAIRS GRP,BAXTER TECHNOL PK,ROUTE 120 & WILSON RD,ROUND LAKE,IL 60073. CR *GE, 1970, 70C21K TECH REP BASALLA G, 1988, EVOLUTION TECHNOLOGY BURKE J, 1979, CONNECTIONS COOPER RG, 1990, NEW PRODUCTS KEY FAC DRUCKER PF, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P67 FARRELL C, 1993, NEW SCI, V137, P35 FISHER JC, 1971, IND APPLICATIONS TEC FOSTER RN, 1986, INNOVATION GAUSE GF, 1932, J EXP BIOL, V9, P389 KOVAC FJ, 1978, TIRE TECHNOLOGY GOOD KREBS CJ, 1985, ECOLOGY LOTKA AJ, 1925, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MARES GC, 1985, HIST TYPEWRITER SUCC MOKYR J, 1990, LEVER RICHES PEARL R, 1927, Q REV BIOL, V2, P532 PIELOU EC, 1969, INTRO MATH ECOLOGY ROTHSCHILD M, 1990, BIONOMICS VOLTERRA V, 1931, LECONS THEORIE MATH NR 18 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 44 IS 2 BP 161 EP 178 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LU291 UT ISI:A1993LU29100004 ER PT J AU LIU, WG TI A QUANTITATIVE TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO AIRCRAFT ENGINES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A nonlinear differential equation model for analyzing technology transfer processes from technological leader to technological follower is presented in this paper. The change in the follower's absorbing capability is explicitly taken into account in the model. The general analytic solution to the model is obtained. Based on the solution, scenarios of technology transfer between leaders and followers are discussed. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated in the analysis of the development of aircraft turbine engines in the People's Republic of China. Technological gaps in aircraft turbine engines between China and the United States are assessed and forecasted quantitatively by using the model. RP LIU, WG, OREGON STATE UNIV,COLL OCEANOG,OCEANOG ADM,BLDG 104,CORVALLIS,OR 97331. CR ALEXANDER AJ, 1972, RANDR1017ARPAPR BARRANSON J, 1969, IND TECHNOLOGIES DEV BARRANSON J, 1981, N S TECHNOLOGY TRANS BIRKLER JR, 1982, RANDN1882AF BROOKMAN FH, 1983, SCI PUBL POLICY, V1, P229 BUCH FJ, 1981, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, V5, P132 FOSTER G, 1979, IND TECHNOLOGY TRANS GEE S, 1979, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER HAWKINS RG, 1981, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER HAYDEN E, 1984, OCT P INT C TECHN TE LINSTON H, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI LIU WG, 1988, CHINESE AVIATION, V9 RAZ B, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V24, P31 RAZ B, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P251 SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V16, P3 SHARIF MN, 1984, IEEE T ENG MANAG, V3 SOUDER WE, 1987, MANAGING NEW PRODUCT, P217 WEINBERGER CW, 1981, WALL STREE J 0112 NR 18 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 44 IS 2 BP 179 EP 186 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LU291 UT ISI:A1993LU29100005 ER PT J AU NIKOV, A MATARAZZO, G ORLANDO, A TI A METHODOLOGY FOR HUMAN-FACTORS ANALYSIS IN OFFICE AUTOMATION SYSTEMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A methodology for computer-aided human factors analysis in office automation systems (OAS) design and implementation process has been developed. It incorporates a fuzzy knowledge-based evaluation mechanism which is employed to aggregate data measured in scales of different type. The methodology has a high degree of flexibility which allows it to be adjusted to the individual client situation. A case study in public administration for assessing OAS introduction from users' point of view has been carried out. On the basis of the results recommendations on further implementation have been proposed. The advantages, disadvantages, and further developments are discussed. C1 FDN UGO BORDONI,DIV STRATEG TELECOMMUN ASPECTS,HUMAN FACTORS GRP,VIA B CASTIGLIONE 59,I-00142 ROME,ITALY. TECH UNIV SOFIA,DEPT ERGON & DESIGN,SOFIA,BULGARIA. CR BAKER E, 1984, NOV P AUSTR COMP C S BIKSON T, 1987, UNDERSTANDING IMPLEM BODKER K, 1989, OFFICE TECHNOLOGY PE, V4, P75 BUDESCU DV, IN PRESS INT J MAN M CIBORRA C, 1989, TECNOLOGIE COORDINAM CZAJA SJ, 1987, OFFICE TECHNOLOGY PE, V3, P231 DUBOIS D, 1980, FUZZY SETS SYSTEMS EASON K, 1988, INFORMATION TECHNOLO FEDER M, 1989, RECHENTECHNIK DATENV, V26, P6 HIRSCHHEIM R, 1985, OFFICE AUTOMATION SO LATRILLE J, 1990, 13TH P INT S HUM FAC, P91 MATARAZZO G, 1991, COST2122ND INT REP NIEMEIER J, 1990, OFFICE MANAGEMENT, V38, P6 RICHARDSON S, 1985, 2ND P IFAC IFIP IFOR, P249 ROGERS EM, 1981, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SCHAFER G, 1988, FUNCTIONAL ANAL OFFI SHACKEL B, 1986, SERC CREST ADV COURS STOEVA S, 1991, MODELLING SIMULATION, V25, P17 STUBLER WF, 1987, 31ST P ANN M RIS NEW, V2, P1151 TURKSEN IB, 1991, FUZZY SET SYST, V40, P5 YATES RF, 1988, BRIT TELECOM J, V6 NR 21 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 44 IS 2 BP 187 EP 197 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LU291 UT ISI:A1993LU29100006 ER PT J AU SHARMA, HD SUSHIL GUPTA, AD TI PRESENT AND FUTURE-STATUS OF SYSTEM WASTE - A NATIONAL-LEVEL DELPHI IN INDIA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB To focus explicitly on waste and its reduction, a concept of system waste has been developed and reported in the literature. In this paper an attempt has been made to categorize system waste at aggregate levels and to learn about the current and future status of system waste in various sectors in India. System waste, which is defined as ''any unnecessary input to and/or any undesirable output from any system,'' is complex, multifaceted, subjective, and not generally clearly understood. Its study is a fit case for the use of qualitative group problem-solving techniques. Delphi is one of the techniques that can be used in such cases. A two-round Delphi study on system waste and waste management practices was conducted in 1990 at the national level in India in which participants from eight sectors of the Indian economy were included. The paper describes the study and its results. C1 GBPUAT,COLL TECHNOL,DEPT MECH ENGN,PANTNAGAR,INDIA. INDIAN INST TECHNOL,CTR MANAGEMENT STUDIES,NEW DELHI 110016,INDIA. RP SHARMA, HD, INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT MECH ENGN,NEW DELHI 110016,INDIA. CR 1990, YOJANA, V34, P1 *ASS CHAMB COMM IN, 1991, BACKGR PAP WORKS WAS *CENT STAT ORG, 1990, IMP OUTP TRANS TABL ARMSTRONG JS, 1985, LONG RANGE FORECASTI BROCKHOFF K, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI DAJANI JS, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V13, P83 DALKEY NC, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P283 HELMER O, 1983, LOOKING FORWARD GUID HUCHFELDT VE, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P75 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LUDLOW J, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MAKOROV IM, 1987, THEORY CHOICE DECISI MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MOORE CM, 1987, GROUP TECHNIQUES IDE MORAN JM, 1986, INTRO ENV SCI OLSEN SA, 1982, GROUP PLANNING PROLE RIEGER WG, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P195 SCHEELE DS, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI SUSHIL, 1989, SYSTEM APPROACH NATI SUSHIL, 1990, IND MANAGEMENT DATA, V90, P2 TUROFF M, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI VANDIJK AGM, 1989, QUAL QUANT, V23, P109 VANDIJK JAGM, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P399 WARFIELD JN, SCI GENERIC DESIGN M, V1 YOUNG B, 1982, GROUP PLANNING PROBL NR 26 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1993 VL 44 IS 2 BP 199 EP 218 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LU291 UT ISI:A1993LU29100007 ER PT J AU MURDICK, RG GEORGOFF, DM TI FORECASTING - A SYSTEMS-APPROACH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID EXTRAPOLATION AB This paper discusses current forecasting nomenclature limitations and suggests that technique selection should include the total forecast system. It next presents a model that identifies system components and dimensions and characteristics of components. This produces a morphology of forecasting and a classification system suggesting new and better forecast selection approaches and structural forecast combinations. C1 FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNIV,COLL BUSINESS,POB 3091,BOCA RATON,FL 33431. CR ARMSTRON GJS, 1987, HDB FORECASTING MANA ARMSTRONG JS, LONG RANGE FORECASTI, P14 ARMSTRONG JS, 1984, INTERFACES, V14, P52 ASCHER W, 1978, FORECASTING APPRAISA ASSMUS G, 1984, J FORECASTING, V12, P121 AYERS RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA BOSHOFF H, 1989, LONG RANGE PLANN, V22, P69 BROWN RG, 1981, J FORECASTING, V1, P49 BUNN D, 1991, MANAGE SCI, V37, P501 CHAMBERS DM, 1971, HARVARD BUS REV, V49, P32 COATES PK, 1983, J BUSINESS FORECASTI, V2, P22 GEORGOFF DM, 1986, HARVARD BUS REV, V64, P110 GERJUOY H, 1977, STUDY FUTURE AGENDA, P14 GOTTINGER HW, 1989, J TECHNOLOGY MANAGEM, V4, P141 GRANGER CWJ, 1980, FORECASTING BUSINESS, P215 GROSS CW, 1982, J BUSINESS FORECASTI, V1, P6 HOSMER L, 1982, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, P174 LEBELL D, 1977, ACAD MANAGE REV, V2, P373 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1982, J FORECASTING, V1, P111 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1989, FORECASTING METHODS MAKRIDAKIS S, 1989, FORECASTING METHODS, P210 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1989, FORECASTING METHODS, P84 MARTINO JM, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MORIARTY MM, 1985, J MARKETING RES, V22, P353 MOYER R, 1984, LONG RANGE PLANN, V17, P65 SCHNAARS SP, 1989, MEGAMISTAKES SCHNAARS SP, 1989, MEGAMISTAKES, CH10 NR 27 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 44 IS 1 BP 1 EP 16 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LM364 UT ISI:A1993LM36400001 ER PT J AU KALAITZANDONAKES, NG BOGGESS, WG TI A DYNAMIC DECISION-THEORETIC MODEL OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION FOR THE COMPETITIVE FIRM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PROFITABILITY; DIFFUSION AB In this article, the technology adoption problem of the competitive firm is revisited. The firm is assumed to allocate a quasi fixed factor between a traditional and a new technology. In the presence of costs of adjustment and learning, the adoption problem is formulated as an optimal control problem. C1 UNIV FLORIDA,DEPT AGR ECON,GAINESVILLE,FL 32611. RP KALAITZANDONAKES, NG, UNIV MISSOURI,DEPT AGR ECON,200 MUMFORD HALL,COLUMBIA,MO 65211. CR ARROW KJ, 1971, ESSAYS THEORY RISK B DAVIS SW, 1979, EUROPEAN EC REV, V12, P299 FEDER G, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P312 FREUND RJ, 1956, ECONOMETRICA, V24, P253 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 JENSEN R, 1982, J ECON THEORY, V27, P182 JUST RE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V7, P67 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 PRATT JW, 1964, ECONOMETRICA, V32, P122 RAUSSER GC, 1978, AM J AGR ECON, V60, P476 STONEMAN P, 1981, ECON J, V91, P375 NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 44 IS 1 BP 17 EP 25 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LM364 UT ISI:A1993LM36400002 ER PT J AU EHRNBERG, E JACOBSSON, S TI TECHNOLOGICAL DISCONTINUITY AND COMPETITIVE STRATEGY - REVIVAL THROUGH FMS FOR THE EUROPEAN MACHINE-TOOL INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 CHALMERS UNIV TECHNOL,DEPT IND MANAGEMENT & ECON,S-41296 GOTHENBURG,SWEDEN. CR 1963, AM MACHINIST 0722 1968, 10TH AM MACH INV M 2 1973, 11TH AM MACH INV MET 1978, 12TH AM MACH INV MET 1983, 13TH AM MACH INV MET 1989, 14TH AM MACH INV MET 1989, JAPAN CO HDB WIN 1989, PRIME, V200 1989, US DEP COMMERCE *BOST CONS GROUP, 1989, STAND BEST FLEX FERT *COM EUR COOP IND, INT STAT MACH TOOLS *FRAUENH I, 1989, STAND AUSS FERT AUT *INT I APPL SYST A, 1989, FMS WORLD DAT BANK *MTTA, 1983, BAS FACTS BRIT MACH *OFF SCI TECHN COU, 1989, 890627 SPEC REP, V1 ANTONELLI C, 1990, 17TH ANN C EARIE LIS CARLSSON B, 1991, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V1, P257 COOPER A, 1976, BUSINESS HORIZON FEB DECKEL, 1989, COMMUNICATION DERTOUZOS M, 1989, MADE AM REGAINING PR EDQUIST C, 1988, FLEXIBLE AUTOMATION EHRNBERG E, 1991, 18TH EARIE ANN C FER EHRNBERG E, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE FOSTER R, 1986, RES MANAGEMENT JUL GOLD B, 1981, J IND EC MAR GRANSTRAND O, 1990, RES POLICY, V19 GRANSTRAND O, 1991, AUG MARSTR S EC TECH GROSPIETRO GM, 1989, TECHNOVATION, V9, P493 HELLER, 1989, COMMUNICATION HILLE H, 1989, COMMUNICATION JACOBSON S, 1986, WORLD IND STUDIES, V5 JACOBSSON S, 1985, UNIDOIS565 JACOBSSON S, 1991, IN PRESS LIBERALIZAT JONES D, 1983, TECHNICAL CHANGE JAP MCCORMACK J, 1989, OCT C COMP STRAT TEL PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PORTER ME, 1986, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY RANTA J, EC BENEFITS FLEXIBLE RANTA J, 1989, EC SUCCESS FACTORS F ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL SAJO, 1990, COMMUNICATION STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA TCHIJOV I, 1989, FMS WORLD DATA BANK TCHIJOV I, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P277 TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 UTTERBACK J, 1984, INVASION STABLE BUSI WERNER, 1989, COMMUNICATION WERNER, 1989, EXAMPLES TYPES COMPU NR 48 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 44 IS 1 BP 27 EP 48 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LM364 UT ISI:A1993LM36400003 ER PT J AU DROR, I TI THE PROCESS OF TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION - MULTITECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS AS THE DRIVING-FORCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PATENTS AB Technological innovations are the substance of technology and the drivers of its evolution. This process was studied by analyzing the US patent data base, getting information on types of innovation and on their trends. It was found that the evolution of a technology depends upon its annexing multitechnology innovations. Ascending technologies utilize wide-range innovations, while mature technologies utilize narrow-range innovations. The findings are summed up in a model that shows the life cycle of a technology, from emergence to maturity. The model can be applied at a laboratory level, at a firm strategy level, as well as at the national level. Some examples are presented to illustrate applications. CR *US PAT TRAD OFF, 1977, MAN CLASS BASALLA G, 1988, EVOLUTION TECHNOLOGY DROR I, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P69 DROR I, 1989, R D MANAGE, V19, P243 GRILICHES Z, 1914, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI, P14 GRILICHES Z, 1989, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, P291 LEVIN RC, 1987, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V3, P783 MANSFIELD E, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P173 MENSCH G, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY NARIN F, 1984, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V31, P172 ROSENBERG N, 1979, TECHNOL CULT, V20, P25 TEICH AH, 1986, TECHNOLOGY FUTURE ZEGVELD W, 1987, SDI IND TECHNOLOGY P, P127 NR 13 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 44 IS 1 BP 49 EP 58 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LM364 UT ISI:A1993LM36400004 ER PT J AU ROGERS, SL TI IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT SPENDING AND THE BIFURCATING LABOR-MARKET ON HIGH-TECHNOLOGY AND HIGHER-EDUCATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID UNIVERSITY AB In the past decade the social effects of technological change have contributed to the increasing bifurcations in the economy and the occupational structure. These changes, taken together with the consequences of governmental research and development spending patterns and the structural changes taking place at higher educational institutions, have implications for higher education policy making in the 1990s and beyond that are too important to minimize or ignore any longer. This paper demonstrates how the academic community can enhance its income, status, and effectiveness in society by responding to the effects of technological change, and offers some strategies for coping with changing skill requirements and industry-university partnerships. RP ROGERS, SL, KENT STATE UNIV,LIB 370,KENT,OH 44242. CR 1984, SOCIAL EC TRENDS 198, P7 1991, STATISTICAL ABSTRACT 1991, WORLD BOOK ALMANAC B *US DEP ED, 1991, DIGEST ED STATISTICS ANDERSON BL, 1983, STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT CARTWRIGHT C, 1992, AKRON BEACON J 0405 CASTELLS M, 1985, HIGH TECHNOLOGY SPAC CERYCH L, 1985, HIGHER ED EUROPE, V10, P6 DANIELS P, 1982, SERVICE IND GROWTH L ELKHAWAS E, 1986, CAMPUS TRENDS 1985 HAUPTMAN A, 1991, RES BRIEFS, V2, P1 JANKOWSKI JE, 1988, NATIONAL PATTERNS SC LEVIN HM, 1983, ED IMPLICATIONS HIGH LEVINE DU, 1989, SOC ED LYNTON EA, 1984, MISSING CONNECTION B MENEFEE R, 1983, J COLL SCI TEACH, V13, P70 MOLNAR AR, 1982, APPALACHIA NOV, V16, P1 NOYELLE TJ, 1984, WORK WORLD HIGH TECH OKERSON A, 1992, COMMUNICATION 0306 PETERS LS, 1990, TECHNOL SOC, V12, P427 RAZIK TA, 1990, ETR&D-EDUC TECH RES, V38, P65 REDD K, 1988, COMP ED STATISTICS E RICHE RW, 1983, MON LABOR REV, V106, P50 SCHEMENT JR, 1983, TELECOMMUNICATIO MAR SLAUGHTER S, 1990, HIGHER LEARNING HIGH VLEGGAAR J, 1991, RES TECHNOL MANAGE, V34, P19 WEINGARTEN F, 1991, EDUCOM REV, V26, P26 WOLFE D, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL PR NR 28 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 44 IS 1 BP 59 EP 67 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LM364 UT ISI:A1993LM36400005 ER PT J AU HALAL, WE TI THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION - COMPUTER HARDWARE, SOFTWARE, AND SERVICES INTO THE 21ST-CENTURY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DELPHI AB A literature scan, Delphi survey, and interviews are used to forecast future developments in information technology. Results show that highly advanced computer hardware should become commonly available about the year 2000, including a powerful new class of superchips, portable computers, parallel processors, public information networks, and possibly optical computers. Far more sophisticated software should be widely used at roughly the same time, such as ''pert systems, automatically generated programming, personal assistants, and programs that enable computers to talk and to learn. The use of information services like telecommuting, electronic education, teleconferencing, and electronic shopping is also likely, but will probably lag technical advances by several years because sensitive changes in social behavior are involved. All these developments suggest that the information technology revolution should mature during the decade of 2000-2010, dramatically altering the social order around the globe. RP HALAL, WE, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,SCH BUSINESS & PUBL MANAGEMENT,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,WASHINGTON,DC 20052. CR 1985, SCIENCE MAY 1987, BREAKTHROUGH AUG 1987, WALL STREET J 0331 1988, BUSINESS WEEK 0509 1988, NEWSLETTER DIGES OCT 1988, TIME 0328 1989, BUSINESS WEEK 0313 1990, VITAL SPEECHES 1215 1991, BUSINESS WEEK 1125 1991, EXTRAPOLATIONS FAL 1992, BUSINESS WEEK 0302 1992, BUSINESS WEEK 0406 *INT DAT CORP, 1991, APPL NETW REP *NAT CRIT TECHN PA, 1991, REP *US DEP COMM, 1990, EM TECHN *US DEP DEF, 1991, DEF CRIT TECHN PLAN ARSENIDE G, 1986, BUSINESS WEEK 0310 BETTS M, 1991, COMPUTER WORLD 0722 BUGLIARELLO G, 1984, FUTURIST DEC BURGESS J, 1989, WASHINGTON POST 0421 CAUDILL M, 1990, NATURALLY INTELLIGEN CORNISH E, 1985, FUTURIST DEC DAVIS D, 1990, ELECTRONIC BUSI 1112 FURGER R, 1989, INFORWORLD 1009 GILDER G, 1989, MICROCOSM QUANTUM RE HAGEDORN A, 1988, WALL STREET J 0216 HALAL W, 1986, NEW CAPITALISM HALAL W, 1990, BUSINESS CONT WO WIN HALAL WE, 1988, FUTURIST SEP HALAL WE, 1990, ICIS FORUM APR HILTZ SR, 1978, NETWORK NATION HOOPER L, 1990, WALL STREET J 0130 JOHANSEN R, 1984, TELECONFERENCING BEY LAABAERT D, 1991, TECHNOLOGY 2001 FUTU LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI PELED A, 1987, SCI AM OCT RAPPAPORT AS, 1991, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P235 RUNNOE G, 1989, NETWORK WORLD 0703 SACKMAN H, 1974, DELPHI CRITIQUE SCHWARTZ J, 1992, BUSINESS WEEK 0406 SHAFFNER J, 1991, UNPUB DELPHI STUDY E SONENSHINE T, 1990, WASHINGTON POST 1002 SPAYD L, 1991, WASHINGTON POST 0305 STIPP D, 1988, WALL STREET J 0913 TOFFLER A, 1990, POWERSHIFT VOBEJDA B, 1991, WASHINGTON POST 0519 WALSH J, 1989, TELECOMMUNICATIO NOV WEISER M, 1991, SCI AM SEP WOUDENBERG F, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V40, P131 ZUBOFF S, 1988, AGE SMART MACHINE NR 51 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 44 IS 1 BP 69 EP 86 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LM364 UT ISI:A1993LM36400006 ER PT J AU BHARGAVA, SC KUMAR, A MUKHERJEE, A TI A STOCHASTIC CELLULAR-AUTOMATA MODEL OF INNOVATION DIFFUSION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A stochastic cellular automata model of new product diffusion is proposed. It is found that the growth for a given market potential can be determined by a parameter that quantifies chance preferences of individuals for the product and can be estimated from field surveys. It is also found that the ''takeover time'' in a given seed region is almost independent of the number of innovators. The results suggest possible strategies for the successful introduction of a new product. C1 UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DEPT COMP SCI,DELHI 110007,INDIA. UNIV DELHI,DEPT PHYS & ASTROPHYS,DELHI 110007,INDIA. RP BHARGAVA, SC, UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DEPT PHYS,DELHI 110007,INDIA. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BERLEKAMP ER, 1982, WINNING WAY BHARGAVA SC, UNPUB NUMERICAL STUD FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GREEN DG, 1990, MATH COMPUT MODEL, V13, P69 GREEN DG, 1990, MATH COMPUT MODEL, V13, P75 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARCHETTI C, 1979, CHEM ECON ENG REV, V11, P7 MARX G, 1984, GAMES NATURE PLAYS POUNDSTONE W, 1987, RECURSIVE UNIVERSE SVIREZHEV YM, 1983, STABILITY BIOL COMMU VERHULST PF, 1847, NUOV MEM ACAD ROYALE, V20, P1 VERHULST PF, 1945, NOUVEAUX MEMOIRES AC, V18, P1 VONNEUMANN J, J VONNEUMANN COLLECT, V5 VONNEUMANN J, 1966, THEORY SELF REPRODUC WOLFRAM S, 1983, REV MOD PHYS, V55, P601 WOLFRAM S, 1984, NATURE, V311, P419 NR 19 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1993 VL 44 IS 1 BP 87 EP 97 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA LM364 UT ISI:A1993LM36400007 ER PT J AU PLANT, RE TI EXPERT SYSTEMS IN AGRICULTURE AND RESOURCE-MANAGEMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; CROP MANAGEMENT; MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; KNOWLEDGE AB This paper gives a description of some representative examples of expert systems applied to problems in agriculture and biological resource management. The discussion of agricultural expert systems focuses on several decision support systems for crop management, describing the systems themselves and the implementation efforts surrounding them. The examples of the application of expert systems to biological resource management focus on the integration of expert systems with geographic information systems. A description of some of the more recent developments in agricultural expert systems, still in the prototype stage, is then given, followed by a summary discussion of possible environmental implications of the use of expert systems in agriculture and resource management. RP PLANT, RE, UNIV CALIF DAVIS,DEPT AGRON & RANGE SCI,DAVIS,CA 95616. CR AIKINS JS, 1983, ARTIF INTELL, V20, P163 BAKER DN, 1983, TECHNICAL B S CAROLI, V1089 BARRETT JR, 1989, KNOWLEDGE ENG AGR BERRY JS, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P491 BOCHEREAU L, 1992, J AGR ENG RES, V51, P207 BUCHANAN BG, 1984, RULE BASED EXPERT SY BURROUGH PA, 1986, PRINCIPLES GEOGRAPIC CAMPBELL GS, 1990, APPL REMOTE SENSING, P255 CHANDRASEKARAN B, 1984, INT J MAN MACHINE ST CHARNIAK E, 1983, P NAT C ARTIFICIAL I, P70 CLANCEY WJ, 1983, ARTIF INTELL, V20, P215 COHEN PR, 1985, HEURISTIC REASONING COLOMB RM, 1988, SIRATAC EXPERT DECIS COOK DF, 1991, AI APPLICATIONS, V5, P40 COULSON RN, 1991, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, V82, P153 DINAR A, 1988, 2ND P INT C COMP AGR, P240 FRIEDL MA, 1988, AI APPLICATIONS, V2, P17 GOODELL PB, 1990, CALIF AGR, V44, P18 GOODELL PB, 1990, P BELTWIDE COTTON PR, P100 GRIMES DW, 1987, AGR WATER MGT, V12, P293 GUERRIN F, 1991, ECOL MODEL, V59, P165 HALL DC, 1973, AM J AGR ECON, V55, P198 HAYESROTH F, 1983, BUILDING EXPERT SYST HEADLEY JC, 1972, PEST CONTROL STRATEG, P100 HEARN AB, 1989, AI APPLICATIONS, V3, P60 HUEY BA, 1990, COMPUTERIZED RICE MA IDSO SB, 1978, AGR WATER MANAGE, V1, P299 JACKSON RD, 1988, IRRIGATION SCI, V9, P309 JARVIS AM, 1990, AM J AGR ECON, V72, P1388 KRAMER M, 1987, 3 FARMS MAKING MILK LEMMON H, 1986, SCIENCE, V233, P29 LOH DK, 1991, AI APPLICATIONS, V5, P29 LOH DK, 1992, ENVIRON MANAGE, V16, P167 LOOMIS RS, 1992, CROP ECOLOGY PRODUCT MICHALSKI RS, 1985, PROGR ARTIFICIAL INT, P257 OSTEGARD MM, 1992, COMPUTERS AGR EXTENS, P676 PEDERSEN K, 1989, EXPERT SYSTEMS PROGR PLANT RE, 1986, J ECON ENTOMOL, V79, P1 PLANT RE, 1989, AGR SYST, V29, P49 PLANT RE, 1989, AGR SYST, V31, P127 PLANT RE, 1990, AI APPL NAT RES MAN, V4, P66 PLANT RE, 1991, AI APPLICATIONS, V5, P17 PLANT RE, 1991, KNOWLEDGE BASED SYST PLANT RE, 1993, MCGRAWHILL YB SCI TE PLEBAN S, 1989, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V115, P577 POPLE, 1982, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGE RAJOTTE EG, 1989, AI APPLICATIONS, V3, P72 REGGIA JA, 1984, INT J MAN MACHINE ST RIESBECK CK, 1989, INSIDE CASE BASED RE ROACH JW, 1985, EXPERT SYST, V2, P56 RUMELHART DE, 1986, PARALLEL DISTRIBUTED SAUNDERS MC, 1987, AI APPLICATIONS, V1, P13 SCOTT AC, 1984, RULE BASED EXPERT SY, P338 SHAFER G, 1976, MATH THEORY EVIDENCE SHORTLIFFE EH, 1984, RULE BASED EXPERT SY, P233 SHTEINBERG D, COMPUTERIZED EXPER S STARFIELD AM, 1989, ECOL MODEL, V46, P107 STERN VM, 1959, HILGARDIA, V29, P81 TEACH RL, 1981, COMPUTERS BIOMEDICAL, V14, P542 WEISS SM, 1978, ARTIF INTELL, V11, P145 WHITE WB, 1987, AI APPLICATIONS, V1, P49 WILSON LT, 1983, CALIF AGR, V37, P4 ZADEH LA, 1983, FUZZY SET SYST, V11, P199 NR 63 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 241 EP 257 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400003 ER PT J AU HORBULYK, TM TI INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY-RIGHTS AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PATENTS AB This paper addresses the potential role and importance of an appropriate system of intellectual property rights in sustaining innovation and technological change in agriculture, a sector where the research and development process is typically cumulative in nature. The design and use of intellectual property rights as an economic incentive is illustrated by reference to Canada's new system of Plant Breeders' Rights, and by reference to recent economic research analyzing alternative designs for such a system. RP HORBULYK, TM, UNIV CALGARY,DEPT ECON,CALGARY T2N 1N4,ALBERTA,CANADA. CR BUTLER LJ, 1985, IMPACTS PATENT PROTE COOPER P, 1984, PLANT BREEDERS RIGHT GREEN JR, 1990, 171 U CAL BERK GRAD HORBULYK TM, 1992, 134 U CALG DEP EC DI KAMIEN MI, 1982, MARKET STRUCTURE INN KAUFER E, 1989, FUNDAMENTALS PURE AP, V30 KLEMPERER P, 1990, RAND J ECON, V21, P113 LESSER W, 1988, CANADIAN J AGR EC, V36, P519 LINDNER R, 1992, IN PRESS IAAE OCCASI, V6 LOYNS RMA, 1984, EXAMINATION POTENTIA NORDHAUS WD, 1969, INVENTION GROWTH WEL PRAY CE, 1992, IN PRESS IAAE OCCASI, V6 ROSEGGER G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P81 SCHERER FM, 1977, MONOGRAPH SERIES FIN SCHOTCHMER SA, 1990, RAND J ECON, V21, P131 SCOTCHMER S, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P29 SCOTCHMER SA, 1991, UNPUB PROTECTING EAR STALLMAN JI, 1990, CHOICES, V5, P8 TANDON P, 1982, J POLITICAL EC, V90, P470 WATERSON M, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P860 NR 20 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 259 EP 270 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400004 ER PT J AU POSTLEWAIT, A PARKER, DD ZILBERMAN, D TI THE ADVENT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY AND TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER IN AGRICULTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT AGR & RESOURCE ECON,207 GIANNINI HALL,BERKELEY,CA 94720. UNIV MARYLAND,CTR PUBL ISSUES BIOTECHNOL,COLL PK,MD 20742. UNIV MARYLAND,MARYLAND COOPERAT EXTENS SERV,COLL PK,MD 20742. CR CARLTON DW, 1990, MODERN IND ORG DAVIS W, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0616 DOI R, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0711 GOLDMAN G, PRELIMINARY REPORT E HOSKINS, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0719 LEMAUX P, 1992, COMMUNICATION 0522 MARGUTH G, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0718 MATKIN GW, 1990, ACE MCMILLAN SERIES MCINTYRE M, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0715 MOFFAT AS, 1992, SCIENCE, V256, P770 PARKER D, IN PRESS AM J AGR EC PARKER D, IN PRESS INT J TECHN POSTLEWAIT A, 1991, UNPUB TECHNOLOGY TRA ROSEN S, 1974, J POLITICAL EC, V82, P34 ROSS P, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0626 RUTTAN VW, 1992, AGR RES POLICY SAVITZ EJ, 1992, BARRONS NATIONA 0601 SHAFROTH M, 1992, SAN FRANCISCO BU MAY SMITH GV, 1989, VALUATION INTELLECTU STUART J, NOUVELLES WEISENDANGER H, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0713 WHITE EP, LICENSING STRATEGY P NR 22 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 271 EP 287 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400005 ER PT J AU ABARA, IOC SINGH, S TI ETHICS AND BIASES IN TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION - THE SMALL-FARM ARGUMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID AGRICULTURE AB There seems to be a disagreement among the general public and especially among agricultural professionals regarding the usefulness of agricultural technology. Among agricultural professionals, there exists differences of opinion on the imbalances of technology adoption between small- and large-scale farms. This paper analyzes the advantages of technological change in the farm sector and its impact on rural agricultural communities. Also, it presents an expository but utterly theoretical argument with respect to biases in technology adoption between large and small farms. Agricultural technology is shown to be either physical or nonphysical. Both physical and nonphysical technologies are also shown to be variable and fixed. While variable/physical technology is shown to be scale and size neutral, fixed physical and nonphysical technologies are shown to be scale neutral but not size neutral. C1 TENNESSEE STATE UNIV,DEPT AGR SCI,NASHVILLE,TN 37203. RP ABARA, IOC, S FLORIDA A&M UNIV,DIV AGR SCI,ROOM 302C,PERRY PAIGE,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32307. CR BATIE S, 1991, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V4, P184 BATIE SS, 1989, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V4, P128 BEATTIE BR, 1985, EC PRODUCTION BERARDI GM, 1978, AGROECOSYSTEMS, V4, P367 CACEK T, 1986, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V1, P25 CHASE C, 1991, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V4, P168 COCHRANE WW, 1979, DEV AM AGR HIST ANAL CROSSON P, 1990, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V45, P34 ECKERT RD, 1988, PRICE SYSTEM RESOURC GALDWIN CH, 1988, SO J AGR EC, V20, P53 GHEBREMEDIN TG, 1985, SO J AGR EC, V17, P47 GHEBREMEDIN TG, 1988, SO J AGR EC, V20, P45 GOLDSTEIN WA, 1987, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V2, P51 HELMERS G, 1986, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V1, P153 JAMES SC, 1983, P MANAGEMENT ALTERNA, P17 LOCKERETZ W, 1978, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V33, P130 MADDEN JP, 1990, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V45, P61 MOLNAR JJ, 1985, STRATEGY SURVIVAL SM SNODGRASS MM, 1984, AGR EC GROWTH THOMPSON AA, 1985, EC FIRM THEORY PRACT NR 20 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 289 EP 300 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400006 ER PT J AU ALSTON, JM PARDEY, PG TI MARKET DISTORTIONS AND TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS IN AGRICULTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES AB It is widely believed that price policies have contributed to low rates of productivity growth in agriculture, but there has been little progress to date in work on the relationship between price distortions and agricultural productivity or agricultural research. Given the importance of technological change in agriculture, it is important to know whether price policies impede investments in R&D and productivity growth. In this article, a theoretical analysis indicates that the effects of commodity price policies on incentives of government and industry to invest in agricultural research are ambiguous. While the resullts suggest a general tendency of policies that protect producers to encourage greater research investments, the opposite result cannot be ruled out. A statistical model using international, cross-sectional, time-series data shows that agricultural research investments are significantly correlated, but negatively, with rates of producer protection. The implication is that some factor other than price policy is responsible for both the low rates of public-sector investments in agricultural research worldwide, and the low rates of productivity growth in less-developed countries. Research administrators in more- and less-developed countries alike typically consider a multiplicity of goals when setting research priorities and research budgets. Therefore, an alternative explanation of low agricultural productivity and underinvestment in agricultural research may be that public-sector research policy has been misguided. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP ALSTON, JM, UNIV CALIF DAVIS,DEPT AGR ECON,DAVIS,CA 95616. CR *FAO, 1981, EC SOC DEV PAP, V61 ALSTON JM, 1988, AM J AGR ECON, V70, P281 ALSTON JM, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P149 ALSTON JM, 1991, OCT WORLD BANK C AGR BYERLEE D, 1990, AUG AAEA ANN M VANC CRAIG BJ, 1990, P9022 U MINN DEP APP DALRYMPLE RG, 1990, METHODS DIAGNOSING R, V2, P117 ECHEVERRIA RG, 1990, METHODS DIAGNOSING R, V2, P1 FOX G, 1985, AM J AGR ECON, V67, P806 FRISVOLD GB, 1991, USDA644 EC RES SERV FULGINITI LE, 1991, UNPUB PRICES PRODUCT GARDNER BL, 1987, J POLIT ECON, V95, P290 GARDNER BL, 1988, 881 U MAR DEP AGR RE HAYAMI Y, 1971, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT KRUEGER AO, 1988, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V2, P255 MELLOR JW, 1984, J ECON LIT, V22, P531 PARDEY PG, 1991, AGR RES POLICY INT Q PARDEY PG, 1992, UNPUB INT PATTERNS A SCHULTZ TW, 1978, DISTORTIONS AGR INCE STAR S, 1974, AM ECON REV, V64, P123 SUMMERS R, 1988, REV INCOME WEALTH, V34, P1 TYERS R, 1986, DISTORTIONS WORLD FO NR 23 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 301 EP 319 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400007 ER PT J AU CASWELL, MF SHOEMAKER, RA TI MARKET EQUILIBRIUM IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper presents a model of adoption for a technology which augments the quality of a fixed, heterogeneous asset. The extent of adoption is derived and it is shown how the level of adoption is influenced by economic parameters. Aggregate conditions are developed to illustrate the indirect equilibrium effects of adoption-induced changes in supply. A numerical example is presented to show the direct and indirect effects of output and income policies on output supply, output price, input use, and agricultural sector profitability. RP CASWELL, MF, USDA,ECON RES SERV,DIV RESOURCE & TECHNOL,ROOM 508,1301 NEW YORK AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. CR *USDA, 1992, USDA ERS AR26 BEATTIE BR, 1985, EC PRODUCTION CASWEL MF, 1989, CHANGING GLOBAL ENV CASWELL MF, 1986, AM J AGR ECON, V68, P798 COCHRANE WW, 1958, FARM PRICES MYTH REA DAVID PA, 1975, TECHNICAL CHOICE INN DAVIS SW, 1979, EUROPEAN EC REV, V12, P299 KAMIEN MI, 1981, DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION REILLY JR, 1988, USDA ERS TECHNICAL B, V1740 STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA TYERS R, 1986, DISTORTION WORLD FOO NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 321 EP 335 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400008 ER PT J AU EVENSON, RE TI AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY - INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS (WITH EMPHASIS ON RICE) SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB It is well understood that the biological performance of agricultural crops is affected by soil, temperature, rainfall, and day length. As a consequence, genetic improvements in plants are location specific to a considerable extent. This, in turn, has implications for the design of agricultural research systems and for agricultural extension activities as well. An index for inter-location crop performance differences based on crop yield trial data is developed in this paper. This index measures the geo-climate ''distance'' or differential between two regions. An application to rice production, utilizing international yield trial data, is reported. The study of rice productivity in India indicates that a state or region in India benefits relatively little from rice research undertaken in another state or region when there is a significant geo-climate distance between the regions. Most technology transfer between regions is thus indirect in that it depends on the adaptive research capacity in the receiving regions. RP EVENSON, RE, YALE UNIV,DEPT ECON,CTR ECON GROWTH,BOX 1987,YALE STN,NEW HAVEN,CT 06520. CR CHANG TT, 1985, IOWA STATE J RES, V59, P425 DACRUZ ER, 1989, UNPUB RES EXTENSION DALRYMPLE DG, 1986, DEV SPREAD HIGH YIEL DAVID CC, 1990, WORKSHOP DIFFERENTIA DAVIS JS, 1987, AUSTR CTR INT AGR RE, V4 ENGLANDER SA, 1991, RES PRODUCTIVITY ASI EVENSON RE, 1968, THESIS U CHICAGO EVENSON RE, 1975, AGR RES PRODUCTIVITY EVENSON RE, 1987, 22 CONS GROUP INT AG EVENSON RE, 1989, EC IMPACTS PROCISUR EVENSON RE, 1990, AGR BIOTECHNOLOGY OP EVENSON RE, 1990, AGR GOVT INTERDEPEND EVENSON RE, 1991, EC IMPACT RICE RES B EVENSON RE, 1991, RES PRODUCTIVE ASIAN EVENSON RE, 1991, RES PRODUCTIVITY ASI EVENSON RE, 1992, OECD MONOGRAPH FEDER G, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P312 FEDER G, 1987, AM J AGR ECON, V69, P678 GOLLIN D, 1991, GENETIC RESOURCES RI GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 GRILICHES Z, 1964, AM ECON REV, V54, P961 GRILICHES Z, 1988, TECHNOLOGY ED PRODUC HARGROVE TR, 1978, IRRI18 INT RIC RES I HUFFMAN WE, 1993, SCI AGR MCGUIRK A, 1991, IFPRI87 RES REP MUNDLAK Y, 1988, AGR PRODUCTIVITY MEA NORTON GW, 1981, AM J AGR ECON, V63, P685 PARDEY PD, 1980, ISNAR AGR RES INDICA PARDEY PG, 1989, GLOBAL DATA BASE NAT PARDEY PG, 1991, AGR RES POLICY PARIKH KS, 1986, FREE TRADE AGR PRAY CE, 1991, RES PRODUCTIVITY ASI ROSEGRANT MW, 1991, 9101 INT RIC RES I S ROSEGRANT MW, 1992, AM J AGR ECON, V74, P757 NR 34 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 337 EP 351 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400009 ER PT J AU SMALE, M HEISEY, PW TI SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF SEED-FERTILIZER ADOPTION DECISIONS - AN APPLICATION TO HYBRID MAIZE IN MALAWI SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLES; EQUATION TOBIT-MODEL; AGRICULTURAL INNOVATIONS; FARM SIZE; TECHNOLOGY; RISK AB Simultaneous models are often appropriate for estimating high-yielding variety (HYV) adoption, but most empirical investigations have been based on single-equation models. Using the econometric application of a model for hybrid maize adoption in Malawi as an illustration, this paper argues that researchers investigating HYV innovations need to consider methods for estimating simultaneous censored systems. Further work with associated estimation procedures and diagnostic tests is needed to improve the measurement and prediction of seed-fertilizer adoption. C1 INT MAIZE & WHEAT IMPROVEMENT CTR,APDO POSTAL 6-641,MEXICO CITY 06600,DF,MEXICO. CR ALSTON JM, 1991, AM J AGR ECON, V73, P1171 AMEMIYA T, 1979, INT ECON REV, V20, P169 AMEMIYA T, 1981, J ECON LIT, V19, P1483 BYERLEE D, 1986, AM J AGR ECON, V68, P519 CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 FEDER G, 1980, OXFORD ECON PAP, V32, P263 FEDER G, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P94 FEDER G, 1985, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V33, P255 HECKMAN J, 1981, STRUCTURAL ANAL DISC JOHNSTON J, 1972, ECONOMETRIC METHODS JUDGE GG, 1985, THEORY PRACTICE ECON JUST RE, 1983, OXFORD ECON PAP, V35, P307 LEE LF, 1978, INT ECON REV, V19, P415 LEE LF, 1981, STRUCTURAL ANAL DISC MADDALA GS, 1976, ANN ECON SOC MEAS, V5, P525 MADDALA GS, 1983, EC SOC MONOGRAPHS, V3 MANN CK, 1978, STUDIES DEV, V21, P73 NELSON F, 1978, INT ECON REV, V19, P695 NERLOVE M, 1978, 1 NW U CTR STAT PROB ROHRBACH DD, 1988, THESIS MICHIGAN STAT RYAN JG, 1975, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, A101 SMALE M, 1991, CIMMYT9104 EC WORK P SMALE M, 1992, THESIS U MARYLAND CO SMITH RJ, 1986, ECONOMETRICA, V54, P679 NR 24 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 353 EP 368 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400010 ER PT J AU BONNIEUX, F GLOAGUEN, Y RAINELLI, P FAURE, A FAUCONNEAU, B LEBAIL, PY MAISSE, G PRUNET, P TI POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF BIOTECHNOLOGY IN AQUACULTURE - THE CASE OF GROWTH-HORMONES IN FRENCH TROUT FARMING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Against the background of rapidly increasing fish demand and stagnant or declining marine harvest, aquaculture or fish farming has assumed a major role in France which is set to expand. Trout farming in particular has already displayed considerable growth and France is the leading producer in the EEC. Biotechnology holds the key to future changes in trout culture. One such technology, which trials show has potential to reduce production costs, is recombinant trout growth hormone (rtGH). This paper sets out to perform a preliminary ex ante assessment of the possible social benefits from the adoption of rtGH by French trout producers. Several scenarios, based on possible hypotheses of supply and demand growth, are considered. Scenarios assuming an association of the technology with diversification towards more highly processed trout products display the highest estimated welfare gains. A key factor which will determine the outcome of using rtGH is its acceptance by the public. There has already been strong adverse reaction in Europe to the use of genetically engineered growth hormones in meat production and to the use of bovine somatotropin to enhance milk yields. The possibility that there might be a similar response in the case of trout is examined by considering the possibility of a sharp drop in demand. Part 1 of the paper sets out the economic and technological background to biotechnological development of trout farming in France. Part 2 undertakes an ex ante assessment of potential changes in producer and consumer surplus from the adoption of rtGH applying alternative supply and demand shifts in the framework of partial equilibrium analysis. RP BONNIEUX, F, INRA,DEPT AGR ECON,65 RUE ST BRIEUC,F-35042 RENNES,FRANCE. CR *COMM COUNC PARL, 2 COM91422 *FAO, 1991, FISH CIRC, V710 AKINO M, 1975, AM J AGR ECON, V57, P1 ASKARI H, 1977, INT ECON REV, V18, P257 BONNIEUX F, 1991, UNPUB RENTABILITE EC BONNY S, 1991, CR ACADEMIE AGR, P104 COMBRIS P, 1990, 7EME JOURN MICR APPL DUMONT P, 1986, THESIS RENNES GABRIEL R, 1990, PISCICULTURE FRANCAI HERMANN M, 1988, CANADIAN J AGR EC, V36, P459 PINSTRUPANDERSE.P, 1971, POLICIES PLANNING MA, P525 RUTTAN VW, 1982, AGR RES POLICY SCHMITZ A, 1970, AM J AGR ECON, V52, P569 TRELAWNY PM, 1989, CAN J AGR ECON, V37, P191 ZEPEDA L, 1990, W J AGR EC, V15, P55 NR 15 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY-JUN PY 1993 VL 43 IS 3-4 BP 369 EP 379 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KY874 UT ISI:A1993KY87400011 ER PT J AU GIFFORD, JL GARRISON, WL TI AIRPORTS AND THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM - FUNCTIONAL REFINEMENTS AND FUNCTIONAL DISCOVERY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper examines the technological development of the airport and the air transportation system in order to identify opportunities for increased growth and development. The paper identifies two approaches to accommodating growth, which it terms functional refinement and functional discovery. The former refers to incremental improvements, the latter to the discovery of new technological forms and functions. Functional refinements condition and frequently constrain efforts towards functional discovery. For example, efforts to advance ''demand management'' may not be beneficial for the exploration of new uses for air transportation technology. The paper examines how efforts towards functional refinement might be reoriented towards fostering functional discovery, identifies parallels between the air transportation system and other infrastructure systems, and examines how efforts towards functional refinement that lock out functional discovery run counter to powerful social pressures for flexible, specialized production. C1 UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,INST TRANSPORTAT STUDIES,BERKELEY,CA 94720. RP GIFFORD, JL, GEORGE MASON UNIV,DEPT PUBL AFFAIRS,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. CR *AIRP OP COUNC INT, 1982, REP IND TASK FORC AI *TRANSP RES BOARD, 1991, SPEC REP WINDS CHANG, V230 *US C BUDG OFF, 1983, PUBL WORKS INFR *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1984, AIRP SYST DEV ALTSHULER A, 1984, FUTURE AUTOMOBILE ARTHUR WB, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P85 ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 BHASKAR K, 1980, FUTURE WORLD MOTOR I DAVID PA, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P332 DAVID PA, 1990, EC INNOVATION NEW TE, V1, P3 DAVIES REG, 1982, AIRLINES US 1914 GOSLING GD, 1980, FEASIBILITY ANAL N B HAMIEL J, 1992, 39O TRANSP RES CIRC HAYEK FA, 1945, AM ECON REV, V35, P519 KENT RJ, 1980, SAFE SEPARATED SOARI NAKICENOVIC N, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P175 NEWHOUSE J, 1982, SPORTY GAME OTT J, 1989, AVIATION WEEK SPACE, V130, P64 PRYKE RWS, 1975, BRIT RAIL PROBLEM CA ROCHESTER SI, 1976, TAKEOFF MID CENTURY STEGGERDA P, 1984, TRANSPORTATION RES C WILKINS M, 1978, GOVT TECJHNOLOGY FUT, P221 WILSON JRM, 1979, TURBULENCE ALOFT CIV ZAHAVI Y, 1981, DOTRSPADPB107 US DEP NR 24 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1993 VL 43 IS 2 BP 103 EP 123 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KN014 UT ISI:A1993KN01400001 ER PT J AU BROWN, HS HIMMELBERGER, JJ WHITE, AL TI DEVELOPMENT-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS IN THE EXPORT OF HAZARDOUS TECHNOLOGIES - A COMPARATIVE-STUDY OF 3 MULTINATIONAL AFFILIATES IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DEVELOPING-NATIONS; BHOPAL ACCIDENT; OPPORTUNITIES; PERSPECTIVES; EMERGENCE; POLLUTION; THAILAND; LESSONS; POLICY; INDIA AB We reconstruct case histories of siting hazardous manufacturing facilities in India and Thailand by three multinational corporations: Du Pont, Occidental Chemical, and Xerox. The analysis focuses on the interactions of the host country development agenda, corporate culture, and the nature of business arrangements between parent and joint venture partner to explain decisions and tradeoffs during the siting process. The cases provide the foundation for a four-stage model of key determinants of management and regulatory actions in four phases of the facility life cycle. Six themes emerge: parent company preservation of environmental and occupational health management responsibilities; forces leading to responsible corporate behavior; downstream consequences of upstream decisions; key determinants of corporate performance; ''functional equivalency'' in practice; and hidden tradeoffs over the life cycle of the facility. Our findings are interpreted in the context of emerging concepts of corporate environmentalism and sustainable development. C1 CLARK UNIV,ENVIRONM TECHNOL & SOC PROGRAM,WORCESTER,MA 01610. TELLUS INST,RISK ANAL GRP,BOSTON,MA. RP BROWN, HS, CLARK UNIV,CTR TECHNOL ENVIRONM & DEV,16 CLAREMONT ST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. CR 1990 IND FOR ENV M I 1985, ENV ASPECTS ACTIVITI *INT LAB OFF, 1977, TRIP DECL PRINC CONC *INT LAB OFF, 1984, SAF HLTH PRACT MULT *NAT AC SCI, 1980, INT TECHN TRANSF PRO *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1989, MIN DECL AV ACC HAZ *PLANN COMM GOV IN, 1985, 7TH 5 YEAR PLAN *UN CTR TRANSN COR, 1983, NAT LEG REG REL TRAN *UN CTR TRANSN COR, 1988, ESCAP UNCTC SER B, V13 *UN CTR TRANSN COR, 1988, TRANSN CORP WORLD DE *UN CTR TRANSN COR, 1990, ESCAP UNCTC SER B, V15 *UN CTR TRANSN COR, 1991, 1991 WORLD REP *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ASHFORD NA, 1985, ECOL LAW QUART, V12, P871 AYRES RU, 1987, TECHNOL SOC, V9, P19 BOWONDER B, 1985, ENVIRONMENT, V27, P31 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P169 BOWONDER B, 1989, PROJECT APPRAISAL, V4, P182 BROWN H, 1992, CORPORATE ENV GLOBAL CASTLEMAN B, 1978, BUSINESS SOC REV, V27, P7 CASTLEMAN B, 1981, NEW SCI, V89, P522 CASTLEMAN B, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD TRANSN CASTLEMAN B, 1987, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR CASTLEMAN BI, 1979, INT J HLTH SERV, V9, P569 CHRISTENSEN SR, 1990, ASIAN SURV, V30, P178 COVELLO VT, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P159 DUERKSEN C, 1983, ENV REGULATIONS PLAN FLAHERY M, 1991, MULTINATIONAL CORP E FRIEDMAN FB, 1988, PRACTICAL GUIDE ENV GLADWIN TN, 1976, INT STUDIES MANA SPR, P160 GLADWIN TN, 1976, J INT BUSINESS S FAL, P57 GLADWIN TN, 1976, STUDIES INT ENV EC, P177 GLADWIN TN, 1977, ENV PLANNING MULTINA GLADWIN TN, 1980, MULTINATIONALS FIRE GLADWIN TN, 1985, NYU BUSINESS, V5, P17 GLADWIN TN, 1987, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR HASSAN A, 1981, INT J HLTH SERVICES, V11, P221 HIRSCH P, 1989, ASIAN SURV, V29, P439 IVES JH, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD TRANSN JASANOFF S, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P12 JASANOFF S, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P31 KASPERSON RE, 1988, CORPORATE MANAGEMENT KIRKPATRICK CH, 1984, IND STRUCTURE POLICY KNODGEN G, 1979, Z UMWELTPOLITIK, V2, P407 KORGAONKER MG, 1988, ESCAP UNCTC PUBLIC B, V13, P23 LAGADEC P, 1987, INSURING MANAGING HA LEONARD HJ, 1980, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V15, P52 LEONARD HJ, 1981, STANFORD J INT LAW, V17, P281 LEONARD HJ, 1984, ENV REGULATIONS DRIV LEONARD HJ, 1985, DIVESTING NATURES CA, P263 LEONARD HJ, 1985, ECOLOGY LAW Q, V12, P779 LEONARD HJ, 1988, POLLUTION STRUGGLE W LEPKOWSKI W, 1985, CHEM ENG NEWS, V63, P9 MARTINUSSEN J, 1988, TRANSNATIONAL CORPOR MORRELL D, 1985, DIVERTING NATURES CA NAIR RA, 1988, SYRACUSE J INT LAW C, V14, P519 PEARSON CS, 1976, UN C TRAD DEV NEW YO PEARSON CS, 1978, EENV N S PEARSON CS, 1984, DOWN BUSINESS MULTIN PIMENTA JCP, 1987, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR PINTZ W, 1987, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR RAMAKRISHNA K, 1985, ECOLOGY LAW Q, V12, P907 RAPPAPORT A, 1991, INT ENV REPORTE 0508, P261 RENN O, 1991, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V25, P1964 RICHARDSON DJ, 1976, STUDIES INT ENV EC ROYSTON MG, 1979, AMBIO, V8, P84 ROYSTON MG, 1985, ENVIRONMENT, V27, P12 ROYSTON MG, 1985, ENVIRONMENT, V27, P39 RUYABHORN P, 1988, AMBIO, V17, P230 SAMLI CA, 1985, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER SEKHAR UA, 1983, 620 WORLD BANK STAFF SHRIVASTAVA P, 1987, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SNIDVONGS K, 1982, ENV DEV ASIA PACIFIC STOEVER WA, 1989, J DEV AREAS, V23, P485 SUBRAHMANIAN KK, 1987, DEV PROCESS INDIAN E TAVIS LA, 1988, MULTINATIONAL MANAGE TUNTAWIROON N, 1985, ECOLOGIST, V15, P161 URAL E, 1987, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR WALTER I, 1982, ENV TRADE WANGWACHARAKUL V, 1988, ESCAP UNCTC PUBLIC B, V13 WANGWACHARAKUL V, 1990, ESCAP UNCTC PUBLIC B, V15 WEIR D, 1987, BHOPOL SYNDROME PEST WHITE AL, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P16 WOOLARD ES, 1989, COMMUNICATION 1212 YIN RK, 1989, CASE STUDY RES DESIG, V5 NR 86 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1993 VL 43 IS 2 BP 125 EP 155 PG 31 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KN014 UT ISI:A1993KN01400002 ER PT J AU MODIS, T TI TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTIONS IN THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Substitution among computer products is treated as a natural process amenable to a description by a logistic growth function. The Fisher-Pry model generalized by Marchetti and Nakicenovic works well for such technological transitions as Digital's PDP to VAX. Examples are given for product substitutions in the low end of the product range, the microcomputers. The most important factor which influences the rate of substitution is compatibility of software. With high compatibility a substitution goes from 20% to 80% in less than one year. With low compatibility, a new tecnnology may take up to three times as long. RP MODIS, T, DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP INT EUROPE,12 AVE MORGINES,1213 PETIT LANCY 1,GENEVA,SWITZERLAND. CR BAGWELL P, UNPUB INT J TECHNOLO FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 MARCHETTI C, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P345 MARCHETTI C, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P373 MODIS T, 1992, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V41, P111 NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, SOFTWARE PACKAGE LOG PEARL R, 1925, BIOL POPULATION GROW VERHULST PF, 1838, CORRES MATH PHYSIQUE, V10, P113 NR 8 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1993 VL 43 IS 2 BP 157 EP 167 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KN014 UT ISI:A1993KN01400003 ER PT J AU MARTINO, JP TI BAYESIAN UPDATES USING PRECURSOR EVENTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB It is common practice among technological forecasters to use precursor events to anticipate technological change. However, the information obtained from precursor events is usually qualitative in nature. A previous paper demonstrated that information about prior ''similar'' innovations can be used to generate a probability distribution of lag times between a precursor event and the event to be forecast, thus making the forecasts more quantitative. This paper presents a method for using Bayes' Equation to update probability distributions of lag time using the occurrence of additional precursor events. C1 UNIV DAYTON,RES INST,DAYTON,OH 45469. CR MARTIN JP, UNPUB TECHNOLOGICAL MARTINO JP, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC NASH JC, 1990, COMPACT NUMERICAL ME TRIBUS M, 1969, RATIONAL DESCRIPTION NR 4 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1993 VL 43 IS 2 BP 169 EP 176 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KN014 UT ISI:A1993KN01400004 ER PT J AU PETERSEN, HJS TI SUCCESSION OF TECHNOLOGIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The competition between technologies can be very complicated and involve main and by-products and more than one market. This is illustrated with the history of town gas in Denmark. Coal gas failed because coal for house heating was ousted by oil products. New town gas works using oil feedstocks ran into trouble due to competition from power plants in two markets: cooking and house heating by hot water - a by-product of electricity. Larger towns (organizations) are better equipped to defend old technology, but also less flexible to adopt new technology. RP PETERSEN, HJS, TECH UNIV DENMARK,DEPT CHEM ENGN,BLDG 229,DTH,DK-2800 LYNGBY,DENMARK. CR *BRIT PETR, 1972, GAS MAK NAT GAS HILLER M, 1989, ENCY IND CHEM A, V12 PETERSEN H, 1990, BYGAS 1950 TOWN GAS PETERSEN HJS, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P37 ROSTRUMPNIELSEN JR, 1975, STEAM REFORMING CATA NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1993 VL 43 IS 2 BP 177 EP 183 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KN014 UT ISI:A1993KN01400005 ER PT J AU HOWLAND, M TI TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE AND THE SPATIAL RESTRUCTURING OF DATA-ENTRY AND PROCESSING SERVICES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Technological change in the data entry and processing industry has profound implications for the future location and nature of industry jobs. Without specific policies, rural areas of the U.S. will be the clear jobs losers as improvements in telecommunications and imaging technologies accelerate the movement offshore of data entry. The urban-anchored firms in this industry are increasingly specialized and provide unique products designed in conjunction with clients. One implication is that these firms will remain located near urban markets and use higher-skilled labor. These activities will not filter down to rural economies. RP HOWLAND, M, UNIV MARYLAND,DEPT URBAN STUDIES & PLANNING,COLL PK,MD 20742. CR ARMBRUSTER W, 1990, J COMMERCE, V383, A4 CINELLI P, 1989, COMPUTERWORLD, V23, P65 COREY K, 1987, U WATERLOO DEP GEOGR, V29 GERTLER MS, 1988, T I BR GEOGR, V13, P419 HAMILTON JM, 1990, ENTANGLING ALLIANCES HEKMAN J, 1980, NEW ENGL ECON REV, P35 HEKMAN JS, 1980, NEW ENGL ECON REV, P5 HEKMAN JS, 1980, Q J ECON, V94, P697 HENDERSON J, 1990, GLOBALISATION HIGH T HUDSON HE, 1990, TELECOMMUNICATIO JUN, P193 KAPLINSKY R, 1984, AUTOMATION TECHNOLOG LIPIETZ A, 1982, NEW LEFT REV, V132, P33 LUDLUM DA, 1986, COMPUTERWORLD, V20, P103 PARKER EB, 1989, RURAL AM INFORMATION PELZMAN J, 1988, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V36, P753 PIORE MJ, 1984, 2ND IND DIVIDE SAYERS A, 1986, PRODUCTION WORK TERR SCHOENBERGER E, 1987, REG STUD, V21, P199 SCOTT AJ, 1988, METROPOLIS DIV LABOR STORPER M, 1984, SUNBELT SNOWBELT URB THURSTON C, 1990, J COMMERCE, V383, A4 VERNON R, 1966, Q J ECON, V80, P190 NR 22 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1993 VL 43 IS 2 BP 185 EP 196 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KN014 UT ISI:A1993KN01400006 ER PT J AU ESPOSITO, E TI TECHNOLOGY MEASUREMENT - A COMPOSITE APPROACH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TIRE CORD TEXTILES; S-CURVE; INNOVATION; PATENTS; PRODUCTS; INDUSTRY; PATTERNS; STATE; ART AB This paper introduces a new composite measurement and procedure identifying technological changes based on research carried out by the author. The paper first explores the technological innovation measurement. It outlines the points of strength and weakness related to five main classes of technological indicators: input measures, output measures, measures based on precursor events, functional measures, and structural measures. A model based on a functional description is then presented. The paper includes a test for the validity of the model in high-tech firms producing transport aircraft. The evolution of commercial transport aircraft is based on 67 important airplanes developed for commercial purposes during the period 1964-92. C1 UNIV NAPLES,FAC ENGN,DEPT COMP SCI & SYST,CTR ORG & TECHNOL INNOVAT,ODISSEO,I-80138 NAPLES,ITALY. CR 1980, BOEING 1980 OPERATIN 1990, JANES ALL WORLD AIRC *AIRB IND, 1985, AL CSN7785 *ASS EUR AIRL, 1985, AEA REP *DMS INC, 1987, MARK INT REP *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1986, OECD SCI TECHN IND *US AIR TRANSP ASS, 1967, ATA REP ALEXANDER AJ, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P161 ANTONELLI C, 1985, INDUSTRIA, V3, P379 ARCHIBUGI D, 1987, INDUSTRIA, V4, P497 ARCHIBUGI D, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P253 ARCHILLADELIS B, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P175 ARCHILLADELIS B, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P1 AYRES RU, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P229 BASBERG BL, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P131 BRANDOLESE A, 1987, FMS SISTEMI PRODUZIO CACACE N, 1970, INNOVAZIONE DEI PROD COLLINS P, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P65 DELMONTE A, 1977, INNOVAZIONE DECENTRA DODSON EN, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P129 DOSI G, 1982, PROMETHEUS, V2, P152 EDWARDS KL, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V24, P153 ESPOSITO E, 1985, 8 ATT C NAZ AIDAA, P447 ESPOSITO E, 1990, INDUSTRIA, V1, P117 FAGERBERG J, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P87 FOSTER R, 1986, INNOVATION FREY L, 1971, MISURA DIVARIO TECNO GAGLIARDI L, 1988, INDUSTRIA, V1, P75 GAMBARDELLA A, 1985, EC POLITICA IND, V45, P167 GARDINER JP, 1984, DESIGN INNOVATION LO GORDON TJ, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P1 GRAVES SB, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P13 HAY DA, 1980, IND EC THEORY EVIDEN HUGHES K, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P301 KNIGHT KE, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P107 KODAMA F, 1986, SCI PUBL POLICY, V13, P44 KODAMA F, 1989, JUN INT SEM SCI TECH LANCASTER KJ, 1966, J POLITICAL EC, V74, P132 LENZ RC, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P249 LIENHARD JH, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P251 MAJER H, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P335 MALERBA F, 1987, INDUSTRIA, V1, P67 MANSFIELD E, 1968, PROGR TECNOLOGICO DI MANSFIELD E, 1969, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARTINO JP, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P341 MERINO DN, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P275 MILLER R, 1968, TECHNICAL DEV MODERN MODIS T, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P267 NAPOLITANO G, 1989, INDUSTRIA, V4, P637 NARIN F, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P143 PATEL P, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P59 PETRONI G, 1984, TECNOLOGIA IMPRESA PORTER M, 1985, J BUSINESS STRATEGY, V3 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SAHAL D, 1984, OMEGA, V12, P153 SANTARELLI E, 1989, INDUSTRIA, V1, P25 SAVIOTTI PP, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P309 SIRILLI G, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P157 SOETE L, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P101 STEKLER HO, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P419 TEECE DJ, 1986, INDUSTRIA, V4, P605 TRIPLETT JE, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P283 NR 62 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1993 VL 43 IS 1 BP 1 EP 17 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KK834 UT ISI:A1993KK83400001 ER PT J AU MOHAPATRA, PKJ SAHA, BK TI POLICY ANALYSIS FOR GROWTH OF A NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MODEL; DIFFUSION; INNOVATION AB Three important aspects of the growth of a new technology product are new product diffusion, rise in productivity, and new product management. The authors maintain that these three aspects are interrelated. The study presented in this paper selected a system dynamics framework to address, in a unified fashion, the above-mentioned aspects of growth in the context of the TV industry in India. The study indicates that (a) in conformity to the present trend, new product diffusion should be treated as a multiattribute phenomenon, and a study of causal factors and their relationships hold the key to understanding this phenomenon, (b) contrary to the prevailing belief, new technology may not enhance capital or total productivity, particularly after the end of the major expansion phase of the product life cycle, and (c) new product growth is generally associated with a loss of market share during the major growth phase and an overcapacity at the end of this phase. Various policy tests on the model reveal that in the case of the Indian TV industry, employee skill has the highest leverage in improving company performance in terms of increased market share, increased productivity and profitability figures, and reduced overcapacity. C1 BENGAL ENGN COLL,DEPT MECH ENGN,SIBPUR,INDIA. RP MOHAPATRA, PKJ, INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,KHARAGPUR 721302,W BENGAL,INDIA. CR BARCLAY I, 1987, INNOVATION ADAPTATIO, P81 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BLACKMAN AW, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P41 BORA MC, 1982, 15 P ANN CONV OP RES CHRISTENSEN LR, 1983, NEW DEV PRODUCTIVITY DENISON E, 1962, SOURCES EC GROWTH US EILON S, 1976, APPLIED PRODUCTIVITY ENGEL JF, 1976, CORPORATE STRATEGY P, P477 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FOURT LA, 1969, J MARKETING, V25, P31 GOLD B, 1955, F PRODUCTIVITY ANAL GOLD B, 1956, ADV MANAGEMENT, V21, P9 GOLD B, 1965, OPERATIONAL RES Q, V16, P287 GOLD B, 1971, EXPLORATIONS MANAGER GOLD B, 1974, OMEGA, V1, P5 GOLD B, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE GRAHAM AK, 1985 P INT C SYST DY, V1, P331 KENDRICK JW, 1961, PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS MAHAJAN V, 1977, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V24, P12 MAHAJAN V, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1589 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MOHAPATRA PKJ, 1990, INT J MANPOWER, V11, P27 MORECROFT JDW, 1986, SYST DYNAM REV, V2, P36 NORD OC, 1963, GROWTH NEW PRODUCT E PESSEMIER EA, 1977, PRODUCT MANAGEMENT S PETERSON RA, 1978, RES MARKETING ROBERTS EB, 1987, GENERATING TECHNOLOG ROBINSON B, 1975, MANAGE SCI, V21, P1113 ROGERS EM, 1962, DIFFUSION INNOVATION ROGERS EM, 1971, COMMUNICATION INNOVA ROTHWELL R, 1987, INNOVATION ADAPTATIO SAHA B, THESIS INDIAN I TECH SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SINK DS, 1985, PRODUCTIVITY MANAGEM SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 SRIVASTAVA RK, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P325 SUMANTH DJ, 1984, PRODUCTIVITY ENG MAN UTTERBACK JM, 1975, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V3, P639 WHEELWRIGHT SC, 1989, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P112 YOSHIHIKO T, 1987, INNOVATION ADAPTATIO, P37 NR 40 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1993 VL 43 IS 1 BP 19 EP 45 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KK834 UT ISI:A1993KK83400002 ER PT J AU DATHE, JM TI DEVELOPING ACCEPTANCE STRATEGIES BASED ON A DEMAND STRUCTURE-ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MARKET AB To provide a solid basis for the planning of future industrial products, an important source of information is the subjective judgment of potential users. Inquiries should be organized-apart from conventional research -in such a manner that the subjective answers obtained are in a form that shows the essence of the demand structure in that particular area of application. The utilization shares of alternative systems are recorded in order to cross-check the demand model. An experiment carried out for communication devices demonstrates the usefulness of this approach. The assessment of the results - which includes a variance analysis of statistical data - confirms the assumption that the user shares of the different devices in practical application are a nonlinear function of product appraisal. The demand model gives the background for making forecasts on possible market shares of new products, improving systems applications, and for developing acceptance strategies. RP DATHE, JM, INDUSTRIEANLAGEN BETRIEBSGESELL MBH,W-8012 OTTOBRUNN,GERMANY. CR ROBERTS JH, 1988, MANAGE SCI, V34, P167 URBAN GL, 1983, J MARKETING RES, V20, P221 URBAN GL, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P645 URBAN GL, 1988, MANAGEMENT SCI, V34 NR 4 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1993 VL 43 IS 1 BP 47 EP 62 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KK834 UT ISI:A1993KK83400003 ER PT J AU ZHANG, WB TI KNOWLEDGE, ECONOMIC-STRUCTURE, AND GROWTH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper proposes a two-sector growth model to examine the dynamic interactional relationships between capital and knowledge. The economy consists of two production sectors-industry and service-and one knowledge production sector-research institutions and universities. The university is financially supported by the government by taxing the service and industrial sectors. We provide a compact framework for analyzing the interactions of the three sectors with a given population and a fixed preference structure of the population. The model also determines the dynamics of the price of the industrial good, the wage rate, and the interest rate. First, we guarantee the existence of equilibria and provide the stability conditions. Then, we examine the effects of changes in the government's research policy and some other parameters upon the system. RP ZHANG, WB, INST FUTURES STUDIES,HAGAGATAN 23B,BOX 6799,S-11385 STOCKHOLM,SWEDEN. CR ANDERSSON AE, 1990, DYNAMICS CONFLICT RE BECKER GS, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P12 CHENERY H, 1988, HDB DEV EC, V1 CHENERY H, 1989, HDB DEV EC, V2 ETHIER W, 1982, AM ECON REV, V72, P389 GANN DM, 1991, FUTURES, V23, P469 GERSHUNY HI, 1978, IND SOC EMERGING SEL GROSSMAN GM, 1991, REV ECON STUD, V58, P43 HARROD RF, 1939, INT EC KRAVIS I, 1983, GLOBAL ECONOMETRICS KRAVIS IB, 1982, WORLD PRODUCT INCOME LAKSHMANAN TR, 1989, ADV SPATIAL THEORY D LUCAS RE, 1988, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MORISHIMA M, 1989, RICARDOS EC GENERAL PANAGARIYA A, 1988, Q J EC AUG, P509 ROMER PM, 1986, J POLIT ECON, V94, P1002 ROMER PM, 1990, J POLITICAL EC, V98, P71 SCHULTZ TW, 1981, INVESTING PEOPLE EC STADLER GW, 1990, AM ECON REV, V80, P763 STANBACK TM, 1981, SERVICES NEW EC STOKEY NL, 1991, REV ECON STUD, V58, P63 ZHANG WB, 1989, INT J SYST SCI, V20, P311 ZHANG WB, 1990, J DEV ECON, V32, P191 ZHANG WB, 1991, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V25, P179 ZHANG WB, 1992, IND SERVICE HUMAN CA NR 25 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1993 VL 43 IS 1 BP 63 EP 74 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KK834 UT ISI:A1993KK83400004 ER PT J AU HERBIG, P GOLDEN, JE TI HOW TO KEEP THAT INNOVATIVE SPIRIT ALIVE - AN EXAMINATION OF EVOLVING INNOVATIVE HOT-SPOTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The classic American innovative hot spots are Route 128 in Massachusetts and Silicon Valley in California. Both had their starts in the mid-1950s and are now well into maturation as they approach 40 years of age. However, both are now showing signs of decline as structural disincentives inhibit entrepreneurs and make new ventures difficult. Within the United States, there are many new innovative hot spots in the formation stage. Two of the most likely up-and-comers, now in their early 20s, are Silicon Gulch in Austin, Texas, and the Research Triangle in North Carolina. In this paper we examine the factors behind the rise and decline of the classic innovation hot spots, examine the new ''maturing'' hot spots, where they are and how they are prospering, and provide recommendations on what regions of the country must do in order to have a prospering hot spot or to maintain one once it is developed. RP HERBIG, P, JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIV,COLL COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT MKT,JACKSONVILLE,AL 36265. CR 1989, ENTREPRENEURIAL SUCC, V11, P103 1991, WALL STREET J 0225, B2 BASGALL M, 1988, SCIENCE, V240, P139 BULKELEY WM, 1989, WALL STREET J 0908, A1 BULKELEY WM, 1989, WALL STREET J 0908, A16 ENGSTROM T, 1987, HIGH TECHNOL, V7, P24 FARRELL K, 1983, VENTURE SEP, P38 GALBRAITH CS, 1985, CALIF MANAGE REV, V28, P98 HAAR SV, 1988, DALLAS BUSINESS J, V128, P128 HALL P, 1985, SILICON LANDSCAPES HERBIG PA, 1991, INTRACULTURAL DIFFER HERBIG PA, 1991, KILLING GOLDEN GOOSE HUGHES J, 1989, NATIONAL REAL ESTATE, V31, P187 HUGHES J, 1989, NATIONAL REAL ESTATE, V31, P200 HUGHES J, 1989, NATIONAL REAL ESTATE, V31, P202 JOHNSTON RF, 1987, ENTREPRENEURIAL SCI JOHNSTONE B, 1990, FAR E EC REV, V148, P66 KANTER R, 1987, MANAGE REV, V76, P24 KENWARD M, 1989, SCIENTIST, V122, SP2 MARKUSEN A, 1986, HIGH TECH AM NAEGELE T, 1989, ELECTRONICS, V62, P8 OLSON J, 1990, TEXAS BUSINESS R OCT, P1 REES J, 1986, TECHNOLOGY REGIONS P RENFRO B, 1987, TEXAS BUSINESS R APR, P5 ROGERS EM, 1984, SILICON VALLEY FEVER SCHELL DW, 1983, FRONTIERS ENTREPRENE SHEETS KR, 1988, US NEWS WORLD REP, V105, P50 SMITH WG, 1990, FORTUNE, V121, P149 THOMPSON J, 1988, ELECTRONIC NEWS, V34, P1 WELTER TR, 1988, IND WEEK, V236, P26 NR 30 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1993 VL 43 IS 1 BP 75 EP 90 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KK834 UT ISI:A1993KK83400005 ER PT J AU MAHAJAN, V SHARMA, S NETEMEYER, R TI SHOULD WE EXPECT THE BALDRIGE AWARD TO PREDICT A COMPANY FINANCIAL SUCCESS - LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF EXCELLENT FIRMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB While the Baldrige Award has been dominating management thinking and behavior since the late 1980s, studies that attempted to identify determinants of corporate excellence such as In Search of Excellence dominated management thinking and behavior in the early 1980s. Based on die financial performance of excellent companies, this article explores whether we should expect the Baldrige Award to be a predictor of the financial success of a firm. The article argues that such an expectation is unjustified and calls for a longitudinal study to examine die relationship between total quality management and the financial success of a firm. C1 UNIV TEXAS,COLL BUSINESS ADM,CHAIR BUSINESS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. UNIV S CAROLINA,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. LOUISIANA STATE UNIV,BATON ROUGE,LA 70803. CR 1984, BUSINESS WEEK 1105, P76 1984, BUSINESS WEEK 1105, P88 BOWLES J, 1991, NY TIMES 0922, F13 BUZZELL RD, 1987, PIMS PRINCIPLES CHURCHILL GA, 1979, J MARKETING RES, V16, P64 FREEMAN FH, 1985, ACAD MANAGE REV, V10, P345 GARVIN DA, 1991, HARVARD BUS REV, V69, P80 KERIN RA, 1990, CONT PERSPECTIVES ST PETERS TJ, 1982, SEARCH EXCELLENCE SHARMA S, 1990, P AM MARKETING ED C SPROUT AL, 1991, FORTUNE 0211, P52 NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1992 VL 42 IS 4 BP 325 EP 334 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KG126 UT ISI:A1992KG12600001 ER PT J AU GONZALEZ, MV TI ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY, FUTURES STUDIES, AND STRATEGIC-PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DELPHI; SCENARIOS; MANAGEMENT AB An approach to strategic planning incorporating a futures study is described and applied within the context of a large insurance company. The value of futures studies to strategic planning is discussed in terms of the capability such studies provide for processing information on an uncertain environment. The expected financial performance of a division of the insurance company using the resulting strategy is empirically compared with that of the division's strategy developed with a strategy formulation process usually described in the strategy literature. The contents of both strategies are also compared. RP GONZALEZ, MV, OREGON STATE UNIV,COLL BUSINESS,CORVALLIS,OR 97331. CR AMARA R, 1975, SOME METHODS FUTURES ANDREWS KR, 1987, CONCEPT CORPORATE ST ANSOFF HI, 1975, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V18, P21 BECKER HA, 1987, FUTURES, V19, P669 BERKEY CC, 1991, J APPLIED BUSINESS R, V7, P27 CORNISH E, 1977, STUDY FUTURE DEGEUS AP, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V66, P70 EMERY FE, 1973, SOCIAL ECOLOGY CONTE ENZER S, 1978, FUTURES, V10, P227 ENZER S, 1980, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V17, P141 ENZER S, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P201 FREDERICKS P, 1988, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V29, P47 FREDRICKSON JW, 1984, ACAD MANAGE J, V27, P399 FULMER RM, 1989, J MANAGERIAL PSYCHOL, V4, P6 GODET M, 1990, FUTURES, V22, P730 GONZALEZ MV, IN PRESS RISK MANAGE GORDON TJ, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P21 HUSS WR, 1987, LONG RANGE PLANN, V20, P21 HUSS WR, 1988, INT J FORECASTING, V4, P377 LINDBLOM CE, 1959, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V19, P79 MERISTO T, 1989, EUR J OPER RES, V38, P350 MILLER D, 1983, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V4, P221 MINTZBERG H, 1990, PERSPECTIVES STRATEG MINTZBERG H, 1990, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V11, P171 MITROFF II, 1981, PHILOS MODELLING FUT NIELSON NL, 1984, 20 YEAR STRATEGIC OU NIMGADE A, 1991, R D MANAGE, V21, P11 PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG QUINN JB, 1980, STRATEGIES CHANGE RAY PK, 1990, INT J OPER PROD MAN, V10, P25 ROBESON JF, 1988, J BUSINESS LOGISTICS, V9, P1 ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P235 SCHUMACHER EF, 1973, SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL STEINER GA, 1979, STRATEGIC PLANNING VAILL PB, 1989, MANAGING PERFORMING VANDIJK JAGM, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P399 WEBLER T, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P253 WEIGELT K, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V9, P27 WOUDENBERG F, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V40, P131 ZENTNER RD, 1991, HOSP HEALTH SERV ADM, V36, P211 NR 40 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1992 VL 42 IS 4 BP 335 EP 349 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KG126 UT ISI:A1992KG12600002 ER PT J AU WAHLSTROM, B TI AVOIDING TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS - THE DILEMMA OF COMPLEXITY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Complex technological systems have been shown to carry the potential of accidents and other unwanted effects. Risk analysis has been developed as a methodology for assessing risks, but there are several difficulties in applying the methodology to low-probability, high-consequence events. The complexity of the systems makes it increasingly difficult to predict their behavior at the same time such predictions become more important. The complexity is not only due to the technical system, but also due to a similar complexity in its control structures. The complexity of the systems makes it increasingly likely that persistent risk pathogens are buried in their control structures. Such complexity can only be approached by applying multiple perspectives and many different views within these perspectives. The safety of emerging technologies should be possible to ensure with a combined approach of feed forward and feedback control, where an early assessment of possible unintended consequences is continuously updated when new operational experience is acquired. This does not, however, change the fact that the complexity of the systems always implies that the application of new technologies is a process of trial and error. C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. RP WAHLSTROM, B, TECH RES CTR FINLAND,VTT SAH,ELECT & AUTOMAT ENGN LAB,PB 34,SF-02151 ESPOO,FINLAND. CR *INT AT EN AG, 1981, US REQ DES SUPP SYST *INT AT EN AG, 1989, GOOD PRACT IMPR NUCL ARTHUR WB, 1989, ECON J, V99, P116 ASHBY WR, 1958, INTRO CYBERNETICS AYRES RU, 1988, MANUFACTURING REV, V1 AYRES RU, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V1 AYRES RU, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V2 AYRES RU, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V3 AYRES RU, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V4 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 CACCIABUE PC, 1991, PROBABILISTIC SAFETY COLLINRIDGE D, 1986, SCI SPEAKS POWER ROL DOUGHERTY EM, 1990, RELIABILITY ENG SYST, V29, P3 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE HOLLING, 1985, SCI PRAXIS COMPLEXIT LAPORTE TR, 1991, J PUBLIC ADM RES THE, V1, P1947 LINNEROOTHBAYER J, 1991, RISK ANAL, V11, P239 MEES AI, 1981, IEE P D, V128, P201 MINTZBERG H, 1979, STRUCTURING ORG PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV RANTA J, 1991, COMPUTER INTEGRATED, V5 RASMUSSEN J, 1981, COPING COMPLEXITY REASON J, 1989, NOV WORKSH SAF CONTR SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED WE STAND RED SIMON HA, 1981, SCI ARTIFICIAL SUGARMAN R, 1978, IEEE SPECTRUM TURNER A, 1978, MAN MADE DISASTERS WAHLSTROM B, 1985, NKALIT854 NORD LIAIS WAHLSTROM B, 1988, IAEA INT S FEEDBACK WAHLSTROM B, 1991, PROBABILISTIC SAFETY WEART SR, 1988, NUCLEAR FEAR HIST IM ZELENY M, 1985, SCI PRAXIS COMPLEXIT NR 32 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1992 VL 42 IS 4 BP 351 EP 365 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KG126 UT ISI:A1992KG12600003 ER PT J AU SHARIF, N TI TECHNOLOGICAL DIMENSIONS OF INTERNATIONAL-COOPERATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Just when planners in the South started to accept technological development as being central to their economic growth, the North came to realize that inappropriate use of technology threatens the future development of mankind. Clearly, both development and utilization of technology need to be managed properly. Therefore, with general environmental awareness high on the global agenda, socioeconomic planning emphasis nowadays is rightly on sustainable development. However, most suggested prescriptions for sustainable development appear as if the presently technology-controlling North is imposing its rules and restrictions upon the late-starter South, though inadvertently, without due consideration of the essential need for technological leapfrogging. It is also clear that in an increasingly technologically interdependent world, globally sustainable development certainly calls for still further advancement of technology and the promotion of international technology transactions that are economically efficient, commercially attractive, environmentally sound, and, at the same time, will lead to the realization of the principle of self-reliance for all. This paper attempts to draw attention to the current concerns regarding technology cooperation and sustainable development (both positive and negative) being expressed in the international arena; it also presents a general framework for measures necessary for developing countries' own implementation before they would be able to join the early-starter North in achieving international sustainable development. RP SHARIF, N, ASIAN INST TECHNOL,SCH MANAGEMENT,GPO BOX 2754,BANGKOK 10501,THAILAND. CR 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 1991, ENV STRATEGY EUROPE *MALAY MIN SCI TEC, 1990, IND TECHN DEV NAT PL *UN DEV PROGR, 1990, HUM RES DEV *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT CHOI HS, 1989, SPRINGBOARD MEASURES GOLOB D, 1990, ALMANAC SCI TECHNOLO LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MACEACHERN D, 1991, SAVE OUR PLANET MANSFIELD E, 1984, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER NAAR J, 1990, DESIGN LIVABLE PLANT OHMAE K, 1990, BORDERLESS WORLD POW PORTER ME, 1990, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG SHARIF MN, 1983, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOLOGY POLICY PL SHARIF MN, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32 SHARIF MN, 1988, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V15 SHARIF MN, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 SHARIF MN, 1989, TECHNOLOGY DEV SOLOW R, 1988, AM EC REV, V78 NR 20 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1992 VL 42 IS 4 BP 367 EP 383 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KG126 UT ISI:A1992KG12600004 ER PT J AU DIAMANTIDES, ND TI THE MACRODYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AS A SOCIOCULTURAL DIFFUSION PROCESS .B. APPLICATIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DETERMINANTS; EMIGRATION AB This study formulates a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push-pull forces that propel it. The model's architecture rests on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination and potential emigrants at the origin. The intensity of the ensuing migratory flow is determined by a nexus of mediators prevailing in either society and comprising (a) legal prerogatives such as migration laws, (b) economic prerogatives measured by the ratio of income per capita between destination and origin, (c) political prerogatives such as war or other forms of compulsion, (d) natural stimulants such as climatic extremes and epidemics, (e) societal conditions such as job-hierarchy differences and network characteristics, and (f) causes other than the ones motivating the pool members, such as the masons of the so-called ''brain drain.'' The mathematical entity thus constructed is named the mediating factor, and features both steady-state and transient components that are accommodated by the model. While the model's architecture is independent of any geographic or temporal specificity, the model is capable of portraying migration flow between any given origin/destination pair and over any designated historical period-this through the numerical values of the model parameters derived from the historical, demographic, and economic data of the case. Two specific paradigms of diverse nature serve to demonstrate the model's tenets and pertinence, one being Greek emigration to the United States since 1820, and the other total out-migration from Cyprus since statehood (1946). RP DIAMANTIDES, ND, KENT STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,POB 5190,KENT,OH 44242. CR 1976, 1974 STATISTICAL ABS 1985, 1984 MIN FIN DEP STA 1986, 1985 MIN FIN DEP STA 1986, EMIGRANTS CYPRUS COU 1989, WORLD BOOK ENCY, V10, P269 1990, ANN AVERAGE PRECIPIT *COL OFF, 1951, REP CYPRUS YEAR 1950 *COL OFF, 1953, REP CYPRUS YEAR 1952 *COL OFF, 1955, CYPRUS 1954 ANDREADES A, 1906, ECON J, V16, P41 CAMPBELL J, 1969, MODERN GREECE CASSAVETTI DJ, 1914, HELLAS BALKAN WARS CONSTANTINOU ST, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P352 DERTILIS G, 1985, SOCIAL CHANGE MILITA DIAMANTIDES ND, 1989, ENVIRON PLANN A, V21, P927 DINNERSTEIN L, 1975, ETHNIC AM HIST IMMIG DOUMOURAS A, 1967, ST VLADIMIRS Q, V11, P172 EVELPIDES C, 1950, EC SOCIAL HIST GREEC HALD MW, 1967, STUDY CYPRUS EC HANSEN ML, 1940, ATLANTIC MIGRATION 1 HILL G, 1952, HIST CYPRUS KOUSOULAS GD, 1974, MODERN GREECE PROFIL LAMPE JR, 1982, BALKAN EC HIST 1550 NEARCHOU V, THESIS U NOTTINGHAM OAKLEY R, 1971, THESIS OXFORD U PAPACOSMA SV, 1977, MILITARY GREEK POLIT PAPACOSMA SV, 1988, POLITICS CULTURE GRE PEPELASIS AA, 1959, J ECON THEORY, V19, P178 RODD JR, 1892, CUSTOMS LORE MODERN SALOUTOS T, 1964, GREEKS US SCURBY A, 1984, GREEK AM SMITH ML, 1973, IONIAN VISION GREECE STJOHNJONES LW, 1983, POPULATION CYPRUS TSOUKALAS C, 1981, SOCIAL DEV STATE VALAOVAS VG, 1960, MILBANK MEM FUND Q, V38, P121 VLAHOS EC, 1968, ASSIMILATION GREEKS ZIEGLER BM, 1953, IMMIGRATION AM DILEM NR 37 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1992 VL 42 IS 4 BP 385 EP 408 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KG126 UT ISI:A1992KG12600005 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI WHY IS IT SO DIFFICULT TO DO ANYTHING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, COATES & JARRATT INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1992 VL 42 IS 4 BP 413 EP 417 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA KG126 UT ISI:A1992KG12600007 ER PT J AU ZIEMER, DR TI A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO AID SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION FOR SIZING AND TIMING MARKETPLACES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION DIFFUSION-MODELS AB For organizations concerned with new product development-especially in high-tech industries-there is a continuing need to better understand the issues pertaining to the construction of scenarios to size and time marketplaces. The methodology described in this paper forms a part of a decision support system that addresses these issues. The methodology focuses on two important marketplace issues for which signatures can be tied to marketplace dynamics. The first of these has to do with answering the question, Who is the customer for the product class (P.C.) under consideration? As such it requires the user/practitioner to "think through" with the client(s) just who might be a potential customer for the P.C. being assessed. The second issue and corresponding signature are tied to the answer to the question, When will the marketplace life cycle for this P.C. undergo the transition from "emerging" to "maturing"? The response to this question is particularly important to the development of marketing strategy, which of necessity must be significantly different for these two major stages of a marketplace life cycle. The transition takes place more quickly than most clients realize. C1 TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC,DALLAS,TX 75265. CR 1988, HIGH TECHNOLOGY NOV ARMSTRONG JS, 1985, LONG RANGE FORECASTI, P500 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BLACKMAN AW, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P41 BRODY H, 1988, HIGH TECHNOLOGY SEP, P25 CHOW G, 1976, AM ECON REV, V57, P1117 CHRISTENSEN R, 1981, ENTROPY MINIMAX SOUR, V1, P201 COLEMAN J, 1957, SOCIOMETRY, V20, P253 COURTIS S, 1932, MANAGEMENT GROWTH DAVIDOW WH, 1986, MARKETING HIGH TECHN FOURT LA, 1960, J MARKETING, V25, P31 GOMPERTZ B, 1820, PHILOS T ROYAL 0629, P214 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 HENDRY I, 1972, LONG RANGE PLANN, V5, P40 LAKHANI H, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P33 LEVITT T, 1965, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN LEVITT T, 1980, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN LINSTONE H, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI MAHAJAN V, 1979, J MARKETING, V43, P55 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING RES, V27, P37 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARTINO J, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MCCLELLAN ST, 1984, COMING COMPUTER IND, P32 PEARL R, 1925, STUDIES HUMAN BIOL PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG RICHARDS FJ, 1959, J EXPT BOTANY, V10, P290 ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SANNA JM, 1985, ONSET COMPETITIVE TU SHARIF MN, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 SHARIF MN, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P301 SHOCK NW, 1942, B MATH BIOPHYS, V4, P63 VONBERTALANFFY L, 1957, Q REV BIOL, V32, P217 WASSON C, 1978, DYNAMIC COMPETITIVE ZIEMER DR, 1985, NOV ORSA TIMS C ATL NR 37 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1992 VL 42 IS 3 BP 223 EP 249 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JU481 UT ISI:A1992JU48100001 ER PT J AU PETERSON, DK MILLER, PE FISCHER, WA ZMUD, RW TI TECHNOLOGY MEASUREMENT AND THE APPRAISAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The dynamic nature of information technologies can prove troublesome to individuals given the responsibility for managing their acquisition and deployment. Not only is there a steady stream of new products, but existing products are periodically enhanced to reflect technical advances, competitors' actions, or both. The net result is that the general manager and the information systems manager alike face an overwhelming set of alternative product choices. This paper illustrates a relatively simple approach to technology measurement, a systematic procedure for assessing the state of the art of an industry. Technology measurement enables managers to better evaluate product choices. Given its generally high level of managerial awareness and interest, the microcomputer industry was selected as the vehicle for illustrating this approach to technology measurement. C1 UNIV N CAROLINA,BUSINESS ADM,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27514. RP PETERSON, DK, USAF,SCH SYST & LOGIST,INST TECHNOL,DEPT LOGIST MANAGEMENT,WRIGHT PATTERSON AFB,OH 45433. CR 1986, PC MAGAZINE, V5, P108 1987, PC MAGAZINE, V6, P189 1988, PC MAGAZINE, V7, P92 ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 DODSON EN, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P129 DRUCKER PF, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V88, P45 KNIGHT KE, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P107 LEVINSON S, 1988, INFOWORLD, V10, P47 LEVINSON S, 1988, INFOWORLD, V10, P57 LYNCH MC, 1979, WALL STREET J 0809, P1 NR 10 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1992 VL 42 IS 3 BP 251 EP 259 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JU481 UT ISI:A1992JU48100002 ER PT J AU BAKER, JG TI THE PHD LABOR-MARKET IN THE YEAR 2000 TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS AND PUBLIC-POLICY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Four Ph. D. labor market models that employ different approaches and assumptions are critically examined; they all project to varying degrees a deterioration in the relationship between new Ph.D.s and job openings around the year 2000. A key assumption in these models is the future rate of R&D spending. If R&D spending continues to grow at its current rate, it is likely that there will be intensified competition between employers for Ph.D.s driving real scientist wages up and reducing the use of Ph.D.s in some activities. Policy actions to mitigate these potential costs include increasing graduate student support, tapping into the postdoctoral pool, and increasing usage of foreign national scientists. RP BAKER, JG, OAK RIDGE INST SCI & EDUC,DIV SCI ENGN & EDUC,POB 117,OAK RIDGE,TN 37831. CR *COMM BIOM BEH RES, 1990, BIOM BEH RES SCI THE, V1 *NAT AC SCI I MED, 1990, SUMM FOR SUPP BIOM R *NAT RES COUNC OFF, 1989 SUMM REP *NAT SCI F DIV POL, 1989, FUT SCAR SCI ENG PRO *NAT SCI F NAT SCI, 1989, SCI ENG IND 1989 AEBDI J, 1987, RES HIGH EDUC, V27, P3 ATKINSON R, 1989, COMMUNICATION 0216 BAKER JG, 1989, JUN W EC ASS M LAK T BOWEN WG, 1989, PROSPECTS FACULTY AR EHRENBERG R, 1991, EC CHALLENGES HIGHER FINN MG, 1985, FOREIGN NATIONAL SCI FINN MG, 1988, ESTIMATING EMIGRATIO FORREST LR, 1989, MODEL SCI ENG PHD LA LEDERMAN LM, 1991, SCIENCE S, V251 PRESS F, 1989, 126TH ANN M NAT AC S THURGOOD DH, 1990, SUMMARY REPORT 1989 TUCKMAN H, 1990, TIME DOCTORATE NR 17 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1992 VL 42 IS 3 BP 261 EP 272 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JU481 UT ISI:A1992JU48100003 ER PT J AU DIAMANTIDES, ND TI THE MACRODYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AS A SOCIOCULTURAL DIFFUSION PROCESS .A. THEORY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DETERMINANTS; MODELS; PERSPECTIVES; EMIGRATION; MOBILITY AB This study formulates a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push-pull forces that propel it. The model's architecture rests on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination and potential emigrants at the origin. The intensity of the ensuing migratory flow is determined by a nexus of mediators prevailing in either society and comprising (a) legal prerogatives such as migration laws, (b) economic prerogatives measured by the ratio of income per capita between destination and origin, (c) political prerogatives such as war or other forms of compulsion, (d) natural stimulants such as climatic extremes and epidemics, (e) societal conditions such as job-hierarchy differences and network characteristics, and (f) causes other than the ones motivating the pool members, such as the reasons for the so-called "brain drain." The mathematical entity thus constructed is named the mediating factor, and features both steady-state and transient components that are accommodated by the model. While the model's architecture is independent of any geographic or temporal specificity, the model is capable of portraying migration flow between any given origin/destination pair and over any designated historical period-this through the numerical values of the model parameters derived from the historical, demographic, and economic data of the case. Two specific paradigms of diverse nature serve to demonstrate the model's tenets and pertinence, one being Greek emigration tot the United States since 1820, and the other total out-migration from Cyprus since statehood (1946). RP DIAMANTIDES, ND, KENT STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,POB 5190,KENT,OH 44242. CR ADAMS W, 1968, BRAIN DRAIN ALLPORT GW, 1954, NATURE PREJUDICE APPLEYARD RT, 1974, INT MIGRATION ASELTINE JA, 1958, TRANSFORM METHODS LI BEIJER G, 1969, MIGRATION, P11 BHAGWAIT JN, 1979, J DEV ECON, V1, P19 BLAU PM, 1967, AM OCCUPATIONAL STRU BOURGUIGNON FG, 1977, INT LABOUR MIGRATION CASTI J, 1983, KYBERNETES, V12, P167 CASTLES S, 1986, INT MIGR REV, V20, P761 CEBULA RJ, 1979, DETERMINANTS HUMAN M CHISWICK BR, 1982, GATEWAY US IMMIGRATI CLARK WAV, 1986, HUMAN MIGRATION CONSTANTINOU ST, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P352 DIAMANTIDES ND, 1989, ENVIRON PLANN A, V21, P927 DINNERSTEIN L, 1975, ETHNIC AM HIST IMMIG DUNLEVY JA, 1977, REV ECON STAT, V59, P137 ERICKSON C, 1957, AM IND EUROPEAN IMMI GALANOPOULOS C, 1990, ATHENA MAGAZINE, V39, P339 GALE S, 1973, ECON GEOGR, V49, P257 GALLAWAY LE, 1973, IND LABOR RELATIONS, V26, P991 GHAI YP, POPULATION DEBATE DI, V2 GINSBERG R, 1973, ENVIRON PLANN, V5, P113 GINSBERG RB, 1971, J MATH SOCIOL, V1, P233 GINSBERG RB, 1972, J MATH SOCIOL, V2, P63 GOEL NS, 1971, REF MOD PHYS, V43, P231 GREENWOOD MJ, 1970, J REGIONAL SCI, V10, P375 GREENWOOD MJ, 1975, DEMOGRAPHY, V12, P519 GREENWOOD MJ, 1975, J ECON LIT, V13, P397 HAAG G, 1983, GEOGR ANAL, V14, P270 HAGERSTRAND T, MIGRATION SWEDEN S, P27 HANSEN ML, 1940, ATLANTIC MIGRATION 1 HARRIS JR, 1970, AM ECON REV, V60, P126 HYMAN G, 1978, T I BRIT GEOGR, V3, P179 KELLS LM, 1935, ELEMENTARY DIFFERENT KORMAN G, 1967, IND IMMIGRANTS AM VI KRITZ MM, 1983, GLOBAL TRENDS MIGRAT LEE ES, 1966, DEMOGRAPHY, V3, P7 LEVY MB, 1973, REV ECON STAT, V55, P198 LUCAS REB, 1979, INT MIGRATION EC CAU MABOGUNJE AL, 1978, GEOGR ANAL, V2, P1 MAHAJAN V, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V14, P231 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MANGALAM JJ, 1970, INT MIGR REV, V4, P5 MARCHETTI C, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P345 MASSEY DS, 1987, AM J SOCIOL, V92, P1372 MASSEY DS, 1987, SCIENCE, V237, P733 MAY RM, 1976, NATURE, V261, P459 MCGINNIS R, 1968, AM SOCIOL REV, V33, P712 MITROFF II, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P267 NELSON P, 1959, J REGIONAL SCI, V1, P43 PERLOFF HS, 1960, REGIONS RESOURCES EC PETERSEN W, 1978, ANN REV SOCIOLOGY, V4, P553 PIORE MJ, 1979, BIRDS PASSAGE MIGRAN PORTES A, 1989, INT MIGR REV, V23, P606 PRYOR RJ, 1978, INTERRELATIONS INTER PRYOR RJ, 1981, GLOBAL TRENDS MIGRAT RAVENSTEIN EG, 1885, J ROYAL STATISTICAL, V48, P167 RAVENSTEIN EG, 1889, J ROYAL STATISTICAL, V52, P241 RITCHEY PN, 1976, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V2, P363 RODRIGUEZ C, 1976, BRAIN DRAIN TAXATION, V3 ROSEMAN CC, 1971, MIGRATION, V6, P589 SCHWARTZ L, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P283 SCHWIND PJ, 1975, ECON GEOGR, V51, P1 SHAW RP, 1975, MIGRATION THEORY FAC SJAASTAD LA, 1962, J POLITICAL EC S, V70, P80 SPEARE A, 1974, INT MIGRATION THOMAS B, 1975, POPULATION GROWTH EC, V2 VANDERKAMP J, 1971, J POLITICAL EC, V79, P1012 WALKER R, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P72 WOOD CH, 1982, INT MIGR REV, V16, P298 ZEMANIAN AH, 1959, Q APPL MATH, V17, P245 NR 72 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1992 VL 42 IS 3 BP 273 EP 289 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JU481 UT ISI:A1992JU48100004 ER PT J AU QAYUM, A TI INTRODUCTION OF MARKET PRICES IN SOCIALIST-COUNTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB After a sudden and swift downfall of the communist governments and their command economies, the former socialist countries are engaged in transforming their centrally planned economies into decentralized free market economies. This transformation can be brought about in one major jump or in phased stages. The first alternative involves an abrupt change from a totally state-controlled economy to a fully free market economy and is fraught with grave risks of hyperinflation, mass unemployment, depletion of foreign exchange reserves, flight of capital, and exodus of skilled workers. The other alternative may allow the formerly socialist economies to avoid extreme forms of disruption and deprivation through a gradual relaxation of state-fixed prices and wages and transfer of state-owned factories and capital assets to private ownership. It has taken a great deal of planning for the institutions of command economies to get established over the last four to six decades; it will take a good deal of planning and implementation of economic policies to displace them. RP QAYUM, A, PORTLAND STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,POB 751,PORTLAND,OR 97207. CR SCHMELER NP, 1988, SOVIET EC, V4, P320 NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1992 VL 42 IS 3 BP 291 EP 300 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JU481 UT ISI:A1992JU48100005 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI PREPARING FOR THE URBAN FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR HITCHCOCK HH, 1985, FUTURE STATE LOCAL G NR 1 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1992 VL 42 IS 3 BP 309 EP 316 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JU481 UT ISI:A1992JU48100007 ER PT J AU GOTTINGER, HW TI A DYNAMIC-MODEL OF RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT PLANNING UNDER MARKET UNCERTAINTY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB We propose an R&D project model in terms of an optimal control model in which a firm's time rate of project expenditure varies over the course of the project's time period. Assuming that it varies continuously, we then have a continuous time model of the R&D project. Two cases were considered in die model. In the first, it was assumed that the firm's decision maker had expectations in which gross profits, as ex ante random variables, had probability distributions that were unchanging over the (infinite) time horizon. In die second case, it was assumed that the probability distributions of firm's gross probabilities for production with die old and the new techniques were wen by the firm as changing (continuously) over its time horizon. Conclusions in this respect are (a) the greater the rate of increase in the firm's profit risk for the new techniques over its time horizon, the lower the planned rate of project spending throughout the project period and (b) the greater the rate of increase in profit risk for the old technique over its time horizon, the greater the rate of spending throughout the project period. C1 UNIV MAASTRICHT,MANAGEMENT SCI,MAASTRICHT,NETHERLANDS. FROUNHOFER INST TECHNOL FORECASTING,EUSKIRCHEN BONN,GERMANY. CR DASGUPTA P, 1980, BELL J ECON, P1 KAMIEN MI, 1974, ANN ECON SOC MEAS, V3, P267 KAMIEN MI, 1981, DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION SCHERER FM, 1967, Q J ECON, V81, P359 NR 4 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1992 VL 42 IS 2 BP 107 EP 119 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JL333 UT ISI:A1992JL33300002 ER PT J AU MARTINO, JP TI PROBABILISTIC TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTS USING PRECURSOR EVENTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A critical issue in avoiding technological surprise is to identify new technologies which present threats or opportunities at an early stage in their development. Currently, technological forecasters use the method of precursors to provide this early identification. However, the information provided by the method of precursors is purely qualitative. This paper describes the use of the method of maximum entropy for generating a probability distribution for the time lag between demonstration of a device and its market introduction. Examples from the aerospace and automotive industries are used to illustrate the technique. RP MARTINO, JP, UNIV DAYTON,RES INST,300 COLL PK DR,DAYTON,OH 45469. CR MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MARTINO JP, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P341 MITCHELL J, 1991, WALL STREET J 0301 NAJ AK, 1991, WALL STREET J 0222 NASH JC, 1990, COMPACT NUMERICAL ME TRIBUS M, 1969, RATIONAL DESCRIPTION NR 6 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1992 VL 42 IS 2 BP 121 EP 131 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JL333 UT ISI:A1992JL33300003 ER PT J AU RAPPA, MA DEBACKERE, K GARUD, R TI TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS AND THE DURATION OF CONTRIBUTION SPANS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DELPHI AB This study uses the scientific and patent literature as a source of data to analyze the relationship between author/inventor contribution spans and the rate of technological progress in two chemical fields. Using survival analysis statistics, the authors examine the probability that an individual will contribute to the field for a specified length of time and the probability that an individual, having contributed to the field for a specified period of time, will cease to contribute in the future. The authors also test the significance of several covariates in predicting the length of contribution spans. C1 STATE UNIV GHENT,VLERICK SCH,B-9000 GENT,BELGIUM. NYU,STERN SCH,NEW YORK,NY 10003. RP RAPPA, MA, MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,E52-538,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. CR ALLISON PD, 1984, EVENT HIST ANAL REGR BRAUN E, 1978, REVOLUTION MINIATURE EINHORN HJ, 1978, PSYCHOL REV, V85, P395 ELANDTJOHNSON RC, 1980, SURVIVAL MODELS DATA GIRIFALCO L, 1991, DYNAMICS TECHNOLOGIC HOGARTH RM, 1981, MANAGE SCI, V27, P115 KALBFLEISCH JD, 1980, STATISTICAL ANAL FAI LANCASTER T, 1990, ECONOMETRIC ANAL TRA LATOUR B, 1982, SCI CONTEXT MARTINO J, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MCMILLAN FM, 1979, CHAIN STRAIGHTENERS MORRIS PJT, 1989, AM SYNTHETIC RUBBER RAPPA MA, 1992, IN PRESS RD MANAGEME, P22 ROSENBLOOM RS, 1987, CALIF MANAGE REV, V29, P51 ROWE G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P235 SCHNAARS SP, 1989, MEGAMISTAKES MYTH RA SICILIA DB, 1990, INVENTION TECHNO SPR, P45 SMITH DK, 1988, FUMBLING FUTURE XERO WEBLER T, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P253 NR 19 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1992 VL 42 IS 2 BP 133 EP 145 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JL333 UT ISI:A1992JL33300004 ER PT J AU ROBINSON, JB TI OF MAPS AND TERRITORIES - THE USE AND ABUSE OF SOCIOECONOMIC MODELING IN SUPPORT OF DECISION-MAKING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID ENERGY-POLICY; SCIENCE; FRAMEWORK AB While the need for better data and models to support environmental decision making is generally recognized, the need for new approaches to how those data and models are used in the policy-making process has received less attention. Yet the relationship between analysis and policy is often characterized by problems of misunderstanding and mistrust between analysts and decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of socioeconomic models in forecasting and decision making about environmental problems, and to suggest ways in which such models can be developed and used so as to increase the chance of their playing not only a scientifically but also a politically useful and desirable role. C1 UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,DEPT GEOG,VANCOUVER V6T 1Z2,BC,CANADA. RP ROBINSON, JB, UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,SUSTAINABLE DEV RES INST,HUT B5,2202 MAIN MALL,VANCOUVER V6T 1Z2,BC,CANADA. CR *ONT HYDR, 1985, M FUT EN NEEDS IN R *ONT HYDR, 1986, 652SP REP *ONT HYDR, 1989, PROV BAL POW DEM SUP *ONT HYDR, 1989, UNC LOAD FOR SUMM RE *ONT HYDR, 1992, PROV BAL POW UPD ASCHER W, 1990, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P469 BAUMGARTNER T, 1987, POLITICS ENERGY FORE BREWER G, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS CAPUTO R, 1984, FUTURES, V16, P233 DUINKER P, 1987, POLICY EXERCISES ADD GAL F, 1987, FUTURES, V19, P678 GLIMEL H, 1987, FUTURES, V19, P635 GREENBERGER M, 1976, MODELS POLICY PROCES GREENBERGER M, 1987, POLITICS ENERGY FORE HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM JANTSCH E, 1967, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA LEISS W, 1989, PROSPECTS PROBLEMS R LONGINO HE, 1983, INQUIRY, V26, P85 MEADOWS D, 1982, GROPING DARK 1ST DEC MEADOWS D, 1985, ELECTRONIC ORACLE CO MURDOCK J, 1991, SELECTED OVERVIEW RE OTWAY H, 1987, RISK ANAL, V7, P125 PRIMACK J, 1974, ADVICE DISSENT SCI P RAVETZ J, 1989, KNOWLEDGE, V9, P7 RAYNER S, 1987, RISK ANAL, V7, P3 RESTIVO S, 1988, SOC PROBL, V35, P206 ROBINSON J, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P229 ROBINSON J, 1988, EMERGING TECHNOLOGIE ROBINSON J, 1988, ENERGY POLICY FEB, P58 ROBINSON J, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P325 ROBINSON J, 1990, ALTERNATIVES, V17, P36 ROBINSON J, 1990, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P485 ROBINSON J, 1990, JUL ANN C INT SOC AS ROBINSON J, 1991, ASKING WRONG QUESTIO ROBINSON J, 1991, CHOICE UNCERTAINTY C ROBINSON J, 1991, JUN IEEE C PREP SUST ROBINSON JB, 1982, POLICY SCI, V15, P23 ROBINSON JB, 1990, FUTURES, V22, P820 ROBINSON JB, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V130, P629 SALTER L, 1988, MANDATED SCI SCI SCI SONNTAG N, 1982, REV EVALUATION ADAPT SONNTAG N, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS THOMPSON M, 1984, POLICY SCI, V17, P321 TOTH F, 1986, WP8623 INT I APPL SY WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P139 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P72 WEINBERG AM, 1972, MINERVA, V10, P209 WYNNE B, 1984, POLICY SCI, V17, P277 WYNNE B, 1987, RISK MANAGEMENT HAZA NR 49 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1992 VL 42 IS 2 BP 147 EP 164 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JL333 UT ISI:A1992JL33300005 ER PT J AU SUTHERLAND, JW TI A TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ON STRATEGIC PROJECTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In the strategic domain, technological forecasting activities will have to be undertaken in light of the expected scarcity of objective data or empirical predicates. This is because "strategic" technical innovations will always be qualitatively disparate-different in kind-from anything seen in the past. As a result, strategic projection procedures must be able to comprehend cases where there is a revolutionary dynamic at work. This has the effect of putting strategic-level technological forecasting well beyond the reach of the extrapolative statistical-inference instruments that can serve us so well in contexts where only minor (magnitudinal) changes are possible. Nor can ampliative inductive inference-based techniques adequately answer for the strategic projection challenge, as they are appropriate only when there is an evolutionary (vs. revolutionary) dynamic in operation. Rather, properly conducted strategic projection exercises will be concept-driven vs. data-driven, concerned more with possibilities than probabilities, and so ultimately owe more to conjecture than computation. Most members of the scholarly community have long recognized the need for strategic planning-projection exercises to have this sort of general technical orientation. Yet there remains much more work to be done in terms of specifying exactly what types of procedures and instruments might underlie real world strategic projection protocols. The primary purpose of this paper is to offer some suggestions along these lines. But there is also a subsidiary purpose of perhaps even more immediate moment: To point out the perils that lie in wait for those who fail to recognize the inappropriateness of traditional techniques for strategic-level planning-projection activities. Sadly, it appears that a good many members of the American managerial corps would have to be counted among those who fail to appreciate this critical caution. And this can be posed as one of the of the primary reasons for die gradual dampening of both the rate and weight of technological progress in the United States. RP SUTHERLAND, JW, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,BOX 4000,1015 FLOYD AVE,RICHMOND,VA 23284. CR AAKER D, 1984, J BUSINESS STRATEGY, V5 ARCHIBUGI D, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34 CLEMENT J, 1988, COGNITIVE SCI OCT DROR Y, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 EMERY F, 1965, HUMAN RELATIONS, V18 GORDON TJ, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 LINSTONE H, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34 LINSTONE H, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 MARUYAMA M, 1963, AM SCI, V51 MARUYAMA M, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V29 MEADE N, 1985, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V36 MICHEL AN, 1977, QUALITATIVE ANAL LAR MOHAPATRA P, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 RAZ B, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33 STERNBERG RJ, 1977, INTELLIGENCE INFORMA SUTHERLAND J, 1978, MANAGEMENT HDB PUBLI SUTHERLAND J, 1978, SOC SYSTEMS SUTHERLAND J, 1988, IEEE T SYSTEMS MAN C, V18 SUTHERLAND J, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34 SUTHERLAND J, 1989, IEEE T SYSTEMS MAN C, V20 SUTHERLAND J, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT SUTHERLAND J, 1990, THEOR DECIS, V28, P29 SUTHERLAND J, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V40, P329 TAYLOR G, 1973, RETHINK PARAPRIMITIV NR 24 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1992 VL 42 IS 2 BP 165 EP 191 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JL333 UT ISI:A1992JL33300006 ER PT J AU HAUPTMAN, O POPE, SL TI THE PROCESS OF APPLIED TECHNOLOGY-FORECASTING - A STUDY OF EXECUTIVE ANALYSIS, ANTICIPATION, AND PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DECISION-MAKING; INNOVATION; FUTURE AB The objective of this research is a study of technology forecasting not only as a discipline but also as an executive responsibility by applying the information processing theory to this task. A protocol analysis from Ericsson and Simon, modified for this study, was used for the analysis of interview data of top executives from die magnetic resonance imaging industry and their superconducting magnet suppliers, when they had to face a specific technological event. The technological event is the breakthrough discovery of ceramic superconducting materials in 1986, and the fast technological progress that followed between 1987 and 1989. This paper illustrates the processes through which senior executives collect information, process it, and develop plans and predictions in the context of "hard" uncertainty. We use cognitive and strategic decision-making research to develop a normative typology of executive decision making in similar contexts. C1 PUTNAM HAYES & BARTLETT INC,BOSTON,MA. RP HAUPTMAN, O, HARVARD UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,DEPT PROD OPERAT MANAGEMENT,SOLDIERS FIELD,BOSTON,MA 02163. CR ABERNATHY WJ, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P3 ADELSON M, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36, P21 ALLEN TJ, 1988, MANAGING FLOW TECHNO AMARA R, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P43 ASCHER W, 1978, FORECASTING APPRAISA AYRES RU, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P49 BARNARD CI, 1982, FUNCTIONS EXECUTIVE BOWER JL, 1970, MANAGING RESOURCE AL BRIGHT JR, 1972, RES MANAGEMENT JUL, P50 BRIGHT JR, 1978, PRACTICAL TECHNOLOGY BRIGHT JR, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V29, P1 CETRON MJ, 1969, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI CLARK KB, 1991, PRODUCT DEV PERFORMA CONSTANT EW, 1988, ORIGINS TURBOJET REV COOPER A, 1976, BUSINESS HORIZON FEB, P32 DEARBORN DC, 1958, SOCIOMETRY, V21, P140 DROR Y, 1986, PLANNING TURBULENCE DROR Y, 1990, JERUSALEM J INT RELA, V12, P1 DUTTON JE, 1987, ACAD MANAGE REV, V12, P76 ERICSSON KA, 1984, PROTOCOL ANAL FOSTER R, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS FUSFELD AR, 1978, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI GALBRAITH JR, 1973, DESIGNING COMPLEX OR GORDON TJ, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36, P27 HAUPTMAN O, 1991, 92054 HARV BUS SCH W HELMER O, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P39 HENDERSON RM, 1990, ADMIN SCI QUART, V35, P9 ISENBERG DJ, 1986, ACAD MANAGE J, V29, P775 JOHNSONLAIRD PN, 1988, COMPUTER MIND INTRO KAUFMANN G, 1988, INNOVATION CROSS DIS, P87 KOTLER P, 1988, MARKETING MANAGEMENT LENZ RT, 1986, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V7, P69 LINSTONE HA, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P1 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1979, J ROYAL STATISTI A 2, V142, P97 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1982, HDB FORECASTING MANA MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGY FORECASTI MCGEE J, 1986, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V7, P141 MILLETT SM, 1991, MANAGERS GUIDE TECHN MINTZBERG H, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P246 MOKYR J, 1991, LEVER RICHES NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG PORTER ME, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P149 PRAHALAD CK, 1990, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P79 REINGANUM J, 1981, J ECON THEORY, V25, P21 ROBERTS EB, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P113 ROSENBLOOM RS, 1987, CALIF MANAGE REV, V29, P51 SIMMONDS WHC, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P61 SIMON HA, 1979, AM ECON REV, V69, P493 SIMON HA, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P35 STREUFERT S, 1986, COMPLEXITY MANAGERS TUSHMAN ML, 1978, ACAD MANAGE REV, V3, P613 TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 UTTERBACK JM, 1972, BUS HORIZONS, V15, P5 VANCIL RF, 1970, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P98 VANDEVEN AH, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P590 VONGLINOW MA, 1990, MANAGING COMPLEXITY VONHIPPEL E, SOURCES INNOVATION WALSH JP, 1988, ACAD MANAGE J, V31, P57 NR 60 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1992 VL 42 IS 2 BP 193 EP 211 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JL333 UT ISI:A1992JL33300007 ER PT J AU GORDON, TJ TI CHAOS IN SOCIAL-SYSTEMS .3. SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Dynamic systems that have nonlinear elements can exhibit stable, oscillatory, divergent, or chaotic behavior. In many instances the behavior of such systems is surprising and counterintuitive. Most work in the field of chaos has focused on physical, mechanical, or electronic systems; here we examine three examples of nonlinear social systems. One example is drawn from education, one from advertising, and one from economics of technology growth. It may well be that most social systems are nonlinear in some regime and can therefore be excited into chaotic behavior. In any event, by recognizing the possibility of chaos in social systems, public and corporate policies can be better informed and directed toward desired ends. RP GORDON, TJ, FUTURES GRP INC,80 GLASTONBURY BLVD,GLASTONBURY,CT 06033. CR GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GORDON TJ, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P337 NR 2 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1992 VL 42 IS 1 BP 1 EP 15 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JF379 UT ISI:A1992JF37900001 ER PT J AU YIN, JZS TI TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES AS DETERMINANTS OF THE SUCCESS OF TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER PROJECTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID COUNTRIES AB This paper empirically examines the effect of indigenous technological capability (ITC) on the performance of technology transfer projects in recipient firms in a less developed country (LDC). The data were obtained from 116 transfer projects in China by means of questionnaires and site interviews. As predicted, the results indicated that ITC factors are determinants of the economic and technological success of the transfer projects. The findings suggest that LDC recipient firms should formulate a strategy for acquiring foreign technology to be consistent with their technological capability. RP YIN, JZS, SETON HALL UNIV,STILLMAN SCH BUSINESS,DEPT MANAGEMENT,S ORANGE,NJ 07079. CR *UNIDO, 1979, GUID EV TRANSF TECHN *UNIDO, 1979, STRENGTH TECHN CAP D *WORLD BANK, 1990, CHIN COUNTR EC MEM P AHIAKPOR JCW, 1989, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V37, P557 ARROW K, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P166 CHIANG JT, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P339 CHOI HS, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P209 COHEN J, 1983, APPLIED MULTIPLE REG CONTRACTOR FJ, 1981, INT TECHNOLOGY TRANS CONTRACTOR FJ, 1985, LICENSING INT STRATE DAHLMAN CJ, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABI DUTTON JM, 1985, RES TECHNOLOGY INNOV, V2 KELLER R, 1990, EXECUTIVE, V4, P33 KING K, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABI MADU CN, 1989, LONG RANGE PLANN, V22, P115 MADU CN, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P327 MANSFIELD E, 1974, RES MANAGEMENT JAN, P711 MANSFIELD E, 1982, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER MCDONALD DW, 1985, RES MANAGEMENT JAN, P35 PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY PUGEL TA, 1981, RES INT BUSINESS FIN, V2 ROBINSON RD, 1988, INT TRANSFER TECHNOL ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL ROSENBERG N, 1985, INT TECHNOLOGY TRANS SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SHARIF M, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V35, P201 SIMON DF, 1986, CHINAS EC LOOKS YEAR SOLO RA, 1972, INDUCING TECHNOLOGIC STEWART F, 1979, INT TECHNOLOGY TRANS STEWART F, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABI TEECE D, 1976, MULTINATIONAL CORPOR TILTON JE, 1971, INT DIFFUSION TECHNO WANG X, 1987, OUTLOOK, V15, P13 NR 33 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1992 VL 42 IS 1 BP 17 EP 29 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JF379 UT ISI:A1992JF37900002 ER PT J AU MASON, JH TI INNOVATION IN PROFESSIONAL SERVICES - POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY AND TRADE IMPROVEMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Professional services are a special class of services that are becoming increasingly prevalent in the US economy and are representing an increasing share of service exports. Information-based service firms and employees are the prototype firms of the future and present unique opportunities for improving work-force productivity and service exports. The benefits of innovation in professional services include greater productivity in existing services and creation of new service markets. Service firm employees, organization, processes, technology, and market links all offer opportunities for innovation. Many product innovation concepts apply to professional service innovation; however, some unique challenges and opportunities arise. RP MASON, JH, TENERA LP,1 COPLEY PKWY,SUITE 216,MORRISVILLE,NC 27560. CR 1988, GENERAL MOTORS ANN R, P19 1989, SURVEY CURR BUS, P56 BLOOM PN, 1984, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP CARNEVALE AP, 1988, LEARNING ENTERPRISE, P43 CLEVELAND H, 1982, FUTURIST DEC DUCHIN F, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES, P76 GUILE BR, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P323 JOHNSON WB, 1987, WORKFORCE 2000, R22 LANGDALE JV, 1989, TELECOMMUN POLICY, V13, P203 MAISTER D, 1982, SLOAN MANAGEMENT FAL, P15 MAISTER DH, 1985, SLOAN MANAGEMENT FAL NASAR S, 1989, FORTUNE 0605 QUINN JB, 1987, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR QUINN JB, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P330 QUINN JB, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P413 QUINN JB, 1989, ISSUES SIC TECHN SUM ROACH SS, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P387 ROBERTS EB, 1981, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V22, P19 ROBERTS EB, 1988, RES TECHNOLOGY MANAG, V31, P18 SAMUEL RA, 1989, SLOAN MANAGEMENT SPR SHOSTACK GL, 1984, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN SOUBRA Y, 1989, J WORLD TRADE FEB, P97 SOUDER WE, 1988, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V5, P6 SWYT DA, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P231 SYKES HB, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY THOMAS DRE, 1978, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL UTTERBACK JM, 1974, SCIENCE, V183, P620 VANDOREN DC, 1987, J SERVICES MARKETING, V1, P67 VONHIPPEL E, 1978, TECHNOLOGY REV JAN, P30 VONHIPPEL EA, 1986, MANAGEMENT SCI JUL WEBSTER C, 1987, J PROFESSIONAL SERVI, V2, P11 WHICHARD OG, 1988, INT SERVICES NEW INF, P27 WORK CP, 1989, US NEWS WORLD R 1106 NR 33 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1992 VL 42 IS 1 BP 31 EP 45 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JF379 UT ISI:A1992JF37900003 ER PT J AU HARADEN, J TI THE MARKET PENETRATION OF MAGMA POWER FROM THE LONG VALLEY MAGMA BODY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Magma is molten rock and magma power is the production of electricity from shallow magma bodies in the crust of the earth. Although the technology for producing the power is speculative, researchers at Sandia National Laboratories are addressing all the scientific and engineering problems. Solutions may exist to all of these problems within the next five years. Limited amounts of experimental power from magma may then be sold before the turn of the century. In this paper, we model the market penetration for the potential power from the magma body at Long Valley, California. C1 UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO,LA JOLLA,CA 92093. CR 1990, MOODYS HDB COMMON ST *EPRI PLANN STAFF, 1979, PS1201SR REP ANDERSON D, 1988, GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES, V17, P22 AVERCH H, 1962, AM ECON REV, V52, P1052 BAILEY NTJ, 1950, BIOMETRIKA, V37, P193 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BLACKMAN AW, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI BLAIR PD, 1982, GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IN CARSON CC, 1985, SAND842171 SAND NAT COLP JL, 1982, SAND822377 SAND NAT COREY RG, 1971, BELL J ECON, V2, P358 CREWDSON RA, 1991, MAGMA ENERGY EVALUAT DUNN JC, 1988, GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES, V17, P3 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 HARADEN J, IN PRESS ENERGY INT HARADEN J, 1985, 850501 WELL PROD TES HARADEN J, 1985, GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES, V9, P317 HARADEN J, 1989, ENERGY, V14, P333 HARADEN J, 1991, THESIS U CALIFORNIA HARDEE HC, 1981, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V8, P1211 HARDEE HC, 1984, SAND831361 SAND NAT HASKEY HW, 1954, BIOMETRIKA, V41, P272 HENNEBERGER T, 1990, EPRI J APR, P24 HICKOX CE, 1985, GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES, V9, P319 KEELIN TW, 1984, EA3913SR EPRI REP KESTIN J, 1980, SOURCEBOOK PRODUCTIO KYDES AS, 1983, ENERGY MODELING SIMU LENZ RC, 1972, BUS HORIZONS, V15, P63 LOFNESS RL, 1984, ENERGY HDB MANSFIELD E, 1960, J ROYAL STATISTICAL, V22, P332 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MUFFLER L, 1979, ASSESSMENT GEOTHERMA PECK SC, 1977, THESIS U CALIFORNIA ROMEO AA, 1975, REV ECON STAT, V57, P311 RUNDLE JB, 1986, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V67, P490 SANDERS CO, 1984, J GEOPHYS RES, V89, P8287 NR 36 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1992 VL 42 IS 1 BP 47 EP 61 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JF379 UT ISI:A1992JF37900004 ER PT J AU CHOWDHURY, S SAHU, KC TI A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR THE INDIAN OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION EXPLOITATION INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A system dynamics model has been developed to study the long-term dynamic behavior of the Indian oil and gas exploration/exploitation industry. The dynamics of finite and nonrenewable fossil fuel resources are portrayed in the model and are linked with the financial sector. The credibility of the model has been enhanced through model validation. Model-generated projections were compared with the projections made by the industry and the Indian government and found satisfactory in both trend and values. Sensitive parameters are identified through "what-if" tests. The effect of important variables on the model has been studied in order to choose alternative policies. The expected behavior of the model has been analyzed under a standard run and under changed conditions. Perhaps the most striking relevation of the study is that oil production will start declining after attaining a peak of 39.5 million tons during 1994-96. Similarly, gas production will start falling after reaching a peak of 25.1 billion cubic meters during 1997-99. India will face a difficult situation. Alternative policies, if adopted, will mitigate the oil crisis to some extent in the short term, but will be unable to contain growing demand and the consequent imports in the long run. C1 INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,KHARAGPUR 721302,W BENGAL,INDIA. OIL & NAT GAS COMMISS,CALCUTTA,INDIA. CR BORA MC, 1985, DYMOSIM USERS MANUAL CHOWDHURY S, 1980, THESIS INDIAN I TECH FORRESTER JW, 1961, IND DYNAMICS FORRESTER JW, 1973, MIT D1969 WORK PAP FORRESTER JW, 1980, TIMS STUDIES MANAGEM, V14, P61 MOHAPATRA PKJ, 1985, SYSTEM DYNAMICS REV, V1 SOMMER M, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P263 TALVAGE JJ, 1980, SYSTEM DYNAMICS NR 8 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1992 VL 42 IS 1 BP 63 EP 83 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA JF379 UT ISI:A1992JF37900005 ER PT J AU HILL, CT TI NEW MANUFACTURING PARADIGMS - NEW MANUFACTURING POLICIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Mass production has contributed to American prosperity and made available a host of inexpensive products for consumers, industry, and government. Today, however, new paradigms of production are causing revolutionary changes in how managers, engineers, and workers think about making things. This paper describes the main features of "old-era" and "new-era" industrialization and shows how key public policies designed with the old paradigms in mind need to be changed in view of the new. C1 NATL ACAD SCI,WASHINGTON,DC 20418. RP HILL, CT, NATL ACAD ENGN,MFG FORUM,2101 CONSTITUT AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20148. CR 1979, PRESIDENTS INDUSTRIA *COUNC COMP, 1989, PICK UP PAC *COUNC COMP, 1991, GAIN NEW GROUND *MA I TECHN COMM 1, 1989, MAD AM REG PROD EDG *PC IND COMP, 1985, GLOB COMP NEW REAL *US C, 1990, MAK THINGS BETT COMP *US PAN INV INN, 1967, TECHN INV ITS ENV MA ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA HAMILTON A, 1982, UNPUB SECRETARY TREA, P82 HILL CT, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA NELKIN D, 1971, POLITICS HOUSING INN PETERSON PG, 1987, ATLANTIC, V260, P43 WOMACK J, 1990, MACHINE CHANGED WORL NR 13 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1992 VL 41 IS 4 BP 351 EP 363 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HW291 UT ISI:A1992HW29100001 ER PT J AU CHIANG, JT TI TECHNOLOGICAL SPIN-OFF - ITS MECHANISMS AND NATIONAL CONTEXTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article seeks strategic implications of spin-off from mission-oriented-in particular, defense-related-technology programs. Because the United States has unmatched military technological capabilities, the article first focuses on the US experience. To understand how a country's size, development stage, and economic system may affect technological spin-off, the experiences of Sweden, Israel, and the USSR are briefly examined. These three countries have all committed huge national resources to military R&D and have achieved high technological levels. By investigating several fields-in particular, semiconductors, computers, nuclear power, aircraft, and systems technology-the paper identifies three critical mechanisms as well as two increasingly unfavorable trends in the US context. Using perspectives relating to the characteristics of technology, several rules to grapple with the logic of spin-off are suggested. But most other countries could not expect such a significant contribution from spin-off as the United States. Small countries usually have no slack to promote spin-off. Developing countries may benefit from spin-off when their civilian industry is relatively underdeveloped while military technology, mainly introduced from abroad, is rather advanced. In centrally planned economies, spin-off tends to be distorted or stymied for lack of a vigorous market-oriented civilian industry to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. RP CHIANG, JT, NATL TAIWAN UNIV,COLL MANAGEMENT,TAIPEI,TAIWAN. CR *SWED FOR MIN, 1989, SOU102 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1988, ADV MAT DES *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1989, HOLD EDG MAINT DEF T *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1990, MAK THINGS BETT COMP AYRES RU, 1988, OCT HARV U KENN SCH BRAUN E, 1982, REVOLUTION MINIATURE BROWER K, 1986, INT DEFENSE REV JUL, P907 BURNETT WB, 1990, STRUCTURE AM IND CHIANG JT, 1990, TECHNOL SOC, V12, P397 CHIANG JT, 1991, TECHNOL SOC, V13, P279 DALLMEYER DG, 1987, TECHNOLOGY REV NOV, P47 DALUM B, 1988, SMALL COUNTRIES FACI DEGRASSE RW, 1983, MILITARY EXPANSION E DERTOUZOS ML, 1989, MADE AM REGAINING PR DONALD D, 1987, AIRCRAFT US AIR FORC FELDMAN EJ, 1985, CONCORDE DISSENT EXP FLAMM K, 1987, TARGETING COMPUTER G FREEMAN C, 1982, EC IND INNOVATION GRANSTRAND O, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P35 GULLSTRAND T, 1987, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V2, P199 HEWISH M, 1987, INT DEFENSE REV JUL, P901 HOLMSTROEM P, 1983, STRUCTURE DEFENSE IN HORWITCH M, 1982, CLIPPED WINGS JUSTMAN M, 1988, SMALL COUNTRIES FACI KORTHALSALTES SW, 1987, TECHNOLOGY REV JAN, P43 MISA TJ, 1985, MILITARY ENTERPRISE MODER JJ, 1983, PROJECT MANAGEMENT C MOON H, 1989, SOVIET SST TECHNOPOL MOWERY DC, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR NELSON RR, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P117 NOBLE DF, 1984, FORCES PRODUCTION PHILLIPS A, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR RIES T, 1989, INT DEFENSE REV DEC, P1617 ROSENBERG N, 1986, APR C TECHN COOP INT SAPOLSKY HM, 1972, POLARIS SYSTEM DEV SCHNEE JR, 1977, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V20, P62 SCHNEE JR, 1978, RES POLICY, P2 SMITH BLR, 1990, AM SCI POLICY SINCE SMITH MR, 1985, MILITARY ENTERPRISE STEINBERG G, 1983, STRUCTURE DEFENSE IN STEINBERG G, 1985, TECHNOL SOC, V7, P387 THOMPSON G, 1984, MILITARIZATION HIGH WHITE GR, 1984, UNPUB TECHN AIRCR IN WULF H, 1983, STRUCTURE DEFENSE IN YOSHINO MY, 1985, US COMPETITIVENESS W NR 45 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1992 VL 41 IS 4 BP 365 EP 390 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HW291 UT ISI:A1992HW29100002 ER PT J AU MODIS, T TI LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE IN POSITIONING NEW COMPUTER-PRODUCTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The correct positioning of new computer products has become crucially important as markets saturate and competition intensifies. The logistic function can provide an aid to product positioning. The method presented here addresses questions of price and performance only, and involves determination of learning curves from data on past successful product launches. It assumes that companies learn like individuals and that variables such as performance/price grow according to logistic curves limited by the basic technologies at hand. Digital's experience shows that its VAX family of computers is amenable to such an analysis, which also provides insights on the overall evolution of that technology. Besides offering guidelines for product positioning, this approach provides a means for estimating price drops and/or performance enhancements necessitated from delays in product delivery. RP MODIS, T, DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP,INT EUROPE,12 AVE MORGINES,CP 176,CH-1213 GENEVA 1,SWITZERLAND. CR DAY GS, 1981, J MARKETING, V45, P60 DEBECEKER A, 1989, JUN INT C DIFF TECHN FOSTER R, 1986, INNOVATION ATTACKERS, CH4 MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V54, P1 MODIS T, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P267 VANDERERVE M, 1989, POWER TOMORROWS MANA, CH7 WHISTON TG, ADV CYBERNETICS SYST, P265 NR 7 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1992 VL 41 IS 4 BP 391 EP 399 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HW291 UT ISI:A1992HW29100003 ER PT J AU TOMA, L GHEORGHE, E TI EQUILIBRIUM AND DISORDER IN HUMAN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES - SOME METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS WITHIN THE NEW PARADIGM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB According to Prof. Herbert Simon, the key variable within the human decision-making process still is the inelastic attention span of the decision maker. In this paper, we try to look more closely at this aspect and demonstrate that there is an optimum decision-making time based on information availability. With the help of some small-scale simulation models, we examine the relationships between the stability of the controlled system (measured by the warning level of two parameters) and the decision time span. We define the system's response as a so-called sensitivity structural matrix (a bifurcation matrix). The paper ascertains that it is dangerous to speed up information in systems of great complexity, that is, systems that hold great potential of surprise. Hasty decisions encapsulate many possible pitfalls. The discussion is held both within the framework of chaos and within the informational approach to econometrics framework. Nowadays, there is a great need to devise more stable societal systems. Assuming that the main driving forces behind societal evolution are our mental constructions and dialogue capabilities, we propose, in conclusion, an index to measure this stability, stability defined as our increased consciousness of the myriad of interlinkages that strongly connect man with nature and with technology. C1 INST COMP RES & INFORMAT,BUCHAREST,ROMANIA. CR *UN DEV PROGR, 1990, RAPP MOND DEV HUM ATTALI J, 1978, OCCIDENT DESARROI RU ATTALI J, 1990, LIGNES HORIZON AYRES RU, 1979, UNCERTAIN FUTURES CH AYRES RU, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P49 BATESON G, 1979, MIND NATURE NECESSAR BOULDING KE, 1978, ECODYNAMICS NEW THEO DOMENACH JM, VIOLENCE GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 KOESTLER A, 1959, SLEEPWALKERS HISTORY LASZLO E, 1980, EVOLUTIONARY VISION LINSTONE HA, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P153 MARUYAMA M, 1978, CULTURE FUTURE MICHAEL DN, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2 MICHAEL DN, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 MORIN E, 1977, METHODE NATURE NATUR, V1 MORIN E, 1982, SCI CONSCIENCE ONICESCU O, 1985, UNCERTAINTY EC MODEL PASSAT R, 1989, MONDE DIPLOMATIQ DEC PRIGOGINE I, 1989, SCI TECHNOLOGIE, V19 ROBINSON J, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V36 SAHAL D, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27 TOMA L, 1992, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC NR 23 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1992 VL 41 IS 4 BP 401 EP 422 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HW291 UT ISI:A1992HW29100004 ER PT J AU HERBIG, PA MILLER, JC TI THE UNITED-STATES VERSUS THE UNITED-KINGDOM, CANADA, AND AUSTRALIA - THE CASE FOR STRUCTURAL INFLUENCES ON INNOVATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Culture heavily influences a society's innovative capacity. Most studies place the proportion influenced by culture at 30%-50%. What causes the remainder? In this article, we discuss differences in innovative capacity among culturally similar countries-the Anglo-American cluster-and propose that much of the remaining variance can be traced to structural differences between the countries. C1 INDIANA UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,BLOOMINGTON,IN 47401. RP HERBIG, PA, JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIV,COLL COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT MKT,JACKSONVILLE,AL 36265. CR ABERNATHY K, 1979, SLOAN MANAGEMENT SPR, P3 BAILY MN, 1989, INNOVATION PRODUCTIV BARNETT HG, 1953, INNOVATION BASIS CUL BASS BM, 1979, ASSESSMENT MANAGERS BETEILLE A, 1977, INEQUALITY AMONG MEN CARTER CF, 1957, IND TECHNICAL PROGR EDGE G, 1985, MANAGEMENT TODAY NOV, P82 ENGLAND GW, 1979, ORG FUNCTIONING CROS FREEMAN C, 1988, SMALL COUNTRIES FACI HAIRE M, 1966, MANAGERIAL THINKING HERBIG PA, CULTURAL ASPECTS INN HERBIG PA, PUTTING TECHNOLOGICA HERBIG PA, 1990, 3RD ANN INT S PAC AS HOFSTEDE G, 1984, CULTURES CONSEQUENCE HOMER JB, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P197 INKSON JHK, J MANAGE STUD, V7, P347 LITTLE AD, 1977, NEW TECHNOLOGY BASED MASON D, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V3, P205 PATEL P, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P59 ROTHWELL R, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P91 ROWE CJ, 1986, IND MANAGEMENT D MAY, P18 RUTTAN VW, 1988, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V36, S247 SEGAL NS, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P189 SIROTA D, 1971, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN, P53 SOMERS MS, 1968, COMP MARKETING SYSTE WALLACE W, 1985, TECHNOVATION, V3, P133 WITCHER B, 1985, Q REV MARKETING, V10, P14 NR 27 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1992 VL 41 IS 4 BP 423 EP 434 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HW291 UT ISI:A1992HW29100005 ER PT J AU NG, P HEIDARI, A TI FORECAST COMPARISON OF EXCHANGE-RATE MODELS WITH THE KALMAN FILTER SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SAMPLE AB We show that the structural models' out-of-sample predictive performance of the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen, and trade-weighted dollar exchange rates is inferior to that of the simple random walk. However, the application of a Kalman filter to the structural models, which corrects the time-varying properties of coefficients over time, improves the predictive performance of exchange rate models. Our findings suggest that the coefficients of time-series models and structural models which use time-series data have shifted over time. Thus, a model that utilizes this information may increase its predictive performance in in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. C1 UNIV HOUSTON,ECON,HOUSTON,TX 77004. CR ARMSTRONG JS, 1985, LONG RANGE CRYSTAL B, P346 BLUNDELLWIGNALL A, 1984, MANCH SCH ECON SOC, V52, P14 DIEBOLD FX, 1990, J INT ECON, V28, P315 DORNBUSCH R, 1976, J POLITICAL EC, V84, P1161 FRANKEL JA, 1979, AM ECON REV, V69, P610 FRANKEL JA, 1982, REV ECON STAT, V64, P515 HARVEY AC, 1981, TIME SERIES MODELS HEIDARI A, 1990, FORECASTING SURVEY HEIDARI A, 1990, MONETARY FISCAL POLI HOOPER P, 1982, J INT MONEY FINANC, V1, P39 ISARD P, 1983, 226 FED RES BOARD IN KALMAN RE, 1960, T ASME, V82, P34 KALMAN RE, 1961, T ASME, V83, P95 LUCAS RE, 1976, CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER C, V1, P19 MEESE RA, 1983, EXCHANGE RATES INT M MEESE RA, 1983, J INT ECON, V14, P3 MEESE RA, 1989, UNPUB EMPIRICAL ASSE PARZEN E, 1975, 23 STAT U NEW YORK T PRESCOTT DM, 1988, UNPUB DO ASSET MARKE SCHINASI G, 1986, UNPUB OUT SAMPLE FOR SIMS CA, 1980, AM ECON REV, V45, P1481 SOMANATH VS, 1986, J INT MONEY FINANC, V5, P195 WHITE H, 1988, IBM8820 U CAL DEP EC WOLFF CCP, 1987, J BUS ECON STAT, V5, P87 WOO WT, 1981, J INT ECON, V18, P1 NR 25 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUN PY 1992 VL 41 IS 4 BP 435 EP 443 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HW291 UT ISI:A1992HW29100006 ER PT J AU GOLDBERG, WH TI ABOUT THIS ISSUE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 GOTHENBURG UNIV,GRAD SCH LAW & ECON,DEPT GEN & COMPARAT MANAGEMENT,S-41124 GOTHENBURG,SWEDEN. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 205 EP 209 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600001 ER PT J AU KOTYCZKA, C KROSKE, H TI TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE IN THE GDR AND ITS SOCIAL-CONSEQUENCES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Against the background of the peaceful revolution in the GDR in November 1989, the authors develop a projection of the political, economic, technological, and social consequences to be faced. The issue at stake is to replace a strictly centralized, rather conservative system with a democratic, pluralistic order, to dissolve and diversify state-held and collective property, and-during a transitional period of a few years-to establish a competitive, efficient, and socially and ecologically oriented market economy. The state of the society and economy at the outset is scrutinized. A thorough reconstruction of the economy and its technology base is urgently needed, as is a radical rehabilitation of a widely devastated environment. The capital required to achieve competitiveness in an open world economy cannot possibly be raised within the country. The government must meet the challenge of establishing the international capital market's confidence in the viability and reliability of the country's political and economic system. Private initiative is to be encouraged and fostered to become a solid backbone of a highly dynamic market economy. The first steps have been taken by the two German states toward the development of economic and currency union. A speedy and drastic improvement in GDR economic productivity and competitiveness is a crucial prerequisite. Given the present state, adaptation will take a few years of "sweat and tears," implying very high rates of unemployment, but also emerging social and economic differentiation. Safety-nets must be established to prevent disaster and unrest. No doubt, the former socialist part of a unified Germany will be the poor one for some time. It must not be allowed to be relegated to a poorhouse. For some time to come, the achievements of radical restructuring and increased efficiency will be the decisive key factors. The ecological heritage of 45 years of centralist rule constitutes a most severe impediment jeopardizing necessary reforms. Some policy proposals to cope with this heavy burden are discussed. C1 AKAD WISSENSCH DDR,HEINRICH HERTZ INST ENVIRONM RES,O-1136 BERLIN,GERMANY. RP KOTYCZKA, C, AKAD WISSENSCH DDR,CENT INST ECON RES,EINBECKER STR 109,O-1136 BERLIN,GERMANY. CR 1989, STATISTICAL YB GDR B 1990, INFORMATION DEV ENV *GERMAN I EC RES, 1989, WEEKL REP BUDIG PK, 1989, STATEMENT MINISTER S SIMONIS UE, 1987, STUDY INT I ENV SOC NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 211 EP 222 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600002 ER PT J AU MAIER, H TI SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION EAST-WEST - ECONOMIC-PROBLEMS WITH THE UNIFICATION OF GERMANY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Beginning with the reasons for the collapse of the socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, alternative paradigms for economic reform are discussed, in particular, incremental change and the "big bang." Six possible industry strategies are examined, as well as the entrenched characteristics of the old command economy which must be overcome. RP MAIER, H, UNIV EDUC SCI FLENSBURG,SCHIFFSBRUCKE 12,W-2390 FLENSBURG,GERMANY. CR 1990, FRANKFURTER RUN 1027, P13 DUBROWSKI HJ, 1990, ZUKUNFT DDR, P188 EUCKEN W, 1950, ORDO, V3, P14 MAIER H, 1990, INNERDEUTSCHEN HANDE, P31 SANDBERG J, 1990, COMPETENCE ANAL MANA WILLICH HC, 1955, TRIEBKRAFTE DEUTSCHE, P68 NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 223 EP 242 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600003 ER PT J AU HAUSTEIN, HD TI STRATEGIC CHALLENGES IN A TIME OF EAST GERMAN SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB After the currency (1 July 1990) and political (3 October 1990) union with West Germany, East Germany faces a period of major economic turbulence. There exist some favorable conditions for a successful changeover to a market economy, but at the same time there are also some important obstacles to investments in East Germany. Barriers of a psychological nature play an amplifying role. They emanate from the paradigmatic change from a command system to a market economy. Change of the economic order is only one aspect of remedial measures to be taken, the other being the necessary package of economic policy measures for the restructuring of East Germany's economy. C1 INST INNOVAT MANAGEMENT,BERLIN,GERMANY. RP HAUSTEIN, HD, SCH ECON,HERMAN DUNCKERSTR 8,O-1157 BERLIN,GERMANY. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 243 EP 248 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600004 ER PT J AU SMRCKA, J TI CREATING MARKET CONDITIONS - THE KEY TO CZECHOSLOVAKIA ENTRY INTO EUROPE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The creation of market conditions in Czechoslovakia after 42 years of a command economy is entering a critical stage. After the breakup of monopolistic structures and the introduction of Western-type legislation for the economy, the main task now is the fast privatization of a sizable part of the Czechoslovak economy. C1 CENT INST ECON RES,DEPT PLANNING & ECON POLICY,PRAGUE,CZECHOSLOVAKIA. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 249 EP 256 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600005 ER PT J AU BUDNIKOWSKI, A TI TRANSITION FROM A CENTRALLY PLANNED-ECONOMY TO A MARKET-ECONOMY - THE CASE OF POLAND SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In the fall of 1989, Poland started to transform her economy from a centrally planned system to a market system; becoming the first Eastern European country to do so. This article provides short discussion of the first stage of these historical and unprecedented steps. Some preliminary conclusions are offered. RP BUDNIKOWSKI, A, WARSAW SCH ECON,AL NIEPODLEGLOSCI 162,PL-02554 WARSAW,POLAND. CR 1988, DZIENNIK USTAW 1223 1990, I INVESTOR MAR 1990, INFORMACJA STATYSTYC 1990, RZECZPOSPOLIA 1990, RZECZPOSPOLITA 1990, ZYCIE WARSZAWY HAJKOWSKI L, 1990, FOREIGN EC AID ASSIS NR 7 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 257 EP 270 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600006 ER PT J AU MAELTSEMEES, S TI ESTONIA 1987-1990 - FROM A THEORY OF ECONOMIC SOVEREIGNTY TO THE BEGINNINGS OF AN INDEPENDENT REPUBLIC SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB When a proposal aiming at economic sovereignty was submitted in the Estonian SSR three years ago, it signified not only a turning point in the political life of that country, but also triggered claims to be raised by other small and even large nations within the boundaries of the Soviet Union. In 1988 the situation was in great flux-it seemed that what had been a utopian dream for years could become reality within a few months. Progress toward political and economic freedom suddenly seemed possible. A year later the situation was different. A big mountain gave birth to small mice only. Pioneering Estonia, now joined by its neighboring Baltic Republics, is designing reforms for a future with greater sovereignty and, ultimately, independence. In this article brief accounts of the reforms currently planned and partially implemented are followed by outlines for further policies and measures to be adopted as Estonia attempts to achieve its ultimate goals. RP MAELTSEMEES, S, ACAD SCI ESSSR,INST ECON,TALLINN 200101,ESTONIA,USSR. CR 1988, EESTI NSV ISEMAJANDA 1988, EESTI NSV LOOMINGULI 1989, EESTI NSV RAHVAMAJAN 1990, MAALEHT 0607 1990, OHTULEHT 0606 KALLAS S, 1987, EDASI 0926 KUKK K, 1989, VORTRAGE GEMEINSAMEN PEAMINISTER E, 1990, SAVISAARE VALITUSE P NR 8 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 271 EP 281 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600007 ER PT J AU TOMA, L GHEORGHE, E TI A POSSIBLE COMMUNICATION MODEL APPLIED TO SOCIOECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES - AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO FOR ROMANIA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGY AB From a general theory perspective, all economic systems are sets of rules devised to fit the specific culture, values, and goals of each society. The market economies were designed by humans and legislated into existence, while prices and wages reflect not only the public and private choices' preferences, but also a society's world view and its actual state of knowledge of its real situation in the physical world. Back in 1957, Kal Polanyi and Conrad Arensberg demonstrated convincingly that resource allocation's methods are as good as this state of knowledge is and that we have to design a broader theoretical framework in order to grasp more clearly the complex phenomena of our dynamic, heterogeneous, and multicultural world that occur beyond the preferences' and expectations' paradigm. There is a lot of evidence, today, that the overaggregated price-based indicators ignore overall social and environment control-related costs as well as nonmoney sectors. A money economy seems to be hubris prone, that is, it allows the leakage (dissipation) of formidable resources in nonconstructive activities. Prices played a ubiquitous and useful historical role as a feedback mechanism, but as technology becomes mom complex and social and technological interlinkages enter new qualitative orbits, there is a vital need to attempt to control this complexity by help of new sources of qualitative relevant data and imaginative policy tools, free from the bias of prices. The method that is presented in this paper might be called a market-coordinating-information-based system. We generate some scenarios defined by a set of technometric indicators, expressed in physical units. These indicators help us to conceive a "model" of permanent communication among all of the actors involved in creating the future model based on an harmonious interaction among culturally different value systems. C1 INST FINANCE,BUCHAREST,ROMANIA. CR AIYOSHI E, 1981, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V11, P444 ARBEL A, 1980, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V11, P723 AWH RY, 1976, MICROECONOMICS THEOR AYRES RU, 1989, TECHNOMETRICS RELEVA BARTLETT C, 1989, WORLD 1990 BOULDING K, 1970, EC SCI BURMEISTER E, 1972, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V1, P9 CHEN K, 1979, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V9, P567 ERLANDSON RF, 1980, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V1, P16 FRIEDMAN M, 1948, J POLITICAL EC AUG GIARINI O, 1979, RENDEMENTS DECROISSA GOMIDE FAC, 1984, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V1, P88 GRUPP H, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P123 HAMMOND KR, 1977, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V5, P358 HARMAN W, 1987, DEV FORUM, P11 HASSAN MF, 1978, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V7, P575 HAYASHI Y, 1986, SUMITOMO Q REV, V22, P4 HIRATA H, 1978, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V6, P432 ISHIKAWA M, 1980, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V11, P696 JEDLICKA A, 1980, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V1, P49 KACPRZYK J, 1984, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V2, P310 LENDARIS GG, 1980, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V12, P807 MARKOWITZ H, 1952, J POLITICAL EC APR MARUYAMA M, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P205 MAXNEEF M, 1989, DEV DIALOGUE, P7 POLAK F, 1973, IMAGE FUTURE RIGGS FW, 1977, INT SOC SCI J, V114, P608 ROMALO D, 1986, METODE MATEMATICE PR ROMANOFF E, 1981, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V3, P181 SAGE AP, 1981, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V9, P640 SAHAL D, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P1 SAKAWA M, 1980, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V12, P796 SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P119 STEEB R, 1981, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V11, P544 SUNDARESHAN MK, 1977, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V12, P863 TENNEY TT, 1981, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V8, P517 TENNEY TT, 1981, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V8, P527 TODA M, 1981, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V8, P517 TOMA L, 1988, REV ECON, V8, P27 TOMA L, 1989, REV ECON, V14, P15 TUMMALA RL, 1972, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V11, P548 WALLER RJ, 1979, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V9, P580 WEISSKOPF VF, 1977, AM SCI, V65, P411 ZAMFIR E, 1989, INCURSIUNE UNIVERSAL NR 44 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 283 EP 307 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600008 ER PT J AU FALTSMAN, VC TI DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGIES AND THE RESTRUCTURING OF THE FORMER SOVIET-ECONOMY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article deals with a statistical insight into the specific features of resource-saving technology diffusion under centralized economic management. Causes and implications of the S-curve distortions are noted. A new spline-function evaluation method is suggested for assessment of the speed of technology diffusion. C1 MV LOMONOSOV STATE UNIV,ECON,MOSCOW 117234,USSR. RP FALTSMAN, VC, ACAD SCI USSR,27 KRASICOVA STR,MOSCOW 117218,USSR. CR FALTSMAN V, 1988, VOSMOSNIE ISMENENIYA FALTSMAN V, 1989, ECONOMICHESKIYE CONS FALTSMAN V, 1989, VOSPRIIMCHIVOST EC N NAMI K, 1988, ENERGETICHESCIYE PRO PRAVEDNIKOV NK, 1989, INVESTSIONNAYA POLIT PUARYE D, 1981, ECONOMETRIYA STRUCTU NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 309 EP 317 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600009 ER PT J AU GOLDBERG, WH TI THE ROCKY ROAD FROM A COMMAND ECONOMY TO A MARKET-ECONOMY - COMPARISONS, ANALYSES, ADDENDA, AND OUTLOOK SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The concluding section of this issue of TF&SC attempts to summarize and supplement the findings reported in the articles regarding the type, qualities, and dimensions of the problems encountered when, after 40 or more years of command economy rule, there is a striving to introduce market economies. The primary difficulties are as follows: . The old system was living from substance, wearing it out, leaving deep scars behind: severe environmental decay, reduced human life expectancies, a worn-out and inadequate physical, economic, and administrative infrastructure. . Industrial structures are highly bureaucratized, inefficient, and monopolized, operating at very low productivities; there is underemployment and a lack of understanding of markets and market requirements and needs. . The countries were ruled by political, bureaucratized superstructures, controlled by secret police forces, some of which are still felt to be active. The difficulties to be overcome in transition to both democracy and a market economy are the following: Privatization issues: ownership questions, time- and resource-consuming procedures in settling ownership rights, establishing opening balance sheets/values of assets, debts, and obligations to be assigned for firms to be privatized. Reconstruction/rehabilitation of firms, industries, regions and infrastructures in decay; improving productivity, establishing/developing markets, and so forth. Problems of both structural and transitional unemployment, often in monostructured regions; retraining, upgrading, motivating, and, in some cases, moving people. Finding competent managers and people for industry, trade, and commerce, leading personnel for public administration and infrastructural organizations and institutions (for example, lawyers), as well as entrepreneur-minded people at large. Finding competent buyers for many thousands of enterprises, to start or continue to run firms under new conditions. Finding access to financial resources to cover needs in industry, trade, commerce, and infrastructure; to finance urgently needed rehabilitation of the environment. The summary uses the German-German case as a catalyst and point of departure, for both comparisons, analyses, and approaches proposed as well as malfunctions and blind alleys to be avoided. The difficulties encountered in the German-German case not only shed light on those (to be) faced in the other reform countries' transformation, under much less conducive conditions, but also illustrate why the Soviet perestroika attempts are doomed to failure. An analysis of value and behavior differences over time and in the countries discussed concludes the summary. C1 GOTHENBURG UNIV,GRAD SCH LAW & ECON,DEPT GEN & COMPARAT MANAGEMENT,S-41124 GOTHENBURG,SWEDEN. CR KLAGES H, 1991, FRANKFURTER ALLG, P7 MYRDAL G, 1968, ASIAN DRAMA, CH2 NR 2 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1992 VL 41 IS 3 BP 319 EP 340 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HV296 UT ISI:A1992HV29600010 ER PT J AU MODIS, T DEBECKER, A TI CHAOS-LIKE STATES CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE AND AFTER LOGISTIC GROWTH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Instabilities associated with population growth can be simulated by putting the logistic growth curve in a discrete form. In contrast to the usual derivation of chaos, which can only explain instabilities at the top of the curve, this method can also account for fluctuations during the early phases of the niche-filling process. Precursors, a steep initial rise, and final instabilities can all be interrelated. Industrial examples are given of logistic growth alternating with periods of chaotic fluctuations. C1 CERN,CH-1211 GENEVA 23,SWITZERLAND. BROOKHAVEN NATL LAB,UPTON,NY 11973. COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10027. NEVIS LABS,IRVINGTON ON HUDSON,NY. UNIV LYON 1,F-69365 LYONS 2,FRANCE. UNIV GENEVA,CH-1211 GENEVA 4,SWITZERLAND. RP MODIS, T, DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP,MANAGEMENT SCI,12 AVE MORGINES,1213 PETIT LANCY 1,GENEVA,SWITZERLAND. CR *US BUR CENS, 1975, HIST STAT US COL TIM *US BUR CENS, 1985, STAT ABSTR US AUSUBEL JH, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P245 GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS, P63 MANDELBROT B, 1991, DIFFUSION TECHNOLOGI MARCHETTI C, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V14, P191 MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P3 MEADE N, 1985, J OPER RES SOC, V36, P1103 MONTREY H, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P15 MONTROLL EW, 1974, INTRO QUANTITATIVE A PEITGEN HO, 1986, BEAUTY FRACTALS VERHULST PF, 1945, NOUVEAUX MEMOIRES AC, V18, P1 NR 12 TC 17 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1992 VL 41 IS 2 BP 111 EP 120 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HN851 UT ISI:A1992HN85100001 ER PT J AU SAXENA, JP SUSHIL VRAT, P TI SCENARIO BUILDING - A CRITICAL-STUDY OF ENERGY-CONSERVATION IN THE INDIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This paper discusses scenario building-searching for key variables, identifying the actors, their activities, roles, alliances, and conflicts, and analyzing seeds of change. A case study for energy conservation in the Indian cement industry is used to explain the approach of scenario building. Indirect relationships having a greater influence than direct relationships are used to identify the key actors, objectives, and activities. For this purpose, interpretive structural modeling has been used to develop direct relationship matrices. Fuzzy considerations are superimposed to prepare fuzzy direct relationship matrices, which are then used to develop stabilized fuzzy indirect relationship matrices. The driver power determined from the fuzzy indirect relationship matrices is used to determine the hierarchy of variables and identify the key variable of the system. Actor's strategy tables are used to study the alliances and conflicts among the actors. The extent of alliance and conflict is also examined. Factors influencing changes in the role of various actors are identified. C1 INDIAN INST TECHNOL,CTR MANAGEMENT STUDIES,NEW DELHI 110029,INDIA. INDIAN INST TECHNOL,IND ENGN,NEW DELHI 110029,INDIA. RP SAXENA, JP, NATL COUNCIL CEMENT & BLDG MAT,M 10 S EXTENS II RING RD,NEW DELHI 110049,INDIA. CR BRAUERS J, 1986, J FORECASTING, V7, P31 GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC, P19 HARARY F, 1965, STRUCTURAL MODELS IN MALONE DW, 1975, P IEEE, V63, P397 MILLETT SM, 1988, LONG RANGE PLANN, V21, P61 SAGE AP, 1977, METHODOLOGY LARGE SC, P91 SAXENA JP, 1990, SYST RES, V7, P147 SAXENA JP, 1990, SYST RES, V7, P245 SAXENA JP, 1992, IN PRESS SOCIO EC PL WARFIELD JN, 1973, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V3, P441 WARFIELD JN, 1974, MONOGRAPH BATELLE ME WHIPPLE W, 1989, LONG RANGE PLANN, V22, P82 ZADEH LA, 1965, INFORM CONTR, V8, P338 NR 13 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1992 VL 41 IS 2 BP 121 EP 146 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HN851 UT ISI:A1992HN85100002 ER PT J AU BUDNIKOWSKI, A TI FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN ENVIRONMENTAL-PROTECTION IN EASTERN-EUROPE - THE CASE OF POLAND SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The countries of Eastern Europe suffer from the environmental pollution which is also a source of ecological hazards of international dimension. The amount of financial means that this group of countries can earmark for environmental protection is limited. Therefore, Eastern Europe is ready to accept the foreign ecological assistance offered her after the political changes in this region had started. The case of Poland is useful for an analysis of foreign participation in environmental protection in Eastern Europe because of this country's share of Europe's environmental damage and since Poland was the first country in this region to initiate political changes. C1 POZNAN ACAD ECON,POZNAN,POLAND. CENT SCH PLANNING & STAT,WARSAW,POLAND. UNIV FRANKFURT,W-6000 FRANKFURT,GERMANY. RP BUDNIKOWSKI, A, WARSAW SCH ECON,ECONOM,A1 NIEPODLEGLOSCI 162,PL-02554 WARSAW,POLAND. CR *FOR DAM AIR POLL, 1989, REP 1988 FOR DAM SUR *GLOWN URZ STAT, ROCZN STAT 1985 1990 *GLOWN URZ STAT, 1989, MAL ROCZN STAT 1989 *GLOWN URZ STAT, 1989, OCHR SROD NAT 1989 *GLOWN URZ STAT, 1990, RAP STAN ZAGR OCHR 1 *MIN OCHR SROD ZAS, 1989, NAR PROGR OCHR SROD *NORWAY MET I, MET SYNTH CTR W *POLAND MIN ENV PR, 1990, NAT ENV POL *POLAND MIN ENV PR, 1990, POL ENV MAN PROJ 199 *WORLD RES I UN EN, WORLD RES 1990 91 BUDNIKOWSKI A, 1986, ROZWOJ GOSPODARCZY O GRZEGORCZYK A, 1984, POLITYKA, V2 LANGE O, 1961, PISMA EKONOMICZNE SP SITNICKI S, 1989, GREENHOUSE GAS CONTR SMID H, 1988, ACID NEWS, V3, P6 WELFENS M, 1988, UMWELTPOLITIK OSTUND NR 16 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1992 VL 41 IS 2 BP 147 EP 160 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HN851 UT ISI:A1992HN85100003 ER PT J AU POWER, M JEWKES, E TI SIMULATING THE DISCOVERY RATE IMPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Technological innovation has been an important source of continued improvements in the discovery rate of oil and gas. Previous work, however, has suggested that there were diminishing returns to successive improvements in exploration technology. The effects of introduced technological innovation were studied using a simulation modeling framework that relies on geologic data. The modeling framework treats the probability of discovery as being proportional to pool size, the number of pools remaining to be discovered, and conditions predictions of future discoveries on the number of previous discoveries. The framework includes a discovery efficiency parameter which represents the degree of technical advancement possessed by exploration firms. Increments were made in the parameter at varying stages in the exploration history of a hypothetical area of interest, and the resulting cumulative discoveries, average discoveries, and average finding costs were calculated. The pattern of results suggested that while early introductions of technological advancements were capable of improving discovery efficiency, in terms of the amounts discovered per unit of effort, they were not capable of maximizing total discoveries. Similar technological changes introduced later in the discovery history of an area of interest, however, had the reverse effect: they decreased discovery efficiencies but maximized total discoveries. RP POWER, M, UNIV WATERLOO,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,WATERLOO N2L 3G1,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR *WINT PETR CONS SE, 1985, PSAC WELL COST SURV ARPS JJ, 1958, AAPG BULL, V42, P2544 ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 BAKER RA, 1984, AAPG BULL, V68, P426 BAROUCH E, 1976, 888 SLOAN SCH WORK P DREW LJ, 1980, 1138A US GEOL SURV P HARBAUGH JW, 1977, PROBABILITY METHODS, P1 HUBBERT MK, 1967, AAPG BULL, V51, P2207 KAUFMAN GM, 1975, AAPG STUDIES GEOLOGY, V1 KOUTSOYIANNIS A, MODERN MICROECONOMIC, P46 KVINKOVETSKY Y, 1982, PREDICTIVE GEOLOGY MCCROSSAN RG, 1969, CAN J EARTH SCI, V6, P201 PODRUSKI JA, 1988, 8726 GEOL SURV CAN P POWER M, 1990, THESIS U WATERLOO POWER M, 1992, IN PRESS J CANADIAN, V31, P49 POWER M, 1992, IN PRESS J FORECASTI, V11 ROOT DH, 1979, AM SCI, V67, P648 RYAN JT, 1975, B CANADIAN PETROLEUM, V21, P219 WHITE DA, 1979, AAPG BULL, V63, P2183 NR 19 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1992 VL 41 IS 2 BP 161 EP 175 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HN851 UT ISI:A1992HN85100004 ER PT J AU BHARGAVA, SC BHARGAVA, RK JAIN, A TI REQUIREMENT OF DIMENSIONAL CONSISTENCY IN MODEL-EQUATIONS - DIFFUSION-MODELS INCORPORATING PRICE AND THEIR APPLICATIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This article emphasizes the necessity of imposing the requirement of dimensional consistency in writing model equations. Difficulties that arise due to inconsistency are demonstrated through the application of diffusion models incorporating price to data on color televisions, room air-conditioners, and clothes dryers for the United States. Four dimensionally consistent model prescriptions that incorporate the effect of price, within the context of the Bass model of new product diffusion, are proposed and applied for projecting the demand for color television in the Indian market. C1 NATL INST SCI TECHNOL & DEV STUDIES,DR KS KRISHNAN MARG,NEW DELHI 110012,INDIA. UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DELHI 110007,INDIA. CR *CTR MON IND EC, 1989, BAS STAT REL IND EC, V1 *INDIA GOV, 1989, 8TH REP STUD TEAM CO *SYST INC, 1988, SYST BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BASS FM, 1980, J BUSINESS 2, V53, P51 BHARGAVA SC, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P323 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 JAIN A, 1990, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V49, P429 JAIN DC, 1990, J BUS ECON STAT, V8, P163 JEULAND AP, TIMS STUDIES MANAGEM, V18, P1 KALISH S, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P135 KALISH S, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MAHAJAN V, 1986, DIFFUSION MODELS NEW ROBINSON B, 1975, MANAGE SCI, V21, P187 NR 14 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1992 VL 41 IS 2 BP 177 EP 188 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA HN851 UT ISI:A1992HN85100005 ER PT J AU COATES, VT TI TECHNOLOGY AND UNITED-STATES STOCK MARKETS - SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB For 25 years, US stock markets have been automating their operations, but they have selected or designed systems that preserve rather than replace the traditional and profitable roles of market professionals. In adopting this strategy, they failed to meet some of the public policy goals adopted by Congress in 1975 under the rubric "a national market system," and they have probably not made optimal use of computers and telecommunications. The markets are struggling to cope with other long-range trends reinforced by information technology: institutionalization of investment, innovation in products and trading strategies, and internationalization of trading. All push the markets toward using increasingly powerful information technology, but this will threaten established trading mechanisms. The exchanges and over-the-counter markets are already faltering from the resulting tension. Market institutions could be superseded by organizations with greater readiness to use the capabilities of technology-information services vendors. RP COATES, VT, US CONGRESS,OFF TECHNOL ASSESSMENTS,WASHINGTON,DC 20510. CR 1989, GLOBAL EQUITY ANAL R, V4 1989, JUL WORKSH INT SEC T 1989, SEC REG L REP, V21, P547 *SEC IND ASS, 1989, FOR ACT REP COATES VT, 1979, RETROSPECTIVE TECHNO HALE DD, 1989, UNPUB JAPANESE MILIT NR 6 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1992 VL 41 IS 1 BP 1 EP 12 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ236 UT ISI:A1992GZ23600001 ER PT J AU VANGEENHUIZEN, M NIJKAMP, P TOWNROE, P TI COMPANY LIFE-HISTORY ANALYSIS AND TECHNOGENESIS - A SPATIAL VIEW SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID REGIONAL-DEVELOPMENT; POLICY AB This article examines the relationship between innovation dynamics in individual companies and the urban environment. First, this theme is discussed theoretically, and an overview is given of major new insights in this field. Second, company history analysis is presented as a useful method for an empirical investigation of the long-term renewal of firms in a spatial context. Next, based on pilot studies, a set of important data and validity problems is discussed and empirically analyzed on the basis of a small sample. These studies show that companies may follow distinct development paths within a challenge-response framework, for example, incremental renewal or shockwise readjustment. Also, the pilot studies point to the influence of the urban environment on the renewal of firms. C1 FREE UNIV AMSTERDAM,FAC ECON & ECONOMET,DE BOELELAAN 1105,1081 HV AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. CR *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1980, INN SMALL MED FIRMS AYRES A, 1987, BARRIERS BREAKTHROUG BRUDER W, 1983, RES POLICY, V12, P213 BUCKLEY PJ, 1985, EC THEORY MULTINATIO CASSON MC, 1987, FIRM MARKET CLARKE R, 1987, EC FIRM COOMBS R, 1987, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA DALY P, 1985, BIOTECHNOLOGY BUSINE DAVELAAR EJ, 1989, THESIS FREE U AMSTER DREWE P, 1987, COMING EC CYCLE BUIL EWERS HJ, 1980, REG STUD, V14, P161 FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC GIAOUTZI M, 1988, SMALL MEDIUM SIZE EN GILLESPIE A, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE GLASMEIER A, 1988, REG STUD, V22, P287 GODDARD JB, 1986, EMPLOYMENT SPATIAL D, P91 KAMANN DJ, 1990, SPATIAL CONTEXT TECH KAMIEN MI, 1982, MARKET STRUCTURE INN KEEBLE D, 1986, NEW FIRMS REGIONAL D KLEINKNECHT AH, 1987, INNOVATION PATTERNS KNAAP GA, 1989, LABOUR ENV IND CHANG KNAAP GA, 1990, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE KRUMME G, 1975, LOCATIONAL DYNAMICS MALECKI EJ, 1983, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V8, P89 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NIJKAMP P, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ORISHIMO I, 1988, INFORMATION TECHNOLO PIORE MJ, 1986, 2ND IND DIVIDE ROTHWELL R, 1981, IND INNOVATION PUBLI ROTHWELL R, 1985, REINDUSTRIALIZATION SCOTT AJ, 1986, PRODUCTION WORK TERR STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA TAYLOR MJ, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE THWAITES AT, 1978, REG STUD, V12, P445 VAESSEN P, 1989, BEDRIJF REGIO SUCCES VANGEENHUIZEN M, 1989, ONDERNEMINGSGESCHIED WILLIAMSON OE, 1985, EC I CAPITALISM WINTER SG, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P287 NR 38 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1992 VL 41 IS 1 BP 13 EP 28 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ236 UT ISI:A1992GZ23600002 ER PT J AU EVANS, DA MOUSSAVI, F LANGFORD, BE TI INTEGRATING SOCIAL AND FINANCIAL GOALS TOWARD MORE BALANCED NEW TECHNOLOGY DECISIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID PROFITABILITY; COST AB Many practitioners would agree that, in order to maximize long-term shareholder wealth, social costs should be incorporated into financial decisions. More than constant reminders, they need concrete methods by which to move beyond their traditional ways. This article presents a capital budgeting model that considers both social and financial dimensions of new technology decisions. The model, utilizing the multiple dimensional scaling procedure, allows decision makers to incorporate the uncertainties of costs from new technology borne by the firm and society. C1 UNIV NO IOWA,MANAGEMENT,CEDAR FALLS,IA 50614. WESTERN CAROLINA UNIV,MARKETING,CULLOWHEE,NC 28723. RP EVANS, DA, UNIV ALABAMA,SCH ADM SCI,DEPT ECON & FINANCE,HUNTSVILLE,AL 35899. CR AMARA R, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P43 ARABIE P, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P245 AUPPERLE KE, 1985, ACAD MANAGE J, V28, P446 BOTEZ MC, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P261 COLLINS D, 1989, J BUS ETHICS, V8, P1 COOK TJ, 1989, ENG ECON, V34, P291 CURTLER H, 1986, SHAME RESPONSIBILITY, P1 DIETZ T, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V31, P79 EVANS DA, 1987, ENG ECON, V32, P263 HARRIS RS, 1989, FINANC MANAGE, V18, P74 HICKSON DJ, 1986, TOP DECISIONS STRATE MECHLIN G, 1980, HARVARD BUS REV, V58, P93 ONEILL HM, 1989, J BUS ETHICS, V8, P353 PFEFFER J, 1978, EXTERNAL CONTROL ORG PIKE R, 1989, ENG ECON, V34, P149 PLEBANI LP, 1981, RES MANAGE, V24, P34 RIEGER WG, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P195 ROBERTS NC, 1989, ORG DYNAMICS WIN, P63 SMITH GN, 1988, ENG ECON, V33, P331 SULC O, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P251 TCHIJOV I, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P261 VLECK C, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PERF, V28, P235 WEAVER SC, 1989, FINANC MANAGE, V18, P18 NR 23 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1992 VL 41 IS 1 BP 29 EP 40 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ236 UT ISI:A1992GZ23600003 ER PT J AU LIN, SAY TI RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT RIVALRY AND INDUSTRIAL-POLICY FOR HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB In this article, the narrowing of technology gaps and the resulting gains in trade between competing countries for high-technology commodities are explained with a model incorporating economies of scale, imperfect competition, technology diffusion, and institutional changes. Our analysis suggests that comparative cost advantage, taken alone, is not the only determinant of a country's competitiveness. The short-run "rents" of initial discoveries and trade advantages are eroded in time by competitors who replicate and improve upon such discoveries. Japan's competitiveness is one example of this. Some of the policy implications suggested by the model, including technology policy, are explored, and modifications are made in both theory and policy that might be dictated by the unrelenting nature of Japan's success. RP LIN, SAY, SO ILLINOIS UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,DEPT ECON,ROOM 3130,BLDG 3,EDWARDSVILLE,IL 62026. CR *US BUR CENS, 1990, STAT ABSTR US AUDRETSCH DB, 1988, REV ECON STAT, V70, P438 DERTOUZOS M, 1989, MADE AM REGAINING PR FERGUSON C, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V90, P55 FORRESTER J, 1990, PLANNING REV NOV, P70 FREEMAN C, 1989, FINANC DEV, V26, P46 HIRSCH S, 1965, NATIONAL I EC RE NOV HUFBAUER G, 1966, SYNTHETIC MATERIALS HUGHES K, 1986, EXPORTS TECHNOLOGY HYMER S, 1976, INT OPERATIONS NATIO JORDE TM, 1989, CALIF MANAGE REV, V31, P25 KOGYO G, 1983, WAGAKUNI KENKYU KAIH KRUGMAN P, 1985, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMEN KUZNETS S, 1968, EC GROWTH NATIONS TO LINDER SB, 1961, ESSAY TRADE TRANSFOR OHAME K, 1989, HARVARD BUS REV, V83, P152 PEISL A, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V90, P180 POSNER MV, 1961, OXFORD ECON PAP, V13, P323 REICH R, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V91, P53 REICH RB, 1983, NEXT AM FRONTIER SMITH L, 1988, CUOMO COMMISSION REP VENABLES AJ, 1986, ECON POLICY, V1, P622 VERNON R, 1966, Q J ECON, V80, P190 WALKER W, 1979, IND INNOVATION INT T WINCESMITH D, 1990, HARVARD BUS REV, V90, P181 NR 25 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1992 VL 41 IS 1 BP 41 EP 55 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ236 UT ISI:A1992GZ23600004 ER PT J AU LORRAINE, H BRUZZONE, ND TI PROCESS-CONTROL - AN UNTAPPED RESOURCE FOR MANAGERS OF STERILE INSECT PROGRAMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MEDITERRANEAN FRUIT-FLIES; QUALITY-CONTROL; MASS AB Results of a pilot project to apply advanced rearing techniques to the mass production of sterile medflies (Ceratitis capitata Wied.) indicate that industrial process-control procedures can provide program administrators and production managers with a multifaceted management tool. Quality control of process can be used to (a) control variation in the production process in order to identify and correct problems before they become crises, (b) generate the information needed to estimate the tradeoffs made when procedures are modified, (c) identify parameters for program evaluation that appropriately guide and motivate the behavior of program implementers, (d) identify new research questions, and (e) provide a formalized structure to direct and facilitate the adoption of new technology. C1 IAEA SEIBERSDORF LABS,JOINT FAO IAEA PROGRAMME,ENTOMOL UNIT,VIENNA,AUSTRIA. CR *COM MOSC, 1989, MAN DESCR ACT TECHN BOLLER EF, 1977, QUALITY CONTROL IDEA BOLLER EF, 1981, Z ANGEW ENTOMOL, V92, P67 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BRAZZEL JR, 1986, USDA APHIS8151 BRUZZONE NC, 1990, 1ST Q REPORT BRUZZONE ND, 1987, FRUIT FLIES BRUZZONE NDA, 1990, UNPUB ENTOMOLOGIA EX CALKINS CO, 1987, USDA ARS MEDFLY PILO CALKINS CO, 1989, J APPL ENTOMOL, V108, P401 CHAMBERS DL, 1977, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V22, P289 CHAMBERS DL, 1984, ADV CHALLENGES INSEC CORBETT J, 1984, SOCIAL IMPACT ANAL D CROSBY PB, 1979, CALIDAD NO CUESTA AR CROSBY PB, 1985, QUALITY IS FREE ECONOMOPOULOS AP, 1988, GENETIC SEXING MEDIT ECONOMOPOULOS AP, 1990, UNPUB ENTOMOLOGIA EX FAY HAC, 1988, J APPL ENTOMOL, V105, P496 FEIGENBAUM AV, 1983, TOTAL QUALITY CONTRO FITZGIBBON CT, 1987, DESIGN PROGRAM EVALU KING JA, 1987, ASSESS PROGRAM IMPLE KNIPLING EF, 1979, USDA AGR HDB, V512 LINDSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1989, JUN IIASA INT C DIFF LORRAINE H, 1989, FRUIT FLIES BIOL NAT LORRAINE H, 1991, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V40, P1 ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION RUHM ME, 1981, ENTOMOL EXP APPL, V29, P237 SCHWARZ AJ, 1985, FLA ENTOMOL, V68, P467 STECHER BM, 1987, FOCUS EVALUATION STEVENS L, 1988, COMMUNICATION VARGAS RI, 1989, FRUIT FLIES BIOL NAT NR 32 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1992 VL 41 IS 1 BP 57 EP 69 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ236 UT ISI:A1992GZ23600005 ER PT J AU CHOWDHURY, S SAHU, KC TI FORECASTING INDIA OIL AND GAS-RESERVES AND PRODUCTION POTENTIAL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID RESOURCES AB Forecasting the discovery of a country's oil and gas reserves and their production potential is one of the most enigmatic problems besieging scientists all over the world. There is little consensus among experts following different methods in estimating these values. This article reviews various methods available for the estimation of hydrocarbon reserves. In India, forecasting the discovery of oil and gas reserves is limited to prognostication of reserves. The estimation of reserves based on statistical methods has not yet been reported in or for India. Employing a "rate-of-effort" approach, the authors envisage India's ultimate recoverable reserves to be 1900 million tons of oil and 1425 billion cubic meters of gas. This article suggests that the lag period of the production curve to attain the same level/rate of the discovery curve would closely follow a third-order exponential delay, contrary to the belief of Hubbert's "discrete" or "pipeline" delay. When exploration and exploitation costs hold no bar, it is observed that this peak production of oil would be 47.3 million tons in the year 2001 and that of gas 40.8 billion cubic meters in the year 2003. Because of rising costs, future exploration and exploitation activities would be judged by their economic merit. As a result, the discovery of oil and gas reserves would be restricted and governed by economic criteria. The concept of economic limit has been introduced in this paper to determine economically recoverable reserves, limiting peak production, and year of peaking. The likely values of economically recoverable reserves have been estimated to be 1560 million tons of oil and 975 billion cubic meters of gas. It is likely that oil production will decline after peaking at 38.8 million tons in 1999. Gas production will similarly decline after a peak production of 28 billion cubic meters in 2001. Dwindling oil and gas reserves and their rising prices would pave the way for substitutes. C1 INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,KHARAGPUR 721302,W BENGAL,INDIA. CR ARPS JJ, 1971, J PETROLEUM GEOL JUN, P671 DAVIS W, 1958, OIL GAS J 0224, P105 ELLIOTT MA, 1968, J PETROLEUM TECH FEB, P135 FORRESTER JW, 1961, IND DYNAMICS HAUN JD, 1975, METHODS ESTIMATING V, P1 HEDBERG HD, 1975, METHODS ESTIMATING V, P161 HEWETT DF, 1929, AIME TECHNICAL PUBLI, V183, P65 HOTARD DG, 1983, ENERGY MODELS STUDIE, P353 HUBBERT MK, 1967, AAPG BULL, V51, P2207 HUBBERT MK, 1986, AAPG BULL, V50, P2504 JONES RW, 1975, METHODS ESTIMATING V, P186 KAYSEN C, 1972, FOREIGN AFF, V50, P660 KHAZZOOM JD, 1971, BELL J EC MANAGE SPR MACKAY LH, 1975, METHODS ESTIMATING V, P76 MALLORY WW, 1975, METHODS ESTIMATING V MEADOWS DL, 1974, GLOBAL EQUILIBRIUM, P291 MEYNERD HW, 1975, SCIENCE, V190, P337 MOORE CL, 1965, MAY OP RES SOC AM BO PORTER JW, 1975, METHODS ESTIMATING V RYON JM, 1966, J PETROLEUM TECH MAR, P231 STANNAGE W, 1979, WORLD OIL OCT, P113 URI ND, 1974, WORLD OIL FEB, P61 URI ND, 1982, LONG RANGE PLANN, V15, P86 WEEKS LG, 1975, METHODS ESTIMATING V, P31 WHITE DA, 1979, AAPG BULL, V63, P2183 WIORKOWSKI JJ, 1981, J AM STAT ASSOC, V76, P534 ZAPP AD, 1962, US GEOLOGICAL SURV H, V1142, P36 NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1992 VL 41 IS 1 BP 71 EP 95 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ236 UT ISI:A1992GZ23600006 ER PT J AU BODGER, PS MAY, DG TI A SYSTEM DYNAMICS ENERGY-MODEL OF NEW-ZEALAND SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SUBSTITUTION; CONSUMPTION AB Following on from the replication of the historical records of world primary energy market shares, this article shows that the system dynamics model developed is also applicable to a small country where specific energy resources are available. Despite the lack of early 20th century oil and natural gas discovery, the future of New Zealand lies in a dominant market share of the latter. C1 TELECOM S LTD,CHRISTCHURCH,NEW ZEALAND. RP BODGER, PS, UNIV CANTERBURY,DEPT ELECT & ELECTR ENGN,CHRISTCHURCH 1,NEW ZEALAND. CR BAINES JT, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P267 BAINES JT, 1985, ENERGY ANAL REV THEO BODGER PS, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P27 BODGER PS, 1988, ENERGY SYST POLICY, V12, P167 BODGER PS, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P425 GOLD T, 1980, ENERGY EXPLORATION E, V1, P88 GOLD T, 1980, SCI AM, V242 GOLD T, 1983, GEOPHYSICS LEADING E, V2, P38 MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 ODUM HT, 1976, 41ST N AM WILDL NAT ODUM HT, 1976, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY NR 11 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD FEB PY 1992 VL 41 IS 1 BP 97 EP 106 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ236 UT ISI:A1992GZ23600007 ER PT J AU AFUAH, AN UTTERBACK, JM TI THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW SUPERCOMPUTER ARCHITECTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB A model on the dynamics of innovation among multiple productive units and other innovation models are used to examine the emergence of a new supercomputer architecture. Data on entry and exit of firms producing supercomputers having three distinctive architectures appear to conform to the main hypotheses of the models examined. Based on these data, the authors speculate that the new generation of massively parallel supercomputers will replace the currently accepted von Neumann architecture for supercomputers, although the ascendant dominant architecture cannot yet be spelled out in detail. Complementary assets, especially software, and chance events will all play a part in determining which massively parallel designs may ultimately be used for most supercomputing applications. C1 MASSACHUSETTS INST TECHNOL,SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,50 MEM DR E52541,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. CR 1987, SUPERCOMPUTING INFOR ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 KELLEY L, 1988, BUSINESS AM 0411 MUELLER DC, 1969, CANADIAN J EC, V2, P570 TEECE DJ, 1987, COMPETITIVE CHALLENG TUSHMAN ML, 1986, ADMIN SCI QUART, V31, P439 UTTERBACK JM, 1986, MANAGEMENT PRODUCTIV UTTERBACK JM, 1987, PRODUCT PROCESS CHAN UTTERBACK JM, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION NR 10 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1991 VL 40 IS 4 BP 315 EP 328 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ024 UT ISI:A1991GZ02400001 ER PT J AU SUTHERLAND, JW TI MODEL-BASE CENTERED PLANNING SUPPORT SYSTEMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Organizations are increasingly being urged by both management and organization theorists to adopt a contingency planning posture of some kind. Yet there is little in the way of work done on the definition or development of the sorts of technical facilities-procedural or instrumental-that could be used to anchor computer-centered planning support systems. One approach that seems particularly promising would be to focus such systems around formal model-base structures. This paper offers suggestions as to what model-base centered planning support systems might look like and how they might be moved toward operational significance. RP SUTHERLAND, JW, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIV,DEPT INFORMAT SYST,RICHMOND,VA 23284. CR AGUILAR F, 1967, SCANNING BUSINESS EN ANDERSON BDO, 1973, NETWORK ANAL SYNTHES BHATNAGAR SK, 1986, NETWORK ANAL TECHNIQ FURUKAWA N, 1980, RECENT DEV MARKOV DE HOFER C, 1975, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT J, V18 HOWARD RA, 1971, DYNAMIC PROBABILISTI, V2 IOSIFESCU M, 1980, FINITE MARKOV PROCES LAL R, 1988, MANAGE SCI, V34, P10 LAWRENCE PR, 1967, ORG ENV MANAGING DIF LINNEMAN R, 1983, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V16 MARTIN J, 1967, BAYESIAN DECISION PR NAKAI T, 1986, MATH OPER RES, V11, P2 NEUTS MF, 1981, MATRIX GEOMETRIC SOL PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SAGE AP, 1984, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V14, P1 SCHOUTEN D, 1983, MARKOV DECISION PROC SUTHERLAND JW, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34 SUTHERLAND JW, 1989, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V20, P1 SUTHERLAND JW, 1989, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT THOMAS PS, 1980, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V13 WHITE CC, 1989, OPER RES, V37, P5 NR 22 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1991 VL 40 IS 4 BP 329 EP 354 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ024 UT ISI:A1991GZ02400002 ER PT J AU CUNNINGHAM, JB FARQUHARSON, J HULL, D TI A PROFILE OF THE HUMAN FEARS OF TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID OFFICE AB Workers often express a great deal of concern over managerial policies and tactics in introducing technological change. This article summarizes 11 concerns that workers in the telecommunications industry "pressed about the changes they were experiencing. Many of these concerns arise from misunderstandings and miscommunications of managerial policies and are based on beliefs and expectations rather than fact and accurate information. It is argued that management should be concerned with these issues when implementing technological changes. Ideally, policies relating to the implementation of technological changes might be based on employee input and involvement. At a minimum, managers have an obligation to clarify policies regarding technological change so that rumors and false expectations do not dominate. RP CUNNINGHAM, JB, UNIV VICTORIA,SCH PUBLIC ADM,VICTORIA V8R 6G3,BC,CANADA. CR BAVELAS A, 1942, SOCIOMETRY, V5, P371 BAVELAS A, 1983, J INFORM SCI, V5, P169 BAVELAS JB, METHOD CONSTRUCTING BENNIS WG, 1965, TRANSACTION, V12, P31 BORUM F, 1980, ACTA SOCIOLOGIC, V23, P287 BRAVERMAN H, 1974, LABOR MONOPOLY CAPIT BROWN WP, 1980, POLICY STUD J, V17, P181 BURNHAM D, 1984, RISE COMPUTER STATE CHAO GT, 1986, J APPL PSYCHOL, V71, P70 CHERNS A, 1976, HUM RELAT, V29, P783 COOLEY M, ECON IND DEMOCRACY, V1, P523 CROMPTON R, 1984, WHITE COLLAR PROLETA CUNNINGHAM JB, 1976, HUM RELAT, V29, P215 CUNNINGHAM JB, 1983, HUM RELAT, V36, P403 CUNNINGHAM JB, 1984, QUALITY WORKING LIFE CUNNINGHAM JB, 1988, RELATIONS IND, V43, P394 DAVIS LE, 1975, QUALITY WORKING LIFE DUBIN R, 1978, THEORY BUILDING ELLUL J, 1964, TECHNOLOGICAL SOC GARDNER ND, 1974, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V34, P106 GERSTEIN M, 1982, J BUS STRAT, V3, P112 GERSTEIN MS, 1987, TECHNOLOGY CONNECTIO, P7 GLASER BG, 1967, DISCOVERY GROUNDED T GROSS BM, 1970, SOC POLICY, V10, P44 HERZBERG F, 1976, MANAGERIAL CHOICE BE KERLINGER FN, 1973, F BEHAVIORAL RES KLEINSCHROD WA, 1986, CRITICAL ISSUES OFFI LAV IJ, 1982, MANAGING INNOVATION MCFARLAN FW, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V64, P101 MCLAUGHLIN D, IMPACT LABOR UNIONS PASSMORE WA, 1978, SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTE PATRICKSON M, 1986, J OCCUP PSYCHOL, V59, P1 PEITCHINS SG, 1983, RELTIONS IND IND REL, V38, P104 PORTER ME, 1987, HARVARD BUS REV, V65, P153 RAJAN A, 1985, FUTURES, V17, P410 SALEH SD, 1989, CANADIAN J ADM STUDI, V6, P42 STEVENSON JH, 1989, IMPACT OFFICE TECHNO TOOLEY JC, 1981, NETWORK OPERATIONS 5 TRIST EL, 1951, HUM RELAT, V4, P3 TRIST EL, 1963, ORG CHOICE WHYTE WF, 1967, HUM ORGAN, V26, P22 WILKINSON B, 1983, SHOPFLOOR POLITICS NR 42 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1991 VL 40 IS 4 BP 355 EP 370 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ024 UT ISI:A1991GZ02400003 ER PT J AU LEBRASSEUR, R NASIEROWSKI, W TI TRAINING AND THE APPLICATION OF COMPUTER-BASED TECHNOLOGY - THE CASE OF ONTARIO MANUFACTURING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB The reality of global markets has challenged Canadian manufacturing companies to improve their competitiveness, primarily through the introduction of computer-based technologies. It is our contention that, in order to benefit from the use of technology, consistent attention is required to employee skills and training Focusing on the Ontario manufacturing sector, this article explores, within an organizational context, the role of employee skills and training in relation to technology, product, and market changes. It concludes with a discussion of the contextual pressures on management and the likely future developments. C1 UNIV NEW BRUNSWICK,FAC ADM,POB 4400,FREDERICTON E3B 5A3,NB,CANADA. CR 1987, CAD CAM SYNDICATE ST 1988, ONTARIO MINISTRY SKI 1989, BUSINESS WEEK 1989, CANADIAN MANUFACTURE 1989, NAIONAL PATTERNS R D *CAN LAB MARK PROD, 1989, Q LAB MARK PROD REV *CAN LAB MARK PROD, 1990, BUS LAB LEAD SPEAK O *CAN MAN ASS, 1989, CAN MAN SURV FIN *CAN MAN ASS, 1989, CAN TRAD IND *CAN MIN SUPPL SER, 1988, MAK TECHN WORK INN J *CAN STAT, 1989, APPL IND R D, V13 *CAN STAT, 1989, SCI TECHN IND *CAN STAT, 1989, SURV MAN TECHN CHAR, V13 *CAN STAT, 1989, SURV MAN TECHN LEAD, V13 *CAN STAT, 1990, 1990 CAN YB *CURR COOP LYBR, 1985, EMPL NEW TECHN ONT M *EV RES CORP, 1985, CADCAM65 MARK PAP *MIN IND TRAD TECH, 1985, ONT MARK PROF FLEX A *MIN IND TRAD TECH, 1989, COMP CAN US TECHN AD *MIN SKILL DEV, 1987, PROP CREAT CAN TRAIN *ONT MANP COMM, 1986, TRAIN IND SURV EMPL *ONT MIN SKILLS DE, 1987, TRAIN TECHN CHANG RO *ONT MIN SKILLS DE, 1989, BUILD TRAIN SYST 199 *ONT MIN SKILLS DE, 1989, REP HUM RES TRAIN NE *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1986, PROD IND PROSP POL *PREM COUNC PROV O, 1988, COMP NEW GLOB EC REP, V1 *WOODS GORD MAN CO, 1988, HUM RES STUD BEER M, 1984, MANAGING HUMAN ASSET BENIMADHU P, 1989, 4189 C BOARD CAN REP BERGER S, 1989, SCI AM, V260, P39 BETCHERMAN G, 1986, WORKING TECHNOLOGY S CASNERLOTTO J, 1988, SUCCESSFUL TRAINING CROOKELL H, 1987, CANADIAN J ADM SCI, V4, P353 FELDMAN S, 1989, ORGAN DYN, P57 FOMBRUN CJ, 1984, STRATEGIC HUMAN RESO GOLDHAR JD, 1983, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P141 HENDRY C, 1988, 6TH ANN ASTON UMIST JAIKUMAR R, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV JOHNSON SB, 1984, SLOAN MANAGEMENT SPR KAPLAN RS, 1982, WP8283 CARN U GRAD S LARSON P, 1989, 3689E C BOARD CAN RE LEBRASSEUR R, 1991, IN PRESS TRAINING MO PETTIGREW A, 1988, COMPETITIVENESS HUMA WALTON RE, 1987, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P98 NR 44 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1991 VL 40 IS 4 BP 371 EP 388 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ024 UT ISI:A1991GZ02400004 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND HUMAN-RIGHTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, JF COATES INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1991 VL 40 IS 4 BP 389 EP 391 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GZ024 UT ISI:A1991GZ02400005 ER PT J AU HERBIG, PA TI THE RISE AND FALL OF GREAT-BRITAIN TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP - IS THE UNITED-STATES FOLLOWING IN BRITAIN FOOTSTEPS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION RP HERBIG, PA, JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIV,COLL COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT & MKT,JACKSONVILLE,AL 36265. CR GRAHAM RJ, 1984, HUM SYST MANAGE, V4, P189 HOFSTEDE G, 1984, CULTURES CONSEQUENCE LIEBENAU J, 1988, CHALLENGE NEW TECHNO MASON D, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V3, P205 PAVITT K, 1980, TECHNICAL INNOVATION RUTTAN VW, 1988, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V36, S247 SAUVY A, 1966, THEORIE GENERALE POP, V2 SEOTE, 1985, IWORLD DEV, V13, P409 WEBER MK, 1976, PROTESTANT ETHIC SPI WHITEHUNT K, 1985, TECHNOVATION, V3, P139 WIENER MJ, 1981, ENGLISH CULTURE DECL NR 11 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1991 VL 40 IS 3 BP 213 EP 222 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GM814 UT ISI:A1991GM81400001 ER PT J AU VANDIJK, JWA TI FORESIGHT STUDIES - A NEW APPROACH IN ANTICIPATORY POLICY MAKING IN THE NETHERLANDS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ROTTERDAM,PUBL MANAGEMENT,ROTTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. RP VANDIJK, JWA, MINIST ECON AFFAIRS,POB 20101,2500 EC THE HAGUE,NETHERLANDS. CR *ADV COMM TECHN PO, 1987, INT KNOWL MARK *I FUT TECHN, 1988, FUT TECHN JAP FOR YE *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1987, REV NAT SCI TECHN *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1990, CHOOS PRIOR SCI TECH DOSI G, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE EDQUIST E, 1989, SEMINAR NATIONAL SYS ERGAS H, 1986, DOES TECHNOLOGY POLI ETZIONI A, 1967, PUBLIC ADM REV DEC, P385 IRVINE J, 1989, RES FORESIGHT CREATI KAUFMANN FX, 1985, GUIDANCE CONTROL EVA MANSFIELD E, 1977, Q J ECON, V91, P221 MARTIN BR, 1989, RES FORESIGHT PRIORI MILES I, 1990, SCI TECHNOLOGY RES L PETERS GB, 1989, POLITICS BUREAUCRACY ROOBEEK AJM, 1990, TECHNOLOGY RACE ANAL SCHMEDER G, 1988, FUTURIBLES, V124 SCHNAARS SP, 1989, MEGAMISTAKES FORECAS STONEMAN P, 1987, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA VOS CM, 1989, RES POLICY, V18, P51 WATERMAN RH, 1988, RENEWAL FACTOR BEST, P26 NR 20 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1991 VL 40 IS 3 BP 223 EP 234 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GM814 UT ISI:A1991GM81400002 ER PT J AU PARAYIL, G TI TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE AS A PROBLEM-SOLVING ACTIVITY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNICAL CHANGE; INNOVATION RP PARAYIL, G, IIT,DEPT HUMANITIES,CHICAGO,IL 60616. CR ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 ABERNATHY WJ, 1983, IND RENAISSANCE ABERNATHY WJ, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P3 ABROMOVITZ M, 1971, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA, P320 BASALLA G, 1988, EVOLUTION TECHNOLOGI BIGGS SD, 1980, CERES, V13, P23 BINSWANGER HP, 1978, INDUCED INNOVATION T BORLAUG N, 1972, CIMMYT REPORT TRANSL, V3 BRASS PR, 1982, SCI POLITICS AGR REV, P103 BRYANT L, 1976, TECHNOL CULT, V17, P432 CAMPBELL DT, 1974, PHILOS K POPPER, P413 CHENGAPPA R, 1989, INDIA TODAY 0415, P78 CLARK KB, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P235 CLARK N, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P197 COOMBS R, 1987, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA DALRYMPLE D, 1986, DEV SPREAD HIGH YIEL DALRYMPLE DG, 1979, AGR HIST, V53, P704 DEBRESSON C, 1987, J ECON ISSUES, V21, P751 DEGREGORI TR, 1985, THEORY TECHNOLOGY CO DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 FRANSMAN M, 1986, TECHNOLOGY EC DEV FREEMAN C, 1981, DESIGN INNOVATION LO FREEMAN C, 1982, EC IND INNOVATION GAMSER MS, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P711 GIBBONS M, 1974, RES PLLICY, V3 GILFILLAN SG, 1970, SOCIOLOGY INVENTION GRILICHES A, 1971, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA, P212 HANIESKI JF, 1973, TECHNOL CULT, V14, P535 HOPPER WD, 1978, DISTORTIONS AGR INCE, P69 HUME D, 1955, WRITINGS EC LAYTON ET, 1974, TECHNOL CULT, V15, P31 LELE U, 1989, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V37, P305 MAMDANI M, 1972, MYTH POPULATION CONT MANSFIELD E, 1971, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA, P284 MARX K, 1952, MANIFESTO COMMUNIST MARX K, 1967, CAPITAL, V1 MOSEMAN AH, 1970, BUILDING AGR RES SYS NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 PARAYIL G, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGY, V33 PARAYIL G, 1990, THESIS VIRGINIA POLY PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PINCH T, 1987, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION POPPER KR, 1963, CONJECTURES REFUTATI PORTER M, 1983, RES TECHNOLOGICAL IN, V1 PRASAD C, 1981, ELEMENTS STRUCTURES PRICE DJD, 1965, TECHNOL CULT, V6, P553 READ H, 1974, PARTNERS INDIA BUILD ROSENBERG N, 1969, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V18, P1 ROSENBERG N, 1978, BRITANNIA BRIDGE GEN ROSENBLOOM R, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA RUTTAN V, 1978, INDUCED INNOVATIONS, P327 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SAVIOTTI PP, 1983, FUTURES, V18, P773 SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHOT J, 1989, OCT ANN M SOC HIST T SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES, V1 SCHUMPETER JA, 1950, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SINGH DP, 1982, SCI POLITICS AGR REV, P165 SMITH A, 1976, WEALTH NATIONS SOLO RA, 1972, INDUCING TECHNOLOGIC SOLOW R, 1971, EC DEV, P344 SUBRAMANIAM C, 1979, NEW STRATEGY INDIAN USHER AP, 1954, HIST MECHANICAL INVE USHER AP, 1971, EC DEV, P43 VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION NR 65 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1991 VL 40 IS 3 BP 235 EP 247 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GM814 UT ISI:A1991GM81400003 ER PT J AU DINAR, A TI MEASURING KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION OF AN AGRICULTURAL-RESEARCH SYSTEM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID EXPENDITURES; EXTENSION; ISRAEL RP DINAR, A, UNIV CALIF DAVIS,DEPT AGR ECON,DAVIS,CA 95616. CR ARAJI AA, 1978, AM J AGR ECON, V60, P964 ARNDT TM, 1978, RESOURCE ALLOCATION BUSCH L, 1983, SCI AGR POLITICS RES DINAR A, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P145 EVENSON R, 1967, J FARM EC, V49 EVENSON R, 1975, AGR RES PRODUCTIVITY GELB E, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P321 GRILICHES Z, 1964, AM ECON REV, V54, P961 GUTTMAN J, 1978, J POLITICAL EC, V86, P467 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV HUFFMAN WE, 1981, AM J AGR ECON, V63, P104 KATZ S, 1975, MINERVA, V13, P152 KNUDSON M, 1979, AM J AGR ECON, V61, P70 MICHAEL A, 1968, MADA, V13 NORDHUS DW, 1969, INVENTION GROWTH WEL WHITE FC, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P47 NR 16 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1991 VL 40 IS 3 BP 249 EP 259 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GM814 UT ISI:A1991GM81400004 ER PT J AU UDWADIA, FE KUMAR, KR TI IMPACT OF CUSTOMER COCONSTRUCTION IN PRODUCT SERVICE MARKETS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV SO CALIF,SCH BUSINESS ADM,DEPT DECIS SYST,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. UNIV SO CALIF,CIVIL ENGN,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. UNIV SO CALIF,MECH ENGN,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR ASSAEL H, 1981, CONSUMER BEHAVIOR MA CHAMBERLIN EH, 1962, THEORY MONOPOLISTIC CHASE RB, 1973, MANAGE SCI, V29, P1041 CHASE RB, 1978, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P137 CHASE RB, 1985, DS8511 U SO CAL SCH CRAIG P, 1989, IEEE SOFTWARE ENGEL JF, 1978, CONSUMER BEHAVIOR HAUSER JR, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P319 HOWARD JA, 1969, THEORY BUYER BEHAVIO JAIKUMAR R, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P69 KUMAR KR, 1988, MANAGE SCI, V34, P805 KUMAR KR, 1988, NATO ASI F, V49, P361 MCKENNA R, 1988, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P88 MOFFAT S, 1990, FORTUNE OCT, P132 NARAYANASWAMY K, 1987, IEEE T SOFTWARE ENG, V13, P324 NICOSIA FM, 1966, CONSUMER DECISION PR SASSER WE, 1978, MANAGEMENT SERVICE O SCACCHI W, 1988, JUN P SOFTW S TOK, P9 NR 18 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1991 VL 40 IS 3 BP 261 EP 272 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GM814 UT ISI:A1991GM81400005 ER PT J AU YUN, YC GI, HJ SOUNG, HK TI A DELPHI TECHNOLOGY-FORECASTING APPROACH USING A SEMI-MARKOV CONCEPT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 KOREA ADV INST SCI & TECHNOL,DEPT IND ENGN,POB 150,SEOUL 131,SOUTH KOREA. KOREA ADV INST SCI & TECHNOL,SYST ENGN RES INST,SEOUL 131,SOUTH KOREA. CR ASHITON AH, 1985, MANAGE SCI, V12, P1499 BLOOM MF, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P181 BROCKHAUS WL, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P103 CUNDIFF WE, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P173 CUNDIFF WE, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P189 DIETZ T, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P79 ENZER S, 1980, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V17, P211 ENZER S, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V171, P141 GENEST C, 1986, STATISTICAL SCI, V1, P39 HOWARD RA, 1971, DYNAMIC PROBABILISTI, V2 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI RIEGER WG, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P195 RIGGS WE, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P89 TUROFF M, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P309 NR 14 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1991 VL 40 IS 3 BP 273 EP 287 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GM814 UT ISI:A1991GM81400006 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI IMPLICATIONS OF DESERT STORM FOR FUTURE MILITARY OPERATIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR COATES JF, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P201 NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1991 VL 40 IS 3 BP 303 EP 305 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GM814 UT ISI:A1991GM81400009 ER PT J AU COHN, S TI PARADIGM DEBATES IN NUCLEAR COST FORECASTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID POWER; INNOVATION AB This article reviews the issues underlying current and past nuclear cost forecasting debates. The text and tables tally the history of forecasting errors and the range of current cost debate. The essay demonstrates that the positions of nuclear optimists and pessimists reflect different expectations of future development paths and are therefore relatively immune to falsification by existent empirical data. Drawing on recent trajectory models of technical change, the paper analogizes nuclear cost debates to paradigm debates over the fertility of different research agendas. The conclusion notes how viewing cost debates in paradigmatic terms potentially undermines technically deterministic theories of technical change. RP COHN, S, KNOX COLL,ECON,BOX 34,GALESBURG,IL 61401. CR 1964, NUCLEAR IND AUG, P39 1985, GROUNDSWELL, V8, P15 1988, ELECTR WORLD, V202, P52 1989, NUCL NEWS, V32, P56 *AT IND FOR STUD G, 1986, STAND NUCL POW PLANT *FORD F, 1977, NUCL POW ISS CHOIC *INV RESP RES CTR, 1975, 1975A SPEC REP *US AT EN COMM, 1962, CIV NUCL POW REP *US AT EN COMM, 1968, WASH1082 *US AT EN COMM, 1970, WASH1150 *US AT EN COMM, 1971, WASH117471 *US AT EN COMM, 1973, WASH117473 *US AT EN COMM, 1974, WASH117474 *US AT EN COMM, 1974, WASH1345 *US DOE, 1979, VE0009UC1380 *US DOE, 1987, EIA0511 *US EN INF ADM, 1988, DDE EIA00358812 BERNOW S, 1987, PUBLIC UTILITIES FOR, V120, P14 BERNOW S, 1988, ANAL NUCLEAR POWER P BIEWALD B, 1989, NUCLEAR POWER EC CON BORSON D, RUNAWAY COSTS RISING BOWERS HI, 1983, NUREG CR3500 ORNL TM BRANDFON WW, 1987, TRANSACTIONS S1, V56, P152 BUPP I, 1974, TRENDS LIGHT WATER R BUPP I, 1975, TECHNOL REV, V77, P14 BUPP I, 1978, LIGHT WATER HOW NUCL BURN D, 1978, NUCLEAR POWER ENERGY CANTOR R, 1988, RESOUR ENERG, V10, P315 CLARK N, 1987, FUTURES FEB, P26 CLEVELAND J, 1988, ORNL REV, V21, P79 COHN S, 1990, J ECON ISSUES, V24, P781 COMEY D, 1974, B ATOM SCI, V30, P23 COMEY D, 1975, B ATOM SCI, V31, P40 COWAN R, 1990, J ECON HIST, V50, P541 CRAWFORD WD, 1977, NUCLEAR POWER ITS FU DELENE JG, 1986, DOENE0078 DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 GARVEY G, 1977, NUCLEAR POWER SOCIAL HARDING J, 1975, FRIENDS EARTH, V2 HELLMANN R, 1983, COMPETITIVE EC NUCLE KOMANOFF C, 1976, POWER PLANT PERFORMA KOMANOFF C, 1977, NUCLEAR PLANT PERFOR KOMANOFF C, 1978, COMPARISON NUCLEAR C KOMANOFF C, 1981, POWER PLANT COST ESC KOMANOFF C, 1984, PUBLIC UTILITIES FOR, V14, P33 KOMANOFF C, 1985, NEW ENGLAND J PUBLIC, V1, P47 KRIESBERG J, FADING FAST RISING C KRIESBERG J, 1987, TOO COSTLY CONTINUE LANE J, 1955, 1ST P INT C PEAC US, V1 LANE J, 1969, ABUNDANT NUCLEAR ENE LILIENTHAL D, 1963, CHANGE HOPE BOMB LITTLE AD, 1968, COMPETITION NUCLEAR MEYERS ML, 1982, NONFUEL OPERATION MA MONTGOMERY WD, 1978, COST ESCALATION NUCL MOOZ W, 1978, COST ANAL LIGHT WATE MOOZ W, 1979, 2ND COST ANAL LIGHT NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 OKRENT D, 1981, NUCLEAR REACTOR SAFE PERL L, 1982, ATOMIC IND FORUM PHUNG DL, 1987, THEORY EVIDENCE USIN REYNOLDS A, 1982, PROJECTED COSTS ELEC RICCIO J, 1988, AGING NUCLEAR POWER RODDIS L, 1964, 1964 P AT IND FOR C, V2 ROSSIN AD, 1978, SCIENCE, V201, P582 SAHAL D, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P61 SATHAKIS GJ, 1964, ELECTR WORLD, V162, P50 SMITH G, 1966, NY TIMES 0410 SPORN P, 1969, TECHNOLOGY ENG EC THOMAS SD, 1988, REALITIES NUCLEAR PO WEINBERG AM, 1985, SECOND NUCLEAR ERA N WILLIAMS KA, 1987, ORNL6368 NR 71 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1991 VL 40 IS 2 BP 103 EP 130 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GE663 UT ISI:A1991GE66300001 ER PT J AU WOUDENBERG, F TI AN EVALUATION OF DELPHI SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DECISION-MAKING; GROUP JUDGMENT; ACCURACY; QUALITY RP WOUDENBERG, F, ENVIRONM HLTH SERV ROTTERDAM,DEPT SCI,POB 70032,3000 LP ROTTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. CR AMARA RC, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P415 AMENT RH, 1970, FUTURES, V1, P35 ARMSTRONG JS, 1985, LONG RANGE FORECASTI ASCHER W, 1978, FORECASTING APPRAISA, P4 BAMBERGER I, 1976, MANAGE INT REV, V16, P81 BARDECKI MJ, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P281 BENDER DA, 1969, FUTURES, V1, P289 BEST RJ, 1974, J MARKETING RES, V11, P447 BOJE DM, 1982, MANAGE SCI, V28, P1187 BROCKHAUS WL, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P127 BROCKHOFF K, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI BROWN B, 1964, P2986 RAND CORP BROWN B, 1969, RM5957PR RAND CORP CAMPBELL R, 1966, TEHSIS UCLA CLARK A, 1982, EVALUATION REV, V6, P79 COATES JF, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P193 CYPHERT FR, 1970, J TEACH EDUC, V3, P417 CYPHERT FR, 1971, PHI DELTA KAPPAN, V52, P272 DAGENAIS R, 1978, J GEN PSYCHOL, V98, P307 DALKEY N, 1963, MANAGE SCI, V9, P458 DALKEY N, 1967, P3704 RAND CORP DALKEY N, 1968, P3948 RAND CORP DALKEY N, 1969, FUTURES, V1, P541 DALKEY NC, 1969, FUTURES, V1, P408 DALKEY NC, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P283 DAVIS JH, 1973, PSYCHOL REV, V80, P97 DAWES RM, 1974, PSYCHOL BULL, V81, P95 DELBECQ AL, 1975, GROUP TECHNIQUES PRO DIETZ T, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P79 DODGE BJ, 1977, ED TECHNOLOGY APR, P58 EINHORN HJ, 1977, PSYCHOL BULL, V84, P158 ERFFMEYER RC, 1984, GROUP ORGAN STUD, V9, P509 ERFFMEYER RC, 1986, GROUP ORGAN STUD, V11, P120 FARQUHAR JA, 1970, RM6271PR RAND CORP FISCHER GW, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V28, P96 FORD DA, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P139 GOLDSCHMIDT PG, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P195 GORDON TJ, 1964, P2982 RAND CORP GRABBE EM, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P143 GUSTAFSON DH, 1973, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V9, P280 HAMPLE DJ, 1975 INT COMM ASS C HAYS WL, 1981, STATISTICS HELMER O, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA HELMER O, 1977, FUTURES, V9, P17 HILL KQ, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P179 HOGARTH RM, 1975, J AM STAT ASSOC, V70, P271 HUBER GP, 1974, DECISION SCI, V5, P430 HUCKFELDT VE, 1974, TECH FORE SOCIAL CHA, V6, P75 JILLSON IA, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P221 JOLSON MA, 1971, J MARKETING RES, V8, P443 KAHNEMAN D, 1982, JUDGMENT UNCERTAINTY KAPLAN A, 1949, P39 RAND CORP LORGE I, 1958, PSYCHOL BULL, V55, P337 LUDLOW J, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MARTINO JP, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P293 MARTINO JP, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P355 MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEEHL PE, 1954, CLIN VERSUS STATISTI MEEHL PE, 1965, J EXPT RES PERSONALI, V1, P27 MILKOVICH GT, 1972, USE DELPHI PROCEDURE MINER FC, 1979, ACAD MANAGE J, V22, P81 MOSKOWITZ H, 1979, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V2, P67 MULGRAVE NW, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MURNIGHAN JK, 1981, TECNOLOGICAL FORECAS, P55 MURRAY TJ, 1979, URBAN SYSTEMS, V4, P153 NELSON BW, 1978, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V12, P41 NISBETT RE, 1980, HUMAN INFERENCE STRA OVERBURY RE, 1969, LONG RANGE PLANN, V1, P76 PARENTE FJ, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P173 PFEIFFER J, 1968, NEW LOOK ED SYSTEMS PILL J, 1971, SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNI, V5, P57 PRESS SJ, 1978, J AM STAT ASSOC, V73, P526 QUADE ES, 1967, P3529 RAND CORP RAUCH W, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15, P159 RESCHER N, 1967, J VALUE INQUIRY, V1, P21 RESCHER N, 1969, VALUES FUTURE RIGGS WE, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P89 ROHRBAUGH J, 1979, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V24, P73 SACK J, 1974, THESIS ARIZONA STATE SACKMAN H, 1975, DELPHI CRITIQUE SAHAL D, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P165 SAHR RC, 1970, WP5 I FUT SALANCIK JR, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V5, P243 SCHEELE DS, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P215 SCHEIBE M, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI SEAVER DA, 1978, 1977 P INT C CYB SOC SHNEIDERMAN MV, 1988, AUTOM REMOTE CONTR 1, V49, P547 SKUTSCH M, 1973, SOCIOECON PLANN SCI, V7, P305 STEWART TR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P159 TUROFF M, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P149 VANDIJK JAGM, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V37, P293 VANVENDE AH, 1974, ACAD MANAGE J, V17, P605 VINOKUR A, 1969, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V13, P207 VONHOLSTEIN CAS, 1972, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V8, P139 WEAVER WT, 1971, PHI DELTA KAPPAN, V52, P267 WELTY G, 1972, ACAD MANAGE J, V15, P121 WELTY G, 1974, DEV METHODOLOGY SOCI WELTY GA, 1971, B INT STAT I, V54, P403 WISE G, 1976, FUTURES, V8, P411 NR 99 TC 37 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1991 VL 40 IS 2 BP 131 EP 150 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GE663 UT ISI:A1991GE66300002 ER PT J AU DAVIS, CH FITZSIMMONS, JA TI THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR-POWER IN THE UNITED-STATES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID DELPHI AB Consensus was reached among a group of 76 industry executives and key state and federal energy officials on many nuclear energy policy issues. The study employed the Delphi technique, an iterative consensus-building procedure, with three rounds of questionnaires administered over a period of 6 months. The questionnaire contained 48 questions dealing with issues related to management, technology, safety, the environment, economic considerations, government, and regulatory matters. Participants in the study included 37 industry experts (executives of utility companies, reactor manufacturers, and architect-engineering firms) and 39 nonindustry experts (state utility regulators, state energy officials, Nuclear Regulatory Commission members, and congressional staff members). C1 UNIV TEXAS,DEPT MANAGEMENT,AUSTIN,TX 78712. SW TEXAS STATE UNIV,STAT & MANAGEMENT SCI,SAN MARCOS,TX 78666. CR 1988, COST NUCLEAR POW OCT, P52 1989, NEW RULES COULD 0408, A5 GARDE VD, 1985, LONG RANGE PLANN, V18, P73 GRAY JE, 1988, OCT AM NUCL SOC EUR KAKU M, 1982, NUCLEAR POWER BOTH S LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LIPPMANN TW, 1989, ALBUQUERQUE J 0730, D1 MOORHOUSE JC, 1986, ELECTRIC POWER DEREG MURPHY AW, 1976, NUCLEAR POWER CONTRO PASQUALETTI MJ, 1984, NUCLEAR POWER ASSESS ROTHMAN S, 1982, PUBLIC OPINION AUG, P47 SCHNEIDER K, 1987, AUSTIN AM STATE 1217 SCHURR SH, 1980, ENERGY AM FUTURE TUROFF M, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P149 WEAVER LE, 1985, VITAL SPEECHES DAY, V51, P309 NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1991 VL 40 IS 2 BP 151 EP 164 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GE663 UT ISI:A1991GE66300003 ER PT J AU TARR, SC TI MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGY INTO A BUSINESS - A KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS CASE-STUDY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR 1987, RES MANAGE, V30, P4 *US NAT RES COUNC, 1987, REP TASK FORC MAN TE ALLISON GT, 1969, AM POLIT SCI REV, V63, P689 ANDERSON DF, 1977, THESIS MIT BURKE J, 1978, CONNECTIONS, R7 CAVUSGIL ST, 1985, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, P218 CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS ERDILEK A, 1985, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, P252 LEONARDBARTON D, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P102 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MAHLER EG, 1989, ADV ISSUES MANA 0919 MONGER RF, 1988, MASTERING TECHNOLOGY, P8 ROBERTS EB, 1979, RES MANAGEMENT, V26 SCHON DA, 1969, FACTORS TRANSFER TEC SHARIF MN, 1987, TECHNOLOGY ATLAS INT, P28 STANDKE KH, 1988, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V3, P325 STEINBRUNER JD, 1974, CYBERNETIC THEORY DE TARR SC, 1990, THESIS PORTLAND STAT NR 18 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1991 VL 40 IS 2 BP 165 EP 182 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GE663 UT ISI:A1991GE66300004 ER PT J AU ELBOIMDROR, R TI SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE USSR - SOME PERSONAL REFLECTIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ELBOIMDROR, R, HEBREW UNIV JERUSALEM,EDUC POLICY PLANNING & ADM,JERUSALEM,ISRAEL. CR BITOV A, PUSHKIN HOUSE NR 1 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1991 VL 40 IS 2 BP 189 EP 197 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GE663 UT ISI:A1991GE66300006 ER PT J AU LORRAINE, H TI THE CALIFORNIA 1980 MEDFLY ERADICATION PROGRAM - AN ANALYSIS OF DECISION-MAKING UNDER NONROUTINE CONDITIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MEDITERRANEAN FRUIT-FLIES; QUALITY AB This discussion of the 1980 Medfly Program in San Jose, California, addresses the problems decision makers encountered when they tried to translate theory into action under nonroutine conditions. The participants viewed the medfly problem from three perspectives which are termed in this study rational-technical, organizational, and cognitive. Each perspective supplied decision makers with rules of thumb and assumptions that served to focus attention and, at the same time, to blind them to information that turned out to be crucial under nonroutine conditions. In the context of controversy and public scrutiny, decision makers faced incentives that encouraged them to maintain a routine problem definition and to inhibit cross-cueing between the perspectives. The perspectives were applied sequentially instead of interactively during the problem-solving process, each filtering out a different set of information. As a result, decision makers were sometimes unable to determine important areas of uncertainty, identify and interpret feedback messages, and respond adaptively. These limitations handicapped their ability to translate the sterile insect technique theory into program activities and to assemble an organization capable of faithfully implementing tasks and routines. RP LORRAINE, H, USDA,ANIM & PLANT HLTH INSPECT SERV,S&T,AMER EMBASSY,GUATEMALA APO,MIAMI,FL 34024. CR *CDFA DIV PLANT IN, 1985, PEST DET EM PROJ BRA *CDFA DIV PLANT IN, 1989, ACT PLAN MED FRUIT *USDA AN PLANT HL, 1985, PLANT PROT QUAR EM P ALLISON GT, 1969, AM POLIT SCI REV, V63, P689 ALLISON GT, 1971, ESSENCE DECISION EXP ALLMAN WF, 1986, SCIENCE 86 JUL, P11 ANDERSON DF, 1977, THESIS MIT BENVENISTE G, 1977, POLITICS EXPERTISE BIDDLE W, 1986, DISCOVER, V7, P38 BOLLER EF, 1977, IOBCWPRS19775 B BOLLER EF, 1981, Z ANGEW ENTOMOL, V92, P67 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BOWSER H, 1986, SCI DIGEST JUL, P50 BURNS T, 1968, MANAGEMENT INNOVATIO CALKINS CO, 1989, J APPL ENTOMOL, V108, P401 CAREY JP, 1990, UC DAVIS MAGAZIN MAY CAREY JR, 1990, COMMUNICATION 0326 CHAMBERS DL, 1990, COMMUNICATION CHURCHILLSTANLA.C, 1981, COMMUNICATION 0504 CHURCHILLSTANLA.C, 1983, COMMUICATION 0621 CHURCHILLSTANLA.C, 1983, COMMUNICATION 0629 CORMIER A, 1984, COMMUNICATION MAY CUNNINGHAM R, 1983, COMMUNICATION 0531 CURCHILLSTANLAN.C, 1982, COMMUNICATION 0621 CURCHILLSTANLAN.C, 1986, J ECON ENTOMOL, V79, P614 CURCHILLSTANLAN.C, 1989, WORKING PAPER SERIES CYERT RM, 1963, BEHAVIORAL THEORY FI ELMORE RF, 1978, PUBLIC POLICY, V26, P185 FEINSTEIN D, 1990, COMMUNICATION 0726 FLINT ML, 1981, INTRO INTEGRATED PES GRANBERRY W, 1981, COMMUNICATION 0506 GRANBERRY W, 1981, COMMUNICATION 0727 ITO Y, 1976, APPL ENTOMOL ZOOL, V11, P139 JANIS IL, 1972, VICTIMS GROUPTHINK KANTER RM, 1984, CHANGE MASTERS KAUFMAN H, 1960, FOREST RANGER KNIPLING EF, 1979, USDA HDB, V512 LAWRENCE PR, 1967, ORG ENV MANAGING DIF LEE GB, 1982, APHIS8160 USDA AN PL LEVEEN EP, 1989, ERADICATION EXOTIC P LINSTONE HA, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P275 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1989, JUN IIASA INT C DIFF LORRAINE H, 1989, FRUIT FLIES BIOL NAT LORRAINE H, 1989, WORKING PAPER SERIES MARCH J, 1958, ORGANIZATIONS MARCH JG, 1979, AMBIGUITY CHOICE ORG MAZUR A, 1977, MINERVA, V11, P243 MAZUR A, 1981, DYNAMICS TECHNICAL C MELTZNER AJ, 1983, POLICY ORG MORGAN G, 1986, IMAGES ORG PATTON P, 1983, COMMUNICATION 0517 PERKINS JH, 1982, EXPERTS INSECTICIDE PERROW C, 1967, AM SOCIOL REV, V32, P194 PETERS T, 1988, THRIVING CHAOS PETERS TJ, 1982, SEARCH EXCELLENCE SCRIBNER J, 1982, COMMUNICATION SIMON HA, 1947, ADM BEHAVIOR STEINBRUNER JD, 1974, CYBERNETIC THEORY DE TASSEN R, 1982, COMMUNICATION 0727 TASSEN R, 1989, WORKING PAPER SERIES THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 TYKSINSKI M, 1981, UNPUB BUG STOPS HERE, V102 WOODWARD J, 1965, IND ORG THEORY PRACT NR 65 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1991 VL 40 IS 1 BP 1 EP 32 PG 32 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GC308 UT ISI:A1991GC30800001 ER PT J AU UDWADIA, FE MITROFF, II TI CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND THE ORGANIZATIONAL MIND - MULTIPLE MODELS FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT FROM FIELD DATA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV SO CALIF,SCH BUSINESS,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. UNIV SO CALIF,SCH ENGN,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. RP UDWADIA, FE, UNIV SO CALIF,DEPT MECH ENGN,430-K OLIN HALL,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR *PC ACC 3 MIL ISL, 1979, NEED CHANG LEG TMI BERNE E, 1964, GAMES PEOPLE PLAY BOLTON R, 1979, PEOPLE SKILLS COHEN JE, 1986, MATH PROC CAMBRIDGE, V99, P315 DUTTON JE, 1986, J MANAGE STUD, V23, P501 FREUDENBURG WR, 1988, SCIENCE, V242, P44 GLADWIN TN, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V22, P23 HARRIS TA, 1969, IM OK YOURE OK JAUCH LR, 1986, ACAD MANAGE REV, V4, P777 JUNG CG, 1968, ANAL PSYCHOL ITS THE JUNG CG, 1973, 4 ARCHETYPES MOTHER MACCOBY M, 1976, GAMESMAN MARCH JG, 1958, ORGANIZATIONS MILETI DS, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V22, P13 MISRA BK, 1987, NEW MANAGEMENT, V5, P31 MITROFF I, 1987, ACAD MANAGEMENT EXEC, V1, P283 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PHELPS NL, 1986, J BUS STRAT, V6, P5 REILLY AH, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V22, P79 SETHI SP, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V20, P101 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 SRIVASTAVA P, 1987, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI STRAW B, 1981, ADM SCI Q, V26, P501 STUBBARD CI, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V22, P88 UDWADIA FE, 1989, INT J COMPUTATIONAL, V129, P113 UDWADIA FE, 1989, PHYS REV A, V40, P4032 WHITEHEAD AN, 1910, PRINCIPIA MATHEMATIC WHORF BL, 1956, LANGUAGE THOUGHT REA NR 28 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1991 VL 40 IS 1 BP 33 EP 52 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GC308 UT ISI:A1991GC30800002 ER PT J AU VOLKEMA, RJ MANZANO, JL GAGLIONE, J TI DEVELOPING A COST-BENEFIT-ANALYSIS PROCESS FOR SMALL-TO-MODERATE EXPENDITURE DECISIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP VOLKEMA, RJ, AMERICAN UNIV,KOGOD COLL BUSINESS ADM,4400 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. CR *US DEP EN, 1988, AN BEN COSTS ABCS GU BENTKOVER JD, 1985, BENEFITS ASSESSMENT CAMPEN JT, 1986, BENEFIT COST POLITIC DASGUPTA AK, 1978, COST BENEFIT THEORY FUCHS EP, 1987, RES PUBLIC POLICY AN, V4 GRAMLICH EM, 1981, BENEFIT COST ANAL GO GUSTAFSON DH, 1973, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V9, P280 HOGARTH RM, 1987, JUDGMENT CHOICE JANIS IL, 1977, DECISION MAKING MIKESELL RF, 1977, RATE DISCOUNT EVALUA MISHAN EJ, 1982, COST BENEFIT ANAL PEARCE DW, 1981, SOCIAL APPRAISAL PRO SUGDEN R, 1978, PRINCIPLES PRACTICAL VOLKEMA RJ, 1988, BEHAV SCI, V33, P292 NR 14 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1991 VL 40 IS 1 BP 53 EP 71 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GC308 UT ISI:A1991GC30800003 ER PT J AU STOKKE, PR BOYCE, TA RALSTON, WK WILSON, IH TI VISIONING (AND PREPARING FOR) THE FUTURE - THE INTRODUCTION OF SCENARIOS-BASED PLANNING INTO STATOIL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP STOKKE, PR, SRI INT,333 RAVENSWOOD AVE,MENLO PK,CA 94025. CR BYLINSKY G, 1988, FORTUNE 0718, V118, P92 STOKKE PR, 1990, LONG RANGE PLANN, V23, P17 NR 2 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1991 VL 40 IS 1 BP 73 EP 86 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA GC308 UT ISI:A1991GC30800004 ER PT J AU DEGREENE, KB TI LARGE TECHNOLOGY-BASED SYSTEMS AND THE NEED FOR PARADIGM SHIFT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID CHERNOBYL C1 UNIV SO CALIF,SYST MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR AHEARNE JF, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P673 CHAPANIS A, 1988, HUM FACTORS, V30, P253 CIPRA BA, 1988, SCIENCE, V241, P1162 DEGREEN KB, 1980, ERGONOMICS, V23, P3 DEGREENE KB, 1970, SYSTEMS PSYCHOL DEGREENE KB, 1974, ERGONOMICS, V17, P437 DEGREENE KB, 1977, 21ST P HUM FACT SOC, P457 DEGREENE KB, 1982, ADAPTIVE ORG ANTICIP DEGREENE KB, 1986, HUMAN FACTORS ORG DE, V2, P479 DEGREENE KB, 1987, SYST RES, V4, P251 DEGREENE KB, 1989, SYST RES, V6, P277 DEGREENE KB, 1990, SYST RES, V7, P77 DEMONTMOLLIN M, 1985, ODAM B, V4, P4 DENNING PJ, 1989, AM SCI, V77, P333 DREYFUS HL, 1986, MIND MACHINE POWER H ELMERDEWITT P, 1989, TIME, V1434, P79 HILLMAN DJ, 1985, HUM FACTORS, V27, P31 JOHNSON SL, 1989, HUMAN FACTORS SOC B, V32, P6 KOLATA G, 1986, SCIENCE, V231, P1068 KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LINSTONE HA, 1985, INTERFACES, V15, P77 MADNI AM, 1988, HUM FACTORS, V30, P395 MEISTER D, 1988, HUMAN FACTORS SOC B, V31, P1 PERROW C, 1983, ADMIN SCI QUART, V28, P521 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV RASMUSSEN J, 1988, HUMAN FACTORS SOC B, V31, P1 ROUSE WB, 1987, HUMAN FACTORS SOC B, V30, P1 ROUSE WB, 1988, HUM FACTORS, V30, P431 SEARLE JR, 1990, SCI AM, V262, P26 SIMON CW, 1987, HUMAN FACTORS SOC B, V30, P1 SMITH LL, 1987, HUMAN FACTORS SOC B, V30, P6 TOLCOTT MA, 1989, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V19, P606 WILSON R, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P1636 WOODS DD, 1988, HUM FACTORS, V30, P415 NR 34 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1991 VL 39 IS 4 BP 349 EP 362 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FT767 UT ISI:A1991FT76700002 ER PT J AU BONANZINGA, P LEPORELLI, C NICOLO, E TI THE DIFFUSION OF A NEW TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICE - NETWORK CONSTRAINTS AND SERVICE QUALITY IN A DYNAMIC INTERPRETIVE MODEL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INTERDEPENDENT DEMAND C1 FDN UGO BORDONI,DIV STRATEG TLC ASPECTS,TLC SCENARIOS GRP,I-00142 ROME,ITALY. UNIV ROME LA SAPIENZA,SCH ENGN,DEPT COMP & SYST SCI,I-00185 ROME,ITALY. RP BONANZINGA, P, FDN UGO BORDONI,DIV STRATEG TLC ASPECTS,TLC TRENDS GRP,VIA B CASTIGLIONE 59,I-00142 ROME,ITALY. CR ALLEN D, 1988, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P, V12, P257 DHEBAR A, 1986, OPER RES, V34, P384 DODSON JA, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1568 HOFSTETTER H, 1985, P ITC, V11 KALISH S, 1979, MITEL79054WP MIT EN KLEINROCK L, 1975, QUEUEING SYSTEMS, V1 KLEINROCK L, 1975, QUEUEING SYSTEMS, V2 MARTIN J, 1972, SYSTEM ANAL DATA TRA ROHLFS J, 1974, BELL J ECON, V5, P16 STONEMAN P, 1984, RICERCHE EC, V40, P585 SYSKI R, 1960, INTRO CONGESTION THE URBAN GL, 1980, DESIGN MARKETING NEW NR 12 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1991 VL 39 IS 4 BP 363 EP 376 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FT767 UT ISI:A1991FT76700003 ER PT J AU BOMMER, MRW JANARO, RE LUPER, DC TI A MANUFACTURING STRATEGY MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID APPROPRIATE-TECHNOLOGY; PERFORMANCE C1 CLARKSON UNIV,SCH MANAGEMENT,SUMMER GRAD MFG SYST PROGRAM,POTSDAM,NY 13699. DUPONT CO,NEWARK,DE. CR 1987, TECHNOL FORECASTING, V32, P19 *UN DEP EC SOC AFF, 1974, APPR TECHN RES IND D ALLEN B, 1982, MANUFACTURING STRATE ANDERSON JC, 1989, J OPERATIONS MANAGEM, V8, P133 BARANSON J, 1970, AM ECON REV, V60, P435 BEHRMAN JN, 1976, TRANSFER MANUFACTURI BEHRMAN JN, 1980, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V15, P55 BHATT VV, 1980, APPROPRIATE TECHNOLO BUFFA ES, 1984, M COMPETITIVE CHALLE CAVUSGIL ST, 1985, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER CHARNOCK A, 1985, NEW SCI, V106, P10 CLEVELAND G, 1989, DECISION SCI, V20, P655 CROSS M, 1985, NEW SCI, V108, P23 DAVIDSON W, 1985, J INT BUS STUD, V6, P5 EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P25 FIEDLER FE, 1967, THEORY LEADERSHIP EF FISCHER W, 1989, BUSINESS CONT WORLD, V1, P99 FRANK I, 1980, FOREIGN ENTERPRISE D FRIED J, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL HAYES R, 1979, HARVARD BUS REV, V57, P127 HAYES RH, 1984, RESTORING OUR COMPET HILL TJ, 1989, MANUFACTURING STRATE KAMRAN V, 1983, MANUFACTURING STRATE KEDIA BL, 1988, ACAD MANAGE REV, V13, P559 LINSTONE HA, 1989, JUN IIASA INT C DIFF PRAHALAD CK, 1987, MULTINATIONAL MISSIO RANIS G, 1980, APPROPRIATE TECHNOLO REISE R, 1983, BUS AM, V6, P12 RICHARDSON PR, 1985, INTERFACES, V15, P15 ROBINSON R, 1988, INT TRANSFER TECHNOL ROMANO JD, 1983, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT SAMLI AC, 1985, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER SKINNER W, 1969, HARVARD BUSINESS MAY, P136 SKINNER W, 1978, MANUFACTURING BUSINE SKINNER W, 1985, MANUFACTURING FORMID STEINER G, 1982, MANAGEMENT POLICY ST SWAMIDASS PM, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P509 VANDIERDONCK R, 1980, J OPERATIONS MANAGEM, V1, P37 WELLS LT, 1984, TECHNOLOGY CROSSING WHEELWRIGHT SC, 1981, HARVARD BUS REV, V59, P67 YEOMAN W, 1984, TECHNOLOGY CROSSING NR 41 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1991 VL 39 IS 4 BP 377 EP 390 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FT767 UT ISI:A1991FT76700004 ER PT J AU CHIANG, JT TI GOVERNMENT FUNDING STRATEGY IN TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. RP CHIANG, JT, MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,50 MEM DR,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. CR *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1983, INT COMP ELECTR ANCHORDOGUY M, 1988, COMPUTERS INC JAPANS BLOOM JL, 1984, JAPANS MITI POLICY I KECK O, 1988, RES POLICY, V17, P187 LEVY JD, 1989, MIT8902 JAP SCI TECH NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON RR, 1984, HIGH TECHNOLOGY POLI SIMON HA, 1957, ADM BEHAVIOR WILLIAMSON OE, 1975, MARKETS HIERARCHIES WOLF C, 1979, J LAW ECON, V22, P107 NR 10 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1991 VL 39 IS 4 BP 391 EP 395 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FT767 UT ISI:A1991FT76700005 ER PT J AU MARAZITA, CF TI TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER IN THE UNITED-STATES - INDUSTRIAL-RESEARCH AT ENGINEERING RESEARCH CENTERS VERSUS THE TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS OF UNITED-STATES INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID R-AND-D; UNIVERSITY; POLICY RP MARAZITA, CF, PROTECH ASSOCIATES,POB 60007,SANTA BARBARA,CA 93160. CR 1980, OMB31450058 NAT RES 1982, BUSINESS WEEK 1220 1983, GUIDELINES ENG RES C 1984, HIST PROFILES 1988, 13TH P ANN M INT S T 1988, T SQUARED, V13, P1 1989, T SQUARED, V13, P1 *ENG RES CTR LEAD, 1987, CETSCROSS6 REP *NAT SCI FDN, 1982, 14TH ANN REP NAT SCI *NAT SCI FDN, 1982, U IND COOP RES CTR P *NAT SCI FDN, 1984, COOP SCI NAT STUD U *NEW ENG RES CTR, 1984, ISBN030903598 NAT SC ABELSON P, 1982, SCIENCE, V217, P4656 ABELSON P, 1986, SCIENCE, V231, P4736 ALDER HL, 1982, INTRO PROBABILITY ST AZAROFF L, 1982, RES MANAGE, V25, P31 BACHRACH R, 1983 NAT SCI F NAT C BAILEY R, 1985, J TECHNOLOGY TRANSFE, V9, P9 BAKER J, 1984, US NEWS WORLD R 0116 BARANSON J, 1983, ROBOTS MANUFACTURING BATTENBURG J, 1981, J SOC RES ADM, V12 BRANDT R, 1986, BUSINESS WEEK 0303 CHAKRABARTI A, 1983, MAY WPI NSF C CLAUSER H, 1981, RES MANAGEMENT JAN CRAWFORD M, 1985, SCIENCE, V228, P1182 CYERT RM, 1987, RES MANAGE, V28, P27 DECLERCQ GV, 1979, INT J I MANAGEMENT, V3, P237 DEITRICH J, 1981, RES MANAGE, V24, P23 EVELAND J, 1982, OCT ANN M ORSA TIMS EZEKOYE AN, 1984, OCT P INT C TECHN TE FENTON B, 1986, RADIO-ELECTRON, V57, P4 FOWLER DR, 1984, RES MANAGE, V27, P35 GALLAGHER RT, 1985, ELECTRONICS WEE 0101 GIAMATTI AB, 1982, SCIENCE, V218, P1278 GOLDSTONE NJ, 1986, TECHNOL REV, V89, P22 HAUGEN JL, 1983, ELECTRONICS, V56, P14 HAYDEN G, 1986, AUTOMATION NEWS 1208 HIRONO R, 1986, MANAGEMENT JAPAN SPR HISE RT, 1980, RES MANAGE, V23, P25 HOLDEN C, 1985, SCIENCE, V227, P152 HYDE A, 1985, ELECTRONIC BUSI 0601 KEYWORTH GA, 1983, SCIENCE, V220, P1122 KIEFER D, 1980, CHEM ENG NEWS 1208 KOONTZ J, 1986, IND WEEK 0804 LIEN A, 1973, APR NAT C AV NEW TEC MCCARTNEY L, 1983, DATAMATION, V29, P116 MODIC S, 1986, IND WEEK 0217 MOGEE ME, 1979, AUG RELATIONSHIP FED MOSS TH, 1983, VITAL SPEECHES, V49, P327 OROURKE JT, 1984, IND WEEK 1015 PALFRAMAN D, 1987, MANUFACTURING EN JAN PODOLSKY DM, 1986, ROBOTICS WORLD DEC PRAGER DJ, 1980, SCIENCE, V207, P379 RAY M, 1988, DAILY NEXUS 0622 RUBENSTEIN AH, 1980, NOV TMS ORSA M COL S RUBENSTEIN AH, 1983, MAY NW NAT SCI F C I SADAMOTO K, 1981, TOKYO SURVEY JAPAN SCHMITT RW, 1984, SCIENCE, V224, P1206 SCHREIBER RR, 1984, ROBOTICS TODAY, V6, P66 SCHRIESHEIM A, 1984, DESIGN NEWS 0917 SHAIKEN H, 1985, TECHNOL REV, V88, P16 SNYDER DR, 1985, J SMALL BUSINESS MAN, V23, P37 SODERHOLM L, 1986, DESIGN NEWS 0818 STEVENSON D, 1985, MANAGEMENT TODAY OCT TOEPPERWEIN LL, 1983, ROBOTICS APPLICATION WALLER L, 1984, ELECTRONICS, V57, P101 WALSH J, 1985, SCIENCE, V227, P150 WILSON D, 1986, AUTOMATION NEWS 1208 NR 68 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1991 VL 39 IS 4 BP 397 EP 410 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FT767 UT ISI:A1991FT76700006 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI IMMIGRATION - THEN, NOW, AND IN THE FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, JF COATES INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1991 VL 39 IS 4 BP 411 EP 415 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FT767 UT ISI:A1991FT76700007 ER PT J AU ROWE, G WRIGHT, G BOLGER, F TI DELPHI - A REEVALUATION OF RESEARCH AND THEORY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID GROUP JUDGMENT; CONFIDENCE; ACCURACY RP ROWE, G, BRISTOL BUSINESS SCH,COLDHARBOUR LANE,BRISTOL BS16 1QY,ENGLAND. CR ASHTON RH, 1986, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V38, P405 BENDER AD, 1969, FUTURES, V1, P289 BEST RJ, 1974, J MARKETING RES, V11, P448 BOJE DM, 1982, MANAGE SCI, V28, P1187 BROCKHOFF K, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI BROWN B, 1964, P2986 RAND CORP COATES JF, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P193 DALKEY N, 1963, MANAGE SCI, V9, P458 DALKEY NC, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V1, P283 DALKEY NC, 1971, R678ARPA RAND CORP DALKEY NC, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI DEUTSCH M, 1955, J ABNORMAL SOCIAL PS, V51, P629 EINHORN HJ, 1977, PSYCHOL BULL, V84, P158 FERRELL WR, 1985, BEHAVIORAL DECISION FISCHER GW, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V28, P96 FLORES BE, 1989, J FORECASTING, V8, P331 GOUGH R, 1975, UTILITY PROBABILITY GUSTAFSON DH, 1973, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V9, P280 HACKMAN JR, 1975, ADV EXPT SOCIAL PSYC, V8, P45 HAMPLE DJ, 1975, INT COMMUNICATION AS HASTIE R, 1986, DECISION RES, V2 HELMER O, 1964, P2973 RAND CORP HILL GW, 1982, PSYCHOL BULL, V91, P517 HILL KQ, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P179 HOFFMAN LR, 1965, ADV EXPT SOCIAL PSYC, V2 HOGARTH RM, 1978, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V21, P40 ISENBERG DJ, 1986, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V50, P1141 JANIS IL, 1972, VICTIMS GROUPTHINK JOLSON MA, 1971, J MARKETING RES, V8, P443 LARRECHE JC, 1983, J MARKETING RES, V20, P110 LICHTENSTEIN S, 1982, JUDGMENT UNCERTAINTY LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LINSTONE HA, 1978, HDB FUTURES RES LOCK A, 1987, JUDGMENTAL FORECASTI LORGE I, 1958, PSYCHOL BULL, V55, P337 MARTINO J, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MYERS DG, 1978, J EXPT SOCIAL PSYCHO, V14, P554 NISBETT RE, 1980, HUMAN INFERENCE STRA NORTHCROFT MA, 1987, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V39, P84 PARENTE FJ, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P173 PARENTE FJ, 1987, JUDGMENTAL FORECASTI RIGGS WE, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P89 ROWSE GL, 1974, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PERF, V12, P274 SACKMAN H, 1974, DELPHI CRITIQUE SALANCIK JR, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P65 SCHEELE DS, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P215 SEAVER DA, 1979, THESIS U SO CALIFORN SNIEZEK JA, 1989, INT J FORECASTING, V5, P171 SNIEZEK JA, 1989, ORGAN BEHAV HUM, V43, P1 STEINER ID, 1972, GROUP PROCESS PRODUC TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 UECKER WC, 1982, J ACCOUNTING RES, V20, P388 WINKLER RL, 1971, J AM STAT ASSOC, V66, P675 NR 53 TC 53 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1991 VL 39 IS 3 BP 235 EP 251 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FP523 UT ISI:A1991FP52300001 ER PT J AU WEBLER, T LEVINE, D RAKEL, H RENN, O TI A NOVEL-APPROACH TO REDUCING UNCERTAINTY - THE GROUP DELPHI SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,CTR ENVIRONM TECHNOL & DEV,ETS PROGRAM,950 MAIN ST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. CR BENARIE M, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P149 CYPHERT F, 1970, J TEACH EDUC, V21, P417 DALKEY N, 1963, MANAGE SCI, V9, P458 HILL KQ, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P179 JILLSON IA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LINSTONE H, 1985, HDB FUTURES RES LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MARTINO JP, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA RENN O, 1984, ENERGIE BRENNPUNKT RENN O, 1986, NUCL ENG DES, V93, P167 SIMMONS W, 1979, FUTURIST, V13, P91 SLOVIC P, 1985, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN SVIDEN O, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P159 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE 0927, P47 NR 15 TC 26 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1991 VL 39 IS 3 BP 253 EP 263 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FP523 UT ISI:A1991FP52300002 ER PT J AU CABE, R TI EQUILIBRIUM DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE THROUGH MULTIPLE PROCESSES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID AGRICULTURAL INNOVATIONS; ADOPTION; INFORMATION; EXPECTATIONS; IRRIGATION RP CABE, R, NEW MEXICO STATE UNIV,COLL BUSINESS ADM & ECON,DEPT ECON,BOX 30001,DEPT 3CQ,LAS CRUCES,NM 88003. CR ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 BALCER Y, 1984, J ECON THEORY, V34, P292 BROWN LA, 1968, DIFFUSION PROCESS LO BROWN LA, 1981, INNOVATION DIFFUSION CASWELL MF, 1986, AM J AGR ECON, V68, P798 DAVID PA, 1969, 71 STANF U RES CTR E DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN DAVIS SW, 1979, EUROPEAN EC REV, V12, P299 ENOS JL, 1958, J IND ECON, V6, P180 FALCON WP, 1977, AM J AGR ECON, V59, P698 FEDER G, 1981, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V30, P59 FEDER G, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P145 FEDER G, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P94 FEDER G, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P312 FEDER G, 1985, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V33, P255 FISHELSON G, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V35, P375 GOLD B, 1970, J IND ECON, V18, P218 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 GRILICHES Z, 1980, ECONOMETRICA, V48, P1463 HUFFMAN WE, 1974, AM J AGR ECON, V56, P85 IRELAND N, 1986, OXFORD ECON PAP, V38, P283 JOHNSON SR, 1977, QUANTITATIVE METHODS KISLEV Y, 1973, AM J AGR ECON, V55, P28 LEE BS, 1988, SOLVING ESTIMATING T LERMAN SR, 1981, STRUCTURAL ANAL DISC LINDNER RK, 1979, ECON LETT, V2, P187 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MCFADDEN D, 1987, METHOD SIMULATED MOM METCALFE JS, 1981, FUTURES OCT, P347 METCALFE JS, 1986, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIO NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY OSTER S, 1982, BELL J ECON, V13, P45 PAKES A, 1986, ASYMPTOTICS SIMULATI PAKES A, 1986, ECONOMETRICA, V54, P755 RAHM MR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P405 RAUSSER GC, 1975, SIMULATION GAMES, V6, P115 RAY GF, 1984, DIFFUSION MATURE TEC ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL ROSENBERG N, 1980, FUTURES OCT ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC SALTER WEG, 1966, PRODUCTIVITY TECHNIC SHOVEN JB, 1984, J ECON LIT, V22, P1007 STIGLITZ JE, 1986, NEW DEV ANAL MARKET STONEMAN P, 1981, ECON J, V91, P375 STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA STONEMAN P, 1983, ECON J, V93, P65 STONEMAN P, 1987, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA STONEMAN PL, 1986, ECON J, V96, P142 STONEMAN PL, 1987, EC POLICY TECHNOLOGI THIRTLE CG, 1987, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G WOZNIAK GD, 1986, J HUM RESOUR, V22, P101 NR 52 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1991 VL 39 IS 3 BP 265 EP 290 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FP523 UT ISI:A1991FP52300003 ER PT J AU MAHAJAN, V MULLER, E TI PRICING AND DIFFUSION OF PRIMARY AND CONTINGENT PRODUCTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID MODELS C1 UNIV TEXAS,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. TEL AVIV UNIV,RECANATI GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,IL-69978 TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BASS FM, 1982, MARKET SCI, V1, P371 BAYUS BL, 1987, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V4, P243 DODSON JA, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1568 DOLAN RJ, 1981, J MARKETING, V45, P52 HORSKY D, 1990, IN PRESS MARKETING S JAIN D, 1990, J BUS ECON STATIST, V2, P163 JEULAND AP, 1981, TIMS STUDIES MANAGEM, V18, P1 KALISH S, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P135 KALISH S, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION KAMIEN MI, 1981, DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION KOTLER P, 1988, MARKETING MANAGEMENT MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MAHAJAN V, 1990, J MARKETING, V59, P1 MCGUIRE TW, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P161 NASCIMENTO F, 1988, MANAGE SCI, V34, P921 PETERSON RA, 1978, RES MARKETING, P201 ROBINSON B, 1975, MANAGE SCI, V21, P1113 NR 18 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1991 VL 39 IS 3 BP 291 EP 307 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FP523 UT ISI:A1991FP52300004 ER PT J AU DINAR, A MAROM, D TI RATES AND PATTERNS OF COMPUTER ADOPTION AND USE IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ISRAEL EXTENS SERV,DEPT PROD ECON,TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. RP DINAR, A, UNIV CALIF DAVIS,DEPT AGR ECON,DAVIS,CA 95616. CR *CTR MAN AGR, 1984, COHP FARM MAN TOOL *MIN AGR FISH FOOD, 1985, REP FARM EXP I GEN R AUDIRAC I, 1986, RURAL SOCIOL, V51, P60 CASWELL MF, 1987, AM J AGR ECON, V67, P224 CHANDLER W, 1970, AM J AGR ECON, V59, P71 CHOW CC, 1967, AM ECON REV, V57, P1117 DINAR A, 1988, 2ND INT C COMP AGR E DOMENCICH T, 1975, URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND FEDER G, 1985, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V33, P255 HARSH SB, 1978, AM J AGR ECON, V60, P908 HARSH SB, 1985, AUG NCCI S INT COMP MCGRANN JM, 1985, NOV ORG EC COOP DEV MCGRANN JM, 1987, YEAR 2000 COMPUTERIZ PHELAN J, 1985, 7TH EUR SEM EXT ED A PUTLER DS, 1988, AM J AGR ECON, V70, P790 RAHM MR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P405 ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION RUTTAN VW, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P307 THIRTLE CG, 1987, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G WELCH F, 1970, J POLITICAL EC, V78, P35 WHITE FC, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P47 NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1991 VL 39 IS 3 BP 309 EP 318 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FP523 UT ISI:A1991FP52300005 ER PT J AU LINSTONE, HA TI THE GLORY AND CURSE OF BEING .1. SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP LINSTONE, HA, PORTLAND STATE UNIV,SYST SCI,PORTLAND,OR 97207. CR BENNIS W, 1985, LEADERS CETRON M, 1989, AM RENAISSANCE OUR L COATES JF, 1990, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V38, P201 COWELL FR, 1948, CICERO ROMAN REPUBLI, P276 CRYSTAL GS, 1990, NY TIMES MAG S 0923, P48 IWATA R, 1985, LOOK JAPAN 1010, P10 KENNEDY P, 1987, RISE FALL GREAT POWE LINSTONE HA, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V36, P153 MODELSKI G, 1991, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V39, P23 TOFFLER A, 1990, POWERSHIFT VESETH M, 1990, MOUNTAINS DEBT NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1991 VL 39 IS 3 BP 319 EP 326 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FP523 UT ISI:A1991FP52300006 ER PT J AU AUSUBEL, JH TI RAT-RACE DYNAMICS AND CRAZY COMPANIES - THE DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGIES AND SOCIAL-BEHAVIOR SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP AUSUBEL, JH, ROCKEFELLER UNIV,SCI & PUBL POLICY,NR 403,1230 YORK AVE,NEW YORK,NY 10021. CR ARTHUR WB, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P85 CASTIGLIONE B, 1959, BOOK OF COURTIER ERGAS H, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN, P191 FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P38 MONTROLL EW, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P4633 OGBURN WF, 1933, RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS, P122 NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 11 EP 22 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100002 ER PT J AU MODELSKI, G PERRY, G TI DEMOCRATIZATION IN LONG PERSPECTIVE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 N SEATTLE COMMUNITY COLL,DEPT SCI & MATH,SEATTLE,WA. RP MODELSKI, G, UNIV WASHINGTON,DEPT POLIT SCI,SEATTLE,WA 98195. CR BRYCE J, 1921, MODERN DEMOCRACIES COLE T, 1987, THESIS U WASHINGTON CONTARINI G, 1599, COMMONWEALTH GOVT VE FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GASTIL R, 1989, FREEDOM WORLD POLITI GASTIL R, 1989, MAY PAC NW C INT SEC GURR TR, 1989, POLITY 2 CODEBOOK GURR TR, 1990, IN PRESS STUDIES COM HUNTLEY JR, 1980, UNITING DEMOCRACIES LANGER W, 1972, ENCY WORLD HIST MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MCEVEDY C, 1978, ATLAS WORLD POPULATI MODELSKI G, 1987, LONG CYCLES WORLD PO MODELSKI G, 1990, INT ORGAN, V44, P1 PERRY G, 1987, UNPUB TIME SERIES ST REDDAWAY WF, 1950, CAMBRIDGE HIST POLAN ROGERS EM, 1962, DIFFUSION INNOVATION TOCQUEVILLE AD, 1969, DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA WILSON W, 1918, STATE ELEMENTS HIST NR 19 TC 22 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 23 EP 34 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100003 ER PT J AU PEIRCE, WS TI INNOVATION AND DIFFUSION IN THE SINGLE EUROPE - INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIAL PROSPECTS FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP PEIRCE, WS, CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV,WEATHERHEAD SCH MANAGEMENT,CLEVELAND,OH 44106. CR 1985, OFFICIAL J C, V136, P1 *EUR COMM COMM, 1971, ANN REP COMP POL *EUR COMM COMM, 1986, DIR EUR COMM TRAD PR *EUR COMM COMM, 1987, 21ST GEN REP ACT EUR, P175 *EUR COMM COMM, 1988, RES COST NON EUR *US C, 1985, CBO STUD ARETZ E, 1988, SEMINAR PAPER U LIMB BACKHAUS J, 1987, PUBLIC CHOICE, V53, P3 CECCHINI P, 1988, EUROPEAN CHALLENGE 1 DAVIDSON S, 1983, I POLICIES EUROPEAN, P117 FLAMM K, 1987, TARGETING COMPUTER G FLAMM K, 1988, CREATING COMPUTER GO GOLD B, 1981, J ECON LIT, V19, P5 GOWLAND D, 1983, INT EC, P54 HAGEDOORN J, 1988, 15TH ANN C EUR ASS R KATZ B, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR, P162 LEVIN RC, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR, P9 MCCORMICK RE, 1981, POLITICIANS LEGISLAT MOWERY DC, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR, P101 MYTELKA LK, 1987, J COMMON MARK STUD, V26, P231 OLSON M, 1965, LOGIC COLLECTIVE ACT OLSON M, 1982, RISE DECLINE NATIONS PEIRCE WS, 1991, IN PRESS POLITICAL E PELKMANS J, 1987, J COMMON MARK STUD, V25, P249 QUIGLEY C, 1988, EUROPEAN LAW REV, V13, P242 ROSEGGER G, 1986, EC PRODUCTION INNOVA SHARP M, 1987, EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGIC SHARP M, 1987, OXFORD REV EC POLICY, V3, P52 TUMLIR J, 1983, REFLECTIONS TROUBLED, P29 VALLSPASOLA J, 1988, 15TH ANN C EUR ASS R VICKERY G, 1987, STI REV SEP, P41 NR 31 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 35 EP 44 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100004 ER PT J AU KAMANN, DJF NIJKAMP, P TI TECHNOGENESIS - ORIGINS AND DIFFUSION IN A TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION C1 FREE UNIV AMSTERDAM,DEPT ECON,1007 MC AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. RP KAMANN, DJF, STATE UNIV GRONINGEN,DEPT ECON,POB 800,9700 AV GRONINGEN,NETHERLANDS. CR AGLIETTA M, 1986, THEORY CAPITALIST RE ALDERMAN N, 1990, SPATIAL CONTEXT TECH ALDRICH HE, 1981, HDB ORG DESIGN, P385 AXELSSON B, 1987, IND TECHNOLOGICAL DE, P128 BLUESTONE B, 1982, IND AM CAPPELLIN R, 1990, SPATIAL CONTEXT TECH COOK KS, 1978, AM SOCIOL REV, V43, P721 CREVOISIER O, 1989, MILIEUX ORG IND SYST DAVELAAR EJ, 1987, GESELLSCHAFT WIRTSCH, P198 EWERS HJ, 1980, REG STUD, V14, P161 GALBRAITH JK, 1963, AM CAPITALISM GIAOUTZI M, 1988, INFORMATICS REGIONAL GODDARD J, 1973, OFFICE LOCATION REGI, P21 HAMFELT C, 1987, IND TECHNOLOGICAL DE, P210 JAY EJ, 1964, MAN, V64, P137 JOHANSON J, 1984, INT RES SEMINAR IND KAMANN DJ, 1990, SPATIAL CONTEXT TECH, P257 KAMANN DJF, 1985, ONDERNEMEN NEDERLAND, P171 KAMANN DJF, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, P131 KAMANN DJF, 1988, SPATIAL DIFFERENTIAT KAMANN DJF, 1991, IN PRESS EUROPEAN RE LAAGEHELLMAN J, 1987, IND TECHNOLOGICAL DE, P26 MALECKI EJ, 1988, ENV PLANNING, V6 MOWERY D, 1979, RES POLICY, V8, P102 NIJKMAP P, 1988, 198830 FREE U DEP EC OAKEY R, 1980, REG STUD, V14, P235 PERROUX F, 1955, EC APPLIQUE D, V8 PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG ROGERS EM, 1987, SILICON VALLEY FEVER SCOTT AJ, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V85 SIMON HA, 1962, P AM PHILOS SOC, V106, P467 STORPER M, 1990, IN PRESS POWER GEOGR TOWNROE P, 1988, UNPUB DEC C INN REG WHETTEN DA, 1987, HDB ORG BEHAV, P238 WILLIAMSON OE, 1979, J LAW ECON, V22, P233 WILLIAMSON OE, 1987, MARKETS HIERARCHIES NR 36 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 45 EP 66 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100005 ER PT J AU SILVERBERG, G TI ADOPTION AND DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY AS A COLLECTIVE EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID R-AND-D; SCHUMPETERIAN DYNAMICS; INNOVATION; DIVERSITY; MODEL RP SILVERBERG, G, STATE UNIV LIMBURG,MAASTRICHT ECON RES INST INNOVAT & TECHNOL,POB 616,6200 MD MAASTRICHT,NETHERLANDS. CR ALLEN RC, 1981, RES EC HIST, P35 ALLEN RC, 1983, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V4, P1 ARROW KJ, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN ARROW KJ, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P155 ARTHUR WB, 1988, EC EVOLVNG COMPLEX S AXELROD R, 1984, EVOLUTION COOPERATIO COHEN WM, 1989, ECON J, V99, P569 DAVID P, 1966, IND 2 SYSTEMS ESSAYS DAVID P, 1988, MAY INT SCHUMP C SIE DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 ENOS JL, 1962, PETROLEUM PROGR PROF ERGAS H, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN FLAMM K, 1987, TARGETING COMPUTER G FLAMM K, 1988, SEP OECD WORKSH INF FORAY D, 1990, IN PRESS RES POLICY FRIEDEL R, 1986, EDISONS ELECTRIC LIG GOLDBERG D, 1989, GENETIC ALGORITHMS S GRUBLER A, 1991, TECHNOL FOR, V39 HOLLAND JH, 1975, ADAPTATION NATURAL A HOLLAND JH, 1986, INDUCTION PROCESSES HUGHES TP, 1983, NETWORKS POWER ELECT IWAI K, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P159 IWAI K, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P321 JOVANOVIC B, 1989, AM ECON REV, V79, P690 KALDOR N, 1962, REV ECON STUD, V29, P174 KLEINE J, 1983, INVESTITIONSVERHALTE KWASNICKA H, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P223 KWASNICKI W, 1989, MARKET INNOVATION CO LEVIN RC, 1985, AM ECON REV, V75, P20 LUNDVALL BA, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC MALCOMSON JM, 1975, J ECON THEORY, V10, P24 MASSE P, 1962, OPTIMAL INVESTMENT D MCCLOSKEY DN, 1974, EC MATURITY ENTREPRE NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NOBLE DF, 1984, FORCES PRODUCTION OLMSTEAD A, 1975, J ECON HIST, V33, P327 ROSENBERG N, 1972, EXPLORATIONS EC HIST, V10 ROSENBERG N, 1976, ECON J, V86, P523 ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SAHAL D, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P61 SALTER WEG, 1960, PRODUCTIVITY TECHNIC SAXONHOUSE GR, 1974, J ECON HIST, V34, P149 SCHUMPETER J, 1912, THEORIE WIRTSCHAFTLI SILVERBERG G, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC SILVERBERG G, 1987, EC EVOLUTION STRUCTU SILVERBERG G, 1988, ECON J, V98, P1032 SILVERBERG G, 1989, NEWTON ARISTOTLE THE SILVERBERG G, 1991, TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIV SMITH V, 1961, INVESTMENT PRODUCTIO SOLOW R, 1959, MATH METHODS SOCIAL SPENCE AM, 1984, ECONOMETRICA, V52, P101 STONEMAN P, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUS TERBORGH G, 1949, DYNAMIC EQUIPMENT PO VONHIPPEL EA, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION WADDINGTON CH, 1976, EVOLUTION CONSCIOUSN WINTER SG, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P137 NR 57 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 67 EP 80 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100006 ER PT J AU ROSEGGER, G TI DIFFUSION THROUGH INTERFIRM COOPERATION - A CASE-STUDY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ROSEGGER, G, CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV,DEPT ECON,CLEVELAND,OH 44106. CR 1984, AUTOWEEK 0501, V4 1989, AUTOMOTIVE NE E 0424, V10 *US HOUS REPR, 1980, AUT SIT 1980 ALBERNATHY WJ, 1978, PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA ALTSHULER A, 1984, FUTURE AUTOMOBILE BERGE W, 1944, CARTELS CHALLENGE FR CUSUMANO M, 1985, JAPANESE AUTOMOBILE EATON RJ, 1987, INT J TECHNOL MANAGE, V2, P183 FUSFELD HI, 1986, TECHNICAL ENTERPRISE LANGENFELD J, 1986, UNPUB INNOVATION US MARUMO K, UNPUB JAPANISCHE IND NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY REICH RB, 1986, HARVARD BUS REV, V86, P78 RHYS G, 1988, ECONOMICS, V34, P158 ROSEGGER G, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P401 ROSEGGER G, 1986, MAY C INT MARK COOP ROSEGGER G, 1987, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V15, P93 ROSEGGER G, 1989, COOPERATIVE RES DEV SEKALY RR, 1981, TRANSNATIONALIZATION WOMACK JP, 1988, INT COLLABORATIVE VE NR 20 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 81 EP 101 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100007 ER PT J AU KELLEY, MR BROOKS, H TI EXTERNAL LEARNING OPPORTUNITIES AND THE DIFFUSION OF PROCESS INNOVATIONS TO SMALL FIRMS - THE CASE OF PROGRAMMABLE AUTOMATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID JOB DESIGN; TECHNOLOGY; ORGANIZATION; MODEL C1 HARVARD UNIV,JOHN F KENNEDY SCH GOVT,TECHNOL & PUBL POLICY PROGRAM,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP KELLEY, MR, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,SCH URBAN & PUBL AFFAIRS,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 103 EP 125 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100008 ER PT J AU TILTON, JE TI MATERIAL SUBSTITUTION - THE ROLE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP TILTON, JE, COLORADO SCH MINES,DEPT MINERAL ECON,GOLDEN,CO 80401. CR AM METAL MARKET 1986, MATERIALS COMPETITIO *CAN MAN I, 1986, 1985 CAN SHIPM REP *NAT SOFT DRINK AS, 1986, 1986 STAT PROF *US BUR LAB STAT, PROD PRIC IND COMM G *US BUR MIN, MIN COMM SUMM CANAVAN P, 1983, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA, P15 DEMLER FR, 1980, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA DEMLER FR, 1983, MATERIAL SUBSTITUTIO NAPPI C, 1986, MATER SOC, V10, P455 TILTON JE, 1983, MATERIAL SUBSTITUTIO NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 127 EP 144 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100009 ER PT J AU AYRES, RU EZEKOYE, I TI COMPETITION AND COMPLEMENTARITY IN DIFFUSION - THE CASE OF OCTANE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE C1 WESTINGHOUSE ELECT CORP,PITTSBURGH,PA 15222. RP AYRES, RU, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,DEPT ENGN & PUBL POLICY,SCHENLEY PK,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. CR ARTHUR WB, 1983, CEPR43 STANF U PAP ARTHUR WB, 1988, EC EVOLVING COMPLEX, P9 ARTHUR WB, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P590 AYRES RU, 1987, IND TECHNOLOGY LIFE CRUTCHFIELD JP, 1986, SCI AM, V255, P46 ENOS JL, 1962, PETROLEUM PROGR PROF FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 LAKHANI H, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P33 LINSTONE H, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION RAYMOND L, 1980, AUTOMOTIVE ENG OCT, P27 WILLIAMSON HF, 1959, AM PETROLEUM IND NR 13 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 145 EP 158 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100010 ER PT J AU GRUBLER, A TI DIFFUSION - LONG-TERM PATTERNS AND DISCONTINUITIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID FORECASTING TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTION; MODEL; INNOVATION RP GRUBLER, A, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM COMPATIBLE ENERGY STRATEGIES PROJECT,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR ARTHUR WB, 1983, 43 STANF U CTR EC PO AYRES RU, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSF BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BROOKS H, 1987, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P325 DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN DOSI G, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC, P78 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FORAY D, 1990, RES POLICY, V19, P535 FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC FREEMAN C, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC FREEMAN C, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P38 GODLUND S, 1952, LUND STUDIES GEOGR B, V6 GOLD B, 1981, J IND ECON, V24, P247 GOLDSTEIN JS, 1988, LONG CYCLES PROSPERI GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA, V25, P501 GRUBLER A, 1990, LECTURE NOTES EC MAT, V340, P117 GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC HAGERSTRAND T, 1952, LUND STUDIES GEOGR B, V4 HAGERSTRAND T, 1967, INNOVATION DIFFUSION HURTER AR, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V11, P197 JUTILA ST, 1986, JUN ADV SUMM I REG S KLEINKNECHT A, 1987, INNOVATION PATTERNS KONDRATIEFF ND, 1926, ARCH SOZIALWISSENSCH, V56, P573 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MANSFIELD E, 1968, EC TECHNOLOGICAL CHA MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARCHETTI C, 1979, DYNAMICS ENERGY SYST MENSCH G, 1975, TECHNOLOGISCHE PATT METCALFE JS, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC MONTROLL EW, 1978, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V75, P4633 NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, SOFTWARE PACKAGE LOG NAKICENOVIC N, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P309 NAKICENOVIC N, 1987, LONG WAVE DEBATE, P76 NAKICENOVIC N, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P175 NASBETH L, 1974, DIFFUSION NEW IND PR NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P357 POZNANSKI KZ, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P297 RAY GF, 1989, RES POLICY, V18, P1 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SILVERBERG G, 1988, ECON J, V98, P1032 SKIADAS CH, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P313 SOETE L, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P458 VANDUIJN JJ, 1983, LONG WAVE EC LIFE VASKO T, 1987, LONG WAVE DEBATE WARD WH, 1967, B I PHYSICA PHYSICS, V18, P169 NR 48 TC 11 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 159 EP 180 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100011 ER PT J AU NAKICENOVIC, N TI DIFFUSION OF PERVASIVE SYSTEMS - A CASE OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP NAKICENOVIC, N, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM COMPATIBLE ENERGY STRATEGIES PROJECT,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR BROOKS H, 1988, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P325 DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FREEMAN C, 1983, LONG WAVES WORLD EC GOLDSTEIN JS, 1988, LONG CYCLES PROSPERI GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC KONDRATIEFF ND, 1926, ARCH SOZIALWISSENSCH, V56, P573 MARCHETTI C, 1985, NEW SCI, V1454, P12 NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, SOFTWARE PACKAGE LOG NAKICENOVIC N, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P175 NAKICENOVIC N, 1988, DYNAMICS CHANGE LONG SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES, V1 SIMON H, 1988, JUN IIASA PERSP FUT SZALAI A, 1972, USE TIME VANDUIJN JJ, 1983, LONG WAVE EC LIFE VASKO T, 1987, IIASA INT M LONG TER ZAHAVI Y, 1979, DOTRSPADPB20793 REP NR 17 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 181 EP 200 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100012 ER PT J AU DIEDEREN, PJM KEMP, RPM MUYSKEN, J DEWIT, GR TI DIFFUSION OF PROCESS TECHNOLOGY IN DUTCH BANKING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID SCHUMPETERIAN DYNAMICS RP DIEDEREN, PJM, MAASTRICHT ECON RES INST INNOVAT & TECHNOL,POB 616,6200 MD MAASTRICHT,NETHERLANDS. CR *BANK INT SETTL, 1985, PAYM SYST 11 DEV COU *CENTR BUR STAT, 1971, ANN STAT YB *CPB, 1971, CENTR EC PLAN *NIBE, 1972 1987 BANK BOE J DAY RH, 1987, EC EVOLUTION STRUCTU, P46 DEWIT GR, 1987, TIJDSCHRIFT POLITIEK, V10, P27 DEWIT GR, 1988, EC STATISTISCHE BERI, V73, P124 DEWIT GR, 1990, NEW EXPLANATIONS EC DIEDEREN PJM, 1988, DIFFUSION TECHNOLO 2 FRANKE RH, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P143 FREEMAN C, 1985, INFORMATION TECHNOLO IWAI K, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P159 IWAI K, 1984, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V5, P321 KORNAI J, 1971, ANTIEQUILIBRIUM EC S NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY OSTERMAN P, 1986, IND LABOR RELAT REV, V39, P175 PEEKEL M, 1984, GIRALE BETALINGSVERK PETIT P, 1983, INFORMATION TECHNOLO REVELL JRS, 1983, BANKING ELECTRONIC F NR 19 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 201 EP 219 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100013 ER PT J AU HJELM, J TI THE CHAIN SAW IN SWEDISH FORESTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HJELM, J, UMEA UNIV,DEPT HIST,S-90187 UMEA,SWEDEN. CR ANDERSSON B, 1980, SKOGENS VARDEN SKOGS, P160 BERGREN C, 1981, ARK FOR STUDIER ARBE, P31 ELSTER J, 1978, LOGIC SOC CONTRADICT, P106 LEIJONHUVFUD AC, 1953, SVENSKA SKOGSVARDFOR, V51, P97 LIDBERG B, 1961, MOTORSAGNING LIDEN E, SKOGSMASKINFORARNAS STAAF A, 1983, UNPUB SKOGSTEKNISK H, V251 NR 7 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR-APR PY 1991 VL 39 IS 1-2 BP 221 EP 231 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA FM231 UT ISI:A1991FM23100014 ER PT J AU SOEDJATMOKO TI TOWARD A WORLD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY BASED ON GROWTH, SUSTAINABILITY, AND SOLIDARITY - POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE 1990S SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Some comments are made on a recent paper by Gordon and Greenspan [1]. Two interesting variants of the logistic difference equation in the context of innovation diffusion, the first with a superimposed periodic force term and the second with an additional lag of one generation, with their new features are discussed NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 313 EP 322 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600001 ER PT J AU BHARGAVA, SC SAHNI, V SRIVASTAVA, PK VARMA, VS TI SOME COMMENTS ON CHAOS AND FRACTALS - NEW TOOLS FOR TECHNOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL-FORECASTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV DELHI,DEPT PHYS & ASTROPHYS,DELHI 110007,INDIA. RP BHARGAVA, SC, UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DELHI 110007,INDIA. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 CHEN P, 1988, SYST DYNAM REV, V4, P81 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 LINSTONE HA, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAY RM, 1976, NATURE, V261, P459 VERHULST PF, 1845, NUOVO MEMOIRES ACADE, V18 VERHULST PF, 1847, NUOVO MEMOIRES ACADE, V20 NR 9 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 323 EP 331 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600002 ER PT J AU HERMAN, R ARDEKANI, SA AUSUBEL, JH TI DEMATERIALIZATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Multidimensional challenges to the science and technology of our energy economy and ecology continue to emerge. This paper focuses on near-term challenges facing the utility industry and its engineers in accommodating to the realities of environmental, resource, and institutional constraints. It explores technological opportunities to maximize the value of past investments in meeting societal demands as well as the likelihood of finding new systems and synergies that can contribute to a healthy industry in the changing business climate in the years ahead. C1 UNIV TEXAS,CIVIL ENGN,ARLINGTON,TX 76019. ROCKEFELLER UNIV,SCI & PUBL POLICY,NEW YORK,NY 10021. RP HERMAN, R, UNIV TEXAS,COLL ENGN,AUSTIN,TX 78712. CR *I SCRAP REC IND, 1988, FACTS 1987 YB *INT EN AG, 1987, EN CONS IEA COUNTR *MOT VEH MAN ASS, 1982, INF US VAR MAT AUT I *NAT AC ENG, 1985, COMP STAT US STEEL I *NAT RES COUNC, 1986, PRES HIST REC *US BUR CENS, 1975, STAT ABSTR US *US EPA, 1988, UNF BUS COMP ASS ENV AUSUBEL JH, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV AYRES RU, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV BOGGESS WR, 1977, NSFRA770214 REP CHAPMAN ER, 1979, LEAD PAINT ABATEMENT COINTREAU SJ, 1982, ENV MANAGEMENT URBAN COLOMBO U, 1988, GLOBALIZATION TECHNO, P23 EVANS L, 1985, 10TH P INT C EXPT SA, P548 FRIEDLANDER SK, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV GLAS JP, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV HAGERTY DJ, 1973, ENV ENG SERIES HIBBARD WR, 1986, MATER SOC, V10, P251 LEE TH, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV MARLAND G, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P312 MILLER E, 1988, WARDS AUTO WORLD PAUL B, 1989, WALL STREET J 1025, B4 STARK HA, 1988, WARDS AUTOMOTIVE YB TCHOBANOGLOUS G, 1977, SOLID WASTES ENG PRI TENNER E, 1988, FACTS 1987 YB WARHIT E, 1980, EPA56012800016 REP WESTERMAN RR, 1978, EPA600578009 REP WILLIAMS RH, 1987, ANNU REV ENERGY, V12, P99 NR 28 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 333 EP 347 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600003 ER PT J AU BALZHISER, RE TI MEETING THE NEAR-TERM CHALLENGE FOR POWER-PLANTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article ID COAL TECHNOLOGY AB Intelligent Vehicle-Highway Systems (IVHS) offer to improve the efficiency and safety of driving by means of an amalgamation of information technology with vehicles and highways. The recent acceleration of IVHS development in the United States has resulted from a number of converging forces and has given rise to a number of policy issues, which have both public and private, domestic and international implications. The resolution of these issues will probably have significant impacts on both the automotive industry and the infrastructure that supports automotive transportation around the world. RP BALZHISER, RE, ELECT POWER RES INST,PALO ALTO,CA 94303. CR 1987, 6TH P ANN C COAL GAS *NAT RES COUNC, 1986, EL EC GROWTH AUSUBEL JH, 1989, REGULARITIES TECHNOL BALZHEISER RE, 1987, SCI AM, V257, P100 FRIEDLANDER SK, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV GRAY PE, 1989, PARADOX TECHNOLOGICA LEE TH, ADV FOSSIL FUEL SYST SCHMIDT P, 1986, ELECTRICITY USE PRUD, P199 SIMBECK DR, 1983, AP3109 EL POW RES I SPENCER DF, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P609 WEINBERG AM, 1989, ENERGY PRODUCTION CO YEAGER KE, 1987, ANNU REV ENERGY, V12, P471 NR 12 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 349 EP 362 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600004 ER PT J AU CHEN, K ERVIN, RD TI INTELLIGENT VEHICLE-HIGHWAY SYSTEMS - UNITED-STATES ACTIVITIES AND POLICY ISSUES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MICHIGAN,TRANSPORTAT RES INST,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. RP CHEN, K, UNIV MICHIGAN,COLL ENGN,DEPT ELECT ENGN & COMP SCI,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. CR 1989, FEB P WORKSH INT VEH *AM ASS STAT HIGHW, 1988, BOTT LIN *US C, 1989, ADV VEH HIGHW SYST U *US DEP TRANSP, 1989, DISC PAP INT VEH HIG BLASHKE JD, 1989, 68TH ANN M TRANSP RE BRIDGES GS, 1989, SAE SP791 SPEC PUBL CATLING I, 1989, 1ST VEH NAV INF SYST CHEN K, 1989, 1ST VEH NAV INF SYST DAVIES P, 1989, 20TH P INT S AUT TEC ERVIN RD, 1989, COMMENTS OPEN FORUM ERVIN RD, 1989, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V5, P92 FABER K, 1989, 46284 US DEP TRANS D FLORIAN M, 1984, TRANSPORTATION PLANN GARDELS K, 1960, GMR276 GEN MOT RES L KANAFANI A, 1989, 1ST VEH NAV INF SYST KOSH M, 1988, OVERVIEW MOTOR VEHIC LINDLEY JA, 1987, ITE J, V57, P57 PANIK F, 1988, APR INT S EUREKA PRO PITZ JP, 1989, 1ST VEH NAV INF S C SAXTON L, 1989, P WORKSH INT VEH HIG SMITH RB, 1989, 20TH INT S AUT TECHN SPARMANN JM, 1989, 1ST VEH NAV INF SYST STEPHENS BW, 1968, 265 HIGHW RES REC, P265 SUMMER R, 1989, 1ST VEH NAV INF SYST UNDERWOOD SE, 1989, FUTURE INTELLIGENT V VOSTREZ J, 1989, SAE SP791 SPEC PUBL NR 26 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 363 EP 374 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600005 ER PT J AU BEZDEK, RH JONES, JD TI ECONOMIC-GROWTH, TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE, AND EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS FOR SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP BEZDEK, RH, MANAGEMENT INFORMAT SERV INC,116 4TH ST SE,WASHINGTON,DC 20003. CR *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1986, SCI TECHN IND 2 R D *US BUR CENS, 1985, CURR POP SURV *US BUR LAB STAT, 1979, PROD IND SEL IND *US BUR LAB STAT, 1986, BULL, V2253 ALLEN RGD, 1975, INDEX NUMBERS THEORY, P18 BAILY ML, 1986, SCIENCE, V24, P43 BAIRD RN, 1976, RES TECHNOLOGICAL CH BEZDEK RH, 1976, REV INCOME WEALT JUN, P167 BEZDEK RH, 1986, EC PLANNING, V20, P52 BEZDEK RH, 1986, INT J MANAGEMENT SCI, V15, P1 BEZDEK RH, 1987, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V4, P28 CAREY M, 1984, OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK, V28 ERDILEK A, 1976, RES TECHNOLOGICAL CH FREEMAN RB, 1980, J HUMAN RESOURCE SPR, P176 HOLOMAN JH, 1977, PRODUCTIVITY SERVICI JUSSAWALLA M, 1984, COMMUNICATION INFORM KAYS W, 1984, INVOLVEMENT LEARNING MOSS ML, 1981, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P NADIRI IM, 1980, PRODUCTIVITY MEASURE THOMPSON J, 1981, MON LABOR REV, V104, P40 NR 20 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 375 EP 391 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600006 ER PT J AU WAEMA, TM WALSHAM, G TI INFORMATION-SYSTEMS STRATEGY FORMATION IN A DEVELOPING-COUNTRY BANK SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP WAEMA, TM, UNIV CAMBRIDGE,DEPT ENGN,MANAGEMENT STUDIES GRP,MILL LANE,CAMBRIDGE CB2 1RX,ENGLAND. CR BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 CHOI HS, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P225 HIRSCHHEIM RA, 1986, COMPUT SURV, V18, P165 KLING R, 1987, CRITICAL ISSUES INFO, P307 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1989, SYSTEMS PRACTICE, V2, P307 PETTIGREW AM, 1985, AWAKENING GIANT CONT STOVER WJ, 1984, INFORMATION TECHNOLO WAEMA TM, 1990, INFORM MANAGE, V18, P29 WAEMA TM, 1990, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE U WALSHAM G, 1988, INFORMATION TECHNOLO, V3, P189 NR 11 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 393 EP 407 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600007 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI FROM MY PERSPECTIVE - THE INEVITABLE QUESTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, JF COATES INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1990 VL 38 IS 4 BP 409 EP 413 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EP706 UT ISI:A1990EP70600008 ER PT J AU WEINBERG, AM TI ENERGY IN RETROSPECT - IS THE PAST PROLOGUE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP WEINBERG, AM, OAK RIDGE ASSOCIATED UNIV,INST ENERGY ANAL,POB 117,OAK RIDGE,TN 37830. CR *EN POL PROJ, 1974, TIM CHOOS AM EN FUT *FED EN ADM, 1974, PROJ IND SUMM *GAS RES I, 1987, GAS RES I BAS PROJ *INT I APPL SYST A, 1981, EN FIN WORLD GLOB SY *JAPAN MIN INT TRA, 21ST CENT EN VIS ENT *US AT EN COMM, 1962, CIV NUCL POW *US PC MAT POL COM, 1952, RES FREED REP PRES BROOKS H, 1979, ANN REV ENERGY, V4, P1 CAMBEL A, 1964, ENERGY RD NATIONAL P FRISCH JR, 1983, WORLD ENERGY C ENERG GOLDEMBERG J, 1985, ANNU REV ENERGY, V10, P613 HUBBERT MK, 1969, RESOURCES MAN, P157 LOVINS A, 1977, FUTURE STRATEGIES EN PUTNAM P, 1953, ENERGY FUTURE RAY DL, 1973, NATIONS ENERGY FUTUR SCHURR SH, 1984, ANN REV ENERGY, V9, P410 WEINBERG AM, 1985, ENERG POLICY, V13, P51 NR 17 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1990 VL 38 IS 3 BP 211 EP 221 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EG964 UT ISI:A1990EG96400001 ER PT J AU ASTAKHOV, A GRUBLER, A MOOKHIN, A TI TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION IN THE COAL-MINING INDUSTRY OF THE USSR - AN INTERIM ASSESSMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. COUNCIL MINIST USSR,ACAD NATL ECON,DEPT IND ECON & ORG,MOSCOW,USSR. ACAD SCI USSR,COMMISS NAT RESOURCES,MOSCOW V-71,USSR. CR ASTAKHOV A, 1977, COAL RESOURCES WORKI ASTAKHOV A, 1984, RR8413 IIASA ASTAKHOV A, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL DEV IN ASTAKHOV A, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL DEV IN FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GRUBLER A, 1990, LECTURE NOTES EC MAT, V340, P117 KRUGLIKOV AG, 1985, OCT IIASA TASK FORC KUNDEL H, 1979, GLUCKAUF, V115, P748 KUNDEL H, 1985, GERMAN LONGWALL MINI, P9 KUZNETSOV KK, 1971, COAL DEPOSITS OPENCA MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 IIASA NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, RR7912 IIASA POSCH M, 1987, METHODS ESTIMATING S RAY G, 1979, INNOVATION PROCESS E RAY G, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS, V2, P1 SOUDER WE, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P1 NR 18 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1990 VL 38 IS 3 BP 223 EP 256 PG 34 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EG964 UT ISI:A1990EG96400002 ER PT J AU SCHELLING, TC TI GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FORCES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SCHELLING, TC, HARVARD UNIV,JOHN F KENNEDY SCH GOVT,79 JOHN F KENNEDY ST,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1982, CARB DIOX CLIM 2ND A *NAT RES COUNC, 1983, CHANG CLIM REP CARB AUSUBEL JH, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE, P153 MALONE TF, 1968, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V49, P1134 NORDHAUS WD, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE, P87 ROBIN GD, 1986, SCOPE 29 GREENHOUSE, P323 NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1990 VL 38 IS 3 BP 257 EP 264 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EG964 UT ISI:A1990EG96400003 ER PT J AU HELM, JL SCHNEIDER, SH TI WHAT TO DO ABOUT CO2 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HELM, JL, COLUMBIA UNIV,DEPT APPL PHYS & NUCL ENGN,NEW YORK,NY 10027. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1987, AGR BIOT STRAT NAT C *NAT RES COUNC, 1987, CURR ISS ATM CHANG S AUSUBEL JH, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS BERNABO JC, 1977, QUATERNARY RES, V8, P64 BOLIN B, 1985, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL BOULDING E, 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE EFFEC DICKINSON RE, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL KASTING JF, 1988, SCI AM, V258, P90 KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC C LEE T, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV, P114 MANABE S, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P626 MARCHETTI C, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S MCCORMICK WT, 1990, ENERGY PRODUCTION CO, P165 MEAD M, 1976, FOGARTY INT CTR P, V39 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 PETERS RL, 1989, P C CONSEQUENCES GRE RAMANATHAN V, 1985, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V90, P5547 SAND PH, 1990, ENERGY PRODUCTION CO, P75 SCHELLING TC, 1990, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC SCHNEIDER SH, 1979, ENERGY, V4, P911 SCHNEIDER SH, 1984, COEVOLUTION CLIMATE SCHNEIDER SH, 1987, NOV ENG F C RISK AN SCHNEIDER SH, 1987, SCI AM, V256, P72 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P771 SCOTT D, 1987, M2761987E MIN SUPPL SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V2 STAVINS RN, 1988, PROJECT 88 HARNESSIN WUEBBLES DJ, 1988, DOENBB0083 NAT TECHN NR 29 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1990 VL 38 IS 3 BP 265 EP 285 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EG964 UT ISI:A1990EG96400004 ER PT J AU LAETZ, TJ TI PREDICTIONS AND PERCEPTIONS - DEFINING THE TRAFFIC CONGESTION PROBLEM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP LAETZ, TJ, US GEN ACCOUNTING OFF,SUITE 800,1244 SPEER BLVD,DENVER,CO 80204. CR 1988, GRIDLOCK FUTURE MOBI *FED HIGHW ADM, 1977, 10 WORK PAP *FED HIGHW ADM, 1987, URB TRAFF CONG PERSP *NAT COUNC PUBL WO, 1988, FRAG F REP AM PUBL W, P1 *SO CA ASS GOV, 1987, COSTS CONG, P1 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1988, OTATET283, P115 *US TRANSP RES BOA, 1985, 209 SPEC REP CERVERO R, 1986, SUBURBAN GRIDLOCK, R21 DELABARRA MX, 1987, UNPUB HLTH COSTS TRA DENTZER S, 1988, US NEWS WORLD REP, V105, P58 JOYCE TJ, 1989, J URBAN ECON, V25, P32 JU RS, 1987, TRANSPORT Q, V41, P520 LINDLEY J, 1987, ITE J, V57, P29 LOMAX T, 1988, IMPACT DECLINING MOB, P56 NOVACO R, 1988, AUTOMOBILE DRIVING A ROTHENBERG M, 1988, STRATEGIES ALLEVIATE, P374 NR 16 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1990 VL 38 IS 3 BP 287 EP 292 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA EG964 UT ISI:A1990EG96400005 ER PT J AU GORDON, TJ TI THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT - AN OUTLINE AND REQUEST FOR COMMENTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP GORDON, TJ, FUTURES GRP INC,GLASTONBURY,CT. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1990 VL 38 IS 2 BP 111 EP 115 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DY851 UT ISI:A1990DY85100001 ER PT J AU PAUCHANT, TC MITROFF, II TI CRISIS MANAGEMENT - MANAGING PARADOX IN A CHAOTIC WORLD SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV LAVAL,SCH BUSINESS ADM,QUEBEC CITY G1K 7P4,QUEBEC,CANADA. UNIV SO CALIF,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CTR CRISIS MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR 1988, PUBLIC CITIZEN *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ACKOFF RL, 1981, CREATING CORPORATE F ARGYRIS C, 1957, PERSONALITY ORG ARGYRIS C, 1978, ORG LEARNING AYRES RU, 1987, TECHNOL SOC, V9, P19 BETTELHEIM B, 1943, J ABNORM SOC PSYCH, V38, P417 BILLINGS RS, 1980, ADM SCI Q, V25, P300 BOWMAN E, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P387 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P169 CHURCHMAN CW, 1979, SYSTEMS APPROACH CROZIER M, 1963, PHENOMENE BUREAUCRAT DENIS H, 1988, EPMRT8829 EC POL MON DURKHEIM E, 1982, RULES SOCIOLOGICAL M EMERY FE, 1973, SOCIAL ECOLOGY CONTE EVEREST L, 1989, GAZETTE 0224, B3 FINK SB, 1986, CRISIS MANAGEMENT PL FINK SL, 1971, J APPLIED BEHAVIORAL, V7, P15 FORRESTER JW, 1979, STUDENT HDB STUDY FU, P129 GOLDSMITH E, 1971, GEN SYST, V16, P69 HABERMAS J, 1973, LEGITIMATION CRISIS HALL RI, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P185 HERMANN CF, 1963, ADM SCI Q, V8, P61 HOLSTI OR, 1971, INT SOCIAL SCI, V53, P53 JACOB JP, 1984, CRISE CHUCHOTEMENTS KHANDWALLA PN, 1978, J BUS ADMIN, V9, P151 KOHUT H, 1977, RESTORATION SELF LAGADEC P, 1987, INSURING MANAGING HA LAGADEC P, 1988, ETATS URGENCE DEFAIL LEVISTRAUSS C, 1977, ANTHR STRUCTURALE LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MACCOBY M, 1976, GAMES MAN WINNING LO MARCH JG, 1958, ORGANIZATIONS MARCUS AA, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V22, P33 MARCUS AA, 1988, ADM SCI Q, V33, P154 MARUYAMA M, 1963, AM SCI, V51, P164 MASUCH M, 1985, ADMIN SCI QUART, V30, P14 MAY R, 1958, EXISTENTIAL PSYCHOL MERTON RK, 1957, SOCIAL THEORY SOCIAL MEYERS GC, 1986, IT HITS FAN MANAGING MITROFF II, 1984, CORPORATE TRAGEDIES MITROFF II, 1986, J BUS STRAT, V6, P40 MITROFF II, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P83 MORGAN G, 1986, IMAGES ORG PARSONS T, 1956, ADM SCI Q, V1, P63 PAUCHANT TC, ANNOTATED BIBLIO CRI PAUCHANT TC, THESIS U SO CALIFORN PAUCHANT TC, 1988, IND CRISIS Q, V2, P53 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PFEFFER J, 1978, EXTERNAL CONTROL ORG PORTER ME, 1980, COMPETITIVE STRATEGY QUARANTELLI EL, 1978, DISASTERS THEORY RES QUARANTELLI EL, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P373 SCHUMACHER EF, 1979, GOOD WORK SCHWARTZ HS, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V22, P59 SEHTI SP, 1985, NEW MANAGEMENT, V3, P40 SHRIVASTAVA P, 1987, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SHRIVASTAVA P, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P285 SMART C, 1977, ADM SCI Q, V22, P640 SMART CF, 1978, STUDIES CRISIS MANAG STARBUCK WH, 1978, J BUS ADMIN, P111 STAW BM, 1981, ADM SCI Q, V26, P501 THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TRIST E, 1980, FUTURES, V12, P113 TURNER BA, 1976, ADM SCI Q, V21, P378 TURNER BA, 1978, MAN MADE DISASTERS WATZLAWICK P, 1988, ULTRASOLUTIONS FAIL WEBER M, 1947, THEORY SOCIAL EC ORG WEICK KE, 1979, SOCIAL PSYCHOL ORG WEICK KE, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P305 WENDER PH, 1968, PSYCHIATRY, V31, P309 NR 72 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1990 VL 38 IS 2 BP 117 EP 134 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DY851 UT ISI:A1990DY85100002 ER PT J AU LEHTILA, A SILVENNOINEN, P VIRA, J TI A BELIEF NETWORK MODEL FOR FORECASTING WITHIN THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 TECH RES CTR FINLAND,DIV ENERGY TECHNOL,VUORIMIEHENTIE 5,SF-02150 ESPOO 15,FINLAND. CR *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1989, EGC896 WORK DOC LEHTILA A, 1988, ENERGY EC GROWTH REV PEARL J, 1986, ARTIF INTELL, V29, P241 PEARL J, 1986, UCLA CSD860024 COMP PEARL J, 1987, ARTIF INTELL, V32, P245 NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1990 VL 38 IS 2 BP 135 EP 150 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DY851 UT ISI:A1990DY85100003 ER PT J AU PRASAD, AVS SOMASEKHARA, N TI THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS FOR CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGIES - AN APPLICATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INDIAN INST SCI,DEPT IND MANAGEMENT,BANGALORE 560012,KARNATAKA,INDIA. CR LINSTONE HA, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P275 MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA PORTER AL, 1980, GUIDE BOOK TECHNOLOG PRASAD S, 1988, THESIS INDIAN I SCI RAMANUJAM V, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P81 REEGER WG, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V23, P89 SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SHARIF MN, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V24, P15 SOMASEKHARA N, 1986, TECHNOLOGY POLICIES, P221 ZAHEDI F, 1986, INTERFACES, V16, P96 NR 10 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1990 VL 38 IS 2 BP 151 EP 158 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DY851 UT ISI:A1990DY85100004 ER PT J AU NUTT, PC TI PREVENTING DECISION DEBACLES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 OHIO STATE UNIV,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,COLUMBUS,OH 43210. OHIO STATE UNIV,DEPT HOSP & HLTH SERV ADM,COLUMBUS,OH 43210. RP NUTT, PC, OHIO STATE UNIV,DEPT MANAGEMENT & HUMAN RESOURCES,1583 PERRY ST,ROOM 246,COLUMBUS,OH 43210. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1990 VL 38 IS 2 BP 159 EP 174 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DY851 UT ISI:A1990DY85100005 ER PT J AU XIAO, TY TI A COMBINED GROWTH-MODEL FOR TREND FORECASTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP XIAO, TY, HEBEI ACAD SCI,INST APPL MATH,SHIJIAZHUANG,PEOPLES R CHINA. CR POWER PRODUCTION FUE 1985, ALMANAC CHINAS STATI AYRES RU, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P375 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BRETSCHNEIDER SI, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P129 COLEMAN JS, 1964, INTRO MATH SOCIOLOGY EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 EASINGWOOD CJ, 1981, NONUNIFORM INNOVATIO FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FLOYD A, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA GAUSE GF, 1934, STRUGGLE EXISTENCE GILL S, 1951, P CAMBRIDGE PHIL SOC, V47, P96 HIMMELBAU DM, 1972, APPLIED NONLINEAR PR MAHAJAN V, 1977, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V24, P12 MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA NELDER JA, 1962, BIOMETRICS, V18, P614 RICHARDS FJ, 1959, J EXPT BOTANY, V10, P290 SAHAL DA, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P81 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SHARIF MN, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 SKIADAS CH, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P313 NR 22 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1990 VL 38 IS 2 BP 175 EP 186 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DY851 UT ISI:A1990DY85100006 ER PT J AU MASINI, EB GILLWALD, K TI ON FUTURES STUDIES AND THEIR SOCIETAL CONTEXT WITH PARTICULAR FOCUS ON WEST-GERMANY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 WISSENSCH ZENTRUM BERLIN SOZIAL FORSCH,BERLIN,GERMANY. RP MASINI, EB, WORLD FUTURE STUDIES FEDERAT,SCI COUNCIL,CASELLA POSTALE 6203,ROMA PRATI,ITALY. CR ABDALLA IS, 1983, ARAB ALTERNATIVE FUT AYRES RU, 1989, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V35, P95 BARNEY GO, 1980, GLOBAL 2000 REPORT P BELL D, 1967, YEAR 200 WORK PROGR DEJOUVENEL B, 1965, ART CONJECTURE FLECHTHEIM OK, 1966, HIST FUTUROLOGY HAUSEN K, 1986, WIE MENNLICH IST WIS JAENICKE M, 1985, UNS GOLDENEN NEUNZIG JUNGK R, 1976, JAHRTAUSENDMENSCH BE KATO H, 1986, FUTURE, V17, P570 KLEIN D, 1972, FUTUROLOGIE ZUKUNFTS KOCH C, 1968, KURSBUCH 14 KRITIK Z, V4, P1 KOHL H, 1987, PRESSE INFORMATIONSA LINSTONE H, 1985, FUTURES RES Q, V1, P47 LINSTONE H, 1987, 872 REP MASINI E, 1978, HDB FUTURES RES MASINI E, 1988, AUG TENR C HUM CULT MASUDA Y, 1980, INFORMATION SOC MCHALE J, 1977, FUTURES DIRECTORY MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEYERABICH KM, 1986, GRENZEN ATOMWIRTSCHA POPPER KR, 1962, KOLNER Z SOZIOLOGIE, V14, P233 RICHARDSON JJ, 1975, NATIONAL POLICY STYL SLOTERDIJK P, 1983, KRITIK ZYNISCHEN VER THURN C, 1981, RUCKKEHR IMAGINAREN TOFFLER A, 1970, FUTURE SHOCK TOFFLER A, 1980, 3RD WAVE WATTS N, 1987, ENV EUROPE NR 28 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1990 VL 38 IS 2 BP 187 EP 199 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DY851 UT ISI:A1990DY85100007 ER PT J AU MITROFF, II TI THE IDEA OF THE CORPORATION AS AN IDEA SYSTEM - COMMERCE IN THE SYSTEMS AGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MITROFF, II, UNIV SO CALIF,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CTR CRISIS MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR ABEGGLEN JC, 1985, KAISHA JAPANESE CORP ABERNATHY WJ, 1983, IND RENAISSANCE ACKOFF RL, 1972, PURPOSEFUL SYSTEMS ACKOFF RL, 1981, CREATING CORPORATE F BLUESTONE B, 1982, DEINDUSTRIALIZATION CHASE RB, 1988, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT E, V2, P191 CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS FALLOWS J, 1985, ATLANTIC DEC, P56 GEVIRTZ D, 1984, BUSINESS PLAN AM ENT HARRIS M, 1981, WHY NOTHING WORKS AN LEARS TJJ, 1981, NO PLACE GRACE ANTIM LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MAGAZINER IC, 1983, MINDING AM BUSINESS MASON RO, 1981, CHALLENGING STRATEGI MITROFF II, 1974, SUBJECTIVE SIDE SCI MITROFF II, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P51 MITROFF II, 1987, BUSINESS NOT USUAL R PHILLIPS K, 1984, STAYING TOP BUSINESS PIORE MJ, 1984, 2ND IND DIVIDE REICH RB, 1983, NEXT AM FRONTIER REICH RB, 1987, TALES NEW AM THUROW LC, 1985, ZERO-SUM SOC NR 22 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 1 EP 14 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800001 ER PT J AU MONTREY, H UTTERBACK, JM TI CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE OF STRUCTURAL PANELS IN THE WOOD PRODUCTS INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ROCKY MT FOREST & RANGE EXPT STN,FT COLLINS,CO. MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. RP MONTREY, H, US FOREST SERV,FOREST PROD LAB,MADISON,WI 53705. CR 1983, E32 AM PLYW ASS EC R *KIDD PEAB CO INC, 1980, FOR PROD IND CRIT IS *NAT PART ASS, 1979, ANSI A2081 *US DEP COMM, 1974, PS174 PROD STAND FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 LITTLE AD, 1973, BARRIERS INNOVATION MONTREY HM, 1982, THESIS MIT CAMBRIDGE UTTERBACK JM, 1986, MANAGEMENT PRODUCTIV, P113 NR 8 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 15 EP 35 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800002 ER PT J AU PETERSEN, HJS TI DIFFUSION OF COAL-GAS TECHNOLOGY IN DENMARK, 1850-1920 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP PETERSEN, HJS, TECH UNIV DENMARK,INST KEM IND,DTH BLDG 227,DK-2800 LYNGBY,DENMARK. CR *KOB GASV, 1932, KOB BEL BOCHER SB, 1944, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V47, P1 BUNDGAARDNIELSE.M, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P33 LANG JO, 1922, DANSKE GASVAERKERS H MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 SCHOVELIN J, 1914, DANSKE PETROLEUMS AK NR 6 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 37 EP 48 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800003 ER PT J AU REDDY, NM TI PRODUCT SELF-REGULATION - A PARADOX OF TECHNOLOGY POLICY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP REDDY, NM, CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV,WEATHERHEAD SCH MANAGEMENT,CLEVELAND,OH 44106. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 49 EP 63 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800004 ER PT J AU UDWADIA, FE TI CREATIVITY AND INNOVATION IN ORGANIZATIONS - 2 MODELS AND MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP UDWADIA, FE, UNIV SO CALIF,BUSINESS ADM,OLIN HALL 430 K,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR ALLEN TJ, 1977, MANAGING FLOW TECHNO AMABILE TM, 1983, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V45, P357 AMABILE TM, 1983, SOCIAL PSYCHOL CREAT AMABILE TM, 1988, HDB CREATIVE INNOVAT, P501 AMABILE TM, 1988, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V10, P123 BARRON F, 1981, ANNU REV PSYCHOL, V32, P439 CLARKE M, 1987, ROLE SCI TECHNOLOGY GARVEY WD, 1979, COMMUNICATION ESSENC KANTER RM, 1988, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V10, P169 KASPERSON CJ, 1978, HUMAN COMMUNICATION, V4, P113 KATZ R, 1988, MANAGING PROFESSIONA LABICH K, 1988, FORTUNE, V117, P50 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MANSFIELD RS, 1981, PSYCHOL CREATIVITY D MUMFORD MD, 1988, PSYCHOL BULL, V103, P27 NEWELL A, 1962, CONT APPROACHES CREA PELZ DC, 1976, SCI ORG SIMON HA, 1988, HDB CREATIVE INNOVAT, P11 SIMONTON DK, 1988, SCI GENIUS PSYCHOL S TUSHMAN ML, 1988, READINGS MANAGEMENT VONGLINOW MA, 1985, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V15, P803 WHITEHEAD AN, 1910, PRINCIPIA MATHEMATIC ZUCKERMAN H, 1977, SCI ELITE NOBEL LAUR NR 23 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 65 EP 80 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800005 ER PT J AU GEORGANTZAS, NC MADU, CN TI COGNITIVE-PROCESSES IN TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT AND TRANSFER SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 PACE UNIV,JOSEPH I LUBIN GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,NEW YORK,NY 10038. RP GEORGANTZAS, NC, FORDHAM UNIV,JOSEPH A MARTINO GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT SYST,NEW YORK,NY 10023. CR 1980, CURRENT PROSPECTIVE 1986, SUMMARY 6TH ANN PROD 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P19 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P5 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P69 1988, ECONOMIST 1001, P75 ACKOFF RL, 1972, PURPOSEFUL SYSTEMS ACKOFF RL, 1981, CREATING CORPORATE F ALAREZ J, 1985, J AM SOC INFORM SCI, V36, P259 ALEXANDER C, 1964, NOTES SYNTHESIS FORM AMARA R, 1983, BUSINESS PLANNING UN AXELROD R, 1976, STRUCTURE DECISION BALKE WM, 1973, ADM SCI Q, V18, P311 BANNISTER D, 1971, INQUIRING MAN THEORY BOUGON M, 1977, ADM SCI Q, V22, P606 BOULDING KE, 1977, BEHAV SCI, V22, P299 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P183 CHANIN MN, 1985, ACAD MANAGE REV, V10, P663 COHEN B, 1988, GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES COLE WE, 1987, J ECON ISSUES, V21, P309 COSIER RA, 1977, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V19, P378 COUGHLIN CC, 1983, J WORLD TRADE, V17, P12 DAS S, 1987, J INT ECON, V22, P171 DERAKHSHANI S, 1983, DEV ECON, V21, P27 DIFFENBACH J, 1982, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT, V3, P133 DOZ Y, 1980, HARVARD BUSINESS MAR, P149 DUNBAR RLM, 1981, 8179 NEW YORK U WORK EDEN C, 1988, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V36, P1 FERDOWS K, 1981, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V16, P36 GEE S, 1981, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER GILFILLAN SC, 1952, REV ECON STAT, V34, P368 GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC HAMMOND KR, 1971, SCIENCE, V172, P903 HAMMOND KR, 1973, HUMAN JUDGMENT DECIS HAUSTEIN HD, 1985, INNOVATION EFFICIENC HELLER PB, 1985, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER HOLLING CS, 1971, J AM I PLANNERS, V37, P224 ITO S, 1986, DEV ECON, V24, P334 KELLEY HH, 1980, ANNU REV PSYCHOL, V31, P457 KELLY GA, 1955, PSYCHOL PERSONAL CON, V1 KELLY GA, 1955, PSYCHOL PERSONAL CON, V2 KIM W, 1988, J BUS STRAT, V9, P33 KOCHAN TA, 1988, SCIENCE, V240, P287 KOMADA F, 1986, DEV ECON, V24, P405 KUZNETS S, 1966, MODERN EC GROWTH RAT LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LITTERER JA, 1966, ACAD MANAGE J, V9, P178 MADU CN, IN PRESS LONG RANGE MADU CN, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC MADU CN, 1988, ENG MANAGEMENT INT, V5, P53 MARUYAMA M, 1963, AM SCI, V51, P164 MARUYAMA M, 1963, AM SCI, V51, P250 MASON RO, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, B403 MASON RO, 1981, CHALLENGING STRATEGI MELEKA AH, 1985, MANAGE INT REV, V25, P36 MITROFF II, 1979, MANAGE SCI, V25, P583 MONTAZEMI AR, 1986, MIS Q, V10, P27 MYTELKA LK, 1979, REGIONAL DEV GLOBAL OGBURN WF, 1922, SOCIAL CHANGE PAUL K, 1985, ACAD MANAGE REV, V10, P8 PRAHALAD CK, 1987, MULTINATIONAL MISSIO PRASAD SB, 1986, TECHNOVATION, V4, P3 RAINES H, 1987, NY TIMES 1022, D1 RAINES H, 1987, NY TIMES 1022, D6 ROBERTS N, 1983, INTRO COMPUTER SIMUL ROBINSON RD, 1988, INT TRANSFER TECHNOL RODRIGUES CA, 1985, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V20, P21 ROGERS EM, 1971, COMMUNICATION INNOVA SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SALANCIK GR, 1974, ADM SCI Q, V19, P453 SCHOLZ L, 1977, CAUSES DIMENSIONS SE SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SCHWENK CR, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P263 SCHWENK CR, 1984, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V5, P111 SHAPIRO HJ, 1987, IDEA PSYCHOL CONCEPT SHRIVASTAVA P, 1988, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SINGH ZN, 1983, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER SMIRCICH L, 1985, ACAD MANAGE REV, V10, P724 TODD D, 1983, GROWTH CHANGE, V14, P46 TSURUMI Y, 1979, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V14, P43 UTTERBACK JM, 1974, SCIENCE, V183, P620 VANDEVLIERT E, 1985, J APPL BEHAV SCI, V21, P19 VANGIGCH JP, 1978, APPLIED GENERAL SYST VERNON R, 1980, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P150 WATSON HJ, 1981, COMPUTER SIMULATION WEICK KE, 1979, SOCIAL PSYCHOL ORG ZELENY M, 1986, HUM SYST MANAGE, V6, P109 NR 87 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 81 EP 95 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800006 ER PT J AU MARUYAMA, M TI NONECONOMIC PHILOSOPHIES OF MONEY - A CAUSE OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT PROBLEMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MARUYAMA, M, AOYAMA GAKUIN UNIV,SCH INT POLIT ECON & BUSINESS,SHIBUYA 4-4-25,SHIBUYA KU,TOKYO 150,JAPAN. CR MARUYAMA M, 1960, METHODOS, V12, P251 MARUYAMA M, 1961, PHYLON, V22, P41 MARUYAMA M, 1963, AM SCI, V51, P164 MARUYAMA M, 1963, AM SCI, V51, P250 MARUYAMA M, 1980, CURR ANTHROPOL, V21, P589 MARUYAMA M, 1985, ASIA PACIFIC J MANAG, V2, P125 MARUYAMA M, 1986, SHUUKAN TOOYOO 1129, P88 MARUYAMA M, 1988, ACADEMY MANAGEMENT E, V2, P67 MARUYAMA M, 1988, EKONOMISTO DEC, P78 MARUYAMA M, 1988, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V34, P305 MARUYAMA M, 1989, HUMAN SYSTEMS MANAGE, V8, P71 NR 11 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 97 EP 100 PG 4 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800007 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA - A DARKENING FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1990 VL 38 IS 1 BP 101 EP 106 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DR818 UT ISI:A1990DR81800008 ER PT J AU RAJARATNAM, S TI WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE TECHNOLOGICAL RACE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP RAJARATNAM, S, INST SE ASIAN STUDIES,SINGAPORE,SINGAPORE. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 315 EP 320 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400001 ER PT J AU SAGASTI, FR TI AN INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH TO NATIONAL-DEVELOPMENT PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SAGASTI, FR, WORLD BANK,DIV STRATEG PLANNING,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 321 EP 334 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400002 ER PT J AU NUTT, PC TI STRATEGIC DECISION-PROCESS MATCHED TO THE PUZZLEMENT IN TOUGH DECISIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 OHIO STATE UNIV,HOSP & HLTH SERV ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,COLUMBUS,OH 43210. RP NUTT, PC, OHIO STATE UNIV,HOSP & HLTH SERV ADM,DEPT MANAGEMENT & HUMAN RESOURCE,COLUMBUS,OH 43210. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 335 EP 353 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400003 ER PT J AU LAVARAJ, UA GORE, AP TI ON INTERPRETING PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTIONS FITTED TO TIMES OF 1ST ADOPTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV POONA,DEPT STAT,POONA 411007,MAHARASHTRA,INDIA. CR BAIN LJ, 1978, STATISTICAL ANAL REL BARLOW RE, 1975, STATISTICAL THEORY R BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BENJAMIN B, 1960, OPERATIONAL RES Q, V11, P205 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 EASINGWOOD CJ, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P273 HJORTH U, 1980, TECHNOMETRICS, V22, P99 JAIN D, 1985, EFFECT PRICE DEMAND MAHAJAN V, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V14, P231 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MCDONALD JB, 1978, COMMUNICATIONS STA A, V16, P1049 MCDONALD JB, 1987, IEEE T RELIAB, V36, P463 PEMBERTON HE, 1936, AM SOCIOL REV, V1, P547 PEMBERTON HE, 1937, AM SOCIOL REV, V2, P55 RAJARSHI S, 1988, COMMUNICATION STAT T, V17, P2597 RATKOWSKY DA, 1983, NONLINEAR REGRESSION SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P247 STAPLETON E, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P325 NR 19 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 355 EP 370 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400004 ER PT J AU GILBERTSON, DW CAMPBELLHUNT, DM TI QUICK ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING - A NEW-ZEALAND APPLICATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NEW ZEALAND DEPT SCI & IND RES,FUTURES RES CONSULTANT,WELLINGTON,NEW ZEALAND. RP GILBERTSON, DW, VICTORIA UNIV WELLINGTON,MANAGEMENT GRP,POB 600,WELLINGTON,NEW ZEALAND. CR *NZ DEP SCI IND R, 1982, NZ DEP SCI IND RES D, P5 BECK PW, 1982, LONG RANGE PLANN, V15, P12 BECKER HS, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V13, P95 DAVIS P, 1982, NZ LABOUR PERSPECTIV ENZER S, 1983, APPLYING METHODS TEC NANUS B, 1982, LONG RANGE PLANN, V15, P39 NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 371 EP 382 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400005 ER PT J AU WAISSBLUTH, M DEGORTARI, A TI A METHODOLOGY FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PLANNING BASED UPON ECONOMIC SCENARIOS AND DELPHI TECHNIQUES - THE CASE OF MEXICAN AGROINDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NATL AUTONOMOUS UNIV MEXICO,CTR TECHNOL INNOVAT,APARTADO POSTAL 20-103,MEXICO CITY 01000,DF,MEXICO. CR *COM EC AM LAT, 1988, EL MERC VAL, P28 *SECR REL EXT, 1987, OBJ PRIOR ESTR COOP *UNESCO, 1977, STUD DOC SCI POL 40 BULMERTHOMAS V, 1982, INPUT OUTPUT ANAL DE DORFMAN R, 1958, LINEAR PROGRAMMING E LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI NUNEZ DR, 1987, COMERCIO EXTERIOR 12, V37, P983 WAISSBLUTH M, 1987, AGROINDUSTRIA MEXICO WAISSBLUTH M, 1987, INVESTIGACION EC, V180, P143 NR 9 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 383 EP 397 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400006 ER PT J AU VANDIJK, JAGM TI DELPHI METHOD AS A LEARNING INSTRUMENT - BANK EMPLOYEES DISCUSSING AN AUTOMATION PROJECT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP VANDIJK, JAGM, STATE UNIV UTRECHT,FAC SOCIAL SCI,POB 80140,UTRECHT,NETHERLANDS. CR DAJANI JS, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V13 RAUCH W, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15 SACKMAN H, 1975, DELPHI CRITIQUE EXPE SCHNEIDER JB, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3 TUROFF M, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI VANDIJK JAG, 1987, DELPHI METHODE TER O VANDIJK JAG, 1989, QUAL QUANT, V23, P109 VANDIJK JAG, 1989, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V37, P293 NR 8 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 399 EP 407 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400007 ER PT J AU MARCHETTI, C TI A PERSONAL MEMOIR - FROM TERAWATTS TO WITCHES - MY LIFE WITH LOGISTICS AT IIASA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MARCHETTI, C, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR MARCHETTI C, 1971, TECHNOL FOR, V3, P75 MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 NR 2 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1990 VL 37 IS 4 BP 409 EP 414 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DP584 UT ISI:A1990DP58400008 ER PT J AU HENDERSON, H TI ISSUES PAPER-4 FROM ECONOMISM TO SYSTEMS-THEORY AND NEW INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR 1988, PROJECT 88 HARNESSIN 1989, NY TIMES 0928 1989, NY TIMES 1008 1989, NY TIMES 1009 *S COMM, 1989, NEW WAY MEAS DEV CAMPBELL J, 1988, POWSER MYTH CAPRA F, TAO PHYSICS DALY M, 1984, PURE LUST EHRENFELD D, 1978, ARROGANCE HUMANISM EISLER R, 1987, CHALICE BLADE FRIEDMAN M, 1980, FREE TO CHOOSE FUKUYAMA F, 1989, NATIONAL INTERES SUM GIMBUTAS M, 1982, GODDESSES GODS OLD E HARDIN G, 1977, LIMITS ALTRUISM HENDERSON H, 1972, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V8 HENDERSON H, 1973, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL HENDERSON H, 1974, ANN AM POLIT SOC SCI, V412, P34 HENDERSON H, 1978, CREATING ALTERNATIVE HENDERSON H, 1982, POLITICS ETHICS SOLA HENDERSON H, 1984, POST EC POLICIES WIN HENDERSON H, 1986, INQUIRY LONDON JUN HENDERSON H, 1988, POLITICS SOLAR AGE NEUMANN E, 1955, GREAT MOTHER POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION RUSSELL C, 1989, BUSINESS SOC REV, V70, P47 SIMON H, 1978, AM EC REV SOROKIN P, 1954, WAYS POWERS LOVE SPRETNAK C, 1984, GREEN POLITICS STEVENS WK, 1989, NY TIMES 0829 NR 29 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1990 VL 37 IS 3 BP 213 EP 233 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DF115 UT ISI:A1990DF11500001 ER PT J AU BUSH, WR TI TELECOMMUTING - THE CASE OF RESEARCH SOFTWARE-DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP BUSH, WR, UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT ELECT ENGN & COMP SCI,DIV COMP SCI,571 EVANS HALL,BERKELEY,CA 94720. CR *DEF COMM AG, 1980, ARPANET DIR BURGELMAN RA, 1988, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT GROSS TB, 1986, TELECOMMUTING FUTURE KINSMAN F, 1987, TELECOMMUTERS LEAVITT H, 1988, MANAGERIAL PSYCHOL M LOFLAND J, 1984, ANAL SOCIAL SETTINGS PRATT JH, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P1 RAMSOWER RM, 1985, TELECOMMUTING ORG BE SALOMON I, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P15 TOFFLER A, 1980, 3RD WAVE NR 10 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1990 VL 37 IS 3 BP 235 EP 250 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DF115 UT ISI:A1990DF11500002 ER PT J AU DORF, RC WORTHINGTON, KKF TI TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER FROM UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH LABORATORIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP DORF, RC, UNIV CALIF DAVIS,COLL ENGN,DAVIS,CA 95616. CR *GOV FOC DAT TRAN, 1984, AV WEEK SPAC TECHN, P131 ALLEN JT, 1973, R D MANAGE, V4, P41 ALLEN TJ, 1977, MANAGING FLOW TECHNO ALLEN TJ, 1983, RES POLICY, V12, P199 BIRCH DL, 1984, ROLE PLAYED HIGH TEC BIRCH DL, 1987, ATOMIZATION AM MAR, P21 BURGELMAN RA, 1986, INSIDE CORPORATE INN COHEN H, 1979, RES MANAGEMENT MAY, P11 LONG JR, 1985, CHEM ENG NEWS 0701, P7 MORONE J, 1982, RES MANAGEMENT MAY, P35 MOSBACHER CJ, 1987, RES DEV JAN, P68 NORTH DM, 1986, AVIATION WEEK S 0317, P16 ROBERTS EB, 1980, HARVARD BUSINESS APR, P134 NR 13 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1990 VL 37 IS 3 BP 251 EP 266 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DF115 UT ISI:A1990DF11500003 ER PT J AU CHIANG, JT TI THE RESEARCH STRATEGY IN MANAGEMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CHIANG, JT, MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,E52-534,50 MEMORIAL DR,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. CR *AM ASS ENGN SOC, 1988, 1987 AAES PUBL AFF W *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1984, COMM BIOTECHN INT AN *US NAT RES COUNC, 1987, MAN TECHN HIDD COMP ABERNATHY WJ, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P379 ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P40 ALLEN TJ, 1984, MANAGING FLOW TECHNO, P11 BAILYN L, 1986, UNPUB PROXIMATE VARI BARANSON J, 1978, TECHNOLOGY MULTINATI COOK TD, 1979, QUASIEXPERIMENTATION, P37 DURKHEIM E, 1964, RULES SOCIOLOGICAL M FEIBLEMAN JK, 1961, TECHNOL CULT, P305 FORRESTER JW, 1961, IND DYNAMICS GLASER BG, 1967, DISCOVERY GROUNDED T GUILE BR, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN GUSTAFSON T, 1988, UNPUB RESPONSES SOVI HOMER JB, 1983, THESIS MIT SLOAN SCH KUHN TS, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LAWLER EE, 1985, DOING RES IS USEFUL LEDERMAN LL, 1987, SCIENCE 0904, P1129 MILLER D, 1983, METHOD STRATEGIES SO MINTZBERG H, 1983, STRUCTURE FIVES DESI NELSON R, 1987, UNDERSTANDING TECHNI NELSON RR, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR NELSON RR, 1984, HIGH TECHNOLOGY POLI PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PERROW C, 1967, AM SOCIOL REV, V32, P194 ROBERTS EB, 1964, DYNAMICS RES DEV ROBERTS EB, 1981, BIOMEDICAL INNOVATIO ROGER EM, 1971, COMMUN INNOVATION, P136 SCOTT M, 1984, INFORMATION SYSTEMS SHARP M, 1985, EUROPE NEW TECHNOLOG SHARP M, 1987, EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGIC SIMON HA, 1962, P AM PHILOS SOC, V106, P467 THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION VONHIPPEL E, 1988, SOURCES INNOVATION WEBER M, 1949, METHODOLOGY SOCIAL S WINIECKI J, 1987, TECHNOVATION, V6, P115 WOODWARD J, 1965, IND ORG THEORY PRACT YIN RK, 1984, CASE STUDY RES DESIG NR 40 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1990 VL 37 IS 3 BP 267 EP 273 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DF115 UT ISI:A1990DF11500004 ER PT J AU MERINO, DN TI DEVELOPMENT OF A TECHNOLOGICAL S-CURVE FOR TIRE CORD TEXTILES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MERINO, DN, STEVENS INST TECHNOL LIB,DEPT MANAGEMENT,CASTLE POINT STN,HOBOKEN,NJ 07030. CR AYRES RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA BALACHANDRA R, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V16, P155 BARACH JL, 1970, CHEM ENG PROGR, V6, P15 BECKER RH, 1983, RES MANAGEMENT SEP, P31 BECKER RH, 1986, RES MANAGEMENT JUL, P21 BRIGHT JR, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA FOSTER RN, 1982, BUS WEEK, V24, P24 FOSTER RN, 1982, RES MANAGE, V1, P22 FOSTER RN, 1983, CHEMTECH DEC FOSTER RN, 1983, IND WEEK 0725 FOSTER RN, 1983, WALL STREET J MAY, V2, P26 FOSTER RN, 1985, TECHNOL SOC, V8, P127 FOSTER RN, 1986, INT MANAG, V4, P72 FOSTER RN, 1986, RES MANAGEMENT JUL, P17 HANSS EJ, 1987, 8TH ANN C AM SOC ENG HAYES RH, 1980, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P67 KOVAC FJ, 1969, U AKRON LECTURE SERI LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MARTINO JP, 1971, CHEM ENG, V27, P54 MARTINO JP, 1982, CHEM ENG, V11, P97 MERINO N, 1980, TECHNICAL S CURVE EX MITCHELL A, 1975, HDB FORECASTING TECH POGANY GA, 1986, RES MANAGEMENT JUL, P24 ROUSSEL PA, 1984, RES MANAGEMENT JAN, P29 NR 24 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1990 VL 37 IS 3 BP 275 EP 291 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DF115 UT ISI:A1990DF11500005 ER PT J AU VANDIJK, JAGM TI DELPHI QUESTIONNAIRES VERSUS INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP INTERVIEWS - A COMPARISON CASE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP VANDIJK, JAGM, STATE UNIV UTRECHT,FAC SOCIAL SCI,POB 80140,UTRECHT,NETHERLANDS. CR DELBECQ AL, 1975, GROUP TECHNIQUES PRO GUSTAFSON DH, 1973, ORG BEHAVIOR HUMAN P, V9 HOLSTI OR, 1969, CONTENT ANAL SOCIAL KRIPPENDORFF K, 1980, CONTENT ANAL INTRO I LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI MOORE CM, 1987, GROUP TECHNIQUES IDE NELMS KR, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V28 RAUCH W, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL, V15 RIGGS WE, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V23 SACKMAN H, 1975, DELPHI CRITIQUE EXPE TUROFF M, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI VANDEVEN A, 1974, GROUP DECISION MAKIN VANDIJK JAG, 1988, MAY INT C SOC SCI ME VANDIJK JAG, 1988, MENS MAATSCHAPPIJ, V63 VANDIJK JAG, 1989, QUAL QUANT, V22, P189 VANDIJK JAG, 1990, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC, V38 NR 16 TC 16 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1990 VL 37 IS 3 BP 293 EP 304 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA DF115 UT ISI:A1990DF11500006 ER PT J AU WILSON, I TI ISSUES PAPER .3. THE STATE OF STRATEGIC-PLANNING - WHAT WENT WRONG - WHAT GOES RIGHT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP WILSON, I, SRI INT,DIV MFG & SERV IND,333 RAVENSWOOD AVE,MENLO PK,CA 94025. NR 0 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 2 BP 103 EP 110 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CY474 UT ISI:A1990CY47400001 ER PT J AU AYRES, RU TI TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATIONS AND LONG WAVES .2. SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP AYRES, RU, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,DEPT ENGN & PUBL POLICY,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 2 BP 111 EP 137 PG 27 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CY474 UT ISI:A1990CY47400002 ER PT J AU DEMERS, MN TI ADDING ROBUSTNESS TO LINEAR PLANNING-MODELS THROUGH SIMULATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP DEMERS, MN, OHIO STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,103 BRICKER,190 N OVAL MALL,COLUMBUS,OH 43210. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 2 BP 139 EP 158 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CY474 UT ISI:A1990CY47400003 ER PT J AU DAVELAAR, EJ NIJKAMP, P TI TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 FREE UNIV AMSTERDAM,DEPT ECON,POB 7161,1007 MC AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 2 BP 181 EP 202 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CY474 UT ISI:A1990CY47400005 ER PT J AU MARUYAMA, M TI ORGANIZATIONAL-STRUCTURE, TRAINING, AND SELECTION OF OUTER SPACE CREW MEMBERS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MARUYAMA, M, AOYAMA GAKUIN UNIV,SCH INT POLIT ECON & BUSINESS,SHIBUYA 4-4-25,SHIBUYA KU,TOKYO 150,JAPAN. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 2 BP 203 EP 212 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CY474 UT ISI:A1990CY47400006 ER PT J AU AYRES, RU TI TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATIONS AND LONG WAVES .1. SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP AYRES, RU, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,DEPT ENGN & PUBL POLICY,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. NR 0 TC 12 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 1 BP 1 EP 37 PG 37 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CT512 UT ISI:A1990CT51200001 ER PT J AU DRESCH, SP JANSON, KR TI RECRUITMENT AND ACCOMPLISHMENT IN FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE - A GENERALIZATION OF THE GIANTS, PYGMIES MODEL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 D&N FINANCIAL CORP,HANCOCK,MI. RP DRESCH, SP, MICHIGAN TECHNOL UNIV,HOUGHTON,MI 49931. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 1 BP 59 EP 76 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CT512 UT ISI:A1990CT51200003 ER PT J AU MODY, A SHERMAN, R TI LEAPFROGGING IN SWITCHING SYSTEMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 AT&T BELL LABS,HOLMDEL,NJ 07733. RP MODY, A, WORLD BANK,1818 H ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. CR *INT TEL UN, 1987, YB COMM CARR STAT 19 HOBDAY M, 1985, DEV CHANGE, V16, P313 INAN C, 1985, TELEPHONY CHICAG AUG LITTLE AD, 1980, WORLD COMMUNICATIONS REY RF, 1984, ENG OPERATIONS BELL SOETE L, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P409 NR 6 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 1 BP 77 EP 83 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CT512 UT ISI:A1990CT51200004 ER PT J AU TASSEY, G TI STRUCTURAL-CHANGE AND COMPETITIVENESS - THE UNITED-STATES SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP TASSEY, G, NATL INST STAND & TECHNOL,ADMIN 1002,GAITHERSBURG,MD 20899. CR KODAMA F, 1986, SCIENCE, V233, P294 KODAMA F, 1986, SCIENCE, V233, P295 LINK A, 1987, STRATEGIES TECHNOLOG, CH5 NUNN E, 119 WASH U CTR STUD NR 4 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1990 VL 37 IS 1 BP 85 EP 93 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CT512 UT ISI:A1990CT51200005 ER PT J AU MOHAPATRA, PKJ VIZAYAKUMAR, K TI REVISITING CAUSALITY IN SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND KSIM MODELS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MOHAPATRA, PKJ, INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,KHARAGPUR 721302,W BENGAL,INDIA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1989 VL 36 IS 4 BP 363 EP 387 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CM943 UT ISI:A1989CM94300001 ER PT J AU MEADE, N TI TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTION - A FRAMEWORK OF STOCHASTIC-MODELS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MEADE, N, UNIV LONDON,IMPERIAL COLL,SCH MANAGEMENT,53 PRINCES GATE,EXHIBIT RD,LONDON SW7 2PG,ENGLAND. CR ANDERSON BDO, 1979, OPTIMAL FILTERING BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BRETSCHNEIDER SI, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P129 CAMERON HM, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V32, P147 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 HURTER AR, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V11, P197 LEE JC, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P61 MEADE N, 1985, J OPER RES SOC, V36, P1103 OLIVER RM, 1987, J OPER RES SOC, V38, P49 RAY GF, 1969, NATL I ECON REV, V48, P40 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 NR 11 TC 12 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1989 VL 36 IS 4 BP 389 EP 400 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CM943 UT ISI:A1989CM94300002 ER PT J AU LEE, JC LU, KW TI ALGORITHM AND PRACTICE OF FORECASTING TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTIONS WITH DATA-BASED TRANSFORMED MODELS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP LEE, JC, BELL COMMUN RES INC,STAT RES GRP,445 S ST,MORRISTOWN,NJ 07960. CR ABRAHAM B, 1983, STATISTICAL METHODS BOX GEP, 1964, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V26, P211 CHANG HS, 1977, ECONOMETRICA, V45, P1741 GAY DM, 1983, ACM T MATH SOFTWARE, V9, P503 GAY DM, 1984, NUMERICAL ANAL GNANADESIKAN R, 1980, HDB STATISTICS, V1 GRAYBILL FA, 1969, INTRO MATRICES APPLI GRIFFITHS P, 1985, APPLIED STATISTICS A LEE JC, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P61 LEE JC, 1988, ALGORITHM PRACTICE F LIEM TC, 1980, AM STAT, V34, P121 LUENBERGER DG, 1973, INTRO LINEAR NONLINE SAVIN NE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V8, P1 SEAKS TG, 1983, REV ECON STAT, V65, P160 SPITZER JJ, 1982, J AM STAT ASSOC, V77, P760 NR 15 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1989 VL 36 IS 4 BP 401 EP 414 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CM943 UT ISI:A1989CM94300003 ER PT J AU HIRST, E TI CONSERVATION PROGRAMS CAN CUT LOAD-GROWTH UNCERTAINTY FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HIRST, E, OAK RIDGE NATL LAB,POB 2008,OAK RIDGE,TN 37831. CR *BOST ED CO, 1988, LONG RANG FOR EL POW *NW POW PLANN COUN, 1986, NW CONS EL POW PL *TENN VALL AUTH, 1987, LOAD FOR POW SUPP SU CAVANAGH RC, 1986, HARVARD ENV LAW REV, V10 FORD A, 1988, IMPACT PERFORMANCE S HIRST E, 1988, AUG P ACEEE SUMM STU HIRST E, 1988, ORNLCON124 RODEKOHR M, 1987, JUN WORKSH DEAL UNC NR 8 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1989 VL 36 IS 4 BP 415 EP 424 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CM943 UT ISI:A1989CM94300004 ER PT J AU BODGER, PS HAYES, DJ BAINES, JT TI THE DYNAMICS OF PRIMARY ENERGY SUBSTITUTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV CANTERBURY,CTR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT,CHRISTCHURCH,NEW ZEALAND. RP BODGER, PS, UNIV CANTERBURY,DEPT ELECT & ELECTR ENGN,CHRISTCHURCH 1,NEW ZEALAND. CR 1981, FUTURES, V13 BAINES JT, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P267 BODGER PS, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V31, P27 BODGER PS, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P367 BODGER PS, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P167 BODGER PS, 1989, ENERGY SYSTEMS POLIC FORRESTER JW, 1976, FUTURES, P195 FORRESTER JW, 1978, TECHNOL REV, P47 GRAHAM AK, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V17, P283 HAUSTEIN HD, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P53 MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MOUTTER SP, 1986, J FORECASTING, V5, P169 ODUM HT, 1976, 41ST T NA WILDL NAT ODUM HT, 1983, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY NR 14 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1989 VL 36 IS 4 BP 425 EP 439 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA CM943 UT ISI:A1989CM94300005 ER PT J AU KELLY, HC WYCKOFF, AW TI SPECIAL ISSUE - TECHNOLOGY AND THE AMERICAN TRANSITION - CHOICES FOR THE FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP KELLY, HC, US OFF TECHNOL ASSESSMENT,WASHINGTON,DC 20510. CR NATIONAL INCOME PROD UNPUB BLS INPUT OUTP 1982, REGULATION PROCESS P 1983, B BLS EC GROWTH MODE, V2112 1984, ACTUARIAL STUDY US D, V92 1984, CURRENT POPULATI P25 1984, SURVEY CURR BUS, V64, P52 1984, SURVEY CURR BUS, V64, P80 1985, MODIFIED SOCIAL SECU 1985, UNPUB 1984 IND OCCUP 1985, UNPUB TIME SERIES DA 1985, UNPUB TOTAL EMPLOYME 1986, HOUSEHOLD FORMATION *NAT RES CO NC PAN, 1986, IMP DEF SPEND NON DE *SECR DEF, 1987, MAN IND BAS COMP *US C, 1983, DEF SPEND EC *US C, 1985, ALT WORK SCHED FED E *US C, 1986, PLANT CLOS ADV NOT R *US C, 1986, TECHN STRUCT UN REEM *US C, 1987, EL SUP NEW TECHN *US C, 1987, FED CONTR BAS RES *US C, 1987, INT COMP SERV BANK B *US C, 1987, MAN IND BAS COMP *US C, 1988, TECHN AM EC TRANS CH *US DEF SCI BOARD, 1986, TASK FORC DEF SEM DE *US GEN ACC OF, 1985, BUR LAB STAT EMPL PR ALTSCHULER I, 1984, FUTURE AUTOMOBILE RE ARROW KJ, 1962, RATE DIRECTION INVEN AUERBACH AJ, 1983, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P451 BEAN FD, 1984, PROJECTIONS NET LEGA BRANDER JA, 1984, 1464 NAT BUR EC RES BREYER S, 1982, REGULATION ITS REFOR CARTER AP, 1970, STRUCTURAL CHANGE AM, P21 CHAING AC, 1974, FNDAMENTAL METHODS M CHANDLER C, 1987, WASHINGTON POST 0908, D1 CHOATE P, 1986, HIGH FLEX SOC SHAPIN CLEM AG, 1987, MONTHLY LABOR RE AUG COUGHLIN PB, 1980, SURVEY CURRENT B JUL DEUTSCH CH, 1988, NY TIMES 0124, P1 DEVINE P, 1983, THESIS U MARYLAND EISNER R, 1987, SCIENCE, V237, P1577 FULLERTON HN, 1987, MON LABOR REV, V110, P19 GIBBONS E, 1987, MONTHLY LABOR RE APR GIESEMAN R, 1987, MONTHLY LABOR RE MAR GUTERL F, 1987, BUSINESS MONTH, V130, P44 HICKOK S, 1985, FED RESERVE BAN NY Q, P1 KANTER RM, 1987, HARVARD BUS REV, V65, P61 KRUEGER A, 1982, AM EC REV, V72 LAWRENCE RZ, CAN AM COMPETE LEONARD HB, 1986, CHECKS UNBALANCED QU LEONTIEF W, 1966, INPUT OUTPUT EC LEONTIEF W, 1984, IMPACTS AUTOMATION E LICHTENBERG FR, 1986, WALL STREET J 0821 MAGAZINER I, 1980, JAPANESE IND POLICY MANSFIELD E, 1977, Q J EC MAY MILLER RE, 1985, INPUT OUTPUT ANAL F NELSON RR, 1959, J POLITICAL EC, V67 OWEN JD, 1979, WORKING HOURS PERSONICK VA, 1987, MON LABOR REV, V110, P30 PERSONICK VA, 1987, UNPUB B BUREAU LABOR PETERSON MF, 1987, SURVEY CURRENT B APR PIORE MJ, 1984, 2ND IND DIVIDE PLANTING MA, 1988, SURVEY CURRENT B APR POUND J, 1986, REGULATION SEP, P25 RENNER L, 1986, CONSUMER DEMAND PROJ RICHARDSON DJ, 1983, IND CHANGE PUBLIC PO, P286 RITZ PM, 1980, BEASP80034 DEP COMM RUFUTH TW, 1987, PUBLIC WELFARE SPR, P10 SAUNDERS NC, 1981, MON LABOR REV, V104, P18 SAUNDERS NC, 1987, MON LABOR REV, V110, P10 SCHMIDT R, 1985, 85884EPW US C RES SE SCITOVSKY T, 1976, JOYLESS EC, P229 SILVESTRI GT, 1987, MON LABOR REV, V110, P46 SIVERSTEIN G, 1977, SURVEY CURRENT B NOV SKRZYCKI C, 1987, WASHINGTON POST 0924, D1 STONE CF, 1986, LABOR MARKET IMPLICA WATTENBERG BJ, 1987, BIRTH DEARTH, CH3 WEITZMAN ML, 1984, SHARE EC YOUNG K, 1986, TRADE RIPPLES US IND NR 79 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1989 VL 36 IS 3 BP 225 EP & PG 0 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AZ903 UT ISI:A1989AZ90300001 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI FORECASTING AND PLANNING TODAY PLUS OR MINUS 20 YEARS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, JF COATES INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 15 EP 20 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600003 ER PT J AU GORDON, TJ TI FUTURES RESEARCH - DID IT MEET ITS PROMISE - CAN IT MEET ITS PROMISE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP GORDON, TJ, FUTURES GRP,76 EASTERN BLVD,GLASTONBURY,CT 06033. NR 0 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 21 EP 26 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600004 ER PT J AU ADELSON, M TI REFLECTIONS ON THE PAST AND FUTURE OF THE FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ADELSON, M, UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES,GRAD SCH ARCHITECTURE & URBAN PLANNING,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024. CR *LA 2000 COMM, 1988, LA2000 GUOGUANG L, 1987, CHINAS EC YEAR 2000 JACOBS J, 1984, CITIES WEALTH NATION LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P3 ORNAUER H, 1976, IMAGES WORLD YEAR 20 RAZ B, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P251 NR 7 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 27 EP 37 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600005 ER PT J AU HELMER, O TI FUTURES FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article NR 0 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 39 EP 41 PG 3 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600006 ER PT J AU AMARA, R TI A NOTE ON WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED ABOUT THE METHODS OF FUTURES PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP AMARA, R, INST FUTURE,2740 SAND HILL RD,MENLO PK,CA 94025. CR 1980, IFTF P95 PAP NR 1 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 43 EP 47 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600007 ER PT J AU AYRES, RU TI THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGICAL-FORECASTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP AYRES, RU, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,DEPT ENGN & PUBL POLICY,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. CR ABRAMOVITZ M, 1956, AM EC REV, V46 ALEXANDER AJ, 1972, RAND R1017ARPAPR COR ALEXANDER AJ, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA AYRES RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA AYRES RU, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V26 AYRES RU, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27 BALACHANDRA R, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V16, P75 BRIGHT JR, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA COLE HSD, 1973, MODELS DOOM CRITIQUE CYERT RM, 1963, BEHAVIORAL THEORY FI DODSON EN, 1970, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V1, P391 DODSON EN, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P129 EASINGWOOD C, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 EIGEN M, 1971, NATURWISS, V58 FABRICANT S, 1954, 34TH NAT BUR EC RES FORRESTER JW, 1961, IND DYNAMICS FORRESTER JW, 1969, URBAN DYNAMICS FORRESTER JW, 1971, WORLD DYNAMICS GOLDEMBERG J, 1987, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE W GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34 HARKER PT, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P1383 HELMER O, 1966, SOCIAL TECHNOLOGY JANTSCH E, 1967, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA KENDRICK J, 1977, UNDERSTANDING PRODUC KENDRICK JW, 1956, REV EC STATISTICS KENDRICK JW, 1961, PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS KENDRICK JW, 1973, POSTWAR PRODUCTIVITY KNIGHT KE, 1963, THESIS CARNEGIE MELL KNIGHT KE, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P107 LANDES DS, 1969, UNBOUND PROMETHEUS T LANDSBERG HH, 1962, RESOURCES AM FUTURE LOVINS AB, 1977, SOFT ENERGY PATHS DU MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAJER H, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P335 MARTINO JP, 1981, UDRITR8136 U DAYT RE MARTINO JP, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MARTINO JP, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P211 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY OGBURN WF, 1937, TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS PALEY W, 1952, RESOURCES FREEDOM PESCHEL M, 1986, PREDATOR PREY MODEL ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERNS TECHNOLOGIC SAVIOTTI PP, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P133 SAVIOTTI PP, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P141 SAVIOTTI PP, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P309 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SILVERBERG G, 1987, EC EVOLUTION STRUCTU SILVERBERG G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC SIMON HA, 1955, Q J ECON, V69, P99 SIMON HA, 1959, AM ECON REV, V49, P253 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 SOLOW RM, 1957, REV EC STATISTICS TRIPLETT JE, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P283 VONKARMAN T, 1937, NEW HORIZONS NR 59 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 49 EP 60 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600008 ER PT J AU SIMMONDS, WHC TI GAINING A SENSE OF DIRECTION IN FUTURES WORK SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR 1988, ECONOMIST 0903 1988, ECONOMIST 1224 1989, CANADIAN BUSINE 0108 *JAPAN EC PLANN AG, LAT STAB 80 YEAR LIF BELLAMY E, 1982, LOOKING BACKWARDS BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BLACKMAN W, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P269 BLACKMAN W, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P61 BLACKMAN WA, 1972, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V3, P291 BRODEUR P, 1985, NEW YORKER 0610, P49 BRODEUR P, 1985, NEW YORKER 0617, P45 BRODEUR P, 1985, NEW YORKER 0624, P37 BRODEUR P, 1985, NEW YORKER 0701, P36 BRUNDTLAND GH, 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE GARDNER JW, 1988, FUTURE SURVEY, V10, P11 GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 HICKSON D, 1988, WORLD FUTURES FEDERA, V14, P58 LINSTONE HA, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P335 LINSTONE HA, 1976, FUTURES RES NEW DIRE, P5 MACRAE N, 1988, ECONOMIST 1224 MARIEN M, 1988, FUTURE SURVEY, V10, P6 MICHAEL D, 1973, LEARNING PLAN PLANNI, P13 ROBERTSON J, 1986, LLOYDS BANK REV, V161, P32 SIMMONDS WHC, 1976, FUTURES RES NEW DIRE, P13 VICKERS G, 1965, ART JUDGMENT NR 25 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 61 EP 67 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600009 ER PT J AU MITROFF, II TI SLIP, SLIDING AWAY - ARE WE ANY CLOSER TO UNDERSTANDING THE STUFF OF WHICH SOCIAL-REALITY IS MADE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MITROFF, II, UNIV SO CALIF,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CTR CRISIS MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR ABEGGLEN JC, 1985, KAISHA JAPANESE CORP BURRELL G, 1979, SOCIOLOGICAL PARADIG CAMERON KS, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P539 DAVIS MS, 1971, PHILOS SOC SCI, V1, P309 JERVIS R, 1984, ILLOGIC AM NUCLEAR S KAPLAN F, 1983, WIZARDS ARMAGEDDON KISSINGER HA, 1969, NUCLEAR WEAPONS FORE MASON RO, 1981, CHALLENGING STRATEGI MITROFF I, 1978, METHODOLOGICAL APPRO MITROFF II, 1979, ACAD MANAGE REV, V4, P1 MITROFF II, 1981, CREATING DIALECTICAL MITROFF II, 1982, ACAD MANAGE REV, V7, P361 MITROFF II, 1983, 1980 CENSUS POLICYMA MITROFF II, 1984, CORPORATE TRAGEDIES MITROFF II, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P51 MITROFF II, 1987, GLOBAL SOLUTION PIORE MJ, 1984, 2ND IND DIVIDE REICH RB, 1985, ATLANTIC MONTHLY MAY, P68 SLAATTE HA, 1968, PERTINENCE PARADOX THUROW LC, 1985, ZERO-SUM SOC VANHEIJENOORT J, 1967, FREGE GODEL 2 FUNDAM NR 21 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 69 EP 78 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600011 ER PT J AU MICHAEL, DN TI FORECASTING AND PLANNING IN AN INCOHERENT CONTEXT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MICHAEL, DN, UNIV MICHIGAN,PLANNING & PUBL POLICY,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. CR 1980, PUBLIC INTEREST BATESON G, 1972, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND BERGER PL, 1970, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION CHURCHMAN CW, 1968, CHALLENGE REASON COCHRAN N, 1980, POLICY SCI, V12, P113 CROWE B, 1969, SCIENCE, V166, P1103 DROR Y, 1986, POLICY MAKING ADVERS EAGLETON T, 1983, LITERARY THEORY GERGEN K, 1985, AM PSYCHOL, V40, P275 GERGEN KJ, 1985, AM PSYCHOL, V40, P266 KONNER M, 1982, TANGLED WING LAKOFF G, 1980, METAPHORS WE LIVE BY LAKOFF G, 1987, WOMEN FIRE DANGEROUS LINSTONE HA, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P275 MACINTYRE A, 1984, AFTER VIRTUE MICHAEL D, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V31, P107 MICHAEL D, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V31, P116 MICHAEL D, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V31, P198 MICHAEL D, 1973, LEARNING PLAN PLANNI MICHAEL D, 1983, RETHINKING LIBERALIS MICHAEL D, 1987, WHAT I HAVE LEARNED MICHAEL DN, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P149 MICHAEL DN, 1985, FUTURES, V17, P94 MILLER A, 1981, PRISONERS CHILDHOOD NEUMANN E, 1973, DEPTH PSYCHOL NEW ET POLANYI M, 1966, TACIT DIMENSION POSTMAN N, 1985, AMUSING OURSELVES DE RIEDL R, 1984, INVENTED REALITY RITTEL HWJ, 1973, POLICY SCI, V4, P155 ROSENBAUM R, 1987, MANHATTAN PASSIONS SCHUMAN H, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P957 UNGER RM, 1975, KNOWLEDGE POLITICS VANGLASERSFELD E, 1984, INVENTED REALITY VICKERS G, 1965, ART JUDGMENT NR 34 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 79 EP 87 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600012 ER PT J AU SHERIDAN, TB TI DESIGNING COMPLEX TECHNOLOGY - UNDERSTANDING IT AS OF, BY, AND FOR PEOPLE - SOME DILEMMAS AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT THEM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHERIDAN, TB, MIT,DEPT MECH ENGN,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. CR CHARNY L, THESIS MIT MAN MACHI KEENEY RL, 1976, DECISIONS MULTIPLE O LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MARCH JG, 1958, ORGANIZATIONS MORAY N, 1986, HDB PERCEPTION HUMAN ROUSE WB, 1983, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V13, P539 ROUSE WG, 1987, SYSTEM DESIGN SALVENDY G, 1987, HDB HUMAN FACTORS SHERIDAN TB, 1975, P IEEE, V63, P463 SHERIDAN TB, 1980, TECHNOLOGY REV OCT, P61 SHERIDAN TB, 1987, HDB HUMAN FACTORS SHERIDAN TB, 1987, P IFAC C SUPPLEMENTA TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1123 WEINER N, 1964, GOD GOLEM INCORPORAT WEIZENBAUM J, 1976, COMPUTER POWER HUMAN NR 15 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 89 EP 97 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600013 ER PT J AU DROR, Y TI POLICY REASONING FOR FORECASTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP DROR, Y, HEBREW UNIV JERUSALEM,DEPT POLIT SCI,MT SCOPUS,IL-91905 JERUSALEM,ISRAEL. CR DROR Y, 1988, RATIONALITY COGNITIO, P117 DROR Y, 1989, MEMORANDUM ISRAELI P MACLEOD R, 1988, GOVT EXPERTISE SPECI NEUSTADT RE, 1986, THINKING TIME USES H, CH14 NR 4 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 99 EP 104 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600014 ER PT J AU TUROFF, M TI THE ANATOMY OF A COMPUTER APPLICATION INNOVATION - COMPUTER MEDIATED COMMUNICATIONS (CMC) SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP TUROFF, M, NEW JERSEY INST TECHNOL,DEPT COMP & INFORMAT SCI,NEWARK,NJ 07102. CR HILTZ SR, 1978, NETWORK NATION HILTZ SR, 1981, COMMUNICATIONS ACM, V24 HILTZ SR, 1982, ACMSIGSOC B, V13 HILTZ SR, 1984, LINE COMMUNITIES CAS HILTZ SR, 1985, COMMUNICATIONS ACM HILTZ SR, 1986, HUMAN COMMUNICATION, V13 HILTZ SR, 1986, J COMMUNICATION HILTZ SR, 1988, COMMUNICATIONS ACM, V31 HILTZ SR, 1988, SEP P C COMP SUPP CO KERR EB, 1982, COMPUTER MEDIATED CO LENZ PJ, 1982, COMPUTER MEDIATED CO LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI RENNER R, 1972, DEC P INT S COMP INF STRASSMAN PA, 1985, INFORMATION PAYOFF T TUROFF M, 1971, AFIPS C P, V39 TUROFF M, 1972, 1ST P INT C COMP COM TUROFF M, 1972, JTFSC, V3 TUROFF M, 1982, EMERGING OFFICE SYST TUROFF M, 1982, IEEE T COMMUNICA CON, V30 TUROFF M, 1985, JTFSC, V27 TUROFF M, 1988, TELMATICS INFROMATIC, V5 TUROFF M, 1989, 22ND P ANN HAW INT C, V3 WILCOX R, 1972, 1ST INT C COMP COMM NR 23 TC 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 107 EP 122 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600016 ER PT J AU HOUSE, PW SHULL, RD TI MODERNIZING PUBLIC-SECTOR MANAGEMENT - FULFILLING PAST PROMISES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HOUSE, PW, NATL SCI FDN,DIV POLICY RES & ANAL,WASHINGTON,DC 20550. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 123 EP 136 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600017 ER PT J AU ASCHER, W TI LIMITS OF EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR POLITICAL-ECONOMIC FORECASTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 DUKE UNIV,CTR INT DEV RES,DURHAM,NC 27706. RP ASCHER, W, DUKE UNIV,INST POLICY SCI & PUBL AFFAIRS,4875 DUKE STN,DURHAM,NC 27706. CR ASCHER W, 1983, STRATEGIC PLANNING F COPLIN W, 1976, EVERYMANS PRINCE DEMESQUITA B, 1985, FORECASTING POLITICA DREYFUS H, 1986, MIND MACHINE FORRESTER JW, 1971, WORLD DYNAMICS HENSCHEL R, 1973, GEN SYST, V18, P119 JOHNSON PE, 1983, J MED PHILOS, V8, P75 KAHNEMAN D, 1982, JUDGMENT UNCERTAINTY LENAT DB, 1983, BUILDING EXPERT SYST LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MERRIAM C, 1931, NEW ASPECTS POLITICS SU V, 1975, P AM EC ASS, V68, P306 SU V, 1978, EXPLORATIONS EC RES, V2, P588 WATERMAN DA, 1986, GUIDE EXPERT SYSTEMS NR 15 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 137 EP 151 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600018 ER PT J AU LINSTONE, HA TI MEDIACRACY, MEDIOCRACY, OR NEW DEMOCRACY - WHERE ARE THE INFORMATION AGE JEFFERSONS AND MADISONS WHEN WE NEED THEM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP LINSTONE, HA, PORTLAND STATE UNIV,SYST SCI PHD PROGRAM,POB 751,PORTLAND,OR 97207. CR 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P119 1988, WALL STREET J 1027, A24 1989, TIME 0109, P21 ASCHER W, 1978, FORECASTING APPRAISA BLOOM A, 1987, CLOSING AM MIND CAMPBELL J, 1988, POWER MYTH, P9 GORDON TJ, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V34, P1 HOUSTON J, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P241 KENNEDY P, 1989, RISE FALL GREAT POWE, R16 LINSTONE HA, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P335 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MCLUHAN M, 1967, MEDIUM IS MESSAGE IN, P8 MICHAEL DN, 1973, LEARNING PLAN PLANNI MICHAEL DN, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P347 MILLER AS, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P95 MITROFF II, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P51 MITROFF II, 1989, UNREALITY IND DELIBE PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES OCT, P357 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV REGAN DT, 1988, RECORD ROGERS EM, 1986, COMMUNICATION TECHNO SIMON JC, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V13, P1 VONSYDOW B, CITED INDIRECTLY NR 23 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 153 EP 169 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600019 ER PT J AU WENK, E TI THE POLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY AND THE TECHNOLOGY OF POLITICS - ISSUES FOR THE UNITED-STATES CONGRESS 3RD-CENTURY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WASHINGTON,ENGN & PUBL AFFAIRS,SEATTLE,WA 98195. CR WENK E, 1986, TRADEOFFS NR 1 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 171 EP 183 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600020 ER PT J AU MAHAJAN, V WIND, J TI MARKET DISCONTINUITIES AND STRATEGIC-PLANNING - A RESEARCH AGENDA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 185 EP 199 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600022 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN TI TECHNOLOGICAL LEAPFROGGING - IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,ASIAN & PACIFIC CTR TRANSFER TECHNOL,BANGALORE,INDIA. CR LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1987, APCTT CSTP WORKSHOP SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOLOGY POLICIES SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOLOGY POLICY FO SHARIF MN, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32 SHARIF MN, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P195 SHARIF MN, 1988, SCI PUBL POLICY, V15, P217 NR 8 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 201 EP 208 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600023 ER PT J AU CHOI, HS TI TRANSITION FROM IMITATION TO CREATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CHOI, HS, RIST,CPO BOX 3269,SEOUL,SOUTH KOREA. CR *S K MIN SCI TECHN, 1972, 72 9 POL DAT, CH3 *UN INT DEV ORG, 1977, NAT APPR ACQ TECHN CHOI HS, POLICY STRATEGY SCI, V3, CH1 CHOI HS, 1984, IND RES LESS DEV COU, CH1 RAMSEY NF, NEW PHYSICS, V18 NR 5 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 209 EP 215 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600024 ER PT J AU ROSSINI, FA TI TRANSITIONS - THE SYNERGISTIC IMPACTS OF MAJOR TECHNOLOGIES IN THE 22ND CENTURY AND BEYOND SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 GEORGIA INST TECHNOL,OFF INTERDISCIPLINARY PROGRAMS,ATLANTA,GA 30332. RP ROSSINI, FA, GEORGIA INST TECHNOL,TECHNOL & SCI POLICY PROGRAM,CENTENNIAL RES BLDG,400 10TH ST NW,ATLANTA,GA 30332. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1989 VL 36 IS 1-2 BP 217 EP 222 PG 6 SC Business; Planning & Development GA AB006 UT ISI:A1989AB00600026 ER PT J AU MCCURDY, TH TI SOME POTENTIAL JOB DISPLACEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPUTER-BASED AUTOMATION IN CANADA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MCCURDY, TH, QUEENS UNIV,DEPT ECON,KINGSTON K7L 3N6,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR 1985, STATISTICAL REPORT C *BUND MIN WISS FOR, 1981, MIKR *EV RES CORP, 1985, ANN REV SURV TOP COM *EV RES CORP, 1985, RES STUD, V65 *ONT MIN IND TRAD, 1985, MARK FLEX AUT EQ ONT *ONT TASK FORC EMP, 1985, REP *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1982, INF COMP COMM POL SE, V7 *POL STUD I, 1985, 635 REP *US DEP COMM, 1985, BUR EC AN WORK PAP, V4 *US OFF TECH ASS, 1984, COMP MAN AUT EMPL ED *US OFF TECH ASS, 1985, AUT AM OFF DEBOER PMC, 1985, Z NATIONALOKONOMIE, V45, P331 DEMELTO DP, 1980, 176 EC COUNC CAN DIS DENNY M, 1983, J HUMAN RESOURCE SPR DUNGAN P, 1983, POLICY STUDIES SERIE, V2 DUNGAN P, 1985, J POLICY MODEL, V7, P595 GLOBERMAN S, 1984, ADOPTION COMPUTER TE HOWELL DR, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P297 HUNT HA, 1983, HUMAN RESOURCE IMPLI HUNT HA, 1984, CRITIQUE IMPACT AUTO LEONTIEF W, 1986, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA MCCURDY TH, 1987, 340 EC COUNC CAN DIS MCCURDY TH, 1987, J POLICY MODEL, V9, P269 NEARY JP, 1981, OXFORD EC PAPERS JUN PILORUSSO F, 1982, 23 ONT MIN LAB RES B ROESSNER JD, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P203 RUMBERGER RW, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P399 SCHMORANZ I, 1984, PROMETHEUS, V2, P167 SIEDULE T, 1983, 229 EC COUNC CAN DIS WERNEKE D, 1983, MICROELECTRONICS OFF WHITLEY JD, 1982, FUTURE DEC NR 31 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1989 VL 35 IS 4 BP 299 EP 317 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA U7521 UT ISI:A1989U752100001 ER PT J AU BHARGAVA, SC TI GENERALIZED LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS AND THE MECHANISM OF TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP BHARGAVA, SC, UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DELHI 110007,INDIA. CR ALLEN PM, 1976, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V73, P665 BATTEN D, 1982, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V12, P449 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BRETSCHNEIDER SI, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P129 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GOODWIN RM, 1967, SOCIALISM CAPITALISM HERMANN R, 1972, P NATIONAL ACADEMY S, V69, P3019 KARMESHU BSC, 1985, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V15, P137 LENZ RC, 1962, ASDTR62414 USAF AER LINSTONE HA, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA LOTKA AJ, 1925, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MAHAJAN V, 1977, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V1, P12 MAHAJAN V, 1979, J MARKETING, V43, P55 MAKRIDAKIS S, 1983, FORECASTING METHODS MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARCHETTI C, 1979, CHEM ECON ENG REV, V11, P7 MARCHETTI C, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P373 NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR PESCHEL M, 1986, PREY PREDATOR MODEL SAMUELSON PA, 1971, P NATIONAL ACADEMY S, V68, P980 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P89 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 VOLTERRA V, 1982, APPLICABLE MATH NONP NR 25 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1989 VL 35 IS 4 BP 319 EP 326 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA U7521 UT ISI:A1989U752100002 ER PT J AU MADU, CN JACOB, R TI STRATEGIC-PLANNING IN TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER - A DIALECTICAL APPROACH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MADU, CN, PACE UNIV,LUBIN GRAD SCH BUSINESS,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,1 PACE PLAZA,NEW YORK,NY 10038. CR 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P5 BARANSON J, 1987, MULTINATIONAL BUSINE, V2, P18 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32 CAPSTICK R, 1978, INT MANAG, V33, P45 CHANIN MN, 1985, ACAD MANAGE REV, V10, P663 CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS CIESLIK J, 1985, J WORLD TRADE LAW, V18, P415 COSIER RA, 1977, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V19, P378 COUGHLIN CC, 1983, J WORLD TRADE, V17, P12 CRAWFORD MH, 1987, INFORM AGE, V9, P10 CRAWFORD MH, 1987, INFORM AGE, V9, P67 DAHLMAN CJ, 1981, ANN AM ACADEMY POLIT, V458 EMSHOFF JR, 1978, BUS HORIZONS, V21, P49 ERDILEK A, 1984, MANAGE DECIS, V22, P45 GALTUNG J, 1978, ALTERNATIVES, V4, P277 GEE S, 1981, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER HELLER PB, 1985, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER ITO S, 1986, DEV ECON, V24, P334 KOMODA F, 1986, DEV ECON, V24, P15 KRUEGER AO, 1982, EC IMPACT, V40, P26 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LITTERER JA, 1966, ACAD MANAGE J, V9, P178 MADU CN, UNPUB LONG RANGE PLA MADU CN, 1988, ENG MANAGEMENT INT, V5, P53 MASON RO, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, B403 MILLMAN AF, 1983, EUR J MARKETING, V17, P26 MITROFF II, 1977, MANAGE SCI, V24, P44 MITROFF II, 1979, ACAD MANAGE REV, V4, P1 MYTELKA LK, 1979, REGIONAL DEV GLOBAL PIERSON RM, 1978, RES MANAGE, V21, P19 POZNANSKI KZ, 1984, WORLD POLIT, V37, P135 PRAHALAD CK, 1987, MULTINATIONAL MISSIO RAINES H, 1986, NY TIMES 1022, D1 RAINES H, 1986, NY TIMES 1022, D6 RIDING A, 1988, NY TIMES 0410, E2 RODRIGUES CA, 1985, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS, V20, P21 ROSTOW WW, 1967, STAGES EC GROWTH SACHDEV JC, 1979, MANAGE INT REV, V19, P17 SCHWENK CR, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P263 SHAPIRO HJ, 1987, IDEA PSYCHOL CONCEPT SINGH ZN, 1983, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER VANDEVLIERT E, 1985, J APPL BEHAV SCI, V21, P19 VANGIGCH JP, 1978, APPLIED GENERAL SYST WALLENDER HW, 1979, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER NR 44 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1989 VL 35 IS 4 BP 327 EP 338 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA U7521 UT ISI:A1989U752100003 ER PT J AU CHIANG, JT TI TECHNOLOGY AND ALLIANCE STRATEGIES FOR FOLLOWER COUNTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CHIANG, JT, MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. CR *JAPAN LONG TERM C, 1983, JAP HIGH TECHN IND CHIANG JT, 1980, IND TECHNOLOGY DEV T, P18 CHIANG JT, 1984, FORMATION JAPANS INT, P7 CHIANG JT, 1987, UNPUB DETERMINANTS M, P46 HORWITCH M, 1984, TECHNOL SOC, V6, P161 MOOR WL, 1982, READINGS MANAGEMENT OHMAE K, 1984, TRIAD POWER COMING S PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG ROBERTS EB, 1985, SLOAN MANAGEMENT SPR, P3 SAITO M, 1980, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, CH35 SAITO M, 1980, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, CH38 SAKAKIBARA K, MIT149083 SLOAN SCH VERNON R, 1978, TECHNOL REV, V80, P41 VERNON R, 1979, OXFORD B ECON STAT, V41, P255 NR 14 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1989 VL 35 IS 4 BP 339 EP 349 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA U7521 UT ISI:A1989U752100004 ER PT J AU DELCAMPO, EM TI TECHNOLOGY AND THE WORLD-ECONOMY - THE CASE OF THE AMERICAN HEMISPHERE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR *WORLD BANK, 1986, WORLD DEV REP BHALLA AS, 1986, SCI TECHNOLOGY SERIE BROWN LR, 1986, STATE WORLD 1986 WOR DELCAMPO FM, 1983, PERSPECTIVAS LIMITES GONZALEZ N, 1986, 21ST SESS EC COMM LA MARI M, 1986, TECHNOLOGY GAP SUPPO NORMAN C, 1981, GOD LIMPS SAGASTI FR, 1985, TIEMPOS DIFICILES CI SCHWARTZ HH, 1983, BOTTLENECKS LATIN AM WAISSBLUTH M, 1983, SEP LAT AM M TECHN I NR 10 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1989 VL 35 IS 4 BP 351 EP 364 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA U7521 UT ISI:A1989U752100005 ER PT J AU HUBER, J TI SOCIAL-MOVEMENTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HUBER, J, FREE UNIV BERLIN,FACHBEREICH 15,INNESTR 21,D-1000 BERLIN 33,FED REP GER. CR BRAND KW, 1986, AUFBRUCH EINE AUDERE, P283 BREINES P, 1977, STUD ROMANTICISM, V16, P473 FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC GOULDNER AW, 1975, SOCIOLOGY, P321 HUBER J, 1980, ALTERNATIVEN ALTERNA HUBER J, 1984, J PUBLIC INT AFFAIRS, V5, P122 JENKINS JC, 1983, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V9, P527 KLEINKNECHT A, 1987, INNOVATION PATTERNS KLINGEMANN HD, 1982, QUAL QUANT, V16, P1 MARCUZZI G, 1976, ELEMENTI ECOLOGIA UM NAMENWIRTH JZ, 1973, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V3, P649 SARGENT F, 1974, HUMAN ECOLOGY SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES SCHWENDTER R, 1982, GESCH ZUKUNFT SIEFERIE RP, 1984, FORTSCHRITTSFEINDE O STAPLEDON G, 1964, HUMAN ECOLOGY TOURAINE A, 1969, SOC POST IND WEBER RP, 1981, SOC FORCES, V59, P1130 NR 18 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1989 VL 35 IS 4 BP 365 EP 374 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA U7521 UT ISI:A1989U752100006 ER PT J AU ISHITANI, H KAYA, Y TI ROBOTIZATION IN JAPANESE MANUFACTURING-INDUSTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV TOKYO,DEPT ENGN,TOKYO 113,JAPAN. UNIV TOKYO,ADV SCI & TECHNOL RES CTR,TOKYO 113,JAPAN. CR *JAPAN MIN INT TRA, 1985, NEW SIT TECHN IMPR P NR 1 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 97 EP 131 PG 35 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700002 ER PT J AU ARAI, T TI FORECAST OF ASSEMBLY AUTOMATION IN THE AUTOMOBILE-INDUSTRY - TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS IN ROBOTICS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ARAI, T, UNIV TOKYO,FAC ENGN,DEPT PRECIS MACHINERY ENGN,7-3-1 HONGO,BUNKYO KU,TOKYO 113,JAPAN. CR *JAPAN IND ROB ASS, 1984, FOR TECHN DEM ROB ARAI T, 1985, 6TH P ICAA BIRM, P67 MIYAKAWA S, 1986, INT C PRODUCT DESIGN NR 3 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 133 EP 148 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700003 ER PT J AU MORI, S TI MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ROBOTIZATION IN JAPAN SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MORI, S, SCI UNIV TOKYO,DEPT IND ADM,YAMASAKI 2641,NODA,CHIBA 278,JAPAN. CR *JAPAN EC PLANN AG, 1970 1985 NAT ACC *JAPAN IND ROB ASS, 1984, RES REP EC EFF AN IN *JAPAN IND ROB ASS, 1985, LONG RANG FOR DEM IN *JAPAN MIN INT TRA, YB MIN INT TRAD IND *JAPAN MIN INT TRA, 1985, REC TRENDS PROD IMPR *MIN LAB, YB LAB STAT *UN EC COMM EUR, 1985, DIFF EL TECHN CAP GO ALEN RGD, 1967, MACROECONOMIC THEORY AYRES RU, 1983, ROBOTICS APPLICATION AYRES RU, 1987, IIASA WP8722 WORK PA AYRES RU, 1987, IIASA WP8739 WORK PA BESSANT J, 1986, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V14, P465 CHRISTENSEN LR, 1969, REV INCOME WEALTH, V15, P293 FLEISCHER GA, 1982, 1982 I IND ENG ANN I, P130 JAIKUMAR R, 1984, 1784078 HARV BUS SCH JOHNSTON J, 1963, EC METHODS JORGENSON DW, 1967, REV ECON STUD, V34, P249 KAYA Y, 1986, IIASA CP868 COLL PAP LEONTIEF W, 1985, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA MILLER SM, 1983, THESIS PITTSBURGH NOGUCHI Y, 1985, CONT EC, V61, P48 NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 149 EP 165 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700004 ER PT J AU SAITO, M NAKAMURA, S TI IMPACTS OF ROBOTIZATION ON THE JAPANESE ECONOMY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 WASEDA UNIV,SCH POLIT SCI & ECON,TOKYO 160,JAPAN. RP SAITO, M, KOBE UNIV,FAC ECON,KOBE 657,JAPAN. CR *JAPAN IND ROB ASS, 1985, REP MAN LONG TERM FO DIEWERT WE, 1976, J ECONOMETRICS, V4, P115 HICKS JR, 1963, THEORY WAGES MORI S, 1987, IIASA WP8740 WORK PA SAITO M, EC STUDIES ENERGY SAITO M, 1985, IIASA WP8515 WORK PA SATO K, 1967, REV ECON STUD, V34, P201 NR 7 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 167 EP 177 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700005 ER PT J AU TORII, Y TI ROBOTIZATION IN KOREA - TREND AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INDUSTRIAL-DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP TORII, Y, KEIO UNIV,DEPT ECON,2-15-45 MITA,MINATO KU,TOKYO 108,JAPAN. CR 1985, ROBOT JAN, P24 1985, ROBOT JAN, P26 1985, ROBOT JAN, P29 1985, ROBOT JAN, P32 1987, ROBOT FEB, P101 1988, ROBOT NEWS, V2, P224 *FED KOR IND, 1986, KOR EC YB *JAPAN EC PLANN AG, 1986, ANN REP NAT ACC *MIN TRAD IND, 1986, REP DEM IND TECHN, V58 *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1983, IND ROB THEIR ROL MA AYERS R, 1983, ROBOTICS APPLICATION AYERS, 1983, SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT CHENERY HB, 1979, STRUCTURAL CHANGE DE FLAMM K, 1986, INT DIFFERENCES IND LEONTIEF W, 1983, IMPACTS AUTOMATION E LEONTIEF W, 1986, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA SCOTT PB, 1984, ROBOTICS REVOLUTION TORII Y, 1979, OCT SEOUL S CLUB ROM TORII Y, 1985, JAN P S HUM RES DEV TORII Y, 1987, IMPACTS ROBOTIZATION NR 20 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 179 EP 190 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700006 ER PT J AU TANI, A TI INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOT PENETRATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MITSUBISHI RES INST INC,TOKYO,JAPAN. CR 1985, ASS FRANCAISE ROBOTI 1985, BELGIUM ROBOT ASS 1985, REV ROBOTICA *BRIT ROB ASS, 1986, ROB FACTS 1985 *INT LAB OFF, 1986, YEAR BOOK LAB STAT *ITALY SOC IND ROB, 1985, ROB IT *JAPAN IND ROB ASS, 1985, SURV REP ROB PROD CO *JAPAN IND ROB ASS, 1986, REP RES STUD INT COO *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1986, HIST STAT 1960 1984 *US BUR CENS, 1986, MA35X851 *US DEP COMM, 1987, US IND OUTL 1987 MET EDQUIST C, 1986, FEB SEM IND ROB 86 I MORI S, 1987, WP8740 IIASA WORK PA TANI A, 1987, WP8795 IIASA WORK PA YONEMOTO K, 1987, ROBOTIZATION JAPAN S NR 15 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 191 EP 210 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700007 ER PT J AU KINOSHITA, S YAMADA, M TI THE IMPACTS OF ROBOTIZATION ON MACRO AND SECTORAL ECONOMIES WITHIN A WORLD ECONOMETRIC-MODEL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MIE UNIV,FAC HUMANITIES & SOCIAL SCI,TSU,MIE 514,JAPAN. RP KINOSHITA, S, NAGOYA UNIV,FAC ECON,FURO CHO,CHIKUSA KU,NAGOYA,AICHI 464,JAPAN. CR *JAPAN IND ROB ASS, 1985, REP MAN LONG TERM FO KINOSHITA S, 1982, DEV APPLICATION WORL KINOSHITA S, 1983, PROJECT LINK PROJECT KINOSHITA S, 1987, IIASA CIM WORKSHOP LEONTIEF W, 1986, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA MORIGUCHI C, 1973, AM EC REV NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 211 EP 230 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700008 ER PT J AU RANTA, J TI THE IMPACT OF ELECTRONICS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON THE FUTURE-TRENDS AND APPLICATIONS OF CIM TECHNOLOGIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 TECH RES CTR FINLAND,PROD AUTOMAT,HELSINKI,FINLAND. CR 1984, COMPETITIVE ASSESSME 1987, AUTOMATION FORUM MAR 1987, SEMICONDUCTOR INT, V10, P15 *COMM EUR COMM, 1985, COM 85112 FIN, P12 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1984, OTACIT235 BATCHMAN TE, 1987, COMPUTER, V20, P7 BELL CG, 1986, IEEE SPECTRUM, V23, P71 BOEHM BW, 1987, COMPUTER, V20, P43 BOND J, 1986, COMPUTER DESIGN 1015, P21 BRODNER P, 1985, P INT C FACT FUTURE BULLINGER HJ, 1985, P INT C FACTORY FUTU, R39 BURSKY D, 1983, ELECTRONIC DESI 0609, P87 BURSKY D, 1988, ELECTRONIC DESI 0107, P66 CHOW S, 1987, IEEE SPECTRUM, V24, P39 DARIO P, 1985, IEEE SPECTRUM, V22, P46 FARBER G, 1986, AUTOMATISIERUNGSTECH, V28, P411 FELDMANN K, 1985, AUTOMATISIERUNGSTECH, V27, P358 FEY CF, 1987, P IEEE, V75, P829 FITZGERALD K, 1987, IEEE SPECTRUM, V24, P28 FIXSTERZ J, 1986, VDI Z, V128, P369 FRENSLEY WR, 1987, SCI AM, V257, P69 GIALLORENZI TG, 1986, IEEE SPECTRUM, V23, P44 GOLDHAR JD, 1983, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P141 GOLDHAR JD, 1985, INTERFACES, V15, P94 GUPTA A, 1984, P IEEE, V72, P243 GUTERL F, 1984, IEEE SPECTRUM, V21, P28 HECHT H, 1986, IEEE T SOFTWARE ENG, V12, P51 HORN EJ, 1985, EUROPE NEW TECHNOLOG IMMONEN P, 1983, SAHKO, V56, P10 JAIKUMAR R, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P69 JURGEN RK, 1988, IEEE SPECTRUM, V25, P26 KATES G, 1987, COMPUTER DESIGN 0101, P30 KENT EW, 1986, IEEE SPECTRUM, V23, P37 KNASEL TM, 1987, ROBOTICS, V3, P281 KUSIAK A, 1988, ARTIFICAL INTELLIGEN MARTIN K, 1987, COMPUTER DESIGN 0101, P21 MARTIN T, 1987, 10TH IFAC WORLD C MU, V5, P291 MEREDITH JR, 1987, J MANUF SYST, V6, P1 MEREDITH JR, 1987, J MANUF SYST, V6, P75 MILUTINOVIC V, 1986, COMPUTER, V19, P10 MITRA SK, 1987, P IEEE, V75, P1139 MORI S, 1987, IIASA WP8740 WORK PA NARITA S, 1987, 10TH IFAC WORLD C MU, V1, P59 NELSON R, 1985, COMPUTER DESIGN 1015, P82 PELED A, 1987, SCI AM, V257, P35 PFEIFER T, 1985, AUTOMATISIERUNGSTECH, V27, P364 PICAKR KA, 1986, P IEEE, V74, P1603 RANTA J, 1985, BASIC TRANDS ELECTRO RANTA J, 1987, JUL IIASA WORKSH COM RANTA J, 1988, 5TH P INT WORK SEM P RANTA J, 1988, COMPUTERS IND, V10 RANTA J, 1988, IIASA WP88 WORK PAP RAUCH K, 1987, IEEE SPECTRUM, V24, P25 RIEZENMAN M, 1984, ELECTRONIC DESI 0101 SAVOLAINEN T, 1987, THESIS HELSINKI U TE SCHATZBERG DR, 1986, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V16, P890 SHAH, 1987, VDIZ, V129, P13 SHEININ RL, 1987, IIASA WP8717 WORK PA TALAYSUM AT, 1987, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V34, P85 TANI A, 1987, IIASA WP87108 WORK P TANI A, 1987, IIASA WP87125 WORK P TANI A, 1987, IIASA WP8755 WORK PA TCHIJOV I, 1988, 5TH INT WORK SEM PRO TCHIJOV I, 1988, IIASA WP8829 WORK PA THOMPSON B, 1987, COMPUTER DESIGN 0115, P73 TORRERO EA, 1983, IEEE SPECTRUM, V20, P34 WEISBIN CR, 1987, IEEE EXPERT, V2, P16 WILEY P, 1987, IEEE SPECTRUM, V24, P46 WRIGHT PK, 1988, MANUFACTURING INTELL NR 69 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 231 EP 260 PG 30 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700009 ER PT J AU TCHIJOV, I TI CIM INTRODUCTION - SOME SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP TCHIJOV, I, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ECON,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR 1985, JIRA REPORT 1985, REV SYNDICALE SUISSE 1987, AM MACHINIST DEC 1987, FMS MAGAZINE 1987, ILO3 REP 1987, ROBOTICS TODAY FEB 1987, US IND OUTLOOK 1988, FMS MAGAZINE *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1985, SOFTW EM IND *UK EC COMM EUR IN, 1987, S MAN TRAIN PROGR ME *UNESCO, 1986, INF ED 1ST SURV STAT *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1984, WORK PAP *YAND EC I, 1987, REP ALFTHAN T, 1985, ILO10 DISC PAP AYRES R, IIASA WP8648 BARANSON J, 1987, JUN IIASA WORKSH EBEL K, 1987, SOCIAL LABOUR EFFECT FIXSTERZ J, 1987, FAST N135 OCC PAP HAYWOOD B, 1987, FAST N150 OCC PAP KIDD J, 1981, MS81366 TECHN PAP LEONTIEF W, 1986, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA MILLER S, 1983, THESIS CARNEGIE MELL NORTHCOTT J, 1985, MICROELECTRONICS IND NORTHCOTT J, 1986, MICROELECTRONICS IND ROBERTS K, 1986, EMPLOYMENT GAZET JUL SEPPALA P, 1988, INFORMATION TECHNOLO, V3, CH2 SHEININ R, IIASA WP8717 TANI A, IIASA WP87125 TCHIJOV I, IIASA WP8777 TOIKKA K, 1986, INFORMATION TECHNOLO WOLF G, 1987, 8TH EFMD C NR 31 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 261 EP 275 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700010 ER PT J AU TCHIJOV, I SHEININ, R TI FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS (FMS) - CURRENT DIFFUSION AND MAIN ADVANTAGES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MOSCOW SYST STUDIES INST,MOSCOW,USSR. RP TCHIJOV, I, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ECON,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR PROBLEMY RAZVITIA GY 1982, KFKPFT, V42 1984, BUSINESS ASSESSMENT 1984, COMPUTERIZED MANUFAC 1985, NIKKEI MECHANICAL SP 1986, METALWORKING ENG MAR 1986, RECENT TREND FLEXIBL 1986, TOOLING PRODUCTION 1986, VDIZ, V128 1987, AM MACHINIST 1987, AXES ROBOTIQUE MAR 1987, ECONOMIST 0330 1987, FAST135 OCC PAP 1987, FMS MAGAZINE 1987, ROBOT APR 1987, US IND OUTLOOK 1987, VDIZ, V129 1988, AM MACHINIST 1988, FMS MAGAZINE 1988, UNPUB DATA FLEXIBLE *ING ENG, 1982, FMS REP *US DEP COMM, 1985, COMP ASS US FLEX MAN AYRES R, 1983, ROUGH DRAFT INVENTOR BESSANT J, 1985, INTRO FLEXIBLE MANUF BESSANT J, 1986, EXPERIENCES FMS UK DARROW W, 1986, SURVEY FLEXIBLE MANU EDQUIST C, 1985, DIFFUSION ELECTRONIC HAYWOOD B, UNPUB FMS UK HAYWOOD B, 1987, 3 BRIGHT POL OCC PAP JAIKUMAR R, 1984, FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURI JAIKUMAR R, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV MARGIRIER G, 1986, NUOVI SISTEMI PRODUZ RANTA J, UNPUB FMS FINLAND SHEININ R, IIASA WP8717 WARNDORF P, 1986, INT J TECHNOLOGY MAN, V1 WILLENBERG J, 1987, THESIS U TWENTE NR 36 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 2-3 BP 277 EP 293 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T9717 UT ISI:A1989T971700011 ER PT J AU SEIFERT, LC ZEISLER, AD TI A NATIONAL MANUFACTURING POLICY - AN INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE ON PROMOTING SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT IN UNITED-STATES GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 AT&T BELL LABS,MFG SYST,BERKELEY HTS,NJ 07922. RP SEIFERT, LC, AT&T BELL LABS,ENGN MFG & PROD PLANNING,ROOM 4ED114,1 OAK WAY,BERKELEY HTS,NJ 07922. CR CYERT RM, 1987, TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMEN, P35 MANSFIELD E, UNPUB IND R D JAPAN MANSFIELD E, 1987, DEC JOINT COMM C NASAR S, 1988, FORTUNE 0104, P49 NR 4 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 1 BP 1 EP 11 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T2546 UT ISI:A1989T254600001 ER PT J AU GRAVES, SB TI LONG RUN PATTERNS OF CORPORATE R-AND-D EXPENDITURE - A DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PERIOD 1965 TO 1984 SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP GRAVES, SB, BOSTON COLL,SCH MANAGEMENT,DEPT OPERAT & STRATEG MANAGEMENT,CHESTNUT HILL,MA 02167. CR 1976, BUSINESS WEEK 0628, P62 *NAT SCI F, 1981, 5 YEAR OUTL SCI TECH *NAT SCI F, 1984, NSF84311 *NAT SCI F, 1985, SCI IND US BLACKMAN AW, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P301 DAVIS LA, 1982, DTR0282 US DEP COMM DENISON EF, 1974, ACCOUNTING US EC GRO HAYES RH, 1980, HARVARD BUS REV, V58, P67 KENDRICK JW, 1977, UNDERSTANDING PRODUC MANSFIELD E, 1987, MANAGE SCI, V33, P124 SCHERER FM, 1980, IND MARKET STRUCTURE SCHULMAN R, 1985, BUSINESS WEEK 0708, P86 SOLOW RM, 1957, REV ECON STAT, V39, P312 NR 13 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 1 BP 13 EP 27 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T2546 UT ISI:A1989T254600002 ER PT J AU HIRAOKA, LS TI JAPANESE AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURING IN AN AMERICAN SETTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HIRAOKA, LS, KEAN COLL NEW JERSEY,DEPT MANAGEMENT SCI,UNION,NJ 07083. CR 1987, 1987 MARKET DATA BOO, P12 1987, NY TIMES 0930 1988, BUSINESS WEEK 0425, P90 1988, FORTUNE 0215, V117, P32 1988, NEWSWEEK 0222, P42 *ADV GRP EC STRUCT, 1986, MAEK REP *HOND AM MAN INC, HOND WAY INN APPR MA *MITS RES I, 1987, REL JAP AUT AUT PART, P3 *US DEPT STAT, 1984, FOR REL US 1952 1954, V12, P907 ANDERSON M, 1982, TECHNOL REV, V85, P57 BRODY M, 1984, FORTUNE, V110, P54 CUSUMANO MA, 1985, JAPANESE AUTOMOBILE FISHER AB, 1986, FORTUNE 1110, V114, P56 HALBERSTAM D, 1986, RECKONING HAMPTON WJ, 1987, BUSINESS WEEK 0316, P102 HIRAOKA LS, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P1 HIRAOKA LS, 1985, FUTURES, V17, P495 HIRAOKA LS, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V28, P231 HIRAOKA LS, 1988, 6TH WORLD PROD C MON HOCHI S, 1986, BUSINESS JAPAN, V31, P24 HOLUSHA J, 1985, NY TIMES HOLUSHA J, 1987, NY TIMES IMAI M, 1986, KAIZEN JAIKUMAR R, 1986, HARVARD BUS REV, V64, P69 KOENIG R, 1987, WALL STREET J 1009, P1 KOTEN J, 1982, WALL STREE J 0417, P35 KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU KUHN TS, 1977, ESSENTIAL TENSION, P208 LOHR S, 1982, NY TIMES 0309 MASSING M, 1988, NY TIMES MAGAZI 0207, P20 MINATO T, 1987, JUN US JAP F S AOYAM MONDEN Y, 1985, INNOVATIONS MANAGEME NAG A, 1983, WALL STREET J 0107, P1 OHKUBO S, 1987, HONDA APPROACH PRODU OKUDA K, 1983, J JPAANESE TRADE IND, V2, P23 ROOBEEK AJM, 1987, FUTURES, V19, P129 SAKIYA T, 1987, HONDA MOTOR SALPUKIS A, 1981, NY TIMES 0203, A1 SASO M, 1984, MULTINATIONAL BUSINE, P7 SCHUON M, 1987, NY TIMES 1004, S5 TAKAMORI H, 1988, JAN INT S PAC AS BUS TAYLOR A, 1987, FORTUNE 1109, V116, P74 VOGEL EF, 1986, FOREIGN AFF, V64, P752 NR 43 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 1 BP 29 EP 49 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T2546 UT ISI:A1989T254600003 ER PT J AU ZAIDMAN, B CEVIDALLI, G TI THE TECHNOLOGY EFFICIENCY INDEX - A METHOD FOR MEASURING PROCESS TECHNOLOGIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ZAIDMAN, B, HEBREW UNIV JERUSALEM,CASALI INST APPL CHEM,SCH APPL SCI & TECHNOL,IL-91904 JERUSALEM,ISRAEL. CR 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P27 ALLEN DH, 1975, CHEM ENG 0303, P142 ATKINS M, 1977, POLLUTION CONTROL CO, P148 AYRES RU, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P2292 BRIDGEWATER AV, 1976, AACE B OCT, P153 CEVIDALLI G, 1971, CHIMICA IND, V53, P44 CHOWDHURY J, 1987, CHEM ENG 0817, P29 DELANEY CL, 1973, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V5, P249 DODSON EN, 1970, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V1, P391 DODSON EN, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P27 EDWARDS KL, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V24, P153 GORDON JT, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P1 JAMES DE, 1978, EC APPROACHES ENV PR, P163 KIRK R, 1947, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V1, P185 KIRK R, 1947, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V1, P916 KIRK R, 1950, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V5, P320 KIRK R, 1953, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V1, P588 KIRK R, 1953, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V10 KIRK R, 1953, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V15, P444 KIRK R, 1963, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V1, P338 KIRK R, 1965, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V8, P523 KIRK R, 1967, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V12, P819 KIRK R, 1968, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V15, P147 KIRK R, 1969, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V2, P411 KIRK R, 1978, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V1, P414 KIRK R, 1978, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V2, P309 KIRK R, 1980, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V9, P432 KIRK R, 1982, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V17, P373 KIRK R, 1982, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V17, P732 KIRK RE, 1952, ENCICLOPEDIA CHEM TE, V8, P680 KIRK RE, 1981, ENCY CHEM TECHNOLOGY, V14, P770 RUDD DF, 1981, PETROCHEMICAL TECHNO, P35073 STALWORTHY EA, 1970, CHEM ENG, P189 NR 33 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. 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PD MAR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 1 BP 51 EP 62 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T2546 UT ISI:A1989T254600004 ER PT J AU KOLM, JE TI REGIONAL AND NATIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBALIZING INDUSTRIES OF THE PACIFIC RIM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR *WORLD BANK, 1984, 1984 DEV REP *WORLD BANK, 1985, 1985 DEV REP *WORLD BANK, 1986, 1986 DEV REP BUCHANAN IC, 1986, SEP STANF RES I INT DRUCKER P, 1986, FOREIGN AFF, V4, P768 EARNSHAW P, 1980, IDENTIFICATION LACE FINDLAY C, 1986, CHINAS TRADE PACIFIC HARBISON F, 1964, ED MANPOWER EC GROWT HELLEINER GD, 1979, TRANSNATIONAL CORPOR HILL H, 1983, PROMETHEUS, V1, P1 HUFBAUER GC, 1970, TECHNOLOGY FACTOR IN INOGUCHI T, 1986, TECHNOLOGY SECURITY KIM L, 1984, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER KUZNETS PW, 1984, IND FUTURE PACIFIC B, P42 MAKINO N, 1984, NIPPON STEEL FORUM NOYCE RN, 1986, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V2, P61 ONISHI A, 1986, LONG TERM EC PERSPEC PARK EY, 1984, IND FUTURE PACIFIC B, P129 REYNOLDS LG, 1985, EC GROWTH 3RD WORLD SABA S, 1986, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V2, P53 SAXONHOUSE GR, 1986, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V2, P72 SEKIGUCHI S, 1984, IND FUTURE PACIFIC B VERNON R, 1966, Q J ECON, V80, P190 NR 23 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1989 VL 35 IS 1 BP 63 EP 91 PG 29 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T2546 UT ISI:A1989T254600005 ER PT J AU GUILE, BR TI INTRODUCTION TO SERVICES INDUSTRIES POLICY ISSUES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP GUILE, BR, NATL ACAD ENGN,ROOM 304,2101 CONSTITUT AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20418. CR *AM ENT I, 1987, P C TRAD SERV URUGUA *NAT RES COUNC, 1986, STAT SERV IND REP C *US C BUDG OFF, 1987, GATT NEG US TRAD ROL *US INT TRAD COMM, 1988, 2065 PUBL *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1986, OTAITE316 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1988, PAY BILL MANF AM TRA *US TRAD REPR, 1984, US NAT STUD TRAD SER BLUESTONE B, 1982, DEINDUSTRIALIZATION CHANDLER AD, 1977, VISIBLE HAND MANAGER COHEN SS, 1987, MANUFACTURING MATTER CREMEANS JE, 1985, SERVICE EC OPPORTUNI, P47 CYERT RM, 1987, TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMEN DUCHIN F, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES GONENC R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES GUILE BR, 1988, MANAGING INNOVATION HELFAND SD, STATISTICS TRANSPORT HERMAN R, 1988, CITIES THEIR VITAL S, P1 KENDRICK J, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES KUTSCHER R, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES LAWRENCE RZ, CAN AM COMPETE MARK J, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES MISHEL L, 1988, MANUFACTURING NUMBER MOODY G, 1985, SERVICE EC OPPORTUNI ROACH S, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES SMITH F, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES STALSON H, 1985, 219 NAT PLANN ASS RE WRIGHT R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES NR 27 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1988 VL 34 IS 4 BP 315 EP 325 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T0202 UT ISI:A1988T020200002 ER PT J AU QUINN, JB TI TECHNOLOGY IN SERVICES - PAST MYTHS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NATL ACAD ENGN,WASHINGTON,DC 20418. DARTMOUTH COLL,AMOS TUCK SCH BUSINESS ADM,HANOVER,NH 03755. CR 1985, ECONOMIST, V296, P50 1985, ECONOMIST, V297, P62 1987, ECONOMIST, V304, P66 1988, ECONOMIST, V306 *OFF US TRAD REPR, 1983, US NAT STUD TRAD SER *UNIPUB, 1984, MEAS PROD TRENDS COM *US BUR EC AN, SER SURV CURR BUS *US BUR LAB STAT, SER EMPL EARN *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1986, TRAD SERV *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1988, TECHN AM EC TRANS BARRAS R, 1986, APPL ECON, V18, P941 BELL S, 1983, FOREIGN EXCHANGE HDB BLACKWELL RD, 1983, J RETAILING, V59, P7 BLUESTONE B, 1986, GREAT AM JOBS MACHIN CACACE LM, 1986, AM BANKER 0729, P1 CHANG R, 1986, CANADIAN BUSINES SUM, P37 GONENC R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES KENDRICK J, 1987, BUSINESS EC APR, P18 KIRKLAND R, 1988, FORTUNE 0314, P40 KUTSCHER R, 1983, MON LABOR REV, P21 KUTSCHER R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES LEVY F, 1987, SCIENCE, V238, P923 MARK J, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES MARK JA, 1986, MONTHLY LABOR RE DEC, P3 MCMAHON P, 1987, MONTHLY LABOR RE DEC, P22 MISHEL L, 1988, MANUFACTURING NUMBER MOORE GH, 1987, BUSINESS EC APR, P12 PERSONICK VA, 1987, MONTHLY LABOR RE SEP, P30 PORTER ME, 1985, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAG QUINN JB, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN, P119 ROACH S, 1985, INFORMATION MANA JAN, P9 ROACH S, 1987, AM TECHNOLOGY DILEMM ROACH S, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES ROSENTHAL NH, 1985, MONTHLY LABOR RE MAR, P3 SETH J, 1983, J RETAILING, V59, P6 SILVESTRI GT, 1987, MON LABOR REV, P46 TANAKA M, 1984, J JAPANESE TRADE IND, P12 THUROW LC, 1987, SCI AM, V256, P30 URQUART M, 1981, MONTHLY LABOR RE OCT, P12 VOLLMAN T, 1986, COST ACCOUNTING 90S, P141 WRIGHT R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES NR 41 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1988 VL 34 IS 4 BP 327 EP 350 PG 24 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T0202 UT ISI:A1988T020200003 ER PT J AU FELLOWES, FA FREY, DN TI PICTURES AND PARTS - DELIVERING AN AUTOMATED AUTOMOTIVE PARTS CATALOG SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NORTHWESTERN UNIV,INST TECHNOL,DEPT IE MS,2145 SHERIDAN RD,EVANSTON,IL 60208. NR 0 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1988 VL 34 IS 4 BP 351 EP 367 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T0202 UT ISI:A1988T020200004 ER PT J AU DAVIS, JH TI CELLULAR MOBILE TELEPHONE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP DAVIS, JH, AT&T BELL LABS,CONSUMER PROD LABS,CRAWFORD CORNER RD,HOLMDEL,NJ 07733. CR 1978, BUSINESS WEEK 0807, B60 1979, BELL SYSTEM TECHNICA, V58 1980, TELECOMMUNICATIO JUN, P386 1981, BUSINESS WEEK 0413, P124 1987, BUSINESS WEEK 0421, P84 *TEL DIG INC, 1987, CELL RAD BIRTH IND S COOPER M, 1987, CELLULAR BUSINES AUG, P20 FRENKIEL RH, 1969, COMMUNICATION 0916 FRENKIEL RH, 1970, IEEE T VEHICULAR MAY PATRICK DR, 1985, COMMUNICATION 1204 ROBINSON JO, 1985, OPP WORKING PAPER SE, V15 SENEKER H, 1979, FORBES 0903, P52 VORHIES J, 1984, COMP CAPACITY DEMAND NR 13 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1988 VL 34 IS 4 BP 369 EP 385 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T0202 UT ISI:A1988T020200005 ER PT J AU ROACH, SS TI TECHNOLOGY AND THE SERVICES SECTOR - THE HIDDEN COMPETITIVE CHALLENGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ROACH, SS, MORGAN STANLEY & CO INC,1251 AVE AMERICAS,NEW YORK,NY 10020. CR *AM PROD C, 1950, MULT PROD IND BAILY MN, 1985, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, P1 BOWEN W, 1986, FORTUNE, V20 DENISON E, 1979, SURVEY CURR BUS, P1 MUSGRAVE JC, 1986, SURV CURR BUS, P51 SCHNEIDER K, 1987, NY TIMES 0629, V23 STANLEY M, 1986, EC PERSPECTIVES 0410 STANLEY M, 1987, SPECIAL EC STUD 0422 STRASSMAN PA, 1985, INFORMATION PAYOFF T WOLFF E, 1985, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, P29 NR 10 TC 17 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1988 VL 34 IS 4 BP 387 EP 403 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T0202 UT ISI:A1988T020200006 ER PT J AU QUINN, JB DOORLEY, TL TI KEY POLICY ISSUES POSED BY SERVICES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NATL ACAD ENGN,WASHINGTON,DC 20418. DARTMOUTH COLL,AMOS TUCK SCH BUSINESS ADM,HANOVER,NH 03755. CR 1987, BUSINESS MONTH APR, P48 1987, ECONOMIST 1017, P130 1987, ECONOMIST 1031 1987, ECONOMIST 1031, P14 1987, ECONOMIST 1205, P16 1987, ECONOMIST 1212, P92 1987, ECONOMIST 1226, P32 1987, FORTUNE 1221, P32 1987, WALL STREE J 1201, P36 1987, WALL STREET J 0318, P1 1988, ECONOMIST 0109, P9 *PRES TASK FORC MA, 1988, REP PRES TASK FORC M *US OFF US TRAD RE, 1983, US NAF STUD TRAD SER ASCHAUER DA, FEDERAL RESERVE OCT BARRAS R, 1986, APPL ECON, V18, P941 BELL S, 1983, FOREIGN EXCHANGE HDB COOK J, 1987, FORBES 1130, P54 CYERT RM, 1987, TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMEN DEARDORFF A, 1985, COMP ADVANTAGE INT T FAULHAUBER G, 1986, SERVICES TRANSITION GONENC R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES GUILE B, 1988, MANAGING INNOVATION HATSOPOULOS GN, 1988, SCIENCE, V241, P299 KENDRICK J, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES KUTSCHER R, 1988, TECHNOLOGY SERVICES LANDAU R, 1986, POSITIVE SUM STRATEG, P583 LEVY F, 1987, SCIENCE, V238, P923 MARK J, 1982, MONTHLY LABOR RE JUN, P3 MARK JA, 1986, MONTHLY LABOR RE DEC, P3 NORTON R, FORTUNE FEB, P18 NUSBAUMER J, 1987, SERVICES EC LEVER GR ONEILL D, 1987, CHALLENGE SEP, P19 QUINN JB, 1987, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL IN, P119 SAUVANT K, 1986, INT T SERVICES POLIT SHELP R, 1986, WALL STREET J 1223, P20 SHELP R, 1987, INT MANAGEMENT NOV, P104 VOLLMANN T, 1986, COST ACCOUNTING 90S NR 37 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1988 VL 34 IS 4 BP 405 EP 423 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA T0202 UT ISI:A1988T020200007 ER PT J AU SULTAN, PE TI PASSAGE ON THE ROPE BRIDGE BETWEEN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY - TALES OF VALOR WITH VIRTUE AND VANITY WITH VERTIGO SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SULTAN, PE, SO ILLINOIS UNIV,DEPT MANAGEMENT,ROOM 2120,BLDG 2,BOX 1100,EDWARDSVILLE,IL 62026. CR 1983, BUSINESS HIGHER ED F *OFF TECHN ASS, 1986, SCI POL STUD Z, P3 *TECHN POL TASK FO, 1987, AG STUD US TECHN POL, P6 *US HOUS COMM EN C, 1987, 10040 REP 2, P48 AYRES E, 1955, AM SCI, V43, P521 BLOCH E, 1985, ROLE TECHNICAL INFOR, P229 BURGESS J, 1986, WASHINGTON POST 0818 BUSH V, 1945, SCI ENDLESS FRONTIER CHARGAFF E, 1980, HARPERS, V250, P47 DRUCKER P, 1987, WALL STREET J 0825 FINN W, 1987, NY TIMES 0722 GLADWELL M, 1987, INSIGHT 0629, P9 GREENBERG DS, 1967, POLITICS PURE SCI, P133 HAGER W, 1983, C RECORD 0622, E2641 HERTZFELD HP, 1986, SCI PUBL POLICY, V13, P52 KELLER A, 1984, MINERVA, V22, P160 KENNEDY P, 1988, RISE FALL GREAT POWE KORACH M, 1964, SCI SOC, P190 KRANZBERG M, 1986, AM SCI, V56, P21 LARDNER J, 1987, FAST FORWARD HOLLYWO LARDNER J, 1987, WASHINGTON POST 0601 LARSEN ON, 1985, SOCIETY JAN, P12 LAYTON ET, 1971, REVOLT ENG SOCIAL RE LAYTON ET, 1987, TECHNOLOGY CULTURE, V28 LICHTENBERG F, 1985, NOV NAT AC SCI WORKS, P31 LIPSEY RE, 1986, NATIONAL BUREAU EC R, V2051 MALECKI E, 1987, TECHNOL REV OCT, P45 MARTIN E, 1986, D C RES SERV, P359 MORGAN D, 1983, WASHINGTON POST 0501 NEIKIRK WR, 1987, CHICAGO TRIBUNE 0707 NORMAN C, 1988, SCIENCE, V239, P1082 OHMAE K, 1987, NY TIMES 0729 PINE A, 1984, WALL STREET J 0413 POLLACK A, 1987, NY TIMES 0106 PRESS F, 1986, SCI POLICY STUDY, V21, P106 PRESTOWITCZ, 1987, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V9 PRESTOWITZ CV, 1987, CALIFORNIA MANAGEMEN, V9 ROCKEFELLER JD, 27 SCI TECHN COMM RE, P5 SABEL CF, 1987, TECHNOLOGY REV APR SAMUELSON RJ, 1987, WASHINGTON POST 0305 SHAPLEY D, 1985, LOST FRONTIER US SCI SMITH L, 1984, FORTUNE FEB STOKES B, 1987, NATIONAL J 0314, P606 TANAKA HW, 1987, DOING BUSINESS JAPAN, P58 THOMAS L, 1981, DISCOVERY, P62 THUROW L, 1984, NEW REPUBLIC 0227 WADE N, 1987, NY TIMES 0713 WALSH J, 1988, SCIENCE, V243, P1237 WELLS WG, 1982, AM BEHAV SCI, V26, P240 NR 49 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1988 VL 34 IS 3 BP 213 EP 230 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R3858 UT ISI:A1988R385800002 ER PT J AU SWYT, DA TI THE WORKFORCE OF UNITED-STATES MANUFACTURING IN THE POST-INDUSTRIAL ERA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SWYT, DA, NATL INST STAND & TECHNOL,BLDG 220,ROOM B322,GAITHERSBURG,MD 20899. CR 1982, MACROPAEDIA FARM MAC *US BUR CENS, STAT ABSTR US, V1384 *US BUR CENS, STAT ABSTR US, V1389 *US BUR CENS, STAT ABSTR US, V1390 *US BUR CENS, 1966, LONG TERM EC GRO ES4, V1 *US BUR CENS, 1976, HIST STAT US *US BUR CENS, 1985, STAT ABSTR US, V1392 *US BUR COMM, 1987, NATL INC PROD ACC *US BUR LAB STAT, UNPUBL ANN AV IND OC *US BUR LAB STAT, 1981, EMPL EARN *US BUR LAB STAT, 1982, 2133 OCC EMPL B *US BUR LAB STAT, 1984, 2186 OCC EMPL B *US BUR LAB STAT, 1984, 2220 OCC EMPL B *US BUR LAB STAT, 1985, MONTHL LAB REV BELL D, 1976, PHYSICS TODAY FEB GINZBERG E, 1981, SCI AM, V244, P48 JENNER J, 1988, COMMUNICATION 0624 MACHLUP F, 1962, PRODUCTION DISTRIBUT NELSON R, 1986, COMMUNICATION JUL PORAT MU, 1977, INFORMATION EC RUBIN MR, 1982, STUDIES INFORMATIO 1 RUBIN MR, 1986, KNOWLEDGE IND US SWYT DA, 1986, ADV IND ENG, V5 SWYT DA, 1987, MANUFACTURING RES PE SWYT DA, 1988, UNPUB MONOGRAPH US N NR 25 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1988 VL 34 IS 3 BP 231 EP 251 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R3858 UT ISI:A1988R385800003 ER PT J AU ARCHIBUGI, D TI IN SEARCH OF A USEFUL MEASURE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION (TO MAKE ECONOMISTS HAPPY WITHOUT DISCONTENTING TECHNOLOGISTS) SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ARCHIBUGI, D, CNR,VIA CESARE DE LOLLIS 12,I-00185 ROMA,ITALY. CR *ISTAT, 1985, IND STAT RIC SCI, V19 *ISTAT, 1986, IND DIFF INN TECN IN *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1981, MEAS SCI TECHN ACT F *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1987, REP WORKSH INN STAT ANTONELLI C, 1982, CAMBIAMENTO TECNOLOG ARCHIBUGI D, IN PRESS SECTORAL ST ARCHIBUGI D, 1987, FONTI ATTIVITA INNOV BISOGNO P, 1974, UN MODELLO ANAL INTE CESARATTO S, 1987, THESIS U ROME CHESNAIS F, 1986, STI REV AUT DEBRESSON C, 1986, CONCEPTUAL NOTES MEA DEBRESSON C, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL CLUSTE DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 DULUDE LS, 1982, ACTUALITE EC JUI ELLIS E, 1981, WORLD PATENT INFORMA, V3, P13 ERGAS H, 1983, INTERINDUSTRY FLOW T FAGERBERG J, 1987, RES POLICY, V16, P87 FREEMAN C, 1979, FUTURES JUN, P206 FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC FREEMAN C, 1984, FUTURES, P494 FREEMAN C, 1986, DIFFUSION TECHNICAL FREEMAN C, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION GIERSCH H, 1981, EMERGING TECHNOLOGIE GILLE B, 1978, HIST TECHNIQUES GRILICHES Z, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI HANSEN J, 1986, INNOVATION INDICATOR KENDRICK JW, 1980, NEW DEV PRODUCTIVITY LUNDVALL B, 1985, PRODUCT INNOVATION U MACLEOD R, 1986, TECHNOLOGY HUMAN PRO MADEUF B, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P125 MCGEE J, 1986, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT MOMIGLIANO F, 1983, INDUSTRIA GEN MOMIGLIANO F, 1985, INNOVAZIONE COMPETIT MOWERY D, 1982, INFLUENCE MARKET DEM NELSON R, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V5, P36 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY OGBURN WF, 1922, SOCIAL CHANGE RESPEC ONIDA F, 1985, INNOVAZIONE COMPETIT PAVITT K, 1981, EMERGING TECHNOLOGIE PAVITT K, 1984, RES POLICY, V13, P343 PAVITT K, 1986, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PAVITT K, 1986, TECHNOLOGY HUMAN PRO PAVITT K, 1987, J IND ECON, V35, P297 PAVITT K, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL ACCUMU PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P357 POLANYI M, 1967, TACIT DIMENSION POSNER M, 1961, OXFORD ECON PAP, V3, P323 ROBSON M, 1945, IN PRESS RES POLICY ROSENBERG N, 1976, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL ROSENBERG N, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC SAHAL D, 1985, RES POLICY, V14, P61 SAHAL D, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P1 SALTER WEG, 1966, PRODUCTIVITY TECHNIC SAVIOTTI P, 1986, RES POLICY, V13, P141 SCHERER F, 1984, PATENTS PRODUCTIVITY SCHERER FM, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P227 SCHERER FM, 1984, INNOVATION GROWTH SC SCHMOOKLER J, 1966, INVENTION EC GROWTH SCHMOOKLER J, 1972, PATENTS INVENTION EC SCHUMPETER JA, 1934, THEORY EC DEV SCHUMPETER JA, 1938, BUSINESS CYCLES SCHUMPETER JA, 1942, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SIRILLI G, 1980, CONCEPTUAL METHODOLO SOETE L, 1986, SECTORAL TECHNOLOGIC TERLEKYJ N, 1980, DIRECT INDIRECT EFFE TOWNSEND J, 1981, 16 SPRU OCC PAP UTTON M, 1979, DIVERSIFICATION COMP VONHIPPEL E, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P95 NR 69 TC 18 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1988 VL 34 IS 3 BP 253 EP 277 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R3858 UT ISI:A1988R385800004 ER PT J AU SUTHERLAND, JW TI INTELLIGENCE-DRIVEN STRATEGIC-PLANNING AND POSITIONING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SUTHERLAND, JW, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIV,DEPT INFORMAT SCI,RICHMOND,VA 23284. CR BECKMAN M, 1968, DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING BELDEN TG, 1977, INT STUDIES Q, V21, P1 CLARKSON A, 1981, EFFECTIVE STRATEGIC LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SAGE AP, 1984, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V14, P1 VONWINTERFELDT D, 1986, DECISION ANAL BEHAVI WARFIELD J, 1976, SOC SYSTEMS PLANNING NR 8 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1988 VL 34 IS 3 BP 279 EP 303 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R3858 UT ISI:A1988R385800005 ER PT J AU MODIS, T TI COMPETITION AND FORECASTS FOR NOBEL-PRIZE AWARDS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 KONDRATIEFF WD, 1935, REV EC STATISTICS, V17, P105 MARCHETTI C, COMMUNICATION MARCHETTI C, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V24, P197 MARCHETTI C, 1985, NEW SCI 0502, P12 MODIS T, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC NAKICENOVIC N, RR7912 INT I APPL SY NR 7 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1988 VL 34 IS 2 BP 95 EP 102 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R0224 UT ISI:A1988R022400001 ER PT J AU LAL, VB KARMESHU KAICKER, S TI MODELING INNOVATION DIFFUSION WITH DISTRIBUTED TIME-LAG SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 JAWAHARLAL NEHRU UNIV,SCH COMP & SYST SCI,NEW MEHRAULI RD,NEW DELHI 110067,INDIA. NATL INST SCI TECHNOL & DEV STUDIES,NEW DELHI 110012,INDIA. NATL INFORMAT CTR,NEW DELHI 110002,INDIA. CR BARTHOLOMEW DJ, 1976, J MATH SOCIOL, V4, P187 BARTHOLOMEW DJ, 1982, STOCHASTIC MODELS SO CHANDRASEKHAR S, 1943, REV MOD PHYS, V15, P20 CUSHING JM, 1977, INTEGRODIFFERENTIAL KARMESHU, 1980, J MATH SOCIOLOGY, V7, P215 KARMESHU, 1980, J MATH SOCIOLOGY, V7, P59 KARMESHU, 1982, MATH MODELLING, V3, P137 KREYSZIG E, 1983, ADV ENG MATH MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MARCHETTI C, 1983, AUTOMOBILE SYSTEM CO, V23, P3 MARION JB, 1970, CLASSICAL DYNAMICS P MAY RM, 1974, STABILITY COMPLEXITY SHARIF MN, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 SHARIF MN, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P301 WANG MC, 1945, REV MOD PHYS, V17, P323 NR 15 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1988 VL 34 IS 2 BP 103 EP 113 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R0224 UT ISI:A1988R022400002 ER PT J AU DEDE, CJ TI PROBABLE EVOLUTION OF ARTIFICIAL-INTELLIGENCE-BASED EDUCATIONAL DEVICES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP DEDE, CJ, UNIV HOUSTON CLEAR LAKE CITY,2700 BAY AREA BLVD,HOUSTON,TX 77058. CR *CARN FOR ED EC, 1986, NAT PREP TEACH 21ST *PC IND COMP, 1985, GLOB COMP NEW REAL, V2 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1984, COMP MAN AUT ED EMPL *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1985, AUT AM OFF 1985 2000 *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1985, INF TECHN RD CRIT TR ANDERSON JR, 1983, ARCHITECTURE COGNITI AYRES RU, 1984, NEXT IND REVOLUTION BORK A, 1986, NONTRIVIAL NONINTELL BROWN JS, 1985, J EDUC COMPUT RES, V1, P179 BURKE G, 1987, FUTURE IMPACT TECHNO CHARNER I, 1979, PATTERNS ADULT PARTI COATES J, 1971, FUTURIST, V5, P225 COATES JF, 1977, TELECOMMUNICATIONS P, V1, P11 DAWKINS R, 1976, SELFISH GENE DEDE C, 1986, INT J MAN MACH STUD, V24, P329 DEDE CJ, IN PRESS J ED COMMUN DEDE CJ, 1985, LIBR HI TECH, V3, P115 DEDE CJ, 1986, ED FORUM, V51, P65 DEDE CJ, 1987, COMPUTING TEACHER, V15, P20 DEDE CJ, 1988, FACTORS SHAPING EVOL DEDE CJ, 1988, J INSTRUCTIONAL DESI, V11, P15 FISHER FD, 1986, COMMUNICATION FLETCHER JD, 1985, APPLICATIONS ARTIFIC GROSS B, 1982, FRIENDLY FACISM NEW HIRSCHLORN L, 1984, MECHANIZATION WORK T JONASSEN DH, 1986, EDUC PSYCHOL, V21, P269 LEONTIEF W, 1986, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA LEPPER MR, 1987, APTITUDE LEARNING IN, V3 MELMED AS, 1986, THE J, V14, P77 NILSSON NJ, 1984, AI MAG, V5, P5 OUCHI W, 1981, THEORY Z AM BUSINESS PORTER AL, 1980, GUIDEBOOK TECHNOLOGY REICH RB, 1983, NEXT AM FRONTIER SMITH RB, 1987, BUILDING USING ALTER SPENNER KI, 1985, REV EDUC RES, V55, P125 STEFIK M, 1986, AI MAG, V7, P34 TURKLE S, 1984, 2ND SELF COMPUTERS H WENGER E, 1987, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGE WOODS DD, 1986, AI MAG, V6, P86 NR 39 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1988 VL 34 IS 2 BP 115 EP 133 PG 19 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R0224 UT ISI:A1988R022400003 ER PT J AU OWSINSKI, JW ROMANOWICZ, T TI ON DYNAMIC MODELING OF CAR POPULATIONS .2. A DATA-BASED ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP OWSINSKI, JW, POLISH ACAD SCI,SYST RES INST,NEWELSKA 6,PL-01447 WARSAW,POLAND. CR *MOT VEH MAN ASS U, 1983, MOT VEH FACTS FIG *MOT VEH MAN ASS U, 1985, WORLD MOT VEH DAT 19 AROESTY J, 1973, MATH BIOSCI, V17, P243 MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P3 MARCHETTI C, 1984, UNPUB ACTION CURVES ROCKLIN S, 1976, J MATH BIOL, V3, P225 ROMANOWICZ T, 1982, INT J SYSTEMS SCI, V13, P683 RUBINOW SI, 1976, BIOPHYSICAL J, V8, P891 VONFOERSTER J, 1959, KINETICS CELL PROLIF NR 9 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1988 VL 34 IS 2 BP 135 EP 144 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R0224 UT ISI:A1988R022400004 ER PT J AU DUTTA, RK MOHAPATRA, PKJ TI TECHNOLOGICAL UPGRADING AND ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR INDIAN RAILWAYS - A SYSTEM DYNAMICS STUDY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INDIAN INST TECHNOL,DEPT IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,KHARAGPUR 721302,W BENGAL,INDIA. TRIPURA STATE GOVT ENGN COLL,MECH ENGN,TRIPURA,INDIA. CR *GOV IND MIN PLAN, 1980, REP NAT TRANSP POL C *GOV INDIA MIN RAI, 1983, IND RAILW YB 1981 19 *GOV INDIA MIN RAI, 1985, RAILW ANN REP ACC BO *GOV INDIA MIN RAI, 1987, IND RAILW CORP PLAN *INDIA GOV ADV BOA, 1985, PERSP EN DEM SUPPL I *INDIA GOV MIN INF, 1986, IND 1985 REF MAN *INDIA GOV MIN PLA, 1965, REP EN SURV IND COMM *INDIA GOV MIN PLA, 1974, REP FUEL POL COMM *INDIA GOV MIN PLA, 1979, REP WORK GROUP EN PO *INDIA GOV MIN PLA, 1986, PLAN DOC 7TH 5 YEAR *UN EC COMM EUR, 1980, P SEM EN MOD STUD CO BORA MC, 1985, DYMOSIM USERS MANUAL HOFFMAN KC, 1976, ANN REV ENERGY, V1 LAPILLONE B, 1978, IIASA RR7817 MOHAPATRA PKJ, 1987, ORIENTATION COURSE L NAILL RF, 1977, MANAGING ENERGY TRAN NR 16 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1988 VL 34 IS 2 BP 145 EP 178 PG 34 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R0224 UT ISI:A1988R022400005 ER PT J AU PRATT, LJ SMULLEN, SA KYER, BL TI MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF OCCUPATIONAL WAGE EQUALITY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV TENNESSEE,DEPT COMP SCI,CHATTANOOGA,TN 37401. BERRY COLL,DEPT ECON,MT BERRY,GA. RP PRATT, LJ, UNIV TENNESSEE,DEPT ECON,CHATTANOOGA,TN 37401. CR 1987, FEDERAL RESERVE B, V12 *US BUR LAB STAT, 1987, EMPL EARN *US BUR LAB STAT, 1988, BULL, V2217 *US BUR LENS, 1986, CURR POP SURV MARCH GLEASON SE, 1985, MONTHLY LABOR RE DEC, P17 GORDON RJ, 1983, MACROECONOMICS, P285 HARTMAN HI, 1985, COMP WORTH NEW DIREC, P13 KOZIARA KS, 1985, MONTHLY LAOBR RE DEC, P13 MELLOR EF, 1984, MON LABOR REV, V107, P17 NORWOOD JL, 1982, 673 BUR LAB STAT REP PRATT L, 1986 NAT SOC SCI ASS SHACKMARQUEZ J, 1984, MONTHLY LABOR RE JUN, P15 STEVENSON M, 1978, LABOR MARKET SEGMENT, P243 TREIMAN DJ, 1981, WOMEN WORK WAGES, P13 NR 14 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1988 VL 34 IS 2 BP 179 EP 187 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA R0224 UT ISI:A1988R022400006 ER PT J AU GORDON, TJ GREENSPAN, D TI CHAOS AND FRACTALS - NEW TOOLS FOR TECHNOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL-FORECASTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INST PENN HOSP,BALA CYNWYD,PA 19004. RP GORDON, TJ, FUTURES GRP,76 EASTERN BLVD,GLASTONBURY,CT 06033. CR CRUTCHFIELD JP, 1986, SCI AM DEC DEWDNEY AK, 1985, SCI AM AUG DEWDNEY AK, 1987, SCI AM NOV GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOSPHERIC SC MAR MANDLEBROT B, 1977, FRACTALS FORM CHANCE SANDER LM, 1987, SCI AM, V256, P94 SAPERSTEIN AM, 1984, NATURE, V308, P303 SCHROEDER PB, 1986, BYTE DEC WINOGRAD T, 1986, UNDERSTANDING COMPUT WOLF A, 1983, NATURE SEP YORK J, 1975, AM MATH MONTHLY, V82 NR 12 TC 21 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1988 VL 34 IS 1 BP 1 EP 25 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q4277 UT ISI:A1988Q427700001 ER PT J AU TAKANASHI, N TANAKA, A YOSHII, H WADA, Y TI THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE INFORMATION-SOCIETY - SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE TELECOMMUNICATION CABLE FIRE IN THE SETAGAYA-TELEPHONE-OFFICE, TOKYO SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INST FUTURE TECHNOL,SCI MUSEUM,KITANOMARU KOEN 2-1,CHIYODA KU,TOKYO 102,JAPAN. CR *I FUT TECHN, 1985, IMP SET TEL CABL FIR *NIPP TEL TEL PUBL, 1985, SET TEL OFF CAB TUNN *RES I TEL EC, 1985, STUD TEL INT DUE CAB *SET TEL OFF, 1985, REP COMM CABL FIR AC *U TOKYO ENG DEP C, 1985, CONS INH DAM AR COUN ARONSON SH, INT J COMP SOCIOLOGY, V12, P153 HONDA Y, 1985, USHIO MAR, P84 KEOHANE RO, 1977, POWER INTERDEPENDENC NAWA K, 1985, MANNERS INFORMATION SHIMAZAKI S, 1985, TECHNOLOGY MAN JUN, P32 WURTGEL AH, 1977, SOCIAL IMPACT TELEPH YOSHII H, 1985, TECHNOLOGY EC MAY, P16 NR 12 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1988 VL 34 IS 1 BP 27 EP 52 PG 26 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q4277 UT ISI:A1988Q427700002 ER PT J AU LOUGH, WT WHITE, KP TI A TECHNOLOGY-ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR ELECTRIC UTILITY PLANNING IN THE UNITED-STATES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV VIRGINIA,SYST ENGN,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22903. RP LOUGH, WT, VIRGINIA STATE CORP COMMISS,DIV ENERGY REGULAT,POB 1197,RICHMOND,VA 23209. CR *US C, 1985, OTAE246 *US C, 1987, ASS ACT, P73 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1980, EMD80112 AHMAD RS, 1979, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V9, P450 ARMSTRONG JE, 1977, NSFRA770439 NAT SCI ARNSTEIN S, 1977, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V7, P571 BALLARD SC, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P37 CHEN K, 1975, J INT SOC TECHNOL AS, V1, P17 CHEN K, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P27 COATES JF, 1975, PERSPECTIVES TECHNOL COATES JF, 1976, CHEMTECH JUN, P372 COATES VT, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P331 DALKEY N, 1969, FUTURES, P408 DONOVAN PF, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P223 DOUGLAS J, 1983, EPRI J, V8, P6 FISCHHOFF B, 1981, ACCEPTABLE RISK HOBBS BF, 1982, NUREGCR1687 BNL REP JONES MV, 1972, FUTURIST FEB, P19 KAWAMURA K, 1979, FUTURES AUG, P299 KAWAMURA K, 1980, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN KEENEY RL, 1980, SITING ENERGY FACILI LEE AM, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P15 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LOUGH WT, 1987, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN LOUGH WT, 1987, THESIS U VIRGINIA MALONEY JD, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P321 MERKHOFER MW, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P237 NEHNEVAJSA J, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P245 NELMS KR, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P43 PORTER AL, 1980, GUIDEBOOK TECHNOLOGY PREBLE JF, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P75 RAIFFA H, 1968, DECISION ANAL ROPER AT, 1980, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMEN ROSSINI FA, 1976, J INT SOC TECHNOL AS, V2, P21 STUMPF SA, 1979, ACAD MANAGE REV, V4, P589 VANDEVEN A, 1971, ACAD MANAGE J, V14, P203 VANDEVEN A, 1974, ACAD MANAGE J, V17, P605 WOOD FB, 1982, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V22, P211 NR 38 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1988 VL 34 IS 1 BP 53 EP 67 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q4277 UT ISI:A1988Q427700003 ER PT J AU DROR, I TI FORECASTING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THEIR SOCIOECONOMIC FRAMEWORK SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20052. RP DROR, I, RAFAEL,STRATEG PLANNING,14,POB 2250,IL-31021 HAIFA,ISRAEL. CR ABERNATHY WJ, 1978, INNOVATION TECHNOLOG, V80, P59 ABERNATHY WJ, 1983, IND RENAISSANCE PROD, CH9 CETRON MJ, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA CLARK J, 1984, DESIGN INNOVATION LO DROR I, 1987, TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCL FORRESTER JW, 1981, FUTURES AUG FREEMAN C, 1984, LONG WAVES WORLD EC FREEMAN C, 1986, DESIGN INNOVATION LO GRAHAM AK, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V17, P283 HALAL WE, 1986, NEW CAPITALISM HALAL WE, 1987, LIFE CYCLE EVOLUTION KONDRATIEFF ND, 1935, REV ECON STAT, V17, P105 MENSCH GO, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY, P127 PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES, V15 SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES THEO TEICH AH, 1986, TECHNOLOGY FUTURE TOFFLER A, 1981, 3RD WAVE NR 17 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1988 VL 34 IS 1 BP 69 EP 80 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q4277 UT ISI:A1988Q427700004 ER PT J AU ROMANOWICZ, TM OWSINSKI, JW TI ON DYNAMIC MODELING OF CAR POPULATIONS .1. SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ROMANOWICZ, TM, POLISH ACAD SCI,SYST RES INST,NEWELSKA 6,PL-01447 WARSZAWA,POLAND. CR AROESTY J, 1973, MATH BIOSCI, V17, P243 MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P3 MARCHETTI C, 1984, UNPUB ACTION CURVES ROCKLIN S, 1976, J MATH BIOL, V3, P225 ROMANOWICZ T, 1982, INT J SYSTEMS SCI, V13, P683 RUBINOW SI, 1976, BIOPHYSICAL J, V8, P891 VONFOERSTER J, 1959, KINETICS CELL PROLIF NR 7 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1988 VL 34 IS 1 BP 81 EP 94 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q4277 UT ISI:A1988Q427700005 ER PT J AU SHANNON, K TI THE NEW BIOLOGY OF GENIUS - BRAIN TRAINING FOR THE INFORMATION AGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 PACIFIC RIM RES,SAUSALITO,CA 94965. RP SHANNON, K, CANADIAN TREND REPORT,SUITE 764,1470 PEEL ST,MONTREAL H3A 1T1,QUEBEC,CANADA. CR ADAMS JL, 1986, CONCEPTUAL BLOCKBUST BANDLER R, 1985, USING YOUR BRAIN CHA BUZAN T, 1983, BRAIN USERS GUIDE GARDNER H, 1985, MINDS NEW SCI HIST C HARDT JV, COMMUNICATION HOOPER J, 1986, 3 POUND UNIVERSE HUTCHISON M, 1984, BOOK FLOATING HUTCHISON M, 1986, MEGABRAIN KRIEGEL RM, 1985, C ZONE PEAK PERFORMA LOYE D, 1987, WORLD FUTURES, V23, P67 ROBINSON J, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P325 ROSENZWEIG MR, 1967, PSYCHOPATHOLOGY MENT ROSENZWEIG MR, 1972, SCI AM, V226, P22 ROSENZWEIG MR, 1984, AM PSYCHOL, V39, P365 SHANNON K, IN PRESS NEW BIOL GE SHANNON K, 1984, NEXT CANADIAN EC STERNBERG RJ, 1985, IQ TRIARCHIC THEORY WILBER K, 1982, HOLOGRAPHIC PARADIGM NR 18 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1988 VL 33 IS 4 BP 299 EP 310 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q1655 UT ISI:A1988Q165500002 ER PT J AU HOFFMAN, RB MCINNIS, BC TI THE EVOLUTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODELING IN CANADA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WATERLOO,FAC ENVIRONM STUDIES,WATERLOO SIMULAT RES FACIL,WATERLOO N2L 3G1,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR 1969, INPUT OUTPUT STRUCTU *DOM BUR STAT, 1969, 1961 INP OUTP STRUCT *STAT CAN, 1980, US GUID STRUCT MOD S *STAT CAN, 1983, SOC EC RES FRAM US G *STAT CAN, 1987, VERS 2 REF MAN *STRUCT AN DIV, WORK PAP 860301 CAPRA F, 1985, FUTURES OCT GAULT FD, 1987, FUTURES FEB GRIBBLE S, 1980, STRUCTURAL ANAL DIVI MOLL R, 1981, USERS GUIDE STATISTI PRIGOGINE I, 1986, FUTURES AUG ROBINSON JB, 1985, DOLEFUL PROJECTIONS NR 12 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1988 VL 33 IS 4 BP 311 EP 323 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q1655 UT ISI:A1988Q165500003 ER PT J AU ROBINSON, JB TI UNLEARNING AND BACKCASTING - RETHINKING SOME OF THE QUESTIONS WE ASK ABOUT THE FUTURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WATERLOO,WATERLOO SIMULAT RES FACIL,WATERLOO N2L 3G1,ONTARIO,CANADA. RP ROBINSON, JB, UNIV WATERLOO,DEPT ENVIRONM & RESOURCE STUDIES,WATERLOO N2L 3G1,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR *CAN SOC SCI HUM R, 1987, DES SUST SOC CAN *ONT HYDR, LOAD FOR 861208 *ONT HYDR, REP 651SP *ONT HYDR, REP 652SP *ONT SEL COMM EN, 1986, FIN REPT TOW BAL EL ARMSTRONG J, 1980, TECHNOLOGY REV, V83, P18 ARMSTRONG J, 1985, LONG RANGE FORECASTI ASCHER W, 1978, FORECASTING APPRAISA BAUMGARTNER T, 1987, POLITICS ENERGY FORE BOTEZ MC, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P261 CAPUTO R, 1984, FUTURES, V16, P233 DEMAN R, 1986, SHAPING SOCIAL ORG S DEMAN R, 1987, ENERGY FORECASTING O GAULT F, 1976, FUTURES, V19, P3 GREENBERGER M, 1976, MODELS POLICY PROCES HERRARA A, 1976, CATASTROPHE NEW SOC HOFFMAN R, 1986, WP860301 STAT CAN ST HOOS, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P335 JANTSCH E, 1967, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA LINSTONE H, 1977, FUTURES RES NEW DIRE LINSTONE H, 1984, FUTURES, V16, P396 MANNERMAA M, 1986, FUTURES, V18, P658 MARSHALL E, 1980, SCIENCE, V208, P1353 MARUYAMA M, 1971, HUMAN FUTURISTICS MASINI E, 1984, FUTURES, V16, P468 MEADOWS D, 1982, GROPING DARK 1ST DEC MEADOWS D, 1985, ELECTRONIC ORACLE CO ROBINSON J, 1982, ENERG POLICY, V10, P337 ROBINSON J, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P229 ROBINSON J, 1987, POLITICS ENERGY FORE ROBINSON JB, 1982, ENERGY INT J, V7, P627 ROBINSON JB, 1982, POLICY SCI, V15, P23 ROBINSON JB, 1988, ENERG POLICY, V16, P58 STERN P, 1984, ENERGY USE HUMAN DIM STERN P, 1984, IMPROVING ENERGY DEM STERN PC, 1986, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V5, P200 VANSTEENBERGEN B, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P376 WYNNE B, 1983, WP83127 INT I APPL S WYNNE B, 1984, POLICY SCI, V17, P277 NR 39 TC 31 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. 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PD JUL PY 1988 VL 33 IS 4 BP 325 EP 338 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q1655 UT ISI:A1988Q165500004 ER PT J AU VALASKAKIS, K TI AT THE CROSSROADS OF FUTURISM AND PROSPECTIVE - TOWARDS A CANADIAN SYNTHESIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR 1977, PROSPECTIVE SOCIOECO 1982, FUTUR QUEBEC CONDITI DEJOUVENEL B, ART CONJECTURE FITZPATRICK I, IN PRESS ALTERNATIVE GODET M, 1985, CRISES ARE OPPORTUNI GODET M, 1985, PROSPECTIVE PLANIFIC LESOURNE J, 1986, FIN HABITUDES VALASKAKIS K, 1986 BETA REPORT ENV VALASKAKIS K, CAPITAL SEARCH ROLE VALASKAKIS K, FUTURE PROSPECTS AFR VALASKAKIS K, 1976, PROSPECTIVE SAHEL CO VALASKAKIS K, 1979, CONSERVER SOC VALASKAKIS K, 1981, QUEBEC SON DESTIN IN VALASKAKIS K, 1982, FUTUR QUEBEC CONDITI VALASKAKIS K, 1986, FUTURES AUG VALASKAKIS K, 1986, FUTURES DEC VALASKAKIS K, 1986, PROSPECTIVE LANGUE F NR 17 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1988 VL 33 IS 4 BP 339 EP 353 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q1655 UT ISI:A1988Q165500005 ER PT J AU MITCHELL, WG VRAETS, JW TI OF STRATEGIC-PLANNING, COMPUTERS, AND EDUCATION - AN ONTARIO PERSPECTIVE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR *ONT MIN ED, 1987, FUNCT REQ MICR ED US NR 1 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1988 VL 33 IS 4 BP 355 EP 363 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q1655 UT ISI:A1988Q165500006 ER PT J AU HOLLINSHEAD, MJ TI ALBERTA AND THE 200-YEAR PRESENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HOLLINSHEAD, MJ, ASSOCIATED ECON ANAL INC,10907 36TH AVE,EDMONTON T6J 0B7,ALBERTA,CANADA. CR 1981, LEARNING FAMILIAL SO BARRACLOUGH G, 1967, INTRO CONT HIST BATESON G, 1980, MIND NATURE BERMAN M, 1982, REENCHANTMENT WORLD MARCHETTI C, 1985, NEW SCI 0502, P12 MCNEIL WH, 1982, PURSUIT POWER PEREZ C, 1983, FUTURES OCT, P357 PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER CHAOS NR 8 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1988 VL 33 IS 4 BP 365 EP 375 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q1655 UT ISI:A1988Q165500007 ER PT J AU SIMMONDS, WHC TI FUTURES RESEARCH - NEW STARTING POINTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NATL RES COUNCIL CANADA,INTEGRAT STUDIES,OTTAWA K1A 0R6,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR *JAPAN COUNC SCI T, 1984, 11TH INQ *STAT CAN, 1982, CURR PUBL IND 1988 *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, BRUNDTL REP ABUMOSTAFA YS, 1987, SCI AM, V256, P88 BARNES SB, 1977, INTERESTS GROWTH KNO BARNES SB, 1982, TS KUHN SOCIAL SCI BERGER PL, 1966, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION BERNSTEIN RJ, 1985, HABERMAS MODERNITY CURTIS GL, 1983, ELECTION CAMPAIGNING DENISON EF, 1979, ACCOUNTING SLOWER EC GAULT FD, 1985, FUTURES OCT, P509 GOFFMAN E, 1959, PRESENTATION SELF EV GOFFMAN E, 1974, FRAME ANAL HENSHEL RL, 1978, HDB FUTURES RES, P99 HERITAGE J, 1984, GARFINKEL ETHNOMETHO HOFFMAN R, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P311 JACKSON D, 1980, LLOYDS BANK REV, P42 JAMES W, 1963, PRAGMATISM OTHER ESS JOAS H, 1980, GH MEAD CONT REEXAMI LINSTONE HA, 1977, FUTURES RES NEW DIRE LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MANNHEIM K, 1936, IDEOLOGY UTOPIA MARIEN M, 1985, FUTURES RES Q, V1, P13 MERTON RK, 1968, SOCIAL THEORY SOCIAL MITROFF I, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P389 ONISHI A, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V31, P269 PEARS D, 1985, WITTGENSTEIN ROBINSON J, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P229 ROBINSON J, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P325 SAPORITO W, 1987, FORTUNE, V115, P26 SCHUTZ A, 1962, COLLECTED PAPERS SCHUTZ A, 1973, STRUCTURES LIFE WORL SIMMONDS WHC, 1986, 1986 P IEEE INT C SY, P1187 THUROW LC, 1987, SCI AM, V256, P30 VALASKAKIS K, 1988, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V33, P339 WENK E, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P353 WILDE KD, 1984, MAN ENV SYSTEMS, V14, P179 WILDE KD, 1987, COMMUNICATION NR 38 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1988 VL 33 IS 4 BP 377 EP 387 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA Q1655 UT ISI:A1988Q165500008 ER PT J AU AYRES, RU TI TECHNOLOGY - THE WEALTH OF NATIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP AYRES, RU, CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,DEPT ENGN & PUBL POLICY,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1988 VL 33 IS 3 BP 189 EP 201 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA P5256 UT ISI:A1988P525600001 ER PT J AU MUNN, RE TI ENVIRONMENTAL PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT CENTURY - IMPLICATIONS FOR LONG-TERM POLICY AND RESEARCH STRATEGIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MUNN, RE, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,ENVIRONM PROGRAM,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1988 VL 33 IS 3 BP 203 EP 218 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA P5256 UT ISI:A1988P525600002 ER PT J AU STERMAN, JD RICHARDSON, GP DAVIDSEN, P TI MODELING THE ESTIMATION OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES IN THE UNITED-STATES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV BERGEN,INST INFORMAT SCI,N-5014 BERGEN,NORWAY. SUNY BINGHAMTON,ROCKEFELLER COLL,BINGHAMTON,NY 13901. RP STERMAN, JD, MIT,ALFRED P SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. 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Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1988 VL 33 IS 3 BP 219 EP 249 PG 31 SC Business; Planning & Development GA P5256 UT ISI:A1988P525600003 ER PT J AU RAZ, B ASSA, I TI A MODEL OF COUPLED TECHNOLOGY-TRANSFER - A LOGISTIC CURVE APPROACH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP RAZ, B, TEL AVIV UNIV,INTERDISCIPLINARY CTR TECHNOL ANAL & FORECASTING,IL-69978 TEL AVIV,ISRAEL. CR 1985, LOTUS USERS MANUAL BARANSON J, 1981, N S TECHNOLOGY TRANS BROOKMAN FH, 1983, SCI PUBL POLICY, V1, P229 CAVES R, 1982, MULTINATIONAL ENTERP CETRON M, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA CETRON M, 1977, IND TECHNOLOGY TRANS FIKSE DA, 1984, 1984 P INT C TECHN T FINDLAY R, 1978, Q J ECON, V92, P1 FRALEIGH JB, 1971, CALCULUS LINEAR APPR, V1 GEE S, 1979, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER HAWKINS RG, 1981, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER HAYDEN E, 1984, 1984 P INT C TECHN T IWAI K, 1981, 602 COWL F DISC PAP IWAI K, 1981, 603 COWL F DISC PAP KUO SS, 1985, COMPUTER APPLICATION LUENBERG D, 1977, INTRO DYNAMIC SYSTEM MASINGTON NJ, 1984, 1984 P INT C TECHN T NELSON R, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY RABENSTEIN A, 1966, INTRO ORDINARY DIFFE RAZ B, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V24, P31 SCHUMPETER JA, 1950, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SHVARTZ HR, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V23, P173 STACEY GS, 1984, 1984 P INT C TECHN T TEECE DJ, 1977, ECON J, V87, P242 TILTON JE, 1971, INT DIFFUSION TECHNO VERNON R, 1966, Q J ECON, V80, P190 WILLIAMSON OE, 1981, J ECON LIT, V19, P1537 NR 27 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1988 VL 33 IS 3 BP 251 EP 265 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA P5256 UT ISI:A1988P525600004 ER PT J AU MODIS, T DEBECKER, A TI INNOVATION IN THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MODIS, T, DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP,DEPT MGT SCI,65 CHEMIN ETANG,CH-1219 CHATELAINE,SWITZERLAND. CR BALACHANDRA R, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V16, P155 DEBECKER A, 1986, IN PRESS 6TH INT S F FILDES R, 1987, FORECASTING PLANNING FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 MAHAJAN V, 1978, MANAGE SCI, V24, P1589 MARCHETTI C, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V24, P197 MEADE N, J FORECASTING, V3, P75 MEADE N, 1985, J OPER RES SOC, V36, P1103 NR 8 TC 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1988 VL 33 IS 3 BP 267 EP 278 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA P5256 UT ISI:A1988P525600005 ER PT J AU CHOI, HS TI SCIENCE POLICY MECHANISM AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN THE DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR *UNESCAP, 1975, GUID DEV IND TECHN A *UNESCO, 1982, APPL SCI TECHN DEV A CHOI HS, 1984, IND RES LESS DEV COU, CH1 CHOI HS, 1986, TECHNOLOGY DEV DEV C, CH2 CHOI HS, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P347 COPER C, 1972, J DEV STUDIES KAPLINSKY R, 1972, TRANSFER TECHNOLOGY, R10 NR 7 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1988 VL 33 IS 3 BP 279 EP 292 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA P5256 UT ISI:A1988P525600006 ER PT J AU MITROFF, II PAUCHANT, TC SHRIVASTAVA, P TI THE STRUCTURE OF MAN-MADE ORGANIZATIONAL CRISES - CONCEPTUAL AND EMPIRICAL ISSUES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GENERAL-THEORY OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NYU,GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,NEW YORK,NY 10003. UNIV LAVAL,DEPT ADMINISTRAT SCI,QUEBEC CITY G1K 7P4,QUEBEC,CANADA. RP MITROFF, II, UNIV SO CALIF,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CTR CRISIS MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR *PC SPAC SHUTTL CH, 1986, 040000004963 REP ACKOFF R, 1981, CREATING CORPORATE F ANDRIOLE SJ, 1985, CORPORATE CRISIS MAN BETTELHEIM B, 1943, J ABNORM SOC PSYCH, V38, P417 BILLINGS RS, 1980, ADM SCI Q, V25, P300 BROWN L, 1986, STATE WORLD CHASE WH, 1984, ORIGINS FUTURE CHURCHMAN C, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS DRAPER N, 1986, TRAINING, V23, P30 DUTTON JE, 1986, J MANAGE STUD, V23, P501 ERMAN DM, 1978, CORPORATE GOVT DEVIA FEINBERG M, 1987, WORKING WOMAN, V12, P24 FEYERABEND P, MINNESOTA STUDIES PH, V4, P17 FEYERABEND P, 1965, BEYOND EDGE CERTAINT, P145 FINK S, 1986, CRISIS MANAGEMENT GEPHART RP, 1984, J MANAGE, V10, P205 HOHENEMSER C, 1986, ENVIRONMENT 0616 KAHN R, 1985, INFORMATION SOC, V3, P303 LITTLEJOHN RF, 1986, SECURITY MANAGEMENT, V30, P38 MEYER AD, 1982, ADM SCI Q, V27, P515 MILBURN TW, 1984, HUM RELAT, V36, P1141 MILBURN TW, 1984, HUMAN RELATIONS MITROFF I, 1973, PHILOS SCI, V40, P255 MITROFF II, IN PRESS COLUMBIA J MITROFF II, INTERFACES, V4, P46 MITROFF II, 1974, SUBJECTIVE SIDE SCI MITROFF II, 1978, METHODOLOGICAL APPRO MITROFF II, 1983, STAKEHOLDERS ORG MIN MITROFF II, 1984, CORPORATE TRAGEDIES NELKIN D, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL DECISI NUDELL M, 1986, RISK MANAGEMENT, V33, P20 NUDELL M, 1986, RISK MANAGEMENT, V33, P30 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS PHELPS NL, 1986, J BUS STRAT, V6, P5 RAPHAEL B, 1986, WHEN DISASTER STRIKE RICH LA, 1986, CHEM WEEK, V139, P43 SHRIVASTAVA P, IN PRESS INT J MASS SHRIVASTAVA P, 1987, BHOPAL ANATOMY CRISI SHRIVASTAVA P, 1987, COLUMBIA J WORLD BUS SILLS DL, 1982, ACCIDENT 3 MILE ISLA SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 SMART CF, 1978, STUDIES CRISIS MANAG STARBUCK WH, 1978, J BUS ADMIN, V9, P111 STAW BM, 1981, ADM SCI Q, V26, P501 TOLBA MK, 1982, DEV DESTRUCTION EVOL TURNER BA, 1978, MAN MADE DISASTER WEDEKING G, 1969, PHILOS SCI, V36, P375 NR 47 TC 12 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 2 BP 83 EP 107 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA N9451 UT ISI:A1988N945100001 ER PT J AU UDWADIA, FE AGMON, T TI TRADE DEFICITS - A LOOK BEYOND THE ECONOMIC-VIEW SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP UDWADIA, FE, UNIV SO CALIF,SCH ENGN,DRB 394,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR BHAGWATI J, 1982, LECTURES INT TRADE CHURCHMAN CW, 1982, THOUGHTS WISDOM HIRSCHMAN AO, 1980, NATIONAL POWER STRUC JONES RW, 1979, INT TRADE ESSAYS THE JONES WT, 1969, CLASSICAL MIND KAHNEMAN D, 1986, AM EC REV SEP KREUGER AO, 1974, AM EC REV JUN, P320 LOCKE J, 1956, ESSAY CONCERNING HUM MARSHALL A, 1953, PRINCIPLES EC POLANYI K, 1975, GREAT TRANSFORMATION RICARDO D, 1821, PRINCIPLES EC TAXATI RIVLIN AM, 1987, AM EC REV MAR, P1 ROSECRANCE R, 1986, RISE TRADING STATE STOLPER WF, 1971, REV EC STUDIES, V9 TOBIN J, 1958, REV EC STUDIES, V25 TYSON L, 1987, BRIE23 U CAL WORK PA NR 16 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 2 BP 109 EP 118 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA N9451 UT ISI:A1988N945100002 ER PT J AU SIOSHANSI, FP TI PLANNING FOR UNCERTAINTY - A CASE-STUDY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SIOSHANSI, FP, SO CALIF EDISON CO,SYST PLANNING & RES,POB 800,ROSEMEAD,CA 91770. CR *SCHNAARS BER, 1986, CAL MAN REV SUM, P71 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP NR 3 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 2 BP 119 EP 148 PG 30 SC Business; Planning & Development GA N9451 UT ISI:A1988N945100003 ER PT J AU BENARIE, M TI DELPHI AND DELPHI-LIKE APPROACHES WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARD SETTING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR *TRW CORP, 1969, TRWS PROB FUT BRASSER LJ, 1967, IGTNO G300 REP DALKEY N, 1963, MANAGE SCI, V9, P458 DAY LH, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P168 DEE N, 1972, ENV EVALUATION SYSTE DEE N, 1973, PLANNING METHODOLOGY DEE N, 1973, WATER RESOUR RES, V9, P523 GOLDSTEIN N, 1975, DELPHI TECHNIQUES AP, P210 GORDON TJ, 1964, RAND P2982 PAP JILLSON IA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P124 LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LINSTONE HA, 1985, NATO ASI SERIES G, V4, P621 LIPFERT FW, 1982, ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTIO, P175 LUDLOW J, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI, P102 MUNN RE, 1979, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN POPPER K, 1933, ERKENNTNIS, V3, P426 POPPER KR, 1978, CONJECTURES REFUTATI POPPER KR, 1979, OBJECTIVE KNOWLEDGE QBENDER AD, 1969, DELPHIC STUDY FUTURE SCORER RS, 1974, POLLUTION AIR, P67 NR 20 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 2 BP 149 EP 158 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA N9451 UT ISI:A1988N945100004 ER PT J AU SVIDEN, O TI FUTURE INFORMATION-SYSTEMS FOR ROAD TRANSPORT - A DELPHI PANEL-DERIVED SCENARIO SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 SIDEA RES & INNOVAT HB,LINKOPING,SWEDEN. CR *COMM EUR COMM, 1981, EUR7154 *COMM EUR COMM, 1986, DG 13 INF TECHN *LOND DEP TRANSP, 1986, AUT BENNING HJG, 1986, SAE860125 TECHN PAP GARDELS K, 1960, GMR276 GEN MOT CORP HELMER O, 1983, LOOKING FORWARD GUID HONEY SK, 1985, NOVEL APPROACH AUTOM SCHMITT LA, 1985, SAE851456 TECHN PAP SUTHERLAND JW, 1975, DELPHI METHOD SVIDEN O, ARISE FEASIBILITY ST SVIDEN O, 1983, FUTURES DEC SVIDEN O, 1984, AUTOMOBILE ROAD INFO SVIDEN O, 1986, FUTURES OCT SVIDEN O, 1987, DELPHI PANEL DERIVED VONTOMKEWITSCH R, 1986, OCT CALTRANS C SACR NR 15 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 2 BP 159 EP 178 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA N9451 UT ISI:A1988N945100005 ER PT J AU UDWADIA, FE MITROFF, II TI ERRORS OF THE 3RD KIND IN ENGINEERING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP UDWADIA, FE, UNIV SO CALIF,SCH ENGN,DRB 394,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR ACKOFF RL, 1972, PURPOSEFUL SYSTEMS CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS MITROFF II, 1974, BEHAV SCI, V19, P383 RAIFFA H, 1968, DECISION ANAL INTRO NR 4 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 1 BP 1 EP 12 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M9211 UT ISI:A1988M921100001 ER PT J AU HANNAN, MJ ROSE, AZ TI THE POLICY-COST INDEX APPROACH TO MODELING CHANGE IN INPUT OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS - AN APPLICATION TO ACID-RAIN POLICY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 W VIRGINIA UNIV,REG RES INST,MORGANTOWN,WV 26506. CR *US BUR CENS, 1986, 1986 STAT ABSTR US *US EN INF ADM, 1986, COST QUAL FUELS EL U *US OFF TECHN ASS, 1986, 29 JUL 1986 STAFF PA *WV PUBL SERV COMM, 1985, 72ND ANN REP 1984 19 BLACKMAN AW, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P41 DENISON E, 1978, SURVEY CURR BUS, V58, P21 FISHER WH, 1972, INPUT OUTPUT TECHNIQ GIARRATANI F, 1974, ENV PLANNING A INT J, V6, P307 GRIFFIN JM, 1977, BELL J ECON, V8, P112 HAVEMAN R, 1981, NAT RESOUR J, V21, P489 ISARD W, 1959, IND COMPLEX ANAL KOHN RE, 1978, LINEAR PROGRAMMING M LAKHANI HG, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P149 MIERNYK WH, 1974, AIR POLLUTION ABATEM RODMAN K, 1985, J ENV SYSTEMS, V14, P211 ROSE A, 1977, J REGIONAL SCI, V17, P327 ROSE A, 1984, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V18, P305 ROSE A, 1986, INTERGOVERNMENTAL RE ROSE AZ, 1974, ENVIRON PLANN, V6, P321 SAVIOTTI PP, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P133 WHITE HJ, 1963, IND ELECTROSTATIC PR NR 21 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 1 BP 13 EP 22 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M9211 UT ISI:A1988M921100002 ER PT J AU CHOI, HS TI DIRECTION FOR TECHNOLOGICAL SELF-RELIANCE - KOREAN APPROACHES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NATL ACAD SCI,SEOUL,SOUTH KOREA. CR *KOR DEV INV CORP, 1985 1986 ANN REP *KOR I SCI TECHN, 1978, KIST LONG TERM RES D *KOR TECHN DEV COR, 1985 ANN REP *KOR TECHN FIN COR, 1985 ANN REP *MIT CTR POL ALT, 1981, PROP EST KOR TECHN D CHOI HS, 1977, 3RD P INT PAC SCI AS CHOI HS, 1981, POLICY STRATEGY SCI, V3, CH7 CHOI HS, 1983, BASES SCI TECHNOLOGY, CH8 CHOI HS, 1984, IND RES LESS DEV COU, CH7 LONG FA, 1981, APPROPRIATE TECHNOLO NR 10 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 1 BP 23 EP 32 PG 10 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M9211 UT ISI:A1988M921100003 ER PT J AU LEE, CO TI THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT AND R-AND-D INFRASTRUCTURE FOR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP LEE, CO, KOREA ADV INST SCI & TECHNOL,CTR SCI & TECHNOL POLICY,POB 131,DONG DAE MUN,SEOUL 131,SOUTH KOREA. CR 1986, KOREA YEAR 2000 PROS *SK MIN SCI TECHN, 1986, LONG TERM PERSP SCI BROOKS H, 1985, BRIDGE SUM, P7 CHOI HS, 1983, BASES SCI TECHNOLOGY, CH6 CHOI HS, 1984, IND RES LESS DEV COU, CH7 CHOI HS, 1986, MAY INT FOR IND DEV KIM L, 1980, RES POLICY, V9, P254 SAGASTI FR, 1979, MOBILIZING TECHNOLOG, P162 NR 8 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 1 BP 33 EP 54 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M9211 UT ISI:A1988M921100004 ER PT J AU SOKOL, TC STEKLER, HO TI TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE IN THE MILITARY AIRCRAFT COCKPIT INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 IND COLL ARMED FORCES,DEPT RESOURCE POLICY & ANAL,WASHINGTON,DC 20319. USAF,WASHINGTON,DC 20330. CR *US AIR FORC, 1973, AIRCR WEAP DEL MAN N *US AIR FORC, 1977, NONN AIRCR WEAP DEL *US AIR FORC, 1982, FLIGHT MAN USAF SER *US AIR FORC, 1986, CREW STAT OR F15E FO CANAN JW, 1986, AIR FORCE MAGAZI AUG, P48 NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 1 BP 55 EP 62 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M9211 UT ISI:A1988M921100005 ER PT J AU ROSLANOWSKAPLICHCINSKA, K TI MEASURING THE TECHNICAL TECHNOLOGICAL STATE OF PRODUCTS OR PROCESSES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ROSLANOWSKAPLICHCINSKA, K, POLISH ACAD SCI,INST MANAGEMENT,SALA PUSZKINA,PL-00901 WARSAW,POLAND. CR GORDON TJ, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P1 GRILICHES A, 1971, PRICE INDEXES QUALIT SAHAL D, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P1 SAVIOTTI PP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P133 NR 4 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1988 VL 33 IS 1 BP 63 EP 74 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M9211 UT ISI:A1988M921100006 ER PT J AU DRESCH, SP JANSON, KR TI GIANTS, PYGMIES, AND THE SOCIAL COSTS OF FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH OR PRICE REVISITED SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MICHIGAN TECHNOL UNIV,SCH BUSINESS & ENGN ADM,HOUGHTON,MI 49931. RP DRESCH, SP, MICHIGAN TECHNOL UNIV,ECON & BUSINESS,HOUGHTON,MI 49931. CR ARANSON PH, 1987, IN PRESS HIGHER ED S COOLEY WW, 1963, CAREER DEV SCI DRESCH SP, 1978, RES POPULATION EC, V1 DRESCH SP, 1987, IN PRESS HIGHER ED S DRESCH SP, 1987, NATURE PATHOLOGIES M HARMON LR, 1963, SCIENCE, V133, P679 MERTON RK, 1961, P AM PHILOS SOC, V105, P470 PRICE DJD, 1963, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI PRICE DJD, 1980, RES DEV TECHNOLOGICA NR 9 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1987 VL 32 IS 4 BP 323 EP 340 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M6205 UT ISI:A1987M620500001 ER PT J AU MARTINO, JP TI USING PRECURSORS AS LEADING INDICATORS OF TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV DAYTON,RES INST,DAYTON,OH 45469. CR MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA OLONE RG, 1985, AVIATION WEEK S 0218 TRIBUS M, 1969, RATIONAL DESCRIPTION NR 3 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1987 VL 32 IS 4 BP 341 EP 360 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M6205 UT ISI:A1987M620500002 ER PT J AU DAVIS, HC TI ACCOUNTING FOR TECHNICAL SUBSTITUTION IN THE INPUT OUTPUT MODEL SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP DAVIS, HC, UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,SCH COMMUNITY & REG PLANNING,6333 MEM RD,VANCOUVER V6T 1W5,BC,CANADA. CR 1987, SURVEY CURRENT BUSIN, V67, P42 *CAN STAT, 1984, 15201E CAT AYRES RU, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA CARTWRIGHT JV, 1980, REGIONAL EC IMPACT M CARTWRIGHT JV, 1981, EC IMPACT MILITARY B CARTWRIGHT JV, 1982, ESTIMATING POTENTIAL CHEN CY, 1984, 95 W VIRG U DEP MIN DAVIS HC, 1984, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V28, P25 DAVIS HC, 1987, RESOUR POLICY, V13, P47 MIERNYK WH, 1967, ELEMENTS INPUT OUTPU MILLER RE, 1985, INPUT OUTPUT ANAL ROSE A, 1984, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V18, P305 SALKIN EL, 1984, USE IMPLAN ASSESS RE SHECHTER M, 1983, RESOURCES POLICY, V9, P275 NR 14 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1987 VL 32 IS 4 BP 361 EP 371 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M6205 UT ISI:A1987M620500003 ER PT J AU MARCHETTI, C TI INFRASTRUCTURES FOR MOVEMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MARCHETTI, C, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR ANGELUCCI E, 1977, PRACTICAL GUIDE WORL, V1 DOXIADIS CA, 1974, ECUMENOPOLIS INEVITA FISHER JC, 1970, 70C215 GEN EL CO FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GOEL NS, 1971, REF MOD PHYS, V43, P231 GREY CG, 1969, JANES ALL WORLDS AIR HAFELE W, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS HAGERSTRAND T, 1967, INNOVATION DIFFUSION HALDANE JBS, 1924, T CAMBRIDGE PHILOS S, V23, P19 LOTKA AJ, 1956, ELEMENTS MATH BIOL MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 INT I APPL SY MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARCHETTI C, 1983, PP835 INT I APPL SYS MENSCH G, 1975, TECHNOLOGISCHE PATT MODIS T, 1986, IN PRESS INT J FOREC MONTROLL EW, 1971, REV MODERN PHYSICS, V43, P231 NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, RR7912 INT I APPL SY NAKICENOVIC N, 1987, WP8701 INT I APPL SY PEARL R, 1924, STUDIES HUMAN BIOL PESCHEL M, 1983, LEBEN WIR EINER VOLT STURMER G, 1872, GESCH EISENBAHNEN 1 VERHULST PF, 1945, NOUVEAUX MEMOIRES AC, V18, P1 ZAHAVI Y, 1981, DOTRSPADPB107 US DEP ZIPF GK, 1972, HUMAN BEHAVIOR PRINC NR 24 TC 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1987 VL 32 IS 4 BP 373 EP 393 PG 21 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M6205 UT ISI:A1987M620500004 ER PT J AU QUINN, JJ TI ESTABLISHING NEW RESEARCH DIRECTIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP QUINN, JJ, PLANNING INSIGHTS,47 FORDHOOK AVE,LONDON W5 3LS,ENGLAND. CR *SCI BOARD, 1984, STRAT SUPP COR SCI *UK ADV COUNC APP, 1986, EXPL AR SCI *UK SCI RES COUNC, 1970, SEL CONC SUPP RES CERUZZI P, 1986, IMAGINING TOMORROW H CHAPMAN ID, 1983, RES POLICY, V12, P317 CORN JJ, 1986, IMAGINING TOMORROW H CRONIN B, 1984, CITATION PROCESS DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN DELSESTO SL, 1986, IMAGINING TOMORROW H DOSI G, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P147 FLECK J, 1984, SOCIOLOGY SCI, V7 GLEAVE DJ, 1985, SPECIALLY PROMOTED P HEALEY P, 1986, RES POLICY, V15, P233 HOLROYD P, 1979, R&D MANAGE, V9, P107 IRVINE J, 1984, FORESIGHT SCI JONES H, 1978, FORECASTING TECHNOLO KLEIN BH, 1977, DYNAMIC EC KUHN T, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH REPORT PHILLIPS D, 1986, ROYAL SOC ARTS J, V134, P819 WASSERMANN E, INNOVATING STUDY DIS NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1987 VL 32 IS 3 BP 229 EP 243 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M2295 UT ISI:A1987M229500001 ER PT J AU ARABIE, P MASCHMEYER, CJ CARROLL, JD TI IMPACT SCALING - METHOD AND APPLICATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 AT&T BELL LABS,TECH STAFF,MURRAY HILL,NJ 07974. UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. N FLORIDA MENTAL HLTH CTR,LAKE CITY,FL. RP ARABIE, P, UNIV ILLINOIS,DEPT PSYCHOL,603 E DANIEL ST,CHAMPAIGN,IL 61820. CR ARABIE P, 1980, PSYCHOMETRIKA, V45, P211 BOZZOMO RE, 1976, THESIS KEAN COLLEGE CARROLL JD, 1970, PSYCHOMETRIKA, V35, P283 CARROLL JD, 1974, CONT DEV MATH PSYCHO, V2 CARROLL JD, 1976, M SOC MULTIVARIATE E CARROLL JD, 1977, P HUMAN FACTORS SOC, V21, P513 CARROLL JD, 1980, SIMILARITY CHOICE CARROLL JD, 1982, USE INDCLUS COMPUTER CARROLL JD, 1983, PSYCHOMETRIKA, V48, P157 CHANG JJ, 1968, USE PROFIT COMPUTER CHERNOUSKO FL, 1971, KIBERNETIKA, V6, P1021 CICARELLI J, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P139 CRONBACH LJ, 1953, PSYCHOL BULL, V50, P456 DALKEY NC, 1969, RM5888PR RAND CORP DIACONIS P, 1982, J AM STAT ASSOC, V77, P822 DIETZ PO, 1985, INTERFACES, V15, P50 EINHORN HJ, 1977, PSYCHOL BULL, V84, P158 EINHORN HJ, 1982, J FORECASTING, V1, P23 FAMA EF, 1970, J FINANC, V25, P383 FEENEY GJ, 1967, RISK AVERSION PORTFO FISCHER GW, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V28, P96 FREELING ANS, 1981, ALTERNATE THEORIES B FREELING ANS, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V28, P395 FRIEDMAN D, 1983, MANAGEMENT SCI, V39, P447 GUSTAFSON DH, 1973, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V9, P280 KEENEY RL, 1977, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V19, P267 KEENEY RL, 1982, DECISION ANAL STATE KEENEY RL, 1982, OPER RES, V30, P803 LINDLEY DV, 1982, J ROY STAT SOC A GEN, V145, P117 LUNDBERG U, 1975, 450 U STOCKH DEP PSY MORRIS PA, 1983, MANAGE SCI, V29, P24 MOSKOWITZ H, 1983, MANAGE SCI, V29, P735 MOSKOWITZ H, 1984, INFOR, V22, P116 NELMS KR, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P43 PREBLE JF, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P75 PRESS SJ, 1980, MULTIVARIATE ANAL PRUZANSKY S, 1975, USE SINDSCAL COMPUTE SEN TK, 1977, P HUMAN FACTORS SOC, V21, P518 SHAFER G, 1976, MATH THEORY EVIDENCE SHAFER G, 1981, SYNTHESE, V48, P1 SHEPARD RN, 1972, MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCA, V1 SHEPARD RN, 1979, PSYCHOL REV, V86, P87 SHNEIDERMAN MV, 1982, AUTOMATION REMOTE CO, V4, P568 TORGERSON WS, 1958, THEORY METHODS SCALI TVERSKY A, 1977, PSYCHOL REV, V84, P327 VLEK C, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V28, P235 NR 46 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1987 VL 32 IS 3 BP 245 EP 272 PG 28 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M2295 UT ISI:A1987M229500002 ER PT J AU SILVENNOINEN, P VAANANEN, J TI FORECASTING TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTION - THE LOGISTIC MODEL OF ENERGY-SYSTEMS REVISITED SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SILVENNOINEN, P, TECH RES CTR FINLAND,POB 169,SF-00181 HELSINKI,FINLAND. CR *INT EN AG, 1984, COAL PROSP POL IEA C *NUK, 1985, MARK REP NUCL FUEL C *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1983, NUCL POW FUEL CYCL D *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1984, NUCL POW FUEL CYCL D *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1985, NUCL POW FUEL CYCL D *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1986, NUCL POW FUEL CYCL D *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1986, PROJ COSTS GEN EL NU *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1987, NUCL EN FUEL CYCL FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 LEHTINEN R, 1983, ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANA, V3, P50 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 INT I APPL SY PETERKA V, 1977, RR7722 INT I APPL SY SPINRAD BI, 1980, RR8028 INT I APPL SY NR 13 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1987 VL 32 IS 3 BP 273 EP 280 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M2295 UT ISI:A1987M229500003 ER PT J AU GENOSKO, J TI THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF TELEMATICS - MODELING AND EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT ECON,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. RP GENOSKO, J, UNIV REGENSBURG,DEPT ECON & ECONOMETR,UNIV STR 31,D-8400 REGENSBURG,FED REP GER. CR BADE FJ, 1984, JJMJP8427 WISS ZENTR BOULIANNE LM, 1982, TECHNOLOGY KEY FACTO, P36 BROWN LA, 1968, DIFFUSION PROCESSES CROSS M, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, P54 FRITSCH M, 1985, TELEMATIK RAUMENTWIC GENOSKO J, 1986, RAUMFORSCHUNG RAUMOR, V44 GENOSKO J, 1986, UNPUB INTERREGIONAL GIBBS DC, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, P23 GRUBER W, 1969, FACTORS TRANSFER TEC, P255 HAGERSTRAND T, 1967, INNOVATION DIFFUSION JOHANSSON BH, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, P401 KLEINE J, 1982, TECHNOLOGY KEY FACTO, P147 MANSFIELD E, 1968, IND RES TECHNOLOGICA MARTI P, 1984, 46 NAT FORSCH PROGR MIETH W, 1982, AKADEMIE RAUMFORSCHU, V143, P14 NABSETH L, 1973, SCI TECHNOLOGY EC GR OAKEY R, 1980, REG STUD, V14, P235 ROMEO AA, 1975, REV ECON STAT, V57, P311 ROTHWELL R, 1982, INNOVATION SMALL MED SHAPERO A, 1969, FACTORS TRANSFER TEC, P179 STONEMAN P, 1983, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA TAYLOR LD, 1980, TELECOMMUNICATIONS D NR 22 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1987 VL 32 IS 3 BP 281 EP 293 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M2295 UT ISI:A1987M229500004 ER PT J AU BAINES, JT TI RESOURCES, RESERVES AND THEIR ECONOMIC-POTENTIAL OR HOW SCARCE IS SCARCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 LINCOLN COLL,CTR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT,CANTERBURY,NEW ZEALAND. RP BAINES, JT, UNIV CANTERBURY,CTR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT,CHRISTCHURCH 1,NEW ZEALAND. CR *NZ MIN EN, ANN STAT REL EL POW BAINES JT, 1983, ENERGY, V8, P963 BAINES JT, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P267 BAINES JT, 1985, ENERGY ANAL REV THEO BAINES JT, 1986, P100 U AUCKL NZ EN R BRIGG P, 1985, BP STATISTICAL REV W GREGG JV, 1964, ICI MONOGRAPH, V1 ION DC, 1980, AVAILABILITY WORLD E MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 NATUSCH GC, 1982, AUG WAT FUT C WELL ODUM HT, 1983, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY INTR PEET NJ, 1987, ENERGY POLICY JUN, P239 TAYLOR PC, 1983, CG83002 MIN EN MIN D TOHILL JC, 1984, ENERGY ANAL NZ ELECT WRIGHT JC, 1986, SUPPLY CURVES CONSER NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD NOV PY 1987 VL 32 IS 3 BP 295 EP 310 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA M2295 UT ISI:A1987M229500005 ER PT J AU VOLLAND, CS TI A COMPREHENSIVE THEORY OF LONG-WAVE CYCLES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP VOLLAND, CS, SPECTRUM TECHNOLOGISTS,616 E 63RD ST,KANSAS CITY,MO 64110. CR 1924, IRON AGE 0320, P887 *US BUR MIN, 1937, MIN RAW MAT *US DEP INT, 1909, MIN YB FORRESTER JW, 1979, MANAGE REV, P16 FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC FRIEDMAN M, 1963, MONETARY HIST US 186 GEVER J, 1986, BEYOND OIL GOELLER HE, 1976, SCIENCE, V191, P683 GOODALE SL, 1931, CHRONOLOGY IRON STEE GRAHAM AK, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V17, P283 HOFFMAN C, 1970, DEPRESSION 90S AM HI HUBBERT MK, 1957, DRILLING PETROLEUM P, P7 HUBBERT MK, 1977, GEOLOGISCHE RUNDSCHA, V66, P654 KONDRATIEFF N, 1984, LONG WAVE CYCLE MARCHETTI C, 1979, DYNAMICS ENERGY SYST MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MARCHETTI C, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V24, P331 MARCHETTI C, 1985, NUCL SCI ENG, V90, P521 MARSDEN RW, 1968, ORE DEPOSITS US 1933 MENSCH G, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY ROSTOW WW, 1978, WORLD EC ROSTOW WW, 1980, WHY POOR GET RICHER SANTINI DJ, 1983, 16TH INT ATL EC C PH SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES THEO SIMON JL, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE TAIGANIDES EP, 1978, WATER POLLUTION CONT, V1 VOLLAND CS, 1983, HIGH TECHNOLOGY JAN VOSKVIL WH, 1930, MINERALS MODERN HIST NR 28 TC 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1987 VL 32 IS 2 BP 123 EP 145 PG 23 SC Business; Planning & Development GA L3054 UT ISI:A1987L305400002 ER PT J AU CAMERON, HM METCALFE, JS TI ON THE ECONOMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MANCHESTER,DEPT ECON,MANCHESTER M13 9PL,LANCS,ENGLAND. UNIV MANCHESTER,PROGRAMME POLICY RES ENGN SCI & TECHNOL,MANCHESTER M13 9PL,LANCS,ENGLAND. CR DAVIES S, 1979, DIFFUSION PROCESS IN FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 GOLD B, 1981, J IND EC, V8 GRILICHES Z, 1957, ECONOMETRICA JANTSCH E, 1967, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA LINSTONE D, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTI MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MANFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29 METCALFE JS, IN PRESS 7TH P WORLD METCALFE JS, 1981, FUTURES, V13 METCALFE JS, 1984, SCI TECHNOLOGY POLIC SAVIOTTI PP, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27 STONEMAN P, 1984, EC ANAL TECHNOLOGICA THIRTLE C, 1986, ROLE DEMAND SUPPLY G NR 14 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1987 VL 32 IS 2 BP 147 EP 162 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA L3054 UT ISI:A1987L305400003 ER PT J AU GORE, AP LAVARAJ, UA TI INNOVATION DIFFUSION IN A HETEROGENEOUS POPULATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP GORE, AP, UNIV POONA,DEPT STAT,POONA 411007,MAHARASHTRA,INDIA. CR BARTHOLOMEW DJ, 1978, STOCHASTIC MODELS SO, P260 COLEMAN JS, 1964, INTRO MATH SOCIOLOGY, P493 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 GOLOMB M, 1950, ELEMENTS ORDINARY DI, P247 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI RATKOWSKY DA, 1983, NONLINEAR REGRESSION, P164 NR 6 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1987 VL 32 IS 2 BP 163 EP 167 PG 5 SC Business; Planning & Development GA L3054 UT ISI:A1987L305400004 ER PT J AU BOWONDER, B TI THE BHOPAL ACCIDENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP BOWONDER, B, UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,ASIAN & PACIFIC CTR TRANSFER TECHNOL,BANGALORE,INDIA. CR 1984, LANCET, V2, P1378 *DECH SCI FOR, 1985, BHOP GAS TRAG *ILO, 1984, SAF HLTH PRAC MULT E *INDIA ENV SERV GR, 1985, BHOP MED *TECHN, 1985, BHOP *UN CARB CORP, 1985, BHOP METH IS INC *US COMM EN COMM, 1985, 98102 AWASTHI S, 1985, CARAVAN, V782, P19 BHUSHAN B, 1985, BUSINESS INDIA, V182, P102 BOWONDER B, 1984, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V5, P89 BOWONDER B, 1985, ENVIRONMENT, V27, P6 DAGANI R, 1985, CHEM ENG NEWS, V63, P37 DAS SK, 1985, EC POLITICAL WEEKLY, V20, P2192 DEGRAZIA E, 1985, POPULAR PRAKASHAN FERA I, 1985, ILLUSTRATED WEEKLY I, V104, P32 KESWANI RK, 1985, INDIAN EXPRESS 1105, P5 KHANDEKAR S, 1984, INDIA TODAY, V9, P4 LINSTONE H, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MOREHOUSE W, 1986, BHOPAL TRAGEDY OTT DH, 1985, 3RD WORLD Q, V7, P648 PERROW CE, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS PERROW CE, 1985, MAR WORK POL PROJ C SMETS H, 1985, OECD OBSERVER, V134, P29 WORTHY W, 1985, CHEM ENG NEWS, V63, P27 NR 24 TC 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1987 VL 32 IS 2 BP 169 EP 182 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA L3054 UT ISI:A1987L305400005 ER PT J AU BOWONDER, B LINSTONE, HA TI NOTES ON THE BHOPAL ACCIDENT - RISK ANALYSIS AND MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 PORTLAND STATE UNIV,SYST SCI PHD PROGRAM,POB 751,PORTLAND,OR 97207. SYST FORECASTING INC,SANTA MONICA,CA. UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,ASIAN & PACIFIC CTR TRANSFER TECHNOL,BANGALORE,INDIA. CR 1984, NY TIMES 1216 1985, OREGONIAN 0130 1985, OREGONIAN 0131 1986, NEWSWEEK 0526 1986, NUCLEAR ENG, V31, P3 1986, NY TIMES 0826 1986, TIME 0224, P53 1986, WASHINGTON POST 0822 1986, WASHINGTON POST 0830 *AM C GOV IND HYG, 1984, DOC *NAT I OCC SAF HL, 1981, 81123 REP *UN CARB CORP, 1985, BHOP METH IS INC INV *US COMM EN COMM, 1985, 98192 SER ALLISON G, 1971, ESSENCE DECISION EXP ASCHER W, 1983, STRATEGIC PLANNING F ASHFORD NA, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P894 BALL GW, 1984, NEW YORK REV BO 1108, P5 BIDWAI P, 1984, TIMES INDIA 1219, P6 BOWONDER B, 1985, ENVIRONMENT, V27, P6 BOWONDER B, 1985, ENVIRONMENTALIS, V5, P89 BOWONDER B, 1987, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V32, P169 CASTLEMAN BI, 1985, EXPORT HAZARD, P60 CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS CHURCHMAN CW, 1977, FUTURES RES NEW DIRE COVELLO VT, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P285 DEGRAZIA AA, 1985, POPULAR PRAKASHAN DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE FISCHHOFF B, 1980, CHEM ENG NEWS 1020, P30 FISCHHOFF B, 1981, ACCEPTABLE RISK FISCHHOFF B, 1983, ANAL ACTUAL VERSUS P FLORMAN SC, 1976, EXISTENTIAL PLEASURE FORD D, 1985, BUTTON PENTAGONS STR GLADWIN TN, 1985, NYU BUSINESS, V5, P17 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HENDRIE J, 1985, BUTTON PENTAGONS STR HOHENEMSER C, 1983, ANAL ACTUAL VERSUS P HOLLING CS, 1977, FUTURES RES NEW DIRE INHABER H, 1982, ENERGY RISK ASSESSME KANE JA, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P369 KEMENY J, 1979, REPORT PRESIDENTS CO KUNREUTHER H, 1983, RISK ANAL DECISION P LANZA GR, 1985, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V19, P581 LEES FP, 1982, T I CHEM ENG-LOND, V60, P211 LINSTONE HA, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P275 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LINSTONE HA, 1985, INTERFACES, V15, P77 LITAI D, 1983, ANAL ACTUAL VERSUS P MOREHOUSE W, 1986, BHOPAL TRAGEDY OSTBERG G, 1984, MAT DESIGN, V5, P88 OSTBERG G, 1986, IMAGING SURPRISES OTWAY HJ, 1980, FUTURES, V12, P340 PERROW CE, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS RAMESESHAN R, 1985, EC POLITICAL WEEKLY, V20, P56 SELIGMAN D, 1986, FORTUNE 0303, P25 SIMON JC, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V13, P1 SLOVIC P, 1981, FACTS FEARS UNDERSTA STARR C, 1972, PERSPECTIVE BENEFIT SUBRAMANIAN A, 1985, BUSINESS INDIA, V202, P42 SUBRAMANIAN A, 1986, ECHO APR THOMPSON M, 1980, WP80175 INT I APPL S THOMPSON M, 1982, RISK SEMINAR SERIES TUCHMAN B, 1962, GUNS AUGUST TURNER BA, 1982, RISK SEMINAR SERIES TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 NR 64 TC 23 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1987 VL 32 IS 2 BP 183 EP 202 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA L3054 UT ISI:A1987L305400006 ER PT J AU JANSEN, TB TI ASSUMPTIONS OF FUTURES STUDIES - GUIDELINES FOR REFORMULATION OF TELEOLOGICAL DECISION-MAKING AS A RESEARCH PROBLEM SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP JANSEN, TB, INST APPL FUTURES STUDIES,TROMMESALEN 7,DK-1614 COPENHAGEN V,DENMARK. CR ABERNATHY WJ, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P379 ASCHER W, 1983, STRATEGIC PLANNING F ASHBY WR, 1960, DESIGN BRAIN ASHBY WR, 1964, INTRO CYBERNETICS, P202 BEER S, 1972, BRAIN FIRM BEER S, 1985, DIAGNOSING SYSTEM OR BUSINARO U, 1983, FUTURES, V15, P463 CASTI J, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V29, P241 CHURCHMAN CW, 1971, DESIGN INQUIRING SYS CLARK G, 1970, SCI SOCIAL WELFARE A CLARK IF, 1984, FUTURES, V16, P183 DELOMBRE J, 1977, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V10, P2 EVERED R, 1983, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V16, P72 FAYE J, 1981, NATURVIDENSKABELIGT GODET M, 1986, FUTURES, V18, P369 HASPESLAGH P, 1982, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN HAWKINS D, 1964, LANGUAGE NATURE JANSEN TB, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V23, P325 JANTSCH E, 1985, DESIGN EVOLUTION KANE J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P129 LASZLO E, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P271 LAUGHLIN CD, 1986, FUTURES, V18, P401 LIENHARD JH, 1985, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V27, P265 LINSTONE HA, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P259 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE MAKRIDAKIS S, 1986, INT J FORECASTING, V2, P15 MARCHETTI C, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P91 MENKES J, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P56 MERTON RK, 1959, SOCIOLOGY TODAY PROB, R9 MILLS CW, 1962, MARXISTS MITROFF II, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P51 MONOD J, 1970, HASARD NECESSITE NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR, P448 NIETZSCE F, 1877, UNZEITGEMASSE BETRAC PEDERSEN SA, 1982, FUTURES RES PHILOS A PLANCK M, 1933, WHERE IS SCI GOING, P141 PRIGOGINE I, 1979, NOUVELLE ALLIANCE PRIGOGINE I, 1986, FUTURES, V18, P493 ROTHMAN J, 1974, PLANNING ORG SOCIAL, P457 SAHAL D, 1981, PATTERN TECHNOLOGICA SIMMEL G, 1917, GRUNDFRAGEN SOZIOLOG SNOW CP, 1959, 2 CULTURES SCI REVOL UDWADIA FE, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P387 VOGE J, 1981, UN NOUVEL ORDRE EC I, P48 VONSENDEN M, 1960, SPACE SIGHT WHITE L, 1974, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P359 WITTHANSEN J, 1985, FILOSOFI, P47 ZETTERBERG HL, 1962, SOCIAL THEORY PRACTI, P18 NR 48 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD SEP PY 1987 VL 32 IS 2 BP 203 EP 224 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA L3054 UT ISI:A1987L305400007 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN BOWONDER, B CHO, ER MIYAKE, T PRAPAPORN, PT RAMANATHAN, K TI A FRAMEWORK FOR TECHNOLOGY BASED NATIONAL PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHARIF, MN, UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,CTR TECHNOL TRANSFER,POB 115,BANGALORE 560052,INDIA. CR *AS PAC CTR TRANSF, 1986, TECHN POL PLANN COUN *UN INT DEV ORG, 1981, DEV TRANSF TECHN SER, V15 AHMAD M, 1986, JUL STD BUET APCTT W DASGUPTA P, 1987, EC TIMES, V2, P5 FABER M, 1972, CRISIS PLANNING FREEMAN C, 1969, STATISTICAL REPORTS, V16 HICKS N, 1979, WORLD DEV, V7, P567 MORITALOU H, 1985, UN SCI TECHNOLOGY DE SCHLARB A, 1986, DEV COOPERATION, V6, P27 SHARIF MN, 1983, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P119 SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOLOGY POLICY FO NR 12 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1987 VL 32 IS 1 BP 5 EP 18 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K9351 UT ISI:A1987K935100002 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN BOWONDER, B CHO, ER MIYAKE, T PRAPAPORN, PT RAMANATHAN, K TI COMPONENTS OF TECHNOLOGY FOR RESOURCES TRANSFORMATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHARIF, MN, UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,CTR TECHNOL TRANSFER,POB 115,BANGALORE 560052,INDIA. CR SHARIF MN, 1983, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P119 NR 2 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1987 VL 32 IS 1 BP 19 EP 35 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K9351 UT ISI:A1987K935100003 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN BOWONDER, B CHO, ER MIYAKE, T PRAPAPORN, PT RAMANATHAN, K TI MEASUREMENT OF TECHNOLOGY CONTENT ADDED SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHARIF, MN, UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,CTR TECHNOL TRANSFER,POB 115,BANGALORE 560052,INDIA. CR *TECHN JICA, 1981, REP RES PROJ SMALL M ECKENRODE RT, 1965, MANAGE SCI, V12, P180 GRUPP H, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V30, P123 GRUPP H, 1987, PROBLEMS MEASURING T HENDERSON JM, 1980, MICROECONOMIC THEORY PAVITT K, 1982, RES POLICY, V11, P33 SAHAL D, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P1 SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P119 NR 8 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1987 VL 32 IS 1 BP 37 EP 47 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K9351 UT ISI:A1987K935100004 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN BOWONDER, B CHO, ER MIYAKE, T PRAPAPORN, PT RAMANATHAN, K TI MEASUREMENT OF LEVEL AND GAP OF TECHNOLOGICAL-DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHARIF, MN, UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,CTR TECHNOL TRANSFER,POB 115,BANGALORE 560052,INDIA. CR 1983, JAPAN STEEL B, V7, P4 1984, JAPAN STEEL B, V8, P4 1985, JAPAN STEEL B, V9, P1 1985, JAPAN STEEL B, V9, P6 1985, NIPPON STEEL NEWS, V178, P4 1985, NIPPON STEEL NEWS, V184, P5 1985, NIPPON STEEL NEWS, V185, P2 1986, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V225, P22 1986, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V225, P48 1986, JAPAN STEEL B, V10, P1 1986, JAPAN STEEL B, V10, P3 1986, MONTHLY EC REV, V370, P164 1986, MONTHLY EC REV, V370, P54 1986, NIPPON STEEL NEWS, V188, P2 1986, STEEL TODAY TOMORROW, V92, P10 *INDIA EC INT SERV, 1986, CURR EN SCEN IND *INDIA FERT ASS, 1986, 1985 1986 FERT STAT *JAPAN AG IND SCI, 1986, TRENDS RES DEV ACT J *JAPAN IR STEEL FE, 1987, STEEL IND JAP 1986 *N K MIN SCI TECHN, 1986, INTR SCI TECHN REP K *N K MIN SCI TECHN, 1986, LONG RANG PLAN SCI T BARKER R, 1985, RICE EC ASIA GAINES BR, 1984, OXFORD SURV INF TECH, V1, P1 IIDAKA T, 1984, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V198, P9 IIDAKA T, 1985, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V210, P7 IIDAKA T, 1986, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V222, P10 JOHNSTONE B, 1987, NEW SCI, V113, P28 KAWASAKI T, 1986, JAPANS STEEL IND KIM DJ, 1986, J ASIA ELECTRONICS U, V120, P85 KOIKE H, 1981, JAPAN COMMERCE IND, V22, P49 KOIZUMI M, 1979, WHEEL EXTENDED, V9, P12 KUJIRAI K, 1986, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V202, P35 KUJIRAI K, 1986, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V225, P6 MORIYAMA M, 1983, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V190, P39 MOTOHASHI K, 1986, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V225, P3 NAKAYAMA T, 1985, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V210, P3 RASTOGI R, 1985, ELECTRONICS INFORMAT, V12, P697 RASTOGI R, 1986, ELECTRONICS INFORMAT, V13, P548 SUNEYA T, 1986, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V222, P3 SUZUKI S, 1985, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V214, P21 SUZUKI S, 1986, J JAPANESE TRADE IND, V4, P38 SWAMINATHAN MS, 1977, INDIAN J AGR EC, V32, P1 TISDELL CA, 1981, SCI TECHNOLOGY POLIC TODA M, 1985, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V214, P38 YAMAMOTO M, 1984, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V198, P3 YAMAMOTO M, 1985, DIGEST JAPANESE IND, V214, P3 NR 46 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1987 VL 32 IS 1 BP 49 EP 68 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K9351 UT ISI:A1987K935100005 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN BOWONDER, B CHO, ER MIYAKE, T PRAPAPORN, PT RAMANATHAN, K TI EVALUATION OF NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHARIF, MN, UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,CTR TECHNOL TRANSFER,POB 115,BANGALORE 560052,INDIA. CR *AS PAC CTR TRANSF, 1986, TECHN POL PLANN SRI *INDIA EC INT SERV, 1986, CURR EN SCEN IND BELLER M, 1975, SOURCEBOOK ENERGY AS KIM YS, 1986, SELF RELIANCE SCI TE RICHELS RG, 1979, ADV ENERGY SYSTEMS T, V2, P179 NR 5 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1987 VL 32 IS 1 BP 69 EP 83 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K9351 UT ISI:A1987K935100006 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN BOWONDER, B CHO, ER MIYAKE, T PRAPAPORN, PT RAMANATHAN, K TI ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGY CLIMATE IN 2 COUNTRIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHARIF, MN, UN,ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,CTR TECHNOL TRANSFER,POB 115,BANGALORE 560052,INDIA. CR *AS PAC CTR TRANSF, 1986, TECHN POL PLANN COUN *NAT SCI BOARD, 1983, 1982 SCI IND *NAT SCI BOARD, 1985, 1985 SCI IND SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOLOGY POLICY FO NR 4 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD AUG PY 1987 VL 32 IS 1 BP 85 EP 109 PG 25 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K9351 UT ISI:A1987K935100007 ER PT J AU CASTI, JL TI MANUFACTURING AS A SYSTEM-DETERMINED SCIENCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CASTI, JL, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR *CAM INT COMP, 1981, 740 SPEC REP ABRAHAM C, 1985, NSF4 AD HOC COMM REP BIOCH E, 1985, COMMUNICATION JUN BLOCH E, 1984, IEEE T IND APPLICATI, V20, P8 BROWNE J, 1985, MANUFACTURING SYSTEM CASTI J, 1985, IIASA WP8575 CASTI J, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V29, P241 CHATTERJEE A, 1984, AUG ORSA TIMS C FLEX GERSCHWIN S, 1985, IEEE T AUTOMATIC CON, V30, P933 GERSCHWIN S, 1985, MIT LIDSP1408 LAB IN GERSHWIN SB, 1985, IBM J RES DEV, V29, P392 GOLDHAR J, 1984, 18TH ANN M NAT AC EN GOLDHAR JD, 1983, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV, P141 GUNN TG, 1982, SCI AM, V247, P87 HATVANY J, 1983, ANN CIRP MANUF TECHN, V32, P423 HATVANY J, 1984, 9TH P IFAC C BUD KAPLAN RS, 1983, ACCOUNT REV, V58, P686 MAY RM, 1973, STABILITY COMPLEXITY MERCHANT E, 1983, ANN AAPSS, V47, P123 MORSE A, 1984, 8471 VIS INT CORP TE NISHIYAMA K, 1985, IEEE T SYSTEMS MAN C, V15, P662 REID K, 1984, MECHANICAL ENG, V106, P28 ROSEN R, 1978, FUNDAMENTALS MEASURE SOLBERG J, 1985, FACTORIES FUTURE DEF SUH NP, 1984, ROBOTICS COMPUTER IN, V1, P39 WHITNEY CK, 1985, J MANUF SYST, V4, P157 YOSHIKAWA H, 1981, MAN MACHINE COMMUNIC YOSHIKAWA H, 1982, COMPUTER AIDED MANUF YOSHIKAWA H, 1984, 9TH P IFAC C BUD NR 29 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1987 VL 31 IS 4 BP 305 EP 321 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K1788 UT ISI:A1987K178800001 ER PT J AU PETROSKI, H KAYELLO, S TI MEASURES AND MISMEASURES OF THE APPLIED MECHANICS LITERATURE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP PETROSKI, H, DUKE UNIV,DEPT CIVIL & ENVIRONM ENGN,DURHAM,NC 27706. CR CARROLL MM, 1985, APPLIED MECHANICS RE, V38, R3 GOTTENBERG B, 1982, J APPLIED MECHANICS, V49, P685 JUHASZ S, 1981, APPLIED MECHANICS RE, V34, P317 JUHASZ S, 1983, APPLIED MECHANICS RE, V36, R1 METZNER AWK, 1985, APPLIED MECHANICS RE, V38, P133 NAGHDI PM, 1979, J APPLIED MECHANICS, V46, P723 PETROSKI HJ, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P309 PRICE DJD, 1963, LITTLE SCI BIG SCI PRICE DJD, 1975, SCI BABYLON RICE JR, 1985, APPL MECH REV, V38, P1247 NR 10 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1987 VL 31 IS 4 BP 323 EP 333 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K1788 UT ISI:A1987K178800002 ER PT J AU KIRSCHENBAUM, A TI SUBSIDIZED TECHNOLOGY AND ITS UTILIZATION - AIDS FOR THE DISABLED SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP KIRSCHENBAUM, A, TECHNION ISRAEL INST TECHNOL,FAC IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,IL-32000 HAIFA,ISRAEL. CR *AUSTR SCI TECHN C, 1983, TECHN HAND PEOPL REP *FED INT COMM, 1982, REP PRES COMM INT YE *MIT CTR POL ALT, 1978, GOV INV INN PROC REP *NAT CTR HLTH STAT, 1979, HLTH INT SURV 1976 1 *US DEP HLTH HUM S, 1980, SSA1311978 PUBL *US OFF TECH ASS, 1982, TECH HAND PEOPL *US OFF TECH ASS, 1983, OTAHCS26 *US REH SERV ADM, 1978, REH ENG PLAN CONT PR BAKER WO, 1965, TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL CH BUTLER J, 1981, UNPUB HLTH CARE EXPE GANDER JP, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V29, P33 GINZBERG E, 1965, TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL CH GOLDBERG AI, 1987, IN PRESS ORG STUDIES HUFBAUER K, 1986, SOC STUD SCI, V16, P61 KIRSCHENBAUM A, 1984, MICROCOMPUTER BASED KIRSCHENBAUM A, 1985, SOCIAL INDICATORS RE, V16, P73 KRIPPENDORF K, 1980, CONTENT ANAL INTRO I LONG JS, 1981, AM SOCIOL REV, V46, P422 MORSE D, 1966, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVA OGBURN WD, 1938, SOCIAL CHANGE YANKELOVICH D, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V17, P95 NR 21 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1987 VL 31 IS 4 BP 335 EP 345 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K1788 UT ISI:A1987K178800003 ER PT J AU CHOI, HS TI MOBILIZATION OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES FOR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article CR *FED KOR IND, 1979, SURV TRENDS IND TECH *S K TECH DEV CORP, 1985 1986 ANN REP *S K TECH DEV CORP, 1985 ANN REP *S K TECHN FIN COR, 1985 ANN REP CHOI HS, 1983, BASES SCI TECHNOLOGY, CH1 CHOI HS, 1986, TECHNOLOGY DEV DEV C, CH4 KANE J, 1975, DEV BANKING LEE CO, 1980, STUDY REVOLVING FUND NR 8 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1987 VL 31 IS 4 BP 347 EP 358 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K1788 UT ISI:A1987K178800004 ER PT J AU SUBRAMANIAN, SK TI TECHNOLOGY, PRODUCTIVITY, AND ORGANIZATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SUBRAMANIAN, SK, ASIAN PROD ORG,AOYAMA DAI ICHI MANSIONS,4-14 AKASAKA 8 CHOME,MINATO KU,TOKYO 107,JAPAN. CR 1985, JAPAN EC J *AS PROD ORG, 1986, APPL ALT EN SOURC SE *AS PROD ORG, 1987, MAN TECHN INN *AS PROD ORG, 1987, REP 1987 TOP MAN FOR *EUR PROD AG, 1958, OBJ PLANS PROD MOV *JAP PROD CTR, 1985, PRACT HDB PROD LAB S BARUCH J, 1980, DIMENSIONS PRODUCTIV, V1 BRIANAS J, 1986, INT MANAGEMENT, V10, P88 CHAMPINE G, CITED INDIRECTLY CHOI HS, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P225 CHOI HS, 1987, APO BASIC RES, V3 DOGRAMACI A, 1986, PRODUCTIVITY ANAL RA FOSTER R, 1986, INT MANAG, V41, P72 GROSSMAN LE, 1987, PRODUCTIVITY PEOPLE HIRONO R, 1985, IMPROVING PRODUCTIVI MCGALEN B, CITED INDIRECTLY MIYAI J, 1986, FIJI WORKSHOP NATION MORITA A, 1987, MADE JAPAN MORITANI M, 1983, ADV TECHNOLOGY JAPAN NORIHIKO S, IN PRESS IN CO PRODU PETERS JT, 1987, PRODUCTIVITY PEOPLE SHYU TM, IN PRESS PRODUCTIVIT SIGURDSON J, 1987, PRODUCTIVITY PEOPLE SUBRAMANIAN SK, 1986, CONSULTANCY DEV SUBRAMANIAN SK, 1987, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V31, P87 TERUO Y, 1987, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG THOMAS PJ, 1986, INT PRODUCTIVITY C T VANDERSLICE TA, 1980, DIMENSIONS PRODUCTIV, V2 NR 28 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD JUL PY 1987 VL 31 IS 4 BP 359 EP 371 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA K1788 UT ISI:A1987K178800005 ER PT J AU HOMER, JB TI A DIFFUSION-MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO EVOLVING MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP HOMER, JB, UNIV SO CALIF,ISSM,DEPT SYST SCI,SYST DYNAM LAB,ROOM 109,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR *NAT AC SCI, 1979, STUD DIFF EQ EMB TEC *US SEN, 1982, FRAUD WAST AB MED PA BANTA HD, 1981, RATIONAL TECHNOLOGY BARTLETT JG, 1972, NEW ENGL J MED, V287, P1006 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BLUME S, 1980, RES RES CHOKSHI AB, 1981, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V246, P754 COLEMAN J, 1966, MED INNOVATION DIFFU FINEBERG HV, 1979, NEW ENGL J MED, V301, P1086 FINEBERG HV, 1985, ASSESSING MED TECHNO FINKELSTEIN SN, 1983, 141983 MIT SLOAN SCH FINKELSTEIN SN, 1984, R&D MANAGE, V14, P175 FLOYD AL, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA FORRESTER JW, 1961, IND DYNAMICS FORRESTER JW, 1980, TIMS STUDIES MANAGEM, V14, P209 FRIEDMAN GD, 1976, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V236, P2498 GRAHAM AL, 1977, SYSTEM DYNAMICS METH GREENBERG A, 1982, PERMANENT PACEMAKERS HOMER JB, 1981, 1981 P INT SYST DYN HOMER JB, 1983, 1983 P INT SYST DYN HOMER JB, 1983, THESIS MIT CAMBRIDGE HURTER AR, 1978, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V11, P197 KALISH S, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION KALISH S, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P194 KLEINMANN AJ, 1980, THESIS MIT CAMBRIDGE LITTLE JDC, 1979, OPER RES, V27, P629 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MARQUIS D, 1969, SUCCESSFUL IND INNOV MORECROFT JDW, 1983, OMEGA-INT J MANAGE S, V11, P131 RICHARDSON G, 1981, SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODE ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION ROSENBERG N, 1977, DDC0812N STANF U MAN RUSSELL LB, 1977, J HUM RESOUR, V12, P482 SANATANI S, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P313 SCHERLIS L, 1983, AM J CARDIOL, V51, P131 SCHMOOKLER J, 1962, J ECON HIST, V22, P1 SCHROEDER SA, 1979, MED TECHNOLOGY CULPR SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V9, P89 SHARIF MN, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P301 TEDESCO JF, 1974, ANN INTERNAL MED, V81, P429 TULLIS JLL, 1981, APOCALYPSE MAYBE BUY ZALTMAN G, 1972, THEORETICAL PERSPECT NR 43 TC 15 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1987 VL 31 IS 3 BP 197 EP 218 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H8028 UT ISI:A1987H802800001 ER PT J AU HUSS, WR HONTON, EJ TI ALTERNATIVE METHODS FOR DEVELOPING BUSINESS SCENARIOS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 BATTELLE MEM INST,BASICS SCENARIO DEV PROGRAM,COLUMBUS,OH 43201. RP HUSS, WR, XENERGY INC,UTIL CONSULTING SERV,60 MALL RD,BURLINGTON,MA 01803. CR *CTR FUT RES, 1983, MAY AN ALT FUT BELL DE, 1986, SCENARIO ANAL DUVAL A, 1975, PORTRAITS COMPLEXITY, P202 ENZER S, 1980, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V17, P141 ENZER S, 1980, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V17, P211 FORESTER JW, 1981, IND DYNAMICS GORDON TJ, 1968, FUTURES, V2, P100 GORDON TJ, 1974, TREND IMPACT ANAL NE HONTON EJ, 1985, 44 BATT COL DIV EC P LINNEMAN RE, 1983, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V12, P94 MILLETT SM, 1986, 52 BATT COL DIV EC P OGILVY JA, CONSTRUCT USE SCENAR STOVER JG, 1980, TIMS STUDIES MANAGEM, V14, P189 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V62, P73 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P139 NR 15 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1987 VL 31 IS 3 BP 219 EP 238 PG 20 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H8028 UT ISI:A1987H802800002 ER PT J AU SHAW, BT TI TECHNOLOGY AND MILITARY CRITERIA - BROADENING THE THEORY OF INNOVATION SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 TECHNOL MANAGEMENT,PHILADELPHIA,PA. CR 1952, DUPONT AUTOBIOGRAPHY 1985, DEFENSE MONITOR, V14 *NAT RES COUNC COM, 1983, US MACH TOOL IND DEF *US C, 1985, FED FIN SUPP HIGH TE *US DEP COMM, 1983, ASS US COMP HIGH TEC *US DEP COMM, 1984, COMP ASS US CIV AIRC ADAMS G, 1981, POLITICS DEFENSE CON AITKEN HGJ, 1980, TAYLORISM WATERTOWN ALLARD D, 1959, THESIS GEORGETOWN U BALDWIN WL, 1981, IMPACT DEP DEFENSE P BALL N, 1983, STRUCTURE DEFENSE IN BOLTON RE, 1966, DEFENSE PURCHASES RE BRAUN E, 1978, REVOLUTION MINIATURE BROOKE MZ, 1984, CENTRALIZATION AUTON CARROLL P, 1983, MUSES FLEE HITLER CU, P189 CARTER AB, 1984, SCI AM, V252, P32 CHASEN SH, 1981, MECH ENG NOV, P32 COOLING BF, 1970, GRAY STEEL BLUE WATE COPLEY FB, 1923, FW TAYLOR FATHER SCI CRAIG PP, 1985, FUTURIST, P25 DEGRASSE RW, 1983, MILITARY EXPANSION E DUMAS LL, 1984, MILITARIZATION HIGH DUPUY RE, 1970, ENCY MILITARY HIST 3 DUPUY TN, 1980, EVOLUTION WEAPONS WA ENGELBRECHT HC, 1934, MERCHANTS DEATH STUD FISCHER F, 1967, GERMANYS AIM 1ST WOR FOULOIS BD, 1960, WRIGHT BROTHERS ASTR FREEMAN C, 1982, UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNIC FREEMAN C, 1984, LONG WAVES WORLD EC GANSLER JS, 1980, DEFENSE IND GORDON S, 1984, EC CONVERSION REVITA GRUSKY O, 1964, NEW MILITARY CHANGIN, P83 HABER S, 1964, EFFICIENCY UPLIFT SC HAUSTEIN HD, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P53 HORGAN J, 1985, IEEE SPECTRUM, V22, P84 HUGHES TP, 1969, PAST PRESENT, V44, P106 HUNTINGTON SP, 1957, SOLDIER STATE KENNETT L, 1982, HIST STRATEGIC BOMBI KEVLES DJ, 1977, PHYSICISTS LEITENBERG M, 1973, INT SOCIAL SCI J, V25, P336 LOW W, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V26, P355 MANSFIELD E, 1968, DEFENSE SCI PUBLIC P MARK H, 1982, TECHNOLOGY SOC, V4, P15 MARSH RT, 1983, VITAL SPEECHES DAY, V49, P687 MCNEILL WH, 1982, PURSUIT POWER TECHNO MELMAN S, 1974, PERMANENT WAR EC AM MELMAN S, 1983, PROFITS PRODUCTION MERTON RK, 1938, OSIRIS, V4, P543 MISA T, 1985, MILITARY ENTERPRISE, P253 MOWERY DC, 1982, INSIDE BLACK BOX TEC, P163 MOWSHOWITZ A, 1976, CONQUEST WILL MULLINS JP, 1983, VITAL SPEECHES DAY, V50, P134 MUMFORD L, 1934, TECHNICS CIVILIZATIO NEF JU, 1950, WAR HUMAN PROGR NELSON D, 1980, FW TAYLOR RISE SCI M NELSON KL, 1972, MILITARY IND COMPLEX NELSON RR, 1977, RES POLICY, V6, P36 NOBLE DF, 1984, FORCES PRODUCTION SO OLVERY LD, 1983, IND CAPACITY DEFENSE PERRY WJ, 1982, TECHNOLOGY REV JUL, P27 RANDELL B, 1973, ORIGINS DIGITAL COMP RICHARDSON LF, 1960, STATISTICS DEADLY QU ROE JW, 1916, ENGLISH AM TOOL BUIL ROSENBERG N, 1963, J ECON HIST, V23, P414 ROSS D, 1959, MECHANICAL ENG, V81, P70 RUSSETT BM, 1970, WHAT PRICE VIGILANCE SAHAL D, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P213 SCHUMPETER JA, 1939, BUSINESS CYCLES THEO SEN G, 1984, MILITARY ORIGINS IND SMITH BLR, 1975, NEW POLITICAL EC PUB SMITH MR, 1977, WAR BUSINESS AM SOC, P24 SMITH MR, 1985, MILITARY ENTERPRISE STURCHIO JL, 1984, RES MANAGE, V27, P10 TAYLOR FW, 1916, B TAYLOR SOC, V2, P7 TAYLOR FW, 1947, SCI MANAGEMENT COMPR TIRMAN J, 1984, MILITARIZATION HIGH UDIS B, 1973, EC CONSEQUENCE REDUC VALLEY BL, 1985, VITAL SPEECHES 0301, P294 VONCLAUSEWITZ C, 1976, WAR WILSON A, 1968, BOMB COMPUTER WINTER JM, 1975, WAR EC DEV WOODBURY RS, 1960, TECHNOL CULT, V1, P235 YORK HF, 1977, B ATOM SCI, V33, P13 NR 83 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1987 VL 31 IS 3 BP 239 EP 256 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H8028 UT ISI:A1987H802800003 ER PT J AU SETTY, KPS PADMANABHAN, S NATARAJAN, R TI A NATIONAL ENERGY-CONSERVATION POLICY DELPHI - REPORT OF THE FINDINGS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 INDIAN INST TECHNOL,THERMODYNAM & COMBUST ENGN LAB,MADRAS 600036,TAMIL NADU,INDIA. NATL PROD COUNCIL,NEW DELHI,INDIA. PES COLL ENGN,MECH ENGN,MANDYA 571401,INDIA. CR BARDECKI MJ, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P281 JILLSON IA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI LINSTONE HA, 1975, DELPHI METHOD TECHNI SCHNEIDER JB, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P481 TUROFF M, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P149 YEHEZKEL D, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P3 NR 6 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1987 VL 31 IS 3 BP 257 EP 267 PG 11 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H8028 UT ISI:A1987H802800004 ER PT J AU ONISHI, A TI GLOBAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DISPLACED PERSONS - INTERLINKAGES OF ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT, PEACE AND HUMAN-RIGHTS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ONISHI, A, SOKA UNIV,INST APPL ECON RES,HACHIOJI,TOKYO 192,JAPAN. CR *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1979, INT FAC FUT MAST PRO BREMER SA, 1985, GLOBUS MODEL HIST ST BRUCKMANN G, 1980, IIASA P SERIES, V9, P91 FORESTER JW, 1971, WORLD DYNAMICS KLEIN LR, 1982, PERSPECT COMPUT, P4 LEONTIEF W, 1977, FUTURE WORLD EC MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MESAROVIC M, 1974, MULTILEVEL COMPUTER, V1 MESAROVIC M, 1974, MULTILEVEL COMPUTER, V2 MESAROVIC M, 1974, MULTILEVEL COMPUTER, V3 MESAROVIC M, 1974, MULTILEVEL COMPUTER, V4 MESAROVIC M, 1974, MULTILEVEL COMPUTER, V5 MESAROVIC M, 1974, MULTILEVEL COMPUTER, V6 ONISHI A, 1986, J POLICY MODEL, V8, P181 NR 14 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAY PY 1987 VL 31 IS 3 BP 269 EP 299 PG 31 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H8028 UT ISI:A1987H802800005 ER PT J AU MICHAEL, DN ANDERSON, WT TI NORMS IN CONFLICT AND CONFUSION - 6 STORIES IN SEARCH OF AN AUTHOR SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MICHIGAN,PLANNING & PUBL POLICY,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. CR ANDERSON WT, 1986, GOVERN EVOLUTION FUR BERRY T, 1978, ANIMA WIN CAPRA F, 1982, TURNING POINT MICHAEL D, 1973, LEARNING PLAN PLANNI MICHAEL D, 1983, RETHINKING LIBERALIS MICHAEL DN, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P347 POLANYI M, 1966, TACIT DIMENSION TOULMIN S, 1982, RETURN COSMOLOGY VICKERS G, 1965, ART JUDGMENT NR 9 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 2 BP 107 EP 115 PG 9 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H1854 UT ISI:A1987H185400001 ER PT J AU GANDER, JP TI UNIVERSITY INDUSTRY RESEARCH LINKAGES AND KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS - A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP GANDER, JP, UNIV UTAH,DEPT ECON,SALT LAKE CITY,UT 84112. CR *NAT SCI BOARD, 1982, UN IND RES REL *NAT SCI BOARD, 1985, SCI IND 1985 REP GANDER JP, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P329 GANDER JP, 1986, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V25, P33 JOHNSON ED, 1984, COOPERATIVE SCI NATI, V1 NELSON RR, 1986, ANN EC REV MAY, P186 WAN HY, 1971, TRADE BALANCE PAYMEN, P261 NR 7 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 2 BP 117 EP 130 PG 14 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H1854 UT ISI:A1987H185400002 ER PT J AU COATE, MB URI, N TI A SIMULTANEOUS-EQUATIONS STUDY OF RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT INTENSITY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 FED TRADE COMMISS,BUR ECON,DIV IND ANAL,WASHINGTON,DC 20580. CR *US DEP LAB, 1983, UNP IMP DAT *US FED TRAD COMM, 1982, ANN LIN BUS REP 1977 ANGELMAR R, 1985, J IND ECON, V34, P69 BLOCH H, 1974, J POLITICAL EC, V82, P267 BROGAN R, 1985, ABSENCE ANY SIMPLE R CATTO V, 1980, BUSIN EC, V18, P39 CHAPPELL WF, 1985, SOUTH ECON J, V51, P1031 CLARKE R, 1984, J IND ECON, V32, P435 COATE M, 1986, J BEHAVIORAL EC, V12, P196 COATE M, 1986, J BEHAVIORAL EC, V12, P347 COMANOR WS, 1967, REV ECON STAT, V49, P423 CURRY B, 1983, J IND ECON, V31, P203 DEMSETZ H, 1973, J LAW ECON, V16, P1 DORFMAN R, 1954, AM ECON REV, V44, P826 FISHER FM, 1983, AM ECON REV, V73, P82 GRABOWSKI HG, 1968, J POLITICAL EC, V76, P292 GREER DF, 1971, SO EC J, V38, P19 LEVY D, 1985, J IND ECON, V34, P55 MARTIN S, 1979, BELL J ECON, V10, P638 MARTIN S, 1979, SO EC J, V45, P471 MUELLER WF, 1974, REV ECON STAT, V56, P511 MUKHOPADHYAY A, SO EC J, V52, P141 ORNSTEIN S, 1977, SO EC J, V43, P892 PAGOULATOS E, 1981, SOUTHERN ECON J, V47, P728 RAVENSCRAFT DJ, 1983, REV ECON STAT, V65, P22 SAHEL D, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V24, P1 SCHERER F, 1980, IND MARKET STRUCTURE SCHERER F, 1983, SO EC J, V49, P221 SCHUMPETER J, 1950, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM SHEPHERD W, 1979, EC IND ORG STRICKLAND AD, 1976, J POLITICAL EC, V84, P1109 WEISS L, 1971, FRONTIERS QUANTITATI, P362 WEISS L, 1974, IND CONCENTRATION NE, P184 NR 33 TC 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 2 BP 131 EP 142 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H1854 UT ISI:A1987H185400003 ER PT J AU FRANKE, RH TI TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION AND PRODUCTIVITY DECLINE - COMPUTER INTRODUCTION IN THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP FRANKE, RH, LOYOLA COLL,SELLINGER SCH BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT,BALTIMORE,MD 21210. CR 1986, FORTUNE, V113, P10 *AM PROD CTR, 1984, MULT INP PROD IND, V5 *US COUNC EC ADV, 1985, EC REP PRES 1985 BAILY MN, 1986, SCIENCE, V234, P443 BRAND H, 1982, MON LABOR REV, V105, P19 CALHOUN CJ, 1981, SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS, V9, P397 CRAFTS NFR, 1983, ECON HIST REV, V36, P177 CRAFTS NFR, 1985, J ECON HIST, V45, P139 CRON WL, 1983, INFORM MANAGE, V6, P171 DANZIGER JN, 1985, SOC SCI QUART, V66, P3 DEANE P, 1965, 1ST IND REVOLUTION DENISON EL, 1984, INT COMP PRODUCTIVIT ERNST ML, 1985, INFORMATION TECHNOLO FRANKE RH, 1978, AM SOCIOL REV, V43, P623 FRANKE RH, 1980, AM SOCIOL REV, V45, P1006 FRANKE RH, 1983, TSUKUBA C PROBLEMS B GROSSMAN ES, 1982, COMP PRODUCTIVITY DY HARLEY CK, 1982, J ECON HIST, V42, P267 HAUSTEIN HD, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V22, P53 ILAN Y, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P183 KENDRICK JW, 1961, PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS KENDRICK JW, 1976, 698 C BOARD REP KENDRICK JW, 1980, PRODUCTIVITY US TREN LEONTIEF WW, 1986, FUTURE IMPACT AUTOMA LINDERT PH, 1983, ECON HIST REV, V36, P1 LINDERT PH, 1985, J ECON HIST, V45, P145 MELMAN S, 1983, PROFITS PRODUCTION MELMAN S, 1986, TECHNOL REV, V89, P62 RALSTON A, 1983, ENCY COMPUTER SCI EN RASLER KA, 1983, WORLD POLIT, V35, P489 ROESSNER JD, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P203 ROSEN S, 1983, ENCY COMPUTER SCI EN SCHWARZ LD, 1985, ECON HIST REV, V38, P24 SNOW CP, 1966, SCIENCE, V151, P650 STRASSMANN PA, 1985, INFORMATION PAYOFF T VONTUNZELMANN GN, 1981, EC HIST BRITAIN 1700, V1 WILLIAMSON JG, 1984, J ECON HIST, V44, P687 WILLIAMSON JG, 1985, POPUL DEV REV, V2, P171 NR 38 TC 17 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 2 BP 143 EP 154 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H1854 UT ISI:A1987H185400004 ER PT J AU MARCHETTI, C TI THE FUTURE OF NATURAL-GAS - A DARWINIAN ANALYSIS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP MARCHETTI, C, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. CR GROSSLING BF, 1976, SURVEY WORLD PETROLE MARCHETTI C, 1973, 1ST INT C TECHN ASS MARCHETTI C, 1979, ENERGY, V4, P1107 MARCHETTI C, 1979, RR7913 INT I APPL SY MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 NR 5 TC 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 2 BP 155 EP 171 PG 17 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H1854 UT ISI:A1987H185400005 ER PT J AU UDWADIA, FE TI INTERNATIONAL-COOPERATION IN SPACE - AN ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC RISKS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP UDWADIA, FE, UNIV SO CALIF,SCH ENGN,364 DENNY RES BLDG,UNIV PK,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR HARVEY ML, 1969, MAN MOON IMPACT SCI SATO R, 1980, REPORT ANAL EFFECTS NR 2 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 2 BP 173 EP 188 PG 16 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H1854 UT ISI:A1987H185400006 ER PT J AU DEGREENE, KB TI UNITED-STATES AND USSR ADAPTATION TO A TURBULENT-ENVIRONMENTAL FIELD OF FORCES - AVOIDANCE OF CATASTROPHIC FLIP TO THE EMERGENCY STATE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV SO CALIF,SYST MANAGEMENT,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089. CR 1982, IEEE SPECTRUM, V19 *ENC BRIT INC, 1986, BRIT BOOK YEAR ADAMS RN, 1982, SELF ORG DISSIPATIVE, P116 BABUROGLU ON, 1986, 30TH P ANN M SOC GEN, V1, F19 CHESTNUT H, 1984, IEEE TECHNOLOGY SOC, V3, P12 CHESTNUT H, 1985, 1985 P IEEE INT C SY, P483 DEGREENE KB, 1978, 1978 P INT C CYB SOC, V1, P338 DEGREENE KB, 1978, BEHAV SCI, V23, P1 DEGREENE KB, 1981, BEHAV SCI, V26, P103 DEGREENE KB, 1982, ADAPTIVE ORG ANTICIP DEGREENE KB, 1982, IEEE T SYSTEMS MAN C, V12, P686 DEGREENE KB, 1984, SUPPLEMENTAL WAYS IM, P141 DEGREENE KB, 1985, SYSTEMS INQUIRING, V2, P1051 DEGREENE KB, 1986, 30TH P ANN M SOC GEN, V2, I1 DEGREENE KB, 1986, IEEE AEROSPACE ELECT, V1, P13 DEGREENE KB, 1986, SYSTEMS ANAL REQUIRE DEVRIES MK, 1985, NEUROTIC ORG EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P21 EMERY FE, 1973, SOCIAL ECOLOGY CONTE JABLONSKI D, 1986, SCIENCE, V231, P129 LEWIN R, 1986, SCIENCE, V231, P219 MAY RM, 1976, NATURE, V261, P459 METCALFE JL, 1974, HUM RELAT, V27, P639 SUGARMAN R, 1983, IEEE SPECTRUM, V20, P36 WOLF C, 1985, SCIENCE, V230, P997 NR 25 TC 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD APR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 2 BP 189 EP 200 PG 12 SC Business; Planning & Development GA H1854 UT ISI:A1987H185400007 ER PT J AU KALLIS, MJ TI CAS - THE REBIRTH OF THE INDUSTRIAL-SALES FORCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP KALLIS, MJ, SAN JOSE STATE UNIV,SCH BUSINESS,SAN JOSE,CA 95192. CR 1982, AM METAL MARKET 1122, P90 1982, MODERN MATERIAL 0106, P64 ANDREWS AM, 1984, AUTOMOTIVE IND JAN, P36 ASBRAND D, 1984, ELECTRONIC DESI 0405, P324 BAIN J, 1968, IND ORG BORRELL J, 1984, DIGITAL DESIGN JAN, P74 BUCKLIN LP, 1966, MARKETING CHANNEL CO, P67 CANNON JT, 1972, CONCEPTS CORPORATE E, P263 CARD D, 1985, ELECTRONIC BUSI 0101, P164 COOPER AC, 1967, WIN P C AMA, P56 DENENBERG A, 1984, OFFICE ADM AUTOM APR, P34 EDWARDS R, 1984, MENTOR GRAPHICS CORP, P1 EWING D, 1967, HARVARD BUSINESS JUL, P45 GARRY FW, 1982, ENG MANAGEMENT INT GAZDA G, 1982, PUBLIC POLICY GLOVER JD, PLANNING STRATEGY, P249 GODIWALLAY, 1980, LONG RANGE PLANN OCT GOODENOUGH F, 1984, ELECTRONIC DESI 0517, P51 GREENFIELD AJ, 1982, INTERVENTIONAL RADIO, P49 HROMADKO GF, 1984, CAE IND STRUCTURE CO, P1 JAIN S, 1984, LONG RANGE PLANN APR, P117 JAIN SC, 1985, MARKET PLANNING STRA JOHNSON J, 1982, DATAMATION FEB, P113 JOLOSON MA, 1972, BUSINESS HORIZON OCT, P87 KEEBLER J, 1983, TOOLING PRODUCTI APR, P15 KIDD JD, 1984, AM METAL MARKET 0813 KLEE K, 1982, DATAMATION FEB, P110 KLEINMAN N, 1984, COMPUTER ELECTRO AUG, P25 LERRO J, 1982, DESIGN NEWS 1108, P137 LERRO J, 1982, DESIGN NEWS 1122, P84 LOTSHAW E, 1970, J MARKETING JAN, P22 LOVE M, 1983, FORBES 1121 NANUS B, 1981, WORLD FUTURE SOC MAR NEUBAUER FF, 1977, LONG RANGE PLANN APR, P13 SCHUBERT R, 1983, BUSINESS MARKETI APR, P63 TERESKO J, 1984, IND WEEK 0917, P111 THOMAS P, 1980, LONG RANGE PLANN FEB THORNTON J, 1982, AM METAL MARKET 1206, P9 WALLACE R, 1983, ELECTRONIC NEWS 0109 WEBER DM, 1984, ELECTRONICS 0712, P89 WEIDENBAUM ML, 1978, FUTURE BUSINESS, P50 NR 41 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 1 BP 5 EP 17 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G6430 UT ISI:A1987G643000002 ER PT J AU CHEN, K TI GENERATION DYNAMICS IN COMPUTER-INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MICHIGAN,PROGRAM PHD URBAN TECHNOL & ENVIRONM PLANNING,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. RP CHEN, K, UNIV MICHIGAN,DEPT ELECT ENGN & COMP SCI,EECS BLDG,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. CR ASCHER W, 1978, FORECASTING APPRAISA CHEN K, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P26 CHEN K, 1986, EMPLOYMENT EFFECT HI CROWLEY JL, 1984, CMURITR841 CARN MELL ENGELBERGER JF, 1972 S ROB FEIGENBAUM EA, 1983, 5TH GENERATION ARTIF FINLAY PA, 1982, 3RD P INT C ASS AUT HAN I, 1985, SEP ITI CRIM SEM ANN HARRISON WL, 1985, COMPUTERS INFORMATIO HATVANY J, 1984, ANN CIRP, P33 HUNDY BB, 1984, ANN CIRP, P33 KOCHHAR DS, COMMUNICATION MARTIN J, 1985, 4TH GENERATION LANGU, V1 MARTINO J, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MILLER RK, 1985, 5TH GENERATION COMPU RUFF KE, 1985, COMMUNICATION SKINNER W, 1980, ASME PED1 TURN R, 1974, COMPUTERS 1980S WISE KD, 1980, MICROCOMPUTERS TECHN WOMACK J, 1984, TECHNOLOGY REV OCT NR 20 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 1 BP 19 EP 26 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G6430 UT ISI:A1987G643000003 ER PT J AU BODGER, PS TAY, HS TI LOGISTIC AND ENERGY SUBSTITUTION MODELS FOR ELECTRICITY FORECASTING - A COMPARISON USING NEW-ZEALAND CONSUMPTION DATA SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MINIST ENERGY,DIV ELECT,WELLINGTON,NEW ZEALAND. RP BODGER, PS, UNIV CANTERBURY,DEPT ELECT & ELECTR ENGN,CHRISTCHURCH 1,NEW ZEALAND. CR 1980, WORLD ENERGY C *CIGR WORK GRP 31, 1980, EL EN LOAD CURV FOR *N Z COMM REV POW, 1977, TREAS REP *N Z EL DEP, 1976, ANN REP *N Z MIN EN, REP EL SECT FOR COMM BAINES JT, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V26, P26 BLAKELEY PW, 1974, NZ ENERGY C BOAS AH, 1963, CHEM ENG 0204, P105 BODGER PS, IN PRESS TECHNOLOGIC BOSSERT RW, 1977, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V10, P357 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 MACKENZIE EB, 1966, NZ ENG, V21, P478 MACKENZIE EB, 1969, NZ ENG MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARCHETTI C, 1971, TECHNOL FOR, V3, P75 MARTINO JP, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P77 NAKICENOVIC N, 1979, RR7912 INT I APPL SY PEARL R, 1924, STUDIES HUMAN BIOL PROCTOR R, 1979, P SEMINAR ENERGY FOR NR 19 TC 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 1 BP 27 EP 48 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G6430 UT ISI:A1987G643000004 ER PT J AU LEE, JC LU, KW TI ON A FAMILY OF DATA-BASED TRANSFORMED MODELS USEFUL IN FORECASTING TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTIONS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP LEE, JC, BELL COMMUN RES INC,STAT RES GRP,TECH STAFF,435 S ST,MORRISTOWN,NJ 07960. CR *US BUR CENS, 1976, HIST STAT US COL TIM ABRAHAM B, 1983, STATISTICAL METHODS ANDERSON TW, 1984, INTRO MULTIVARIATE S BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BOX GEP, 1964, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V26, P211 DRAPER NR, 1981, APPLIED REGRESSION A DURBIN J, 1950, BIOMETRIKA, V37, P409 DURBIN J, 1951, BIOMETRIKA, V38, P159 EASINGWOOD C, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FLOYD A, 1962, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P95 GOMPERTZ B, 1825, PHILOS T ROY SOC LON, V115, P513 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P247 STAPLETON E, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P325 SWED FS, 1943, ANN MATH STAT, V14, P66 WILKS SS, 1938, ANN MATH STAT, V9, P60 NR 18 TC 22 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 1 BP 61 EP 78 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G6430 UT ISI:A1987G643000006 ER PT J AU DIETZ, T TI METHODS FOR ANALYZING DATA FROM DELPHI PANELS - SOME EVIDENCE FROM A FORECASTING STUDY SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP DIETZ, T, GEORGE MASON UNIV,DEPT SOCIOL & ANTHROPOL,FAIRFAX,VA 22030. CR ANDREWS D, 1972, ROBUST ESTIMATES LOC DIXON W, 1977, BMDP77 FISCHHOFF B, 1982, J FORECASTING, V1, P155 FREEDMAN D, 1983, FESTSCHRIFT EL LEHMA HUCKFELDT V, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V6, P75 PARENTE FJ, 1984, J FORECASTING, V3, P173 NR 6 TC 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 1 BP 79 EP 85 PG 7 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G6430 UT ISI:A1987G643000007 ER PT J AU SUBRAMANIAN, SK TI PLANNING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR NATIONAL-DEVELOPMENT - THE INDIAN EXPERIENCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SUBRAMANIAN, SK, ASIAN PROD ORG,DIV RES & PLANNING,TOKYO,JAPAN. CR *AS PROD ORG, 1984, LAB MAN CONS MECH *AS PROD ORG, 1986, ROL TOP MAN TECHN IN *INDIA DEP SCI TEC, 1983, TECHN POL STAT *INDIA DEP SCI TEC, 1985, LIST APPR TECHN MISS *INDIA DEP SCI TEC, 1986, ANN REP 1985 86 *INDIA GOVT, 1958, SCI POL RES *INDIA NAT COMM SC, 1973, APPR SCI TECHN PLAN *INDIA NAT COMM SC, 1974, SCI TECHN PLAN 1974, V1 *INDIA NAT COMM SC, 1974, SCI TECHN PLAN 1974, V2 *INDIA PLANN COMM, 1985, 7TH 5 YEAR PLAN, CH17 AIYAGIRI VR, 1981, POLICY FORMULATION S KURAKAZU Y, 1983, PRODUCTIVITY MEASURE NAYDAMMA Y, 1985, MACROMICRO LINKAGES PARK JH, 1985, APO S ORG HIGHER PRO SUBRAMANIAN SK, 1982, PEOPLE ORIENTED APPR SUBRAMANIAN SK, 1986, CONSULTANCY DEV, V8 TAKEUCHI H, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS JAN NR 17 TC 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD MAR PY 1987 VL 31 IS 1 BP 87 EP 101 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G6430 UT ISI:A1987G643000008 ER PT J AU COATES, JF TI 20-20 VISION - FORCES AT WORK SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP COATES, JF, JF COATES INC,3738 KANAWHA ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20015. NR 0 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1986 VL 30 IS 4 BP 305 EP 312 PG 8 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G2883 UT ISI:A1986G288300001 ER PT J AU SKIADAS, CH TI INNOVATION DIFFUSION-MODELS EXPRESSING ASYMMETRY AND OR POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY INFLUENCING FORCES SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NATL TECH UNIV ATHENS,DEPT CHEM ENGN PROC & SYST ENGN,GR-147 ATHENS,GREECE. CR AYRES RU, 1969, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA AYRES RU, 1984, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V25, P297 BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BLACKMAN AW, 1970, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V2, P61 BLACKMAN AW, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P441 BRETSCHNEIDER SI, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P129 EASINGWOOD C, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P199 FISHELSON G, 1984, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V26, P299 FISHER JC, 1971, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V3, P75 FLOYD A, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA GREGG JV, 1964, ICI MONOGRAPH, V1 HARVEY AC, 1984, J OPER RES SOC, V35, P641 HAYNES KE, 1977, SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNI, V11, P25 LARSON E, 1986, SCI AM, V254, P24 LAWRENCE KD, 1981, NEW PRODUCT FORECAST LAWTON SB, 1979, ED ADM Q, V15, P19 MAHAJAN V, 1977, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V24, P12 MAHAJAN V, 1984, MANAGE SCI, V30, P1389 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MAKRIDAKIS S, 1983, FORECASTING METHODS MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 MARMOLINERO C, 1980, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V31, P141 MARTINO JP, 1972, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V4, P77 MARTINO JP, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA MEADE N, 1985, J OPER RES SOC, V36, P1103 OLIVER FR, 1964, APPLIED STATISTICS, V13, P57 OLIVER FR, 1969, ECONOMETRICA, V37, P144 OLIVER FR, 1981, J OPERATIONAL RES SO, V32, P499 PINDYCK RS, 1981, ECONOMETRIC MODELS E POZNANSKI KZ, 1983, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V23, P305 SAHAL D, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P277 SAHAL DA, 1975, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V7, P81 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SHARIF MN, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P247 SHARIF MN, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P63 SHARIF MN, 1984, IEEE T ENG MANAGE, V31, P76 SKIADAS C, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V27, P39 STONE R, 1980, ECON J, V90, P593 YOUNG P, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P263 NR 40 TC 14 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1986 VL 30 IS 4 BP 313 EP 330 PG 18 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G2883 UT ISI:A1986G288300002 ER PT J AU MAHAJAN, V SHARMA, S TI A SIMPLE ALGEBRAIC ESTIMATION PROCEDURE FOR INNOVATION DIFFUSION-MODELS OF NEW PRODUCT ACCEPTANCE SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV S CAROLINA,MKT,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. RP MAHAJAN, V, SO METHODIST UNIV,EDWIN L COX SCH BUSINESS,DALLAS,TX 75275. CR BASS FM, 1969, MANAGE SCI, V15, P215 BRETSCHNEIDER SI, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P129 EASINGWOOD CJ, 1983, MARKET SCI, V2, P273 FLOYD A, 1968, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, P95 FOURT LA, 1960, J MARKETING, V25, P31 HEELER RM, 1980, MANAGE SCI, V26, P1007 JEULAND A, 1981, PARSIMONIOUS MODELS LAWRENCE KD, 1981, NEW PRODUCT FORECAST, P529 LAWTON SB, 1979, ED ADM Q, V15, P19 LILIEN GL, 1981, MANAGE SCI, V27, P493 MAHAJAN V, 1985, MODELS INNOVATION DI MAHAJAN V, 1986, INNOVATION DIFFUSION MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 ROBERTS JH, 1984, NEW CONSUMER DURABLE ROGERS EM, 1983, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SCHMITTLEIN D, 1982, MARKET SCI, V1, P57 SHARIF MN, 1976, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V8, P353 SOUDER WE, 1982, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V21, P1 SRINIVASAN V, 1986, MARKET SCI, V5, P169 THOMAS RJ, 1985, J PROD INNOVAT MANAG, V2, P45 TIGERT D, 1981, J MARKETING, V45, P81 NR 21 TC 19 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1986 VL 30 IS 4 BP 331 EP 345 PG 15 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G2883 UT ISI:A1986G288300003 ER PT J AU ILAN, Y TI INTRODUCTION OF MICROCOMPUTERS AT AN ACADEMIC INSTITUTE - STUDY OF AN INNOVATIVE PROCESS SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ILAN, Y, TECHNION ISRAEL INST TECHNOL,FAC IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,IL-32000 HAIFA,ISRAEL. CR CHOW CC, 1967, AM ECON REV, V57, P1117 ILAN Y, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P183 MANSFIELD E, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P741 RANDELS S, 1982, MANAGEMENT SCI, V28, P1421 SHAPIRO SP, 1985, UNIVERSAL COMPUTING NR 5 TC 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1986 VL 30 IS 4 BP 347 EP 359 PG 13 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G2883 UT ISI:A1986G288300004 ER PT J AU SHARIF, MN TI TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN NATIONAL PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article RP SHARIF, MN, UN ECON & SOCIAL COMMISS ASIA & PACIFIC,ASIAN & PACIFIC CTR TRANSFER TECHNOL,POB 115,BANGALORE 560052,INDIA. CR *UN EC SOC COMM AS, 1984, TECHN DEV *UN EC SOC COMM AS, 1985, COUNTR STUD TECHN PO AYRES RU, 1985, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V28, P141 CHOI HS, 1983, BASES SCI TECHNOLOGY CHOI HS, 1984, IND RES LESS DEV COU FREEMAN C, 1982, RECENT DEV SCI TECHN GOULET D, 1977, UNCERTAIN PROMISE LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE NAKAYAMA T, 1984, JAPAN TECHNOLOGY BAS PATEL S, 1984, UNCTAD 1ST 20 YEARS SAGASTI FR, 1979, TECHNOLOGY PLANNING SHARIF MN, IN PRESS HDB TECHNOL SHARIF MN, 1983, MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOG SHARIF MN, 1986, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V29, P119 WEISS C, 1984, TECHNOLOGY FINANCE D NR 15 TC 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC PI NEW YORK PA 655 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0040-1625 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. PD DEC PY 1986 VL 30 IS 4 BP 361 EP 382 PG 22 SC Business; Planning & Development GA G2883 UT ISI:A1986G288300005 ER EF